ETI Marine Programme

Transcription

ETI Marine Programme
Simon Cheeseman – ETI Marine Programme Manager
Presentation to All Energy 21st May 2013
©2013 Energy Technologies Institute LLP
The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for
which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP.
©2013
Energy
Technologies
LLP
- Subject
to tonotes
page 1Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information,
This information
is given
in good faith basedInstitute
upon the latest
information
available
Energy on
Technologies
which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
Who is the ETI?
•
The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI)
is a public-private partnership between
global energy and engineering
companies and UK Government
•
Safeguarding affordable and secure
future energy mix
•
Delivering proof of concept for new
energy technologies
•
Our projects impact economic
development
©2013 Energy Technologies Institute LLP - Subject to notes on page 1
ETI Project Portfolio
9 Technology
Programme areas
Delivering...
New knowledge
Technology development
Technology demonstration
ETI Invests in projects at 3 levels
Technology Demonstration
projects
Technology Development
projects
Frequently focused around
SMEs
Knowledge Building Projects
• ETI additionality: ability to target
and specify project effectively and
provide integration of outputs,
connection to policy development
• ETI additionality: project
targeting and specification and
integration, skilled inputs for
business development, governance
and technical support for start-ups,
potential market access routes
2-4 years
Large projects delivered
primarily by large companies,
system integration focus.
• ETI additionality: project
targeting, specification and
integration, skills, technologies,
market access routes, policy
development influence, effective
risk management through scale
of financial and technical
leverage, engineering leadership
3-5 years
6-24 months
•
•
ETI additionality increases with progress towards ‘big projects’ - impact is significant at all
levels
Additionality is delivered at all levels through depth of engineering, technology and policy
engagement – at system integration level – coupled with involvement of ETI Member’s staff
Opportunity Cost
Where Marine Energy fits in the
ETI Programme portfolio
Tidal Stream
Wave Power
Tidal Range
Scenario Resilience
ETI / UKERC Marine Roadmap
 Published in October 2010

Under review for updating
 Provides the ETI / UKERC view on:
 The key technology & deployment issues
facing the UK marine energy sector
 How these issues should be prioritised (in
the context of potential ETI interventions)
 Technology cost and performance targets
to 2050 that will be required to deliver
significant UK deployment
 Used by ETI to help define future
project interventions
ETI / UKERC Roadmap targets
2010
UK Deployment
2020
2030
2040
2050
FULL-SCALE DEMO
SMALL ARRAYS (2-10 MW)
LARGE ARRAYS (10 – 100 MW)
RAPID BUILDOUT OF NEW PROJECTS
ASSET REPLACEMENT + REDUCING NUMBER OF NEW PROJECTS
1st GENERATION SYSTEMS
2nd and 3r d GENERATION SYSTEMS
1 – 2 GW
6 – 12 GW
9 – 18 GW
10 - 20 GW
~ 250 - 450 MW pa
(200 - 500 units pa)
~ 500 - 1200 MW pa
(400 - 1500 units pa)
~ 150 - 300 MW pa
(100 - 300 units pa)
~ 600 - 1200 MW pa
(500 - 1200 units pa)
4,000 – 7,000 £/kW
2,500 – 4,000 £/kW
2,000 – 2,500 £/kW
1,500 – 2,000 £/kW
1.5 – 4.0 p/kWh
1.0 – 2.5 p/kWh
0.5 – 1.5 p/kWh
0.3 – 1.0 p/kWh
25 – 35 %
35 - 40 %
37 - 42 %
40 - 45 %
Availability
75 - 85 %
90 %
90 - 95 %
95 - 98 %
Overall COE
17 – 40 p/kWh
9 – 18 p/kWh
7 – 10 p/kWh
5 – 8 p/kWh
0 GW
Technology & System Performance
CURRENT
ESTIMATES
CAPEX
O&M Costs
Array Load Factor
Marine Roadmap priority areas for
development & demonstration
PRIORITY A ACTIVITIES
PRIORITY B ACTIVITIES
PRIORITY C ACTIVITIES
Installation methods
Component reliability data sharing
Knowledge transfer networks
1st Generation device and array sea trials
Offshore grid system design and demonstration
Harmonisation of model-scale testing facilities
Recovery methods
2nd Generation device and array sea trials
Control systems
Reliability modelling tools
Development testing, guidance and standards
Site assessment tools
Resource analysis tools
Supply chain development
Environmental guidelines and standards
Techno-economic analysis tools
Certification rules
Foundations and mooring systems
Failure mode and condition monitoring techniques
Strategic environmental assessment
Array design and modelling tools
Sub-sea electrical system equipment
Array electrical system
Energy conversion system (e.g. PTO)
Energy extraction technology (e.g. Blades,
interaction surface)
Site consenting / leasing
2nd
Generation device development
Design optimisation tools
Array interaction analysis
Low-cost O&M techniques
Performance data collection
New device and component development (step
change)
Offshore umbilical / wet HV connectors
Device structure
Manufacture, assembly and test standards
Resource assessment guidelines and standards
Onshore grid system development
Design guidelines and standards
Continued long-term market support
Skills and training (capacity building)
Environmental Impact Assessment tools
Health & Safety guidelines
Power electronics
Generators (conventional)
Development of open-sea testing facilities
Device modelling tools
Performance guidelines & technical specifications
..we want to address as many Priority A (and B)
activities as possible in our projects
Aims of the ETI Marine Energy
Programme
The programme aims to accelerate the development and deployment
of commercially viable marine energy technologies that will:
 Make a material contribution to the
future UK energy system
 Deliver significant greenhouse gas
emissions reductions in the UK
 Contribute to long-term energy
security in the UK
Tidal energy resource modelling
SMARTtide
What?
 Modelling (and understanding) tidal
resource interactions around the UK
How?
 Development of continental shelf
models of varying granularity
 Testing these against different build
scenarios out to 2050
Why?
 To better understand the impacts of
tidal system deployments on the UK
tidal resource (and vice versa)
Questions?
Come and speak to the ETI at
All Energy 22nd & 23rd May on Stand K28
Energy Technologies Institute
Holywell Building
Holywell Park
Loughborough
LE11 3UZ
For all general enquiries
telephone the ETI on
01509 202020.
For the latest ETI news and
announcements email
[email protected]
For more information
about the ETI visit
www.eti.co.uk
The ETI can also be
followed on Twitter at
twitter.com/the_ETI
21st May 2013
ETI TIDAL RESOURCE MODELLINGSMARTTIDE
BLACK & VEATCH TEAM
ANDY BALDOCK (BLACK & VEATCH): DIRECTOR – ENERGY SOLUTIONS
PROJECT BACKGROUND
• ETI commissioned a highly resolved, dynamic, UK
Continental Shelf model
• To provide improved understanding of interactions
• To provide a unique tool to the industry
• Project completed November 2012
• Unique tool called SMARTtide is now available to the
public for general use
• SMARTtide accessible May 2013
2
Tidal Technologies….
3
Stages in tidal resource modelling
Level
Area
Resolution
Reconnaissance
Regional /National
>500m
Pre Feasibility
Whole Estuary /
Channel
<500m
Full Feasibility
Localised area in
estuary / channel
<50m
Layout Design
Development site
<50m
• The above taken from IEC TC114 Tidal Resource Standard – 2nd CD ‘issued’.
• Possible to have a ‘Regional / National’ model with a higher resolution
(200m) than defined above which would make it at least a pre-feasibility
level tool.
• 3 Models – CCSM, DCSM, DTRM.
• Models designed to reduce uncertainty of local and regional interactions at
pre-feasibility stage and allow more detailed models to be included (e.g.
from ETI’s PerAWaT project).
4
UK Continental Shelf Model
Boundaries of UK Continental Shelf Model
5
CSM – Open Source & Transparent
TELEMAC
TELEMAC – code adjustments for
energy extraction
BATHYMETRY
Coastline
Coordinates
Technology (s)
Site (s)
TPXO satellite
data
Harmonics
CSM
MESH
Boundaries
Resolution
Results
2D hydrodynamic
model
6
CSM Calibration / Validation
• Data sets’ selection
– Independent sets for Calibration / Validation
– Coverage of the entire model area
– Located close to sites of interest
IEC resource assessment standard
HR Wallingford in house standards
Calibration
Validation
– 24 coastal tidal gauges + 11 offshore tidal gauges = 35 measures
7
16 March 2011
Marine Energy Atlas
ETI – DCSM
Detailed CSM gives more refined definition of high velocity sites
SCENARIO MODELLING
• Development considered every decade up to 2050
• Political will
• Medium
• Optimistic
• Medium
• Optimistic
2030
• Optimistic
• Medium
• Medium
• Optimistic
2020
2050
• Optimistic
• Medium
2040
• Individual cases
• Pessimistic - nothing
• Extreme case – as much as possible
• Special case – specific tests
9
1. Tidal current impact on tidal range?
TR 52TWh/y
TR 52TWh/y
TC 53TWh/y
2. Tidal range impact on tidal current?
TR 59TWh/y
TC 45TWh/y
TC 45TWh/y
• Large scale extraction – overall current and range balance out
• Smaller scale extraction – tidal range impacts tidal current
Note – if there is a combination of tidal current and tidal range
installed in one estuary, there is likely to be interactions
10
The Severn Outer impact?
TR 12.9GW
TR 16.4GW (Severn Outer)
TC 3GW
TC 3GW
Downstream -0.35 to -1.75
Greater far field effects
Downstream -0.1 to -1.75m
Interaction between Tidal Range
schemes in Irish Sea
11
Impact in the Irish Sea/European coast?
TR 55GW
TC 38GW
Increase of c.1m
European coastline
Rye and Dymchurch minor
downstream effects
12
THE CROWN ESTATE LEASED SITES (1GW),
CARDIFF-WESTON,
100MW IN ALDERNEY
• Impacts focused on the Severn Estuary
13
PENTLAND FIRTH BATCH TESTING
• DCSM
• Batching testing in CCSM possible
• Multiple confirmation runs in the DCSM recommended
• CoE analysis required
14
OPTIMISATION
UK resource needs optimisation and management:
1. Maximising energy generation (independent of a cost of energy threshold).
2. Maximising energy generation (minimising cost of energy or to threshold(s)).
3. Minimising the impacts on environmental / other constraints (i.e. consentability).
4. Maximising power smoothing (regionally or nationally).
5. Minimising impacts on the existing grid network (i.e. short-term buildability).
SMARTtide has the potential to assist and automate any work on
UK resource optimisation.
15
CONCLUSIONS
• Potential for optimisation of schemes and overall interactions.
• Overall tidal current resource is greater than previous studies for the same
assumptions, due to more highly resolved modelling (as expected).
• Tidal current sites no impact on tidal range sites.
• Tidal range development has minimal impact on tidal current sites.
• Severn Outer barrage has a significantly more severe far-field impact.
• Extreme cases can increase tidal range, in particular in the Irish Sea and
surroundings, and are unlikely to be acceptable.
SMARTtide Model is unique in terms of:
• Coverage and resolution;
• Validation by ETI’s Technical Advisors;
• Ease of access.
16
Launch of SMARTtide
Features and Benefits
21st May 2013
Mark Liddiard, HR Wallingford
Video
Please download the video from the SMARTtide website:
http://www.hrwallingford.com/smarttide
21st May 2013
© HR Wallingford 2013
Uses of
Tidal Energy Installations





Energy extraction
Examination of interactions
Site selection for turbine arrays
Support to leasing and permitting applications
Tidal barrages and lagoon support
Other Uses

Examination of tidal flows around other marine structures
 Seabed mounted wave energy converters
 Foundations of offshore wind farms
Wide area modelling of sediment mobility and coastal erosion
 Other regional flow modelling requirements

21st May 2013
Why is







effective?
High resolution provides greater accuracy and more informed results
Calibration and validation data is included in the product
Wide geographical coverage of all the UK and Northern European tidal
resources
The model is optimised to run on high performance computers
The time to execute runs is favourable compared to
Users receive results of significant investment which would not be economical
to repeat on an individual basis
The model includes the best available bathymetry set which would be
economically disadvantageous to purchase for this scale of model
21st May 2013
– User Information
Overview






Project information is available at
www.hrwallingford.com/projects/sma
rttide
All client information will be held on a
confidential database at HR
Wallingford
Registered Users will download input
files and User Guide
Terms and Conditions to be
accepted by User
User uploads completed input files
and model runs automatically
GIS compatible output files are then
sent to User via email
21st May 2013
– Quick Start Guide
www.hrwallingford.com/smarttide






Step 1: Select your product
Step 2: Licence to be accepted by User,
purchase product and receive e-receipt
Step 3: Email SMARTtide to register
additional Users. Login details will be
emailed to the User
Step 4: Login and download the
supporting documents
Step 5: Upload your files and receive a
confirmation email informing you of a
valid upload
Step 6: Follow instructions received in
an automated email to download results
21st May 2013
Pricing Structure
Model Pricing:





CCSM and DTRM are available
on 500 run pre-booked blocks for
£3000
DCSM is available for £2000 per
run (DCSM requires hosting on
HPC)
Target turn around time is 2
working days
Contract will be via seazonemarket.weogeo.com
Technical support will be
available at
[email protected]
21st May 2013
Maximum tidal range Atlas produced by the DCSM
Summary
Purchasing model runs on SMARTtide is a small investment for the quality of
data
 SMARTtide provides a shared resource for the tidal energy industry and
others
 All data inputted will be subject to confidentiality and held securely by HR
Wallingford (please see licence conditions of use)

21st May 2013
Official launch of SMARTtide
Use of the SMARTtide model(s)
21 May 2013
S.E. Bourban – All Energy Conference
Role of HR Wallingford (1/2)
Maintenance of model data / software / hardware
 Bathymetry accessed / processed through SeaZone of HR Wallingford with
license agreements in place with various Hydrographic Offices
 TPXO’s European Shelf subset model (Oregon State University, USA)
 The TELEMAC system, owned by EDF, France ( open source distribution )
 The High Performance Computing Resources
 Other critical bits and pieces …
Maintenance of model performance
 UK Tidal Gauge Network (British Oceanographic Data Centre)
 XTIDE database (created by David Flater, distributed open source GPLv3)
and T-TIDE (University of BC, Canada and IOS, Canada)
Do you have any data we can use ?
21 May 2013
Role of HR Wallingford (2/2)
… whereas
 Models have been created through the TRM project commissioned by the ETI
 Models are licensed by the ETI to HR Wallingford to manage / develop SMARTtide
 Model use (through SMARTtide) is licensed by HR Wallingford
 Partners in the TRM projects to provide packaged consultancy services
 Models are accessible to HR Wallingford for any modification / customisation /
additional output production etc.
 Models provided “as is” (as provided by the ETI)
 Although, your feedback is important –
HR Wallingford (the ETI) is here to provide you with what you need
21 May 2013
Accessing SMARTtide (1/3)
Access to the WUI ( Web User Interface )
 Registration / Confirmation Email / Reset your password / Login
http://www.hrwallingford.com/smarttide
21 May 2013
Use of the WUI
 All inputs into one ZIP, upload and wait for automated e-mail trail
Please upload inputs
Please download outputs
Waiting for
completion
21 May 2013
Waiting for the WUI
 C-CSM runs 15-day prediction between 20 to 60 minutes of computing time
within a target of 12 hours, and a 2-day acceptable period
 D-CSM runs 15-day prediction between 2 to 5 hours computing time
 D-TRM runs 15-day prediction in about 10 hours computing time
 Depends on existing loads –
Could not proceed …
HR Wallingford can increase hardware
resources if it can be planned in advance
What could go wrong ?




Error: user not registered
Error: no more credits
Error: naming convention not followed
HR Wallingford is monitoring the situation …
21 May 2013
A few more details (1/3)
Tidal energy scenario …
 … is made of tidal range scheme(s) and / or tidal current scheme(s)
one scheme is made of its parameters and its geography (lat-long WGS84)
To simplify things …
 Common approach to tidal current / range schemes
 Common approach to all models ( C-CSM, D-CSM and D-TRM )
 Common inputs:
– parameters as (.csv)-file based on the provided MS Excel spread-sheet
– geography as (.shp)-file based on user defined polylines/polygons
 Common outputs:
– maps contours as (.mxd)-files and contours (.shp)-files for ArcMap10
(differences in tidal range, peak velocity, kinetic power density, etc.)
– time series as (.csv)-files for MS Excel
(time discharges, tidal range and tidal current power, and drag)
21 May 2013
Model representation
 Clustering of islands, small inlets / headlands
 Mesh of adaptable, boundary fitted triangles
– 8% mesh growth
– C-CSM, 1km+, 300,000+elem.=>24 CPUs
– D-TRM 50m+, 160,000+ elem.=> 3 CPUs
– D-CSM 200m +, 3 Millions+ elem.=> 72 CPUs
21 May 2013
Model extent / resolution
21 May 2013
Model extent / resolution
… so far …
21 May 2013
C-CSM
D-CSM
Input parameters (1/3)
Tidal range scheme

A geometric oriented open line
 ESRI shape and scheme ID

A set of parameters defining:




Turbines’ / Sluices’ characteristics
Pumps’ characteristics
Width and numbers / Packaging
Operational mode and rules
21 May 2013
Tidal current scheme

A geometric closed line

A set of parameters defining:




Turbines’ characteristics
Structural drag characteristics
Footprint / Packaging
Power / Thrust characteristics
21 May 2013
Bathymetry changes

A geometric closed line

A set of values defining either:
 One z-value (mMSL) per closed line
 A set of x,y,z-values (mMSL)
within the closed line
21 May 2013
Output results (1/3)
(Temporal) time series
at individual TR sites
 Upstream / downstream water levels
 Discharges through the structure
(sluices, turbines, pumps, etc.)
 Power generated at structure
(Temporal) time series
at individual TC sites
 Drag forces
 Mechanical energy extracted
21 May 2013
(Spatial) iso-contours
 Differences against base-case
scenario are calculated
 Four global maps are assembled
– Abs. diff. of kinetic power (kW/m2)
– Abs. diff. of max tidal range (m)
– % diff. of max tidal range (%)
– % diff. of mid speed (%)
 Outputs as ESRI shape and tif files
are extracted base on the iso-values
opposite and zipped with coastline
and model extent
21 May 2013
ArcMap (.mxd)-file
 Includes model
extent / coastline
21 May 2013
Official launch of SMARTtide
Use of the SMARTtide model(s)
21 May 2013
S.E. Bourban – All Energy Conference

ETI Marine Programme

Transcription

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