an extract of Kitchens and Bathrooms Report

HIA–GWA
Kitchens
& Bathrooms
2015/16
Past Growth and Future Prospects
Housing Industry Association
Kitchens and Bathrooms Report
Past Growth and Future Prospects 2015/16
April 2016
HIA Economics
79 Constitution Avenue
CAMPBELL ACT 2612
http://economics.hia.com.au
Cover photo courtesy GWA Bathrooms & Kitchens
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P1 HIA
KITCHENS
BATHROOMS
REPORT
- PAST
FUTURE PROSPECTS
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2015-16
Contents
Economic Backdrop ............................................................................................................................................ 7
The Kitchen Industry .........................................................................................................................................19
The Bathroom Industry .....................................................................................................................................22
The Kitchen and Bathroom Industries: Activities, Attitudes, and Averages .....................................................24
New South Wales .............................................................................................................................................56
1) Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes..................................................................... 56
2) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations ............................................................................................ 57
Victoria......................................................................................................................................................... 59
3) Kitchen Installations in New Homes ............................................................................................ 59
4) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations ............................................................................................ 60
Queensland ................................................................................................................................................. 62
5) Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes..................................................................... 62
6) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations ............................................................................................ 63
South Australia ............................................................................................................................................ 65
7) Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes..................................................................... 65
8) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations ............................................................................................ 66
Western Australia ........................................................................................................................................ 68
9) Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes..................................................................... 68
10) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations .......................................................................................... 69
Tasmania ..................................................................................................................................................... 71
11) Kitchens and Bathroom Installations in New Homes ................................................................. 71
12) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations .......................................................................................... 72
Northern Territory ........................................................................................................................................ 74
13) Kitchen and Bathroom Installations in New Homes ................................................................... 74
14) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations .......................................................................................... 75
Australian Capital Territory .......................................................................................................................... 77
15) Kitchens and Bathrooms Installations in New Homes ............................................................... 77
16) Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations .......................................................................................... 78
17) APPENDIX A: Methodology Underlying Kitchen and Bathroom Forecasts ............................... 80
18) APPENDIX B: Kitchen and Bathroom Forecasts by state ......................................................... 82
19) APPENDIX C: Additional information regarding survey respondents........................................ 88
P2 HIA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
2015/16
List of Figures and Tables
Figure 1: GDP Growth ......................................................................................................................................................... 7
Figure 2: Gross State Product ............................................................................................................................................. 8
Figure 3: State Final Demand ............................................................................................................................................. 9
Figure 4: Unemployment and Participation ......................................................................................................................... 9
Figure 5: Unemployment Rates ......................................................................................................................................... 10
Figure 6: Inflation and Rental Growth ................................................................................................................................ 11
Figure 7: Population Growth .............................................................................................................................................. 11
Figure 8: Building Approvals - Total .................................................................................................................................. 12
Figure 9: Building Approvals – Houses and Units ............................................................................................................. 13
Figure 10: National Median Dwelling Price........................................................................................................................ 13
Figure 11: Median Dwelling Price – Capital Cities ............................................................................................................. 14
Figure 12: Investment in Renovations in Australia ............................................................................................................ 15
Figure 13: Renovations Investment – by State.................................................................................................................. 15
Figure 14: Estimated Number of Houses out to 2023 ....................................................................................................... 16
Figure 15: Trade Availability of Ceramic Tiler’s, Australia ................................................................................................. 17
Figure 16: Trade Availability of Electricians, Australia ....................................................................................................... 17
Figure 17: Trade Availability of Joiners, Australia ............................................................................................................. 18
Figure 18: Trade Availability of Plumbers, Australia .......................................................................................................... 18
Figure 19: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Australia ................................................................................... 20
Figure 20: Notional Demand for Kitchen Renovations, Australia ....................................................................................... 21
Figure 21: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Australia ................................................................................ 23
Figure 22: Notional Demand for Bathroom Renovations, Australia ................................................................................... 23
Figure 23: Kitchen jobs engaged by: ................................................................................................................................. 24
Figure 24: Number of kitchen jobs completed in 2015 ...................................................................................................... 25
Figure 25: Expectations for activity levels over the next 12 months .................................................................................. 25
Figure 26: Proportion of jobs involving installation of a kitchen in a new home ................................................................. 26
Figure 27: Time to install a kitchen in a new home ........................................................................................................... 27
Figure 28: Average value of kitchen installed in new home............................................................................................... 27
Figure 29: More expensive to renovate or install a kitchen in a new home ....................................................................... 28
Figure 30: Average age of kitchens ................................................................................................................................... 29
Figure 31: Most common type of renovations job done for kitchens ................................................................................. 30
Figure 32: Size of kitchens ................................................................................................................................................ 31
Figure 33: Time it takes to install a kitchen renovation ...................................................................................................... 31
Figure 34: Extent of material specification......................................................................................................................... 32
Figure 35: Average value of kitchen renovation ................................................................................................................ 32
Figure 36: Jobs that complement kitchen and bathroom work .......................................................................................... 33
Figure 37: Sources of kitchen products ............................................................................................................................. 34
Figure 38: Why the preference for Domestic ..................................................................................................................... 35
Figure 39: Why the preference - Imported......................................................................................................................... 35
Figure 40: Domestic or Imported Product use ................................................................................................................... 36
Figure 41: Source of Kitchen Components ........................................................................................................................ 37
Figure 42: Use of domestically produced goods ............................................................................................................... 38
Figure 43: Bathroom jobs engaged by: ............................................................................................................................. 39
Figure 44: Number of bathrooms completed in 2015 ........................................................................................................ 39
Figure 45: Expectations for activity levels over the next 12 months .................................................................................. 40
Figure 46: Proportion of jobs involving installation of bathrooms in new homes ............................................................... 41
Figure 47: Time to install a bathroom in a new home ........................................................................................................ 42
Figure 48: Average value bathroom installed .................................................................................................................... 42
Figure 49: Frequency of updating a bathroom .................................................................................................................. 43
P3 HIA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
2015/16
Figure 50: Most common bathroom jobs ........................................................................................................................... 44
Figure 51: Bathroom size .................................................................................................................................................. 45
Figure 52: Time to complete a bathroom renovation ......................................................................................................... 46
Figure 53: Average spend on bathroom renovation .......................................................................................................... 46
Figure 54: Number of bathrooms ...................................................................................................................................... 47
Figure 55: Cost comparison between bathrooms for new homes and renovations ........................................................... 48
Figure 56: Extent of material specification......................................................................................................................... 49
Figure 57: Use of domestically produced and imported goods .......................................................................................... 50
Figure 58: origins of products used in bathrooms ............................................................................................................. 50
Figure 59: Change in use of domestically produced goods ............................................................................................... 51
Figure 60: Basis of supply and distribution ........................................................................................................................ 52
Figure 61: Origin of products supplied and distributed ...................................................................................................... 53
Figure 62: Three year supply and distribution prediction ................................................................................................... 54
Figure 63: Location of manufacturing ................................................................................................................................ 55
Figure 64: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes in New South Wales 1999 to 2020 ............................................ 56
Figure 65: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, New South Wales 1999 to 2020 ........................................... 57
Figure 66: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations in New South Wales 2010 to 2020 ........................ 57
Figure 67: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Victoria 1999 to 2020 ............................................................... 59
Figure 68: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Victoria 1999 to 2020 ............................................................ 60
Figure 69: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations, Victoria 2010 to 2020 ........................................... 60
Figure 70: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Queensland 1999 to 2020 ........................................................ 62
Figure 71: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Queensland 1999 to 2020 .................................................... 63
Figure 72: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations in Queensland, 2010 to 2020 ................................ 63
Figure 73: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, South Australia 1999 to 2020 ................................................... 65
Figure 74: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, South Australia 1999 to 2020................................................ 66
Figure 75: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations in South Australia 2010 to 2020 ............................ 66
Figure 76: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Western Australia 1999 to 2020 ............................................... 68
Figure 77: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Western Australia 1999 to 2020............................................ 69
Figure 78: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations, Western Australia 2010 to 2020 ........................... 69
Figure 79: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Tasmania 1999 to 2020............................................................ 71
Figure 80: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Tasmania 1999 to 2020 ........................................................ 72
Figure 81: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations, Tasmania 2010 to 2020 ........................................ 72
Figure 82: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Northern Territory 1999 to 2020 ............................................... 74
Figure 83: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Northern Territory 1999 to 2020............................................ 75
Figure 84: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations, NT, 2010 to 2020 ................................................. 75
Figure 85: Number of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, ACT 1999 to 2020 .................................................................... 77
Figure 86: Number of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, ACT 1999 to 2020 ................................................................. 78
Figure 87: Notional Demand for Kitchen and Bathroom Renovations, ACT, 2010 to 2020 ............................................... 78
Figure 88: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes in New South Wales 1999 to 2020 ................................................ 82
Figure 89: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, New South Wales 1999 to 2020 ............................................... 82
Figure 90: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Victoria 1999 to 2020 ................................................................... 82
Figure 91: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Victoria 1999 to 2020 ............................................................... 83
Figure 92: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Queensland 1999 to 2020 ............................................................ 83
Figure 93: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Queensland 1999 to 2020 ........................................................ 83
Figure 94: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, South Australia 1999 to 2020 ....................................................... 84
Figure 95: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, South Australia 1999 to 2020 ................................................... 84
Figure 96: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Western Australia 1999 to 2020 ................................................... 84
Figure 97: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Western Australia 1999 to 2020 ............................................... 85
Figure 98: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Tasmania 1999 to 2020 ............................................................... 85
Figure 99: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Tasmania 1999 to 2020 ............................................................ 85
P4 HIA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
2015/16
Figure 100: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, Northern Territory 1999 to 2020 ................................................. 86
Figure 101: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Northern Territory 1999 to 2020 ............................................. 86
Figure 102: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes, ACT 1999 to 2020 ...................................................................... 86
Figure 103: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, ACT 1999 to 2020 .................................................................. 87
Figure 104: Value of Kitchens Installed in New Homes in Australia 1999 to 2020 ............................................................ 87
Figure 105: Value of Bathrooms Installed in New Homes, Australia 1999 to 2020 ........................................................... 87
Figure 106: Locations of the majority of work? .................................................................................................................. 88
Figure 107: Main activities of business.............................................................................................................................. 88
Figure 108: Description of work done by respondents - Kitchens ..................................................................................... 89
Figure 109: Description of work done by respondents - Bathrooms .................................................................................. 89
Figure 110: Description of work done by respondents - kitchens and bathrooms ............................................................. 90
Figure 111: Description of work done by respondents - general building and renovation ................................................. 90
Figure 112: Description of kitchens and bathroom renovation jobs ................................................................................... 91
Figure 113: Description of work done by respondents - materials/products/appliance manufacturing .............................. 91
Figure 114: Description of work done by respondents - supply/distribution ...................................................................... 92
P5 HIA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
2015/16
OVERVIEW
 In 2014/15 the total number of kitchen installations in new homes increased
by 18.3 per cent, representing a third consecutive year of estimated growth in
the double digits. In the current 2015/16 financial year, kitchen installations in
new homes are forecast to remain at an elevated level, albeit slightly lower
(down by 0.6 per cent) than in the previous year. A sharper decline of 14.2 per
cent in 2016/17 followed by another fall of 12.4 per cent in 2017/18 would bring
the total number of kitchen installations in new homes to an expected trough of
160,100, before resuming a trajectory of growth in 2018/19.
 Following three consecutive years of double-digit growth, the total number of
bathroom installations in new homes is projected to remain elevated in
2015/16 at 429,400 installations, a level that is however slightly lower than the
previous year’s 432,000 installations. Activity is projected to decline more
sharply in 2015/16 and then again in 2017/18, bringing the total number of new
bathroom installations to a trough of 322,700 before resuming a trajectory of
growth in 2018/19.
 Based on notional demand HIA estimates that there is total pool of around
145,600 potential kitchen renovations jobs in 2015/16.
 HIA estimates that in 2015/16 there is a total pool of around 219,600 potential
bathroom renovations jobs, based on notional demand.
 The latest HIA Kitchens and Bathrooms survey found the average value of
kitchens installed in new homes to be $21,356, only slightly higher than the
$21,862 average value of kitchens installed as part of renovations.
 The survey found the average value for bathrooms installed in new homes
to be $16,731 compared to the average value for bathrooms installed as
part of a renovation at $17,779.
 The survey found a large majority of kitchen renovations (73 per cent) were
performed in homes of the 11 to 20 year age group. Of the total, 45 per cent
were performed on homes in the 11 to 15 year age group. A further 29 per cent
of renovations were performed on homes aged between 16 and 20 years.
 The HIA Kitchens and Bathrooms survey found a large majority of bathroom
renovations (74 per cent) are performed in homes within the 11 to 20 year age
bracket. Of the total, 36 per cent were performed on bathrooms in the 11 to 15
year age group. A further 38 per cent of renovations were performed on
bathrooms aged between 16 and 20 years.
P6 HIA KITCHENS AND BATHROOMS REPORT - PAST GROWTH AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
2015/16