2016 Lamar CISD Demographic Overview

Lamar C.I.S.D.
Demographic Update
February 18, 2016
Population & Survey Analysts
L.C.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Numeric
Change
In
Total Enrollment
Student
(Pre-PEIMS)
Enrollment
4th Week Survey,
2010-11
2014-15
to
2015-16
(Pre-PEIMS Enrollment Estimate)
Percent
Change
In
Total
Enrollment
Student
(Pre-PEIMS)
thEnrollment
4 Week Survey,
2010-11
2014-15
to
2015-16
(Pre-PEIMS Enrollment Estimate)
Fastest Growth School Districts in Texas
2013-14 to 2014-15
Growth
Enrollment Enrollment
Rank District Name
2013-14
2014-15 Numeric Percent
1 HOUSTON ISD
211,552
215,225
3,673
1.7%
2 FRISCO ISD
46,053
49,644
3,591
7.8%
3 KATY ISD
67,213
70,330
3,117
4.6%
4 ALDINE ISD
67,381
69,716
2,335
3.5%
5 CYPRESS-FAIRBANKS ISD
111,440
113,023
1,583
1.4%
6 NORTHSIDE ISD
102,129
103,606
1,477
1.4%
7 FORT WORTH ISD
84,588
85,975
1,387
1.6%
8 CONROE ISD
55,009
56,363
1,354
2.5%
9 HUMBLE ISD
38,235
39,522
1,287
3.4%
10 LAMAR CISD
27,079
28,332
1,253
4.6%
Past Growth Rates
30,000
29,000
4.8%
28,000
Enrollment
8.41%
27,000
3.62%
26,000
3.39%
25,000
2.6%
24,000
23,000
2009
3.24%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Unique Demographic Characteristics
Lamar C.I.S.D.
Several factors give Lamar C.I.S.D. a competitive advantage
for both enrollment growth & for residential development:
• Generally, the KN students have continued to
grow – averaging 4% over last two years;
• Low Economically Disadvantaged student
population (40.1%) – 58% in Texas overall
• High STAAR passage rate (79.2%)
• Highly educated population (36% have bachelor’s
degree) – 31% in metro area
• High median income level ($75,267) – relative to
$60,072 in metro area
• High growth due to land availability in the
development path
Kindergarten Enrollment
vs. Births
Economically Disadvantaged Students
Population: 2014-15
Rank District Name
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
FRISCO ISD
ALLEN ISD
LEANDER ISD
KELLER ISD
ROUND ROCK ISD
CLEAR CREEK ISD
PEARLAND ISD
KATY ISD
PLANO ISD
COMAL ISD
MCKINNEY ISD
LEWISVILLE ISD
HUMBLE ISD
CONROE ISD
FORT BEND ISD
MANSFIELD ISD
LAMAR CISD
MIDLAND ISD
DENTON ISD
Economically
Total
%
Disadvantaged Enrollment Disadvantaged
Students 2014-15 2014-15
2014-15
5,566
3,117
7,128
7,907
12,630
10,960
5,555
20,057
15,629
6,209
7,663
17,084
13,187
20,142
26,766
12,969
11,363
10,292
11,497
49,644
20,663
36,211
33,619
47,251
40,812
20,550
70,330
54,689
20,327
24,811
53,356
39,522
56,363
72,152
33,410
28,332
24,369
27,020
11.21%
15.08%
19.68%
23.52%
26.73%
26.85%
27.03%
28.52%
28.58%
30.55%
30.89%
32.02%
33.37%
35.74%
37.10%
38.00%
40.11%
42.23%
42.55%
Of 62
Districts
with 20,000
or More
Students
2014-15 STAAR Results 3rd-8th Grade
Rank District Name
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2014-15
Enrollment
STAAR Passage Rate
2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
90.69%
91.90%
FRISCO ISD
49,644
90.25%
92.04%
ALLEN ISD
20,663
88.91%
85.83%
PEARLAND ISD
20,550
87.36%
87.21%
KATY ISD
70,330
86.97%
86.15%
PLANO ISD
54,689
85.79%
83.96%
ROUND ROCK ISD
47,251
84.39%
84.75%
MCKINNEY ISD
24,811
84.01%
83.27%
HURST-EULESS-BEDFORD ISD
22,416
83.73%
84.12%
CONROE ISD
56,363
83.20%
82.27%
COMAL ISD
20,327
82.98%
83.32%
LEANDER ISD
36,211
82.31%
83.60%
CLEAR CREEK ISD
40,812
81.54%
84.30%
KELLER ISD
33,619
79.85%
80.71%
CYPRESS-FAIRBANKS ISD
113,023
79.71%
80.70%
MANSFIELD ISD
33,410
79.18%
79.37%
HUMBLE ISD
39,522
79.17%
80.90%
LAMAR CISD
28,332
(Of 62 Districts 72,152
w/>20,000
Students)
79.13%
80.24%
FORT BEND ISD
92.37%
91.92%
92.05%
91.77%
85.46%
84.98%
85.50%
86.68%
85.16%
84.56%
83.50%
82.76%
84.05%
82.81%
81.68%
83.55%
84.16%
82.46%
84.11%
83.01%
84.45%
84.80%
83.56%
84.07%
84.30%
84.69%
80.20%
81.51%
80.32%
79.83%
78.41%
80.10%
80.13%
79.05%
80.50%
79.99%
Private & Charter Schools
Current Enrollment
School
Grades
Projected Enrollment in 5 Years
Estimated
Estimated
Estimated
Estimated
Current
Enrollment
Students from Students from
Students
Students from
Enrollment
in 5 yrs.
LCISD
LCISD in KN-12th
from LCISD LCISD in KN-12th
Calvary Episcopal School
PK-12th
180
72
66
200
80
74
Cambridge Montessori School
1yr-2nd
170
2
0
200
2
0
Children’s Lighthouse
6wks-K,
AS
Christ Church School
PK-K
Darul Arqam – Southwest
PK-8th
0
2
0
0
174
0
0
0
0
167
200
200
250
85
970
0
2
0
0
194
0
0
0
0
186
Fort Bend Christian Academy
PK-12th
160
206
160
84
870
Fellowship Christian Academy
Toddler8th
120
0
0
125
0
0
PK-6th
12
0
0
50
0
0
K-12th
913
46
46
1300
65
65
K-6th
770
385
385
800
400
400
7th-12th
843
422
422
900
450
450
First Colony Montessori South
God’s Rainbow Christian
Academy
Harmony Science Academy –
West Houston – Charter
Harmony Science Academy –
Houston – Charter
Harmony Science Academy –
Houston High – Charter
18mos-K
Private & Charter Schools (cont’d)
Current Enrollment
School
Grades
Projected Enrollment in 5 Years
Estimated
Estimated
Estimated
Estimated
Current
Enrollment
Students from Students from
Students
Students from
Enrollment
in 5 yrs.
LCISD
LCISD in KN-12th
from LCISD LCISD in KN-12th
Holy Rosary Catholic School
PK3-8th
166
133
116
200
160
139
Kn.I.L.E Prep Academy
3rd-12th
50
38
38
100
75
75
La Amistad Love and Learning
Center – Charter
PK3-5th
243
0
0
300
0
0
Living Water Christian School
PK-10th
156
118
17
31
30
0
27
4
0
175
130
25
35
33
0
25
4
0
87
95
73
75
89
720
0
5
37
38
36
180
0
2
8
2
3
164
100
100
75
90
100
720
0
5
38
45
40
180
0
2
8
3
3
164
Montessori – Greatwood School 6wks-K
New Southwest Montessori
Center
18mos-K
Park Point Montessori North
3mos-2nd
Riverbend Montessori School
PK-6th
Shady Oak Christian School
PK3-K
Simonton Christian Academy
PK-7th
St. John’s Methodist School
PK-K
St. Laurence Catholic School
PK-7th
Private & Charter Schools (cont’d)
Current Enrollment
School
St. John’s Theresa Catholic
School
Grades
Projected Enrollment in 5 Years
Estimated
Estimated
Estimated
Estimated
Current
Enrollment
Students from Students from
Students
Students from
Enrollment
in 5 yrs.
LCISD
LCISD in KN-12th
from LCISD LCISD in KN-12th
PK-7th
200
20
18
220
22
20
K-8th
380
0
0
500
0
0
Sugar Creek Montessori School
PK-3rd
174
Sugar Grove Christian School
PK-6th
212
Sugar Mill Montessori School
Inf-K
110
0
0
0
23
0
185
220
150
710
115
0
0
8
36
3
0
0
1
23
0
Step Charter
Trent International School
PK-8th
100
0
0
6
35
3
Westlake Prep Lutheran
Academy
PK-8th
194
97
75
400
200
154
8,294
1,710
1,509
9,535
1,891
1,662
The Honor Roll School
Total
2yrs-8
th
703
Students from LCISD in private/charter schools:
4.84%
4.35%
Population & Survey Analysts
L.C.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Annual Employment Trends
6-Month
December
Pct. Change
2015
Annual
Pct. Change
December
2014
June
2015
Houston
Employment
Unemployment Rate
1,113,785
3.8
1,095,546
4.2
1,095,505
4.2
0.00%
-1.64%
Missouri City
Employment
Unemployment Rate
37,630
4
37,002
4.4
37,015
4.3
0.04%
-1.63%
Rosenberg
Employment
Unemployment Rate
16,067
3.4
15,798
4.2
15,804
4.2
0.04%
-1.64%
Sugar Land
Employment
Unemployment Rate
44,190
3
43,450
3.6
43,466
3.3
0.04%
-1.64%
Harris County
Employment
Unemployment Rate
2,175,670
4
2,140,053
4.5
2,139,960
4.6
0.00%
-1.64%
Fort Bend County
Employment
Unemployment Rate
331,701
3.7
326,150
4.3
326,271
4.4
0.04%
-1.64%
Lamar C.I.S.D. Employment Trends
Employment Growth and Critical Employment Centers
Both Act as Local Population Growth Stimuli
 Lamar C.I.S.D. is less affected than other growing suburban districts in regard to
the oil price plunge, with Fort Bend I.S.D. and Lamar C.I.S.D. likely showing the
least impacts on jobs and job stability – relative to those school districts with a
higher proportion of upstream-related jobs;
 The Houston area gained ~21,500 to 23,000 jobs in 2015, but had gained 104,700
in 2014 -- at the height of the oil boom;
 Janowski (Greater Houston Partnership) estimates that roughly 29,000 oil/gas
related jobs locally have been lost to layoffs at exploration and production firms,
but this number continues to grow;
 Unemployment has moved from 3.8% to 4.2% in Houston in 2015;
 Houston’s unemployment closely follows the energy supply chain;
 Lamar C.I.S.D. employment generators are from service sectors – medical &
educational, and professional services, and non-energy-related manufacturing;
Population & Survey Analysts
L.C.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Lamar C.I.S.D. Housing Trends
L.C.I.S.D. Ranks Among the Top Districts in the Houston Area
in Terms of Housing Growth
 Lamar C.I.S.D. ranks 3rd out of 62 Houston Metro Area
school districts for most housing starts in 4Q 2015.
 Lamar C.I.S.D. had 2,522 new home starts in 2015 (down
14%) and 2,294 new home closings in 2015 (up 7%).
 New home starts in Lamar C.I.S.D. have declined from 756
in 4Q 2014 to 545 in 4Q 2015.
 This deceleration in new home starts is less dramatic than
the deceleration seen in other high growth Houston area
school districts.
Lamar C.I.S.D. Housing Trends
Change in Housing Starts in the Top 8 School Districts
(Those 8 Districts with the Most New Home Starts in 4th Quarter, 2015)
4th Quarter 2014 to 4th Quarter 2015
Houston I.S.D.
Klein I.S.D.
Katy I.S.D.
Cy-Fair I.S.D.
Humble I.S.D.
Conroe I.S.D.
-56%
-42%
-26%
-18%
-16%
-15%
Lamar C.I.S.D.
-14%
Fort Bend I.S.D.
+5.5%
Lamar C.I.S.D. Housing Trends
Future Trends in New Housing in H.I.S.D.
 Apartments in Lamar C.I.S.D. are not overbuilt currently – and
have an occupancy rate of 90%.
 Because apartments are over-built in the metro area, then
L.C.I.S.D. can expect little activity for the next two years, followed
by 2 to 4 new apartment complexes per year over the long-term;
 The prices of new homes have increased significantly, prices are
still holding steady, and young buyers have difficulty in obtaining
mortgages. But, the majority of all added students in new homes
are elementary students in L.C.I.S.D.;
 Students moving into existing homes in built-out neighborhoods,
accounts for just 16% of all added students this year – and the
majority are older students, i.e., 76% are secondary students
Student Growth by
Type of Housing
Resident Resident Added Students
Percent of
2014
to
2015
Students Students
Growth
in 2014
in 2015
#
%
Subdivisions Existing
Subdivisions Active
18,186
18,390
204
1%
16%
4,052
5,022
970
24%
75%
Apartments
2,277
2,312
MHP
1,265
1,346
35
81
2%
6%
3%
6%
L.C.I.S.D. Future Transportation Trends
A Critical Predictor of Residential Development
 Construction on Fulshear Parkway to begin around March 2016 and to be
completed in 30 months
 Westpark Tollway extension past Cross Creek -- completed by 3rd quarter 2017 –
and possibly through the City of Fulshear slightly earlier, plus improvements to
FM 1093
 Construction of Fulshear Trace to the south boundary of the Fullbrook on Fulshear
Creek subdivision
 Construction of two segments of I-69/US 59 from spur 10 to FM 762 and from FM
762 to the Grand Parkway – so that drivers can I-69/US 59 from Fort Bend to
Montgomery County sometime this year – without entering the inner loop of
Houston.
 Fort Bend Parkway’s path in the E. through the northern portion of the City of
Thompsons will have a dramatic impact on build-out for the School District, but
its timing is uncertain
 Finally, the Grand Parkway’s path through the S.E. sector of L.C.I.S.D. will allow
the southern portion of Thompsons to develop as well
Oct 2013 – Nov 2014
Nov 2014 – Oct 2015
Recent
Changes
in
Ownership
of
Larger
Parcels
in
L.C.I.S.D.
Parcels 5+ Acres FOR SALE in L.C.I.S.D.
Largest Growth
Single Family Developments
Largest Single-Family Residential
Developments
Tamarron Lakes
Cross Creek Ranch
Harrison Interests
Fulshear Farms
"Henderson-Wessendorf"
Total Projected New Single-Family
Occupancies
Projected New Housing
Occupancies
2016-2020 2020-2025 2016-2025
1,731
989
139
212
209
2,007
1650
1,140
1,062
771
3,738
2,639
1,279
1,274
980
14,487 25,648 40,135
Largest Growth
Multi-Family Developments
Largest Multi-Family Residential
Developments
Jordan Ranch
Long Meadow Farms
Fulshear Lakes
Tracts along FM 723
WBH Ranches
Total Projected New Multi-Family
Occupancies
Projected New Housing
Occupancies
2016-2020 2020-2025 2016-2025
90
360
180
100
50
660
300
300
350
350
750
660
480
450
400
2,410
6,004
8,414
Projected New Housing Occupancies
Year Ending in
October
2016
Projected
New Housing
Occupancies
2016 – 2025
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016 - 2020
2020 - 2025
2016 - 2025
SingleFamily
MultiFamily
Mixed Use
MHP
Total
2,113
2,506
2,920
3,297
3,651
3,990
4,546
5,229
5,739
6,144
90
55
358
780
1,127
1,451
1,507
1,260
948
838
0
0
0
25
75
120
160
180
190
190
1
0
1
0
2
3
2
2
3
3
2,204
2,561
3,279
4,102
4,855
5,564
6,215
6,671
6,880
7,175
100
840
940
4
13
17
17,001
32,505
49,506
14,487 2,410
25,648 6,004
40,135 8,414
Fastest Projected Housing Growth
in Houston Area
Projected New Housing
(Single- and Multi-Family)
2015 - 2025
Lamar C.I.S.D.
Katy I.S.D.
Cy-Fair I.S.D.
Conroe I.S.D.
Fort Bend I.S.D.
Klein I.S.D.
Humble I.S.D.
49,506
47,195
47,032
38,312
32,489
23,748
17,262
Projected
New Housing
Occupancies
Jan 2016
to
Oct 2016
Projected
New Housing
Occupancies
Jan 2016
to
Oct 2020
Projected
New Housing
Occupancies
Jan 2016
to
Oct 2025
Projected
New Housing
Occupancies
Build-out
Post-2025
Population & Survey Analysts
L.C.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Ratios of Students per Household
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Single-Family
Students per Occupied Home
Multi-Family
Students per Occupied Unit
0.60 0.60 0.58 0.58 0.58
0.57
0.46 0.49 0.41 0.40 0.39
0.38
Ratios of Students per Household
by Master Planned Community
Students
Canyon Gate at the Brazos
952
Parkway Lakes
486
Long Meadow Farms
616
Greatwood
2,657
Lakemont
1,384
Westheimer Lakes
953
Lakes of Bella Terra
490
River Park West
474
River's Edge
260
River Park
495
Brazos Town Center
109
Tamarron Lakes
61
Firethorne West
170
Cross Creek Ranch
8
Homes
1,237
640
933
4,228
2,275
1,684
1,113
1,080
605
1,175
329
214
654
138
Ratio
0.77
0.76
0.66
0.63
0.61
0.57
0.44
0.44
0.43
0.42
0.33
0.29
0.26
0.06
Population & Survey Analysts
L.C.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Moderate Growth Scenario
Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot
2016 2017 2018 2019
2020
2021
2022 2023 2024 2025
Enrollment
30,838
32,035
33,299
34,796
36,558
38,540
40,793
43,287
45,946
48,754
% Growth
3.86
3.88
3.95
4.50
5.06
5.85
6.11
6.14
6.11
Growth
1,146 1,197 1,264 1,497 1,762
5.42
1,981 2,254 2,493 2,660 2,808
Three Scenarios of Growth
High Growth
2020 – 37,961
2025 – 53,532
55,000
Enrollment
50,000
Moderate
Growth
2020 – 36,558
2025 – 48,754
45,000
Low Growth
2020 – 35,607
2025 – 45,605
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
2012
2016
2025
Population & Survey Analysts
L.C.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Projected Growth in Elementary Students
2015 through 2025 by Planning Unit
Projected Resident Students 2016 and 2025
2015-16 Elementary Attendance Zones
Open Elementary #24 in 2016-17
Proposed 2016-17 Elementary Attendance Zones
Open Two New Elementary Schools
in 2017-18
Open Three New Elementary Schools
in 2019-20
Open One New Elementary School
in 2021-22
Open One New Elementary School
in 2022-23
Elementary School Long Range Planning Summary
Elementary School Long Range Plan
Comparison to Previous Years
New Elementary Schools Projected
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total
2015-16 Study
1
1
2014-15 Study
2013-14 Study
1
1
1
2012-13 Study
2011-12 Study
2010-11 Study
2009-10 Study
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
1
3
3
1
2
2
1
1
3
1
3
1
2
1
1
11
12
9
8
5
6
8
Projected Resident Students
2016-17 Middle School & Jr High Attendance Zones
Projected Resident 6th and 7th-8th Students
by School
>120% Utilization by RESIDENT Population
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
6th Grade Campuses
Leaman
Navarro
Polly Ryon
Wertheimer
Wessendorff
318
528
561
461
456
366
565
606
489
484
414
585
632
508
496
469
615
658
537
516
515
612
653
541
509
576
645
685
576
528
644
677
726
609
550
718
714
768
655
574
795
752
813
700
594
882
1,158
931
547
1,188
898
1,166
932
618
1,212
947
1,219
974
715
1,274
1,010
1,286
1,028
829
1,345
1,067
1,342
1,063
947
1,395
1,114
1,381
1,078
1,058
1,430
1,163
1,413
1,084
1,178
1,471
1,244
1,482
1,127
1,318
1,553
1,340
1,559
1,175
1,473
1,649
229
568
549
443
477
7th-8th Grade Campuses
Briscoe
George
Lamar
Leaman
Reading
869
1,101
876
505
1,203
Projected Resident Students
2016-17 High School Attendance Zones
Projected Resident 9th-12th Students by School
>120% Utilization by RESIDENT Population
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
9th-12th Grade Campuses
Foster HS
Fulshear HS
George Ranch HS
Lamar HS
Terry HS
1,632
842
2,516
1,643
1,993
1,699
972
2,605
1,667
2,043
1,757
1,116
2,684
1,701
2,092
1,805
1,275
2,744
1,724
2,135
1,864
1,458
2,804
1,758
2,184
1,972
1,674
2,897
1,828
2,294
2,101
1,906
3,020
1,902
2,420
2,250
2,165
3,172
1,986
2,554
2,391
2,432
3,313
2,047
2,666
2,536
2,704
3,452
2,097
2,771
Lamar C.I.S.D.
Demographic Update
February 18, 2016