SYNDROMES under CLIMATE CHANGE

SYNDROMES under
CLIMATE CHANGE
Matthias K. B. Lüdeke and the Syndrome Group
SYNDICATE
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Global Climate Change
Deforestation
Soil Degradation
Rural Poverty
The Syndrome approach
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Task: identify relevant problems of Global
Environmental Change (GEC, including Climate
Change) and provide policy recommendations for the
German Government to mitigate them
GEC is understood as part of Global Change (GC) –
high complexity
Reduction: typical patterns of problematic
environmental changes and their drivers (Syndromes)
as units of investigation
Intermediate functional resolution
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke
Symptoms: Elements of GC
Symptomsammlung zum Globalen Wandel
BIOSPHÄRE
ATMOSPHÄRE
Resistenzbildung
Zunahme anthropogener
Artenverschleppung
Fertilitätsverlust
(Humus, Nährstoffe)
Reduktion
stratosphärischen Ozons
Zunehmende Übernutzung
biologischer Ressourcen
Stoffliche Überlastung
natürlicher Ökosysteme
Konversion
natürlicher Ökosysteme
Fragmentierung
natürlicher Ökosysteme
Schädigung von Ökosystemstruktur und-funktion
Gen- und Artenverluste
Zunehmende lokale
Luftverschmutzung
Versalzung,
Alkalisierung
Erosion,
morhologische Änderungen
Troposphärenverschmutzung
Überdüngung
Versiegelung
Verstärkter
Treibhauseffekt
Versauerung.
Kontamination
Verdichtung
Globaler und regionaler
Klimawandel
Verlust von
biosphärischen Senken
PEDOSPHÄRE
Zunehmende Deposition und
Akkumulation von Abfällen
Verstärkung von
biosphärischen Quellen
Zunehmender Verbrauch von
Energie und Rohstoffen
HYDROSPHÄRE
BEVÖLKERUNG
Bevölkerungswachstum
Internationale Migration
Urbanisierung
Zersiedelung
Veränderung der
Eiskappen und Gletscher
Änderung ozeanischer
Strömungen
WIRTSCHAFT
Intensivierung der Landwirtschaft
Steigerung der
Arbeitsproduktivität
Ausweitung landwirtschaftlich
Intensivierung
genutzter
Flächen der
Veränderung der
lokalen Wasserbilanz
Süßwasserverknappung
Veränderung des
Grundwasserspiegels
Landflucht
Zunehmende Gesundheitsschäden
durch Umweltbelastung
Veränderte Frachten von
partikulären & gelösten Stoffen
Meeresspiegelanstieg
Veränderung der Wasserqualität
(Patogene, Nährstoffe, Toxine)
Steigerung der
Ressourcenproduktivität
Rückgang der
traditionellen Landwirtschaft
Zunehmender
Tourismus
Tertiärisierung
Wachsendes
Umweltbewußtsein
Erhöhung der
Mobilitätsbereitschaft
Zunehmendes
Partizipationsinteresse
Sensibilisierung für
globale Probleme
Zunahme der internat. sozialen
und ökonomischen Disparitäten
Soziale und ökonomische
Ausgrenzung
Emanzipation der Frau
Individualisierung
Zunahme fundamentalistischer Strömungen
Ausbreitung westlicher
Konsum- und Lebensstile
PSYCHOSOZIALE SPHÄRE
Rückgang traditioneller
gesellschaftlicher Strukturen
Institutionalisierung
von Sozialleistungen
Zunahme ethnischer
und nationaler Konflikte
Demokratisierung
Zunahme der internationalen
Abkommen und Institutionen
Bedeutungszunahme
der NRO
Verstärkung des
nationalen Umweltschutzes
Zunahme der strukturellen
Arbeitslosigkeit
GESELLSCHAFT. ORGANISATION
Internationale
Verschuldung
Industrialisierung
Zunehmender
Zunahme der
Protektionismus
Welthandelsströme
Ausbreitung der
Globalisierung
Steigerung der
Geldwirtschaft
der Märkte
Nahrungsmittelproduktion
Wachsendes
Zunahme umweltverträglicher
Verkersaufkommen
Wirtschaftsweisen
Aufbau technischer
Zentralisung WirtschaftsGroßprojekte
politischer Strategien
Ausbau der
Verkehrswege
Politikversagen
Anspruchssteigerung
Steigerung der
Kapitalintensität
Intensivierung von Ausbildung
und Qualifikation
Wissens- und
Technologietransfer
Medizinischer
Fortschritt
Fortschritt in der
Informationstechnologie
Verbesserung des
technischen Umweltschutzes
Entwicklung regenerativer
Energie und Rohstoffe
Wachsendes
Technologierisiko
Automatisierung,
Mechanisierung
Fortschritt in der Biound Gentechnologie
Entwicklung neuer Werkstoffe,
stoffliche Substitution
TECHNIK / WISSENSCHAFT
Stand: 1999
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke
Patterns by Inspection
Environmental degradation by rural-poverty driven overexploitation
of marginal sites
Vicious Circle: Impoverishment → Extension of Agriculture → Soil
degradation → Reduction of Yield → Impoverishment
Patterns by Inspection – The Sahel Syndrome
Originally postulated Syndromes (WBGU, 1997; Schellnhuber et al., 1997):
Utilization Syndromes
Sahel Syndrome
Overuse of marginal land
Overexploitation Syndrome
Overexploitation of natural ecosystems
Rural Exodus Syndrome
Degradation through the abondonment of traditional agricultural practices
Dust Bowl Syndrome
Non-sustainable agro-industrial use of soils and water bodies
Katanga Syndrome
Degradation through depletion of non-renewable resources
Mass Tourism Syndrome
Development and destruction of nature for recreational ends
Scorched Earth Syndrome
Environmental destruction through war and military action
Development Syndromes
Aral Sea Syndrome
Damage of landscape as a result of large-scale projects
Green Revolution Syndrome
Degradation through the transfer and introduction of inappropriate farming
methods
Asian Tiger Syndrome
Disregard of environmental standards in the course of rapid economic
development
Favela Syndrome
Socio-ecological degradation through uncontrolled urban growth
Urban Sprawl Syndrome
Destruction of landscape through planned expansion of urban
infrastructures
Disaster Syndrome
Singular anthropogenic environmental disasters with long-term impacts
Sink Syndromes
Smokestack Syndrome
Degradation through large-scale diffusion of long-living substances
Waste Dumping Syndrome
Degradation through disposal of waste
Contaminated Land Syndrome
Local contamination of environmental assets at industrial locations
Syndrome diagnosis
Spatial distribution of 7 (of 16) Syndromes (1990s, about 60 indicators)
Lüdeke et al., GAIA 13 (2004) no. 1
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke
How persistent is the Syndrome identification by „inspection“
against changes of the expert group?
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Comparison of WBGU/PIK list of syndromes and the
GEO_4/UNEP list of vulnerability archetypes
GEO_4/Chapter 8 authors:
Dhari Naser Al-Ajmi; Geoffrey Dabelko; Thierry de Oliveira; Indra De Soysa;
Richard Filcak; Des Gasper; Silvia Giada; Henk Hilderink; Jill Jäger; Sylvia
Karlsson; Marcel Kok; Liza Koshy; Matthias Lüdeke(Gerhard Petschel-Held);
Marybeth Long Martello; Jennifer Mohamed-Katerere; Vikrom Mathur; Ana
Rosa Moreno; Annet Nakyeyune; Vishal Narain; Alvaro Ponce; Sophie
Strasser; Frank Thomalla; Steven Wonink.
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke
11 Archetypes of vulnerability
Short Description
Common Pool Resources
Vulnerabilities that result from the over-use of Common Pool Resources (CPRs),
which happens because CPRs are difficult to protect and susceptible for overuse
that diminishes resource availability for all users
Potentially harmful situations that are not eliminated and where especially the
poorer sections of society are vulnerable to the negative consequences of this
situation.
The vulnerability of rural populations who depend directly on the land and natural
resources for their livelihoods to environmental and social change within dryland
areas.
The consequences of increasing global consumption and its harmful effects on
natural systems that makes it harder for the poorest on the planet to meet their
basic needs.
Export-crop driven land use change undermining the livelihood of ecosystem
dependent communities, without sufficient alternatives for them to overcome the
loss of livelihood base and little sharing of the benefits from the resource
exploitation.
The vulnerabilities to human well-being presented in the post-conflict period. The
breakdown of infrastructure, social order, and the rule of law in many post-conflict
settings increases the vulnerability of human-environment systems.
Availability of easy money for governments from resource rents drives
unsustainable use of resources without commensurate welfare gains for society.
Resource wealthy states tend to generate human vulnerability and ill-being through
the perpetuation of poverty and bad governance
Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to climate change impacts in
a broader context in which a suite of geographic, economic and social factors
interplay to create disproportionate vulnerabilities for all SIDS.
Vulnerability induced by the bad management or failure of centrally planned, largescale projects (like dams) involving deliberate reshaping of the natural environment.
Ambivalence: providing additional resources but having severe impacts on the
environment and society.
Rapid coastal urbanisation in the context of increasing
vulnerabilities to climate and weather-related hazards and climate
change in coastal areas that are often ecologically sensitive.
Contaminated sites - Legacies of the past
Desertification in Drylands
Exporting vulnerability
Global markets, local opportunities
(Post) Conflict induced Vulnerability
Resource Paradox
Small Island Developing States (SIDS)
Technological fixes of water problems
Urbanisation of the coastal fringe: balancing
environmental
risks
and
economic
opportunities
Vulnerability of Energy Production and
Consumption systems
in Industrialised
countries: the next energy crises?
0-Draft Chapter8/GEO_4
The ability (or lack thereof) of the energy production and consumption systems in
industrialised countries to fulfil (increasing) energy demand in a changing context of
security of energy supply, liberalisation and privatisation of the sector, impacts of
climate change and requirements to contribute to mitigation.
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke
Despite different groups and 10 years distance, 7/11
Archetypes can be found alomost exactly in the
syndrome list:
Vulnerability Archetype, GEO_4
Relation
Syndrome, WBGU/PIK
(Post)-conflict induced
vulnerability
=
Scorched Earth Syndrome
Technological fixes of water
problems
=
Aral Sea Syndrome
Urbanization of the coastal fringe
⊂
Favela ∪ Urban Sprawl
Desertification in drylands
⊂
Sahel Syndrome
Common pool resources
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Overexploitation Syndrome
Contaminated sites – legacies of
the past
=
Waste Dumping ∪ Contaminated
Land
Global markets, local
opportunities
⊂
Dust Bowl Syndrome
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke
Differences occur for the following archetypes (4/11)
due to actual events:
• Vulnerability of Energy Production and Consumption Systems in
Industrialised countries: the next energy crises?
due to a stronger development country perspective:
• Small Island Developing States
due to a stronger equity oriented perspective:
• Exporting Vulnerability
due to a more economistic perspective:
• Resource Paradox
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke
Mapping of Syndromes on Climate Change
Petschel-Held et al. in: Goals and Economic Instruments for the Achievement
of Global Warming Mitigation in Europe, Eds. Hacker/Pelchen, Kluwer 1999
Sahel-Syndrome: a problem – even without climate change!
Regions, generally vulnerable towards the mechanism:
Lüdeke et al., Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4 (1999)
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke
Regions, presently vulnerable towards the Sahel-Syndrome mechanism
Lüdeke et al., Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4 (1999)
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke
Niederschlag DJF unter A1B (AR4, WG I)
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke
Niederschlag JJA unter A1B (AR4, WG I)
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke
Objectives and short history of the Syndrome approach
Regions, where a presently low disposition is very sensitive against CC
Lüdeke et al., Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4 (1999)
Moldenhauer et al., ClimRes 21 (2002)
www.pik-potsdam.de/∼luedeke