Dr. Efstratios Georgoudis, C.Eng., MRINA

Dr. Efstratios Georgoudis, C.Eng., MRINA
Department of Merchant Shipping, Cyprus
Marine Environment Protection Division
Marine Surveyor – Naval Architect
?
Risk Identification
Risk Analysis
Risk Description
Risk Estimation
Risk Assessment
Risk Evaluation
Risk Assessment
Risk Treatment
Risk Monitoring
Risk Management
Activities that need to be taken
1. AIS Collection
2. AIS Analysis
3. Oil Transport Data
4. Parameter Identification
5. Sensitivity Weighting Matrix
6. Oil Response Inventory
7. Bi and Multilateral Agreements
8. Accidents at Sea Analysis
9. Accidental spill of oil Analysis
10.Environmental Damage Assessment
AIS Collection
• Limitation of AIS coverage (meteorological conditions, height of
AIS base antenna)
• AIS base stations available?
• No data on oil transport
• The transponder is not operational or the transponder is not
properly working
• Vessels equipped with a Class-B AIS transponder
AIS Analysis
• AIS data sorting and cleaning
• Traffic density
• Traffic sorting by ship size, ship type
Oil Transport Data
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Collection of oil transport data
Analysis of oil flow data
Compliance with AIS data regarding time and area
Inclusion of transit
Parameter Identification
Sensitivity - Vulnerability
SOS
Anything that is vulnerable to an oil spill must be classified as a ‘parameter’
Parameter Identification
Environmental Parameters
• Shore lines (rocky, sandy, etc.)
• Protected Areas
• Flora
• Fauna
Socio-economic Parameters
• Tourism
• Ports/Terminals
• Power Plants
• Desalination plants
• Fish grounds
• Farm winds
Parameter Identification
Environmental Parameters
• Most of them related to Coast,
shallow water, archipelago
Socio-economic Parameters
• Majority of them related to Coast/shallow
water and some to offshore area
Environmental Parameters
marine areas
parks
other protected areas
PROTECTED AREAS
Ecological
function
reserves
national programs
Rarity
world heritage convention
Biodiversity
natural monuments
Sea grass
wetlands
Turtles
Bird Area
Monk seal
Hunting Area
Shoreline
Vulnerability
E
N
V
I
R
O
N
M
E
N
T
A
L
S
E
N
S
I
T
I
V
I
T
Y
PROTECTED AREAS - RESOURCES
WDPA (World Database on Protected Areas), by WCPA (World
Commission on Protected Areas), IUCN (International Union for Conservation
of Nature) and UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme)
Ramsar Sites Information Service;
Service
MedPAN database,
database for the Mediterranean protected areas;
EIS (Environmental Information Service),
Service) interactive consultation service
by UNEP, WCPA and IPIECA (International Petroleum Industry Environmental
Conservation Association);
BirdLife International Birdlife
Official list of Italian protected marine areas by the Ministry of
Environment;
Natura 2000 database:
database European network Sites of Community Importance
and Special protection areas – EEA directive 2009 on habitats and birds.
PROTECTED AREAS - DATABASE
Risk Management on Oil Spills
Shore line - Coastal Morphology
The coastal morphology can be
interpreted through the Google
Earth web portal and / or
analysing
high
resolution
satellite optical images.
Green
Red
Brown
= LOW
= HIGH
= ARTIFICIAL
Risk Management on Oil Spills
Shore line - Coastal Morphology – Mediterranean & Black Sea
Risk Management on Oil Spills
Monk Distribution
Monk distribution on the Mediterranean Sea
WDPA from WCMC (World Conservation Monitoring Centre),
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Risk Management on Oil Spills
Cartographic data derived from the “World Atlas of Biodiversity”
(Green Turtle, Caretta, Monk, Seagrass)
Sensitivity Weighting Matrix
Environmental Maps (ecological, rarity, vulnerability, biodiversity)
Environmental Sensitivity Map Mediterranean - Integrated
Socio Economic Parameters - Tourism
ports
airports
roads
tourism
tourist index
tourist presences
Historical sites
World Travel & Tourism Organization - WT&TO can be analysed to
obtain the basic data on tourism related to the riparian countries both on the
Mediterranean and on the Black sea
Socio Economic Parameters - Tourism
Environmental Sensitivity Maps
Socio Economic Maps
S
E
N
S
I
T
I
V
I
T
Y
M
A
P
Sensitivity Weighting Matrix
• Who decides
• Common Geographical areas
Oil Response Inventory
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•
•
•
•
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Where
Type of equipment
Who does what / authority
Human Resources
Coordinating Centre
National Contingency Planning
Bi and Multilateral Agreements
• Bilateral
• Multi lateral
• European/EMSA
Bi and Multilateral Agreements
Agreement Into force
Agreement signed, 1 country adoption missing for entry into force
Accidents at Sea Analysis
"Analysis of Accidents at Sea" includes:
• Collision accidents
• Grounding accidents
• Fire and Explosion accidents
• Ship damage and Foundering due to various causes,
such as hard weather
• Collisions with fixed objects (i.e. offshore structures).
• STS operations
Accidents at Sea Analysis
Collision & Grounding Analysis
Collision and Grounding types of accident are linked
directly with the AIS data analysis and more specifically,
with the position of the vessels and how close they come
to each other. All the other types of accidents are less
important, since collision and groundings account for
95% of the modeling efforts of all the types of accidents.
Moreover, all the other types rely on statistical data only.
Accidents at Sea Analysis
Collision & Grounding Analysis
Collision and Grounding types of accident are linked
directly with the AIS data analysis and more specifically,
with the position of the vessels and how close they come
to each other. All the other types of accidents are less
important, since collision and groundings account for
95% of the modeling efforts of all the types of accidents.
Moreover, all the other types rely on statistical data only.
Accidents at Sea Analysis
Collision accidents
Types of Collisions:
• Crossing
• Head on
• Overtaking
Accidents at Sea Analysis
Grounding accidents
Types of Grounding
• Drift grounding
• Powered grounding
Accidents at Sea Analysis
Collision & Grounding Analysis
TWO OPTIONS FOR ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE-FREQUENCY (RISK ESTIMATION)
Statistical Only
Modeling the Physical process
Collision & Grounding Analysis
Modeling the Physical process
Modeling the physical processes consists of two parts:
a) Geometrical calculations using input data from AIS (lateral
distibution, course over ground, speed, ship length, beam)
b) Statistical parameters (causation probability = 1 - The probability
of making a succesful evasive manoeuvre given that you are on
direct collision corse).
Thus, collision and grounding analysis model does have a statistical
component, but it is only a small part of the model.
Accidents at Sea Analysis
Conclusion
The main part of the ’Analysis of accidents at sea’ is to figure out the
probability (frequency) of a specific accident to occur, that is calculating
the risk probability of a specific accident based on the AIS data and
statistical parameters. And this is done for both collision and grounding
Accidents.
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE = RISK ESTIMATION
Accidental spill of oil Analysis
The main part of the ’Accidental Spill of Oil Analysis is to take into
account the amount of risk calculated in the Accident At Sea Analysis
(probability of occurrence) and find the closest match against
‘collision model scenarios’ with the aim to ‘forecast/predict’ the amount
and type of oil spill at sea.
ACCIDENTAL SPILL OF OIL ANALYSIS = RISK EVALUATION
OVERALL MODEL – RISK ASSESSMENT
ACCIDENTS AT SEA ANALYSIS
= RISK ESTIMATION
ACCIDENTAL SPILL OF OIL ANALYSIS = RISK EVALUATION
DAMAGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT
The damage analysis is used to determine the consequence from
an accidental spill of oil in a uniform way throughout the project
area. The model for environmental damage will be developed
with input from the accidental oil spill analysis and the sensitivity
analysis.
DAMAGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT – HOW?
OVERALL MODEL – RISK MANAGEMENT
AIS Collection
AIS Analysis
Oil Transport Data
IDENTIFICATION OF HIGH RISK AREAS
Parameter Identification
Sensitivity Weighting Matrix
Accidents at Sea Analysis
Accidental spill of oil Analysis
Environmental Damage Assessment
Oil Response Inventory
Bi and Multilateral Agreements
IDENTIFICATION OF SENSITIVE AREAS
PROBABILITY OF OCCURENCE
OIL SPILL EVALUATION (SIZE, TYPE)
CONSEQUENCES
MITIGATION OF CONSEQUENCES
OVERALL MODEL – RISK MANAGEMENT
DELIVERABLES
MAP WITH HIGH RISK AREAS
MAP WITH SENSITIVE AREAS
CONSEQUENCES
(use of oil spill forecasting models)
MITIGATION OF CONSEQUENCES
(measures such as re-deployment of oil spill combat inventory, resources for combating oil spill)
THANK YOU.