Inside the Ballot Box - University at Buffalo

University at Buffalo Regional Institute POLICY BRIEF | March 2009
How did the
region vote?
,
Did our voting
habits change
in 2008?
Who voted
for whom?
8
0
Inside the Ballot Box
The 2008 presidential election featured dramatic shifts in geographic and
demographic voting patterns at the national level. In Western New York, an
examination of federal election and voter registration data at the municipal level
reveals a microcosm of many national trends, including the predominance of likeminded communities, a pronounced Democratic swing from 2004 to 2008, and a
tendency among new voters to affiliate with minor parties or no party at all.
PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION ‘08
FIGURE 2 Margin of Victory by Municipality, Distorted by Population
NIAGARA COUNTY
LOCKPORT
NIAGARA
FALLS
How did the region vote?
ORLEANS
COUNTY
ERIE COUNTY
FIGURE 1 Margin of Victory by Municipality
LOCKPORT
GENESEE
COUNTY
NIAGARA FALLS
City of Buffalo
HIGHEST MARGIN FOR
BATAVIA
61.4%
MARGIN OF VICTORY
McCAIN
OBAMA: 79.5% McCAIN: 18.1%
Town of Centerville
HIGHEST MARGIN FOR
McCAIN:
BATAVIA
BUFFALO
45.4%
0 - 5%
5 - 10%
10% - 25%
25%+
OBAMA
OBAMA:
McCAIN: 71.3% OBAMA: 25.9%
WYOMING
COUNTY
DUNKIRK
= APPROX.
1,000
RESIDENTS
Few people paid much attention to New York State
on Election Day 2008. It was long considered safe
for the Democratic ticket and proved to be so, with
Senator Barack Obama receiving 63% of votes in
the Empire State. But, for the most part, Western
New York mirrored the voting behaviors of many
swing states and the nation at large. Of the 716,000
votes for president in the eight counties, 52.8%
were for Obama, compared to his 52.9% vote share
nationwide.
The underlying geography of the presidential
election in this region reflected several patterns
observed in recent past elections, as well as
nationally in 2008. Obama carried the region’s
urban centers, winning all eleven cities. He also
carried the region’s largest and most developed
suburban communities—Amherst, Cheektowaga,
Tonawanda, West Seneca and Hamburg—while
Senator John McCain, the Republican, won
developing exurban towns such as Clarence,
Lancaster, Orchard Park and Wheatfield (Figure 1).
Rural areas, accounting for the vast majority of the
region’s land mass and government units, voted
solidly for McCain—including all of Orleans and
Wyoming Counties, and everywhere in Allegany
County except the college town of Alfred. In fact,
McCain won in 85% of the region’s 175 cities and
towns, resulting in a mostly red election map.
When the map is distorted to reflect population
(Figure 2)—known as a cartogram—the influence
of the fewer but more populous Democraticleaning places becomes apparent. Buffalo and its
first-ring communities occupy almost half of the
resulting image, while cities such as Jamestown,
Olean, Batavia and Lockport fill large areas outside
the metropolitan core.
DUNKIRK
ALFRED
SALAMANCA
ALFRED
JAMESTOWN
OLEAN
**For maps with complete
municipal labels, visit
Reference Maps on the
Regional Knowledge Network
(rkn.buffalo.edu)
Most places in WNY voted
Republican...
UB Regional Institute analysis of 2008 election data from county boards of election; cartogram based on 2007 population estimates from U.S. Census Bureau
OLEAN
JAMESTOWN
ALLEGANY
COUNTY
CATTARAUGUS
COUNTY
CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY
SALAMANCA
...but the most populated
places voted Democratic.
In some places, the election was very close.
Fourteen cities and towns had margins of victory of
less than five percent, and one in four had margins
of victory below 10 percent—many of which
were concentrated on the Lake Erie shoreline
and along the Route 219 corridor through
southern Erie and Cattaraugus Counties. At
the same time, three out of four cities and
towns had margins of victory exceeding 10
percent and one-third had margins higher than
25 percent, including most of Allegany and
Wyoming Counties. Obama’s biggest margin
of victory—61.4 percent—came in Buffalo,
while Centerville in Allegany County gave
McCain his largest margin, at 45.4 percent. The
lopsided tallies in most communities reflect a
region where people tend to live near likeminded people.
Did our voting
habits change in
2008?
In most
communities,
Obama did better
than John Kerry
did in 2004.
As in most of the U.S., Western New York saw a noticeable
Democratic shift between the election of 2004—featuring
President George W. Bush (R) against Senator John Kerry
(D)—and the race between Senators Obama and McCain. In
more than 80% of the region’s cities and towns (Figure 3), the
margin of victory swung to the Democrats between 2004 and
2008—either by widening a Democratic margin of victory or, as
in most places, narrowing a Republican margin of victory.
The greatest shifts occurred in rural areas—especially the
Southern Tier, where all but five communities voted more
Democratic in 2008 than 2004. The Town of Caneadea in
Allegany County experienced the largest Democratic shift, as
the Republican margin of victory narrowed from 57 percent
in 2004 to 36 percent in 2008. Nearby, the Town of Eagle in
Wyoming County had the biggest shift in the opposite direction,
with the Republican margin widening from 19 percent to 32
percent. Shifts were less pronounced in Erie
and Niagara Counties, reflecting the already
high Democratic vote totals from 2004 in
some places and, perhaps, McCain’s ability
to attract some moderate voters that Bush
failed to capture in 2004.
FIGURE 3
’04-’08 Presidential
Vote Shift
Margin of victory became...
...more
Democratic
CATTAR
than 2004
by
...more
Republican
than 2004 by
While most communities voted in ways that
closely tracked the party affiliations of their
active registered voters (Figures 4 and 5),
ten places did the opposite—albeit by small
margins. One of these places was the City of
Batavia, the only city in Western New York
where Republican affiliation predominates.
In 2004, Batavia gave George Bush a 747 vote
n=
victory. In 2008, Obama won the city by two
votes. The other nine places were rural
and suburban communities with
small Democratic majorities that
voted narrowly for McCain.
10+ points
5-10 points
0- 5 points
0-5 points
5-10 points
10+ points
Biggest shift...
...to Democratic
TOWN OF
CANEADEA
’04
’08
MARGIN OF
VICTORY
ELECTION RESULTS
20%
77%
30%
66%
57%
MARGIN OF
VICTORY
SHIFT
21
points
36%
...to Republican
TOWN OF
EAGLE
’04
’08
39%
33%
58%
65%
19%
13
points
32%
Even before Election Day, the 2008
election brought about shifts in
party enrollment, with a notable
increase in independent and minor
party affiliation (Figures 6 and 7).
Between the primary election in
March 2008 and the general election
in November, the total number
of registered voters in the region
not enrolled in one of the two major
parties grew by 1.4%, compared to a 0.2%
increase in Democrats and a 1.2% decrease
in Republicans. In 60% of the region’s towns
and cities, the combination of non-affiliation
and minor party affiliation represented
the fastest growing (or slowest declining, in
Erie County’s case) enrollment status during
that period. Democrats, meanwhile, were the
fastest growing group in one-third of the region’s
jurisdictions. National trends such as young voters
registering for the first time, older voters becoming
re-engaged in the political process, an overall bad
year for Republicans and other developments may
have influenced this rise in non-affiliation. Whether it
will last beyond 2008 is unclear.
Republican enrollment predominates in most municipalities in
Western New York...
F GURE 5
WNY
44%
WNY
November 2008
GANY
32%
18% 6%
n=955,067
26
ALLEGANY
54
15 5
n=23,530
35
CATTARAUGUS
40
19 6
n=46,941
36
CHAUTAUQUA
34
22
8
n=81,236
50
ERIE
27
17
6
21
7
16
6
n=591,007
27
GENESEE
45
n=34,849
43
NIAGARA
35
Which is
the largest
party in each
municipality?
n=128,943
ORLEANS
25
47
WYOMING
26
47
22 6
n=24,270
20
7
n=24,291
PARTY AFFILIATION
= DEMOCRATIC
= REPUBLICAN
= INDEPENDENT (NO PARTY)
= MINOR PARTY
VOTED ACROSS PARTY LINES
10 Municipalities voted contrary to
their predominant party enrollment
...but independent and minor party enrollment grew
the fastest in 2008.
FIGURE 6 Change in Party Enrollment
between March 2008 and November 2008
FIGURE 7 Fastest Growing Voter Enrollment Status
between March 2008 and November 2008
WNY
ALLEGANY
Democratic
Republican
CATTARAUGUS
Independent &
Minor Parties
CHAUTAUQUA
ERIE
GENESEE
NIAGARA
ORLEANS
WYOMING
-4%
UB Regional Institute analysis of 2004 and 2008 election and voter registration data from county boards of
election; analysis based on active registered voters (right, top) and total registered voters (right, bottom)
Predominant Party Affiliation of Active Registered Voters,
=955,06
FIGURE 4 Party Enrollment in November 2008, by County
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Who
voted
for
whom?
FIGURE 8
PRESIDENTIAL
OBAMA/McCAIN
WNY
TOTAL
HIGH
POPULATION
DENSITY
53%
59%
LOW
41%
POVERTY
RATES
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
PROPORTION OF
ADULTS WITH
COLLEGE
DEGREES
LOW
HIGH
NON-WHITE
POPULATION
LOW
68%
47%
27th
28th
29th
KRYZAN/LEE
HIGGINS/
HUMISTON
SLAUGHTER/
CRIMMEN
MASSA/KUHL
35%
45%
48%
38%
40%
46%
63%
67%
19%
16%
61%
62%
21%
17%
26%
56%
41%
30%
53%
30%
39%
48%
68%
13%
70%
9%
43%
44%
50%
36%
49%
61%
22%
55%
30%
39%
46%
23%
55%
28%
56%
41%
31%
51%
65%
17%
66%
15%
55%
33%
56%
61%
44%
53%
53%
47%
60%
45%
30%
39%
37%
45%
39%
67%
15%
62%
47%
38%
41%
17%
48%
39%
52%
60%
24%
57%
36%
38%
47%
55%
35%
51%
59%
25%
53%
35%
38%
47%
47%
64%
19%
63%
Poverty Rates: ‘High’ is a poverty rate at or above 12.5%
in 2000 (the 75th percentile of WNY municipalities in the
2000 Census), ‘Low’ is below 12.5%.
Proportion of Adults with College Degrees: ‘High’ is
18.9% or more adults over age 25 with college degrees
(the 75th percentile of WNY municipalities in the 2000
Census), ‘Low’ is below 18.9%.
Need to know more?
UB Regional Institute
regional-institute.buffalo.edu
Non-white Population: ‘High’ is 3.6% or more residents
who identify themselves as a race other than white
(the 75th percentile of WNY municipalities in the 2000
Census), ‘Low’ is below 3.6%.
2000-2007 Population Change: ‘Increase’ is a
population change of 0% or more between the 2000
Census and the 2007 population estimate, ‘Decrease’ is a
net population loss.
Find this and
other policy briefs
at UB Regional
Institute’s Web site.
Regional
Knowledge
Network
rkn.buffalo.edu
33%
37%
Population Density: ‘High’ is density at or above 500
persons per square mile in 2007, ‘Low’ is below 500.
47%
53%
43%
UB Regional Institute analysis of 2008 election data from
county boards of election; results for congressional races
reflect district votes within the eight counties of Western
New York
41%
56%
48%
42%
DECREASE
26th
49%
INCREASE
2000-2007
POPULATION
CHANGE
Figure 8 Data Notes:
CONGRESSONIAL
19%
41%
44%
For More Information
New York State Board of Elections, online at
http://www.elections.state.ny.us/
For detailed election data, visit the
UB Regional Institute’s
Regional Knowledge Network:
View and dynamically map
2004 and 2008 presidential
election results, voter registration
and turnout data
View legislative district and
county jurisdiction maps
Allegany County Board of Elections, online at
http://www.alleganyco.com/default.asp?show=btn_elections
Cattaraugus County Board of Elections, online at
http://ww2.cattco.org/tag/department-board-elections
Chautauqua County Board of Elections, online at
http://www.votechautauqua.com/
Erie County Board of Elections, online at
http://www.erieboe.com/
Without a detailed exit poll for Western New York, it is
difficult to gauge demographic voting patterns. Categorizing
the region’s towns and cities by certain characteristics,
however, provides some sense of how communities of varying
types voted in the presidential and congressional races.
At the presidential level, several patterns mirrored the
urban/rural divide. Places with relatively high population
densities voted for Obama by 21 points, while those with
lower densities voted for McCain by 15 points. This pattern
was similar in places with relatively large non-white
populations—primarily cities and large suburbs—and rural
areas with more homogenous populations.
More variability was apparent with characteristics that apply
to a broader range of places. Areas with relatively high
poverty rates—including cities and many rural areas—voted
for Obama by a 38 point margin, with McCain winning
areas of lower poverty by 3 points. At the same time, Obama won
regardless of a community’s educational attainment levels.
There was less variation in the region’s congressional races, as
winning candidates won by large margins in most places. An
exception, though, was the Massa/Kuhl race in the 29th district,
including all of Cattaraugus and Allegany Counties. Massa, the
Democrat, won the election, while Kuhl won the WNY portion of the
district. But Massa won the region’s cities and major college towns—
reflected by his performance in densely settled areas with relatively
high proportions of minorities and college-educated adults.
As in years past, ticket splitting between the presidential and
congressional races was widely observed in 2008, with 50
municipalities in the region voting for opposite parties. Forty six
of those places voted for McCain and a Democratic congressional
candidate, with 34 of them voting for the incumbent Brian Higgins in
the 27th District.
Genesee County Board of Elections, online at
http://www.co.genesee.ny.us/dpt/elections/
Niagara County Board of Elections, online at
http://elections.niagara.ny.us/
Orleans County Board of Elections, online at
http://orleansny.com/PublicRecords/Elections/tabid/97/
Default.aspx
Wyoming County Board of Elections, online at
http://www.wyomingco.net/BOE/
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Buffalo, NY 14214-8010
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Beck Hall
The State University of New York
University at Buffalo
The Regional Institute
MARCH 2009
A unit of the University at Buffalo Law School
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