viet nam`s intended nationally determined contribution

Transcription

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
Technical report
VIET NAM’S INTENDED
NATIONALLY
DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION
Hanoi, November 2015
Authors:
Nguyen Khac Hieu, Tran Thuc, Pham Van Tan, Huynh Thi Lan Huong,
INTRODUCTION
Nguyen Van Thang, Dao Minh Trang, Nguyen Van Minh, and Chu Thi Thanh Huong
Technical experts:
Nguyen Minh Bao, Nguyen Mong Cuong, Tran Anh Duong, Nguyen Thi Hai,
Hoang Manh Hoa, Vuong Xuan Hoa, Doan Thi Xuan Huong, Tran Mai Kien,
Dao Xuan Lai, Nguyen Lanh, Nguyen Cam Linh, Bui Huy Phung, Vu Tan Phuong,
Huynh Van Tam, Mai Van Trinh, Hoang Duc Trong, Le Nguyen Tuong
Anna Schreyoegg, Axel Michaelowa, Carsten Warnecke, Gesine Hansel,
Markus Hagemann, Matthias Honegger, Hannes Böttcher, Ralph O. Harthan, Jenty
Kirsch Wood, Koos Neefjes, Ian Wilderspin
Climate change is one of the most serious challenges to mankind. As a result, each country needs
to make a specific contribution to climate change response in order to protect the atmosphere
and ecosystems, and stabilise temperatures at a level that enables life for the current and next
generations.
As a country severely affected by climate change, Viet Nam has actively developed its Intended
Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment was
assigned by the Government to take the lead on this task and to cooperate with relevant Ministries
and sectors on the implementation. To that end, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
established an inter-sectoral working group made up of representatives from relevant Ministries,
sectors, scientists and Viet Nam Panel on Climate Change (VPCC) of the National Committee on
Climate Change.
A series of national and sectoral consultation workshops took place with the participation of
representatives of Ministries, non-governmental organisations, researchers, VPCC, enterprises
and international development partners, who all contributed to the draft INDC. The draft has been
considered and commented on by Ministries and sectors. Comments received by the Ministry of
Natural Resources and Environment were integrated into the final draft prior to submission to the
Prime Minister for approval. With the Prime Minister’s approval on 29 September 2015, Viet Nam’s
INDC was submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat on schedule.
Viet Nam’s INDC includes contributions to GHG emissions reduction efforts and climate change
adaptation, and consists of conditional and unconditional contributions. Unconditional contributions
can be implemented using domestic resources, while conditional contributions require international
financial, technical and capacity building support. In the socio-economic context of a developing
country impacted by climate change, Viet Nam strives to make ambitious yet realistic contributions.
The implementation of Viet Nam’s INDC requires the effective institutions, human resources,
technology and resources. Viet Nam gives the highest priority to the implementation of its
unconditional contributions. Support from the international community and the active participation
of the whole economy will be needed in order to implement the INDC’s conditional component.
On this occasion, I would like to express my gratitude to UNDP and GIZ for their supports in helping
Viet Nam develop a high quality INDC on time. I hope UNDP, GIZ and other development partners will
continue to support Viet Nam in the implementation of the INDC in the future.
Nguyen Minh Quang
Minister of Natural Resources and Environment
VIET NAM’S INTENDED NATIONALLY
III
CONTENT
INTRODUCTION
III
3.2.2. Climate change impacts
19
CONTENT
IV
3.2.3. Viet Nam’s greenhouse gas emissions
23
LIST OF ACRONYMS
VI
3.3. Greenhouse gas emission reduction component
27
LIST OF TABLES
IIIV
3.3.1. Greenhouse gas mitigation activities prior to 2020
27
LIST OF FIGURES
IX
3.3.2. GHG emission reduction targets for 2021-2030
28
I. OVERVIEW OF INDCS
01
3.3.3. GHG emission reduction options
28
1.1. Introduction
01
3.3.4. Impacts on socio-economic development and the environment
44
1.1.1. Development process
01
3.4. Climate change adaptation component
45
1.1.2. INDC and greenhouse gas emission reduction policies
03
3.4.1. Rationale for an adaptation component in Viet Nam’s INDC
45
1.2. INDCs in a new post-2020 global climate agreement
06
3.4.2. Climate change adaptation measures prior to 2020
46
1.2.1. INDCs in a new global climate agreement and post-2020 outlook
06
3.4.3. Climate change adaptation in 2021-2030
48
1.2.2. Summary of INDCs submitted by parties
08
3.4.4. Impacts of adaptation options on socio-economic development and the environment
50
II. VIET NAM’S INDC DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
11
IV. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF VIET NAM’S INDC
50
2.1. Management process
11
4.1. Mitigation options
50
2.2. Technical process
12
4.1.1. Opportunities
50
2.3. Consultation process
12
4.1.2. Challenges
51
III. VIET NAM’S INDC
16
4.2. Climate change adaptation options
52
3.1. Introduction
16
52
3.2. National context
17
4.2.2. Challenges
52
3.2.1. Overview
17
REFERENCES
53
IV
V
LIST OF ACRONYMS
ALU
Agriculture and Land Use software
GHG
Greenhouse gas
BAU
Business As Usual
LEAP
Long Range Energy Alternative Planning
CC
Climate change
LULUCF
Land use, land use change and forestry
MoIT
Ministry of Industry and Trade
MRV
Monitoring, Reporting and Verification
MoT
Ministry of Transportation
NAMA
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
MoST
Ministry of Science and Technology
SLR
Sea level rise
MPI
Ministry of Planning and Investment
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme
MoFA
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
MARD
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
VPCC
Viet Nam Panel on Climate Change
MoF
Ministry of Finance
WB
World Bank
MoNRE
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
MoC
Ministry of Construction
BUR1
Initial Biennial Update Report to UNFCCC
CBICS
Capacity Building and Support to the Implementation of the National Climate Change
Strategy
CCWG
NGO’s Climate Change Working Group in Viet Nam
CDM
Clean Development Mechanism
COMAP
Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process
COP
Conference of the Parties - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
NAMA project
Project on “Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions in Viet Nam”
EB
Executive Board on Clean Development Mechanism
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GPG-LULUCF
Good Practice Guidance of IPCC on land use, land use change and forestry
INDC
Intended nationally determined contribution
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
VI
VIET
VIET NAM’S
NAM’S INTENDED
INTENDED NATIONALLY
NATIONALLY
DETERMINED
CONTRIBUTION
VIET
VIETNAM’S
NAM’SINTENDED
INTENDEDNATIONALLY
NATIONALLY
DETERMINED
DETERMINEDCONTRIBUTION
CONTRIBUTION
VII
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1. Greenhouse gas emission reduction activities
04
Table 3.21. Mitigation options in the LULUCF sector implemented by international resources
40
Table 1.2. Differences among NAMA, INDC and GGS
05
Table 3.22. Assumptions used to assess the mitigation potential of waste options
40
Table 1.3. INDC summary of some countries with high emissions
08
Table 3.23. Assumptions for each waste treatment option
41
Table 1.4. INDC summary of some ASEAN countries
10
Table 3.24. Mitigation options in the waste sector implemented by domestic resources
42
Table 3.1. GDP per economic sector (2010 base year)
17
Table 3.25. Mitigation options in the waste sector implemented by international supports
42
Table 3.2. Industrial production per economic sector (2010 base year)
18
Table 3.26. GHG emission reduction targets by 2030 compared to BAU
43
Table 3.3. Final energy consumption per type of energy
18
Table 3.27. Aggregated financial needs for GHG emission reduction targets in 2021-2030
43
Table 3.4. Assumptions on power generation according to BAU
24
Table 3.5. GHG inventory in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030 for the energy sector
24
Table 3.6. GHG inventory in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030 for the agricultural sector
25
Table 3.7. GHG inventory in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030 for the LULUCF sector
25
Table 3.8. GHG inventory in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030 for the waste sector
26
Table 3.9. GHG emissions in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030
26
Table 3.10. Assumptions for mitigation options in the energy sector
29
Table 3.11. Mitigation potential and costs of mitigation options in the energy sector
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1. To keep the global average temperature rise below 2○C by 2100, total emissions should be
stabilised at less than 1,000GtC (IPCC, 2014)
01
Figure 1.2. International climate change negotiation process
02
Figure 1.3. INDC development process
03
Figure 1.4. Relationship between NAMAs, INDCs and GGS
06
Figure 1.5. Countries which already submitted INDCs
07
Figure 3.1. GHG emissions in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030 (MtCO2e)
27
30
Figure 3.2. Cost curve for mitigation options in the energy sector
31
Table 3.12. GHG emission reduction options in energy sector implemented by domestic funding
32
Figure 3.3. Marginal cost curve for mitigation options in the agricultural sector
35
Table 3.13. GHG emission reduction options in energy sector implemented by international support
32
Figure 3.4. Marginal cost curve of mitigation options in the LULUCF sector
39
Figure 3.5. Marginal cost curve of GHG emission mitigation options in the waste sector
42
Table 3.14. Assumptions for mitigation options in the agriculture sector
33
Table 3.15. Mitigation potential and costs of mitigation options in the agricultural sector
34
Table 3.16. Unconditional mitigation options in the agricultural sector
36
Table 3.17. Conditional mitigation options in the agricultural sector
36
Table 3.18. Assumptions for increased GHG removal in LULUCF
38
Table 3.19. Mitigation potential and costs of mitigation options in the LULUCF sector
38
Table 3.20. Mitigation options in the LULUCF sector implemented by domestic resources
39
VIII
IX
I. Overview of INDCs
During COP19 (1/CP.19, 2013), the parties decided “to call upon all parties to initiate or accelerate the preparation
of an intended nationally determined contribution (INDC)” and that “parties should submit their INDC before COP
21 (expected in the 1st Quarter of 2015) to facilitate the transparency and clarity of the determined contributions”.
1.1. Introduction
The parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are currently discussing
a new international agreement on climate change for the post-2020 period. According to the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in order to keep the global average temperature increase below 2oC by the end of
the century compared to the pre-industrialisation period, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions need to be stabilised
below 1,000 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by the end of the century (Figure 1.1). To meet this target,
developed countries need to drastically reduce their GHG emissions and developing countries have to make
specific contributions. In this context, the 19th Convention of the Parties on Climate Change (COP19) in Poland in
2013 called upon all parties to develop “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDC), including proposals
on GHG emissions reduction as a contribution to the targets in the UNFCCC.
1000
Temperature anomaly relative to 1861 - 1880 (oC)
5
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1997
IPCC
COP3
UNFCCC
......... 2005
.......
2006
Bali Roadmap:
Obj: to reach
a post-2020
Agreement in
2009
8000
Sign and
Ractify
2oC
2
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Post Copenhagen
Reconstruction
Copenhagen
Acord:
Declaration of
major economies
outside the UNFCCC
process
Cancum Agreement
Finance & mitigation target
for 2020, Institution on
ﬁnance adaptation &
technology transfer
CMP1
In
Effect
CMP2
CMP3
CMP4
CMP5
CMP6
Durban
Platform:
2nd
commitment
period under
KP, lunch
Durban
Platform to
reach new
Agreement
by 2015.
CMP7
First Commitment Period
(2008 - 2012)
CMP8
Durban Platform
Paris
Warsaw
Pathway
Doha
Gateway:
Effectice
closure of
Bali
Process:
details of
KP-2CP
CMP9
Deadline for a
Global
Agreement
for the post
2020 period
Lima Call for
Action:
INDC applied
to all
CMP10 CMP11
Second Period
(2013 - 2020)
• Intended: This refers to the fact that the contributions have not yet been legally approved and finalised as part
of a new post-2020 global climate agreement. In addition, it implies that the contributions are still open to
consideration and revision in the future.
1000
1500
2000
2500
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)
Source: IPCC, 2014
Figure 1.1. To keep the global average temperature rise below 2○C by 2100, total emissions should be stabilised at
less than 1,000GtC (IPCC, 2014)
1.1.1. Development process
The Kyoto Protocol is currently in its second phase of implementation (2013-2020). Since it is due to expire soon,
the parties to the Convention on Climate Change are presently discussing a new post-2020 international agreement
to limit the global average temperature increase to below 2oC. According to studies, if developed countries alone
undertake efforts to reduce GHG emissions, the 2oC target cannot be achieved and emissions will exceed the
threshold by 8 Gt CO2e. In order to limit the temperature increase to less than 2oC, developed countries will have
to make strong commitments to reduce GHG emissions and developing countries will have to make specific
contributions to these global efforts.
The INDC concept was developed during COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009 with a view to preparing a new global
climate agreement post-2020. The INDC represents the “contribution” of each party to the implementation of the
Convention on Climate Change. During the negotiation process, the Parties agreed to prepare INDCs in line with
the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in light of different national
circumstances”.
2010
Since the COP decisions do not set out a clear terminology for parties’ INDCs, their scope is unclear. However, the
following is clear from the term INDC itself:
1000 GtC
500
2009
Figure 1.2. International climate change negotiation process
1
0
2008
Original Bali
Process
Kyoto
Protocol
3
2007
COP11 COP12 COP13 COP14 COP15 COP16 COP17 COP18 COP19 COP20 COP21
4
0
01
1988 ......... 1992
• Nationally determined: “Nationally determined” means that the contributions should be developed by countries
themselves rather than through a common decision.
• Contribution: The INDCs, as regulated in Warsaw, have to be seen as a contribution to achieving the targets of
the Convention. They will help minimise and stabilise the GHG concentration in an effort to protect the earth’s
atmosphere. These efforts are essential for the adaptation of natural ecosystems to climate change, for food
production and for sustainable economic development. INDCs also contribute to national objectives related
to the transition towards a low-carbon economy, including energy efficiency, reforestation and air quality.
In addition, INDCs enable the parties to frame their own national contributions as part of the global efforts
undertaken by all the parties. The term “contribution” does not affect the legal status of the extent or form of
contribution. According to developing countries, the contributions can also include measures of adaptation,
financing, capacity building, support and technology transfer in addition to “GHG emission reduction”. The
contribution period can be short- (<5 years), medium- (6-10 years) and long-term (10 years and more).
At present, there is no clear guidance on the scope of INDCs. However, countries understand that INDCs should
contain national GHG emission reduction targets to help stabilise the atmosphere and limit the global average
temperature increase (Article 2, targets of the Convention on Climate Change). Many developing countries expect
the INDCs to include information about adaptation measures, finance and other issues.
Therefore, the INDCs represent an important entry point for the preparation of the negotiation of a new post-2020
global climate agreement in Paris (France). The term “contribution” can be understood as an agreement among
developed countries to commit, and as an agreement among developing countries to reduce GHG emissions in line
with the national context. COP20 (2014) determined that the INDCs should be considered as the responsibilities
of the Parties with regard to tackling common tasks but based on national capacities and contexts. In general, the
02
Table 1.1. Greenhouse gas emission reduction efforts
INDCs inform the international community’s efforts to address CC and reach the 2oC target.
COP13
Bali. (2007)
NAMA: taken in
the context of
sustainable
development
and supported
by finance
technology, and
capacity
development
COP15
Copenh. (2009)
NAMA should
be
implemented
in a MRV
manner.
The idea of
INDC is
emerged.
COP16
Cancun. (2010)
NAMA
implemented
by developing
countries
using their
own
resources
(domestically
supported
NAMA).
COP17
Durban. (2011)
Launching
for
developing a
legal
agreement
under the
Convention
coming into
force for all
Parties; GCF.
COP18
Doha. (2012)
Consider the
draft text
before the
COP21.
COP19
Warsaw. (2013)
Invites all
Parties to
prepare INDC
submit before
5/2015
INDC will
become
Appendix of
2015
Agreement.
COP20
Lima. (2014)
INDC
Applicable to
all, regardless
Annex | or
Non Annex |.
Figure 1.3. INDC development process
1.1.2. INDC and greenhouse gas emission reduction policies
1) INDCs and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)
Since COP13 (2007), the international community has adopted a new approach to GHG emission reduction in
developing countries, namely the “Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)”.
NAMAs are applied voluntarily and in support of sustainable development. NAMAs are determined by practical
experience rather than the rules of the Convention on Climate Change, aiming to reduce GHG emissions by 2020
compared to the “business as usual” (BAU) scenario. Based on the methods used to mobilise funds, NAMAs fall
into one of two categories: unilateral NAMAs and supported NAMAs. Based on the credit methods, NAMAs are
either a direct credit NAMAs or an indirect credit NAMAs (policy NAMAs).
The roles of NAMAs in the new post-2020 global climate agreement can be summarised as follows:
• NAMAs can be a part of national climate change mitigation efforts and the Green Growth Strategy, a means for
international technical and financial support, and a tool for implementing international commitments under the
new post-2020 global climate agreement.
• NAMAs comply with the principles of the new post-2020 global climate agreement: it requires the participation
of relevant parties, the inclusion of diversified efforts and the possibility to combine different tools, such as
market mechanisms and other commitments.
• At present, a number of mechanisms support NAMA development and implementation, such as the NAMA
Facility and the Green Climate Fund (GCF).
• NAMAs can be transformed or mainstreamed into a country’s INDC and link to other mechanisms within the
Convention on Climate Change.
The elicitation of national GHG emission reduction efforts for Annex I and Non-Annex I Parties is summarised in
Table 1.1. Prior to 2020. NAMAs is considered as a means to help developing countries implement GHG emission
reduction efforts. Post-2020, all Parties have to implement their own INDCs.
03
Timeline
Prior to 2008
Annex I
Quantitative GHG
Economy-wide GHG emission reduction
emissions reduction targets according
to Kyoto Protocol
targets
(Period 1)
Non-Annex
Voluntarily mitigate
GHG emissions
2008-2012
2013-2020
Post 2020
Quantitative GHG
emission reduction
targets according
to Kyoto Protocol
(Period 2)
INDC
NAMA
The relationship between NAMA and INDC can be summarised as follows:
• NAMA can be actions to implement INDC;
• NAMA can be an entry point for the determination of INDC;
• NAMA can be considered a “contribution”, which means that once an INDC becomes a commitment NAMA will
no longer be voluntary efforts;
• Parties who already submitted NAMAs that contain GHG emission reduction targets under the Copenhagen
agreement can transfrom them into their INDC.
INDCs and NAMAs are closely linked, but they are not the same thing: NAMAs are voluntary (a key to this approach’s
success) and INDCs are implicitly legally binding (especially when INDCs are converted into official commitments).
However, in combination, NAMAs and INDCs represent a flexible framework to diversify GHG emission reduction
efforts while also contributing to national development strategies.
NAMAs can be considered as a part of INDCs and represent an entry point for determining INDCs using a bottom
up approach. If NAMAs contain clear objectives, they can be an important tool for the implementation of a
country’s INDC. Therefore, a country’s INDC acts as a general target while NAMAs clarify necessary action. INDCs
can accelerate NAMA development and implementation.
2) NAMA, INDC, and Green Growth Strategy
The development and implementation of a Green Growth Strategy (GGS) is considered a comprehensive, integrated
and effective part of national planning, which also prioritises GHG emission reduction efforts and facilitates
mainstreaming into a long-term policy framework.
The core elements of a GGS are: (1) policy tools to determine prioritised national GHG emission reduction activities;
(2) a focus on meeting development targets through GHG emission reduction activities; and (3) improvements to
the policy framework to strengthen private investment in GHG emission reduction.
NAMAs and INDCs are considered crucial tools for the implementation of a GGS:
• NAMAs imply GHG emission reduction efforts that are adapted to national capacities and contexts, which means
that NAMAs can be considered as GGS-based national short-term and medium-term targets (in the period of
2012-2020). The NAMA concept is therefore a tool for mainstreaming short- and medium-term targets into action plans for the implementation of GGS.
• Similarly, INDCs are also determined based on national capacities and contexts for reducing GHG emissions
post-2020. Therefore, INDCs can be considered as a short-term and medium-term target for implementing GGS.
However, as a comprehensive method, INDCs include their own GHG emission reduction objectives, strategies
and plans, which in turn can strengthen the objectives of the GGS.
04
Table 1.2. Differences between NAMA, INDC and GGS
Definition
NAMA
INDC
GGS
Is a voluntary action that
supports sustainable
development
Is a national contribution to
international climate change
commitments
Is a policy tool to determine
emission sources and prioritise
GHG emission reduction
options
Components • Projects;
• Policy framework and
strategies;
• R&D;
• Commitments;
• Two types of NAMA:
unilateral and funded;
including financing,
technology transfer and
capacity building
Implications
• The wide definition of
NAMA prioritises practical
experience over the rules
of the Convention on
Climate Change;
• Includes GHG emission
reduction targets by 2020
in comparison to BAU
scenario;
• Funded using domestic
resources, bilateral and
multilateral cooperation
and public budgets to
attract private investment
• Quantitative GHG emission • Green growth strategy/
climate change strategy;
reduction objectives for
all the sectors of the
• National development plan;
economy;
• Reduction compared to
BAU scenario;
• Sustainable development
strategy;
• Reduction of emission
intensity (GHG/GDP, GHG/
per capita);
• Energy strategy
• GHG emission reduction
measurement policies
• Contribution to GHG
emission reduction efforts;
• Policy document at the
national level;
• Long-term strategy, developed
• Includes adaptation,
by local stakeholders,
financing, capacity building
which aims to combine
and technology support
economic growth and social
and transfer;
development with GHG
• In general, INDC can be
emission reduction efforts;
considered a community
• Strengthens legal basis for
effort to solve CC issues;
the private sector to invest
• Based on a comparison
in GHG emission reduction
between GHG reduction
efforts;
efforts and 2°C target;
• Long-term, dynamic, long• Applicable from 2020
lasting process (over the
onwards
course of numerous years
and decades);
• Requires a national voluntary
GHG emission reduction
commitment, e,g, reduction
compared to BAU or base year
In short, NAMAs and INDCs are short- and medium-term objectives, while the GGS is national long-term strategy
for climate change resilient socio-economic growth. NAMAs are a tool for implementing GHG emission reduction
efforts into national long–term strategy as part of the INDC (Figure 1,4).
Long-term
strategy
Green growth strategy (GGS)
Commitment
Commitment
R
O
A
M
E
t
M
M
D
h
D
e
N
Activities/
Tools
INDC
A
r
R
N
A
M
E
M
M
D
A
D
Reduction targets
O
t
h
e
r
N
R
K
N
R
A
M
E
h
A
M
E
M
M
D
á
M
M
D
D
c
A
A
D
O
t
h
e
r
Figure 1.4. Relationship between NAMAs, INDCs and GGS
In conclusion, NAMA is considered as a part of INDC, an entry point to determine INDC using bottom-up approach.
Developing countries can use NAMA as a tool to implement INDC. INDC is considered as general targets and NAMA
are specific activities to achieve those targets. From this point of view, NAMA can continue to be implemented
as a part of INDC after 2020. The capacity and institution to determine, develop and implement NAMA include
measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) can help INDC development and implement GHG emission
reduction to meet INDC targets.
INDC is considered as short – term and medium – term targets to implement GGS and sustainable development.
INDC is a method for countries to determine and implement GHG emission reduction and climate change
adaptation. For developed countries, GHG emission reduction targets are applicable for the whole economy.
For developing countries, targets can be GHG emission reduction in compared with BAU, or emission intensity
reduction compared with GDP at base year. For least developed countries, targets can be policy framework and
sectorial objectives to facilitate GHG emission reduction.
Climate change adaptation is also a component of INDC. Good climate change adaptation can achieve effectiveness
and efficiency not only within a locality or a region but also cross-border. Good adaptation will reduce damages and
losses, increase resilience and contribute better for GHG emission reduction.
1.2. INDCs in a new post-2020 global climate agreement
1.2.1. INDCs in a new global climate agreement and post-2020 outlook
The new climate change agreement will be “applicable for all parties”. This means that in contrast to the Kyoto
Protocol’s GHG emission reduction commitments for parties of Annex I only, the new post-2020 agreement will be
applicable to all parties to the Convention on CC.
According to developed countries. INDCs should only consist of GHG emission reduction efforts; while most
developing countries (except least developed countries) agree that INDCs should contain all components. This
means that each country’s adaptation needs are closely connected to the global GHG emission reduction efforts.
The mitigation components of the INDCs will be considered as the national commitments to GHG emission
reduction efforts during a certain period of time. Even though the new agreement will apply to all Parties, their
GHG emission reduction efforts will vary based on the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities in light of different national circumstances”.
Recommendations for the new agreement include quantitative GHG emission reduction targets (regardless of
development status) and policies, as well as renewable energy and energy efficiency targets for least developed
countries. Parties can propose targets, including short- and long-term targets, and can add more information on
domestic measures to strengthen pre-2020 GHG emission reduction efforts.
During COP20 (2014), the Parties agreed that INDCs should be transparent and accountable. They should include
05
06
information on the base year, timeline, implementation scope, assumptions and approaches (especially for the
determination of GHG emission reduction targets). Furthermore, they should explain why the respective countries
consider their contribution as fair and appropriate for the national context but sufficient enough for the overall
targets of UNFCCC. In addition, the Parties called upon developed countries and international organisations to
support the INDC development and implementation process if necessary. Lastly, the Parties requested the UNFCCC
secretariat to publish the INDCs via their online portals and to consolidate national INDC reports in October 2015.
1.2.2. Summary of INDCs submitted by parties
Table 1.3 and Table 1.4 summarise the INDCs of large emitters and ASEAN member states.
Table 1.3. Summary of large emitters’ INDCs
Country
Emissions in 2011
incl, LULUCF
(MtCO2e)
Australia
685.1
"Under a Paris Agreement applicable to all. Australia will implement an
economy-wide target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below
2005 levels by 2030".
Canada
847.1
"Canada intends to achieve an economy-wide target to reduce its greenhouse
gas emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030".
China
10,684.3
The INDCs include absolute values on GHG emission reduction targets compared to a base year; GHG emission
reduction targets compared to the “BAU” scenario; emission intensity reduction per economic output unit; GHG
emission reduction per capita; or policy framework and solutions relevant to GHG emission reduction. Some INDCs
specify unconditional and conditional measures, with unconditional referring to domestically funded action while
conditional action requires international support.
"China has nationally determined its actions by 2030 as follows: To achieve
peak carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and undertake efforts to peak
early; to lower carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65% below
2005 levels; to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy
consumption to around 20%; and to increase the forest stock volume by
around 4,5 billion cubic meters above the 2005 levels. Moreover, China will
continue to proactively adapt to climate change by enhancing mechanisms
and capacities to effectively protect against climate change risks in key areas,
such as agriculture, forestry and water resources, as well as in cities, coastal
areas and ecologically vulnerable areas, and to progressively strengthen
early warning and emergency response systems and disaster prevention and
reduction mechanisms".
European
Union
(28)
4,263.2
According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2015), if the Parties strictly comply with their INDC
commitments, the average global temperature may only increase by 2.5 - 2.7oC by 2100.
"The EU and its Member States are committed to a binding target of an at least
40% domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared
to 1990, to be fulfilled jointly, as set out in the conclusions of the European
Council in October 2014".
India
2,887.1
India communicated the following Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
for the 2021-2030 period: “To put forward and further propagate a healthy and
sustainable way of living based on traditions and values of conservation and
moderation; to adopt a climate friendly and a cleaner path than the one followed
hitherto by others at corresponding levels of economic development; to reduce
the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% by 2030 below 2005 levels; to
achieve 40% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel
based energy resources by 2030 with the help of transfer of technology and
low cost international finance including the Green Climate Fund (GCF); to create
an additional carbon sink of 2,5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through
additional forest and tree coverage by 2030; to better adapt to climate change
by enhancing investments in development programmes in sectors vulnerable to
climate change, particularly agriculture, water resources, the Himalayan region,
coastal regions, health and disaster management; to mobilise domestic and new
& additional funds from developed countries to implement the above mitigation
and adaptation actions in view of the resources required and the resource gap; to
build capacities, create a domestic framework and an international architecture
for the quick diffusion of cutting edge climate technology in India and for joint
collaborative R&D for such future technologies”.
The Parties also agreed on the main content of INDCs as well as a deadline for countries willing to implement
their INDCs to submit their contribution in the first quarter of 2015 or “as soon as possible” prior to COP21 (in
Paris in 2015) for all other Parties. However, in many developing countries the development of an INDC requires
international support. Given the limited availability of financial support in 2015, the funds for INDC development
support were low.
By the unofficial deadline of 1 October 2015, more than 150 countries had submitted their INDCs to the UNFCCC
secretariat, accounting for 90% of global GHG emissions. The remaining countries, of which emissions account for
10% of global GHG emissions, have not yet submitted their INDCs.
The INDC approach is considered a breakthrough in the CC negotiations. For the first time, almost all the Parties
have expressed their intended commitment to GHG emission reduction. The level of contributions received far
exceeds previous commitments and announcements of the Parties.
More than 150 countries – accounting for about 90% global economic activities and nearly 90% energy-related GHG
emissions – have submitted their INDC. In terms of geographical distribution, all the North American and almost
all European countries have submitted their INDCs. Approximately 90% of African countries, 66% of developing
countries in Asia, 60% of South American countries and 33% of Middle Eastern countries have submitted their
INDCs. These countries account for approximately 90% of the global fossil fuel demand and 80% of the global
fossil fuel production volume.
Figure 1.5. Countries which already submitted INDCs
INDC summary
Source: CAIT Climate Data Explorer; http://cait,wri,org/indc/
07
08
Japan
1,207.3
"Japan’s INDC for post-2020 GHG emission reductions sets out a reduction
of 26% by 2030 below 2013 levels (25,4% reduction below 2005 levels,
approximately 1,042 billion tCO2e in 2030), while ensuring consistency with
its energy mix, based on a feasible reduction target that combines bottomsup calculations with concrete policies, measures and individual technologies
that take technological and cost limitations into consideration based on
the amount of domestic emission reductions and removals assumed to be
obtained".
Republic
of Korea
661.4
"The Republic of Korea plans to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by
37% compared to the business-as-usual scenario (BAU, 850,6 MtCO2e) in all
economic sectors by 2030," This INDC includes a section on adaptation.
Russia
2,216.6
"Limiting anthropogenic greenhouse gases in Russia to 70-75% below 1990
levels by the year 2030 might be a long-term indicator, subject to the maximum
absorption capacity of forests".
USA
6,135.0
"The United States intends to achieve an economy-wide target of reducing its
greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels in 2025 and to make
best efforts to reduce its emissions by 28%".
Table 1.4. Summary of ASEAN countries’ INDCs
Country
Emissions in 2011
incl, LULUCF,
(MtCO2e)
Cambodia
49.1
"Cambodia wishes to propose a GHG mitigation contribution for the
period 2020-2030, conditional upon the availability of support from the
international community, in particular in accordance with Article 4,3
of the UNFCCC. Significantly, despite Cambodia's status as an LDC.
Cambodia is implementing actions in accordance with its sustainable
development needs that also address climate change: (i)Energy
industries, manufacturing industries, transport, and other sectors:
Cambodia intends to undertake actions as listed in Table 1, the impact
of which is expected to be a maximum reduction of 3,100 GgCO2e
compared to the baseline emissions of 11,600 GgCO2e by 2030; (ii)
LULUCF: Cambodia intends to undertake voluntary and conditional
action to achieve the target of increasing forest coverage to 60%
of the national land area by 2030. In absence of any action, the net
sequestration from LULUCF is expected to decline to 7,897 GgCO2 in
2030 compared to the projected sequestration of 18,492 GgCO2 in
2010". This INDC also includes an adaptation component.
Indonesia
1,981.0
"Indonesia has committed unconditionally to reduce its greenhouse
gases by 26% compared to the business as usual scenario by 2020,
Indonesia is committed to reducing its emissions by 29% compared
to the business as usual (BAU) scenario by 2030". Conditional target:
"Indonesia's target should encourage support from the international
community, which is expected to help Indonesia increase its
contribution to an emissions reduction of 41% by 2030". Indonesia
also submitted an annex on "Indonesia Climate Resiliance Strategy",
including “Indonesia's Vulnerability to Climate Change” and “Priority
Action for Climate Resilience".
Lao PDR
36.3
"Lao PDR (People’s Democratic Republic) has identified a number
of measures which it intends to undertake in order reduce its future
GHG emissions, subject to the provision of international support.
These are outlined in Table 1 along with preliminary estimates on the
projected emission reductions. These estimates have been taken from
a variety of sources and need to be reviewed and updated in order to
ensure consistency and accuracy". This INDC includes an adaptation
component.
Myanmar
184.7
"Myanmar would undertake mitigation actions in line with its
sustainable development needs, conditional on the availability of
international support, as a contribution to the global efforts to reduce
the future emission of greenhouse gases. The document also presents
planned and existing policies and strategies which comprise the policy
framework for implementing identified action and prioritising future
mitigation action". This INDC also includes an adaptation component.
Source: CAIT Climate Data Explorer; http://cait,wri,org/indc/
09
INDC summary
10
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand
Viet Nam
157.6
56.1
375.7
251.2
"The Philippines intends to undertake GHG (CO2e) emissions reduction
efforts of 70% by 2030 compared to its BAU scenario for 2000-2030.
Reductions in CO2e emissions will come from the energy, transport,
waste, forestry and industry sectors. The mitigation contribution is
conditional based on the extent to which financial resources, including
technology development and transfer, and capacity building, are made
available to the Philippines". This INDC also includes an adaptation
component.
"Singapore communicates that it intends to reduce its emissions
intensity by 36% from 2005 levels by 2030, and stabilise its emissions
with the aim of peaking around 2030". Singapore also submitted an
annex with accompanying information on its national context and
adaptation efforts.
"Thailand intends to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20%
compared to the projected business-as-usual scenario (BAU) by 2030.
The level of contribution could increase up to 25%, subject to adequate
and enhanced access to technology development and transfer,
financial resources and capacity building support through a balanced
and ambitious global agreement under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)". This INDC also includes an
adaptation component.
"With the use of domestic resources, Viet Nam will reduce its GHG
emissions by 8% by 2030 compared to the BAU scenario. The emission
intensity per unit of GDP will be reduced by 20% compared to 2010
levels; forest coverage will increase to 45%. The above-mentioned
contribution could be increased up to 25% with international support".
This INDC also includes an adaptation component.
Source: CAIT; http://cait,wri,org/indc/
II. Viet Nam’s INDC development process
Viet Nam was one of the first developing countries to start its INDC development process. The Government tasked
MONRE as the leading ministry to develop Viet Nam’s INDC in coordination with MPI, MoF, MoIT, MARD, MoT, MoC,
MoFA and MoST.
Viet Nam’s INDC development process was threefold: (i) Management process; (ii) Technical process; and (iii)
Consultation process.
working group. The working group includes 16 representatives from MoNRE, MARD, MPI, MoF, MoFA and MoIT.
International cooperation: INDC development was supported by UNDP through the “Capacity Building and Support
to the Implementation of the National Climate Change Strategy” project (CBICS) and the GIZ project “Nationally
Appropriate Mitigation Actions in Viet Nam”. At the same time, the Climate Change Working Group (CCWG) and
other international organisations in Viet Nam contributed to the INDC via the consultation process on the draft
INDC.
2.2. Technical process
Viet Nam’s INDC development process comprised four technical steps:
• Determine and analyse existing information;
• Determine and analyse prioritised GHG emission reduction measures ;
• Determine and analyse prioritised adaptation measures;
• Develop INDC.
2.3. Consultation process
Viet Nam’s INDC working group organised a series of writing retreats and consultation workshops with relevant
agencies. VPCC and international partners in Viet Nam.
The working group members participated in international fora and shared their experience in INDC development.
From August 2014 to October 2015, the INDC working group organised a number of technical meetings, writing
retreats and expert and stakeholder consultation workshops in order to finalise Viet Nam’s INDC.
Viet Nam’s INDC development process can be divided into the 3 following phases: (i) development phase; (ii)
consultation phase; and (iii) dissemination phase.
Development phase
An INDC kick-off workshop was held in Hanoi on 11 August 2014 with the participation of representatives from
MoNRE, MPI, MARD, MoT and other development partners. The workshop introduced the concept of INDCs for
the first time, including the different approaches to INDCs all over the world; the relationship between INDCs, CDM
and NAMAs; and Viet Nam’s challenges in developing its INDC. The workshop also provided initial information on
Viet Nam’s efforts to prepare its INDC, including the key elements of the INDC report, which includes mitigation
and adaptation components. In addition, delegates from other line ministries also had the chance to present their
mitigation efforts as a basis for the development and implementation of Viet Nam’s INDC.
2.1. Management process
• The Government assigned MoNRE with presiding over and cooperating with MPI and relevant Ministries/sectors
to study, review and assess the impacts of mitigation options.
• Prime Minister assigned the Steering Committee on Implementation of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol to
serve as the focal point and coordinate with Viet Nam Negotiation Board on Climate Change to develop Viet
Nam’s INDC as a contributution to the new global climate agreement post-2020 (Document No. 1454/VPCPQHQT, issued on 11 August 2014 by the Government’s Office).
• MoNRE issued Decision No. 119/QD-BTNMT dated 22 January 2015 on the establishment of Viet Nam’s INDC
11
12
In addition to these technical meetings, the INDC working group also organised 6 writing retreats, which lasted
between 3-7 days and brought together the INDC working group and technical experts to draft Viet Nam’s INDC
and the INDC Technical Report.
Image 2.1. INDC kick-off workshop
Subsequently, the inception workshop on “Viet Nam’s INDC’s Mitigation Component” was held on 10 February 2015 to
disseminate information on and discuss the approach to the mitigation analyses conducted in the sectors of energy,
agriculture, waste and Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) as part of the GHG emission reduction component
of Viet Nam’s INDC and to facilitate dialogue between stakeholders via technical discussions in break-out groups,
In April 2015, the mid-term workshop on “Viet Nam’s INDC’s Mitigation and Adaptation Components” was held to
present the preliminary results of the mitigation and adaptation analyses and to receive feedback from relevant
line ministries and stakeholders.
Between August 2014 and October 2015, more than 8 technical meetings were organised by the INDC working
group at the Institute of Meteorology. Hydrology and Climate Change (IMHEN) and the Department of Meteorology.
Hydrology and Climate Change (DMHCC). The purpose of these meetings was to discuss and decide upon the
content of Viet Nam’s INDC, to devise an action plan for the development of the INDC, to address the shortcomings
of the draft INDC report and to set out a future vision for Viet Nam’s INDC.
Image 2.2. INDC technical meeting
13
Image 2.3. Writing retreat
Consultation phase
After a period of time with working extremely actively and effectively, the INDC working group completed a draft of
Viet Nam’s INDC and the INDC technical report and submitted it to the Viet Nam Panel on Climate Change (VPCC),
relevant ministries and stakeholders for commenting.
The Consultation Workshop on the draft report on Viet Nam’s INDC with VPCC was organised on 18 May 2015.
During the workshop, the INDC working group received a number of comments from the VPCC, representatives of
relevant Ministries and sectors, CCWG and development partners.
Image 2.4. Consultation workshop with VPCC and relevant stakeholders on Viet Nam’s INDC
14
Based on VPCC’s comments, the INDC working group finalised Viet Nam’s INDC and circulated the updated INDC
reports to line Ministries for commenting. The Second Consultation Workshop on Viet Nam’s draft INDC was held
on 8 July 2015 to present the progress made on Viet Nam’s INDC and the INDC technical report. Subsequently,
MoNRE also received comments by official documents from line ministries. The INDC working group took these
comments into consideration for the finalisation of the INDC report.
Dissemination phase
Thanks to MONRE’s guidance and leadership, the efforts of the INDC working group and technical experts, and
the active participation of ministries, institutions, civil society, research institutions and international development
partners. Viet Nam submitted its INDC to the UNFCCC Secretariat ahead of schedule. Viet Nam’s INDC can be
accessed online at.
http://www4,unfccc,int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Viet%20Nam/1/VIET NAM’S%20INDC,pdf,
The INDC annoucement workshop was held in Hanoi on 12 October 2015. Workshops on “Viet Nam’s contribution
to a new global climate agreement” were organised in Ho Chi Minh City (23 October 2015) and Da Nang (30
October 2015) respectively.
Image 2.6. “Viet Nam’s contribution to a new global climate agreement” workshop in Ho Chi Minh City
Image 2.5. Viet Nam’s INDC annoucement workshop in Ha Noi City
Image 2.7. “Viet Nam’s contribution to a new global climate agreement” workshop in Da Nang City
III. Viet Nam’s INDC
3.1. Introduction
Viet Nam is considered one of the countries the most seriously affected by climate change, especially due to
rising sea levels. Recognising the importance of climate change response. Viet Nam has proactively implemented
a number of climate change response measures to ensure the safety of citizens and property; to promote low–
carbon economy development, green growth and sustainable development; and to join forces with the international
community to actively implement the UNFCCC and contribute to global efforts to stabilise the atmosphere and
limit the average global temperature increase to less than 2°C by the end of the 21st century.
15
16
In line with COP19’s Decision No. 1/CP.19. dated 31 January 2014, and the corresponding responsibilities assigned
by the Prime Minister via Official Letter No. 1454/VPCP-QHQT (issued by the Government Office on 11 August
2014). Viet Nam’s Steering Committee for the implementation of the UNFCCC and KP has collaborated with the
Climate Change Negotiation Team and other relevant line ministries to develop Viet Nam’s Intended Nationally
Determined Contribution, which is expected to be adopted at COP21 in Paris, France, in late 2015.
On 22 January 2015. MoNRE issued Decision No. 119/QD-BTNMT on the establishment of Viet Nam’s INDC
working group, which includes 16 representatives of MoNRE, MARD, MPI, MoF, MoFA and MoIT, Viet Nam has
received financial and technical support for the development of the INDC’s adaptation component through the
project “Capacity Building for the Implementation of the National Climate Change Strategy (CBICS, funded by
UNDP)” and for the development of the mitigation component through the GIZ project “Creation of an overarching
framework for NAMAs and MRV in Viet Nam”, which is funded by the German Government.
The development of an INDC highlights Viet Nam’s commitment to climate change response as a non-Annex I
Party to the Convention on Climate Change. Viet Nam’s INDC sets out the contribution’s objectives, scope and
components, as well as GHG emission reduction and climate change adaptation targets for the 2021-2030 period
and other related information.
industrialised country by 2020 since industries and services will account for 85% of GDP, The value of high-tech
products and high-tech applications accounts for approximately 45% of total GDP.
Table 3.2. Industrial production per economic sector (2010 base year)
Unit: billion VND
Year
Total
Local
FDI
2009
2,681,900.2
112.5
445,527.7
69,569.8
1,050,172.5
1,116,630.2
2010
2,963,499.7
110.5
497,407.4
69,700.6
1,150,867.3
1,245,524.4
2011
3,233,178.2
109.1
559,828.3
68,279.9
1,238,729.7
1,366,340.3
2012
3,516,651.7
108.8
617,098.7
67,160.1
1,329,276.3
1,503,116.6
Viet Nam’s total final energy consumption increased from 43,202 KTOE in 2008 to 47,873 KTOE in 2012. The
changes in final energy consumption per energy type from 2008-2012 are shown in Table 3.3.
1) Geographical features
Viet Nam is located in South-East Asia. The country’s mainland territory ranges from 8°27’ to 23°23’ North and
102°8’ to 109°30’ East, and occupies a total land territory of 331,051km2 and a marine territory of approximately 1
million km2 with over 3.000 islands and archipelagos of varying sizes, including the Paracel Islands (Da Nang City
municipality) and the Spratly Islands (in Khanh Hoa Province).
2) Socio-economic context
• Economic context
Table 3.3. Final energy consumption per type of energy
Unit: KTOE
Fuel type
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Coal
8,289
8,966
9,893
9,647
8,390
13,819
15,851
17,080
15,297
14,896
540
639
493
894
1,438
5,844
6,615
7,461
8,140
9,063
Non-commercial energy
14,710
14,704
13,875
13,938
14,086
Total
43,202
46,775
48,802
47,916
47,873
Oil
Viet Nam’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 is is presented in Table 3,1, using
2010 as a base year.
Table 3.1. GDP per economic sector (2010 base year)
Unit: billion VND
2008
Central
Non–State
owned
Transportation has also witnessed rapid growth, with road transport accounting for the highest share of passenger
and cargo transportation, followed by water-borne transport.
3.2.1. Overview
Total
State economy
Source: Statistical yearbook 2012. General Statistics Office 2013
3.2. National context
Year
Including
Development
index (Previous
year = 100) - %
In which
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
Industry and construction
Services
1,923,749
387,262
726,329
810,158
2009
2,027,591
394,658
769,733
863,200
2010
2,157,828
407,647
824,904
925,277
2011
2,292,483
424,047
879,994
988,442
2012
2,412,778
435,414
930,593
1,046,771
Gas
Electricity
Source: Power Master Plan VII (CPVN, 2011); National Target Programme on Energy saving and Eficiency in the
period of 2012-2015 (CPVN, 2012b)
Approximately 10,1 million ha of land was used for agricultural production in 2010, equivalent to 31% of the country’s
total area. On an annual basis, the total rice cultivation area accounted for 7,5 million ha, with an output of 40 million
tonnes in 2010 and 43,7 million tonnes in 2012, which ensured national food security and continued exports.
Forests covered 13,388,100 ha, a coverage rate of 39,5%, in 2010, with natural forests accounting for 10,304.800
ha and plantation forests accounting for 3,083.300 ha. Forest areas and coverage rates increased gradually from
2008 to 2012.
Source: Statistical Yearbook 2011, 2012; General Statistics Office 2012, 2013
• Population
GDP per capita increased from USD 1,168 in 2010 to approximately 1,200 in 2012.
2013 statistics show that Viet Nam’s population totalled 89,70 million, 50,24 million of whom were of working age,
i,e, 15 and above. The average population density was 271 people per km2 at a population growth rate of 1,05%
and a life expectancy of 73,1.
According to the national socio-economic development strategy for 2011-2020. Viet Nam is set to become an
17
18
3.2.2. Climate change impacts
3) Climate change impacts
1) Climate change in Viet Nam
• Water resources
Over the past 50 years, Viet Nam’s average annual temperature has increased by about 0,5°C, while rainfall has
declined in the North but increased in the South.
In recent years, discharges from rivers and streams in Viet Nam have fallen short of the average water levels.
In some places, water levels have fallen by as much as 60-90%, reaching an all-time low and leading to water
shortages in agricultural production and salinity intrusion into estuaries (Nguyen Van Thang, 2010; Tran Thanh
Xuan et al., 2011).
The temperature is increasing in most regions, except for some coastal areas in the Central and Southern regions,
such as Thua Thien-Hue, Quang Ngai and Tien Giang. In addition to temperature declines, these regions are also
experiencing increased rainfall during the dry and wet seasons.
Rainfall during the dry season (November-April) is increasing only slightly or has remained unchanged in the North
and is increasing rapidly in the South. Rainfall during the wet season (May-October) decreased by 5-10% in most of
the North and by 5-20% in the South. Annual rainfall changes are similar to rainfall changes during the wet season,
with increases in the South and decreases in the North. Rainfall during the dry and wet seasons and annual rainfall
have increased by more than 20% in Southern and Central Viet Nam, which is the most significant change in
comparison with other regions. Cases of extreme rainfall have become more frequent in almost all climate zones,
especially in recent years. The total number of days with heavy rainfall is also on the rise.
The number of tropical cyclones in the East Sea is increasing slightly, but no trend can be observed with regard
to the cyclones that impact or make landfall in Viet Nam. The number of strong storms (Grade 12+) is increasing.
Droughts, including dry months and the dry season, are on the rise, but the increase depends on the regions and
climate zones. The number of hot sunny days is increasing significantly in many regions, especially in Central and
Southern Viet Nam.
Hydrographic stations have determined an average increase in sea level along Viet Nam’s coast of 2.8 mm/year.
Satellite sea level measurements from 1993-2010 show an average sea level rise in Viet Nam of 2.9 mm/year.
2) Climate change scenarios
According to the medium emission scenario, by the end of the 21st century Viet Nam will undergo the following
changes (MoNRE. 2012):
• Temperature: the average temperature is expected to increase by 2-3°C in most parts of the country. Ha Tinh
and Quang Tri Provinces in particular will see a more rapid temperature increase than other provinces. The
average minimum temperature will increase by 2.2-3°C and the average maximum temperature will increase
by 2-3.2°C, The number of days with highest temperature above 35°C will increase from 15 to 30 days in most
parts of the country.
• Rainfall: annual rainfall is expected to increase by 2-7% in most parts of the country, with a somewhat a lower
incline of just under 3% in the Central Highlands and the Southern Central Coastal region. In general, rainfall will
decline during the dry season and increase during the wet season. Compared to 1980-1999, the maximum daily
precipitation will be higher in the North and the Northern and Central Coastal regions and lower in the Southern
Central Coastal and Southern regions, as wel as in the Central Highlands. However, rainfall anomalies will also
continue to occur, with cases of extreme rainfall expected to double compared to current records.
• Sea level rise: the average sea level is expected to rise by 57-73cm, with the highest increase forecast at 6282cm from Ca Mau to Kien Giang Provinces and the lowest forecast at 49-64 cm from Mong Cai to Hon Dau
Provinces.
According to the high emission scenario (A1FI), by the end of the 21st century, the average sea level is expected
to rise by 78-95cm, with the highest increase forecast at 85-105cm from Ca Mau to Kien Giang Provinces and the
lowest forecast at 66-85 cm from Mong Cai to Hon Dau Provinces.
According to MoNRE’s climate change scenario (MONRE, 2012), river discharge will likely increase by approximately
5% on the Red River. Thai Binh River and Ca River, and by 4-12% on the Mekong River in the 2040-2059 period.
During the flood season, discharge on the Red River. Thai Binh River, Ca River, Ba River and Thu Bon River will likely
increase by 2-9%, but could possibly decline by 4-7% on Dong Nai River. The Mekong River’s average discharge
could increase by 5-11% during the flood season (in Kratie) and by 10% during the dry season (in Tan Chau)
compared to 1985-2000 (Tran Thanh Xuan et al,, 2011). During the dry season, the average discharge will likely
decline by less than 1,5% on Da. Gam and Hieu Rivers, by 10% on Ba River, and by 3-10% on other rivers (Tran Thuc
and Hoang Minh Tuyen, 2011). Climate change could cause a significant reduction in groundwater, especially post2020, due to overuse and declining groundwater recharge during the dry season. In the Mekong River Delta, if river
flows decrease by 15-20% in the dry season, the current groundwater level could drop by as much as 11 meters
(MoNRE, 2010).
In river basins, especially in downstream areas, floods occur with increased frequency and severity. Annual peak
discharges tend to increase continuously in the majority of river basins, except for some areas, such as the
downstream areas of the Red River in Thai Binh Province and the Ba River due to reservoir and dam regulations.
The coastal zones in Central and Southern Viet Nam have experienced flooding and extreme flooding with a higher
frequency and severity. Record-level floods occured in 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2008 and 2009 along the
central coastline, and in 1996, 2000, and 2001 in the Mekong Delta.
Flash floods and landslides occur more frequently and more severely in the Northern and Central Coastal regions
as well as the Central Highlands. According to the National Steering Committee for Flood and Storm Prevention
and Control, from 1989 to 2007 debris flows happened on an annual basis, with a total of 194 floods causing
damages worth 1,860 billion VND.
In the context of climate change, rainfall patterns are changing and becoming unpredictable, therefore leading to
high risks of floods and flash floods.
In the Mekong Delta, saltwater has intruded as far as 60-70km into rivers, which poses a significant challenge to
local livelihoods and production. For example, in early 2010 saltwater with a salinity of 3%-6% intruded more than
20km inland in some districts in Bac Lieu and Soc Trang Provinces, spoiling over 20,000 ha of spring rice and
polluting freshwater used to irrigate over 45,000 ha. In Hau Giang Province, salinity levels reached 7% (IMHEN and
UNDP, 2015).
By the end of the 21st century, salinity rates of 1% are expected to intrude into Dong Nai. Tien and Hau Rivers by
20km and into Thai Binh River by approximately 10km (IMHEN and UNDP, 2015). By the middle of 21st century,
areas with over 4% salinity rates are expected to account for 45% of the total area of the Mekong Delta, an increase
of nearly 400,000 ha compared to the 1990-1999 average. Approximately 60% of natural areas will be affected by
salinity rates of 1% and more, an increase of 450,000 ha compared to current levels. Nearly four fifths of the Ca
Mau peninsula will be affected by salinity intrusion, except for the Western part of Hau River (Tran Thanh Xuan et
al,, 2011).
In recent years, serious droughts have become more common in many parts of the country, mainly concentrated
in the spring cultivation season (January-April) and the summer cultivation season (May-August) (MoNRE, 2012).
Records droughts with serious social and economic costs include the droughts in 1997-1998, 2004-2005 and
2010 (Phan Van Tan et al,, 2010).
In the future, severe droughts will become even more common in many regions in Viet Nam. Droughts are expected
19
20
to increase throughout the 21st century at a high frequency in serious drought areas, such as the Southern Central
region and the Central Highlands, and at a relatively low frequency in other regions (Nguyen Van Thang et al.,
2010). In 2011-2050, droughts will occur with increased frequency and severity in the Central region (Vu Thanh
Hang et al., 2011). By 2020, the hydrographic drought index may increase by approximately 0.3-0.6 in the North
and by 0.6-0.9 in the South Central Region during dry months and the dry season; however, droughts may occur
more intense (IMHEN and UNDP, 2015).
• Agriculture
In the absence of climate change adaptation measures, agriculture will be affected by climate change as follows:
If the sea level rises by 1m, rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta and Ho Chi Minh City is at risk of losing 40,5% of the
region’s total yield. According to the medium climate change scenario, the spring rice yield could decrease by 716.6
kg per ha by 2050, which means spring rice production could decline by 2,16 million tonnes, while summer-autumn
rice production could decline by 795kg per ha. This would cause a general decline in production of 1,475 thousand
tonnes. Maize yields could shrink by 781,9kg per ha, resulting in a production decline of 880,4 thousand tonnes,
Soybean yields fall by 214,81 kg per ha, or 37,010 tonnes of production (Dinh Vu Thanh et al,, 2014).
Agricultural cultivation will be limited due to the impact of sea level rises on grain production, which poses a
threat to animal feed production. Higher temperatures make plants and grow quicker, which means they lose their
nutrients more quickly (Dinh Vu Thanh et al,, 2014).
Fish stocks are also at risk due to higher temperatures. Furthermore, rising sea levels will inundate most of the
Mekong and Red River Deltas by 2070 and cause adverse impacts on aquaculture. Inundated ponds and lakes
could suffer from a complete loss of stock. Climate change will alter cultivation seasons, increase diseases and
decrease yields. It will also reduce the variety of aquatic resources and degrade soil quality (Dinh Vu Thanh et al.,
2014).
Climate change also has significant impacts on infrastructure, i,e, fishing ports, storm shelters or oil and gas
stations along the coastlines, and fishing boats.
• Forestry
The potential impacts of climate change on the forestry sector include: Increased risks of forest fires, changes in
the distribution of natural forest ecosystems, and harmful impacts on plantation and mangrove forests (Vu Tan
Phuong et al., 2010; WB, 2010; Pham Minh Thoa et al., 2012; Tran Van Dat et al., 2013).
The risk of forest fire is increasing in all parts of the country, but especially in the Northwestern. Northern Central
regions and the Central Highlands. Forest coverage has increased in Viet Nam, but forest quality has declined.
Primary forest is estimated to account for only 7% of total forest areas (FAO, 2012). Degraded secondary forests,
which are extremely prone to fires, account for nearly 70% of the total forest area. It is estimated that approximately
6 million ha of forest are at high risk of forest fire. The types of trees most at risk of catching fire include pine,
melaleuca, bamboo, eucalyptus, and dipterocarp (Vu Tan Phuong, 2010).
Some natural forest ecosystems (e,g, dipterocarp forests, mangrove forests, semi-evergreen closed forests and
evergreen broadleaf closed forests) are at risk of altered distribution areas (reduced and/or expanded) due to
climatic changes. The risk of reduced distribution areas for dipterocarp, mangrove and semi-evergreen closed
forests is quite high (Trevor H,Booth et al., 1999; Vu Tan Phuong, 2008; WB, 2010; Pham Minh Thoa et al., 2013).
Due to the impacts of climate change, the climate zones suitable for dipterocarp will decline to 4,6% by 2020 and
to 1,5% by 2050 before possibly disappearing from the Central Highlands by 2100.
In the Red River Delta, climatic changes and rising sea levels will reduce mangrove forest coverage due to the
drastic increase in coastal erosion, for example in the coastal areas of Do Son, Hai Hau, Nghia Hung Provinces and
parts of Giao Thuy Province (Tran Van Dat et al., 2013). This is exacerbated by physiological and environmental
changes that some plant species in mangrove forests cannot adapt to, such as tidal submergence, salinity and
temperature. In Southern provinces, especially in the Mekong Delta, mangrove forests are also heavily affected,
21
with reduced forest coverage caused by sea level rises and changes in salinity regime and levels. Climate change
also impose negative impacts biodiversity and forest growth.
Semi-evergreen closed forest ecosystems are heavily affected by climate change. By 2020, the distribution area for
this type of forest is expected to decline significantly in the Northern Central region. By 2050, this forest ecosystem
may no longer exist in the Northern Central region and may only be found in the Southern Central region and
the Central Highlands. Changes in climate will only minimally affect the distribution area of evergreen broadleaf
closed forest ecosystems. By 2020 the climatic conditions of the Central Highlands and the Southern region will
still support the distribution of this forest ecosystem. In fact, this ecosystem will continue to expand in the Central
Highlands and the Southern region by 2050 and 2100.
In the 2010-2050 period, changes in climatic conditions may have positive impacts on the expansion of climate
zone suitable for plant species typical of this ecosystem (Pham Minh Thoa et al., 2013). Climate change can
significantly reduce the growth of acacia mangium in the South (by 10-27%), especially in the Eastern Southern
region and the Mekong River Delta, However, in the North this species is expected to grow by 10-30% (Auro C,
Almeida et al, 2014).
Increased temperatures exacerbate the risk of caterpillar epidemics and other pests in pine forests and other
plantations. The likelihood of pine caterpillar epidemics will increase by 10% in 2020, by 13% in 2050 and by 31%
in 2100 compared to 2000 (Nguyen The Nha et al,, 2008).
Other climate change risks are related to deforestation and forest degradation.
4) Vulnerability and exposure to increasing natural hazards
Vulnerability and exposure to natural hazards are context-specific. Combined with hazards, vulnerability and
exposure creates risks (IPCC, 2012). Climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme events, and
thereby increases the exposure and vulnerability of ecosystems and social systems. In Viet Nam, climate change
will increase extreme events, natural disasters, exposure and vulnerability. Depending on geographical conditions
and the impacts of different factors, vulnerable groups and the magnitude of vulnerability vary. Across the board,
the most vulnerable areas include agriculture and food security, ecosystems, biodiversity, water resources, public
health, residential areas and infrastructure. According to the National Target Programme to Respond to Climate
Change (CPVN, 2008a), all regions of Viet Nam are vulnerable to increasing natural disasters, but the Mekong
Delta, the Red River Delta and the Central coastline are particularly vulnerable.
In the Mekong River Delta, intense debris flows in the middle of the 21st century combined with a sea level rise of
30cm would increase inundation by 25% compared to 2000. Nearly 90% of the Mekong Delta’s ecosystems will be
inundated (Tran Thanh Xuan et al., 2011).
Regardless of geographic region. low-income earners, ethnic minorities, climate-reliant livelihoods, the elderly,
women, children and people with disabilities are the most vulnerable to climate change (McElwee et al., 2010).
5) Increasing risks
Increasing risks and potential impacts of climate change on sectors, areas, communities and infrastructure are
seen as follows:
Viet Nam’s 3,000km coastline and islands will be subject to the highest risks and most severe impacts of climate
change and sea level rises.
Similarly, risks will increase for the plains and large cities, especially in coastal areas, due to high population density
and shortcomings in urban/spatial planning with regard to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Furthermore,
these areas have the highest concentration of assets, infrastructure and vulnerable groups.
Meanwhile, the central coastline, the Southern Central region, the Northern Delta region and the Central Highlands
will face higher risks and be more vulnerable to droughts, water shortages and desertification (IMHEN and UNDP,
2015).
22
On average, Viet Nam is affected by 6-7 storms every year. From 1990 to 2010, 74 debris flows occurred on
river systems, Severe droughts, salinity intrusion, landslides and other natural hazards hinder the development of
many regions. In recent years, extreme events have become more frequent, costing lives and causing economic
damage (MoNRE, 2014), According to the high emission scenario, by the middle of the 21st century, the number
of extremely hot days will increase to 20-30 days, and by the end of the century, heat waves (i,e, extremely hot
temperatures for 3 consecutive days or more) are expected to increase in most parts of the country, especially in
the South and the Central Highlands, with up to 6-10 heat waves a year (MoNRE, 2012).
Droughts are likely to occur more frequently and for longer periods during the 21st century in most climate zones.
With higher temperatures and more extreme weather events, storms from the East Sea that affect Viet Nam could
reduce in frequency but increase in intensity. The number of intense storms will also increase. The number of cold
days will likely decline, but the number of cold periods is most likely to vary drastically from year to year (IMHEN
and UNDP, 2015).
Prolonged hot and dry periods pose high risks of forest fires. Statistics from the Viet Nam Administration of
Forestry show that Viet Nam lost an average of 6,000ha of forest due to forest fires annually in the 1992-2013
period. The increasing number of extreme cold days and hoar frost (such as in 2008) have killed hundreds of
hectares of Acacia plantation in Northern provinces (i,e, Quang Ninh, Bac Giang and Lang Son Provinces). Storms
and tropical typhoons have pulled up hundreds of hectares of acacia, eucalyptus and rubber plantations. Intense
storms combined with flood tides have resulted in coastal erosion and damages to mangrove forests.
Table 3.4. Assumptions on power generation according to BAU
Unit: billion kWh
2010
2020
2030
Large-scale hydropower
27.8
64.6
64.6
Coal-fired thermal power
17.9
163.5
422.4
Gas-fired thermal power
45.3
81.5
107.8
3.3
3.3
3.3
Nuclear power
0
6.9
70.1
Imported energy
0
9.9
26.4
94.3
329.7
694.6
Renewable energy
Total
• Results: the results of calculation of GHG emission in Energy Sector is presented in Table 3.5
Table 3.5. GHG inventory in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030 for the energy sector
2010 (MtCO2e)
2020 (MtCO2e)
2030 (MtCO2e)
1 Total
141.2
389.2
675.4
According to the GHG inventory presented in 2014’s BUR1, the main GHG emission sources/carbon sinks in
Viet Nam are: engery, agriculture, LULUCF and waste. The BAU scenario was developed based on the medium
economic development scenario, energy demand per sector, GDP growth per sector. GDP structure per sector,
population growth, forest area and forest land, livestock sizes and cultivation areas in 2020-2030, Revised 1996
IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 1997) and the “Good Practice Guidance and
Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories” (GPG 2000) were used to measure and forecast
GHG emissions/removals for 2020 and 2030.
1A Fuel combustion
124.3
355.7
620.3
1A1 Energy industries
41.1
171.3
404.4
1A2 Manufacturing industries and construction
38.1
69.3
92.5
1A3 Transport
31.8
87.9
87.9
1A4a Commercial/institutional
3.3
8.4
12.1
1) Energy
1A4b Residential
7.1
16.5
20.5
1A4c Agriculture/forestry/fishing
1.6
2.3
2.9
16.9
33.5
55.1
2.2
16.0
18.5
14.7
17.5
36.6
3.2.3. Viet Nam’s greenhouse gas emissions
• Data, methodologies and assumptions:
The 2000 “IPCC Good Practice Guidance” was used to calculate and project GHG emissions in the energy sector
by 2020 and 2030 (MoNRE, 2014).
Projections on energy demand were taken from the National Master Plan for Power Development for the 20112020 period with a vision to 2030 (CPVN, 2011b), The emission factors set out in the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines
for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and IPCC Good Practice Guidance were applied.
Viet Nam’s BAU scenario for GHG emissions was developed based on the assumption of economic growth in the
absence of existing climate change policies. Thus, the electricity produced from renewable energy is expected to
remain constant in 2021-2030 (3,3 billion kWh). The BAU scenario starts from year 2010 and includes the energy,
agriculture, waste, and LULUCF sectors.
GHG source categories
1B Fugitive emissions
1B1 Solid fuels
1B2 Natural oil and gas
Source: MoNRE, 2014
2) Agriculture
Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and Good Practice Guidance and
Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories were used for the calculation and projection of
emissions in agriculture by 2020 and 2030 (MONRE, 2014).
• Results: The results of calculation of GHG emission in Agriculture Sector is presented in Table 3.6
23
24
Table 3.6. GHG inventory in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030 for the agricultural sector
Source: *MoNRE, 2014b,**MoNRE, 2014a
2010 (MtCO2e)
2020 (MtCO2e)
2030 (MtCO2e)
88.3
100.8
109.3
18.0
24.9
29.3
4C Rice cultivation
44.6
39.3
39.9
4D Agricultural soils
23.8
33.9
37.3
-
-
-
1.8
2.5
2.6
Total
4A Enteric fermentation
4B Manure management
4E Prescribed burning of savanna
4F Burning of agricultural residue on fields
4) Waste
The revised 1996 IPCC Guideline for national GHG inventories and GPG2000 were used for the calculation and
projection of emissions in the waste sector by 2020 and 2030 (MoNRE, 2014).
• Results: the results of calculation of GHG emission in Waste Sector is presented in Table 3.8
Table 3.8. GHG inventory in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030 for the waste sector
2010 (MtCO2e)
2020 (MtCO2e)
2030 (MtCO2e)
15.4
26.6
48.0
Total emissions
3) LULUCF
6A CH4 emissions from solid waste landfills
5.0
12.1
29.2
6B1 CH4 emissions from industrial wastewater
1.6
3.7
5.9
6B2 CH4 emissions from domestic wastewater
6.8
8.1
9.3
The GHG emissions and removals in the LULUCF sector in 2020 and 2030 were calculated and projected using
the Good Practice Guidance for Land Use. Land-Use Change and Forestry (GPG-LULUCF 2003)” (MoNRE, 2014).
6B N2O emissions from human sewage
1.8
2.5
3.2
0.065
0.198
0.334
The parameters were taken from the GPG-LULUCF (2003). However, some parameters for Category 5A (Forest
land) were taken from the RCFEE initial research report on GHG inventories in forestry. UN-REDD reports and
consultations with Vietnamese forestry experts.
• Results: the results of calculation of GHG removals in LULUCF Sector is presented in Table 3.7
2010 (MtCO2e)
2020 (MtCO2e)
2030 (MtCO2e)
Total
-19.2
-42.5
-45.3
5A, Forest land
-22.5
-50.3
-53.1
5A1, Forest land remaining Forest land
-22.5
-50.3
-53.1
IE
0
0
5B, Cropland
-4.6
-1.6
-1.6
5B1, Cropland remaining Cropland
-5.7
-4.2
-4.2
5B2, Land converted to Cropland
1.1
2.5
2.5
5C, Grasslands
0.3
0
5A2, Land converted to Forest land
5) Business as usual scenario at the national level
The BAU scenario at the national level for 2010-2030 is the aggregatio of the BAU scenarios for the energy,
agriculture, LULUCF and waste sectors. The GHG emissions under the BAU scenario are shown in Table 3,9 and
Figure 3.1.
Table 3.7. GHG inventory in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030 for the LULUCF sector
GHG source and sink categories
6C CO2 emissions from waste incineration
Table 3.9. GHG emissions in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030
Unit: MtCO2e
2010*
2020**
2030**
141.1
389.2
675.4
Agriculture
88.3
100.8
109.3
Waste
15.4
26.6
48.0
0
LULUCF
-19.2
-42.5
-45.3
Total
225.6
474.1
787.4
5C1, Grasslands remaining Grasslands
1.4
0
0
5C2, Land converted to Grasslands
-1.1
0
0
5D, Wetlands
0.9
0.5
0.5
5D1, Wetlands remaining Wetlands
0.5
0.5
0.5
5D2, Land converted to Wetlands
0.3
0.02
0.02
5E, Settlements
1.5
6.6
6.6
5E1, Settlements remaining Settlements
NE
0
0
5E2, Land converted to Settlements
1.5
6.6
6.6
5F, Other land
5.1
2.1
2.2
5.1
2.1
2.2
Energy
5F1, Other land remaining Other land
5F2, Land converted to other land
25
26
• NAMA development and implementation;
900
• The application of technologies to reduce GHGs, especially in the agricultural sector;
800
• Access to national and international funding for mitigation activities.
700
3.3.2. GHG emission reduction targets for 2021-2030
600
In order to contribute to the global efforts to achieve the global climate agreement post 2020 as well as to protect
the Earth’s climate system and reach the goal of limiting average temperature increase less than 2°C in 2100. Viet
Nam has identified GHG emission reduction targets for 2030 compared to the BAU scenario, which was developed
based on the assumption of economic growth in the absence of existing climate change policies. The BAU starts
from 2010 (the latest year of the national GHG inventory) and includes the energy, agriculture, waste, and LULUCF
sectors. Viet Nam’s intended contribution to GHG emission reduction efforts in 2021-2030 is as follows:
500
400
300
200
100
• Unconditional contribution: With domestic resources, by 2030 Viet Nam will reduce its GHG emissions by 8%
compared to BAU, in which:
00
-100
2010
LULUCF
2020
Waste
Agriculture
2030
Energy
Total
Figure 3.1. GHG emissions in 2010 and projections for 2020 and 2030 (MtCO2e)
3.3. Greenhouse gas emission reduction component
»» Emission intensity per unit of GDP will decline by 20% compared to 2010 levels;
»» Forest coverage will increase to the level of 45%;
• Conditional contribution: The above-mentioned 8% contribution could be increased to 25% if international
support is received through bilateral and multilateral cooperation, as well as through the implementation of new
mechanisms under the Global Climate Agreement, in which emission intensity per unit of GDP will be reduced
by 30% compared to 2010 levels.
3.3.1. Greenhouse gas mitigation activities prior to 2020
In order to achieve the above targets, a number of GHG emission reduction options have been developed for the
energy, agriculture, waste and LULUCF sectors.
Viet Nam was one of the first countries to ratify the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol and has been proactively
implementing mitigation measures.
3.3.3. GHG emission reduction options
In October 2015, with 257 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects registered and accredited by the CDM
Executive Board (EB). Viet Nam ranked 4th in the world in terms of the numbers of projects, with a total GHG
emission reduction potential of approximately 137,4 MtCO2e, With 13,068.642 Certified Emission Reductions
(CERs) granted by the EB, Viet Nam ranks 11thin the world.
The Government has issued numerous policies on energy saving and efficiency, such as the “National Target
Programme on Energy Saving and Efficiency” (2006) or the Law on “Economical and Efficient Use of Energy”
(2010). The Government has prioritized policies, such as renewable energy development, consistent with Viet
Nam’ s mitigation potential and conditions, in order to contribute to energy security and environmental protection.
Policies encouraging energy saving and effciency in production and daily life, through the application of energy
saving and renewable energy technologies, are also a priority.
Viet Nam has undertaken significant efforts in terms of forest protection, afforestation and reforestation, and
participates in the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, sustainable management of
forests, conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+),
Viet Nam is currently developing and preparing for the implementation of NAMAs, as well as the registration and
implementation of carbon credit projects based on the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) and the Gold Standard (GS).
Although Viet Nam has already made significant efforts to implement mitigation measures, it still faces a variety
of difficulties and challenges with regard to the following issues:
• The establishment of a national GHG inventory and Measurement. Reporting and Verification (MRV) systems
at all levels;
27
National GHG emission reduction options for the 2021-2030 period were determined for the energy, agriculture,
waste and LULUCF sectors. Viet Nam’s intended contribution to mitigation was idenfied in two cases: (i) without
international support and (ii) with international support via bilateral and multilateral cooperation and new
mechanisms under the New Global Climate Agreement.
Viet Nam selected and analyzed mitigation options based on specific criteria. For mitigation without international
support, the selection criteria include (i) low investment requirement, (ii) past implementation in Viet Nam, and (iii)
alignment with the relevant sector development plan for 2021-2030.
Options with international support were selected based on (i) high investment rate; (ii) new technology that is not
common in Viet Nam; and (iii) alignment with priorities of donors.
a) Energy
• Data, methodologies and assumptions
The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model was used for the development of mitigation
scenarios in the energy sector. This model allowed for the analysis of the energy system in terms of supply and
demand, including sources of primary energy, as well as the transformation, distribution and use of energy. The
calculation was based on assumptions of GDP growth, population growth, historical energy consumption and
future energy prices published by the U,S, Energy Information Administration in 2014 (US EIA, 2014).
The GHG mitigation options were developed based on the BAU scenario, assuming that new policies will be
developed to support the application of mitigation technologies, including energy-saving and the deployment of
renewable energy. Mitigation options were assessed in terms of efficiency, incremental costs, mitigation potentials
28
and co-benefits compared to the BAU.
17 mitigation options were identified: 4 on energy-saving and renewable energy in households. 2 on energy-saving
and renewable energy in industry, 3 on energy-saving and renewable energy in transport, 1 on energy-saving and
renewable energy in commercial services and 7 on energy-saving and renewable energy for electricity production.
The options were assessed based on the current state of technology and its application, as well as the objectives
set out in sectoral development strategies, such as the National Energy Development Strategy, the Transportation
Development Strategy and the Power Development Plan VII.
Economic and technical parameters for each option, such as investment costs, operational and maintenance costs,
and fuel prices for the base year and 2030 were taken from relevant studies and publications. The assumptions
used for the calculation of 17 options are presented in Table 3.10.
Table 3.10. Assumptions for mitigation options in the energy sector
Option
Assumption
E1, High efficiency residential air
conditioning
By 2030, the use of high efficiency air conditioners will increase from 30% in
the BAU to 60% of total households in urban areas and from 15% to 32% in
rural households.
E2, High efficiency residential
refrigerators
By 2030, the use of high efficiency refrigerators will increase from 25% in the
BAU to 85% of total households in urban areas and from 10% to 75% in rural
households.
E3, High efficiency residential
lighting
By 2030, the use of power-saving lights (or LED lights) instead of incandescent
and fluorescent lights will increase from 15% in the BAU to 90% of total
households in urban areas and from 5% to 80% in rural households.
E4, Solar water heaters
By 2030, the use of solar water heaters will increase from 2% in the BAU
to 40% of total households in urban areas and from 1% to 15% in rural
households.
E13, Wind power plants by
domestic funding
By 2030, the wind power capacity will reach 100 MW (compared to BAU) to
replace coal-fired thermal power.
E14, Wind power plants by
international support
By 2030, the wind power capacity will reach 6,070 MW to replace coal-fired
thermal power.
E15, Biogas power plants
By 2030, the capacity for biogas power will reach 150 MW to replace coalfired thermal power.
E16, Ultra-supercritical coal
power plants
By 2030, 36 supercritical thermal power units will be installed using imported
bituminous coal with a capacity of 21,600 MW (equivalent to 47% of the
capacity of plants that use imported bituminous coal) to replace traditional
coal-fired thermal power.
E17, Solar PV power plants
By 2030, the solar power capacity will reach 2,000MW to replace imported
coal-fired thermal power.
• Results
Based on the input data and a discount rate of 10%, the LEAP calibration identified the following 17 energy options,
as shown in Table 3.11.
Table 3.11. Mitigation potential and costs of mitigation options in the energy sector
Mitigation potential
for the entire period
(MtCO2e)
Incremental Costs
(Million USD) *
Incremental cost
of GHG saved
(US$/tCO2e)
E1. High efficiency residential air
conditioning
12.4
-11.8
-4.3
E2. High efficiency residential
refrigerators
12.4
18.2
5.8
E3. High efficiency residential lighting
38.3
452.7
-43.6
Option
E5, Cement-making technology
improvements
New technologies will be applied to replace rotary kiln technology and will
account for up to 30% of cement production by 2030.
E6, Brick-making technology
improvements
New tunnel technologies will account for up to 65% of total brick production
using traditional technologies by 2030.
E4. Solar water heaters
16.6
7.7
1.9
E7, Substitution of ethanol for
gasoline in transport
By 2030, the use of ethanol will be 10% compared to 3% in the BAU, Ethanol
will be blended with petroleum for two-wheelers and petroleum-fueled cars.
E5. Cement-making technology
improvements
16.6
-162.7
-40.7
E8, Passenger transport mode
shift from private to public
By 2030, 15% of private motorbike use will be replaced with the use of public
urban buses and trams.
E6. Brick-making technology
improvements
19.0
-180.4
-33.4
E9, Freight transport switch
from road
By 2030, road cargo transportation will decline by 5% with a shift towards
sea-borne and river-borne transportation with the rates corresponding with
share of tonne-km of each transport mode in 2030.
E7. Substitution of ethanol for gasoline in
transport
14.2
162.5
40.3
E10, High efficiency commercial
air conditioning
By 2030, 3 million high efficiency air conditioners will be in use in the
commercial/service sector (e,g, workplaces, hotels and restaurants) to
replace traditional air conditioners.
E8. Passenger transport mode shift from
private to public
9.9
-928.9
-342.6
E9. Freight transport switch from road
26.7
-2.077.5
-295.5
E10. High efficiency commercial air
conditioning
11.1
-50.1
-15.5
E11. Biomass power plants
50.3
46.2
3.9
E11, Biomass power plants
By 2030 the capacity for thermal biomass power will reach 2,000 MW
(compared to 60MW in the BAU) to replace coal-fired thermal power.
E12, Small hydropower plants
By 2025, the capacity for hydropower will increase by 2,400 MW (compared
to BAU) to replace imported coal-fired thermal power.
29
30
83.7
-70.2
-3.3
2.7
43.2
49.1
71.8
817.9
50.4
4.4
2.9
2.9
E16. Ultra-supercritical coal power plants
79.8
530.4
32.1
E17. Solar PV power plants
12.3
409.7
160.1
E12. Small hydropower plants
E13. Wind power plants by domestic
funding
E14. Wind power plants by international
support
E15. Biogas power plants
* Current prices with a discount rate of 10%
2030 Cost Curve
$200
E17
$100
E7
E16
E1
$0
Cost ($/T CO2e)
E12
0
50
E3
100
E10
150
E4
200
E13
300
350
400
Mitigation potential in 2030
(ktCO2e)
No
Option
1
E3. High efficiency residential lighting
4,567.1
2
E5. Cement-making technology improvements
2,183.3
3
E6. Brick-making technology improvements
2,052.6
4
E9. Freight transport switch from road
3,601.7
5
E10. High efficiency commercial air conditioning
1,120.8
6
E1. High efficiency residential air conditioning
2,305.7
7
E8. Passenger transport mode shift from private to public
1,190.9
8
E12. Small hydropower plants
7,994.9
9
E4. Solar water heaters
2,570.4
10
E2. High efficiency residential refrigerators
1,694.7
11
E13. Wind power plants by domestic funding
E14
E15 E11 E2
250
Table 3.12. GHG emission reduction options in energy sector implemented by domestic funding
450
500
550
180.2
Total GHG emission reduction
E5 E6
29,462.3
* At 2010 prices with a discount rate of 10%
-$100
• Mitigation options with international supports
Table 3.13. GHG emission reduction options in energy sector implemented by international support
-$200
Option
-$300
E9
E8
E8
E9
E3
E5
E6
E10
E1
E12
E15
E11
E2
E16
E7
E13
E14
E17
-$400
CO2 Avoided (MtCO2e)
Figure 3.2. Cost curve for mitigation options in the energy sector
• Mitigation options by domestic funding
E4
Mitigation potential in
2030(ktCO2e)
7,002.2
1
E11. Biomass power plants
2
E14. Wind power plants by international support
10,926.4
3
E16. Ultra-supercritical coal power plants
14,222.8
4
E7. Substitution of ethanol for gasoline in transport
5
E15. Biogas power plants
6
Solar PV power plants
Total mitigation potential
6
E17. Solar PV power plants
Total GHG emission reduction
1,547.1
611.1
2,162.4
36,472.0
2,162.4
36,472.0
* At 2010 prices with a discount rate of 10%,
31
32
b) Agriculture
The Agriculture and Land Use (ALU) software was used for the development of the GHG mitigation options in the
agricultural sector. They were developed based on the BAU scenario, assuming that new policies are developed to
support GHG mitigation technologies. The GHG mitigation options were reviewed for efficiency, incremental costs,
mitigation potentials and co-benefits compared to the BAU scenario.
15 GHG mitigation options were identified and assessed. The economic and technical parameters for each
option taken from research studies, publications and implemented projects. The assumptions for the options are
presented in Table 3.14.
Table 3.14. Assumptions for mitigation options in the agriculture sector
Option
Assumption
A1. Increased use of biogas
500,000 biogas digester septic tanks will be built throughout the country,
This option is featured in the development plan for the agricultural and
rural development sector based on programmes run by SNV, LIPSAP,
LCAP and others.
A2. Reuse of agricultural residue as
organic fertiliser
A3. Alternate wetting and drying, and
improved rice cultivation system
(small scale)
A4. Introduction of biochar (small
scale)
A5. Integrated Crop Management
(ICM) in rice cultivation
A6. Integrated Crop management
(ICM) in upland annual crop
cultivation
A7. Substitution of urea with SA
fertiliser (Sulfate amon (NH4)2SO4)
33
Agricultural residue will be collected and processed into compost for
agricultural production, for example 50% of rice residue from 3,5 million
ha of rice cultivation areas. The technology is only applicable to residue
during the wet season.
Alternate wetting and drying technology and improved rice cultivation
will be introduced on 200,000 ha of irrigated rice cultivation. This
technology requires an irrigation infrastructure that allows for active
irrigation and drainage with high accuracy to meet specific crop needs,
It should be combined with other measures, e,g, seasonal production
arrangements, fertilisation, and sowing and planting.
Plant biomass will be carbonised and mixed into the soil to improve
fertility and increase carbon storage. This technology is mainly applicable
to residue during the dry season by carbonising plant biomass and
mixed it into the soil or making high quality manure, As an unconditional
option, biochar can be used on 200,000 ha of land.
Integration of numerous farming techniques that reduce and improve
the use of inputs (3 reductions and 3 improvement). This option can be
applied to 1 million ha of annual upland crops.
Integration of numerous farming techniques that reduce the use of
inputs, such as seeds, fertilisers and growth enhancers, as well as
improving productivity, quality and economic efficiency (3 reductions,
3 improvements). This option can be applied to 1 million ha of rice
cultivation areas.
Substitution of urea with SA fertilisers on an area of 2 million ha to
reduce N2O emissions.
A8. Reuse of upland agricultural
residues
Upland crop residue will be collected and processed into compost for
agricultural production using 25% of crop residue on 2,8 million ha of
crop cultivation areas.
improved rice cultivation system
(large scale)
Alternate wetting and drying technology and improved rice cultivation
will be introduced on 1,5 million ha of irrigated rice cultivation. This
technology requires an irrigation infrastructure that allows for active
irrigation and drainage with high accuracy to meet specific crop needs,
It should be combined with other measures, e,g, seasonal production
arrangements, fertilisation, and sowing and planting.
A10. Introduction of biochar (large
scale)
Plant biomass will be carbonised and mixed into the soil to improve
fertility and increase carbon storage. This technology is mainly applicable
to residue during the dry season by carbonising plant biomass and
mixed it into the soil or making high quality manure. As an unconditional
option, biochar can be used on 3,5 million ha of land.
A11. Improvement of livestock diets
Improvements to the diets of 22,000.000 ruminant cattle will help
reduce methane emission caused by the rumen fermentation process.
A12. Improvement of quality and
services available for aquaculture,
such as inputs and foodstuff
This option applies to 1 million ha of aquaculture.
A13. Improvement of technologies in
aquaculture and waste treatment in
aquaculture
This option applies to 1 million ha of aquaculture.
A14. Improved irrigation for coffee
Improved technologies and irrigation procedures for 640,000 ha of
coffee cultivation throughout Viet Nam to strengthen mitigation impacts.
A15. Improved technologies in food
processing and waste treatment in
agriculture, forestry and aquaculture
Improved technologies in food processing and waste treatment in crop
cultivation, livestock production and aquaculture nationwide.
• Results:
Based on the input data, the calculations identified the mitigation potentials and costs per tCO2e for the 15 different
options compared to the BAU scenario.Table 3.15 presents the mitigation options for the agricultural sector.
Table 3,15, Mitigation potential and costs of mitigation options in the agricultural sector
in2030 (MtCO2e)
Mitigation cost * (USD/
tCO2)
A1, Increased use of biogas
3.17
43.0
A2. Reuse of agricultural residue as organic fertiliser
0.36
63.0
A3. Alternate wetting and drying, and improved rice
cultivation
0.94
88.0
A4. Introduction of biochar
1.07
75.0
Option
34
A5. Integrated Crop Management (ICM) in rice
cultivation
0.50
20.0
A6. Integrated Crop management (ICM) in upland
annual crop cultivation
0.32
25.0
Table 3.16. Unconditional mitigation options in the agricultural sector
Scale
Mitigation option
1,000 ha
3.2
30.0
A8. Reuse of upland agricultural residue
0.29
73.0
A1. Increased use of biogas
7.02
94.9
A2. Reuse of agricultural residue as organic fertiliser
18.80
80.5
1.75
23.6
A12. Improvement of quality and services available for
aquaculture, such as inputs and foodstuff
0.41*
90.0
A13. Improvement of technologies in aquaculture and
waste treatment in aquaculture
1.21*
A7. Substitution of urea with SA fertiliser (Sulfate amon(NH4)2SO4)
A11. Improvement of livestock diets
A15. Improved technologies in food processing and
waste treatment in agriculture, forestry and aquaculture
95.0
3.39
0.5
3.36**
94.0
Mitigation
potential
1,000 digesters
(MtCO2e)
500
3.2
3,500
0.4
cultivation
200
0.9
200
1.1
A5. Integrated Crop Management (ICM) in rice
cultivation
1,000
0.5
A6. Integrated Crop management (ICM) in upland
annual crop cultivation
1,000
0.3
6.4
Total mitigation
- Mitigation options by international support:
* According to Decision No. 3119/BNN-KHCN; ** According to Decision No. 3119/BNN-KHCN
Table 3.17. Conditional mitigation options in the agricultural sector
120
Scale
Mitigation option
100
1,000 cattle
1,000ha
1,000
digesters
(MtCO2e)
80
A1
A11
Price (USD/ton CO2e)
60
A15
A7. Substitution of urea with SA fertiliser
2,000
3.2
A8. Reuse of upland agricultural residue
2,800
0.3
improved rice
1,500
7.0
3,500
18.8
A5
40
A6
A7
20
A2
A8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
A4
A10
A3
-20
A12
A14
-40
A9
A13
-60
Mitigation potential (mil. ton of CO2e)
Figure 3.3. Cost cost curve for mitigation options in the agricultural sector
45
50
A11. Improvement of diets for cattle
22,000
1.8
A12. Improvement of quality and services of
variety, food and input material for aquaculture
1,000
0.4
A13. Improvement of technologies for
aquaculture and waste treatment in
aquaculture
1,000
1.2
20,000*
3.4
-- Mitigation options by domestic funding:
35
36
A15. Improved technologies in processing and
waste treatment for crop, forestry, livestock
and aquaculture processing
A6. Integrated Crop management (ICM) in
upland annual crops cultivation
640
3.4
1,000
0.3
39.8
* Tonnes of products
c) LULUCF
The Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) model was used to develop and assess a number
of mitigation options for the LULUCF sector. The COMAP model helped analyse policies and measures for forestry
development and provide basic information on changes in carbon sinks, mitigation potential, costs and cost
efficiency of mitigation options.
Input data for COMAP included:
Table 3.18. Assumptions for increased GHG removal in LULUCF
Option
Assumption
F1. Protection of natural forest (1 million ha)
1 million ha of natural forest in Viet Nam will be protected in
an effective manner.
F2. Protection of coastal forest (100,000 ha)
100,000 ha of coastal forest in Viet Nam will be protected in
an effective manner.
F3. Plantation of coastal forest (10,000 ha)
10,000 ha of mangrove forest will be newly planted.
F4. Natural forest regeneration (200,000 ha)
200,000 ha of natural forest will be regenerated.
F5. Plantation of large timber production
forest (150,000 ha)
Plantation of 150,000 ha of large timber forest for economic
purposes
F6. Protection of natural forest (2.2 million ha)
2.2 million ha of natural forest will be protected with
30,000 ha of mangrove forest will be planted with international
support
200,000 ha of natural forest will be regenerated with
F9. Natural forest and production forest
regeneration (400,000 ha)
400,000ha of production forest and natural forest will be
regenerated with international support
»» Data on land use and land use change;
»» Carbon data (annual incremental biomass, annual underground carbon, decomposition speed of biomass);
»» Forest data (harvesting cycle, life cycle of timber products);
»» Cost data (cost of afforestation and forest protection);
»» Revenue data (benefits of timber production, firewood, non-timber products, ecosystem services).
9 mitigation options were reviewed and assessed. The following documents act as a legal basis (strategies, plans,
projects, etc…) for recommendations on mitigation:
»» Decision No. 57/QD-TTg, dated 9 January 2012, on the approval of the forest protection and development plan
for 2011-2020, which stipulates the protection and sustainable development of existing forest areas (as of 31
December 2013, natural protection forest coverage totalled 4,012,435 ha) and natural forest regeneration on
750,000 ha (mainly in protection forests and special-use forests);
»» Decision No. 120/QD-TTg, dated 21 January 2015, on the approval of a project to protect and develop coastal
forests in response to climate change in the 2015-2020 period, which stipulates the protection of 310,694
ha of existing forests (including a mangrove area of 168,688ha as of 31 December 2013) and newly planting
29,500 ha of mangrove forests;
• Results:
Based on input data with a discount rate of 10%, the COMAP calibration identified the 9 LULUCF options shown in
Table 3.19.
Table 3.19. Mitigation potential and costs of mitigation options in the LULUCF sector
Mitigation potential for
2021-2030 (MtCO2e)
Mitigation
potential
for 2030
(MtCO2e)
Mitigation
cost* (USD/
tCO2)
-140.38
-14.83
0.66
-47.93
-3.04
0.95
Option
»» Decision No. 774/QD-BNN-TCLN on the approval of an action plan to improve the productivity, quality and
value of planted production forest in the 2014-2020 period, aiming to newly plant and transform 375,000 ha
of production forest to large timber production forest by 2020;
-2.29
-0.16
5.72
-31.34
-2.24
1.18
»» Scheme to restructure the forestry sector, which promotes the plantation of one million ha of production
forest by 2020;
F5. Plantation of large timber production forest
(150,000 ha)
-21.59
-2.40
2.67
F6. Protection of natural forest (2,2 million ha)
-366.63
-36.13
0.7
-4.41
-0.49
5.88
In 2021-2030, forest protection and development is a national priority, focusing on sustainable forest management
and development and increasing forest coverage to the level of 45% (equal to 15 million ha forest).
• Mitigation options in LULUCF are proposed in Table 3.18.
37
38
-20.15
-2.24
1.2
F9. Natural forest and production forest
regeneration (400,000ha)
-35.81
-4.48
1.2
*At 2010 prices, with a discount rate of 10%,
6.000
F1
F2
F7
5.000
F4
Mitigation cost (USD/tCO2e)
Mitigation option
1
F6. Protection of natural forest (2,2 million ha)
2
-0.49
3
-2.24
4
F9. Natural forest and production forest regeneration (400,000 ha)
-4.48
-36.13
-43.34
F6
F3
d) Waste
3.000
The GHG emission mitigation potential of each option was assessed using a bottom-up approach certified by the
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Executive Board (EB). Data was collected from facilities that are well suited
for the implementation of mitigation measures. Emission factors and parameters were taken from the 2006 IPCC
Guidelines on National GHG Inventories. Conditional and unconditional mitigation targets were identified based on
Decision No. 2149/QD-TTg on the national strategy for the integrated management of solid waste by 2025 and a
vision towards 2050, 4 mitigation options were recommended for the waste sector in Viet Nam, including:
2.000
1.000
.000
.000
Mitigation potential by 2030
(MtCO2e)
No
F5
4.000
Table 3.21. Mitigation options in the LULUCF sector implemented by international resources
• W1. Organic fertiliser production (apply AM0025 methodology: mitigation during organic processing (version 12));
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
Mitigation potential (tCO2e)
• W2. Recovery of landfill gas for power and heat generation (apply ACM0001 methodology: use and burn landfill
gas (version 13));
Figure 3.4. cost curve of mitigation options in the LULUCF sector
• W3. Recycling of solid waste (apply AMS-III,AJ methodology: recover and recycle solid waste (version 04,0));
-Mitigation options by domestic funding:
• W4. Anaerobic treatment of organic solid waste with methane recovery for power and heat generation (apply
AMS-III,AO methedology: controlled anaerobic treatment of organic solid waste with methane recovery).
Table 3.20. Mitigation options in the LULUCF sector implemented by domestic resources
Mitigation potential by 2030
(MtCO2e)
A cost-benefit analysis was conducted of the mitigation options based on investment, operation and maintenance
costs as well as economic benefits.
No
Option
1
-14.83
2
-3.04
No.
Assumption
Value
Source
3
-0.16
1
Rate of urban solid waste generation
10% per year
National Environment Report 2011 –
Solid waste (MONRE, 2012)
4
-2.24
2
Targets for urban solid waste collection
2020: 90%;
Decision No. 2149/QD-TTg (2009)
5
F5. Plantation of large timber production forest (150,000 ha)
-2.40
3
Targets for treatment of urban solid
2020: 85%;
waste
Decision No. 2149/QD-TTg (2009)
4
Composition of urban solid waste
Constant
5 year Environmental Status Report
(2006-2010) by cities/provinces
5
Emission factors
Default
Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines
National GHG Inventories
Total increase in GHG removal
-Mitigation options implemented by international resouces
39
Table 3.22. Assumptions used to assess the mitigation potential of waste options
-22.67
for
40
350
Table 3.23. Assumptions for each waste treatment option
300
Option
Assumption
250
1
W1. Organic fertiliser production
50% of collected food waste and 100% of other degradable organic
waste in 30 provinces/cities will be used for composting in 2030,
totalling 25,63 million tonnes. The amount of solid waste treated via
composting from 2021-2030 will be approximately 172,9 million tons.
200
2
W2. Landfill gas recovery for 5% of total waste generation in 30 provinces/cities will be disposed
electricity and heat generation
of in landfills that apply LFG recovery technology for electricity
generation in 2020, This will rise to 10% in 2030.
USD/tCO2e
No
The total amount of organic waste treated via anaerobic digestion will
be approximately 10,7 million tonnes in 2030 and 70,9 million tonnes
in 2021-2030.
3
4
W3. Recycling of solid waste
100% of recyclable waste will be recycled in 2030 in 30 provinces/
cities, totalling 1,18 million tonnes in 2030 and 7,9 million tonnes in
2021-2030.
W4,
Anaerobic
treatment 50% of collected food waste in 15 provinces/cities will be treated via
of organic solid waste with anaerobic digestion in 2030.
methane recovery for power and
100% of collected food waste in 33 provinces/cities will be treated via
heat generation
anaerobic digestion in 2030.
The total amount of waste treated via anaerobic digestion in 2030 is
approximately 10,9 million tonnes and nearly 72,9 million tonnes in
2021-2030.
- Results
The GHG mitigation potential and the cost of each mitigation option in the waste sector is presented in Figure 3.5.
Recycling (W3)
Anaerobic digestion (W4)
150
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-50
-100
MtCO2e
Figure 3.5. Marginal cost curve of GHG emission mitigation options in the waste sector
- Mitigation options implemented by domestic resources
Table 3.24. Mitigation options in the waste sector implemented by domestic resources
for 2021-2030
(tCO2e/year)
by 2030 (tCO2e)
Average mitigation
cost (USD/tCO2e)
20,993,309
3,580,372
-8.3
W2. Landfill gas recovery for electricity
and heat generation
2,091,155
328,448
-1.3
1,263,664
253,069
-79.6
24,348,128
4,161,889
Mitigation option
Total
- Mitigation options implemented by international supports
Table 3.25. Mitigation options in the waste sector implemented by international supports
No Mitigation option
Cumulative
mitigation potential
for 2021-2030
(tCO2e/year)
by 2030 (tCO2e)
Average mitigation
cost (USD/tCO2e)
1
59,479,233
10,294,840
-8.3
2
W2. Landfill gas recovery for electricity
and heat generation
13,001,986
1,936,728
-1.3
3
4,680,079
926,953
-79.6
4
W4. Anaerobic treatment of organic
solid waste with methane recovery for
power and heat generation
17,566,619
2,912,255
326.8
94,727,917
16,070,776
Total
41
LFG recovery for electricity generation (W2)
50
20% of organic waste treated via composting (based on the efficiency
of composting process) in the above-mentioned 30 provinces/cities
will be disposed of in landfills that apply LFG recovery technology for
electricity generation in 2030.
25% of organic waste treated via anaerobic digestion (based on
efficiency of anearobic digestion process) in 15 provinces/cities will
be disposed of in landfills that apply LFG recovery technology for
electricity generation in 2030.
Composting (W1)
42
e) Summary of GHG emission reduction targets by sectors
3.3.4. Impacts on socio-economic development and the environment
Viet Nam’s GHG conditional and unconditional emission reduction targets for 2030 and GHG emissions/removal
options are summarised in Table 3.26.
1) Economic benefits
Table 3.26. GHG emission reduction targets by 2030 compared to BAU
Sector
Unconditional
• Contribution to economic development through the development of new industries, creating a favourable
investment environment, developing installation and maintenance facilities, reducing costs, improving
competitiveness and creating new business opportunities;
Conditional
Target (%)
GHGs (MtCO2e)
Target (%)
GHGs (MtCO2e)
Energy
4.4
29.46
9.8
65.93
Agriculture
5.8
6.36
41.8
45.78
Waste
8.6
4.16
42.1
20.23
50.05*
22.67
145.7*
66.0
8%
62.65
25%
197.94
LULUCF
Total
* Note: increased removals
To meet the 8% GHG emission reduction target requires USD3.2 billion in domestic resources and an additional
USD 17.9 billion meet the 25% GHG emission reduction target with conditional mitigation options by 2030 (Table
3.27).
Table 3.27. Aggregated financial needs for GHG emission reduction targets in 2021-2030
Sector
Reduction target by
2030 (%)
Funding needs (USD
million)
Domestic resources
4.4
1,894.3
International support
9.8
5,331.9
Domestic resources
5.8
885.43
41.8
12,093.54
Domestic resources
8.6
311.7
42.1
2,596.2
Domestic resources
50.05*
131.98
145.7*
1,127.98
Agriculture
Waste
LULUCF*
• Reduction of energy imports as well as the reliance on external resources, and contribution to stable and
sustainable economic development.
b) Agriculture
• Farmers will be able to implement new cultivation processes through the application of more advanced
technologies and cultivation methods leading to more sustainable production;
• Direct impacts on agricultural production;
• Improved value and competitiveness of exported goods.
c) LULUCF
• Forests help protect manufacturing facilities, therefore indirectly stabilising biodiversity and production;
• Afforestation and forest protection increase the value of forest environmental services. Payments to individuals
and communities for forest environmental services help to provide incomes for forest residents;
Mode of implementation
Energy
a) Energy
Total funding needs: domestic resources (USD million)
3,223.41
Total funding needs: international support (USD million)
17,926.21
Total (USD million)
21,149.62
• Mangrove forests provide natural spawning, food sources and seeds for aquaculture;
• Aquaculture in mangrove forests would potentially be granted ecological certificating, thus warranting higher
prices compared to using other methods. As a result, they contribute to increased local incomes for individuals
and encourage communities to plant and protect mangrove forests.
d) Waste
• Organic fertilisers, the main output of the mitigation options, would be of high quality and would help improve soil
quality and crop yields. This leads to higher incomes for the farmers and enterprises involved and contributes
to local economic development;
• Establish waste as a source of renewable energy through the recovery of landfill gas for power generation and
a partial substitute for the use of fossil fuels.
2) Social benefits
a) Energy
• Improved working conditions and living standards due to a more stable energy supply;
*Increased GHG removals
Funding will be mobilised from all sectors of the economy and international support, including bilateral and
multilateral sources, in order to achieve the GHG emission reduction targets.
• Improved community health.
b) Agriculture
• Improved yield and therefore more secure livelihoods for farmers;
• Improved local community health.
c) LULUCF
43
44
• Creation of jobs and income for people;
3.4.2. Climate change adaptation measures prior to 2020
• Contribution to poverty reduction for communities living near forests;
1) On-going adaptation programmes and plans at the national level
• Contribution to increased public awareness of the role and value of forests.
Climate change adaptation measures are mainly implemented with funding from support projects as well
as Government funds. The climate change adaptation framework for 2020 includes the following strategies,
programmes and action plans:
d) Waste
• Creation of jobs and income for people;
• Environmental protection.
3) Environmental benefits:
• Reduction of GHG emissions / increase of GHG removal;
• Improvement of the environment and reduction of on-site environmental pollution;
• Contribution to soil protection, erosion prevention, and biodiversity preservation.
3.4. Climate change adaptation component
3.4.1. Rationale for an adaptation component in Viet Nam’s INDC
Whether or not adaptation should be included in countries’ INDC was discussed extensively during the negotiations
on climate change in 2014. It was concluded that adaptation could be included in INDC reports as an option. This
conclusion was reflected in the “Lima Call for Climate Action”, which was adopted by the Parties during COP20
(Lima, Peru, 2014). The Lima Call “invites all Parties to consider communicating their undertakings in adaptation
planning or consider including an adaptation component in their intended nationally determined contributions.”
However, COP20 did not provide specific content- and format-related criteria for possible adaptation components
in INDC. In addition, there are still debates on how to compare and assess countries’ intended contribution to
climate change adaptation once the INDC reports are submitted to UNFCCC. An improved understanding of this
matter will only be gained after the negotiation sessions at COP21 (Paris, France, 2015) or in 2016 and 2017. To
date, each country can individually decide upon the content and format for the adaptation component of their
INDC.
INDC is a formal and important channel to communicate efforts and experiences in climate change adaptation
and debating risks and losses within the international community. Viet Nam’s national strategy on climate change,
priority is given to food and water security, poverty reduction, gender equality, social welfare, community health,
improved living standards, and the protection of natural resources. These objectives can only be achieved by
enhancing human adaptation capacities and strengthening natural and socio-economic systems. Through its
INDC, the international community will have a better understanding of Viet Nam’s strategy so far and its needs for
international support.
Climate change adaption helps reduce vulnerability and inequality in individual countries and across national
borders. The benefits of climate change adaptation go beyond local, community and even national limits. Viet
Nam contributes to climate change adaptation as part of the international community’s efforts to address climate
change. Adaptation will help Viet Nam to improve its resilience to climate change and therefore increase its
contributions to GHG emission reductions.
The adaptation component in Viet Nam’s INDC includes plans developed in line with the current context and
projections for 2030. It can be modified if needed. The implementation of these plans is dependent on national
resources and on international support.
45
• Resolution No. 24-NQ/TW, issued in 2013 by the Central Party Executive Committee on the proactive response
to climate change and the enhancement of natural resources management and environmental protection
(Communist Party of Viet Nam, 2013);
• Law on natural disaster prevention (National Assembly of Viet Nam, 2013);
• National strategy on climate change (Government of Viet Nam, 2011a);
• National target programme for responding to climate change (Government of Viet Nam, 2008a and 2012c).
2) On-going adaptation programmes and projects at the sectoral level
Parallel to national programmes, various action plans on climate change response are also being developed and
implemented at the ministerial and local levels, with a focus on vulnerable sectors and areas. The main climate
change adaptation programmes and projects are as follows:
a) Water resources
Many climate change adaptation measures have been implemented as part of the national and ministerial
programmes, including:
• Mekong River Delta water supply planning and safe water supply projects;
• Red River Delta programme on water resource management and climate change adaptation, jointly implemented
by relevant ministries and provinces;
• Response to climate change programme for large cities in Viet Nam, with priority given to projects to prevent
inundation in Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and Can Tho.
In addition to the framework programmes and large-scale projects, detailed assessments of climate change
impacts on water resources and adaptation measure are conducted.
b) Agriculture
Climate change adaptation measures in agriculture are mainly aimed at developing a commodity agriculture
sector that is clean, diversified, and sustainable with easy access to new scientific and high-tech applications and
the ability to compete in local and international markets; developing new rural areas with modernised technical
infrastructure and a reasonable economic structure based on agriculture, industries and services; ensuring enough
jobs, reducing poverty, and improving the quality of life among rural communities; and ensuring food security and
eco-agricultural development.
MARD has developed an action plan in response to climate change that includes 54 tasks, requiring a total of VND
402 billion in funding, So far, only 21 tasks have been implemented with a total funding of VND 47,180 billion. The
focus was on the development and improvement of legal normative documents to ensure consistency between
laws and bylaws to protect clean, diverse and sustainable agriculture; the revision and improvement of policies and
mechanisms to support the application of new technologies and modern technical solutions to restructure the mix
of crop and husbandry, as well as new farming techniques in line with climate change mitigation; the development
and implementation of scientific and technological instruments for climate change adaptation in the agricultural
sector; planning for the effective use of agricultural land and aquatic water surfaces while taking into account the
46
immediate and potential impacts of climate change to ensure the stable and sustainable agricultural production
of commodities; and planning for the effective use of water sources in irrigation systems while considering climate
change impacts.
2014 to 19,5% by 2020, The total funding requirement for this project for 2014- 2020 is VND 5,415 billion (or USD
258 million), 70% of which is mobilised from the Government budget, 26% from ODA, and 4% from other sources
(Government of Viet Nam, 2015).
MARD has also developed and submitted a sea dyke programme spanning Quang Ngai to Kien Giang provinces,
taking into considerations climate change and sea level rise, to the Prime Minister for his approval. The programme
would include protection afforestation in front of dykes that are 500-1,000 meters wide. In addition, it includes
transport systems inside the dykes, a system of culverts to prevent tides and saltwater spilling over, and an
area of unoccupied land to elevate the dykes when sea level rises. Other programmes that have been developed
and implemented include a programme to upgrade river dykes given the new context, develop a water resource
management system masterplan for the Mekong River Delta. Red River Delta and the central region in the context
of climate change and sea level rise, and a project to prevent salinity intrusion and sea level rise for northern Ben
Tre Province.
Project to recover and manage protection forests sustainably: The project is aimed at managing and protecting
protection forests sustainably, recovering and preserving biodiversity, and supporting poverty reduction in
mountainous areas. The project will be implemented from 2012-2021 in 11 provinces (i,e, Thanh Hoa, Nghe An,
Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thua-Thien Hue, Quang Ngai, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Ninh Thuan, and Binh Thuan
Provinces). Funding for the project is provided by Japan’s ODA loans.
One of the adaptation measures employed by the agricultural sector is the creation and use of hybrid varieties of
crops that have the potential to adapt to changing climatic conditions. Apart from rice varieties for the intensification
of rice farming, new sets of rice varieties have been developed that are adaptive to inundation conditions. Although
still limited in quantity, acid and salt tolerant varieties will serve as the basis for further research to create new
varieties that can adapt to a changing climate.
Moving forward, the agricultural sector will continue to implement the tasks set out in MARD’s action plan and
other national strategies and programmes on climate change. The main tasks include assessing the impacts of
climate change and sea level rise on sub-sectors of agriculture and rural development; developing programmes
and projects for agricultural sub-sectors in line with local contexts, including responses to climate change and the
creation of development opportunities; mainstreaming climate change and sea level rise into action plans, policies,
strategies for sectoral and provincial development; and others.
c) Forestry
Forests are heavily impacted by climate change. They also play an important role in climate change mitigation. Viet
Nam has developed a number of policies for sustainable forest development and responses to climate change.
Viet Nam has undertaken significant efforts to implement this programme on National Action Programme on
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation; sustainable management of forests and the
conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+).
Payment for forest ecosystem services (PFES) (Viet Nam’s Government, 2010a): Since 2011, this policy aims at
providing payments for forest ecosystem services across Viet Nam. According to Decree No. 99/2010/ND-CP
on PFES, beneficiaries of ecosystem services that can receive payments include hydropower plants, clean water
suppliers and eco-tourism operators. This policy generates revenues of approximately USD 50 million per year,
which is used for forest protection to ensure these ecosystem services stay available.
In addition, the Government of Viet Nam is implementing a national target programme for new rural development
in 2010-2020 (Government of Viet Nam, 2010b) and a programme to support accelerated and sustainable poverty
reduction for 61 poorer districts (Government of Viet Nam, 2008b). These programmes put an emphasis on
agro-forestry development, improved agricultural yields, value-added forestry production, and sustainable forest
resource management.
Forest protection and development plan for 2011-2020: This is a follow-up of the original programme to plant 5
million ha of new forests, which ended in 2010. The goal of the new plan is to sustainably manage 13,4 million ha
of forest, with subsequent increases of 14,3 million ha by 2015 and 15,1 million ha by 2020 (Government of Viet
Nam, 2012c).
Project to protect and develop coastal protection forests in response to climate change for 2015-2020: The
objective of this project is to protect the existing 310 ha of coastal forest area and plant 46,058 ha of new forests,
thereby increasing the total coastal forest area to 356,753 ha by 2020 and coastal forest coverage from 16,9% in
47
Viet Nam Forests and Deltas Programme: The programme is aimed at promoting Viet Nam’s transformation in the
context of sustainable development, GHG mitigation and climate change. The project consists of 3 components:
sustainable landscapes, adaptation and coordination, and policy support at the central level. The project will
focus on promoting the development of livelihoods that can adapt to changing climatic conditions, mitigation and
adaptation solutions, and mitigation and adaptation policies.
3) Overall assessment
The above-mentioned programmes demonstrate the Government of Viet Nam’s determination to respond to
climate change. Although they do not directly respond to climate change, some programmes are ultimately
aimed at increasing forest coverage, managing forests sustainably, improving yields in agricultural and forestry
production and reducing poverty. Sources of funding for these action programmes and plans have been identified:
30-35% will be provided through Government budgets (at the central and local level) while the remainder will need
to be provided via other funding avenues, such as ODA or the private sector.
The action programmes and plans to respond to climate change at the national and sectoral level are mainly set
out until 2020. Longer-term policies are included in the National Strategy on Climate Change, However, very few
programmes and plans currently have a long-term perspective. Therefore, only a limited number of adaptation
programmes and actions have been proposed for the time period between 2020 and 2030.
Moreover, there is no clear and committed funding source for the implementation of adaptation measures.
Currently, the post-2020 period is only mentioned in the Action Plan with reference to responding to climate
change in the agricultural and rural development sector for 2011-2015 and sets out a vision for 2050, but even this
document does not include specific tasks for this period. However, based on the programmes and plans that will
be put in place by 2020, it is possible for experts and policy makers to come up with projections for 2020-2030.
Going forward, programmess and projects will focus mainly on: ensuring food and water security, proactively
responding to natural disasters, preventing inundation in big cities, strengthening river and sea dykes and reservoirs,
and promoting international and regional cooperation on climate change and water resources, especially within
regional institutions such as the Mekong River Commission and ASEAN.
3.4.3. Climate change adaptation in 2021-2030
1) Adaptation objectives
a) General objective
The objective is to determine Viet Nam’s specific contribution to global and regional climate change adaptation
based on national priority activities up to 2030 to strengthen the resilience of economic sectors and vulnerable
communities and ensure sustainable socio-economic development.
b) Specific objectives
• To analyse the potential impacts of climate change and the needs of vulnerable sectors and areas in Viet Nam
in adapting to climate change, especially for 2021-2030;
• To identify prioritised action for climate change adaptation for sectors and areas, thereby identifying Viet Nam’s
48
ability to contribute, as well as international support needs to close the gaps post-2020 and especially during
2021-2030.
• Protect, restore, plant and improve the quality of coastal forests, including mangroves, especially in coastal
estuaries and the Mekong and Red River deltas.
2) Climate change adaptation options
c) Responding to sea level rise and urban inundation
Viet Nam aims to minimise the loss of life and property due to climate change, The climate change adaptation
priority actions for 2021-2030 include:
• Implement integrated coastal zone management;
a) Responding proactively to disasters and improving climate monitoring
• Modernise the hydro-meteorological observatory and forecasting system to ensure the timely forecasting and
early warning of weather events. Develop the assessment and monitoring system on climate change and sea
level rise;
• Produce Socio-Economic Development Plans based on climate change scenarios, with a focus on key sectors
and regions;
• Implement disaster prevention plans and measures, protect peoples’ lives, and ensure national defence and
security;
• Use sea level rise scenarios in urban and land use planning for infrastructure, industrial parks, coastal and island
resettlement areas;
• Implement anti-inundation measures for large coastal cities; construct climate change resilient urban
infrastructure; strengthen and build new large urban drainage infrastructure;
• Consolidate, upgrade and complete crucial sea and river dykes;
• Control saline water intrusion in the most severely affected areas.
3.4.4. Impacts of adaptation options on socio-economic development and the environment
• Develop infrastructure and make plans for residential areas; relocate and resettle households and communities
from areas affected frequently by storm surges, fl oods, riverbank and shoreline erosion, or areas at risk of fl ash
fl oods and landslides;
The impacts of adaptation measures on socio-economic development and sectoral development are measured by
their effectiveness and consistency with the development process, Measures to mitigate disaster risks and adapt
to climate change are also related to trade-offs with other social objectives due to conflicts with different values
and visions for the future (IPCC, 2012). In Viet Nam, trade-offs between different objectives, such as biodiversity
conservation and environmental protection versus economic growth in the context of climate change pose a
significant challenge that needs to be addressed by each individual and institution at different levels (IMHEN and
UNDP, 2015).
• Allocate and mobilise resources for community-based climate change adaptation and disaster management;
raise awareness and build capacities for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management.
Proper adaptation solutions will have positive impacts on maintaining the production and preventing natural
disaster risks as well as ensuring food security, water resources security, and community welfare.
• Consolidate and develop prioritised and urgent disaster prevention projects; strengthen the capacity of search
and rescue forces;
b) Ensuring social security
• Review, adjust and develop livelihoods and production processes that are appropriate under climate change
conditions and are linked to poverty reduction and social justice;
IV. Opportunities and challenges in the
implementation of Viet Nam’s INDC
• Develop mechanisms, policies, and strengthen the insurance system and share climate and disaster risks;
• Improve regulations and technical standards for infrastructure, public facilities and housing, that are appropriate
under climate change conditions;
• Implement ecosystem-based adaptation through the development of ecosystem services and biodiversity
conservation, with a focus on the preservation of genetic resources, species at risk of extinction, and important
ecosystems;
• Implement community-based adaptation, including using indigenous knowledge, prioritizing the most vulnerable
communities;
• Implement integrated water resources management in river basin systems; ensure reservoir safety; strengthen
international cooperation in addressing transboundary water issues; ensure water security;
• Ensure food security through protecting, sustainably maintaining and managing agricultural land; restructuring
of crops and livestock; create new climate change resilient varieties; complete the disease control and prevention
system;
• Implement sustainable forest management; improve the quality of poor natural forests;
• Implement afforestation and reforestation measures, focusing on large timber plantations; prevent forest
deforestation and degradation;
49
4.1. Mitigation options
• A law on the energy-saving and energy efficiency (Viet Nam’s National Assembly, 2014) and a decree on law
enforcement have already been issued;
• Most of the energy-saving and energy efficiency options and small hydro power plants have economic benefits
that attract investors;
• The mitigation options in the INDC are in line with the State’s directives and sectoral plans and have the potential
to attract local and international investment; some plans are already supported or implemented;
• Agencies are already in charge of implementing forest protection and development plans at the central and local
levels;
• Most communities are aware of the rationale for mitigation and are willing to recommend implementation
partners accordingly;
• Investment in forest protection and development financed by the State budget is increasing; forestation is
attracting investment from the private sector;
50
• A policy framework on solid waste management and treatment, industrial development and solid waste
treatment technology, as well as penalties and taxes on environmental protection for solid waste are available;
• The State encourages local and international organisations and individuals to invest in and develop solid waste
treatment units and support services by establishing favorable conditions and support for investment;
• Some urban areas and enterprises have invested in solid waste treatment and allocated a budget for solid
waste management. In this context, projects on waste separation at source, as well as the waste collection and
treatment are being implemented;
• Funding is diversified, Viet Nam’s Environment Protection Fund is an important investment source to support
waste treatment projects.
4.1.2. Challenges
• Initial mitigation investment needs are high;
• The market for energy-saving and energy efficiency technology in Viet Nam is limited;
• Regulations on technological standards and equipment labeling have come into force, but enforcement is slow
and there is a lack of practical regulations on labeling and standards for equipment and machinery;
• There is a lack of an MRV system at the national and sectoral level;
• The financial support mechanism currently in place is not strong enough to encourage enterprises to invest in
GHG emission reductions;
• The awareness of organisations, enterprises, households and people on energy efficiency, renewable energy,
and the application of crop cultivation methods that reduce GHG emissions is limited;
• Agricultural production is decentralised and subject to several management levels causing difficulties for MRV
implementation;
• Enforcement of forest protection and development regulations is faced with a number of difficulties; there
is no monitoring mechanism for implementing GHG emission reduction solutions in forestry and there is no
consensus among ministries, sectors and localities in land use planning;
• Income from forest protection and development is low; there is no policy framework to attract SMEs involvement
in forest protection and development;
• The scale of some options on large timber production forestation is limited;
• There are few opportunities to access loans to realise forestation projects; when borrowing from commercial
banks for forestation interest rates are higher than profit; loan requirements and procedures are too limiting for
enterprises and households to access funding;
• Solid waste treatment and the corresponding management policy framework are incomplete, overlap and are
not enforced thoroughly; some documents and regulations on solid waste management are issued by several
agencies;
• The organisation of solid waste management is not consistent between the central and local level; current solid
waste management models are specific to each urban area and there is a lack of cooperation in solving interregional and inter-provincial issues;
• Solid waste treatment investment is limited and not equally distributed; budget allocation for waste collection
and transportation is not appropriate; the budget for waste treatment is small;
51
• Solid waste treatment companies face barriers in accessing funding.
4.2. Climate change adaptation options
• An proactive climate change response is at the heart of the vision for socio-economic development in Viet Nam.
This direction is given by the Party and the Government which is concretised in on-going policy frameworks,
strategies, programmes and projects;
• Viet Nam’s economy has seen rapid growth, and the country is now classified as a medium income country,
ultimately ensuring additional resources for welfare, disaster prevention and the response to climate change;
• Significant achievements have been made in the areas of education, health care and social welfare, contributing
to increased awareness and heightened adaptation capacities of the general public to disasters and climate
change;
• A climate change and sea level rise scenario until 2100 was developed, which is an important basis for
communities to develop plans to respond to natural disaster, climate change, sea level rises and urban inundation;
• Regulations and directives on natural disaster prevention and climate change response are in place, including
the Law on natural disaster prevention (Viet Nam’s National Assembly, 2013), the Law on Environment Protection
(Viet Nam’s National Assembly, 2014), the Resolution of the Central Committee of Viet Nam’s Communist Party
on a proactive response to climate change (Viet Nam’s Communist Party, 2013) and on strengthening natural
resource management and environmental protection. They represent the legal framework for the mobilisation
of the entire political system for disaster prevention and climate change response;
• The hydrometeorology monitoring system is modernised and in place nationwide. This system will be further
upgraded and modernised to strengthen climate changemonitoring and disaster forecasting and warnings;
• Disaster prevention systems are available at all levels to quickly respond to all circumstances; regular practice
on disaster prevention is implemented for capacity building and clarify lessons learned that can be applied in
Viet Nam’s climate change response.
4.2.2. Challenges
• Viet Nam is a relatively poor country, even though it is now classified as a medium income country. However, the
country faces fluctuating poverty rates and frequent natural disasters;
• The unemployment rate remains high, especially in rural areas;
• Education, training and health care are comparatively less developed than in other countries in the region;
• An insurance market has recently started to emerge in recent years, but fails to cover high risk disasters and
climate change;
• The organisational structure of agencies in charge of disaster prevention and climate change response is
not consistent from central to local level. Staff in charge of these tasks hold more than one position at the
same time. Mechanisms to increase cooperation as well as ensuring the efficiency and effectiveness of these
agiences need to be put in place;
• Forecasting and warning systems are not reliable in regard to reporting events in a timely manner, especially for
extreme events;
• The demand for disaster prevention and response to climate change, sea level rise and urban inundation are high,
52
however national resources for these measures are low and need to be balanced amongst different objectives;
16. Government of Viet Nam, 2011a: National strategy on Climate change.
• Natural disaster prevention only focuses on response rather than prevention; rescue activities overlap. There is
a lack of special equipment and workforce for rescue operations;
17. Government of Viet Nam, 2011b: National electricity development planning for the period of 2011-2020,
consideration to 2030.
• Response solutions mostly focus on hard solutions such as dyke and floor strengthening, Soft solutions, such
as planning, mangrove forestation, plantation against tidal waves, have been put in place but lack consistency
and follow up. Urban development planning exists, yet management is still faced with many difficulties;
18. Government of Viet Nam, 2012a: National target programme on climate change response in the period of
2012-2015.
• Public awareness on disaster management and climate change response has improved but is still limited.
19. Government of Viet Nam, 2012b: National target programme on economic and efficient use of energy in the
period of 2012-2015.
20. Government of Viet Nam, 2012c: Forest protection and development plan in the period of 2011-2020.
REFERENCES
21. Government of Viet Nam, 2015: Coastal forest protection and development in respond to CC in the period of
2015-2020.
In Vietnamese
1. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), 2011a: Action plan for climate change response of
agriculture and rural development sector in the period of 2011-2015 and vision to 2050.
2. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), 2011b: GHG emission reduction plan in agriculture
and rural development sector to 2020.
3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), 2013: Plan on forestry restructuring.
4. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), 2014: Action plan on strengthening productivity,
quality and value of planted protection forest in the period of 2014-2020.
5. Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (MONRE), 2010: Viet Nam’s Second National communications
to the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change.
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change response, Project “Initial assessment on global technology needs”.
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8. Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment(MONRE), 2012c: Climate change and sea level rise scenarios
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9. Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (MONRE), 2014a: Viet Nam’s Initial Biennial Update Report to
the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change.
10. Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (MONRE), 2014b: Report on National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories 2010, The Project for Capacity Building for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory in Viet Nam.
11. Government of Viet Nam, 2008a: National target programme to respond to climate change.
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climate change adaptation, Viet Nam Natural Resource-Environment and Maps Publishing House, Hanoi.
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programme KC08.
27. Nguyen Van Thang, Mai Van Khiem, Hoang Duc Cuong, and La Thi Tuyet, 2013: Research on developments of
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54
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to climate change on mangrove forest ecosystem and communities in coastal areas of the Red
River Delta”, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Hanoi.
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Implemented by:

viet nam`s intended nationally determined contribution

Transcription

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