Outlook for Irish and EU Beef / Cattle Supplies

Outlook for Irish and EU
Beef / Cattle Supplies
Joe Burke
January 2015
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
BORD BIA
Growing
the success of Irish food
& horticulture
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
28 JANUARY
2009
Supply Review and Outlook
• Irish Cattle Availability
• EU Beef Production
• Price Situation
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
40,000
ROI weekly finished cattle supplies (head)
Head / Week
35,000
2014
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
2013
10% Increase in Cattle Supplies
(+153,000 head)
5,000
0
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Average Carcase Weights Increase by 9kg
Kg Carcase Weight
363.5
360
348.9 351.9
Source:
DAFM
356.2
2013
2014
340
320
309.3
299.1
300
315.7
301.8
280
260
240
Steers
Young Bulls
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Heifers
Cows
Male Cattle Numbers by Age Category on 1st December
Head
1,000,000
-17,000
Source:
AIM
-48,000
800,000
2013
600,000
400,000
2014
-12,000
200,000
0
0-12
12-24
24-36
Age Category (Months)
Note an additional 5,000 steers slaughtered in December ‘14 vs. ‘13
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Female Beef Cattle no.s by Age Category on 1st December
700,000
+11,000
-32,000
600,000
2013
2014
500,000
Head
400,000
-9,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
0-12
12-24
24-36
Age Category (Months)
4,000 extra heifers slaughtered in December ‘14 vs. ‘13
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Source:
AIM
Calf Births recover by 1.8%
Million Head
Total Calf Registrations 2012-2014(E)
2.00
1.60
1.086
1.113
1.155
Dairy
1.20
Suckler
0.80
0.40
1.117
0.994
0.990
2012
2013
2014(E)
0.00
Source – Calf Births: AIM
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Thousand Head
Calf Registrations by Breed Jan-Dec 2014 vs ‘13
800
-3.2%
700
600
500
-0.4%
400
2013
-2.0%
2014
+13.5%
300
+19.6%
200
100
-9.5%
-0.1%
BB
SIM
0
Source - AIM
FR
LM
CH
AA
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
HE
Live Cattle Exports by Category (2012 - 2014)
Thousand Head
250
200
Adult/Finished Cattle
150
Weanlings/Stores
100
Calves
50
0
2012
2013
2014
• Calf exports 12% higher, at 101,603 hd
• Weanlings & stores up 7%, to 75,312 hd
• Adult cattle rose by 24%, to 59,918 hd
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Live Cattle Exports 2014
Distribution of Live Exports from Ireland up to w/e. 28th Dec.
(000’ head)
2013
2014
% change
Total
NI
GB
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Belgium
Libya
Other int. mkt.s
209,481
54,555
11,258
26,047
36,844
31,521
19,534
14,542
4,576
236,833
54,414
18,112
29,999
44,274
38,204
21,727
17,667
4,677
+13%
-0.3%
+61%
+15%
+20%
+21%
+11%
+21%
+2%
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Cattle Supply Forecast 2015
•
Analysis of AIM database
•
Calf registrations declined by
96,000 head in 2013 vs. 2012.
•
Exports of calves & weanlings increased
by 54,000 head in 2013 vs. 2012.
•
Actual supply pattern dictated by:
live exports, grazing conditions &
producer decisions
Likely to have 120-150,000 fewer finished cattle
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Cattle Supply Forecast 2015 (000’ head)
2013
2014
2015 (F)
Steers
527
612
540 - 570
Y Bulls
185
188
160 - 175
Heifers
374
430
370 - 390
Cows
367
367
355 - 370
Other
38
47
38 - 42
Total
1,491
1,644
1,500 - 1,530
Likely range: 120-150,000 fewer finished cattle available
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
UK
•
•
•
•
European Markets
Cattle Supplies 2014
Jan-Nov throughput +1.4%
Production (tonnage) +3.4%
Steers +7% / YB’s -13.5%
2013 calf crop -80,000 head
France
Germany
• Production +2.5%
• Production +3.2%
• Live Exps: -3.6%
(EU Commission)
EU Beef Production 3.5% higher
Italythan 2013
Spain
• Production -3.0%
• Live imports +35%
• Live exports -30%
• Production -1.5%
• Cattle imports -2.6% (1.1m)
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU beef production trend for 2015
‘000 tonnes
Volumes are forecast to contract by 1% in 2015
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
+3.5%
-2.1%
-1.5%
2014(E)
-2.5%
+1%
Source: EU Commission beef forecast working group
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
-9%
+3.5%
2015(F)
0%
Performance of Irish Cattle Price
R3 steers c/kg excl VAT
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2012: €3.86/kg
2011: €3.44/kg
2010: €2.91/kg
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2013: €4.07/kg
2014: €3.70/kg
Producer Prices: Ireland vs. Europe & UK
(c/kg excl VAT)
UK R3 Steers
450
400
Ireland R3 Steers
350
Continental
European R3
Young Bull
300
250
(w/e 28/12) Irish Price €3.86/kg, UK €4.57/kg, Continental EU Av. €3.70/kg;
In Italy, R-grade young bull price: €3.81/kg, Spain: €3.59, France: €3.76, Germany €3.85
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Summary
• Irish cattle availability to decline in 2015
• EU beef production to contract slightly
• Producer prices have fallen across all
EU markets in comparison with 2013.
• UK (and Irish) prices have recovered in
recent months.
• Continental prices remain well below
this time last year
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture