Presentation Q1 2015

Transcription

Deutsche Post DHL Group
Q1 2015 results
Investor Relations
12 May 2015
AGENDA
1
Q1 2015 Highlights (Frank Appel)
2
Financial results Q1 2015 (Larry Rosen)
DPDHL GROUP | Q1 2015 RESULTS | 12 MAY 2015
PAGE 2
Q1 2015 HIGHLIGHTS
Main operating and financial trends as expected
 Structural volume trends of dynamic parcel growth and letter decline once more
confirmed in PeP with EBIT flat as revenue growth again offset by higher costs
 Express growth momentum fully intact with volume growth feeding further margin
increase to drive another strong EBIT performance and higher cash flow
 Weak Forwarding performance: new management to review transformation
course and focus on operating performance improvement
 Supply Chain restructuring initiatives now in execution phase
 Cash Flow performance showing usual seasonal Q1 pattern with civil servant
pension payment and reversal of year-end effects
2015/16 guidance confirmed
PAGE 3
Q1 REFLECTS TRANSFORMATION & RESTRUCTURING FOCUS
Flat Group EBIT with divisional performance showing the expected mixed picture
REVENUE
EBIT
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Change
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Change
PeP
3,960
4,101
+3.6%
396
399
+0.8%
Express
2,879
3,240
+12.5%
276
332
+20.3%
Forwarding, Freight
3,523
3,789
+7.6%
49
17
-65.3%
Supply Chain
3,506
3,942
+12.4%
85
53
-37.6%
Group
13,569
14,767
+8.8%
727
720
-1.0%
PAGE 4
PeP: GOOD GROWTH ACROSS OUR PARCEL ACTIVITIES
Mail Communication revenue
m EUR
Dialogue Marketing revenue
m EUR
-0.6%
-2.8%
1,738
1,727
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Parcel Germany volumes
m units
563
547
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Parcel Germany revenue
m EUR
+11.0%
+12.1%
1,062
273
246
947
Q1 2014
Business Highlights
Q1 2015
Q1 2014
Parcel Europe revenue1)
DHL eCommerce revenue2)
m EUR
m EUR
Q1 2015
+25.8%
+4.8%
165
173
240
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2014
302
 Mail Communication revenue decline in line with
modest volume decline (-1.7%)
 Dialogue Marketing also with limited revenue
decline as price increases mostly compensate
volume decline (-9.8%)
 Parcel Germany revenue growth outpacing
strong volume growth of 11.0% supported by
price increases
 Robust organic growth in international Parcel
activities in and outside of Europe, also
supported by currency developments
Q1 2015
1) Parcel Europe ex Germany; 2) Parcel outside Europe
PAGE 5
PeP: STRUCTURAL REDUCTION IN PERSONNEL FACTOR COSTS
DUE TO LAUNCH OF NEW PARCEL DELIVERY UNITS
Currently ~6,000
employees
Average wages, in EUR/h
11.9013.20
8.50*
8.50*
17.70
12.79
8.50*
* Legal
minimum
wage
DHL Delivery GmbH Deutsche Post AG
Degree of
outsourcing
100%
100%
95%
33%

Wage costs at Deutsche Post AG significantly above competition

Launch of new Delivery GmbHs reduces gap to competition
12.79 EUR/h instead of 17.70 EUR/h at DPAG
0%
<5%
since average wage level at
PAGE 6
PeP: CONTINUOUSLY OPTIMISING OUR PARCEL SERVICE OFFERING
FIRST MILE: Marketplace offer rebranded and going international
Allyouneed.com
Allyouneedfresh.com
NEW
•
Re-branding of
MeinPaket.de
•
Launch in Poland
LAST MILE: Customer-centric range of delivery options with ~30.000 drop off points
Paketshops
Packstation
Delivery at Home
Delivery boxes
Parcel box
PAGE 7
PeP: DHL eCommerce IS AN ESTABLISHED PLAYER IN THE US
eCommerce: leveraging established US presence
US Domestic distribution capacities
iCart®: fully-landed cost calculator

Consolidation and
sortation of domestic
and international mail
and parcels

#4 US in consolidator
market for USPS
(SmartMail® product)
Adding fulfillment services and products in
collaboration with DHL Supply Chain
 Combining domestic
and international
delivery with best-inclass supply chain
technology
 First dedicated efulfillment warehouse
in Columbus,OH
As part of Strategy 2020 we are moving up the e-commerce value chain
PAGE 8
PeP: BLUE DART PROVIDES BASE FOR DHL eCommerce IN ASIA
Domestic market leader for B2B and B2C parcels in India
Domestic distribution capacities
 South Asia’s
premier express and
integrated package
distribution
company
 52% market share
in domestic air
express in India
Adding fulfillment services and products in
collaboration with DHL Supply Chain
 Blue Dart: front-end,
customer interface
and delivery; DSC:
warehousing and 3PL
 E-fulfillment facility in
Delhi close to go-live
with first global
customer
As part of Strategy 2020 we are moving up the e-commerce value chain
PAGE 9
EXPRESS: STRONG TDI GROWTH CONTINUES
Time Definite International (TDI)1)
Revenues per day in EUR m
Business Highlights
+3.5%
35.2
34.0
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
 Volume growth outpacing revenue growth due to
lower fuel surcharge
 Strong focus on customers and service quality
has driven further market share gains
Time Definite International (TDI)
Shipments per day ‘000s
+7.1%
709
662
Q1 2014
 Strong start into the year with TDI volume growth
of +7.1% ( MEA +12.4%, Europe +10.2%,
Asia/Pacific +5.4%, Americas + 0.6%)
 Growth supported by continuous expansion and
improvement of our leading global network,
including hub investments across all major
geographies
Q1 2015
1) Currency translation impacts are eliminated. Data aggregated with same currency rate
PAGE 10
GLOBAL FORWARDING, FREIGHT: WORKING TOWARDS STABILISATION
Business Highlights
Air freight ‘000s Tons
 Air and ocean volume growth slowing, mainly due
to EMEA and AP regions
+0.3%
935
932
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
 GP/unit stable in Air Freight at low levels and
Ocean Freight GP/unit decline reflect continued
difficult industry environment
 Weak divisional EBIT performance due to
complexity of NFE implementation and associated
organizational changes
Ocean freight ‘000s TEU1)
+2.3%
688
704
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
 New management sets priority on improving
business performance – with unchanged
commitment to transformation based on
comprehensive review
1) Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit
PAGE 11
MANAGEMENT UPDATE ON DHL GLOBAL FORWARDING
Management structure:
 Frank Appel, interim CEO DHL Global Forwarding, Freight
 Renato Chiavi, interim CEO DHL Global Forwarding
 Tobias Meyer, EVP Programs (Transformation)
 Amadou Diallo, CEO DHL Freight (unchanged)
Weak operational performance requires new management to review transformation course
 Unchanged commitment to transformation and to increase the efficiency of our Forwarding business
 Reviewing transformation course based on pilot country and organizational alignment analysis
First priority: renewed and intensive focus on improving underlying business performance
PAGE 12
SUPPLY CHAIN: SOLID PERFORMANCE GIVEN RESTRUCTURING
New signings, EUR m1)
Business Highlights
260
175
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
1) Annualized revenue
 Revenue growth across all verticals, strongest in
Automotive, Consumer and Life Sciences &
Healthcare
Revenue by sector Q1 2015
Others
Williams Lea
Energy
Automotive
10%
Retail
5%
23%
2%
11%
19%
10%
 Sound order intake in Q1 (EUR 260m) especially
in Automotive, Consumer and Life Sciences &
Healthcare
Technology
Consumer
20%
 Further steps taken in implementing Strategy
2020 as presented at last Capital Markets Tutorial
 Restructuring charges cover implementation of
consistent and lean organizational structure,
addressing underperforming business areas as
well as productivity measures
Life Sciences & Healthcare
PAGE 13
DPDHL GROUP STRATEGIC AGENDA
Executing on our short-term agenda…
 Stabilize Forwarding operating performance while reviewing transformation course
 Execute Supply Chain restructuring measures
 Negotiate a wage agreement to ensure future competitiveness especially in Parcel Germany
 Continue investments in successful Express operations
…to build momentum for our long-term strategic and financial goals:
Leveraging growth in e-commerce and emerging markets, based on
unrivalled, diversified business portfolio
Clear roadmap for margin and profit improvement
Flexible balance sheet and improving cash generation underpin payout policy
PAGE 14
AGENDA
1
Q1 2015 Highlights (Frank Appel)
2
Financial results Q1 2015 (Larry Rosen)
PAGE 15
GROUP P&L Q1 2015
EUR m
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Chg.
13,569
14,767
+8.8%
Revenue development supported by currency effects. Organic growth of 2.1%
with growth in all four Divisions / industries. Impact also from lower energy prices
EBIT
727
720
-1.0%
Group EBIT about flat as strong Express growth is offset by transformation and
restructuring related costs in Forwarding and Supply Chain
t/o PeP
396
399
+0.8%
Static operating profit as revenue growth driven by eCommerce - Parcel activities
and price increases is countered by factor cost inflation
Revenue
Management comments
t/o DHL
410
402
-2.0%
Continued strong performance across all major metrics in Express. Declines in
Supply Chain and Forwarding, Freight EBIT mainly reflect planned restructuring
and transformation initiatives
Financial result
-80
-64
+20.0%
Improvement driven by benefits from lower interest rate environment on interest
expense for bonds and provisions as well as FX effects
-123
-115
+6.5%
Tax rate of 17.5% in line with ~18% full-year guidance
Cons. net profit1)
502
495
-1.4%
Net profit and EPS about flat, in line with stable operating profit development
EPS (in EUR)
0.42
0.41
-2.4%
Strong increase in net profit attributable to non-controlling interests
Taxes
1) Attributable to Deutsche Post AG shareholders
PAGE 16
FREE CASH FLOW Q1 2015
Seasonal factors drive usual Free Cash Outflow in Q1
EUR m
Cash from operating activities
before changes in Working Capital
Changes in Working Capital
Net cash from operating activities
after changes in Working Capital
Net Capex
Net M&A
Net Interest
Free Cash Flow
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
793
737
Q1 cash generation as every year burdened by payment of fullyear contribution for civil servant pension scheme (EUR 530m)
-709
-658
84
79
-401
-526
0
0
Free Cash Flow decline due to increased capex spend reflecting
continued investments in our growth markets as well as timing
effects
-31
70
Net interest line benefitted from one-off effect of EUR 76m related
to monetization of interest rate swaps
-348
-377
Tight management of Group working capital helped to minimize
flow-back of typical year-end cash effects
FFO/Debt at 24.9% (year-end 2014: 27.7%)
PAGE 17
NET DEBT (-)/LIQUIDITY (+)
Seasonality drives net debt increase as usual in Q1
Annual contribution to civil servant pension of EUR 530m (o.w. 130m in EBIT/OCF and 400m in W/C)
in EUR m
737
-658
-526
70
-1,499
-201
-2,077
Net debt
(Dec 31, 2014)
OCF before
change in W/C
Changes
in W/C
Net
capex
Net
interest
Other
effects
Net debt
(Mar 31, 2015)
PAGE 18
REMINDER ON PENSIONS: DEFINED BENEFIT OBLIGATIONS (DBO)
DBO pensions in Germany
in EUR m
 No regulatory funding requirement
 Pensions paid partially from plan assets and partially
from current OCF
20,484
Total DBO
18,099
Plan assets
10,961
Net Pension
Provision
7,138
8,635
Dec. 31,
2014
Mar. 31,
2015
Impact of declining discount rates
 Balance sheet: net pension provision up 1.5bn in Q1 2015
due to another step-down in Euro discount rate
 P&L: slight increase in staff costs expected in 2015 (mainly
due to higher current service costs), mostly offset by small
decline in finance costs
 Cash flow: cash outflow not directly affected as actual
pension payments and employer contributions to plan assets
not affected by fluctuations in applied discount rate levels
11,849
2014
Q1 2015
Average Discount Rate (quarter-end)
2.62%
2.04%
EUR Discount Rate (quarter-end)
2.25%
1.50%
Lower discount rates increase balance sheet liability but have no direct impact on cash generation
PAGE 19
PeP – DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Chg.
3,960
4,101
+3.6%
Revenue increase reflecting growth across eCommerce - Parcel activities as well
as price increases in Post products
EBIT
396
399
+0.8%
EBIT growth constrained by rise in wages and transportation costs as well as
expenses for international expansion of eCommerce - Parcel
Operating
Cash Flow
137
185
+35.0%
OCF increase driven by positive working capital development
38
64
+68.4%
Investments mainly directed to parcel infrastructure expansion
EUR m
Revenue
Capex
Management comments
PAGE 20
EXPRESS – DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Chg.
2,879
3,240
+12.5%
Strong TDI volume growth supported by positive FX effects. Organic revenue
growth at 2.3% mainly impacted by significant decrease in fuel surcharge revenue
EBIT
276
332
+20.3%
Strong EBIT growth driven by TDI volume growth and network efficiencies, EBIT
margin up 60bp yoy to 10.2%
Operating
Cash Flow
285
334
+17.2%
Strong operating cash flow increase in line with trend in EBIT performance
39
75
+92.3%
Main investments going towards hub and gateway infrastructure upgrade as well
as air fleet modernization and expansion
EUR m
Revenue
Capex
Management comments
PAGE 21
GLOBAL FORWARDING, FREIGHT– DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
EUR m
Revenue
Gross Profit
EBIT
Operating
Cash Flow
Capex
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Chg.
3,523
3,789
+7.6%
Revenue increase driven by volume growth in ocean freight and FX
843
859
+1.9%
Continued difficult market environment with margin pressure in both AFR and OFR
49
17
-65.3%
Further affected by ongoing NFE transformation program and low GP/unit in AFR
and OFR
-100
-160
-60.0%
Mainly reflecting EBIT decline and unfavorable working capital development
22
40
+81.8%
Low capex reflecting asset light business model
Management comments
PAGE 22
SUPPLY CHAIN – DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q1 2015
EUR m
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Chg.
Management comments
3,506
3,942
+12.4%
FX benefits mainly driven by stronger USD and GBP. Organic revenue up 0.8%
supported by new business across all regions (UK,US and APAC) but still held
back by a deliberate customer loss in North America
EBIT
85
53
-37.6%
EBIT declining mainly due to restructuring costs as well as small timing effects from
real estate transactions
Operating
Cash Flow
28
-112
n.a.
Capex
65
73
12.3%
Revenue
Cash flow down yoy mainly due to timing effects
Higher capex reflecting phasing of new contract investments
PAGE 23
EBIT GUIDANCE CONFIRMED FOR 2015/16/20
EUR bn
2015
2016
2020
PeP
At least 1.3
> 1.3
~ 3% CAGR 2013-20
DHL
2.1-2.25
2.45-2.75
~ 10% CAGR 2013-20
CC/Other
~ -0.35
~ -0.35
< 0.5% of group revenue
Group
3.05-3.2
3.4-3.7
> 8% CAGR 2013-20
FY 2015:
Free Cash Flow to exceed 2014 dividend
Tax rate around 18%
Gross Capex of around EUR 2.0bn
PAGE 24

Presentation Q1 2015

Transcription

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