Briefing Retail sector

Transcription

Savills World Research
Beijing
Briefing
Retail sector
July 2013
Image: Seasons Place, Beijing Financial Street (BFS)
SUMMARY
Despite a slowing of Beijing’s retail sales growth rate, mid- to high-end retail leasing
activity picked up in the second quarter.
 Accumulated

retail sales for the
first five months of the year reached
RMB329.5 billion, up 9.1% year-onyear (YoY). The slower growth rate
resulted from a contraction in F&B
sales of 5.6% YoY.
on-quarter (QoQ) to an average of
RMB882.7 per sq m per month.
 Supply

in the second quarter was
111,000 sq m, bringing total retail
stock to 8.94 million sq m.
The

city-wide shopping mall
vacancy rate is expected to increase
moderately on the back of abundant
new supply.
 The
city-wide mid- to high-end
shopping mall vacancy rate remained
unchanged at 8.5%.
Mid
to high-end shopping mall
first-floor rents edged up 0.8% quarter-
 Ten
projects are expected to enter
the market in 2H/2013, adding 823,300
sq m of new supply.
 Rents

in established projects are
expected to remain stable; however,
new projects with low pre-commitment
rates may offer increased incentives to
attract tenants.
“The gap between highly
sought-after projects and
projects in emerging locations
has become more pronounced
as rents in well-operated
projects maintained their upward
growth, albeit at a slower rate,
while rents in emerging locations
remained stagnant.”
Joan Wang, Savills Research
savills.com.cn/research
01
Briefing | Beijing retail sector
Retail sales slowed dramatically in the
first half of 2013, resulting from the
anti-corruption campaign and weaker
than expected economic growth. The
F&B sector recorded a contraction
in sales in the first five months,
down 5.6% YoY, while the sale of
fuel products contracted by 3.9%
YoY. Expenditure on apparel goods
continued to increase, albeit at a much
slower rate than in previous years,
growing just 3.4% YoY. As a result,
Beijing’s retail sales growth rate slowed
to 9.1% YoY on a nominal basis during
the first five months of 2013.
The slowdown in retail sales has had
a big impact on many retail and F&B
enterprises. According to data from
the Beijing Statistics Bureau, 2,280
out of 4,577 major wholesale and retail
enterprises and 483 out of 792 F&B
enterprises recorded losses during
the first quarter. In one extreme case,
Wudirenjia (吴地人家), a restaurant
chain headquartered in Suzhou, closed
all four of its Beijing outlets.
Supply
Two community shopping malls
operated by Beijing Hualian Group
(BHG) debuted in the second quarter,
BHG Tong Cheng Jie Mall and BHG
Xiao Jia He Mall, adding a total of
97,000 sq m to the market. Both
projects are located outside the Fifth
Ring Road.
The second phase of Seasons Place
also held its grand opening. The total
additional retail GFA was only 14,000
sq m. As a result, Beijing’s mid- to
high-end retail stock stood at 8.94
million sq m by the end of Q2/2013.
Project information
China World Mall plans to renovate the
China World Exhibition Hall, bringing
roughly 10,000 sq m of additional
supply.
Sanlitun Village has been renamed ‘Tai
Koo Li Sanlitun’ by its owner, Swire
Properties, which aim to increase
awareness of the company’s brand in
Beijing.
Zhongyou Department Store (中友百
货) in Xidan area changed its name to
Han Guang Department Store （汉光
百货）due to the expiry of its naming
rights, which was sourced from a
partner store in Taiwan upon its launch
in 1999.
02
GRAPH 1
Retail sales, Jan 2010–May 2013
Retail sales (LHS)
F&B revenue YoY growth rate (RHS)
100
RMB billion
Economic overview
July 2013
Retail sales nominal YoY growth rate (RHS)
25%
80
20%
60
15%
40
10%
20
5%
0
0%
-20
-5%
-40
-10%
-60
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
-15%
Source: Beijing Statistics Bureau, Savills Research
TABLE 1
New projects, Q2/2013
Project
Retail GFA
(sq m)
Retail area
Retail type
BHG Xiao Jia He
Mall
32,000
Shangdi
Shopping mall
BHG Tong Cheng
Jie Mall
65,000
Huilongguan
Shopping mall
Seasons Place
Phase 2
14,000
BFS
Shopping mall
Source: Savills Research
Demand and occupancy
rates
Demand from fashion brands in the
second quarter picked up compared
with the previous quarter. In addition to
high-end brands, mass-market brands
also committed to a number of new
stores.
- China World Mall introduced
Shanghai Tang and Lafayette 148.
- Seasons Place launched Penny
Black, LIU•JO, Diesel and the 600-sq
m Dolce & Gabbana store.
- ECMall in Zhongguancun (ZGC)
introduced Lip Service and Hush
Puppies.
- The Gate introduced Earth Music &
Ecology and One More.
- Tai Koo Li Sanlitun introduced Club
Monaco, 3.1 Phillip Lim and a 350-sq
m Givenchy location.
- H&M replaced NIKE at its flagship
store in Beijing APM, with an area of
around 1,100 sq m.
- Raffles City launched a 300-sq m
Retro, a designer’s store.
Also, several leasing transactions were
recorded by tenants from the jewellery,
shoes and bags, F&B and children’s
sectors.
- Swarovski opened its new store
in China World Mall Phase 1, while
accessories brand Goyard replaced
Starbucks.
- Shoe brand Stuart Weitzman
committed to two new stores in Park
Life Shopping Center (250 sq m) and
The Mall at Oriental Plaza (200 sq m).
- British children’s brand Mamas &
Papas launched their first flagship
store, sized roughly 800 sq m in
Golden Resources Mall.
July 2013
- Shota Muni Sushi & Grill committed
in ECMall, Japanese ramen restaurant
David Ramen (舞心拉面) committed
in Park Life Shopping Center and
Japanese restaurant Jazz-ya (爵士屋)
committed in Raffles City.
GRAPH 2
Despite strong leasing demand, the
repositioning and upgrading of tenant
mixes in several projects freed up
some space in the market, providing
tenants with increased choices for site
selection and retail expansion.
16%
IFC City Mall (都汇天地) in Lufthansa
area is currently only around 50%
occupied and is now considering
how to best reposition itself. Cuiwei
Plaza has brought in more lifestyle and
home design tenants for its 4/F, while
Zhongguancun Plaza also continued
its tenant mix adjustment, leading to an
increase in the project’s vacancy rate.
As a result, the city-wide mid- to
high-end shopping mall vacancy rate
remained unchanged at 8.5%.
Major retail area vacancy rates, Q1/2013 vs Q2/2013
Q1/2013
18%
Q2/2013
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Wangfujing
Xidan
CBD
Lufthansa
Sanlitun
Dongzhimen Zhongguancun
Source: Savills Research
Rents
Mid- to high-end shopping mall
first-floor rents increased by 0.8%
in the second quarter to an average
of RMB882.7 per sq m per month.
Xidan, Dongzhimen, Sanlitun and CBD
catchments registered the largest
rental growth rates at 5.6%, 5.4%,
2.7% and 2.6% respectively.
GRAPH 3
First-floor shopping mall rental index, Q1/2008–Q2/2013
Overall
QoQ
YoY
140
20%
130
15%
120
10%
110
5%
100
0%
Ten projects are expected to enter
the market in the second half of 2013,
adding 823,300 sq m of new retail
space and bringing annual supply to
around 1.13 million sq m, the second
highest annual supply seen since
2010. Nearly 30% of new retail space
in the second half will be located in
prime retail areas, while more than half
will be located in the emerging retail
areas. The city-wide shopping mall
vacancy rate is expected to record a
moderate increase as this new supply
is gradually digested by the market.
Rents in established projects are
expected to remain stable over the
coming six months; however, new
projects in immature retail locations are
expected to offer more incentives to
attract suitable tenants. 
03
Q1/2008 = 100
Market outlook
90
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2008
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-5%
July 2013
TABLE 2
Future key projects, 2H/2013
Project
Retail GFA
(sq m)
Location
Retail type
BHG Shunyi Mall
北京华联顺义金街项目
95,000
Shunyi
Shopping mall
Galeries Lafayette
老佛爷百货
47,300
Xidan
Department store
BHG Tian Hong Mall
北京华联天鸿购物中心
81,000
Changying
Shopping mall
Crystal Palace
北京新业中心•水晶宫
75,000
CBD
Shopping mall
Tun San Li Yong Li Mall
屯三里永利购物中心
55,000
Sanlitun
Shopping mall
Aegean Sea Mall
爱琴海购物中心
130,000
Taiyanggong
Shopping mall
BaoYuan International Shopping
Center
宝苑国际购物中心
160,000
Nanyuan
Shopping mall
Beijing Mall
新燕莎金街购物广场
46,000
Wangfujing
Department store
Jinyu Vanke Plaza
金隅万科广场
96,000
Changping
Shopping mall
Spot on WFJ
淘汇新天
38,000
Wangfujing
Shopping mall
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Please contact us for further information
Savills Research
Savills Project &
Development Consultancy
Savills Retail
James Macdonald
Associate Director, China
+8621 6391 6688
[email protected]
Joan Wang
Director
+8610 5925 2042
[email protected]
Anthony McQuade
Senior Director
+8610 5925 2002
[email protected]
Melissa Ong
Senior Associate Director
+8610 5925 2086
[email protected]
Savills plc
Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company
that leads rather than follows, and now has over 500 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus,
agreement or other document without prior consent. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss
arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.
04