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FEASIBILITY STUDY
FOR THE UPGRADING OF THE ROAD SECTION DEMIR
KAPIJA – UDOVO – SMOKVICA OF PAN-EUROPEAN
CORRIDOR X
FINAL REPORT
April 17th 2007
Prepared by: Marios Miltiadou, Transport Engineer
Scientific Advisor: Socrates Basbas, Dr. Transport Engineer
External Advisor: Lazaros Lazaridis, Civil Engineer
FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR THE UPGRADING OF THE ROAD SECTION DEMIR KAPIJA – UDOVO SMOKVICA OF PAN-EUROPEAN CORRIDOR X
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
5
1.
PREFACE
11
2.
SCOPE, OBJECTIVES AND CONTENT OF THE WORK
13
3.
METHODOLOGY AND BACKGROUND INFORMATION
17
3.1
3.2
REVIEW OF EXISTING STUDIES AND OTHER AVAILABLE INFORMATION
EVALUATION OF AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND DATA UPDATES
17
REQUIREMENTS AND DESIGN OF DATA COLLECTION PROCESS
17
3.3
DATA COLLECTION SURVEYS AND COOPERATION WITH STAKEHOLDERS
IN THE F.Y.R. OF MACEDONIA
3.4 TOOLS
3.4.1 TOOLS FOR THE TRAFFIC FORECASTS
3.4.2 TOOLS FOR THE EVALUATION OF VARIOUS ALTERNATIVES OF THE PROJECT
3.4.3 TOOLS FOR THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (NPV, IRR, B/C RATIO)
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4.
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PRESENTATION OF THE PROJECT
4.1 EXISTING SITUATION
4.1.1 PAN-EUROPEAN ROAD CORRIDOR X
4.1.2 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF PROJECTS ON ROAD CORRIDOR X IN THE FORMER
YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
4.1.3 EXISTING ROAD GEOMETRICAL CHARACTERISTICS
4.1.3.1 Length of section
4.1.3.2 Cross section
4.1.3.3 Horizontal alignment
4.1.3.4 Design speed
4.1.3.5 Vertical alignment
4.1.3.6 Pavement
4.1.3.7 Structures
4.1.3.8 Intersections
4.1.3.9 Traffic signs
4.1.3.10 Lighting
4.1.3.11 Road facilities
4.1.3.12 Traffic counters and toll stations
4.1.4 EXISTING ROAD OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS
4.1.4.1 Traffic flows
4.1.4.2 Traffic flows characteristics
4.1.4.3 Accidents
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4.2
ALTERNATIVES OF INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT (ROAD PHYSICAL
AND OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS INCLUDING TOLL STATIONS)
4.2.1 ALTERNATIVE A: DO MINIMUM
4.2.2 MOTORWAY CONSTRUCTION (ALTERNATIVES B, C, D)
4.2.2.1 General description – Design speeds and typical cross-sections
4.2.2.5 Pavement
4.2.2.6 Structures
4.2.2.7 Traffic interchanges
4.2.2.8 Environmental protection equipment
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5.
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TRAFFIC FORECASTS
5.1 PRESENTATION OF THE TOOL FOR TRAFFIC FORECASTS
5.1.1 METHODOLOGY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORECASTING TOOL
5.1.1.1 Data collection – Construction of the base year database
5.1.1.2 Methodological issues and constraints
5.1.1.3 Adopted methodology and assumptions for the scenarios’ development
5.1.2 THE SCENARIOS
5.1.3 ESTIMATION OF THE PASSENGER AND FREIGHT FLOWS
5.1.3.1 Estimation of the international passenger and freight flows on Corridor X
5.1.3.2 The model
5.1.3.3 Estimation of local traffic and assignment of road Corridor X
5.2 FORMULATION OF SCENARIOS (TIME HORIZONS)
5.3 TRAFFIC FORECASTS
5.3.1 EVALUATION OF TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS
5.3.1.1 General conclusions of the traffic flows forecasting of the Technical Secretariat of
Corridor X
5.3.1.2 Results and evaluation of results of the various available traffic flows forecasting
exercises
5.3.1.3 Traffic projection to various target years
5.4 EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES LEVEL OF SERVICE IN FUNCTION WITH
6.
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THE FORECASTED TRAFFIC FLOWS
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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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6.1 PARAMETERS OF THE ANALYSIS
6.1.1 DETERMINATION OF EXPECTED COST ELEMENTS
6.1.1.1 Construction cost
6.1.1.2 Operational expenses (annual and periodical maintenance)
6.1.2 DETERMINATION OF EXPECTED BENEFIT ELEMENTS
6.1.2.1 Time savings
6.1.2.2 Benefits form the vehicle operational costs reduction
6.1.2.3 Benefits from time savings as far as the vehicle users are concerned
6.1.2.4 Benefits from the reduction in the number of road accidents
6.1.2.5 Residual value of the project
6.1.2.6 Installation and operation of toll stations
6.1.3 CONSIDERATION OF ELEMENTS WHICH CANNOT BE QUANTIFIED
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6.1.3.1 Consumer surplus
6.1.3.2 Spatial and regional development aspects
6.1.3.3 Employment impacts
6.2 ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS
6.3 FINANCING ASPECTS
6.3.1 TOLL REVENUES
6.3.2 CASH FLOW
6.4 RESULTS OF THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
6.5 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS – COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES
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6.6
AND RANKING
CONCLUSIONS CONCERNING THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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7.
RECOMMENDATIONS
95
BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS – REFERENCES
97
ANNEXES
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A.
B.
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ISSUES DISCUSSED AT THE TECHNICAL MEETING IN SKOPJE (01.03.2007)
RESULTS OF THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The feasibility study for the improvement of the road section between Demir Kapija
– Udovo – Smokvica, part of the Main Axis of Pan-European Transport Corridor X in
the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, has been carried out by Egnatia Odos
S.A. (E.O.A.E.) at the request of the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The methodology followed for the current study is fully aligned with the standards
set by the Greek Ministry of Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works and
the European Commission.
The project appraisal has been carried out in socio-economic level with the Cost
Benefit Analysis.
The road section of the existing E-75 (M-1) road between Demir Kapija and Smokvica
has a total length of 35.834km. The examined alignments for motorway construction
are two:

Alignment 1 is the one proposed and designed in detail by Scetauroute
International in 2000, also approved by the local government, and foresees
the transformation of the existing M-1 road to motorway profile. The total
length of Alignment 1 is 32.15km, which can be divided into two subsections:
Subsection Demir Kapija – Udovo, 19.9km through the “gorge” and the
subsection Udovo – Smokvica, 12.25km through the valley southwards of the
“gorge”.

Alignment 2 foresees the construction of a totally new motorway on the west
bank of the Vardar River. The total length of Alignment 2 is 28.05km
The construction period is six (6) years for Alignment 1 and three (3) years for
Alignment 2. Therefore, with start of construction works in 2008, the foreseen
completion of the project is the end of 2013 and 2010, respectively.
The motorway will be completely open to traffic in 2014 in the case of Alignment 1
and in 2011 in the case of Alignment 2.
Four options are examined in the cost benefit analysis. The “Do minimum”
alternative (Alternative A) concerns the upgrading of the existing road. Three
alternatives of motorway construction are examined for both alignments:
Alternative B examines the construction of a motorway with cross-section width of
22.6m; Alternative C examines the construction of a motorway with cross-section
width of 24.6m; and Alternative D examines the construction of a motorway with the
cross-section widths proposed by the designs of the two alignments: For Alignment 1
the cross section on the easy parts (Udovo – Smokvica) is 27.6m wide and in the
gorge is 26.4m. For Alignment 2 the cross section is 28.2m along the entire motorway.
The traffic analysis has exploited traffic statistics from the period 1989 – 2002, which
includes the period of crisis in the region, and some recent data of the years 2005EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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2006. The last year’s increase of traffic was more than 25%; however, such growth is
not expected to occur continuously over the entire analysis period.
The average annual traffic growth rate used in the study during the entire period of
analysis is 4%, with the realistic assumption of higher growth factor of 5% in the
initial years of analysis to represent the anticipated increase of traffic to reach the
levels of 1990 by the years between 2015 and 2020 (depending on the upgrading
alternative) and taking into consideration the dynamic of a developing country in the
region of the Western Balkans in their E.U. direction. Annual traffic growth rates of
4% and 3% (for the next two decades, respectively) are considered realistic to be
retained even after a prospective EU enlargement within the following years, due to
the simplification (or even elimination) of border crossing procedures and the
diversion of traffic from other competitive European routes (e.g. bypass of
international traffic through Romania and Bulgaria).
Addition of traffic applied for the motorway solutions is 15%. It is assumed that this
percentage represents the generated traffic, as well as the traffic diverted from other
Pan-European Corridors in the area and from other national and regional roads (M-5
and M-6 to/from Strumica and Dojran).
Traffic forecasts have been reduced after the introduction of tolls, with diversion of
7.7% of traffic, mainly local, to the alternative road network (diversion of 9% of
private cars, 3% of buses and 5% of heavy trucks). Especially for Alignment 2 an
additional 14.8% of the traffic (almost triple in total compared to traffic diversion in
the case of Alignment 1) was considered intermediate local traffic around Udovo and
was subtracted, due to the fact that an interchange is not foreseen at Udovo.
In summary the weighed average AADT along the proposed motorway of
Alignment 1 from Demir Kapija to Smokvica is estimated at 5,881 veh/day (8,230
PCUs/day) in 2015, 8,789 veh/day (12,300 PCUs/day) in 2025, and 11,926 veh/day
(16,691 PCUs/day) in 2035.
For Alignment 2 the forecast is 4,901 veh/day (7,108 PCUs/day) in 2015, 7,324
veh/day (10,623 PCUs/day) in 2025, and 9,939 veh/day (14,414 PCUs/day) in 2035.
Total costs for the various alternatives of motorway construction are summarised for
the two alignments in the following table:
Alignment
1
2
Economic construction cost (€)
Alternative B
Alternative C
Alternative D
152,613,331
156,621,546
144,501,616
114,829,350
125,149,748
107,989,433
The costs of the alternatives of narrower sections, compared to the costs of
Alternatives D are lower at 2.6% and at 7.7% for the cases (respectively) of
Alternatives C and B of Alignment 1, while for Alignment 2 the respective reduction
is of 8.25% and 13.7%.
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Construction costs, operational and maintenance costs have been compared with
quantified impacts used in the socioeconomic analysis of the project, which include:

Benefits from vehicle operating costs reduction
Benefits from time savings
Benefits from accidents reduction
Residual value of project
These benefits were examined for the expected traffic with or without the project.
Consumer surplus benefits expected from the additional traffic were not included in
the economic analysis that would cause higher values of the economic indices.
The results of the socioeconomic analysis for the motorway Alternative D for the
period 2008 – 2032 (25 years after the commencement of construction works) are as
follows:
Alignment 1
Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR)
Net Present Value (NPV) – Discount rate 8%
Benefits over Costs ratio (B/C)
1.91%
-68,486,440 €
-56,714,117 €
-36,349,902 €
0.36
Alignment 2
5.87%
-21,681,005 €
-1,573,624 €
28,638,824 €
0.77
Respectively for alternatives B and C the results of socioeconomic analysis are:
Alignment 1
Alternative B
2.33%
-59,456,895 €
-47,430,231 €
-27,013,094 €
0.40
Alternative C
2.05%
-65,523,614 €
-53,644,360 €
-33,220,670 €
0.37
Alternative B
7.06%
-8,442,372 €
11,501,944 €
41,109,817 €
0.90
Alternative C
6.49%
-14,290,808 €
5,584,182 €
35,252,837 €
0.84
Alignment 2
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Finally, for the “Do minimum” alternative (Alternative A) the economic analysis
results NPV of -19,589,010 € and B/C ratio of 0.10. The IRR is not defined. The
analysis included the costs for an upgrade in 2008 and rehabilitation in 2023, as well
as the annual operational and maintenance costs of the existing E-75 road.
Sensitivity analysis for alteration of critical parameters (construction costs,
operational costs and traffic), carried out for the three motorway alternatives of each
alignment, resulted the following:
Alignment 1
Initial EIRR value
Increase of construction costs by
10%
Reduction of construction costs
by 10%
Increase of operational costs by
10%
Reduction of operational costs by
10%
Increase of traffic by 10%
Reduction of traffic by 10%
Alternative B
Alternative C
Alternative D
2.33%
2.05%
1.91%
1.70%
1.42%
1.29%
3.05%
2.75%
2.60%
2.25%
1.96%
1.81%
2.42%
2.13%
2.00%
2.83%
1.83%
3.32%
1.30%
2.52%
1.56%
2.99%
1.06%
2.38%
1.42%
2.85%
0.92%
Alignment 2
Initial EIRR value
Increase of construction costs by
10%
Reduction of construction costs
by 10%
Increase of operational costs by
10%
Reduction of operational costs by
10%
Alternative B
Alternative C
Alternative D
7.06%
6.49%
5.87%
6.17%
5.63%
5.05%
8.09%
7.48%
6.83%
6.98%
6.40%
5.78%
7.13%
6.57%
5.96%
7.96%
6.13%
8.85%
5.17%
7.35%
5.60%
8.20%
4.69%
6.70%
5.03%
7.51%
4.16%
Other unquantifiable impacts, such as the environmental, spatial – regional and
employment impacts have been considered.
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Concerning the environmental impacts of the project, it must be stressed that the
Demir Kapija canyon is a very sensitive region; special attention should be paid for
any of the qualified motorway alignment/ alternative. The environmental impacts of
each of the two alignments examined are currently being studied and it is very
crucial to be taken fully into consideration before the final decision for the project
realisation.
According to the assurance of the designers of the new alignment (Alignment 2) on
the west side of Vardar River, this solution is more environmentally friendly
compared to Alignment 1. The design of the new alignment avoids extensive cuts
and embankments, sites of archaeological interest and the offence of Bela Voda Cave,
while it has no conflict with a future dam to be constructed in Vardar River.
Concerning direct employment impacts, it is expected that the realisation of
Alignment 1 would result around to 2,190 jobs (13,150 man-years) during the
construction period and around to 55 jobs for the annual maintenance and operation
of the motorway. Further labour needs of 1,100 man-years are also expected for the
periodical maintenance of the motorway during the analysis period. The respective
figures for Alignment 2 are 3,700 jobs (11,150 man-years) during the construction
period, around to 45 jobs for annual maintenance and operation and around to 900
man-years for periodical maintenance.
Indirect employment is expected due to the increase of labour force employment at
enterprises providing material and equipment during the construction and
operation/ maintenance of the project. Additional jobs are also expected with the
development of motorway service areas along the entire Corridor X in the F.Y.R. of
Macedonia.
In conclusion the project realisation should be considered, apart from the technoeconomic point of view, in combination with its expected social, regional and spatial
benefits, taking also into account the following EU transport policy related
considerations:

The project is a part of the backbone of the South East Transport Core
Network, the Pan-European Corridor X and on the South Eastern European
priority axis defined by the HLG of EC/ DG TREN chaired by ex
Commissioner de Palacio.
The project is a significant missing link of the Main part of Corridor X
motorway and with its construction the completion of a 1,450km motorway
will be achieved by 2012 (according to the existing national plans and
commitments, a motorway which serves international transit flows of goods
and passengers from Central Europe to Turkey and Asia and vice-versa.
The project contributes to the arsis of the isolation of the Western Balkans,
regional development and cohesion of a future region of the European Union.
The project contributes to the strengthening of the bilateral relations of
Greece and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia through the
facilitation of trade and tourism by improving the access between Skopje and
Thessaloniki and the Central Macedonia region.
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Finally, it gives improved access to the Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia to the sea and specifically to the port of Thessaloniki, which also
contributes to the increase of the regional and international role of the port.
Therefore, the realisation of the project is subjected to a political and not only technoeconomic decision.
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1.
PREFACE
The feasibility study for the improvement of the road section between Demir Kapija,
Udovo and Smokvica, part of the Main Axis of Pan-European Transport Corridor X
in Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, has been carried out by Egnatia Odos
S.A. (E.O.A.E.) at the request of the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The road section under study, 35.834km of existing infrastructure, is of major
importance for both the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and the Republic of
Greece. For this reason the Government Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has
shown interest in applying for financial support for the improvement of this road
section, under the special financial aid program of the Greek Ministry of Foreign
Affairs called “Hellenic Plan for the Economic Reconstruction of the Balkans”
(Hi.P.E.R.B.).
In 2002, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia submitted to the Greek
Ministry of Foreign Affairs two unofficial applications for financial support for the
motorway construction of Tabanovce – Kumanovo and Demir Kapija – Gevgelija.
In 2004, a new unofficial application was submitted for motorway construction of
Demir Kapija – Smokvica, since the financing of the southern section between
Smokvica and Gevgelija was secured by the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development.
Most recently, in November and December 2006, intensive negotiations took place
between the Secretariat for European Affairs, responsible authority for the
implementation of the Hi.P.E.R.B. in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,
and the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Those negotiations concluded to the
immediate speed up of the procedures for the technical documentation of the project
and the submission of a respective official application for Hi.P.E.R.B.
During the above-mentioned negotiations, the immediate elaboration of a feasibility
study was agreed, which would be the update of the feasibility study elaborated by
Scetauroute in 1999 (for the section Demir Kapija – Gevgelija), and would also
comprise the examination of an alternative alignment designed at preliminary level,
simultaneously with the feasibility study, by E.O.A.E. and the Fund for National and
Regional Roads (F.N.R.R.) of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
In this aspect, the Secretariat for European Affairs has submitted part of the technical
documentation already prepared by Scetauroute International, namely the feasibility
study and the detailed design studies for the basic alignment.
Finally it is noted that, the bilateral agreement includes also the examination of
alternative types of technical interventions on the entire section, in order to secure
the economic feasibility of the project and give the potential for co-financing of the
project. Hence, this feasibility study attempts to make a comparative examination of
alternative motorway solutions, as well as the new alignment put on table by the
F.N.R.R. on the west side of the Vardar River.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the following Institutions,
Authorities and individuals:
The Secretariat for European Affairs of the Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia, primarily the Head of the Sector for Foreign Aid Coordination, Mr.
Jovan Despotovski.
The Director and the staff of the Fund for National and Region Roads of the
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
The Technical Secretariat of the Steering Committee for the Pan-European
Transport Corridor X.
Their consultation, provision of data and information contributed the most in the
elaboration of the present study.
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2.
SCOPE, OBJECTIVES AND CONTENT OF THE WORK
Pan-European Road Corridor X is one of the ten priority Corridors in the wider
European area and the backbone of the Transport Core Network of Southeast
Europe. It coincides with the Southeast Priority Axis as defined in November 2005 by
the EC/ DG TREN High Level Group, chaired by the memorable ex Commissioner
Mrs. Loyola de Palacio.
Corridor X is the north-south Corridor running through the territory of the Former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia with a total length of 332.28km of existing
infrastructure, while Corridor VIII is the west-east Corridor. Both Corridors are of
major importance for the country, since their development will ensure better service
of its domestic and international traffic and will enhance trade, economic
development and regional cohesion in Europe. Corridor X, and mainly the Main Axis
of the Corridor, is the first priority for the government, proved by the fact that
substantial progress has been made during the last years, while its completion is
anticipated in the forthcoming years.
Source: Fund for National and Regional Roads
Map 2.1: Pan-European Corridors of interest in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
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Map 2.2: Constructed motorways along the Pan-European Corridors VIII and X in the Former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (in green colour)
Furthermore, Corridor X is of significant importance to Greece, being the traditional
route connecting Greece with Central Europe. Due to the war crisis in the region in
the 1990’s, infrastructures have been damaged and neglected. The service of the
freight and passenger (incl. tourist) traffic flows to and from Greece became more
complicated with the creation of four new states along the route; six additional
border stations were introduced on the main Corridor.
Both countries, in the framework of their intensive cooperation, target the
revitalisation of Corridor X. Their common will is also confirmed by their
cooperation through their agreement for the implementation of the Hellenic Plan for
the Economic Reconstruction of the Balkans (Hi.P.E.R.B.), the Memorandum of
Understanding for Cooperation on Corridor X and the signed Protocol for the
improvement of border-crossings along Corridor X.
The general objective of the present study is to contribute to the upgrading of the
most critical part of the national road network and Corridor X in the Former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, enhancing domestic and international trade and
passenger flows, leading to lower economic transport costs and economic efficiency
gains.
The scope of the current study is to examine the feasibility of various technical
alternatives for the improvement of the road section of Pan-European Corridor X in
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the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, namely the section from Demir Kapija
to Smokvica, close to the borders with Greece.
Within the scope of the study is the determination of the maturity degree of a project
to be financed by the Greek Government through the Hi.P.E.R.B.
The content of works includes the following actions:
exploitation of existing traffic data and formulation of traffic forecast scenarios for
the sections under consideration, for the identification of existing or potential
future bottlenecks, including details on the share of heavy vehicles, seasonality,
etc.
identification of a set of technical project alternatives in terms of design standards
and technical variants, which will ensure a homogeneous level of service between
Demir Kapija and Smokvica, taking into account the particular terrain
characteristics and their influence on cost, environmental aspects, and traffic
demand on the respective sections. The considered alternatives encompass the
transformation of the existing carriageway to a motorway, as well as the
construction of a completely new motorway on the opposite (west) side of the
River Vardar.
evaluation of the economic feasibility of each considered alternative and provision
of a ranking of possible schemes.
Of course, the proper elaboration of the study presupposed and depended on
specific coordination requirements, and namely on the full co-ordination with all the
concerned institutional parties and stakeholders in the Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia and ascertainment that their requirements are duly taken into account.
The parties and stakeholders to consult include the following:
the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to examine the requirements of the Greek
Government;
the Secretariat for European Affairs of the Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia (National Coordinator for the Hi.P.E.R.B); and
the Fund for National and Region Roads of the Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia to obtain all necessary data and information, get advice and assistance
for the preparation of the feasibility study and the fulfilment of the legal, technical
and administrative requirements.
The activities of E.O.A.E. can be grouped as follows:
Fact finding and data collection: Review of all relevant documentation (feasibility
studies, designs, etc.), meetings with all the parties and stakeholders (in order to
gather information) and analysis of existing data.
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Technical project definition: Establishment of alternative engineering proposals
for the road sections and assessment of various cross-sections for the two
alignments considered for a future motorway.
Economic feasibility determination: Based on cost estimates for the alternatives
considered and including land acquisition, construction and maintenance costs,
and assessment of the benefits of vehicle operating cost, time savings and
accidents reduction, the economic feasibility, as indicated by the Internal
Economic Rate of Return determination for each alternative. Construction in
phases is not examined as bilaterally agreed.
Financial assessment: Financial implications for each alternative, including
construction and maintenance costs, the options of toll levying and the effects on
traffic.
Ranking of Schemes: Overall comparison of proposed alternatives, according to
economic, environmental and financial criteria, and ranking establishment
enabling decision by the competent authorities.
Finally, the expected results and deliverables of E.O.A.E. are:
By the 8th week after the project assignment: Delivery of the Draft Final Report
By the 10th week after the project assignment: Delivery of the Final Report
(feasibility study), with traffic data analysis and projections for the relevant road
sections and with the assessment of the feasibility of the alternatives for
improvement, based on technical, environmental and financial criteria and with
recommendation of a preferred alternative.
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3.
METHODOLOGY AND BACKGROUND INFORMATION
The methodology of the study includes the inventory and evaluation of available
data and the collection of the necessary supplementary data, in cooperation with
stakeholders in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and the Technical
Secretariat of Corridor X.
3.1
Review of existing studies and other available information
The methodology included the review of all the relevant technical documentation
and information, which evidently was the cornerstone of the study. The technical
documents made available were the feasibility study and the detail design, prepared
by Scetauroute in 2000, as well as traffic statistics for the national road network.
Those documents were submitted to the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs in
December 2006.
Furthermore, E.O.A.E. had access to the Road Database and the archive of the
Technical Secretariat of the Steering Committee for Pan-European Corridor X. The
Database of Corridor X contains useful data regarding the physical and operational
aspects of the entire Corridor, such as road category, dimensions of cross section,
design and operational speeds, dimensions concerning horizontal and vertical
alignment, annual traffic per section and at borders crossings, traffic composition,
delays at borders etc. It should be noted that information contained in the Database
is based on information and data submitted by the participating countries of the
Steering Committee of the Corridor.
Relevant studies provide useful traffic flow forecasts for the current study: The
Transport Infrastructure Regional Study (TIRS by Luis Berger S.A.), the Regional
Balkans Infrastructure Study (REBIS by COWI) and the traffic flows forecasting
along Corridor X exercise of the Technical Secretariat of the Steering Committee for
Pan-European Corridor X. Additionally, the feasibility study delivered recently for
the Tabanovce – Kumanovo motorway (by Balkan Konsalting DOOEL) was taken
into consideration, in terms of exploiting data and expertise of a local firm.
3.2
Evaluation of available information and data updates requirements and
design of data collection process
The feasibility study and detail design, contained valuable and useful information
and were fully exploited in the current study.
After detailed examination of the available references and the definition of the
followed methodology of the study, the specification of the supplementary data
requirements have been made possible.
After the first examination, a first contact with the responsible authority in the
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (Secretariat for European Affairs – National
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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17
Coordinator for Hi.P.E.R.B.) was made, in order to obtain additional data and
information, as there have been various issues for clarification.
Then a technical meeting was scheduled in order to obtain the necessary information,
with interviews and the use of an appropriately formulated questionnaire. The
thematic sessions discussed during the meetings are attached in Annex A of the
present study.
3.3
Data collection surveys and cooperation with stakeholders in the F.Y.R. of
Macedonia
As previously mentioned the data collection process included the formulation of a
questionnaire for structured interviews for use during the organised technical
meeting in Skopje on March 1st 2007 with the co-responsible authorities and the
specialists of the Funds for National and Regional Roads.
Various issues were discussed and clarified during the meeting. Other issues were
confronted a posteriori via e-mail, while others, and mainly those concerning the
results of the environmental impact studies and the accidents statistics at section
level, remained pending up to the day of completion of this study.
3.4
3.4.1
Tools
Tools for the traffic forecasts
Traffic forecasts for future years have been derived exploiting the traffic model
developed by the Technical Secretariat of Corridor X in 2003. These forecasts (until
the year 2015 – long term horizon of the traffic model as developed) have been
assessed using the most recent data available. For the rest of the period of analysis
forecasts have been derived using appropriate growth factors.
3.4.2
Tools for the evaluation of various alternatives of the project
The exercise of the evaluation of the level of service of the examined alternatives of
development of the road section according to projected traffic was performed on the
basis of the Highway Capacity Manual 2000 for two-lane highways (for the existing
infrastructure) and multilane highways (for the motorway construction alternatives).
3.4.3
Tools for the economic analysis (NPV, IRR, B/C ratio)
Various alternatives of infrastructure development are examined, comprising the
“Do minimum alternative” of lower cost interventions for the upgrade of the existing
infrastructure and the toll-motorway alternatives of two alignments (the one as
proposed by the detail design and the other recently examined at preliminary level)
with various cross sections’ widths and hence different design speeds.
The economic analysis of each alternative under consideration (calculation of Net
Present Value, Internal Rate of Return and Benefit over Cost Ratio) was performed
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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based on the estimates of cost (construction cost, maintenance cost, operational cost
etc.) and benefits (time savings, reduction of vehicle operational cost, accidents
reduction) at each year of operation of the project.
A comparative analysis of the economic evaluations of the alternatives followed and
the alternatives were ranked, so that the most appropriate alternative is defined.
Various sensitivity tests were performed for each alignment/ alternative examined.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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4.
4.1
4.1.1
PRESENTATION OF THE PROJECT
Existing situation
Pan-European Road Corridor X
Pan-European Corridor X is a traditional route linking South-Eastern Europe with
Central Europe, which had served transportation in the area for many decades.
Before the 1990’s this Corridor was fully operational and more or less developed in
terms of road and rail infrastructure. The unfortunate events in former Yugoslavia
have caused a significant drop in traffic along the Corridor and have also influenced
the status of infrastructures and facilities, adding at the same time new international
borders along the Corridor, between the four former Yugoslavian countries.
The multimodal Pan-European Transport Corridor X (Main Axis and four branches),
as defined by the Helsinki declaration, connects:

Salzburg, Ljubljana, Zagreb, Belgrade, Nis, Skopje, Veles and Thessaloniki;
Graz with Maribor and Zagreb (Branch A);
Budapest with Novi Sad and Belgrade (Branch B);
Nis with Sofia [to Istanbul via Corridor IV (Branch C)]; and
Veles with Bitola and Florina [and via Egnatia with Igoumenitsa port (Branch D)].
The alignment of the road infrastructure of Corridor X is represented in Map 4.1.
More specifically, Corridor X refers not only to the road and rail infrastructure, but
also to interconnection points for inland waterways, air, maritime, intermodal and in
particular combined transport infrastructure, including ancillary installations such as
signalling, the installations necessary for traffic management, access links, border
crossing stations, service stations, freight and passenger terminals and warehouses
along the route of the Corridor.
Concerning the road Corridor X, its total length is 2,299.6km and at present consists
of 61.5% multilane motorways and 38.5% highways and other main roads.
The main part of Road Corridor X linking Salzburg and Thessaloniki through
Ljubljana, Zagreb, Belgrade and Skopje is 1,451.4km long and consists of multilane
motorways at a percentage of 80% of its length. The maximum permitted speed
along the Main Axis is 120km/h at most of its sections, and generally the
infrastructure is in good condition.
The percentage of the multilane motorways is foreseen to reach 90% of the Axis by
2008, with construction of all the Slovenian and Croatian sections to full motorway
profile. The remaining sections of the main part of Corridor X in Serbia and
F.Y.R.O.M. that need reconstruction are the Leskovac (Grabovnica) – F.Y.R.O.M.
border (102.13km) and Tabanovce – Kumanovo (7.4km) and Demir Kapija –
Smokvica section (33km) in F.Y.R.O.M.
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Recently, the negotiations of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia with the
World Bank ended up with an agreement for the financing of the Tabanovce –
Kumanovo motorway.
Furthermore, the construction of the Leskovac – Presevo motorway is foreseen by
2012, with Greek financial assistance (21% of total construction cost) through the
Hi.P.E.R.B., as well as the construction of the Belgrade bypass.
Hence, according to the above-mentioned scheduled projects, after five years the
only remaining non-motorway section would be the section under study.
Branch A, from Graz to Zagreb via Maribor, is 163.4km long and consists of
multilane motorways at 55% of its length. This Branch is foreseen to be fully
constructed in motorway profile by 2012.
SALZBURG
BUDAPEST
#
Y
Ξ
AUSTRIA
#
Y
[
%
GRAZ
#
HUNGARY
#
#
#
SZEGED
MARIBOR
#
#
Y
#
#
LJUBLJANA
ROMANIA
#
Y
#
SUBOTICA
#
[
%
#
#
SLOVENIA
ZAGREB
#
[
%
#
CROATIA
Ξ
#
Ξ
#
Y
NOVI SAD
#
#
Ξ
#
#
#
#
BELGRADE
[
%
#
#
Ξ
#
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
#
[
%
Ξ
BULGARIA
NIS
#
SARAJEVO
##
Y
#
##
#
#
SERBIA-MONTENEGRO
SOFIA
#
#
#
[
%
#
#
#
#
ITALY
Ξ
SKOPJE %[
#
#
#
VELES
#
F.Y.R.O.M.
#
#
#
#
#
[
%
TIRANE
ALBANIA
Source: Corridor X Technical Secretariat
#
#
GREECE
#
Y
FLORINA
#
THESSALONIKI
#
Y
Ξ
Map 4.1: Road Corridor X alignment
On Branch B, the 41% of the 352.9km are parts of the M5 motorway in Hungary. The
construction of motorways on the rest of the Branch is foreseen by 2011, through a
recently signed concession for the Horgos – Pozega motorway.
Branch C (191.8km) is consisted by highways at 71% and two-lane main roads at the
rest of its length.
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Finally, Branch D is 140.1km long and consists of highways and other two-lane main
roads. Rehabilitation plans exists for the Greek part of the Branch by 2007 and also
for the section Veles – Prilep in mid-term time horizon.
Concerning all the Corridor, Main Axis and Branches, since 2001 246.96km of
motorways have been constructed, out of sections of total length of 382.59km. The
length of constructed sections corresponds to 64.5% and by the end of the year 2007
will reach 67.7% of planned transformation of highways to motorways (Table 4.1).
Table 4.1: Progress of motorways’ construction along Corridor X since 2001
Part of
Corridor
X
Country
Section
Slovenia
Slovenia
Bic – Obrezje
Vrba – Naklo
Velika Kopanica –
Zupanja – Lipovac
Zagreb – Bregana
Belgrade bypass
Gradsko – Demir
Kapija – Udovo –
Gevgelija
Maribor –
Gruskovje
Kiskunfelegyhaza –
Szeged – Roszke
75.5
20.9
53.56
54.4
4.3
53.56
Length of
sections
planned to be
constructed in
2007 (km)
7.9
3.7
-
13.0
45.33
75.5
13.0
16.8
42.5
-
38.8
2,4
0.6
60.0
60.0
-
Total
382.59
Croatia
Main
Axis
Croatia
Serbia
F.Y.R.
Macedonia
Branch A
Slovenia
Branch B
Hungary
Grand Total
Total
length
(km)
Constructed
length (km)
A=
12.2
64.5%
A + B = 259.16km (67.7%)
246.96
B=
3.2%
4.1.2
General description of projects on road Corridor X in the Former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia
The road section under study is a part of the main Axis of the Pan-European
Corridor X, linking Skopje with Belgrade in the north and Thessaloniki in the south.
Also, Veles in the northwest is the nodal connection point of the Main Axis and
Branch D to Bitola and Florina (and the vertical axis of Egnatia Odos to Kozani).
At present the Main Axis of Corridor X in the Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia is constructed in motorway standards from Kumanovo to Demir Kapija
and from Smokvica to Gevgelija and the Greek borders (Bogorodica cross border
station). The total length of Main Corridor X in F.Y.R. of Macedonia is 174.34km and
the percentage of motorways reaches 75.4%, after the recent transformation of
Negotino – Demir Kapija road to a motorway.
It should be noted that the above figures are affected by the fact that at the motorway
section between Katlanovo and Veles the two carriageways follow a totally different
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alignment and hence the motorway length is also different by 5.07km. The following
table and map give a very clear view of the current situation of the Main Corridor X,
as well as the profile of each motorway section (where emergency lane has been
constructed).
Table 4.2: State of play of Corridor X Main Axis in F.Y.R. of Macedonia
Section
Section close to Serbian border
Tabanovce – Kumanovo
Kumanovo – Miladinovci
Miladinovci – Petrovec
Petrovec – Katlanovo
Katlanovo – Veles (right carriageway)
Katlanovo – Veles (left carriageway)
Veles – Gradsko
Gradsko – Negotino
Negotino – Demir Kapija
Demir Kapija – Udovo
Udovo – Smokvica
Smokvica – Gevgelija
Gevgelija – Greek border
Length (km)
1.084
7.052
21.782
5.846
6.979
27.157
22.087
25.139
16.044
16.525
22.270
13.564
11.228
4.582
Length of motorway (km)
1.084
21.782
5.846
6.979
27.157
22.087
25.139
16.044
16.525
11.228
4.582
Map 4.2: Representation of Corridor X Main Axis in the F.Y.R. of Macedonia
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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The existing road on the section Demir Kapija – Udovo – Smokvica has been
constructed during the period 1960-1964 and has been periodically renewed at some
sections. Rehabilitation, including total repavement of the entire section, was
performed in 1990-1991 through financing of $9million by the World Bank within the
rehabilitation of Gradsko – Gevgelija project.
The following paragraphs provide details of the current status of the road between
Demir Kapija and Smokvica [2].
i. Demir Kapija – Udovo (22.27km)
The road section between Demir Kapija and Udovo was built in 1964. The last
rehabilitation took place in 1990, which included total repavement. The road
condition is good, with one, 3.5m wide, lane per direction and 1m wide stable
shoulders. The condition of the pavement is reported as medium, while the level of
vertical and horizontal signing is not satisfactory, since it is described as damaged
and insufficient.
According to the approved detail design of Scetauroute (2000) it is envisaged that
this section will be transformed to a motorway, with two lanes per direction, 3.5m
wide each, and design speeds of minimum 80km/h and maximum 100km/h. Also, a
second alignment bypassing Udovo has been examined at preliminary level by
E.O.A.E. and F.N.R.R. for the construction of a new motorway on the west bank of
River Vardar, with design speed of 120km/h.
Photo 4.1: Road section Demir Kapija – Udovo
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Photos 4.4 and 4.5: Tunnels on Demir Kapija – Udovo road
ii. Udovo – Smokvica (13.564km)
The road section between Udovo and Smokvica was built in 1960. The last
rehabilitation took place in 1991, which included total repavement. The road
condition is good, with one, 3.5m wide, lane per direction and 1m wide stable
shoulders. The condition of the pavement is reported as medium, while the level of
vertical and horizontal signing is not satisfactory, since it is described as damaged
and insufficient.
According to the approved detail design of Scetauroute (2000) it is envisaged that
this section will be transformed to a motorway according, with design speed of
120km/h. The same design speed is also foreseen by the second alignment examined
by E.O.A.E. and F.N.R.R. that bypasses Udovo by following the west bank of River
Vardar.
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Photo 4.6: Road section Udovo – Smokvica
Photo 4.7: Road section Udovo – Smokvica
The entire section under study is 35.834km long. Data described in the following
paragraphs were derived from the available documents (the feasibility study by
Scetauroute), the Road Database of the Technical Secretariat of Corridor X and
information submitted by the Funds for National and Regional Roads of the Former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
4.1.3 Existing road geometrical characteristics
The total length of the section is 35.834km. The alignment is presented in Map 4.3
with the respective toponyms.
Sub-section
Udovo – Smokvica
Total
Length (km)
22.27
13.564
35.834
4.1.3.2 Cross section
The cross section as described in the Database of Road Corridor X, is 9.70m wide and
described and represented as follows:

Two traffic lanes, 3.50m wide each
Two shoulders, 1.00m wide each
Two verges, 0.35m wide each
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Figure 4.1: Typical cross section of existing M-1 road
Axios
Map 4.3: Alignment of existing E-75 road
Bendiness along the entire section under study is considered high, mainly along the
“gorge” section between Demir Kapija and Udovo.
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Source: Google Earth (2007 TerraMetrics)
Map 4.4: Landscape of surrounding area (direction from D. Kapija to Udovo)
Cross falls
Minimum super-elevation is 2.5% and maximum super-elevation in curve is 7%.
Curvature
Minimum horizontal curve radius is 350m.
4.1.3.4 Design speed
The design speed of the existing alignment is 80km/h from Demir Kapija to Udovo
and varies between 80 and 100km/h between Udovo and Smokvica.
Altitude
The level of the M-1 road from Gevgelija to Udovo before the construction of the
motorway sub-section Gevgelija – Smokvica varied between 52 and 80m above the
sea level, while the land type is flat and mountainous while moving to the northern
parts.
From Udovo to Demir Kapija, through a mountainous terrain, level varies between
80 and 122m above the sea level.
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Gradients
Gradients along the existing road do not exceed 2.2%.
4.1.3.6 Pavement
Pavement condition along the entire section from Smokvica to Demir Kapija is
considered medium. The last maintenance was performed in 1990-91 and included
total repavement of the road.
4.1.3.7 Structures
Bridges
The following table lists the existing bridges along the section Gevgelija – Demir
Kapija.
F.N.R.R.
Bridge
number
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
Total
Name
Vardar River
Iberliska River
Gorge
Kosaracha River
Lutkova River
Vodisir gorge
Gradeshka River
Mushtenica gorge
Gorge
Gorge
Arazliska River
Loop Udovo
Anska River
Marvinci River
Vardar River at Miletkovo village
Railway Skopje - Gevgelija
Road P-103
Local road
19
Number
of spans
3
1
1
2
5
9
10
7
5
3
12
1
3
3
1
5
3
3
1
Length
Description
163.32
7.60
8.40
16.60
101.40
187.60
209.20
153.50
101.20
36.00
252.40
15.78
33.98
24.40
8.38
220.10
31.40
33.05
29.60
1,633.91
Bridge
Bridge
Bridge
Bridge
Bridge
Bridge
Bridge
Bridge
Bridge
Bridge
Bridge
Underpass
Bridge
Overpass
Underpass
Bridge
Underpass
Overpass
Overpass
There are nineteen existing bridges and have total length of 1633.91m. Eleven of
them (F.N.R.R. numbers 117-127) are on the Demir Kapija – Udovo section, which
correspond to a length of 1,237m.
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4.1.3.8 Intersections
No at-grade intersections exist along the Demir Kapija – Udovo road. There is only
one multilevel intersection along this section, where the road crosses with railway
Corridor X.
Concerning the Udovo – Gevgelija section, before the motorway construction from
Smokvica to Gevgelija, there were three multilevel and one at-level intersections. The
two multilevel crossings were at the crossings of the M-1 road with the Skopje –
Thessaloniki railway line.
4.1.3.9 Traffic signs
As previously mentioned, the level of horizontal and vertical signing was reported to
the Technical Secretariat as not satisfactory (in 2001), due to the fact that it was
damaged and incomplete.
4.1.3.10 Lighting
Lighting along the Demir Kapija – Udovo section is considered satisfactory. Lighting
is not continuous but isolated at tunnels. Lighting along Udovo – Smokvica section is
not satisfactory.
4.1.3.11 Road facilities
On the old road from Gevgelija to Udovo there were six parking areas and two
service stations. No emergency telephones are installed.
On the sub-section from Udovo to Demir Kapija there are two service stations, no
emergency telephones, while seven parking areas exist.
4.1.3.12 Traffic counters and toll stations
Three traffic counters are installed along the road section between Demir Kapija and
the Greek border: Automatic counter 11/C is installed at Demir Kapija, Manual
counter 8-1/P at Udovo and Automatic counter 19/C at Gevgelija.
The closest toll booth is at Stobi (close to Gradsko at Demir Kapija northwards).
4.1.4 Existing road operational characteristics
4.1.4.1 Traffic flows
Available traffic data was derived from the Corridor X Database (only for the years
1998, 1999 and 2003), from the traffic data officially submitted by the Fund for
National and Regional Roads of F.Y.R. Macedonia and also from the Scetauroute
study (for the period 1989-2002 and the years 2005 and 2006).
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The following table presents traffic data for various years since 1990 and until the
year 2006. The traffic volumes peaked in 1990 (weighted average AADT was over
6,000 veh/day). However, the crisis in the former Yugoslavia saw a drastic reduction
with daily traffic falling to just 1,835 veh/day in 1994. As stability in the region
improves traffic volumes have started rising. In 2006 weighted traffic volumes was
recorded at 3,571 veh/day. It is worth noting that the 2006 traffic volume is only 59%
of the traffic volume that was recorded in 1990.
Year
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2005
2006
Annual Average Daily Traffic (veh/day)
D. Kapija–Udovo
Udovo–Gevgelija
Weighted traffic
4,644
5,036
4,851
6,300
5,856
6,066
5,357
5,128
5,236
2,858
2,400
2,617
2,779
2,846
2,814
1,496
2,139
1,835
1,647
2,280
1,981
2,142
2,825
2,502
2,315
3,021
2,687
1,922
3,387
2,694
1,869
4,121
3,056
2,754
3,334
3,060
2,300
3,265
2,808
2,119
3,412
2,800
2,671
2,916
2,800
3,596
3,548*
3,571
Source: Corridor X Technical Secretariat – Fund for National and Regional Roads
* Estimation
Traffic flows along the sections were reduced by 56% during the period 1990 – 1998
(70% on D. Kapija – Udovo and 42% on Udovo – Gevgelija). Increase of traffic was
observed after the year 2000 but remained at low levels with fluctuations, at about
50% less than the traffic in the year 1990.
The Graph 4.1 presents the annual traffic along Corridor X Main Axis in the F.Y.R. of
Macedonia in various years since 1989. It shows that traffic flows gradually increase
but irregularly, so that the extraction of a safe conclusion and a mean annual growth
factor is impossible.
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Annual Average Daily Traffic along Corridor X in F.Y.R.O.M. in the period
1989 – 2006
16000
14000
1989
AADT (veh/day)
12000
1990
10000
1998
8000
1999
6000
2002
2001
2005
4000
2006
2000
ic
a
og
or
od
lij
a
lij
a
-B
-G
ev
ge
vo
G
ev
ge
U
do
ap
i ja
-U
do
vo
ap
ij a
K
K
N
eg
ot
in
o
D
em
ir
o
ds
k
G
ra
-D
em
ir
-N
eg
G
ra
d
s-
el
e
V
ot
in
o
o
sk
es
-V
el
ec
Pe
tr
ov
no
v
ci
-
Pe
tr
ov
ec
i
di
no
vc
M
ila
di
-M
ila
ov
o
um
an
K
Ta
ba
no
v
ce
-K
um
an
ov
o
0
Section
Graph 4.1: Annual Average Daily Traffic along Corridor X in F.Y.R.O.M.
in the period 1989 – 2006
In any case, the trends of traffic along the sections of interest are anodic, as shown in
Graph 4.2. Only in 2006 the traffic recorded an increase by 27.5% compared to traffic
in 2005.
Annual Average Daily Traffic changes per sub-section in the period 1989 – 2006
7000
AADT (veh/day)
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2005 2006
Year
Demir Kapija - Udovo
Udovo - Gevgelija
Weighted traffic
Graph 4.2: Annual Average Daily Traffic changes per sub-section in the period 1989 – 2006
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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Annual Average Daily Traffic considered for the scope of the study in the base year
2006 per section is:

3,596 veh/day on the section Demir Kapija – Udovo
3,548 veh/day on the section Udovo – Smokvica
Weighted Annual Average Daily Traffic along the entire section under study in 2006
is 3,571 veh/day.
4.1.4.2 Traffic flows characteristics
Traffic composition
Annual average daily traffic can be analysed in vehicle categories and reduced to
passenger car units (PCUs). From the analysis of the year 2001, for which traffic
separation is made to light and heavy vehicles, it is concluded that heavy traffic was
around 30%. In the Scetauroute feasibility study, which included traffic counts that
were used in traffic projections, the following shares of vehicles were registered for
year 1998:
Road
section
Demir
Kapija –
Udovo
(Prdejci)
Smokvica –
Gevgelija
Passenger
cars
Buses
Vans/
pickups
Light
trucks
Medium
trucks
Heavy
trucks
Articulated
trucks
58%
4%
7%
4%
4%
6%
17%
67%
4%
7%
4%
5%
7%
5%
Traffic composition has changed since 1998. If one studies the available F.N.R.R.
traffic statistics for 2005 and 2006, presented in the following tables, the traffic
composition along the Demir Kapija – Udovo road is more or less the same as the
traffic composition along the Udovo – Gevgelija road.
Section
Demir Kapija
– Udovo
Udovo –
Gevgelija
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
A
Motorcycles
27
1.01%
18
0.62%
B
Cars and light
loaded vehicles
2,003
74.99%
2,332
79.97%
C
Heavy loaded
vehicles
588
22.01%
467
16.02%
D
Buses
53
1.98%
99
3.40%
Total
2,671
100.00%
2,916
100.00%
33
More specifically, traffic composition along Demir Kapija – Udovo section in the year
2006 was recorded as follows:
A
Section
Demir Kapija
– Udovo
Motorcycles
34
0.95%
B
Cars and light
loaded vehicles
2,877
80.01%
C
Heavy loaded
vehicles
611
16.99%
D
Buses
74
2.06%
Total
3,596
100.00%
Therefore, along Demir Kapija – Udovo section the share of light vehicles is 81%, the
percentage of buses is 2% and of heavy loaded vehicles 17%. For the section Udovo –
Smokvica the shares are assumed to be the same with the northern road section,
confirmed by the available statistics for 2005, considering also that higher volumes of
local trips emerge after the village Prdejci, 3km south of Smokvica.
Summarizing, and incorporating also the percentages registered in the year 1998, the
following shares per type of vehicle are extracted and used in the present study:

Motorcycles: 1%
Passenger cars: 69%
Vans and pickups: 7%
Buses: 2%
Light trucks: 4%
Medium trucks: 4%
Heavy trucks: 6%
Articulated trucks: 7%
Traffic in private car units in the base year (2006) for traffic projection is estimated at
4,928 PCUs/day.
International traffic
International traffic has been drastically reduced since 1990. Annual average daily
traffic of vehicles with foreign registration plates in 1990 at Nis toll booth on
Corridor X in Serbia was 4,065 veh/day, while in 2001 it was 916 veh/day (including
vehicles from ex Yugoslavian countries that are now considered as international
traffic). These figures highlight the significant drop of international traffic after the
crisis in former Yugoslavia. They also indicate the growth potential of international
trips as the political stability of the region steadily improves.
In the previous feasibility study by Scetauroute, it is estimated that international
traffic in 1998 represented 20% of the AADT along the section Demir Kapija –
Gevgelija.
In order to approach the share of international traffic it was considered useful to
exploit available statistics at the cross border of Bogorodica that were officially
submitted to the Technical Secretariat of Corridor X by the authorities of F.Y.R. of
Macedonia in 2003.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
34
Year
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Cars
Foreign
135,010
116,122
72,729
132,682
82,047
140,849
73.01%
Domestic
129,676
46,786
72,527
157,017
103,520
101,091
53.22%
Buses
Foreign
12,270
10,419
4,872
18,954
9,438
9,160
4.75%
Domestic
1,620
309
973
22,431
976
952
0.50%
Trucks
Subtotals
Foreign Domestic
40,452
81,521
35,666
83,237
41,815
87,660
37,909
44,862
39,528
78,361
42,919
87,914
22.25%
46.28%
Annual average 2002
Total
Foreign
187,732
162,207
119,416
189,545
131,013
192,928
Domestic
212,817
130,332
161,160
224,310
182,857
189,957
400,549
292,539
280,576
413,855
313,870
382,885
529
520
1,049
In 2002, 382,885 vehicles crossed the borders of F.Y.R. of Macedonia with Greece,
which approximates 1,049 vehicles per day in both directions. About half of them
(529 veh/day) are vehicles with foreign registration plates and the composition of
this traffic flows is 73% passenger cars, 4.75% buses and 22.25%. These shares are
similar to the composition of AADT on the section under study mentioned in the
previous paragraphs.
The 529 veh/day represent the 18.9% of the AADT of the year 2002, which
approximates the 20% estimated by Scetauroute for the year 1998.
Therefore, for the scope of this study, it is assumed that 20% of the traffic is
international, which for 2006 is estimated at 714 veh/day (1,100 PCUs/day) in both
directions.
Annual entrances per vehicle category at Bogorodica road cross
border station
90,000
80,000
70,000
1997
60,000
1998
50,000
40,000
1999
30,000
2001
20,000
2002
2000
10,000
0
Foreign
Private
Cars
Domestic
Private
Cars
Foreign
Buses
Domestic
Buses
Foreign
Trucks
Domestic
Trucks
Graph 4.3: Annual entrances per vehicle category at Bogorodica road cross border station in
the period 1997 – 2002
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
35
Annual exits per vehicle category at Bogorodica road cross border
station
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
1997
50,000
40,000
1999
30,000
20,000
2001
1998
2000
2002
10,000
0
Foreign
Private
Cars
Domestic
Private
Cars
Foreign
Buses
Domestic
Buses
Foreign
Trucks
Domestic
Trucks
Graph 4.4: Annual exits per vehicle category at Bogorodica road cross border station in the
period 1997 – 2002
Traffic irregularities
Seasonality
From data collected in 2001 at the (old) counter points 12/A at Demir Kapija and
13/A at Gevgelija, as expected, the average monthly traffic flows are higher during
the months of the vernal period. Peak month at Demir Kapija – Udovo was July
(2,680 veh/ day) and at Udovo – Gevgelija (3,326 veh/day).
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
D. Kapija - Udovo
Average
monthly daily
traffic
(veh/ day)
1,920
2,095
2,011
2,093
2,173
2,378
2,680
2,633
2,539
2,488
2,296
2,282
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
Comparison to
Annual Average
Daily Traffic
83.48%
91.09%
87.43%
91.00%
94.48%
103.39%
116.52%
114.48%
110.39%
108.17%
99.83%
99.22%
Udovo - Gevgelija
Average
monthly daily
traffic
(veh/ day)
2,562
2,948
2,855
3,023
3,795
3,175
3,336
3,468
3,684
3,509
3,396
3,444
Comparison to
Annual Average
Daily Traffic
78.44%
90.26%
87.41%
92.55%
116.19%
97.21%
102.14%
106.18%
112.79%
107.43%
103.97%
105.44%
36
Summer average daily traffic (SADT) in 2001 was 2,564 veh/day (11% higher than
AADT) on Demir Kapija – Udovo and 3,326 veh/day on Udovo – Gevgelija (2%
higher than AADT), while winter average daily traffic (WADT) was 2,077 veh/day
and 2,952 veh/day, respectively, which correspond to 90% of the AADT.
It should be mentioned at this point that at Udovo – Gevgelija section the SADT in
1989 was 8,153 veh/day, 62% higher than AADT, while WADT was 3,573 veh/day
(71% of AADT).
Traffic seasonality in 2001 is also presented in the following graph.
Monthly Average Daily Traffic in 2001
4000
3500
Veh/day
3000
2500
D. Kapija - Udovo MADT
D. Kapija - Udovo AADT
2000
Udovo - Gevgelija MADT
1500
Udovo - Gevgelija AADT
1000
500
Ja
nu
Fe ary
br
ua
r
M y
ar
ch
A
pr
il
M
ay
Ju
ne
Ju
A ly
Se ugu
pt st
em
b
O er
ct
N ob
ov e r
em
D
ec ber
em
be
r
0
Month
Graph 4.5: Monthly Average Daily Traffic in 2001
Peak days and hours
Information concerning the peak days and hours are available for the period 1999 –
2002 (Source: F.N.R.R.).
On the section from Demir Kapija to Udovo the maximum daily traffic load was
recorded on the working day of 31/7/2000 with 6,023 vehicles (218% of AADT of
year 2000). In the following years traffic on peak days was much closer to the annual
average daily traffic.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
37
Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
Section:
Maximum working day
Maximum non-working day
Average day
Maximum working day
Average day
Maximum working day
Average day
Maximum working day
Average day
Date
6/7/1999
24/7/1999
22/10/1999
31/7/2000
29/7/2000
23/5/2000
1/8/2001
28/7/2001
26/2/2001
30/8/2002
16/11/2002
6/12/2002
Day
traffic
3,019
2,917
1,867
6,023
5,319
2,670
3,638
3,168
2,302
3,408
3,491
2,127
Morning
Peak hour
8h and 12h
12h
11h
8h
9h
12h
9h
6h
12h
Afternoon
peak hour
15h and 18h
18h and 20h
16h and 21h
18-20h
16h and 22h
20h
17h and 20h
20h
13h and 19h
12-14h
-
On the road from Udovo to Gevgelija the maximum daily traffic load was recorded
on the working day of 13/4/1999 with 12,207 vehicles (three times higher than
AADT of year 1999). In the following years traffic on peak days was close to half of
this value.
Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
Section:
Udovo – Gevgelija
Date
Day
traffic
Morning
Peak hour
Maximum working day
13/4/1999
12,207
9h
Average day
Maximum working day
11/4/1999
11/9/1999
2/2/2000
9,588
4,093
5,096
11h
9h
10-11h
23/2/2000
3,912
-
Average day
Maximum working day
Average day
15/5/2000
20/9/2001
19/5/2001
17/9/2001
3,335
6,801
6,103
3,263
Maximum working day
27/2/2002
6,779
Average day
29/9/2002
12/2/2002
7,451
3,412
8h
12h
4-6h and 1115h
9h
8h
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
Afternoon
peak hour
13h, 16h and
20h
19h
16h and 21h
15-16h and 2122h
16h and 22h
14h and 19h
14h and 19h
13h
19h
13h
17h and 22h
38
4.1.4.3 Accidents
Data for accidents is not available on road section basis. From the Database of the
Technical Secretariat of Corridor X the only information available is on country basis,
for the years 1995 – 1998.
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
Accidents
2,436
2,505
2,293
2,184
Deaths
179
154
170
187
Injuries
3,421
3,397
3,199
3,019
The persons killed in road accidents in F.Y.R. of Macedonia were 216 in 1999 and 162
in 2000 (Eurostat). Eight persons were killed in road accidents per 100,000 inhabitants
in 2000, while in 1999 the same index was eleven, in 1997 and 1998 nine, and finally
in 1997 eight.
From the above statistics, the mean annual number of accidents is 2,355, of injuries
3,259 and deaths in road accidents 178.
Road accidents in F.Y.R. of Macedonia
2000
1999
1998
Injuries
Deaths
Road accidents
1997
1996
1995
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Year
Graph 4.6: Road accidents in F.Y.R. of Macedonia in the period 1995 – 2000
Another statistic concerning accidents is the number of accidents per 1,000 vehicles
in 1999, reported by the Ministry of Transport and Communications of the F.Y.R. of
Macedonia: 6.9 accidents, 0.6 deaths and 9.3 injuries per 1,000 vehicles.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
39
Accidents along the existing road under study were expected from the responsible
Ministry of Interior of the F.Y.R. of Macedonia. Up to the date of completion of the
current study, the submission of the required data is still pending.
4.2
Alternatives of infrastructure development (road physical and operational
characteristics including toll stations)
The alternatives of infrastructure development are formulated in such a way that the
qualification of the most suitable, in economic and technical terms, solution is made
possible.
The first alternative (Alternative A) is the lowest cost solution, where the entire
section is upgraded in order to increase the road safety and facilitate the traffic of
both private cars and commercial vehicles. Rehabilitation according to the authorities
is required every 15 years, and thus the upgrade should be performed immediately.
Therefore, for the scope of the study upgrade is considered to take place in the
period 2008 -2009 and rehabilitation in 2023.
The second and the third alternatives (Alternatives B and C) examine the motorway
construction with narrower cross-section widths compared to those proposed by the
existing detail and preliminary designs of the two alignments under study, in order
to examine more economic solutions, while still serving the existing and forecasted
traffic with an acceptable level of service.
Finally, the motorway construction alternatives as proposed by the existing designs
are examined (Alternative D).
The alternatives of infrastructure development are summarised in the following
table:
Alternative
Description
Year of
realisation
A (“Do
minimum”)
Upgrade of the existing road
2008 – 2009
Motorway construction with cross section width of
22.60m (traffic lanes 3.25m wide) along the entire
section
section
Alignment 1
- 27.60m (traffic lanes 3.75m wide) at the “easy” sections
- 26.40m (traffic lanes 3.50m wide) at the “gorge” section
2008 – 2013
(Alignment 1)
B
C
D
Or
2008 – 2010
(Alignment 2)
Alignment 2
section
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
40
4.2.1
Alternative A: Do minimum
The “Do minimum” alternative is the lower cost alternative of upgrading of the
existing M-1 road that could include various minor interventions for the better
utilisation of the existing infrastructure and the facilitation of traffic. Minor
interventions could be the formulation of climbing lanes and parking lots at given
spots along the hilly and difficult parts of the road (along the “gorge” section), in
order to give more passing opportunities to passenger cars, as the percentage of
heavier vehicles is considered high (19%).
Climbing lanes increase the level of service of the road, and also contributes to
accidents reduction, travel time and vehicle costs savings. Also, for the increase of
road safety, the provision of emergency escape ramps and arrester beds could be
examined at long downhill sections or other cases of increased possibility of a vehicle
driver losing control.
4.2.2
Motorway construction (Alternatives B, C, D)
Alternatives B, C and D are variants of motorway construction which differ in the
formulated typical cross-section and in the design speed of a future motorway, in
order to examine the best techno-economic alternative.
The following elements of the analysis are considered to remain constant for all
motorway cross-section widths within each alignment (Alternatives B, C, D):

Traffic projections (vary only in different alignments).
The median type, which is formulated with metal barriers. The case of
establishment of New Jersey median is not examined.
The omission of the emergency lanes at bridges longer than 50m and tunnels.
The considered percentage of accidents reduction after the motorway
construction.
The construction costs are estimated on the basis of the estimation performed by the
F.N.R.R. for the wider cross sections (27.6m and 26.4m in the case of Alignment 1 and
28.2m in the case of Alignment 2).
4.2.2.1 General description – Design speeds and typical cross-sections
Alternative B: Motorway construction with a cross-section of 22.60m for design
speed of 90-110km/h
Alternative B is the alternative of motorway construction with two lanes per
direction, separated by a median with guardrails, for design speed of 90-110km/h:
Traffic lanes:
Central reserve:
Emergency lanes:
Marginal strips towards central reserve:
Marginal strips towards emergency lanes:
Shoulders:
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
4 (2 per direction), each 3.25m wide
2.00m wide
41
9.30
7.30
0.50 2.00 0.50
1.00
1.00
Figure 4.2: Alternative B typical motorway cross section (Vd= 90-110km/h)
More specifically, for Alignment 1 the design speed will be between 80 and 100km/h
for the subsection Demir Kapija – Udovo, while for the remaining section between
Udovo and Smokvica will be 110km/h. For Alignment 2 the design speed will be
110km/h along the entire section.
Reduction of the cross section is also foreseen at tunnels and bridges longer than
50m. The reduction of the cross section at tunnels and bridges is achieved through
the removal of the emergency lane. The width of tunnel is 8.7m with two traffic lanes
of 3.25m each, two verges of 0.35m each and two service footpaths of 0.75m each.
Alternative C:
Motorway construction with a cross-section of 24.60m for design
speed of 90-110km/h
Alternative C foresees the motorway construction with two lanes per direction,
separated by a median with guardrails, for design speed of 90-110km/h, with cross
section of 24.60m, as follows:
Traffic lanes:
Central reserve:
Emergency lanes:
Shoulders:
3.00m wide
9.80
7.80
0.30
1.00
2.00
0.50 3.00 0.50
3.50
3.50
0.30
3.50
3.50
1.00
2.00
Figure 4.3: Alternative C typical motorway cross section in the case of Alignment 2 and of
section from Udovo to Smokvica of Alignment 1 (Vd= 90-110km/h)
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
42
In the case of Alignment 1 the design speed will be between 80 and 100km/h along
the motorway between Demir Kapija and Udovo, while for the rest of the motorway
between Udovo and Smokvica will be 110km/h. For Alignment 2 the design speed
will be 110km/h along the entire section.
Additionally, as in the case of Alternative B, the reduction of the cross section is also
foreseen at tunnels and bridges longer than 50m. This reduction is achieved through
the removal of the emergency lane. The width of tunnel is 9.2m with two traffic lanes
of 3.50m each, two verges of 0.35m each and two service footpaths of 0.75m each.
Alternative D
Alignment 1
Motorway construction for design speed of 120km/h
speed of 120km/h and 26.40m for design speed of 80-100km/h
This alternative examines the case of the cross sections as proposed by the detailed
design. The following table and Figures 4.4 and 4.5 illustrate the cross-section.
Traffic lanes: 4 (2 per direction), each 3.75m/ 3.50m
wide
Central reserve: 4.00m wide
Emergency lanes: 2 (1 per direction), each 2.50m wide
Marginal strips towards central reserve: 2 (1 per direction), each 0.50m/ 0.35m
wide
Marginal strips towards emergency lanes: 2 (1 per direction), each 0.35m/ 0.30m
wide
Shoulders: 2 (1 per direction), each 1.00m wide
10.80
8.30
0.30
1.00
2.50
0.50 4.00 0.50
3.75
3.75
0.30
3.75
3.75
1.00
2.50
Figure 4.4: Alignment 1 – Alternative D typical cross section of the motorway section from
Udovo to Smokvica (Vd= 120km/h)
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
43
10.20
7.70
0.35
1.00
2.50
0.35 4.00 0.35
3.50
3.50
0.35
3.50
3.50
1.00
2.50
Demir Kapija to Udovo (Vd= 80-100km/h)
It should be mentioned that the central reserve is normally 4m but is frequently
narrower and reduced to barely 3m when necessary.
The width of tunnel is 9.2m with two traffic lanes of 3.50m each, two verges of 0.35m
each and two service footpaths of 0.75m each.
Alignment 2
speed of 120km/h
This alternative examines the case of the cross sections as proposed by the
preliminary design. The following table and Figure 4.6 illustrate the cross-section of
this alternative:
Traffic lanes:
Central reserve:
Emergency lanes:
Shoulders:
3.50m wide
2 (1 per direction), each 0.50m
2 (1 per direction), each 1.50m wide in
cut and 2.00m in fill
10.85
8.35
0.35
1.50
2.50
0.50 3.50 0.50
3.75
3.75
0.35
3.75
3.75
1.50
2.50
Udovo to Smokvica (Vd= 120km/h)
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
44
The width of tunnel is 9.7m with two traffic lanes of 3.75m each, two verges of 0.35m
each and two service footpaths of 0.75m each.
The total length of the motorway section in the case of Alignment 1 is 32.15km, while
for Alignment 2 is 28.05km.
In the case of Alignment 1, the foreseen motorway can be divided into two
subsections: Between Demir Kapija and Udovo (19.9km) and between Udovo and
Smokvica (12.15km).
Alignment 1 adopts the alignment of the existing M-1 road for most sectors. Between
Demir Kapija and Udovo the new carriageway would be on the left (east) bank of the
Vardar River, following as much as possible the existing M-1 road. The percentage of
the second carriageway following the existing M-1 alignment is 80% (F.N.R.R.).
Alignment 2 foresees the construction of a completely new motorway section
between Demir Kapija and Smokvica, which follows the west bank of the Vadrar
River, bypassing Udovo. The total length of this alignment is 28.05km.
The position of the aforementioned alignments is roughly presented in the following
map:
Legend
Alignment 1
Alignment 2
Map 4.5: Alternative motorway Alignments 1 and 2
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
45
Curvature
In Alignment 1 the minimum horizontal curve radius for design speed of 120km/h is
750m and for design speed of 100km/h is 450m. For design speed of 80km/h the
minimum radius is 250m.
In Alignment 2 the minimum curve used is 900m, which actually corresponds to a
design speed of 130km/h.
Vertical alignment along sub-sections with design speed of 120km/h foresees
minimum radii of 16,000m in convex curves and bigger than 11,266m (2/3 of convex
radius) in concave curves.
Along sub-sections with design speed of 100km/h minimum vertical radii are
7,600m in both convex and concave curves. Finally, for the design speed of 80km/h
the minimum radii is 3,025m.
Altitude
The altitude of the motorway of Alignment 1 from Demir Kapija to Gevgelija lies
between 54 and 112m.
In the case of Alignment 2 the motorway altitude lies between 75 and 350m. Next to
the river and for 8km the altitude is between 110 – 140m, in the mountains and for
15km altitude reaches 350m and then drops to 150m, and finally, in the plain, for the
rest of its length (5km), is gradually reduced to 75m, where it is connected to the
already constructed motorway between Gevgelija and Smokvica.
Gradients
Gradients along the entire section under study are reserved lower than 5% for all
design speeds.
Especially in the case of Alignment 2, the maximum longitudinal slope is 4.0% with
an exception of a sector of 1,400m where it reaches 4.6%, due to the mountainous
landscape. The maximum slope in the tunnels was kept below 2.5%.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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46
4.2.2.5 Pavement
The pavement structure used on roads in the F.Y.R. of Macedonia is the following:
For new carriageways:
- wearing course (polymerised asphalt)
- bearing course (3-4% bitumen)
- blanket course
- stabilised road base in cut
- stabilised road base in fill
5
12-14
25-35
30-40
60
cm
cm
cm
cm
cm
For connecting roads at interchanges:
- wearing course (polymerised asphalt)
- blanket course
4 cm
8-10 cm
25-35 cm
For local roads:
- blanket course
7 cm
25-35 cm
4.2.2.6 Structures
Bridges
Alignment 1
The bridges foreseen in Alignment 1 are summarised in the following table, prepared
by the F.N.R.R.:
Bridge on River Vardar
Bridge on Kkosareska River
Bridge on Lutkova River
Bridge on Vodosir River
Bridge on Gradeska River
Bridge on Mustenica River
Bridge on Arazliska River
Subtotal
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
Length (m)
124
15
101
169
202
136
237
983
Udovo – Smokvica
Underpass 1132+757
Underpass 1132+337
Overpass 1133+484
Overpass 1134+420
Overpass 1138+236
Bridge on Anska River
Overpass 1140+540
Underpass 1141+460
Bridge on Vardar River
Underpass 1142+760
Subtotal
Total
Length (m)
8.7
13
46
46
46
45.5
46.0
8.7
504
8.7
773
1,756
47
Alignment 2
The bridges foreseen in Alignment 2 are summarised in the following table, prepared
by E.O.A.E.:
Name
S1-Bosava
S2-Rail
S3
S4
S5
S6-Javorica
S7
S8
S9-Petruska
Starting km point
900
1400
3260
5000
7100
8800
10100
14300
21275
Ending km point
1000
1600
3440
5040
7200
9140
10400
14700
21425
Total
Length (m)
100
200
180
40
100
340
300
400
150
1,810
Tunnels
Alignment 1
The foreseen tunnels concern only the section between Demir Kapija and Udovo:
Three of them are single-tube and the other two are double-tube tunnels. Their
location and lengths are listed in the following table:
Tunnel
T1 and T2
T3
T4
T7
Location
Demir Kapija
Kisalder
Ilovski
Kamen
Starting km point
1112+934 – 1114+428
1117+336 – 1117+540
1122+822 – 1123+326
1128+269 – 1128+892
Total
Length (m)
1,494
204
504
623
2,825m
Alignment 2
The foreseen tunnels are two:
Tunnel
T1
T2
Starting km point
1830
8180
Ending km point
3080
8580
Total
Length (m)
1,250
400
1,650m
4.2.2.7 Traffic interchanges
The construction and operation of interchanges is foreseen in order to connect the
future motorway with the rest of the road network, with regional and municipal
centres. The foreseen interchanges in the case of Alignment 1 are at Udovo and at
Smokvica. As already mentioned, in the case of Alignment 2 only one interchange is
foreseen, however its exact position has not yet been defined; potential places for
construction of interchange are Smokvica and Miletkovo.
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4.2.2.8
Environmental protection equipment
Costs for the environmental impact mitigation measures are currently being
estimated for each of the two examined alignments of the project, therefore they
are not included in the costs of the projects.
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5.
5.1
5.1.1
5.1.1.1
TRAFFIC FORECASTS
Presentation of the tool for traffic forecasts
Methodology of the development of the forecasting tool
Data collection – Construction of the base year database
The construction of the base year Database has been achieved through extensive
questionnaire based-surveys followed by on-site visits of expertise at the network in
the countries of Corridor X (Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Serbia, Bulgaria,
F.Y.R.O.M. and Greece). The necessary information, collected via the questionnaires
and via various National and International Organizations (National Statistic Services,
Eurostat, World Bank, United Nations, World Trade Organization, World Tourism
Organization, Organization for the Economic Cooperation and Development etc.)
concerns physical and operational characteristics of the network (e.g. traffic flows,
operational speed, road category, duration of trips, delays at cross-borders etc.) and
various demand parameters (e.g., socioeconomic characteristics, population, Gross
Domestic Product, imports and exports of goods, tourism etc.).
5.1.1.2 Methodological issues and constraints
Objectively, it is difficult to obtain reliable estimations of the future transport
demand and the respective realistic volumes’ assignment on the transport network
because of the highly uncertainty of the socioeconomic status of the countries
composing the area of Corridor X. In the mean time the representation of the current
status is insufficient, due to the lack of data, their incompatibility from country to
country and from period to period, because of the new borders and the creation of
new independent states after 1990 in the area of the Western Balkans (former
Yugoslavia).
Due to the political changes, the technical structures and administration systems also
collapsed, and among those, the organisations of systematic data collection and
processing of transport demand and supply. Obviously, the confusion produced was
enjoined by the border changes, given the fact that substantial part of relative data is
referred at certain «screenline stations», which are the countries’ various border
stations. Many of them did not exist before 1990 but they were created afterwards
and not simultaneously. Far from the partial data reliability, comparability issues
raise from year to year and also from independent state (pre-existing or new) to
independent state. The reliability problem does not concern only the transport data,
but also demographic data, macroeconomic indicators, industrial production and
external trade.
5.1.1.3 Adopted methodology and assumptions for the scenarios’ development
The traffic forecasting approach of the Technical Secretariat of Corridor X is based on
best practices (TIRS and REBIS/ approved by the EC and the WB/EIB), which were
also based on the TINA and NEA study.
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In the Corridor X traffic forecasting, a marginal expression of generalized time was
used, which was extracted by real data and comprises trip durations and delays for
various reasons, of which (and mainly) the delays at border crossings.
The reference network is Corridor X, i.e. the main axis and its four branches. It is
composed by existing infrastructures, with reduced operability due to lack of
maintenance, investments and also desolation or war disasters. Corridor X is part of
a greater grid, which also comprises Corridors IV, V, VII and VIII.
The network refers to land transport, with respect to rail and road transport,
passenger and freight transport and, finally, local (domestic) and international
transport. The primary discrimination is based on the mean travel – transport
distance, where, according to TIRS, the line between local and long distance trips is
100km, while the biggest part of international inland transport does not exceed
400km.
Additionally, the increase rate of local mobility, which mainly depends on the
private car ownership indicator, is significantly higher than the increase rate of
international mobility in the area.
The reference network is inscribed in an area separated in zones, for the needs of trip
generation and spatial distribution. The available, from national and international
organisations, demographic and macroeconomic information, usually refer at
country level and not to smaller geographic – administrative divisions. This is the
reason why each Corridor X’s country consists a zone.
Given that the current decade is a commutative period, it was intended that the
scenarios and mainly their quantitative projections to have as target year the year
2015.
The country grouping was combined to the perspective of accession of those
countries to the E.U. and the accession time for each one, which of course is not
absolutely defined and for some countries is absolutely unknown. The accession
perspectives obviously affect the scenarios definition because the external trade, and
therefore the freight transport, in relation to the accession, tends to liberization and
the same happens with the free movement of persons. At the same time, the
enlargement of the E.U. with these countries affects the heading to European
integration in global level (globalisation) but to some extend diverts from it.
5.1.2
The scenarios
Three scenarios of development were formulated: the basic-medium (realistic) and
two scenarios of low and high development, namely the pessimistic and optimistic
scenario, respectively. The scenarios’ definition ends up with the application of
annual change rates on variables affecting directly the passenger and goods flows.
The annual change rates of the socioeconomic, demographic and other (arrivals of
visitors/ tourists at borders) characteristics used, had been extracted from relevant
studies carried out by the OECD, the World Bank and other international
organizations.
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Annual growth rates of various demand parameters per zone and scenario
Zone
Albania
Bulgaria
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Greece
France
Italy
Austria
Baltic States
Spain – Portugal
Germany, Belgium,
Luxemburg, Holland
United Kingdom –
Ireland
Scandinavia
Switzerland
Turkey
Serbia/ Montenegro
Bosnia/ Herzegovina
Croatia
F.Y.R.O.M.
Russia and former
Russian States
Low
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
Med
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
High
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
Gross Domestic
Product
%
Low Med High
5.00 6.50 8.00
3.00 4.00 5.00
3.00 4.00 5.00
3.00 4.00 5.00
3.00 4.00 5.00
3.00 4.00 5.00
3.00 4.00 5.00
3.00 4.00 5.00
2.00 2.00 2.00
2.00 2.00 2.00
2.00 2.00 2.00
2.00 2.00 2.00
3.00 4.00 5.00
2.00 2.00 2.00
Low
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
2.50
1.25
Med
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
5.00
2.50
High
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
3.75
3.75
3.75
3.75
7.50
3.75
Arrivals at
borders
%
All scenarios
8.00
5.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.25
2.50
3.75
1.00
0.30
0.30
0.30
2.00 2.00
2.00
1.25
2.50
3.75
1.00
0.30
0.30
0.30
2.00 2.00
2.00
1.25
1.25
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
2.50
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.00
3.75
3.75
750
7.50
7.50
7.50
7.50
1.00
1.00
8.00
5.00
5.00
4.00
5.00
0.30
0.30
1.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.30
0.30
1.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.30
0.30
1.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
2.00
3.00
3.50
3.50
4.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
4.00
4.30
4.40
4.40
3.70
2.00
2.00
5.00
6.00
5.50
5.00
5.00
1.25
2.50
3.75
4.00
0.30
0.30
0.30
3.50 3.50
3.50
International Trade
%
Population
%
Additionally to the basic socioeconomic variables, on the various target years and
scenarios, reduction coefficients are used to simulate the running times caused
mainly by the development of the installations and procedures at cross borders,
representing the smoothing out of the bilateral relations between the Balkan
countries (and therefore the countries participating in Corridor X).
5.1.3 Estimation of the passenger and freight flows
5.1.3.1 Estimation of the international passenger and freight flows on Corridor X
Given the different development and the different values of the change parameters
of domestic and international flows, the international flows are distinguished from
the total traffic. In such a way, the four stages of the classic procedure of transport
planning concern the international transport, which do not experience the limitation
of data heterogeneity for the areas and zones, like domestic flows.
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Additionally, it should be mentioned that the models used concern only the road
international transport, separately for passenger and freight, taking into account the
existing modal split (share of international transport by road 78%). The estimation of
the domestic transport was produced by the use of growth factors.
Passenger transport
For the estimation of the generation of passenger transport an exponential equation
was produced by linear regression. In this equation the independent variable is the
GDP and the dependent variable is the number of trips per person per year.
The journeys per person per year, which are used for the creation of the equation,
were obtained by pilot studies of Eurostat and DG TREN, where the passengers
travelling various distances using all modes and their behaviour are examined.
Estimation of road long distance trips per year
Country
F.Y.R.O.M.
Albania
Bosnia/
Herzegovina
Romania
Bulgaria
Serbia
&
Montenegro
Croatia
Hungary
Slovenia
Slovakia
Turkey
Greece
Austria
1,089,238,78
1,631,768,72
%
persons
travelling
long
distance
7.024
6.743
Road
long
distance
trips/
year
76,504
110,028
0.78
1,605,693,19
6.515
104,614
16,706,277,75
6,775,542,91
0.78
0.78
13,030,896,64
5,284,923,47
7.203
7.473
938,551
394,950
10,645,200
5,932,656,02
0.78
4,627,471,70
6.617
306,181
4,381,400
10,005,300
1,990,100
5,402,500
65,784,000
10,565,000
8,121,000
3,465,064,44
13,991,889,98
4,193,550,76
7,044,341,93
52,548,658,53
21,953,126,64
41,964,172,61
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.78
2,702,750,26
10,913,674,18
3,270,969,59
5,494,586,70
40,987,953,65
17,123,438,78
32,732,054,64
7.346
9.245
11.460
8.950
7.371
11.368
21.023
198,556
1,008,986
374,854
491,749
3,021,332
1,946,673
6,881,265
GDP/
capita
(2000)
Trips/
person/
year
Trips/ year
%
road
trips
Population
Road trips/
year
4,400
3,000
0.69
0.60
2,031,100
3,500,000
1,396,459,97
2,092,011,18
0.78
0.78
1,700
0.52
3,922,205
2,058,581,01
5,200
6,300
0.74
0.83
22,430,500
8,149,500
2,300
0.56
5,800
11,500
15,600
10,800
5,900
15,460
24,570
0.79
1.40
2.11
1.30
0.80
2.08
5.17
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The attractions are calculated in respect to the arrivals of visitors at the borders of
each zone - country. The necessary data were obtained by Eurostat and the World
Tourism Organization.
Arrivals of visitors at borders (in thousands)
Country
Albania
Croatia
F.Y.R.O.M.
Serbia/ Montenegro
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Moldavia
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Turkey
1994
340
18,441
3,189
101,140
1,900
39,836
1,944
2,369
1995
304
16,100
2,628
5,284
98,061
2,110
39,240
1,633
2,055
74,253
5,898
21,868
3,339
6,671
82,244
5,445
27,301
3,184
7,727
1996
288
18,085
2,156
6,811
109,405
2,435
39,833
1,750
3,499
1,066
87,439
5,205
33,113
3,594
8,537
1997
119
22,624
2,078
152
7,543
107,884
2,618
37,315
1,842
3,702
1,125
87,817
5,149
31,742
3,828
9,713
1998
184
24,379
1,848
239
5,240
102,844
2,909
33,624
1,788
4,287
1,198
88,592
4,831
32,735
3,297
9,431
1999
371
28,211
2,223
351
5,056
100,832
3,181
28,803
1,738
4,454
1,229
89,118
5,224
30,757
3,000
7,487
2000
317
35,961
2,865
448
4,922
104,247
3,310
31,141
1,882
4,092
1,240
84,515
5,264
28,769
3,179
10,428
The Eurostat data concern total arrivals at borders, e.g. entrances in the country, so
they include arrivals by all modes of transport. For this reason, the arrivals at road
cross border stations were obtained from the World Tourism Organization, where
the arrivals at the borders are discriminated per mode according to the national
statistic services.
Arrivals of tourists at borders (in thousands)
Country
Albania
Croatia
F.Y.R.O.M.
Serbia/ Montenegro
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Moldavia
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Turkey
1996
2,914
136
2,795
4,558
665
20,674
556
832
1,054
4,088
762
951
832
7,888
1997
4,178
121
2,980
4,976
730
17,248
626
1,012
1,111
3,923
833
814
974
9,063
1998
4,499
157
2,667
5,482
825
2,871
567
1,416
1,182
3,562
810
896
977
8,638
1999
354
3,805
181
2,491
5,610
950
2,789
489
1,422
1,214
3,178
795
975
884
6,893
2000
5,832
224
2,785
4,666
1,200
452
1,083
1,216
3,122
867
1,053
1,090
9,586
Finally, from these data the arrivals of the visitors of the same date were identified,
which mainly consist of transit visitors, in order to avoid overestimation of
international transport. For the countries grouped to a zone, the trips between them
were estimated and they were abstracted. Also, for the zones bordering with
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countries out of the study area (Turkey, Russia – former socialistic republics) the
passenger flows were adjusted to the observed traffic volumes at borders within the
study area.
Freight transport
The produced freight flows were considered, based on the TIRS experience, by the
total tonnage of the transported goods by road. The calculation was made possible
under the assumption that the goods transported by road are at a high percentage
commodities of categories 6 (construction and raw materials and minerals) and 9
(machinery, manufactured products, transport equipment etc.) of NSTR
(Nomenclature uniforme des marchandises pour les Statistiques de Transport,
Révisée e.g. Nomenclature of statistical data in use by Ε.U. since 1st January 1967).
Those categories are directly related to the GDP but could not be reliably distributed
between the zones of the study area with GDP criteria, not with the GDP of the
destination country but also not with the GDP of the origin country. Due to the
existence of a complete origin–destination matrix of road transport in tonnage
between E.U. countries and countries of the PHARE zone, it was preferred to extend
and complete this O-D with data for the extra zones of the study area, so that the
calibration and trip distribution preserve the existing bilateral trade relations.
Therefore, the danger of producing trade flows that do not correspond to reality, and
could came up if the GDP was used for the distribution, was avoided.
As for the case of passenger transport, for the countries grouped to a zone, the trips
between them were estimated and they were abstracted. Also, for the zones
bordering with countries out of the study area (Turkey, Russia – former socialistic
republics) the freight flows were adjusted to the observed traffic volumes at borders
within the study area.
The attractions were automatically calculated through the use of the complete O-D
matrix.
5.1.3.2 The model
The forecast of international traffic flows on the various road sections of Corridor X
was based on the creation of models with the use of TRIPS (TRansport Improvement
Planning System) software for transport planning. Two models were constructed;
one for the modelling of passenger transport and one for freight transport. The
simulations concerned the stages of trip distribution to zones and trip assignment on
the network.
Traffic zones and road network
Due to the fact that Corridor X crosses and serves a big part of the Balkan Peninsula,
the study area was set to be the Balkan countries and their main road network. Each
Balkan country considered as a unique traffic zone with trip productions and
attractions with the capital as centroid. Several external zones were used, in order to
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include the trips from and to the rest of the European countries in the simulation of
international traffic on Corridor X. The definition of the external zones was based on
the socioeconomic characteristics of the various countries, on their geographic
position and the road network connecting them with the Balkans. In total 24 traffic
zones were defined.
The codification of the road network was performed based exclusively on the road
sections characteristics (Link Based Network). Primarily the nodes are defined and
then the connections between them are defined too. Then, for each road section the
capacity, the distance, the road category, the running time and other indicators are
defined.
The representation of the delays observed at the cross border stations was simulated
by adding time charging/penalties (in TRIPS the additional travel time and
economic charges are simulated as tolls) at the respective points of the network.
The hierarchy of the road network and therefore the calculation of the capacity of
traffic lanes per hour are based on the Great Britain’s standings (Department of
Transport, DOE Advice Note 1A, 1971), which are compatible with the TRIPS
structure.
The examination of the digitized network and the calibration was performed for each
pair of traffic zones (using AVROAD application), the best routes were defined with
"all or nothing" method and then tested.
After the network calibration a cost matrix was calculated using the AVROAD based
on the generalised cost function used in TRIPS.
Generalised cost
The calculation of the optimum routes and generally of the travel cost per pair of
zones, was performed based on the relation of generalized cost. Time was selected to
be the expression of generalised cost. The cost of tolls used in the generalised cost
equation represents the delays at cross borders.
Model for trip distribution to zones
The trip distribution was based on the methodology of gravity models.
For the model calibration two matrices were used: an O-D of freight transport for the
year 2000, and cost matrix (time-distances) between the zones.
Having the gravity model calibrated and using the results of the trip generation stage
(trip ends) the O-D matrices for each scenario and target year were estimated.
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Traffic assignment
The trip assignment was performed using the TRIPS AVROAD application with “all
or nothing” method, where for each pair of origin-destination one and only optimum
route (depending on generalized time) is calculated.
No issues of capacity limitations are examined, because the assignment refers only to
international traffic and obviously no volumes close to capacity are expected.
Each origin-destination matrix of the scenarios was distributed to the road network
and the traffic assignment of the various sections of Corridor X occurred.
5.1.3.3 Estimation of local traffic and assignment of road Corridor X
Following the assignment of the international flows on the study network and
Corridor X, the traffic volumes are abstracted from the observed respective volumes,
in order to estimate the local traffic for the base year.
For the various target years and scenarios the local traffic was calculated by applying
an annual growth rate of 1.25 on the annual growth rate of GDP of each country.
Hence, the total assignment for the various target years and scenarios is achieved by
the distribution of the international traffic and the addition of the each time
estimated local traffic.
5.2
Formulation of scenarios (time horizons)
The time horizons for the economic analysis, and therefore for the traffic projections,
are formulated depending on the construction and operation period of the project.
The first year of the analysis period is set to be the year 2008.
For Alignment 1 the construction period is from six to eight years, while for the
scope of the study the construction is considered to take six (6) years, in the period
2008-2013.
In the case of Alignment 2 the construction period is three to four years. For the
scope of the study the construction period is three (3) years, i.e. 2008-2010.
Therefore, the first year of operation of pay-toll motorway between Demir Kapija
and Smokvica is 2014 in the case of upgrading the existing road to a motorway
(Alignment 1) and 2011 in the case of construction of a totally new motorway
(Alignment 2).
The usual period of economic analysis of a project is 25 years, despite the fact that
project’s life cycle is undoubtedly longer than that. However, traffic estimations for
longer time horizons would be arbitrary; one could doubt even for a shorter
projection of traffic is such a sensitive and uncertain, also complex in terms of
economic development, region. For the scope of the study, traffic estimations are
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made for each year during the 25-years period of analysis, in order to estimate the
economic benefits from the reduction of vehicles operational costs, from the
reduction of accidents and also to estimate the revenues from the charge of
motorway users.
5.3
Traffic forecasts
5.3.1 Evaluation of traffic projections
5.3.1.1 General conclusions of the traffic flows forecasting of the Technical
Secretariat of Corridor X
The development priorities of the Corridor X’s infrastructure, experience the
infrastructure development criteria at Pan-European, and not only national, level.
Priorities are not defined only by the demand-supply relation, but also by their
involvement in development projects of strategic character, where among their other
aims are also the arsis of the Western Balkans’ area isolation and the securing of the
consecutiveness of the structural and operational characteristics of the
infrastructures. Transport policy, as expressed by the Directorate General for Energy
and Transport of the European Commission, is interpreted to the effort of the PanEuropean and Trans-European Networks implementation, and to the definition of a
Western Balkans Core Network based on REBIS. The national strategies are from
now on adjusted to the same direction, which is of course the most appropriate way
for securing international financing.
The most important result arising from the forecasting process is that international
traffic flows, despite the increasing trends, will not be the, at least in the short-term,
the main component of traffic volumes:
In the medium-realistic scenario, by the year 2005 the road international transport in
Corridor X’s countries – at national level – of commercial vehicles will increase by 1328% and of passenger vehicles by 18-28%. By 2010 – compared to 2000 – the
international flows of commercial vehicles will increase by 28-63% and of passenger
vehicles by 18-69%. Finally by 2015, the international flows of commercial vehicles
will increase by 45-108% and of passenger vehicles by 31-235%. The lowest values
refer to Austria, whilst the highest ones refer to the Balkan countries.
In the low scenario, the international freight transport flows will increase by 6-13%
by 2005, by 13-28% by 2010 and by 20-45% by 2015. Respectively, the international
passenger transport flows will increase by 8-24% by 2005, by 18-57% by 2010 and by
31-102% by 2015.
Finally, in the high scenario, the international freight transport flows will increase by
20-44% by 2005, by 45-106% by 2010 and by 74-196% by 2015. Respectively, the
international passenger transport flows will increase by 8-32% by 2005, by 18-85% by
2010 and by 31-192% by 2015.
Furthermore, on road Corridor X, bottlenecks are not expected to appear, except near
big cities or the capitals of the countries (for example near Belgrade), only in the case
that bypasses’ construction plans won’t be implemented, and at some links, where
also motorways construction plans exist.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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5.3.1.2 Results and evaluation of results of the various available traffic flows
forecasting exercises
There are various traffic projections available, derived by traffic flows forecasting
exercises in the past.
The results of the traffic forecasting tool of Technical Secretariat for Corridor X in the
moderate scenario are presented in the following table:
Demir Kapija –
Udovo
Udovo –
Gevgelija
Demir Kapija –
Gevgelija
(weighted)
AADT
2000
(veh/day)
AADT
2005
(veh/day)
Average
of annual
traffic
growth
factor
2000-2005
AADT
2015
(veh/day)
Average
of annual
traffic
growth
factor
2005-2015
Average
of annual
traffic
growth
factor
2000-2015
2,754
3,711
5.1%
5,476
4%
4.7%
3,334
4,955
6.8%
7,430
4.1%
5.5%
3,060
4,366
4.6%
6,506
4.1%
5.2%
The table below details traffic forecasts of the Technical Secretariat and REBIS for
2005, as well as the actual recorded AADT:
Section
Demir Kapija –
Udovo
Udovo – Gevgelija
Demir Kapija –
Gevgelija
(weighted)
Forecasted AADT for 2005-06 in
veh/day
Technical
REBIS (2006)
Secretariat (2005)
Actual
AADT in
2005
(veh/day)
Actual
AADT in
2006
(veh/day)
3,711
2,877
2,671
3,596
4,955
4,084
3,368
4,098
4,366
3,513
3,038
3,860
Compared to the actual traffic flows it is concluded that the forecast of the Technical
Secretariat is higher. However, traffic growth within one year, between 2005 and
2006, was very high, that one may rationally allege that any attempt for traffic
forecast might easily proved unsuccessful.
It is considered that this high increase is a result of the stabilization of the situation in
the wider region; however, traffic is not expected to continue growing with the same
high rates. Hence, for the scope of the present study, it is considered that more or less
the same traffic volumes are expected by the year 2015, no matter if that will be the
result of stable increase or a jump in the first years.
Average annual growth factor of the forecast of the Technical Secretariat during the
entire period 2000-2015 is 5.2%.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
59
The estimation of REBIS for the year 2006 is 3,513 veh/day along the section from
Demir Kapija to the Gevgelija. REBIS estimates 5,561 veh/day for the year 2015 and
8,770 veh/day for the year 2025. Average annual growth factors calculated by the
projections of REBIS are 4.58% in the period 2001-2006, 5.24% in the period 2006-2015
and 4.66% in the period 2015-2025. Average annual growth factor of REBIS forecast
during the entire period 2001-2025 is 4.86%.
Section
Udovo – Gevgelija
Demir Kapija –
Gevgelija (weighted)
Forecasted AADT for 2015 in veh/day
Technical Secretariat
REBIS
TIRS
5,476
4,554
n.a.
7,430
6,465
n.a.
6,506
5,561
4,450
Based on the above considerations, an annual traffic growth factor of 5% is
considered a realistic and achievable assumption for the next years until 2015. This
level of growth would mean that depending on the type of intervention (do nothing,
upgrade, motorway construction), in some year between 2015 and 2020 the traffic
volumes on the corridor would be back at the levels they were in 1990 (i.e.
immediately before the regional crisis), at about 6,000 veh/day.
Finally, it is considered unlikely that traffic will continue growing at the same rates
indefinitely. Over the period 2015 – 2025 traffic is assumed to grow at a reduced rate
of 4% per annum and from 2025 onwards at a rate of 3% annually.
5.3.1.3 Traffic projection to various target years
Following the review of the available traffic forecasts presented in the above, the
projection of traffic for the period of economic analysis of the project is performed,
based on the assumption that traffic flows will grow faster within the next decade
(by 5% annually), slower in the period 2015 – 2025 with annual growth factor of 4%
and after 2025 with annual growth factor of 3%. These assumptions are considered
conservative for a developing country, while in EU countries annual traffic growth is
between 2-3%.
Generated and diverted traffic on a future motorway (alternatives B, C, D)
Generated traffic occurs on the first year of operation of the motorway, when is given
to traffic. The new infrastructure with higher level of service has a direct impact on
traffic. Therefore, apart from the traffic growth represented in the model by the
increased mobility (and car ownership) due to the improvement of the economic
status and potential of the residents of the F.Y.R. of Macedonia and of the residents
of all the other considered traffic zones and countries in the form of GDP increase, an
additional increase of traffic by 10% is considered realistic to expect after the
motorway opening to traffic.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
60
Furthermore, additional traffic is expected as a result of the completion of the entire
motorway from Skopje to the Greek border, which would cause diversion of traffic
from the M-5 and M-6 roads from/ to Strumica and Dojran (See Map 5.1). This
percentage is considered to be an additional 5%, i.e. around to 200 veh/day.
The introduction of tolls along the new motorway will cause traffic volumes
decrease. In the present study, the diverted traffic is estimated with the use of
respective percentages per vehicle category, as estimated for Serbian motorways.
Diverted traffic to the alternative road network would be around 7.7% of the traffic
estimated for the last year of construction:
Diverted traffic to the
alternative road network
Small cars
Buses
Heavy trucks
Articulated
trucks
9%
3%
5%
0%
The above percentages are applied in the case of Alignment 1, where the new
motorway offers direct connection to Udovo and the connecting links to Miravci and
Valandovo.
In the case of Alignment 2, the direct access to Udovo and the connecting roads R-103
to Miravci and R-110 and R-116 to Valandovo is disturbed (See Map 5.1). Therefore,
the diversion of forecasted traffic to the existing M-1 road (serving as alternative road
in this case) would be higher.
Map 5.1: Adjacent and alternative road network
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
61
Through the examination of the traffic assignment performed by Scetauroute for the
year 1998, it is estimated that a percentage of 25% of the traffic between Demir Kapija
and Udovo is directed to Valandovo and Miravci. Thus, it is assumed that upon the
opening to traffic of the new motorway section on the west bank of Vardar River a
direct loss of additional traffic volumes will occur along the motorway. In the case of
Alignment 2 the following percentages of diverted traffic per vehicle category are
assumed:
Diverted traffic to the
alternative road network
Small cars
Buses
Heavy trucks
Articulated
trucks
27%
9%
15%
0%
Forecasted traffic is estimated with the application of annual growth factors, addition
of the generated traffic on the first year of operation and subtraction of the diverted
traffic in the first year of operation and introduction to the pay-toll system:
Alignment 1
Alignment 2
First year of operation – addition
of generated traffic
2014
2011
Introduction of tolls – subtraction of
diverted traffic to alternative network
2014
2011
In the following tables the annual projected traffic of the section under examination
are presented for the “Do Minimum” Alternative A and the motorway alternatives
for each one of the two examined alignments.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
62
Traffic forecast along Demir Kapija – Smokvica section
“Do minimum” Alternative
Year
Motorcycles
Private
cars
Vans
and
Buses
pickups
Light
Medium
Heavy
Articulated
trucks
trucks
trucks
trucks
Total
PCUs
2006
36
2,464
250
71
143
143
214
250
3,571
4,928
2007
37
2,587
262
75
150
150
225
262
3,750
5,174
2008
39
2,717
276
79
157
157
236
276
3,937
5,433
2009
41
2,852
289
83
165
165
248
289
4,134
5,705
2010
43
2,995
304
87
174
174
260
304
4,341
5,990
2011
46
3,145
319
91
182
182
273
319
4,558
6,289
2012
48
3,302
335
96
191
191
287
335
4,785
6,604
2013
50
3,467
352
100
201
201
301
352
5,025
6,934
2014
53
3,640
369
106
211
211
317
369
5,276
7,281
2015
55
3,822
388
111
222
222
332
388
5,540
7,645
2016
58
4,014
407
116
233
233
349
407
5,817
8,027
2017
60
4,174
423
121
242
242
363
423
6,049
8,348
2018
63
4,341
440
126
252
252
377
440
6,291
8,682
2019
65
4,515
458
131
262
262
393
458
6,543
9,029
2020
68
4,695
476
136
272
272
408
476
6,805
9,391
2021
71
4,883
495
142
283
283
425
495
7,077
9,766
2022
74
5,078
515
147
294
294
442
515
7,360
10,157
2023
77
5,282
536
153
306
306
459
536
7,654
10,563
2024
80
5,493
557
159
318
318
478
557
7,961
10,986
2025
83
5,713
580
166
331
331
497
580
8,279
11,425
2026
86
5,941
603
172
344
344
517
603
8,610
11,882
2027
89
6,119
621
177
355
355
532
621
8,869
12,239
2028
91
6,303
639
183
365
365
548
639
9,135
12,606
2029
94
6,492
659
188
376
376
565
659
9,409
12,984
2030
97
6,687
678
194
388
388
581
678
9,691
13,373
2031
100
6,887
699
200
399
399
599
699
9,982
13,775
2032
103
7,094
720
206
411
411
617
720
10,281
14,188
2033
106
7,307
741
212
424
424
635
741
10,590
14,614
2034
109
7,526
764
218
436
436
654
764
10,907
15,052
2035
112
7,752
786
225
449
449
674
786
11,234
15,504
Average traffic for the operational period 2008 – 2032 is estimated at 6,936 veh/day
(9,572 PCUs/day).
For comparison to the motorway alternatives the average traffic for the periods of
operation of the two motorway solutions (alignments) are the following:

2014 – 2032 (Alignment 1): 7,717 veh/day (10,650 PCUs/day)
2011 – 2032 (Alignment 2): 7,460 veh/day (10,295 PCUs/day)
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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63
Traffic forecast along Demir Kapija – Smokvica motorway section
Motorway Alignment 1
Year
Motorcycles
Private
cars
Vans
and
Buses
pickups
Light
Medium
Heavy
Articulated
trucks
trucks
trucks
trucks
Total
PCUs
2006
36
2,464
250
71
143
143
214
250
3,571
4,928
2007
37
2,587
262
75
150
150
225
262
3,750
5,174
2008
39
2,717
276
79
157
157
236
276
3,937
5,433
2009
41
2,852
289
83
165
165
248
289
4,134
5,705
2010
43
2,995
304
87
174
174
260
304
4,341
5,990
2011
46
3,145
319
91
182
182
273
319
4,558
6,289
2012
48
3,302
335
96
191
191
287
335
4,785
6,604
2013
50
3,467
352
100
201
201
301
352
5,025
6,934
2014
55
3,810
386
118
231
231
346
425
5,601
7,838
2015
58
4,000
406
124
242
242
363
446
5,881
8,230
2016
61
4,200
426
130
254
254
381
468
6,175
8,642
2017
63
4,368
443
135
264
264
397
487
6,422
8,988
2018
66
4,543
461
140
275
275
412
506
6,679
9,347
2019
68
4,725
479
146
286
286
429
527
6,946
9,721
2020
71
4,914
498
152
297
297
446
548
7,224
10,110
2021
74
5,110
518
158
309
309
464
570
7,513
10,514
2022
77
5,315
539
164
322
322
482
592
7,813
10,935
2023
80
5,527
561
171
335
335
502
616
8,126
11,372
2024
83
5,748
583
178
348
348
522
641
8,451
11,827
2025
87
5,978
606
185
362
362
543
666
8,789
12,300
2026
90
6,217
631
192
376
376
564
693
9,140
12,792
2027
93
6,404
650
198
388
388
581
714
9,415
13,176
2028
96
6,596
669
204
399
399
599
735
9,697
13,571
2029
98
6,794
689
210
411
411
617
757
9,988
13,978
2030
101
6,998
710
216
423
423
635
780
10,288
14,398
2031
104
7,208
731
223
436
436
654
804
10,596
14,830
2032
108
7,424
753
229
449
449
674
828
10,914
15,274
2033
111
7,647
776
236
463
463
694
852
11,241
15,733
2034
114
7,876
799
243
477
477
715
878
11,579
16,205
2035
118
8,112
823
251
491
491
736
904
11,926
16,691
Average traffic for the analysis period 2008 – 2032 is estimated at 7,297 veh/day
(10,192 PCUs/day).
For the operational period 2014 – 2032 average traffic is estimated at 8,192 veh/day
(11,465 PCUs/day).
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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Traffic forecast along Demir Kapija – Smokvica motorway section
Motorway Alignment 2
Private
Vans
Light
Medium
Heavy
Articulated
trucks
trucks
trucks
trucks
Total
PCUs
250
3,571
4,928
225
262
3,750
5,174
157
236
276
3,937
5,433
165
165
248
289
4,134
5,705
87
174
174
260
304
4,341
5,990
268
95
178
178
267
367
4,032
5,848
2,772
281
100
187
187
281
385
4,234
6,140
2,911
295
105
196
196
295
404
4,445
6,447
44
3,056
310
110
206
206
309
425
4,668
6,769
2015
47
3,209
326
116
217
217
325
446
4,901
7,108
2016
49
3,369
342
122
227
227
341
468
5,146
7,463
2017
51
3,504
355
127
237
237
355
487
5,352
7,762
2018
53
3,644
370
132
246
246
369
506
5,566
8,072
2019
55
3,790
385
137
256
256
384
527
5,789
8,395
2020
57
3,942
400
142
266
266
399
548
6,020
8,731
2021
59
4,099
416
148
277
277
415
570
6,261
9,080
2022
62
4,263
433
154
288
288
432
592
6,511
9,443
2023
64
4,434
450
160
299
299
449
616
6,772
9,821
2024
67
4,611
468
167
311
311
467
641
7,043
10,214
2025
70
4,796
487
173
324
324
486
666
7,324
10,623
2026
72
4,988
506
180
337
337
505
693
7,617
11,047
2027
74
5,137
521
186
347
347
520
714
7,846
11,379
2028
77
5,291
537
191
357
357
536
735
8,081
11,720
2029
79
5,450
553
197
368
368
552
757
8,324
12,072
2030
81
5,614
569
203
379
379
568
780
8,574
12,434
2031
84
5,782
587
209
390
390
585
804
8,831
12,807
2032
86
5,955
604
215
402
402
603
828
9,096
13,191
2033
89
6,134
622
222
414
414
621
852
9,369
13,587
2034
92
6,318
641
228
426
426
640
878
9,650
13,995
2035
94
6,508
660
235
439
439
659
904
9,939
14,414
and
Buses
Year
Motorcycles
2006
36
2,464
250
71
143
143
214
2007
37
2,587
262
75
150
150
2008
39
2,717
276
79
157
2009
41
2,852
289
83
2010
43
2,995
304
2011
38
2,640
2012
40
2013
42
2014
cars
pickups
Average traffic for the analysis period 2008 – 2032 is estimated at 6,194 veh/day
(8,948 PCUs/day).
For the operational period 2011 – 2032 average traffic is estimated at 6,474 veh/day
(9,389 PCUs/day).
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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5.4
Evaluation of alternatives level of service in function with the forecasted
traffic flows
The tool for the calculation of the level of service is the Highway Capacity Manual
(HCM) 2000 for two-lane and multi-lane highways. The basic traffic parameter taken
into consideration for the definition of the Level of Service is the 50th maximum
hourly traffic.
The 50th maximum hourly traffic for multi-lane highways is defined by multiplying
the Annual Average Daily Traffic by 0.14 for unfavourable conditions. The 15-min
passenger-car equivalent flow rate (pc/hr/lane) is estimated with the assumption of
50%-50% (2001 data) distribution of traffic between opposite directions. For each
subsection of the section under study the Volume over Capacity (V/C) ratio is
calculated for every traffic projection annually in the analysis period.
It occurs that the 15-min passenger-car equivalent flow rate (pc/hr/lane) is retained
below 1,400pc/h/lane in the entire period of analysis, which is the Free Flow Speed
(FFS) upper limit under low volume conditions [10].
It is estimated that the level of service will be retained at Level A for almost the entire
period of analysis due to the low levels of traffic. At this point it should be
mentioned that the recommended level of motorway utilisation is LOS D and
maximum level of utilisation is LOS B.
Concerning the existing M-1 road, taking into consideration the 50th maximum
hourly traffic (AADT*0.12) it is concluded that, according to the existing and
forecasted traffic, the LOS (if consider 0% of permitted overtaking) will reach LOS E
in at least fifteen years.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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6.
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
The following include the evaluation of benefits in relation to the construction and
operational costs of the road section in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,
which connects Demir Kapija with Smokvica. As it was reported in previous
chapters this road axis is classified as part of the main and most important corridor
of the national road network of the country, while at the same time it constitutes a
section of the Pan-European Road Corridor X. Accordingly, the technical and
economical evaluation of the project concerning the upgrade of the geometrical and
operational characteristics of this road section has a particular importance, not only
for F.Y.R Macedonia, but also for the wider area of the Balkans and Europe.
A comparative technical and economical evaluation is separately carried out for two
motorway projects.
In total seven (7) alternatives concerning the road construction are examined, i.e. the
“Do minimum” alternative (alternative A) that concerns upgrading of the existing
road and also the other three alternatives, B, C and D that concern the motorway
construction (separated carriageways) for each of the two alignments.
The two under study alignments are the following:
Alignment 1
Alignment 2
Length
32.15km
28.05km
The time schedule for the completion of the construction of the two alignments
(independently of the alternative) is presented below:
Alignment 1
Alignment 2
Construction
period
2008 – 2013
2008 – 2010
Years in construction
6 years
3 years
First year of full
operation
2014
2011
The period of analysis for each section was considered equal to 25 years. The year
2008 was considered as the "base year" since it constitutes the year of beginning of
the construction works and hence the year for the payment of the first expenses. The
period of analysis for the whole project is 25 years, from year 2008 to year 2032.
6.1
Parameters of the analysis
All the costs and benefits were valued in constant prices of the current year for the
purpose of the economical and technical evaluation of the project.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
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The construction cost as well as the operational cost (expenses for the annual and
periodical maintenance etc.), are considered as the costs of the project. Benefits
include the reduction of the vehicles' operational cost, the reduction of the road
accidents (benefits expressed in monetary values) and the reduction in travel time
(taking into account the value of time). Tolls are examined only in the framework of
the cash flow analysis and were not taken into consideration in the economic
analysis for the calculation of the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and the Net Present
Value (NPV).
Benefits and expenses should be valued using economic (real) prices, i.e. the market
prices (monetary prices), according to the approved specifications of the Ministry of
Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works concerning feasibility studies for
road projects in Greece (Approved Decision of the Direction for the Study of
Highway Projects, DMEO/a/O/1885/8-7-1996, paragraph 5.2). Taxes, VAT, assets
depreciation, employers' share etc., should be deducted from the market prices in
order that economic indicators (IRR, NPV) will result from "clearly economic" prices.
The construction cost included in the budget of the present study is reduced by 20%
taking into account the above-mentioned directive. This reduction is considered that
it includes the participation of the previously mentioned parameters in the budget of
the construction projects.
Economic prices are equal to financial prices minus taxes (20%), hence it is estimated
as 80% of the financial prices.
6.1.1
Determination of expected cost elements
The expenses which are associated to the under study project refer to the
construction cost and to the maintenance and operational cost of the road (annual
and periodical maintenance).
6.1.1.1 Construction cost
The following presents the costs included in the budget of the project and which are
associated with the improvement of the geometrical and operational characteristics
of the road section under study.
It must be clarified at this point that alternative D concerns the transformation of the
existing road into separated motorway with a cross-section of 27.6m or 28.2m,
guardrail that separates the two directions, and two lanes per direction (of 3.75m
width each one), in the case of Alignment 1 (detail design) and in the case of
Alignment 2 (preliminary design), respectively.
Alternatives B and C are lower cost solutions with lower geometrical and
operational characteristics (compared to Alternatives D), as described in Chapter 4.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
68
The economic construction costs for Alternative D of each of the two alignments
have been provided by the F.N.R.R. The economic construction costs of Alternatives
B and C were estimated on the basis of the costs of Alternative D. Costs used in the
economic analysis for each alternative are the following:
Alignment 1
Alignment 2
Length
(km)
32.15
28.05
Economic construction cost (€)
Alternative B
Alternative C
152,613,331
144,501,616
107,989,433
114,829,350
Alternative D
156,621,546
125,149,748
In the case of Alignment 1 the cost of Alternative C is 2.6% lower than the cost of
Alternative D, while the cost of Alternative B is 7.7% lower than the cost of
Alternative D. In the case of Alignment 2 the respective percentages are 8.25% and
13.7%.
Comparing the costs of the base alternatives (D) of the two alignments, the cost of
Alignment 2 is 25% less. The construction costs per kilometre are 4.9 mo€/km in the
case of Alignment 1 and 4.5 mo€/km in the case of Alignment 2.
For the alternatives of motorway construction the costs are distributed in time as
follows:
Alignment 1
Alignment 2
2008
17%
25%
2009
17%
40%
2010
17%
35%
2011
17%
2012
2013
17%
15%
In operation
6.1.1.2 Operational expenses (annual and periodical maintenance)
Alternative A: Existing M-1 road
The last rehabilitation of the existing road was performed in 1990. According to the
F.N.R.R., roads should be rehabilitated every fifteen years. Therefore, the upgrade of
the existing road is considered that should take place immediately and such works
should include the repair of damages, the pavement rehabilitation (surfacing), the
rehabilitation of bridges and replacement and improvement of the traffic and
technical equipment.
In the 25-years study period the road should be rehabilitated after fifteen years, in
2023.
The economic cost of upgrade works is estimated on the basis of unit costs provided
by the F.N.R.R. for such works at 25,747,916 €.
Concerning the annual economic cost for maintenance and operation of existing M-1
road in the entire period of analysis, it is estimated at 8,622 €/km, which results
308,961 €/year for the existing M-1 road (estimated on the basis of unit costs
provided by the F.N.R.R.).
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Alternatives B, C and D: Motorway construction
The operational expenses taken into consideration are the following:

the annual expenses of the road operation and maintenance (e.g., lighting,
enforcement, road signing and marking, road equipment etc).
the periodical maintenance expenses, which concern important maintenance
interventions in the road network (e.g. new pavement).
The economic cost of rehabilitation (periodical maintenance) works of the motorway
used in the present study is based on the unit cost of 491,000 €/km estimated in the
feasibility study for the “gorge” section between Grdelica and Grabovnica in Serbia
[7]. For Alignment 1, taking into account the increased length of tunnels, this cost is
considered to be 5% higher.
Alignment 1
Alignment 2
Length (km)
32.15
28.05
Cost/ km
515,550 €
491,000 €
Total Cost
16,574,933 €
13,772,550 €
The unit cost of 22,000 €/km estimated in the feasibility study for the “gorge” section
between Grdelica and Grabovnica in Serbia is used for the annual operation and
maintenance costs of the motorway. As in the case of rehabilitation costs, it is
considered that the operational and maintenance costs for the motorway in the case
of Alignment 1 would be 5% higher.
Alignment 1
Alignment 2
Length (km)
32.15
28.05
Annual cost per km
23,100 €
22,000 €
Annual cost
742,665 €
617,100 €
It is considered that rehabilitation will take place in 15 years after opening to traffic.
More specifically, the years considered for the purpose of reconstruction are the year
2028 for Alignment 1 and the year 2025 for Alignment 2.
6.1.2
Determination of expected benefit elements
Benefits result from:
the reduction of the vehicle operational expenses
the time savings due to travel time reduction and increase of operational speed
the reduction in the cost of road accidents due to the reduction in the number of
these accidents
the residual (economic) value of the project
Benefits that result from tolls are not considered in the economic analysis.
The traffic volumes, which are associated to the section under study in each
examined alignment/ alternative, are those that were forecasted as average of the
operational period during the period of analysis.
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Hereinafter, the description of the main parameters of the technical and economical
analysis is presented. All the calculations of the analysis that are described below are
presented in “special sheets of analysis” which are included in the Annex B of the
present Technical Report.
6.1.2.1 Time savings
For the assessment of the benefits due to time savings, the estimation of the mean
operational speed of each section is based on the assumption, based on experience
gained from other projects, that it represents on average the 80% of the free flow
speed. For light vehicles it is considered that:

mean speed of 48km/h corresponds to maximum (cruising) speed of
60km/h;
mean speed of 65km/h to maximum speed of 80km/h;
mean speed of 80km/h to maximum speed of 100km/h;
mean speed of 90km/h to maximum speed of 110km/h; and
mean speed of 95km/h to maximum speed of 120km/h.
For heavy vehicles the above values are reduced by 15%.
It is assumed that mean speed will remain relatively stable throughout the analysis
period, given the fact that at motorways – especially low traffic motorways, mean
speed is reducing very slowly in time, still not affecting the V/C ratio for Level of
Service C (0.5).
The following tables present the running times for light vehicles in each alternative
examined:
Alternative A
Existing M-1 road
Sub-section
Udovo – Smokvica
Total
Average operational
speed (km/h)
56
65
59.1
Length (km)
Running time (min)
22.27
13.564
35.834
23.9
12.5
36.4
Upgraded existing M-1 road
For the examination of Alternative A, the upgrade of the existing M-1 road is
assumed that would result an increase of operational speed by 10%, thus operational
speed in that case along the entire section would be 65km/h and the respective
running time 33.1 minutes.
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Alternatives B and C
Alignment 1
Sub-section
Udovo – Smokvica
Total
Average operational
speed (km/h)
76.6
90
81.2
Length (km)
Running time (min)
19.9
12.25
32.15
15.6
8.2
23.8
Alignment 2
Section
Demir Kapija – Smokvica
Total
Average operational
speed (km/h)
90
90
Length (km)
28.05
28.05
Running time
(min)
18.0
18.7
Alternative D
Alignment 1
Sub-section
Udovo – Smokvica
Total
Average operational
speed (km/h)
76.6
95
82.7
Length (km)
Running time (min)
19.9
12.25
32.15
15.6
7.8
23.4
Length (km)
Running time (min)
28.05
28.05
17.7
17.7
Alignment 2
Section
Demir Kapija – Smokvica
Total
Average operational
speed (km/h)
95
95
6.1.2.2 Benefits form the vehicle operational costs reduction
Benefits from the reduction of the vehicle operational cost come from the
comparison made with and without the project:
Fuel savings
Savings due to the fact that vehicles will cover fewer kilometers in the road
network and thus they will be used for less time (this leads to the fact that the
vehicle will not lose its value so fast as in the past)
The parameters that were taken into consideration for the analysis of these three
categories are presented in the following:
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Fuel savings
It is considered that fuel savings are due to improvements of the road operational
characteristics. The conditions of driving will change in the case of a motorway
compared to the case of the existing situation (driving in quite difficult conditions
will be replaced by driving under good conditions). This saving is estimated to be
equal to 0.01 lt/veh*km for the passenger cars and 0.02 lt/veh*km for the diesel
trucks and Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs). These values resulted from the
examination of the vehicles' manufacturer specifications (official documents from
vehicle manufacturers concerning representative passenger cars and HGVs).
The cost of the unleaded petrol is considered equal to 0.97 €/litre and the cost of
diesel is considered equal to 0.81 €/litre. These values are the current market prices
in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. The use of these values was
preferred to cover the possibility of increase, which does not follow inflation, but
depends mainly to world oil market and to political decisions.
Savings due to distance reduction
It is considered that part of the operational cost depends on the distance covered by
the vehicle (that is to say is proportional with the distance). The value of vehicle
operation for passenger cars is considered equal to 0.03 €/veh*km. This value is
based on the approved specifications of the Ministry of Environment, Physical
Planning and Public Works concerning feasibility studies for road projects in Greece.
Savings due to the reduction of time at which vehicles are in operation
It is considered that part of the vehicle operational cost depends on the time spend to
cover the distance. The value of the vehicle operation (as far as time is concerned) is
considered equal to 0.08 €/veh*hour for passenger cars and 0.09 €/veh*hour for
trucks. These values are based on the approved specifications of the Ministry of
Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works concerning feasibility studies for
road projects in Greece.
6.1.2.3 Benefits from time savings as far as the vehicle users are concerned
In order to calculate the time savings (and express them in monetary values) for the
vehicle users, the expected value of the average hourly income in the country is used
according to the approved specifications of the Ministry of Environment, Physical
Planning and Public Works concerning feasibility studies for road projects in Greece.
In the framework of the present study the value of time for different trip purposes
are considered, based on the estimation performed in the feasibility study for
Tabanovce – Kumanovo motorway in January 2007, that the value of time for a
business trip is 2.35 €/hour. On the basis of this value, a working hour rate of 3.40
€/hour was estimated to represent the average values of working time during the
operational period for each motorway alternative, considering an annual increase of
income by 2%.
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The following values are formulated:
for trips made in the framework of work (e.g., salesman) and for professional
drivers the value of time is considered equal to 3.40 €/hour
for trip purpose “to and from work” the value of time is considered equal to 1.70
€/hour (which is equal to 50% of the average daily salary)
for trips with other purposes is considered equal to 0.85 €/hour
Vehicle occupancy rates taken into consideration in the framework of the present
study are:
Vehicle type
Passenger cars
Vehicle
occupancy
2
Trucks
1.2
Buses
45
Trip purpose
To and from work, in the framework of work,
other purposes
In the framework of work
To and from work, in the framework of work,
other purposes
The following table presents the % distribution of trip purpose (all trip purposes are
concerned) in respect to the vehicle type, as it was taken into consideration in the
respective calculations.
Vehicle type
Passenger cars
Trucks
Buses
Trip purpose
35%:
to and from work
45%:
in the framework of work & professional drivers
20%:
other purposes
100 %: in the framework of work
65%:
to and from work
5%:
in the framework of work & professional drivers
30%:
other purposes
6.1.2.4 Benefits from the reduction in the number of road accidents
The values of human life cannot be expressed in monetary terms. However, the very
important problem of road safety worldwide led to the establishment of various
approaches for the estimation of the consequences from the loss of a life in road
accidents. These approaches are based on various parameters such as lost
production, the funeral expenses, the human pain etc. Another approach is based on
the amount of money the insurance companies pay or the juridical decisions for
compensation because of fatal road accidents. The value of human life in the
developed countries can range from a minimum of 400,000 € and can reach even
2,000,000 €.
Medical expenses, pain and loss production must be expressed in monetary values
in the case of injuries which take place in traffic accidents. Pain can constitute up to
50% of the total expenses associated to an injury. The estimation of loss of
production is based on the conditions concerning the injured person that existed
before the accident. The average cost of a light injury in a traffic accident is estimated
to be in the area of 15,000 – 20,000 € in Great Britain.
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The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering of the University of Belgrade
estimates that motorway projects result a 40% reduction in the number of traffic
accidents, based on their experience from other motorway projects in Serbia. This
moderate percentage of reduction is also used in the current study (in cases of
motorway construction in other European countries the percentage of reduction is
between 50 and 70%).
For the alternatives of motorway construction with narrower cross sections the
reduction of accidents applied in the economic analysis is the same, since it is
considered that the separation of opposite direction traffic is the main factor for
accidents reduction. Road safety is subjected to the geometry of each alternative, and
therefore narrower cross sections (and traffic lanes) could have lower accident
savings. Apart from the fact that this effect is not quantifiable, it is also considered
very small to affect the economic analysis and therefore the same percentage of
accidents reduction is used for all the motorway alternatives in the present study.
For the estimation of the benefits due to the reduction of accidents after the
realisation of the project, unit costs per type of accident are used. Considering the
fact that the motorway users are partially EU nationals and locals, the European unit
costs could not be applied directly to the number of accidents. The unit costs used in
the current study are half of the European with the assumption that 20% of the road
users are EU residents.
The assumption that international transit traffic is 20% of the total traffic is based on
the statistics of entrances and exits at border crossing Bogorodica.
The unit costs are calculated with the multiplication of the estimated value of one
hour of business travelling (3.40 €/h) by the following factors:

for deaths: 43,000
for heavy injuries: 5,100
for light injuries: 400
The above factors are recommended by the United Nations Economic Committee for
Europe (UNECE) recommendations through the report “A Set of Guidelines for
socioeconomic cost – benefit analysis of transport infrastructure project appraisal“
(2003) in the case of lack of reliable data.
The unit costs per type of accident are presented in the following table:
Type of accident
Fatal accidents
Accidents with severe injuries
Accidents with light injuries
Accidents with damages
* Source: [6]
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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Average unit
cost in European
countries*
1,000,000 €
125,000 €
38,462 €
4,739 €
Accident unit
cost in
F.Y.R.O.M.
146,200 €
17,340 €
1,360 €
170 €
Accidents unit
cost used in the
study
316,960 €
38,872 €
8,780 €
1,084 €
75
The unit costs used in the present study are weighted values according to the
proportion of domestic and international traffic (80% - 20%, respectively).
Concerning the estimation of the number of accidents in the base year 2007 along the
section under study, it was based on the indices extracted based on the registered
accidents in 2005 along the M-1 road in Serbia between Grabovnica and F.Y.R.O.M.
borders, and more specifically, on the Grdelica “gorge”, a national road with very
similar characteristics, as well as drivers’ behaviour. The number of accidents used
for the base year 2007 is estimated with the assumption of low increase of accidents
by 2% annually. In the following table, the annual numbers of various types of
accidents per kilometre are presented:
Annual number per km
Accidents with
damages only
Fatalities
Serious injuries
0.58
0.04
Light injuries
0.06
0.47
In order to compare the benefits due to reduction of accidents costs after the project
realisation the projection of accidents during the analysis period was performed. The
annual growth factor of 2% was also used for this projection. The use of this
relatively low growth factor is based on the assumption of conservative accidents
increase due to the annual increase of traffic and therefore increased density and
lower operational speeds which result lower accidents probabilities. This low factor
was also preferred in order to avoid overestimation of the benefits from accidents
reduction.
The number of accidents according to their severity used in the present study are the
following:
Average annual
number of accidents
with damages only
27
Average annual
number of fatalities
Average annual
number of serious
injuries
2
Average annual
number of light
injuries
3
22
6.1.2.5 Residual value of the project
The residual value of the project is estimated using the following formula:
Y = (A/X)*(X-v)*f
that is determined by the respective specifications and the bibliography.
In the above formula:
A is the initial value of the project,
X is the duration of the physical life of the project,
v is the period of analysis
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f is a coefficient which is equal to one or smaller than one and which expresses the
estimate for the usefulness of the project after the expiration of its economic life. It
provides significant margins for the estimations.
The duration of the physical life of the various elements of the project is considered
to be equal to:
40 years for earth works and pavement/asphalt works
75 years for the bridges and tunnels
30 years for the road equipment (lighting, vertical signing)
The period of analysis, as it was mentioned above, is considered to be equal to 25
years and the value of the coefficient f is considered to be equal to one for all the
categories. Residual value of the project for the various motorway construction
alternatives (economic prices) is presented in the following table.
Alignment
Alignment 1
Alignment 2
Alternative B
88,692,519
62,611,109
Residual value (€)
Alternative C
93,913,740
66,537,951
Alternative D
96,413,585
72,278,632
6.1.2.6 Installation and operation of toll stations
The case of tolls introduction, as it was mentioned above, was taken into
consideration for the purposes of the financial analysis only. The road pricing system
to be used in the immediate forthcoming years will be open. Through a loan of the
World Bank an EU interoperable system will be introduced, which foresees three
passing lanes per direction: one for cash payment, one for prepayment and one for
transmitters usage.
The construction cost of one toll station of the new toll system according to the
F.N.R.R. is 650,400 € and its annual operational cost for personnel, maintenance etc.
is estimated at 100,000 €/year, while for the existing system it is around 200,000
€/year. The installation of tolls is considered to be the last year of construction. The
revenues from the operation of the toll station begin from year 2011 in the case of
new alignment and from year 2014 in the case of the alignment of the detail design.
Details concerning road pricing in F.Y.R. Macedonia and toll revenues estimations
from the project are described in Chapter 6.3.1.
6.1.3 Consideration of elements which cannot be quantified
6.1.3.1 Consumer surplus
Additionally to the benefits mentioned in the above and were included in the
economic analysis of the project, benefits of consumer surplus are also expected.
The consumer surplus benefits come from the additional traffic after the project
realisation and apply both for new passenger and freight traffic.
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In the present study there are no secure information concerning the private (social)
cost in the F.Y.R. of Macedonia, and therefore consumer surplus benefits are not
quantified and hence were not included in the economic analysis. Higher values of
the economic indices would be expected if those benefits were included in the
economic analysis.
6.1.3.2 Spatial and regional development aspects
The project is situated along the Pan-European Corridor X, backbone of the Southeast Europe Transport Core Network and of the South-eastern Axis, as defined by
the High Level Group of the Directorate General for Energy and Transport of the
European Commission.
The realisation of the project would mean the completion the road Corridor X main
axis in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, given the under-way realisation
of the Tabanovce – Kumanovo motorway section, and will offer efficient
infrastructures with substantial time and vehicle operating costs savings. It would
maximize the benefits along the entire Corridor X by improving the level of service,
ensuring at the same time homogenous infrastructure and operation, facilitation of
international passengers and trade flows, including transit traffic, if also
accompanied with measures for border crossing facilitation.
Therefore, the project would contribute to the better connection of major urban,
industrial and commercial centres along Corridor X, to the improvement of economic
exchange and cooperation between these centres, and also to the strengthening of the
multilateral relations between the countries of the wider region of the Balkans and
their residents.
Furthermore, the project would contribute to regional development and cohesion in
the weaker, “less favoured”, wider area of the Western Balkans, promoting the level
of access of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia from the south with Greece,
and give access to the port of Thessaloniki.
The project should be considered, if it is not already, as a basic component of an
integrated national strategy, which comprises measures and policies for regional and
spatial development.
6.1.3.3 Employment impacts
According to other motorway construction projects, 45% of the economic cost of the
project concerns labour costs and the rest 55% material costs. Furthermore, 30% of
the material costs refer to imported stock (machinery and equipment) and 70% to
domestic material.
Monthly gross average income for specialised and non-specialised work in the F.Y.R.
of Macedonia is 390 € and the respective annual average income is estimated at 4,680
€.
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Based on the above-mentioned assumptions, and after deducting the land acquisition
cost from the economic cost of the project, the number of jobs created directly or
indirectly during the construction period is possible.
During the operational period of the project, costs refer to maintenance material for
periodical pavement, signs and medians replacement and signalling, whilst
operational costs refer to electric lighting and irrigation.
Direct employment
Direct employment is expressed by the number of direct employees during the
construction and operation/ maintenance of the project. Jobs are estimated as
equivalents of labour costs. Differences appearing between the estimations for the
two alignments are due to the different construction and operational periods.
For the construction period direct employment is estimated by the division of 45% of
the economic construction cost by the annual average income, at 13,150 man-years
for Alignment 1 and 11,150 man-years for Alignment 2.
For the construction period of each one of the two alignments, the number of jobs
created are estimated based on the estimated average annual income of the period
respective periods 2008 – 2013 and 2008 – 2010. The estimation of the average annual
income of the period is performed with the projection of current net income with
foreseen growth of 2% (recorded in the last years) at 5,170 €. The number of jobs
created is estimated around to 2,190 jobs in the case of Alignment 1 and around to
3,700 jobs in the case of Alignment 2. The reason that the number of jobs created in
the case of Alignment 2 is higher is the shorter (half) construction period.
For the operation/ maintenance period direct employment is estimated by the
division half of the economic annual maintenance cost by the annual average income,
to 55 jobs for Alignment 1 and 45 jobs for Alignment 2.
Further labour needs are also expected for the periodical maintenance of the
motorway during the period of analysis. Rough estimation of the expected
employment anticipated for such works is 1,100 man-years during the period of
analysis in the case of Alignment 1 and 900 man-years in the case of Alignment 2.
Indirect employment
Apart from the direct employment anticipated during the construction and operation
of the motorway, indirect employment is also expected in terms of increase of labour
force employment at enterprises providing material and equipment during the
construction and operation/ maintenance of the project.
Additional employment is also expected after the operation of the new motorway
and development of the related facilities such as motels, petrol stations, garages etc.
Indirect employment due to the increase of labour force employment at enterprises
providing material and equipment during the construction and operation/
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maintenance of the project, as well as indirect employment due to the creation of
future incomes and the caused trend for reinvestment, consisting additional
employment for the entire life of the project, are not examined in the present study.
6.2
Environmental considerations
There are numerous sensitive ecosystems, biotopes and localities along the existing
axis of the project. In the previous feasibility study, Scetauroute International
estimated their degree of sensitivity according to several criteria. The following
description of the sensitivity of ecosystem, biotopes and localities are borrowed from
the previous feasibility study and they should be taken into high consideration:

River Boshava: It is important because specific algal communities (especially diatom)
communities differentiate this river form the other rivers along the axis of the project.
Irrigation value of lower flow of the river for Demir Kapija is very high, so any kind
of pollution or destruction due to motorway construction/ operation should be
avoided.
River Anska and channels: They have extraordinary value for irrigation purposes in
the Valandovo valley. The riverbed is channelled and many additional channels are
connecting the Vardar and Anska Rivers, creating a sort of a network.
River Petrushka: It is very important for the area around the villages of Miravci and
Miletkovo. It is divided into numerous channels in the lower flow. Beside the
economic value, it has biodiversity importance, since the best plane (platanus
orientalis) community (real forest) is developing on a broad area in the lower flow of
the river. The algal community and presence of rare species is also evident.
Stagnant waters: They are very rich concerning species composition and particularly
in the region of villages Davidovo and Miravci they are represented with well
preserved aquatic communities. Their special importance comes from the fact that
such ecosystems are endangered in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
Alluvial deposits: Their special characteristics arise from their importance in the
Demir Kapija gorge concerning the agricultural use. They are the only areas in the
gorge where agricultural activities are possible.
Sandstone cliffs: They are very interesting from archaeological point of view, but they
are even more important as nesting places for numerous Merops apiaster populations.
Spring tapes and wells: They are extraordinary important since the area of the project
axis is characterised by the long dry period and quantity and quality of drinking
water is not sufficient.
Hot water springs: They are very particular phenomenon and they have extremely
high economic value.
Demir Kapija canyon: It is a protected area since 1960 in the category Monument of
Nature (III category according to the International Union for the Conservation of
Nature and Natural Resources – IUCN). It has extraordinary importance from the
biodiversity point of view.
River Iberliska: It is water gap cut into Demir Kapija Jurassic limestone. It is
protected since 1963 as a category individual plant and animal species outside of
natural reserves.
Bela Voda cave: It is the longest cave in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
(955m).
Plain woodland belts: They are the only high tree sites in the region of Demir Kapija
gorge. They are characteristic for almost all dales and ravines on both slopes along the
Vardar River.
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Plain woodlands and forests: These biotope types are characteristic for the Valandovo
– Gevgelija valley, especially for the lower flow of the rivers and springs in that area.
Beside natural value they have economic value as well.
Willow and plain forests: They have extraordinary importance. They are especially
characteristic for the surrounding of village Grchishte (left side of river Vardar). They
represent the remains from the real river bank vegetation, characteristic for the
undisturbed sites along the river, which are almost absent nowadays.
Dense pseudomaquis biotope type has low economic value particularly for the local
population. It is important because it represents the real appearance of this type of
shrubland community. Many rare species have found suitable habitat in this
ecosystem.
Sparse pseudomaquis has been changed due to the pronounced anthropogenous
influence. It has even less (if any) economic value than the previous mentioned
biotope, but rare species (like Canis aureus, Ophiosaurus apodus etc.) are present.
Tamaris communities: There are many well preserved communities of tamaris along
the lower part of the road, especially along the river Vardar. They are high sensitive
since they are rare types of vegetation, due to their transformation into cultivable
land. They should be protected since their abundance of rare species of fungi, plants
and animals.
Agricultural land: The term refers to high productive land (fields, gardens, meadows)
in the Gevgelija – Valandovo valley. Its extraordinary importance comes from
possibility for making two crops per year.
Poplar plantations: These plantations are well developed and they have great
economic value.
Vineyard plantations are very important part of the local population activity. They
are very characteristic for the area of the road corridor.
Greenhouses represent one of the most important branches of economic activities in
the area from Udovo to Gevgelija.
Eolian soils: The only soils of this type in the Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia are represented next to the Vardar River, between villages Grchishte and
Gjavoto, on the left side of the river. They are covered with Tamaris shrubland
vegetation with different density.
Surrounding of Udovo and Davidovo villages: The high sensitivity of this area arise
form the presence of several valuable localities: archaeological locality “Turski
grobishta” (Turkish graveyard), historic localities – chapel above the village Udovo
and St. Ilija church above the village Davidovo. There is also well developed Tamaris
community with rare species of fungi and swampy area close to the existing bridge on
Vardar River.
Archaeological localities Hisarkale, Dolna Crkva, Mramorot and Manastir are of
extreme importance since they represent remains of antic (Roman or Greek) period.
Some of them contain well preserved objects.
Historic locality Church near the village Gradec and archaeological sites Tufka and
Agova Cheshma – Vetka Crkva are less sensitive (but high) than previous localities,
since they contain less archaeological material and the church is of a more recent
time. Anyway, any direct interference with these objects during construction works
should be strictly forbidden.
The above description is intentionally not presented in the Annex of the current
report. The purpose is to emphasise the sensitivity of the project area and its
environmental importance.
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Furthermore, and according to the Central & Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central
Asia Environmental Information Programme the Demir Kapija gorge is among the
richest ornithological reserves in Europe. The rare birds of pray include: griffin
vulture (Gyps fulvus), Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus), golden eagle
(Aquila chrysaetos), shot-toed eagle (Circaetus gallicus), long-legged buzzard (Buteo
rufinus), and different falcons (Falco peregrinus, Falco naumanni). Other rare and
scientifically important bird species are also present in this area. In the Demir Kapija
gorge, important mammal, reptile, and insect species are present as well as rare and
endemic plant species (Caladonia macedonica, Lilium: heldreichii, Lilium martagon,
Kitaibelia vitifolia etc.).
Up to the day of completion of the present study the results of the assessment of the
environmental impacts for the two motorway alignments have not been available,
nor the costs for environmental mitigation measures, which were not included in the
costs of the projects examined.
In any case, it should be mentioned that according to the designers of Alignment 2
on the west side of Vardar River, this solution is considered more environmentally
friendly compared to Alignment 1. The design of Alignment 2 avoids big cuts and
embankments, sites of archaeological interest and the offence of Bela Voda Cave,
while it has no conflict with a future dam to be constructed in Vardar River.
6.3
Financing aspects
The financing of the project is under negotiation between the governments of the
Former Republic of Macedonia and Greece, through a grant of maximum € 50
million by the Hellenic Plan for the Economic Reconstruction of the Balkans
(Hi.P.E.R.B.).
The financial plan of the project as initially presented by the local government
involves funds from the Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance (IPA) of the
European Community, own funds and the maximum of potential grant by the Greek
government:

HiPERB: 50 mil EUR and budget co-financing for HiPERB (10%) – 5 mil EUR
IPA – 32 mil EUR and budget co-financing for IPA (25%) – 10,6 mil EUR,
i.e. total of 97,6 mil EUR (82 mil EUR donations and 15,6 mil EUR co-financing from
the national budget, according for the rules for awarding of certain donations), as
follows:
Source
IPA 2007-2008
National contribution to IPA 2007-2008
Hi.P.E.R.B.
National contribution to Hi.P.E.R.B.
Total
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
Amount (mo€)
32.0
10.6
50.0
5.0
97.6
82
According to the F.Y.R.O.M. Secretariat for European Affairs, IPA foresees financing
of projects at 80% of Package III (Transport and Environment); that is the case for
IPA 2007-2008, where, out of € 40 million, € 32 million were committed to Corridor X
project as a first priority transport project in the country. Therefore, the rest of the
required funds could be covered by the next IPA Package III in 2009, with potential
of securing a respective amount to that of IPA 2007-2009.
Taking into account the above considerations, the potential maximum financial plan
without loans could be:
Source
IPA 2007-2008
IPA 2009
Subtotal IPA funds
Hi.P.E.R.B.
National contribution to Hi.P.E.R.B.
National contribution to IPA 2007-2008
National contribution to IPA 2009
Subtotal national contribution
Total
Amount (mo€)
32.0
32.0
64.0
50.0
5.0
10.6
10.6
26.2
140.2
Therefore, the above financial plan could be sufficient for the realization of the
project on the west bank of River Vardar, without need of loans.
In line with the afore-stated and the initial analysis of the amount of finances needed
for the project, in the case of need for additional finances, it is suggested by the F.Y.R.
of Macedonia government that the financial construction would be completed with a
loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB), as a financial institution for suitable
for this purpose (offering the most compatible conditions for procurement and other
conditions with the conditions of the afore-mentioned donations).
6.3.1
Toll revenues
Tolls in the F.Y.R. of Macedonia are collected on the motorways of the country.
According to the F.N.R.R. a new system for automatic collection of tolls will be
introduced in toll booths on the highways across the country in 2007. The project is
supported by the World Bank and the USAID and is foreseen to become fully
operational in early 2008.
Three lanes will operate per direction at the toll booths. One lane will be for cash
payments, another for pay cards and the last for transmitters.
According to the F.N.R.R. experts, the cost of construction of a toll booth is € 650,400
and the annual operation and maintenance cost is € 100,000 (reduced by 50%
compared to existing costs after the introduction of the new toll system).
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Vehicle classification
Vehicle classification is performed according to the number of axles and the vehicle
height on the first axle into four classes:
Category I
height below 1.7m,
length less than 5.5m:
passenger cars and
motorcycles
Category II
height below 3.3m,
length less than 9.5m:
passenger cars with
trailers, jeeps, mini
buses and light trucks
Category III
height below 4.2m,
length less than
10.5m: vehicles with
trailers, trucks with 3
axles and midi buses
Category IV
height over 4.2m,
length more than
10.5m: tractors with
more than 3 axles and
buses
Toll rates applied are the same for domestic and foreign registered vehicles. The
following table details the payments in Denars at the four toll stations along Corridor
X in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia:
Road section
Station
name
Vehicle
Category
I
II
III
IV
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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Kumanovo – Miladinovci
Petrovec – Veles
Veles – Gradsko
Romanovci
Sopot
Otovica
Stobi
50
75
145
290
80
115
230
460
80
115
230
460
60
90
175
345
84
The toll rates used in the present study for the estimation of the annual cash flows
are estimated on the basis of charge of the above table. More specifically, the charges
per kilometre were calculated for the tolled motorways, presented in the following
table:
Length
(km)
Kumanovo - Miladinovci
21.782
Veles - Petrovec
34.136
Veles - Gradsko
25.139
Total 81.057
Average charges
Section
Charges per kilometre (€)
I
II
III
0.038
0.056
0.109
0.038
0.055
0.110
0.039
0.059
0.114
IV
0.218
0.220
0.224
0.038
0.221
0.056
0.111
On the basis of charging 0.04 €/km for vehicles of category I, using the existing ratios
between charges of category I and the rest of the categories, the following charges are
calculated:
Vehicle Category
I
II
III
IV
Road pricing
0.04 €/km
0.06 €/km
0.12 €/km
0.23 €/km
As a conclusion, it can be expected that traffic growth and the application of the
above toll rates will ensure high revenues during the project lifetime, taking into
consideration that apart from the toll station at Demir Kapija, another toll station is
foreseen to be established, probably at Gevgelija. Therefore, revenues are expected to
be more than double, considering the higher traffic as moving close to the Greek
border, especially after Prdejci (south of Smokvica).
Finally, it should be mentioned once more, that the toll revenues are not included in
the economic analysis of the project, since it is considered that they are compensated
by their inclusion also in the generalised (operational) cost as user charge.
6.3.2
Cash flow
The cash flow diagram for each is formulated for each of the two alternative
alignments examined, taking into account the following parameters in various time
horizons until 2032:

Annual construction costs
Costs of tolls installation
Annual operational and maintenance costs
Annual toll station operation and maintenance cost
Annual revenues from tolls collection
Periodical maintenance/ rehabilitation after 15 years of start of operation
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85
Cash flow diagramme
15
10
5
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
-5
2008
Million euros
0
-10
-15
Costs
-20
Revenues
-25
Cash flow
-30
Year
Graph 6.1: Cash flow diagram Alignment 1
Cash flow diagramme
20
10
Million euros
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
-10
2008
0
-20
-30
-40
Costs
Revenues
-50
Cash flow
-60
Year
Graph 6.2: Cash flow diagram Alignment 2
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86
In the Cash flow diagrams the reduction in the columns of the years 2025 and 2028
are due to the periodical maintenance costs. Also, the cash flow does not include
Hi.P.E.R.B. financial aid and IPA funds.
It can be commented that toll revenues in the analysis period ensure the cover of the
annual maintenance and operational expenses and the costs for periodical
maintenance of the motorway. Furthermore, as previously mentioned, the
introduction of a second toll station in the southern section between Gevgelija and
Smokvica, will ensure high (more than double) revenues.
6.4
Results of the economic analysis
The results of the economic analysis of the project are presented in Annex B of the
present technical report.
The discount rate (the rate by which the costs and benefits are reduced or discounted
each year when estimating the net present value [19] used in the present study in
order to estimate the NPV is considered to be 8%. It is considered that this value
diachronically express the opportunity cost of capital (the minimum rate of return
required above which it is worthwhile, and below which is not worthwhile investing
capital in a project. This is defined by the rate of return of the best project which
could be financed if, but only if, the project does not proceed. Hence, the phrase
opportunity cost of capital [19] in the F.Y.R. of Macedonia. The opportunity cost of
capital is considered to be equal to the average bank long term interest rate return
plus the inflation.
The inflation rates in the period 1999 – 2006 as reported by the National Bank of
F.Y.R. of Macedonia are the following:
Period
Inflation rates
1999
-1.0%
2000
6.0%
2001
5.0%
2002
2.0%
2003
1.2%
2004
-0.4%
2005
0.5%
2006
2.9%*
Source: National Bank of F.Y.R. of Macedonia (April 2006)
* Estimation
The target for the year 2006 was for inflation to be retained at 1.8%.
As for deposit interest rates, the National Bank of F.Y.R. of Macedonia reports that
the nominal deposit interest rates in 2005 was between 5 – 5.5%, while in 2006,
according to the U.S.A. embassy in Skopje [20], it was 4.6% (August 2006).
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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87
It must be stressed at this point that the project evaluation should not be focused so
much in the NPV but in the efficiency of the project based on the IRR (from where
concrete results can be derived concerning the investment attractiveness).
Additionally to the use of the discount rate of 8%, the projects in the present study
are examined also with the use of other, lower discount rates of 2%, 4%, and 6%, in
order to cover the case of improvement of the economy of the Former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia, as well as to examine the impact of lower discount rates to
the results of the economic analysis.
In the following tables, the results of the economic evaluation of the project are
summarised:
Alignment 1
Alternative A (do minimum)
Alternative B
Alternative C
Alternative D
IRR
(%)
Not
defined
2.33%
2.05%
1.91%
B/C
(2%)
B/C
(4%)
B/C
(6%)
B/C
(8%)
0.19
0.15
0.12
0.10
1.09
1.01
0.98
0.71
0.66
0.64
0.52
0.48
0.47
0.40
0.37
0.36
IRR
(%)
Not
defined
7.06%
6.49%
5.87%
B/C
(2%)
B/C
(4%)
B/C
(6%)
B/C
(8%)
0.19
0.15
0.12
0.10
2.31
2.15
1.98
1.54
1.44
1.32
1.14
1.06
0.98
0.90
0.84
0.77
Alignment 2
Alternative A (do minimum)
Alternative B
Alternative C
Alternative D
The costs and benefits breakdown of the project, indicatively for the Alternative D,
are presented in the following graphs for each of the two alignments. It can be
commented that in the case of Alignment 1 the percentage of the residual value
appears to be the most important benefit of the project (40%), since all other benefits
are lower (time savings, vehicle operational costs reduction), due to the small
reduction in the length of the proposed alignment compared to that of the existing
road. On the contrary, in the case of Alignment 2, where the length of the proposed
motorway is much shorter than the existing road, the benefits due to time savings
and due to vehicle operational costs reduction are substantial and therefore their
shares in the benefits breakdown are higher, reducing the residual value’s share at
24%.
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Alignment 1
Operational cost
16%
Construction cost
84%
Graph 6.3: Costs breakdown of the project (Alignment 1 – Alternative D)
Benefits from
vehicle
operational cost
reduction
34%
Benefits from
time savings
23%
Residual value
40%
Benefits from
accidents
reduction
3%
Graph 6.4: Benefits breakdown of the project (Alignment 1 – Alternative D)
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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89
Alignment 2
Operational cost
18%
Construction cost
82%
Graph 6.5: Costs breakdown of the project (Alignment 2 – Alternative D)
Benefits from
vehicle
operational cost
reduction
46%
Residual value
24%
Benefits from
accidents
reduction
2%
Benefits from
time savings
28%
Graph 6.6: Benefits breakdown of the project (Alignment 2 – Alternative D)
6.5
Sensitivity analysis – Comparative evaluation of alternatives and ranking
From the comparison of the results of the economic analysis of the alternatives
examined within the study, the lowest cost alternative of motorway construction is
ranked first. Apparently, the variations between the results of the three motorway
construction alternatives are marginal due to the fact that in the case of the lower
cost alternatives B and C the benefits are decreased as result of the speed reduction.
Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis can be conducted of any problem to explore the
effects of deviation from the original problem conditions. Since most engineering
economic problems extend over a period of years, future cash flows are necessarily
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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90
estimated. These estimations may be quite reliable, but it is often enlightening to
observe how the attractiveness of alternatives varies as the initial estimates are
altered [13].
The results that are presented in the sensitivity analysis in the framework of the
present study were based on a number of assumptions concerning the necessary
parameters. The elasticity of results concerning changes (marginal or not) in the
values of basic parameters like the cost of the investment and the operational
expenses and revenues is examined through the sensitivity analysis. Accordingly the
undertaken risk concerning the specific investment is evaluated with the aid of the
sensitivity analysis.
The parameters that are examined in the sensitivity analysis include:
The construction cost of the project
The traffic flows
The operational cost of the project
The discount rates used in the sensitivity analysis include 8%, 6%, 4% and 2%. The
alterations of the basic parameters, which are examined in the framework of the
sensitivity analysis, are as follows:
Alterations of the constructional cost by ±10%
Alterations of traffic volumes (demand) by ± 10% and by ± 20%
Alterations of the operational cost (annual and periodical maintenance) by ±10%
The following tables present the results of the sensitivity analysis (actually the
impact to IRR and the Net Present Value) of the project for the Do minimum
alternative and for the three motorway alternatives of each motorway alignment.
Alternative A
Basic scenario
Negatives
Increase of construction cost by 10%
Increase of operational cost by 10%
Reduction of traffic volumes by 10%
Positives
Reduction of construction cost by 10%
Reduction of operational cost by 10%
Increase of traffic volumes by 10%
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
2%
-16,380,539
NPV (€)
4%
6%
-18,217,989 -19,168,114
8%
-19,589,010
-18,880,096
-17,205,014
-17,595,692
-18,810,845
-20,646,139
-18,850,740
-19,167,336
-20,116,683
-21,528,416
-19,661,395
-19,924,908
-20,681,702
-21,884,778
-19,979,461
-20,203,537
-20,818,064
-
-13,880,983
-15,556,065
-15,165,387
-13,950,234
-15,789,839
-17,585,239
-17,268,642
-16,319,295
-16,807,812
-18,674,833
-18,411,320
-17,654,525
-17,293,243
-19,198,560
-18,974,484
-18,359,957
-
IRR
-
91
Alignment 1
Alternative B
Basic scenario
Negatives
Positives
NPV (€)
4%
6%
-27,013,094 -47,430,231
8%
-59,456,895
2.33%
-6,578,438
5,219,976
-3,569,884
-14,064,771
-39,662,144
-28,217,107
-34,837,842
-42,662,589
-59,306,038
-48,293,649
-53,359,909
-59,289,586
-70,631,005
-60,085,666
-64,019,017
-68,581,139
1.70%
2.25%
1.83%
1.30%
20,428,446
8,630,032
17,419,892
27,914,779
-14,364,044
-25,809,081
-19,188,346
-11,363,599
-35,554,425
-46,566,814
-41,500,554
-35,570,877
-48,282,785
-58,828,124
-54,894,774
-50,332,652
3.05%
2.42%
2.83%
3.32%
NPV (€)
4%
6%
-33,220,670 -53,644,360
8%
-65,523,614
2.05%
-13,243,110
-837,556
-9,476,528
-19,971,416
-46,579,784
-34,531,233
-41,045,418
-48,870,165
-66,186,824
-54,584,186
-59,574,037
-65,503,715
-77,324,992
-66,208,029
-70,085,736
-74,647,858
1.42%
1.96%
1.56%
1.06%
15,279,828
2,874,275
11,513,247
22,008,135
-19,861,556
-31,910,108
-25,395,922
-17,571,175
-41,101,896
-52,704,534
-47,714,682
-41,785,005
-53,722,237
-64,839,200
-60,961,493
-56,399,371
2.75%
2.13%
2.52%
2.99%
2%
-2,072,072
NPV (€)
4%
6%
-36,349,902 -56,714,117
8%
-68,486,440
1.91%
-16,708,102
-4,154,319
-12,706,436
-23,340,800
-50,059,878
-37,820,289
-44,278,640
-52,207,377
-69,585,995
-57,768,556
-62,722,599
-68,731,081
-80,597,767
-69,254,320
-73,109,192
-77,731,944
1.29%
1.81%
1.42%
0.92%
12,563,958
10,174
8,562,291
19,196,655
-22,639,926
-34,879,515
-28,421,164
-20,492,426
-43,842,239
-55,659,678
-50,705,635
-44,697,152
-56,375,113
-67,718,561
-63,863,688
-59,240,937
2.60%
2.00%
2.38%
2.85%
2%
6,925,004
IRR
Alternative C
Basic scenario
Negatives
Positives
2%
1,018,359
IRR
Alternative D
Basic scenario
Negatives
Positives
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IRR
92
Alignment 2
Alternative B
Basic scenario
Negatives
Positives
2%
85,645,948
NPV (€)
4%
6%
41,109,817
11,501,944
8%
-8,442,372
7.06%
75,285,675
84,080,368
68,971,840
52,297,733
31,160,148
39,948,168
28,236,165
15,362,513
1,937,165
10,626,760
1,370,617
-8,760,711
-17,645,861
-9,111,840
-16,556,858
-24,671,343
6.17%
6.98%
6.13%
5.17%
96,006,221
87,211,528
102,320,056
118,994,163
51,059,486
42,271,466
53,983,469
66,857,121
21,066,724
12,377,128
21,633,272
31,764,599
761,117
-7,772,904
-327,887
7,786,599
8.09%
7.13%
7.96%
8.85%
IRR
Alternative C
Basic scenario
Negatives
Positives
2%
80,091,942
NPV (€)
4%
6%
35,252,837
5,584,182
8%
-14,290,808
6.49%
69,075,463
78,387,815
63,417,835
46,743,727
24,672,968
33,988,387
22,379,185
9,505,533
-4,586,419
4,631,548
-4,547,146
-14,678,473
-24,077,234
-15,019,521
-22,405,293
-30,519,779
5.63%
6.40%
5.60%
4.69%
91,108,422
81,796,070
96,766,050
113,440,157
45,832,706
36,517,286
48,126,489
61,000,141
15,754,782
6,536,816
15,715,509
25,846,837
-4,504,381
-13,562,095
-6,176,322
1,938,163
7.48%
6.57%
7.35%
8.20%
2%
74,552,898
NPV (€)
4%
6%
28,638,824
-1,573,624
8%
-21,681,005
5.87%
62,546,302
72,599,386
57,543,106
40,533,314
17,108,079
27,189,333
15,505,999
2,373,173
-12,658,317
-2,665,667
-11,908,916
-22,244,208
-32,346,996
-22,516,358
-29,958,851
-38,236,698
5.05%
5.78%
5.03%
4.16%
86,559,494
76,506,410
91,562,690
108,572,482
40,169,569
30,088,315
41,771,649
54,904,475
9,511,069
-481,580
8,761,669
19,096,961
-11,015,014
-20,845,651
-13,403,158
-5,125,311
6.83%
5.96%
6.70%
7.51%
IRR
Alternative D
Basic scenario
Negatives
Positives
IRR
Based on the above results and sensitivity tests the following conclusions concerning
the project are formulated.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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93
6.6
Conclusions concerning the economic analysis
As it was mentioned before, the calculation of the NPV requires the selection of a
price for the discount rate, which is considered equal to the opportunity cost of
capital (average long term interest rate plus the inflation). The inflation in the F.Y.R.
of Macedonia is low; 0.5% in 2005 and 2.9% (est.) in 2006. The annual average interest
rate is in the area of 5.0%. Therefore, the opportunity cost of capital in the F.Y.R. of
Macedonia is considered to be around 8%. This is the reason that the NPV was
calculated using the lower values for the discount rate of 6%, 4% and 2%.
In a country where the opportunity cost of capital is in the area of 2% - 4% it results,
according to the European Investment Bank and the World Bank, that:

for IRR < 8%, a transport project is characterized by low probability of
financing
for IRR > 12%, a transport project is characterized by high probability of
financing
for IRR 8% - 12%, a transport project has probabilities of financing. However,
a more analytic approach of various parameters is required.
Despite the fact that the value of the IRR is relatively low and the NPV is not
positive, the project is considered as attractive taking into account the national and
international importance of the project. In the case where the opportunity cost of
capital in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia would be smaller, then the
specific IRR could characterize the investment as attractive enough.
The differences in the values of IRR between the alternatives B, C and D are very
small. This happens mainly due to the fact that there is not an important reduction of
cost between the alternatives. That especially applies in the case of Alignment 1,
where lower standards are already used in Alternative D for the biggest part of the
section under study (19.9km at the “gorge”), that allows marginal reduction of
construction costs.
Despite the fact that Alternative B of Alignment 2 is the most “attractive” in terms of
IRR, the difference with the economic results of Alternatives C and D are not
significantly better. Consequently, Alternative D can be considered as the most
prevailing one (among the three of them) because it refers to better geometrical and
functional characteristics of the under study road project.
It seems that parameters like the construction cost and the traffic volumes have an
important impact to the final results (IRR, NPV) as it resulted from the sensitivity
analysis. On the contrary, it seems that operational and maintenance costs do not
particularly affect the IRR and NPV. In the case where the construction cost could be
reduced without any impact to the quality of the project, the investment will become
more attractive in terms of the IRR and the NPV.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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94
7.
RECOMMENDATIONS
In the authors’ view the financing and realisation of the project is recommended,
even though the results are considered relatively low, due to the high values of the
discount rate and not due to the project itself and its parameters.
It must be mentioned that benefits like the consumer surplus, the quality of the trip
as perceived by the users, the effect to the regional development (e.g., reduction of
unemployment in the long term), the general improvement of the environment, the
improvement of competitiveness at national level etc., were not taken into
consideration in the framework of the economic analysis.
However, the results of the environmental impact assessment study, as well as the
costs of environmental mitigation measures, which could result an increase in the
cost, are not yet available. Hence, it is considered that the environmental criterion is
determinative for the project realisation.
Apart from the economic results of the present feasibility study, the final decision for
the project’s realisation should consider other important parameters, of neither
economic nor technical nature:
First of all, this project is situated along the backbone of the South-east Europe
Transport Core Network and its implementation is in full alignment with the
recently established South-eastern Axis, as defined by the High Level Group of the
Directorate General for Energy and Transport of the European Commission, even not
being a “soft” low-cost measure of infrastructure upgrade.
The project would complete the road Corridor X main axis in the F.Y.R. of
Macedonia, given the under-way realisation of the Tabanovce – Kumanovo
motorway section, projects that will offer efficient infrastructures with substantial
time and vehicle operating costs savings.
Hence, the project would maximize the benefits along the entire Corridor X by
improving the level of service along the Corridor, ensuring at the same time
homogenous infrastructure and operation, facilitation of international passengers
and trade flows, including transit traffic, if also accompanied with measures for
border crossing facilitation.
Taking into consideration the already constructed motorway sections between
Negotino and Demir Kapija as well as of the one between Smokvica and the Greek
border, the project would maximise the benefits of the above made investments, also
in terms of revenues for the local government, since the use of the aforementioned
new infrastructures is not yet charged.
Finally, the project would contribute to regional development and cohesion in the
weaker, “less favoured”, wider area of the Western Balkans, promoting the level of
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
95
access of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia in the south with Greece,
ensuring the country’s access to the sea via the port of Thessaloniki.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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96
BACKGROUND DOCUMENTS – REFERENCES
1. Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Polytechnic School, Faculty of Rural and
Surveying Engineering, Department of Transportation & Hydraulic
Engineering: Passenger and freight flows forecasting for the documentation
of the priorities and the needs for development of Pan-European Corridor X.
Thessaloniki, August 2003.
Engineering: Report of experts’ autopsy at the sections Tabanovce –
Kumanovo and Demir Kapija – Smokvica of Pan-European Road Corridor X
in F.Y.R.O.M., July 2006.
Engineering: Support to international cooperation for development of PanEuropean Corridor X (Technical Secretariat of the Steering Committee),
Interim Report. Thessaloniki, July 2006.
4. Balkan Konsalting DOOEL: Feasibility study National Road M-1 (E-75)
Motorway Tabanovce – Kumanovo, January 2007.
5. COWI: Regional Balkans Infrastructure Study (REBIS). Final Report, July
2003.
6. Despontin, de Brucker, Coeck, Verbeke: The economic evaluation of road
safety in E.U. DG VII, Luxemburg, 1998.
7. Egnatia Odos S.A.: Feasibility study for the upgrading of the road section
Grabovnica (Lescovac) – Presevo (Serbian – F.Y.R.O.M. borders) of PanEuropean Corridor X, 2006.
8. European Commission – Eurostat: Statistical Yearbook on candidate and
South-east European countries, 2002.
9. Fund for National and Regional Roads of F.Y.R. Macedonia: Traffic Data,
December 2006.
10. Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2000.
11. Hi.P.E.R.B. (Unofficial document) Application for Assistance project
Highway E-75 Demir Kapija – Gevgelija, 2002.
12. Hi.P.E.R.B. (Unofficial document) Application for Assistance project
Highway E-75 Demir Kapija – Smokvica, 2004.
13. James L. Riggs, David D. Bedworth, Sabah U. Randhawa: Engineering
Economics, 4th Edition, McGRAW-HILL International Editions, Industrial
Engineering Series, 1998.
14. Louis Berger S.A.: Transport Infrastructure Regional Study (TIRS) in the
Balkans. Final Report, January 2002.
15. Ministry of Environment, Physical Planning and Public Works: Decision of
the Direction for the Study of Highway Projects, DMEO/a/O/1885/8-7-1996.
16. National Bank of FYROM: Annual Report 2005, April 2006.
17. Scetauroute International: PHARE CBC Programme MA-96061: E-75 Road
Section Demir Kapija – Gevgelija, Feasibility Study, Final Report, 1999.
18. Scetauroute International: PHARE CBC Programme MA-96061: E-75 Road
Section Demir Kapija – Gevgelija, Detailed Design, 2000.
19. Tim Powell: The Principles of Transport Economics, PTRC, 2001.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
97
20. United States of America Embassy in Skopje: F.Y.R.O.M. Economy at a
glance, October 2006.
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
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98
ANNEXES
A. Issues discussed at the technical meeting in Skopje (01.03.2007)
B. Results of the economic analysis
- Alternative A
- Alignment 1 (Alternatives B, C, D)
- Alignment 2 (Alternatives B, C, D)
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
99
ANNEX A
ANNEX A - Issues discussed at the technical meeting in Skopje
(01.03.2007)
1. Existing situation (physical – operational characteristics)
Design and operational speeds (per subsection and per vehicle category)
Traffic composition (vehicle categories: passenger vehicles, buses, light
trucks, medium trucks and articulated trucks)
Percentage of international traffic
Rehabilitation economic cost (last rehabilitation – next rehabilitation)
Accidents data
Unit cost of accidents (for death, severe injury, light injury, damage only)
2. Future motorway (for both alternative alignments)
Construction economic cost in current prices
Cost breakdown per type of works (according to the table included in
Hi.P.E.R.B. application form)
Period of construction
Cost annual allocation during the construction period
First year of economic analysis (2008)
Unit costs for traffic lanes, emergency lanes, earthworks, land acquisition,
tunnels, bridges (for the estimation of cost savings of narrower cross sections)
Annual maintenance and operational economic cost (during operation phase)
Design speeds
Alignment
Number of toll booths along the new motorway section
Cost of construction and annual operation of toll installations
Toll system and rates per vehicle category. Planned revision
Facilities along the new motorway
Reduction of accidents after motorway construction
3. Economic parameters:
Inflation rates
GDP and GPD annual growth estimation
Discount rate
Exchange rate of denar to euro and USD
Average monthly salary (for specialised and non-specialised work)
Current fuel prices for various types of fuels (with and without taxes)
Fuel consumption
Framework (terms) of loans from IFIs (EBRD, EIB etc.), which include aspects
as the following: duration, payback terms, percentage of loan etc.
4. Environmental impacts
Environmental Impacts Assessment update (for Scetauroute alternative)
Environmental Impacts mitigation measures and their cost
Considerations of Environmental Impacts for alternative motorway
alignment
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
ANNEX B
ANNEX B – Results of the economic analysis
Alternative A
PROJECT: DEMIR KAPIJA - UDOVO - SMOKVICA
Α. CONSTRUCTION ELEMENTS
Length (km, new situation)
Mean operational speed (km/h, exisitng situation)
Running time (min, existing situation)
Design speed (km/h, new situation)
Mean operational speed (Km/h, new situation)
Running time (min, new situation)
Β. TRAFFIC VOLUMES (AVERAGE IN THE OPERATIONAL PERIOD)
35.83
59
36.38
74
65
33.07
Private cars (P.C.)
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy trucks
Articulated trucks
Trucks total (reduced)
Buses
AADT (PCUs/day)
5,341
277
277
416
486
3,038
139
9,572
C. GENERAL ELEMENTS OF THE PROJECT
Period of analysis (years)
25
Construction cost (€)
25,747,912
7,724,373
Operational costs (€/year, maintenance etc.)
308,961
1st periodical maintenance cost during the analysis period (€)
0
2nd periodical maintenance cost during the analysis period (€)
4,119,656
D. BENEFITS
D1. BENEFITS FROM RUNNING TIMES REDUCTION (HUMAN TIME)
Reduction of running time (min)
3.31
Public cars occupancy (passengers/ vehicle)
2.0
Trucks occupancy (passengers/ vehicle)
1.2
Buses occupancy (passengers/ vehicle)
45.0
Value of working time (€/ person/ hour)
3.40
Value of travelling time from/to work (€/ person/ hour)
1.70
Value of time for other purposes (€/ person/ hour)
0.85
Working days per month
25
Passengers/ day for work purposes
5,799
Passengers/ day from/ to work
8,865
Passengers/ day for other purposes
4,009
Benefits for passengers for work purposes (€ / year)
346,464
Benefits for passengers from/to work (€ / year)
269,328
Benefits for passengers for other purposes (€ / year)
60,998
Benefits subtotal 1
676,790
D2. BENEFITS FROM THE VEHICLES OPERATING COST REDUCTION (FUELS, OPERATING TIME,
TRAVELLING DISTANCE )
Length (km, existing situation)
35.834
Length reduction (km)
0.000
Private cars fuel savings (lt/km/vehicle)
0.010
Heavy cars fuel savings (lt/km/vehicle)
0.020
Private cars fuel cost (€/lt)
0.97
Heavy cars fuel cost (€/lt)
0.81
Priavate cars operation unit value - time (€/hour/vehicle)
0.08
Heavy vehicles operation unit value - time (€/hour/vehicle)
0.09
Private cars & heavy vehicles operation unit value - distance (€/km/vehicle)
0.03
Benefits for private cars from fuel savings (€ / year)
0
Benefits for heavy vehicles from fuel savings (€ / year)
0
Benefits for private cars from operation reduction (€ / year)
8,596
Benefits for heavy vehicles from operation reduction (€ / year)
5,752
Benefits for private cars & heavy vehicles from distance reduction (€ / year)
0
Benefits subtotal 2
14,349
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
ANNEX B
D3. BENEFITS FROM ACCIDENTS REDUCTION
Average traffic volumes during the operational period WITHOUT project (AADT in PCUs/day)
Annual vehicle-kilometres WITHOUT project (PCUs*year)
Fatalities/ year
Severe injuries/ year
Light injuries/ year
Damages/ year
Annual vehicle-kilometres WITH project (PCUs*year)
Fatalities/ year (vehicle-kilometres based estimation)
Severe injuries/ year (vehicle-kilometres based estimation)
Light injuries/ year (vehicle-kilometres based estimation)
Damages/ year (vehicle-kilometres based estimation)
Accidents reduction factor
Reduction of fatalities/ year
Reduction of severe injuries/ year
Reduction of light injuries/ year
Reduction of damages/ year
Benefits from fatalities reduction (€/ year)
Benefits from severe injuries reduction (€/ year)
Benefits from light injuries reduction (€/ year)
Benefits from damages reduction (€/ year)
Benefits subtotal 3
SOCIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS RESULTS
Benefits/ Cost ratio (8%)
Net Present Value (NPV) in €, discount rate 8%
Internal Rare of Return (IRR)
SENSITIVITY TESTS INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR)
10% increase in construction costs
10% decrease in construction costs
10% increase in operational costs
10% decrease in operational costs
10% increase in traffic
10% decrease in traffic
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
9,572
35.83
125,197,564
2.00
3.00
22.00
27.00
125,197,564
2.00
3.00
22.00
27.00
0%
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0
0
0
0.10
0.12
0.15
0.19
-19,589,010
-19,168,114
-18,217,989
-16,380,539
Not defined
Not defined
Not defined
Not defined
Not defined
Not defined
Not defined
Not defined
Not defined
ANNEX B
Alignment 1 – Alternative B
32.15
59
36.38
80-100
81
23.76
Private cars (P.C.)
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy trucks
Articulated trucks
Buses
AADT (PCUs/day)
5,942
309
309
463
540
3,380
154
10,650
25
144,501,616
88,692,519
608,124
13,572,227
0
D. BENEFITS
12.62
2.0
1.2
45.0
3.40
1.70
0.85
25
6,452
9,863
4,461
1,471,327
1,143,754
259,038
Benefits subtotal 1
2,874,118
35.834
3.684
0.010
0.020
0.97
0.81
0.08
0.09
0.03
1,296,450
2,019,320
36,506
24,428
938,335
Benefits subtotal 2
4,315,040
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
ANNEX B
Fatalities/ year
Damages/ year
Benefits subtotal 3
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
10,650
35.83
139,293,869
2.00
3.00
22.00
27.00
124,973,430
1.79
2.69
19.74
24.22
40%
0.72
1.08
7.90
9.69
227,499
41,851
69,324
10,502
349,176
0.40
0.52
0.71
1.09
-59,456,895
-47,430,231
-27,013,094
6,925,004
2.33%
1.70%
3.05%
2.25%
2.42%
2.83%
1.83%
3.32%
1.30%
ANNEX B
Alignment 1 – Alternative C
PROJECT: DEMIR KAPIJA - UDOVO - SMOKVICA (ALIGNMENT 1)
32.15
59
36.38
80-110
81
23.76
Private cars (P.C.)
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy trucks
Articulated trucks
Buses
AADT (PCUs/day)
5,942
309
309
463
540
3,380
154
10,650
25
152,613,331
93,913,740
661,941
14,773,309
0
D. BENEFITS
12.62
2.0
1.2
45.0
3.40
1.70
0.85
25
6,452
9,863
4,461
1,471,327
1,143,754
259,038
Benefits subtotal 1
2,874,118
35.834
3.684
0.010
0.020
0.97
0.81
0.08
0.09
0.03
1,296,450
2,019,320
36,506
24,428
938,335
Benefits subtotal 2
4,315,040
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
ANNEX B
Fatalities/ year
Damages/ year
Benefits subtotal 3
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
10,650
35.83
139,293,869
2.00
3.00
22.00
27.00
124,973,430
1.79
2.69
19.74
24.22
40%
0.72
1.08
7.90
9.69
227,499
41,851
69,324
10,502
349,176
0.37
0.48
0.66
1.01
-65,523,614
-53,644,360
-33,220,670
1,018,359
2.05%
1.42%
2.75%
1.96%
2.13%
2.52%
1.56%
2.99%
1.06%
ANNEX B
Alignment 1 – Alternative D
PROJECT: DEMIR KAPIJA - UDOVO - SMOKVICA (ALIGNMENT 1)
32.15
59
36.38
80-120
83
23.33
Private cars (P.C.)
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy trucks
Articulated trucks
Buses
AADT (PCUs/day)
5,942
309
309
463
540
3,380
154
10,650
25
156,621,546
96,413,585
742,665
16,574,933
0
D. BENEFITS
13.05
2.0
1.2
45.0
3.40
1.70
0.85
25
6,452
9,863
4,461
1,521,548
1,182,794
267,880
Benefits subtotal 1
2,972,222
35.834
3.684
0.010
0.020
0.97
0.81
0.08
0.09
0.03
1,296,450
2,019,320
37,752
25,262
938,335
Benefits subtotal 2
4,317,120
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
ANNEX B
Fatalities/ year
Damages/ year
Benefits subtotal 3
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
10,650
35.83
139,293,869
2.00
3.00
22.00
27.00
124,973,430
1.79
2.69
19.74
24.22
40%
0.72
1.08
7.90
9.69
227,499
41,851
69,324
10,502
349,176
0.36
0.47
0.64
0.98
-68,486,440
-56,714,117
-36,349,902
-2,072,072
1.91%
1.29%
2.60%
1.81%
2.00%
2.38%
1.42%
2.85%
0.92%
ANNEX B
Alignment 2 – Alternative B
PROJECT: DEMIR KAPIJA - SMOKVICA (ALIGNMENT 2)
28.05
59
36.38
110
90
18.70
Private cars (P.C.)
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy trucks
Articulated trucks
Buses
AADT (PCUs/day)
4,730
286
286
429
589
3,398
153
9,389
25
107,989,433
62,611,109
494,555
11,037,576
0
D. BENEFITS
17.68
2.0
1.2
45.0
3.40
1.70
0.85
25
5,565
8,738
3,960
1,791,993
1,431,864
324,962
Benefits subtotal 1
3,548,819
35.834
7.784
0.010
0.020
0.97
0.81
0.08
0.09
0.03
1,512,735
3,449,608
40,702
34,377
1,129,868
Benefits subtotal 2
6,167,289
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
ANNEX B
Fatalities/ year
Damages/ year
Benefits subtotal 3
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
9,389
35.83
122,808,017
2.00
3.00
22.00
27.00
96,131,185
1.57
2.35
17.22
21.13
40%
0.63
0.94
6.89
8.45
198,487
36,514
60,483
9,162
304,646
0.90
1.14
1.54
2.31
-8,442,372
11,501,944
41,109,817
85,645,948
7.06%
6.17%
8.09%
6.98%
7.13%
7.96%
6.13%
8.85%
5.17%
ANNEX B
Alignment 2 – Alternative C
28.05
59
36.38
110
90
18.70
Private cars (P.C.)
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy trucks
Articulated trucks
Buses
AADT (PCUs/day)
4,730
286
286
429
589
3,398
153
9,389
25
114,829,350
66,537,951
538,321
12,014,352
0
D. BENEFITS
17.68
2.0
1.2
45.0
3.40
1.70
0.85
25
5,565
8,738
3,960
1,791,993
1,431,864
324,962
Benefits subtotal 1
3,548,819
35.834
7.784
0.010
0.020
0.97
0.81
0.08
0.09
0.03
1,512,735
3,449,608
40,702
34,377
1,129,868
Benefits subtotal 2
6,167,289
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
ANNEX B
Fatalities/ year
Damages/ year
Benefits subtotal 3
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
9,389
35.83
122,808,017
2.00
3.00
22.00
27.00
96,131,185
1.57
2.35
17.22
21.13
40%
0.63
0.94
6.89
8.45
198,487
36,514
60,483
9,162
304,646
0.84
1.06
1.44
2.15
-14,290,808
5,584,182
35,252,837
80,091,942
6.49%
5.63%
7.48%
6.40%
6.57%
7.35%
5.60%
8.20%
4.69%
ANNEX B
Alignment 2 – Alternative D
28.05
59
36.38
120
95
17.72
Private cars (P.C.)
Light trucks
Medium trucks
Heavy trucks
Articulated trucks
Buses
AADT (PCUs/day)
4,730
286
286
429
589
3,398
153
9,389
25
125,149,748
72,278,632
617,100
13,772,550
0
D. BENEFITS
18.66
2.0
1.2
45.0
3.40
1.70
0.85
25
5,565
8,738
3,960
1,891,751
1,511,575
343,052
Benefits subtotal 1
3,746,378
35.834
7.784
0.010
0.020
0.97
0.81
0.08
0.09
0.03
1,512,735
3,449,608
42,967
36,290
1,129,868
Benefits subtotal 2
6,171,468
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
ANNEX B
Fatalities/ year
Damages/ year
Benefits subtotal 3
EGNATIA ODOS S.A.
APRIL 2007
9,389
35.83
122,808,017
2.00
3.00
22.00
27.00
96,131,185
1.57
2.35
17.22
21.13
40%
0.63
0.94
6.89
8.45
198,487
36,514
60,483
9,162
304,646
0.77
0.98
1.32
1.98
-21,681,005
-1,573,624
28,638,824
74,552,898
5.87%
5.05%
6.83%
5.78%
5.96%
6.70%
5.03%
7.51%
4.16%