2008 General Election Brainroom Briefing Book

Transcription

2008 General Election
Brainroom Briefing Book
Bryan S. Murphy
Sr. Political Affairs Specialist
Fox News Channel
2
Table of Contents
Presidential General Election, All States, 2004 Summary .............................................................. 5
1992-2004 Presidential General Election........................................................................................ 7
Electoral College ............................................................................................................................. 8
The 2008 Senate Races................................................................................................................ 14
The 2008 House Races................................................................................................................. 15
The 2008 Governors Races .......................................................................................................... 18
2008 Major Issues on the Ballot .................................................................................................... 19
Early Voting Periods...................................................................................................................... 20
ASSOCIATED PRESS 2008 GE POLL CLOSING REPORT ....................................................... 22
7:00 PM ET
Georgia.......................................................................................................................................... 27
Indiana........................................................................................................................................... 36
Kentucky........................................................................................................................................ 42
South Carolina............................................................................................................................... 50
Vermont......................................................................................................................................... 52
Virginia .......................................................................................................................................... 56
7:30 PM ET
North Carolina ............................................................................................................................... 71
Ohio............................................................................................................................................... 84
West Virginia ................................................................................................................................. 95
8:00 PM ET
Alabama ...................................................................................................................................... 103
Connecticut ................................................................................................................................. 111
Delaware ..................................................................................................................................... 115
Washington D.C. ......................................................................................................................... 121
Florida ......................................................................................................................................... 123
Illinois .......................................................................................................................................... 141
Maine........................................................................................................................................... 150
Maryland...................................................................................................................................... 154
Massachusetts ............................................................................................................................ 158
Mississippi ................................................................................................................................... 163
Missouri ....................................................................................................................................... 171
New Hampshire........................................................................................................................... 181
New Jersey.................................................................................................................................. 193
Oklahoma .................................................................................................................................... 201
Pennsylvania ............................................................................................................................... 205
Tennessee................................................................................................................................... 219
8:30 PM ET
Arkansas ..................................................................................................................................... 223
9:00 PM ET
Arizona ........................................................................................................................................ 227
Colorado...................................................................................................................................... 236
Kansas ........................................................................................................................................ 250
Louisiana ..................................................................................................................................... 256
Michigan ...................................................................................................................................... 266
Minnesota.................................................................................................................................... 274
Nebraska ..................................................................................................................................... 286
New Mexico................................................................................................................................. 290
New York..................................................................................................................................... 298
North Dakota ............................................................................................................................... 309
3
Rhode Island ............................................................................................................................... 313
South Dakota............................................................................................................................... 317
Texas........................................................................................................................................... 323
Wisconsin .................................................................................................................................... 329
Wyoming ..................................................................................................................................... 335
10:00 PM ET
Iowa............................................................................................................................................. 345
Montana ...................................................................................................................................... 349
Nevada ........................................................................................................................................ 355
Utah............................................................................................................................................. 361
11:00 PM ET
California ..................................................................................................................................... 365
Hawaii.......................................................................................................................................... 369
Idaho ........................................................................................................................................... 371
Oregon ........................................................................................................................................ 375
Washington ................................................................................................................................. 381
1:00 AM ET
Alaska.......................................................................................................................................... 388
Recount Rules (in most competitive states) ................................................................................ 396
Endnotes ..................................................................................................................................... 398
4
Presidential General Election, All States, 2004 Summary
Electoral
State
Total Vote
Bush [*]
Kerry
Republican
Democratic
Total Vote (%)
Rep.
Dem.
Other
Other
Plurality
AL
9
0
0
1,883,449
1,176,394
693,933
13,122
482,461
AK
3
0
0
312,598
190,889
111,025
10,684
79,864
Rep.
Dem.
Other
R
62.46
36.84
0.7
R
61.07
35.52
3.42
AZ
10
0
0
2,012,585
1,104,294
893,524
14,767
210,770
R
54.87
44.4
0.73
AR
6
0
0
1,054,945
572,898
469,953
12,094
102,945
R
54.31
44.55
1.15
CA
0
55
0
12,421,852
5,509,826
6,745,485
166,541
1,235,659
D
44.36
54.3
1.34
CO
9
0
0
2,130,330
1,101,255
1,001,732
27,343
99,523
R
51.69
47.02
1.28
CT
0
7
0
1,578,769
693,826
857,488
27,455
163,662
D
43.95
54.31
1.74
DE
0
3
0
375,190
171,660
200,152
3,378
28,492
D
45.75
53.35
0.9
DC
0
3
0
227,586
21,256
202,970
3,360
181,714
D
9.34
89.18
1.48
FL
27
0
0
7,609,810
3,964,522
3,583,544
61,744
380,978
R
52.1
47.09
0.81
GA
15
0
0
3,301,875
1,914,254
1,366,149
21,472
548,105
R
57.97
41.37
0.65
HI
0
4
0
429,013
194,191
231,708
3,114
37,517
D
45.26
54.01
0.73
ID
4
0
0
598,447
409,235
181,098
8,114
228,137
R
68.38
30.26
1.36
IL
0
21
0
5,274,322
2,345,946
2,891,550
36,826
545,604
D
44.48
54.82
0.7
IN
11
0
0
2,468,002
1,479,438
969,011
19,553
510,427
R
59.94
39.26
0.79
IA
7
0
0
1,506,908
751,957
741,898
13,053
10,059
R
49.9
49.23
0.87
KS
6
0
0
1,187,756
736,456
434,993
16,307
301,463
R
62
36.62
1.37
KY
8
0
0
1,795,882
1,069,439
712,733
13,710
356,706
R
59.55
39.69
0.76
LA
9
0
0
1,943,106
1,102,169
820,299
20,638
281,870
R
56.72
42.22
1.06
ME
0
4
0
740,752
330,201
396,842
13,709
66,641
D
44.58
53.57
1.85
MD
0
10
0
2,386,678
1,024,703
1,334,493
27,482
309,790
D
42.93
55.91
1.15
MA
0
12
0
2,912,388
1,071,109
1,803,800
37,479
732,691
D
36.78
61.94
1.29
MI
0
17
0
4,839,252
2,313,746
2,479,183
46,323
165,437
D
47.81
51.23
0.96
MN
0
9
1
2,828,387
1,346,695
1,445,014
36,678
98,319
D
47.61
51.09
1.3
MS
6
0
0
1,152,145
684,981
458,094
9,070
226,887
R
59.45
39.76
0.79
MO
11
0
0
2,731,364
1,455,713
1,259,171
16,480
196,542
R
53.3
46.1
0.6
MT
3
0
0
450,445
266,063
173,710
10,672
92,353
R
59.07
38.56
2.37
NE
5
0
0
778,186
512,814
254,328
11,044
258,486
R
65.9
32.68
1.42
NV
5
0
0
829,587
418,690
397,190
13,707
21,500
R
50.47
47.88
1.65
NH
0
4
0
677,738
331,237
340,511
5,990
9,274
D
48.87
50.24
0.88
NJ
0
15
0
3,611,691
1,670,003
1,911,430
30,258
241,427
D
46.24
52.92
0.84
NM
5
0
0
756,304
376,930
370,942
8,432
5,988
R
49.84
49.05
1.11
NY
0
31
0
7,391,036
2,962,567
4,314,280
114,189
1,351,713
D
40.08
58.37
1.54
NC
15
0
0
3,501,007
1,961,166
1,525,849
13,992
435,317
R
56.02
43.58
0.4
ND
3
0
0
312,833
196,651
111,052
5,130
85,599
R
62.86
35.5
1.64
OH
20
0
0
5,627,908
2,859,768
2,741,167
26,973
118,601
R
50.81
48.71
0.48
OK
7
0
0
1,463,758
959,792
503,966
N/A
455,826
R
65.57
34.43
0
OR
0
7
0
1,836,782
866,831
943,163
26,788
76,332
D
47.19
51.35
1.46
PA
0
21
0
5,769,590
2,793,847
2,938,095
37,648
144,248
D
48.42
50.92
0.65
RI
0
4
0
437,134
169,046
259,760
8,328
90,714
D
38.67
59.42
1.91
SC
8
0
0
1,617,730
937,974
661,699
18,057
276,275
R
57.98
40.9
1.12
SD
3
0
0
388,215
232,584
149,244
6,387
83,340
R
59.91
38.44
1.65
TN
11
0
0
2,437,319
1,384,375
1,036,477
16,467
347,898
R
56.8
42.53
0.68
5
State
Rep.
Dem.
Other
Total Vote
Republican
Democratic
Other
Plurality
Rep.
Dem.
Other
TX
34
0
0
7,410,765
4,526,917
2,832,704
51,144
1,694,213
R
61.09
38.22
0.69
UT
5
0
0
927,844
663,742
241,199
22,903
422,543
R
71.54
26
2.47
VT
0
3
0
312,309
121,180
184,067
7,062
62,887
D
38.8
58.94
2.26
VA
13
0
0
3,198,367
1,716,959
1,454,742
26,666
262,217
R
53.68
45.48
0.83
WA
0
11
0
2,859,084
1,304,894
1,510,201
43,989
205,307
D
45.64
52.82
1.54
WV
5
0
0
755,887
423,778
326,541
5,568
97,237
R
56.06
43.2
0.74
WI
0
10
0
2,997,007
1,478,120
1,489,504
29,383
11,384
D
49.32
49.7
0.98
WY
3
0
0
243,428
167,629
70,776
5,023
96,853
R
68.86
29.07
2.06
U.S.
286
251
1
122,295,345
62,040,610
59,028,439
1,226,296
3,012,171
R
50.73
48.27
1
Notes: [*] Note: An asterisk (*) denotes incumbent.
Source: CQ Voting & Elections Collection
6
1992-2004 Presidential General Election
Percentage of Popular Vote Received by State (Democratic/Republican Nominees)
STATE
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
D.C.
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
N.H.
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
N.C.
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
2004
KERRY
BUSH
(D)
(R)
36.84% 62.46%
35.52% 61.07%
44.40% 54.87%
44.55% 54.31%
54.30% 44.36%
47.02% 51.69%
54.31% 43.95%
53.35% 45.75%
89.18%
9.34%
47.09% 52.10%
41.37% 57.97%
54.01% 45.26%
30.26% 68.38%
54.82% 44.48%
39.26% 59.94%
49.23% 49.90%
36.62% 62.00%
39.69% 59.55%
42.22% 56.72%
53.57% 44.58%
55.91% 42.93%
61.94% 36.78%
51.23% 47.81%
51.09% 47.61%
39.76% 59.45%
46.10% 53.30%
38.57% 59.07%
32.68% 65.90%
47.88% 50.47%
50.24% 48.87%
52.92% 46.24%
49.05% 49.84%
58.37% 40.08%
43.58% 56.02%
35.50% 62.86%
48.71% 50.81%
34.43% 65.57%
51.35% 47.19%
50.92% 48.42%
2000
GORE
BUSH
(D)
(R)
41.57
56.48
27.67
58.62
44.73
51.02
45.86
51.31
53.45
41.65
42.39
50.75
55.91
38.44
54.96
41.9
85.16
8.95
48.84
48.85
42.98
54.67
55.79
37.46
27.64
67.17
54.6
42.58
41.01
56.65
48.54
48.22
37.24
58.04
41.37
56.5
44.88
52.55
49.09
43.97
56.57
40.18
59.8
32.5
51.28
46.15
47.9
45.5
40.7
57.62
47.08
50.42
33.36
58.44
33.25
62.24
45.98
49.52
46.8
48.07
56.12
40.29
47.91
47.85
60.21
35.23
43.2
56.03
33.06
60.66
46.46
49.97
38.43
60.31
46.96
46.52
50.6
46.43
1996
CLINTON
DOLE
(D)
(R)
43.16
50.12
33.27
50.8
46.52
44.29
53.74
36.8
51.1
38.21
44.43
45.8
52.83
34.69
51.82
36.58
85.19
9.34
48.02
42.32
45.84
47.01
56.93
31.64
33.64
52.18
54.31
36.81
41.55
47.13
50.26
39.92
36.08
54.29
45.84
44.88
52.01
39.94
51.62
30.76
54.25
38.27
61.47
28.08
51.69
38.48
51.1
34.96
44.08
49.21
47.54
41.24
41.23
44.11
34.95
53.66
43.93
42.91
49.32
39.37
53.72
35.86
49.18
41.86
59.47
30.61
44.04
48.73
40.13
46.94
47.38
41.02
40.45
48.26
47.15
39.06
49.17
39.97
1992
CLINTON
BUSH
(D)
(R)
40.88
47.64
30.29
39.46
36.52
38.47
53.21
35.48
46.01
32.61
40.13
35.87
42.21
35.78
43.51
35.31
84.64
9.1
39
40.89
43.47
42.88
48.09
36.7
28.42
42.03
48.58
34.34
36.79
42.91
43.28
37.27
33.74
38.88
44.55
41.34
45.58
40.97
38.76
30.39
49.8
35.62
47.54
29.02
43.77
36.38
43.48
31.85
40.77
49.68
44.07
33.92
37.63
35.12
29.4
46.58
37.36
34.73
38.86
37.64
42.95
40.58
45.9
37.34
49.72
33.88
42.65
43.44
32.18
44.22
40.18
38.35
34.02
42.64
42.48
32.53
45.15
36.13
7
STATE
Rhode Island
S.C.
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Total
Percentage of
Popular Vote:
2004
KERRY
BUSH
(D)
(R)
59.42% 38.67%
40.90% 57.98%
38.44% 59.91%
42.53% 56.80%
38.22% 61.09%
26.00% 71.54%
58.94% 38.80%
45.48% 53.68%
52.82% 45.64%
43.20% 56.06%
49.70% 49.32%
29.07% 68.86%
2000
GORE
BUSH
(D)
(R)
60.99
31.91
40.9
56.84
37.56
60.3
47.28
51.15
37.98
59.3
26.34
66.83
50.63
40.7
44.44
52.47
50.16
44.58
45.59
51.92
47.83
47.61
27.7
67.76
48.27%
48.38%
50.73%
47.87%
1996
CLINTON
DOLE
(D)
(R)
59.71
26.82
43.96
49.79
43.03
46.49
48
45.59
43.83
48.76
33.3
54.37
53.35
31.09
45.15
47.1
49.84
37.3
51.5
36.76
48.81
38.48
36.84
49.81
49.24%
40.71%
1992
CLINTON
BUSH
(D)
(R)
47.04
29.02
39.88
48.02
37.14
40.66
47.08
42.43
37.08
40.56
24.65
43.36
46.11
30.42
40.59
44.96
43.4
31.96
48.41
35.39
41.13
36.78
33.98
39.56
43.01%
Note: The winning candidate percentage in each state is indicated by bold italics.
Electoral College
When voters go to the polls on Election Day, they actually cast their votes for a slate of electors,
who are entrusted by the Constitution with election of the President and Vice President.
The electors are known collectively as the Electoral College.
The question of the manner in which the President was to be elected was debated at great length
at the Constitutional Convention of 1787. At one point, the delegates voted for selection by
Congress; other proposals considered were for election by: the people at large; governors of the
several states; electors chosen by state legislatures, and a special group of Members of
Congress chosen by lot. Eventually, the matter was referred to a “committee on postponed
matters,” which arrived at a compromise: the Electoral College system.
The electoral college, as established by the Constitution and modified by the 12th and 23rd
Amendments, currently includes 538 members: one for each Senator and Representative, and
three for the District of Columbia (under the 23rd Amendment of 1961). It has no continuing
existence or function apart from that entrusted to it.
Each state has a number of electoral votes equal to the combined numerical total of its Senate
and House delegation.
Since the size of state delegations in the House of Representatives may change after the
reapportionment mandated by the decennial census, the size of state representation in the
electoral college has similarly fluctuated.
The most recent House reapportionment and reallocation of electoral votes followed the 2000
census, in effect for the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.
8
37.45%
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
D.C.
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Electoral
Votes in
2008
9
3
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
4
21
11
7
6
Electoral Votes by State, 2008
Electoral
State
Votes in
2008
Kentucky
8
Louisiana
9
Maine
4
Maryland
10
Massachusetts
12
Michigan
17
Minnesota
10
Mississippi
6
Missouri
11
Montana
3
Nebraska
5
Nevada
5
New Hampshire
4
New Jersey
15
New Mexico
5
New York
31
North Carolina
15
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
2000 Electoral Vote Results
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of
Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Electoral
Votes in
2008
3
20
7
7
21
4
8
3
11
34
5
3
13
11
5
10
3
State
2004 Electoral Votes Results
Electoral
Vote
of Each
State
Bush
Gore
9
3
8
6
54
8
8
3
3
25
13
4
4
22
12
7
6
8
9
4
10
12
9
3
8
6
8
25
13
4
12
6
8
9
-
54
8
3
2*
4
22
7
4
10
12
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of
Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Electoral
Vote
of Each
State
Bush
Kerry
Edwards
9
3
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
4
21
11
7
6
8
9
4
10
12
9
3
10
6
9
27
15
4
11
7
6
8
9
-
55
7
3
3
4
21
4
10
12
-
9
2000 Electoral Votes
Electoral
Vote
State
Bush
of Each
State
Michigan
18
Minnesota
10
Mississippi
7
7
Missouri
11
11
Montana
3
3
Nebraska
5
5
Nevada
4
4
New
4
4
Hampshire
New Jersey
15
New Mexico
5
New York
33
North Carolina
14
14
North Dakota
3
3
Ohio
21
21
Oklahoma
8
8
Oregon
7
Pennsylvania
23
Rhode Island
4
South Carolina
8
8
South Dakota
3
3
Tennessee
11
11
Texas
32
32
Utah
5
5
Vermont
3
Virginia
13
13
Washington
11
West Virginia
5
5
Wisconsin
11
Wyoming
3
3
Total
538
271
Gore
18
10
15
5
33
7
23
4
3
11
11
266
2004 Electoral Votes
Electoral
Vote
State
Bush Kerry
of Each
State
Michigan
17
17
Minnesota
10
9
Mississippi
6
6
Missouri
11
11
Montana
3
3
Nebraska
5
5
Nevada
5
5
New
4
4
Hampshire
New Jersey
15
15
New Mexico
5
5
New York
31
31
North Carolina
15
15
North Dakota
3
3
Ohio
20
20
Oklahoma
7
7
Oregon
7
7
Pennsylvania
21
21
Rhode Island
4
4
South Carolina
8
8
South Dakota
3
3
Tennessee
11
11
Texas
34
34
Utah
5
5
Vermont
3
3
Virginia
13
13
Washington
11
11
West Virginia
5
5
Wisconsin
10
10
Wyoming
3
3
Total
538
286
251
* Gore won DC in Nov., but one DC elector later abstained in protest of DC's lack of
representation in Congress.
** Kerry won MN in the Nov. election, but when the state electors met to vote in December, one
Minnesota elector voted for John Edwards for both President and Vice President.
10
Edwards
1**
1
Source: Guide to U.S. elections, 5th ed. (Vol. I). Washington: CQ Press.
11
Electoral Votes for Winner and Main Opponent, 1900 – 2004
Year
Democratic
1900
1904
1908
1912
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
Bryan
Parker
Bryan
Wilson
Wilson
Cox
Davis
Smith
F. D. Roosevelt
F. D. Roosevelt
F. D. Roosevelt
F. D. Roosevelt
Truman
Stevenson
Stevenson
Kennedy
Johnson
Humphrey
McGovern
Carter
Carter
Mondale
Dukakis
Clinton
Clinton
Gore
Kerry
Republican
McKinley
Roosevelt
Taft
Taft
Hughes
Harding
Coolidge
Hoover
Hoover
Landon
Willkie
Dewey
Dewey
Eisenhower
Eisenhower
Nixon
Goldwater
Nixon
Nixon
Ford
Reagan
Reagan
Bush
Bush
Dole
Bush
Bush
Democratic
Electoral Votes
Republican
Electoral Votes
155
140
162
435
277
127
136
87
472
523
449
432
303
89
73
303
486
191
17
297
49
13
111
370
379
266
251
292
336
321
8
254
404
382
444
59
8
82
99
189
442
457
219
52
301
520
240
489
525
426
168
159
271
286
Note: Prior to 1960, table excludes Alaska and Hawaii; prior to 1964, excludes DC.
General ticket system: In 48 states and the District of Columbia, all electoral votes are awarded
to the slate that receives a plurality of popular votes in the state. This practice is variously known
as the general ticket or winner-take-all system.
The general ticket system usually tends to exaggerate the winning candidates’ margin of victory,
as compared with the share of popular votes received. For instance, in 2000, George W. Bush
and Dick Cheney won 47.87% of the popular vote, as compared with 48.38% by Al Gore and Joe
Lieberman. The Republicans’ electoral vote margin of 271 to 266 was a much higher 50.37% of
the total available electoral votes, due to the fact that the Republican ticket received a plurality
vote in 30 States.
District system: Currently, Maine and Nebraska provide the only exception to the general ticket
method. Maine and Nebraska award one electoral vote to the ticket gaining the most votes in
each of their congressional districts, and awarding the remaining two (representing their
senatorial allotment) to the winners of the most votes statewide. This variation, more widely used
in the 19th century, is known as the district system.
12
Winning the Presidency & Counting the Electoral Votes
The 12th Amendment of the Constitution requires that winning candidates receive an absolute
majority of electoral votes (currently 270 of the 538 total).
Once the voters have chosen the members of the electoral college, the electors meet to ratify the
popular choices for President and Vice President. The Constitution provides (again, in the 12th
Amendment) that they assemble in their respective states.
Congress has established (in 3 U.S.C. §8) the first Monday after the second Wednesday in
December following their election as the date for casting electoral votes, at such place in each
state as the legislature directs.
In practice, the electors almost always meet in the state capital, usually at the State House or
Capitol Building, often in one of the legislative chambers. The votes are counted and recorded,
the results are certified by the Governor and forwarded to the President of the U.S. Senate (the
Vice President).
The electoral vote certificates are opened and counted at a joint session of the Congress, held,
as mandated (3 U.S.C. §15), on January 6 following the electors’ meeting (or, by custom, on the
next day, if it falls on a Sunday); the Vice President presides.
The winning candidates are then declared to have been elected.
The candidate for president with the most electoral votes, provided that it is an absolute majority
(one over half of the total), is declared president. Similarly, the vice presidential candidate with
the absolute majority of electoral votes is declared vice president.
In the event no one obtains an absolute majority of electoral votes for president, the U.S. House
of Representatives (as the chamber closest to the people) selects the president from among the
top three contenders with each State casting only one vote and an absolute majority of the States
being required to elect. Similarly, if no one obtains an absolute majority for vice president, then
the U.S. Senate makes the selection from among the top two contenders for that office.
At noon on January 20, the duly elected president and vice president are sworn into office.
Minority Presidents
Popular vote winners have failed to win the Presidency on four occasions since adoption of the
12th Amendment: in 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000.
In three of these instances – Republican Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Republican Benjamin
Harrison in 1888, and Republican George W. Bush in 2000 – the winning candidate carried a
number of key states by close margins, while losing other states by wide margins.
In the fourth instance – Democratic-Republican John Quincy Adams in 1824 – the House of
Representatives chose the new president after no candidate had achieved a majority in the
13
Year
1824
1876
1888
2000
Presidents Elected Without A Plurality of the Popular Vote
Candidates
Party
Popular Vote
%
Electoral Vote
Andrew Jackson
D-R
152,933
41.3
99
John Quincy Adams *
D-R
115,696
30.9
84
William H. Crawford
D-R
46,979
11.2
41
Henry Clay
D-R
47,136
13.0
37
Samuel J. Tilden
D
4,287,670
51.0
184
Rutherford B. Hayes *
R
4,035,924
48.0
185
Grover Cleveland
D
5,540,365
48.6
168
Benjamin Harrison *
R
5,445,269
47.8
233
Albert Gore, Jr.
D
50,996,582
48.4
266
George W. Bush *
R
50,456,062
47.8
271
* Elected
D-R = Democratic Republican; D = Democratic; R = Republican.
1824 – Popular returns for 18 states; in 6 states, electors were appointed by the state legislatures.
Source: Peirce and Longley. The People’s President, p. 241-242 cited in U.S. Library of Congress, Congressional
Research Service, Presidential Elections in the United States: A Primer, by Kevin J. Coleman, Joseph E. Cantor, and
Thomas H. Neale (Washington: April 17, 2000), p. CRS-34. & U.S. National Archives and Records Administration web
site.
The 2008 Senate Races
There are 35 seats up this year, but there are only 11 races that are considered competitive. The
focus is on Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon,
Georgia, Mississippi, Minnesota, and Kentucky.
There are currently 49 Republicans, and 49 Democrats in the U.S. Senate. Two Independents
caucus with the Democrats effectively giving them 51 seats. The consensus is that Democrats
will pick up seats, probably at least a half-dozen, but they could conceivably pick up enough seats
to give them a filibuster-proof majority of 60.
The open GOP seats in Virginia and New Mexico are lost causes for the party, while the open
seat in Colorado leans toward Democrats, which would put Democrats at 54 seats.
Alaska Republican Sen. Ted Stevens was put in the Cook Report’s Lean Democratic column
because of his trial; Stevens has since been convicted.
That leaves six seats in the Cook Report’s Toss Up column and all are held by Republicans,
which is very unusual. Of the six seats, three incumbents (Sununu, Dole and Smith) are trailing
their challengers, two more are running slightly ahead (Chambliss and Wicker) and one is in a
statistical dead heat (Coleman). One thing we do know is that the races in the Toss Up column
never split down the middle; one party tends to win a majority of them.
In 2006, Cook listed nine seats in the Toss Up column on Election Day – two Democrats and
seven Republicans, and Democrats won eight of those nine seats. In 2004, there were also nine
seats in Toss Up – five Democrats and four Republicans – and this time Republicans won eight of
those nine seats. Finally, in 2002, the year that this Senate class was last on the ballot, Cook
again had nine seats in Toss Up – five Democrats and four Republicans. Republicans won six of
those races.
If 2008 follows this pattern, the odds are against Republicans holding on to more than two of the
six seats in Toss Up. This means that Democrats would pick up a total of seven seats. If the
Democratic wave is even bigger than it was in 2006, it is possible that Republicans could lose all
six, getting Democrats to nine seats. A Washington jury convicted Stevens on Oct. 27 on seven
counts of making false statements on his financial disclosure forms.
14
Today, the most likely outcome is a Democratic gain of seven seats, but given the political
1
landscape, a nine-seat pick up is not out of the question.
Democrats would love to pick up one other seat in Kentucky. Obama's weakness in Kentucky
probably enhances Sen. Mitch McConnell's (R) chances of surviving. McConnell is ahead in the
polls, but not by a very comfortable margin.
Senate Democrats smell blood. They are still smarting over the defeat of their leader, Tom
Daschle of South Dakota, in 2004. Then-Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., even broke unwritten
Senate protocol by traveling to the state to help Republican candidate John Thune. So, the
2
Democrats' effort to oust McConnell seems almost personal, a payback of sorts.
Do note that the possibility of a runoff in the Georgia race if no candidate gets an absolute
3
majority of total votes cast probably improves Chambliss' ultimate prospects.
In a year when Republicans are defending 23 Senate seats to the Democrats’ 12, there are a
dozen highly competitive races for GOP-held seats but only one race where a Democrat is facing
any serious competition – and it doesn’t look all that serious anymore. In Louisiana, Mary L.
Landrieu appears to have a solid lead.
In the Senate, five of the 23 Republican senators whose terms expire this year are retiring, but no
Democrat is stepping down.
Schumer and his DSCC staff have done a much better job than their Republican rivals of
recruiting top-tier candidates for takeover bids. The Democratic list of challengers in impressive:
Gov. Warner in VA, the Udalls (Rep. Tom Udall in NM and Rep. Mark Udall in CO), former Gov.
Musgrove in MS, former Gov. Shaheen in NH, Al Franken in MN, state House Speaker Merkley in
OR, and Mayor Begich of Anchorage in AK.
Over at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Nevada’s John Ensign had much more
limited recruiting success. The best they did was to persuade a Louisiana Democrat, state
Treasurer John Kennedy, to switch parties to run against Landrieu. After a series of stumbles, the
best recruit they could find in New Jersey — where 84-year-old Democrat Frank R. Lautenberg
has never been very popular — was Dick Zimmer, a three-term congressman in the 1990s who
lost his last Senate race by 10 points, a dozen years ago, and then failed to win his old House
seat back in 2000.
Unable to recruit anyone in GOP-leaning Montana to take on Finance Committee Chairman Max
Baucus, the party ended up watching as the primary was won by an 85-year-old perennial
candidate who has sometimes run for the Green Party. In Iowa the nomination went more or less
by default to businessman Christopher Reed, who had raised all of $47,000 through the end of
last month to take on Tom Harkin, who has never won more than 56 percent of the vote in four
Senate elections. In South Dakota, where Tim Johnson won six years ago by 524 votes — but
then became something of a folk hero by surviving a near-fatal brain hemorrhage — the
challenger is an obscure state legislator, Joel Dykstra. Republicans are not even fielding a
sacrificial lamb against Mark Pryor’s bid for a second term in conservative-leaning Arkansas.4
The 2008 House Races
At the beginning of last year, Republican campaign strategists started planning for the 2008
House campaign with hopes of a comeback. Freshmen are typically the category of lawmaker
most vulnerable to defeat, because they have not had much time to capitalize on the benefits of
incumbency by making themselves familiar to their constituencies and bringing home legislative
victories and parochial favors — which is why a good number of members first elected in big
partisan “swing” elections such as 2006 are often swept out by a reverse tide two years later. But
that is not the case this year, in part because Democratic leaders acted swiftly to give members
15
of their big freshman class helpful committee assignments, prominent roles in promoting popular
pieces of legislation and early assistance in planning and raising money for their re-election
campaigns this year.
Of the 33 seats that have gone Democratic since the fall of 2006, only one is thought to be even
leaning toward a Republican take-back. And that is the South Florida seat where freshman Tim
Mahoney — who won mainly because the incumbent, Mark Foley, was exposed as making
inappropriate advances toward underage male congressional pages — has recently become
embroiled in his own scandal involving extramarital sex and a congressional employee.
There is also a dramatic competitive imbalance in the national House campaign. CQ says there
are 48 races for Republican seats in which Democrats are highly competitive — meaning the race
is leaning their way, is a tossup or is leaning only slightly to the GOP — while the GOP is similarly
in the running in 20 Democratic-held districts. The Democrats are also waging a much longer list
of plausible, if long-shot, takeover bids: 25 of them, compared with 14 potential upsets in the
sights of the GOP. Taken together, the Democrats have put 73 Republican seats in play while
defending against GOP challenges for just 34 of their own seats.
CQ thinks 15 seats appears to be the minimum Democratic pickup. Even retiring Rep. Thomas M.
Davis III, who ran the NRCC’s successful campaigns in 2000 and 2002, has publicly predicted
another double-digit setback for his party. And one of the GOP seats most likely to fall is Davis’
own, in the Northern Virginia suburbs, where the Democrats have rapidly gained ground over the
past few years. Gerry Connolly, who as chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors is
highly familiar to most of the district’s electorate, is the clear favorite.
The Democrats currently control 236 House seats, if you include the reliably Democratic
Cleveland-area seat left vacant by the death in August of Stephanie Tubbs Jones, which is
guaranteed to stay in the party’s hands. If the Democrats gain 20 more, they will match the
number they held in 1994, just before they began their dozen years in the minority.5
Charlie Cook wrote on Oct. 28, “All the signs of another big ‘wave’ election are apparent, and a
gain of 24-30 seats for House Democrats is the most likely outcome on the bell curve of
possibilities.”6
Democrats lost plenty of seats in Congress in 1966, 1980, and 1994; Republicans lost many in
1958, 1964, 1974, 1982, 1986, and 2006. What is so unusual about this year is that it is very rare
for one party to have two consecutive train-wreck elections, as is looking increasingly likely for
Republicans. In 2006, congressional Republicans were badly punished over the controversy
surrounding both the decision to fight in Iraq and the way in which the war was being conducted.
Various scandals and embarrassment over mounting deficits and mismanagement of the
Hurricane Katrina recovery effort also took their toll.
But in this election, Republicans are not being punished for the war. Indeed, the war is hardly an
issue. Republicans are being punished because of the economy: Many Americans have seen
their retirement savings badly depleted and have watched our banking system teetering on the
brink of disaster. It now seems that the 30 House seats the GOP lost in 2006 (not counting its
three special-election defeats since then) and the six Senate seats it also lost in 2006 could be
followed by the loss of 24 to 30 House seats and seven to nine Senate seats. Losing nine or 10
Senate seats is no longer impossible.
Devastating back-to-back election cycles are truly rare: They have happened only twice in the
past 80 years (40 elections) -- to Republicans in 1932 and 1934 and to Democrats in 1950 and
1952. Usually, when voters kick the heck out of one party, their anger is satisfied and they move
on. Voters rarely come back the very next time and kick the same party hard again.7
16
Political divisions of U.S. Senate and House of Representatives - 90th Congress to 110th Congress
[ALL FIGURES REFLECT IMMEDIATE RESULT OF ELECTIONS]
Senate
House of Representatives
Congress Years Number
Number
Dem Rep Other Vacant
Dem
Rep
Other Vacant
of
of Reps
Senators
1967–
90th
100
64
36
.......... ..........
435
248
187
.......... ..........
1969
1969–
91st
100
58
42
.......... ..........
435
243
192
.......... ..........
1971
1971–
92d
1973
100
54
44
2
..........
435
255
180
.......... ..........
1973–
93d
1975
100
56
42
2
..........
435
242
192
1
..........
1975–
94th
100
61
37
2
..........
435
291
144
.......... ..........
1977
1977–
95th
100
61
38
1
..........
435
292
143
.......... ..........
1979
1979–
96th
100
58
41
1
..........
435
277
158
.......... ..........
1981
1981–
97th
1983
100
46
53
1
..........
435
242
192
1
..........
1983–
98th
1985
100
46
54
.......... ..........
435
269
166
.......... ..........
1985–
99th
100
47
53
.......... ..........
435
253
182
.......... ..........
1987
1987–
100th
100
55
45
.......... ..........
435
258
177
.......... ..........
1989
1989–
101st
100
55
45
.......... ..........
435
260
175
.......... ..........
1991
1991–
102d
1993
100
56
44
.......... ..........
435
267
167
1
..........
1993–
103d
1995
100
57
43
.......... ..........
435
258
176
1
..........
1995–
104th
100
48
52
.......... ..........
435
204
230
1
..........
1997
1997–
105th
100
45
55
.......... ..........
435
207
226
2
..........
1999
1999–
106th
100
45
55
.......... ..........
435
211
223
1
..........
2001
2001–
107th
2003
100
50
50
.......... ..........
435
212
221
2
..........
2003–
108th
2005
100
48
51
1
..........
435
204
229
1
1
2005–
109th
100
44
55
1
..........
435
202
232
1
..........
2007
2007–
110th
100
49
49
2
..........
435
233
202
.......... ..........
2009
17
The 2008 Governors Races
There are 11 gubernatorial contests on the ballot. The following is taken from the latest Cook
Political Report analysis of the gubernatorial races.
The Republicans
Of the five seats on the ballot currently held by Republicans, Govs. John Hoeven in North Dakota
and Jon Huntsman in Utah are shoo-ins for re-election.
In Vermont, Gov. Jim Douglas is expected to win easily, defeating his two opponents, Democratic
state House Speaker Gaye Symington and independent candidate and political activist Anthony
Pollina. The question, though, is whether Douglas can get the 50 percent of the vote necessary to
avoid the race going to the Democratic-controlled state legislature.
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels appears to be in strong position to win re-election. His Democratic
opponent, former Rep. and Clinton Administration USDA Under Secretary Jill Long Thompson,
has struggled to raise money for the general election, and did not air any television between midSeptember and last week.
But while Daniels has brought new jobs to the state, voters here are feeling the effects of the
economic downturn. An anxious electorate might opt for change for change’s sake and Daniels
could become an unintended victim of the political environment. Democrats and the Obama
campaign are also putting effort into the state. If Democrats and independents turn out in higher
numbers to support Obama, this could also have consequences for Daniels. All things being
equal, though, Daniels should win a second term.
The most difficult race for Republicans is their open seat in Missouri where GOP Rep. Kenny
Hulshof is trailing Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon. Hulshof hasn’t really made any
mistakes, but he has suffered from a late entry into the race and a very competitive primary.
Nixon should win here.
Republicans should hold four of their five seats.
The Democrats
Of the six Democratic-held seats on the ballot next week, incumbent Gov. Brian Schweitzer in
Montana, John Lynch in New Hampshire and Joe Manchin in West Virginia will all win easily. In
the open seat in Delaware, state Treasurer Jack Markell won’t have much trouble holding on to
that seat for his party.
That leaves two contests, the open seat in North Carolina and Gov. Chris Gregoire in Washington
State, and both are in the Toss Up column.
Democrats have held the governorship in North Carolina for the past 16 years. In fact, according
to the Associated Press, they have occupied the Governor’s Mansion for all but 12 of the last 100
years. Republicans hope that their nominee, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, can break Democrats’
winning streak. Polling shows a very close race.
In a better political environment for Republicans, McCrory might well have established a solid
lead, but he, like most GOP candidates across the country, is swimming against a strong tide. If
voters see him as an agent of change, he could well prevail. If not, Perdue will continue
Democrats’ long hold on the office. In any case, it will be a close race.
In Washington, Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire is locked in a close race with former GOP Sen.
Dino Rossi, the man she beat by just 133 votes in 2004.
18
Both have gotten help from outside groups, making this one of the most expensive races in the
state’s history. One estimate is that more than $40 million will be spent on the contest.
While it’s not clear whether this race will be as close as 2004 was, GOP strategists say that
Rossi’s chances of becoming the first Republican Governor in 28 years rest on the economy, and
specifically whether voters attribute the state’s economy woes to Gregoire’s leadership or to the
downturn in the economy nationally. If voters blame Gregoire, then Rossi is in a good position to
win, despite the state’s strong Democratic tilt. If voters blame President Bush, Congress and Wall
Street, then Gregoire is likely to get re-elected.
Democrats will certainly hold on to four of their six seats, with North Carolina and Washington up
for grabs. Given the political climate, it is possible that they hold on to both. It is equally possible
that they lose one. The more unlikely—but not impossible—scenario is that Democrats lose both.
Overall, the possible outcomes on Election Night range from a wash in which neither party gains
seats to a Democratic pick up of one seat.8
2008 Major Issues on the Ballot
Voters in 36 states are set to decide 153 ballot propositions in November. Voters faced 162
propositions in November 2004, and 204 propositions in November 2006, so this is looking to be
a down year for direct democracy.9
Abortion: A Colorado measure would define a “person” to include “any human being from the
moment of fertilization.” Abortion would be banned with exceptions for rape, incest and the
mother’s health in South Dakota. California voters will consider requiring doctors to notify a parent
before performing an abortion on a minor.
Affirmative action: Measures to end race and gender preferences in college admissions and
government hiring are on the ballot in Colorado and Nebraska and was dropped from the ballot in
Arizona.
Elections: Redrawing state legislative districts in California would become the responsibility of a
commission, not the Legislature. South Dakota will consider eliminating legislative term limits.
Hawaiians will decide whether to lower the age qualification for governor and lieutenant governor
to 25 from 30, while Coloradans will decide whether to reduce the age threshold to serve in the
General Assembly to 21 from 25. In Michigan a judge struck a redistricting measure from the
ballot.
Energy: All utilities in California, including government-owned power providers, would have to
generate 20 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2010, a standard that currently
applies only to private companies. A measure in Missouri would require that 15 percent of the
state’s electricity come from clean energy sources by 2021.
Gambling: Maryland will decide whether to legalize slots while Arkansas, one of only eight states
without a lottery, will vote on whether to OK a state-run lottery to fund college scholarships.
Colorado will consider expanding the hours and games allowed at casinos, with a portion of the
extra money going to financial aid and Ohio will consider allowing one casino, the state’s first.
Immigration: Arizona will decide whether to permanently revoke the business licenses of
employers who knowingly hire undocumented workers. English would be the official language in
Missouri, and teachers would be prohibited from teaching in languages other than English for
more than two years in Oregon.
Stem-cell research: Michigan voters will get to decide whether to lift a 30-year-old ban on
scientific research that results in the destruction of an embryo under a pending proposal.
19
Same-sex marriage: Initiatives to ban same-sex weddings are on the ballot in Arizona, California
and Florida. Arkansas will consider allowing only married couples to serve as foster parents.
Approval in California would reverse a state Supreme Court ruling that made California only the
second state to legalize same-sex marriage.
Taxes: The state income tax would be abolished in Massachusetts and cut in North Dakota while
Coloradoans will decide whether to ditch their strictest-in-the-nation state spending cap that
returned extra revenue to taxpayers. Maine will decide whether to repeal a 2008 law that
increased excise taxes on beer, wine and soda. Minnesota would devote a portion of sales tax to
protect wetlands.
Health care: Montana would extend coverage to more children while Arizona would prohibit the
state from mandating coverage. California will consider nearly $1 billion in bonds to build
children’s hospitals. A Michigan measure would allow the medical use of marijuana. Supporters
withdrew a Colorado measure requiring businesses to provide health insurance.10
Early Voting Periods
33 states allow no-excuse absentee voting by mail and/or no-excuse in-person early voting. (In
addition, Oregon conducts all vote by mail.)
Alaska
Early Voting Period: Eligible voters may vote early without excuse by absentee ballot or in person
beginning 15 days before the election
Arizona
Early Voting Period: In person, no-excuse early voting begins 33 days before the election
Arkansas
Early Voting Period: In person, no-excuse early voting begins 15 days prior to the election and
ends at 5:00 PM on the Monday prior to the election
California
Early Voting Period: In person, early voting begins 29 days prior to the election
Colorado
Early Voting Period: In person, no-excuse early voting begins 15 days prior to the election
Florida
Early Voting Period: In person, no-excuse early voting begins 15 days prior to the election and
ends on the second day before the election
Georgia
Early Voting Period: In person, no excuse early voting is allowed from September 22, 2008 to
October 31, 2008
Hawaii
Early Voting Period: In person, no excuse early voting is allowed from October 21 to November 1,
2008
Idaho
Early Voting Period: In person, no excuse absentee voting begins as soon as ballots are available
Illinois
Early Voting Period: In person, no-excuse early voting is available from October 14th to October
30th
20
Indiana
Early Voting Period: In person, no excuse absentee voting begins on October 6, 29 days prior to
the election
Iowa
Early Voting Period In person, no excuse absentee voting begins when ballots are available
(40 days before the election)
Kansas
Early Voting Period: In person, no excuse early voting begins up to 20 days before the election
Louisiana
Early Voting Period In person, no-excuse early voting begins on October 21st and continues until
October 28th
Maine
Early Voting Period In person, no-excuse absentee begins 30-45 days before the election
Montana
Early Voting Period In person, no excuse absentee voting begins 30 days before the election
Nebraska
Nevada
Early Voting Period: In person, no-excuse early voting takes place October 18th through October
31st
New Jersey
Early Voting Period: In person, no-excuse absentee ballots are available September 25 up until
day before Election Day
New Mexico
Early Voting Period In person, no excuse early voting begins the third Saturday before the
Election and continues until the Saturday before the election.
North Carolina
Early Voting Period: In person, no excuse absentee voting begins 30 days before the election
North Dakota
Early Voting Period: Ballots are available to voters 40 days prior to each Election Day. Ballots
must be returned by at least the day before the election.
Ohio
Early Voting Period: In person, no excuse absentee voting begins 35 days before the election
Oklahoma
Early Voting Period: In person, no-excuse absentee voting takes place from 8:00 AM to 6:00 PM
on October 31st and November 3rd, and from 8:00 AM to 1:00 PM on November 1st
South Dakota
Early Voting Period: In person, no excuse absentee voting begins six weeks before the election
Tennessee
Early Voting Period In person, no excuse early voting is allowed from October 15, 2008 to
October 30, 2008
21
Texas
Early Voting Period In person, no-excuse early voting takes place October 20th to October 31st
Utah
Vermont
Washington
No excuse required for absentee voting by mail (37 of 39 counties conduct all elections by mail)
West Virginia
Early Voting Period: In person, no-excuse early voting begins 20 days before the election until
three days before the election
Wisconsin
Early Voting Period: In person, no-excuse early voting begins three weeks before the election
Wyoming
Early Voting Period In person, no excuse absentee voting begins 40 days prior to the election
NOTE: Oregon conducts all vote by mail.11
ASSOCIATED PRESS 2008 GE POLL CLOSING REPORT
State
Time Zone 1 (all
or majority of
state is within
time zone)
Time Zone 2
(remainder of
state is
within time
zone)
Poll
Closing in
Eastern
Standard
Time
7:00 & 8:00
PM
AL
CTZ
AK
AKTZ
AZ
MTZ
9:00 PM
AR
CTZ
8:30 PM
HATZ
12:00 &
1:00 AM
For the GE, all times are in standard time as daylight-saving time ends on
November 2, 2008.
For the General Election, the entire state closes at 7:00PM CT (8:00PM ET),
EXCEPT for the following precincts in Chambers County: Lannett, Lakeview,
Rescue, Shawmut, Langdale, Fairfax, Riverview, and Huguley, which have opted
to close at 6:00PM CT (7:00PM ET) due to state statute. Note: Due to the fact that
Chambers, Lee, and Russell counties operate on ET due to work in neighboring
state of GA, polls in these counties may close at 6:00 or 7:00PM CT in future
elections.
No vote returns are released until all polls have closed at 9:00PM AKT (1:00AM
ET). Most precincts are located within the Alaskan Time Zone where Daylight
Savings Time is observed. However, the Western Aleutian and St. Lawrence
Islands are in the Hawaii-Aleutian Time Zone where Daylight Savings Time is not
observed. All polls close at 8:00PM local time. For the GE the polls will close at
12:00AM ET in the Alaskan Time Zone while the precinct in Atka (with 51
registered voters), located in the Hawaii-Aleutian Time Zone, will close at 1:00AM
ET.
For the GE all polls in state will close at 9:00PM ET, however no vote returns are
released until all precincts have reported or 1 hour after all polls are closed
(10:00PM ET), whichever comes first. While the entire state is in the MTZ, most of
the state does not observe Daylight Savings Time except the Navajo Nation, in the
northeastern part of the state. All polls close at 7:00PM local time. For the state
primary polls in the Navajo Nation will close at 9:00PM EDT while all other polls in
the state will close at 10:00PM EDT. Within Arizona the Navajo Nation is made up
of parts of Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties, all within the 1st CD.
22
Time Zone 2
(remainder of
state is
within time
zone)
Poll
Closing in
Eastern
Standard
Time
State
Time Zone 1 (all
or majority of
state is within
time zone)
CA
PTZ
11:00 PM
CO
MTZ
9:00 PM
CT
ETZ
8:00 PM
DE
ETZ
8:00 PM
DC
ETZ
8:00 PM
FL
ETZ
GA
ETZ
7:00 PM
HI
HTZ
11:00 PM
Does not observe Daylight Savings Time. All polls close at 6:00PM local time. For
the GE all polls will close at 11:00PM ET. For the state primary all polls will close
at 12:00AM ET.
ID
MTZ
10:00 &
11:00 PM
Counties in PTZ close at 11:00PM ET: Benewah, Bonner, Boundary, Clearwater,
Idaho, Kootenai, Latah, Lewis, Nez Perce, Shoshone. The rest of the state closes
at 10:00PM ET, but state law requires results be withheld until all polls in state are
closed at 11:00PM ET.
IL
CTZ
8:00 PM
IN
ETZ
6:00 & 7:00
PM
IA
CTZ
CTZ
PTZ
CTZ
7:00 & 8:00
PM
November 2, 2008.
Counties in ETZ close at 7:00PM ET. Counties in CTZ will close at 8:00PM ET:
Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Holmes, Jackson, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton,
Washington. Gulf is in the ETZ in the south & the CTZ in the north; polls in both
areas close at 7:00PM ET.
All counties close at 6:00PM local time. The majority of the state is in ETZ and
closes at 6:00PM ET, however 12 counties are in CTZ and close at 7:00PM ET
including: Gibson, Jasper, Lake, Laporte, Newton, Perry, Porter, Posey, Spencer,
Starke, Vanderburgh, and Warrick.
10:00 PM
KS
CTZ
MTZ
8:00 & 9:00
PM
KY
ETZ
CTZ
6:00 & 7:00
PM
LA
CTZ
9:00 PM
ME
ETZ
8:00 PM
MD
ETZ
8:00 PM
MA
ETZ
8:00 PM
MI
ETZ
CTZ
8:00 & 9:00
PM
State law permits all counties to set different poll hours: those in the CTZ may
close no earlier than 7:00PM CT and no later than 8:00PM CT and polls in the MTZ
may close no earlier than 6:00PM MT and no later than 7:00PM MT). However, for
the GE all counties plan to close polls at 7:00PM local time. Most of the state is in
CTZ and closes at 8:00PM ET, however 4 counties are in MTZ and close at
9:00PM ET: Greeley, Hamilton, Sherman, Wallace.
Polls close at 6:00PM local time. Majority of state is in ETZ and closes at 6:00PM
ET, but a large number of counties are in CTZ and close at 7:00PM ET: Adair,
Allen, Ballard, Barren, Breckinridge, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian,
Clinton, Crittenden, Cumberland, Daviess, Edmonson, Fulton, Graves, Grayson,
Green, Hancock, Hart, Henderson, Hickman, Hopkins, Livingston, Logan, Lyon,
McCracken, McLean, Marshall, Metcalfe, Monroe, Muhlenberg, Ohio, Russell,
Simpson, Todd, Trigg, Union, Warren, Webster.
Municipalities with populations under 100 may close polls early if every registered
voter has cast a ballot.
All polls close at 8:00PM local time. Most of the state is in ETZ, however 4
counties are in CTZ and do not close until 9:00PM ET: Dickinson, Gobegic, Iron,
Menominee.
23
Time Zone 2
(remainder of
state is
within time
zone)
Poll
Closing in
Eastern
Standard
Time
State
Time Zone 1 (all
or majority of
state is within
time zone)
MN
CTZ
9:00 PM
MS
CTZ
8:00 PM
MO
CTZ
8:00 PM
MT
MTZ
10:00 PM
Polling places with fewer than 400 registered voters may close early if everyone
has cast a ballot.
9:00 PM
All Counties close at 9:00PM ET. Majority of state is in CTZ. Those counties in
MTZ include: Arthur, Banner, Box Butte, Chase, Cherry (western part), Cheyenne,
Dawes, Deuel, Dundy, Garden, Grant, Hooker, Keith, Kimball, Morrill, Perkins,
Scotts Bluff, Sheridan, Sioux.
10:00 PM
Polls may close early if every registered voter has cast a ballot.
Polling place may close earlier if all registered voters have cast a ballot. Most of
the state closes at 7:00PM ET. 1 town (Albany) closes at 6:00PM ET. 3 towns
(Brookline, Kensington, Sugar Hill) close at 7:30PM ET. 21 towns (Amherst,
Atkinson, Danville, Derry, Exeter, Hampstead, Hampton, Hampton Falls, Hudson,
Kingston, Londonderry, Merrimack, Milford, Newmarket, Newton, Pelham,
Plaistow, Sandown, South Hampton, Stratham, Windham) and 1 city (Nashua)
close at 8:00PM ET.
NE
CTZ
NV
PTZ
MTZ
November 2, 2008.
NH
ETZ
6:00, 7:00,
7:30 &
8:00 PM
NJ
ETZ
8:00 PM
NM
MTZ
9:00 PM
NY
ETZ
9:00 PM
NC
ETZ
7:30 PM
If a precinct experiences delays due to voting equipment, the local authorities may
extend poll closing time to 8:30PM.
8:00 & 9:00
PM
State law requires all polls to close no earlier than 7:00PM local time and no later
than 9:00PM local time. 39 counties are in CTZ and close at 7:00PM CT (8:00PM
ET). 2 counties in the CTZ have later poll closing times: Cass & Nelson close at
8:00PM CT (9:00PM ET). 9 counties are in MTZ and close at 7:00PM MT (9:00PM
ET): Adams, Billings, Bowman, Golden Valley, Grant, Hettinger, Mercer, Slope,
Stark. 3 counties are in both time zones: Dunn, McKenzie, and Sioux. Dunn is all
mail ballot and all polls close at 7:00PM MT (9:00PM ET). McKenzie is all mail
ballot and polls close at 7:00PM local time (8:00PM and 9:00PM ET). In Sioux
polling places are only in the CTZ and close at 7:00PM CT (8:00PM ET).
A pct located on an island not connected to mainland by bridge/highway may close
earlier than 7:30pm if all registered voters have voted.
ND
CTZ
MTZ
OH
ETZ
7:30 PM
OK
CTZ
8:00 PM
OR
PTZ
10:00 &
11:00:00
PM
PA
ETZ
8:00 PM
RI
ETZ
9:00 PM
SC
ETZ
7:00 PM
MTZ
All counties close at 8:00PM local time. Most of the state is in PTZ and closes at
11:00PM ET. Malheur county is mostly in the MTZ and polls close at 10:00PM ET,
but no results are released until polls in the PTZ (southern part of Malheur) close at
11:00PM ET.
24
State
Time Zone 1 (all
or majority of
state is within
time zone)
Time Zone 2
(remainder of
state is
within time
zone)
Poll
Closing in
Eastern
Standard
Time
SD
CTZ
MTZ
8:00 & 9:00
PM
TN
CTZ
ETZ
8:00 PM
TX
CTZ
MTZ
8:00 & 9:00
PM
UT
MTZ
10:00 PM
VT
ETZ
7:00 PM
VA
ETZ
7:00 PM
WA
PTZ
11:00 PM
WV
ETZ
7:30 PM
WI
CTZ
9:00 PM
WY
MTZ
9:00 PM
November 2, 2008.
All polls close at 7:00PM local time. Counties in the MTZ close at 9:00PM ET:
Bennett, Butte, Corson, Custer, Dewey, Fall River, Haakon, Harding, Jackson,
Lawrence, Meade, Pennington, Perkins, Shannon, Stanley (western part), and
Ziebach. The majority of the state is in the CTZ and closes at 8:00PM ET,
however, state law requires results be withheld until all polls in state are closed at
9:00PM ET.
All counties close at 8:00PM ET (counties in ETZ close at 8:00PM local time and
counties in CTZ close at 7:00PM local time). Counties in the ETZ include:
Anderson, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Carter, Claiborne, Cocke, Grainger, Greene,
Hamblen, Hamilton, Hancock, Hawkins, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Loudon,
McMinn, Meigs, Monroe, Morgan, Polk, Rhea, Roane, Scott, Sevier, Sullivan,
Unicoi, Union, Washington.
All counties close at 7:00PM local time. Most of the state is in the CTZ and closes
at 8:00PM ET. Counties in MTZ close at 9:00PM ET: Culberson (part of), El Paso,
Hudspeth. Polls with less than 50 registered voters may close early if all have
voted.
25
26
Georgia
Electoral Votes:
15
Electoral Vote allocation:
Presidential Race Rating:
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
All polls close at 7:00 PM ET.
Statewide winner take all
Lean Republican (Cook Rating)
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
2004 Presidential Election Results
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
1,914,254
57.97%
Kerry
1,366,149
41.37%
Other
21,472
0.66%
Vote Margin in 2004:
548,105
Results for 1980 to 2004 President
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
57.97%
41.37%
2000
54.68%
42.99%
1996
47.01%
45.84%
1992
42.88%
43.47%
1988
59.65%
39.60%
1984
60.17%
39.78%
1980
40.97%
55.79%
2008 Primary Results
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Obama
66.4%
Clinton
31.1%
Edwards
1.7%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Huckabee
33.9%
McCain
31.6%
Romney
30.2%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Sonny Perdue (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
6
7
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
22
34
0
State House
73
107
0
7:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
Independent/Unaffil.
N/A
Total
5,598,425
As Of
10/1/2008
Voting Eligible Population
VEP 2008
6,559,724
VEP Turnout 2004
57.38%
Population & Demographics
9,544,750
Total population
9
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
942,832
9.9%
65 years and over
5,583,589
58.5%
Non-Hispanic White
2,864,431
30.0%
Black
268,818
2.8%
Asian
740,843
7.8%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Atlanta
519,145
Columbus
187,046
Savannah
130,331
Foreclosures (Sept. 2008)
Rate
1 in every 417 households
Rate Rank
5th highest in U.S.
Unemployment Rate (Sept. 2008)
State Rate
6.5%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
Median Household Income
State
$49,136
U.S.
$50,740
27
GEORGIA – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) Incumbent
Born: November 10, 1943, Warrenton, N.C.
Home: Moultrie, Ga.
Education: Louisiana Tech U., attended 1962; U. of Georgia, B.B.A. 1966 (business
administration); U. of Tennessee, J.D. 1968
Religion: Episcopalian
Marital status: Married (Julianne)
Elected Office: Sought Republican nomination for U.S. House, 1992; U.S. House, 1995-2003;
U.S. Senate, 2003-present
Professional Career: Lawyer; hotel owner; firefighter; construction worker
Sen. Chambliss is seeking a second term in the Senate.
Saxby Chambliss was born in Warrenton, N.C., and resides in Moultrie, Ga. He received a
bachelor's degree from the University of Georgia in 1966, and a law degree from the University of
Tennessee in 1968.
Chambliss was a partner in a Moultrie, Ga., law firm, where he practiced for 25 years.
He was first elected to the U.S. House in 1994 and re-elected in 1996, 1998 and 2000.
During four terms in the U.S. House, Chambliss led an Intelligence Committee panel that
compiled a report that uncovered government errors that contributed to the Sept. 11 attacks. The
assignment boosted Chambliss' visibility for his 2002 Senate race against incumbent Democrat
Max Cleland.
He was elected to the Senate in 2002. His victory cemented Chambliss' reputation as a tough
campaigner.
One Chambliss ad juxtaposed the face of Cleland, a triple-amputee Vietnam veteran, with those
of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein -- drawing howls of national criticism that Chambliss
was comparing the Vietnam veteran with a terrorist. Chambliss insisted the spot was aimed only
at highlighting Cleland's vote against the creation of a new Department of Homeland Security.
Cleland supported creating the department but opposed certain labor provisions in the bill.
Chambliss, a former small-town agriculture lawyer from Moultrie, has become one of the most
influential farming voices on Capitol Hill.
Two years after his election to the Senate in 2002, he was handed the gavel of the Senate
Agriculture Committee -- an unusual position of power for a freshman. However, Democrats took
control of Congress in the 2006 elections. Still, as the top Republican on the panel, Chambliss
played a lead role in crafting the five-year farm law that Congress passed in 2008.
His loyalty to President Bush got him in hot water with conservative constituents in 2007, when
Chambliss tried to stand with Bush to pass a compromise immigration bill. Eventually, he bowed
to pressure and opposed the measure, which stalled.
The New York Times reported a recorded phone conversation between Chambliss and Senate
Majority Leader Bill Frist. Chambliss asked for Frist's support in appointing a friend and
Republican donor to an ambassadorship. Frist agreed, but the donor did not get tapped.
Democrats said the two GOP lawmakers were "selling ambassadorships to the highest bidder."
Chambliss and his wife, Julianne, have two children.12
28
Former State Rep. Jim Martin (D)
Born: August 22, 1945, Atlanta
Home: Atlanta
Education: MBA, Georgia State University, 1980; LLM, University of Georgia, 1972; JD,
University of Georgia, 1969; AB, University of Georgia, 1967.
Religion: Presbyterian
Marital status: Married (Joan)
Elected Office: Georgia House of Representatives, 1983-2001
Professional Career: Attorney, 1972-present
James (Jim) Martin was born in Atlanta and currently lives there. He overcame polio at age 8 and
went on to serve in the U.S. Army, including a tour of duty in Vietnam. Martin attended the
University of Georgia where he earned a bachelor's degree and two law degrees.
Martin's legal career included work as a legal aid lawyer and assistant legislative counsel to the
Georgia General Assembly.
He was elected to the state House of Representatives in 1983 and served nine terms, which
included a stint as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.
Martin was appointed by Gov. Roy Barnes in 2001 as commissioner of the state Department of
Human Resources, a massive department which oversees social service programs. He resigned
in 2003 after Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue was elected.
Martin launched an unsuccessful bid for lieutenant governor in 2006.13
He lost to Republican Casey Cagle, 54 percent to 42 percent.14
He is an attorney with the Atlanta law firm of Martin Bros., P.C. and until recently, taught at
Georgia State University’s Andrew Young School of Policy Studies.15
He and his wife, Joan, have four children.16
Allen Buckley (Libertarian)
Born: 10/07/1960; Berea, OH
Residence: Smyrna
Education: BA Kent St Univ, 1982; JD Univ. of GA, 1985; LLM Univ. of FL, 1989
Marital Status: Married (Elmira)
Religion: Christian
Prev. Occupation: Attorney, Certified Public Accountant
Prev. Political Exp.: no prior elected office
Allen Buckley is a metro Atlanta CPA and attorney.
He ran for the U.S. Senate in 2004 and pulled only 2.1 percent of the vote.
He made a run for lieutenant governor in 2006 and got 3.6 percent of the vote.
In recent election debates, he has always tries to steer the conversation back to just one topic --the mushrooming federal debt.
He’s an underfunded candidate in a state that never has elected a Libertarian to statewide
office.17
29
Race Notes:
Chambliss is facing a real challenge from Martin. As Charlie Cook said, “Bad political
environments tend to produce surprises.”
By mid-October, Chambliss’ early lead dropped from double- to single-digits.
Democrats remain angry over the results of the 2002 Senate race, in which Chambliss upset
incumbent Democrat Max Cleland. They claim Chambliss and the Republicans questioned the
18
patriotism of Cleland, a triple-amputee Vietnam War veteran.
Most polls on the Senate race show a tightening battle between Chambliss and Martin, but they
rarely mention Buckley, the Libertarian. However, there is always the possibility of a runoff in a
three-way political contest in Georgia.
A Dec. 2 runoff would be required if neither candidate gets a majority of the vote.
An under-funded Buckley could have a major impact on the race if he draws more than 3 percent
of the vote and Chambliss and Martin run neck-and-neck, with neither breaking 50 percent.
Buckley pulled 2.1 percent of the vote in his last Senate bid in 2004.
The race carries an unusual dynamic in an election year when national Democrats are trying to
cement a filibuster-proof 60-vote “super majority” in the U.S. Senate. It’s possible that Georgia
will make the country wait to find out if the Democrats will get to 60.
“This becomes the center of the universe for the next four weeks if Georgia is the 60th seat,” said
University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock said. “You’ll have Barack Obama
campaigning here. You’ll have Sarah Palin campaigning here.”
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already pumped more than $500,000 into
television ads attacking Chambliss.19
Recently, Martin has stepped up his attacks, criticizing Chambliss for his bailout vote and loyalty
to Bush.20
Once considered a safe bet for re-election to a second term, Chambliss suddenly appears
vulnerable amid a wave of anti-incumbent frustration and economic turmoil.21
Martin has been running television ads throughout the state but trails Chambliss in fundraising.
Chambliss maintains an edge as the well-funded GOP incumbent in a conservative state.22
The state seems to be trending more Republican: witness the big re-election victory of Gov.
Sonny Perdue (R) against the big Democratic wave of 2006.23
Chambliss and Martin are actually old Sigma Chi fraternity brothers from 40 years back at the
University of Georgia.24
Chamblis, seeking a second term, was unopposed in the primary.25
Martin entered the Senate race late and only after being urged to do so by national Democratic
Party leaders who pledged to help fund his campaign.
Martin, a former state representative, received 34% of the vote in a five-way primary, and was
then nominated with 60% in a runoff.26
30
Analysis:
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball 2008
Here is a potential shocker, if the upset actually happens. One-term GOP Senator Saxby
Chambliss, who was expected to win reelection handily in deeply Red Georgia, instead finds
himself in a close race with an underfunded Democrat, former State Representative Jim Martin.
There is no question that this is a reaction to Chambliss' vote in favor of the rescue/bailout
package passed by Congress a few weeks ago. Several polls show Chambliss barely ahead,
sometimes within the statistical margin of error.
Our Georgia sources suggest tentatively that Chambliss will pull out a narrow victory, but they are
not confident in this prediction. Chambliss' television advertising is bland and does not address
the key issues on the minds of voters. By contrast, the flush Democratic Senate Campaign
Committee has been airing sharp, tough advertising aimed at Chambliss and on behalf of Martin.
It would be phenomenal were this upset to occur, and it might be the 59th or 60th seat for
27
Democrats, should it happen.
Senate Race Ratings Chart
Analysis by
The Cook Political Report
Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Congressional Quarterly
The Rothenberg Political Report
Georgia
Race Rating
Toss Up
Barely Leans Republican
Leans Republican
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party
Recent Poll Results
Pollster
Dates
N/Pop Chambliss Martin Buckley Other Undecided Margin
InsiderAdvantage 10/23/08
615
LV
44
42
2
-
12
+2R
Rasmussen
10/22/08
500
LV
47
45
1
-
7
+2R
SurveyUSA
10/1112/08
547
LV
46
43
6
-
5
+3R
InsiderAdvantage
10/9/08
531
LV
45
45
-
2
8
0
Rasmussen
10/7/08
500
LV
50
44
2
-
4
+6R
Election Results
Candidate
2002
general
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
1,071,153
53%
$7,743,004
931,857
46%
$9,116,775
26,981
1%
Saxby Chambliss
(R)
300,371
61%
Bob Irvin (R)
132,132
27%
59,109
12%
1,103,993
49%
Saxby Chambliss
(R)
Max Cleland (D)
Other
2002
primary
Robert Brown (R)
1996
Max Cleland (D)
$2,926,391
31
general
Guy Millner (R)
Other
1,073,969
48%
81,270
4%
$9,858,955
32
Georgia 8th District
Jim Marshall (D) Incumbent
Born: 03/31/1948, Ithaca, NY
Home: Macon
Education: BA Princeton University, 1972; JD Boston University, 1977
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Camille)
Elected Office: Mayor of Macon, 1995-99
Professional Career: Law Professor
Jim Marshall was born in Ithaca, N.Y., and lives in Macon. The son and grandson of Army
generals, Marshall spent his early years moving from one Army post to another.
He won a National Merit Scholarship while attending high school in Mobile, Ala., and began his
college work at Princeton University. He interrupted his studies to enlist in the Army in 1968,
serving as a reconnaissance platoon sergeant in Vietnam.
Marshall returned to Princeton in 1972 after concluding his tour of duty, earning his
undergraduate degree. He graduated with a law degree from Boston University Law School in
1977.
A job as law clerk for a federal district judge brought him to Macon, where he became a professor
of law at Mercer University. He ran successfully for mayor of Macon in 1995.
He did not seek re-election in 1999, choosing to prepare instead for his first congressional
campaign in 2000. He lost that race to Republican Saxby Chambliss. But he won the seat two
years later, when Chambliss abandoned the post to run for Senate.
In October 2003, he underwent successful surgery for prostate cancer. He also has survived
several bouts with skin cancer.
The congressman suspects the cancer may have resulted from an exposure to Agent Orange
during the Vietnam War, where he was a wounded and decorated veteran.
Marshall was wooed by Democrats to seek the Senate seat being vacated in January 2005 by
Zell Miller, but he ultimately opted to remain in the House.
Marshall is among the most conservative Democrats in the U.S. House, a fiscal and budget hawk
who frequently splits with his party.
In 2008, Democrat Robert Nowak challenged Marshall in the 2008 Democratic primary, saying
Marshall had moved to far to the right. But Marshall easily won the race with 86 percent of the
vote.
Marshall is married to Camille Hope, a federal bankruptcy trustee. They have two children.28
Rick Goddard (R)
Born: 1944-7-5, Ogden, UT
Home: Warner Robins
Education: BA University of Utah, 1966; MBA Central Michigan University, 1975
Religion: N/A
Marital Status: Married (Judy)
Elected Office: No prior elected office
Professional Career: Retired Military USAF, 1966-2000
33
Richard "Rick" Neil Goddard was born in Ogden, Utah, and he now resides in Warner Robins. He
earned a bachelor's from the University of Utah in 1966 and an master's in business at Central
Michigan University in 1975.
Goddard entered the Air Force after graduating from college in 1966. He was a fighter pilot in the
Vietnam War and retired from a nearly 34-year military career in 2000 as commanding general at
Robins Air Force Base.
Goddard is on leave during his campaign from his job as vice president and chief technology
officer at Mercer University in Macon.
Goddard and his wife, Judy, have three sons.
Rick Goddard and his wife, Judy, have long been involved in central Georgia politics. Judy is a
former chairman of the Houston County Republican Party, and Goddard has been rumored as a
potential congressional candidate for several years.29
Race Notes:
In a year marked by national Democratic gains, Marshall in 2006 was one of a few Democrats
who barely survived Election Day.
A GOP-led redistricting plan forced him to run last time in a redrawn district in middle Georgia, but
Marshall’s two years of experience within the new boundaries have given supporters reason to
believe 2008 will be easier for him.
Republican hopes of overtaking the seat rest on Rick Goddard, the former commander of the Air
Force base that’s one of the region’s biggest employers.30
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Percent Expenditures
Jim Marshall (D)
80,660
51%
$1,849,155
Mac Collins (R)
78,908
49%
$1,981,928
2006 primary
Jim Marshall (D)
Unopposed
2004 general
Jim Marshall (D)
136,273
63%
$1,307,926
Calder Clay (R)
80,435
37%
$1,054,493
Prior winning percentages:
2002 (51%)
34
35
Indiana
Electoral Votes:
11
Battleground state
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
6:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
6:00 and 7:00 PM ET
All counties close at 6:00PM local. 12 counties in CTZ close at 7:00PM ET including: Gibson,
Jasper, Lake, Laporte, Newton, Perry, Porter, Posey, Spencer, Starke, Vanderburgh, and Warrick.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
1,479,438
59.94
Kerry
969,011
39.26
Other
19,553
0.79
510,427
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
59.94%
39.26%
2000
56.65%
41.01%
1996
47.13%
41.55%
1992
42.91%
36.79%
1988
59.84%
39.69%
1984
61.67%
37.68%
1980
56.01%
37.65%
Democrats
Primary Date:
May 6
Clinton
50.6%
Obama
49.4%
Republicans
Primary Date:
McCain
Huckabee
Paul
May 6
77.6%
10.0%
7.7%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Mitch Daniels (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
5
4
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
17
33
0
State House
51
49
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
4,409,399
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
4,732,666
VEP Turnout 2004
55.69%
6,345,289
Total population
15 of 51 (states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
795,441
12.5%
65 years and over
5,300,538
83.5%
Non-Hispanic White
571,685
9.0%
Black
86,079
1.4%
Asian
315,089
5.0%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Indianapolis
795,458
Fort Wayne
251,247
Evansville
116,253
Rate
Rate Rank
9th highest in U.S.
State Rate
6.2%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$47,448
U.S.
$50,740
36
Indiana – Battleground State
Many polls show the race between Obama and Republican John McCain is a tossup in Indiana.
Still, Indiana Republicans remain confident of keeping the state in the GOP column for McCain
even as Obama keeps up an unprecedented campaign for the state's 11 electoral votes.
The McCain campaign has ramped up its activities in recent weeks and started airing television
commercials in Indiana after going months without responding to Obama's organizing and
advertising efforts.
Republicans, though, are also relying on the state's long-standing conservative leanings -- most
31
prominently displayed in its 40-year run of backing GOP presidential nominees. Republicans
have won every presidential election in Indiana since 1968 with an average of 61 percent of the
vote.
Indiana voters, most of whom weren't alive for the state's last presidential squeaker 60 years ago
(Republican Thomas Dewey over Democrat Harry Truman by less than a percentage point), are
32
amazed that candidates are coming to their state.
Johnson was the last Democrat to carry Indiana, in 1964. Before that, you have to go back to
1936 and Franklin D. Roosevelt. Indiana's historic Jeffersonian tendencies and suspicion of big
government endure, and while it has strong Democratic underpinnings on the local, state and
congressional level, this is a state that has been loath to send a Democrat to the White House.33
The financial crisis helped reframe the priorities of the presidential campaign and drew attention
to Indiana's economic struggles.
Elkhart, near the Michigan border in an area known as Michiana, is the white-hot center of the
meltdown of the American economy. Its main industries, the manufacturing of recreational
vehicles and motor homes, have fallen apart over the last year because of high gasoline prices.
That has taken down ancillary businesses like R.V. parts suppliers and storage warehouses.
The jobless rate in Elkhart has increased more than in any metropolitan area in the country; it
rose over 4.8 percentage points from August 2007 to August 2008. According to labor statistics
released this summer, nearly 10,000 people were out of work, a rate of 9.3 percent.34
Obama has some built-in advantages in Indiana. Indiana is next door to Illinois--his home base-and the two states share media markets. He can count on lots of support among the steel
foundries and blighted minority communities in the state’s north-west, which is close to Chicago
and has sizeable union rolls. Indianapolis, a city of 790,000 with its own large black population, is
also Democratic territory, as is Bloomington, home to the University of Indiana’s flagship campus.
But Democrats always do pretty well in these areas. In order to carry the state, Obama will have
to win elsewhere, too.
Indianapolis’s suburbs, like Lawrence Township, adjoin some of the most Republican counties in
the state. But this land of big houses, well-off whites and, nowadays, political yard signs
resembles suburban battlegrounds all over the country. From Indianapolis north, factory towns
such as Kokomo sit amid acres of cornfields. Manufacturing, especially of steel and cars,
accounts for over a quarter of the state’s output, despite its bucolic reputation. But Indiana’s
factories are shedding jobs, which could convince working-class whites to consider Obama.
South of Indianapolis, the state feels more like Kentucky and the old South, its hilly landscape
dotted with livestock, roadside churches and small rural towns such as Martinsville, where, one
could reasonably estimate, tattoos outnumber people.
Obama probably won’t swing Martinsville’s Morgan County, which voted for Bush by 48 points in
2004. His Indiana campaign nevertheless opened an office there on October 6th. With waves of
37
new voter registrations, existing campaign networks and, of course, more money, Obama has
out-organized McCain. He has also been able to "borrow" organization from Illinois, sending
35
volunteers over the border to canvas neighborhoods.
Across the state, the Obama campaign has 44 field offices. In 2004, John Kerry had none.
Jonathan Swain, communications director for Obama's Indiana campaign, said Obama is the first
Democratic presidential candidate to campaign in the state in October since Lyndon Johnson in
36
1964. Swain said the state is very competitive, even in the culturally conservative south.
Obama needs a strong showing in Lake County if he is to win the state, which no Democratic
presidential candidate has done since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Lake County, Indiana's second most populous county, is friendly territory for the senator from
neighboring Illinois. It has gone for the Republican presidential candidate only once since 1960 -Richard Nixon in 1972 -- and its population is Indiana's most diverse, at 26 percent black and 14
percent Hispanic. The city of Gary, which overwhelmingly supported Obama in the primary, is 85
37
percent black.
Also keep an eye on Vigo County. Vigo County on the western border of Indiana is the ultimate
bellwether area, luring political pundits from across America because of its uncanny ability to
predict the outcome of presidential elections.
The voters in this small county, which is centred on the industrial town of Terre Haute, have
picked the winner in every presidential election in the last century, going back to 1892, with just
two exceptions (1908 and 1952).
Even more remarkable is Vigo County's voting record since 1960. Five other counties have joined
Vigo in picking the winner in every election since then, but only Vigo County has matched the
national vote with the same margin plus or minus three percentage points.38
A record 4.5 million voters are registered in Indiana this year, and Republican Secretary of State
Todd Rokita has encouraged early voting to ease congestion on Election Day. More than 221,000
absentee ballots had been cast statewide as of Oct. 24.39
Several of the state's largest counties have already surpassed their early voting totals from four
years ago in a sign of the high interest in this year's presidential race.
Lake, Monroe, Porter, Vanderburgh and Vigo counties were among those whose early voting
figures already topped 2004.40
38
Indiana – Governor Race
Mitch Daniels (R) Incumbent
Elected 2004, 1st term up Jan. 2009
Born: 04-07-1949, Monongahela, PA
Home: Indianapolis
Education: Princeton U., B.A. 1971, Georgetown U., J.D. 1979
Marital Status: married (Cheri)
Professional Career: Advisor, Mayor of Indianapolis Richard Lugar, 1971-76; Chief of Staff, U.S.
Sen. Lugar, 1976-82; Exec. Dir., NRSC, 1983-84; senior adv., White House, 1985-87; CEO,
Hudson Institute, 1987-90; executive, Eli Lilly, 1990-2001; Dir., OMB, 2001-02.
Elected office: governor of Indiana, 2005 -.
Mitchell "Mitch" Daniels was born in Pennsylvania, lived in Georgia and Tennessee and moved
with his family to Indiana while he was still in grade school.41
Daniels worked as a staffer for Richard Lugar when he was mayor of Indianapolis in the early
1970s, as chief of staff for Lugar from 1976 to 1983 when he was in the Senate, and then as
political director in the Reagan White House.
In 1987, he returned to Indianapolis to work at the Hudson Institute and then went to work for the
Eli Lilly company in 1990 where he climbed to the rank of president of Lilly's North American
pharmaceutical operations.
Daniels was elected Governor of Indiana in 2004, the first time he ever ran for public office.42
Before becoming governor, Daniels was director of the Office of Management and Budget.43
Bush nicknamed him "The Blade" for trying to protect taxpayers from excessive spending.44
Governing magazine named Daniels its 2008 “Public Official of the Year.”45
Sensing some vulnerability, the Republican Governors Association gave $725,000 to his reelection campaign in July.46
Former Rep. Jill Long Thompson (D)
Born: Warsaw, Ind., 07-15-1952
Home: Argos, IN
Education: B.S., Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, Ind., 1974; M.B.A., Indiana University,
Bloomington, Ind., 1978; Ph.D., Indiana University
Marital Status: married (Don)
Professional Career: assistant instructor and lecturer, Indiana University, Bloomington, 19771980; assistant professor Valparaiso University, 1981-1986, 1987-1988; adjunct professor,
Indiana University/Purdue University-Fort Wayne, 1987-1989; Undersecretary of Agriculture in
Clinton administration, 1995-2001.
Elected office: member, Valparaiso, Ind., city council, 1984-1986; United States Representative,
1989-199547
Jill Long Thompson grew up on the family farm outside of Larwill, IN.
Long Thompson was the first in her family to graduate from college.48
In 1986, Long Thompson ran for U.S. Senate, losing to Dan Quayle.
In 1988, she lost a bid for the U.S. House to Republican Dan Coats.
49
39
In 1989, she was elected in a special election to represent Northeast Indiana in Congress,
50
capturing a "safe" Republican seat once held by Quayle.
In 1994, Long Thompson lost her bid for a fourth term as Republicans picked up a slew of
51
congressional seats across the country.
Long Thompson spent five years as Undersecretary of Agriculture under Bill Clinton.
She lives with her husband Don Thompson, a commercial airline pilot, in on a farm near Argos,
IN.52
Race Notes:
The contest is leaning toward Mitch Daniels.53
Daniels has had tepid approval ratings for much of his tenure, but his state generally leans
Republican.54
Three recent statewide polls show Daniels and former congresswoman Jill Long Thompson in a
tight race, one of five competitive governor's races nationwide this year.
Long Thompson narrowly won a contentious May primary, but her cash-strapped campaign
hasn't been able to keep up with Daniels and took its ads off the air for six weeks after Labor Day.
Critics say Long Thompson's approach has been long on attacks against Daniels but short on
specific reasons she would be a better governor.
The Indianapolis Star, in endorsing Daniels, called Long Thompson's run "one of the more
ineffective and frustrating statewide campaigns in memory."55
Long Thompson trails Daniels in fundraising by millions. Most of the money she has raised has
come from special-interest groups in Washington, D.C.56
Election Results
Candidate
2004 general
2000 general
Mitch Daniels (R)
1,302,907
53%
Joe Kernan (D)
1,113,879
45%
31,717
1%
Mitch Daniels (R)
335,228
66%
Eric Miller (R)
169,930
34%
1,232,525
57%
908,285
42%
38,458
1%
Other
2004 primary
Total Votes
Frank O'Bannon (D)
David McIntosh (R)
Other
40
41
Kentucky
Electoral Votes:
8
Solid Republican (Cook Rating)
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
6:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
7:00 PM ET
Majority of state is in ETZ and closes at 6:00PM ET, but a large number of counties are in CTZ and
close at 7:00PM ET.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
1,069,439
59.55%
Kerry
712,733
39.69%
Other
13,710
0.76%
356,706
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
59.55%
39.69%
2000
56.50%
41.37%
1996
44.88%
45.84%
1992
41.34%
44.55%
1988
55.52%
43.88%
1984
60.01%
39.40%
1980
49.07%
47.61%
Democrats
Primary Date:
May. 20
Clinton
65.5%
Obama
29.9%
Edwards
2.0%
Republicans
Primary Date:
May. 20
McCain
72.3%
Huckabee
8.3%
Paul
6.8%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Steven Beshear (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
2
4
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
15
22
1
State House
63
36
1
Voter Registration
Democratic
1,656,242
Republican
1,049,459
Other
188,598
0
Total
2,894,299
As Of
9/15/2008
VEP 2008
3,232,137
VEP Turnout 2004
59.71%
4,241,474
Total population
State Pop. Rank
549,504
13.0%
65 years and over
3,732,220
88.0%
Non-Hispanic White
326,930
7.7%
Black
42,203
1.0%
Asian
94,626
2.2%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Louisville
557,789
Lexington
279,044
Owensboro
55,398
Rate
Rate Rank
38th highest in U.S.
State Rate
7.1%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$40,267
U.S.
$50,740
42
KENTUCKY – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) Incumbent
Born: 02-20-1942, Sheffield, AL
Home: Louisville
Education: U. of Louisville, B.A. 1964, U. of KY, J.D. 1967
Religion: Baptist
Marital status: married (Elaine Chao)
Elected Office: Jefferson Cnty. Judge Exec., 1977–84.
Professional Career: Chief Legis. Asst., U.S. Sen. Marlow Cook, 1968–70; Dpty. Asst. U.S. Atty.
Gen., 1974–75.
Sen. McConnell is seeking a fifth term. McConnell, Kentucky’s senior senator, is the Senate
Minority Leader.
Addison Mitchell "Mitch" McConnell was born in Tuscumbia, Ala., and grew up in Louisville, Ky.,
which he still calls home. He overcame polio as a child and graduated from Manual High School.
McConnell received a bachelor's degree from the University of Louisville in 1964 and a law
degree from the University of Kentucky law school in 1967.
He was a legislative assistant to then-Sen. Marlow Cook, R-Ky., from 1968 to 1970.57
He served in the Ford administration Justice Department and then moved back to Louisville.
In 1977, he was elected to the influential position of judge-executive of Jefferson County, Ky., and
was re-elected in 1981. It was the springboard from which he launched his Senate career.
McConnell was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1984, with 50 percent of the vote, when he
defeated Democratic incumbent Walter Huddleston in a fierce contest.
McConnell underwent triple-bypass heart surgery in February 2003 after a stress test and other
screenings revealed blockages.
He was re-elected in 1990 against former Louisville Mayor Harvey Sloane. McConnell received
52 percent of the vote to 48 percent for Sloane.
McConnell was again re-elected in 1996 with 55 percent of the vote, defeating Democrat Steve
Beshear and was re-elected in 2002 with 64 percent of the vote against Democrat Lois Combs
Weinberg.
McConnell was chosen as Senate Majority whip in November 2002, the No. 2 position in the
Senate. In November 2006 he became Republican leader.58
No Kentucky Republican has ever served longer in the U.S. Senate.59 He is only the second
member of Congress from Kentucky to lead his party in the Senate.60
McConnell is perhaps best known as an opponent of campaign finance reform. McConnell
contends limits on spending and political advertising violate the constitutional rights of free
speech and political activity.
While McConnell has been a staunch congressional ally of President Bush, he parted with the
president on legislation that would have made millions of illegal immigrants eligible for lawful
status. McConnell helped block the bill in June 2007.
McConnell has three daughters from his first marriage. In 1993, he married Elaine Chao, who
61
President Bush tapped to be Labor Secretary in 2001.
43
Bruce Lunsford (D)
Born: 11/11/1947, Kenton County, KY
Home: Louisville
Education: BA University of Kentucky, 1969; JD Northern Kentucky University, 1974
Marital status: Divorced
Professional Career: treasurer of Kentucky Democratic Party, Deputy Development Secretary.
Head of Commerce Cabinet, Greenebaum, Doll & McDonald law firm, Kindred Healthcare
founder.
Bruce Lunsford was born in Kenton County, Ky., and grew up on a northern Kentucky tobacco
farm. He currently resides in Louisville.
He received his bachelor's degree in political science from the University of Kentucky in 1969 and
his law degree from Northern Kentucky University in 1974.
Lunsford served as commerce secretary in the administration of former Gov. John Y. Brown Jr. in
the early 1980s.
In 1984, Lunsford was a founder of Vencor, a company that operated nursing homes. The
company rose to Fortune 500 status, but spiraled into bankruptcy in 1999. Vencor emerged from
bankruptcy in 2001 and was renamed Kindred Healthcare.
Lunsford is chairman and chief executive officer of Lunsford Capital, a Louisville private
investment firm.62
Lunsford made his first bid for public office in 2003 when he ran for the Democratic gubernatorial
nomination. After spending nearly $8 million, much of it from his own pocket, Lunsford dropped
out of the race four days before the primary after one of his opponents—Rep. Ben Chandler—ran
a television ad that accused him of being indifferent to allegations of abuse at one of his nursing
homes.
Lunsford ran for his party’s gubernatorial nod again in 2007, but placed second in a six-way field
with 21 percent.63
In the contest to challenge Mitch McConnell, Bruce Lunsford handily defeated seven other
Democrats on May 20, including Greg Fischer, a Louisville entrepreneur who made a fortune
partly by co-inventing an ice and beverage dispenser now commonplace in restaurants.
Lunsford launched his Senate campaign on Jan. 29, just beating the filing deadline.64
He also is a thoroughbred horse owner and breeder and partner in a Louisville film production
company.
Lunsford is divorced and has three daughters.65
44
Race Notes:
Only a month ago, Bruce Lunsford looked like a bad bet to unseat the most powerful Republican
on Capitol Hill. A businessman who twice failed to become Kentucky's governor, Democrat
Lunsford seemed not much of a match for minority leader Mitch McConnell, who has spent 24
years in the Senate.
McConnell's campaign has raised nearly $18 million, while Lunsford had to loan $5.5 million to
his. But where polls as recently as mid-September were showing Lunsford running 13 or more
points behind McConnell, several since then suggest the race is very close, and the national
Democratic Party has begun pouring TV money into a state it had all but written off.66
If the Democrats are to realize their dream goal of a 60-seat “filibuster-proof” majority, they will
probably need to knock off McConnell, the Minority Leader who has used his 49-Republican
67
minority to thwart Democratic initiatives.
Democrats would relish knocking off McConnell as payback for the 2004 defeat of their leader,
68
Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota.
Although there are numerous leadership shake-up scenarios, most agree that the current No. 2,
Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), would be the lead candidate to replace McConnell.69
McConnell still retains a significant cash advantage over Lunsford, and Kentucky is a
conservative, Republican-leaning state, but polls show the two candidates within a few points of
each other.70
Lunsford traces the sharp turn in his fortunes to a single moment: "When they passed a bailout
for Wall Street, it seems people all of a sudden got really focused."71
McConnell's vote for the bailout plan didn't play well in Kentucky.72 Lunsford, has sidestepped
saying how he would have voted on the bailout, but says he would have been "hard-pressed" to
support it. McConnell supported it.73
In early September, McConnell seemed a shoo-in for a fifth term, with polls giving him a doubledigit lead over an unpopular challenger. But the state of the economy is hurting him.
The Democratic Party and Lunsford have launched ads linking the senator to financial
deregulation and Wall Street greed. In recent weeks, Lunsford's campaign has tried, through a
series of commercials, to capitalize on voters' angst over economic turmoil.
McConnell trounced his last two challengers, including the current governor, Steve Beshear. But
handicappers predicted McConnell would have a tougher race this year because of his ties to
President Bush.74
Lunsford, a millionaire Louisville businessman, is making his third run for office. He has remained
haunted by his first campaign for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2003 -- a sometimes
vitriolic battle with Ben Chandler that ended with Lunsford dropping out of the race and later
endorsing Republican candidate Ernie Fletcher.75
McConnell's campaign has hammered Lunsford for months with negative commercials.76
McConnell’s campaign aired an ad that hits Lunsford on allegations that a company the Democrat
ran until last November provided poor medical treatment to veterans.
Vencor is still a thorn in Lunsford’s side, at least politically. While he reorganized the company in
1999, spinning off the nursing homes, Vencor was charged with perpetrating massive fraud in
excess of $2 billion and eventually settled the case for $219 million. This issue was also aired on
77
the campaign trail.
45
Analysis:
The rotten national environment for Republicans and the financial meltdown on Wall Street have
boomeranged especially hard on a legislative leader like McConnell. Kentucky is a conservative
state, but it has a populist streak in times like this.
The other GOP senator from the Bluegrass State, Jim Bunning, has won extremely tight victories
in his two previous elections. Even McConnell has rarely been overwhelmingly popular in the
state. Since his first close election in 1984 against a Democratic incumbent (courtesy of the
Reagan reelection landslide), he has had only one truly easy race, in 2002 when he won by close
to two-to-one against weak opposition. McConnell's usual level of voter support has hovered
around 55 percent.
Can Lunsford pull off the upset of the 2008 Senate cycle? It is now within the realm of possibility,
though we are not yet ready to declare McConnell on his way out. To the contrary, the incumbent
is a wily politician who has raised the many millions he needs to compete fully against a wealthy
opponent.
McConnell knows how to win tough contests, and he can slug it out with the best of them on the
ground for those critical few votes that can make the difference. Finally, his old party adversary
John McCain--with whom he has clashed repeatedly over campaign finance reform--will win
Kentucky handily, ironically providing a few yards of coattail to McConnell.78
Analysis by
Kentucky
Race Rating
Lean R
Barely Leans Republican
Leans Republican
Recent Poll Results
Pollster
Dates
N/Pop McConnell Lunsford Other Undecided Margin
10/21/08
500
LV
50
43
3
5
+7R
HeraldLeader/WKYT/Research
2000
10/1921/08
600
LV
47
43
-
10
+4R
SurveyUSA
10/1820/08
535
LV
48
48
-
4
0
Rasmussen
9/30/08
500
LV
51
42
2
5
+9R
9/2225/08
717
LV
45
44
-
-
+1R
Rasmussen
Mason-Dixon
46
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
2002 general Mitch McConnell (R)
Lois Combs
Weinberg (D)
2002
primary
731,679
65%
$5,336,099
399,634
35%
$2,244,035
Mitch McConnell (R)
Unopposed
1996 general Mitch McConnell (R)
724,794
55%
$5,031,293
560,012
43%
$2,073,794
22,240
2%
Steven L. Beshear
(D)
Other
Prior winning
percentages:
1990 (52%); 1984 (50%)
Kentucky 3rd District
John Yarmuth (D) Incumbent
Born: 11/04/1947, Louisville, KY
Home: Louisville
Education: BA Yale University, 1969
Religion: Jewish
Marital Status: Married (Catherine)
Professional Career: Newspaper Publisher
John Yarmuth was born in Louisville. He graduated from high school in 1965 and earned a
bachelor's in American studies at Yale University.
Then a Republican, Yarmuth became an aide to GOP U.S. Sen. Marlow Cook.
In 1976, Yarmuth founded Louisville Today magazine, starting a six-year stint at the magazine.
Saying the Republican Party no longer welcomed diverse views, Yarmuth joined the Democratic
Party in 1985.
After working at the University of Louisville and a home health care company, Yarmuth founded
the weekly alternative publication LEO in 1990, where he was a regular columnist. LEO was sold
in 2003, but Yarmuth continued writing columns for the paper until becoming a candidate for
Congress.
He was elected to Congress in 2006, riding a wave of opposition to President Bush and the Iraq
war to oust a five-term Republican incumbent.
Yarmuth and his wife, Catherine, have one son.79
Anne Northup (R)
Born: 01/22/1948, Louisville, KY
Home: Louisville
Education: BA St. Mary's College, 1970
Religion: Catholic
47
Marital Status: Married (Robert)
Elected Office: KY House, 1987-96; US House, 1996-2006
Professional Career: Teacher
Anne Northup, 60, was born in Louisville, the second-oldest of 11 children, and still lives in her
hometown. She graduated from St. Mary's College, Notre Dame, Ind., where she met her
husband, Robert "Woody" Northup, who attended Notre Dame. Northup taught math and worked
at Ford Motor Co. before entering politics.
After stints as a math teacher and Ford Motor Co. employee, Northup entered politics. She
served in the Kentucky House from 1987 until 1996, when she won election to Congress,
narrowly defeating first-term Democratic Rep. Mike Ward in a Democratic-leaning district.
She served five terms in Congress. Northup was a frequent target of national Democrats but
defeated a series of challengers until losing to Democrat John Yarmuth in 2006.
After her loss, Northup quickly jumped into another election, seeking the GOP gubernatorial
nomination in 2007. She lost to then-incumbent Ernie Fletcher, who later lost in the general
election.
Northup and her husband have five living children; a son, Joshua, 30, died of natural causes in
2006.80
Race Notes:
Seeking to reclaim the Louisville-centered district she represented for a decade, Northup is
targeting Yarmuth’s vote for the $700 billion financial rescue law and some of the freshman’s
budget votes as examples of what she views as fiscal profligacy and pro-tax views.
Yarmuth, who voted against an initial version of the bailout, which the House defeated, said he
“was faced with two awful choices: voting for a bill that I hate or doing nothing to stop an
economic meltdown.”
Yarmuth is looking to avoid the fate of Kentucky Democrat Mike Ward, the former one-term
congressman whom Northup unseated in 1996. But Yarmuth merits the edge in this politically
competitive territory.81
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
2004 general
John Yarmuth (D)
122,489
51%
$2,224,248
Anne Northup (R)
116,568
48%
$3,421,281
2,908
1%
John Yarmuth (D)
30,962
54%
Andrew Horne (D)
18,662
32%
James Moore (D)
4,582
8%
Burrel Farnsley (D)
3,322
6%
Anne Northup (R)
197,736
60%
$3,339,760
Tony Miller (D)
124,040
38%
$1,221,092
6,363
2%
Other
2006 primary
Total Votes
Other
48
49
South Carolina
Electoral Votes:
8
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Likely Republican (Cook Rating)
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
937,974
57.98%
Kerry
661,699
40.90%
Other
18,057
1.12%
276,275
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
57.98%
40.90%
2000
56.84%
40.90%
1996
49.79%
43.96%
1992
48.02%
39.88%
1988
61.50%
37.58%
1984
63.55%
35.57%
1980
49.42%
48.14%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Jan. 19
Obama
55.4%
Clinton
26.5%
Edwards
17.6%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Jan. 19
McCain
33.2%
Huckabee
29.8%
Romney
15.3%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Mark Sanford (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
2
4
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
19
27
0
State House
51
72
1
7:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
2,474,601
As Of
10/1/2008
VEP 2008
619,477
VEP Turnout 2004
70.13%
4,407,709
Total population
24
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
573,098
13.0%
65 years and over
2,877,557
65.3%
Non-Hispanic White
1,266,225
28.7%
Black
53,105
1.2%
Asian
168,920
3.8%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Columbia
124,818
Charleston
110,015
North Charleston
91,421
Rate
Rate Rank
22nd highest in U.S.
State Rate
7.3%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$43,329
U.S.
$50,740
50
51
Vermont
Electoral Votes:
3
First Polls Open:
5:00 AM ET
Solid Dem (Cook Rating)
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
184,067
58.94%
Bush
121,180
38.80%
Other
7,062
2.26%
62,887
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
38.80%
58.94%
2000
40.70%
50.63%
1996
31.09%
53.35%
1992
30.42%
46.11%
1988
51.10%
47.58%
1984
57.92%
40.81%
1980
44.36%
38.42%
Democrats
Primary Date:
March. 04
Obama
59.4%
Clinton
38.7%
Edwards
1.3%
Republicans
Primary Date:
March. 04
McCain
72.0%
Huckabee
14.4%
Paul
6.7%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Jim Douglas (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
0
1
U.S. House
1
0
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
23
7
0
State House
93
49
8
7:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
435,697
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
498,717
VEP Turnout 2004
66.19%
621,254
Total population
49
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
84,425
13.6 %
65 years and over
591,973
95.3%
Non-Hispanic White
5,151
0.8%
Black
7,179
1.2%
Asian
8,170
1.3%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Burlington
38,531
South Burlington
17,445
Rutland
16,826
Rate
1 in every 51,593 households
Rate Rank
State Rate
5.2%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$49,907
U.S.
$50,740
52
Vermont – Governor Race
Gov. Jim Douglas (R) Incumbent
Elected 2002, 3d term up Jan. 2009
Born: 06-21-1951, Springfield, MA
Home: Middlebury
Education: Middlebury Col., B.A. 1972
Religion: Congregationalist
Marital Status: married (Dorothy)
Elected Office: VT House of Reps., 1972-79; Maj. Ldr., 1977-79; VT Secy. of St., 1980-92; VT
Treasurer, 1994-2002
Douglas grew up in Longmeadow, Massachusetts, a political junkie and a strong Republican,
passing out AuH2O stickers for Barry Goldwater in 1964, at 13.
Douglas’s college years were a time of campus protests against the Vietnam War, but he became
an active Republican and organized a rally for President Richard Nixon in Middlebury in 1970.
In 1972, the year he graduated, he ran for state representative from Middlebury and was elected;
he was elected majority leader in 1977.
In between sessions of the legislature he worked as a radio announcer and became executive
director of the local United Way.
In 1980, he was elected secretary of state and served for 12 years.
In 1992, he ran against Senator Patrick Leahy and lost 54%-43% — the closest race Leahy has
had since 1980.
He served four terms as Vermont's state treasurer, starting in 1994.
Douglas has been on the Vermont ballot every two years since 1972
Douglas is running for his fourth two-year term as governor.82
VT House Speaker Gaye Symington (D)
Born: 04-20-1954, Boston, MA
Home: Jericho, VT
Education, B.A. Williams College, 1977; M.B.A, Cornell University, 1983
Marital Status: married (Chuck)
Elected office: Vermont House of Reps, 1996-present; Speaker of the Vermont House, 2005present
Symington was a senior fiscal manager for nonprofit groups before she was first elected to the
state House in 1996.83
She has served on the board of the Vermont Community Loan Fund and the Vermont Health and
Education Building Finance Agency.
She currently works at the Intervale Foundation in Burlington as the development director.
Symington has been re-elected every two years since 1996.
She has served two terms as speaker of the Vermont House.
In 2008, she opted not to seek re-election to the House and instead run for governor.
84
53
Race Notes:
85
Incumbent Gov. Jim Douglas (R) is favored to win.
Douglas’ politically moderate profile and modest personal manner have enabled him to win three
two-year terms as a Republican, overcoming the strong partisan trend that has given the
Democrats the upper hand in his home state’s politics.
His Democratic opponent, state lawmaker Gaye Symington, had to worry about losing a chunk of
the liberal vote to independent candidate Anthony Pollina, who has long been associated with
Vermont’s left-leaning Progressive Party and who has received the backing of several unions in
the state.
It wasn’t even clear until well into this campaign year that the Democrats would be able to draw a
top-tier opponent to Douglas. The names of six Democrats, including Symington, were floated.
Symington tried to argue that Douglas is afraid to take on political risks.
A Douglas victory would gain certainty if Pollina were to cut deeply into the vote Symington
otherwise would expect from the state’s liberal voters.
The past three governors of Vermont won three to five times.86
Douglas outspent Symington $108,000 to $54,000 in media buys.87
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Jim Douglas (R)
148,014
56%
Scudder Parker (D)
108,090
41%
6,420
2%
Other
2006 primary
Jim Douglas (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Jim Douglas (R)
181,540
59%
Peter Clavelle (D)
117,327
38%
10,418
3%
Other
54
55
Virginia
Electoral Votes:
13
First Polls Open:
6:00 AM ET
Battleground state
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
1,716,959
53.68
Kerry
1,454,742
45.48
Other
26,666
0.83
262,217
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
53.68%
45.48%
2000
52.47%
44.44%
1996
47.10%
45.15%
1992
44.97%
40.59%
1988
59.74%
39.23%
1984
62.29%
37.09%
1980
53.03%
40.31%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 12
Obama
63.7%
Clinton
35.5%
Edwards
0.5%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 12
McCain
50.0%
Huckabee
40.7%
Paul
4.5%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Timothy M. Kaine (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
3
8
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
21
19
0
State House
45
53
2
7:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
4,892,068
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
5,633,523
VEP Turnout 2004
61.50%
7,712,091
Total population
12
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
909,522
11.8%
65 years and over
5,186,726
67.3%
Non-Hispanic White
1,537,603
19.9%
Black
371,405
4.8%
Asian
508,217
6.6%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Virginia Beach
434,743
Norfolk
235,747
Chesapeake
219,154
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
4.3%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$59,562
U.S.
$50,740
56
Virginia – Battleground State
Virginia once appeared solidly in the McCain camp. Republican strategists knew the race would
be tighter there in 2008 than in past years, but were confident enough not to open a standalone
state headquarters and spent sparingly on advertising while pouring resources into other states.88
Those days are long gone.
The race for Virginia looked tight in September, but Obama has moved up in the polls and he has
lead McCain in the polls throughout October. Some recent polls have shown Obama up by as
many as 11 points, but University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato believes the race is
tighter than that.
"There have been so many surveys with Obama well ahead that it's not unreasonable to think
he's leading by at least a few points," he said. "[But] I don't know anybody who's nonpartisan who
believes Obama could win Virginia by 10 points."
However, the consensus is that McCain need Virginia much more than Obama does. "Obama
doesn't even need Virginia's electoral votes. It's McCain who finds them absolutely essential,"
89
Sabato said. "He has almost no margin for error.” McCain's path to the White House is very
90
difficult without Virginia's 13 electoral votes.
While the polls continue to favor Obama in Virginia, the Republicans have history on their side.91
Bush carried Virginia by 262,000 votes, or about 8 percentage points, in 2004. The state has
voted for only one Democratic presidential nominee since 1948.92 A Democratic presidential
nominee has not carried the state since 1964, but Obama has amassed what Virginia Democrats
see as the most comprehensive political organization in modern times for a statewide campaign.
Neither candidate is taking Virginia for granted, but Obama’s organization is far greater in scale
than McCain’s. Obama has opened almost 50 offices, dispatched more than 250 paid staffers
and recruited thousands of volunteers to knock on doors and call voters across the state. McCain
has 19 offices.
A recent Washington Post poll indicated that Obama's staff and volunteers have made staggering
gains in reaching out to Virginia's 5 million registered voters. More than half of all voters surveyed
said they have been contacted in person, on the phone or by e-mail or text message about voting
for Obama, far more than said so about McCain.93 On Oct. 28, Obama will make his ninth
general-election campaign trip to the state, holding rallies in Harrisonburg and in Norfolk.94
The candidates aren’t the only ones spending money in the state. In campaign finance reports
filed Oct. 21, the Virginia Democratic Party's coordinated campaign said it has spent $6.1 million
so far this year, including $2.5 million last month, on priming its efforts to turn out voters for
Obama and Democratic congressional candidates. The state party had $1.3 million in its federal
account as of Sept. 31, but that figure has likely swelled since then as donations continue to pour
in from across the country.
The Republican Party of Virginia had $156,000 in its federal account as of Sept. 30. But state
GOP chairman Jeffrey M. Frederick said the Republican National Committee has just transferred
more than $3 million to the state party to help finance get-out-the-vote efforts for McCain and
local candidates.
Despite the recent infusion of cash for the state party, Virginia Republicans concede they will
likely be outspent by Obama and the Democratic National Committee when it comes to getting
out the vote.95 Obama's ground game is being supplemented with a highly energized base of
supporters who could give him an advantage in the important get-out-the vote effort.
Obama looks to have an almost 2 to 1 advantage over McCain in Northern Virginia, surpassing,
in a recent poll, even the 60 percent mark that Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) and Sen. James Webb
96
(D-Va.) racked up in the region during their successful campaigns in 2005 and 2006.
57
Northern Virginia is the most populous region in the state, so if McCain considers it enemy
territory, he would have to run up large margins in the Hampton Roads area in the southeast and
less populated areas of Virginia to win on Election Day.97
Obama is also performing far better elsewhere in Virginia than Democrats have done in recent
state and federal elections. In a Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 22 to 25, Obama and
McCain each drew 48 percent of the vote outside Northern Virginia, a signal that Obama's
repeated visits, as well as his multimillion-dollar advertising blitz, has softened the GOP base in
the more rural parts of the state.
In the Washington Post poll, Obama held a 17-point lead in Hampton Roads, a crucial area in
Virginia elections.98
Hampton Roads is an amalgam of 17 cities and counties and 1.6 million people in southeastern
Virginia. The economy and the plight of urban areas are not the only key issues in Hampton
Roads. A large military footprint makes the war in Iraq and national defense a factor. A socially
conservative evangelical presence could swing votes on family values issues.
"All of Virginia comes together in Hampton Roads," says Charles Dunn, dean of the Robertson
School of Government at Regent University in Virginia Beach. "All of the dominant influences
throughout the state converge - conservative, economic, religious, military. It's the best
microcosm of the whole state."
Experts believe that vote-rich Hampton Roads - second in size only to Northern Virginia - may
decide whether the state's 13 electoral votes swing Republican or Democratic. In 2004, President
Bush beat Democrat John Kerry in Hampton Roads by 48,000 votes.
Most experts believe McCain, who leads polling in central and Southwest Virginia but trails
Obama in Northern Virginia, needs a solid win in Hampton Roads to have a chance of carrying
the commonwealth. He already has a firm base of support among the region's military voters.
The U.S. armed forces anchor Hampton Roads, with nearly 115,000 people who are active-duty
military or civilians doing defense- related work. The area is home to several large military
installations, including Norfolk Naval Station, the world's largest Navy base.
More than half the population of Hampton Roads resides in three of the state's largest cities Virginia Beach, Norfolk and Newport News. And Obama, who enjoys overwhelming support
among blacks, stands to pick up votes from the urban areas. Obama expects to do best among
the African-Americans who make up between 40 percent and 50 percent of the population in the
region's largest cities.
Hampton Roads also boasts a strong evangelical presence as the home of Regent University, the
conservative Christian school founded by religious broadcaster Pat Robertson. While McCain has
clashed in the past with the Christian right, his selection of the pro-life Palin as his running mate
has struck a chord with evangelicals that could boost his support in Republican strongholds such
as Virginia Beach and Chesapeake.
"The question is, what will be more important? The military votes for McCain, or the AfricanAmerican/youth vote for Obama?" political science professor Quentin Kidd of Christopher
Newport University said. "Whichever way one of those goes is the way Hampton Roads goes and Virginia goes."99
Suffolk, more than any other community in Hampton Roads, rocks its partisan allegiance back
and forth, unlike solidly Democratic neighbors Norfolk and Portsmouth and reliably Republican
Chesapeake.
58
In 2000, Suffolk narrowly supported Democrat Al Gore over President Bush, then sided with Bush
four years later. Two years ago, it supported Democrat Jim Webb in his shocking upset of
Republican Sen. George Allen. If the results are close in Suffolk, that means Virginia is likely to
go to Obama, said Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.100
In the Oct. 22-25 Washington Post poll, McCain was narrowly ahead in the Richmond area and in
the Shenandoah Valley and southwestern Virginia. Even in those areas, though, Obama was
101
breaking the 40 percent mark.
Obama shouldn’t be doing that well in Southwest Virginia. Southwest Virginia is conservative
country, a place where President Bush swept up 60 percent of the vote in 2004, compared with
54 percent statewide. With Virginia a battleground this year, McCain supporters are working to
hang on to those votes and possibly add to them, while Obama supporters are laboring to trim the
margin in hopes that a lead elsewhere in the state will put Obama over the top.
The heart of Southwest Virginia battleground runs from the Cumberland Gap across the coalfields
and up to the railroad city of Roanoke -- essentially the 9th Congressional District. Early October
polls showed Obama behind by double-digits in this area. In 2004, Bush won 59.5 percent of the
vote against Kerry in the 9th District.
However, Joe Lane, chairman of the political science department at Emory & Henry College in
Washington County, says it's possible Obama needs to pick up only a few thousand extra votes
in Southwest Virginia to win the state. It's also possible, if things go well for him in Northern
Virginia, that Obama may need only to hold McCain to the 60 percent that Bush received in the
region.
It's "somewhat far-fetched," he says, to think Obama can beat McCain in Southwest Virginia. To
be sure, if the Democratic primary is any indicator, Obama is not the first choice among the
region's Democrats: In February, Sen. Clinton trounced him, winning more than 80 percent of the
vote in some coalfield counties even as Obama won statewide.
Another point to consider: There is no large base of black voters for Obama to draw on. Blacks
account for only 1 percent to 4 percent of voters in many of the counties, and just 0.4 percent in
Dickenson and Lee counties.
While the primary battle against Clinton went awry in Southwest Virginia, Obama supporters say
it energized the party, driving several thousand people to register to vote. The Obama campaign
has more offices than McCain in Southwest Virginia. Obama has visited the area, campaigning in
Bristol and in Lebanon.102
Obama appears to have solidified the Democratic base in Virginia, drawing almost universal
support from African Americans and self-identified Democrats, and he has also made major
inroads with white voters in Virginia. McCain was winning white voters by 12 points in the
Washington Post poll, but Bush carried them by 36 percentage points in 2004.103
Obama leads in Washington's immediate neighbors -- Arlington, Alexandria and Fairfax County -and Fredericksburg. McCain probably has the edge in Spotsylvania and Stafford, which surround
Fredericksburg. There is a battle over the exurban swing counties of Loudoun and Prince
William.104
It seems clear that the Democratic ticket views the traditionally Republican outer suburbs, as well
as Hampton Roads, as battlegrounds in the race against McCain.
Separating Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia from conservative rural areas, the ring of
counties that stretch from Loudoun southeast to the Rappahannock River are filled with tens of
thousands of independent-minded voters who were drawn to the area by relatively affordable
housing, good schools and bigger plots of land.
59
In past presidential elections, these voters joined with longtime residents to support the GOP,
including favoring President Bush by nearly 2 to 1 in 2000 and 2004. But as those counties
continue to grow and diversify, Democrats say they think that more and more residents are open
to backing Obama this year. Democratic strategists also say the region is loaded with thousands
of Democratic-leaning first-time voters who are registering now.
Political analysts say McCain probably will not be able to carry Virginia if Obama keeps GOP
margins in check in the outer suburbs. Loudoun and Prince William are the two biggest prizes. If
Obama can rack up big margins in Washington's inner suburbs and urban areas downstate,
political analysts say he will need only a tie or narrow victory in Prince William and Loudoun to
105
win the state.
Mccain once didn’t expect to have to campaign in Virginia, but he’s had to spend time and money
in the state – holding rallies in places like Prince William County, part of the fast-growing
Washington, D.C. exurbs. The county sits at the nexus of solid blue suburban D.C. and solid red
rural Virginia. In 2004 Prince William County voted for George W. Bush by seven points, mirroring
the margin for the entire state. But the County supported Democrat Tim Kaine for governor in
2005 and Democrat Jim Webb for senator in 2006. Democrats feel that, for the first time in
decades, their presidential candidate has a chance in this pivotal part of the state.
Part of the shift toward the Democrats is demographic: Prince William County has grown by more
than 50,000 people since 2004, many of them from the heavily Democratic counties to the north.
Housing and the economy are big issues as well. Foreclosures have increased by more than 300
percent over the past year and the medium home price dropped 40 percent since Sept. 2007.106
The changes in Prince William County reflect a major shift in many of the burgeoning suburbs of
northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, the state's two most populous regions. Prince William,
once a rural outpost of older, ex-military whites, is rapidly becoming an affluent Washington
suburb of young families, Hispanics and Asians who are more open to Democratic policies.107
Virginia voters are uneasy about the economy, they disapprove of the job President Bush is
doing, and a growing number of voters have strongly negative perceptions of GOP vice
presidential nominee Sarah Palin.108
The state has seen a historic number of new voter registrations. Changing demographics and
new voters have been instrumental in helping Democrats win three statewide races in recent
years -- Gov. Mark Warner, Gov. Tim Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb.
The McCain campaign has also made several gaffes: McCain's brother called Alexandria and
Arlington "communist country"; a McCain aide said Northern Virginia wasn't the "real Virginia";
and Virginia GOP Chairman Jeff Frederick's compared Obama to Osama bin Laden.109
60
VIRGINIA – U.S. Senate Race
Former Gov. Mark R. Warner (D)
Born: December 15, 1954; Indianapolis, IN
Home: Alexandria, VA
Education: George Washington University, B.A., 1977; Harvard University Law School, 1980
Marital status: Married (Lisa)
Elected Office: Served as Virginia governor from 2002 to 2006.
Professional Career: Co-founder, Nextel Communications Inc.; managing director, Columbia
Capital Corp., Alexandria
Early in his career, Warner served on the staff of Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut.110
Warner made a fortune estimated at $200 million by investing early in the cell-phone business.
111
While working for congressional Democrats as a fundraiser in the 1980s, Warner seized on a tip
that the federal government would be giving away the rights to radio frequencies that would be
used for futuristic wireless phones.
Warner managed the successful 1989 Virginia campaign that made L. Douglas Wilder the
nation's first elected black governor.
Warner sought the Senate seat once before; in 1996, Warner spent $10 million of his own fortune
in an unsuccessful challenge to Republican Sen. John W. Warner's bid for a fourth term.112
He also served a stint as chairman of the state Democratic Party.113
In 2001, Warner became the first Democrat elected governor of Virginia since 1989.114
He became the first statewide Democratic candidate in a generation to win a majority of the vote
in rural Virginia.115 His success followed an aggressive years-long campaign to reach out to those
voters, in which he went as far as sponsoring a NASCAR vehicle.116
In winning Virginia's governorship in 2001 as a moderate who focused on appealing to rural
voters, Warner laid the groundwork for the Democratic resurgence that has put the state's 13
electoral votes firmly in play in this year's presidential contest.117
He also oversaw the state's efforts to catch the Washington area sniper in 2002 and its response
to Hurricane Isabel in 2003.118
Warner was elected governor after pledging in debates and TV commercials that he would not
raise taxes; in 2004 he ushered a record $1.4 billion tax increase through the General
Assembly.119
Warner, who flirted with running for president, gave the keynote address at the 2008 Democratic
National Convention.120
Warner left office in 2006 with approval ratings of roughly 70 percent.121
61
Former Gov. James S. Gilmore III (R)
Born: Oct. 6, 1949, Richmond, VA
Home: Richmond, VA
Education: B.S., University of Virginia 1971; J.D. University of Virginia 1977
Religion: Methodist
Marital status: Married (Roxane)
Elected Office: Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia, 1998-2002; attorney general,
Commonwealth of Virginia, 1993-97
Professional Career: partner, Kelley Drye & Warren LLP, (Washington) 2002-2007; partner,
LeClair Ryan (Richmond, Va.) 1997; attorney general Commonwealth of Virginia, 1993-97;
commonwealth's attorney Henrico County, Va., 1987-1993; partner and attorney, Benedetti,
Gilmore, Warthen & Dalton (Henrico County, Va.) 1984-87; attorney, Harris, Tuck, Freasier &
Johnson (Henrico County, Va.), 1977-1980
Gilmore was Virginia governor from 1998 to 2002.
122
James Stuart Gilmore III was born in Richmond, Va., on Oct. 6, 1949, the son of a supermarket
meat cutter and a church secretary. Raised in a middle class Richmond suburb, he earned a
bachelor's degree and law degree from the University of Virginia.
Gilmore served in the Army from 1971 to 1974, including time as an intelligence analyst in West
Germany. He graduated from law school in 1977 and became an attorney in private practice.
Gilmore won election for the first time in 1987 when he was elected Henrico's commonwealth's
attorney.
In 1993, Gilmore was little known when he made his first race for statewide office, a bid for
attorney general. He took his law-and-order record and a conservative world view on taxation into
the race. He won 56 percent of the vote over Democrat William Dolan.
In 1997, Gilmore seized on the deep unpopularity of the property tax cities and counties levy on
personal cars and pickup trucks and ran on a promise of abolishing it. He won an overwhelming
victory in 1997, winning 56 percent of the vote over Democrat Donald Beyer, and the next year
pushed the car-tax rollback through a reluctant General Assembly where Democrats still ruled the
House of Delegates.123
He left many Virginians unhappy when the tax wasn't fully erased and the budget deficit under his
tenure swelled to $6 billion.124
Gilmore in 1999 was among the first governors to support fellow Gov. George W. Bush of Texas
for president. After Bush's election, Gilmore was appointed chairman of the Republican National
Committee.
After the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Gilmore emerged as a major figure in homeland security
issues. Since 1999, he had headed a congressionally appointed panel studying the nation's
readiness for a terrorist strike on its own soil.125
He served as head of the Republican National Committee from 2001-2002.126 He was forced out
by the White House after clashing with Karl Rove.127
He left office in 2002 and went to work for a Washington, D.C., law firm. In late 2006, he
announced that he was exploring a 2008 presidential bid. He dropped out of the race in June. He
announced his intent to run for the U.S. Senate in the fall.128
He and his wife, Roxane have two sons.129
62
Race Notes:
Warner is widely expected to win this race. Virginia is another example of a Republican
130
retirement putting an otherwise safe seat in jeopardy.
Warner and Gilmore are competing to succeed Sen. John W. Warner in the Senate.
132
Republican senator, no relation to Mark Warner, is retiring after 30 years.
131
The
Gilmore was governor from 1998 to 2002. He could not seek re-election because Virginia is the
only state that does not allow its chief executive to serve successive terms. Warner succeeded
him, serving from 2002 to 2006.133
Democrats fielded their strongest possible candidate in Mark Warner, a popular former governor,
while Gilmore, Warner ’ s less well-regarded predecessor and a quixotic seeker of the 2008
Republican presidential nomination, struggled to secure the GOP Senate nomination and is
134
overmatched in campaign organization, fundraising and the polls.
This race is the first Virginia race for U.S. Senate without an incumbent candidate since 1988.
135
Only once since the 1960s -- Charles S. Robb in 1988 -- has a Virginia Democrat won a Senate
race during a presidential election year.136
Both Gilmore and Warner say their race for the Senate is about the future. But they have fought
heatedly during this year's campaign over their governorships, saying their contrasting records
provide the best insights into their core fiscal beliefs, leadership style and candor.137
The candidates have reiterated long-standing differences on Iraq, with Warner favoring a more
rapid withdrawal of forces than Gilmore.138
Gilmore has cast himself as a friend of "working men and women" and called Warner a liberal
elitist who wants to raise taxes and weaken national security.139
Gilmore, an Army veteran who chaired a federal national security commission, also noted that
Warner has never served in the military.140
If Warner wins, Virginia would have two Democratic senators for the first time since 1970.141
While Virginia hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since 1964, some signs of a turnaround
have been emerging in recent years.142
Southern Virginia has remained reliably Republican, but the state's more densely populated
Washington suburbs in the north have been shifting toward the Democrats.143
Analysis:
Virginia has undeniably become more Democratic in recent years, primarily because of the
growth of moderate Northern Virginia.
The GOP has lost races for Governor in 2001 and 2005, U.S. Senator in 2006, and the state
Senate in 2007.
The man who started the movement to the Democrats, former governor Mark Warner, is headed
to the Senate in 2008.
Gilmore's already severe problems were compounded by what happened at the convention. He
barely squeaked by a gadfly state legislator, Del. Bob Marshall with a mere 50.3% of the votes
cast.
63
The Virginia GOP has moved farther right at a time when the state as a whole has dramatically
moderated, making the Republican party's brand unpalatable to key swing centrists and
independents who fund the candidates. All this is great news for the Democrats.
Mark Warner will succeed the retiring John Warner (R) in a landslide for the Democrats.
144
Virginia's years as a Republican stronghold are well over.
Analysis by
Virginia
Race Rating
Likely D
Certain Democratic Pick-up
Safe Democrat
Likely Takeover
Recent Poll Results
Dates
Not
N/Po Gilmor Warne Redpat Parke Othe Undecide
Margi
Votin
p
e
r
h
r
r
d
n
g
MasonDixon
10/2021/08
625
LV
33
58
-
-
-
9
-
+25D
SurveyUSA
10/1819/08
652
LV
36
60
1
1
-
2
-
+24D
Rasmussen
10/16/0
8
700
LV
36
61
-
-
1
1
-
+25R
SurveyUSA
10/45/08
666
LV
31
61
3
3
-
3
-
+30D
MasonDixon
9/2910/1/08
625
LV
31
57
-
-
-
12
-
+26D
Rasmussen
9/25/08
700
LV
34
60
-
-
2
3
-
+26D
NBC/Mason
-Dixon
9/1722/08
625
LV
28
61
-
-
-
11
-
+33D
SurveyUSA
9/1921/08
716
LV
34
57
3
3
-
3
-
+23D
ABC/Post
9/1821/08
698
LV
31
61
1
1
-
6
1
+30D
SurveyUSA
9/1214/08
732
LV
34
57
1
4
-
3
-
+23D
Pollster
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
John Warner (R)
1,229,893
83%
$1,709,202
Nancy Spannaus (I)
145,102
10%
$61,984
Jacob
Hornberger(I)
106,055
7%
$66,480
$5,819,157
2002 primary John Warner (R)
1996 general
Total Votes
Unopposed
John Warner (R)
1,235,744
52%
Mark Warner (D)
1,115,982
47% $11,600,424
64
65
Virginia 2nd District
Thelma Drake (R) Incumbent
Born: 11-20-1949, Elyria, OH
Home: Norfolk
Education: Elyria H.S.
Religion: United Church of Christ
Marital Status: married (Ted)
Elected Office: VA House of Del., 1995-2004.
Professional Career: Real estate agent, 1975-2004.
Thelma Drake was born in Elyria, Ohio, and lives in Norfolk.
She is a real estate agent who served in the Virginia House of Delegates from 1996 to 2004.
Republicans selected her to replace incumbent U.S. Rep. Ed Schrock on the November 2004
ballot. Republicans nominated Drake to replace Schrock a day after Schrock dropped out of his
race for re-election amid claims that he is gay.
Drake was elected to the U.S. House in 2004. She defeated Democrat David Ashe with 55
percent of the vote.
Drake, whose district takes in the world's largest U.S. Navy base in Norfolk, Va., has made
national security and the military a top interest in Congress.
She is married with two children.145
Glenn Nye (D)
Born: September 9, 1974; Philadelphia, PA
Residence: Norfolk, Va.
Marital Status: Single
Occupation(s): Foreign service officer
Education: Georgetown University
Glenn Nye was born in Philadelphia but moved to Norfolk, Va., as a child. He graduated from
Norfolk Academy and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University in Washington,
D.C., before beginning a career as a foreign service officer.
As a foreign service officer, Glenn Nye has served in conflict zones in Afghanistan, Kosovo and
Iraq, where he led operations to create jobs for Iraqis as part of the counter-insurgency effort. He
returned home from Iraq last fall.
Nye also worked in the U.S. Embassy in Singapore and managed a U.S. Agency for International
Development community development program in the West Bank and Gaza.
He says the U.S. should significantly reduce its military presence in Iraq and focus on returning
responsibility for policing to Iraqi forces.
This is his first run for public office.
Nye is single.146
Race Notes:
Drake hasn’t been able to put away this district in two terms, and she faces a determined
Democratic challenger this year in Glenn Nye, a young political newcomer whose service for the
66
State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development took him to global trouble
spots such as Iraq.
Drake has been touting her work on energy issues and questions Nye’s ties to the district.
Nye is emphasizing a consensus-minded approach to solving problems.
Democratic leaders have promised Nye a seat on Armed Services, which is practically a
necessity for a representative in such a military-heavy district around Virginia Beach and
Norfolk.147
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Thelma Drake (R)
88,777
51%
$2,348,983
Phil Kellam (D)
83,901
48%
$1,703,424
2006 primary
Thelma Drake (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Thelma Drake (R)
132,946
55%
$828,185
David Ashe (D)
108,180
45%
$436,620
Virginia 11th District
Gerald Connolly (D)
Born: 1950-10-20, Boston, MA
Home: Mantua
Education: B.A. Maryknoll College; M.A Public Admin., Harvard
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Cathy)
Elected Office: Chairman, Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, 2003-present, member, Fairfax
County Board of Supervisors, 1995-2003
Professional Career: SRI International
Gerald Connolly was born in Boston and currently lives in Mantua, Va. He received a degree in
literature from Maryknoll College in Glen Ellyn, Ill., and a master's in public administration from
Harvard in 1979.
He worked for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for 10 years before becoming vice
president of the Washington office of SRI International. He is community relations director for
SAIC, a technology company.
Gerald Connolly has been a member of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors since 1995 and
has been president of the board since 2003. As president of the Fairfax County Board of
Supervisors, he supervises a $4.5 billion annual budget.
He also serves on the Northern Virginia Transportation Commission.
Connolly touts his experience as a Senate staffer as a qualification for helping the next
administration end the war in Iraq.148
Connolly is the most well-known of all of Virginia's non-incumbent congressional candidates.149
Connolly and his wife, Cathy, have one daughter.150
67
Keith Fimian (R)
Born: 08/02/1956
Home: Oakton
Education: B.B.A in Accounting from the College of William & Mary
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Cathy)
Elected Office: no prior elected office
Professional Career: Chairman and Founder of U.S. Inspect; accounting firm KPMG
Keith Fimian grew up in a Navy family that moved often before settling in Virginia Beach when he
was 9. He was captain of the football team at the College of William & Mary, where he
earned a bachelor's degree in accounting.
Fimian did start for the Cleveland Browns and got in one game against the New York Giants. But
151
a torn ligament kept him from continuing his football career.
Fimian is a former certified public accountant. He worked for seven years with international
152
accounting firm KPMG.
Fimian is founder and chairman of a property inspection business.
Fimian is president of the Washington-based Youth Leadership Foundation, an academic and
character development program for disadvantaged youth.153
This is Keith Fimian's first run for public office.154
He and his wife, Cathy, have three daughters.155
Race Notes:
Davis’ retirement after seven terms and a Democratic surge in the Washington suburbs have
created a big opening for Democrat Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the board of supervisors in
Fairfax County, where two-thirds of district voters live.
Republican Keith Fimian, the founder of a home-inspection company, is a well-funded political
newcomer who has had trouble fending off Democratic attacks that he’s too socially conservative
for the district.156
Both parties knew that it was only a matter of time before this district was won by the Democrats.
It's just that Davis' retirement may make that happen sooner than anyone thought.
Democrats have rallied behind Connolly. He is favored over Fimian.157
Connolly, is the most well-known of all of Virginia's non-incumbent congressional candidates.
Fimian aims to turn that in his favor by portraying Connolly as the powerful, entrenched insider.158
The 11th Congressional District of Virginia consists of much of Fairfax County and most of Prince
William County.159
Davis’ retirement, coupled with a Democratic trend in northern Virginia, gives the Democrats a big
opportunity to wrest away a Republican-held “open” seat. CQ Rates the 11th District as “Leans
Democratic.”160
A congressional seat has not switched parties in Virginia since 2001.161
68
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Tom Davis (R)
130,468
55%
$3,301,041
Andrew Hurst (D)
102,511
44%
$360,563
2,301
1%
Other
2006 primary
Tom Davis (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Tom Davis (R)
186,299
60%
$1,835,379
Ken Longmyer (D)
118,305
38%
$71,661
4,629
1%
Other
69
70
North Carolina
Electoral Votes:
15
Battleground state
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
6:30 AM ET
Polls Close:
7:30 PM ET
All polls close at 7:30PM ET. If a precinct experiences delays due to voting equipment, the local
authorities may extend poll closing time to 8:30PM.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
1,961,166
56.02
Kerry
1,525,849
43.58
Other
13,992
0.4
435,317
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
56.02%
43.58%
2000
56.03%
43.20%
1996
48.73%
44.04%
1992
43.44%
42.65%
1988
57.97%
41.71%
1984
61.90%
37.89%
1980
49.30%
47.18%
Democrats
Primary Date:
May 6
Obama
56.1%
Clinton
41.6%
Republicans
Primary Date:
McCain
Huckabee
Paul
May 6
74.0%
12.2%
7.2%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Mike Easley (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
7
6
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
31
19
0
State House
68
52
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
2,719,346
Republican
1,953,102
Other
1,374
1,321,692
Total
5,995,514
As Of
9/27/2008
VEP 2008
6,686,934
VEP Turnout 2004
59.26%
9,061,032
Total population
State Pop. Rank
1,103,413
12.2%
65 years and over
6,120,712
67.5%
Non-Hispanic White
1,967,156
21.7%
Black
171,004
1.9%
Asian
638,444
7.0%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Charlotte
671,588
Raleigh
375,806
Greensboro
247,183
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
7.0%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$44,670
U.S.
$50,740
71
North Carolina – Battleground State
North Carolina, with its 15 electoral votes, now finds itself alongside such traditional battlegrounds
162
as Ohio and Florida.
Obama began to show a small lead in North Carolina polls in September and held that very small
lead through most of October. However, the latest polls show the race very nearly tied, and some
polls show a very slight lead for McCain.
Obama is looking to become the first Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in
more than three decades. North Carolina hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1976.
Biden was in Greenville and Greensboro on Oct. 27. Obama plans his own stop in North Carolina
on Oct. 29, as does his wife. Not to be outdone, McCain will be in Fayetteville on Oct. 29.163
The Obama campaign has invested heavily in the state, and the candidate has repeatedly visited
North Carolina. The campaign has aggressively registered new African American and young
voters, both groups that traditionally vote Democratic.
Thad Beyle, a professor of political science at the University of North Carolina, said if the Obama
campaign can actually get these new voters to come to the ballot box, he could win the state.
"The critical factor is getting a larger percentage of the registered black vote out," said Beyle.164
The state has long been a bastion of cultural conservatism; it was in Greensboro that Palin said
she loved visiting the “pro-America” parts of the country. But this is a new landscape, even from
four years ago, when President Bush defeated Senator John Kerry (and his running mate, John
Edwards, of North Carolina) by 12 percentage points in the state.
The turnabout can be traced to an influx of new voters and a change in demographics; a slowing
of the state’s economy and the collapse of the nation’s financial system; Obama’s extensive
ground organization, huge financial advantage and amount spent on television (seven to one over
McCain); the state’s large population of blacks and students; and McCain’s neglect of the state.
The state is one of the fastest-growing in the country, becoming home to more immigrants as well
as transplants from other states who tend to be more moderate than the natives. This means both
a less conservative electorate and a labor force that is growing faster than the supply of jobs.
“Somewhere, former conservative icon Senator Jesse Helms must be turning over in his grave at
the prospect of Obama winning North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes,” James Bennett, the
managing editor of the local newspaper, The Independent Tribune, wrote after McCain’s visit.
“The Republican stronghold that elected Helms to five terms in the Senate no longer exists.”165
The changes in North Carolina can be seen in the demographics, diversifying the state's culture
and stirring up its politics. Blacks, who had been leaving the South, are returning in big numbers
and finding comfort in the metropolitan areas. Affluent, well-educated whites have flocked to the
Research Triangle Park of Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill. And good job opportunities have
made North Carolina a new destination for Latino and Asian immigrants. Ten percent of residents
5 years and older now speak a language other than English at home, according to Ferrel Guillory,
director of the Program on Public Life at the University of North Carolina.166
North Carolina has long had one of the strongest Democratic parties in the South, and a history of
electing Democrats to state office – even when it gave Republicans its electoral votes. Its
emphasis on higher education has made it attractive in the past 20 years for new workers coming
to Charlotte or the Research Triangle.
Newcomers to Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham are less conservative than newcomers to other
southern states. "A lot of people are coming to North Carolina for commercial reasons," Scott
72
Huffmon, a Winthrop political science professor who conducts polls in the state. "But not many
people move from New York to South Carolina unless they are going to retire."
Political scientists have long predicted that Virginia and North Carolina would become competitive
167
for Democrats and turn "purple."
The state is one of the fastest-growing in America, set to be No. 7 in population by 2030,
according to Census projections. Once reliant on tobacco, textiles and furniture, the economy
fueling growth today is built on high-tech research, pharmaceuticals and a banking industry now
reeling.168
Parts of the state, especially around the affluent Research Triangle Park area, have show strong
economic growth. But others are still suffering from a decline in textiles and furniture making. The
169
state’s unemployment rate hit 7 percent in September, its highest level in six years.
North Carolina is a state that has been among the hardest hit by a loss of manufacturing jobs
overseas. According to figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics, jobs in the North
Carolina textile industry have plunged from around 173,100 to 58,600 between August 2000 and
August 2008.170
Even the state’s banking industry is on edge. Charlotte is the No. 2 banking center in the
nation.171 The recent merger of Wachovia, based in Charlotte, with Wells Fargo has created great
uncertainty, with possible layoffs in the offing.
As the economy has slowed, the Obama campaign has also stuck to its game plan, building a
corps of 17,000 volunteers, registering voters and now focusing on getting them out to vote.172
The Obama campaign has opened 45 offices in the state, compared with McCain's 35.173
In swing states such as North Carolina, active and retired military voters could be the determining
factor, according to the campaign.174 McCain has obvious advantages among servicemen and
women, but Obama is hoping that an endorsement from former Gen. Colin Powell might help him.
The state registered 600,000 new voters this year, 48 percent of them Democrats, 21 percent
Republicans, the rest unaffiliated.175
More than 1 million people have already cast a ballot in North Carolina's early voting, surpassing
the total number who voted early four years ago. Data released Oct. 26 by the State Board of
Elections shows 1,078,710 have voted at early sites. In 2004, the state counted some 984,000
ballots during the full early voting period.
Early voting started Oct. 16, and counties have been increasing the number of sites since then,
easing some of the hours-long lines seen in the opening days. The early balloting runs through
Nov. 1.
The numbers clearly favor Democrats. Of the early voters, 58 percent are registered Democrats,
although the GOP argues that it can win over some of the conservative Democrats in the state
who differ in ideology from their national counterparts. Just 25 percent of those voting so far are
registered Republicans.
Obama has encouraged his supporters to vote early to ensure that as many ballots as possible
are in before the crush of Election Day.
Elections officials expect that one-third of voters in North Carolina will go to the polls early.
Already, more than 19 percent of registered voters have cast their ballots.
73
The data also shows signs that Obama is drawing a historic number of black voters to the
election. About 28 percent of all voters thus far are black, though they are just 21 percent of the
state's population and made up only 19 percent of state's overall 2004 vote.
Another 113,000 voters have cast an absentee ballot, including 4,700 in the military and 2,179
176
people overseas.
Veteran Republican politician Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., is locked in a much closer re-election
177
race than she may have expected.
North Carolina – Governor Race
Mayor Patrick L. McCrory (R)
Born: 10-17-1956, Columbus, Ohio
Home: Charlotte
Religion: none
Education: B.A. Catawba College, 1978
Marital Status: married (Ann)
Professional Career: Duke Energy Corp., 1978-2008
Elected office: Councilmember, City of Charlotte, 1989-1995; Mayor Pro Tem, City of Charlotte,
1993-1995; Mayor, City of Charlotte, 1995-present178
Patrick L. "Pat" McCrory was born in Columbus, Ohio but was raised in Jamestown, N.C.179
At age 39, McCrory was the youngest mayor elected in Charlotte history.
His seventh victory in the 2007 election was a Charlotte record.180
In his 7 wins, he never won less than 56 percent of the vote, and he once took 78 percent.
As Mayor of Charlotte, McCrory championed big projects such as light rail, an uptown arena and
the NASCAR Hall of Fame.181
McCrory worked for Duke Energy Corp. for 29 years before announcing he was leaving the
company because of his gubernatorial run.182
Lt. Gov. Beverly Eaves Perdue (D)
Born: 1-14-1947, Grundy, VA
Occupation: Lieutenant Governor
Home: New Bern, N.C
Education: University of Kentucky, BA; University of Florida, M. Ed; University of Florida, PhD
Marital Status: married (Bob Eaves)
Elected office: State House of Representatives, 1986-1990; State Senate 1990-1998; Lt. Gov.
2000-present
Professional Career: school teacher in Kentucky, Florida and Georgia in the mid-1970s. She
worked as a human services director, geriatric director at a local hospital and geriatric health care
consultant.
Beverly Perdue was born in Grundy, Va., the daughter of a coal mine owner.
She was a school teacher in Kentucky, Florida and Georgia before settling in New Bern, N.C. in
the mid-1970s.
Perdue was first elected to the state House in 1986. She moved to the Senate in 1990, where she
became a co-chairwoman of the powerful Appropriations Committee in 1995. She was elected
lieutenant governor in 2000 and re-elected in 2004.
74
As lieutenant governor, Perdue has served as chairwoman of N.C. Health and Wellness Trust
Fund Commission, which is funded by a share of the state's national tobacco settlement
183
money.
Race Notes:
184
The race to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Easley (D) is considered a toss-up.
The departure of Democratic Gov. Easley seemed to open the door for his lieutenant governor,
Bev Perdue, to step into the governor's mansion.
But Republicans smartly nominated Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a business-minded, pragmatic
185
politician who has successfully painted Perdue as a defender of the status quo.
The Democratic Party has only occupied the North Carolina governor's office for 12 of the past
100 years.
As mayor of Charlotte, the state's largest city and financial capital, McCrory fits the mold of the
business-oriented Republicans who ran successful gubernatorial campaigns here in the 1970s
and '80s.
McCrory has been popular with Democrats during 13 years as mayor, largely overlooking the hotbutton issues of social conservatives, such as abortion and gay marriage, even as he took a hard
line on immigration.
As lieutenant governor, 61-year-old Perdue carved out her own place by running a trust fund that
reduced teenage smoking and leading efforts to protect the state's military installations during the
latest round of base closings.
During the campaign, Perdue has distanced herself from Easley. Although the incumbent was
popular for most of his two terms, he has been criticized recently for his handing of health care
reform, and for expensive overseas travel billed as economic development.
The Republican Governors Association has labeled Perdue "Status Quo Bev" as part of a $3
million campaign blaming her for the state's economic troubles.
Perdue also faced bad publicity after two Board of Transportation members who raised money for
her campaign resigned from the panel — one over conflict-of-interest allegations and the other for
seeking political donations from developers who got funding from the board.
The race may come down to which candidate can peel off the most votes from the other's home
base — the Charlotte metro area for McCrory and eastern North Carolina for Perdue.
Perdue may also benefit from heavy turnout for Obama particularly among black voters. That's an
unusual twist in North Carolina, where Democrats have traditionally distanced themselves from
national tickets viewed as too liberal.186
Election Results
Candidate
2004 general
Michael Easley (D)
1,939,154
56%
Patrick Ballantine
(R)
1,495,021
43%
52,513
2%
Michael Easley (D)
1,530,324
52%
Richard Vinroot (R)
1,360,960
46%
Other
2000 general
Total Votes
75
Other
50,778
2%
76
NORTH CAROLINA – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) Incumbent
Born: July 29, 1936; Salisbury, NC
Home: Salisbury
Education: Duke U., B.A. 1958 (political science) ; Harvard U., M.A. 1960 (education &
government) ; Harvard U., J.D. 1965
Marital status: Married to former Sen. Robert Dole
Elected Office: Federal Trade Commission, 1973-79; Transportation secretary, 1983-87; Labor
secretary, 1989-90; sought Republican nomination for president, 2000; U.S. Senate, 2003present
Professional Career: Lawyer; American Red Cross president; White House aide
Elizabeth Dole was born into a relative wealthy family in Salisbury, N.C. She attended Duke
University, serving as student body president and graduating with honors in 1958. In 1962, she
was one of 24 women to enter Harvard Law School.
Dole began a long career in Washington in 1965, taking a job in the Department of Health,
Education and Welfare during the Lyndon Johnson administration. She later worked in the Office
of Consumer Affairs.
Dole changed her party affiliation from Democrat to independent after Richard Nixon's election in
1968 and continued to work in consumer affairs in his administration, the first of three Republican
administrations in which she served.
Dole married Kansas Sen. Bob Dole in 1975.
She served as Secretary of Transportation under President Reagan and Secretary of Labor under
the first President Bush.
Dole became president of the American Red Cross in 1991, making humanitarian trips to
Somalia, Mozambique, Croatia and to Rwandan refugee camps.
Already one of the world's most recognized women, Dole's celebrity rose even more during her
husband's bid for president in 1996.
Elizabeth Dole made a brief run for the GOP presidential nomination in 2000 – she dropped out
before the primaries began.
In 2001, she moved back to North Carolina to run for the Senate seat being vacated by
Republican Jesse Helms.
In 2002, she defeated Erskine Bowles and became North Carolina's first female U.S. senator.
She and her husband have no children.187
77
State Sen. Kay Hagan (D)
Born: May 26, 1953; Shelby, NC
Home: Greensboro, NC
Education: B.A., American Studies, Florida State University, 1975; J.D., Wake Forest University
School of Law, 1978
Marital status: Married (Chip Hagan)
Elected Office: N.C. Senate, 1999 to present
Professional Career: Attorney; worked as attorney for NationsBank (now Bank of America), 197888.
Kay Hagan was born in Shelby, N.C. and currently lives in Greensboro, N.C.
She received her undergraduate degree from Florida State University in 1975 and her law degree
from Wake Forest University in 1978.
Hagan has served in state government since 1998. Before that, Hagan worked for NationsBank,
now Bank of America, and then became a stay-at-home mother.
Hagan previously worked for Hunt on his 1992 and 1996 gubernatorial campaigns
Kay Hagan has held a seat in the state Senate since 1998 and has served as one of the
chamber's chief budget-writers since 2003.188
Hagan beat Chapel Hill entrepreneur Jim Neal during the North Carolina primary races on May 6,
2008.
This is Hagan's first run for Congress. She announced her candidacy on Oct. 30, 2007, three
weeks after saying she wouldn't challenge Sen. Dole.189
Hagan and her husband, Chip, have three children.190
Race Notes:
Dole faces a tough challenge to win a second term against well-known state Sen. Hagan, who
has held her own in fundraising.191 The Democratic Party is rallying behind Hagan to make this
seat a pick-up opportunity.192
Dole has committed $3 million of her own money to her re-election bid in the closing weeks of the
campaign. Dole transferred the money in the first week of October. She had said shortly after the
decision was made that she felt the need to "put some skin in the game."193
Dole has reported raising $13.8 million, while Hagan has raised $5.3 million.194 Hagan recently
put $350,000 in personal funds into the contest. Dole’s spokesman said the millions of dollars that
outside groups have spent in North Carolina targeting the first-term lawmaker have put Dole in a
bind.195
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has spent more than $6.6 million in North
Carolina, mostly to fund anti-Dole television ads.196
The NRSC has spent $2.8 million against Hagan, according to the FEC. Freedom's Watch and
the National Rifle Association are among others spending against Hagan.
Hagan's allies include the League of Conservation Voters and Citizens for Strength and Security,
a group funded mainly by labor unions. The two groups have spent more than $1 million against
Dole.
78
At least 11 groups, including the DSCC and NRSC, have bought TV ads in the Senate race.
They've accounted for about $10 million worth of ads, he said, while the candidates themselves
197
have accounted for another $7 million.
This race marks the first time two women have faced off for the same U.S. Senate seat in North
198
Carolina.
Polls show a tight race in what to some extent has become a referendum on Dole and
199
Congress.
Democrats have sought to portray Dole as a carpetbagger who has not lived in the state since the
200
1950s. One of Hagan's favorite lines is that voters should give Dole a pair of ruby red slippers - like Dorothy in "The Wizard of Oz" -- so she can click her heels and return home to Kansas.
Dole is touting her insiders' clout in helping negotiate the federal tobacco buyout, protecting North
Carolina's military bases from closure and saving money for hospitals.201
The Hagan campaign has taken a hard tack against Dole for what Democrats charge has been
her absenteeism and ties to the Bush administration.202
Hagan has portrayed Dole as a foe of regulation whose inaction contributed to the mess on Wall
Street. Republicans have tried to portray Hagan as an irresponsible spender who doubled the
state's debt while serving in the state Senate.
Both Dole and Hagan reluctantly opposed the $700 billion financial bailout package, citing their
commitment to free markets and taxpayers. But both later voiced support for a government plan
to buy stakes in the nation's banks, saying it was a necessary step and a good deal for
taxpayers.203
The state has seen substantial changes demographically since Dole was first elected in 2000,
and those new voters could boost Hagan. With Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) at the top of the ticket,
there is likely to be a huge black turnout, and that will help Hagan as well.204
Analysis:
Most observers are amazed that Senator Elizabeth Dole is in trouble at the hands of Democrat
Kay Hagan, a state senator. We still have a hard time believing she will lose, but this outcome is
now very much in the realm of possibility.
We have asked many Tarheel politicos to assess the reasons behind Dole's troubles. Both
Democrats and Republicans cite the same explanation: Hagan is an attractive, energetic
campaigner, but this may be a referendum on Dole.
Dole is perceived (fairly or unfairly) as being Washington-based, as having 'lost touch' with the
state she represents. Perhaps this is a canard invented by Democrats--but it has stuck in some
quarters. Recently released figures suggesting Dole spent a mere thirty-three days in North
Carolina for all of 2005 and 2006 (two years combined) only underline the Democrats' charge.
In the end, perhaps Dole will be assisted by John McCain's somewhat probable victory in North
Carolina, though McCain will claim the state's 15 electoral votes by far less than the usual GOP
margin.
Another factor here is the gubernatorial match-up, in which the once heavily favored Democrat
Beverley Perdue, the current lieutenant governor, is on the verge of losing to Charlotte Mayor Pat
McCrory. It will be a shocker if she does, but Democrats have controlled the statehouse for 16
years consecutively, and it may take time for a--dare we use the word--change.
79
If McCain and McCrory both win, Dole ought to be assisted, though maybe contrarian Tarheel
205
voters will decide to oust the incumbent party from both top posts.
Analysis by
Pollster
North Carolina
Race Rating
Toss Up
New Leans Democratic
No Clear Favorite
Lean Takeover
Recent Poll Results
N/Pop Dole Hagan Cole Other
Dates
Undecided
Margin
WSOC-TV
10/20-21/08
500 LV
43
44
-
4
9
+1D
SurveyUSA
10/18-20/08
627 LV
45
46
5
-
3
+1D
Rasmussen
10/8/08
700 LV
44
49
-
-
4
+5D
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
Total Votes
Elizabeth Dole (R)
1,248,664
54% $13,735,220
Erskine Bowles (D)
1,047,983
45% $13,306,317
Other
34,534
1%
342,631
80%
Jim Snyder (R)
60,477
14%
Other
22,998
5%
2002 primary Elizabeth Dole (R)
1996 general
Jesse Helms (R)
1,345,833
53% $14,589,266
Harvey B. Gantt (D)
1,173,875
46%
$7,992,980
North Carolina 8th District
Robin Hayes (R) Incumbent
Born: 08/14/1945, Birthplace: Concord, NC
Home: Concord
Education: BA Duke University, 1967
Marital Status: Married (Barbara)
Elected Office: NC House, 1992-96
Professional Career: Textile Mill Owner
Robin Hayes has spent almost his entire life in Concord, N.C., close to the Cannon towel
factories that were built by his family. Cannon Mills was sold a decade ago, but Hayes still
operates Mt. Pleasant Hosiery Mill near Concord.
Hayes is the grandson of Charles Cannon, the man who ran the Cannon Mills textile company for
much of the 20th century, and an heir to the family's wealth.
An active hunter and church member, Hayes served on the state Wildlife Resources Commission,
on several state drug task forces and as chairman of the Prison Fellowship of North Carolina.
80
He was elected to the Concord Board of Aldermen in 1978 and served until he was elected to the
North Carolina House in 1992.
When Republicans took control of the chamber in 1994, Hayes was elected majority whip. He
was the Republican candidate for governor in 1996, losing to incumbent Democrat Jim Hunt.
In 1998, he ran for Congress in the 8th District. The district had been drawn to favor incumbent
Democratic Rep. Bill Hefner, but Hefner surprised party officials with a late announcement that he
would not run. Hayes ended up winning narrowly over Mike Taylor, then beating Taylor by a wider
margin in a 2000 rematch.
He survived a 2006 challenge from relative unknown Larry Kissell, beating him by about 330
votes out of more than 120,000 cast - roughly two-tenths of a percentage point. Kissell, a
Montgomery County schoolteacher, ran against him again in 2008.
Hayes and his wife, Barbara, have two children.206
Larry Kissell (D)
Born: 01/31/1951, Biscoe, NC
Home: Biscoe
Education: BA Wake Forest University, 1973
Religion: Baptist
Marital Status: Married (Tina)
Larry Kissell, 57, was born on Pinehurst and currently lives in Biscoe, N.C. He earned his degree
in Economics from Wake Forest University.
Kissell worked for a textile company for 27 years, but left in 2001 as plants were shutting down
and jobs were being outsourced to other countries.
He then entered the education field, where he now works as a social studies teacher at East
Montgomery High School.
Kissell said his teaching career spurred him to run for office.
He is married to Tina Eberly Kissell and the couple has two children, Jenny and Aspen.207
Race Notes:
Kissell, a social studies teacher, is locked in a tight rematch after coming within 329 votes of
unseating Hayes two years ago — without much help from the national party.
Both candidates entered this year’s contest better prepared, and Hayes maintained a 4-to-1 cash
advantage over Kissell through the start of this month, although the Democratic Congressional
Campaign Committee is investing significantly in the race this time out.
Trade remains the central issue for the sprawling south-central district, with the race largely a
referendum on Hayes’ voting record.208
With Obama on the ballot, a high black turnout could help Kissell, the Democrat who lost to
Hayes in 2006 in one of the closest House races in the country. Another perennial problem for
Hayes is the precarious state of the textile mills.
In June, Kissell sold $1.22 a gallon gasoline - the per-gallon cost of fuel when Republican
incumbent Robin Hayes took office - to motorists to draw attention to Hayes' energy votes. Kissell
209
staged a similar fuel sale during his first campaign against Hayes in 2006.
81
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Robin Hayes (R)
60,926
50%
$2,475,169
Larry Kissell (D)
60,597
50%
$803,841
2006 primary
Robin Hayes (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Robin Hayes (R)
125,070
56%
$1,611,679
Beth Troutman (D)
100,101
44%
$225,675
2002 (54%); 2000 (55%); 1998 (51%)
82
83
Ohio
Electoral Votes:
20
Battleground state
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
6:30 AM ET
Polls Close:
7:30 PM ET
Any polling place located on an island not connected to mainland by highway or bridge may close
earlier than 7:30 PM ET if all registered voters in precinct have voted.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
2,859,768
50.81
Kerry
2,741,167
48.71
Other
26,973
0.48
118,601
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
50.81%
48.71%
2000
49.99%
46.44%
1996
41.02%
47.38%
1992
38.35%
40.18%
1988
55.00%
44.15%
1984
58.90%
40.14%
1980
51.51%
40.91%
Democrats
Primary Date:
March 4
Clinton
53.5%
Obama
44.8%
Edwards
1.7%
Republicans
Primary Date:
March 4
McCain
59.9%
Huckabee
30.6%
Paul
4.7%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Ted Strickland (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
6
11
1
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
12
21
0
State House
46
53
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
8,122,122
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
8,697,512
VEP Turnout 2004
67.55%
11,466,917
Total population
State Pop. Rank
1,545,085
13.5%
65 years and over
9,483,301
82.7%
Non-Hispanic White
1,377,629
12.0%
Black
180,588
1.6%
Asian
283,755
2.5%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Columbus
747,755
Cleveland
438,042
Cincinnati
332,458
Rate
Rate Rank
7th highest in U.S.
State Rate
7.2%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$46,597
U.S.
$50,740
84
Ohio – Battleground State
Polls show a tight race in the state that sealed President Bush's 2004 re-election.
On Oct. 27, Obama gave what his campaign called the "closing argument" of his presidential bid
in Ohio, where he already lost once this year, to fellow Democrat Clinton.
Hillary Clinton won the state's Democratic primary race over Obama. She carried all but five of
Ohio's 88 counties but lost the large urban Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton and Cincinnati areas,
210
home to the state's largest concentrations of black voters.
Obama's struggles to connect with white working-class voters in Ohio helped fuel his defeat in
that state during the primaries. (Joe the Plumber is from Ohio.) Economic concerns are even
worse now with the country in a financial crisis, and perhaps headed for deep recession, with
growing numbers of people out of work.
And as Ohio goes, often goes history. No Republican has lost Ohio and still gone on to the White
211
House. No Democratic contender for the presidency has won without Ohio's support in nearly
212
50 years -- since John F. Kennedy in 1960. Only two Democrats -- Franklin Roosevelt and
John Kennedy -- have lost Ohio and been elected president. Some blame Al Gore's 2000 loss on
his decision to pull out of the state with just weeks remaining. Ohio gave President Bush a
second term in 2004, by 118,000 votes out of 5.6 million.213
Unlike in other key states, Obama has struggled to sustain a big lead in Ohio despite pounding
McCain with TV ads and building a strong get-out-the-vote operation.
Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes, never really recovered from the post-Sept. 11 recession. Long
a manufacturing bastion, Ohio has lost almost 250,000 factory jobs since 2000. The
unemployment rate is at 7.2 percent, well above the national average of 6.1 percent.214
The state's blend of multiple left-leaning cities, prosperous GOP suburbs, right-leaning farm
country and up-for-grabs Appalachian counties have long made it a reliable barometer for the
presidency.
Ohio is open to change no matter who's delivering it. The state never recovered from the post9/11 recession. Long a manufacturing bastion, Ohio has lost almost 250,000 factory jobs since
2000.
The unemployment rate is at 7.2 percent, well above the national average of 6.1 percent. Ohio
faces a budget deficit of $540 million during the final year of the state's two-year, $52 billion
budget.
The population has been static for years, and Census figures predict Ohio will start getting
smaller in another dozen years or so. "The incredible shrinking state," one newspaper dubbed it.
Such lousy headlines have made the economy a top issue for voters.
Obama is trying to crack a reliably Republican wall in Fairfield County. He has two field offices
there in keeping with the campaign's widespread grass-roots efforts. Democratic voter
registration has jumped by more than 500 percent from 2004, to 27,498.
Fairfield Democrats say the increase in their voter registration ranks bodes well for Nov. 4.
Republicans dismiss the registration numbers as a phenomenon of elevated interest in the
primary election fight between Obama and Clinton.
Four years ago, Fairfield County was ground zero of the values voter movement that saw
conservative pastors mobilize voters to support Ohio's gay marriage ban. That turnout was
credited with helping put Bush over the top.
85
Ohio has 8.3 million voters registered for Nov. 4, a record. The latest figures show 2.3 million
registered Democrats (28 percent) and 1.5 million registered Republicans (17 percent). The
majority, 4.5 million or 55 percent, are unaffiliated voters, meaning they did not cast a ballot in the
most recent primary.
Ohio has the most number of auto parts suppliers in the country and is the nation's seventhbiggest corn grower and second-biggest egg producer.
McCain has sought to woo voters in the Youngstown area, home to a still thriving GM plant and
an area that's a tough sell for Republicans.
Youngstown sits at the heart of a region known as the Rust Belt where most of the factories that
provided millions of families with a middle class life have moved away or simply shut down.
Those union jobs once provided Democrats with a solid base of support, until Republicans started
to woo "values voters" away with a conservative stance on social issues like abortion and gay
marriage.
But as the economy heads into yet another steep decline, with tens of thousands of families in the
region losing their homes to foreclosure and even more layoffs on the horizon amid a widening
credit crisis, some of those voters are coming back.215
Obama should beat McCain handily in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland, and also
holds a lead in the northeast portion of the state, an area including the hard-hit industrial cities of
Akron, Canton and Youngstown.216
McCain's edge in the southwestern part of the state, including Cincinnati and Dayton, should be
big – Bush had a very big edge in the southwest in 2004.
Many polls have shown McCain lagging behind Bush’s 2004 performance in Central Ohio. Four
years ago, Bush won central Ohio and the northwest part of the state around Toledo by eight
percentage points. Obama has been leading in this region in many polls, but the race for Central
Ohio looks close.217
Not to be outdone in trips to the lion's den, the Obama campaign has volunteers going door to
door in farm country, mindful of Bush's success there in 2004.
Both candidates have campaigned in Appalachia, a swing region that voted for President Clinton
and Bush.218
McCain is hoping to do well in southeastern Ohio, an economically depressed piece of
Appalachia. It was a core of President Bush's 2004 re-election bid in this swing state. Two years
later, Democrat Ted Strickland won the governorship by a strong showing in this region, and both
campaigns have made aggressive pushes here to connect with its working-class voters.
Coal mines remain closed through this strip that Obama lost during his primary contest against
Clinton. McCain's campaign has worked to tap into former Clinton supporters and play up Biden's
gaffe, where he said he opposed coal energy.219
In the congressional district that snakes from near Columbus, an hour's drive north, to near
Canton and covers much of southeastern Ohio, Clinton beat Barack Obama by a staggering 31
points.
Today, those white, working-class voters are a key to Obama's chances to take this must-win
state.
86
Campaigns pay attention to Ohio because it's a crucial swing state that usually picks the national
winner. And they pay attention to Chillicothe because, in recent elections, it has almost exactly
220
matched the vote in the state at large.
The southern part of this political showdown state, with its heavily Appalachian flavor, is a place
where presidential candidates need to convince voters that they can be trusted.
Many of the folks living here among the rolling hills of Ross County love their guns, their families
and their God. And they don't appreciate politicians who they think would mess with any of those
things.
As Obama battled against McCain in Ohio, he often struck a populist tone while stressing the
economic woes plaguing the region and the nation. But while he was on the offense
economically, he was also playing defense culturally.
Neither Gore in 2000 nor Kerry in 2004 won Ohio -- or the presidency. Sen. Sherrod Brown (DOhio) said Obama doesn't have to win Ross County, but he has to do better than Gore and Kerry,
221
who each took 44 percent of the vote here.
Obama has shown signs of drawing support in such southern places as Scioto County's 'gun
country.' Scioto County is a socially conservative but independent voting region of 79,000 people
that has become another bellwether for the state.
Terry Johnson, a physician and head of the Scioto County GOP, said it's difficult for Democrats in
Southern Ohio to be successful if they don't support gun rights and are anti-abortion. But, he said,
he understands Obama's appeal, likening it to Bill Clinton's. "He is doing it on the economy,"
Johnson said about Obama's speech-making abilities. "It is like he is casting a spell. It is scary."
Democrats outnumber Republicans in Scioto County 2-1, but unaffiliated voters make up more
than half of the voters. President Bush won the county twice. President Clinton won it twice
before him.222
The state has sent thousands of soldiers to Iraq and Afghanistan, and both candidates have
created veterans' groups to push their plans for the war on terrorism.
One factor potentially in Obama's favor: The political landscape in Ohio has changed since 2004.
After a government corruption scandal, voters two years ago ended a decade of GOP control of
all state political offices. That means McCain is up against the popular Gov. Ted Strickland and
U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, a feisty liberal.
A challenge for Obama: overcoming the state's previous devotion to Hillary Clinton, who thumped
him by eight points in the primary.
He also has to factor in some racial prejudice. Strickland says he believes some voters won't
support Obama because he is black.223
Black support for Obama is so strong that high turnout among these voters in Ohio will greatly
contribute to Democratic victory. "High turnout, with 95 percent of the black vote going to Obama,
could be a definite factor in Obama winning Ohio," said David Bositis, senior research associate
at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington, D.C., which conducted a
recent survey of black voters.
Some polls suggest Obama is likely to receive more than 90 percent of the black vote nationally.
Bositis said this could have implications for Ohio. In 2004, 16 percent of black Ohio voters
224
supported President Bush over Kerry. Nationally, the figure was 11 percent.
87
Ohio is ground zero in this year's battle over charges of voter fraud versus voter suppression in
the presidential election. Republicans claim Democrats may be padding the election rolls with
phony voters. Democrats claim Republicans are mounting bogus challenges to block real voters
from the polls.
At the center of the storm is Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat. Republicans
charge she is actively administering registration practices to serve partisan ends.
The dispute runs the gamut of voting practices and law, including absentee ballots and early
voting as well as new registrations, especially those submitted by ACORN, a community activist
group whose political action committee endorsed Obama.
Ohio Republicans want Brunner to conduct a double-check of voter registrations by sending
information from the state's voter database to county elections boards, which then would
compare them with their own records for any discrepancies. The Republicans' bid to force
Brunner's hand was rejected by the U.S. Supreme Court. But the state GOP has kept up
225
pressure on Brunner, citing instances of irregularities in other states.
Ohio 1st District
Steve J. Chabot (R) Incumbent
Born: 01/22/1953, Cincinnati, OH
Home: Cincinnati
Education: BA College of William & Mary, 1975; JD Northern Kentucky University, 1978
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Donna)
Elected Office: Cincinnati City Council, 1985-90; Hamilton Co. Commissioner, 1990-94
Professional Career: Attorney
Steve Chabot was born in Cincinnati, where he still lives. He received a bachelor's degree in
history from the College of William & Mary in 1975 and a law degree from the Salmon P.
Chase College of Law at Northern Kentucky University in 1978.
He taught school in Cincinnati from 1975 to 1976.
Chabot served on the Cincinnati City Council, 1985-89, and on the Hamilton County Commission,
1990-94. He was first elected to the U.S. House in 1994.
Steve Chabot, who opposes abortion except if the mother's life is in danger or in cases of rape
and incest, scored a big legislative victory in 2003 when President Bush signed into law a ban on
a procedure termed "partial birth" abortion by abortion foes.
Chabot and his wife, Donna, have two children.226
Steve Driehaus (D)
Born: 06/24/1966, Cincinnati, OH
Home: Cincinnati
Education: BA Miami University, 1988; MPA Indiana University, 1995
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Lucienne)
Elected Office: OH House, 2000-present
Professional Career: Association Executive
Steven L. Driehaus, 41, was born and raised in Cincinnati. He lived with his parents and seven
siblings on the city's west side and attended the all-male Elder High School.
88
His father, active in the local Democratic party, made an unsuccessful run for Congress in 1968.
Driehaus received a degree in political science at Miami University in Oxford and a master's in
public affairs at Indiana University.
He also spent time as a Peace Corps volunteer in Senegal.
Before becoming a state representative in 2000, he worked for a local councilman and as a
legislative aide to U.S. Rep. Charlie Lukens.
Driehaus is employed as a consultant to the Community Building Institute.
He and his wife, Lucienne, have three children.227
Race Notes:
Chabot was a Republican survivor in 2006, holding on with the narrowest victory margin of his
career in a strongly anti-Republican political environment that swept away many of his GOP
colleagues.
With the political environment strongly in their favor again, Democrats are increasingly optimistic
that state Rep. Steve Driehaus will finally be the party candidate who can dislodge the incumbent
after seven terms in this district, which takes in most of Cincinnati.
Driehaus touts his work in the state legislature to curb the foreclosure crisis. Chabot emphasizes
fiscal restraint and a bipartisan image.
Big spending by both parties reflects that this is one of the nation’s most competitive races.228
Democrats were hopeful of ousting Chabot in 2006, an otherwise good year for Ohio Democrats,
but it was not meant to be. They are similarly optimistic this time with Driehaus, who is pro-life
and who hopes that Obama's candidacy will energize the sizable black vote in the district.229
Election Results
Candidate
2006
general
Steve Chabot
(R)
John Cranley (D)
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
105,680
52%
$2,991,572
96,584
48%
$2,021,495
2006
primary
Steve Chabot
(R)
Unopposed
2004
general
Steve Chabot
(R)
173,430
60%
$479,225
Greg Harris (D)
116,235
40%
$86,663
2002 (65%); 2000 (53%); 1998 (53%);
1996 (54%); 1994 (56%)
Ohio 15th District
Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
Born: 04/30/1949, Cleveland, OH
Home: Clintonville
Education: JD Ohio State University, 1980
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Bob)
89
Elected Office: Franklin Co. Commissioner, 2000-present
Professional Career: Public Official
Mary Jo Kilroy, 59, was born in Euclid, Ohio and currently lives in Clintonville, Ohio.
She grew up in Cleveland and worked her way through college at hospitals, as a waitress and as
a counselor at her alma mater, Cleveland State University, where she received a bachelor's
degree in political science in 1977. She received a law degree in 1980 and went into private
practice.
Kilroy, a Democrat, won her first elective office in 1991 for Columbus School Board and was reelected twice.
In 1996, she failed to unseat state Sen. Eugene Watts.
In 2000, Kilroy won an open seat on the Franklin County Board of Commissioners and was reelected in 2004, when she and Paula Brooks formed the first Democratic majority on the board in
more than a decade.
In 2006, Kilroy lost her attempt to take Ohio's 15th Congressional District seat away from
incumbent Deborah Pryce by a little more than 1,000 votes.
Republicans have portrayed Kilroy as an extreme liberal, mostly without success.
She and her husband, Robert, have two children.230
Steve Stivers (R)
Born: 03/24/1965, Ripley, OH
Home: Columbus
Education: BA Ohio State University, 1989; MBA Ohio State University
Religion: Methodist
Marital Status: Married (Karen)
Elected Office: OH Senate, 2003-present
Professional Career: Public Official; Military: USARNG, 1984-2008
Steve Stivers, 43, was born in Ripley, Ohio and currently lives in Columbus. He received both his
bachelor's degree and master's degree from Ohio State University.
He has served for more than 23 years in the Ohio Army National Guard and is a lieutenant
colonel. He served for nearly a year overseas in Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and Djibouti.
Stivers worked in the banking industry, including seven years for Bank One, and was a staff
member in the Ohio Senate for five years.
Ohio Senate Republicans appointed Stivers to the 16th District in January 2003 to fill out the term
of a departing senator.
Stivers' Senate term is up in November 2008, and Ohio law prevents him from running for reelection while running for the U.S. House.
Stivers is married to Karen.231
Race Notes:
Kilroy came close to knocking off Pryce in 2006; some say that's one of the factors that prompted
Pryce to retire. Kilroy is back once again, running against state Stivers.232
90
It’s not inconceivable the race to succeed Pryce will be as close as her 1,062-vote win in 2006
over Kilroy, who returns as the Democratic nominee in this Columbus-centered district.
Republican Steve Stivers is a state senator and Iraq War veteran; he also has been touting his
MBA degree and economics training as helpful assets during these tough economic times.
Democrats regularly refer to him as a “banking lobbyist,” a reference to Stivers’ past government
relations work for Bank One Corp.
Republicans say Kilroy had a profligate record as a county commissioner in Columbus and is too
233
closely aligned with labor unions.
High student turnout for Obama at Ohio State might boost Kilroy's chances of winning her battle
234
with Republican Stivers for a congressional seat.
Political analysts say Kilroy presents Democrats' best opportunity to pick up a congressional seat
235
in Ohio, even though Stivers is a strong candidate.
The 15th district takes in the western side of Columbus, some suburbs and rural areas to the
west.236
Don Elijah Eckhart could be a wild card in a close race between Kilroy and Stivers. Eckhart is
running as an independent, while Mark Noble will be on the ballot as the Libertarian candidate.237
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Deborah Pryce (R)
110,714
50%
$4,696,772
Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
109,659
50%
$2,749,231
$1,008,306
2006 primary
Deborah Pryce (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Deborah Pryce (R)
166,520
60%
Mark Brown (D)
110,915
40%
Ohio 16th District
John Boccieri (D)
Born: 10/05/1969, Youngstown, OH
Education: BS Saint Bonaventure University, 1992; MA Webster University, 1995; MA Webster
University, 1996
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Stacey)
Elected Office: OH House, 2001-06; OH Senate, 2006-present
Professional Career: Pilot: USAF, 1994-98; OHNG, 1998-present
John Boccieri, 38, was born in Youngstown, Ohio, and lives in New Middletown, Ohio.238
Boccieri received baseball and academic scholarships to play at St. Bonaventure University in
New York and later played semi-pro baseball.239
He received his bachelor's degree from St. Bonaventure University. He earned master's degrees
in public administration and business from Webster University in St. Louis.
91
Boccieri has 11 years of service in the military and is a major in the Air Force Reserve. An aircraft
commander aboard the C-130 Hercules, he recently deployed in four rotations in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
Boccieri was elected to the Ohio House of Representatives in 2000 and to the state Senate in
240
2006.
Boccieri has represented eastern Stark County for eight years in the Ohio legislature as a State
241
Representative and State Senator.
He is married to Stacey Kennedy Boccieri. They have three children.
242
Kirk Schuring (R)
Born: 09/17/1952
Home: Canton, OH
Education: Attended Kent State University
Religion: Lutheran
Marital Status: Married (Darlene)
Elected Office: OH House, 1993-2002; OH Senate, 2002-present
Kirk Schuring, 55, was born in and lives in Canton, Ohio. He graduated from Perry High School
and attended Kent State University but did not graduate.243
Schuring worked for his Family’s Insurance Agency, 1978-1993.244
Schuring has served in the Ohio Senate since 2003. He was a state representative from 1993 to
2002.
He and his wife, Darlene, have two children.245
Schuring has lived in the 16th Congressional District his entire life.246
Race Notes:
The race in this Canton-based district, which is open for the first time in 36 years, is between a
pair of state senators.
Democrat John Boccieri is a major in the Air Force Reserve who piloted C-130 military transport
aircraft during four tours of duty in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Republican Kirk Schuring is emphasizing his lifelong ties to the district and a pragmatic political
philosophy.
Democrats have attacked Schuring for voting for pay raises for Ohio legislators, though
Republicans point out that he’s declined to accept the raises.247
Ralph Regula, 83, a Republican and dean of the Ohio delegation to the House, stepped down
after 36 years in Congress.248
The Democrats have not held Ohio's 16th district since 1951.249
The 2000 Census indicated that one in four jobs in the district was in manufacturing, but the
district has hemorrhaged jobs in recent years.250
Bush carried Ohio's 16th district with 54% of the vote in 2004 and with 53% in 2000.251
92
The race has drawn national attention, with the Democratic Party picking it as a must win; a
conservative group targeting Boccieri for negative, automated phone calls and radio ads; and
252
money pouring in to both candidates from across the country.
93
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
2006 primary
2004 general
Total Votes
Ralph Regula (R)
137,167
58%
$1,016,885
Thomas Shaw (D)
97,955
42%
Ralph Regula (R)
32,526
58%
Matt Miller (R)
23,170
42%
Ralph Regula (R)
202,544
67%
$606,430
Jeff Seemann (D)
101,817
33%
$59,667
94
West Virginia
Electoral Votes:
5
First Polls Open:
6:30 AM ET
Battleground state
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
423,778
56.06
Kerry
326,541
43.2
Other
5,568
0.74
97,237
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
56.06%
43.20%
2000
51.92%
45.59%
1996
36.76%
51.51%
1992
35.39%
48.41%
1988
47.46%
52.20%
1984
55.11%
44.60%
1980
45.30%
49.81%
Democrats
Primary Date:
May 13
Clinton
66.9%
Obama
25.8%
Edwards
7.3%
Republicans
Primary Date:
May 13
McCain
76.0%
Huckabee
10.3%
Paul
5.0%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Joe Manchin (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
2
1
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
23
11
0
State House
72
28
0
7:30 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
669,509
Republican
349,730
Other
15,545
162,996
Total
1,197,780
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
1,444,605
VEP Turnout 2004
54.22%
1,812,035
Total population
37
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
280,666
15.5%
65 years and over
1,696,770
93.6%
Non-Hispanic White
64,072
3.5%
Black
12,395
0.7%
Asian
19,350
1.1%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Charleston
50,478
Huntington
48,982
Parkersburg
31,617
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
4.5%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$37,060
U.S.
$50,740
95
West Virginia
McCain is stumbling in nearly every battleground state except for one: he’s pulled ahead in West
Virginia.
Still, Obama is pouring in cash and staffers, fighting to win over West Virginians who voted
253
Democratic for 72 years until giving Bush two victories.
With national and battleground-state polls giving Obama a healthy lead, his campaign is
redoubling efforts in Appalachia, the scene of several primary-season defeats, to see if it can
finally win over the region's white, working-class voters.
Biden on Oct. 24 talked about plans to create jobs and cut middle-class taxes, at a rally in
Charleston, W.V., his first campaign visit to the Mountain State. Earlier in October, the Obama
campaign began airing its first statewide advertisements in West Virginia, where Republican
nominee John McCain has been leading in recent polls. A new TV ad called "Defend," airing
throughout Appalachia, where gun rights are a big concern, touts Obama's pledge to uphold the
254
Second Amendment.
Many West Virginia Democratic Party leaders had privately conceded there was no way that
West Virginia, with its conservative values, would vote for Obama. But then the financial crisis hit,
the bottom fell out of the stock market, and voter anxiety over the economy trumped all other
issues.
"McCain is feeling in West Virginia what both he and every Republican is feeling," said Jennifer
Duffy of The Cook Report, the influential political newsletter. "The impact of voter anger on the
economy." 255
With its large organized-labor segment and disproportionate share of the nation's economically
underprivileged, West Virginia used to be one of the most Democratic states in presidential
elections. But it is no more. McCain may well be the latest Republican beneficiary and Obama the
latest victim of the state's drift toward the GOP in presidential elections, because voters in this
coal-producing border South state have viewed recent Democratic White House hopefuls as too
liberal on cultural and environmental issues.
Two decades ago, West Virginia was one of just 10 states that backed Michael S. Dukakis. But a
dozen years later Al Gore became the first Democrat to lose the state since the 1984 Reagan reelection landslide -- and the five electoral votes that cost him, had they gone the other way, would
have put him in the White House. John Kerry's 43 percent showing four years later was the
poorest for a Democratic nominee since George McGovern.
Obama has made up much ground among the state’s Democrats since his poor performance in
the primary, but the breadth of his primary loss was extreme. Clinton won the West Virginia
primary 67%-26%.Obama lost each of its 55 counties to Clinton in the primary, taking as little as 8
percent in one.
Still, West Virginia is a Democratic stronghold at almost all other levels. Gov. Joe Manchin III is
overwhelmingly favored to win re-election against Republican Russ Weeks, a former state
senator. Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV, known throughout the state as "Jay," is a shoo-in to win a
fifth term. And looming over the state's politics is Robert C. Byrd, the longest-serving senator in
the nation's history, is in his ninth term.256
West Virginia's geography is helping Obama. The state is positioned on three sides by
battleground states: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Those states are getting lots of campaign
visits and advertising dollars. The TV and radio ads in those three states are spilling over into
West Virginia.257
96
The AFL-CIO is shifting resources to West Virginia in a move to persuade it's state members to
vote for Obama. Union spokesman Steve Smith says West Virginia was not on its campaign
agenda, but a tightening of the presidential race in the state made union officials rethink that
position. Smith says movement in the polls, and increasing economic issues persuaded the AFLCIO to bring its national campaign to the state.
There are about 125,000 AFL-CIO members in West Virginia.258
West Virginia – Governor Race
Gov. Joe Manchin (D) Incumbent
Born: 08-24-1947, Farmington, WV
Home: Charleston
Education: WV U., B.S. 1970
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: married (Gayle)
Elected Office: WV House, 1982-84; WV Senate 1986-96; WV Sec. of State, 2000-04
Professional Career: Co-owner, Manchin's Carpet and Tile, 1968-82; Owner, Enersystems, 19892000.
Manchin's family has a long political history in West Virginia; his father and grandfather both
served as mayor of Farmington and his uncle was secretary of state and state treasurer
One of Manchin's uncles was killed in a 1968 accident that claimed 78 men.
After graduating from West Virginia University, Manchin went to work in the carpet and furniture
business, helping to send his four siblings to college.
Manchin went on to start a coal brokerage company.
In 1982, at age 35, Manchin was elected to the House of Delegates.
He was elected to the state Senate in 1986, and served for 10 years before a failed gubernatorial
bid in 1996.
Manchin returned to politics in 2000, serving for four years as secretary of state before winning
the governorship in 2004.
In 2006, Manchin gained national renown as the public face of attempts to rescue 13 trapped coal
miners after the Sago Mine explosion. Manchin announced “the miracle of all miracles,” that 12 of
the miners had survived when in fact they had died, an almost unforgivable error considering the
temporary euphoria it generated among the grief-stricken families.
Soon after the disaster, Manchin signed into law a package of mine safety improvements.259
Russ Weeks (R)
Born: May 12, 1942, Beckley, WV
Home: Beckley, WV
Marital Status: married (Helen)
Religion: Roman Catholic
Education: GED, U.S. Navy, 1960
Elected Office: W. Va. State Senator, 2002-2006
Military service: U.S. Navy, 1958-1978
Professional career: 800 Hour Residential Carpentry, 1978; Outside Utility/Equipment Operator,
Carpenter, Kennedy Builders Incorporated, 1978-1981; ELK Run Coal Company, 1981-1992;
97
Carpenter, Pinnacle Construction, 1991-1993; Area Sales Representative, Select Specialty
Products, Incorporated, 1993-present
Weeks dropped out of high school to join the U.S. Navy in 1958 and served for 20 years,
including combat tours during the Vietnam War.
Weeks won a surprise victory over state Sen. Bill Wooton in 2002, and represented Raleigh
County until 2006, when Weeks' re-election bid failed.
Especially active in the antiabortion cause, Weeks crusaded against a local hospital while in the
Senate.
In 2006, West Virginia Democrats named him the "number one target" in the state Senate, and
260
Weeks was defeated by former Beckley police officer Mike Green.
Race Notes:
261
Incumbent Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is heavily favored to win.
Weeks mounted his campaign on the issues of abortion and a pay increase for lawmakers that
Manchin signed into law this year.
Manchin and Weeks both identified themselves as antiabortion, but Weeks believed Manchin was
vulnerable to charges of not doing enough on the issue.
In June, Weeks' lawsuit against state lawmakers and Manchin over the pay increase was
unanimously turned down by the state Supreme Court.262
Weeks ran one TV campaign ad during the election.
Weeks made an issue of a scandal involving the awarding of an unearned master's degree at
West Virginia University to Manchin's daughter, Heather Bresch. WVU President Mike Garrison
and several WVU officials resigned over the matter.263
Election Results
Candidate
2004 general
2000 general
Joe Manchin (D)
472,758
64%
Monty Warner (R)
253,131
34%
18,505
2%
149,362
53%
Lloyd Jackson (D)
77,052
27%
Jim Lees (D)
40,161
14%
Other
16,687
6%
Robert Wise (D)
324,822
50%
Cecil H. Underwood
(R)
305,926
47%
17,299
3%
Other
2004 primary
Total Votes
Joe Manchin (D)
Other
98
WEST VIRGINIA – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. John D. "Jay" Rockefeller IV (D) Incumbent
Born: June 18, 1937; New York, NY
Home: Charleston
Education: Harvard University, B.A., 1961; Int'l Christian U., Tokyo, Japan, 1957-60
Marital status: Married (Sharon)
Elected Office: WV House of Delegates, 1967-68; WV Secretary of State, 1968-?; Governor, WV
1977-84; U.S. Senate, 1984-present
Professional Career: VISTA volunteer; President, West Virginia Wesleyan College, 1973-76
Sen. Rockefeller is seeking a fifth term in the Senate.
John D. "Jay" Rockefeller IV was born in New York and resides in Charleston, W.Va.
He received a bachelor's degree in Far Eastern languages and history from Harvard University in
1961. He also studied Japanese in Tokyo and Chinese at Yale University.
Before entering state government, Rockefeller was special assistant to the director of the Peace
Corps. In 1964 he moved to Emmons, W.Va., as a VISTA anti-poverty volunteer and never left
the state.
He served in the West Virginia House from 1967 to 1969 and as West Virginia secretary of state
from 1969 to 1973.
He was the Democratic Party's gubernatorial nominee in 1972, but lost the election to Republican
Gov. Arch A. Moore Jr.
Rockefeller then served as president of West Virginia Wesleyan College from 1973 to 1976.
Rockefeller was elected governor in 1976 and took office in 1977. He was re-elected to a second
four-year term and served until 1984.
Jay Rockefeller first was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1984, spending $12 million of his own
money and winning by just 30,000 votes.
He was re-elected in 1990, 1996 and 2002.
Rockefeller is a multimillionaire senator and great-grandson of oil baron and philanthropist John
D. Rockefeller. But in recent campaigns, he has downplayed his personal wealth in one of the
nation's poorest states.
In 1997, he co-authored legislation creating the Children's Health Insurance Program which has
provided health care coverage to uninsured children.
Rockefeller used his familiarity with the Far East to attract Toyota Motor Manufacturing to West
Virginia.
Rockefeller, who currently chairs the Senate Intelligence committee, has said he regrets his vote
to authorize a war against Iraq in 2002.
Rockefeller and his wife, Sharon Percy, have four children.264
99
Jay Wolfe (R)
Born: April 5, 1955; Parkersburg, WV
Home: Salem
Education: Glenville State College, BBA 1977
Religion: Baptist
Elected Office: WV State Senator, 1987-1991
Professional Career: Insurance Agent
Jay Wolfe was born in Parkersburg, W.Va. and currently lives in Clarksburg, W.Va. He graduated
from Glenville State College with a degree in business administration and owns his own
insurance agency, along with other properties, including Sprint cell phone stores.
A one-time Democrat, Jay Wolfe became a Republican because of his strong antiabortion
convictions.
He served one term as a state senator from Wood County, winning in 1986 and losing a reelection bid four years later.
A former state senator from Wood County, Wolfe has lost elections to both U.S. Sen. Jay
Rockefeller (in 2002) and U.S. Sen. Robert C. Byrd (in 1988). This is his second run against
Rockefeller.
Wolfe and his wife, Mollie, have four grown children.265
Race Notes:
Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in West Virginia since 1956, and that losing streak will
continue with this year’s election.
Rockefeller, known throughout the state as “Jay,” won’t have any problem securing a fifth term
against Jay Wolfe, a state senator two decades ago who lost badly to Rockefeller in 2002 and to
Democratic Sen. Robert C. Byrd in 1988.266
Wolfe lost the 1988 race to Byrd by 35 percent to 65 percent. He lost the 2002 race to Rockefeller
by 37 percent to 63 percent.267
At the beginning of the 2008 election cycle, Republicans talked boldly about ousting Rockefeller,
but they didn’t find a top-notch candidate.268
Although he was elected to the Senate in 1984 and is gearing up to run for a fifth term,
Rockefeller remains the state’s junior Senator. His more senior colleague Byrd has been in the
chamber since 1959, and holds the distinction of being the Senate’s longest serving member.269
Wolfe has highlighted his antiabortion views in the campaign, and has paid for an ad on a
billboard in Clarksburg criticizing Rockefeller on high gas prices, saying the incumbent senator is
impeding efforts to drill for oil in the United States.270
The $700 billion bailout vote, which has since been modified by the administration, is something
Rockefeller supported and which his opponent points out as a telling difference between them.
"I'm opposed to bailouts," said Wolfe. "I would not have voted for that. It's the wrong way to go."
The bailout plan wasn't perfect, Rockefeller said, but he compares it to performing emergency
surgery to save a patient's life.271
100
Analysis by
West Virginia
Race Rating
Solid D
Safe Democratic
Safe Democrat
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
Total Votes
Jay Rockefeller (D)
275,281
63%
Jay Wolfe (R)
160,902
37%
198,327
90%
Bruce Barilla (D)
11,178
5%
William Galloway
(D)
11,173
5%
Jay Rockefeller (D)
456,526
77%
Betty A. Burks (R)
139,088
23%
2002 primary Jay Rockefeller (D)
1996 general
Prior winning
percentages:
$136,935
1990 (68%); 1984 (52%)
101
102
Alabama
Electoral Votes:
9
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
8:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
8:00 PM ET
The entire state closes at 8:00PM ET, except for the following precincts: Lannett, Lakeview, Rescue,
Shawmut, Langdale, Fairfax, Riverview, and Huguley - close at 7:00PM ET due to state statute.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
1,176,394
62.46%
Kerry
693,933
36.84%
Other
13,122
0.70%
482,461
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
62.46%
36.84%
2000
56.48%
41.57%
1996
50.12%
43.16%
1992
47.65%
40.88%
1988
59.17%
39.86%
1984
60.54%
38.28%
1980
48.75%
47.45%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Obama
56.0%
Clinton
41.6%
Edwards
1.5%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Huckabee
40.7%
McCain
37.3%
Romney
18.0%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Bob Riley (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
2
5
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
22
13
0
State House
62
43
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
2,874,611
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
3,469,805
VEP Turnout 2004
57.31%
4,627,851
Total population
State Pop. Rank
625,756
13.5%
65 years and over
3,175,751
68.6%
Non-Hispanic White
1,224,496
26.5%
Black
44,086
1.0%
Asian
124,741
2.7%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Birmingham
229,800
Montgomery
204,086
Mobile
191,411
Rate
Rate Rank
41st highest in U.S.
State Rate
5.3%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$40,554
U.S.
$50,740
103
ALABAMA – U.S. Senate Race
Jeff Sessions (R) Incumbent
Born: 12-24-1946, Hybart
Home: Mobile
Education: Huntingdon Col., B.A. 1969, U. of AL, J.D. 1973
Religion: Methodist
Marital Status: married (Mary)
Elected Office: AL Atty. Gen., 1994–96
Military Career: Army Reserves, 1973–86
Professional Career: Practicing atty., 1973–75, 1977–81, 1993–94; Asst. U.S. Atty., 1975–77;
U.S. Atty., 1981–93.
Sen. Sessions is seeking a third term.
Jeff Sessions was born and raised in Hybart, Ala., but went to school in nearby Camden in
southwest Alabama. He resides in Mobile.
Sessions earned a bachelor's degree from Huntingdon College in Montgomery, Ala., in 1969 and
a law degree from the University of Alabama in 1972. He worked in private practice in
Russellville, Ala., from 1973 to 1975 and then served as assistant U.S. attorney in Mobile from
1975 to 1977.
He worked at a Mobile law firm from 1977 to 1981, and then became U.S. attorney for Alabama's
Southern District. He left in 1993 to return to private law practice until he was elected to the state
attorney's office in November 1994.
He was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996.
Sessions has earned a reputation as one of the Senate's most conservative members, both on
social and fiscal issues.
Sessions and his wife, the former Mary Blackshear, have three children.272
State Sen. Vivian Davis Figures (D)
Born: 1-24-1957, Mobile
Home: Mobile
Education: U. of New Haven, BS 1980, Jones Law School, J.D.
Religion:
Martial status: Michael (died 1997)
Elected Office: Mobile City Council, 1993-1996, state Senate 1997-present
Professional Career: Mobile Community Action, Inc., 1980-1982, The New Times newspaper, and
then she owned her own company, PerfectPrint, Inc.
Vivian Davis Figures was born in Mobile, Ala., and continues to call the Gulf Coast city home.
She received her bachelor's degree from the University of New Haven in 1980 and returned
home to work for the Mobile Community Action program, where she managed a summer lunch
program and then the foster grandparents program.273
Figures began her political career in 1993 on the Mobile City Council.274
Then she managed a weekly newspaper, The New Times, and ran a printing company until 1996.
In the state Senate, Figures chairs the Senate Education Committee, but the senator, who has
asthma, is best known for pushing bills to restrict smoking in public places. That work has helped
her build a grass-roots organization throughout the state.
104
Figures is making her first race for statewide office.
275
In 1996, her husband, state Senate President Pro Tem Michael Figures, died in office.
In 1997, she won a hotly contested special election to replace him in the Senate and was reelected in 1998, 2002 and 2006.276
She has three adult sons.
277
Race Notes:
Sessions is a clear favorite to win a third term.
The Democrats had hopes that longtime state senator Figures could break Sessions’ lock on the
state, but his ideological popularity and overwhelming fundraising have dashed any chances of a
Democratic win.278
While national Democrats are excited about several Senate races around the country this cycle,
Alabama just isn’t one of them.
Sessions is expected to cruise to victory in November.279
Sessions supports Bush's tax cuts and the Iraq invasion, while Figures deplores an administration
that plunged the nation's surplus into the red and sent troops to war on erroneous claims.
If elected, Figures would become the first black U.S. senator for Alabama and the first woman
elected to the post in this state.280
Analysis by
Alabama
Race Rating
Solid R
Safe Republican
Safe Republican
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
Jeff Sessions (R)
792,561
59%
$5,115,730
Susan Parker (D)
538,878
40%
$1,185,718
21,584
2%
Other
2002 primary Jeff Sessions (R)
1996 general
Total Votes
Unopposed
Jeff Sessions (R)
786,436
52%
$3,862,359
Roger Bedford (D)
681,651
45%
$2,284,801
31,306
2%
Other
105
Alabama 2nd District
Bobby Bright (D)
Born: July 21, 1952, Midland City, Ala.
Home: Montgomery
Education: B.S., Political Science , Auburn U.; Masters, Criminal Justice , Troy U.; JD Thomas
Goode Jones School of Law,
Marital Status: Married (Lynn)
Elected Office: Mayor of Montgomery
Professional Experience: Attorney – Practiced for 16 years; Former Chief Counsel, Alabama
Department of Corrections
Bobby Neal Bright, Sr. was the 13th of 14 children born into a Dale County farming family. He
attended Enterprise Community College before transferring to Auburn University.
He earned a master's degree in criminal justice from Troy University and graduated from the
Montgomery Policy Academy before deciding on a career in law.
Earning a law degree from Faulkner University, he worked as a Montgomery attorney, including
as chief counsel for the Alabama Department of Corrections.
He is serving his third term as Montgomery mayor.281
Bright defeated a former state Republican Party chairman to win his first mayoral race in 1999.
He was re-elected in 2003 and 2007.282
Bobby Bright, 56, had never identified with either major political party before announcing that he
would run as a Democrat for retiring Rep. Terry Everett's 2nd District seat in southeastern
Alabama.
He is running for Congress as a practical Democrat who would focus on economic issues while
siding with conservatives on hot-button political issues such as abortion and gun rights.283
This is Bright's first campaign for federal office.284
Bright and his wife, Lynn Clardy Bright, have three children.285
Jay Love (R)
Born: August 24, 1968
Home: Montgomery, Ala.
Education: BA (Finance), Auburn University
Marital Status: Married (Cheri).
Elected Office: Alabama Legislature in November of 2002-Present.
Professional Experience: N/A
Jay K. Love Jr. was born and still lives in Montgomery. He has a bachelor's degree in finance
from Auburn University-Montgomery.
An entrepreneur, he opened his first Subway Sandwich shop in 1992, eventually owning a total of
16 shops in the Montgomery area. He made a fortune selling the shops in 2006 and now runs a
commercial real estate company.
He is serving his second term as a state representative, and is minority whip.286 Love won a seat
in the state Legislature in 2002 and was re-elected in 2006.
This is Jay Love’s first campaign for federal office.
287
106
Love placed first among a crowded field of candidates in the June Republican primary for the 2nd
288
District congressional seat, then defeated state Sen. Harri Anne Smith in a July runoff.
Jay and his wife, Cheri, have four children.289
The Race:
Republican state Rep. Jay Love has a narrow advantage over Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright
in the state’s conservative southeast corner, which hasn’t sent a Democrat to Congress since
1962.
That advantage is much the result of a push from national Republicans who have poured time
and money into Love’s campaign.
As of Sept. 30 he had raised almost $2 million and had $307,000 in cash on hand. But Bright,
who earlier this year won the endorsement of the Blue Dog Coalition of fiscally conservative
Democrats, has stayed competitive on a platform of balancing the national budget. Still, he had
290
just $66,000 in cash as this month began.
Love is seeking to keep retiring Rep. Terry Everett's southeastern Alabama district in GOP
hands, as it has been for more than four decades.
Democrats got the candidate they wanted: Bright, the mayor of Montgomery, is well-known and a
social conservative. The Republican nominee is state Rep. Love, the choice of national GOP
leaders, who won a brutal and nasty primary runoff in mid-July. The contest was so negative that
some in the party, including Everett, warned about consequences for November 4.291
The national Republicans have poured time and money into Love’s campaign.292
Republican state Sen. Harri Anne Smith endorsed Democratic candidate Bright. Republicans
accused Bright of buying the endorsement by agreeing to help Smith retire $150,000 in campaign
debt, which the mayor adamantly denied.
Sen. Harri Anne Smith lost a bitter primary earlier this year to Love.293
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Terry Everett (R)
Charles James (D)
Total Votes
124,302
69%
$330,375
54,450
30%
$5,292
2006 primary
Terry Everett (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Terry Everett (R)
177,086
71%
$1,937,038
70,562
28%
$1,320
Charles James (D)
Alabama 5th District
Parker Griffith (D)
Born: 08/06/1942, Shreveport, AL
Home: Huntsville
Education: BS Louisiana State University, 1970; MD Louisiana State University
Marital Status: Married (Virginia)
Elected Office: AL Senate, 2006-present
Professional Career: Retired Oncologist
107
A Louisiana native, Parker Griffith earned undergraduate and medical degrees at Louisiana State
University before doing a medical residency at the University of Texas.
He opened a cancer practice in Huntsville in 1975. He also has been minority owner in several
businesses, including nursing homes and radio stations.
Griffith made a fortune as a doctor and businessman. Now retired, he entered politics late in life,
making his first bid for office when he ran for mayor of Huntsville in 2004.
He is a state senator, representing north Alabama's 7th District.
In running for north Alabama's 5th Congressional District, he has cast himself as a natural
successor to conservative Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer, who is retiring his seat after 18 years.
Parker and his wife, Virginia, have 5 children.
294
Wayne Parker (R)
Born: 09/28/1959, Huntsville.
Home: Huntsville
Education: BS Auburn University
Marital Status: Married (Lisa)
Professional Career: Insurance Executive
Wayne Parker was born in Huntsville where he now resides. He received a degree in economics
from Auburn University and a master's degree from the American Graduate School of
International Management.
He worked in the Washington area for the International Foundation and the Export-Import Bank
before returning to Huntsville in 1994 to run for Congress.
After two unsuccessful bids to unseat Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer, he formed a lobbying firm
named The Churchill Group. He lobbied Congress until 2001 on issues such as lowering estate
taxes and corporate taxes. His father-in-law, former Republican Rep. Bill Archer, chaired the taxwriting House Ways and Means Committee at the time.
Parker gradually ended his lobbying business and began selling insurance. He is now a vice
president of the Insurance Office of America, one of the largest privately-held insurance
companies in the country.
Parker and his wife, Lisa, have 4 children.295
Race Notes:
State Sen. Parker Griffith’s race to keep the state’s northernmost tier of counties in Democratic
hands has been slowed by insurance executive Wayne Parker, who lost previous bids for the
seat in 1994 and 1996.
The seat presents one of the few opportunities this year for a Republican takeover, and so each
party has rallied to its candidate’s side with money and organizational support.
As of the end of last month, Griffith’s center-right campaign had raised just more than $1 million,
split between individual and PAC contributions, and had $127,000 cash on hand.
Parker had raised a little less but had about $100,000 more in the bank.296
108
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
2006 general
Bud Cramer (D)
Unopposed
$589,469
2006 primary
Bud Cramer (D)
Unopposed
2004 general
Bud Cramer (D)
200,999
73%
$588,838
74,145
27%
$12,610
Gerald Wallace (R)
109
110
Connecticut
Electoral Votes:
7
First Polls Open:
6:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
857,488
54.31%
Bush
693,826
43.95%
Other
27,455
1.74%
163,662
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
43.95%
54.31%
2000
38.44%
55.91%
1996
34.69%
52.83%
1992
35.78%
42.21%
1988
51.98%
46.87%
1984
60.73%
38.83%
1980
48.16%
38.52%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Obama
50.7%
Clinton
46.7%
Edwards
1.0%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
McCain
52.0%
Romney
32.9%
Huckabee
7.0%
Party Breakdown
Governor
M. Jodi Rell (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
4
1
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
23
13
0
State House
107
44
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
728,177
Republican
412,675
Other
6,423
820,268
Total
1,967,543
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
2,505,018
VEP Turnout 2004
65.21%
3,502,309
Total population
29
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
472,284
13.5%
65 years and over
2,604,349
74.4%
Non-Hispanic White
360,645
10.3%
Black
119,611
3.4%
Asian
403,375
11.5%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Bridgeport
136,695
Hartford
124,563
New Haven
123,932
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
6.1%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$65,967
U.S.
$50,740
111
Connecticut 4th District
Christopher Shays (R) Incumbent
Born: 10/18/1945, Darien, CT
Home: Bridgeport
Education: BA Principia College, 1968; MBA New York University, 1974; MPA New York
University, 1978
Religion: Christian Science
Marital Status: Married (Betsi)
Elected Office: CT House, 1974-87
Christopher Shays grew up in Darien, Conn., and later moved to Stamford, where he lived until
moving to Bridgeport in 1999.
He graduated from Darien High School in 1964. He received a bachelor's degree in American
history and political science in 1968 from Principia College and master's degrees from New York
University in business in 1974 and in public administration in 1978.
Shays and his wife joined the Peace Corps and taught in the Fiji Islands from 1968 to 1970. He
then worked as a real estate broker.
Shays was an executive aide to Trumbull First Selectman Larry Heimann from 1971 to 1972.
Shays served in the Connecticut House from 1974 to 1987. He was elected to the U.S. House in
an August 1987 special election.
Christopher Shays' independent reputation has earned him both support within this moderate
district and criticism within his party's leadership. Shays split with his party on campaign reform,
environmental protection and urban issues.
He was the chief sponsor of a 2006 bill to require nonprofit political groups, known as 527s, to
register as political committees and abide by contribution limits.
But he has been a steadfast supporter of Bush's Iraq policy.297
Chris Shays, the only remaining House Republican from New England.298
Shays and his wife, Betsi, have one daughter.299
Jim Himes (D)
Born: 07/05/1966, Lima, Peru
Home: Cos Cob. CT.
Education: BA Harvard College, 1988
Marital Status: Married (Mary)
Professional Experience: Businessman.
James Andrew Himes was born in Lima, Peru, and moved with his family to the United States at
age 10. He attended public schools in New Jersey before graduating from Harvard University in
1988 with a degree in social studies, and Oxford University in 1990 following a Rhodes
scholarship.
He is a former vice president of Goldman Sachs and now vice president of Enterprise
Foundation, a non-profit community affordable housing organization.
112
Jim Himes says he's running for Congress because Republican Rep. Chris Shays is out of touch
with 4th District voters and too supportive of President Bush and the Iraq war.
Himes supports tax policies that encourage jobs in the U.S. rather than abroad and supports
300
universal health care coverage. He believes in bringing troops home from Iraq immediately.
Himes is a member of the Greenwich town finance board and has been chairman of the local
Democratic Town Committee.
This is Himes' first run for Congress.
Himes won the Democratic Party's endorsement and then soundly won against his only
challenger in the Democratic primary, with 87 % of the vote.301
Himes and wife, Mary, have two young daughters.
302
The Race:
The district is best known for the enclaves of Greenwich and Darien. But it also takes in
Bridgeport, where a wave of newly registered Democrats turning out for Obama could bring an
end to Shays’ 21-year-plus career. (He only narrowly survived his last two races.)
The Democratic challenger is Jim Himes, a former Goldman Sachs investment banker who says
Shays is “completely wrong” on the economy and the Iraq War and neglects local transportation
needs.
Shays touts his independence — his first TV spot featured both Obama and John McCain — and
has differences with the GOP on domestic issues, including the environment and gay rights.303
Himes is not well known but will put a ton of his own money into the race.304
Himes has nearly matched Shays' campaign war chest.305
Shays won his seat in 2004, but the district went for Democratic presidential candidate John
Kerry by 19,000 votes, and Barack Obama is expected to win in Connecticut easily.306
Election Results
Candidate
2006
general
Christopher
Shays (R)
Diane Farrell (D)
Other
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
106,510
51%
$3,804,187
99,450
48%
$2,961,500
3,059
1%
2006
primary
Christopher
Shays (R)
Unopposed
2004
general
Christopher
Shays (R)
152,493
52%
$2,255,210
Diane Farrell (D)
138,333
48%
$1,542,410
2002 (64%); 2000 (58%); 1998 (69%);
1996 (60%); 1994 (74%); 1992 (67%);
1990 (77%); 1988 (72%); 1987 (57%)
113
114
Delaware
Electoral Votes:
3
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
200,152
53.35%
Bush
171,660
45.75%
Other
3,378
0.90%
28,492
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
45.75%
53.35%
2000
41.90%
54.96%
1996
36.54%
51.78%
1992
35.31%
43.51%
1988
55.88%
43.48%
1984
59.78%
39.93%
1980
47.16%
44.83%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Obama
53.1%
Clinton
42.3%
Edwards
1.3%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
McCain
45.0%
Romney
32.5%
Huckabee
15.3%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Ruth Ann Minner (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
0
1
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
13
8
0
State House
19
22
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
270,387
Republican
180,078
Other
137,587
N/A
Total
588,052
As Of
10/1/2008
VEP 2008
638,693
VEP Turnout 2004
65.15%
864,764
Total population
45
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
117,678
13.6%
65 years and over
594,449
68.7%
Non-Hispanic White
180,474
20.9%
Black
24,590
2.8%
Asian
56,152
6.5%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Wilmington
72,868
Dover
35,811
Newark
29,992
Rate
Rate Rank
21st highest in U.S.
State Rate
4.8%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$54,610
U.S.
$50,740
115
Delaware – Governor Race
State Treasurer Jack Markell (D)
Born: 11-26-1960, Newark, DE
Home: Newark, DE
Education: BA, Economics/Development Studies, Brown University; MBA, University of Chicago
Marital status: married (Carla)
Elected Office: Treasurer, State of Delaware, 1998-present.
Professional Career: Senior Management, Comcast Corporation; Founder, Delaware Money
School; Banker, First Chicago Corporation; Consultant, McKinsey and Company, Incorporated;
307
Senior Vice President for Corporate Development, Nextel.
Jack Markell's father was a University of Delaware accounting professor and his mother was a
308
social worker.
Markell met his future wife, Carla, in kindergarten.
Markell was a state champ in ping pong as a 10-year-old.
309
Markell was re-elected to a third term as State Treasurer in November 2006 with 70% of the
vote.310
He earned a fortune in the telecommunications industry, joining a small startup company called
Fleet Call and helping it grow into the company now known as Nextel, a name that he coined.311
Markell stunned Democratic leaders when he beat Lt. Gov. John Carney in September, even
though the party spent big money on Carney in the most expensive gubernatorial primary in state
history.
Markell enjoyed significant advertising and media exposure during the primary.312
William Swain "Bill" Lee (R)
Born: 12-18-1935, Philadelphia, PA
Home: Middletown, DE
Education: BA, Duke University, 1957; JD, University of Pennsylvania, 1960
Religion: Methodist
Marital status: divorced
Professional Career: Officer, United States Marine Corps, 1961-1964; Deputy Attorney General,
Delaware Department of Justice, 1965-1969; Attorney, Delts & Lee, 1969-1977; Judge, Sussex
County Family Court, 1977-1986; Judge, Delaware Superior Court, 1986-1989; Resident Judge,
Sussex County, 1989-1999313
Bill Lee is a former Marine Corps officer and a retired Superior Court judge.
Lee spent 22 years as a judge in family and superior courts and has been active in GOP politics
for decades.314
As Resident Judge of Sussex County, Lee oversaw the now-famous 1998 murder trial of Thomas
Capano, a wealthy attorney convicted of murdering Anne Marie Fahey, who worked on then-Gov.
Carper’s staff.
This is Lee’s third attempt at the Governor’s office.315
In 2000, Lee drew the ire of GOP officials in waging a campaign that brought him within 46 votes
of winning the 2000 primary against the party-endorsed candidate.316
In 2004, Lee lost to Democratic incumbent Ruth Ann Minner, 51% to 46%.
317
116
Lee has taught real estate law and criminal justice at Delaware Technical and Community
318
College's Owens Campus for more than 20 years.
Race Notes:
Jack Markell is favored to win the office to be vacated by term-limited Gov. Ruth Ann Minner
(D).319
Democrat Bill Lee expected Lt. Gov. John Carney to win in the Democratic primary, and facing
him in the general election was more to his liking. Carney was easier to paint as a part of the
320
relatively unpopular administration of Gov. Minner.
Lee and Markell agree they have an immense challenge: coping with a state economy in which
revenue projections have dropped despite a hefty package of tax and fee increases approved in
June.
Both candidates say the state needs better public education and incentives for small businesses
and entrepreneurs. Lee has embraced an education reform plan from a coalition of business
leaders, educators and state officials. Markell has not committed to it, prompting accusations from
Lee that the treasurer is afraid to take on the teachers union.
Republicans have targeted Markell with attacks focusing on a 1994 lawsuit that accused him and
other Nextel executives of making false and misleading statements to artificially inflate the
company's stock price. The lawsuit was settled for $27 million with no admission of wrongdoing
by the defendants.
Democrats in Delaware claim about 90,000 more registered voters than Republicans.321
Markell has raised more than $4 million for this race -- an unprecedented amount in a
gubernatorial race in Delaware -- most of it before his Sept. 9 Democratic primary victory.
In the most recent round of financial disclosures, he reported a 10-to-1 financial advantage over
his Lee, who had raised about $400,000 since entering the race in May.322
Election Results
Candidate
2004 general
Ruth Ann Minner
(D)
185,687
51%
Bill Lee (R)
167,115
46%
12,206
3%
Ruth Ann Minner
(D)
191,484
59%
John M. Burris (R)
128,436
40%
3,263
1%
Other
2000 general
Total Votes
Other
117
DELAWARE – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Joseph Biden (D) Incumbent
Born: 11-20-1942, Scranton, PA
Home: Wilmington
Education: U. of DE, B.A. 1965, Syracuse U., J.D. 1968
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: married (Jill)
Elected Office: New Castle Cnty. Cncl. 1970–72.
Professional Career: Practicing atty., 1968–72
Sen. Biden is seeking a seventh term in the Senate, but he’s really hoping to win the vice
presidency.
The son of a Scranton, Pa., automobile dealer, Biden overcame a childhood stutter and often
speaks with charming self-deprecation.
As a 29-year-old county councilman, Biden in 1972 challenged Republican Sen. J. Caleb Boggs
in a campaign run by his sister. Biden won by 3,162 votes.
Five weeks later, Biden’s wife, Neilia, and their infant daughter, Amy, were killed and their two
sons seriously injured in an automobile accident. At first Biden said he would not accept the job
he had just won, but Democratic Leader Mike Mansfield of Montana convinced him to take
office.323
In 1977, Biden married Jill Tracy Jacobs. They have a daughter, Ashley. Both of his sons are
lawyers.324
A short presidential bid in the 1988 ended when he withdrew from contention for the Democratic
nomination in September 1987. He left the race after reports showed that he had plagiarized
passages in speeches and in a 1965 law school paper, and had exaggerated his résumé.
Later, in 1988, a brain aneurysm nearly killed him.
Biden has been outspoken as a member of the Judiciary Committee, which he chaired the
Judiciary Committee from 1987 to 1995.325
Biden uses his Foreign Relations chairmanship regularly to blast the Bush administration’s
handling of the war.326
Biden voted to authorize the Iraq war in 2002 but has become a harsh critic of President Bush.327
He commutes by train from Wilmington to Washington every day.
Nearing the end of his sixth term, Biden has spent more than half his life in the Senate, a
distinction held by just three other current senators — fellow Democrats Robert C. Byrd of West
Virginia, Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts and Daniel K. Inouye of Hawaii.328
Biden abandoned his 2008 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in early January after a
poor showing in the Iowa caucuses. 329
His son Joseph "Beau" Biden III has taken the first step toward what could be a Biden dynasty in
Delaware, winning election in 2006 as state attorney general.330
Beau Biden is also a JAG Captain in the Delaware National Guard. His unit, the 261st Signal
Brigade, was notified last year that they would deploy overseas. Beau Biden's yearlong
331
deployment to Iraq will start sometime in September or October.
118
Christine O'Donnell (R)
Born: August 27, 1969, Philadelphia, PA
Home: Wilmington, Del.
Education: BA, Fairleigh Dickinson University
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: single
Elected Office: none
Professional Career: Republican National Committee, Intercollegiate Studies Institute.
Christine O'Donnell, a conservative Catholic activist and outspoken opponent of abortion,
pornography and premarital sex, has gained considerable name recognition as a commentator
and guest on cable television news shows.
After finishing her undergraduate studies in English and communication, she worked in
Washington, D.C., for several years, including a stint with the Republican National Committee.
O'Donnell moved to Delaware in 2003 to take a job with the Intercollegiate Studies Institute, a
conservative think tank. She was fired less than a year later, prompting her to sue ISI for gender
discrimination. O'Donnell dropped the lawsuit earlier this year, saying she could not afford to
pursue it.
O'Donnell is making her second bid for a U.S. Senate seat. She sought to challenge incumbent
Democrat Thomas Carper in 2006, but finished last in a three-way GOP primary. Undaunted, she
waged a write-in campaign that garnered her more votes than the Libertarian candidate for
Senate, as well as two of the four U.S. House candidates, in the general election.
O'Donnell, who is single, now works as a political commentator and marketing consultant.332
Race Notes:
Biden should have little trouble winning reelection, but his name will be on the ballot more than
once in Delaware.
While Biden is Obama’s vice-presidential running mate, there’s nothing in Delaware law
prohibiting him from simultaneously seeking a seventh term to the Senate, which Biden was
doing before Obama tapped him in late August to join the Democratic White House ticket.333
According to Delaware law, Biden can run for Senate while running for vice president, a situation
akin to 2000 when Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID) did the same thing in Connecticut when he was Al
Gore’s running mate.
And since Biden isn’t expected to resign from the Senate before November, if he wins re-election
(which he’s widely expected to do) but loses his vice presidential bid, he can simply return to the
Senate next year.
If Biden is elected vice president, he would have until Inauguration Day to relinquish his Senate
seat. Then the governor would be responsible for appointing a replacement until a special
election could be held.
Conventional wisdom has long been that Biden’s son, Beau Biden, who serves as state attorney
general, would one day replace his father in the Senate. But Beau Biden’s Army JAG unit just
deployed to Iraq for a yearlong tour.
And though Delaware Democratic insiders argue that his obligations to his JAG unit don’t
necessarily take Beau Biden off the table for the Senate job, it does mean that a placeholder
Senator could be appointed to fill the post until a 2010 special election could be held.
At that time, Beau Biden would be coming off an overseas deployment and could make an even
more attractive candidate.
119
Such a move might also set the stage for a major political showdown if former Gov. and longtime
GOP Rep. Mike Castle decides to toss his hat into the ring for the Senate job.
But, again, that would all have to wait until the 2010 cycle.
334
For now, Biden has barely mentioned his Republican opponent, O'Donnell, and hasn’t been
spending much time campaigning for his Senate race.
Analysis by
Delaware
Race Rating
Solid D
Safe Democratic
Safe Democrat
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
2002 general Joseph Biden (D)
Raymond Clatworthy
(R)
2002
primary
135,253
58%
$3,152,762
94,793
41%
$1,983,141
Joseph Biden (D)
Unopposed
1996 general Joseph Biden (D)
165,465
60%
$2,466,499
105,088
38%
$1,126,427
5,038
2%
Raymond Clatworthy
(R)
Other
Prior winning
percentages:
1990 (63%); 1984 (60%); 1978 (58%);
1972 (51%)
120
Washington D.C.
Electoral Votes:
3
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
202,970
89.18%
Bush
21,256
9.34%
Other
3,360
1.48%
181,714
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
9.34%
89.18%
2000
8.95%
85.16%
1996
9.34%
85.19%
1992
9.10%
84.64%
1988
14.30%
82.65%
1984
13.73%
85.38%
1980
13.44%
74.82%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 12
Obama
75.4%
Clinton
23.8%
Edwards
0.3%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 12
McCain
67.6%
Huckabee
16.4%
Paul
8.0%
Party Breakdown
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
U.S. House
1
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
297,326
Republican
29,622
Other
5,796
66,383
Total
399,127
As Of
8/11/2008
VEP 2008
443,175
VEP Turnout 2004
57.04%
588,292
Total population
50
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
69,741
11.9%
65 years and over
191,463
32.5%
Non-Hispanic White
324,875
55.2%
Black
19,799
3.4%
Asian
49,016
8.3%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Washington City
588,292
Rate
Rate Rank
33rd highest in U.S.
Other
0
State Rate
7.0%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$54,317
U.S.
$50,740
121
122
Florida
Electoral Votes:
27
Battleground State
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
7:00 & 8:00 PM ET
Counties in ETZ close at 7:00PM ET. Counties in CTZ will close at 8:00PM ET.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
3,964,522
52.10
Kerry
3,583,544
47.09
Other
61,744
0.81
380,978
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
52.10%
47.09%
2000
48.85%
48.84%
1996
42.32%
48.02%
1992
40.89%
39.00%
1988
60.87%
38.51%
1984
65.32%
34.66%
1980
55.52%
38.50%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Jan. 29
Clinton
49.8%
Obama
32.9%
Edwards
14.4%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Jan. 29
McCain
36.0%
Romney
31.0%
Huckabee
13.5%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Charlie Crist (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
9
16
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
14
26
0
State House
42
77
1
Voter Registration
Democratic
4,453,008
Republican
3,954,884
Other
347,519
1,988,679
Total
10,744,090
As Of
8/30/2008
VEP 2008
12,956,717
VEP Turnout 2004
66.17%
18,251,243
Total population
4
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
3,098,364
17.0%
65 years and over
11,098,780 60.8%
Non-Hispanic White
2,896,693
15.9%
Black
411,726
2.3%
Asian
3,755,560
20.6%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Jacksonville
805,605
Miami
409,719
Tampa
336,823
Rate
X in every XXX households
Rate Rank
Xth highest in U.S.
State Rate
6.6%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$47,804
U.S.
$50,740
123
Florida – Battleground State
McCain clearly could still win the state's 27 electoral votes. But the battle in Florida is offering -on the widest stage of any of the contested primary states -- an object lesson in the disparities in
the resources, aggressiveness and political cunning that McCain and Obama are taking to
contests across the country.
McCain had a commanding lead in Florida last spring, in a state where Obama did not campaign
in the primaries and only hired a state director in June. McCain is now locked in a neck-and-neck
335
race for a trove of electoral votes that is vital to his hopes of victory.
Florida has only supported one Democratic presidential candidate since backing Jimmy Carter in
336
1976 -- Bill Clinton in 1996.
Bush won Florida twice, though in a disputed election the first time, and McCain is trying hard to
defend Florida against Obama's onslaught lest he has to make up the 27 electoral votes he would
lose. Obama could lose Florida and still be in a stronger position to cobble together wins in
337
enough states for victory.
Republicans sent up flares over the summer, warning that the Florida of 2008 is not what it was in
2004, McCain yielded the airwaves to Obama, focusing his attention, money and energy on other
states. McCain's campaign waited until Sept. 1 to begin a serious round of advertising.338
The scale of Obama's advertising and organization has prompted some Republicans to question
McCain's chances. Others have also grumbled not so privately about the McCain ground game in
Florida, saying it does not seem as well-oiled and disciplined as the Bush-Cheney effort of
2004.339
McCain’s once-close relationship with Gov. Charlie Crist is now reportedly strained.340 Tension
has reportedly been mounting between the campaign and state Republicans. Several weeks ago,
Florida GOP chair Jim Greer convened a private meeting with both camps to discuss the
darkening outlook.341
Obama has blanketed the state with advertising and built a huge get-out-the-vote operation -- on
vivid display this week in the long lines for early voting. The sight dispirited Republican leaders in
the state.
Obama's huge financial advantage has turned out to be more lopsided here than in any of the
other contested states, displaying, in an outsized way, what McCain is facing in states like
Colorado and Indiana.
For the week that ended Oct. 23, Obama spent $4.2 million on advertisements, compared with $1
million by McCain, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, an independent group that
monitors campaign advertising. It was almost impossible to turn on a television this week without
seeing an Obama advertisement showing McCain saying he had voted with President Bush ''90
percent of the time.''342
Obama, riding a wave of economic discontent, has already won a tactical victory by forcing
McCain to work so hard for Florida, which gave Bush an edge of nearly 400,000 votes last time.
Obama can win without Florida; McCain can't.343
Obama's campaign moved to exploit this state's increasingly popular, and relatively new, early
voting program in a way McCain did not. Obama used high-profile appearances to hand out
literature and urge supporters who turned out to vote, often right up the street from the rally. The
result could be seen in long lines of people at early voting sites.
McCain's advisers said they had put far less effort into the early voting program, instead sticking
with what has worked for Florida Republicans for a decade: building up their margin with
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absentee ballots. But several Republicans said they were afraid that emphasis was missing the
way voting behavior is changing here.
Obama has used sophisticated measures here to find and register new supporters. And recent
344
Florida statistics, which sent a shiver of fear through Republicans, attest to his success:
Through their persistent registration drive, Florida Democrats have doubled their lead in
registered voters since last year, from about 312,000 to almost 660,000, according to state
figures released on Oct. 20. That surge of new registrants -- plus 600,000 African-Americans and
an overlapping 900,000 young people who were already registered in 2004 but didn't vote -could "fundamentally change the state," says Obama deputy campaign manager Steve
345
Hildebrand, who has decamped to Miami to direct operations there.
Political history suggested that Obama, as an African-American, would have trouble winning
support from two of the state's key constituencies: Hispanics and Jews – that hasn’t proved to be
the case. And this is the state of one of McCain's great primary triumphs: His decisive victory
here in January effectively handed him his party's nomination. So, McCain's advisers decided to
346
focus on other states, limiting spending in a very expensive state.
Florida is a difficult place to campaign. And it's also expensive, with its many media markets.
Florida has a high population of transplants from the Northeast and Midwest; immigrants from
Latin America, Haiti and elsewhere and a large number of Jewish voters. Retirees flock here and
the state has a lot of veterans, many of whom stay after serving in the state.347 Of the 18 million
people in Florida, 20 percent are Hispanic, 16 percent are black and 17 percent are older than
65.348
Urban South Florida favors Democrats, largely rural north Florida identifies more with the South
and votes conservative and the Interstate 4 corridor that splits the state from Tampa through
Orlando to Daytona Beach is where both parties fight aggressively for independents and
crossover voters.349
The housing market collapse in the state and other economic worries have hurt McCain in the
polls and have forced McCain's campaign to devote precious candidate time and dwindling
resources here in the final days of the campaign, at a time when McCain is facing pressure to
shore up his position in other states Bush won in 2004.350
In 2004, the state's economy was still soaring. Unemployment was low, the housing market hot.
Jeb Bush, the president's brother, was the state's popular governor and Republicans were
winning the argument with Florida voters on national security and Iraq.
This fall, the economy dominates the election. Florida's unemployment is higher than the national
average and the highest it's been in more than 13 years. The state has one of the worst
foreclosure rates in the nation.351
In a state that leads much of the nation in jobs lost, Central Florida has been hit hard. In the fastgrowing Hispanic communities around Orlando, residents are bearing the brunt of a deflated
tourism industry.
The so-called I-4 corridor, the communities along a ribbon of highway, Interstate 4, running from
Tampa on the Gulf Coast through Orlando to Daytona Beach on the Atlantic coast, is the truly
swing-voting region.
Many disparate communities cluster along Interstate 4, the Central Florida highway considered a
gateway to one-tenth of the electoral votes needed to win the White House. Nearly one out of five
of the state's unaffiliated voters live in this swath between Tampa and Daytona Beach, and an
even higher percentage are considered ''persuadable'' Democrats and Republicans.
125
''Someone suggested to me that the whole thing could come down to a couple square blocks in
downtown Tampa, and that's not out of the question,'' said Richard Scher, a University of Florida
professor, who calculated that the 12 counties hugging I-4 host 38 percent of the state's
independent voters.
McCain is expected to dominate the northern part of the state and the Obama is expected to
carry the more liberal southern end, leaving the state's heterogeneous midsection up for grabs.
''I-4 is a little bit of South Florida, a little bit of North Florida, a little bit of Yankee transplants, and
a little bit of old South rednecks,'' said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. ``It may be the best
microcosm of Florida.''
Complicating their decisions, many central Florida residents don't feel the straight-ticket voting
loyalties common in South Florida, where most Jewish and black voters are diehard Democrats
and most Cuban Americans are staunch Republicans.
A disproportionate amount of the candidate’s spending has gone to Central Florida markets.
352
Obama has heavily outspent McCain in Central Florida, but the GOP chairs of some counties
along the critical Interstate 4 corridor, including Pinellas, home to St. Petersburg, say their troops
are fired up and have all the resources they need.353 McCain has recently campaigned down the
Interstate 4 corridor, campaigning in Orlando, Altamonte Springs, Ormond Beach, and Plant
City.354
One of the state's more critical battlegrounds is the Tampa Bay area, a swing-voter mecca where
Obama has relentlessly focused attention and many polls have shown McCain lagging. "The
Tampa Bay area is the anchor of the I-4 corridor, and you don't win Florida unless you win Tampa
Bay," said Al Austin, a Republican fundraiser in Tampa. John Kerry won just 46 percent of the
vote in the Tampa Bay region in 2004.
Local Republicans are confident about their grass roots campaign in this region, home to a
quarter of the Florida electorate, but warning signs abound.355
President Bush won Hillsborough County in 2000 and 2004, as he carried the state each time.
But Obama is competitive, or leading in many polls, in the county this cycle.356
In Sarasota County, the longtime GOP stronghold that Bush won by 13 points four years ago,
some recent Republican polls showed McCain tied or slightly behind Obama.357
Miami-Dade County, where Hispanics are the majority, is home to many Cuban-Americans, a
potent voting bloc.
South Florida's Cuban community, a solidly Republican voting bloc for a generation, is showing
signs of cracking, recent voter-registration figures indicate. That suggests Republican candidates
may not find the region as reliable this year, or in the future.
New South Florida Latino voters have been registering as Democrats rather than Republicans.
Obama has a strong get-out-the-vote operation ready in Miami and is advertising heavily in
Spanish.
While local Latino Democrats are seeing inroads in Miami, most political observers say Obama is
unlikely to win Little Havana. McCain holds the edge in most polls, though his support has
withered somewhat in recent months. Obama's cause probably wasn't helped in May when
longtime dictator Fidel Castro wrote in government-run newspapers that he was "the mostadvanced candidate in the presidential race."358
126
Yet there is a different "state" in southeast Florida that includes the legions of Democrats in
Miami-Dade, along with neighboring Broward and Palm Beach Counties. Palm Beach, Broward
County and the Miami area are not only home to Cuban immigrants, but also many Northeastern
transplants and retirees.
Winning the minds of Florida's Jewish community, which could account for 6 percent to 8 percent
of the vote in this critical state, is crucial in a close contest. McCain and his allies are attempting
to break the 80-percent lock that Democrats hold on this vote, largely by challenging Obama's
allegiance to Israel and his judgment on negotiating with its worst enemies.
Florida has more than 10.5 million voters, and the McCain campaign allows that the 650,000
members of a Jewish community who traditionally vote Democratic will not move en masse to the
GOP nominee. But in a state where polls portray a close contest, every vote counts.
Sen. Lieberman has campaigned for McCain in the state.
359
Northeast Florida, anchored by Jacksonville, is Republican territory. A significant military
presence centers on the Mayport Naval Air Station, one of a band of military bases stretching
across northern Florida. The retirees who have settled around these bases are a significant
Republican constituency.360 An uptick in black registration and turnout could significantly help
Obama outperform Gore and Kerry in Northeast Florida.
As the rest of Florida grew, the Panhandle's influence has waned. Yet the Panhandle, which has
only 8 percent of the state's population, still fiercely holds on to its political heritage, claiming
three state House speakers since 1993, including Rep. Ray Sansom, R-Destin, who will become
the new House leader in November.
Democrats outnumber Republicans in the region. But many of them are very conservative voters,
favoring local Democrats for county commissioners and sheriffs but preferring Republicans in
statewide and national races.
Democratic presidential candidates, like Obama, generally do not run well in the Panhandle
outside of the Democrat-leaning Tallahassee area.In 2004, John Kerry won only three of the 16
Panhandle counties that stretch from Jefferson County, east of Tallahassee, to Escambia,
Florida's most western county.
A number of factors tilt the Panhandle toward more conservative candidates in national elections.
The region has a half-dozen military bases -- including the Naval Air Station at Pensacola and
Eglin Air Force Base near Fort Walton Beach -- and a large population of former veterans.
The Panhandle residents more often than not reflect stronger "Old South" values than the rest of
the state. Here sentiments run strong for religion, gun rights and anti-abortion efforts.361
Florida was the laughingstock of the nation during the 2000 presidential election, when a
contentious, 36-day recount resulted in George Bush winning the state (and, therefore, the White
House) by 537 votes over Al Gore.362
About 2.5 million more voters are expected than in 2000. And with 376,000 new voters registering
between Sept. 8 and Oct. 6 alone (there were only about 504,000 new registrations in all of
2007), there will be long lines at the polls and other pitfalls, despite the early voting.363
127
Initiative/ Constitutional Amendment
Amendment 2. Marriage. Defines marriage as solely between one man and one woman.
This amendment protects marriage as the legal union of only one man and one woman as
husband and wife and provides that no other legal union that is treated as marriage or the
substantial equivalent thereof shall be valid or recognized. The direct financial impact this
amendment will have on state and local government revenues and expenditures cannot be
determined, but is expected to be minor. (Yes, No)
th
Florida 8 District
Ric Keller (R) Incumbent
Born: 09/05/1964, Johnson City, TN
Home: Orlando
Education: BS East Tennessee State University, 1986; JD Vanderbilt University, 1992
Religion: Methodist
Marital Status: Married (Dee Dee)
Professional Experience: Attorney
He was born in Tennessee but grew up mostly in Orlando, in a one-bedroom house with his
brother, sister, mother and grandmother.
With financial help from Pell grants, he graduated first in his class at East Tennessee State
University, then graduated from Vanderbilt law school.
In 1992 he moved to Orlando and practiced law and quickly earned conservative credentials. His
firm served as general counsel to a business coalition that won passage of changes in tort law in
the Florida legislature.
When Congressman Bill McCollum decided to run for the Senate in 2000, Keller ran for the
House.364
Keller was elected to Congress in 2000 in his first bid for public office when he defeated
Democrat Linda Chapin with 51% of the vote.
Keller is a member of the Judiciary Committee.
In 2005 Keller won House passage for a bill that would make it a federal crime to aim laser
pointers at aircraft.
Keller sponsored the Keller Amendment, that links airline passenger manifests to the FBI's
Terrorist Watch List and lets airlines check if passengers are listed.365
128
Alan Grayson (D)
Born: 03/13/1958, New York, NY
Home: Orlando
Education: BA Harvard University, 1978; JD Harvard University, 1983; MPP Harvard University,
1983
Marital Status: Married (Lolita)
Professional Experience: Attorney, Investor
Alan Grayson was born in New York, N.Y., and lives in Orlando.
Grayson later started IDT Corp., a telephone services company that he sold and used his
earnings to invest in several other small companies.
He is also a partner in Grayson & Kubli, an Orlando law firm representing more than 300 clients.
Grayson is a multi-millionaire.
Grayson has made a name for himself by filing whistle blower lawsuits against Iraqi War
contractors.
He helped win the first civil verdict for Iraq reconstruction fraud when he sued Custer Battles in
2004. A jury awarded a $10 million judgment against the company.
Grayson is known for having a brash confidence.
Grayson finished a distant second to Charlie Stuart in the Democratic primary for the same seat
in 2006.366
The Race:
Democrats and Republicans alike viewed Keller’s narrow August primary win as a sign of the
four-term incumbent’s vulnerability.
Democratic nominee Alan Grayson, an attorney, began receiving national support at that point,
although his personal wealth is likely to keep his campaign afloat until Election Day regardless of
outside assistance.
Grayson has now moved to front-runner status in part because an influx of Hispanic residents has
altered the demographics of the Orlando-area district, which no longer has a Republican voter
registration advantage.367
National Democratic Party officials regard the 8th District contest as one of their top takeover
opportunities.
Grayson is running in a central Florida district where demographic changes have helped the
Democrats wipe out a longstanding Republican voter registration advantage.
Keller fended off a vigorous Democratic challenge in 2006 by a 7 percentage-point margin.
Keller won this year’s Republican primary with a narrow victory. It is unlikely that those who
supported his opponent would cross over and vote for Grayson.
Keller, who received the endorsement of the Orlando Sentinel, has run ads portraying Grayson as
an “ultra-liberal.”368
129
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Ric Keller (R)
95,258
53%
$1,691,408
Charlie Stuart (D)
82,526
46%
$998,271
2,660
1%
Ric Keller (R)
30,707
72%
Elizabeth Doran (R)
11,661
28%
Ric Keller (R)
172,232
61%
$292,257
Stephen Murray (D)
112,343
39%
$62,420
Other
2006 primary
2004 general
2002 (65%); 2000 (51%)
Florida 13th District
Vernon Buchanan (R) Incumbent
Born: 05/08/1951, Inkster, MI
Home: Sarasota
Education: BBA Cleary University, 1975; MBA University of Detroit, 1986
Religion: Christian
Marital Status: Married (Sandy)
Professional Career: Business Owner; Military: MIANG, 1970-76
Vernon Gale Buchanan was born in Detroit, Mich., and lives in Sarasota. He has a bachelor's
degree in business administration from Cleary University in Ann Arbor, Mich., and an MBA from
Detroit University.
Buchanan is an auto dealer and self-made millionaire.
He has served as chairman of the Sarasota Chamber of Commerce and chairman of the Florida
Chamber of Commerce.
He currently serves on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Board of Directors.
Vern Buchanan spent $2 million of his supposed $50 million fortune to win a five-way Republican
primary, even before embarking on a general election campaign.
He and his wife, Sandy, have two children.369
Christine Jennings (D)
Born: 11/26/1945, New Boston, OH
Home: Sarasota
Education: HS Diploma
Religion: Christian
Marital Status: Divorced
Professional Career: Businesswoman
Christine Jennings was born in New Boston, Ohio, and currently resides in Sarasota. She
graduated from Glenwood High School and worked in banking for over 40 years, becoming
founder and president of the Sarasota Bank.
130
This is Jennings' third run for office. Apart from her work in banking, Jennings has been president
of numerous Sarasota community organizations and served on the board of others.
Jennings wants to bring tax relief to the middle class, expand access to affordable, high quality
health care and supports a phased withdrawal of the troops from Iraq.
Jennings is single.370
Race Notes:
Buchanan will face Democrat Christine Jennings in a rematch of their extremely close 2006
contest to succeed Katherine Harris (R) in the House. It took Jennings a long time to concede
defeat, hoping to portray this as a Bush-Gore-like Florida snafu. But some voters feel she kept
the fight going well after it was clear the result wasn't going to change.371
The freshman faces criticism for multiple lawsuits involving his car dealership, but he still holds an
edge in his rematch against Jennings.
The former bank president made national headlines when she argued her 369-vote loss last time
was the result of voting machine errors, although a House investigation concluded this year that
was not the case.
The Gulf Coast district leans Republican, and Buchanan holds the advantage of incumbency this
time around.
The challenger’s campaign is further complicated by the independent candidacy of lawyer Jan
Schneider, who was the district’s Democratic nominee in 2002 and 2004.372
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
2006 primary
2004 general
Total Votes
Vern Buchanan (R)
119,309
50%
$8,112,752
Christine Jennings
(D)
118,940
50%
$3,002,798
Vern Buchanan (R)
20,918
32%
Nancy Detert (R)
15,804
24%
Tramm Hudson (R)
15,535
24%
Mark Flanagan (R)
6,465
10%
Donna Clarke (R)
5,972
9%
Katherine Harris (R)
190,477
55%
$3,556,976
Jan Schneider (D)
153,961
45%
$655,790
131
Timothy Mahoney (D)
Born: 08/16/1956, Aurora, IL
Home: Palm Beach Gardens
Education: BA West Virginia University 1978; MBA George Washington University, 1983
Religion: Methodist
Marital Status: Married (Terry)
Professional Career: Business Owner
Timothy Edward Mahoney, born in Aurora, Ill., and lives in Palm Beach Gardens. He earned an
undergraduate degree from West Virginia University and an MBA from George Washington
University.
He founded vFinance Inc., a firm that provides finance services in the retail brokerage,
investment banking and institutional service businesses.
As a freshman congressman, Mahoney says he is an "independent voice" in Washington who
works across party lines. He has helped pass bipartisan legislation on congressional ethics
reform and to change House rules to prohibit lobbyist-funded gifts, meals, and trips
Mahoney and his wife, Terry, have one child.373
Tom Rooney (R)
Born: 11/21/1970, Philadelphia, PA
Home: Tequesta
Education: BA Washington & Jefferson College; MA University of Florida; JD University of Miami
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Tara)
Tom Rooney was born in Philadelphia, Penn., and lives in Tequesta.
He received a bachelor's degree in English literature from Washington and Jefferson College, a
master's in political science from the University of Florida and a law degree from the University of
Miami.
He currently practices law in Stuart.
His family owns the Pittsburgh Steelers and a Palm Beach County dog track.
Rooney was a commissioned officer in the U.S. Army Junge Advocate General Corps at Fort
Hood and served as assistant U.S. attorney on the base. He later became an instructor at the
U.S. Military Academy at West Point. After leaving the Army, Rooney served as an assistant
attorney general under then state attorney general, now Gov. Charlie Crist.
Rooney and his wife, Tara, have three children.374
Race Notes:
Mahoney was headed for a difficult campaign for a second term even before he admitted this
month to a series of extramarital affairs — while denying he broke any laws in his dealings with
one of the women, who worked for both his congressional and campaign offices.
Republicans had long argued that Mahoney’s 2006 win was a fluke (he benefited when the
previous incumbent, Republican Mark Foley, had his own sex scandal) and that this year the
132
sprawling south-central district’s Republican lean would be re-asserted. And by now their
375
nominee, attorney Tom Rooney, is the clear front-runner.
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Tim Mahoney (D)
115,832
50%
$2,783,045
Joe Negron (R)
111,415
48%
$814,562
6,526
3%
Other
2006 primary
Tim Mahoney (D)
Unopposed
2004 general
Mark Foley (R)
215,563
68%
Jeff Fisher (D)
101,247
32%
$1,839,746
Florida 21st District
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) Incumbent.
Born: 08/13/1954, Havana, Cuba
Home: Miami
Education: BA New College of the University of South Florida, 1976; JD Case Western Reserve
University, 1979
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Cristina)
Elected Office: FL House, 1986-89; FL Senate, 1990-92
Lincoln R. Diaz-Balart was born in Havana, Cuba, and lives in Miami. His family fled Cuba for
South Florida in 1960.
Diaz-Balart received a bachelor's degree in international relations from New College in Sarasota,
Fla., in 1976 and a law degree from Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland in 1979, then
practiced law.
The Diaz-Balart family was very well connected to Cuba's government before the communist
revolution. Diaz-Balart's father, Rafael L. Diaz-Balart, served as majority leader of the Cuban
House of Representatives from 1954 to 1958, and was elected to the Cuban Senate in 1958.
Rafael L. Diaz-Balart later served as the Economic and Commercial Advisor to the president of
Costa Rica. Lincoln Diaz-Balart's grandfather was elected to the Cuban House of
Representatives in 1936. An aunt, Mirta Diaz-Balart, was Cuban leader Fidel Castro's first wife.
His brother, Mario Diaz-Balart, also is a member of Congress from Florida.
When Castro came to power, Diaz-Balart's family fled to South Florida. There, Diaz-Balart and
brother Mario, both Miami Republicans, continued the family's political legacy by serving together
in the Florida Legislature.
Lincoln Diaz-Balart served in the Florida Senate from 1989 to 1992.
The brother act ended in Tallahassee after Lincoln Diaz-Balart was elected to Congress in 1992
in the newly created 21st District. It found a revival in 2003 when Mario Diaz-Balart was sworn in
from another new district, the 25th.
Lincoln Diaz-Balart's career largely has been defined by one issue -- opposition to Cuba's Fidel
Castro -- important to his Miami-area district and to the seven-term representative. But as his
133
anti-Castro positions find fading support nationally, his solidly Republican district remains
steadfast in its opposition to the communist regime in Cuba.
He and his wife, Cristina, have two sons.376
Raul Martinez (D)
Born: 03/06/1949, Santiago, Cuba
Home: Hialeah
Education: BS Florida International University
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Angela)
Elected Office: Hialeah City Council, 1977-81; Mayor of Hialeah City, 1981-2005
Professional Experience: Public Official
Raul Martinez was born in Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, and now resides in the Miami suburb of
Hialeah. He earned a bachelor's degree in criminal justice at Florida International University in
1977.
Martinez is a long-time Democratic political figure in South Florida, especially in his heavily
Cuban-American and Republican hometown, Hialeah. He served in city government there for
nearly 30 years.
Martinez's political career began in 1977 when he was elected to the Hialeah City Council.
He was elected Hialeah's mayor in 1981 and served until 2005 when he decided not to run for
another term.
Federal officials prosecuted him on corruption charges in the 1980s, but the case was later
dropped.
He helped Sen. John Kerry's presidential campaign in 2004.377
This is Raul Martinez's first run for Congress.
He did not have a primary opponent.378
Martinez and his wife, Angela, have two children.379
The Race:
South Florida Cuban-Americans have been reliably Republican for years, but Democrats hope to
change that with Martinez, who is also from Cuba.380
As former mayor of the district’s largest city, Hialeah, Democrat Raul Martinez threatens to
directly cut into the base of support Diaz-Balart has enjoyed for eight terms representing the
middle class and Cuban-American suburbs of Miami.
Diaz-Balart has long appealed there by emphasizing his hard-line opposition to the Castro
regime. But Democrats argue Martinez, who is also Cuban-American, will win with support from
voters focused on the economy, the Iraq War and other issues.
Republicans have publicized Martinez’s past baggage, including corruption charges, which were
later dropped, and the national party has stepped in to defend this GOP-leaning seat.381
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report calls the 21st district race as ''easily one of the nastiest
races in the country.''382
134
Observers had predicted a bare-knuckles fight between the former mayor Martinez and DiazBalart.
Observers expected the race to be a referendum on whether younger Cuban-American voters are
more interested in domestic issues than Cuba.
Diaz-Balart's campaign defends the attack ads against Martinez as addressing a critical factor:
383
integrity.
Diaz-Balart has represented the district for six years and is part of a well-known political brand.
Garcia might be within striking distance, as he got a boost when Speaker of the House Nancy
384
Pelosi campaigned for him and other Democrats in Little Havana.
The two candidates also differ on the $700 billion financial bailout for Wall Street. Garcia said he
would have held his nose and voted for it, and Diaz-Balart voted against it twice.
The right of Cuban exiles to travel to Cuba and send remittances is another issue where the
candidates differ. Garcia would lift restrictions on remittances and travel, and Diaz-Balart would
keep them. 385
Election Results
Candidate
2006
general
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
Lincoln DiazBalart (R)
66,784
59%
$926,106
Frank Gonzalez
(D)
45,522
41%
$16,598
$451,555
2006
primary
Unopposed
2004
general
146,507
73%
54,736
27%
Frank Gonzalez
(Lib)
2002 (100%); 2000 (100%); 1998 (75%);
1996 (100%); 1994 (100%); 1992 (100%)
Tom Feeney (R) Incumbent
Born: 05/21/1958, Abington, PA
Home: Oviedo
Education: BA Penn State University, 1980; JD University of Pittsburgh, 1983
Marital Status: Married (Ellen Stewart)
Elected Office: FL House, 1990-94, 1996-2002
Tom Feeney was born Thomas Charles Feeney III in Abington, Pa. He lives in Oviedo, Fla.
Feeney has a Bachelor of Arts degree from Pennsylvania State University and a law degree from
the University of Pittsburgh. He practices real estate and business law in Orlando.
135
Feeney was elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 1990 and resigned to run for
lieutenant governor on the Republican gubernatorial ticket headed by Jeb Bush, but they lost to
Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles and Lt. Gov. Buddy MacKay.
Feeney was elected to the Florida House again in 1996 and served as speaker for a two-year
term in 2000-02. Feeney served on the board of the Tallahassee-based James Madison Institute
and later became director of the conservative research and education organization.
He was elected to Congress in 2002.
Feeney's brief congressional career has been an adventure. He has tested the limits of ethics
rules and managed to irk the late Chief Justice William Rehnquist, President Bush and GOP
congressional leaders.
Although not accused of illegal activity, Feeney, who contributed $5,000 to Tom DeLay's legal
defense fund, returned a contribution to convicted lobbyist Tony Rudy, a former DeLay staffer
who pleaded guilty to conspiracy. Feeney contributed $1,000 he received from another convicted
lobbyist, Jack Abramoff, to charity.
Feeney also has defended an Abramoff-funded golfing trip to Scotland and a South Korean trip
paid for by a registered foreign agent. He also defended a campaign contribution from a political
action committee formed by former Rep. Randy Cunningham, R-Calif., who pleaded guilty to
accepting bribes and resigned from Congress.
He lives in Oviedo, Fla., with his wife, Ellen Stewart. They have two children.386
Suzanne Kosmas (D)
Born: 02/25/1944, Washington, DC
Home: New Smyrna Beach
Education: BA Stetson Univ., 1998
Religion: Methodist
Marital Status: Divorced
Elected Office: FL House, 1996-present
Professional Experience: Realtor, Small Business Owner
Suzanne Kosmas was born in Washington, D.C. She moved to Florida in 1973 after successfully
fighting cancer in her 20s.
Kosmas is the owner of Prestige Properties, a New Smyrna Beach real estate company. She has
been active in many organizations in the Volusia County area, including United Way, Habitat for
Humanity and the Boys & Girls Club.
She served on the Volusia County Planning and Zoning Board before being elected to the state
House in 1996. She served four terms before leaving office in 2004 due to term limits.
During her time in the Legislature, Kosmas focused on children's health, elderly and business
issues. She served as the Democratic Caucus chair.
While serving in the House, Kosmas earned a bachelor's degree from Stetson University in 1998
at the age of 54. She had attended university earlier in life, but left school to focus on her family.
She recently went to Guatemala with a church mission team to help build a pre-school and
helped organize a Habitat for Humanity "Women Build" program to construct housing for single
mothers.
Kosmas, who is divorced, has four children and nine grandchildren.
387
136
The Race:
Democratic former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas’ attacks on Feeney’s ethical record during his
three terms have gained potentially decisive traction in the Republican-leaning district centered in
the Orlando suburbs.
After months of criticism, Feeney recently issued an apology for his past association with
convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Feeney established a legal defense fund last year but has not
been charged with wrongdoing.
Democrats believe Kosmas’ assistance from the national party and EMILY’s List have her very
388
well-positioned to thrive in the campaign’s final push.
The 24th Congressional District of Florida has about half its population in the Orlando area, much
389
of it in affluent Orange and Seminole County suburbs north and northeast of Orlando.
Kosmas has criticized Feeney’s votes against expanding a health insurance program for children,
390
an increase in the federal minimum wage and a $50 billion global AIDS program.
Kosmas now appears to hold an edge in their race in Florida’s 24th District.391
In 2004, President Bush was took 56 % of the votes in the 24th District.392
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Tom Feeney (R)
123,795
58%
$1,571,417
89,863
42%
$84,804
Clint Curtis (D)
2006 primary
Tom Feeney (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Tom Feeney (R)
Unopposed
$705,578
2002 (62%)
Mario Diaz-Balart (R) Incumbent
Born: 09/25/1961, Ft. Lauderdale
Home: Miami
Education: Attended University of South Florida
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Tia)
Elected Office: FL House, 1988-92, 2000-02; FL Senate, 1992-2000
Mario Diaz-Balart’s father, Rafael Lincoln Diaz-Balart, served as majority leader in pre-revolution
Cuba’s House of Representatives. His uncle and grandfather also served in the Cuban House.
His aunt was once married to Fidel Castro.
He comes from a prominent family sometimes called “the Cuban Kennedys,” which seems to
have politics in its blood.
One of his three older brothers is Lincoln Diaz-Balart, congressman from the 21st District just to
the east. Mario Diaz-Balart, unlike Lincoln, was born in the United States after his family fled
Cuba.
137
He dropped out of the University of South Florida at 24 to work for former Miami Mayor Xavier
Suarez and was elected in 1988 to the Florida House.
In 1992, at 31, he became the youngest person ever elected to the Florida Senate.
Soon after that, Diaz-Balart was named chairman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee,
where he was a budget hawk.
The eight-year term limit forced him from the state Senate in 2000, so he again ran for the Florida
House and was elected. Diaz-Balart was first elected in 2002.393
Joe Garcia (D)
Born: 10/12/1963, Miami, FL
Home: Miami
Education: BA University of Miami, 1986; JD University of Miami
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Aileen)
Garcia is the oldest of three sons born to Carmen and Jose Garcia, high-school sweethearts
briefly separated by Fidel Castro's climb to power. Jose Sr. -- the candidate's first name is Jose -came to Miami in 1961, Carmen followed and the couple settled in Little Havana. Jose Sr. started
out washing cars and later began a career in banking.
Garcia attended Miami Dade College and then UM, where he was voted student body president
in 1986. He entered law school at UM, where he met his wife, Aileen, now UM's general counsel.
The couple has a daughter, Gabriela, 10.
In 1988, as a law student, Garcia was picked to head the Exodus Project of the Cuban American
National Foundation, a program that brought Cuban exiles stranded in third countries to the U.S.
Garcia remained with the foundation for the next decade.
A spot opened on the Florida Public Service Commission in 1994 and Garcia applied to join the
board that regulates utilities and sets electric and telephone rates. By 1999, Garcia was heading
the commission.
He returned to CANF in 2000 as its executive director and led the organization in a new direction
on bringing political change to Cuba, causing a rift within the group. Older members left in protest.
Garcia left the foundation in 2004.
In 2006, Garcia became chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party. An independent until
2001, Garcia said he joined the Democrats soon after George W. Bush's election.
Now, he wants to represent the district that stretches from Miami-Dade into Monroe and Collier
counties.394
Race Notes:
Democrat Joe Garcia, former executive director of the Cuban-American National Foundation and
local party leader, has amassed national support in his bid to oust the three-term incumbent from
the GOP-leaning seat, which stretches from the western edges of Miami-Dade across South
Florida.
Garcia and Democrats argue that Diaz-Balart’s strong focus on relations with Cuba is no longer
the highest priority for voters in a district with a growing non-Cuban population. But Diaz-Balart
395
maintains a strong relationship with many voters and holds the advantage of incumbency.
138
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
Mario Diaz-Balart
(R)
60,765
58%
$697,936
Michael Calderin
(D)
43,168
42%
$35,161
2006 primary
Mario Diaz-Balart
(R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Mario Diaz-Balart
(R)
Unopposed
2006 general
$322,024
2002 (65%)
139
140
Illinois
Electoral Votes:
21
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
2,891,550
54.82%
Bush
2,345,946
44.48%
Other
36,826
0.70%
545,604
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
44.48%
54.82%
2000
42.58%
54.60%
1996
36.81%
54.32%
1992
34.34%
48.58%
1988
50.69%
48.60%
1984
56.17%
43.30%
1980
49.65%
41.72%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Obama
64.7%
Clinton
32.8%
Edwards
1.9%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
McCain
47.5%
Romney
28.6%
Huckabee
16.5%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Rod R. Blagojevich (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
11
8
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
37
22
0
State House
67
51
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
7,390,000
As Of
9/29/2008
VEP 2008
9,007,989
VEP Turnout 2004
60.73%
12,852,548
Total population
5
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
1,548,781
12.1%
65 years and over
8,352,822
65.0%
Non-Hispanic White
1,926,515
15.0%
Black
549,043
4.3%
Asian
1,919,690
14.9%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Chicago
2,836,658
Aurora
170,855
Rockford
156,596
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
6.9%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$54,124
U.S.
$50,740
141
ILLINOIS – U.S. Senate Race
Richard Durbin (D) Incumbent
Born: 11-21-1944, E. St. Louis
Home: Springfield
Education: Georgetown U., B.S. 1966, J.D. 1969
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: married (Loretta)
Elected Office: U.S. House of Reps., 1982–96
Professional Career: Staff, Lt. Gov. Paul Simon, 1969–72; Legal Cnsl., IL Sen. Judiciary Cmte.,
1972–82; Prof., S. IL Schl. of Medicine, 1978–82.
Sen. Durbin is seeking a third term.
Richard "Dick" Joseph Durbin was born and raised in East St. Louis, Ill., and resides in
Springfield.
Durbin received a bachelor's degree in foreign service and economics in 1966 and a law degree
in 1969 from Georgetown University. While at Georgetown, Durbin interned on the staff of his
boyhood hero, Illinois Sen. Paul Douglas. But Douglas lost in 1966 to one of his own former
students, Republican Charles H. Percy.
Durbin latched on with newly elected then-Lt. Gov. Paul Simon, another Douglas disciple. But his
hopes were dashed when Simon lost the 1972 Democratic nomination for governor to Dan
Walker in one of the state's most startling upsets.
Durbin ran unsuccessfully for state Senate in 1976 and lieutenant governor in 1978. He served as
the parliamentarian of the Illinois Senate, 1969-82, and as legal counsel to Lt. Gov. Paul Simon,
1969-73.
He was elected to the U.S. House in 1982, serving until he was elected to the U.S. Senate in
1996. He was re-elected in 2002.
In November 2004, he was chosen to replace Nevada Sen. Harry Reid as the party whip, the
Democrat's second-ranking Senate leader.
Before his elevation to party whip, Durbin had been the Senate Democrats' assistant floor
manager, the first Illinoisan on the Appropriations Committee in a quarter-century and a go-to guy
even for Republicans in the Illinois congressional delegation.
Durbin and his wife, Loretta Schaefer, have three children.396
142
Dr. Steven Sauerberg (R)
Born: April 3, 1953 Berwyn, Ill
Home: Willowbrook, Ill.
Religion: Christian
Marital Status: married (Nancy)
Education: BS (Chemistry), MacMurray College; MD (Medicine), Rush Medical College
Professional Career: Family Physician
Steven Kenneth Sauerberg was born in the Chicago suburb of Berwyn,
He currently resides in the Chicago suburb of Willowbrook. Sauerberg has operated his family
practice since 1985.
He opened the practice in Chicago's western suburbs after four years teaching family medicine.
Sauerberg earned his medical degree from Rush Medical College in Chicago and he holds a
bachelor's degree in chemistry from MacMurray College in Jacksonville, Ill.
Dr. Sauerberg is a family physician making his first run for office.
The little-known doctor says he's not concerned about taking on the well-known Durbin.
He and his wife Nancy have two adult children.397
Race Notes:
The expanded Democratic Senate majority that will convene the 111th Congress next January
will include Durbin, the No. 2-ranking Majority Whip who’s a lock for a third term against
Republican physician Steve Sauerberg.
Durbin wouldn’t have been seriously challenged even if Barack Obama, his junior home-state
colleague in the Senate, was not heading the ballot as the presidential nominee.398
Durbin, who’s said to be eyeing Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) job whenever it becomes
vacant, is expected to coast to a third term.
Sauerberg’s self-funded candidacy failed to launch in the heavily Democratic state.
Land of Lincoln voters are expected to turn out in droves for home-state presidential nominee
Obama, likely adding to Durbin’s vote cushion, which was 22 points in his 2002 matchup with
state Rep. Jim Durkin (R).399
Ambitious Republicans have been running for various statewide offices for the past few years
with little success, and the result shouldn’t be any different this year.400
It would be difficult to defeat Durbin in the best of circumstances. In a presidential year, it will be
virtually impossible.401
Analysis by
Illinois
Race Rating
Solid D
Safe Democratic
Safe Democrat
Currently Safe
143
Election Results
Candidate
2002
general
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
Richard Durbin
(D)
2,103,766
60%
$4,979,865
Jim Durkin (R)
1,325,703
38%
$794,634
57,382
2%
Other
2002
primary
Richard Durbin
(D)
Unopposed
1996
general
Richard Durbin
(D)
2,384,028
56%
$4,966,804
Al Salvi (R)
1,728,824
41%
$4,696,065
137,870
3%
Other
Prior winning
percentages:
1994 House (55%); 1992 House (57%);
1990 House (66%); 1988 House (69%);
1986 House (68%); 1984 House (61%);
1982 House (50%)
Illinois 10th District
Mark Kirk (R) Incumbent
Born: 09/15/1959, Champaign, IL
Home: Highland Park
Education: BA Cornell University, 1981; MS London School of Economics, 1982; JD Georgetown
University, 1992
Religion: Congregationalist
Marital Status: Married (Kimberly)
Professional Career: Attorney; Military: USNR, 1989-present
Mark Steven Kirk was born in Champagne, IL and currently resides in the Chicago suburb of
Highland Park.
He has a bachelor's degree from Cornell University, a master's degree from the London School of
Economics and a law degree from Georgetown University.
Kirk has been all over the world. A Naval Reserve officer, Kirk has served in Iraq, Haiti, Bosnia
and Panama and done tours of duty at sea, according to his Web site. Kirk has worked at the
World Bank, as U.S. State Department aide and at a top Chicago law firm. He also has been the
counsel to a U.S. House International Relations Committee.
Kirk got to Congress in 2000 when he won the open seat of his popular predecessor, GOP U.S.
Rep. John Porter. Kirk had been Porter's chief of staff years earlier.
The 2002 redistricting tilted the district to the right, but Kirk was re-elected that year with 68
percent of the vote. Still, Kirk has seen his margin of victory is narrow. He held onto the seat in
2006, but only after winning a surprisingly close election.
In Congress, Kirk is co-chairman for the Tuesday Group, the caucus of mainstream Republicans.
Kirk serves on the Appropriations Committee.
144
Kirk is married to Kimberly Kirk.402
Daniel Seals (D)
Born: 06/09/1971, Chicago
Home: Wilmette
Education: BA Boston University; MPP Johns Hopkins Univ.; MBA Univ. of Chicago
Marital Status: Married (Mia)
Professional Career: Marketing Director
Daniel Joseph Seals was born in Chicago and raised in Hyde Park. He is a journalism graduate
from Boston University and one of his first jobs was teaching English to high school students in
Japan, a life experience he touts on his campaign Web site.
Seals eventually returned to the United States and got a master's degree in international
economics and Japan studies from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
He went on to be a presidential management fellow in the Clinton administration before coming
home to Illinois and earning an MBA at the University of Chicago.
During his career, Seals has worked as marketing director for a commercial financial services
company and in marketing for a telecommunications company.
This is Seals' second attempt at unseating Kirk in a northern Illinois district that has trended more
Democratic. A political unknown when he ran in 2006, Seals lost to Kirk in a surprisingly close
race.
Seals and wife, Mia, live in the Chicago suburb of Wilmette. The couple has three daughters.403
Race Notes:
Democrats feel that Obama's coattails will help Dan Seals, an African-American, in his rematch
with Kirk, who got 53 percent of the vote two years ago.404
Kirk is one of just eight House Republicans who represent districts that voted Democratic for
president in 2004. And there’s no doubt that the territory, a collection of comfortable suburbs
north of Chicago, will vote for favorite son Obama this time.
And so Kirk is working harder than ever to tout his centrist record in an effort to create enough
ticket-splitters that he secures a fifth term.
His Democratic opponent is once again Seals, a former marketing director who came within
14,000 votes two years ago and is now focused on labeling the incumbent as more party-line
than he’s letting on.
This district, which falls in the pricey Chicago media market, is hosting one of the nation’s most
expensive House races: As October began, Kirk and Seals had combined to raise $7.5 million,
with the incumbent accounting for $4.7 million of the total.405
145
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Mark Kirk (R)
107,929
53%
$3,512,971
Dan Seals (D)
94,278
47%
$1,882,795
2006 primary
Mark Kirk (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Mark Kirk (R)
177,493
64%
$1,653,529
99,218
36%
$88,520
Lee Goodman (D)
2002 (69%); 2000 (51%)
th
Illinois 11 district
Debbie Halvorson (D)
Born: 03/01/1958, Chicago Heights, IL
Home: Crete
Education: AA Prairie State College, 1998; BA Governors State University; MA Governors State
University
Religion: Lutheran
Marital Status: Married (Jim)
Elected Office: Ill State Sen Dist 40 (1997- )Majority Leader currently Ill State Senate.
Professional Career: Public Official, Crete Twp. Clerk, 1993-96.
Deborah "Debbie" DeFrancesco Halvorson was born in Chicago Heights and raised in Steger,
Ill.406
Halvorson's includes 14 years as a small businesswoman and three years as the Crete Township
Clerk.407
Halvorson is a former cosmetic saleswoman who now holds a powerful post in the Illinois General
Assembly as Senate majority leader, the top lieutenant to the state Senate president.408
Halvorson is the first woman elected to Majority Leader in Illinois history.409
Halvorson first was elected to the Illinois Senate in 1996 while serving as Crete Township Clerk in
the far south Chicago suburbs.
Halvorson holds three college degrees - an associate's from Prairie State College and bachelor's
and master's degrees from Governor's State University.
Debbie Halvorson won an uncontested Democratic primary in 2008.410
Halvorson is the only 11th district candidate with a record in politics.411
She and her husband, Jim Bush, live in Crete, Ill. They have four children and grandchildren.412
Debbie Halvorson's stepson, an Army Special Operations soldier in Afghanistan, has seriously
injured his neck and back while serving.413
Martin Ozinga (R)
Born: 01/09/1950, Evergreen Park, IL
Home: Mokena
Education: BA Calvin College
Religion: Christian
Marital Status: Married (Ruth)
146
Professional Career: Businessman
Martin "Marty" Ozinga III was born and raised in the middle-class south suburb of Evergreen
Park, Ill. He started work at his family's concrete manufacturing and delivery business, Ozinga
Bros., at 15. He currently lives in Will County.
He enrolled at Calvin College in Grand Rapids, MI, in 1968, and earned a bachelor of arts degree
in psychology.
After graduating, Ozinga became general manager at Ozinga Bros. helping expand the business
to nearly three dozen locations in the Chicagoland area. He succeeded his father as company
president in 1985.
Ozinga has served on four school boards, including a stint as president of Roseland Christian
School on the south side of Chicago.
Ozinga and his wife, Ruth, have six sons.
414
Race Notes:
Republican efforts to retain this suburban, exurban and rural district south and southwest of
Chicago took a hit early when the original nominee gave up on what looked like an underdog bid
against Democratic state Sen. Debbie Halvorson. But the replacement GOP candidate, concrete
company executive Marty Ozinga, has made the race close.
Each candidate is accusing the other of practicing “pay-to-play” politics and invoking unpopular
Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich, who heads a Democratic-run state government in which Halvorson
serves as state Senate majority leader.
Democrats have noted Ozinga’s $10,000 campaign contribution to Blagojevich three years
ago.415
Halvorson, the well-known Democrat, is gunning for a district that backed George Bush in 2004
but where Weller has seen his margins of victory shrink.416
In September 2007, Rep. Jerry Weller (R) announced that he would not seek an 8th term in the
House.417
The 11th district stretches from the south suburbs to the farming area of central Illinois. National
Republican leaders do not want to lose what they thought had become a stronghold.
Ozinga, a born-again Christian, is counting on support from like-minded voters. From all
accounts, it is a very close race that should go down to the wire.418
In mid-October, VP Dick Cheney canceled an appearance at a private fundraising event for
Ozinga. Halvorson’s campaign had pounced on Cheney's planned visit as an example of Ozinga
being out of touch with district residents.419
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Jerry Weller (R)
109,009
55%
$1,906,882
John Pavich (D)
88,846
45%
$593,324
2006 primary
Jerry Weller (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Jerry Weller (R)
173,057
59%
$1,792,779
147
Tari Renner (D)
121,903
41%
$315,600
148
149
Maine
Electoral Votes:
4
First Polls Open:
6:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
396,842
53.57
Bush
330,201
44.58
Other
13,709
1.85
66,641
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
44.58%
53.57%
2000
43.97%
49.09%
1996
30.76%
51.62%
1992
30.39%
38.77%
1988
55.34%
43.88%
1984
60.83%
38.78%
1980
45.61%
42.25%
2008 Caucus Results
Democrats
Primary Date:
2/10/2008
Obama
60%
Clinton
40%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Romney
McCain
Paul
Each CD winner takes 1 EV;
statewide winner takes 2 EV.
Feb. 2
51.8%
21.5%
18.3%
Party Breakdown
Governor
John E. Baldacci (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
2
0
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
18
17
0
State House
90
59
2
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
325,926
Republican
274,410
Other
29,237
374,328
Total
1,003,901
As Of
9/8/2008
VEP 2008
1,049,090
VEP Turnout 2004
73.40%
1,317,207
Total population
State Pop. Rank
194,986
14.8%
65 years and over
1,257,390
95.5%
Non-Hispanic White
12,860
1.0%
Black
11,815
0.9%
Asian
15,656
1.2%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Portland city
62,825
Lewiston city
35,234
Bangor city
31,853
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
6.5%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$45,888
U.S.
$50,740
150
MAINE – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Susan Collins (R) Incumbent
Born: December 7, 1952, in Caribou, ME
Home: Bangor, ME
Education: BA, Saint Lawrence University, 1975.
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Single
Elected Office: Senate Republican Deputy Whip, United States Senate, 1997-present; Senator,
United States Senate, 1997-present; Candidate, Governor of Maine, 1994; Commissioner,
Department of Professional & Financial Regulation, State of Maine, 1987-1992.
Professional Career: Business center director; congressional aide
Sen. Collins is seeking a third term in the Senate.
Susan M. Collins was born in Caribou, Maine, and resides in Bangor. She received a bachelor's
degree in government and graduated from St. Lawrence University in Canton, N.Y., in 1975.
Collins comes from a family with a long and varied background in state politics. Her father,
Donald Collins, served in the state Senate and her late uncle, Samuel Collins, served in a state
Senate leadership post before serving in the state Supreme Court. Susan Collins' mother, Pat,
served as a trustee to the University of Maine System.
Fresh out of St. Lawrence University in Canton, N.Y., Collins worked for Sen. William S. Cohen,
1975-87, before serving in GOP Gov. John McKernan's Cabinet as commissioner of professional
and financial regulation, 1987-92.
She was the New England administrator of the Small Business Administration in Boston, 199293, and deputy treasurer of the state of Massachusetts for eight months in 1993.420
She won a 1994 eight-way GOP primary race for Maine's gubernatorial nomination with 21
percent of the vote, then finished third in the four-way general election with 23 percent of the
vote.421
In November 1995, Collins decided not to run for the U.S. House to concentrate on her duties as
founding executive director of the new Center for Family Business and director of external and
international programs at Husson College.
Collins was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996 and won re-election in 2002.
In the Senate, Collins has been known to join with like-minded Democrats on occasion.
Collins is a ranking member and former chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security
and Governmental Affairs.
Collins, who formerly pledged to serve no more than two Senate terms, is running for a third term,
portraying herself as a moderate with a history of bipartisanship.
She is single.422
151
Rep. Tom Allen (D)
Born: April 16, 1945, in Portland, ME
Home: Portland, ME
Education: BA (English), Bowdoin College; JD (Law), Harvard Law School; BA (Philosophy),
Oxford University
Religion: Protestant
Marital status: Married (Diana)
Elected Office: Portland City Council, 1989-95; Mayor of Portland, 1991-92; US House, 1996present
Professional Career: Policy consultant; lawyer; congressional aide
Tom Allen is a Portland resident who has represented Maine’s 1st District in the U.S. House of
Representatives for 12 years.423
Allen was born in Portland, where he still lives. He received a bachelor's degree from Bowdoin
College in 1967 and attended Oxford University, where Bill Clinton was a Rhodes classmate.
He worked a year for Sen. Edmund Muskie of Maine, then attended Harvard Law School,
graduating in 1974.
Allen practiced law for 20 years. His background in government revolves around Maine's largest
city.
He is a former member of Portland's City Council – for six years before stepping down in June
1995 – like his father and grandfather. He also served as the city's mayor, a largely ceremonial
post.424
He finished second in the five-way race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 1994.425
He was first elected to the U.S. House in 1996. He has never landed less than 60 percent in the
ensuing elections.
The six-term congressman is leaving his House seat to challenge Sen. Collins.
Allen and his wife, Diana, have two daughters.426
Race Notes:
Moderate Republicans like Collins are an ever-rarer breed, and they increasingly have become
Democratic targets, especially in the Northeast.427
This might be one of the few bright spots for Republicans, with polling pointing to an increasing
lead for Collins over Allen.
Though Collins was one of the party's top targets in 2007, her team has hunkered down and
taken the race so seriously that Democrats rarely make mention of it anymore.
Strategists say that talk that an Obama wave could carry Allen over the top has ceased. Still, the
DSCC is still spending in the state, and Allen has brought in a lengthy list of political figures and
elected officials to help him plead his case in a state that the Democratic presidential ticket
carried by nearly 10 points in 2004.428
Given that Maine has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee four consecutive times,
Democrats expected to give Republican incumbent Collins a tough fight with six-term Rep. Allen
as her seasoned challenger.
152
Yet Collins has positioned herself as the kind of centrist Republican profile, modeling herself
Olympia J. Snowe , the state’s senior GOP senator, and polls into October showed her with a
double-digit lead that seemed impervious to Allen’s efforts to tie Collins closely to President Bush.
Nonetheless, with national Democratic officials saying they were committed to boosting Allen into
429
striking distance, this was not a seat that the GOP took for granted.
While some of her Senate counterparts fight for their electoral lives in what should be safe GOP
states across the country, Collins is on target to win re-election by a healthy margin in a state that
should be a better bet for Democrats.430
Allen is leaving his House seat to challenge Collins, who had pledged to limit herself to two terms
but is seeking a third in the 2008 election.431
Allen has painted Collins as an ally of Bush whose support of the president has contributed to
mismanagement of the economy, to the Iraq war, and to skyrocketing energy costs.
Collins has countered those arguments by describing Allen as a party-line Democrat and by
stressing her record of legislative and bipartisan accomplishments.432
Collins has criticized Allen for what she says is his lack of bipartisanship and effectiveness and
his low business-friendly rating.
Allen has countered those arguments by saying he supports the middle class and Collins sides
with Bush too much.
Collins says she has a proven bi-partisan record, having voted across the aisle with Democrats
one-third of the time.
She says she has a history of being effective, having successfully written legislation on homeland
security, education, health care and other issues.433
Analysis by
Maine
Race Rating
Likely R
Leans Republican
Leans Republican
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
Susan Collins (R)
295,041
58%
$3,961,167
Chellie Pingree (D)
209,858
42%
$3,806,798
2002 primary Susan Collins (R)
1996 general
Total Votes
Unopposed
Susan Collins (R)
298,422
49%
$1,621,475
Joseph Brennan
(D)
266,226
44%
$976,805
42,129
7%
Other
153
Maryland
Electoral Votes:
10
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
1,334,493
55.91%
Bush
1,024,703
42.93%
Other
27,482
1.16%
309,790
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
42.93%
55.91%
2000
40.28%
56.46%
1996
38.27%
54.25%
1992
35.62%
49.80%
1988
51.11%
48.20%
1984
52.51%
47.02%
1980
44.18%
47.14%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 12
Obama
60.7%
Clinton
35.8%
Edwards
1.2%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 12
McCain
54.8%
Huckabee
28.5%
Romney
7.0%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Martin O'Malley (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
6
2
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
33
14
0
State House
104
37
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
1,857,943
Republican
912,573
Other
65,177
466,374
Total
3,302,067
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
3,956,632
VEP Turnout 2004
63.72%
5,618,344
Total population
19
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
661,809
11.8%
65 years and over
3,262,581
58.1%
Non-Hispanic White
1,655,231
29.5%
Black
282,076
5.0%
Asian
356,227
6.3%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Baltimore
637,455
Frederick
59,220
Rockville
58,706
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
4.6%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$68,080
U.S.
$50,740
154
Legislative Referendum/ Constitutional Amendment
Question 2. Gambling. Allows 15,000 video lottery terminals in five locations across the
state.
Authorizes the State to issue up to five video lottery licenses for the primary purpose of raising
revenue for education of children in public schools, prekindergarten through grade 12, public
school construction and improvements, and construction of capital projects at community colleges
and higher education institutions. No more than a total number of 15,000 video lottery terminals
may be authorized in the State, and only one license may be issued for each specified location in
Anne Arundel, Cecil, Worcester, and Allegany Counties, and Baltimore City. Any additional forms
or expansion of commercial gaming in Maryland is prohibited, unless approved by a voter
referendum. (Enacts new Article XIX of the Maryland Constitution) (For, Against)
st
Maryland 1 District
Andrew Harris
Born: January 25, 1957, Brooklyn, New York.
Home: Cockeysville, Md.
Education: MD (Medicine), Johns Hopkins University; MHS (Health Policy and Management;
Health Finance and Management), Johns Hopkins University; BS (Human Biology), Johns
Hopkins University
Religion: N/A
Marital Status: Married (Cookie)
Elected Office: Maryland State Senate
Professional Experience: Physician.
Andrew P. Harris was born in New York and currently resides in Cockeysville, Md.
He is an obstetric anesthesiologist at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore. He is also an
associate professor of anesthesiology at the school, where he earned his medical degree.
An opponent of abortion rights, Harris is among the most conservative members of the Maryland
legislature.434
Harris was elected to the state Senate in 1998 and He was the Senate minority whip from 20032007.
This is Andrew Harris' first run for Congress.435
Harris is married. He and his wife, Cookie, have five children.436
Frank Kratovil
Born: May 29, 1968, Lanham, Md.
Home: Stevensville, Md.
Education: JD (Law), University of Baltimore School of Law; BA (Political Science), Western
Maryland College
Religion: Episcopal
Marital Status: Married (Kimberly)
Elected Office: Queen Anne's County States Attorney, 2003-present
Professional Experience: Attorney.
Frank Michael Kratovil was born in Lanham, Md. and currently resides in Stevensville, Md.
He received his bachelor's degree from Western Maryland College and his law degree from the
University of Baltimore School of Law.
155
Kratovil has worked as a prosecutor since graduating from law school in 1994.437
Kratovil served as the County's only full-time prosecutor and community prosecutor until 2001.
438
Frank Michael Kratovil was elected state's attorney of Queen Anne's county in 2002 and reelected in 2006.
From 2005-2007, Kratovil was head of the Maryland State's Attorneys Association.
Kratovil lists immigration reform as his top priority if elected.
He is married. He and his wife, Kimberly, have four children.
439
156
The Race:
Frank M. Kratovil Jr., a moderate and a prosecutor, is giving GOP state Sen. Andy Harris all he
can handle.
Harris beat nine-term moderate incumbent Gilchrest in a bitter primary, prompting Gilchrest to
endorse Kratovil.
Kratovil outraised Harris in the most recent quarter, and the Democratic Party is spending big on
the race.
This conservative-leaning district takes in the Eastern Shore and exurban areas near
440
Baltimore.
Democrats claim that Harris is too conservative to hold the seat for the GOP.
441
The 1st district has been a reliable district for the Republican as evidenced by strong presidential
442
showings by George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.
The race is shaped by aggressive advertising, a steep drop in fortunes for Harris' party
nationwide and lots of outside money.
The Eastern Shore-based district was considered safe for the Republicans as recently as
February. Democrats now see a shot at picking up their seventh of Maryland's eight House seats.
Analysts say Harris maintains a slight edge over Kratovil.
The Baltimore sun calls the 1st district one of Maryland's most competitive congressional races.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee planning to spend more than $1 million to back
Kratovil, while Harris finds himself in a contest that has grown unexpectedly tight.443
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Wayne Gilchrest
(R)
Jim Corwin (D)
Total Votes
185,177
69%
$182,375
83,738
31%
$29,701
2006 primary
Wayne Gilchrest
(R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Wayne Gilchrest
(R)
245,149
76%
$391,272
77,872
24%
$113,435
Kostas Alexakis (D)
157
Massachusetts
Electoral Votes:
12
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
1,803,800
61.94%
Bush
1,071,109
36.78%
Other
37,479
1.28%
732,691
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
36.78%
61.94%
2000
32.50%
59.80%
1996
28.09%
61.47%
1992
29.02%
47.54%
1988
45.37%
53.23%
1984
51.22%
48.43%
1980
41.90%
41.75%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Clinton
56.2%
Obama
40.8%
Edwards
1.6%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Romney
51.1%
McCain
40.9%
Huckabee
3.8%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Deval Patrick (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
10
0
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
35
5
0
State House
141
19
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
1,503,307
Republican
483486
Other
28,654
2,078,056
Total
4,093,503
As Of
8/27/2008
VEP 2008
4,699,783
VEP Turnout 2004
63.60%
1,317,207
Total population
40
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
858,939
13.3%
65 years and over
5,142,223
79.7%
Non-Hispanic White
447,879
6.9%
Black
315,114
4.9%
Asian
527,859
8.2%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Boston
599,351
Worcester
173,966
Springfield
149,938
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
5.3%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$62,365
U.S.
$50,740
158
Statutory Initiative
Question 1. Repeals state income tax.
This proposed law would reduce the state personal income tax rate to 2.65% for all categories of
taxable income for the tax year beginning on or after January 1, 2009, and would eliminate the
tax for all tax years beginning on or after January 1, 2010. The personal income tax applies to
income received or gain realized by individuals and married couples, by estates of deceased
persons, by certain trustees and other fiduciaries, by persons who are partners in and receive
income from partnerships, by corporate trusts, and by persons who receive income as
shareholders of "S corporations" as defined under federal tax law. The proposed law would not
affect the tax due on income or gain realized in a tax year beginning before January 1, 2009. The
proposed law states that if any of its parts were declared invalid, the other parts would stay in
effect. A YES VOTE would reduce the state personal income tax rate to 2.65% for the tax year
beginning on January 1, 2009, and would eliminate the tax for all tax years beginning on or after
January 1, 2010. A NO VOTE would make no change in state income tax laws.
MASSACHUSETTS – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. John F. Kerry (D), Incumbent
Born: December 11, 1942; Denver, CO
Home: Boston
Education: Yale U., A.B. 1966, Boston Col., LL.B. 1976
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Teresa Heinz)
Elected Office: MA Lt. Gov., 1982-84.
Military Career: Navy, 1966-70 (Vietnam), Naval Reserves, 1972-78.
Professional Career: Organizer, Vietnam Veterans Against the War; Asst. Dist. Atty., Middlesex
Cnty., 1976-81; Practicing atty., 1981-82.
John Kerry was born in Denver and resides in Boston. He graduated from St. Paul's boarding
school in Concord, N.H. in 1962.
Kerry was a volunteer in the 1962 senatorial campaign of Edward M. Kennedy.
He received a bachelor's degree in 1966 from Yale University and a law degree from Boston
College Law School in 1976.
The son of a foreign service worker and wealthy Massachusetts Yankee, Kerry has largely lived
the life of a high patrician. He went to boarding school overseas and then spent his
undergraduate years at Yale.
After graduation, he volunteered for the Navy, serving from 1966 to 1969, eventually commanding
a swift boat in Vietnam. Kerry was awarded three Purple Hearts, a Bronze Star and a Silver Star
for his duty aboard warships off Vietnam.
On his return from Vietnam as a military hero, Kerry helped found Vietnam Veterans Against the
War and became its leading spokesman.
He tried to use his newfound celebrity to run for Congress in 1972. He lost, went to law school
and became a prosecutor in Middlesex County, Mass.
He returned to politics in 1982, when he was elected lieutenant governor of Massachusetts on the
Dukakis ticket.
159
He was elected to the Senate in 1984 when he beat Democratic Rep. James M. Shannon for the
nomination to replace retiring Sen. Paul Tsongas. He won the general election and re-election to
the seat in 1992, 1996 and 2002.
He won the Democratic nomination for president in 2004, but lost the presidential race to George
W. Bush.
He ended up losing only three states during the primary season - ceding South Carolina to
Edwards, Oklahoma to Wesley Clark and Vermont to Dean.
Kerry lost the November 2004 election to Bush by 286 to 251 electoral votes and by more than 3
million popular votes.
On May 26, 1995, Kerry married Teresa Heinz in a civil ceremony on Nantucket. Kerry has two
444
children from a previous marriage.
Jeffrey K Beatty (R)
Born: September 24, 1952; Passaic, NJ
Home: Harwich Haven
Education: Rutgers University, B.A., 1974
Religion: Christian Non-Denomiantional
Military Career: U.S. Army, 1974-83
Professional Career: Businessman, FBI Agent, CIA Officer
Jeffrey Beatty was born in Passaic N.J. in 1952 and was adopted at birth by Christine and Ray
Beatty.
While playing on his high school baseball team, Beatty sustained an injury to his foot requiring
surgery that left him wheelchair bound and on crutches for nearly six months. He enrolled in
ROTC, worked his way through college, and graduated from Rutgers in 1974.
Beatty immediately entered the Army as an infantry officer. He served in Panama, then attended
flight school, and later petitioned to join the Delta Force. His cousin had been shot down in
Vietnam and Beatty had dreamed of being part of a rescue mission.
He got his chance when American medical students became trapped during a 1983 palace coup
on the Caribbean island of Grenada. Beatty was among the thousands of US troops sent to
restore order. His helicopter was shot down. He was one of 16 wounded, but helped complete the
mission of rescuing the students.
Beatty left the Army to join the FBI, when he worked with a hostage rescue team during the Los
Angeles Olympics. From there, Beatty joined the CIA to help run counterterrorism efforts in
Europe and the Middle East until 1992.
Beatty left government service to form a security consulting business. He's worked with the
MBTA, the Atlanta Olympics, and consulted on security at the Statue of Liberty and the World
Trade Center before the Sept. 11 attacks.445
In 2006, Beatty failed in his attempt to unseat Democrat incumbent Rep. William Delahunt in the
state's 10th congressional district. Beatty captured about 30 percent of the vote.446
Beatty is unmarried and has no children.447
160
Race Notes:
Kerry should have no trouble winning a fifth term.
No Republican has won a Senate election here since 1972 and Kerry’s opponent, Beatty, has no
448
chance of breaking that tradition.
Kerry has held a lead of more than 30 points in most polls.
Kerry easily defeated his token Democratic primary opposition — his first primary challenge of his
24 years in office — a mostly self-funded anti-war candidate whom Kerry debated just once.
Republican hopes were deflated when their chosen contender, former 5th district candidate and
hay farmer Jim Ogonowski, failed to collect enough signatures to get on the ballot. Instead, the
449
GOP nominated security adviser Beatty.
Beatty was trounced by Rep. Bill Delahunt (D) in 2006.
450
Kerry ended the only real suspense surrounding this race in 2007 when he said he would not run
451
for president again in 2008 but would instead seek a fifth Senate term.
Beatty had more than $58,000 in campaign cash leading into the final two weeks of the race.
Kerry's latest federal filing shows he has more than $5.3 million in his war chest. The
Massachusetts Democrat spent more than $2 million in recent months, including a $1 million
check to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to help elect Democratic senators.452
Kerry won re-election in 2002 with 80% of the vote.
On the war in Iraq, Beatty told Kerry, “You’ve got blood on your hands for 500 Massachusetts
families” of veterans wounded or killed in Iraq or Afghanistan.453
Beatty favors a state ballot measure that would require the state to repeal the income tax.454
Kerry called the ballot question "disastrous" and said Massachusetts has worked hard to cut
taxes in recent years.455
Analysis by
Massachusetts
Race Rating
Solid D
Safe Democratic
Safe Democrat
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
Total Votes
John Kerry (D)
Michael Cloud (Lib)
2002 primary John Kerry (D)
1996 general
1,605,976
80%
$9,305,860
369,807
18%
$207,684
Unopposed
John Kerry (D)
1,334,135
52% $12,619,152
William Weld (R)
1,143,120
45%
78,687
3%
Other
Prior winning
percentages:
$8,002,123
1990 (57%); 1984 (55%)
161
162
Mississippi
Electoral Votes:
6
First Polls Open:
8:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
684,981
59.45%
Kerry
458,094
39.76%
Other
9,070
0.79%
226,887
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
59.45%
39.76%
2000
57.62%
40.70%
1996
49.21%
44.08%
1992
49.68%
40.77%
1988
59.89%
39.07%
1984
61.88%
37.42%
1980
49.42%
48.09%
Democrats
Primary Date:
March. 11
Obama
61.2%
Clinton
36.7%
Edwards
0.9%
Republicans
Primary Date:
March. 11
McCain
79.0%
Huckabee
12.6%
Paul
3.8%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Haley Barbour (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
3
1
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
27
25
0
State House
75
47
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
1,828,867
As Of
9/29/2008
VEP 2008
2,150,547
VEP Turnout 2004
55.56%
2,918,785
Total population
31
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
364,614
12.5%
65 years and over
1,718,830
58.9%
Non-Hispanic White
1,086,584
37.2%
Black
23,597
0.8%
Asian
60,168
2.1%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Jackson
175,710
Gulfport
66,271
Hattiesburg
50,233
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
7.8%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$36,338
U.S.
$50,740
163
MISSISSIPPI – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Thad Cochran (R) Incumbent
Born: December 7, 1937; Pontotoc, Miss.
Residence: Jackson
Religion: Baptist
Family: Wife, Rose Cochran; two children
Education: U. of Mississippi, B.A. 1959 (psychology); Trinity College (U. of Dublin, Ireland),
attended 1963-64 (international law); U. of Mississippi, J.D. 1965
Military Service: Navy, 1959-61
Career: Lawyer
Political Highlights: U.S. House, 1973-78; U.S. Senate, 1978-Present
Sen. Cochran is seeking a sixth term in the Senate.
William Thad Cochran was born in Pontotoc, Miss., and his family moved to Byram, Miss., when
he was a child. After having lived in the Jackson area for many years, he now lives in Oxford.
He received a bachelor's degree in 1959 and a law degree in 1965 from the University of
Mississippi. Cochran served in the U.S. Navy from 1959 to 1961. He practiced law in Jackson
from 1965 to 1972.
Cochran was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1972 and served three consecutive
terms.
Cochran became the first Mississippi Republican to hold a statewide office since Reconstruction
when he won a seat in the U.S. Senate in 1978.
The Democratic takeover of the Senate after the 2006 election diminished the power of
Mississippi Republican Thad Cochran, who - until then - had been chairman of the powerful
Appropriations Committee.
As chairman, Cochran helped steer billions of dollars in federal aid to his state after Hurricane
Katrina left a wide swath of destruction in August 2005.
Cochran has long been one of the Republican Party's top fund-raisers.
Cochran and his wife, Rose, have two adult children.456
Former State Rep. Erik Fleming
Born: February 2, 1965; Chicago,
Residence: Clinton, Miss.
Religion: Christian
Marital Status: Married (Sharon Nacole)
Education: BA (Political Science), Jackson State University, 1987
Career: Paralegal
Prev. Political Exp.: MS House, 1999-present
Erik Fleming was born in Chicago, Ill., and currently lives in Clinton, Miss., a suburb of Jackson.
He received his bachelor's degree from Jackson State University in Jackson, Miss., in 1987.
Fleming was student body president from 1986-87.
Fleming worked on several campaigns before starting his own political career, including
Democrat Ray Mabus' successful campaign for Mississippi governor in 1987 and Democrat Mike
Parker's successful campaign for the U.S. House in 1988 (Parker switched to the Republican
Party in 1995).
164
Fleming also worked on Democrat Ronnie Musgrove's successful campaign for Mississippi
lieutenant governor in 1995.
After Musgrove was elected, he helped Fleming become sergeant-at-arms of the Mississippi
457
Senate in 1996.
He ran unsuccessfully for Jackson City Council and Hinds County Tax Collector.
He also served as president of Young Democrats of Mississippi (1991-92) and chairman of the
458
Hinds County Democratic Executive Committee (1996-99).
Fleming served in the 122-member Mississippi House of Representatives from January 1999
through January 2008, representing a district that included parts of Hinds and Rankin counties in
459
the metro Jackson area. He was defeated in the Democratic primary in August 2007.
Fleming was the Democratic nominee for a U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi in 2006, losing to
Republican incumbent Trent Lott. Certified results show Lott received 63.6 percent of the vote,
Fleming received 34.9 percent.460
Fleming is a paralegal for the Mississippi Immigrants Rights Alliance.
He is divorced and has three children.461
Race Notes:
Cochran is not expected to have any trouble defeating Fleming.
The only real drama of Cochran’s re-election came last fall when rumors began to circulate that
the 70-year-old Senator might not seek another term.
But after announcing last November 2007 that he would run again, the much-beloved senior
Senator has been considered safely on track to win a sixth term.
Democrats have nominated former state Rep. Erik Fleming to take on Cochran. After being beat
by almost 30 points in 2006 by former Lott, it’s hard to see Fleming doing any better this year.462
Once Cochran announced last fall that he would run again, Democrats wrote off their chances
here.463
Cochran, a 36-year Washington veteran, is so well known that his campaign signs simply read
"Thad."
Cochran is the ranking Republican member of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee
and has helped bring billions of dollars to his home state, one of the poorest in the nation.
In a year when the Republican presidential nominee, John McCain, is railing against earmarks for
congressional pet projects, Cochran is unapologetic about having steered billions of dollars to
Mississippi.
Fleming has no paid staff and drives himself to campaign events when he can afford gas for his
Hyundai.
Fleming is black, as are about 37 percent of all Mississippians. Although Mississippi has dozens
of black state lawmakers and one of its four U.S. House members is black, a black candidate has
never won statewide office.
165
Hiram Revels, a black Republican, was a U.S. senator from Mississippi for about a year, starting
in 1870. But he was chosen by the Reconstruction-era state Legislature. U.S. senators were first
elected by popular vote in 1913.
Fleming is hoping for a bump if Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama increases black
voter turnout in Mississippi. But Cochran's appeal cuts across lines of race and party. He has had
several black staff members and makes appearances at events that attract diverse crowds.
Fleming got no financial help from his national party when he challenged Lott two years ago, and
he said he's getting only $15,000 from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee this
464
year.
Mississippi is a fairly Republican state—at least at the federal level. There hasn’t been a
Democratic Senator since the late John Stennis retired in 1988, and two of the state’s four
465
Congressmen are Republicans.
Analysis by
Mississippi (Cochran)
Race Rating
Solid R
Safe Republican
Safe Republican
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
Thad Cochran
(R)
533,269
85%
$1,453,688
Shawn O'Hara
(Ref)
97,226
15%
2002
primary
Thad Cochran
(R)
Unopposed
1996
general
Thad Cochran
(R)
624,154
71%
James W. Hunt
(D)
240,647
27%
13,861
2%
2002
general
Other
Prior winning
percentages:
$1,305,680
1990 (100%); 1984 (61%); 1978 (45%);
1976 House (76%); 1974 House (70%);
1972 House (48%)
166
MISSISSIPPI – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Roger Wicker (R) Incumbent
Born: 07-05-1951, Pontotoc
Home: Tupelo
Education: U. of MS, B.A. 1973, J.D. 1975
Religion: Baptist
Marital status: married (Gayle)
Elected Office: Tupelo City Judge Pro Tem, 86–87; MS Senate, 87–94., U.S. Rep., 95-2008.
Professional Career: Staff, U.S. House Rules Cmte., 1980–82; Practicing atty., 1982–94; Lee
Cnty. Public Defender, 1984–87.
Military: Military Career: Air Force, 1976–80; Air Force Reserve, 1980–present.
Roger Wicker served in the Air Force and in 1980 became a staff aide to Lott on the Senate
Rules Committee.
In 1987, at 36, he was the first Republican elected to the state Senate from northern Mississippi
since Reconstruction. Wicker served in the Mississippi Senate from 1987-1994.
Wicker was elected to the House as part of the GOP sweep of Congress in 1994. He served
seven terms.466
Wicker was re-elected easily in 1996 with 68%, in 1998 with 67%, in 2000 with 70%, in 2002 with
71%, in 2004 with 79%, and in 2006 with 66%.467
Wicker was elected president of the 73-member House freshman class, one of the largest in the
20th century and one destined to be remembered for ending 40 years of Democratic control of
Capitol Hill.468
Wicker was known as an ally of Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, in his early years in
Congress.469
Roger Wicker became the state’s junior senator in January 2008, appointed by Republican Gov.
Haley Barbour to take the place of retiring Sen. Trent Lott until a special election on November 4,
2008. The winner will serve out the remainder of Lott’s six-year term, through the end of 2012.
He typically has been a team player for his party, voting with his leadership and his president
most of the time. He has been particularly valuable to the Bush White House as a stalwart backer
of the war in Iraq and other big Pentagon items.470
Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Born: 07-29-1956, Sardis, MS
Home: Batesville
Education: BA 1978, JD 1981 U. of MS
Religion: Southern Baptist
Marital status: separated
Elected Office: MS Senate 1987-95, 1991, MS Lt Governor 1995-99
Professional Career: Atty., Smith, Musgrove & McCord, 1981-99
David "Ronnie" Ronald Musgrove was born in Tocowa in Panola County, Miss., and lives in
Madison, Miss., a suburb of the capital city of Jackson. He graduated from the University of
Mississippi in 1978 and earned a law degree there in 1981.
Musgrove was a state senator from Panola County from January 1988 to January 1996. He was
elected to the state Senate in 1987, at 31, and re-elected in 1991.
167
He earned a reputation as a promoter of public education. He was chairman of the Senate
Education Committee from 1992-1996 and led efforts to restructure Mississippi's complicated
471
school funding formula.
Musgrove is a hill-country populist who continued to champion education in his terms as governor
472
and lieutenant governor.
He was Mississippi lieutenant governor from January 1996 to January 2000. In his second month
in office, February 1996, he suffered a mild brain injury in an auto accident; for a time it seemed
his life was in danger, but he recovered fully.
His run for governor turned out to be the closest in Mississippi history. Winning the popular vote
was not decisive under a Mississippi law. Normally the candidate that won the most state House
districts would win, but they tied. Under the 1890 law, the decision then went to the state House
of Representatives where Musgrove was elected in January 2000.
As a one-term governor starting in January 2000, Musgrove angered many lawmakers by vetoing
all budget bills one year because he said the state was spending too much money. The House
and Senate overrode those vetoes.
Musgrove's greatest success as governor was helping persuade Nissan to build Mississippi's first
automotive manufacturing plan in Canton, about 20 miles north of Jackson. The plant was
announced in 2000 and opened in 2003.
He served as Mississippi governor from January 2000 to January 2004. He was defeated by
Republican Haley Barbour in the November 2003 election.
Musgrove -- conservative, anti-abortion, pro-gun, the son of a road-crew worker who died of
pneumonia when the candidate was 7 -- calls himself a ''Mississippi Democrat'' to separate
himself from the national party. But he carries the albatross that led to his failure to win re-election
as governor in 2003: he supported ridding the Mississippi flag of its Confederate emblem.
Musgrove and his first wife, Melanie, were married for nearly 24 years before divorcing in 2001.
He married the former Melody Bounds, on Aug. 4, 2007. He has two children and two
stepchildren.473
Race Notes:
Wicker is in danger of losing his Senate seat in a special election against Musgrove. Musgrove
has inched up in the polls and one recent survey showed him statistically even with Wicker.
Sen. Wicker has been serving as Senator since his appointment in January to replace Republican
Trent Lott, who resigned in December 2007. While Wicker is still working to introduce himself to
voters outside of the 1st District he formerly represented, former Gov. Musgrove brings high
statewide name ID to the race.474
Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to an open Senate seat since 1947, but that is not
stopping the Democratic Party from heavily financing a major effort in the state this year.475
The latest spending numbers show that the DSCC has dropped some $5 million into the
Mississippi Senate contest. Some Republicans say they wouldn’t be surprised if DSCC spending
reached $6 million or even $7 million by Election Day. By contrast, the National Republican
Senatorial Committee has spent just more than $2.5 million in the Magnolia State as of the third
week of Oct.
Musgrove came into the special election race with greater name recognition than Wicker, but the
Republican was viewed as the early frontrunner because of the strength of the GOP machine in
the state and his strong fundraising. And throughout the campaign, Wicker has maintained his
168
fundraising edge over Musgrove. Wicker reported $1.66 million in cash on hand as of Sept. 30;
Musgrove had $460,000 in cash on hand. Over the entire cycle Wicker raised $4.4 million to
Musgrove’s $2 million.
But the sheer weight of the national party’s spending has forced this race into the tossup
476
category. Turn on a television here and the candidates can be found flailing at each other's
ethics, morals and probity in what local analysts say is a never-seen-before barrage of negative
advertisements.
Wicker and Musgrove roomed together as state senators in Jackson in the early 1990s and are
similar in appearance -- narrow, white-haired and in their 50s.
Wicker is making sure the flag issue stays on voters' minds, running a ubiquitous television
advertisement that says Musgrove ''tried to kill our state flag.''
There are also reminders along the way of Musgrove's divorce while in office -- Wicker frequently
cites the stability of his own marriage -- and frequent mentions of the Democrat's contributions
from executives of a failed, state-backed beef-processing plant that cost Mississippi some $55
million.477
A recent Wicker campaign ad uses fake Village People and a person in a cow costume to
lampoon Democratic fundraising efforts for a U.S. Senate race in Mississippi.478
Musgrove avoids mentioning Obama, but does connect his Republican opponent at every
opportunity with hated ''Washington'' -- his own term of derision, and one he is betting has
potency in a climate of fear that has penetrated even in an insular state that for generations has
considered itself immune to national trends.
The numbers in this state, which has perhaps the most racially polarized electorate in the nation,
do not favor the Democrat: whites, a majority, overwhelmingly vote Republican, and 85 percent of
them voted for President Bush in 2004. Even if there is a record black turnout, Musgrove would
have to receive about 30 percent of the white vote to win.
Nonetheless, analysts give Musgrove a better-than-passing chance, particularly as the credit
squeeze penetrates even here.479
Analysis:
Sen. Wicker started out behind his Democratic challenger, former Governor Musgrove, who lost
his office to Barbour in 2003. Usually, a defeat for reelection as Governor casts doubt on a
comeback, and Musgrove had an embarrassingly public divorce while he was Governor,
complete with allegations of adultery.
Moreover, Barack Obama is no longer competitive in this 38% black state. John McCain's
sizeable victory here, combined with Wicker's quasi-incumbency, will probably give him the seat
for the next four years. (Lott's term was due to expire in 2012.)
Recently, Gov. Barbour tried to assist Wicker further by listing the Senate special election at the
bottom of the ballot, where many less educated voters would presumably miss it. A nearly
unanimous state Supreme Court nixed this underhanded trick. Both Senate contests will be listed
together. Wicker should not want to win that way, and he likely doesn't need it.480
169
Analysis by
Mississippi (Wicker)
Race Rating
Toss Up
New Toss-up
No Clear Favorite
Recent Poll Results
Dates
N/Pop
Wicker
Musgrove
Other
Undecided
Margin
Rasmussen
9/30/08
500 LV
49
47
2
3
+2R
InsiderAdvantage
9/24/08
500 LV
48
43
-
9
+5R
Rasmussen
8/21/08
500 LV
52
43
3
7
+9R
Pollster
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Trent Lott (R)
388,399
64%
$2,088,465
Erik Fleming (D)
213,000
35%
$38,495
9,522
2%
Other
2006 primary Trent Lott (R)
2000 general
Total Votes
Unopposed
Trent Lott (R)
654,941
66%
$3,663,052
Troy Brown (D)
314,090
32%
$40,349
25,113
3%
Other
170
Missouri
Electoral Votes:
11
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Battleground state
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
1,455,713
53.3
Kerry
1,259,171
46.1
Other
16,480
0.6
196,542
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
53.30%
46.10%
2000
50.42%
47.08%
1996
41.24%
47.54%
1992
33.92%
44.07%
1988
51.82%
47.84%
1984
60.02%
39.98%
1980
51.16%
44.35%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 5
Obama
49.3%
Clinton
47.9%
Edwards
2.0%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 5
McCain
33.0%
Huckabee
31.5%
Romney
29.3%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Matt Blunt (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
4
5
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
14
20
0
State House
71
92
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
4,048,759
As Of
9/27/2008
VEP 2008
4,399,012
VEP Turnout 2004
66.89%
5,878,415
Total population
18
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
788,371
13.4%
65 years and over
4,839,175
82.3%
Non-Hispanic White
677,657
11.5%
Black
85,505
1.5%
Asian
178,421
3.0%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Kansas City
450,375
St. Louis
350,759
Springfield
154,777
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
6.4%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$45,114
U.S.
$50,740
171
Missouri – Battleground State
For weeks, Obama inched up in the polls in Missouri, but the most recent polls have shown a
481
tight race in Missouri. McCain is defending his turf in bellwether Missouri.
Both campaigns are actively competing in the state. Palin is scheduled to be at Oct. 30 campaign
event in Cape Girardeau. It will be the second visit to the state in a week for McCain's running
mate. Obama said he expects to make another stop in Missouri before the Nov. 4 election.482
This summer, whites in the state's conservative rural and exurban areas put McCain squarely in
the lead. With a hybrid of Midwestern and Southern attitudes, such voters helped President Bush
win the state in 2000 and 2004, the last time by nearly three percentage points above his national
average.
Now McCain has been forced to redouble his efforts, expanding the number of offices in the
state.
There are still substantial hurdles for Obama. Evangelicals, at 37 percent of the population, are a
solid base for the Republicans, and in the Democratic primary, Obama lost everywhere but the
two big cities, St. Louis and Kansas City.
He still narrowly won the primary, but general election winners are rarely decided in Missouri's
cities. Rural Missouri, where at least 30 percent of the population lives, and the towns between
Kansas City and St. Louis pose a challenge to Obama.483
Missouri has 5.8 million people and 11 electoral votes. Its moderate size belies its traditional role
in presidential elections. There are ways to win the White House without winning Missouri, but
few candidates have managed it. The state has voted for the victor in 25 of the last 26 elections.
The exception was in 1956, when America went for Dwight Eisenhower, a popular Republican
war hero, in a landslide. Missourians gave it to Adlai Stevenson, a cerebral Democrat from
neighboring Illinois.
Missouri is a miniature America. St Louis, on the Mississippi River, is an eastern city. Kansas
City, a historic cattle town, looks west. In the south the Ozarks tumble Missouri into Arkansas,
and northern Missouri scrapes against the great plains of the Midwest.
The state is also, in some ways, a mirror. It parallels the nation in key categories--about 12%
black, 18% mainline Protestant, a bit more than 10% unionized. In rankings of education, income
and density, it comes in around the middle.
But one big difference marks out Missouri from the rest of the country. It is just 3% Hispanic; the
national number is 15%. The state is becoming older and whiter than America. That trend could
affect this election.
Missouri has been leaning Republican this cycle, until most of the polls in October started to show
a small Obama lead in the state. In 2004 George Bush beat John Kerry by seven points in the
state. Dave Robertson, a political scientist at the University of Missouri, argues that the 2004
results are a bit misleading; Kerry all but abandoned the state in September.
This time, both campaigns are fighting for it. Obama needs to rack up big margins in the urban
centres of St Louis and Kansas City, and should carry smaller cities like Columbia and Jefferson
City. McCain has to counter that with whopping margins in rural counties. Battle will be joined in
the suburbs and the exurbs. The south-western corner of the state may be key. It is Republican
territory, but the Democratic senator Claire McCaskill made an impression two years ago when
she fought "outstate". She nibbled away enough of the incumbent Republican’s margins to win a
closely contested race. 484
172
The race to claim Missouri in the presidential election will likely hinge on two suburban counties St. Louis County and its counterpart across the state, Jackson County.
The importance of the vote in St. Louis and Jackson counties helps explain why they have
received plenty of attention, and visits, from McCain and Obama.
While Obama and McCain each have clear areas of strength in Missouri, there are scattered
counties that are traditional swing areas and where the vote is still up in the air.
St. Louis and Jackson counties, however, have huge blocs of votes - which is why they probably
hold the key to Missouri, breaking the tie expected between urban and rural territories.
For more than a decade, the rule for candidates running statewide in Missouri - whether they're
competing for president, U.S. Senate or governor - has been the same: Voters in urban areas go
for the Democrats, while rural voters back the Republicans.
Despite the presidential campaigns' public disclaimers, that scenario is likely to hold Nov. 4.
There's no question that Obama will carry the cities of St. Louis and Kansas City on Election Day.
The same is true for McCain in rural Missouri, and in Republican-rich southwestern Missouri.
What's up in the air is the size of their victories, by percentage and total number of votes. Both
campaigns need to boost their edge, upping the margins of victory, in their respective areas of
strength.
In 2004, a surge of rural Missouri voters gave Republican George W. Bush his margin of 196,542
votes over Democrat John Kerry. Three-quarters of that edge came from southwestern Missouri.
Southwestern Missouri's 7th Congressional District is seen as the linchpin for any Republican
statewide victory. That territory takes in Springfield - Missouri's third-largest city and the home of
many of the state's largest socially conservative churches - and nearby Branson.
Bush's 145,000-vote victory margin in the 7th District in 2004 is particularly noteworthy because it
represented a 50,000-vote increase compared with his edge in the district four years earlier.
Pollster Del Ali, whose firm Research 2000 has been polling for the Post-Dispatch, believes that
McCain needs to push his turnout in southwestern Missouri above the GOP's record-setting 2004
level to offset an expected huge turnout for Obama in the cities.
McCain's second-most-important voting bloc is fast-growing St. Charles County.
In 2004, St. Charles County increased its Republican margin by 50 percent over the 2000 vote
totals. With the county's population now bigger - it has nearly 345,000 residents - Republicans
hope to gain an even larger edge this year.
Meanwhile, the St. Louis region's 1st Congressional District - which roughly takes in the northern
half of the city of St. Louis and St. Louis County - is equally crucial for Obama.
The district is represented by U.S. Rep. William Lacy Clay, D-St. Louis. He wants to replicate the
huge turnout he helped achieve in February's primary, when Obama narrowly defeated Sen.
Clinton statewide by about 10,000 votes.
Obama outpolled Clinton almost two to one in St. Louis County, with most of that tally coming
from the 1st District.
Underscoring the 1st District's significance on Nov. 4: Obama's state headquarters is in the same
building as Clay's district office.
173
Obama's campaign, however, is not ignoring Missouri's rural areas. Following the advice of
McCaskill, the campaign has scheduled appearances in traditional GOP strongholds, with the
goal of slicing McCain's victory margin.
Republican activists in Missouri and elsewhere privately acknowledge what state Democrats
often say in public: To win the White House, Republican McCain must carry Missouri.
That's particularly true now, analysts say, because Obama appears to be leading in several other
states, notably out West, that had favored Republicans in 2004.
St. Louis County, with more than 700,000 registered voters, has by far the state's largest bloc of
votes. Until 20 years ago, it was deemed Republican country. But now, thanks to changing
demographics, St. Louis County as a whole leans Democratic.
In 2004, Democrat John Kerry garnered almost 55 percent of the county's vote. Obama will
probably need to get a higher percentage this year to offset McCain's strengths elsewhere.
Indeed, a Democrat who carries the state often has St. Louis County to thank. For example,
Claire McCaskill's 50,000-vote margin of victory in her 2006 run for the U.S. Senate came from
the county.
St. Louis County, though, has a diverse population, and Republicans have the upper hand in
some areas. For McCain, the keys are to generate a big turnout in the GOP-leaning outer
suburbs of West County, and competing in South County, which is typically swing territory.
For Obama, the keys are claiming big leads in the central portion of the county and in North
County, which are solidly Democratic, while also competing in South County.
On the other side of the state, Jackson County - which includes Independence, Mo., and other
suburban communities ringing Kansas City - often mirrors a presidential candidate's statewide
percentage.
In 2004, for example, Bush garnered 54 percent of the vote - identical to his statewide margin.
This year, Jackson County - with about 230,000 registered voters - is a toss-up.
With McCain and Obama locked in such a tight race in Missouri, get-out-the-vote efforts will be
critical. 485
For Republicans, the challenge is to shore up McCain’s standing among social conservatives.
McCain struggled in southern Missouri in the primary, but Republicans there seemed to have
warmed toward him over time.486
Southwest Missouri is deeply religious and reliably Republican. Republican McCain still faces a
challenge getting these voters out. He’ll need their passion to counter Missouri’s energized
Democrats in urban areas.487
Obama is working hard to turn out voters as well. Obama has 44 campaign offices in the state.488
Obama’s supporters appear to be very enthusiastic. Obama was in Missouri on Oct. 18 for two
huge rallies in St. Louis and Kansas City. The St. Louis event, on the grounds of the Gateway
Arch, set a campaign record saw an estimated 100,000 people in attendance; the Secret Service
put the figure at more than 80,000.489
174
KANSAS CITY A Democratic stronghold, giving John Kerry a 68,000-vote edge in 2004.
KANSAS CITY SUBURBS Hotly contested - and heavily populated - swing territory that is crucial
for victory.
NORTHERN COUNTIES Farming troubles in the '80s led to population losses and pushed this
former Democratic region to lean Republican in statewide elections.
MID-MISSOURI COUNTIES Includes more mid-size communities than the north, but has also
struggled economically, losing small factories. Outside of Democratic Columbia, the region
strongly favors Republicans.
ST. CHARLES REGION St. Charles and Warren counties are key Republican strongholds.
Franklin and Lincoln are swing territories but have leaned Republican in recent elections.
ST. LOUIS CITY A solid Democratic stronghold; John Kerry had an 88,000-vote edge here in
2004.
ST. LOUIS COUNTY The state's largest source of ballots, with more than 700,000 registered
voters. Its Democratic margin has steadily increased over the past 20 years. Democratic
candidates need high turnout and high vote percentage here.
JEFFERSON and STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTIES Two fast-growing counties that usually lean
Democratic. But in 2004, Bush earned a narrow win in Jefferson and a split decision in Ste.
Genevieve, underscoring his strength statewide.
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES Many voters in this once reliably Democratic area now identify
with neighboring GOP-leaning southern states. The area has Missouri's largest bloc of rural
minorities, who could help put the region in play.
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES This fast-growing region is staunchly Republican and home to
many evangelicals. It includes Springfield and Branson.490
175
Missouri – Governor Race
State Atty. General Jeremiah W. "Jay" Nixon (D)
Born: 02-13-1956, DeSoto
Home: Jefferson City
Education: U of MO, B.S. 1978, J.D. 1981
Religion: Methodist
Marital Status: married (Georgeanne)
Elected office: State Senate 1986-1992, Atty. General of MO, 1992-present.
In 1992, Nixon was elected Attorney General of Missouri, breaking a 24-year Republican lock on
the office.
He has subsequently been re-elected three times to become the longest serving Attorney
491
General in the state’s history.
Nixon was an attorney in private practice before being elected to the Missouri State Senate in
1986.
Prior to becoming Attorney General, Nixon served as a state senator for six years.492
Nixon twice ran and lost for U.S. Senate, in 1986 and 1998.493
Nixon drew criticism when he pushed to end the St. Louis school desegregation case, bemoaned
court delays in executing condemned killers and accused a powerful former House speaker of
illegally using his office to help a casino.494
Nixon began fundraising and preparing for a 2008 gubernatorial run shortly after Republican Gov.
Matt Blunt took office in 2005.495
Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R) - pronounced HULLZ-hoff
Born: 05-22-1958, Sikeston
Home: Columbia
Education: U. of MO, B.S. 1980, U. of MS, J.D. 1983
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: married (Renee)
Professional Career: Asst. Pub. Defender, 32d Judicial Circuit, 1983–86; Asst. Prosecuting Atty.,
Cape Girardeau, 1986–89; Spec. Prosecutor, MO Atty. Gen., 1989–96.
Elected office: House of Reps, 1996-present (6th term up)496
Hulshof grew up on a farm in far southeast Missouri.
In 1989, he became a special prosecutor for the Missouri attorney general’s office and traveled to
53 counties, obtaining 60 violent felony convictions and seven death sentences; he is certified as
a specialist instructor in criminal law.
Hulshof first ran for the House in 1994, losing to incumbent Democratic Harold Volkmer.
Hulshof has been a member of the House since 1997; he has been re-elected 5 times with at
least 59 percent of the vote.
In the House, Hulshof has a voting record near the center of his party.
Hulshof was elected president of the Republican freshman class.
176
The Republican leadership gave him a prized seat on Ways and Means as a freshman and he
used the platform to back repeal of the estate tax, scaling back taxation of dividend and interest
income, and favorable tax treatment of ethanol.
He has played drums in the bipartisan “Second Amendments” band that has entertained troops in
497
Iraq.
Race notes:
498
The race is learning toward Democrat Jay Nixon.
Kenny Holshof and Nixon are running for the office that will be left vacant by retiring Gov. Matt
Blunt (R).
Blunt stunned nearly everyone at the end of January when he announced he would not seek a
second term.
Nixon is running as the candidate who will bring change to the state.
GOP strategists say that the idea that Nixon is an agent of change is laughable given that he has
held office for the last 22 years, compared to Hulshof, who has never held statewide elective
office and who was a public defender and then a prosecutor before winning his seat in Congress
in 1994.
As one strategist put it, Hulshof has a trifecta of problems; he is easily linked to Blunt, can be tied
to an unpopular President, and is a member of a damaged political party in an unpopular
Congress.
Democrats point out that Hulshof has voted with Bush 97 percent of the time.499
Nixon had raised more than $12.15 million for the election through September.
Hulshof had raised $7.1 million through September.
Nixon and Hulshof together raised more than $6.1 million in September.500
Republican Governors Association has invested about $2 million in the race.501
Election Results
Candidate
2004
general
Matt Blunt (R)
1,382,419
51%
Claire McCaskill (D)
1,301,442
48%
35,738
1%
Bob Holden (D)
1,152,752
49%
Jim Talent (R)
1,131,307
48%
62,771
3%
Other
2000
general
Total
Votes
Other
177
th
Missouri 6 District
Sam Graves (R) Incumbent
Born: 11/07/1963, Tarkio, MO
Home: Tarkio
Education: BS University of Missouri - Columbia, 1986
Religion: Baptist
Marital Status: Married (Lesley)
Elected Office: MO House, 1993-94; MO Senate, 1995-2000
Professional Career: Farmer
Sam Graves operates a sixth-generation farm with his father and brother, just outside Tarkio in
Atchison County. He studied agriculture at the University of Missouri, earning his degree in 1986.
He went to work on the Graves Family's farm, working with corn, soybeans, hogs and cattle. In
1991, the Farm Bureau named him the Outstanding Young Farmer in the United States and he
received a similar honor in 1996 from the Missouri Junior Chamber of Commerce.
Graves served in the Missouri House, 1993-95, and Senate, 1995-2000. He was elected to the
U.S. House in 2000.
His brother, Todd, then the Platte County prosecutor, lost the state treasurer's race that year but
won appointment from President Bush to be U.S. attorney, a position he served until March 2006.
Sam Graves and his wife, kindergarten teacher Lesley, have three children.502
Kay Barnes (D)
Born: 03/30/1938, St. Joseph, MO
Home: Kansas City
Education: BA University of Kansas; MPA University of Missouri-Kansas City
Religion: N/A
Marital Status: Widowed
Elected Office: Kansas City Council, 1979-99; Mayor of Kansas City, 1999-2007
Professional Career: Small Business Owner, Public Official
Kay Barnes was born in St. Joseph and she now resides in North Kansas City. She earned a
bachelor's degree in secondary education at the University of Kansas and a master's degree in
secondary education and public administration at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.
Barnes was elected as the first female mayor of Kansas City in 1999 and served two terms, until
2007.
She is a professor of public administration at Park University in Parkville.
Barnes launched her Congressional campaign in May 2007, challenging Graves. She is one of
the best-funded Democratic challengers in the nation.
Barnes is a widow. Her second husband, Frank Barnes, died in 2000. She has two children.503
Race Notes:
Graves is facing a serious and well-funded opponent in Kay Barnes, a former two-term mayor of
Kansas City.
The district includes part of the city but also substantial rural territory.
178
That’s part of why Barnes has frequently invoked her upbringing in St. Joseph, some 50 miles
north of Kansas City. Graves says the challenger has “San Francisco values and big-city mayor
values.”
Barnes has attacked Graves’ “failed policies and record” of the past eight years, a period
coinciding with the Bush administration. That Missouri remains in play in the presidential race
could help Barnes.504
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Sam Graves (R)
Sara Jo Shettles (D)
Other
150,882
62%
$1,215,978
87,477
36%
$130,313
6,436
2%
2006 primary
Sam Graves (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Sam Graves (R)
196,516
64%
$1,741,133
Charlie Broomfield
(D)
106,987
35%
$887,833
4,352
1%
Other
2002 (63%); 2000 (51%)
Missouri 9th District
Judy Baker (D)
Born: 04/10/1960, Columbia, MO
Home: Columbia
Education: BS University of Missouri - Columbia, 1981; MDiv Southern Seminary, 1986; MHA
University of Missouri - Columbia, 2002
Religion: Baptist
Marital status: Married (John)
Elected Office: MO House, 2004-presen
Professional Career: Health Care Consultant
Judith Baker is a native of Columbia. She earned a bachelor's degree in education at the
University of Missouri's flagship campus in her hometown before earning a master's in divinity
from the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Louisville, Ky., in 1986.
Baker returned to Columbia and earned a master's degree in health services administration, later
working as a health care consultant in Atlanta, Ga. and Columbia.
Baker is a partner in CURA Advantage, a Columbia heath care consulting firm, and an adjunct
professor of managerial economics at Columbia College.
Judy Baker is a two-term state representative. She launched her bid for Congress in November
2007 against then incumbent Rep. Kenny Hulshof, a Republican who had represented the Ninth
Congressional District since 1996.
Two months later, Hulshof announced his bid for governor after incumbent Gov. Matt Blunt
announced he would not seek re-election. The open seat created by Hulshof's departure led to
three other Democrats joining Baker in a contested primary.
Baker is married to John Baker, pastor of First Baptist Church in Columbia, where she teaches
Sunday school. The couple has three children.505
179
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)
Born: 05/07/1952, Jefferson City, MO
Home: St. Elizabeth
Education: BA Lincoln Univ., 1974
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Jackie)
Elected Office: St. Elizabeth Trustee, 1978-82; MO House, 1998-2004
Professional Career: Bank Loan Officer, Insurance Agent
Blaine Luetkemeyer was born in the state capital of Jefferson City, and now resides in St.
Elizabeth, near the Lake of the Ozarks. He earned an undergraduate degree in political science
from his hometown Lincoln University, a historically black college.
Luetkemeyer worked six years as a state representative, from 1999 to 2005, and he chaired the
House Republican Caucus. He was appointed state tourism director in October 2006 and spent
two years in that job before deciding to run for Congress.
Luetkemeyer owns an insurance company and is also involved in the family-owned Bank of St.
Elizabeth. He lives on a 160-acre cattle farm with his wife Jackie. The couple has three adult
children.
Luetkemeyer was one of five Republican hopefuls who hoped to succeed incumbent Rep. Kenny
Hulshof in the sprawling 9th Congressional District, which spans 25 Missouri counties, after
Hulshof announced his bid for governor.
Luetkemeyer emerged from the pack with a decisive August primary win, collecting 40 percent of
the votes cast. His closest opponent, State Rep. Bob Onder, earned 29 percent.506
Race Notes:
The seat in the state’s northeast corner is culturally conservative outside of Columbia, site of the
University of Missouri’s flagship campus and the hometown of Democratic nominee Judy Baker, a
state representative.
She’s a slight underdog against Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer, a former state representative.
Hulshof’s campaign for governor is faltering, and Obama has pulled even with McCain in
Missouri, so Luetkemeyer isn’t going to get as much of a lift from the top of the ticket as he might
have anticipated.507
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Kenny Hulshof (R)
Duane Burghard
(D)
Other
Total Votes
149,114
61%
$1,363,653
87,145
36%
$253,380
6,412
3%
2006 primary
Kenny Hulshof (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Kenny Hulshof (R)
193,429
65%
$1,017,285
Linda Jacobsen (D)
101,343
34%
$130,908
4,675
2%
Other
180
New Hampshire
Electoral Votes:
4
Battleground state
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
6:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
6,7,7:30,8 PM ET
Most of the state closes at 7:00PM ET. 1 town closes at 6PM. 3 towns close at 7:30PM. 22 towns
and 1 city close at 8:00PM ET.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
340,511
50.24
Bush
331,237
48.87
Other
5,990
0.88
9,274
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
48.87%
50.24%
2000
48.07%
46.80%
1996
39.37%
49.32%
1992
37.64%
38.86%
1988
62.41%
36.29%
1984
68.64%
30.94%
1980
57.74%
28.35%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Jan. 8
Clinton
39.4%
Obama
36.8%
Edwards
17.1%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Jan. 8
McCain
37.8%
Romney
32.2%
Huckabee
11.5%
Party Breakdown
Governor
John Lynch (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
2
0
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
14
10
0
State House
236
159
5
Voter Registration
Democratic
265,026
Republican
270,958
Other
0
332,684
Total
868,668
As Of
9/9/2008
VEP 2008
1,027,499
VEP Turnout 2004
70.95%
1,315,828
Total population
State Pop. Rank
165,742
12.6%
65 years and over
1,228,435
93.4%
Non-Hispanic White
15,704
1.2%
Black
24,893
1.9%
Asian
32,927
2.5%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Manchester
108,874
Nashua
86,837
Concord
42,392
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
4.1%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$62,369
U.S.
$50,740
181
New Hampshire – Battleground State
New Hampshire, a battleground state in both of the last two presidential election cycles, could
508
shed its identity as the last refuge for Yankee conservatives. The state of 1.3 million people
was once a true Republican stronghold, supporting GOP candidates in every presidential election
509
from the mid-1960s until 1992.
In recent elections, the state has been in play.
The margin in New Hampshire in the last two presidential elections was 1 percentage point. New
Hampshire narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2000 and went just as narrowly for Kerry in
510
2004.
Usually, New Hampshire's star turn comes in snowy January's presidential primary, but this fall
election season, as leaf- peepers clog the roadways gaping at the bronze and gold-washed
mountains, the state finds itself in the political spotlight for the second time in a year.511
Some of the most-recent polls show Obama’s lead in the Granite State being as high as 16
points; other polls show the margin as only a few points. Still, Obama leads in almost every
recent survey.
McCain is behind, perhaps significantly so, in a state that he considers his second political home
and has long been a swing state in the race for the White House.512 It isn't clear if McCain can win
New Hampshire again, but the political math says he really needs New Hampshire’s four electoral
votes.
"If John McCain can't win a state like New Hampshire, there's no way he can win the election,"
said Linda Fowler, a professor of government at Dartmouth College in Hanover. "This state is sort
of made to order for him, and during the primary, people liked the straight talk, even if they didn't
agree with him on the war. It was a real love fest, but that doesn't seem to be happening this
time."
In the 2000 primary, McCain thrashed George W. Bush here by 19 points; earlier this year, he
bested former Romney after the McCain campaign, basically broke, staged scores of town hall
meetings up and down the state.513
New Hampshire is the only state that swung into the Democratic column in 2004 after going for
Bush four years earlier. Kerry's narrow victory--50 percent to 49 percent--came from expanding
his party's margins in its traditional strongholds, such as Stafford County, home of the University
of New Hampshire, but also from picking up two blue-collar counties--Coos on the northern tip of
the state, where paper and pulp manufacturing have been a mainstay of the local economy, and
Sullivan on the state's southwestern border with Vermont, with its old mill towns, Claremont and
Newport.
In 2004, President Bush increased his margins in the state's two most populous counties,
Hillsborough and Rockingham, which include not only Manchester, with ethnic enclaves that have
frustrated Democrats in recent cycles, but also the Boston exurbs along the state's southeastern
border.
In 2006, Democrats swept the entire state, capturing its two congressional seats and taking
control of both chambers of the state Legislature.514
Financial distress in New Hampshire has helped drive voters from McCain to Obama – Obama
was trailing McCain by a few points in September polls.
New Hampshire has been growing steadily more liberal in recent years because of significant
population churn. Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said
nearly one-third of potential voters did not live in the state or were too young to vote in 2000.515
182
While history runs deeply through New Hampshire's quaint villages and rusted mill towns, where
many families go back generations, fewer than 45 percent of the state's residents were born here
-- compared with a national average of 67 percent, making for one of the most mobile populations
in the country. Over the past two decades, high-tech workers have migrated into southern New
Hampshire, and affluent retirees have moved to the recreational or academic centers near the
White Mountains or Hanover.
Indeed, if you're new, chances are you're blue, Smith's study found: 53 percent of new young
voters and 52 percent of new "migrant" voters were more likely to identify with Democrats than
with Republicans, compared with 43 percent of established voters.
The new and the blue are scattered mostly in three areas: along the Massachusetts border, on
New Hampshire's short, crowded seacoast or clustered around Hanover and the Connecticut
River valley. And they've, no doubt, contributed to recent gains made by Democrats -- not only by
occupying the governor's office, but, in 2006, by taking both congressional seats and sweeping
the state House.516
Demographic changes, particularly the migration of educated high-tech workers from
Massachusetts and other states, and the popularity of Democratic Gov. John Lynch, have given
the Democrats a new lease on life in the state.
Obama hopes to take advantage of these Democratic gains. Though Obama was upset by
Clinton in January's primary, he never shut down his operations here -- and has a formidable
organization.517
McCain and Obama have been vying for the state's sizable, volatile population of independent or
"undeclared" voters and are, perhaps, the key to this contest. It's the undeclared who helped
McCain win the 2000 and 2008 primaries.
Given the electorate's three-way split here -- there are 333,000 undeclared voters, 271,000
Republicans and 265,000 Democrats, according to Dante Scala, a political scientist at the
University of New Hampshire -- McCain needs a sizable crossover to the GOP column.
This tax-loathing, government-averse state still has its share of staunch Republicans and
libertarians, tucked away in the isolated hills and valleys, north of the White Mountains, in the
state's lakes region and in its small, livable cities, too.518
Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center, expects the race to boil
down to blue-collar voters in Manchester, a former New England textile city of 107,200 people.
"Whoever wins Manchester probably wins the election in the state," he said.
Fergus Cullen, chairman of the state's Republican Party, said Hillsborough County, which
includes Manchester, will be critical along with Rockingham County that borders Maine to the
northeast and Massachusetts to the south.519
183
New Hampshire – Governor Race
Gov. John Lynch (D) Incumbent
Elected 2004, 2d full term up Jan. 2009
Born: 11-25-1952, Waltham, MA
Home: Hopkinton
Education: U of NH, B.A. 1974, Harvard U., M.B.A. 1979, Georgetown U., J.D. 1984
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: married (Susan)
Professional Career: Ex. Dir., NH Dem. party, 1975-77; Dir. of Admissions, Harvard Bus. School,
1982-86; Partner, consulting firm, 1987-94; Pres. and CEO, Knoll Inc., 1994-2001, Pres., Lynch
520
Group, 2001-04.
John Lynch ran the state Democratic Party in the 1970s, when he was just out of college, and
worked on one of former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen's campaigns.
He resigned as chairman of the state university system trustees to run for governor in 2004, his
first campaign as a candidate.
Lynch, a millionaire businessman-turned-politician, was the first challenger since 1926 to unseat
a freshman governor when he beat Republican Craig Benson in 2004 by promising to replace a
"culture of corruption" with one of integrity and bipartisanship.521
In 2006, Lynch he defeated his Republican opponent by a historic 48-point margin, 74 percent to
26 percent.522
Though he didn't lobby for its passage, Lynch signed a civil union law in 2007 granting the same
privileges and responsibilities of marriage to gays. New Hampshire was the first state to embrace
same-sex unions without a court order or the threat of one.523
State Sen. Joseph Kenney (R)
Born 07-12-1960, Melrose, MA
Home: Wakefield
Education: BA, University of New Hampshire, 1984.
Marital Status: married
Religion: Catholic
Elected Office: Representative, New Hampshire State House of Representatives, 1994-2002;
Senator, New Hampshire State Senate, 2002-present
Professional Career: United States Marine Corps, 1980-present; Intel Analyst, United States
Marine Corps, 1989-1993; Marketing Director, Residential Care Management Company, 19931994; Independent Telecommunications Sales Representative, NCN, 1994-1998; Lieutenant
Colonel, Special Project Officer, United States Marine Corps Reserve, 1997-present; Special
Projects Officer, Intel Analyst, United States Marine Corps Reserve, 1998-2002.
This is Joseph Kenney's first statewide run for office, after serving for 14 years in the New
Hampshire legislature.
He ran unopposed in the GOP primary.
Kenney is a veteran of the Person Gulf War in 1990-1991 and Operation Freedom in Iraq in
2005-2006.
He served in the war while a member of the state Senate.
Kenney's campaign signs tout his motto: Let's Keep New Hampshire New Hampshire.
184
Kenney pledged to veto an income and sales tax -- a pledge his opponent, John Lynch, also has
524
taken.
Race Notes:
525
Incumbent Democratic governor John Lynch is heavily favored to win.
Joseph Kenney, 48, of Wakefield, is trying to block Lynch, a 55-year-old Democrat from
Hopkinton, from winning a third term as governor.
Kenney says the state's character is changing under Lynch, becoming more like Massachusetts.
Lynch, who campaigned four years ago saying he'd run a bipartisan government, says he's
succeeded on that front. He points to the passage of programs aimed at helping the economy,
such as tax credits for research and development costs and new jobs in the North Country, job
training grants and the first steps toward getting small business an affordable health insurance
plan.
As a lawmaker, Kenney has voted for expanded use of the death penalty and a boat speed limit,
and against the smoking ban bill and expanded gambling.
Kenney said he would try to repeal the civil unions bill and the Regional Greenhouse Gas
Initiative, and revise the R&D tax credit to focus on fewer companies.526
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
John Lynch (D)
298,677
74%
Jim Coburn (R)
104,223
26%
2006 primary
John Lynch (D)
Unopposed
2004 general
John Lynch (D)
339,925
51%
Craig Benson (R)
325,614
49%
185
NEW HAMPSHIRE – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. John E. Sununu (R) Incumbent
Born: 09/10/1964; Boston, MA
Home: Waterville Valley
Education: BS Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1986; MS Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, 1987; MBA Harvard University, 1991
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Kitty)
Elected Office: US House, 1997-2002
Professional Career: Engineer, Chief Financial Officer
Sen. Sununu is seeking a second term in the U.S. Senate.
Sununu is the son of a former governor and White House chief of staff.
John Edward Sununu was born in Boston and lives in Waterville Valley, N.H. He graduated from
Salem (N.H.) High School and received bachelor's and master's degrees in mechanical
engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He received a master's degree in
business administration from Harvard University in 1991.
Sununu worked as a design engineer for a microwave electronics manufacturer from 1987 to
1989. He was an operations specialist for high-tech companies from 1990 to 1992.
He was chief financial officer and director of operations of Teletrol Systems from 1993 to 1995.
Sununu also worked as a business analyst for JHS Associates Ltd., a company operated by his
father, John H. Sununu, a former New Hampshire governor and chief of staff to President George
H.W. Bush.527
Sununu first ran for public office in 1996. He won election in New Hampshire’s First
Congressional District and serving three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives.
During his six years in the House of Representatives, Sununu rose to become Vice-Chairman of
the Budget Committee.528
Sununu defeated former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen to win election to the U.S. Senate in 2002.
Sununu has stood up to his party at times. He was one of a handful of Republicans who sided
with Democrats to delay renewal of the Patriot Act over concerns about civil liberties, and later
crafted the compromise that allowed the act's reauthorization.
He opposed two energy bills in 2003 and 2005, was the first Republican in Congress to call for
Attorney General Alberto Gonzales' dismissal.
In 2006, he was one of seven Senate Republicans - five from New England - who voted to kill a
constitutional amendment that would have banned gay marriage. Sununu argued states should
decide the issue.
Sununu and his wife, Kitty, have two children.529
186
Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Born: January 28, 1947; St. Charles, Missouri.
Home: Madbury, New Hampshire
Education: University of Mississippi, M.S.S. (1973); Shippensburg University, B.A. (1969)
Marital status: Married (Bill)
Elected Office: Democratic nominee for N.H. Senate, 1978; N.H. Senate, 1991-97; governor,
1997-present
Professional Career: Campaign manager; teacher
Born in St. Charles, Missouri in 1947, Jeanne Shaheen currently resides in Madbury, N.H.
She received a bachelor's degree from Shippensburg University and a master's degree in political
science from the University of Mississippi. In 1973, she moved to New Hampshire, where she
became a schoolteacher and ran a small business with her husband.
After managing the New Hampshire presidential campaigns of Jimmy Carter and then Gary Hart,
Shaheen's own career in elective office began in 1990, when she was elected to the state
Senate.
She served three two-year terms in the state Senate before becoming the first woman elected
governor in New Hampshire in 1996.
Shaheen served three terms as governor before running unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 2002,
losing to then- U.S. Rep. John Sununu.
She served as the national chairwoman of John Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign.
She also served as the director of Harvard's Institute of Politics at the John F. Kennedy School of
Government. Shaheen gave up her post at Harvard in September 2007 to start her campaign.
Shaheen and her husband, Bill, have three daughters.530
Race Notes:
This November will make the second general election match up between incumbent Sununu and
former Gov. Shaheen.531 Sununu beat Shaheen by only 20,000 votes, or less than 5 percent, in
2002.532
Shaheen, who lost to Sununu in the 2002 Senate race, began campaigning early for the current
seat and was shown to top Sununu in a majority of polls throughout 2008. This time, Sununu is
defending a seat widely seen as one of the nation's most vulnerable.
A state political climate that favors Democrats is working against Sununu, who has taken pains to
distance himself from his party’s leadership. Sununu’s incumbency status, war chest, and even
his famous last name failed to afford him a clear lead in the highly competitive election against
Shaheen.533
Both candidates made the economy a central campaign theme in a state where the cost of home
heating oil can become a big issue as winter approaches.534 Sununu sought to seize the energy
issue by portraying Shaheen and Democrats as obstacles to increased domestic oil drilling.
Shaheen accuses Sununu of endorsing Bush's economic policies, favoring big oil companies
over the middle class, seeking to cut Medicare benefits for the elderly, opposing tax credits for
renewable energy and blindly supporting the war in Iraq.535
Sununu is emphasizing achievements in the Senate that he says show how he stood up to the
536
Bush administration, including his fight for changes to the Patriot Act to protect privacy rights.
187
In the Oct. 21 debate, Shaheen argued that Sununu's record of backing President Bush's
economic policies contributed to the financial crisis and that his continued support of the Iraq war
shows questionable judgment.
Sununu argued that by initially supporting the war and Bush's tax cuts, Shaheen has shown a
willingness to shift her positions for political gain. He cited her opposition to the financial industry
537
bailout Congress recently passed as another example.
Political analysts in the state say that in large part because of the economic circumstances, the
538
race seems Shaheen’s to lose -- a stark contrast from 2002.
New Hampshire is trending Democratic, and Sununu must have been a little alarmed when the
state’s two Republican Congressmen lost their re-election bids in 2006 and the Legislature went
539
Democratic for the first time in decades.
The state Republican Party has struggled since Sununu's last race in 2002, when an effort by
party operatives to jam Democratic phone lines and disrupt get-out-the-vote efforts led to
convictions of four men on federal charges and left the state party virtually broke under a pile of
legal bills.
In Oct., the Univ.of NH released a study of the state's demographics, showing substantial gains
among Democrats and independents who identify themselves more closely with the Democrats.
About one-quarter of the electorate -- nearly 250,000 voters -- has changed since Sununu and
Shaheen first ran against each other in 2002. In 2002, when President Bush was still popular,
Republicans had an 11-percentage-point advantage among registered voters and Sununu won by
slightly more than 4 percent. This year, registered voters are split evenly, the presidential race is
expected to generate record turnout and many voters say they cannot wait to usher Bush out.540
Shaheen and Sununu will face a third candidate in the general election race, Libertarian Ken
Blevens.541
Analysis:
No state in the nation has moved so quickly from Republican to Democratic in party orientation.
This is a state that intensely dislikes both President Bush and the Iraq War, and the feeling
showed from top to bottom of the state's 2006 elections.
It is worth stressing that Sununu has been a strong closer in past elections and he is very well
funded. Also, Senator John McCain is New Hampshire's kind of Republican, and the state
rescued McCain's candidacy from oblivion in January.
McCain's nomination was the best news Sununu could have hoped for. Most of the other
presidential Republicans were sure losers in this state. Here is a contest where the incumbent
senator's fate is closely tied to McCain's.
Should McCain do well and generate some coattail, Sununu might survive. But this looks like
Shaheen's race to win or lose, and right now she's on track to avenge her 2002 loss.542
Analysis by
New Hampshire
Race Rating
Toss Up
Leans Democratic (Pick-up)
Leans Democrat
Likely Takeover
188
Pollster
Recent Poll Results
N/Pop Sununu Shaheen Blevens Other Undecided Margin
Dates
10/23/08
700
LV
46
52
-
1
2
+6D
10/1719/08
600
LV
43
50
2
-
5
+7D
ARG
10/6-8/08
600
LV
42
51
-
-
7
+9D
SurveyUSA
10/4-5/08
647
LV
40
48
7
-
4
+8D
Rasmussen
10/1/08
700
LV
45
50
-
1
3
+5D
Saint
Anselm/SRBI
9/2530/08
823
LV
35
49
1
-
15
+14D
Research 2000
9/2224/08
600
LV
41
50
2
-
7
+9D
StrategicVision (R)
9/2224/08
800
LV
45
47
-
-
8
+2D
Suffolk
9/2024/08
600
LV
40
41
3
-
13
+1D
9/23/08
700
LV
52
45
-
1
2
+7R
9/1822/08
403
RV
39
48
-
-
11
+9D
Rasmussen
Research 2000
Rasmussen
Allstate/National
Journal
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
2002 general John Sununu (R)
227,229
51%
$3,545,925
Jeanne Shaheen
(D)
207,478
47%
$5,821,219
12,428
3%
81,920
53%
68,608
45%
2,694
2%
1996 general Bob Smith (R)
242,257
49%
$1,929,468
Dick Swett (D)
227,355
46%
$1,558,563
22,261
5%
Other
2002 primary John Sununu (R)
Bob Smith (R)
Other
Ken Blevens (Lib)
Prior winning
percentages:
2000 House (53%); 1998 House (67%);
1996 House (50%)
189
New Hampshire 1st District
Carol Shea-Porter (D) Incumbent
Born: 12/02/1952, New York, NY
Home: Rochester
Education: BA University of New Hampshire, 1975; MPA University of New Hampshire, 1979
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Gene)
Professional Career: Social worker
Carol Shea-Porter was born in New York and lives in Rochester. A privacy advocate, she
declined to provide The Associated Press with her exact date of birth.
She earned bachelor's and master's degrees from the University of New Hampshire.
Her husband was in the Army and the family lived in Colorado, Louisiana, Maryland and New
Hampshire.
Shea-Porter is a former social worker, community college instructor, volunteer and activist.
Shea-Porter became more active in politics after the family moved to New Hampshire. She was a
paid staffer in Gen. Wesley Clark's 2004 presidential campaign in New Hampshire, then
volunteered on John Kerry's campaign. She also was a volunteer for America Coming Together.
She is chairwoman of the Rochester Democratic Committee.
In 2005, Shea-Porter attended a presidential event in Portsmouth and wore a T-shirt that read
"Turn your back on Bush." She was removed.
She and her husband, Gene, have a son and daughter.
In her first run at public office, Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, a community activist with little money
and recognition, relied on a network of volunteers and a strong anti-Iraq message to pull an upset
victory over incumbent Jeb Bradley in 2006.
Since then, Shea-Porter, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, has been a very
vocal opponent of the Bush administration's policies in Iraq.543
Jeb Bradley (R)
Born: 10/20/1952, Rumford, ME
Home: Wolfeboro
Education: BA Tufts Univ., 1974
Marital status: Married (Barbara)
Elected Office: NH House, 1990-2002; US House, 2002-06
Professional Career: Small Business Owner
Jeb Bradley was born in Rumford, Maine, and grew up in Wolfeboro, where he still lives. He
earned a degree in sociology from Tufts University in 1974 and lived in Switzerland, where he
worked as a magician. Bradley owned and operated a health food store with his wife before
selling it in 1997. He also ran a painting business. Most recently, he managed real estate.
He was elected to the town planning board in 1986 and three years later was named to the
budget committee. He was a registered Democrat until 1989, when he switched to the GOP. He
won a seat in the New Hampshire House the next year and was re-elected five times.
190
Bradley won a seat in the U.S. House in 2002 when Rep. John E. Sununu moved to the Senate
and was re-elected in 2004 before losing to Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in 2006. Bradley is now
544
facing an Election Day rematch with Shea-Porter. He and his wife, Barbara, have four children.
Race Notes:
Republicans were caught napping in 2006 but say former Rep. Bradley will avenge his loss to
Shea-Porter in November.545
Shea-Porter remains firmly linked to the liberal activist wing of her party, which makes her highly
vulnerable in her rematch against Bradley, a GOP centrist who held the seat for three terms
before losing in one of the biggest House upsets of 2006. Bradley retains strong name
identification and support within the Republican-tilting district, which takes in Manchester and the
state’s eastern half. The two are financially comparable, and both parties are focused on the race
546
in part because they’re also both contesting the state at the presidential level.
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
2006 primary
Carol Shea-Porter
100,691
51%
$291,663
Jeb Bradley (R)
95,527
49%
$1,062,132
Carol Shea-Porter
(D)
12,497
54%
James Craig (D)
7,944
34%
Gary Dodds (D)
1,125
5%
Peter Sullivan (D)
1,021
4%
563
2%
Jeb Bradley (R)
204,836
63%
$1,055,083
Justin Nadeau (D)
118,226
37%
$530,364
Other
2004 general
Total Votes
191
192
New Jersey
Electoral Votes:
15
First Polls Open:
6:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
1,911,430
52.92%
Bush
1,670,003
46.24%
Other
30,258
0.84%
241,427
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
46.24%
52.92%
2000
40.29%
56.13%
1996
35.86%
53.72%
1992
40.58%
42.95%
1988
56.24%
42.60%
1984
60.09%
39.20%
1980
51.97%
38.56%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Clinton
53.8%
Obama
43.9%
Edwards
1.4%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
McCain
55.4%
Romney
28.4%
Huckabee
8.2%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Jon Corzine (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
7
6
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
23
17
0
State House
48
32
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
1,737,588
Republican
1,043,672
Other
2,044
2,344,485
Total
5,127,790
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
5,982,164
VEP Turnout 2004
64.54%
8,685,920
Total population
11
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
1,134,636
13.1%
65 years and over
5,399,954
62.2%
Non-Hispanic White
1,260,339
14.5%
Black
651,787
7.5%
Asian
1,382,031
15.9%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Newark
280,135
Jersey City
242,389
Patterson
146,545
Rate
Rate Rank
8th highest in U.S.
State Rate
5.8%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$67,035
U.S.
$50,740
193
NEW JERSEY – U.S. Senate Race
Frank Lautenberg (D) Incumbent
Born: January 23, 1924, Paterson, NJ
Home: Secaucus, NJ
Education: BS, Economics, Columbia University School of Business, 1949
Religion: Jewish
Marital status: Married (Bonnie)
Elected Office: Senator, United States Senate, 1982-2000, 2002-present.
Professional Career: Commissioner, New York/New Jersey Port Authority, 1978-1982;
Chairman/Chief Executive Officer, Automatic Data Processing, 1952-1982; Commissioner, New
Jersey Economic Development Authority.
Frank R. Lautenberg was born in Paterson, N.J., and resides in Cliffside Park, N.J. Lautenberg
served in the Army Signal Corps during World War II and in 1949 received a bachelor's degree in
economics from Columbia University on the G.I Bill.
He started Automatic Data Processing, one of the world's largest payroll services companies, in
1952 and was ADP's chief executive officer and chairman of the board.
Lautenberg was elected to the Senate in 1982 after serving four years on the board of the Port
Authority of New York and New Jersey.
He was re-elected in 1988 and 1994.
Lautenberg is probably most identified nationally as the senator who wrote the law to ban
smoking on domestic airline flights.
Lautenberg retired after completing his third term in 2000, but made a dramatic return to politics
as a last-minute, party-selected fill-in for Sen. Robert Torricelli, who dropped his bid for a second
term in 2002 in the wake of an ethics investigation.
In April 2004, following Republican criticism of presidential candidate John Kerry's war record,
Lautenberg called Vice President Dick Cheney the "lead chickenhawk."547
After the 2006 elections, Lautenberg won a seat on the Appropriations Committee after giving up
his seat on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee; He is running again in
2008.548
Lautenberg married again in 2004 and has four grown children from his first marriage.549
Richard A. Zimmer (R)
Born: August 16, 1944, in Newark
Home: Flemington, NJ
Education: Yale University, BA Political Science; Yale University, LLB Law
Religion: Jewish
Marital status: Married (Mary Goodspeed)
Elected Office: New Jersey Assembly, 1982-1987; New Jersey Senate, 1987-1991; Republican
Nominee for New Jersey Assembly, 1979.
Professional Career:
Project Vote Smart: Richard 'Dick' Zimmer; accessed October 17, 2008
Zimmer, a former state congressman, is making his second bid to return to elected politics in a
dozen years.
194
Richard A. "Dick" Zimmer was born in Newark, N.J. He lives on a farm in Delaware Township,
Hunterdon County. He earned degrees in political science and law from Yale. Zimmer is a former
550
Washington lawyer and lobbyist.
In 1981, Zimmer began his political career with a successful run for the New Jersey state House
of Representatives.
He served in the state House until 1987, when he won a special election to replace the late state
Sen. Walter Foran.
In 1990, Zimmer stepped onto the national political scene with a successful run for the U.S.
House of Representatives.
He served New Jersey’s 12th congressional district for three terms, earning a reputation as a
strong fiscal conservative.
He was re-elected in 1992 and 1994, and stepped down in 1996 to make a bid for an open
Senate seat, ultimately losing that race to Democrat Robert Torricelli.
After leaving Congress, Zimmer signed on with the Philadelphia-based law firm of Dechert Price
& Rhoads.
He ran for his old House seat in 2000 against Democratic Rep. Rush Holt, but lost that race by
1,101 votes.
In 2001, he joined Gibson Dunn & Crutcher as a member of the Public Policy Practice Group.551
He and his wife Marfy, have two adult children.552
Race Notes:
Lautenberg is seeking second full term since returning in 2002. A new term would be his fifth
overall.
Lautenberg is well-positioned to win re-election this fall after surviving a June 3 primary challenge
from Democratic Rep. Robert E. Andrews .
In that race, Lautenberg, 84, fended off attacks he is “too old to serve” and proved his statewide
power.
Zimmer faces long odds in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972.
Lautenberg, is well-known, well-funded, and has a long history of service in New Jersey.553
He has maintained a strong lead in the polls that has only grown larger in recent weeks.
Zimmer is a self-described proud fiscal conservative but is more moderate on social issues, like
abortion.
He says he is an alternative for New Jerseyans weary of the Iraq war and wary of self-serving
politicians like former Newark Mayor Sharpe James, who recently was found guilty on corruption
charges.554
Lautenberg points out how he's opposed the Bush Administration -- a popular tactic in a state in
which the outgoing president suffers from low poll ratings.
Zimmer has tried to paint the difference between him and Lautenberg on fiscal issues.555
195
Zimmer has blamed Lautenberg for high gas prices, the nation's financial crisis and the fact NJ
ranks 50th in how much federal money it receives in proportion to the tax dollars it sends to
Washington.
Zimmer said he would end earmarks and advance the state's interests by reforming spending
formulas and tax provisions -- notably the alternative minimum tax -- that penalize the Garden
State.
Lautenberg makes no apologies for getting earmarks for New Jersey, to the tune of half a billion
dollars in the current federal budget year.556
Zimmer headed into the final weeks of the campaign with less than half the money available to
Lautenberg.
Zimmer had $435,362 cash on hand at the start of October, compared with Lautenberg's
$921,574. Lautenberg raised $526,367 during the quarter than ended Sept. 30. Zimmer raised
$343,492 in contributions during the same time period and also lent his campaign $250,000.
Lautenberg had lent his campaign $1.65 million for his primary race against Rep. Andrews (D-1st
Dist.) and Morristown Mayor Donald Cresitello. Lautenberg has not made additional loans for the
general election.557
Analysis by
New Jersey
Race Rating
Solid D
Safe Democratic
Democrat Favored
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
Total Votes
Frank Lautenberg
(D)
1,138,193
Douglas Forrester
(R)
928,439
Other
1996 general
54%
$2,929,206
44% $10,606,843
45,972
2%
Robert G. Torricelli
(D)
1,519,154
53%
$9,134,854
Dick Zimmer (R)
1,227,351
43%
$8,238,181
136,961
5%
Other
Prior winning
percentages:
1994 (50%); 1988 (54%); 1982 (51%)
New Jersey 3rd District
John Adler (D)
Born: 08/23/1959, Philadelphia, PA
Home: Haddonfield
Education: AB Harvard College; JD Harvard College
Religion: N/A
Marital status: Married (Shelley)
196
Elected Office: Cherry Hill Twp. Council, 1988-89; NJ Senate, 1991-present
John Adler, 48, was born in Philadelphia and currently lives in Cherry Hill, N.J. When he was in
high school, his father died of a heart attack and his mother turned to Social Security to keep the
family afloat.
Despite the tough times, Adler worked his way through Harvard and eventually earned a law
degree.
He returned to the area where he grew up, practicing law in Cherry Hill.
He got involved in politics, winning a spot on Cherry Hill's township council in 1987. In 1991, he
defeated an incumbent Republican to win his state Senate seat. He boasts he was the only
558
Democrat to do so that year.
Adler is now serving in his fifth term as a State Senator.
559
Adler sponsored New Jersey's 2006 law prohibiting smoking in indoor public places and
workplaces. He was also the sponsor of a law toughening car emission standards in the state.
He and his wife, Shelley, have four children.560
Christopher Myers (R)
Born: 12/02/1965, Riverside, NJ
Home: Medford
Education: BA University of Colorado, 1988; MPA Cornell University, 1996
Religion: Episcopal
Marital status: Married (Tiffany)
Elected Office: Medford Town Council, 2001-present
Professional Career: Business Executive
Chris Myers, 42, was born in Riverside, N.J. and currently lives in Medford, N.J. He is a Navy
combat veteran who served during the first Gulf War and is now a vice president at defense
contractor Lockheed Martin Corp.
He's been on the Medford township council since 2002, serving as mayor in 2004 and 2008.
Myers says he's running because Congress needs more veterans and more business people
among its ranks.561
Myers headed up Lockheed Martin's renewable energy division in North America, focusing on
solar power generation.562
Myers is a strong advocate of renewable energy as a way to reduce U.S. oil dependence.563
He and his wife, Tiffany, have two children.564
Race Notes:
Competitive demographics combined with Saxton’s decision to retire have boosted Democratic
state Sen. John H. Adler’s odds.
Adler was his party’s consensus choice from the start and built a 4-to-1 cash advantage for the
campaign’s final push.
Republican Chris Myers, the mayor of Medford, had to endure a difficult primary. But his Navy
background and career at Lockheed Martin Corp. offer him a potential boost in this south-central
565
swing district, which narrowly favored President Bush in 2004.
197
566
Adler is a veritable fundraising machine. Adler has a significant money advantage so far
against Myers. He believes his experience as a state lawmaker and the overall political mood will
carry him through.
Adler is running in a district that has long been in Republican hands. Rep. Saxton has held the
seat for nearly 24 years.567
Myers likes to describe himself as a successful businessman who will bring valuable experience
to the U.S. House. He's tried to paint Adler as being part of the Democratic establishment in
Trenton. He was critical about Adler's vote in favor of the new state budget, which cut aids to
568
local municipalities in a state where the property taxes are the nation's highest.
National Democrats have poured money into the Adler campaign, believing the seat is winnable.
The 3rd District is home to several large military bases and both Adler and Myers, a veteran of
569
the first Gulf War, support better benefits for veterans.
Only Cherry Hill overlaps both Adler's state Senate district and the congressional district he
seeks, making him a new political figure to voters in Burlington and Ocean Counties.570
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Jim Saxton (R)
122,559
58%
$1,314,846
Rich Sexton (D)
86,113
41%
$161,186
1,179
1%
Other
2006 primary
Jim Saxton (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Jim Saxton (R)
195,938
63%
$919,338
Herb Conaway (D)
107,034
35%
$42,334
5,890
2%
Other
New Jersey 7th District
Linda Stender (D)
Born: 07/25/1951, Plainfield, NJ.
Home: Fanwood, NJ
Education: BA American University, 1973
Marital Status: Married (Richard)
Elected Office: Fanwood Borough Council, 1988-90; Mayor of Fanwood, 1992-95; Union County
Freeholder, 1994-2001; NJ Assembly, 2002-present
Linda Stender, 56, is a native of Union County, where she is a longtime local officeholder. She
was mayor of her hometown of Fanwood from 1992 to 1995 and a Union County freeholder from
1994 to 2000.
Stender has been in the state Assembly since 2002.571 Stender is serving her fourth term in the
New Jersey General Assembly representing the 22nd Legislative District.572
Stender was a chief sponsor of New Jersey's Global Warming Response Act of 2007, which
requires the state to reduce global warming gases to 1990 levels by 2020, and to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 2006 levels by 2050.
198
This is Linda Stender's second run for the 7th District seat. She nearly beat incumbent Rep. Mike
573
574
Ferguson in 2006. In 2006, Stender came within 1% of defeating Ferguson. This time
around, Ferguson is retiring.
Stender lives in Fanwood with her husband, Richard, and has three adult children.
575
Leonard Lance (R)
Born: 06/25/1952, Easton, PA
Home: Flemington, NJ
Education: BA Lehigh University; JD Vanderbilt University; MPA Princeton University
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Heidi)
Elected Office: NJ Assembly, 1991-2001; NJ Senate, 2001-present
Leonard Lance, 56, is a third-generation New Jersey legislator whose family has been in
Hunterdon County since Colonial times. Both Lance's great uncle, H. Kiefer Lance, and his father,
Wesley L. Lance, were legislators. Lance himself has been a lawmaker since 1991.
From 2004 to 2007, Lance was the minority leader in the state Senate. He distinguished himself
as a fiscal watchdog hounding the Democratic majority, going as far as to take former Gov.
James E. McGreevey to court to stop the state from borrowing money to balance the budget.
Lance was a law clerk to two sitting Warren County court judges in the 1970s and assistant
counsel for Gov. Thomas H. Kean in the 1980s.
Lance lives in Clinton with his wife, Heidi A. Rohrbach.576
Race Notes:
Stender, a fourth-term state legislator, came within 3,000 votes of winning last time and never
really stopped campaigning in this swath of New York’s outer suburbs.
The GOP nominee, state Sen. Leonard Lance, believes his fiscally conservative record will make
him the preferred choice in territory that tilts to his party.
But Stender’s district-wide profile and her support from the national party and EMILY’s List point
to a difficult seat for Republicans to hold.577
Ferguson had blanketed the airwaves with ads featuring the tag "Stender is a spender," claiming
that in a state with the nation's highest property taxes, Stender had supported tax hikes while
serving in local government offices and later as a state assemblywoman.578
President Bush visited NJ to raise funds for Lance.579
The 7th District House seat has been in Republican hands for more than thirty years.580
The 7th Congressional District Lance is better known in the western end of the district, Stender is
better known in the east.
Political analysts say that "It's a tight race. It's neck and neck, and the top of the ticket is going to
determine the congressional race."581
199
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Michael Ferguson
(R)
98,399
49%
$3,043,589
Linda Stender (D)
95,454
48%
$1,932,510
5,222
3%
Other
2006 primary
Michael Ferguson
(R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Michael Ferguson
(R)
162,597
57%
$2,847,822
Steve Brozak (D)
119,081
42%
$792,575
4,169
1%
Other
200
Oklahoma
Electoral Votes:
7
First Polls Open:
8:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
959,792
65.57%
Kerry
503,966
34.43%
Other
0
0
455,826
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
65.57%
34.43%
2000
60.31%
38.43%
1996
48.26%
40.45%
1992
42.65%
34.02%
1988
57.93%
41.28%
1984
68.61%
30.67%
1980
60.50%
34.97%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Clinton
54.8%
Obama
31.2%
Edwards
10.2%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
McCain
36.6%
Huckabee
33.4%
Romney
24.8%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Brad Henry (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
1
4
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
24
24
0
State House
44
57
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
1,044,096
Republican
828,108
Other
0
231,755
Total
2,103,959
As Of
9/30/08
VEP 2008
2,649,951
VEP Turnout 2004
58.66%
3,617,316
Total population
28
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
480,140
13.3%
65 years and over
2,597,918
71.8%
Non-Hispanic White
286,849
7.9%
Black
62,597
1.7%
Asian
261,635
7.2%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Oklahoma City
547,274
Tulsa
384,037
Norman
106,707
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
3.8%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$41,567
U.S.
$50,740
201
OKLAHOMA – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. James M. Inhofe, (R) Incumbent
Born: November 17, 1934; Des Moines, Iowa
Home: Tulsa, OK
Education: U. of Tulsa, B.A. 1973
Marital status: Married (Kay)
Elected Office: Okla. House, 1967-69; Okla. Senate, 1969-77; Republican nominee for governor,
1974; Republican nominee for U.S. House, 1976; mayor of Tulsa, 1978-84; defeated for reelection as mayor of Tulsa, 1984; U.S. House, 1987-94; U.S. Senate, 1994-present.
Professional Career: Real estate developer; insurance executive
James Mountain Inhofe was born in Des Moines, Iowa, and has been a longtime resident of
Tulsa, Okla., where he received a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Tulsa in
1973.
He served in the Army from 1954 to 1956. He was a businessman, serving as president of
Quaker Life Insurance Co.
He was elected to the Oklahoma House in 1966, serving from 1967 to 1969.
He won the Republican nomination for governor in 1974, but lost in the general election.
He has been a fixture in Oklahoma politics for more than four decades, serving in the Oklahoma
Legislature, as Tulsa mayor, in the U.S. House and the Senate.
Inhofe was first elected to the Senate in 1994 to complete the unexpired term of Senator David
Boren who resigned to become president of the University of Oklahoma.
He was re-elected in 1996 and again in 2002.
He is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, where he continues to play a
leadership role on defense and national security issues.582
Inhofe is widely known for his opposition to global warming.583
He and his wife, Kay Kirkpatrick, have four children.584
State Sen. Andrew Rice (D)
Born: April 23rd, 1973, Oklahoma City, OK
Home: Oklahoma City, OK
Education: Colby College (Maine), Bachelor’s Degree, 1996; and Harvard University Divinity
School, Master’s Degree, 1999
Religion:
Marital status: Married (Apple Newman)
Elected Office: Senator, Oklahoma State Senate, 2006-present
Professional Career:
Rice, 35, has been a state senator from District 46, which covers portions of Oklahoma City,
since 2006.585
Andrew Monroe Rice was born and lives in Oklahoma City. He received his bachelor's degree in
religious studies from Colby College in Maine in 1996 and his master's in theological studies from
Harvard Divinity School in 1999.
202
Rice is in the second year of his first four-year term in the Oklahoma Senate. He was elected in
586
2006, his first bid for public office.
His state Senate district is comprised of inner city neighborhoods in Oklahoma City.587
As a lawmaker, Rice has focused mainly on health issues and was cosponsor of a bill to increase
access to health care by children.
Rice said after his brother, David, was killed in the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001, he
decided to devote his life to public policy issues.
He was working in New York as a documentary film maker at the time of his brother's death.
588
In 2003 he returned to Oklahoma and founded the Progressive Alliance Foundation, an
organization created to press for fairness and equity in public policy.
Rice became involved with organizations of families who lost loved ones in the attacks,
advocated for the creation of the 9/11 Commission, and has spoken against the U.S. war in Iraq.
Rice worked at the Texas Faith Network, organizing religious leaders to advocate for progressive
and moderate policies.589
He is married to Dr. Apple Newman White. They have two sons.590
Race Notes:
Most political handicappers give a big edge to Inhofe to retain the seat he’s held since 1994.591
Rice is a young state senator with one legislative session of political experience under his belt.592
Rice is trailing in the polls by double digits.
Oklahomans are fond of electing moderate and conservative Democrats to state office — witness
well-liked two-term Gov. Brad Henry (D). But for federal office, the Sooner State has a penchant
for Republicans, who better reflect the state’s conservative political leanings on visceral cultural
and economic issues that factor heavily into House and Senate races.
That’s one big reason Inhofe is in such good shape against Rice.
Rice, whose brother was killed in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, is young and energetic and
has a compelling story.
He has raised a decent amount of money and is waging an aggressive media campaign that is
attempting to paint the incumbent as past his prime and out of touch.
Unfortunately for Rice, it’s he who is generally out of touch with Oklahoma voters — at least on
the issues that tend to motivate whom they support for federal office.
Rice’s long-shot campaign was helped when Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.), a big fan of his, decided to unload some of the DSCC’s vast
resources into Oklahoma’s relatively inexpensive media markets.593
Less than a month before Election Day, the race started to focus more on the troubled economy
—a topic on the minds of many Oklahomans.594
Inhofe said that if elected, he would focus on improving the economy, increasing border security,
developing a national energy policy with a focus on expanded oil and gas exploration, and
595
improving access to affordable health care.
203
Inhofe cited his experience, before Congress and after, as why he should be elected.
596
Rice said that if elected, he would concentrate on developing alternative energy sources,
providing affordable health care and strengthening U.S. policy to prevent another situation similar
to the Iraq war.
Rice said his experience in Oklahoma’s split-party Senate makes him the best candidate for the
597
job. Oklahoma’s Senate this year was equally divided between Republicans and Democrats.
Rice favors abortion rights and civil unions for gay and lesbian couples.
Rice opposes the war, saying that al-Qaida and religious extremism was the real threat to
598
national security; Inhofe is one of the most outspoken supporters of the war.
Inhofe’s conservative rhetoric, including pushback against those promoting global warming as an
599
urgent issue, has been popular in this conservative state.
Analysis by
Oklahoma
Race Rating
Likely R
Safe Republican
Republican Favored
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002
general
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
James Inhofe
(R)
583,579
57%
$3,040,220
David Walters
(D)
369,789
36%
$2,072,137
65,056
6%
James Germalic
(I)
2002
primary
James Inhofe
(R)
Unopposed
1996
general
James Inhofe
(R)
670,610
57%
$2,510,946
James Boren (D)
474,162
40%
$301,621
38,378
3%
Other
Prior winning
percentages:
1994 (55%); 1992 House (53%); 1990
House (56%); 1988 House (53%); 1986
House (55%)
204
Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes:
21
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Battleground state
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
2,938,095
50.92
Bush
2,793,847
48.42
Other
37,648
0.65
144,248
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
48.42%
50.92%
2000
46.43%
50.60%
1996
39.97%
49.17%
1992
36.13%
45.15%
1988
50.70%
48.39%
1984
53.34%
45.99%
1980
49.59%
42.48%
Democrats
Primary Date:
April 22
Clinton
54.6%
Obama
45.4%
Edwards
N/A
Republicans
Primary Date:
April 22
McCain
72.9%
Paul
15.8%
Huckabee
11.3%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Ed Rendell (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
11
8
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
21
29
0
State House
102
101
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
4,357,663
Republican
3,207,728
Other
562,554
420,635
Total
8,548,580
As Of
9/29/2008
VEP 2008
9,580,541
VEP Turnout 2004
62.22%
12,432,792
Total population
6
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
1,889,660
15.2%
65 years and over
10,168,238 81.8%
White alone
1,338,477
10.8%
Black
299,510
2.4%
Asian
556,132
4.5%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Philadelphia
1,449,634
Pittsburgh
311,218
Allentown
107,117
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
5.7%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$48,576
U.S.
$50,740
205
Pennsylvania – Battleground State
Most of the 2008 battlegrounds are red states, states won by President Bush four years ago. But
even with Obama’s strong lead in Pennsylvania polls, McCain hasn’t given up on the state.
Pennsylvania is the only big state that voted Democratic in 2004 that McCain is still devoting
serious resources to. The airwaves are crackling with political ads (the campaigns have spent a
combined $27m on them since mid-June). Big supporters drop in almost every day.600
Philadelphia is one of the only major cities in the country where McCain’s advertising campaign is
anywhere near as voluminous as that of Obama’s. But even there, he lags nonetheless.601
Obama and McCain both started out the final full week of the campaign in Pennsylvania. Obama
spoke in Pittsburgh on Monday and in Chester on Tuesday. McCain attended a rally at the
Pottsville School District in eastern Pennsylvania on Monday and he was headed to Hershey on
602
Tuesday.
The McCain campaign insists that they are still competitive in Pennsylvania, despite a variety of
polls showing a double-digit deficit that has failed to yield to an extensive commitment of personal
campaign time from the Republican nominee.603
McCain’s strategists insisted that the state and its 21 electoral votes were within reach and crucial
to what they acknowledge is an increasingly narrow path to victory. They said in late October that
their own polls show McCain only seven or eight percentage points behind Obama. (The state
polls that show Obama with a double-digit lead, all conducted in recent weeks, include surveys by
Marist, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and The Allentown Morning Call.)604
Most of the polls showing a strong, double-digit lead for Obama haven’t weakened significantly
for weeks. The lack of traction for the GOP ticket raises the question of whether they wouldn't be
better off spending the dwindling amount of campaign time they have on states in which they are
more competitive. "They don't have much choice," said Terry Madonna, the director of the
Franklin and Marshall College poll.
Obama is leading a number of states carried by Bush in 2004. McCain needs to make up the
difference somewhere. He hopes to make up for some of those lost electoral votes with a win in
Pennsylvania.605
Former Gov. Tom Ridge, a close friend and political ally of McCain, said McCain must win
Pennsylvania to win the election. "Candidly, unless we win Pennsylvania, I don't think he's
elected president," Ridge said. "We have to win Pennsylvania."
McCain will do well in Western Pennsylvania, "where there are a lot of independent-thinking and voting Democrats," Ridge said. McCain also will do well in the "T," the nickname for the state's
north-south midsection and broader northern areas that are mostly small towns and rural
stretches.
Ridge said the Scranton area has a lot of "Reagan Democrats," people registered as Democrats
who have conservative social and fiscal values espoused by Republican former President Ronald
Reagan.606
Jim Lee, the Susquehanna Poll's director, called the southeastern corner of the state the "tail that
wags the dog," because Philadelphia and the surrounding area typically accounts for one in three
Pennsylvania votes and Obama enjoys a healthy advantage in polling there.607
McCain hopes that he can turn out enough Republicans and conservatives in small town
Pennsylvania--particularly in the grim middle of the state--to offset Obama’s advantage in the big
cities. The state’s two biggest cities--Philadelphia and Pittsburgh--are rich in highly-motivated
608
blacks.
206
Heavily Democratic Pittsburgh and Philadelphia will side with Obama, Ridge agrees. But the four
large, suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia will be, perhaps, the key battleground.
Traditionally Republicans did well in Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and Delaware counties, but
those areas have been trending more Democratic in recent years, so that is a major challenge for
609
McCain, Ridge said.
Both campaigns think the race will be decided in the four "collar counties" around Philadelphia. Of
them, Bucks (pop. 625,000) is a microcosm of the state. Rural northern "upper Bucks" is socially
conservative, clinging -- as Obama famously said this year -- to guns and religion; the center
around Doylestown is fiscally conservative and socially liberal, once dominated by Republican
"moderates"; and "lower" Bucks around Bristol is blue-collar, formerly industrial, depressed, and
tends to vote Democratic.
The "maverick" McCain was supposed to play well with the independents and middle-of-the-road
Democrats and Republicans in places like Bucks County. Clinton beat Obama by 34 points here,
and carried 60 of Pennsylvania's 67 counties. President Bush did miserably in the Philly suburbs
in 2004, yet lost the state by a mere 2.5 points. To make this state red, the McCain camp figured:
Start with the suburbs.
It hasn't gone McCain's way. As Wall Street tumbled, Obama’s lead expanded. The one available
poll on suburban Philadelphia showed the Democrat up comfortably in all four counties.
The political winds were changing before the Obama juggernaut came along. Within living
memory, the "collar" counties were rock-solid Republican. No more. In 2006, Chester elected its
first Democrat to Congress in 82 years, and Democrats are gaining strength in Delaware County.
In the past year Montgomery and Bucks counties flipped, with registered Democrats now
outnumbering Republicans.
You see the consequences first at the local level. Five years ago in Doylestown, the mayor and
all nine borough councilmen were Republicans. Now the mayor and six councilmen are
Democrats. A watershed came in the 2006 elections when Patrick Murphy, who served in Iraq,
ended a decade-long reign of moderate Republicans in the 8th Congressional district, which
covers all of Bucks County.610
A GOP presidential candidate hasn't won in Pennsylvania since 1988.611 However, the
Democrats’ margin of victory has shrunk relentlessly from nine points in 1992 to four in 2000 to
2.5% in 2004. Pennsylvania’s population is older than the American average, and more likely to
be found in rural areas and small towns.612
Obama has had a lot of trouble connecting with working-class Pennsylvania. He lost the state to
Clinton by nine points. He was ill at ease in the state’s bars and bowling alleys. His problems in
Pennsylvania inspired his famous remarks about "bitter" voters clinging to their guns and
religion.613
If McCain is to close the gap with Obama he will need to win more votes in Western
Pennsylvania. A recent Susquehanna Poll shows McCain might not be making up enough
ground. Jim Lee, the poll's director, called Western Pennsylvania "fertile ground" for McCain
because of a concentration of socially conservative, blue-collar workers who heavily supported
Clinton in the Democratic primary. "There's some room for growth in that area, but I don't know if
it'll be enough" for McCain, Lee said.
Rep. John Murtha, a Democrat from Johnstown, struck a nerve when he recently called residents
of Western Pennsylvania racist and "rednecks." The remarks prompted McCain this week to
declare the area "the most patriotic, most God-loving, most patriotic part of America."614
207
Fulton County provided Bush with his biggest victory in Pennsylvania four years ago and has
615
voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964.
McCain expects to run better than Bush in Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County—which Kerry carried by
97,000 votes in 2004—and in southwestern Pennsylvania, where Obama lost to Clinton by
616
landslide margins.
McCain has trailed in surveys of Allegheny County, but the surrounding communities of
southwestern Pennsylvania represent one of his strongest areas in the state. While counties such
as Washington, Beaver and Westmoreland retain Democratic registration edges, they include
many Democrats who are conservative on social issues and whose votes have gone to
617
Republican candidates in national and statewide elections over the last decade.
“Democrats who do well in areas like Johnstown, Wilkes-Barre and Pittsburgh are pro-life, progun Democrats like Bob Casey. The Democrats who seem to do poorly in those areas tend to be
pro-choice and questionable on guns,” said John Brabender, a Republican political consultant
based in Pittsburgh. “I think people are going to be shocked by how well McCain is going to do on
the western side and in the center part of the state.”
While Democrats acknowledge western Pennsylvania is highly competitive, they remain confident
that Obama will carry the state in the end.
“Pennsylvania will be won or lost for Barack Obama in the Philly suburbs,” said state Rep. Josh
Shapiro of suburban Philadelphia’s Montgomery County, the third-largest county in the state after
Philadelphia and Allegheny counties. “I anticipate the race will be close and in single digits but I
also anticipate that Barack Obama will prevail.”618
The McCain campaign is not limiting its reach to the western part of the state. Republicans hope
that Clinton's 9-point primary win means that Obama is vulnerable across the state, from
Pittsburgh to Harrisburg to Scranton. But polls show that McCain is not making inroads in many
key areas.619
“How do you flip 140,000 votes? You start by cutting in places like Lackawanna and Luzerne
counties,” a McCain campaign source told Politico, referring to Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, the
traditionally conservative Democratic population hubs of northeastern Pennsylvania.
McCain also must run well in Lancaster and York counties in central Pennsylvania, two
Republican strongholds that have received attention from both McCain and Palin.
McCain also needs to boost his margins in the state’s Republican “T”, a region which begins at
the Maryland state line and runs north through the center of the state before expanding to include
the northern tier of counties that border New York.620
The chances of an upset look slimmer by the day. The state’s Democratic machine, which backed
Clinton during the primary, is now in Obama overdrive. The governor, Ed Rendell, is popular and
wily. Bob Casey, the state’s junior senator and a pro-life Catholic, is preaching the Obama
religion to small-town voters. The Democrats also have a majority in both the state House and the
state’s House delegation in Washington, DC.
Obama has also invested a lot of resources in shoring up the state. Biden is a native of Scranton.
The Obama campaign also scheduled prime-time speaking slots for both Rendell and Casey at
their convention.
The long-drawn-out primary fight also helped Obama. McCain ignored the state during the
Republican primary because he already had the nomination sewn up. Obama spent 18 days
there, fighting for every vote. The intense battle produced a surge in Democratic Party
registrations: the Democrats now have an advantage over the Republicans of almost 1.2 million
208
compared with 500,000 in 2004. And the pro-Democratic trend seems to have continued since
the primary: in Allegheny County, in the south-west, 28,000 new Democrats have registered to
621
vote since then compared with 6,000 Republicans.
Statewide, Democrats have registered over 200,000 voters since June 1. This election "saw the
622
biggest switch ever" from one party to another in Pennsylvania, says pollster Michael Young.
Obama also has an overwhelming advantage with his ground game. The Obama campaign has
not just been content to produce huge turnouts in the big cities. It is fighting for every vote.
Obama has 81 field offices across the state, many in places where Democrats have never
623
competed before, compared with McCain’s three dozen.
Pennsylvania 3
rd
District
Phil English (R) Incumbent
Born: 06/20/1956, Erie, PA
Home: Erie
Education: BA University of Pennsylvania, 1979
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Chris)
Elected Office: Erie City Controller, 1986-9
Professional Career: Legislative Aide
Phil English defeated Democrat Steven Porter in the 2006 U.S. House race with 54 percent of the
vote. In 2004, he was re-elected with 60 percent of the vote.
English, a seven-term member, was elected to the U.S. House in 1994 with 49 percent of the
vote, defeating Democrat Bill Leavens and independent candidate Arthur Drew.
He was elected Erie (Pa.) city controller in 1985, but did not seek re-election. He unsuccessfully
ran in 1988 against Democrat Catherine Baker Knoll for state treasurer.
Kathy Dahlkemper (D)
Born: 12/10/1957, Erie, PA
Home: Erie
Education: BS Edinboro University, 1982
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Dan)
Kathy Dahlkemper announced her candidacy for the U.S. House on Oct. 24, 2007.
She won a four-way Democratic primary with 43.9 percent of the vote.
This is Dahlkemper's first run for office.
Race Notes:
English had a subpar showing last time, but he has only recently emerged among this year’s
most endangered GOP incumbents. Democrats have a political environment as favorable as
2006 and a much better candidate in businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper. She’s focused on
economic recovery, and her anti-abortion stance, while at odds with most Democrats, is a winner
in the socially conservative, Erie-based district. Democrats link English to Bush’s economic
policies, and Republicans scoff at some of Dahlkemper’s ideas on energy policy.624
209
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
108,525
54%
$1,390,914
Steven Porter (D)
85,110
42%
$233,034
Timothy Hagberg
(CNP)
8,706
4%
2006 general Phil English (R)
2006 primary Phil English (R)
Unopposed
2004 general Phil English (R)
166,580
60%
$1,595,195
110,684
40%
$224,002
Steven Porter (D)
2002 (78%); 2000 (61%); 1998 (63%);
1996 (51%); 1994 (49%)
Pennsylvania 4th District
Jason Altmire (D) Incumbent
Born: 03/07/1968, Kittanning, PA
Home: McCandless
Education: BS Florida State University, 1990; MA George Washington University, 1998
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Kelly)
Professional Career: Healthcare Executive
Jason Altmire grew up in Lower Burrell, Pa., before graduating from Florida State University with
a bachelor's degree in political science.
After college, he was a legislative assistant in the Washington, D.C., office of U.S. Rep. Pete
Peterson of Florida. In 1993, Altmire was appointed to a working group for then-President
Clinton's Task Force on National Health Care Reform.
After eight years in Washington, he joined the Federation of American Hospitals. He returned to
western Pennsylvania in 1998 to work at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center where he
oversaw UPMC's Office of Charitable Giving. He also represented UPMC in discussions with
government officials and local community organizations.
Altmire resigned as UPMC's acting vice president for government relations and community health
services to run for Congress.
He pulled off a surprise upset against incumbent Republican Rep. Melissa Hart by promising to
reform Congress and by painting Hart as closely aligned with President Bush and U.S. Sen. Rick
Santorum, who also lost his bid for re-election.
Altmire and his wife, Kelly, have two children.625
Melissa Hart (R)
Born: 04/04/1962, Pittsburgh, PA
Home: Bradford Woods
Education: BA Washington and Jefferson College, 1984; JD University of Pittsburgh, 1987
Religion: Catholic
Elected Office: PA Senate, 1991-2000; US House, 2000-06
210
Melissa Hart was born in Pittsburgh and grew up there and in the surrounding area. She currently
lives in Bradford Woods, Pa. After graduating from Washington and Jefferson College and The
University of Pittsburgh School of Law, where she was active in campus politics, she practiced
corporate law for three years.
She made her first run for office in 1990, when she defeated an incumbent to win a seat in the
state Senate.
She was re-elected twice and first won election to the U.S. House in 2000. She lost her seat in
2006.
Melissa Hart was the first woman elected to Congress from Pennsylvania. She ran a traditionally
conservative campaign focusing on lower taxes and calls for reducing the size and scope of
government. She had a largely conservative voting record in office. In 2006, Democrats
successfully associated her with President Bush and then-Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum,
who were both unpopular in the state. Her loss to Jason Altmire was a surprise to many political
observers.
She is single.
Race Notes:
Altmire faces the Republican he unseated in 2006, Melissa Hart.626
Surveys show Altmire with a more comfortable advantage than in his first race against Hart in the
Pittsburgh suburbs. Hart, who held the seat for eight years, has been campaigning on her
opposition to tax increases and linking Altmire to more liberal Democratic leaders. But the
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has endorsed Altmire as a “hard-working centrist, always attentive to his
constituents’ wishes and unusually effective for a freshman congressman.”627
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
2006 primary
2004 general
Total Votes
Jason Altmire (D)
131,847
52%
$1,091,584
Melissa Hart (R)
122,049
48%
$2,235,952
Jason Altmire (D)
32,322
55%
Georgia Berner (D)
26,596
45%
Melissa Hart (R)
204,329
63%
$1,368,946
Stevan Drobac (D)
116,303
36%
$14,082
3,285
1%
Other
Christopher Carney (D), Incumbent
Born: 03/02/1959, Cedar Rapids, IA
Home: Dimock
Education: BS Cornell College, 1981; MA University of Wyoming, 1983; PhD University of
Nebraska, 1993
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Jennifer)
Professional Career: Professor
211
Christopher "Chris" Carney grew up near Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and lives in Dimock, Pa. He
received a bachelor's degree from Cornell College in Iowa in 1981 and received a doctorate from
the University of Nebraska in 1992.
Carney and his family moved to northeastern Pennsylvania that same year after he was offered a
teaching job at Penn State University, where he is an associate professor of political science.
Carney enlisted in the Navy Reserve in 1995, rising to the rank of lieutenant commander. He has
served multiple tours overseas. After Sept. 11, Carney also served as a civilian adviser to the
Defense Department on intelligence and terrorism issues.
Chris Carney, a little-known Democrat and political science professor, defeated incumbent Rep.
Don Sherwood in one of the electoral surprises of 2006.
Carney and his wife, Jennifer, have five children.
628
Chris Hackett (R)
Born: 1/24/1963, Philadelphia
Home: Dallas
Education: BA Wittenberg University, 1985
Religion: Methodist
Marital status: Married (Ramah)
Professional Career: Accountant, Businessman
Christopher Lawrence Hackett, 45, was born in Philadelphia and currently resides in Shavertown,
Pa. He graduated from Wittenberg University with a business degree and became a certified
public accountant in Washington, D.C. He moved to northeastern Pennsylvania in 1990 and
purchased SHS TechStaffing, a professional recruiting and temporary staffing business. He
changed the name to OneSource Staffing Solutions and expanded the business to include a
human resources consultancy and insurance brokerage.
Hackett and his wife, Ramah, have four daughters.
After a successful and lucrative career in business, Hackett said he got into politics because
Washington is "terribly broken." He said the GOP lost its way earlier this decade as congressional
Republicans "became big spenders and big taxers," and paid the price in 2006 by losing control
of the House and Senate.
Hackett, a conservative who has loaned his campaign hundreds of thousands of dollars, said he
will work to eliminate "ridiculous pork projects," reduce taxes and regulations, drastically shrink
the size of the federal government.629
Race Notes:
Incumbent Sherwood’s sex scandal propelled Carney two years ago, though the Democrat
brought some of his military-related talents to bear, and it would be a mistake to call him an
accidental congressman. Republican Chris Hackett, who runs a human resources firm, is
emphasizing his social issue and economic conservatism and accuses Carney of voting too
frequently with more liberal party leaders. This is one of the most heavily Republican districts held
by a Democrat, so Carney is bracing for a close race.630
Republicans think they should retake the seat, in a district that Bush won by 20 points. But
Hackett had to undergo a nasty primary.631
212
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
2006 primary
Total Votes
Christopher Carney
(D)
110,115
53%
$1,530,004
Don Sherwood (R)
97,862
47%
$2,334,743
$904,949
Christopher Carney
(D)
Unopposed
2004 general Don Sherwood (R)
191,967
93%
Veronica Hannevig
(CNP)
14,805
7%
th
Pennsylvania 11 District
Paul Kanjorski (D) Incumbent
Born: 04/02/1937, Nanticoke, PA
Home: Nanticoke, PA
Education: Temple U., 1957-61, Dickinson Law School, 1962-65
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Nancy)
Professional Career: Practicing atty., 1966–85; Nanticoke City Solicitor, 1969–81; Admin. Law
Judge, 1971–80.
Congressman Kanjorski is a 12-term incumbent.632
Paul E. Kanjorski was born in Nanticoke, Pa., and resides there. He graduated from the U.S.
Capitol Page School in Washington, D.C., in 1954. He attended Wyoming Seminary in Kingston,
Pa., Temple University, and Dickinson Law School in Carlisle, Pa.
Kanjorski joined the Army Reserves in 1960 and was called to active duty in 1961. He was
admitted to the Pennsylvania bar in 1966 and practiced law. He was a workers' compensation
referee from 1972 to 1980.
Kanjorski was first elected to the U.S. House in 1984. Kanjorski first won a seat in the House by
overpowering a freshman incumbent congressman in the 1984 Democratic primary.
Though he represents a Democratic-leaning district, Kanjorski faced a scare in 2002 when
Republicans seized on questions about whether he improperly used his influence to funnel
millions of dollars in federal funds to companies owned by his daughter and four nephews,
questions that triggered an FBI inquiry. But Kanjorski stoutly denied any wrongdoing and won
with 56 percent of the vote.
His opponent in 2002, Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta, is seeking a general-election rematch this
year.633
Kanjorski chairs the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, which oversees
securities exchanges and insurance.634
He and his wife, Nancy, have one child.635
213
Louis Barletta (R)
Born: 01/28/1956, Hazleton, PA
Home: Hazleton, PA
Education: Bloomsburg University
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Mary Grace)
Elected Office: Hazleton City Council, 1998-2000; Mayor of Hazleton, 2000-present
Louis J. Barletta, 52, was born and raised in Hazleton and became its mayor in 2000. He
attended Bloomsburg State but left early to pursue a professional baseball career. When that
didn't work out, Barletta returned to Hazleton and started a pavement-marking business that
became the largest of its kind in Pennsylvania. He entered politics a decade ago and has held
elective office since 1999.
Barletta gained nationwide fame in 2006 after pushing through one of the toughest crackdowns
on illegal immigrants anywhere in the United States. Dozens of towns followed Hazleton's lead
and passed their own ordinances targeting illegal immigrants, and Barletta became a regular on
cable TV and talk radio, advocating his view that local governments can't wait for federal action to
do something about the problem.
A federal judge struck down Hazleton's law as unconstitutional last year; the city has appealed
the ruling.
Barletta ran against incumbent Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski in 2002 and lost by more than 13
percentage points, but he said his elevated political profile has put him in a better position to win
in 2008.
Illegal immigration is a signature campaign issue, of course, as Barletta pushes secure borders,
penalties for companies that hire illegal immigrants and other measures.
Barletta and his wife, MaryGrace, have four daughters.
Race Notes:
Only one of Kanjorski’s past 12 campaigns was remotely close, when Republican Mayor Lou
Barletta of Hazleton lost by 13 percentage points in 2002. He’s running again, and a lot has
changed.
Barletta is nationally known for his efforts to curb illegal immigration. Kanjorski has made some
missteps, including saying his own party “sort of stretched the facts” on how quickly it could
change course in Iraq.
Republicans are calling attention to Kanjorski’s large campaign contributions from the financial
industry and his chairmanship of the panel that oversees Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.636
Barletta's local crackdown on illegal immigration has raised his profile, making him a national
hero among those seeking tighter borders, but Kanjorski has tried to stake his own claim on the
issue. Kanjorski sent a mailer to constituents last fall describing himself as "tough on illegal
immigration," and told an audience in the Pocono Mountains that "closing the border is
practical."637
Barletta is continuing to use the immigration issue in his congressional campaign.638
Kanjorski has been dogged by questions about his use of congressional earmarks.639
214
Election Results
Candidate
2006
general
Paul Kanjorski (D)
Joseph Leonardi
(R)
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
134,340
72%
$652,549
51,033
28%
$9,882
$378,979
2006
primary
Paul Kanjorski (D)
Unopposed
2004
general
Paul Kanjorski (D)
171,147
94%
Kenneth
Brenneman (CNP)
10,105
6%
2002 (56%); 2000 (66%); 1998 (67%);
1996 (68%); 1994 (67%); 1992 (67%);
1990 (100%); 1988 (100%); 1986 (71%);
1984 (59%)
John Murtha (D) Incumbent
Born: 06/17/1932, New Martinsville, WV
Home: Johnstown
Education: BA University of Pittsburgh, 1962
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Joyce)
Elected Office: PA House, 1969-74
Professional Career: Small Business Owner; Military: USMC, 1952-55, 1966-67; USMCR, 195566, 1967-90
Murtha grew up in the Johnstown area, attended Washington and Jefferson College, then in 1952
enlisted in the Marine Corps; he became a drill instructor at Parris Island and was selected for
officer candidate school in Quantico.
He graduated from the University of Pittsburgh and re-enlisted in the Marines in 1966, at 34 and
served in Vietnam. For his service there he was awarded the Bronze Star, two Purple Hearts and
the Vietnamese Cross for Gallantry.
Murtha was first elected in a February 1974 special election that signaled the political weakness
of Richard Nixon; he was the first Vietnam veteran elected to Congress.
Murtha is a member of the Appropriations Committee and chairman of the Defense
Appropriations Subcommittee, his party’s key man on the defense budget.
In June 2006 Murtha announced that he would run against Hoyer for majority leader. Murtha lost
to Hoyer on the secret ballot 149–86.640
215
William Russell (R)
Born: 4/22/1963; Stevenville, Newfoundland
Home: Johnstown
Education: BA Louisiana State University, 1985
Marital status: Married (Kasia)
Professional Career: Military: USA Lt. Col. (ret.)
William Russell is a retired Army lieutenant colonel.641
This is William Russell's first run for office.
Russell left the Army two years short of retirement and moved from the Washington region to
Johnstown, Pa., to challenge Murtha. But he had some early problems in his race.
In February, a state judge ruled he did not collect enough signatures to make the ballot. Russell
blamed bad weather and other factors. He later received enough write-in votes in the April
primary to get his name on the ballot for the November election.642
Race Notes:
Russell is in an uphill fight to unseat Murtha, a decorated Vietnam veteran who has been one of
his party's most outspoken critics of the Iraq war, and is well-known, as a top member of the
House Appropriations Committee, for his ability to bring home millions of dollars of federal money
for pet projects.
Murtha may recently have made Russell's job easier by telling the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that,
"There is no question that western Pennsylvania is a racist area." He said some voters were
reluctant to vote for Obama because of his race.
House Democrats' campaign arm has purchased TV ads in an eleventh-hour bid to defend Rep.
John Murtha of Pennsylvania, one of their most powerful members, against an unexpectedly
intense re-election challenge.
Republicans, seeing an exceedingly rare opportunity to oust a Democrat in a year when they are
bracing for the loss of 20 or more House seats, also plan to spend some of their limited resources
in a late effort to topple Murtha.
The National Republican Congressional Committee will spend $84,000 on an ad that quotes
Murtha's recent remarks calling his district racist -- as well as past statements about U.S. military
personnel killing innocent civilians in Iraq -- and ends with the word, "Enough."
The latest Democratic ad ties Russell to President Bush, whose approval ratings are at record
lows, saying the Republican "supports George Bush's failed economic policies," among others.643
216
Election Results
Candidate
2006
general
John Murtha (D)
Diana Irey (R)
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
123,472
61%
$3,254,226
79,612
39%
$852,811
2006
primary
John Murtha (D)
Unopposed
2004
general
John Murtha (D)
Unopposed
$1,559,185
2002 (73%); 2000 (71%); 1998 (68%);
1996 (70%); 1994 (69%); 1992 (100%);
1990 (62%); 1988 (100%); 1986 (67%);
1984 (69%); 1982 (61%); 1980 (59%);
1978 (69%); 1976 (68%); 1974 (58%);
1974 (50%)
217
218
Tennessee
Electoral Votes:
11
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
All counties close at 8:00PM ET.
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
1,384,375
56.80%
Kerry
1,036,477
42.53%
Other
16,467
0.67%
347,898
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
56.80%
42.53%
2000
51.15%
47.28%
1996
45.59%
48.00%
1992
42.43%
47.08%
1988
57.89%
41.55%
1984
57.84%
41.57%
1980
48.70%
48.41%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Clinton
53.8%
Obama
40.5%
Edwards
4.5%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Huckabee
34.5%
McCain
31.8%
Romney
23.6%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Phil Bredesen (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
5
4
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
16
16
1
State House
53
46
0
8:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
3,909,923
As Of
10/3/2008
VEP 2008
4,689,216
VEP Turnout 2004
57.04%
6,156,719
Total population
17
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
793,117
12.9%
65 years and over
4,755,464
77.2%
Non-Hispanic White
1,039,321
16.9%
Black
81,677
1.3%
Asian
215,439
3.5%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Memphis
674,028
Nashville
590,807
Knoxville
183,546
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
7.2%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$42,367
U.S.
$50,740
219
TENNESSEE – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Lamar Alexander (R), Incumbent
Born: 07-03-1940, Maryville
Home: Nashville
Education: Vanderbilt U., B.A. 1962, N.Y.U., J.D. 1965
Marital Status: married (Honey)
Elected Office: TN Governor, 1978-86.
Professional Career: Pres., Univ. of TN, 1988-91; U.S. Edu. Sect., 1991-93; Co-director,
Empower America, 1994-95; Prof., Harvard U. JFK Schl. of Govt., 2001-02.
Sen. Alexander is seeking a second term in the Senate.
Andrew Lamar Alexander Jr. was born in Maryville, Tenn., and lives in Nashville. He graduated
from Vanderbilt University and New York University School of Law. He practiced law briefly
before joining Howard Baker's 1966 Senate campaign and following Baker to Washington as a
legislative aide.
Alexander worked as a congressional liaison in the Nixon White House but left before Watergate
and returned to Tennessee.
In 1974, he ran for governor but lost to Democrat Ray Blanton. Four years later he mounted a
1,000-mile campaign walk across the state in which a red-and-black flannel shirt became his
trademark and defeated Democratic nominee Jake Butcher.
He was sworn in three days early to prevent Blanton from selling pardons for cash, and was reelected four years later as the first Tennessee governor to win successive terms.
He was president of the University of Tennessee from 1988 to 1990.
He was U.S. education secretary from 1990 to 1993.
He ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination in 1996 and 2000.
Alexander had announced his retirement from politics after the 2000 presidential campaign, but
he said he was drawn back to help President Bush fight the war on terrorism.
When former Sen. Fred Thompson decided to retire from the Senate in 2002, Republicans
recruited Lamar Alexander to run for his seat.644
Alexander spent much of his first four years in the Senate in the shadow of Bill Frist, his senior
colleague from Tennessee and the Senate Majority Leader. Frist retired at the end of 2006 and
Alexander ran for Whip, but lost the race to Sen. Trent Lott.
In the leadership shuffle that occurred in the wake of Lott’s resignation at the end of last year,
Alexander ran for and was elected chairman of the Republican Conference.645
Alexander and his wife, Leslee "Honey," have four children.646
220
Robert Tuke (D)
Born: December 5, 1947; Rochester, NY
Home: Nashville, Tenn.
Education: BA, University of Virginia; JD (Law), Vanderbilt University , 1976
Religion: Not Stated
Occupation(s): Attorney
Military: USMC, 1969-73
Bob Tuke was born in Rochester, N.Y. and currently lives in Nashville, Tenn. He received his
bachelor's degree from the University of Virginia and his law degree from Vanderbilt University.
Tuke is a former captain in the Marines who fought in Vietnam. He later settled in Nashville after
graduating from law school in 1976.
He led an effort in the 1990s to rewrite Tennessee's adoption laws, and helped defend the new
rules against legal challenges in the state Supreme Court.
Tuke served a term as chairman of the state Democratic Party from 2005 to 2007.
647
This is Tuke's first campaign for elected office.
He had toyed with entering the Senate race before first saying he wouldn't run. He later changed
his mind and became a candidate in March 2008.648
Bob Tuke emphasizes his military experience as Marine officer during the Vietnam war while
declaring the country's role in Iraq as misguided and arguing for a heightened role in Afghanistan.
Tuke and his wife, Susan, have two adopted children.649
Race Notes:
Despite the presence of several competent Democrats in the state, it’s hard to see Alexander
sweating his re-election race.
Alexander had a lead of 28 points in a mid-October poll.
Tuke is a legitimate challenger, but he did himself no favors by starting so late.650
Alexander has political experience to spare as an eight-year governor, U.S. Education secretary
and two-time presidential hopeful, so he was ready to run for his second Senate term.
Democrats in the state have shown some signs of a comeback after years of setbacks, and they
had hoped that former state party chairman Tuke would complicate Alexander’s bid, but
Alexander should win with a solid margin.651
Alexander has an overwhelming fundraising advantage over Tuke.
Tuke has tried to paint Alexander as too closely aligned with the unpopular Bush administration
and as out of touch with Tennessee voters. But his attempts to draw contrasts between himself
and Alexander have been dampened by less campaign money.
The $820,000 Alexander raised in the third quarter alone was more that Tuke has collected for
his entire campaign.
Tuke's campaign hasn't been able to find the same kind of traction as fellow Democrats
challenging incumbent Republican senators in neighboring Kentucky, North Carolina and even
Georgia.
221
But that hasn't stopped Alexander from pouring on a statewide advertising campaign that dubs
him Tennessee's senior statesman and emphasizes that the senator "doesn't really care if you're
a Republican or a Democrat."
Alexander campaign manager Tom Ingram told reporters that the Tuke campaign's attempts to
set up a radio debate between the two candidates came too late for the senator to accommodate.
Tuke, 60, calls the $700 billion bailout of financial institutions "Wall Street welfare." Alexander,
who voted for the rescue package, argued it was necessary to ease a credit crunch that
threatened the availability of mortgages and car loans.
Tuke, a who was a Marine officer in the Vietnam war, said the U.S. has no reason to preside over
a civil war and "it is time to bring a responsible end to our involvement in the war in Iraq."
Alexander said he supported the so-called surge in U.S. forces "so that we could make progress
in Iraq and Afghanistan, move our military from a combat position to a support role without
deadlines for withdrawal, and begin bringing our troops home."
Both candidates favor developing more alternative and domestic energy sources, though
Alexander places more emphasis on drilling off the U.S. coast than Tuke does.
Alexander opposes abortion rights, while Tuke supports keeping the current abortion laws on the
books. Both want to encourage more adoptions as an alternative to abortions.
The candidates both oppose same-sex marriage.652
Analysis by
Tennessee
Race Rating
Solid R
Safe Republican
Republican Favored
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
2002 primary
Lamar Alexander
(R)
891,420
54%
$3,761,804
Bob Clement (D)
728,295
44%
$2,832,990
Lamar Alexander
(R)
295,052
54%
Ed Bryant (R)
233,678
43%
19,752
3%
1,091,554
61%
$3,469,369
654,937
37%
$795,969
32,173
2%
Other
1996 general
Total Votes
Fred D. Thompson
(R)
Houston Gordon (D)
Other
222
Arkansas
Electoral Votes:
6
First Polls Open:
8:30 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
572,898
54.31
Kerry
469,953
44.55
Other
12,094
1.15
102,945
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
54.31%
44.55%
2000
51.31%
45.86%
1996
36.80%
53.74%
1992
35.48%
53.21%
1988
56.37%
42.19%
1984
60.47%
38.29%
1980
48.13%
47.52%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Clinton
70.1%
Obama
26.2%
Edwards
1.9%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Huckabee
60.5%
McCain
20.2%
Romney
13.5%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Mike Beebe (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
3
1
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
27
8
0
State House
75
25
0
8:30 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
1,642,813
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
2,080,359
VEP Turnout 2004
54.65%
2,834,797
Total population
32
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
397,108
14.0%
65 years and over
2,153,812
76.0%
Non-Hispanic White
448,230
15.8%
Black
30,413
1.1%
Asian
150,270
5.3%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Little Rock
187,452
Fort Smith
84,375
Fayetteville
72,208
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
4.9%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$38,134
U.S.
$50,740
223
Proposed Initiative Act No. 1. Adoption. Prohibits persons cohabiting outside marriage
from adopting.
A proposed act providing that a minor may not be adopted or placed in a foster home if the
individual seeking to adopt or to serve as a foster parent is cohabiting with a sexual partner
outside of a marriage which is valid under the constitution and laws of this state; stating that the
foregoing prohibition applies equally to cohabiting opposite-sex and same-sex individuals; stating
that the act will not affect the guardianship of minors; defining “minor” to mean an individual under
the age of eighteen (18) years; stating that the public policy of the state is to favor marriage, as
defined by the constitution and laws of this state, over unmarried cohabitation with regard to
adoption and foster care; finding and declaring on behalf of the people of the state that it is in the
best interest of children in need of adoption or foster care to be reared in homes in which
adoptive or foster parents are not cohabiting outside of marriage; providing that the Director of the
Department of Human Services shall promulgate regulations consistent with the act; and
providing that the act applies prospectively beginning on January 1, 2009. (For, Against)
ARKANSAS – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Mark Pryor (D) Incumbent
Born: 01-10-1963, Fayetteville
Home: Little Rock
Education: U. of AR, B.A. 1985, J.D. 1988
Religion: Christian
Marital Status: married (Jill)
Elected Office: AR House of Reps., 1990-94; AR Atty. Gen., 1998-02
Professional Career: Practicing atty., 1988-96.
Mark Lunsford Pryor was born in Fayetteville, Ark., and attended public schools in both Arkansas
and the Washington, D.C., area. He earned his bachelor's degree in history at the University of
Arkansas, and later a law degree there.
Pryor's family has a tradition of political involvement. His father, David, was Arkansas' governor
from 1975 to 1979, and then was a U.S. senator for 18 years before retiring in 1997.
Mark Pryor worked in private practice at the Wright, Lindsey and Jennings law firm in Little Rock
for eight years. He was elected to the state House of Representatives in 1990 and served two
terms.
He was elected Arkansas' attorney general in 1998 and to the Senate in 2002.
The Pryor name is well-known in Arkansas politics. Mark Pryor's biggest advantage in running for
the U.S. Senate was being the son of David Pryor, who was Arkansas' governor and a longtime
senator. The elder Pryor retired in 1997; the younger one won the seat in 2002.
He and his wife, Jill, have two children.653
Rebekah Kennedy (Green Party)
Born: January 1, Heber Springs AR
Home: Quitman
Education: Law (JD), University of Arkansas School of Law; English literature (BA), University of
Central Arkansas
Family: Single
Professional Career: Attorney, Pryor, Robertson, Beasley, Smith & Karber
224
Rebekah Kennedy, 29, was born in Heber Springs, Ark. and lives in Fort Smith, Ark.
She holds a bachelor of arts in English literature from the University of Central Arkansas in
Conway and a juris doctorate from the University of Arkansas School of Law in Fayetteville.
In 2006, Kennedy ran for Arkansas attorney general, but lost.
She is an attorney practicing in Fort Smith.
Rebekah Kennedy's run for attorney general was her first political campaign.
In April 2007, she announced that she was running for Senate.
Kennedy wants to abolish the death penalty, wants to allow same-sex couples to marry, and
proposes creating a national health insurance program to provide universal coverage. She also
wants to repeal the Patriot Act.654
225
The Race:
The most exciting race in the world of Arkansas politics these days may well be Democratic Sen.
Blanche Lincoln’s re-election — which doesn’t take place until 2010.
That’s because neither Pryor nor any of the state’s four House Members drew a major-party
challenger in the 2008 cycle.
Pryor is one first-term Senator who can already start planning for his second. With only token
655
third-party opposition in his way, he’s set to cruise to victory in November.
Pryor has raised $5.5 million compared with Kennedy's $12,000. His campaign stopped soliciting
656
campaign contributions in August.
In recent years, Republicans have not had a good run in Arkansas, which is arguably the most
Democratic of the southern states. Although President Bush increased his winning margin in the
state, from 51 percent in 2000 to 54 percent in 2004, Democrats picked up this Senate seat in
657
2002 and took the governorship in 2006.
Analysis by
Arkansas
Race Rating
Solid D
Safe Democratic
Safe Democrat
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
Mark Pryor (D)
434,890
54%
$4,414,148
Tim Hutchinson (R)
369,069
46%
$5,063,923
2002 primary Mark Pryor (D)
1996 general
Total Votes
Unopposed
Tim Hutchinson (R)
445,942
53%
$1,604,014
Winston Bryant (D)
400,241
47%
$1,577,838
226
Arizona
Electoral Votes:
10
Likely Republican (Cook Rating)
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
8:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
9:00 PM ET
All polls in state will close at 9:00PM ET, however no vote returns are released until all precincts
have reported or 1 hour after all polls are closed (10:00PM ET), whichever comes first.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
1,104,294
54.87
Kerry
893,524
44.4
Other
14,767
0.73
210,770
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
54.87%
44.40%
2000
51.02%
44.73%
1996
44.29%
46.52%
1992
38.47%
36.52%
1988
59.95%
38.74%
1984
66.42%
32.54%
1980
60.61%
28.24%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Clinton
50.4%
Obama
42.4%
Edwards
5.2%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
McCain
47.2%
Romney
34.5%
Huckabee
9.0%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Janet Napolitano (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
4
4
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
13
17
0
State House
27
3
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
3,294,370
As Of
09/02/2008
VEP 2008
4,191,799
VEP Turnout 2004
58.09%
6,338,755
Total population
State Pop. Rank
820,391
12.9%
65 years and over
3,743,365
59.1%
Non-Hispanic White
252,135
4.0%
Black
157,054
2.5%
Asian
1,878,097
29.6%
Hispanic (any race)
Phoenix
Tucson
Mesa
Biggest Cities
1,552,259
525,529
452,933
Rate
th
Rate Rank
4 highest in U.S.
State Rate
5.9%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$49,889
U.S.
$50,740
227
Legislative Referendum/ Constitutional Amendment
Prop 102. Same-sex marriage. Legislative constitutional amendment that defines marriage
as solely between one man and one woman.
A "yes" vote shall have the effect of amending the Arizona Constitution to define marriage as a
union between one man and one woman, while maintaining the current statutory law of the State
of Arizona, which prohibits marriage between persons of the same sex. A "no" vote shall have the
effect of maintaining the current statutory law of the State of Arizona, which prohibits marriage
between persons of the same sex, but would not amend the Arizona Constitution to define
marriage as a union between one man and one woman.
Prop 202. Illegal immigrants. Reduces employer responsibility for verifying immigration
status of employees.
A "yes" vote shall have the effect of modifying the laws covering employers who knowingly or
intentionally employ "unauthorized aliens," suspending or revoking licenses of businesses that
employ unauthorized aliens, adding penalties on employers who fail to properly report cash
wages, increasing penalties for identity theft related to employment, and establishing a
presumption favoring an employer that verifies employee eligibility under federal law. A "no" vote
shall have the effect of retaining Arizona's current employment laws that suspend or revoke
business licenses for employers who knowingly or intentionally employ an unauthorized alien.
Arizona 1st District
Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
Born: McNary, AZ
Home: Flagstaff
Education: BA University of Arizona, 1972; JD U. of Arizona College of Law, 1979
Religion: N/A
Elected Office: AZ House, 2004-present
Ann Kirkpatrick was born in McNary on the White Mountain Apache reservation in eastern
Arizona. She currently lives in Flagstaff. She earned a bachelor's degree in 1972 and a law
degree in 1979 from the University of Arizona.
Kirkpatrick became involved in politics at an early age, campaigning for her uncle who served in
the Arizona Legislature and her father's run for the school board.
She worked on Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano's campaign for state attorney general and has
remained active in the Democratic Party.
Kirkpatrick spent the early part of her career prosecuting drug-related cases for the Coconino
County attorney's office before going into private practice.658 In 1980, Kirkpatrick became
Coconino County's first female Deputy County Attorney.659
She also served as city attorney in Sedona.660
Kirkpatrick was elected to the Arizona House of Representatives to represent Legislative District
2 in November 2004.661
In 2004, she began teaching Business Law and Ethics at Coconino Community College.
662
228
Kirkpatrick and her ex-husband have two daughters, Whitney and Ashley. Kirkpatrick now has a
663
fiance.
Sydney Hay (R)
Born: 1955-12-13, Denver.
Home: Scottsdale
Education: BS KS Newman College
Religion: N/A
Marital Status: Married (Dan)
Professional Career: Teacher, Broadcaster
Sydney Ann Hay was born in Denver, Colo., and now splits her time between homes in Munds
Park and Scottsdale.
She spent five years teaching high school and elementary students in Kansas and Arizona after
she earned a bachelor's degree from Kansas Newman College in 1977.
Hay became interested in politics in the mid-1980s while a stay-at-home mom. She describes
herself as a champion of conservative reforms that included pushing a law through the Arizona
Legislature that requires a two-thirds vote before any tax or fee can be raised.664
Hay was an early supporter and campaign worker for Arizona Sen. Jon Kyi's first race for the
Senate in 1994.665
She serves as the president of the Arizona Mining Association and is a former chairwoman of the
Arizona Department of Mines and Mineral Resources' board of governors. She has been a
lobbyist for the mining industry for 15 years and runs a public affairs consulting firm.666
Hay first ran for Congress back in 2002. She was defeated in the Republican primary by 1st
District incumbent Rick Renzi.667
Hay has hosted a daily radio talk show for the last five years.668
Hay was the national campaign manager for California Rep. Duncan Hunter's long-shot bid for
the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.669
Hay and her ex-husband have two children and three grandchildren. Hay has been married to
Dan Hay for 15 years.670
Race Notes:
Former Democratic state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick has moved out front in the contest for the massive
district, which covers the northeastern portion of the state, including Flagstaff, and has the largest
American Indian population of any House district.
With strong support from the national party, Kirkpatrick has raised three times more than
Republican Sydney Hay, a conservative activist who is president of the Arizona Mining
Association.
Hay is backed by the National Rifle Association and can rely on a slight GOP trend in the district
in presidential years, especially with favorite son John McCain topping the ticket. But it’s the
reputation of another Arizona Republican, indicted incumbent Rick Renzi, that’s dragging Hay
way down.671
Republican chances of holding the seat improved with the decision by the ethics-tainted Renzi to
672
retire.
229
If Kirkpatrick wins, she would be the first Democrat to represent the seat since Rep. Karan
English lost to Republican J.D. Hayworth in 1994, when the area was in the 6th Congressional
District.673
Hay announced her candidacy in early September 2007 and has painted her Democratic
opponent as an extreme liberal who is out of touch with voters in the district. Although her
674
opponent has raised nearly three times the funding she has, Hay says she can win the race.
The 1st Congressional District is the 10th largest congressional district in the nation.675 The
676
district is larger than Pennsylvania at more than 58,000 square miles.
Democrats see the 1st District as an opportunity to not only pick up a seat in Congress, but also
to give Democrats a 5-3 edge in Arizona's House delegation. The last time Democrats had the
edge in Arizona's U.S. House delegation was 1966, according to the Arizona Secretary of State's
office.677
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Rick Renzi (R)
105,646
52%
$2,246,790
Ellen Simon (D)
88,691
43%
$1,514,638
David Schlosser
(Lib)
9,802
5%
$30,628
2006 primary
Rick Renzi (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Rick Renzi (R)
148,315
59%
$2,207,249
Paul Babbitt (D)
91,776
36%
$1,274,852
John Crockett (Lib)
13,260
5%
Arizona 5th District
Harry Mitchell (D) Incumbent
Born: 07/18/1940, Phoenix, AZ
Home: Tempe
Education: BA Arizona State University, 1962; MPA Arizona State University, 1980
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Marianne)
Elected Office: Tempe City Council, 1970-78; Mayor of Tempe, 1978-94
Harry Mitchell was born in Phoenix on July 18, 1940 and has lived in the same home in Tempe
for the last 40 years. Mitchell graduated from Arizona State University in 1962 after obtaining a
B.A. in political science. He got his MBA in public administration in 1980.
Mitchell taught high school government and economics and served on the Tempe City Council
from 1970 to 1978, after which he was elected mayor.
Mitchell was mayor of Tempe for 16 years ending in 1996. He then became a state senator in
1998.
He won Arizona's 5th District seat in 2006.
Mitchell and his wife, Marianne, have two children and five grandchildren.
678
230
231
David Schweikert (R)
Born: 03/03/1962, Los Angeles, CA
Home: Fountain Hills
Education: BA Arizona State University; MBA Arizona State University
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Joyce)
Elected Office: AZ House 1991-94; Maricopa Co. Treasurer, 2004-07
Professional Career: Real Estate Broker
David Schweikert was born in Los Angeles, Calif. He was adopted after birth and was raised with
two other adopted children in Scottsdale. He now resides in Fountain Hills.
Schweikert earned a bachelor's degree in finance and real estate at Arizona State University in
1985 and a master's in business at Arizona State University in 2005.
Schweikert was elected to the state House in 1989 and served until 1994, when he ran for the 5th
District seat. After losing to Republican J.D. Hayworth in the primary, he began working at the
Maricopa County Treasurer's Office.
Schweikert was elected as treasurer in 2004 and served until 2007, when he left the office to run
this year for the 5th District seat. He narrowly won the Republican primary with 29.5 percent of
the vote.
Schweikert began going on trips abroad every year starting in 1994. The first was to Calcutta,
India. He has also traveled to Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Vietnam and Serbia. He and his wife,
Joyce, run their own financial consulting business, Sheridan Equities.
Schweikert narrowly won this year's Republican primary for the 5th District seat, spending
hundreds of thousands of dollars fighting off the five other candidates.
Race Notes:
Mitchell is vulnerable in his quest for a second term, given the GOP lean of this district.
Republicans concede that the Democratic former mayor of Tempe is likeable, but they argue that
he’s been too passive a presence in the House and is closely tied to the liberal Democratic
agenda. The Republican candidate, former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, has
the backing of the anti-tax Club for Growth, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee has put significant resources toward defending Mitchell as one of the party’s “Frontline
Democrats.”679
Bush won the district by nine points in 2004.680
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Harry Mitchell (D)
101,838
50%
$1,933,184
J.D. Hayworth (R)
93,815
46%
$3,000,381
6,357
3%
Other
2006 primary
Harry Mitchell (D)
Unopposed
2004 general
J.D. Hayworth (R)
159,455
59%
$1,356,723
Elizabeth Rogers
(D)
102,363
38%
$4,898
6,189
2%
Other
232
Arizona 8th District
Gabrielle Giffords (D) Incumbent
Born: 06/08/1970, Tucson, AZ
Home: Tucson
Education: BA Scripps College, 1993; MA Cornell University, 1997
Religion: Jewish
Marital status: Married (Mark Kelly)
Elected Office: AZ House, 2000-03; AZ Senate, 2003-05
Gabrielle Giffords was born and still lives in Tucson. She received a bachelor's degree from
Scripps College, majoring in Latin American history and sociology. Award a Fulbright scholarship
for her undergraduate achievement, Giffords studied for a year in Chihuahua, Mexico and three
years later received a master's degree in regional planning from Cornell University.
Giffords, who married NASA astronaut and Navy Cmdr. Mark Kelly on Nov. 10, 2007, worked as
a planner at the University of San Diego before working for Price Waterhouse in 1996. She
returned to Tucson to take over her family's tire company, serving as president and chief
executive from 1996 to 2000. She formed a commercial property management firm in Tucson in
2000 and has been its managing partner since.Giffords, a one-time Republican, became a
Democrat in 2000 and successfully ran that year for a seat in the Arizona House, where she
served one term.
In 2002, she became the youngest woman ever elected to the Arizona Senate and was re-elected
two years later, serving until she resigned in December 2005 to seek the congressional seat
being vacated by Rep. Jim Kolbe after 11 terms.681
In 2006, she carried the district 54%-42%.
Tim Bee (R)
Born: 06/20/1969, Tucson, AZ
Home: Tucson
Education: Attended University of Arizona
Religion: Christian
Marital status: Married (Grace)
Elected Office: AZ Senate, 2000-present
Timothy Bee is a native of Tucson. He earned a certificate in audio engineering at TRW Institute
in 1997 and attended University of Arizona.
Bee is the son of public school educators. He founded the Bee Brothers Printing Co. in 1989 and
managed its operations. He left the firm in 2001 when he was elected to the Arizona Senate.
Bee worked part time for his brother's transportation company during part of his Senate tenure
until 2006 when he became the first Senate president from southern Arizona in more than 30
years. He has also served as Senate majority leader. His term expires in 2008.
Bee has been a member of the National Conference of State Legislatures, the Council of State
Governments and the Congressional Conference on Civic Education. His interests include biking,
cross-country running and restoring antique autos.
Bee and his opponent, Democratic incumbent Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, were classmates at
Tanque Verde Elementary School and performed together in the school band. They also served
together for a time in the Arizona Legislature.
233
Bee and his wife, Grace, have five children and are adopting a foster child.682
Race Notes:
Giffords won the seat in the state’s southeast corner two years ago in large measure because her
opponent was so conservative on immigration that he was disowned by the party’s establishment
— including the retiring 11-term incumbent, Jim Kolbe. Republicans are hoping state Senate
President Tim Bee’s more mainstream image, given his experience and fundraising strength
683
against one of the best-funded Democratic freshmen, will help him secure the race.
An unrelenting attack on illegal immigrants by the 2006 GOP nominee helped give the seat to the
Democrats for the first time in more than two decades.Bush carried the district in '04 by seven
684
points.
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
2004 general
Gabrielle Giffords
(D)
137,655
54%
$2,442,119
Randy Graf (R)
106,790
42%
$1,341,943
9,275
4%
Gabrielle Giffords
(D)
33,375
54%
Patty Weiss (D)
19,148
31%
Jeffrey Latas (D)
3,687
6%
Alex Rodriguez (D)
2,855
5%
Other
2,344
4%
Jim Kolbe (R)
183,363
60%
$1,146,714
Eva Bacal (D)
109,963
36%
$99,691
10,443
3%
Other
2006 primary
Total Votes
Other
234
235
Colorado
Electoral Votes:
9
First Polls Open:
9:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
1,101,255
51.69
Kerry
1,001,732
47.02
Other
27,343
1.28
99,523
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
51.69%
47.02%
2000
50.75%
42.39%
1996
45.80%
44.43%
1992
35.87%
40.13%
1988
53.06%
45.28%
1984
63.44%
35.12%
1980
55.07%
31.07%
2008 Caucus Results
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 5
Obama
66.5%
Clinton
32.3%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Romney
McCain
Huckabee
Battleground state
Feb. 5
60.3%
18.5%
12.8%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Bill Ritter (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
4
3
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
20
15
0
State House
40
25
0
9:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
1,051,643
Republican
1,063,347
Other
19,299
1,069,294
Total
3,203,583
As Of
10/22/2008
VEP 2008
3,529,620
VEP Turnout 2004
68.41%
4,861,515
Total population
22
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
492,685
10.1%
65 years and over
3,468,364
71.3%
Non-Hispanic White
205,612
4.2%
Black
130,179
2.7%
Asian
965,885
19.9%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Denver
588,349
Colorado Springs
376,427
Aurora
311,794
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
5.2%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$55,212
U.S.
$50,740
236
Colorado – Battleground State
In recent days, both Obama and John McCain have targeted Colorado.
Colorado has long been a safe bet for Republican candidates, but this time polls show it moving
685
into the Obama column.
Colorado has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only three times since 1948, when it
686
went for Harry Truman. Lyndon B. Johnson won here in 1964, and Bill Clinton in 1992.
Although the last Democratic presidential candidate to win more than 50 percent of the vote here
was Lyndon Johnson, the state has been trending more liberal for years - a result of in-migration,
demographic changes, and a rising sense among some moderate Republicans that the state and
national party have moved too far to the right.
Colorado's shift to the purple or blue column has been gradual. In 2004, President Bush won here
by 5 percent, but Coloradans at the same time handed a GOP Senate seat to Democrat Ken
Salazar. In 2006, the state elected a Democratic governor and put a majority of Democrats in
both legislative houses for the first time in nearly a half century. In part, voters blamed the
Republicans in power for a state fiscal crisis.
"The larger sweep of recent history [in Colorado] has been on the Democratic side," says political
scientist John Straayer at Colorado State University in Fort Collins.
Still, McCain is a fellow Westerner, cultivates a maverick image that can play well here, and
through July and August seemed to hold the edge in Colorado. Then came the Democratic
National Convention in Denver, the economic crisis, and rising disenchantment with Bush and the
Republicans.
A Senate race here has had Democrat Mark Udall comfortably ahead for months, but Obama has
begun to show a similar lead only in recent weeks, says Floyd Ciruli, a nonpartisan Colorado
pollster. State voters have become more comfortable with Obama, he suggests, and he credits
the Democrats with running a smart campaign. Unaffiliated voters - typically about one-third of
Colorado's electorate - have started to swing to Obama.
McCain is expected to win in some rural areas of Colorado and in the socially conservative
Colorado Springs area. But swing counties around Denver - including Arapahoe, Jefferson, and
Garfield - and even traditionally conservative ones like Larimer County to the north seem to be
moving to the left.687
Most of the state’s people live in a sprawling, more or less horizontal metropolis that stretches
130 miles from Fort Collins in the north to Colorado Springs in the state’s middle. In the central
section, around Denver, the traffic can be almost as bad as in Los Angeles and the air often
smells worse. Another similarity is that virtually all the population growth is in suburbs and small
towns on the metropolitan fringe. This is where the Democrats are gaining ground.
Consider Larimer County, on the border with Wyoming. Once the sugar-beet capital of Colorado,
this is now a booming job centre. Its biggest settlement is Fort Collins, a tidy town that was the
model for parts of Disneyland. With its micro-breweries and coffee shops, Fort Collins is the kind
of place that scores highly on magazine lists of the best places to live in America. It should be
solidly Republican, and it is, but the party’s advantage is crumbling. In the past four years the
Republicans have shed voters in the county, the Democrats have added thousands of new
voters.
It is a similar story elsewhere. In suburban Arapahoe County, which both state parties describe as
a battleground, the Republican edge in voter registrations shrivelled from 29,000 to a current
688
5,276 vote advantage for Democrats.
237
Long a Republican stronghold, sprawling Arapahoe County, south and east of Denver, has
become an increasingly competitive battleground. In a parallel advance, Democrats have gained
ground in neighboring Jefferson County, a suburban behemoth southwest of Denver once
dominated by the GOP. And Democrats have also grown stronger in Larimer County, centered on
Fort Collins, north of Denver.
Through the 1990s, an influx of culturally conservative voters--centered in Colorado Springs and
in the explosively growing Douglas County, an exurb south of Arapahoe and Jefferson--shifted
the state to the right. By 2002, Republicans held the governorship, both chambers in the state
Legislature, both U.S. Senate seats, and five of the state's seven U.S. House seats.
Since then, Democrats have staged a remarkably rapid and widespread recovery. In 2004,
Democrats recaptured majorities in both the state Senate and the state House, flipped a U.S.
House seat, and elected Ken Salazar to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse
Campbell.
The contrast between Salazar's success and Kerry's failure on Election Day here in 2004
underscores the challenge facing Obama. On the day that Bush beat Kerry in the state by 99,523
votes, Salazar beat Republican Pete Coors by almost exactly the same margin, 100,520 votes.
The difference between Kerry's and Salazar's performances maps the boundary between victory
and defeat for a Democrat in Colorado.
Salazar did many things better than his party's presidential nominee. He squeezed slightly larger
margins of victory from the bedrock Democratic counties of Denver and Boulder, for example,
and he narrowly won in the Fort Collins area, where Kerry narrowly lost.
But the most important divergence came in two very different parts of the state, according to a
comparison of the election results conducted for National Journal by Clark Bensen of Polidata, a
political data analysis firm. The first was in the state's rural counties: Salazar lost most of them,
but he held down the GOP's winning margins much more effectively there than Kerry did.
According to the Polidata analysis, Salazar finished at least 10 percentage points higher than
Kerry in 18 small rural counties, most of them along the state's eastern border or along the
Western Slope of the Rocky Mountains, and at least 5 percentage points higher in most of the
other rural counties.
Salazar also did significantly better than Kerry in Denver's suburbs, particularly Jefferson and
Arapahoe counties. Bush beat Kerry there by a combined 23,000 votes; Salazar carried the two
counties by nearly 25,000.
Republicans are confident that Obama, with his urbane manner and liberal views on most social
issues, won't be able to match the folksy Salazar's showing in rural Colorado. For Obama, the
realistic goal in rural Colorado may not be to match Salazar's performance but simply to exceed
Kerry's anemic one. If he is to win the state, "Obama can't get killed in rural Colorado,"
Democratic consultant Mike Stratton, who is advising the party's U.S. Senate nominee Rep. Mark
Udall, says. Obama could compensate for weak showings in rural counties by generating even
larger margins than Salazar or Kerry did in such core Democratic communities as Boulder and
Denver. But the likelihood that Obama will face resistance in rural places means that he will have
to build on recent Democratic gains in the Denver suburbs.
The counties surrounding the state capital seem to be undergoing the same evolution that
realigned comfortable, socially moderate white-collar suburbs along the East and West coasts
(such as Santa Clara, Calif.) and the upper Midwest (such as Oakland County, Mich.) toward the
Democrats under Bill Clinton during the 1990s.
No Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson has carried Jefferson or Arapahoe.
But the 47 percent of the vote that Kerry won in Jefferson, and his 48 percent in Arapahoe were
new highs for a post-Johnson Democratic nominee, according to Polidata figures. And in 2006,
238
Ritter, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, pushed beyond Salazar's 2004 breakthrough in
the two counties to sweep them by a combined 68,000 votes.
Democrats in the two counties are benefiting from a combination of demographic and attitudinal
changes. A growing Hispanic population, especially in the suburbs closest to Denver, is boosting
the Democrats. But the party is also growing more attractive to middle-income families, especially
those headed by professionals with advanced degrees. Many of those Democratic-leaning
professionals register as unaffiliated voters.
For all of the Democrats' momentum in Colorado, the basic math of the state hasn't yet tipped
toward them. Although Hispanics vote heavily Democratic, exit polls found that Hispanics cast
just 8 percent of the Colorado vote in 2004, a lower percentage than in any Southwestern state.
And although Democrats have halved the GOP's registration edge from nearly 177,000 in
November 2004 to just under 12,000 as of Oct. 22, Democrats must still attract a substantial
majority of independents to win.
Both Arapahoe and Jefferson are booming with those unaffiliated voters. To carry Colorado,
Obama almost certainly will need to win those counties' combined vote--something no
Democratic presidential nominee has done in 44 years.689
What a difference four years makes in Colorado's political landscape. The state has become
more female, more Democratic and older since Bush handily won Colorado's nine electoral votes
in 2004.690
A Rocky Mountain News analysis of voter data in 2004 and 2008 found:
-- The dominant voting bloc in the state has shifted from Republican men to Democratic women.
-- The percentage of young voters is less than it was four years ago, while the percentage of
senior voters has risen since 2004.
-- The number of female voters continued to rise. They now outnumber male voters by more than
100,000.
The changing demographics underscore how Colorado has become a battleground state this
year after decades of Republican Party dominance in presidential elections.
"It would certainly help account for Colorado's swing status," said Bob Duffy, chairman of the
political science department at Colorado State University.
Higher registration numbers among Democrats and women favor Obama's bid in Colorado, while
the aging trend could help McCain, researchers and analysts said.
In 2004, 18.7 percent -- or almost one in five voters -- were male Republicans. This year, it is
Democratic women who comprise almost one in five voters, or 19.2 percent of the electorate.
Republican men have slipped to 17 percent.
Colorado has a very mobile population, said Ken Bickers, chairman of the political science
department at the University of Colorado. And as people leave one place and settle in another,
they tend to rethink their political affiliation when they re-register to vote, he said.
Bickers thinks there has been a shift with some women re-registering from unaffiliated to
Democratic and some men moving from the Republican column to unaffiliated.
The analysis shows that the percentage of women voters in Colorado continues to rise, another
trend that favors Democrats, analysts said.
239
The swiftness in the state's demographic change has been surprising.
Four years ago, Republicans had a 180,000 edge over Democrats. Now it is less than 15,000,
leaving the state almost evenly divided among Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
Among active voters, Democrats have a slight lead, the analysis showed.
However, the aging trend could help McCain keep Colorado a red state, analysts said.
The analysis showed that the percentage of voters between 18 and 25 is slightly lower this year
than in 2004 -- 13.5 percent vs. 13.9 percent. At the same time, the percentage of voters 65 and
over rose to 15 percent from 13.7 percent four years ago.
McCain's strongest support is among older voters.
The registration shift bodes well for Democratic candidates in Colorado, but it will still come down
to voter turnout, especially for Democrats.
Of Colorado's 3,203,583 registered voters, 33.2 percent are Republicans, 32.8 percent are
Democrats and 33.4 percent are unaffiliated.691
Below the level of presidential races, Democrats have made steady progress in recent elections.
Ritter, a former Denver district attorney, captured the governorship from Republicans two years
ago, and Democrats control both houses of the state legislature.
Democrats already hold one Senate seat and are overwhelmingly favored to pick up the open
seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Wayne Allard. In a sign of how the race between
Democratic Rep. Mark Udall and former Republican congressman Bob Schaffer is trending, the
National Republican Senatorial Committee decided late last week to pull out of the race.
In the House, Democrats picked up the swing 7th Congressional District two years ago and are
battling to add the seat in the 4th Congressional District, held by embattled Republican Rep.
Marilyn Musgrave.692
The conservative forces backing McCain in Colorado are energized, and he counts on a get-outthe-vote operation that historically has ranked as one of the Republican Party's top three or four
in the nation. But McCain faces an opponent who, with a huge financial war chest, an army of
volunteer activists and an aggressive game plan, has put together a campaign that Democratic
officials in the state say is superior to anything they have ever seen on their side.
Obama has more than 50 offices in Colorado, McCain about a dozen. On Election Day, there
may be as many as 100 sites around the state from which the voter turnout operation will be
directed. Obama officials will not say how many paid staffers they have in the state, but one
knowledgeable Democratic strategist said privately that the number approaches 400.
Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.), who picked off a Republican-held district in the Democratic sweep
two years ago and is eyeing an easy reelection campaign, said the Obama effort is impressive for
its "scale and consistency and persistency," adding: "They're just touching everybody and
anybody."
"I've never seen a ground game like Barack Obama's," Gov. Bill Ritter (D) said.
Republicans here give Obama credit for the size of the operation he has put together but argue
that with the benefit of experience on their side, they are better equipped to compete in the battle
to mobilize and turn out voters -- though they concede that McCain is running in one of the worst
environments Republicans have seen in decades.
240
McCain recently scaled back his television buy in Colorado for the final days of the campaign, as
he seeks to spread his more limited resources around at least half a dozen states where he is
trailing and where he must win to have a chance of reaching 270 electoral votes. The Denver
Post estimated that, over the final stretch of the campaign, Obama will outspend McCain by about
7 to 1 on television ads in the Denver area.
Overall, Obama has spent $8.5 million on ads in Colorado during the general election, compared
with $7.9 million for McCain. In the past week, Obama spent $838,000 to McCain's $531,000,
according to figures compiled by Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group. Tracey
said that while McCain outspent Obama before the Democratic National Convention, which was
693
held in Denver in late August, Obama has spent more since then.
Obama brought his campaign back to Colorado on Oct. 26 for another rock-star reception,
drawing about 150,000 people at early voting rallies in Denver and Fort Collins. In Denver, a
crowd estimated at "well over" 100,000 people spilled out of Civic Center Park.
It was similar to the rousing support Obama got in August when he gave his nominating speech
at Invesco Field at Mile High stadium, inviting Republicans, Democrats and others to kick off the
final push of the campaign.694
Amendment 46. Civil rights/affirmative action. Prohibits government from discriminating
or giving preferential treatment on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national
origin.
Shall there be an amendment to the Colorado Constitution concerning a prohibition against
discrimination by the state, and, in connection therewith, prohibiting the state from discriminating
against or granting preferential treatment to any individual or group on the basis of race, sex,
color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public education, or
public contracting; allowing exceptions to the prohibition when bona fide qualifications based on
sex are reasonably necessary or when action is necessary to establish or maintain eligibility for
federal funds; preserving the validity of court orders or consent decrees in effect at the time the
measure becomes effective; defining “state” to include the state of Colorado, agencies or
departments of the state, public institutions of higher education, political subdivisions, or
governmental instrumentalities of or within the state; and making portions of the measure found
invalid severable from the remainder of the measure? (Yes, No)
Amendment 48. Definition of a “person” (abortion). Defines a “person” as a human being
from the moment of fertilization, presumably would ban abortion.
Shall there be an amendment to the Colorado constitution defining the term “person” to include
any human being from the moment of fertilization as “person” is used in those provisions of the
Colorado constitution relating to inalienable rights, equality of justice, and due process of law?
(Yes, No)
COLORADO – U.S. Senate Race
Former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R)
Born: June 24, 1962; Cincinnati, Ohio
Home: Fort Collins, CO
Education: University of Dayton, BA, Political Science ('84); Colorado Technical University,
honorary doctorate in management
Marital status: Married (Maureen)
241
Elected Office: Colorado State Senate (1987-1996); U.S. House of Representatives (1996-2003)
Professional Career: Founder and President, Dreamsoft Colorado, LLC
Robert W. Schaffer was born in Cincinnati, Ohio and currently lives in Fort Collins, Colo. He
graduated from Archbishop Moeller High School in 1980. He received a bachelor's degree in
political science from the University of Dayton in 1984.
Schaffer was the owner of Northern Front Range Marketing and Distribution, a small marketing
business serving Colorado’s tourism industry, in Fort Collins and was a property manager.
Schaffer began his career in government as an administrative aide for the Republican majority in
695
the Colorado Senate.
He served nine years in the Colorado state senate, from 1987 to 1996; at 25 years old, he was
696
the youngest person ever to serve in the Colorado Senate.
He was appointed to fill an unexpired term in the Colorado Senate in December 1987, elected to
a full term in 1988 and re-elected in 1992 to represent District 14 in Larimer County in northcentral Colorado.
In 1994, Schaffer ran as lieutenant governor on the ticket with GOP gubernatorial candidate
Bruce Benson, who lost to incumbent Roy Romer.
He was elected to the U.S. House in 1996 and re-elected in 1998 and 2000. In 2002, he stepped
down to keep a term-limits pledge, a decision he later said he regretted.697
He ran for the U.S. Senate in 2004, but lost in the primary to Pete Coors, who lost in the general
election to current Sen. Ken Salazar.698
Schaffer has a record as a strong conservative who opposed abortion and gun control. He also
favored less government and lower taxes.
After leaving office, he became vice-president for business development at Aspect Energy, Inc.,
of Denver, Colorado where he was involved in a variety of energy, mining and education projects,
but he resigned in 2008 to run for the Senate.
In 2006, he was elected to a seven-year term on the state Board of Education.699
In 2006, he founded Dreamsoft Colorado, LLC, a firm that creates interactive websites for
business and political clients.700
Schaffer and his wife, Maureen, have five children.701
Rep. Mark Udall (D)
Born: July 18, 1950; Tucson, Ariz.
Home: Eldorado Springs, CO
Education: Williams College, B.A. 1972 (American civilization)
Religion: not affiliated
Marital status: Married (Maggie Fox)
Elected Office: CO House, 1996-98; US House, 1998-present
Professional Career: Educator
Rep. Udall is serving his fifth term representing Colorado’s Second Congressional District.
Mark Emery Udall was born in Tucson, Ariz., and resides in Eldorado Springs, Colo. He
graduated from Canyon Del Oro, in Tucson and received a bachelor's degree in American
civilization from Williams College in 1972.
242
He was executive director of Colorado Outward Bound School from 1985 to 1995. He is a veteran
of more than two dozen worldwide mountain expeditions, and is an accomplished photographer,
skier, kayaker, golfer and runner.
He was elected to the Colorado House in 1996.
In 1998, he was first elected to the U.S. House, defeating Republican Bob Greenlee with 50
percent of the vote to capture the seat vacated by the retirement of 12-year Democratic Rep.
David Skaggs.
His candidacy had environmentalists hoping for a fresh generation to rekindle the quest to protect
land and water. One of Udall's first bills put heavy penalties on those who trap trophy animals in
Colorado. Since then, he has emerged as a consistent environmentalist.
Udall's family has been entrenched in politics since the late 1800s. Udalls have served as mayors
and judges, as Arizona Supreme Court justices and as Cabinet secretaries.
Udall is the son of former U.S. Rep. Morris Udall, who was part of Arizona's Congressional
delegation and was a candidate for president in 1976. His father helped spearhead some of the
nation's landmark environmental laws. His uncle, Stewart Udall, was interior secretary in the
Kennedy and Johnson administrations.
Mark Udall and his wife, attorney Maggie Fox, have two children.702
243
Bob Kinsey (Green)
Born: 06/19/1937; Queens, NY
Residence: Denver
Education: M.Div. Chicago Theological Seminary
Religion: United Church of Christ
Marital Status: Widowed
Military: USMC, 1955-1958
Prev. Occupation: Retired Clergyman, Teacher
A lifelong peace-and-justice activist, Kinsey moved to Colorado in 1967 to take a clergy position
at First United Church in Arvada, later becoming a public school teacher.
He moved West after getting fired from a church in Ohio - for letting youthful congregants speak
out against the war in Vietnam.
Kinsey was the Democratic nominee for Jefferson County sheriff in 1974.
He co-chaired an unsuccessful ballot initiative to make Arvada a nuclear-free zone in 1987.
He was the Green Party nominee for 4th Congressional District in 2004.
Kinsey, 71, is widowed with seven children and stepchildren and 10 grandchildren.703
Race Notes:
Schaffer and Udall are running for the seat being vacated by Republican Wayne Allard.704 Udall
has consistently lead Schaffer in the polls.
Udall’s mostly liberal views might have been a major liability in a politically neutral election year,
but he has the advantage of sharing a ballot with Barack Obama, who’s has been leading McCain
in Colorado polls.
Udall has been painting Schaffer, who sits on the Colorado Board of Education, as too
conservative for Colorado. Republican strategists invariably attach the prefix of “Boulder liberal”
when invoking Udall’s name.
The Denver Post editorially endorsed Udall, saying that he “is the more likely of the two to act as
the let’s-work-together moderate once elected.”
Rep. Mark Udall represents left-leaning Boulder and Colorado’s prime ski communities.
Schaffer, who represented Colorado s eastern plains from 1997 through 2002, lost a Republican
primary for the state’s other Senate seat in 2004.705
Udall has the edge in fundraising and name recognition.706
On Oct. 23, the Denver Post reported that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will
yank television ads supporting Udall, citing unnamed state Democratic sources. DSCC
spokesman Matt Miller said the group doesn't comment on advertising decisions but said that
Udall is in a "commanding position to win this race."
Udall isn't happy about the move because outside groups that want to keep the seat in
Republican hands have spent more than $15 million on ads against Udall.707
According to third-quarter reports, Udall has spent $6 million since June and now has half a
million dollars on hand, while Schaffer has less than $3 million after spending a little more than $2
244
million since June. Udall's campaign said the high spending level included advertising for October
708
and reflected efforts to counteract a raft of attack ads from outside groups.
On Iraq, Schaffer said he doesn't agree with a resolution to prematurely withdraw troops. Udall
said he voted against the war and wants to bring troops home now.
On the economy both men have said they oppose the financial bailout.
The issue of energy has dominated much of the race.
Udall supports limited drilling of the Roan Plateau and along the coast, and advocates for
renewable and alternative energy. Schaffer says he would work to eliminate the estate tax, and
supports drilling along the coast and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.709
Schaffer accused Udall of being the biggest-spending member of the Colorado congressional
delegation and criticized Udall's proposal to spend $8 billion on a new Department of Peace.
Neither said they want to see the expansion of the Pinon Canyon training area east of Trinidad, a
move the Army says is crucial for proper training of the 4th Infantry Division based at Fort Carson.
And both favored additional studies of the Southern Delivery System, a proposed pipeline to bring
water to Colorado Springs from Pueblo Reservoir.710
Analysis:
When Republican Wayne Allard announced his retirement after two terms, the assumption was
that this Purple state might well lean Democratic in 2008, just as it did in 2006 when it elected a
new Democratic Governor (Bill Ritter) in a landslide.
Still, this one is competitive, and Mark Udall is not the sure thing cousin Tom Udall appears to be
in New Mexico.711
Analysis by
Colorado
Race Rating
Lean D
Likely Democratic
Leans Democrat
Likely Takeover
245
Recent Poll Results
Dates
Pollster
N/Pop Schaffer Udall Kinsey Moore Campbell Other Undecided Margin
10/16/08
700
LV
44
51
-
-
-
2
3
+7D
Suffolk
10/1013/08
450
LV
34
45
1
-
3
-
17
+11D
Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post
10/812/08
1088
LV
40
54
-
-
-
1
6
+14D
Quinnipiac/WSJ/Post
10/37/08
997
LV
43
48
-
-
-
-
9
+5D
Mason-Dixon
9/2910/1/08
625
LV
38
43
-
-
-
-
19
+5D
Rasmussen
9/23/08
700
LV
44
46
-
-
-
4
6
+2D
Rasmussen
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general Wayne Allard (R)
Tom Strickland
(D)
Other
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
717,893
51%
$5,223,592
648,130
46%
$5,160,517
50,059
3%
2002 primary Wayne Allard (R)
Unopposed
1996 general Wayne Allard (R)
750,325
51%
$2,233,429
677,600
46%
$2,894,916
41,686
3%
Tom Strickland
(D)
Other
Prior winning
percentages:
1994 House (72%); 1992 House (58%);
1990 House (54%)
Colorado 4th District
Marilyn Musgrave (R) Incumbent
Born: 01/27/1949, Greeley, CO
Home: Ft. Morgan, Colorado
Education: BA Colorado State University, 1972
Religion: Assembly of God
Marital status: married (Steven)
Elected Office: CO House, 1994-98; CO Senate, 1998-2002
Professional Career: Businesswoman, Teacher
Rep. Musgrave is the three-term incumbent.712
Marilyn Musgrave grew up in rural Weld County, Colo., and graduated from Eaton High School.
After graduating from Colorado State University, she taught school and raised four children. She
and her husband, Steve, also ran an agricultural hay business. She got her start in politics as a
member of the Fort Morgan school board.
246
Musgrave was elected to the Colorado House in 1994 and again in 1996. She then won a state
Senate seat with 63 percent of the vote and became caucus chairman for Republicans. She is a
past president of the Colorado Republican Women.
In the Legislature, Musgrave fought for a 5 percent tax cut and eliminating the state marriage
penalty. She also sought to exempt farm and ranch equipment and agricultural repair parts from
estate taxes.
She was elected to the U.S. House in 2002.713
Musgrave introduced the Federal Marriage Amendment in May 2003.
714
715
Musgrave has twice won re-election although by close margins. She has watched her margin
of victory shrink with every election. Last time around, in a three-way race, she won with just 46%
of the vote.716
Betsy Markey (D)
Born: 4/27/ 1956, Cresskill, NJ
Home: Fort Collins, Colorado
Education: BS University of Florida, 1978; MPA American University, 1983
Religion: Christian
Marital status: married (Jim)
Elected Office: None
Professional Career: Business woman:
Betsy Markey was born in Cresskill, N.J., and now lives in Fort Collins. She received a bachelor's
degree from the University of Florida in 1978 and moved to Washington, D.C., where she became
a legislative aide on the House Subcommittee on Post Office and Civil Service.
In 1983, she was appointed a Presidential Management Fellow and was assigned jobs in the
Treasury and State departments. After leaving government service, she and her husband started
an Internet business from their home in the late 1980s.
In 1995, she and her family moved to Colorado, where they bought and operated Huckleberry's, a
popular coffee and ice cream shop in Fort Collins, which she sold in 2001.
She won the job as chair of the Larimer County Democratic Party, a position she held until
January 2005.
She served until May 2007 as U.S. Senator Ken Salazar's regional director for the north central
and high plains region of Colorado, which earned her high praise for the man soon to become
Colorado's senior U.S. Senator.
Betsy and her husband, Jim, have three children.717
Race Notes:
Musgrave has turned her focus from a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage to the needs of
local agriculture and military veterans — a shift that prompted the Denver Post to endorse her for
a fourth term; the Denver Post had opposed Musgrave in her first three races.
Though the state’s eastern plains have a conservative bent, Musgrave’s underwhelming winning
margins the past two times ensured her another tough race this time, and it doesn’t help her that
Barack Obama is now favored to carry the state.
247
The Democratic challenger is Betsy Markey, a former aide to Sen. Ken Salazar. Democrats hope
she can replicate her former boss’s success in attracting crossover support from independents
and Republicans.
As they did in previous elections, liberal groups have been hammering Musgrave’s votes on
718
veterans’ and environmental issues.
The Defenders of Wildlife and others have pumped in nearly $2 million to defeat Musgrave, who
719
spent less than $700,000 by July 1.
Musgrave and her Republican allies have raised questions about Markey’s private business
720
dealings.
th
The rural Colorado 4 district has long been solidly Republican.
Colorado's 4th Congressional District covers a pivotal stretch of up-for-grabs territory along
721
Interstate 25 north of Denver.
The key for both candidates -- and for the presidential campaigns as well -- will be independent
white voters, especially women.722
Outside money is pouring into the battle between Musgrave and Markey.
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Marilyn Musgrave
(R)
109,732
46%
$3,212,143
Angie Paccione (D)
103,748
43%
$1,951,180
Eric Eidsness (Ref)
27,133
11%
$31,808
2006 primary
Marilyn Musgrave
(R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Marilyn Musgrave
(R)
155,958
51%
$3,314,507
Stan Matsunaka (D)
136,812
45%
$868,439
Bob Kinsey (Green)
12,739
4%
$6,946
2002 (55%)
248
249
Kansas
Electoral Votes:
6
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
9:00 PM ET
Most of the state is in CTZ, however 4 counties are in MTZ. All counties may close at 8:00PM ET
but have the option of staying open one hour later until 9:00 PM ET.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
736,456
62.00%
Kerry
434,993
36.62%
Other
16,307
1.38%
301,463
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
62.00%
36.62%
2000
58.04%
37.24%
1996
54.29%
36.08%
1992
38.88%
33.74%
1988
55.79%
42.56%
1984
66.27%
32.60%
1980
57.85%
33.29%
2008 Caucus Results
Democrats
Caucus Date:
Feb. 05
Obama
74.1%
Clinton
25.6%
Edwards
0.1%
Republicans
Caucus Date:
Feb. 09
Huckabee
59.6%
McCain
23.5%
Paul
11.2%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Kathleen Sebelius (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
2
2
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
10
30
0
State House
47
78
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
460,684
Republican
756,521
Other
10,549
454,920
Total
1,682,672
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
2,015,846
VEP Turnout 2004
64.17%
2,775,997
Total population
State Pop. Rank
360,216
13.0%
65 years and over
2,240,054
80.7%
Non-Hispanic White
168,531
6.1%
Black
61,720
2.2%
Asian
244,306
8.8%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Wichita
361,420
Overland Park
169,403
Kansas City
142,320
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
4.8%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$47,451
U.S.
$50,740
250
KANSAS – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Pat Roberts (R) Incumbent
Born: April 20, 1936, Topeka, KS
Home: Dodge City, KS
Education: BA (Journalism), Kansas State University
Religion: Methodist
Marital status: Married (Franki)
Elected Office: US House, 1981-96
Professional Career: Journalist
Charles "Pat" Patrick Roberts was born in Topeka, Kan., and resides in Dodge City.
His father, the late Wes Roberts, was chairman of the Republican National Committee under
President Eisenhower. His great-grandfather founded the weekly Oskaloosa Independent,
Kansas' second-oldest newspaper.
He served four years in the Marine Corps, 1958 to 1962, completing service as a captain.
He was publisher of a newspaper in Litchfield, Ariz., from 1962 to 1967, then was administrative
assistant to the late U.S. Sen. Frank Carlson from 1967 to 1968. He served as an administrative
assistant to the late U.S. Rep. Keith Sebelius from 1968 to 1980.
When Sebelius did not seek re-election in 1980, Roberts won the seat and was re-elected each
two years through 1994.
He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996, replacing the retiring Sen. Nancy Kassebaum, and
drew no Democratic opposition to his bid for a second term.
Roberts and his wife, Franki, have three children.723
Former Rep. Jim Slattery (D)
Born: August 4, 1948, Good Intent, Kansas
Home: Topeka, Kan.
Education: BA (Political Science), Washburn University; JD (Law), Washburn University
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Linda)
Elected Office: Kansas House of Representatives 1972-1978, U.S. House of Representatives
1982-1994; elected as a Democrat to the Ninety-eighth and to the five succeeding Congresses
(January 3, 1983-January 3, 1995)
Professional Career: Lawyer and lobbyist
Jim Slattery has 12 years of House experience.724 He represented Kansas' 2nd Congressional
District from 1983 to 1995.
In 1972, Slattery was elected to the Kansas legislature. He retired after six years to work in real
estate.
He ran for governor in 1994 and was defeated by Republican Bill Graves.
After leaving the House, he spent 14 years working as a lawyer and lobbyist for a large
Washington law firm of Wiley Rein
In 2008, he left his law practice and returned to Topeka to run for the U.S. Senate.725
251
Race Notes:
Roberts has been leading by more than 20% in most recent polls.
A Democrat hasn't won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932.
Pat Roberts is seeking a third term; last time out, Roberts didn't even face a challenge from the
Democrats.726
Unlike 2002, the Democrats are running a challenger this year.
727
In 2008, National Democrats pressured popular Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Rep. Dennis Moore
to run, but Kansas is one of those states where it is difficult for Democrats to win Senate races
even if they enjoy some success in other statewide races.
Wealthy businessman Greg Orman (D) entered the race in late 2007 but dropped out in midFebruary, robbing the Democrats of even a long-shot hope of winning.
Former Rep. Slattery, who has spent the past dozen years as a lobbyist, is a credible candidate,
and Democrats have done surprisingly well in Kansas during the past few election cycles, but
Roberts is too well-liked to be defeated in 2008.
Roberts’ position is further secured by his close attention to Kansas issues in 16 years in the
House and 12 so far in the Senate.728
Roberts and the Kansas Republican Party have focused on Slattery's time outside Kansas.
Slattery has blasted Roberts' allegiance with President Bush on the war in Iraq, especially
Roberts' tenure as chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee during a period when
intelligence that led up to the war was found to be wrong or greatly exaggerated.729
Slattery has drawn attention with some off-beat ads, but mid-October polls show him trailing
Roberts by a wide margin.730
Roberts has a wide financial lead over Slattery.731
Additionally, McCain looks poised for an easy victory in Kansas, eliminating any chance that
Slattery might have some coattails to latch onto. Roberts should win comfortably.732
Analysis by
Kansas
Race Rating
Solid R
Safe Republican
Republican Favored
Currently Safe
252
Election Results
Candidate
2002
general
2002
primary
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
641,075
83%
$1,038,984
Steven Rosile
(Lib)
70,725
9%
George Cook
(Ref)
65,050
8%
233,642
84%
45,491
16%
Pat Roberts (R)
652,677
62%
$2,305,898
Sally Thompson
(D)
362,380
34%
$659,066
37,243
4%
Pat Roberts (R)
Pat Roberts (R)
Tom Oyler (R)
1996
general
Other
Prior winning
percentages:
$3,473
1994 House (77%); 1992 House (68%);
1990 House (63%); 1988 House (100%);
1986 House (75%); 1984 House (76%);
1982 House (68%); 1980 House (62%)
Kansas 2nd District
Nancy Boyda (D) Incumbent
Born: 08/02/1955, St. Louis, MO
Home: Topeka
Education: BA William Jewell College, 1977
Religion: Christian
Marital status: Married (Steve)
Professional Career: Pharmaceutical Research
Nancy Boyda was born in St. Louis and has lived in Topeka, Kan., for more than 25 years. She
earned a chemistry degree from William Jewell College in Kansas City, Mo., and worked as a
manager of research and development for several pharmaceutical companies. She also is a
former analytical chemist for the Environmental Protection Agency.
Boyda was a Republican until 2003, when she switched parties to take on incumbent Republican
Rep. Jim Ryun.
She taught seventh-grade chemistry before launching her first campaign for public office in 2004.
That year, she lost her bid to unseat Republican Ryun in the 2nd Congressional District. But
Boyda narrowly defeated Ryun in a 2006 rematch.
While she lost her first effort to unseat Ryun, Boyda came back two years later to narrowly upset
the incumbent in a rematch.
Since winning election, Boyda has been targeted by Republicans as one of the country's most
vulnerable Democratic freshmen.
253
Boyda even decided not to attend the Democratic National Convention in 2008 to focus on
winning re-election.
She and her husband, Steve, an attorney, have seven children from previous marriages.733
Lynn Jenkins (R)
Born: 06/10/1963, Topeka, KS
Home: Topeka
Education: AA Kansas State University, 1984; BS Weber State College, 1985
Religion: Methodist
Marital status: Married (Scott)
Elected Office: KS House, 1999-2000; KS Senate, 2001-02; KS Treasurer, 2002-present
Professional Career: Accountant
Lynn Jenkins was born in Topeka but raised on a dairy farm near Holton (and still retains some of
her farming skills, as demonstrated during a recent goat-milking contest at the Shawnee County
Fair). She has since returned to Topeka where she now lives. She received a bachelor's degree
from Weber State College in 1983.
After she left college in 1985, she became a certified public accountant, something she's pointed
to repeatedly in past campaigns, even her race for Congress.
She served a single term in the Kansas House before being elected to the Senate in 2000.
However, she didn't finish her term there because she ran successfully for state treasurer in
2002. Voters re-elected her in 2006.
Jenkins and her husband, Scott, have two children.734
Race Notes:
Boyda is in an intensely tough fight to hold the seat for a second term against Republican state
Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, who edged the previous GOP occupant of the seat, Ryun, in the August
primary. Boyda stopped Ryun’s bid for a sixth term in 2006 by riding a wave of national antiRepublican sentiment, and she has successfully positioned herself as a centrist in this
conservative Topeka-based district. But economic issues are now dominating the race, and
Jenkins is touting her credentials as a certified public accountant and is campaigning on
opposition to income tax increases. Boyda and Jenkins are virtually tied in overall fundraising.735
The district leans Republican in registration and had been represented by the GOP since 1995. It
voted for President Bush with 59 percent in 2004.736
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Nancy Boyda (D)
114,139
51%
$726,738
Jim Ryun (R)
106,329
47%
$1,075,223
5,094
2%
Other
2006 primary
Nancy Boyda (D)
2004 general
Jim Ryun (R)
165,325
56%
$1,136,464
Nancy Boyda (D)
121,532
41%
$1,105,838
7,579
3%
Other
Unopposed
254
255
Louisiana
Electoral Votes:
9
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
1,102,169
56.72%
Kerry
820,299
42.22%
Other
20,638
1.01%
281,870
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
56.72%
42.22%
2000
52.55%
44.88%
1996
39.94%
52.01%
1992
40.97%
45.58%
1988
54.27%
44.06%
1984
60.77%
38.18%
1980
51.20%
45.75%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 09
Obama
57.4%
Clinton
35.6%
Edwards
3.4%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 09
Huckabee
43.2%
McCain
41.9%
Romney
6.3%
Party Breakdown
Governor
"Bobby" Jindal (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
3
4
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
23
16
0
State House
53
50
2
9:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
1,520,401
Republican
731,049
Other
644,952
0
Total
2,896,402
As Of
10/1/2008
VEP 2008
3,159,759
VEP Turnout 2004
60.78%
4,293,204
Total population
25
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
522,334
12.2%
65 years and over
2,673,719
62.3%
Non-Hispanic White
1,369,250
31.9%
Black
61,801
1.4%
Asian
136,562
3.2%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
New Orleans
239,124
Baton Rouge
227,071
Shreveport
199,569
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
5.2%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$40,926
U.S.
$50,740
256
LOUISIANA – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) Incumbent
Born: 11-23-1955, Arlington, VA
Home: New Orleans
Education: LA St. U., B.A. 1977
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: married (Frank Snellings)
Elected Office: LA House of Reps., 1979–88; LA Treasurer, 1987–96.
Professional Career: n/a
Sen. Mary Landrieu is running for her third term in the U.S. Senate.
At 23, she became the youngest woman ever elected to the Louisiana state legislature.
She was first elected treasurer in 1987 when she led the primary field of four with 43 percent of
the vote and her run-off opponent, Kevin Reilly, dropped out. In 1991, Landrieu was unopposed
for re-election as Louisiana state treasurer.
In 1995 she ran for governor, and in the September primary finished third.
Landrieu entered the 1996 U.S. Senate race still stinging from 1995's loss in the gubernatorial
primary.
She was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996 by little more than 50 percent — about 12,000 votes
— defeating Republican Woody Jenkins.
In her 2002 bid for re-election, Landrieu easily led a field of nine in the state's open primary.737
In the Senate, Landrieu’s voting record has been among the more conservative Democrats.
Landrieu was the only Democrat who co-sponsored Sam Brownback’s bills to prohibit human
cloning for reproduction or research. She supported drilling in ANWR and voted for the Iraq war
resolution.
She was an obvious Republican target in 2002, because of the closeness of her margin in 1996
and because George W. Bush carried Louisiana in 2000, but she held her seat.738
In 2002, Landrieu got 46 percent of the vote in the primary and faced Republican challenger
Suzanne Haik Terrell in a runoff. Landrieu defeated Terrell with 52 percent of the vote, despite
Terrell's aggressive backing by President Bush and other senior Republicans.739
Hurricane Katrina put her in the national spotlight. In response to the post-Katrina comment by
George W. Bush that nobody “anticipated the breach of the levees,” she said, “Everybody
anticipated the breach of the levees, Mr. President.” In early September, Landrieu said on
national television that if anyone, including Bush, criticized the state and local government
response to Katrina, "I might likely have to punch him. Literally."
In 2007, on the Homeland Security Committee, she became chairman of the new Disaster
Recovery Subcommittee. She became co-chair with Olympia Snowe of the new bipartisan
Common Ground Coalition.740
257
John Kennedy (R)
Born: 11/21/1951, Zachary, LA
Home: Madisonville
Education: Vanderbilt Univ., 1973; JD Univ. of VA, 1977; BCL Oxford Univ., 1979
Religion: United Methodist
Marital status: married (Becky)
Elected Office: State Treasurer 3 terms, Secretary of the Department of Revenue, Special
Counsel to Governor Roemer and Secretary of Governor Roemer’s Cabinet.
Professional Career: attorney and partner in the Baton Rouge and New Orleans law firm of
Chaffe McCall741
Kennedy, a lawyer from Madisonville, is Louisiana's state treasurer, a job that he has held since
2000. He is in his third term, recently elected without opposition in 2007. In that position, he
742
manages and invests state finances.
Before becoming state treasurer, Kennedy had run for attorney general and lost.743
Kennedy was secretary of the Department of Revenue during the first term of former Republican
Gov. Mike Foster, from 1996 to 2000.
He also worked as special counsel to former Gov. Buddy Roemer, who was in office for one term
from 1988 to 1992.744
Kennedy has toyed with the idea of other political offices. He considered a run for governor in
2003 but changed his mind and decided to run for re-election as state treasurer instead.745
In 2004, Kennedy was a Democrat running for the Senate on a populist platform. He came in
third.746
In 2007, he considered running for attorney general but again decided to seek re-election to his
current post. 747
Kennedy was wooed by then-White House political strategist Karl Rove to switch parties last
year.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee calls Kennedy the top candidate it is supporting
this election season.748
On the campaign trail in 2008, Kennedy pitches himself as a conservative reformer who will work
against Washington politics.749
Kennedy is an adjunct professor at LSU Law School and is a substitute teacher for East Baton
Rouge Parish public schools.
He resides in Madisonville, Louisiana, with his wife Becky and their son, Preston.750
258
Race Notes:
Although the GOP had hoped it could unseat Landrieu with state Treasurer Kennedy, Kennedy
has failed to make the race as competitive as expected.
Kennedy's campaign appears so in need of traction that it issued a statement in mid-October
under the headline "Kennedy Pulls Within Five Points!" -- in Kennedy's own poll.
The NRSC decided to pull out of Louisiana in mid-October, only to reverse course the next week
751
and buy more ad time.
Landrieu is probably the only Democratic senator up in 2008 whose own re-election was not a
slam-dunk. Her standing is due less to any mistakes she has made and more to the changing
demographics of the state: Many Democrats left Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005.752
Spending a weary season on the defense, Republicans had hoped for a chance at a pickup in
Louisiana. Although Landrieu looked vulnerable earlier this year, she has run a solid campaign
and looks to be safe in the most recent polls.
President Bush headlined a private fundraiser for Kennedy earlier this year.753 Kennedy had
endorsed Kerry in 2004, but now says that was a mistake.754
The Democrats have aired a series of ads labeling Kennedy as a flip-flopper and "one confused
politician" for running as a conservative and embracing the Republicans after running and losing
a Senate race in 2004 as a liberal Democrat and backer of Kerry's presidential bid.
In return, Kennedy and the GOP have campaigned on a theme of changing the spending
environment in Washington by "changing the senator." They have labeled Landrieu one of the
biggest liberals in the Senate and a backer of abortion rights who is "just too liberal for Louisiana."
Landrieu also points to a study by The National Journal that says she is "at the center of the
Senate" as one of its moderates, with 48 senators more liberal than her and 48 more
conservative.755
Both Landrieu and Kennedy accused each other of hypocrisy, record distortions, position flipflops and misrepresentations of facts.756
Democrats have been relentless in their attacks on Kennedy, a Democrat who switched parties in
2007 before winning re-election as state treasurer.
"This is the strongest [Landrieu] has been" heading into an election, said Bernie Pinsonat, a
Baton Rouge-based pollster with Southern Media & Opinion Research.757
Analysis by
Louisiana
Race Rating
Lean D
New Likely Democratic
Leans Democrat
259
Pollster
Dates
Recent Poll Results
N/Pop Kennedy Landrieu Fontanesi Undecided Other Margin
Rasmussen 10/21/08 500 LV
43
53
-
3
1
+10D
Rasmussen 9/25/08 500 LV
41
54
-
3
2
+13D
Election Results
Candidate
2002 runoff
Mary Landrieu (D)
638,654
52%
$7,384,554
Suzanne Haik Terrell
(R)
596,642
48%
$2,760,276
573,347
46%
Suzanne Haik Terrell
(R)
339,506
27%
John Cooksey (R)
171,752
14%
Tony Perkins (R)
119,776
10%
41,952
3%
Mary Landrieu (D)
852,945
50%
$2,504,815
Woody Jenkins (R)
847,157
50%
$1,878,242
2002 primary Mary Landrieu (D)
Other
1996 runoff
Total Votes
Louisiana 4th District
Paul Carmouche (D)
Born: June 23, 1943, Napoleonville, La.
Home: Shreveport.
Education: Nicholls State University (B.A., 1966); Loyola University (J.D., 1969)
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Marti)
Elected Office: District Attorney for Caddo Parish
Paul Carmouche practiced law in private practice, before being elected Caddo Parish District
Attorney.
He served as Chief Counsel for the Caddo Indigent Defender’s Office.
He was elected District Attorney for Caddo Parish, Louisiana, in 1978 and has served for five
terms.
Carmouche served as Chief Counsel for the Caddo Indigent Defender’s Office.
He has served on numerous Governor's Commissions, including the Louisiana Commission on
Law Enforcement and the State Sentencing Guidelines Commission.
Carmouche has lectured on Trial Tactics and Rules of Evidence at legal seminars.758
Willie Banks (D)
Home: LaCamp, La
Education: BA Southern Univ.; JD Southern Univ.
Religion: Baptist
Marital Status: Married (Eunice)
260
Elected Office: No prior elected office.
Colonel Willie Banks has served as Chapter 13 Bankruptcy Trustee for the Western District of
Louisiana, Alexandria Division for the last ten years.
Banks is a native of Plaquemine Louisiana and was educated in the public schools there.
Banks received an Army ROTC Commission in 1967 and Served in Worldwide assignments
during his 27 year military career.
Banks’ last assignment prior to retirement was as Chief of Staff of the Army Reserve Personnel
Center in St. Louis Missouri.
Banks left active duty to attend Law School while remaining on active in the Army Reserves.
Banks worked on the staff of the States Attorney General and in the Administrations of New
Orleans Mayors Moon Landrieu and Ernest Morial.
Banks served as Town Attorney for the Town of New Llano.759
John Fleming (R)
Born: 07/05/1951, Meridian, MS
Home: Minden
Education: BS Univ. of MA, 1972; MD Univ. of MA, 1976
Religion: Southern Baptist
Marital Status: Married (Cindy)
Elected Office: Webster Parish Coroner, 1996-2000
Professional Experience: Physician, Business Owner
John Fleming is a Louisiana Physician and owner of a small business medical practice.
Fleming served as a Medical Officer in the United States Navy.
He was awarded the Louisiana Family Doctor of the Year in 2007.
Fleming has served as a Deacon, Sunday School teacher, and School Department Director at
First Baptist of Minden.
He medical practice, which is a small business, and several non-medical businesses that he
owns provide over 500 jobs to Louisianians.
Fleming is the author of "Preventing Addiction: What Parents Must Know to Immunize their Kids
Against Drug and Alcohol Addiction."760
Chris Gorman (R)
Born: 1969, Shreveport, La.
Home: Shreveport
Education: BAAS University of North Texas, 1995; MBA Harvard University, 1999
Religion: Baptist
Marital Status: Married (Jaci)
Professional Experience: Business Executive
Chris Gorman is the Executive Vice President of Tango Transport, which is Louisiana's largest
trucking company.
261
After graduating from college, Gorman moved his family to Oklahoma to take over the
transportation consulting business his father had launched.
Gorman’s Oklahoma consulting company flourished: numerous jobs were created, revenue
tripled and service was provided to over 3,000 clients nationwide.
In 1999, Gorman attended the Executive MBA Program at Harvard University.
Campaign website: http://www.gorman08.com/about/
In 2004, Gorman moved his family to Shreveport and joined his father and brother who were
running Tango Transport, a trucking company owned by the Gorman family.
In 2007, Gorman was selected by Governor-Elect Bobby Jindal to serve on the Transition Team
as a member of the Transportation Group of the Economic Growth Advisory Council.
Gorman serves as a member of Louisiana Association of Business and Industry’s Energy
761
Policy.
The Race:
The new occupant of this conservative-leaning, Shreveport-based district won’t be known until
Dec. 6 because the September primary was delayed by a hurricane.
Neither party’s primary in October produced a winner because no candidate from either party got
an outright majority.
And so Nov. 4, general Election Day everywhere else, will feature two runoff primaries: John
Fleming, a physician, and Chris Gorman, a transportation company executive, will compete on
the Republican side, and because of the district’s demographics, either one should have a slight
edge in the finals.
On the Democratic side, Paul Carmouche, the veteran district attorney in Shreveport, is favored
to win the nomination over Willie Banks, a bankruptcy trustee.762
4th Congressional District incumbent Jim McCrery’s decision to retire put a relatively safe
Republican seat up for grabs.763
Carmouche, a district attorney, had been expected to avoid a runoff by winning a majority of
votes.
Carmouche had raised far more money than three opponents, but he captured just 48 percent of
the vote.
Carmouche will face Retired Army Col. Willie Banks received 23 % of the vote to make the runoff
for the Democratic nomination.764
The GOP primary in the 4th District has wealthy candidates spending their own fortunes: John
Fleming and Chris Gorman.765
Fleming, a Navy veteran and owner of several Subway restaurants, received 35 % of the vote.
Gorman received 34 %.766
262
Election Results
Candidate
2006 primary
Total Votes
Jim McCrery (R)
77,078
57%
$2,246,203
Artis Cash (D)
22,757
17%
$7,619
Patti Cox (D)
17,788
13%
Chester Kelley (R)
16,649
12%
2004 primary
Jim McCrery (R)
Unopposed
2002 primary
Jim McCrery (R)
114,649
72%
42,340
26%
3,104
2%
0
68%
John Milkovich (D)
Other
1988 primary
Jim McCrery (R)
$79,783
$939,484
$1,117,836
Louisiana 6th District
Don Cazayoux (D) Incumbent
Born: 01/17/1964, New Roads, LA.
Home: New Roads, LA
Education: BS Louisiana State University, 1985; MA Louisiana State University, 1993; JD
Georgetown University, 1991
Religion: Catholic: Catholic
Marital Status: Married (Cherie)
Elected Office: LA House, 1999-2008
Professional Career: Lawyer.
Donald Cazayoux was in New Roads, where he still resides. He earned a bachelor's and a
master's at Louisiana State University and a law degree at Georgetown University.767
Cazayoux served as a prosecutor in Pointe Coupee Parish.768
Cazayoux is a former state legislator. He was elected to the Louisiana House of Representatives
in 1999.769
In the Louisiana Legislature, Cazayoux voted as a moderate, supporting anti-abortion bills and
criminal justice measures to toughen penalties on sex offenders.
He won a special election to the U.S. House in May 2008. He filled the seat vacated by former
Rep. Richard Baker.
Cazayoux and his wife, Cherie, have three children.
Bill Cassidy (R)
Born: 09/28/1957 in Highland Park, IL
Home: Baton Rouge
Education: BS Louisiana State University, 1979; MD Louisiana State University, 1983
Religion: Christian
Marital Status: Married (Laura)
Elected Office: Louisiana Senate. Re-elected in 2007.
Professional Career: Physician
Bill Cassidy was born in Highland Park, Ill., and raised in Baton Rouge where he now lives.
Cassidy received a bachelor's degree from Louisiana State University and studied medicine at
Louisiana State University Medical School in New Orleans.
263
Cassidy is a physician who teaches at Earl K. Long Hospital in Baton Rouge.
770
Cassidy co-founded the Greater Baton Rouge Community Clinic which provides free dental and
771
health care to the working uninsured.
He first ran for elective office in December 2006, when he won a state Senate seat in a special
election. He was re-elected the next year.
Cassidy and wife, Laura, have three children.772
Michael Jackson (No Party)
Born: 09/22/1965, Baton Rouge, LA
Home: Baton Rouge
Education: BA Southern University; JD Southern University
Religion: Baptist
Marital Status: Married (Stephanie)
Michael Jackson was born and raised in Baton Rouge where he now lives. Jackson received a
bachelor's degree from Southern University and a law degree from Southern University Law
School.
Jackson, partner in a Baton Rouge law firm, has been a member of the Louisiana House of
Representatives since 2000. Term limits bar him from another term in the state House. He was a
member of the Louisiana National Guard from 1984-88.
Jackson is a lifelong Democrat who qualified for the congressional race as an independent after
state and national parties indicated they were backing incumbent Cazayoux, a former colleague
of Jackson in the state House.
Despite running as an independent, Jackson said he considers himself a Democrat and would
caucus with Democrats and join the Congressional Black Caucus.
Jackson and wife, Stephanie, have two daughters.773
Race Notes:
This spring, Cazayoux was one of three Democrats who won special elections in districts given
up by Republicans (Richard H. Baker in this case).
Cazayoux is the most politically vulnerable of the trio for three reasons: The district remains
reliably Republican. The party’s nominee, physician and state Sen. Bill Cassidy, is running a solid
campaign. And there’s a third candidate in the race who could take votes away from Cazayoux:
state Rep. Michael Jackson, who ran for the open seat as a Democrat this spring and is running
now as an independent.
Jackson is the only black candidate running in this Baton Rouge-area district, which is about onethird African-American.774
Republicans hope that they can take back the 6th District, which was held by the GOP for 33
years until Cazayoux's win in May, 2008.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has bought up television spots from late
September until the Nov. 4 election.
Cazayoux is running on his three-month record in Congress.
264
Cassidy is running on the record he has built in the state Senate for the last year and a half.
775
Independent bid of state Rep. Jackson could divert enough of the Democrat vote to allow Cassidy
776
to win the district back to Republicans.
Cazayoux defeated Michael Jackson in the April Democratic primary.777
Black voters make up 36 % of the electorate in the district.
778
The three-way race for the 6th district will also be determined by which candidate best attracts
779
undecided voters, and picks off some of his rival’s assumed base.
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
2006 primary Richard Baker (R)
94,658
83%
$1,604,762
Richard Fontanesi
(Lib)
19,648
17%
189,106
72%
$1,090,347
Rufus Craig (D)
50,732
19%
$17,346
Edward Galmon (D)
22,031
8%
146,932
84%
Rick Moscatello (I)
27,898
16%
$790,953
265
Michigan
Electoral Votes:
17
Lean Dem (Cook Rating)
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
7:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
9:00 PM ET
All polls close at 8:00PM local time. Most of the state is in ETZ, however 4 counties are in CTZ and
do not close until 9:00PM ET including: Dickinson, Gobegic, Iron, Menominee.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
2,479,183
51.23%
Bush
2,313,746
47.81%
Other
46,323
0.96%
165,437
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
47.81%
51.23%
2000
46.14%
51.28%
1996
38.48%
51.69%
1992
36.38%
43.77%
1988
53.57%
45.67%
1984
59.23%
40.24%
1980
48.99%
42.50%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Jan. 15
Clinton
55%
“uncommitted”
45%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Jan. 15
Romney
38.9%
McCain
29.7%
Huckabee
16.1%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Jennifer Granholm (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
6
9
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
17
21
0
State House
58
52
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
7,352,758
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
7,449,633
VEP Turnout 2004
66.86%
10,071,822
Total population
State Pop. Rank
1,280,152
12.7%
65 years and over
7,812,806
77.6%
Non-Hispanic White
1,442,470
14.3%
Black
237,642
2.4%
Asian
402,797
4.0%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Detroit
916,952
Grand Rapids
193,627
Warren
134,223
Rate
Rate Rank
6th highest in U.S.
State Rate
8.7%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$47,950
U.S.
$50,740
266
Proposal 1. Medical marijuana. Statute allowing medical use of marijuana.
The proposed law would: • Permit physician approved use of marijuana by registered patients
with debilitating medical condition including cancer, glaucoma, HIV, AIDS, hepatitis C, MS and
other conditions as may be approved by the Department of Community Health. • Permit
registered individuals to grow limited amounts of marijuana for qualifying patients in an enclosed,
locked facility. • Require Department of Community Health to establish an identification card
system for patients qualified to use marijuana and individuals qualified to grow marijuana. •
Permit registered and unregistered patients and primary caregivers to assert medical reasons for
using marijuana as a defense to any prosecution involving marijuana. Should this proposal be
adopted? (Yes, No)
Proposal 2. Stem cells. Amendment removing some restrictions on stem cell research.
"The proposed constitutional amendment would: • Expand use of human embryos for any
research permitted under federal law subject to the following limits: the embryos-- -- are created
for fertility treatment purposes; -- are not suitable for implantation or are in excess of clinical
needs; -- would be discarded unless used for research; -- were donated by the person seeking
fertility treatment. • Provide that stem cells cannot be taken from human embryos more than 14
days after cell division begins. • Prohibit any person from selling or purchasing human embryos
for stem cell research. • Prohibit state and local laws that prevent, restrict or discourage stem cell
research, future therapies and cures. Should this proposal be adopted? (Yes, No)"
MICHIGAN – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Carl Levin (D) Incumbent
Born: June 28, 1934; Detroit
Hometown: Detroit
Education: Swarthmore Col., B.A. 1956; Harvard U. LL.B 1959
Religion: Jewish
Martial Status: Married, Barbara
Elected Office: Michigan Civil Rights Commission general counsel, 1964-67; Detroit chief
appellate defender, 1968-69; Detroit City Council 1970-78
Professional Career: Attorney; Public Service, Taught at Wayne State University and Unversity
of Detroit
Sen. Levin is seeking a sixth term in the Senate.
Carl M. Levin was born in Detroit, where he still resides. He graduated from Detroit's Central High
School in 1952. He earned a bachelor's degree in 1956 from Swarthmore College and a law
degree from Harvard Law School in 1959.
Levin became an assistant attorney general in 1964, handling civil rights cases. The 1967 Detroit
race riots prompted him to run for the Detroit City Council, where he served from 1970 to 1978.
He taught at Wayne State University and the University of Detroit.
Levin was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1978 and has become increasingly popular while
serving as Michigan's senior senator.
He was re-elected in 1984, 1990, 1996 and 2002.
267
He has emerged as a leading Democratic voice on military affairs, the war in Iraq and
investigating government programs.
His older brother, Sander "Sandy" Levin, has served in the U.S. House since 1983.
Levin is chair of the Senate Armed Services committee and the permanent subcommittee on
investigations.
Levin and his wife, Barbara Halpern, have three daughters.
780
State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk (R)
Born: July 31, 1955; Kalamazoo
Hometown: Kalamazoo
Education: Not Stated
Martial Status: Married, Erin
Elected Office: Kalamazoo County Commissioner 2000-02, Michigan House 2002-present
Professional Career: Sales & Marketing executive, Non-profit Executive of Alternatives of
Kalamazoo, Pregnancy Care Center
Jacob 'Jack' W. Hoogendyk Jr. was born to Dutch immigrants, who settled in Michigan in 1949.781
In 1999, Hoogendyk ran unsuccessfully for mayor of Portage, Michigan.782
Hoogendyk is a term-limited member of the Michigan House representing part of Kalamazoo
County in southwestern Michigan. He can't run for re-election because he has served the
maximum three two-year terms.
Hoogendyk is one of the Michigan Legislature's most conservative members.
Hoogendyk has proposed measures that would shorten the legislative session, cut lawmakers'
pay, make English the state's official language and call for amending the U.S. Constitution so
only legal citizens would be counted when congressional seats are apportioned. None of those
proposals has become law.783
Hoogendyk briefly ran for governor in the 2006 cycle.784
Hoogendyk and his wife, Erin, have 5 children.785
Race Notes:
Levin has a huge polling and financial advantage over Republican challenger Jack Hoogendyk, a
state lawmaker from Kalamazoo.786
With a little-known state Rep. Hoogendyk as an opponent, Levin has an easy re-election.
Not only is Levin still popular in the state, Michigan has trended increasingly blue in recent cycles.
Levin should have nothing to worry about on Nov. 4.787
Strong fundraising and a powerful slot as chairman of the Armed Services Committee make Levin
a near sure bet to win a sixth term.788
Levin won re-election in 2002 with over 60% of the votes.
As of Sept. 30, Levin had slightly less than $2.6 cash-on-hand; Hoogendyk had $78,446 cash-onhand.789
268
Hoogendyk said he would have opposed the $25 billion in loan guarantees that were
overwhelmingly approved last month by Congress, including all 17 of Michigan's delegation
(including nine Republicans) in the House and Senate.
Hoogendyk has also said he would have voted against the $700-billion Wall Street bailout bill.
Levin said the bailout package and loan guarantees were essential to keep the nation's economy
790
afloat.
Analysis by
Michigan
Race Rating
Solid D
Safe Democratic
Safe Democrat
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
2002 general Carl Levin (D)
Andrew Raczkowski
(R)
1,896,614
61%
$4,133,866
1,185,545
38%
$849,501
2002 primary Carl Levin (D)
Unopposed
1996 general Carl Levin (D)
2,195,738
58%
$6,223,409
1,500,106
40%
$3,208,968
66,731
2%
Ronna Romney (R)
Other
Prior winning
percentages:
1990 (57%); 1984 (52%); 1978 (52%)
Michigan 7th District
Rep. C Tim Walberg, (R) Incumbent.
Born: 04/12/1951,Chicago, IL
Home: Tipton, MI.
Education: BS Fort Wayne Bible College, 1975; MA Wheaton College, 1978
Religion: United Brethren Church
Marital Status: Married (Susan)
Elected Office: MI House, 1983-98
Professional Experience: Pastor.
Tim Walberg was born in Chicago, Ill., and lives in Tipton.
The son of a factory worker, Walberg grew up on Chicago's South Side and first got involved in
politics in 1964 when he put up yard signs for Barry Goldwater, not the easiest task in the
Democratic stronghold.
He earned his bachelor's degree in religious education from Taylor University in 1975 and a
master's degree in communications from Wheaton College in 1978.
Walberg served as pastor of two churches, Grace Fellowship Church in New Haven, Ind., from
1973 to 1977 and United Gospel Church in Tipton, Mich., from 1978 until 1982.
269
He became active with a Lenawee County Right To Life group and ran for the state legislature in
1982.
He served in the Michigan House from 1983 to 1999 until term limits prevented him from seeking
re-election.
In 2000, Walberg moved to the Moody Bible Institute in Chicago as a fundraiser. He retired in
January 2006.
Walberg received about 18 percent of the vote in the 2004 Republican congressional primary,
losing to Joe Schwarz. Two years later, Walberg defeated Schwarz with 53 percent of the vote,
helped by a conservative message and funding from the Washington-based Club for Growth.
Walberg defeated Democrat Sharon Renier in the 2006 election with 49.9 percent of the vote.
Renier, who was significantly underfunded, received just under 46 percent.
Walberg and his wife, Sue, have three grown children.
791
Mark Schauer (D)
Born: 10/02/1961, Howell, MI
Home: Battle Creek
Education: BA Albion College, 1984; MPA Western Michigan University, 1987; MA Michigan
State University, 1994
Marital Status: Married (Christine)
Elected Office: Battle Creek City Commission, 1995-97; MI House, 1997-2002; MI Senate, 2002present
Professional Experience: Public Official
Mark Schauer was born in Howell, about 30 miles east of Lansing, and was the valedictorian of
his high school class. His father was a high school teacher and his mother worked as a nurse. He
now lives in Battle Creek.
Schauer received a bachelor's degree from Albion College in 1984 and master's degrees from
Western Michigan University in 1987 and Michigan State University in 1994.
Schauer has served as the leader of the state Senate Democrats since 2007 and has served in
the state Senate since 2003.
Schauer was elected to a state House seat representing a district including his home of Battle
Creek in 1996 and served three terms before being elected to the state Senate.
Prior to his time in the Legislature, he served as a Battle Creek city commissioner from 19941996.
Schauer began his career as an urban planner in Calhoun County and worked as the executive
director of the Community Action Agency of South Central Michigan for five years.
He also served as coordinator for the Calhoun County Human Services Coordinating Council
from 1992-1996.
State Senate Minority Leader Schauer announced in August 2007 that he would challenge
vulnerable freshman Republican Tim Walberg in Congress, and quickly amassed an impressive
fund-raising total.792
270
Schauer had pledged to Senate Democrats that he would serve out his full four-year term as
minority leader through 2010, but changed his mind after being approached by rank-and-file
constituents and party leaders.
This is Mark Schauer's first campaign for Congress.
793
Schauer is married to Christine and is the father of three stepchildren. He and his wife have one
794
grandson.
The Race:
Democratic state Sen. Mark Schauer’s ability to out-fundraise Walberg is fueling Democratic
hopes that he’ll have the resources to unseat the first-term congressman, who won the seat with
a hair less than half the vote in 2006.
Democrats argue that Walberg is too conservative for the southern rural district; he unseated an
incumbent, Joe Schwarz, in the 2006 GOP primary by running to his right with help from the
conservative Club for Growth. The anti-tax organization is taking a substantial position again for
Walberg, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is putting money behind
Schauer — who has also been endorsed by Schwarz.795
The state of Michigan's economy has been the leading issue in the campaign, and Schauer has
highlighted his work to retain manufacturing jobs in the district.796
Schauer took in $458,000 in the latest quarter, outpacing freshman Rep. Tim Walberg in the hotly
contested race for Michigan's south-central congressional district.797
Polls have shown Schauer ahead but veteran political observers in the state say the race is too
close to call.798
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
2006 primary
2004 general
Total Votes
Tim Walberg (R)
122,348
50%
$1,225,137
Sharon Renier (D)
112,665
46%
$55,794
Other
10,013
4%
Tim Walberg (R)
33,245
53%
Joe Schwarz (R)
29,330
47%
Joe Schwarz (R)
176,053
58%
$750,290
Sharon Renier (D)
109,527
36%
$8,742
16,062
5%
Other
Michigan 9th District
Joseph Knollenberg (R) Incumbent
Born: 11/28/1933, Mattoon, IL
Home: Bloomfield Twp.
Education: BS Eastern Illinois University, 1955
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Sandie)
Professional Career: Insurance Agent
Joe Knollenberg was born and raised in the small mid-Illinois town of Mattoon. He resides in
Bloomfield Hills. Knollenberg was the fifth of 13 children. He worked his way through Eastern
271
Illinois University and graduated in 1955 with a bachelor's degree in social science. He then
served for two years with the U.S. Army.
After leaving the Army, Knollenberg entered the insurance business, where he spent his
professional life in sales and sales management. Knollenberg owned his own insurance agency
in Troy.
He was first elected to the U.S. House in 1992.
Joe Knollenberg's suburban Detroit district is home to the headquarters of Chrysler LLC and
Delphi Corp., the large auto supplier that has been undergoing bankruptcy procedures, so the
congressman has stayed attuned to the needs of the auto industry.
Knollenberg and his wife, Sandie, have two sons.
799
Gary Peters (D)
Born: 12/01/1958, Pontiac, MI
Home: Bloomfield Twp.
Education: BA Alma Col., 1980; MBA Univ. of Detroit, 1984; JD Wayne St. Univ., 1989; MA MI St.
Univ.
Religion: N/A
Marital status: Married (Colleen)
Elected Office: MI Senate, 1994-2002; MI Lottery Commissioner, 2003-07
Professional Career: Financial Consultant; Military: USNR, 1993-2005
Gary Peters was born in Pontiac and now lives in Bloomfield. He received a bachelor's degree
from Alma College in 1980, a master's degree from the University of Detroit in 1984 and a law
degree from Wayne State University in 1989.
Peters had served in government and elected office for many years before deciding to challenge
Republican Rep. Joe Knollenberg. Peters was appointed by Gov. Jennifer Granholm to head the
state lottery in 2003 and served for four years. He received the appointment after narrowly losing
to Republican Mike Cox in the 2002 campaign for state attorney general.
Prior to his stint at the lottery, Peters served as a state senator representing parts of Oakland
County from 1995-2002. Peters had previously served on the Rochester Hills City Council and
lost a state senate campaign in 1990.
Peters worked in the financial sector for Merrill Lynch and UBS PaineWebber for more than 20
years. He also served as a lieutenant commander in the U.S. Naval Reserve from 1993-2005.
Peters decided to challenge Rep. Knollenberg after the veteran congressman had a surprisingly
close contest in 2006.
Peters is married to Colleen Ochoa and they have three children.800
Race Notes:
Knollenberg, who received a scare in 2006, faces Michigan Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters.801
Knollenberg maintained a 4-to-1 advantage over former state Sen. Peters in cash on hand on
Sept. 30, but Peters has outraised the congressman in the past quarter. His chances are boosted
by Barack Obama’s strong showing in the state and a major investment by the national
Democratic Party. The DCCC has committed $1 million for advertising, while its Republican
counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, recently canceled a purchase of
$315,000 in ad time for the suburban Detroit district. Knollenberg’s margin of victory when he won
802
his eighth term in 2006 was his lowest ever.
272
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
Joe Knollenberg
(R)
142,390
52%
$3,105,161
Nancy Skinner (D)
127,620
46%
$403,726
6,170
2%
Joe Knollenberg
(R)
46,713
70%
Patricia Godchaux
(R)
20,211
30%
Joe Knollenberg
(R)
199,210
58%
$1,412,320
Steven Reifman
(D)
134,764
40%
$120,386
6,825
2%
Other
2006 primary
2004 general
Other
2002 (58%); 2000 (56%); 1998 (64%);
1996 (61%); 1994 (68%); 1992 (58%)
273
Minnesota
Electoral Votes:
10
First Polls Open:
8:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
1,445,014
51.09%
Bush
1,346,695
47.61%
Other
36,678
1.30%
98,319
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
47.61%
51.09%
2000
45.50%
47.91%
1996
34.96%
51.10%
1992
31.85%
43.48%
1988
45.90%
52.91%
1984
49.54%
49.72%
1980
42.56%
46.50%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Obama
66.4%
Clinton
32.2%
Edwards
0.5%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Romney
41.6%
McCain
22.1%
Huckabee
20.0%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Tim Pawlenty (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
5
3
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
45
22
0
State House
85
48
1
9:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
3,157,939
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
3,811,577
VEP Turnout 2004
77.21%
5,197,621
Total population
21
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
636,216
12.2%
65 years and over
4,455,850
85.7%
Non-Hispanic White
232,909
4.5%
Black
182,473
3.5%
Asian
205,896
4.0%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Minneapolis
377,392
St. Paul
277,251
Rochester
99,121
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
5.9%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$55,802
U.S.
$50,740
274
MINNESOTA – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Norm Coleman (R) Incumbent
Born: 08-17-1949, Brooklyn, NY
Home: St. Paul
Education: Hofstra U., B.A. 1971, U. of IA, J.D. 1976
Religion: Jewish
Marital status: married (Laurie)
Elected Office: St. Paul Mayor, 1993-2001.
Professional Career: MN Atty. Gen.'s office, 1976-93.
Coleman is running for his second term in the Senate.
Norm Coleman was born in the New York City borough of Brooklyn and lives in St. Paul, Minn.
He received his bachelor's degree from Hofstra University on Long Island, where he led protests
against the Vietnam War as a long-haired student senate president.
After graduation, he worked briefly for New York City Mayor John Lindsay and then earned his
law degree from the University of Iowa. That led to a job with the attorney general's office in
Minnesota, where he worked for 17 years.
In 1993, he won the St. Paul mayor's race as a Democrat, but by 1997, he left the party and won
re-election as a Republican.
As mayor, Coleman was credited with helping to revitalize the city. During his eight-year tenure,
the city attracted a National Hockey League team, the Minnesota Wild, and did not raise taxes.
He lost the governor's race to independent candidate Jesse Ventura in 1998.803
He did not run for reelection as mayor in 2001 and was considering running for governor again
when Bush called and asked him to run for the Senate in 2002.804
Coleman was elected to the Senate in 2002 against Democrat Walter Mondale, who entered the
race after incumbent Sen. Paul Wellstone was killed in a plane crash during the campaign.
Coleman won with 50 percent of the vote to Mondale's 47 percent.805
Coleman started a leadership PAC to help fellow Republican candidates. In 2004, he ran for the
chairmanship of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, but lost by one vote to
Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.
In March 2006, Coleman raised eyebrows by publicly calling on Bush to put in a new team at the
White House. Two weeks later, Bush announced that he had accepted the resignation of his chief
of staff, Andy Card.
After Republicans lost their congressional majorities in 2006, Coleman looked ahead to his own
2008 reelection and began to more aggressively highlight the bipartisan aspects of his record as
well as the work of his senatorial office on behalf of constituents.
He has the unusual distinction of having served as 1996 state co-chairman for Bill Clinton and
2000 state chairman for George W. Bush.806
He and his wife, Laurie, have two children.807
275
Al Franken (DFL)
Born: May 21, 1951, New York
Home: St. Paul
Education: BA Harvard
Religion: Jewish (Minnesota Public Radio, Candidate Profile)
Marital status: married (Franni)
Professional Career: comedian, author, radio host
The 2008 Senate race is Al Franken's first run for elected office.
Franken was born in New York City and moved with his family to Albert Lea, Minn., at age four. A
few years later, the Franken moved to the Minneapolis suburb of St. Louis Park.
Franken received a bachelor's degree from Harvard University, and after college continued to
hone a comedy act he'd been developing for a number of years with a childhood friend, Tom
Davis.
Franken and Davis were noticed by Lorne Michaels, who hired them as writers for the first season
of "Saturday Night Live." Franken would go on to write and perform for the show from 1975-80
and again from 1985-1995.
Al Franken achieved renown for his years on "Saturday Night Live," where he famously declared
the 1980s "the Al Franken Decade," impersonated various political figures and created the
obsequious self-help guru Stuart Smalley ("I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it,
people like me!").
In 1996, Franken published "Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot and Other Observations." That
launched a second career as a liberal satirist and pundit that saw him publish several subsequent
books including "Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them," and "The Truth (with Jokes)."
Franken spent several years hosting a daily show on the liberal Air America Radio network.
Franken moved back to Minnesota in 2005 where he became an active fund raiser and
campaigner for Democratic candidates in the state.
In early 2007, he stepped down from his radio job and announced he would seek the DemocraticFarmer-Labor endorsement to run for U.S. Senate the following year.
Franken clinched the DFL endorsement in June 2008.
He and his wife, Franni, have two children.808
276
Dean Barkley (I)
Born: August 31, 1950
Home: Plymouth, Minn
Education: BA (Pre-law), University of Minnesota; JD (Law), University of Minnesota
Religion: Lutheran
Marital status: divorced
Professional Career: lawyer
Dean Barkley was born in the small central Minnesota town of Annandale, where his parents
owned the local furniture store. He worked there throughout his youth and ran the store for a time
after his father suffered a heart attack.
Barkley attended the University of Minnesota where he earned both a bachelor's degree and a
law degree.
Beginning in 1992, Barkley made three unsuccessful third-party bids -- for Congress in 1992 and
for the U.S. Senate in 1994 and 1996.
In 1998 he urged former professional wrestler Jesse Ventura to run for governor of Minnesota,
and served as campaign manager guiding Ventura to his surprise victory.
He went on to serve in Ventura's Cabinet. Barkley served as director of planning for the state
during Ventura's administration.
When Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash in 2002, Ventura appointed Barkley
to fill the remaining 62 days on Wellstone's term.
Barkley returned to Minnesota at the beginning of 2003, after which he bounced through a series
of jobs most notably as a bus driver for a company that provided transportation to senior citizens.
More recently, Barkley has practiced law, worked several jobs and managed writer and singer
Kinky Friedman's unsuccessful independent 2006 bid for governor of Texas.
After Ventura opted not to run for U.S. Senate in Minnesota in 2008, Barkley announced he would
run in Ventura's place. 809
Race Notes:
This has become one of the more high-profile Senate races in the country -- first of all, because
Coleman has been considered vulnerable since his narrow victory six years ago against Mondale
and second of all, because of the nature of the opposition: comedian and activist Franken.810
An unusual number of twists and turns and a competitive three-way contest leave the Minnesota
Senate race too close to call.
Franken saw his candidacy nearly implode this summer after writings during his career as a
satirist came back to haunt him. He has since recovered in the polls and has held a small lead in
most October polls.
In a state where third parties matter, the presence of Independence Party candidate Dean
Barkley is drawing support from both major party candidates.811 His support in the polls has
remained in the upper teens.
Immediately upon Franken's entrance into the race, state Republican officials and conservative
bloggers began publicizing years of sometimes off-color or tasteless jokes that Franken made
throughout his career as a comedian and writer -- building an argument that he was
temperamentally unfit to be a member of the U.S. Senate.
277
Those criticisms culminated in the late spring of 2008, when they aired an excerpt from a 13-yearold magazine article about "Saturday Night Live" that quoted Franken making a joking reference
to rape while brainstorming a comedy sketch.
Around the same time, Franken was forced to acknowledge that he had failed to properly pay
taxes in a number of states where had earned incomes going back several years.
Despite several weeks of terrible press, Franken captured the Democratic-Farmer-Labor
endorsement at the party's state convention in early June, and went on to easily win the party
primary in September.
Both candidates have shown a talent for raising large sums of money, which they've spent on
dozens of TV ads talking up their own candidacies while mercilessly bashing their opponent. It's
812
certain to be the most expensive campaign in Minnesota history.
In early October, Coleman announced he would be taking all negative ads off the air.813
Franken has attacked Coleman for his support of President Bush and the Iraq War. He has also
portrayed Coleman as a tool of corporate interests.814
Franken has criticized Coleman for supporting the bailout measure. That stance puts Franken at
odds with his party's Senate leadership and the Democratic presidential nominee, Senator
Barack Obama.815
Coleman has recently been dogged by an accusation that attempted to cast him as beholden to
wealthy benefactors -- much like an earlier report accused him of paying a discount rate to rent a
Washington apartment owned by an influential GOP supporter.
Harper's magazine, citing unnamed sources, reported that a wealthy investment executive and
Coleman campaign contributor Nasser Kazeminy paid for suits bought by Coleman at Nieman
Marcus. The senator and his campaign, while repeatedly declining to discuss the allegation in
detail, maintained that all gifts from friends had been properly reported and followed Senate rules.
Coleman eventually addressed the issue directly, saying that "nobody but me and my wife buy
my suits."816
Analysis:
Coleman faces the same challenge that so many of his GOP colleagues, that is, he is running for
reelection in a difficult year for Republicans. Coleman was on thin ice anyway because Minnesota
is deeply Blue in 2008, and Obama will win the state handily.
Just as John McCain's margin in Georgia might rescue Chambliss, Obama's margin in Minnesota
might elect Democrat Al Franken, the controversial satirist who would be difficult to elect in
another year. Coleman has fallen to even or behind in several recent polls.
Complicating the picture in Minnesota is the independent and Jesse Ventura-backed Dean
Barkley, who actually served in the U.S. Senate for a few weeks after Ventura appointed him to
fill the vacancy caused by the death of Paul Wellstone in late 2002. Barkley is actually winning
about 14 percent of the vote. It is not impossible that he will go still higher.
Many Minnesota observers believe that Barkely is helping Franken rather than Coleman--that is,
Barkley is taking voters who are not keen on Franken, but who do not wish to vote Republican in
2008. It is simply impossible to say what will happen in this race at the moment, but Republicans
can ill afford to lose this seat on top of their many other losses.817
278
Analysis by
Minnesota
Race Rating
Toss Up
New Toss-up
No Clear Favorite
Toss-Up
Recent Poll Results
Pollster
Dates
Not
N/Po Colema Franke Barkle Othe Undecide
Margi
Votin
p
n
n
y
r
d
n
g
Rasmussen
10/22/0
8
500
LV
37
41
17
-
5
-
+4D
Big Ten
10/1922/08
583
LV
34
40
15
-
11
-
+6D
Allstate/National
Journal
10/1620/08
402
RV
36
37
19
-
7
-
+1D
SurveyUSA
10/1618/08
655
LV
41
39
18
-
2
-
+2R
Star Tribune
10/1617/08
1049
LV
36
39
18
-
7
-
+3D
DailyKos.com
(D)/Research 2000
10/1415/08
600
LV
39
41
18
-
2
-
+2D
Quinnipiac/WSJ/Pos
t
10/812/08
1019
LV
36
38
18
-
8
-
+2D
10/7/08
500
LV
37
43
17
-
3
-
+6D
Quinnipiac/WSJ/Pos
t
10/37/08
1076
LV
37
39
17
-
7
-
+2D
MPR/Humphrey
Institute
10/35/08
418
LV
37
41
14
-
8
-
+4D
Rasmussen
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
1,116,697
50% $10,035,279
1,067,246
47%
70,696
3%
195,630
94%
11,678
6%
1,098,493
50%
$7,459,878
Rudy Boschwitz (R)
901,282
41%
$4,385,982
Dean Barkley (Ref)
152,333
7%
$37,240
2002 general Norm Coleman (R)
Walter Mondale
(DFL)
Other
2002 primary Norm Coleman (R)
Jack Shepard (R)
1996 general
Paul Wellstone
(DFL)
$1,833,029
279
st
Minnesota 1 District
Timothy Walz (D) Incumbent
Born: 04/06/1964, West Point, NE
Home: Mankato
Education: BS Chadron State College, 1989; MS Minnesota State University, 2001
Religion: Lutheran
Marital status: Married (Gwen)
Professional Career: Educator; Military: USARNG, 1981-2005
Walz grew up in Nebraska and joined the Army National Guard when he was 17.
When he retired 24 years later in 2005, he held the rank of command sergeant major.
Walz earned his teaching degree in Nebraska, taught school in China for a year through a
Harvard University program, and later established an educational travel company that helped
high school students study in China.
He and his wife moved to Minnesota in 1996 to accept teaching jobs in Mankato. There he taught
high school geography and coached the high school football team to two state championships.
Walz might not have not have entered politics if he had not attempted to enter a 2004 campaign
event for President Bush along with two students. He said campaign staffers demanded to know
whether he supported the president, and barred the students from entering after they discovered
one of them had a John Kerry sticker on his wallet.
Walz had never run for office before and said the experience sparked his interest in politics, first
as a volunteer for the Kerry campaign and then as a congressional candidate in 2006.
Walz was elected in one of the biggest upsets of 2006. He defeated six-term Republican Gil
Gutknecht 53%-47%.818
Brian Davis (R)
Born: 4/13/1958, Waukegan, IL
Home: Rochester
Education: BS Univ. of IL, 1982; MS MIT, 1984; PhD MIT, 1990; MD Univ. of IL, 1992
Religion: Lutheran
Marital status: Married (Lori)
Davis is a cancer doctor at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester.
He is the son of a schoolteacher mother and principal father who paid his way through college by
moving furniture and working as a doorman.
Davis did his residency training in radiation oncology at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
from 1993 to 1996.
He’s been a physician at Mayo Clinic since 1996.819
Davis was elected Olmsted County Republican Party treasurer in 2007.
This is his first run for Congress.
820
280
Race Notes:
The Republican Party’s endorsed candidate, oncologist and neophyte politician Brian Davis, has
not gained much traction against freshman Walz. The incumbent has a serious financial lead in
the district, which runs the width of the southern part of the state.821
Walz, a congressman seeking his second term, would tax the rich and cut taxes on the middle
class, Davis would preserve the Bush tax cuts; Walz supports a push toward developing the next
generation of renewable fuels, Davis would focus on developing the country's domestic energy
reserves and drill for more oil; Walz believes in tackling global warming, Davis questions its
existence as a man-made phenomenon.
The biggest challenge for Davis has been gaining traction in a political environment that has not
favored Republicans. Unlike Walz, whose candidacy two years ago was boosted by an unpopular
822
war and an unpopular president, Davis has been facing mostly head winds.
Republicans had a strong shot at defeating freshman Democrat Tim Walzin nominally Republican
territory that stretches across the southern part of the state, but Walz has held his own, in part by
raising $2.5 million against $955,000 for challenger Brian Davis. A poll Davis released recently
shows him behind, and Walz is now strongly favored to keep his job.823
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Tim Walz (DFL)
141,556
53%
$1,281,136
Gil Gutknecht (R)
126,486
47%
$1,723,707
2006 primary
Tim Walz (DFL)
2004 general
Gil Gutknecht (R)
193,132
60%
$666,410
Leigh Pomeroy
(DFL)
115,088
36%
$58,826
15,569
5%
$7,472
Gregory Mikkelson
(Ind)
Unopposed
Minnesota 3rd District
Ashwin Madia (Democratic Farmer Labor)
Born: 3/ 3/1978, Boston, MA
Home: Maple Grove, MN
Education: New York University, JD Law
University of Minnesota, BA
Religion: N/A
Elected Office: None
Jigar Ashwin Madia, was born in Boston, Mass., to Indian immigrants who later settled in
Minnesota, where he went to high school and college. He now lives in Plymouth.
He received a bachelor's degree from the University of Minnesota and a law degree from New
York University School of Law.
He then joined the U.S. Marine Corps and served from 2003 to 2006, including a tour in Iraq
working on the nation's justice system from September 2005 to March 2006.824
281
Madia finished active duty with the Marine Corps on July 4, 2006. He returned to Minnesota and
825
began practicing.
Madia paid $304, including late fees, to reinstate a suspended state law license, a lapse his
826
campaign staff described as an oversight.
This is Madia's first run for office. He left his job as an attorney in November 2007 to campaign
full-time.
Madia pulled off an April surprise by defeating a better-known state senator for the DemocraticFarmer-Labor Party endorsement.
Madia is single.827
Erik Paulsen (R)
Born: 05/14/1965
Home: Eden Prairie, MN
Education: BA Saint Olaf College, 1987
Religion: Lutheran
Marital status: Married (Kelly)
Elected Office: MN House, 1994-present
Erik Paulsen grew up in Chanhassen and lives in Eden Prairie. He received a bachelor's degree
from St. Olaf College and works as a business analyst at Target Corp.828
Paulsen was elected to the Minnesota House of Representatives in 1994.829
Paulsen served seven terms in the Minnesota House of Representatives, including four years as
Republican Majority Leader from 2002 to 2006 – he served as Majority Leader until Democrats
won control of the chamber in the 2006 election.
This is Paulsen's eighth run for office and his first campaign for Congress.
Paulsen decided to leave his seat in the Minnesota House after his political mentor, U.S. Rep.
Jim Ramstad, R-Minn., announced his retirement in September 2007. Paulsen worked in
Ramstad's Washington, D.C., and Minnesota offices from 1991 to 1994, when he launched his
first campaign.
Paulsen and his wife, Kelly, have four daughters.830
Race Notes:
Democrats see Madia as their best chance to end nearly half a century of GOP control of the
suburban 3rd District. The seat is open because U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, a popular Republican,
is retiring.831
The race to succeed the veteran GOP moderate pits Democrat Ashwin Madia, a lawyer and Iraq
War veteran, against GOP state Rep. Erik Paulsen.
The candidates are closely matched in terms of fundraising, with Paulsen holding a slight cash
advantage ($1.1 million to $955,000) as of Sept. 30.
Paulsen is a polished state legislator who argues that district voters are looking for someone with
experience and a long history in the district.
282
Madia, a 30-year-old first-time candidate, is running under the mantle of change and argues that
Paulsen is too conservative for the suburban Twin Cities district.
Madia has at least one upset victory under his belt: He beat out state Sen. Terri Bonoff to win the
832
endorsement of the state party.
Madia would become the first minority to represent the district if he wins.833
rd
rd
The 3 district hasn't elected a Democrat since 1961. The 3 district voters usually backed Jim
Ramstad by two-to-one or better.834
The district is politically moderate. It's also the wealthiest, best-educated district in the state.
835
Independent ads have attacked Paulsen so harshly that Madia has disavowed them.
Democrats have accused GOP officials of using racial code words against Madia, whose family
836
hails from India.
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Jim Ramstad (R)
Wendy Wilde (DFL)
Total Votes
184,333
65%
$1,424,365
99,588
35%
$67,861
2006 primary
Jim Ramstad (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Jim Ramstad (R)
231,871
65%
$921,476
Deborah Watts
(DFL)
126,665
35%
$36,064
Minnesota 6th District
Michele Bachmann (R) Incumbent
Born: 04/06/1956, Waterloo, IA
Home: Stillwater
Education: BA Winona State University, 1978; JD Oral Roberts University, 1986; LLM College of
William and Mary, 1988
Religion: Lutheran
Marital status: Married (Marcus)
Elected Office: MN Senate, 2000-06
Bachmann grew up in cities across the Midwest and attended Winona State University, where
she met her husband while working on Jimmy Carter's 1976 presidential campaign.
She became disillusioned with Carter and his party’s position on abortion, and gravitated toward
Ronald Reagan and the Republican Party.
Bachmann and her husband, both born-again Christians, moved to Tulsa, where she earned a
degree at Coburn Law School at Oral Roberts University.
After studying tax law at the College of William and Mary, Bachmann landed a job as a U.S.
Treasury Department attorney in St. Paul arguing criminal and civil tax cases.
Her political career began in 1999 with a losing bid for the Stillwater school board.
283
A year later, she won a seat in the state Senate by defeating a moderate Republican incumbent
for the party endorsement and then in the primary. In 2002, she defeated a ten-year Democratic
incumbent when redistricting put them in the same Senate district.
She was a prominent abortion opponent, and gained notoriety in 2004 for leading the Senate fight
for a state constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage.
In 2006, when Republican incumbent Mark Kennedy gave up the 6th District seat to run for
Senate, Bachmann entered the Republican race as the candidate to beat; Bachmann won a
decisive 50%-42%victory over Patty Wetterling.
Bachmann won widespread notice in January 2007 during the State of the Union address.. On his
exit from the House chamber after the speech, Bush signed two autographs for Bachmann. She
clutched his shoulder for nearly 30 seconds, even as he greeted other members, and the
president kissed her on the cheek. Video of the awkward encounter played repeatedly on the
Internet.837
Elwyn Tinklenberg (Democratic Farmer Labor)
Born: 02/26/1950, Princeton, MN
Home: Blaine
Education: BA University of Minnesota
Religion: Methodist
Marital status: Married (Terri)
Elected Office: Mayor of Blaine, 1987-96
Professional Career: Minister, Public Official
Tinklenberg is the former mayor of Blaine.
He is a former Methodist minister who served as state transportation commissioner under former
Independence Party Gov. Jesse Ventura, a popular figure in the 6th.
This year the DFL party got behind Tinklenberg even though he disagrees with its bedrock
support of abortion rights.
This is Tinklenberg's eighth run for office and second run for Congress.838
Race Notes:
Bachmann is now known for wondering on national TV whether Barack Obama "may have antiAmerican views." The comment stoked Democrats including her opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg,
who has collected $1.8 million since she tangled with MSNBC's Chris Matthews on "Hardball."
Bachmann's "Hardball" comments have sent cash pouring into Tinklenberg's campaign from all
50 states and prompted national Democrats to commit $1 million worth of advertising to defeat
her. One of Tinklenberg's new TV ads combines a clip of her "anti-American" comment with video
of former Secretary of State Colin Powell, a Republican who cited the remark as one reason he
chose to break ranks and endorse Obama.
Bachmann could still win a second term in Minnesota's conservative 6th District. Reaction to the
flap has been mixed.839
284
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Michele Bachmann
(R)
151,248
50%
$2,694,789
Patty Wetterling
(DFL)
127,144
42%
$3,179,222
23,557
8%
$17,261
John Binkowski (Ind)
2006 primary
Michele Bachmann
(R)
2004 general
Mark Kennedy (R)
203,669
54%
$2,649,747
Patty Wetterling
(DFL)
173,309
46%
$1,935,813
Unopposed
285
Nebraska
Electoral Votes:
5
1 vote for highest in each CD.
Statewide highest gets 2 votes.
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
9:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
9:00 PM ET
All counties close 9:00PM ET. Majority of state is CTZ. 18 of 93 counties in MTZ. 1 county in both.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
512,814
65.90%
Kerry
254,328
32.68%
Other
11,044
1.42%
258,486
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
65.90%
32.68%
2000
62.25%
33.25%
1996
53.65%
34.95%
1992
46.60%
29.40%
1988
60.16%
39.19%
1984
70.55%
28.81%
1980
65.53%
26.04%
Democrats
Primary Date:
May. 13
Obama
49.4%
Clinton
46.5%
Republicans
Primary Date:
May. 13
McCain
87.0%
Paul
13.0%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Dave Heineman (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
0
3
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
0
0
49
State House
*
*
*
Voter Registration
Democratic
378,943
Republican
552,403
Other
9,934
189,019
Total
1,130,299
As Of
9/25/2008
VEP 2008
1,160,199
VEP Turnout 2004
64.80%
1,774,571
Total population
State Pop. Rank
236,648
13.3%
65 years and over
1,500,380
84.5%
Non-Hispanic White
78,581
4.4%
Black
30,317
1.7%
Asian
133,832
7.5%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Omaha
424,482
Lincoln
248,744
Bellevue city
48,391
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
3.5%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$47,085
U.S.
$50,740
286
Measure 24. Civil rights/affirmative action. Initiative amendment that prohibits government
from discriminating or giving preferential treatment on the basis of race, sex, color,
ethnicity, or national origin.
"Shall the Nebraska Constitution be amended to prohibit the State, any public institution of higher
education, political subdivision or government institution from discriminating against, or granting
preferential treatment to, individuals or groups based upon race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national
origin in operating public employment, education or contracting? Existing court orders are not
invalidated, bona fide qualifications based on sex reasonably necessary to normal operation of
public employment, education or contracting, and actions necessary to obtain federal funds
through federal programs are permitted. A cause of action for violation is created. The
amendment applies to actions after its adoption. (For, Against)"
NEBRASKA – U.S. Senate Race
Former Gov. Mike Johanns (R)
Born: June 18, 1950; Osage, IA
Residence: Lincoln, Neb.
Marital Status: Married (Stephanie)
Education: BA St. Mary's Col., 1971; JD Creighton Univ., 1974
Religion: Catholic
Occupation(s): Attorney; Former U.S. agriculture secretary
Prev. Political Exp.: Lancaster Co. Board, 1982-87; Lincoln City Council, 1989-91; Mayor of
Lincoln, 1991-98; NE Governor, 1999-2005; US Secy. of Agriculture, 2005-07
Mike Johanns was born in Osage, Iowa, and currently resides in Lincoln. He received his
bachelor's degree from St. Mary's College in Winona, Minn., in 1971 and his law degree from
Creighton University in 1974. 840
He started his political career as a Democrat, serving as chairman of the Lancaster Board of
Commissioners in 1982. Johanns switched parties in 1988 and was elected to the Lincoln City
Council in 1989 as an at-large member.
He became mayor of Lincoln in 1991, and was re-elected in 1995.841
He was elected Nebraska Governor in 1998 and won re-election in 2002.
Johanns served three years as U.S. agriculture secretary.
Johanns has never lost a statewide election.
Johanns and his first wife, Connie, have a son and daughter and five grandchildren. They
divorced in 1985, and Johanns married former state Sen. Stephanie Armitage, who had served
with Johanns on the county board, in 1986.842
Scott Kleeb (D)
Born: August 23, 1975; Adana, Turkey
Residence: Hastings, Neb.
Education: BA University of Colorado, 1999; MA Yale University, 2001; PhD Yale University,
2006
Marital Status: Married (Jane)
University; International Relations, Yale University
Religion: Catholic
Prev. Occupation: Ranch Hand; College Professor
287
Kleeb's great-great-grandfather was a homesteader near Broken Bow, Neb.
Kleeb, 33, was born in Adana, Turkey, where his parents taught the children of U.S. military
personnel. He currently lives in Hastings, Nebraska.
He did his undergraduate work in history and political science at the University of Colorado at
Boulder and has a master's degree in international relations and a doctorate in history from Yale
University.
Kleeb spent several years as a ranch hand in the late 1990s during and after college. He was
working on a family ranch in Dunning when he decided to run for 3rd District seat.
Kleeb ran in 2006 for Nebraska's 3rd District Congressional seat. He ran a stronger-thanexpected campaign but still lost to Republican Adrian Smith, a state senator, by 10 percentage
points.843
Kleeb has most recently worked as a history instructor at Hastings College.
844
Kleeb is married to Jane Fleming Kleeb and has two children.845
Steve Larrick (Green)
Born: 06/05/1952; Colorado Springs, CO
Residence: Lincoln
Marital Status: Married (Janine Copple)
Education: BA Grinnell College, 1974; MS University of Alberta, 1988
Religion: Unitarian Universalist
Prev. Political Exp.: Lower Platte South Natural Resource District
Prev. Occupation: Community Development Researcher, Writer
Kelly Renee Rosberg (Nebraska Party)
Residence: Wausa
Education: Attended Western KY Univ.
Marital Status: Married (Paul)
Race Notes:
Johanns is expected to win easily.
As a former Agriculture Secretary to President Bush, who is highly unpopular, Johanns might be
struggling mightily in his campaign for Senate if he were running in a less Republican-leaning
state than Nebraska.
But the political demographics of Johanns’ home state, coupled with a long record of political
involvement that includes service as Nebraska’s governor (1999-2005) and as Lincoln’s mayor
before that, put him in the driver’s seat against Kleeb, a Yale-educated rancher and educator who
ran a credible but losing campaign in 2006 in western Nebraska.
Democrats have basically ignored this contest to focus on more competitive races elsewhere in
the nation.846
Kleeb has been outspent, but Johanns has spent plenty to win this race.
Johanns had more than $658,000 in the bank on Oct. 15 -- versus $1.4 million at the end of
September. That means the campaign spent more than $850,000 between Oct. 1 and 15.
288
Kleeb's cash on hand was almost $49,600, compared with about $216,000 on Sept. 30, meaning
he spent almost $170,000 in the 15 days.
Johanns has raised almost $3.7 million dollars in his bid to replace Hagel. Kleeb has raised $1.65
847
million.
Analysis by
Nebraska
Race Rating
Likely R
Safe Republican
Republican Favored
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
Chuck Hagel (R)
397,438
83%
Charlie Matulka (D)
70,290
15%
Other
12,489
3%
2002 primary Chuck Hagel (R)
1996 general
Total Votes
$1,394,770
Unopposed
Chuck Hagel (R)
379,933
56%
$3,564,316
Ben Nelson (D)
281,904
42%
$2,159,653
14,952
2%
Other
289
New Mexico
Electoral Votes:
5
First Polls Open:
9:00 AM ET
Lean Democrat
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
376,930
49.84
Kerry
370,942
49.05
Other
8,432
1.11
5,988
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
49.84%
49.05%
2000
47.85%
47.91%
1996
41.86%
49.18%
1992
37.34%
45.90%
1988
51.86%
46.90%
1984
59.70%
39.23%
1980
54.88%
36.73%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 5
Clinton
49.0%
Obama
47.9%
Edwards
1.4%
Republicans
Primary Date:
June 3
McCain
86.0%
Paul
14.0%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Bill Richardson (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
1
2
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
24
18
0
State House
42
28
0
9:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
563,103
Republican
360,513
Other
29,497
168,930
Total
1,122,043
As Of
9/10/2008
VEP 2008
1,423,412
VEP Turnout 2004
59.17%
1,969,915
Total population
36
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
250,235
12.7%
65 years and over
833,933
42.3%
Non-Hispanic White
56,083
2.8%
Black
186,256
9.5%
American Indian
874,688
44.4%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Albuquerque
518,271
Las Cruces
89,722
Rio Rancho
75,978
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
4.0%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$41,452
U.S.
$50,740
290
NEW MEXICO – U.S. Senate Race
Rep. Tom Udall (D)
Born: May 18, 1948; Tuscon, Ariz.
Home: Santa Fe
Education: Prescott College, B.A. 1970 (government & political science) ; Cambridge U., B.L.L.
1975; U. of New Mexico, J.D. 1977
Religion: Mormon
Marital status: Married (Jill Cooper)
Elected Office: Assistant U.S. attorney, 1978-81; sought Democratic nomination for U.S. House,
1982; Democratic nominee for U.S. House, 1988; N.M. attorney general, 1991-99; U.S. House,
1999-present
Professional Career: Lawyer; congressional aide
Rep. Udall is currently serving his fifth term in Congress, representing New Mexico's Third
Congressional District.
Tom Udall was born in Tucson and grew up in Arizona and in the Washington, D.C., area. His
father, Stewart Udall, served in Congress and was interior secretary.
The younger Udall received a bachelor's degree from Prescott College in Arizona in 1970. He
worked as a campaign aide for an Arizona congressional candidate and as an instructor in
outdoor programs in Colorado from 1970 to 1972.
He was a legislative assistant to Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., in 1973, and then returned to school.
Udall received a bachelor's of law degree, specializing in international law, from Cambridge
University in England in 1975. He earned a law degree in 1977 from the University of New
Mexico.
After graduation, he served as a law clerk in Santa Fe for Judge Oliver Seth of the 10th U.S.
Circuit Court of Appeals.
Udall worked as an assistant U.S. attorney in New Mexico from 1978 to 1981. He entered a
private law practice in Santa Fe in September 1981 and prepared to run for Congress in the
state's newly created 3rd District. But he lost the primary election, finishing last in a four-way
race.
From 1984 to 1985, Udall was the chief counsel for the New Mexico Health and Environment
Department. He joined an Albuquerque law firm in 1985.
He ran again for Congress in 1988, this time in the Albuquerque-area 1st District, but lost in the
general election.
He was elected attorney general of New Mexico in 1990 and re-elected in 1994.848
Udall was elected to the U.S. House in 1998, unseating Republican Rep. Bill Redmond. Udall
received 53 percent to Redmond's 43 percent. He easily won reelection four times.
Udall formally announced on Nov. 29, 2007, that he is running for the Senate seat being vacated
by Sen. Domenici.849
Udall and his wife, Jill Z. Cooper, have one daughter.850
Udall's cousin, Democratic Rep. Mark Udall, is running for Senate in Colorado.851
291
Rep. Steve Pearce (R)
Born: August 24, 1947; Lamesa, TX
Home: Hobbs, NM
Education: Eastern New Mexico University, MBA Business Administration; New Mexico State
University, BA Economics
Religion: Baptist
Marital status: Married (Cynthia)
Elected Office: N.M. House, 1997-00; sought Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, 2000; U.S.
House, 2003-present
Professional Career: Oil well services company owner; pilot
Rep. Pearce is serving his third term in the House representing the 2nd District.
852
Steve Pearce was born in Texas but his family moved to Hobbs, a community in southeastern
New Mexico, when he was 2.
Pearce earned a degree in economics from New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, where
he was student body president. He earned a master's degree in business administration from
Eastern New Mexico University in 1991.
He served in the Air Force as a pilot from 1970 to 1976. During part of that time, he flew C-130
cargo planes into Vietnam from the Philippines. After leaving the military, Pearce operated a crop
dusting and commercial flying service.
He was elected to the state House of Representatives in 1996, running unopposed for a seat that
became vacant when the incumbent Republican retired.
He served two terms in the state House from 1996 to 2000. He was the chairman of the
Republican House caucus during his second term.
He ran unsuccessfully for the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2000, but lost to former U.S.
Rep. Bill Redmond. Pearce finished a distant second in the 2000 GOP primary; he received 22
He was elected to the House in 2002 with 56 percent of the vote. He defeated Democratic state
Sen. John Arthur Smith of Deming.
Pearce owned Lea Fishing Tools Inc., an oil field serving company, until selling it in 2003.853
Pearce brings a local perspective to debates about immigration; his southern New Mexico district
covers the state's entire 180-mile border with Mexico.854
Politically, the 2nd District is a district with moderate-to-conservative Democrats who are among
the swing voters in New Mexico and tend to support Republicans in congressional and statewide
contests.
Pearce serves on the House Committee on Resources, which oversees the Interior Department
as well as handling federal water issues and management of public lands. He is chairman of the
subcommittee on national parks, recreation and public lands.855
He is vying to replace Sen. Domenici, R-N.M., who is giving up the seat after being diagnosed
with an incurable brain disease.856
Pearce beat Heather Wilson June 3 in a close race for the GOP nomination.857
Pearce and his wife, Cynthia, have one daughter.
858
292
Race Notes:
Udall and Pearce are running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pete
859
Domenici, who plans to retire in January 2009 because of an incurable brain disease.
Domenici’s retirement sparked all three of the New Mexico’s House members — Reps. Heather
Wilson (R), Steve Pearce (R) and Tom Udall (D) — to seek his seat. Democrat Udall was
unchallenged in the June 3 primary. He’s facing conservative Republican Pearce who narrowly
defeated Rep. Wilson in a bruising primary.
Udall is significantly better funded for the race and the Democrats see this as a prime turnover
860
opportunity in the fall.
While Republicans argue that Udall’s voting record is too liberal for the state, he is also wellknown and a proven statewide vote-getter after his two terms as state attorney general.
Pearce is the more conservative of the two, and some argued Wilson — who was backed by
Domenici — would have been the stronger general election candidate.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee pulled the TV ad time it had reserved in the state
in early September.
Polls have consistently shown Udall with a healthy lead and Pearce’s campaign war chest was
virtually depleted by the primary.861
Udall has spent twice as much money as Pearce during the past three months. Udall also had
larger cash reserves for the closing stretch of the campaign, according to the latest federal
campaign finance disclosures.
Udall reported a balance of almost $2 million at the end of last month and Pearce had $545,553.
From July through September, Udall spent $2.7 million and Pearce had expenditures of $1.3
million.
Udall raised $1.8 million, which included $1.6 million in contributions from individuals and political
action committees. Pearce had total receipts of $1.3 million, nearly all of it from contributions from
individuals, PACs and political party committees.862
Domenici endorsed Pearce, praising his record of supporting domestic drilling, nuclear power,
lower taxes, the state's national laboratories and military installations and gun rights, his
opposition to abortion and his fight for ranchers' grazing rights on public lands.863
Udall took his party’s nomination without opposition and Pearce gained his party’s slot with a
narrow and hard-won primary win over Heather A. Wilson.864
Pearce's strategy is predicated on persuading voters that it is Udall who has liberal views that are
out of the state's mainstream.865
Ads for Udall stress a "do-it-all" philosophy for energy policy, including more offshore drilling and
nuclear power, in addition to developing alternative sources.
The ads serve as rebuttals to attacks from Pearce, who consistently has accused Udall of being
in line with "extreme" and "far-left" environmentalists.866
Udall has maintained a big lead over Pearce in the polls.
293
Analysis:
Republicans took a wrong turn in their June 3rd primary by nominating the conservative Pearce
over the moderate Wilson (backed by Domenici) by a narrow 51% to 49% margin.
Wilson might have been able to capitalize on her gender and more centrist record against Udall.
Pearce has little but hard conservatism to sell in a year when it isn't particularly appealing here.
Not surprisingly, the polls strongly favor Udall, the cousin of the Senate frontrunner in near-by
867
Colorado. Pearce will need a miracle to win.
Analysis by
New Mexico
Race Rating
Lean D
New Likely Democratic
Democrat Favored
Likely Takeover
Recent Poll Results
Dates
N/Pop Pearce Udall Other Undecided Margin
Pollster
Rasmussen
10/13/08
700 LV
37
57
0
6
+20D
SurveyUSA
10/12-13/08
568 LV
40
58
-
2
+18D
Albuquerque Journal
9/29-10/2/08 659 RV
36
51
-
13
+15D
Rasmussen
10/1/08
500 LV
41
55
2
2
+14D
SurveyUSA
9/29-30/08
698 LV
39
58
-
3
+19D
Election Results
Candidate
2002
general
Total Votes Percent Expenditures
Pete Domenici (R)
314,193
65%
$4,144,286
Gloria Tristani (D)
168,863
35%
$836,604
2002
primary
Pete Domenici (R)
Unopposed
1996
general
Pete Domenici (R)
357,171
65%
$3,435,164
Art Trujillo (D)
164,356
30%
$155,213
24,230
4%
$12,025
Abraham Gutmann
(Green)
Prior winning
percentages:
1990 (73%); 1984 (72%); 1978 (53%);
1972 (54%)
New Mexico 1st District
Martin Heinrich (D)
Born: 10/17/1971, Fallon, NV
Home: Albuquerque
Education: BSC Engineering, U of Missouri
Religion: N/A
Marital status: Married (Julie)
294
Elected Office: Albuquerque City Council
Martin Heinrich was born in Fallon, Nev., and lives in New Mexico. He received a bachelor's
degree from the University of Missouri.
Heinrich, the owner of a public affairs consulting business, was elected to the Albuquerque City
Council in 2003 and became its president in 2006.
Gov. Bill Richardson named Heinrich as state natural resources trustee in February 2006.
868
As Natural Resources trustee, Heinrich worked with the Governor to clean up contaminated land
869
and protect our natural environment.
Heinrich took an unpaid leave from the job in April 2007 to decide whether to run for Congress.
Heinrich and his wife, Julie, have two children.870
Darren White
Born: 3/21/1963, Suffern, NY
Home: Albuquerque
Education: BA University of Phoenix
Religion: N/A
Marital status: Married
Elected Office: Bernalillo County Sheriff, 2002-present
Professional Career: Law Enforcement
Darren White was born in Suffern, N.Y., and lives in Albuquerque. He received a bachelor's
degree from the University of Phoenix.
White, a former Albuquerque police sergeant, was named to head the state Department of Public
Safety when Republican Gary Johnson was elected governor in 1994. White resigned in 1999
when Johnson pushed to legalize drugs.
White then became a reporter for an Albuquerque television station.
White is sheriff of Bernalillo County. Sheriff White has won two terms for sheriff as a Republican
in Bernalillo County.871
White and his wife have one child.872
Race Notes:
Wilson had big trouble holding this Albuquerque-based seat through six elections, in part because
it’s a genuine partisan tossup.
While Democrats hold a voter registration lead of 48 percent to 33 percent over Republicans,
another 20 percent are not with either major party.
The race now, between Democrat Martin Heinrich, a former member of the Albuquerque City
Council, and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White has grown contentious.
The Republican had twice as much money on hand as Heinrich, and the Republican Party
appears to be paying a bit more attention to holding the seat than the DCCC is to taking it
away.873
The 1st District, which takes in parts of five counties anchored by Albuquerque, has been in
874
Republican hands for four decades despite a Democratic advantage in voter registration.
295
The 1st District seat was vacated by Heather Wilson, who made an unsuccessful bid for U.S.
875
Senate in the June primary.
In 2006, Republican incumbent Wilson beat her Democratic opponent by less than one-half of 1
876
percent in a bitter campaign.
The district has not been held by a Democrat since it was formed in 1968.877
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Heather Wilson (R)
105,986
50%
$4,906,596
Patricia Madrid (D)
105,125
50%
$3,386,538
2006 primary
Heather Wilson (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Heather Wilson (R)
147,372
54%
$3,401,887
Richard Romero (D)
123,339
46%
$2,106,588
New Mexico 2nd District
Harry Teague (D)
Born: 1949-6-29, Caddo County, OK
Home: Hobbs, NJ
Education: HS Diploma
Religion: Baptist
Marital status: Married (Nancy)
Elected Office: Lea County Board of Commissioners
Harry Teague was born in Caddo County, Okla., and moved to eastern New Mexico when he was
9 years old. He now resides in Hobbs.
Teague dropped out of high school at age 16 to work in the oil fields and eventually started an
oilfield services business.
Teague served eight years on the Lea County Board of Commissioners and was board chairman
for more than three years.
Teague has been married to his wife, Nancy, for 38 years. The couple has two children.878
Ed Tinsley (R)
Born: 08/26/1952, Lamesa, TX
Home: Capitan
Education: BBA University of Texas, 1973; JD Texas Tech University, 1977
Religion: Methodist
Marital status: Married (Meredith)
Professional Career: Rancher, Restaurateur
Edward R. Tinsley III was born in Lamesa, Texas, and now resides in Capitan. He earned an
accounting degree from University of Texas and a law degree from Texas Tech.
Tinsley's family has had a ranch in New Mexico for more than 50 years. He moved to the state in
1978 after college to open a chain of sandwich shops. Eventually, he became the owner of
Tinsley Hospitality Group, LLC, which is the franchisor of K-Bob's Steakhouses. The company
296
has restaurants in Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas. Tinsley served as chairman of
the National Restaurant Association in 2006.
Tinsley and his wife, Meredith, operate a ranch in Capitan. He has two grown children.879
Race Notes:
The national environment and Obama’s strength in the state mean Republicans must now fight
for this rural district, where Bush won 3-2 last time. Restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley is the
GOP nominee against Democrat Harry Teague, former commissioner of Lea County. Teague’s
generosity has kept him viable, although the Republican had three times as much in the bank for
880
the campaign’s final month.
This is a conservative district, which could be enough for Tinsley to beat back the challenge from
881
wealthy businessman Teague.
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Steve Pearce (R)
92,620
59%
$1,349,394
Albert Kissling (D)
63,119
40%
$183,160
2006 primary
Steve Pearce (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Steve Pearce (R)
130,498
60%
$1,997,549
86,292
40%
$1,143,705
Gary King (D)
297
New York
Electoral Votes:
31
First Polls Open:
6:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
4,314,280
58.37%
Bush
2,962,567
40.08%
Other
114,189
1.55%
1,351,713
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
40.08%
58.37%
2000
35.23%
60.21%
1996
30.61%
59.47%
1992
33.88%
49.73%
1988
47.52%
51.62%
1984
53.84%
45.83%
1980
46.66%
43.99%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Clinton
57.4%
Obama
40.3%
Edwards
1.2%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
McCain
51.8%
Romney
27.7%
Huckabee
10.7%
Party Breakdown
Governor
David Paterson (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
23
6
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
30
32
0
State House
108
42
0
9:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
5,597,604
Republican
3,013,991
Other
595,927
2,431,117
Total
11,638,639
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
13,296,692
VEP Turnout 2004
57.48%
19,297,729
Total population
3
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
2,546,405
13.2%
65 years and over
11,633,431 60.3%
Non-Hispanic White
3,347,282
17.3%
Black
1,338,924
6.9%
Asian
3,162,382
16.4%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
New York
8,274,527
Buffalo
272,632
Rochester
206,759
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
5.8%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$53,514
U.S.
$50,740
298
New York 13th District
Mike McMahon (D)
Born: 9/12/1957 Staten Island
Home: Staten Island
Education: B.A NYU and a Law, J.D. NY Law School.
Marital Status: Married (Judith)
Elected Office: Staten Island City Council
Michael McMahon was born and raised in Staten Island, where he now resides. He earned a
bachelor's at New York University and a law degree at New York Law School.
McMahon's political career began before he graduated law school, working for a state
Assemblyman.
He later went to work for a New York City Councilman, and was elected to the council in 2001.
McMahon has worked on issues that matter most to Staten Island, which is sometimes called "the
forgotten borough," during his time as a councilman: traffic congestion, ferry service, mass transit
and development.882
NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg was a contributor to McMahon's 2001 campaign for the City
Council.883
McMahon and his wife, Judith, who is a civil court judge and acting state supreme court justice,
have two children.884
Robert Straniere (R)
Born: 03/28/1941 New York, NY
Home: Staten Island
Education: BA Wagner College, 1962; JD NY Univ., 1965; LLM NY Univ., 1969
Religion: Jewish
Marital Status: Married (Ruth Kaner)
Elected Office: NY Assembly, 1981-2004
Robert Straniere was born in New York and now resides in Staten Island. He earned a bachelor's
at Wagner College in 1962, a juris doctorate at New York University Law School in 1965 and an
advanced law degree at New York University Law School in 1969.
Straniere was a state Assemblyman for Staten Island's South Shore section for 24 years, before
losing his seat in a primary after a falling-out with local party leaders. He served on the Ways &
Means Committee in the Assembly, handling state budget issues.885
In 2001, Straniere ran against James Molinaro for borough president.886
Since leaving the New York State Legislature in 2005, Bob Straniere has been practicing law on
Staten Island and in Manhattan.887
Straniere opened a retail hot dog shop, The New York City Hot Dog Company, in lower
Manhattan after his time in the Assembly. When he won the Republican primary in the 13th
District race, Straniere announced he was closing the hot dog shop due to the economic
downturn.
Straniere is facing not just his Democratic opponent, but also members of his own party who are
unhappy he won the GOP primary. When an attempt was made to pry him off the ballot by
299
nominating him for a Manhattan judicial spot, Straniere formally declined, telling rival Republicans
to "get over it."
Straniere and his wife, Ruth, have four children and have five grandchildren.888
Race Notes:
The convoluted soap opera surrounding the Staten Island-based district began with this spring’s
revelations about Fossella’s “second family” and has resulted in an almost-assured victory for
Democratic City Council member Mike McMahon.
Fighting for the GOP’s chances of holding its sole seat in the city’s congressional delegation is
889
Bob Straniere, an underfunded lawyer disdained by many Republican leaders.
Fossella was already in a fight when, following a drunk driving arrest and the disclosure that he
had fathered a child with a woman in Virginia, he announced he wouldn't run again.
Whatever relief the Republicans got out of his decision to retire ended when his likely GOP
replacement nominee, Frank Powers, died unexpectedly in mid-June.
McMahon's campaign has stressed his Staten Island roots and his centrist approach in a district
that has sent Republicans to Congress for decades.
He has won the support of much of the city's political establishment, including the mayor and the
borough president.
A McMahon victory in November would ensure that all 19 of New York City's congressional
districts are in Democratic hands. Fossella is the only Republican member of Congress from New
York City.890
Former Staten Island Borough President Guy Molinari endorsed the Conservative Party
candidate Tim Cochrane instead of Straniere.891
A Judge Starniere and a Judge McMahon are running against one another for a seat on the
Staten Island Supreme Court.
Judge Philip Straniere is the brother of GOP congressional candidate Robert Straniere, while
Judge Judith McMahon is married to City Councilman Michael McMahon, the Democratic
congressional nominee.892
McMahon was endorsed by NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg.893
Election Results
Candidate
2006
general
Vito Fossella (R-C-Ind)
59,334
57%
$1,639,598
Stephen Harrison (DWF)
45,131
43%
$132,454
112,934
59%
$1,134,213
78,500
41%
$423,793
2006
primary
Vito Fossella (R)
2004
general
Vito Fossella (R-C)
Frank Barbaro (D-IndWF)
Unopposed
300
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) Incumbent
Born: 12/09/1966, Albany, NY
Home: Hudson
Education: AB Dartmouth College, 1988; JD University of California - Los Angeles, 1991
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Jonathan)
Kirsten Elizabeth Gillibrand grew up in Albany and now lives in Greenport.
She graduated from Dartmouth College in 1988 and earned a law degree at UCLA in 1991. She
served as a law clerk at the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals.
During the Clinton administration, Gillibrand served as special counsel to Andrew Cuomo, former
secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. While working with HUD, she
helped strengthen enforcement of the Davis-Bacon Act and drafted new legislation for public and
private investment in building infrastructure in lower income areas.
Gillibrand is the daughter of Douglas Rutnik, an Albany lobbyist who is part of former Gov.
George Pataki's inner circle.
Gillibrand was an associate with the firm Davis Polk and Wardwell. She is now on leave from
Boies, Schiller and Flexner where she is listed as a partner.
She serves as chair of the Women's Leadership Forum Network.
Gillibrand scored one of the big upsets of the 2006 elections when she defeated incumbent GOP
Rep. John Sweeney for New York's 20th District seat. The campaign was marked by disturbing
allegations about Sweeney's personal life and professional ethics.
Gillibrand is married and has a son.
Sandy Treadwell (R)
Born: 3/25/1946, London, England
Home: Saratoga Springs/ Lake Placid, NY
Education: BA, Chapel Hill, NC
Religion: N/A
Marital status: Married (Libby)
Elected Office: NY Secy. of State, 1995-2001
Professional Career: Public Official, Sports Reporter
Alexander F. Treadwell was born in London, moved to the U.S. as a baby and currently resides in
Lake Placid, NY. He later graduated from University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, served in
the Army National Guard and worked as a reporter for Sports Illustrated.
In 1995, Gov. George Pataki appointed Treadwell as New York Secretary of State, a position he
served in until 2001. From 2001-2004, he served as the chairman of the New York Republican
State Committee. He was then elected to represent New York as a member of the Republican
National Committee.
In 2006, Treadwell helped form the Lake Placid Regional Winter Sports Committee and was
elected its president. He is also vice president of the Clark Foundation, a charitable foundation
that helps organizations with education and employment training.
301
Treadwell and his wife, Libby, have two children and five grandchildren.894
Race Notes:
In one of the most expensive House contests in the country, Gillibrand is seeking a second term
against Sandy Treadwell, a former New York Secretary of State and former state party chairman
who put $4.4 million of his own money into the contest for the upper Hudson Valley seat; together
the two spent $7.5 million through the end of September while sparring over taxes and energy
policy. Republicans have attacked Gillibrand over her ties to tobacco interests during her time as
895
a lawyer; she has focused on constituent service and agricultural issues during her first term.
Election Results
Candidate
Kirsten Gillibrand (DWF)
125,168
53%
$2,595,659
John Sweeney (R-CInd)
110,554
47%
$3,425,841
2006 primary Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Unopposed
188,753
66%
$1,392,817
96,630
34%
$22,823
1,353
0%
2006 general
2004 general
John Sweeney (R-IndC)
Doris Kelly (D)
Other
Dan Maffei (D)
Born: 07/04/1968, Syracuse, NY
Home: DeWitt
Education: BA Brown University; MA Columbia University; MA Harvard University
Religion: Catholic
Born and raised in Syracuse, Maffei worked with former U.S. Sens. Bill Bradley (NJ) and Daniel
Patrick Moynihan (NY) and U.S. Rep. Charles Rangel, the leader of NY's congressional
delegation.
During his years as a congressional staffer, Maffei says he worked to preserve Social Security,
provide tax incentives to companies that kept manufacturing jobs in the U.S. and lower
prescription drug costs for seniors.896
Maffei worked for Rangel, on the House Ways and Means Committee from 1998 to 2005.897
Maffei worked as a reporter and producer for Syracuse's Channel 9 News.898
In 2006, Maffei ran unsuccessfully for Congress against Rep. Jim Walsh in the 25th
Congressional District.899
Maffei now works as the senior vice president of Pinnacle Capital Management. He was recently
married to Abby Davidson-Maffei.900
302
Dale Sweetland (R)
Born: 03/29/1949
Home: Fabius
Education: N/A
Religion: N/A
Elected Office: Onondaga County Legislature
Professional Career: Entrepreneur
Dale Sweetland has deep roots in the region -- his ancestors were among the first families to
settle in Cazenovia, N.Y. in 1793. He was born in Oneida and now lives in Fabius.
Sweetland is a licensed property and casualty insurance agent and worked in crop insurance
901
industry for 10 years. He owned and managed his own farm for 25 years.
1988, Sweetland was elected Town Supervisor of Fabius and served three terms.
1994, Sweetland was elected to the Onondaga County Legislature where he served seven
terms.902
In 1997, he sold his agricultural operation and began working for Fireman's Fund Agribusiness
and was responsible for marketing and business operations in 12 Northeastern states and a $6
million regional budget.903
In 2002, Sweetland was elected chairman of the county legislature in a party-line vote. In 2004,
he was unanimously re-elected as chairman.
Sweetland is a licensed property and casualty insurance agent and worked in crop insurance
industry for 10 years.904
Sweetland and his wife, Susan, have two adult children.905
Race Notes:
Maffei, a veteran congressional press secretary, has been campaigning since his narrow loss last
time pushed Walsh to retire from this Syracuse-based district.
And Maffei had a 4-to-1 cash advantage for the final push against Republican Dale Sweetland,
the former chairman of the Onondaga County Legislature.906
Rep. James Walsh announced his plan to retire at the end of his term in January.907
Rep. Charles Rangel has helped raise money for both of Maffei's campaigns for the 25th District
seat. Maffei took in $57,000 at a single event sponsored by Rangel this summer.908
A day after President Bush urged Congress to act fast, Maffei and Sweetland both agreed there
should be some type of bailout plan.909
Maffei called for a repeal of the NAFTA because he says it has cost Central New York thousands
of jobs. Sweetland acknowledged he supported NAFTA in 1993 because he thought the pact
would open new markets for U.S. farm products.910
303
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
James Walsh (R-CInd)
110,525
51%
$1,787,552
Dan Maffei (D-WF)
107,108
49%
$918,270
$656,874
2006 primary James Walsh (R)
2004 general
Total Votes
Unopposed
James Walsh (R-IndC)
189,063
90%
Howie Hawkins (PJ)
20,106
10%
Alice Kryzan (D)
Born: 7/19/1948 Youngstown, OH
Home: Amherst
Education: Trinity University; JD University of Chicago
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Bob Berger)
Alice J. Kryzan was born in Youngstown, Ohio and currently resides in Amherst. She graduated
from Trinity University and the University of Chicago Law School. After working at the Chicago
Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, she practiced environmental law in western New
York for nearly 30 years. She is semi-retired and left her last law firm in 2005.
This is Kryzan's first run for office. Her father was mayor of Youngstown, Ohio. She serves on the
advisory board of a collaborative project of the United Way and the Community Foundation for
Greater Buffalo that funds programs to help women achieve economic self-sufficiency.
Kryzan is running for the House seat being vacated by retiring Thomas Reynolds, a five-term
Republican.
Kryzan and her husband, Robert Berger, have one son.911
Christopher Lee (R)
Born: 4/1/1964, Tonawanda, NY
Home: Clarence, NY
Education: BA University of Rochester; MBA Chapman University
Marital status: Married (Michele)
Professional Career: Business Executive
Christopher J. Lee was born in Tonawanda and currently resides in Clarence. He received a
bachelor's degree in economics and finance from the University of Rochester and a master's
degree with a concentration in international business from Chapman University in California. He
was chairman and chief executive of International Motion Control and now helps run the Patrick
P. Lee Foundation, a family foundation.
This is Lee's first run for office. He also has the backing of the Conservative Party.
He and his wife, Michele, have one son.
912
304
Race Notes:
Republican businessman Chris Lee holds a strong financial advantage in the GOP-leaning
district, which takes in suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester. The Democrat is lawyer Alice Kryzan,
the upset primary winner against the anointed candidate, Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, and
Davis, the millionaire businessman who got the Supreme Court to strike down a law that put selffinanciers at something of a disadvantage.913
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general Tom Reynolds (R-C)
109,257
52%
$5,275,474
Jack Davis (D-IndWF)
100,914
48%
$2,386,358
2006 primary Tom Reynolds (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Tom Reynolds (R-IndC)
157,466
56%
$2,522,713
Jack Davis (D-WF)
125,613
44%
$1,356,713
John Kuhl (R) Incumbent
Born: 04/19/1943, Bath, NY
Home: Hammondsport
Education: BS Union College, 1966; JD Syracuse University, 1969
Religion: Episcopal
Elected Office: NY Assembly, 1980-86; NY Senate, 1987-2004
Professional Career: Attorney, Public Official
John R. "Randy" Kuhl Jr. was born in Hammondsport, where he still lives. He earned a bachelor's
degree in civil engineering at Union College in Schenectady in 1966, then a law degree at
Syracuse University College of Law in 1969.
He was elected to the state Assembly in 1980, beginning two dozen years in Albany politics. He
was first elected to the state Senate in 1986. He was a nine-term state senator before winning his
bid to represent the Southern Tier of New York.
In his first congressional campaign, the leaking of Kuhl's divorce records made a splash. The
records contain allegations that Kuhl was a heavy drinker and that he brandished two shotguns at
a 1994 dinner party and threatened to shoot his wife. Kuhl was arrested for driving while
intoxicated in 1997, pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge.
Kuhl also is a practicing attorney.
He was elected to the U.S. House in 2004.
He is divorced and has three sons.914
Eric Massa (D)
Born: 9/16/1959, Charleston, SC
Home: Corning
Education: Attended U.S. Naval Academy
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Beverly)
305
Professional Career: Retired Military, Congressional Aide; Military: USN, 1981-2001
Born in Charleston, S.C., the son of a career naval officer, Massa grew up in various locations,
including Argentina and New Orleans, where he enrolled in high school. He later earned degrees
at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md., the Naval War College in Newport, RI. He now
lives in Corning.
Massa served in Beirut, Bosnia and the Persian Gulf during 24 years in the Navy. He worked on
the staff of the House Armed Services Committee, then left to work for retired Gen. Wesley
Clark's presidential campaign in New Hampshire.
Massa has raged against the Bush administration's decisions on Iraq, calling for an immediate
pullout of troops. A cancer survivor, he supports universal health care.
In 2006, he won the Democratic nomination after David Nachbar, a Rochester businessman,
withdrew from the race amid a dispute over whether he was a registered Democrat.
Massa was a registered Republican during his naval career, but he switched to the Democratic
Party in 2004 after his experience as a cancer outreach advocate inspired him to get involved in
politics.
He ran up tours of combat during the Persian Gulf War in 1991, Beirut in 1983-84 and BosniaKosovo in 1996-97. While serving under Clark, he was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma
in 1997, underwent aggressive treatment and has been cancer-free for nine years. He received a
curative diagnosis from Bethesda Naval Medical Center in April 2004.
Massa worked on the professional staff of the House Armed Services Committee during the leadup to the Iraq war in 2003. Before that, he worked for Corning Inc. as an engineering team leader
and production line supervisor for two years, losing his job in 2002 in a mass layoff triggered by
the 2001 telecommunications crash.
Massa and his wife, Beverly, have three children.915
Race Notes:
Kuhl became the latest in a series of Republicans to grab national headlines (and backlash from
Democrats) for an incendiary remark — in this case, that Democrats want the American public to
suffer so they can make political gains. Kuhl was already vulnerable in the rematch: Massa held
him to 51 percent in 2006 despite the Southern Tier’s strong GOP lean. Massa has outraised
Kuhl and had slightly more cash heading into October.916
This is a Republican district, but a combination of a weak economy and the weakness of Kuhl - in
2004, he had the dual distractions of a drunk driving arrest and an ugly divorce - gives the
Democrats a clear shot.917
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Randy Kuhl (R-CInd)
106,077
51%
$1,475,289
Eric Massa (D-WF)
100,044
49%
$1,501,716
2006 primary
Randy Kuhl (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Randy Kuhl (R)
136,883
51%
$937,340
Samara Barend (DWF)
110,241
41%
$612,443
306
Mark Assini (C)
Other
17,272
6%
5,819
2%
$267,016
307
308
North Dakota
Electoral Votes:
3
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
8:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
9:00 PM ET
State law requires all polls to close no earlier than 7:00PM local and no later than 9:00PM local.
Most counties are in CTZ and close at 8:00PM ET. Western half of the state is in MTZ.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
196,651
62.86%
Kerry
111,052
35.50%
Other
5,130
1.64%
85,599
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
62.86%
35.50%
2000
60.66%
33.06%
1996
46.94%
40.13%
1992
44.22%
32.18%
1988
56.03%
42.97%
1984
64.84%
33.80%
1980
64.23%
26.26%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Obama
61.1%
Clinton
36.5%
Edwards
1.5%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Romney
35.8%
McCain
22.8%
Paul
21.3%
Party Breakdown
Governor
John Hoeven (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
1
0
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
21
26
0
State House
33
61
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
496,906
As Of
6/1/2008
VEP 2008
499,940
VEP Turnout 2004
65.23%
639,715
Total population
State Pop. Rank
93,285
14.6%
65 years and over
575,411
89.9%
Non-Hispanic White
6,544
1.0%
Black
34,457
5.4%
Native American
12,002
1.9%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Fargo
92,660
Bismarck
59,503
Grand Forks
51,740
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
3.6%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$44,670
U.S.
$50,740
309
North Dakota – Governor Race
Gov. John Hoeven (R) Incumbent
Elected 2000, 2d term up Dec. 2008
Born: 03-13-1957, Bismarck, ND
Home: Bismarck, ND
Education: Dartmouth, B.A. 1979; Northwestern U., Kellogg Grad. School, M.B.A. 1981
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: married (Mikey)
Professional Career: Exec. V.P., First Western Bank, 1986-93; Pres. & CEO, Bank of ND, 1993918
2000.
John Hoeven, the Republican governor of North Dakota, is the longest serving governor in the
United States.
Hoeven, who is running for a third four-year term in 2008, is attempting a first in North Dakota
politics. No governor has ever won three four-year terms since the governor's term was
lengthened from two to four years in 1968.919
In 1981, he entered the family business, First Western Bank in Minot, and became executive vice
president.
In 1993 he was chosen to be head of the state-owned Bank of North Dakota —a Non-Partisan
League creation — by a board that included his predecessor as governor, Republican Ed
Schafer, and his 2000 Democratic opponent, Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp
Hoeven was not always a Republican; in 1996, he thought out loud about running as a Democrat
against Schafer.920
Hoeven's second term has focused on energy, including the development of North Dakota's wind
and biofuels industries; local school finance; and ways to relieve the state's prison overcrowing
problems.921
Tim Mathern (D)
Born: 04-19-1950, Edgeley
Home: Fargo
Education: BA North Dakota State Univ. MSW Univ. of Nebraska, MPA Harvard University
Marital Status: married (Lorene)
Religion: Catholic
Elected Office: North Dakota State Senate, 1986-present
Professional Career: social worker and administrator for Catholic Family Service for 27 years;
Church of the Nativity in Fargo from 2000 to 2006; VP for public policy and nonprofit development
Prairie St. John's, 2006-present
Tim Mathern was born in Edgeley, N.D., and grew up in a family of 13 children on a dairy and
grain farm in southeastern North Dakota.
Mathern was a social worker and administrator for Catholic Family Service, a Fargo-based social
services organization, for 27 years.
Mathern, who was first elected to the North Dakota Senate in 1986, is making his first run for
statewide office.
Mathern served as the Democratic floor leader during the 1997 and 1999 sessions of the
Legislature. He stepped down as leader before the 1999 session was finished, an unusual move
310
that happened in part because of some Democratic colleagues' complaints that Mathern was not
assertive enough in challenging the Senate's majority Republicans.
He beat Merle Boucher by 28 votes for the Democratic nomination.922
Race Notes:
Incumbent Gov. John H. Hoeven (R) is heavily favored to win.923
Hoeven has raised $1.93 million for his re-election campaign.
Democrat Tim Mathern has raised $297,212 since he announced his campaign for governor last
924
year.
Hoeven and Mathern both oppose a ballot measure to slash state income tax rates in half.
925
Election Results
Candidate
2004 general
John Hoeven (R)
Joseph Satrom (D)
Other
Total Votes
220,803
71%
84,877
27%
4,193
1%
2004 primary
John Hoeven (R)
Unopposed
2000 general
John Hoeven (R)
159,255
55%
Heidi Heitkamp (D)
130,144
45%
311
312
Rhode Island
Electoral Votes:
4
First Polls Open:
6:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
259,760
59.42%
Bush
169,046
38.67%
Other
8,328
1.91%
90,714
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
38.67%
59.42%
2000
31.92%
61.00%
1996
26.82%
59.71%
1992
29.02%
47.04%
1988
43.93%
55.64%
1984
51.66%
48.02%
1980
37.20%
47.67%
Democrats
Primary Date:
March. 04
Clinton
58.4%
Obama
40.4%
Edwards
0.6%
Republicans
Primary Date:
March. 04
McCain
64.8%
Huckabee
21.7%
Paul
6.6%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Donald L. Carcieri (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
2
0
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
32
5
1
State House
61
13
1
9:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
296,283
Republican
76,345
Other
N/A
322,099
Total
694,727
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
771,052
VEP Turnout 2004
59.10%
1,057,832
Total population
43
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
146,847
13.9%
65 years and over
838,876
79.3%
Non-Hispanic White
67,040
6.3%
Black
29,114
2.8%
Asian
118,960
11.2%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Providence
172,459
Warwick
85,097
Cranston
80,463
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
8.8%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$53,568
U.S.
$50,740
313
RHODE ISLAND – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Jack Reed (D) Incumbent
Born: November 12, 1949; Cranston
Home: Cranston
Education: U.S. Military Academy, B.S., 1971; Harvard U., M.PP 1973, JD 1982
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Julia)
Military service: Army, 1967-79; Army Reserve, 1979-91
Elected Office: RI Senate, 1984-1990; U.S. House of Representatives, 1991-1996; U.S. Senate,
1996-present
Professional Career: Attorney, Associate Professor; Public Service
Sen. Reed is seeking a third term in the Senate.
Early during the 2008 campaign season, Reed was as a potential Vice Presidential candidate and
926
is mentioned as a candidate for Secretary of Defense.
Reed grew up in a working-class family in Cranston, where his father, Joseph Reed, was a school
custodian and his mother, Mary Monahan, a factory worker. He attended West Point, barely
meeting the height requirements.
After graduation, the Army put him through a master’s program at the John F. Kennedy School of
Government at Harvard University. Reed then commanded a company of the Army’s 82nd
Airborne Division and taught at West Point.
He left the army at age 29 and attended Harvard Law School. Upon completion he joined the
biggest corporate law firm in Rhode Island.
In 1984 he won a seat in the R.I. senate and served for 6 years.
In 1990 he won a seat in the U.S. House winning 59% of the vote in R.I.’s 2nd district.
In 1996 when a seat opened in the U.S. Senate, Reed ran and won with 63% of the vote.
In 2002, Reed easily won re-election to the U.S. Senate with 78% of the vote.
Reed was one of 21 Democrats to vote against authorizing the war in Iraq in 2002.
He has sought to increase permanently the size of the Army.
He was among the first prominent national figures to lose confidence in Defense Secretary
Donald H. Rumsfeld, calling for his resignation in late 2004.
In June 2006 he and Carl Levin sponsored an amendment calling for a “phased redeployment” in
six months, with no deadline for complete withdrawal; it also called for U.S. forces to transition to
training Iraqi security forces. The Levin-Reed amendment lost 60–39.
In July 2007 he made his 10th trip to Iraq and co-sponsored with Levin an amendment to force a
reduction and redeployment of troops by April 30, 2008.
In 2005, Reed married at age 55. He and Julia Hart, then 39, an employee of the Senate office
that arranges international travel for senators, wed in West Point’s Catholic chapel, a first
marriage for both
In January 2007 his wife gave birth to their first daughter.
314
Robert Tingle (R)
Born: October 24, 1957; Darby, Pennsylvania
Home: Westerly
Education: not stated
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Marty)
Professional Career: Casino worker
Robert G. "Bob" Tingle was born in Darby, Pa., and currently resides in Westerly.
He has been a pit boss at Foxwoods Casino in Connecticut for the last 16 years and worked for
12 years before that at Ballys Casino in Atlantic City, N.J. 927
In 1998, he ran unsuccessfully for the Rhode Island House of Representatives.
In 2000, he ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. House of Representatives, 2nd District.
In 2000, he was a Rhode Island delegate to Sen. John McCain at the 2000 Republican National
Convention.
This is Tingle’s second campaign for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Sen. Jack Reed. He lost
his first campaign in 2002.928
Tingle volunteered to run against Reed again as the Republican party searched for a candidate to
challenge Reed.
He says he supports getting rid of the federal income tax and replacing it with the fair tax. He
says he's a strong supporter of the Second Amendment and supports a national ban on smoking
in all indoor places. A pro-life candidate, he says reversing Roe. v. Wade will be a top priority.
Tingle and his wife, Barbara, have been married for nearly 24 years. They have two adult
daughters.929
Race Notes:
Reed may be the safest Senate incumbent in the nation this cycle. He’s facing a rematch with
Bob Tingle, the casino pit boss he trounced in 2002.930
Tingle is making his second bid for the Senate. He ran against Reed in 2002, but took just 22
Tingle didn’t raise over $5,000 in that race and has said he doesn’t plan to in this race either.931
Reed, on the contrary, has raised millions more than he’ll need to use against Tingle.
Nearly a quarter of all contributions to Reed's re-election campaign have been coming from
donors in the banking, securities, real estate and insurance sectors.
According to independent watchdog groups, the financial sector accounted for more than $1
million of the $4.45 million that Reed has raised as he campaigns for a third six-year term in the
Senate.932
A senator since 1997, Reed is entrenched in this Democrat-dominated state; his military
background lends credence to his war opposition.933
315
Analysis by
Rhode Island
Race Rating
Solid D
Safe Democratic
Safe Democrat
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general Jack Reed (D)
Robert Tingle (R)
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
253,773
78%
$1,767,967
69,808
22%
2002 primary Jack Reed (D)
Unopposed
1996 general Jack Reed (D)
230,676
63%
$2,732,011
127,368
35%
$773,789
Nancy J. Mayer
(R)
Prior winning
percentages:
1994 House (68%); 1992 House (71%);
1990 House (59%)
316
South Dakota
Electoral Votes:
3
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
8:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
9:00 PM ET
Counties in the MTZ close at 9:00PM ET. The majority of the state is in the CTZ and closes at
8:00PM ET. State law requires results be withheld until all polls in state are closed at 9:00PM ET.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
232,584
59.91%
Kerry
149,244
38.44%
Other
6,387
1.65%
83,340
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
59.91%
38.44%
2000
60.30%
37.56%
1996
46.49%
43.03%
1992
40.66%
37.14%
1988
52.85%
46.51%
1984
63.00%
36.53%
1980
60.53%
31.69%
Democrats
Primary Date:
June. 03
Clinton
55.3%
Obama
4.7%
Republicans
Primary Date:
June. 03
McCain
70.2%
Paul
16.5%
Huckabee
7.1%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Mike Rounds (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
1
0
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
15
20
0
State House
20
50
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
200,605
Republican
238,584
Other
1,969
78,962
Total
520,120
As Of
10/1/2008
VEP 2008
619,477
VEP Turnout 2004
70.13%
796,214
Total population
State Pop. Rank
113,555
14.3%
65 years and over
688,138
86.4%
Non-Hispanic White
8,685
1.1%
Black
66,103
8.3%
Native American
18,477
2.3%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Sioux Falls
151,505
Rapid City
63,997
Aberdeen
24,410
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
3.2%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$43,424
U.S.
$50,740
317
Initiated Measure 11. Abortion. Bans abortion, exceptions for rape and health of mother.
Currently a woman may obtain an abortion during the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. Beyond 24
weeks, abortions may be performed only if necessary to preserve the life or health of the woman.
Measure 11 would prohibit all abortions performed by medical procedures or substances
administered to terminate a pregnancy, except for: abortions medically necessary to prevent
death or the serious risk of substantial and irreversible impairment of a major bodily organ or
system of the woman; and abortions to terminate a pregnancy of less than 20 weeks resulting
from rape or incest reported to law enforcement. When an abortion is performed as a result of
reported rape or incest, the woman must consent to biological sampling from herself and the
embryo or fetus for DNA testing by law enforcement. Measure 11 would allow the provision of
contraception substances prior to the time pregnancy can be determined by conventional medical
testing, or assistance in obtaining abortions in states where the procedure is legal. If approved,
Measure 11 will likely be challenged in court and may be declared to be in violation of the United
States Constitution. The State may be required to pay attorneys fees and costs. Yes: A vote
“Yes” will adopt the proposed law. No: A vote “No” will reject the proposed law.
SOUTH DAKOTA – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Tim Johnson (D) Incumbent
Born: 12-28-1946, Canton
Home: Vermillion
Education: U. of SD, B.A. 1969, M.A. 1970, J.D. 1975, MI St. U., 1970-71
Religion: Lutheran
Marital Status: married (Barbara)
Elected Office: SD House of Reps., 1978–82; SD Senate, 1982–86; U.S. House of Reps., 1986–
96.
Military Career: Army, 1969.
Professional Career: Budget Analyst, MI Senate, 1971–72; Practicing atty., 1975–85; Clay Cnty.
Dpty. Atty., 1985.
Sen. Johnson is seeking reelection to a third term.
Tim Johnson's political and personal futures were thrown into doubt on Dec. 13, 2006, when he
had surgery to stop bleeding on his brain. He was diagnosed with arteriovenous malformation, a
condition that causes arteries and veins to grow abnormally large, become tangled and
sometimes burst.
After physical and speech therapy, Johnson returned to the Senate on Sept. 5, 2007.
Timothy P. Johnson was born in Canton, S.D., and grew up there, graduating from Vermillion
High School. He still has a home in Vermillion.
After earning his bachelor's degree from the University of South Dakota, Johnson joined the
Army, but was discharged after four days because of a hearing problem. He attended graduate
school in Michigan, where he worked as a budget aide in the Michigan state Senate. He returned
to South Dakota to receive a master's degree and law degree and start his law practice.
Johnson served as deputy state's attorney in South Dakota's Clay County. In 1978, at age 31, he
ran for and was elected to the first of two terms in the South Dakota House. He then moved to the
state Senate, where he was also elected to two consecutive terms.
In 1986 Johnson ran for the U.S. House of Representatives seat when the House incumbent,
Tom Daschle, ran for U.S. Senate. Johnson won by a narrow margin and went on to serve as
318
South Dakota's at-large congressman for a decade before defeating incumbent Republican Sen.
Larry Pressler in 1996.
Johnson does have several critical moderate, even conservative, positions to which he can point.
He is opposed to federal funding for abortions except in cases of rape, incest or threat to the life
of the mother. He voted for the ban on partial-birth abortions, and he was one of 11 Democrats in
the Senate who voted for President Bush's $1.3 trillion tax cut in May 2001.
He won his second Senate term by a scant 524 votes in 2002, turning back a challenge by
Republican Rep. Thune in a race that drew President Bush to South Dakota to campaign for the
GOP candidate.
Johnson was diagnosed with prostate cancer in 2004 only a year after beginning his second
Senate term. After surgery, Johnson reported that tests indicated the cancer had not spread.
Johnson and his wife, Barbara, have three children.934
State Rep. Joel Dykstra (R)
Born: February 13, 1958; Canton, SD
Residence: Canton
Education: BS Oral Roberts University, 1980; MBA Oral Roberts University
Religion: Christian
Marital Status: Married (Vicki)
Prev. Political Exp.: SD House, 2002-present
Prev. Occupation: Business Executive
Joel Dykstra was born in Canton, S.D., where he now lives. He received a bachelor's degree in
business management from Oral Roberts University in 1980 and worked for subsidiaries of British
oil companies in Oklahoma and other places in the United States.
Dykstra went to London to work for LASMO, an oil company, in 1990, and then moved to Rome
to work for the same company in 1995.
He returned to South Dakota in the late 1990s and worked in commercial real estate, managed
an agricultural business cooperative and then managed a manufacturing company in Canton.935
Dykstra won three elections for the state Legislature, serving in the South Dakota House since
first winning in the 2002 election.936
He has been assistant majority leader in the House for the past four years.
Dykstra now is a self-employed business consultant. This is his first race in a statewide
campaign.
Dykstra and his wife, Vicki, have three adult daughters.937
Race Notes:
Johnson is almost assured a second term this election cycle despite a record-thin win in 2002.
Most polls show Johnson leads Dykstra by comfortable margins.
Johnson has recovered from a near-fatal brain hemorrhage last December and is back to working
in the Senate, and surrogates kept up fundraising for Johnson’s re-election campaign while he
was recovering, and he is running against an underfunded Republican.938
Johnson has been given a fairly positive prognosis, and he returned to work shortly after Labor
939
Day 2007.
319
Republicans had been wary of criticizing Johnson, let alone fielding a strong challenger.
940
Johnson speaks slowly and haltingly, and is sometimes difficult to understand. He moves with a
cane, and spends much of his time in a wheelchair. He rarely addresses large crowds, and he
has declined a request to debate Dykstra.
But questions about Johnson's health – for a long time largely off limits and deemed unseemly –
were eventually raised publicly by his Republican opponent, Dykstra. Dykstra said voters ''want
some evidence as to whether he can hold his own.''
On mornings when the Senate is in his session, Johnson plows through stacks of memorandums
and his daily press clippings, newspapers and magazines. And he maintains a regular calendar of
meetings with constituents and others.
When in Washington, Johnson mostly uses a wheelchair, but he typically walks into the Senate
chamber for votes, steadying himself with a cane -- partly a matter of pride, his aides say, and a
941
signal to his colleagues and to C-Span viewers everywhere of his recovery.
Dykstra has hammered hard on the lack of debates in television ads and in his public
appearances.
He said he thinks voters still are assessing Johnson's fitness. "People are starting to notice he is
not accessible to the public. He's playing out the string, hoping he does not have to expose
himself to the public," Dykstra said.942
Dykstra's references to Johnson's health seem to have gained little traction. Among many South
Dakotans, even talking about Johnson's medical history seems out of bounds.
South Dakota can seem like two different states, divided by the Missouri River. To the west,
where Republicans dominate (except for Indian Country), the culture seems drawn from the Old
West: cattle ranches, old gold towns, the Black Hills. To the east, where Democrats are more
competitive, corn and soybean farms outnumber ranches, and the financial and technological
sectors are important players.
Despite its Republican leanings, South Dakota has produced some high-profile Democrats,
including two senators, Tom Daschle, the former Senate majority leader, and George McGovern,
the Democratic presidential nominee in 1972.
While Dykstra has sought to portray Johnson as too liberal for the state, most South Dakotans
seem to see him mostly as a pragmatist. As a show of Johnson's political strength, and his
popularity among conservatives, he recently won the endorsement of the National Rifle
Association. He has also been endorsed by Dave Munson, the Republican mayor of the state's
biggest city, Sioux Falls.943
Analysis by
South Dakota
Race Rating
Likely D
Safe Democratic
Safe Democrat
Currently Safe
320
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
167,481
50%
$6,152,991
John Thune (R)
166,957
50%
$5,989,043
Tim Johnson (D)
65,438
95%
3,558
5%
166,533
51%
$2,990,554
157,954
49%
$5,138,298
2002 general Tim Johnson (D)
2002
primary
Herman Eilers
(D)
1996 general Tim Johnson (D)
Larry Pressler
(R)
Prior winning
percentages:
1994 House (60%); 1992 House (69%);
1990 House (68%); 1988 House (72%);
1986 House (59%)
321
322
Texas
Electoral Votes:
34
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
8:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
9:00 PM ET
Most of the state is in the CTZ and closes at 8:00PM ET. Counties in MTZ close at 9:00PM ET.
Polls with less than 50 registered voters may close early if all have voted.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
4,526,917
61.09%
Kerry
2,832,704
38.22%
Other
51,144
0.69%
1,694,213
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
61.09%
38.22%
2000
59.30%
37.98%
1996
48.76%
43.83%
1992
40.56%
37.08%
1988
55.95%
43.35%
1984
63.61%
36.11%
1980
55.28%
41.42%
Democrats
Primary Date:
March. 04
Clinton
50.9%
Obama
47.4%
Edwards
1.0%
Republicans
Primary Date:
March. 04
McCain
51.2%
Huckabee
30.8%
Paul
4.9%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Rick Perry (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
13
19
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
11
20
0
State House
71
79
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
13,155,585
As Of
9/15/2008
VEP 2008
15,379,358
VEP Turnout 2004
53.35%
23,904,380
Total population
State Pop. Rank
2,394,157
10.0%
65 years and over
11,443,618 47.9%
Non-Hispanic White
2,857,111
12.0%
Black
814,454
3.4%
Asian
8,600,399
36.0%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Houston
2,208,180
San Antonio
1,328,984
Dallas
1,240,499
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
5.1%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$47,548
U.S.
$50,740
323
TEXAS – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. John Cornyn (R) Incumbent
Born: February 2, 1952; Houston, Texas
Home: San Antonio, TX
Education: Trinity U., B.A. 1973 (journalism); St. Mary's U. (Texas), J.D. 1977; U. of Virginia,
LL.M. 1995 Religion: Church of Christ
Marital status: Married (Sandy)
Elected Office: U.S. Senate, 2003-present
Professional Career: Lawyer; real estate agent
In 1984 Cornyn was elected Bexar County district court judge and re-elected in 1988.
He was appointed a presiding judge of the 4th Administrative Judicial Region by then-Gov. Bill
Clements in 1989.
He was elected a state Supreme Court Justice in 1990 and re-elected in 1996.
He was elected attorney general in 1998.
He was elected Texas Attorney General in 1999 and served until 2002.
Cornyn was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2002 with 55 percent of the vote, defeating Democrat
Ron Kirk.
He easily defeated consultant Larry Kilgore in the 2008 Republican primary and faces Democrat
Rick Noriega in the November general election.944
State Rep. Richard Noriega (D)
Born: January 8, 1958, Houston, Texas
Home: Houston, TX
Education: MA (Public Administration), Harvard University; BA, University of Houston
Marital status: Not Stated
Elected Office: Representative, Texas State House of Representatives, 1998-present
Professional Career: Manager of Economic Development, CenterPoint Energy
Noriega, 50, works in economic development for CenterPoint Energy Inc., has served almost a
decade in the Texas Legislature and is a lieutenant colonel in the Army National Guard.945
Richard "Rick" Noriega became the race leader for the Democratic primary after wealthy trial
attorney Mikal Watts dropped out of the race.
Noriega narrowly avoided a runoff, winning 51 percent of the vote over perennial candidate Gene
Kelly and Corpus Christi teacher Ray McMurrey.
He has served in the Texas House of Representatives since 1999.
A member of the Texas Army National Guard, Noriega spent 14 months in Afghanistan.
He also served with the Guard on the Texas-Mexico border and helped lead evacuee shelter
efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina.946
His wife, Melissa, briefly held his seat while he was deployed in Afghanistan for 14 months in
2004 and 2005.947
324
Race Notes:
948
No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
Democrats have a long way to go in this still rock-solid Republican state before they can expect
to run a vigorous challenge for a Senate seat.
Cornyn isn’t the safest incumbent in the country, but Cornyn has consistently lead in the polls.
Wealthy trial lawyer Mikal Watts (D) stunned Democrats by dropping out of the race in late
October 2007; he had pledged to match Cornyn dollar for dollar. Instead, the Democratic
nominee is state Rep. Noriega, a decorated military veteran.
Noriega is a credible challenger, and conditions for Republicans are terrible even in Texas. But
while Noriega has managed to get above 40% in recent polls, Cornyn probably isn’t sweating
949
much.
Noriega has an attractive biography and a long record of public service, including his current stint
in the National Guard and time spent in combat in Afghanistan.
But his positions on major issues are boilerplate liberal, giving him a profile that is politically
untenable for most Texans — and far from approaching that of the conservative Texas Democrat
that occasionally appeals across party lines.
Additionally, Noriega and his campaign have shown a penchant for gaffes and mistakes that
prove the Democrat wasn’t ready for prime time in a state like Texas, where there are 20 distinct
media markets.950
Texas is Bush’s home state, but even there his popularity ratings have slipped, and Cornyn
wasn’t considered a shoo-in.951
It’s been very difficult for Noriega to build name recognition in the nation’s second most-populous
state and one of the most expensive in which to campaign.952
Noriega had hoped to make hay of Cornyn's unwavering support of President Bush's war policies.
In two televised debates between the Senate candidates, Noriega seized on questions about
Russia, Pakistan and U.S. policy on torture to assail Cornyn for supporting Bush policies on Iraq
and Afghanistan.
Cornyn fought back, criticizing Noriega for his opposition to the troop surge in Iraq and a bill to
extend government eavesdropping on phone calls for national defense.
The Senate race has been dominated by talk of the economy and fear of vanishing jobs and
retirement savings.
Noriega criticized Cornyn's vote for the $700 billion financial industry bailout, which he calls a
sellout to moneyed interests.
Cornyn calls Noriega a big-spending Democrat who will vote to raise taxes.953
Cornyn says mistakes have been made in Iraq, such as not having enough troops early on, but
he has largely defended the war effort in the past six years.
Noriega of Houston, a member of the Texas Army National Guard, says the war has been a
debacle and that troop withdrawals are overdue.954
325
Analysis by
Texas
Race Rating
Solid R
Safe Republican
Republican Favored
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general John Cornyn (R)
2,496,243
55%
$9,769,780
1,955,758
43%
$9,426,763
62,011
1%
John Cornyn (R)
478,825
77%
Bruce Lang (R)
46,907
8%
Douglas Deffenbaugh
(R)
43,611
7%
Dudley Mooney (R)
32,262
5%
Other
17,757
3%
Ron Kirk (D)
Other
2002
primary
Total Votes
1996 general Phil Gramm (R)
Victor M. Morales (D)
3,027,680
55% $14,078,131
2,428,776
44%
$978,862
Texas 22 District
Nick Lampson (D) Incumbent
Born: 02/14/1945 Jefferson Co., TX
Home: Stafford
Education: BA Lamar University, 1968; MEd Lamar University, 1971
Religion: Catholic
Elected Office: Jefferson Co. Tax Assessor, 1977-95; US House, 1996-2004, 06-present
Nick Lampson was born in Beaumont and lives in Stafford.
He was a public school science teacher from 1968 to 1971, and taught real estate at Lamar
University in Beaumont from 1971 to 1976.
He served as Jefferson County Tax Assessor-Collector from 1977 to 1995, and also served as
president of Jefferson County Home Health Care from 1993 to 1995.
He was elected to Congress in 1996 from the 9th Congressional District, which stretched along
southeast Texas from the Louisiana border to Galveston and east Houston. In 2004, when his
district was redrawn, he lost to GOP U.S. Rep. Ted Poe, who had been a colorful state district
judge in Houston.
But two years later, moved to the 22nd District and he returned to Washington and replaced Sen.
955
Tom DeLay, who helped draw those lines before resigning his seat amid ethics allegations.
326
Lampson voted against the Wall Street bailout package.
956
Lampson and his wife, Susan, have two children.957
Pete Olson (R)
Born: 12/09/1962, Fort Lewis, WA
Home: Sugar Land
Education: BA Rice University, 1985; JD University of Texas
Religion: United Methodist
Marital Status: Married (Nancy)
Professional Career: Chief of Staff to Senator John Cornyn (December 2002 - May 2007)
Pete Olson was born in Fort Lewis, Wash., and he now resides in Sugar Land. He earned a
bachelor's in computer science at Rice University and a law degree at University of Texas.
Olson's father was in the Army and the family moved frequently before settling in Seabrook in
1972.
Olson volunteered for the Navy in 1988, on the day he completed the Texas state bar exam, and
served nine years as a naval aviator. He flew on missions over the Persian Gulf in the first Gulf
War, along with missions over the Indian Ocean, the South China Sea and across much of the
Pacific.
Olson was transferred to the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 1994 and the following year was assigned as
a Naval Liaison Officer to the U.S. Senate, where he accompanied Sen. Phil Gramm on several
trips overseas. He joined Gramm's staff in 1998.
When Gramm retired and was succeeded by Sen. John Cornyn, Olson became Cornyn's chief of
staff from December 2002 until May 2007.
In 2008, Olson emerged from a field of 10 GOP candidates for the 22nd District seat once held by
House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.958
This is Pete Olson's first political campaign.959
Olson and his wife, Nancy, have two children.960
Race Notes:
Elected in 2006 in this Republican-leaning district in and around Houston, which was long the
power base of Tom DeLay, Lampson has known ever since that the GOP would target him for
defeat this year.
He’s been doing everything he can to play down his ties to the national Democratic Party,
including a voting record that he says displays political independence. He’s also has been
emphasizing issues that don’t fit on a political spectrum, such as responsive constituent service
and his efforts to protect children from kidnappers and online predators.
GOP officials are touting Pete Olson — a Navy veteran and former chief of staff to Republican
Sen. John Cornyn — who’s been targeting Lampson’s record on federal spending.961
Lampson has made hundreds of appearances in the suburban Houston district to bolster his
name recognition and blunt efforts by Republicans to oust him from what traditionally has been a
safe GOP seat.
Republicans made him their top House target in the 2008 elections.
327
The 22nd District swings around Houston's southern suburbs and has consistently voted about
60 percent Republican. However, its growing minority population may increase its percentage of
Democratic voters.962
In 2004, President Bush got 64% of the vote in the 22nd District.
963
Olson is among several Republican challengers across the country whose financial backing from
the National Republican Congressional Committee has sunk near the end of this cycle.
The committee has cut its local TV advertising budget on behalf of Olson to about $600,000 from
964
$1.5 million.
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
2006 general Nick Lampson (D)
76,775
52%
$3,578,097
61,938
42%
$912,977
9,526
6%
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs
(R)
76,924
62%
Bob Smither (Lib)
23,425
19%
Steve Stockman (R)
13,600
11%
Don Richardson (R)
7,405
6%
Other
2,568
2%
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs
(R)
Other
2006 special
2006 primary Nick Lampson (D)
2004 general Tom DeLay (R)
Richard Morrison (D)
Other
Unopposed
150,386
55%
$3,143,559
112,034
41%
$685,935
10,200
4%
2002 (59%); 2000 (59%); 1998 (64%);
1996 (53%)
328
Wisconsin
Electoral Votes:
10
First Polls Open:
8:00 AM ET
Battleground state
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
1,489,504
49.7
Bush
1,478,120
49.32
Other
29,383
0.98
11,384
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
49.32%
49.70%
2000
47.61%
47.83%
1996
38.48%
48.81%
1992
36.78%
41.13%
1988
47.80%
51.41%
1984
54.19%
45.02%
1980
47.90%
43.18%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 19
Clinton
58.1%
Obama
40.8%
Edwards
0.6%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 19
McCain
54.8%
Huckabee
37.0%
Paul
4.7%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Jim Doyle (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
5
3
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
18
15
0
State House
47
52
0
9:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
3,408,446
As Of
9/26/2008
VEP 2008
4,194,223
VEP Turnout 2004
76.73%
5,601,640
Total population
20
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
736,301
13.1%
65 years and over
4,783,646
85.4%
Non-Hispanic White
337,493
6.0%
Black
112,942
2.0%
Asian
271,830
4.9%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Milwaukee
602,191
Madison
228,775
Green Bay
100,781
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
5.0%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$50,578
U.S.
$50,740
329
Wisconsin – Battleground State
Wisconsin had fallen from the spotlight in the final week before Election Day. While Obama and
McCain had been making frequent stops here, neither has any plans to visit in the final days of
the campaign.
One reason may be that a recent string of polls have shown Obama with a double-digit lead. That
has led both candidates to focus on states where the race appears closer.965
Obama's campaign manager said Oct. 24 that the race for Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes was all
but over, with Obama building a nearly insurmountable lead. 966
Democrat John Kerry carried Wisconsin by only 11,000 votes in 2004 and McCain targeted the
state at the beginning of the race as one he could pick up.967
Wisconsin Republicans viewed McCain as a candidate who could win in Wisconsin, given his
history of bucking the party and reputation as a maverick. But in early October the Republican
National Committee decided to stop airing ads for McCain in the state, and by the end of the
month McCain was decreasing his ad buys in order to have enough money to keep at least some
ads on the air through the election.968 The Republican Party has instead started blanketing the
state with less expensive automated phone calls and mailings.969
The shift this fall is a sharp contrast to 2004, when both candidates made an all-out blitz on
Wisconsin the week before the election. Kerry held a rally in Madison with rocker Bruce
Springsteen that drew about 80,000 people, and President Bush visited Onalaska, Richland
Center, Cuba City and Ashwaubenon.970
Obama's organizational strength showed during the primary and he went on to a convincing 17point win. It was his 10th primary win in a row and one where he drew support from groups that
had been behind Clinton in other states, including white women and working-class whites.
Polls show that Obama continued to have support from those groups heading into the general
election campaign against McCain. Both candidates campaigned throughout the state in the
summer and early fall, focusing on areas where voters were viewed as most likely to be swayed:
Racine County, the Fox River, western Wisconsin near Minnesota, central Wisconsin near
Wausau, and in suburbs around Milwaukee.
McCain's first appearance after the Republican National Convention with his running mate Sarah
Palin was in Cedarburg, outside of Milwaukee. He and Palin appeared together in Green Bay and
Waukesha, drawing passionate crowds of supporters.971
Wisconsin is best known for its dairy products and its love of football. The Packers, a team from
the small city of Green Bay, claim some of the sport’s most obsessive fans, known as
"cheeseheads", a term also used to denote Wisconsans generally. But among politicos,
Wisconsin is the swing state that has failed to swing.
Earlier in the last century, the state was at the heart of the Progressive movement, enacting
liberal social reforms such as compensation for injured workers before the rest of the country did.
But Wisconsin pioneered conservative welfare reform in the 1990s, and its voters now plainly
prefer divided government on the state level: Wisconsin currently has a Democratic governor, Jim
Doyle, and a Republican-controlled state Assembly. And they have split almost exactly evenly
when it comes to the presidency. Al Gore took the state by only 5,700 votes in 2000, and John
Kerry won it by 11,400 in 2004--0.2% and 0.4% of the vote, respectively. The margins were a lot
closer than those in nearby Michigan, which gets a lot more attention.
To win Wisconsin, McCain will have to turn out lots of Republican voters in the suburbs north and
west of Milwaukee, a belt of towns where residents pride themselves on their German heritage
and their hilltop Catholic basilica.
330
Liberal Milwaukee, however, helps balance its conservative suburbs. A city of some 600,000, it
was once the home of four large breweries, only one of which (Miller) still operates there. "Brew
City" still boasts a sizeable manufacturing sector--Harley-Davidson is based in Milwaukee--and
Democratic-leaning ethnic enclaves. Remnants of Wisconsin’s labor unions also tilt factory towns
like Janesville in the south, where GM is shutting a big assembly plant, towards the Democrats.
The only place in Wisconsin more liberal than Milwaukee is Madison, the state’s capital and home
to the main campus of the University of Wisconsin.
The battlegrounds lie elsewhere, such as in the Fox River valley south-west of Green Bay. The
area has manufacturing towns (like Kimberly) and is heavily Catholic. It voted for George Bush in
2004, but it also plumped for Bill Clinton in 1996 and sent a Democrat to Congress in 2006. The
local paper industry has been volatile lately, which could help Obama this time. But he has had
difficulty elsewhere winning over Catholics and white working-class voters, though the addition of
the Catholic Joe Biden to his ticket may help.
Just south of Milwaukee, meanwhile, Racine and Kenosha Counties are changing from being
industrial zones into exurbs of Chicago, making them populous swing territory. Also competitive
are the rural counties along the Mississippi River in the west, Wisconsin’s dairy-land, where
populism seems to drift over the border from Minnesota. Kerry narrowly won much of this region,
a rare case of the Democrats holding onto their historical edge in a rural zone in a presidential
race.
Obama has some advantages. Much-publicized factory closures and the agitation of labor unions
will focus minds on his economic message. Still, past Democratic victories have depended on the
support of blue-collar whites and rural voters, the folks McCain hopes to pluck from the
Democrats this year.972
Everyone agrees McCain will trounce Obama in the conservative Milwaukee. But if Obama loses
by slightly less there than previous Democratic presidential candidates, the Illinois senator might
carry Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes if he wins big, as expected, in Madison and Milwaukee and
holds his own elsewhere.
That's why Obama's campaign has organized heavily in three western and northern counties that
border Milwaukee, territory previous Democratic candidates have written off.
Three suburban counties -- Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington -- favored President Bush over
John Kerry by 36 percentage points in the 2004 election. Bush beat Kerry by 128,000 votes in
these counties -- but lost the state by just 11,000.
"If Obama can crack them to any degree, he probably wins the state by several points," Madisonbased Democratic pollster Paul Maslin wrote on Salon.com earlier this year.
Democrats hope Obama makes gains in Waukesha, where the Democratic mayor has endorsed
Obama. State Republican Party executive director Mark Jefferson conceded the city is becoming
slightly less Republican, but said any Democratic gains would be slight and offset by increased
Republican turnout elsewhere.973
The winner will have to do well with independent-minded voters in eight counties that border
Minnesota along the Mississippi River.
While voters in the area have supported Democrats at the top of the ticket including Kerry and
Gore in the past two presidential races, they frequently elect Republicans to serve in the state
Legislature and in local offices.
The eight counties, running from where Wisconsin meets Dubuque, Iowa, north to the border with
Minnesota at the Twin Cities, all went for Democrats Kerry and Gore in 2004 and 2000. Another
331
three adjacent counties also went Democratic in both elections. But Republicans have been
elected to serve in nine of the 15 legislative districts covering the 11 counties.
McCain realizes its importance of the area as well, said Wisconsin Republican Party executive
director Mark Jefferson. It's critical for him to pick off voters from Obama in that area, even if he
974
doesn't win all the counties along the river, Jefferson said.
Something striking happened when Wisconsin voters went to the polls in 2004. Tens of
thousands of them backed President Bush's re-election and on the same ballot voted to send one
of his most liberal critics, Sen. Russ Feingold, back to Washington.
These ticket-splitting voters made a huge difference. The Republican president came up just
short in this politically divided state, losing to Democrat John Kerry by 11,000 votes. But Feingold
-- a Democrat who opposed the Iraq War and cast the only vote against the Patriot Act -trounced his GOP challenger by 331,000 votes.
Feingold is endorsing Obama, but both candidates have a history of working with Feingold to
pass major legislation in the Senate: campaign finance reform for McCain and ethics reform for
Obama. And they are appealing to Feingold's voters by trying to show they can be independentminded, promising to fight special interests and stand up for their principles.
These traits help explain Feingold's popularity in the state among this critical bloc of swing voters.
These Feingold voters can be found all over. The third-term senator carried 27 counties where
Bush also defeated Kerry in 2004 -- some by striking margins. In the bellwether area of Racine
County, for instance, Feingold won by 10,000 votes while Bush won there by 4,000.975
Wisconsin 8th District
Steve Kagen (D) Incumbent
Born: 12/12/1949, Appleton, WI
Home: Appleton
Education: BS University of Wisconsin, 1972; MD University of Wisconsin, 1976
Religion: Jewish
Marital status: Married (Gayle)
Steve Kagen was born in Appleton, Wis. He received his undergraduate degree from the
University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1972, and his medical degree from the university's school of
medicine in 1976.
He founded Kagen Allergy Clinics in Appleton, Green Bay, Oshkosh and Fond du Lac.
Allergist Steve Kagen mounted his first run for public office in 2006. He emerged from a crowded
Democratic primary with 48 percent of the vote, enough to win the election over Green Bay
business consultant Jamie Wall and former Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum.
He and his wife have four children.976
John Gard (R)
Born: 08/03/1963, Milwaukee, WI
Home: Peshtigo
Education: BS University of Wisconsin - La Crosse, 1986
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Cate)
Elected Office: WI Assembly, 1987-2007
332
John Gard was born in Milwaukee and now resides in Peshtigo. He earned his undergraduate
degree at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse in 1986.
Gard was elected to the Wisconsin Assembly in 1987 and rose to the top position of Assembly
speaker in 2003. He left the Legislature in 2006 for an unsuccessful run for the U.S. House.
Gard founded Gard Business Group, a consulting firm. He and his wife, Cate, have two
children.977
Race Notes:
Kagen, a physician, now has a bit of incumbency on his side as he readies for his rematch with
Gard, a former state Assembly speaker who lost by just 6,000 votes last time. But the two are
nearly equally matched in fundraising. The northeast district leans Republican: Bush carried it in
2000 and in 2004 but has since seen his approval ratings drop statewide. Kagen picked up at
least one conservative plaudit when he won the endorsement of the National Rifle Association,
and a poll this month indicated he had a solid lead. Obama should provide some help; his lead in
Wisconsin is big enough now that John McCain’s campaign has pulled its ads from the state.978
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
2006 primary
2004 general
Total Votes
Steve Kagen (D)
141,570
51%
$3,187,330
John Gard (R)
135,622
49%
$2,831,522
Steve Kagen (D)
25,623
48%
Jamie Wall (D)
15,427
29%
Nancy Nusbaum
(D)
12,731
24%
Mark Green (R)
248,070
70%
$433,513
Dottie Le Clair (D)
105,513
30%
$11,160
333
334
Wyoming
Electoral Votes:
3
First Polls Open:
9:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
167,629
68.86%
Kerry
70,776
29.07%
Other
5023
2.06%
96,853
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
68.86%
29.07%
2000
67.76%
27.70%
1996
49.81%
36.84%
1992
39.56%
33.98%
1988
60.53%
38.01%
1984
70.51%
28.24%
1980
62.64%
27.97%
Democrats
Caucus Date:
March. 08
Obama
61.4%
Clinton
37.8%
Republicans
Caucus Date:
Jan. 05
Romney
67%
Thompson
25%
Hunter
8%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Dave Freudenthal (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
0
1
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
7
23
0
State House
17
43
0
9:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
62,954
Republican
145,267
Other
799
24,121
Total
233,141
As Of
10/1/2008
VEP 2008
404,348
VEP Turnout 2004
65%
522,830
Total population
51
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
63,901
12.2%
65 years and over
456,567
87.3%
Non-Hispanic White
6,410
1.2%
Black
12,899
2.5%
Native American
38,409
7.3%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Cheyenne
55,641
Casper
53,003
Laramie
27,241
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
3.3%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$51,731
U.S.
$50,740
335
WYOMING – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Michael Enzi (R) Incumbent
Born: 02-01-1944, Bremerton, WA
Home: Gillette
Education: George Washington U., B.S. 1966, Denver U., M.B.A. 1968
Marital Status: married (Diana)
Elected Office: Gillette Mayor, 1975–82; WY House of Reps., 1986–90; WY Senate, 1990–96.
Military Career: WY Natl. Guard, 1967–73.
Professional Career: Owner, NZ Shoes, 1969–95; Dir. & Chmn., First WY Bank of Gillette, 1978–
88; Accounting Mgr. & Computer Programmer, Dunbar Well Service, 1985–97; Educ. Comm. of
States, 1989–93; Dir., Black Hills Corp., 1992–96; Western Interstate Comm. for Higher Educ.,
1995–96.
Sen. Enzi is seeking a third term in the Senate.
Mike Enzi was born in Bremerton, Wash., where his father served with the U.S. Navy during
World War II. His family moved to Thermopolis, Wyo., and then to Sheridan, Wyo., where Enzi
completed his elementary and high school educations.
He received a bachelor's degree in accounting from George Washington University in 1966 and a
master's of business administration from the University of Denver in 1968.
After marrying his wife Diana in 1969, the two moved to Gillette, Wyo., to open the NZ shoe store,
opening a similar store in Sheridan a short time later. The couple operated the store for 25 years
before Enzi took a job as the accounting manager, computer programmer and safety trainer for
Dunbar Well Service in Gillette.
He was the youngest person ever elected as Gillette's mayor in 1974 and he served in that
position for eight years.
He won his first term in Wyoming's House in 1986, moving to the state Senate in 1991.
He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996, replacing the retiring Sen. Alan Simpson.
In the Senate, Enzi has been active in issues involving opening borders to greater trade, rewriting
workplace safety rules and setting new business standards.
An accountant by trade, Enzi is a fervent supporter of small businesses and will regularly
champion their causes.979
It was widely speculated early in 2008 that Enzi would not seek re-election to the U.S. Senate
after he was passed over for a second time for a seat on the powerful Senate Finance
Committee.
Enzi confirmed after announcing his re-election campaign that he'd seriously thought about not
running.980
Enzi and his wife have three children.981
336
Christopher J. Rothfuss (D)
Born: 10-21-1972; Ann Arbor, MI
Residence: Laramie
Education: PhD Univ. of Washington
Prev. Occupation: Scientist
Chris Rothfuss is currently a University of Wyoming instructor.
Rothfuss, 35, is a native of Ann Arbor, Mich. His family moved in 1985 to Casper where he
graduated from Natrona County High School.
He attended UW where he earned his undergraduate degree in international studies in 1994. He
was a member of the UW debate team and was the team's captain his senior year.
He decided to continue his schooling, switching to chemical engineering because an engineering
background would help him understand energy issues and climate change. He earned his
doctorate from the University of Washington.
In 1996, Rothfuss married his wife, Heather, just two days after he defended his master's degree
in chemical engineering.
He and his wife have two boys and live in Laramie, where Rothfuss now does contract work for
an oilfield service company and teaches political science and chemical engineering courses at
the University of Wyoming. His wife is a research scientist and teacher at UW.
He worked for about two years in Washington, D.C., as a policy analyst on science issues with
the U.S. State Department. His work included helping to craft U.S. foreign policy on issues such
as missile technology export control, nanotechnology and energy.
In 2006, Rothfuss and his family moved back to Wyoming to be closer to their families.
When he decided to run for the Senate he declared himself a Democrat but says he maintains his
independence from partisan politics.982
Rothfuss beat retired house painter Al Hamburg in Aug. 19's primary.
Rothfuss has not sought elected office before.983
337
Race Notes:
Enzi is one of the nation's safest Republicans up in 2008.
Polls have shown Enzi with a huge lead in the race.
Enzi is seeking a third six-year term. He is being challenged by Democrat Chris Rothfuss, a
University of Wyoming instructor from Laramie.
Enzi doesn't know how many more terms in the Senate he might serve.
984
Rothfuss decided to make his first run for public office this year because of a combination of
things -- two U.S. senate seats up for election this year in Wyoming, the strong showing
Democratic congressional candidate Gary Trauner showed in narrowly losing to Rep. Barbara
Cubin in 2006 and the enthusiasm generated during the historic contest between Barack Obama
and Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Holding a doctorate degree in chemical engineering, Rothfuss said energy will be his top issue if
elected and that he has the knowledge and background to help guide policies.
Rothfuss said, "There are zero Ph.D.s in the Senate, there are zero technical experts on energy."
Congress needs people with technical backgrounds because of the complexity of the issues
surrounding energy, such as global warming and carbon sequestration, he said.
The cost of running a statewide campaign has been a sobering experience for Rothfuss. He has
spent some of his own money and is his own campaign manager, which saves money but takes
time away from campaigning.985
Enzi reported raising nearly $2 million heading into October and having $884,000 still available.
Rothfuss reported raising $23,000 and having $6,700 on hand.
That calculates to 132 times more money for Enzi than Rothfuss.986
Analysis by
Wyoming (Enzi)
Race Rating
Solid R
Safe Republican
Safe Republican
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
Michael Enzi (R)
Total Votes
133,710
73%
$884,114
49,570
27%
$8,467
2002 primary Michael Enzi (R)
78,612
86%
Crosby Allen (R)
12,931
14%
Michael Enzi (R)
114,116
54%
$953,572
Kathy Karpan (D)
89,103
42%
$814,258
7,858
4%
Joyce Corcoran (D)
1996 general
Other
338
WYOMING – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. John Barrasso (R) Incumbent
Born: 07-21-1952, Reading, PA
Home: Casper
Education: Georgetown U., B.A. 1974, M.D. 1978
Marital Status: divorced
Elected Office: WY Senate, 2002-07.
Professional Career: Orthopedic surgeon 1983-2007; RNC Committeeman, 1992-96; Chief of
staff, WY Medical Center, 2003-05.
John Barrasso was born in Reading, Pa., and lives in Casper. A doctor, he received a bachelor's
degree from Georgetown University in 1974 and a medical degree from Georgetown in 1978.
He practiced at Casper Orthopedic Associates from 1983 until 2007. He also has been chief of
staff at the Wyoming Medical Center at Casper and president of the Wyoming Medical Society.
For years Barrasso was perhaps best known in Wyoming for the medical advice he gave in a
regular segment on KTWO Television, and for his medical columns appearing in newspapers
statewide.
Barrasso's first political appearance was his 1996 campaign for the U.S. Senate. He lost in the
Republican primary to Mike Enzi, now Wyoming's senior senator. In 2002, Barrasso was elected
to the Wyoming Senate.
Soon after the death of Sen. Craig Thomas of leukemia, Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal
appointed Barrasso to the U.S. Senate on June 22, 2007.
Under state law, Barrasso will be up for election in 2008. The person elected will serve out the
remaining four years in Thomas' term and be up for re-election in 2012.
Barrasso has staked out strong positions on a few issues not very controversial in his home state.
He opposes oil and gas drilling in much of the Wyoming Range, a scenic area in western
Wyoming.
Barrasso is divorced and has two children. On Jan. 1, 2008, Barrasso married Bobbi Brown of
Casper, who was Thomas' state director for nearly 17 years.987
Nick H. Carter (D)
Born: 12/11/1963; Midland, TX
Residence: Gillette
Education: BA OK State Univ., 1986; JD Univ. of WY, 1990
Religion: Catholic
Prev. Occupation: Attorney
Nick Carter is a 44-year-old criminal defense lawyer from Gillette.
Carter said his experience as a criminal defense lawyer has been good preparation for the
campaign.988
Carter has not sought elected office before.
989
He narrowly won the Democratic primary on Aug. 19.
339
Race Notes:
Barrasso appears set to win the special election to finish out the term of the late Rep. Sen. Craig
Thomas, who died of leukemia June 4, 2007, less than a year after he won a third term.
Barrasso was appointed to the seat in the wake of Thomas’s death and does not have a strong
challenger for November’s election.
This is one of two Senate race this year in Wyoming. In the other, Sen. Michael B. Enzi is running
990
for a third term.
Though potentially a target because of the often-quirky nature of special elections, Barrasso
should be fine against Carter.
Barrasso is running in a solidly conservative state and should be further buoyed by the fact that it
991
is a presidential year.
Carter is fighting uphill and he knows it. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats better
than two to one in Wyoming. And while Barrasso's campaign reported $1.1 million in cash at the
end of September, Carter had just $7,650.
Carter is traveling the state in his own motorhome with his logo "Wyoming Tough" emblazoned on
the side. He's talking to anybody who will listen, meeting people door-to-door, at senior centers
and county party functions.
In his short time in office, Barrasso hasn't been shy about using his position to gain an
advantage. He recently launched a series of live conference calls with residents around the state.
He uses the calls to answer questions from citizens ranging from concerns about pending
legislation to trouble getting overdue government benefit checks.
While Barrasso's office contends the calls have nothing to with the campaign, Carter says he's
skeptical and believes voters want more from their senator.
Carter blasts Barrasso, an orthopedic surgeon in Casper and former state senator, for his votes
against bills to fund Medicare and expand a federal children's health insurance program. But
Barrasso has defended each vote.
On the Medicare issue, Barrasso voted this summer against a bill that would have blocked a
scheduled 10.6 percent pay cut for doctors treating Medicare patients. Congress ultimately
passed the bill over President Bush's veto.
Barrasso said he supported preserving government payments to doctors treating Medicare
patients, but wanted to make sure that Congress continued to allow seniors to use federal dollars
to pay for their own health insurance.
On the children's health insurance issue, Carter also hammers on Barrasso for voting last year
against expanding a federal children's health insurance program, called S-CHIP. Barrasso says
the assistance should be focused on low-income children and not expanded to cover those in
higher-income families.
On environmental issues, Carter said the nation needs a comprehensive federal energy policy,
rather than setting aside certain areas like the Wyoming Range. Barrasso has sponsored
legislation to place restrictions on new drilling in the western Wyoming range.
On other hot-button issues with Wyoming voters, Carter said he's for gun rights and for abortion
rights.992
340
Analysis by
Wyoming (Barrasso)
Race Rating
Solid R
Safe Republican
Safe Republican
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
2006 general Craig Thomas (R)
135,174
70%
$1,392,057
Dale Groutage (D)
57,671
30%
$141,164
Craig Thomas (R)
Unopposed
2000 general Craig Thomas (R)
157,622
74%
$762,833
47,087
22%
$4,187
8,950
4%
2006
primary
Mel Logan (D)
Margaret Dawson
(Lib)
Wyoming At-Large
Cynthia Lummis (R)
Born: 09/10/1954, Cheyenne, WY
Home: Cheyenne
Education: BS University of Wyoming, 1978; JD University of Wyoming, 1985
Religion: Lutheran
Marital status: Married (Al Wiederspahn)
Elected Office: WY House, 1978-83; WY House, 1985-93; WY Senate, 1993-94; WY Treasurer,
1998-2006
Professional Career: Public Official, Ranch Owner, Attorney
Cynthia Lummis has one of the best-known names in Wyoming politics, a legacy from 14 years in
the Legislature and two terms as state treasurer.
Lummis is from a prominent ranching family. She grew up on the outskirts of Cheyenne and is a
former Cheyenne Frontier Days Miss Frontier.
In 1978, at 24, she became the youngest woman elected to the Legislature.
She has never lost a race. She breezed to re-election to the state House in the 1980s, facing
tough competition only in her one state Senate race in 1992.
Lummis didn't seek re-election when her Senate term was up in 1994. She went to work as an
aide to Republican Gov. Jim Geringer and then as temporary director of the Office of State Lands
and Investments.
She easily was elected state treasurer in 1998 and ran unopposed for re-election in 2002.
But this election is a new challenge for Lummis. She faced a significant primary challenge from
Johnson County rancher Mark Gordon, who outspent Lummis more than 4 to 1.
341
Lummis beat the political newcomer 46 percent to 38 percent.993
Gary Trauner (D)
Born: 12/17/1958, Mount Vernon, NY
Home: Wilson
Education: BA Colgate University, 1980; MBA New York University, 1982
Religion: N/A
Marital status: Married (Terry)
Elected Office: Teton Co. School Board, 2002-06
After growing up in suburban New York and starting his career working in consulting and finance
for two major public companies, Trauner and his wife Terry moved to Jackson Hole 18 years ago.
The couple has two sons, ages 15 and 9.
In Wyoming, Trauner started a consulting firm to advise startup companies. In that role, Trauner
said he has worked with companies involved in pursuits as diverse as building ice rinks at
shopping malls and selling mail-order wine.
Trauner also served three years as vice president of operations and finance for Teton Trust
Company, a money management firm, and helped establish OneWest.net, an Internet service
provider that sold out after five years to a bigger company.
Trauner has also held elected positions in Jackson Hole, including serving on the Teton County
school board, from 2002 to 2006, and on the board of a local water and sewer district.
Trauner fell just short in his 2006 bid for Congress, losing to incumbent Republican U.S. Rep.
Barbara Cubin by 1,102 votes, or half a percentage point. This time around, Cubin isn't seeking
re-election and Trauner is running against Lummis.
Since his 2006 run for Congress, Trauner co-founded a pet food company called Mulligan's Stew
Pet Food.994
Race Notes:
Former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis should have had a clear shot to win the seat, given the
Republicans’ twofold advantage in voter registration in the state, but national trends are coming to
bear even in the Equality State.
Recent polling indicates she is in a statistical tie with Democrat Gary Trauner, who lost to Cubin
two years ago by only 1,012 votes.995
Trauner is running neck-and-neck with Republican Cynthia Lummis, a former state treasurer and
legislator, to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin. Though it may seem unlikely in
this fiercely Republican state, he has a real shot at becoming the first Democrat to win Wyoming's
only House seat since 1978, when Cheney replaced Democrat Teno Roncalio.996
Lummis has had a couple stumbles in her U.S. House campaign. Just after winning the primary,
she suggested that Trauner couldn't identify with rural Wyoming residents because he grew up on
the East Coast. The remark prompted critical editorials in Wyoming's two largest newspapers.997
Lummis has poured $100,000 into her campaign in the final days of a neck-and-neck
congressional race against Trauner. Meanwhile, both candidates' parties are flooding the
Wyoming airwaves with new ads.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, House Republicans' campaign arm, has also
infused more than $350,000 into the race in the last week, including paying for a broadcast ad
that criticizes Trauner on the issue of taxes and calls him a "typical liberal."
342
Trauner, who barely stopped campaigning after his loss to Cubin, has consistently been at a cash
advantage over Lummis, raising a total of $1.31 million to Lummis' $833,787 by the end of
September. Trauner also had more cash on hand heading into October, with almost $600,000.
Lummis had a little more than $200,000.
Trauner is also getting help from Washington. The Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee is spending around $300,000 on the race, including for two ads that focus on taxes.
Trauner said he is also rolling out two of his own new ads this week, one featuring Democratic
Gov. Dave Freudenthal, who has endorsed him.998
Trauner has cast himself as a moderate Democrat, touting his career in business, his support for
gun rights and advocacy for an energy plan that incorporates both conventional sources like coal
999
and sustainable sources like wind.
This is Vice President Dick Cheney's old House seat.
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
2004 general
Barbara Cubin (R)
93,336
48%
$1,268,578
Gary Trauner (D)
92,324
48%
$940,182
7,481
4%
Barbara Cubin (R)
50,004
60%
Bill Winney (R)
33,287
40%
132,107
55%
$944,908
99,989
42%
$373,436
6,938
3%
Thomas Rankin
(Lib)
2006 primary
Total Votes
Barbara Cubin (R)
Ted Ladd (D)
Other
343
344
Iowa
Electoral Votes:
7
First Polls Open:
8:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
751,957
49.90%
Kerry
741,898
49.23%
Other
13,053
0.87%
10,059
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
49.90%
49.23%
2000
48.22%
48.54%
1996
39.92%
50.26%
1992
37.27%
43.29%
1988
44.50%
54.71%
1984
53.27%
45.89%
1980
51.31%
38.60%
2008 Caucus Results
Democrats
Caucus Date:
Jan. 03
Obama
38%
Edwards
30%
Clinton
29%
Republicans
Caucus Date:
Jan. 03
Huckabee
34.4%
Romney
25.2%
McCain
13.1%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Chet Culver (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
3
2
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
30
20
0
State House
53
47
0
10:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
724,027
Republican
620,657
Other
524
765,329
Total
2,110,537
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
2,246,671
VEP Turnout 2004
69.98%
2,988,046
Total population
30
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
438,448
14.7%
65 years and over
2,708,263
90.6%
Non-Hispanic White
77,477
2.6%
Black
47,365
1.6%
Asian
119,734
4.0%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Des Moines
196,998
Cedar Rapids
126,396
Davenport
98,975
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
4.2%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$47,292
U.S.
$50,740
345
IOWA – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Tom Harkin (D) Incumbent
Born: 11-19-1939, Cumming
Home: Cumming
Education: IA St. U., B.S. 1962, Catholic U., J.D. 1972
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: married (Ruth)
Elected Office: U.S. House of Reps., 1974–84
Military Career: Navy, 1962–67; Naval Reserves, 1969–72.
Professional Career: Practicing atty., 1972–74; Staff Aide, House Select Cmte. on U.S.
Involvement in SE Asia, 1973–74.
Sen. Harkin is seeking a fifth term.
Thomas R. Harkin was born in Cumming, where he still resides. Harkin received a bachelor's
degree from Iowa State University in 1962 and a law degree from Catholic University in
Washington, D.C., in 1972. He served in the Navy, 1962-67. He then practiced law.
Harkin was elected to the U.S. House in 1974 and was re-elected four times, serving from 1975
to 1985. He was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1984.
Harkin made a bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1992, and won the Iowa
caucuses as a favorite son candidate. He dropped out of the race March 9, 1992.
Tom Harkin, a tough-minded and pragmatic liberal, has represented some of the country's most
conservative constituencies for more than two decades. But he has built his base with a solid
service operation and tireless campaigning.1000
Harkin is chairman of the Agriculture Committee and is a senior member of the Appropriations
Committee.1001
Harkin and his wife, Ruth, have two children.1002
Christopher Reed (R)
Born: December 5, 1971 Solon, Iowa
Home: Marion, Iowa
Marital Status: Not Stated
Professional Career: Businessman (operates telephone answering business)
Education: Solon High School
Military Career: Navy
Christopher Reed was born in Solon and currently lives in Marion.
Reed graduated from Solon High School and touts his background as a wrestler at that school
and his service in the United States Navy after graduating.
Reed is making his first run for public office.
Christopher Reed served in the Navy after graduating from high school and says that background
led to his success in business. He operates a telephone answering business in Marion.
He has not been visibly active in Republican politics but has focused on his business
1003
operations.
346
Race Notes:
Harkin’s quest for a fifth term has been much easier than he could possibly have anticipated.
Republicans failed to field a top-flight candidate in this election; little-known businessman
Christopher Reed doesn’t have the stature, campaign funds or political organization to give
Harkin much of a race.
A staunch liberal in a mildly Democratic-leaning state, Harkin didn’t win more than 56 percent of
the vote in any of his previous four campaigns, including one to defeat a Republican senator in
1984 and three more against Republican members of the U.S. House.1004
Reed’s fundraising has been, to be charitable, anemic; he has failed to attract any sort of buzz —
even as an underdog insurgent type of candidate; and he’s running in a state where Obama (has
1005
maintained a solid lead in the presidential contest.
This is a welcome change for Harkin; he finally gets to enjoy a reelection cycle.
He would have probably enjoyed it more if Reed hadn’t accused Harkin, a fellow Navy veteran, of
aiding the enemy because of his call to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq on a scheduled timetable.
In a debate on Iowa Public Television, Reed called Harkin the "Tokyo Rose" of al-Qaida and
Middle East terrorism. "We're taking advice from somebody who has an eight-year history of
becoming the Tokyo Rose of al Qaida and Middle East terrorism," Reed said.
Reed specifically said Harkin was "providing aid and comfort to the enemy," language consistent
with the U.S. definition of treason. When asked by the moderator whether he was accusing
Harkin of treason, Reed replied, ""No. I'm accusing him of giving our enemies the playbook."
After the debate, Harkin called Reed's comments "beyond the pale." and says Reed has lost his
bearings.1006
Harkin, flush with a campaign bankroll of nearly $4 million, said he will give half that amount
toward electing other Democrats in Iowa and around the country.
Harkin has raised $8,398,331 during the six-year election cycle and had $3,956,998 in his
campaign treasury.
Reed has raised $46,510 overall. He reported $21,799 cash on hand at the end of September.1007
Analysis by
Iowa
Race Rating
Solid D
Safe Democratic
Safe Democrat
Currently Safe
347
Election Results
Candidate
2002
general
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
Tom Harkin (D)
554,278
54%
$6,897,168
Greg Ganske
(R)
447,892
44%
$5,392,510
20,905
2%
Other
2002
primary
Tom Harkin (D)
Unopposed
1996
general
Tom Harkin (D)
634,166
52%
$6,070,137
Jim Ross
Lightfoot (R)
571,807
47%
$2,439,679
Prior winning
percentages:
1990 (54%); 1984 (55%); 1982 House
(59%); 1980 House (60%); 1978 House
(59%); 1976 House (65%); 1974 House
(51%)
348
Montana
Electoral Votes:
3
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
9:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
10:00 PM ET
Polling places with fewer than 400 registered voters may close early if everyone has cast a ballot.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
266,063
59.07%
Kerry
173,710
38.56%
Other
10,672
2.37%
92,353
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
59.07%
38.56%
2000
58.44%
33.36%
1996
44.11%
41.23%
1992
35.12%
37.63%
1988
52.07%
46.20%
1984
60.47%
38.18%
1980
56.82%
32.43%
Democrats
Primary Date:
June. 03
Obama
56.6%
Clinton
41.1%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Romney
38.3%
Paul
24.5%
McCain
22.0%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Brian Schweitzer (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
0
1
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
26
24
0
State House
49
50
1
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
652,301
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
766,791
VEP Turnout 2004
64.36%
957,861
Total population
44
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
133,578
13.9%
65 years and over
845,026
88.2%
Non-Hispanic White
5,926
0.6%
Black
60,578
6.3%
Native American
26,725
2.8%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Billings
101,876
Missoula
67,165
Great Falls
58,827
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
4.6%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$43,531
U.S.
$50,740
349
Montana – Governor Race
Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) Incumbent
Born: 09-04-1955, Havre
Home: Whitefish, MT
Education: O St. U., B.S. 1978; MT St. U., M.S. 1980
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: married (Nancy)
Elected office: governor of Montana, 2004 - .
Professional Career: Farm developer, 1980-86; Farmer, rancher, 1986-present; Committee
1008
Member, Montana Farm Service Agency, 1993-99.
Before being elected to his first term in 2004, Schweitzer was a rancher.
In the early 1980s, Schweitzer went off to the Middle East, where he developed a 15,000-acre
farm in the Sahara in Libya and dairy, grain and vegetable farms in Saudi Arabia on irrigated
cropland.
In 1986 he returned to Montana and bought two farms.
In 1993, when the Clinton administration took office, Schweitzer was appointed to the threemember, part-time Farm Service Agency that helps distribute federal payments to farmers.
Schweitzer lost a Senate race against two-term Sen. Conrad Burns in 2000.1009
When elected in 2004, Schweitzer was the first Democrat to become Montana governor in 16
years.1010
Schweitzer has had very high job ratings, although he says, “They like my dog better than me, but
in politics you kind of ride the wave.”1011
State Sen. Roy Brown (R)
Born: 02-16-1951, Casper, Wyoming
Home: Billings, MT
Education: Montana Tech B.S. in Petroleum Engineering
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: married (Kim)
Elected office: State House of Representatives, 1998-2006, elected speaker of the house in
2002; State Senate, 2006-present
Professional Career: has worked both in the oil and real estate businesses1012
At Billings Central High School, a Catholic school, Roy Brown played football and basketball and
serving as captain of the track team. When he was a senior, the student body elected him to his
first office: vice president of the student council.
Brown started in the oil business at 18, making $3 an hour working summers as a roughneck on a
drilling crew in eastern Montana's oil fields.
In 1986, Brown partnered with Roger Bacon to start B&B Production, a drilling company that at its
peak had 30 to 40 employees operating wells in Montana, Wyoming and Nevada.
After B&B was bought out in 1995, Brown kept alive a subsidiary, RLB Oil Co., to run 10
apartment buildings in Billings he'd bought as an investment.
Brown holds a minority share in Energy Laboratories, the business run by his brother, Bill.
1013
350
Race Notes:
1014
Incumbent Brian Schweitzer is heavily favored to win.
Schweitzer and his Republican challenger state Sen. Roy Brown, have both called for increased
1015
energy development, lower taxes and a more open state government.
Through the entire primary and general campaign as of Oct. 15, Schweitzer raised $1.8 million
1016
overall to Brown's $710,100.
In mid-October, Republican candidate Roy Brown accused Democrats of spreading a false rumor
that he is a vegetarian in this meat-loving state. "I am not and have never been a vegetarian,"
1017
Brown said.
The political grappling between the candidates is old news in Helena. Back in January 2005, it
was Brown, then a soft-spoken House Republican Leader, who rebutted Schweitzer's first State
of the State speech. And it was Brown who led early GOP legislative battles against Schweitzer,
whose garrulous, larger-than-life persona frequently lands him in the public limelight but also
1018
attracts political enemies.
Election Results
Candidate
2004 general
2004 primary
2000 general
Total Votes
Brian Schweitzer
(D)
225,016
50%
Bob Brown (R)
205,313
46%
Other
15,817
4%
Brian Schweitzer
(D)
68,738
73%
John Vincent (D)
26,057
27%
Judy Martz (R)
209,135
51%
Mark O'Keefe (D)
193,131
47%
7,926
2%
Other
MONTANA – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Max Baucus (D) Incumbent
Born: December 11, 1941; Helena
Home: Helena
Education: Stanford U., B.A. 1964; LL.B, 1967
Marital status: Married (Wanda Heinz)
Elected Office: U.S. Senate, 1979-present, U.S. House of Reps., 1975-1979, MT House of Reps.,
1973-1975.
Professional Career: Attorney, Civil Aeronautics Board, 1967-1968; Attorney, SEC, 1968-1971
Sen. Baucus is seeking a sixth term in the Senate.
Max Baucus was born in Helena, Mont., where he still resides. Baucus graduated from Helena
High School in 1959.
He received a bachelor's degree in economics from Stanford University in 1964 and a law degree
from Stanford in 1967.
351
He worked as an attorney with the Civil Aeronautics Board from 1967 to 1968, and with the
Securities and Exchange Commission from 1968 to 1971. Baucus practiced law in Montana.
He was elected to the Montana House in 1972 and to the U.S. House in 1974 and 1976.
He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1978 and is serving his fifth term.
After the 1978 election, incumbent Democratic Sen. Paul Hatfield resigned and the governor
1019
appointed Baucus to fill the vacancy for the remaining days of Hatfield's term.
In 2002, Baucus spent $6.2 million against a Republican opponent who briefly dropped out of the
1020
race following reports of business problems he had years before.
Baucus and his wife, Wanda Minge, have a son.
Baucus is an heir to a Montana ranch fortune, grew up on his family's 125,000-acre spread near
1021
Helena, and has deep roots in the state.
Bob Kelleher (R)
Born: March 30, 1923; Oak Park, IL
Home: Butte
Education: Mount Carmel College, PhB 1945; Catholic University of America, JD 1950, MA 1956
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Widowed
Military Career: U.S. Army (graduated - Army War College, Army Intelligence School, Army
Command & General Staff School)
Professional Career: Attorney, 1958-present; Adjunct Professor, Montana State University, 19821985; Civil Aeronautics Board, 1967-1968; Attorney, SEC, 1968-1971
Bob Kelleher was born in Oak Park, Ill. and currently lives in Butte, Mont. He has served in the
U.S. Army, briefly studied to be a priest and went to law school at Catholic University of America
before moving to Montana in the 1950s to run a law practice.
He was a professor at Montana State University for a time in the early 1980s.
Bob Kelleher shocked Republicans by coming out on top of a crowded GOP primary in June.
He has been on many Montana ballots over the years, stretching back to the 1960s. He has run
under several different party labels, including the Democratic, Republican and Green parties.1022
Kelleher has been on the ballot at least 16 times over the last four decades in Montana.1023
Kelleher holds little in common with most Republicans, except perhaps an opposition to abortion.
Most of Kelleher's other views are very liberal -- in many cases more liberal than Democratic
opponent U.S. Sen. Max Baucus.
The Butte attorney has been an active proponent of a parliamentary form of government. He was
a delegate to the state's 1972 constitutional convention.
Kelleher has seven children, and is currently widowed.1024
Race Notes:
Republican recruitment failures mean that Baucus is safe to win a sixth term against political
1025
gadfly Bob Kelleher despite the state’s Republican lean.
352
Baucus has high approval ratings, millions in campaign cash and statewide name recognition to
1026
spare. Political observers have given Kelleher little chance of winning.
It doesn’t get any easier for Baucus. The Senate Finance chairman is facing perennial candidate
Kelleher, whose platform includes changing the federal government into a parliamentary system.
Baucus was prepared for a more formidable challenge. Before the June primary, Baucus had
more than $5.5 million in the bank, dozens of staffers on the ground and campaign offices all over
1027
the state.
Kelleher is known to many for being lampooned on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show" back in
2002 when he was running as a Green Party candidate against Baucus. The show poked fun at
Kelleher's bushy eyebrows, and now the candidate is passing out sunglasses with oversized,
fake brows.
Kelleher ran numerous times as a Democrat over the years, losing in the primary for such seats
ranging from governor to U.S. Senate. More recently Kelleher turned to the Republican Party,
shocking almost everyone when he emerged from a crowded primary field in June and won with
less than a third of a splintered vote.
Observers speculated Kelleher's name recognition from years of being on the ballot propelled him
to the front of an unknown pack of challengers. But Kelleher believes he was chosen by voters
hungry for dramatic change.
Kelleher indeed offers dramatic change, especially for Republicans. He has favored gun control,
an immediate end to the Iraq war, a large increase in social welfare programs -- as well as
rewriting the U.S. Constitution to end the "dysfunctional" separation of powers in the current
system and change to a parliament.
The Montana Republican Party wants little to do with Kelleher, who is more liberal than his
Democratic opponent on some issues. The GOP did not even give Kelleher a speaking slot at
their summer convention.
Baucus, too, is ignoring Kelleher. The incumbent let it be known right after Kelleher's primary win
that there would be no debates. A spokesman said they didn't want to subject the senator to a
"circus."
Kelleher is not taking it personally, and he knows this could be his last hurrah. At 85, the Butte
resident isn't sure if he will make another run for office, so he is spending some of his savings in a
race he thinks he can win.1028
Analysis by
Montana
Race Rating
Solid D
Safe Democratic
Safe Democrat
Currently Safe
353
Election Results
Candidate
2002
general
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
Max Baucus (D)
204,853
63%
$6,189,970
Mike Taylor (R)
103,611
32%
$1,839,020
18,073
5%
Other
2002
primary
Max Baucus (D)
Unopposed
1996
general
Max Baucus (D)
201,935
50%
$4,280,747
Denny Rehberg
(R)
182,111
45%
$1,358,165
19,276
5%
Becky Shaw
(Reform)
Prior winning
percentages:
1990 (68%); 1984 (57%); 1978 (56%);
1976 House (66%); 1974 House (55%)
354
Nevada
Electoral Votes:
5
Battleground state
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
10:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
Polls may close early if every registered voter has cast a ballot.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
418,690
50.47
Kerry
397,190
47.88
Other
13,707
1.65
21,500
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
50.47%
47.88%
2000
49.52%
45.98%
1996
42.91%
43.93%
1992
34.73%
37.36%
1988
58.86%
37.92%
1984
65.85%
31.97%
1980
62.54%
26.89%
2008 Caucus Results
Democrats
Primary Date:
Jan. 19
Clinton
50.77%
Obama
45.12%
Edwards
3.74%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Jan. 19
Romney
51.1%
Paul
13.7%
McCain
12.7%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Jim Gibbons (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
1
2
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
10
11
0
State House
27
15
0
10:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
597,921
Republican
504,572
Other
75,340
216,354
Total
1,394,187
As Of
Sept. 2008
VEP 2008
1,727,981
VEP Turnout 2004
55.60%
2,565,382
Total population
35
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
285,654
11.1%
65 years and over
1,486,987
58.0%
Non-Hispanic White
204,156
8.0%
Black
157,567
6.1%
Asian
644,484
25.1%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Las Vegas
558,880
Henderson
249,386
Reno
214,853
Rate
Rate Rank
1st highest in U.S.
State Rate
7.3%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$55,062
U.S.
$50,740
355
Nevada – Battleground State
The race in Nevada seems destined to be close. Thanks to exponential population growth, this
1029
land of desert, mountains, and blinking casino strips has become politically unpredictable.
1030
Nevada hasn't sided with a Democratic presidential candidate since 1996.
Nevada backed
1031
Republican Bush in the last two presidential elections.
The governor is Republican. And
McCain hails from a neighboring state. And yet, according to polls, he is at best tied and at worst
lagging Obama by 10 points. Nevada has five electoral votes.
Nevada has voted with the winning candidate in the last seven presidential elections and is a
bellwether for the West.
In many ways, Nevada is a magnified version of how the rest of the nation - and McCain's
candidacy - are suffering. Only a few years ago, the state was on a roll of high growth and low
taxes, fueled by construction and tourism dollars. But then last year, the dice changed: Nevada
began leading the nation in foreclosures, now hitting one out of every 82 homes.1032
Nevada has the highest house foreclosure rate in the U.S., the tourism industry is laying off
employees and the state unemployment is at a 23-year high.1033
Construction firms packed up. Gambling revenues have dropped. Businesses began layoffs, and
unemployment has jumped 49 percent since last year. The economic woes have hurt McCain’s
chances in the state.
"I wouldn't say it's over, but I think Obama has a little bit of advantage," said Greg Ferraro, a top
Republican adviser.
Things are clearly trending Democrats' way - Obama has 16 field offices, more than 100 staffers
and an unprecedented Democratic surge in voter registration, fed in February by caucuses that
drew 120,000 voters. Four years ago, only 9,000 showed up.1034
Nevada’s population base is in Clark County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by
139,977.
The Obama campaign has built perhaps the largest turnout operation in Nevada history. In the
past, Democrats tended to rely on organized labor to handle their grass-roots and get-out-thevote efforts. That worked well in Las Vegas and Clark County, where building trades and the
Culinary Union, representing tens of thousands of casino workers, enjoy considerable clout.
This time, the Obama campaign is only counting on labor to supplement its organizing efforts.1035
The Obama campaign has gone so far as to have thousands of Californians are trekking to
Nevada to try to swing the Silver State blue.1036
The race could be decided in Washoe County, a swing county that stretches from Reno up to the
Oregon border, home to an eclectic mix of independent-minded native Nevadans, Californians
seeking a cheaper retirement, and young families from across the country attracted by the once
flourishing construction and tourism industries. But the housing boom that sent vast new tracts of
one-story homes skittering up the sagebrush-covered hills has stopped short.1037
Reno and environs have been well ahead of the rest of the United States in seeing firsthand the
carnage of the nation's economic crisis. Sales of new homes in Washoe County fell 36.4 per cent
from August 2007 and foreclosures jumped 46 per cent in August alone, as gamblers who tried
their luck in the housing market crapped out.
Clark County, home of Las Vegas, is a Democratic stronghold and McCain will dominate the rural
1038
areas. That leaves Washoe to decide Nevada's five electoral votes.
356
Republicans often made up the difference by winning handily in Washoe County, which includes
Reno, and swamping the Democrats in Nevada's 15 other counties, known collectively as "the
1039
rurals." Bush carried some of those counties by 3 to 1 or better in 2000 and 2004.
Washoe County has always been the Republican firewall, the place where a stubborn libertarian
streak which sneers at big government, its big taxes and its threats to their guns, has kept the
Democratic hordes at bay. Republicans have won here in eight of the past 10 presidential
1040
elections in Nevada and it has always been Washoe that propelled them to victory.
However, the fact that Washoe County has in 2008, for the first time in 30 years, logged more
Democrats than Republicans, is a tectonic shift in voter sentiment in the northern part of
1041
Nevada.
Fast-growing "exurbs" like Henderson, commuter towns outside the traditional suburban belts
surrounding cities, have emerged as a crucial battleground in the 2008 election as Democrats
consolidate their hold on older, inner-ring suburbs, many of which once voted reliably Republican.
In Nevada, places like Henderson hold the balance between heavily Democratic Las Vegas and
conservative rural areas. Both of the major party vice presidential candidates, Palin and Biden,
have made stops here.
"If those areas break Democratic, that will be determinant," said Eric Herzik, a political science
professor at the University of Nevada in Reno.
Henderson's population has grown by more than one-third since the turn of the century, as new
residents have flocked to Las Vegas' booming job and real estate market. But as of last month,
3.5 percent of all housing units in the Las Vegas metro area were in foreclosure -- the secondhighest rate in the country.1042
Part of the reason Nevada is tilting toward Obama is the changing demographics here, the influx
of Democrats from the border states of California and Oregon.1043
Obama has invested more campaign resources in Elko, population 16,700, and other rural
Nevada counties — Fernley, Douglas and Carson City — than any Democratic presidential
candidate in recent memory.
Obama spent some time in rural Nevada in the hope that he could make inroads in the
Republican strongholds and prevent a landslide for McCain that could erase Obama’s expected
electoral advantage in heavily Democratic Clark County. It’s a strategy that Republicans, and
even some Democratic supporters of Obama, question, saying he should have put all his focus
on Washoe County when he visited Northern Nevada.
Elko has resisted some of the Democratic advances seen elsewhere in the state. Although
Democrats have made massive gains in statewide voter registration, in Elko they gained only 46
voters since the 2004 presidential election. (President Bush got 78 percent of the vote in Elko in
2004 and 2000.)
If McCain wins Nevada, it will be because the rural counties provide a backstop.1044
Nevada is one of the early-voting states that Obama has made a priority.1045
Two-thirds of the way through Nevada's early-voting cycle, Nevada Democrats were maintaining
a strong advantage over Republicans in the state's population centers of Las Vegas and Reno.
In the Las Vegas area, in Clark County, 211,178 voters cast ballots through Oct. 26. That's just
over a quarter of all active voters in the county, Nevada's largest. Democrats accounted for 53
percent of the ballots while Republicans had 31 percent.
357
In the Reno area, in Washoe County, 51,209 people voted through Oct. 26, or nearly a quarter of
all active voters in that county. Of the total, 51 percent were Democrats and 33 percent were
Republicans.
Party membership of the early voters bodes well for Obama.
The strong Democratic margin in Washoe's early voting is likely to shrink this week as more GOP
voters make it to the polls. That's because Democrats have only a slight registration advantage -their first in 30 years -- in the county, which has 231,212 active voters.
The Democrats' early-vote margin also may shrink in Clark County, but it won't be by much.
There, the Democrats account for nearly half of the 815,077 registered active voters. Republicans
have just under a third of such voters.
Besides the early voting, election officials are dealing with a heavy flow of absentee ballots mostly
coming through the mail.
In Clark County, more than half of the nearly 60,000 absentee ballots requested by voters are
back, and those sent in by GOP voters outnumber those from Democrats by a 46-41 percent
margin.
Details on returned absentee ballots weren't available from Washoe County election officials.
However, Republicans have a big lead in requests for such ballots -- more than 11,000 compared
with nearly 7,000 for Democrats.
Nevada has more than 1.4 million registered voters, including 1.2 million who are considered
active -- and 87 percent of them live in Clark and Washoe counties. Statewide, there are 111,617
more Democrats than Republicans -- a major change from the 2004 elections when there slightly
more GOP voters than Democrats.
In Nevada, the heavy balloting in advance of Election Day makes it clear that well over half of the
voters will cast early or absentee ballots.1046
Hispanics make up nearly 25 percent of the state's population.1047 Latinos make up 11.4 percent
of registered voters in Nevada. Latino voters could provide the margin of victory for Obama in
Nevada.
In 2004, 60 percent of Latinos in Nevada voted for Kerry and 39 percent for Bush. This time, polls
show a seven-to-10-point increase for Obama.1048
Several Spanish-language media outlets in Nevada are endorsing Obama.1049
The National Rifle Association is pouring money and manpower into Nevada in hopes of
defeating Obama.
In Southern Nevada, the NRA has organized 60 volunteers to promote early voting and absentee
balloting. Through last week, they had made 3,800 phone calls, visited 1,800 households and
dropped 11,500 pieces of campaign literature throughout the Las Vegas Valley.
The NRA chose Reno as one of four cities to announce its endorsement of McCain this month
and is running radio, TV and print ads in Nevada, in addition to an ambitious get out-the-vote
effort.1050
Gaming has bet the house on the presidential campaign of McCain. Through September,
individuals with ties to casinos have contributed more than $260,000 to McCain's campaign,
358
according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. Obama has received almost
$133,000 in contributions from the same group.
Liberal-leaning Progressive Accountability, however, puts McCain's gaming industry contributions
at $951,000, when fundraising efforts and contributions from casino lobbyists are included. The
Obama campaign prohibits contributions and fundraising by lobbyists.
McCain's largest gaming fundraiser has been MGM Mirage Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Terry Lanni, who has collected at least $500,000 for the campaign, according to
OpenSecrets.org, the Web site operated by the Center for Responsive Politics. Wynn Resorts
Chairman and CEO Steve Wynn has raised between $250,000 and $500,000 for McCain. Las
Vegas Sands Corp. Chairman and CEO Sheldon Adelson and company President Bill Weidner
have each raised between $100,000 and $250,000 for McCain.
Las Vegas advertising executive Sig Rogich, whose company Rogich Communications Group
has worked for casino operators, including Las Vegas Sands, has raised between $250,000 and
$500,000 for McCain, according to OpenSecrets.org.
McCain is a lifelong gambler. In a May 2005 article in the New Yorker, writer Connie Bruck
recounted stories of McCain playing craps for "14-hour stints" in Las Vegas from 10 a.m. until
midnight. Bruck wrote about how she traveled with McCain to New Orleans, and upon arriving at
the hotel, he immediately went across the street to gamble at Harrah's New Orleans, playing at a
$15 minimum bet table. "Craps is addictive," McCain was quoted as saying in the New Yorker
article.
In September, the New York Times recounted an early morning McCain gambling excursion in a
high-stakes room at the Foxwoods casino in Connecticut not long after he ended his 2000
presidential bid.1051
Obama opposes the Yucca Mountain project, the potential Nevada storage site for nuclear waste,
and has said he will withdraw the Energy Department license application. McCain supports the
project if it is safe and environmentally sound.1052
Nevada 3rd District
Jon Porter (R) Incumbent
Born: 05/16/1955, Ft. Dodge, IA
Home: Ft. Dodge, IA
Education: Attended Briar Cliff College
Religion: Catholic
Elected Office: Boulder City Council, 1983-93; NV Senate, 1994-2002
Professional Career: Public Official, Insurance Executive
Jon Porter was born in Fort Dodge, Iowa, and grew up in Humboldt, Iowa. He attended Briar Cliff
College (now Briar Cliff University) in Sioux City, and later moved to southern Nevada.
In 1982, Porter became an agent for Farmers Insurance Group. He served as the mayor of
Boulder City, a state legislator and also has been active in the Southern Nevada Water Authority.
Working in a Democratic-led House, Porter veered away from the Bush administration in 2006.
Porter was among the earliest Republicans to call on beleaguered Attorney General Alberto
Gonzales to resign, and joined dozens of other Republicans to support expansion of a popular
children's health care program, knowing it faced a Bush veto.
Porter is divorced and has two children.
1053
359
Dina Titus (D)
Born: 05/23/1950, Thomasville, GA
Home: Las Vegas
Education: BA Col. of William and Mary, 1970; MA Univ. of GA; PhD FL St. Univ., 1976
Religion: Greek Orthodox
Marital status: Married (Tom Wright)
Elected Office: NV Senate, 1988-present
Professional Career: Professor, Public Official
Dina Titus was born in Thomasville, Ga., and grew up in Tifton, Ga. She moved to Las Vegas,
where she currently lives, in 1977 to teach at the University of Nevada. Titus received a
bachelor's degree from the College of William and Mary in 1970, a master's degree from the
University of Georgia in 1973 and a doctorate from the University of Florida in 1976.
Titus teaches political science at the UNLV. She is an expert on atomic testing at the Nevada
Test Site and the author of the books "Bombs in the Backyard: Atomic testing in American
Politics" and "Battle Born: Federal-State Relations in Nevada During the 20th Century."
She has been a state senator since 1988, and state senate minority leader since 1993. Titus won
the Democratic nomination for governor in 2006, and lost the race to U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons.
Titus is married to Tom Wright, a professor of Latin American studies at UNLV.1054
Race Notes:
Porter is once again highly vulnerable in his suburban Las Vegas seat, and state Sen. Dina Titus
brings a political base that was lacking for Porter’s challenger last time, who nonetheless came
within 4,000 votes. Titus served as state Senate Democratic leader for the past 15 years and has
statewide name recognition from the 2006 gubernatorial election, which she lost relatively
narrowly to Republican Jim Gibbons. Porter maintains the cash-on-hand advantage in the race,
with $836,000 through Sept. 30 vs. $246,000 for Titus, but the Democratic Congressional
Campaign Committee has made the suburban Las Vegas district a top target in 2008 and is
pumping money into the race.1055
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Jon Porter (R)
102,232
48%
$3,036,311
Tessa Hafen (D)
98,261
47%
$1,501,465
Other
10,486
5%
2006 primary
Jon Porter (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Jon Porter (R)
162,240
54%
Tom Gallagher (D)
120,365
40%
15,313
5%
Other
$2,653,136
2002 (56%)
360
Utah
Electoral Votes:
5
First Polls Open:
9:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
663,742
71.54%
Kerry
241,199
26.00%
Other
22,903
2.46%
422,543
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
71.54%
26.00%
2000
66.83%
26.34%
1996
54.37%
33.30%
1992
43.36%
24.65%
1988
66.22%
32.05%
1984
74.50%
24.68%
1980
72.77%
20.57%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Obama
56.7%
Clinton
39.1%
Edwards
2.9%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Romney
89.5%
McCain
5.4%
Paul
3.0%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Jon Huntsman (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
1
2
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
8
21
0
State House
20
55
0
10:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
1,515,242
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
1,803,536
VEP Turnout 2004
62.05%
2,645,330
Total population
34
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
233,982
8.8%
65 years and over
2,177,306
82.3%
Non-Hispanic White
31,727
1.2%
Black
52,481
2.0%
Asian
306,514
11.6%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Salt Lake City
180,651
West Valley City
122,374
Provo
117,592
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
3.5%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$55,109
U.S.
$50,740
361
Utah – Governor Race
Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) Incumbent
Born: 03-26-1960, Palo Alto, CA
Home: Salt Lake City
Education: Attended U. of UT; U. of PA, B.A. 1987
Religion: Mormon
Marital Status: married (Mary Kaye)
Professional Career: Staff Asst., White House, 1982-83; Exec., Huntsman Corp., 1983-89; Dep.
Asst. Sec. of Commerce, Trade Dev. Bureau, 1989-90; Dep. Asst. Sec. of Commerce for E. Asia
& the Pacific, 1990-91; Amb. to Singapore, 1992-93; Pres., Huntsman Cancer Foundation, 19952001; U.S. trade amb., 2001-03; Chairman and CEO, Huntsman Family Holdings Co., 2003-04.
Jon Huntsman Jr. - aide to President Reagan, diplomat to Singapore, trade official under
President Bush and heir to his family's chemical fortune - added a new title in 2004: governor of
1056
Utah.
He is the son of billionaire philanthropist and industrialist Jon Huntsman, the wealthiest man in
Utah (his company invented McDonald’s Big Mac clamshell packaging).
He dropped out of high school to play keyboards in rock and roll bands.
Huntsman served a two-year Mormon mission to Taiwan, where he learned to speak fluent
Mandarin Chinese.
He also served as president of the Huntsman Cancer Foundation and as CEO of the Huntsman
Family Holdings Co., the umbrella organization that holds the assets of the multibillion-dollar
Huntsman chemical business.1057
His approval ratings have remained high throughout his first four years by increasing education
spending, vying to keep foreign nuclear waste out of the state and managing a state with a strong
economy that's outperformed the rest of the country in recent years.1058
Bob Springmeyer (D)
Born: Provo, UT
Home: Salt Lake City, UT
Marital Status: married (Gwen)
Professional Career: Bonneville Research – founder and owner, ?-present
Elected office: none
Bob Springmeyer is running his first-ever political campaign.
Springmeyer is the owner and founder of Bonneville Research, a Salt Lake City consulting firm
that frequently works with local governments on feasibility studies.
He and his wife have long been community activists in the Salt Lake City area, where they
spearheaded efforts to build the Ronald McDonald House of Utah.
He formed and served as the first president of the Utah Wildlife and Conservation Foundation.
Springmeyer's hobbies include cycling and racing a bobsled and skeleton.1059
On the day of his announcement, Springmeyer told the Salt Lake City Tribune that “Probably the
only thing crazier than sliding headfirst down a bobsled track at 70 miles an hour is running
1060
against Jon Huntsman.”
362
Race Notes:
1061
Republican incumbent Jon Huntsman Jr. is heavily favored to win.
Huntsman only recently started running TV commercials, despite buying a block of media time
that began nearly a month earlier. He'll end up spending only about one-fourth of the $3.5 million
he poured into his 2004 race.
Springmeyer said he's put 17,000 miles on his Prius hybrid in the past six months and will have
traveled to all but three of the state's 29 counties by Election Day, appearing everywhere from
college football games to senior centers in his trademark bow tie.
Springmeyer hasn't held press conferences and can't afford any TV, although he is advertising on
billboards and on the radio in the final days of the election.1062
Only a few dozen people gathered in the auditorium of the Salt Lake Main Library to hear a
debate between Huntsman and Bob Springmeyer. Many in attendance were members of
1063
Huntsman's staff.
Election Results
Candidate
2004 general
531,190
58%
Scott Matheson (D)
380,359
41%
8,411
1%
102,955
66%
52,048
34%
Michael Leavitt (R)
424,837
56%
Bill Orton (D)
321,979
42%
14,990
2%
Jon Huntsman (R)
Nolan Karras (R)
2000 general
Jon Huntsman (R)
Other
2004 primary
Total Votes
Other
363
364
California
Electoral Votes:
55
First Polls Open:
10:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
6,745,485
54.30%
Bush
5,509,826
44.36%
Other
166,541
1.34%
1,235,659
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
44.36%
54.30%
2000
41.65%
53.45%
1996
38.21%
51.10%
1992
32.61%
46.01%
1988
51.13%
47.56%
1984
57.51%
41.27%
1980
52.69%
35.91%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
Clinton
51.5%
Obama
43.2%
Edwards
3.8%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 05
McCain
42.2%
Romey
34.6%
Huckabee
11.6%
Party Breakdown
Arnold
Governor
Schwarzenegger (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
34
19
X
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
25
15
0
State House
48
32
0
11:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
7,101,442
Republican
5,227,489
Other
691,472
3,151,369
Total
16,171,772
As Of
9/5/2008
VEP 2008
22,585,561
VEP Turnout 2004
60.01%
36,553,215
Total population
1
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
4,003,593
11.0%
65 years and over
15,623,642 42.7%
Non-Hispanic White
2,450,444
6.7%
Black
4,544,182
12.4%
Asian
13,220,891 36.2%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Los Angeles
3,834,340
San Diego
1,266,731
San Jose
939,899
Rate
Rate Rank
3rd highest in U.S.
State Rate
7.7%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$59,948
U.S.
$50,740
365
Prop 8. Marriage. Defines marriage as solely between one man and one woman.
"Changes California Constitution to eliminate the right of samesex couples to marry. Provides that
only marriage between a man and a woman is
valid or recognized in California. Fiscal Impact: Over next few years, potential revenue loss,
mainly sales taxes, totaling in the several tens of millions of dollars, to state and local
governments. In the long run, likely little fiscal impact on state and local governments. (Yes, No)"
Prop 4. Abortion parental notification. Requires parental notification and waiting period
before minor can have abortion.
Changes California Constitution, prohibiting abortion for unemancipated minor until 48 hours after
physician notifies minor's parent, legal guardian, or, in limited cases, substitute adult relative.
Provides an exception for medical emergency or parental waiver. Fiscal Impact: Potential
unknown net state costs of several million dollars annually for health and social services
programs, court administration, and state health agency administration combined. (Yes, No)
California 11th District
Jerry McNerney (D) Incumbent
Born: 06/18/1951, Albuquerque, NM
Home: Pleasanton
Education: BS University of New Mexico, 1973; PhD University of New Mexico, 1981
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Mary)
Professional Career: Wind Engineer, Entrepreneur
Jerry McNerney was born in Albuquerque, N.M., and lives in Pleasanton. Before winning election
to Congress in 2006 in an upset, he was a wind engineer heading a company that manufactured
wind turbines for energy.
He also has consulted on energy for PG&E and other companies.
McNerney attended a military academy in Kansas for high school. He earned a doctorate in math
and engineering from the University of New Mexico.
McNerney was a long-shot candidate who wasn't the Democratic Party's first choice in 2006
when he stunned the political establishment by unseating powerful seven-term Republican
Richard Pombo in a GOP-friendly district.
McNerney and his wife, Mary, have three children.1064
Dean Andal (R)
Born: 10/23/1959, Salem, OR
Home: Stockton
Education: BA University of California - San Diego, 1983
Religion: Catholic
Marital status: Married (Kari)
Elected Office: CA Assembly 1991-94; CA Board of Equalization, 1994-2002
366
Andal was born in Salem, Ore., and lives in Stockton. Andal, who was the eldest of five siblings,
was raised in a traditional Catholic household. He came to Stockton as a teenager when his
father got a job as San Joaquin County director of parks. He received a bachelor's degree from
the University of California in 1983.
Andal has a long history serving in elected office in California, including in the state Assembly and
on the Board of Equalization.
In 2002 Andal ran unsuccessfully for the GOP nomination for state controller but lost to Tom
McClintock, who is now the Republican nominee for Congress in California's 4th Congressional
District.
From 2002-2004 he worked for accounting firm KPMG in Sacramento.
He currently is a board member of Service 1st Bancorp in Stockton and also works for Central
Valley land developer Gerry Kamilos.
He and his wife, Kari, have one child.
1065
Race Notes:
After ousting a long-term GOP incumbent in this traditionally conservative San Joaquin Valley
seat, McNerney has the challenge of persuading his constituents to keep him. Democrats say
McNerney has met expectations, and they note that he now has the advantage of incumbency as
he faces former Republican state Rep. Dean Andal. The district leans Republican, but exurban
growth from the San Francisco area has contributed to a growing Democratic population.1066
McNerney unseated Rep. Richard Pombo (R) in 2006 by six points.This year's GOP nominee,
Andal, doesn't have Pombo's negatives, which has given Republicans hopes they can regain the
seat.1067
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
2006 primary
Jerry McNerney (D)
109,868
53%
$2,422,962
Richard Pombo (R)
96,396
47%
$4,629,983
Jerry McNerney (D)
23,598
53%
Steve Filson (D)
12,744
28%
8,390
19%
Richard Pombo (R)
163,582
61%
$1,017,709
Jerry McNerney (D)
103,587
39%
$154,701
Steve Thomas (D)
2004 general
Total Votes
367
368
Hawaii
Electoral Votes:
4
First Polls Open:
12:00 PM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
231,708
54.01%
Bush
194,191
45.26%
Other
3,114
0.73%
37,517
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
45.26%
54.01%
2000
37.46%
55.79%
1996
31.64%
56.93%
1992
36.70%
48.09%
1988
44.75%
54.27%
1984
55.10%
43.82%
1980
42.90%
44.80%
2008 Caucus Results
Democrats
Caucus Date:
Feb. 19
Obama
75.7%
Clinton
23.6%
Edwards
0.1%
Republicans
Primary Date:
May 18th
McCain won the Hawaii Convention
Party Breakdown
Governor
Linda Lingle (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
2
0
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
21
4
0
State House
44
7
0
11:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
667,647
As Of
8/21/2008
VEP 2008
915,859
VEP Turnout 2004
48.61%
1,283,388
Total population
42
of
51(states
+ DC)
State Pop. Rank
183,994
14.3%
65 years and over
316,566
24.7%
Non-Hispanic White
114,415
8.9%
Native Hawaiian
511,919
39.9%
Asian
105,172
8.2%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Honolulu
375,571
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
4.5%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$63,746
U.S.
$50,740
369
370
Idaho
Electoral Votes:
4
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
10:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
11:00 PM ET
Counties in PTZ close at 11:00PM ET. The rest of the state closes at 10:00PM ET, but state law
requires results be withheld until all polls in state are closed at 11:00PM ET.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
409,235
68.38%
Kerry
181,098
30.26%
Other
8,114
1.36%
228,137
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
68.38%
30.26%
2000
67.17%
27.64%
1996
52.18%
33.65%
1992
42.03%
28.42%
1988
62.08%
36.01%
1984
72.36%
26.39%
1980
66.46%
25.19%
Democrats
Primary Date:
May. 27
Obama
56.0%
Clinton
37.7%
Republicans
Primary Date:
May. 27
McCain
69.7%
Paul
23.7%
Party Breakdown
Governor
C.L. Butch Otter (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
0
2
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
7
28
0
State House
19
51
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
733,784
As Of
9/30/2008
VEP 2008
1,070,549
VEP Turnout 2004
64.69%
1,499,402
Total population
State Pop. Rank
174,946
11.7%
65 years and over
1,283,377
85.6%
Non-Hispanic White
13,239
0.9%
Black
17,541
1.2%
Asian
147,426
9.8%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Boise
Nampa
Meridian
202,832
79,249
64,642
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
5.0%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$46,253
U.S.
$50,740
371
IDAHO – U.S. Senate Race
Lt. Gov. James Risch (R)
Born: March 5, 1943; Milwaukee, WI
Residence: Boise, Idaho
Marital Status: Married (Vicki)
Religion: Catholic
Education: BS Univ. of ID, 1965; JD Univ. of ID, 1968
Prev. Political Exp.: ID Senate, 1975-88, 1994-2002; ID Lt. Governor, 2003-06, 2007-present; ID
Governor, 2006
Prev. Occupation: Attorney, Rancher
James "Jim" E. Risch was born in Milwaukee, Wis., and currently lives in Boise. He received his
bachelor's degree in forestry from the University of Idaho in 1965, then his law degree from the
1068
same school in 1968.
Risch was elected in 1970 as Ada County prosecuting attorney.
Risch spent more than 20 years in the Idaho Senate, though he lost his 1988 race to a Democrat,
succumbed again in the 1994 GOP primary, and only returned in 1995 after being appointed by
Gov. Phil Batt.1069
Risch is serving his third term as lieutenant governor. 1070
During his first term as lieutenant governor, Risch was elevated to the governor’s office after
then-Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R) left the job to serve in President Bush’s Cabinet. Risch’s record
while serving in the top job did nothing to cause himself any major political problems in the
Senate race.
Risch chose to run for re-election as lieutenant governor in 2006, even though he was officially
the governor in the midst of that re-election.1071
Risch used his seven months in office to effectively bar construction of coal-fired power plants in
the state and rewrite National Forest roadless rules for Idaho, an effort that's won mixed reviews
from environmentalists.
Meanwhile, he irked many Democrats by using the state plane to fly frequently around the state,
they said he was campaigning, and pushing for legislation that reduced property taxes but raised
the sales tax by a penny to pay for lost revenue.
Risch and his wife, Vicki, have three sons. Vicki Risch has managed many of her husband's
campaigns and serves as one of his chief strategists.1072
Former Rep. Larry Larocco (D)
Born: August 15, 1946; Van Nuys, CA
Residence: Boise, Idaho
Marital Status: Married (Chris)
Education: BA University of Portland, 1967; MS Boston University, 1969
Prev. Political Exp.: US House, 1990-94
Military: USA, 1969-72
Prev. Occupation: Banker
Larry LaRocco was born in Van Nuys, Calif., near Los Angeles, on Aug. 15, 1946. He received
his bachelor's degree from the University of Portland in 1967. He later received his master's
degree from Boston University in 1969.
372
He served in the U.S. Army until 1972 and later worked for six years as a staffer for the late U.S.
1073
Sen. Frank Church, D-Idaho.
LaRocco lost a 1982 challenge for the Idaho's 1st District U.S. House of Representatives seat to
1074
incumbent Larry Craig.
LaRocco served two terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, from 1990 to 1994. He was
1075
ousted in 1994 by Helen Chenoweth.
LaRocco was the last Idaho Democrat to hold a seat in
Congress.
He has lost two races to Jim Risch, one in 1986 for the state Legislature, and the 2006 contest for
1076
lieutenant governor.
LaRocco is married to Chris LaRocco; they have two children.
1077
Race Notes:
On Oct. 4, 2007, Sen. Craig announced that he would retire at end of current term. Republicans
are expected to easily hold on to this seat.
Risch could be headed toward another 20-point victory over former LaRocco. LaRocco lost to
Risch by nearly 20 points in the 2006 race for lieutenant governor, and he shows no signs that he
can beat Risch in this contest.
LaRocco should be credited for running a spirited race. He has campaigned up and down the
state for more than 18 months, attempting to build support in the Republican bastion that is Idaho
by working jobs in different industries for a day or two at a time.
But LaRocco’s got three problems: He’s a Democrat, he’s a liberal and he’s extremely
underfunded compared to Risch. Meanwhile, Risch — though not universally loved — is fairly
well-liked and very well-known.1078
Risch announced his campaign Oct. 9, 2007 surrounded by members of the Republican
establishment, including U.S. Sen. Mike Crapo, Gov. C.L. "Butch" Otter and state GOP Chairman
Kirk Sullivan.
It was a sign the state's dominant party wanted one of its mainstays to replace Craig, under
attack for his arrest in a Minnesota airport bathroom gay sex sting.1079
The scandal-scarred Craig plans to stay in the Senate until his term ends at the beginning of
2009, to the dismay of Republican Senate leaders, despite the fallout from his summer 2007
arrest in a Minneapolis airport men’s room and his subsequent decision to plead guilty to a
disorderly conduct charge.
At least, from the GOP’s perspective, Craig decided to forgo a bid for re-election.1080
Risch has emphasized his experience as a state lawmaker and two-term lieutenant governor and
his seven-month stint as Idaho governor.
Risch has said he's not ready to commit to supporting another economic stimulus package now
being discussed as a way to revive the economy, saying he's concerned about the federal
spending already approved to prop up the financial markets.
LaRocco said he supports an economic shot in the arm, providing it's based on funding
infrastructure projects designed to help middle class workers.
Risch has touted the tax cut in campaign ads, while LaRocco says it's nothing more than shifting
1081
the tax burden.
373
Analysis by
Idaho
Race Rating
Solid R
Safe Republican
Safe Republican
Currently Safe
Election Results
Candidate
2002
general
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
Larry Craig (R)
266,215
65%
$3,045,521
Alan Blinken (D)
132,975
33%
$2,170,928
9,354
2%
Other
2002
primary
Larry Craig (R)
Unopposed
1996
general
Larry Craig (R)
283,532
57%
$2,992,451
Walt Minnick (D)
198,422
40%
$2,140,878
15,279
3%
Other
Prior winning
percentages:
1990 (61%); 1988 House (66%); 1986
House (65%); 1984 House (69%); 1982
House (54%); 1980 House (54%)
374
Oregon
Electoral Votes:
7
Likely Dem (Cook Rating)
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
9:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
11:00 PM ET
Most of the state is in PTZ and closes at 11:00PM ET. Malheur county is mostly in the MTZ and
polls close at 10:00PM ET, but no results are released until polls in the PTZ close at 11:00PM ET.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
943,163
51.35%
Bush
866,831
47.19%
Other
26,788
1.46%
76,332
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
47.19%
51.35%
2000
46.52%
46.96%
1996
39.06%
47.15%
1992
32.53%
42.48%
1988
46.61%
51.28%
1984
55.91%
43.74%
1980
48.33%
38.67%
Democrats
Primary Date:
May. 20
Obama
59.1%
Clinton
40.9%
Republicans
Primary Date:
May. 20
McCain
84.8%
Paul
15.2%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Ted Kulongoski (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
1
1
0
U.S. House
4
1
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
18
11
1
State House
31
29
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
2,097,528
As Of
10/3/2008
VEP 2008
2,774,652
VEP Turnout 2004
70.50%
3,747,455
Total population
State Pop. Rank
488,936
13.0%
65 years and over
3,015,622
80.5%
Non-Hispanic White
73,661
2.0%
Black
137,009
3.7%
Asian
396,140
10.6%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Portland
Salem
Eugene
550,396
151,913
149,004
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
6.4%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$48,730
U.S.
$50,740
375
OREGON – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Gordon H. Smith (R) Incumbent
Born: May 25, 1952, Pendleton, Ore.
Home: Pendleton. Ore. and Bethesda, Md.
Education: B.A. Brigham Young U., B.A. 1976, Southwestern U., J.D. 1979
Religion: Mormon
Elected Office: Oregon Senate, 1992-96, Senate president 1994-96; U.S. Senate, 1997 to
present.
Professional Career: Law clerk, New Mexico Supreme Court, 1979-80; attorney, 1980-81;
president, Smith Frozen Foods, Weston, Ore., 1980-96.
Sen. Smith is seeking a third term.
Gordon Harold Smith was born in the Eastern Oregon community of Pendleton, where he still
lives. He received a bachelor's degree from Brigham Young University in 1976 and a law degree
from Southwestern University College of Law in Los Angeles in 1979.
His father was assistant agriculture secretary under President Eisenhower; his mother hails from
the politically powerful Udall family. Smith is a cousin to Democratic U.S. Reps. Mark Udall of
Colorado and Tom Udall of New Mexico.
After working as a law clerk and attorney, Smith was president and CEO of Smith Frozen Foods
in Weston, Ore., from 1980-96. The company is one of the largest private label packers of frozen
vegetables in the United States.
Smith was elected to the Oregon Senate in 1992, and served as Senate president from 1994 to
1996.
He was defeated in a bitter January 1996 race to complete an unfinished term of Sen. Bob
Packwood.
He hadn’t given up on the Senate; Smith has the distinction of being the first man to run for two
U.S. Senate seats in the same year.
Smith was elected to the Senate in November 1996, replacing the retiring Sen. Mark Hatfield, ROre. He was re-elected in 2002.
A Mormon bishop, he opposes homosexuality but in recent years has championed gay rights.
He personally opposes Oregon's law that allows terminally ill patients to request a lethal
prescription from doctors, but he refused to join the GOP effort to override the state law with a
federal measure.
In December 2006 he stood on the Senate floor and denounced the Iraq war. Smith, who voted to
authorize the war in 2002, called the U.S. war effort "absurd" and said it might even be "criminal."
He and his wife, Sharon, have two adopted children. Another son, 21-year-old Garrett Smith,
committed suicide in 2003.
Smith later achieved passage of the Garrett Lee Smith Memorial Act, which boosts suicide
prevention programs. The law was named after his late son.1082
376
State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D)
Born: October 24, 1956, Myrtle Creek, Ore.
Home: Portland, Ore.
Education: B.A. in international relations, Stanford University; master's in public policy, Princeton
University
Religion: Lutheran
Marital status: Married (Mary Sorteberg)
Elected Office: Oregon House speaker, 2007-present; House minority leader, 2003-07; first
elected to House, 1998
Professional Career: President, Oregon World Affairs Council, 1996-2003; executive director,
Portland Habitat for Humanity, 1991-94; national security analyst, Pentagon and Congressional
Budget Office, 1982-88.
Jeff Merkley was born in Myrtle Creek, Ore., and currently resides in Portland, Ore.
The son of a sawmill worker, Merkley was the first in his family to go to college. He received his
bachelor's degree from Stanford University and his master's degree from Princeton University.
His background includes stints as a national security analyst at the Pentagon and time spent
leading the World Affairs Council, a Portland-based international affairs group. He also worked as
the director of Habitat for Humanity in Portland.1083
First elected to the Oregon House in 1999, Merkley, as House minority leader in 2006, was
instrumental in Democrats gaining majority control of the House in the 2007 legislative session.
Elected Oregon House speaker in 2007, Merkley presided over a legislative session that
endorsed civil unions for same-sex couples; provided bigger tax breaks for renewable energy
producers and a created a state rainy day fund.1084
Merkley was recruited to run for the U.S. Senate by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee after several more widely known Democrats, including Reps. Peter DeFazio and Earl
Blumenauer, decided not to run for the seat.
He and his wife, Mary, have two school-age children.1085
David Brownlow (Constitution Party)
Born: 03/25/1957; Rochester, NY
Residence: Damascus
Education: BS Clarkson University, 1979
Religion: Christian
Marital Status: Married (Suzanne)
Prev. Occupation: Industrial Control System Design
Race Notes:
Despite Smith’s attempts to ally himself with prominent Democrats – including Obama – Oregon’s
increasing Democratic trend has put state House Speaker Merkley ahead of the two-term
incumbent in the polls.
With his centrist views and voting record, Smith has tried to distance himself from the Bush
Administration, which is very unpopular in the state.1086 Smith broke with Bush on the Iraq War
and voted against the president’s wishes more than any other GOP senator last year.1087
However, according to Congressional Quarterly’s vote studies, during Bush’s entire tenure, Smith
voted with the president (on votes for which Bush took a clear position) 80 percent of the time.1088
377
In a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan, Smith
has stressed his moderate record and has raised eyebrows -- and engendered criticism -- for
running ads highlighting his agreement with both Obama and the 2004 Democratic presidential
candidate, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, on some issues.1089
The bipartisan approach appears to have hit a nerve with the Merkley campaign, which, in midOctober, staged a press conference to reiterate that he had the support of Wyden and Obama
1090
among other top Democrats. Smith doesn't show any signs of abandoning his bipartisan pitch.
Smith is a popular and formidable figure in Oregon who has preached bipartisanship for much of
his career. But the Republican brand is so low in the state right now that the Senator is in serious
1091
trouble.
The combination of the Wall Street crisis, a weakening economy, and an unpopular President at
the helm of a damaged Republican Party has exacted their toll to varying degrees. In Smith’s
case, that toll appears to be heavier than most.1092
After a very spirited and surprisingly close primary, Democratic leaders got the nominee they
wanted in Merkley, an earnest policy wonk who has an appealing rags-to-riches story to tell.
This race is drawing plenty of spending from the political parties and outside groups.1093 Both
campaigns have gone negative in an expensive race each party rates as one of their top
priorities.1094
Both campaigns have been on the air since July, along with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and more recently, Freedom’s Watch,
a 527 group that is supporting Republicans.
For the week of September 29, there were 8,000 gross rating points in advertising aired in the
Senate race, but only 2,000 of those points were ads sponsored by the two campaigns. The
remaining 6,000 points came from the two Senate campaign committees and other outside
groups.
Republican strategists say that Oregon has become more Democratic over the past several
years. Democrats now enjoy an 11-point advantage in voter registration, accounting for 43
percent of registered voters. Republicans make of 32 percent of the vote. This translates into a
216,000-vote advantage for Democrats. As one strategist put it, the state is now bluer than
neighboring Washington. They attribute the change to the competitive Democratic presidential
primary that brought out a record number of voters and to heightened enthusiasm among
Democrats for their nominee.1095
Analysis:
This contest has turned into an exceptionally close one. Senator Gordon Smith (R) has managed
to forge a successful political career in an unfriendly, Democratic environment. But he must
always be careful to project a moderate image in order to win the swing independents that, when
added to the GOP base, can produce victory in November.
As usual, the Democratic nominee for President will be the favorite to carry Oregon, creating a
headwind for Smith. Obama is actually faring much better than Al Gore and John Kerry in this
Pacific Coast state.
Smith's Democratic opponent, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley, who defeated attorney Steve
Novick in a competitive May primary, is aggressively tying Smith to George W. Bush, whose
popularity in Oregon is very low. At first we gave the edge to the incumbent, but this has turned
1096
into a nip-and-tuck battle.
378
Analysis by
Pollster
Dates
Riley
Research
10/1020/08
Rasmussen 10/14/08
Oregon
Race Rating
Toss Up
New Leans Democratic
No Clear Favorite
Lean Takeover
Recent Poll Results
N/Pop Smith Merkley Brownlow Frohnmayer Other Undecided Margin
499
LV
35
36
4
-
2
23
+1D
500
LV
47
47
-
-
4
2
0
SurveyUSA
10/1112/08
584
LV
41
46
7
-
-
6
+5D
SurveyUSA
9/2223/08
708
LV
42
44
8
-
-
6
+2D
Rasmussen
9/15/08
700
LV
46
45
-
-
2
7
+1R
9/1114/08
500
RV
37
36
4
-
-
23
+1R
Portland
Tribune
Election Results
Candidate
2002 general
Gordon Smith (R)
712,287
56%
$5,651,098
Bill Bradbury (D)
501,898
40%
$2,104,194
53,036
4%
Other
2002 primary Gordon Smith (R)
1996 general
Total Votes
Unopposed
Gordon Smith (R)
677,336
50%
$3,527,252
Tom Bruggere (D)
624,370
46%
$3,301,736
58,524
4%
Other
379
380
Washington
Electoral Votes:
11
First Polls Open:
10:00 AM ET
Poll Hours
Polls Close:
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Kerry
1,510,201
52.82%
Bush
1,304,894
45.64%
Other
43,989
1.54%
205,307
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
45.64%
52.82%
2000
44.58%
50.16%
1996
37.30%
49.84%
1992
31.96%
43.40%
1988
48.46%
50.05%
1984
55.82%
42.86%
1980
49.66%
37.32%
Democrats
Primary Date:
Feb. 19
Obama
51.2%
Clinton
45.7%
Edwards
1.7%
Republicans
Primary Date:
Feb. 19
McCain
49.5%
Huckabee
24.1%
Romney
16.3%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Christine Gregoire (D)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
2
0
0
U.S. House
6
3
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
32
17
0
State House
63
35
0
11:00 PM ET
Voter Registration
Democratic
N/A
Republican
N/A
Other
N/A
N/A
Total
3,911,630
As Of
9/24/2008
VEP 2008
4,682,421
VEP Turnout 2004
67.42%
6,468,424
Total population
13
of
51
(states + DC)
State Pop. Rank
757,852
11.7%
65 years and over
4,919,887
76.1%
Non-Hispanic White
234,754
3.6%
Black
430,862
6.7%
Asian
610,005
9.4%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Seattle
Spokane
Tacoma
594,210
200,975
196,520
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
5.8%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$55,591
U.S.
$50,740
381
Washington backed Democrats in the past five presidential elections.1097
I-1000. Death with Dignity. Allows suicide by terminally ill.
This measure would permit terminally ill, competent, adult Washington residents, who are
medically predicted to have six months or less to live, to request and self-administer lethal
medication prescribed by a physician. Should this measure be enacted into law? (Yes, No)
Washington – Governor Race
Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) Incumbent
Born: 03-24-1947, Adrian, MI
Home: Olympia
Education: U. of WA, B.A. 1969; Gonzaga U., J.D. 1977
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: married (Mike)
Elected Office: WA Atty. Gen., 1992-2004
Professional Career: Dep. Atty. Gen., 1982-88; Dir., WA Dept. of Ecology, 1988-92.
Gregoire was born in Adrian, Michigan, but grew up on a small farm in Auburn, Washington, just
south of Seattle.
Gregoire worked worked for Republican Senator Slade Gorton in his Spokane office.
In 1982, Republican Attorney General Ken Eikenberry hired her as a deputy attorney general in
Olympia.
In 1988, she was Democratic Governor Booth Gardner’s unexpected choice to head the
Department of Ecology.
In 1992, nationally a good year for women candidates but especially good in Washington where
Patty Murray was elected to the Senate and Maria Cantwell to the House, Gregoire ran as a
Democrat and won election as attorney general.
Gregoire served three terms as attorney general and won national headlines as the lead
negotiator in 1998 for the 46-state, $206 billion settlement with the tobacco industry.
One week after announcing her candidacy for governor in July 2003, Gregoire's doctors told her
she needed a mastectomy to remove an early form of breast cancer.
Gregoire was elected governor in 2004 in the closest race in Washington history.1098
She was elected by a mere 133 votes out of 2.9 million ballots cast, after three counts and a court
challenge.1099
Former State Sen. Dino Rossi (R)
Born: 10-15-1959, Seattle, WA
Home: Sammamish
Education: Seattle U., 1982 in Business Administration
Religion: Catholic
Marital Status: married (Terry)
Professional Career: co-founded Eastside Commercial Bank; vice president of Scott Real Estate
Investments; part owner – Everett Aqua Sox minor league baseball team
1100
Elected Office: State senate, 1997-2003
382
The grandson of an Italian immigrant coal miner, Rossi grew up in a family that endured financial
1101
hardship while living through the alcoholism of his mother.
He built a career in real estate before moving into public life as a state senator, serving a district
that bridges suburban and rural areas east of Seattle.
He served in the Senate for seven years, capped by a leading role in writing the 2003-2005 state
budget.
As Republican chairman of the Senate's budget committee, Rossi worked with Democratic Gov.
1102
Gary Locke and the Democrat-controlled House to trim spending in the face of a major deficit.
Rossi had been personally lobbied to run for governor by George W. Bush in 2003 when the state
1103
party was scrambling to come up with a viable candidate.
In 2006, Rossi declined to run for U.S. Senate against Democrat Maria Cantwell, who easily won
1104
re-election.
Race Notes:
Incumbent Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) is favored to win.1105
Gregoire faced a rematch against Republican Dino Rossi in her re-election bid.
Republican attacked Gregoire as a tax-and-spend liberal, and decried a projected budget deficit
of about $2.7 billion for 2009-2011.
Rossi highlighted the one-third increase in state spending under Gregoire, counting on a souring
economy and consumer inflation to turn voters' mood against the incumbent.
Gregoire said she's created 200,000 new jobs and exports have doubled to $66 billion.
The campaign was the costliest in state history, at an estimated $20 million.1106
While she once held extremely low approval ratings among state voters, Gregoire saw a rise in
the polls and an overall Democratic lean in the state benefitted her campaign.
A Republican governor had not been elected in the state since 1980.1107
Election Results
Candidate
2004 general
1,373,361
49%
Dino Rossi (R)
1,373,232
49%
63,465
2%
Christine Gregoire
(D)
504,018
66%
Ron Sims (D)
228,306
30%
35,742
5%
1,441,973
58%
980,060
40%
47,819
2%
Other
2000 general
Christine Gregoire
(D)
Other
2004 primary
Total Votes
Gary Locke (D)
John Eric Carlson
(R)
Other
383
384
th
Washington 8 District
Dave Reichert (R) Incumbent
Born: 08/29/1950, Detroit Lakes, MN
Home: Auburn
Education: AA Concordia Lutheran College, 1970
Religion: Lutheran
Marital status: Married (Julie)
Elected Office: King Co. Sheriff, 1997-04
Professional Career: Law Enforcement Official; Military: USAFR, 1971-76; USAF, 1976
Dave Reichert was born in Detroit Lakes, Minn., grew up in suburban Seattle and lives in
Bellevue. He graduated from Concordia Lutheran College in Portland, Ore.
Reichert started his law enforcement career in 1972 as a patrol officer in south King County. He
became a detective five years later and was named the lead investigator of what became the
Green River serial killings in 1982, soon after the first bodies were found.
The Green River case would define Reichert's career. The break came in 2001, early in his
second term as sheriff, when new DNA technology led to the arrest of a longtime suspect who
later pleaded guilty to killing 48 women.
Reichert was elected to the U.S. House in 2004, and was re-elected by a slim margin amid the
Democratic wave of 2006. He and his wife live in rural southeast King County and have three
children.
Reichert saw his influence diminished in his second term, with Republicans now in the minority.
He remained one of the top House targets for Democrats, who saw his narrow 2006 victory over
a political newcomer as evidence he could be defeated in 2008.1108
Darcy Burner (D)
Born: 11/12/1970, Anchorage, AK
Home: Carnation
Education: BA Harvard University, 1996
Religion: N/A
Marital status: Married (Mike)
Darcy Burner was born in Anchorage, Alaska and lives in Bellevue. She was adopted as a child
into an Air Force family that moved a few times during her childhood, settling in Nebraska in
1977.
In 1989, Burner began attending Harvard. She worked every semester and took some time off
from school to save money, graduating in 1996 with a degree in computer science and
economics.
She worked at software companies in the Boston and San Francisco areas before moving with
her husband to Washington state in 1998. Burner began working at Microsoft Corp. in 2000,
eventually becoming a project manager.
Burner left Microsoft in 2004 to work toward a career in politics. Despite a lack of political
experience, she ended up as the Democratic challenger against first-term Republican
Congressman Dave Reichert in 2006.
385
Burner turned heads in her first campaign for U.S. House in 2006 by raising large amounts of
campaign money. She also counted on an active group of Internet-based supporters to promote
her candidacy, thought to be a plus in the 8th District, which includes Microsoft's headquarters in
the Seattle suburb of Redmond.
Nevertheless, Burner was unable to catch a strong tide in favor of Democratic candidates that
year, and lost to Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash. by about 7,300 votes.
Burner and her husband, Mike, have one child.
1109
Race Notes:
Democrats argue that the national climate, combined with an influx of Democratic residents to this
suburban Seattle district, increases Burner’s odds in this year’s rematch. The district favored
John Kerry in 2004 by 3 percentage points, but Reichert has maintained support by crafting a
moderate image and remains well-known as the sheriff whose office caught Green River serial
killer Gary Ridgway. Burner, a former Microsoft Corp. manager, is repeating her strategy from her
previous campaign of arguing that Reichert is too conservative for the district; Reichert counters
1110
that Burner is out of step and inexperienced.
Election Results
Candidate
2006 general
Total Votes
Dave Reichert (R)
129,362
51%
$3,051,918
Darcy Burner (D)
122,021
49%
$3,048,902
2006 primary
Dave Reichert (R)
Unopposed
2004 general
Dave Reichert (R)
173,298
52%
$1,569,196
Dave Ross (D)
157,148
47%
$1,446,406
6,053
2%
Other
386
387
Alaska
Electoral Votes:
3
Poll Hours
First Polls Open:
11:00 AM ET
Polls Close:
1:00 AM ET
Polls close at 12:00AM ET in the Alaskan Time Zone. Precinct in Atka (with 51 registered voters),
will close at 1:00AM ET.
Candidate
Votes
% Vote
Bush
190,889
61.07
Kerry
111,025
35.52
Other
10,684
3.42
79,864
Year
Rep.
Dem.
2004
61.07%
35.52%
2000
58.62%
27.67%
1996
50.80%
33.27%
1992
39.46%
30.29%
1988
59.59%
36.27%
1984
66.65%
29.87%
1980
54.35%
26.41%
2008 Caucus Results
Democrats
Caucus Date:
Feb. 05
Obama
75.2%
Clinton
24.7%
Republicans
Caucus Date:
Feb. 05
Romney
44.8%
Huckabee
22.3%
Paul
17.1%
Party Breakdown
Governor
Sarah Palin (R)
U.S. Congress
Dem
Rep
Other
U.S. Senate
0
2
0
U.S. House
0
1
0
State Legislature
Dem
Rep
Other
State Senate
9
11
0
State House
17
23
0
Voter Registration
Democratic
75,601
Republican
124,743
Other
29,594
259,859
Total
489,797
As Of
10/1/2008
VEP 2008
541,199
VEP Turnout 2004
70.76%
683,478
Total population
State Pop. Rank
47,935
7.0%
65 years and over
451,713
66.1%
Non-Hispanic White
28,172
4.1%
Black
103,690
15.2%
Native American
39,985
5.9%
Hispanic (any race)
Biggest Cities
Anchorage
279,671
Fairbanks city
34,540
Juneau
30,690
Rate
Rate Rank
State Rate
6.8%
U.S. Rate
6.1%
State
$64,333
U.S.
$50,740
388
ALASKA – U.S. Senate Race
Sen. Ted Stevens (R) Incumbent
Born: November 18, 1923; Indianapolis, Ind.
Home: Girdwood
Education: U. of California, Los Angeles, B.A. 1947 (political science); Harvard U., LL.B. 1950
Marital status: Married (Catherine Stevens)
Elected Office: U.S. attorney, 1953-56; Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, 1962; Alaska
House, 1965-68 (majority leader and Speaker pro tempore, 1967-68); sought Republican
nomination for U.S. Senate, 1968; U.S. Senate, 1968-present
Professional Career: Lawyer
Sen. Stevens, with 40 years in office, is the longest-serving GOP senator in history.
seeking his seventh full term.
1111
He’s
Ted Stevens was born in Indianapolis and resides in Girdwood. He received a bachelor's degree
from the University of California at Los Angeles in 1947 and a law degree from Harvard Law
School in 1950.
He served as a pilot in the Army Air Forces from 1943 to 1946. After completing law school, he
practiced law in Washington, D.C., from 1950 to 1952. In 1953, he was appointed U.S. attorney in
Fairbanks, Alaska, serving until 1956.
He returned to Washington in 1956 and worked in the Interior Department until 1960. He returned
to Alaska in 1961 and practiced law there.
He served in the Alaska House, 1965-1968.
After two unsuccessful tries for the job -- in the 1962 general election and the 1968 GOP primary
-- Stevens was appointed to the Senate in 1968 following the death of a Democratic incumbent
and won a short-term special election in 1970. He was re-elected to six consecutive terms.
Stevens remains popular with many Alaskans after more than three decades in the Senate. He's
known as much for his fiery temper as the billions in federal aid he brings back to the state.1112
Stevens was indicted in on July 29 on seven charges of lying on his financial disclosure forms.1113
A federal jury in Washington on Oct. 27 convicted Stevens on seven felony counts of lying on his
financial disclosure forms. Stevens vowed to keep fighting in court and for his political future.
“I am innocent,” Stevens said in a statement issued by his campaign. “I remain a candidate for
the United States Senate. I will come home on Wednesday and ask for your vote.”
Stevens was convicted of failing to report more than $250,000 worth of gifts from VECO, a now
defunct oil-services company, its former chief executive, Bill Allen, and others. The government
contended that Stevens engaged in a multiyear scheme to conceal the gifts, most of which came
in the form of improvements to Stevens’ Girdwood, Alaska, home.
Each of the seven counts carries a maximum sentence of five years, but the actual sentence will
be determined later, in part according to guidelines that push the maximum downward based on
numerous variables, including whether it is a first offense.1114
He and his wife, Catherine, have one child. Stevens had five children by his first wife, Ann, who
died in a plane crash in 1978.1115
389
Mark Begich (D)
Born: March 31, 1962, in Anchorage, AK
Home: East Anchorage, AK
Education: Graduate of Steller High School (1981)
Religion:
Marital status: Married (Deborah Bonito)
Elected Office: Mayor, Municipality of Anchorage (2003-present); Anchorage Assembly (19881998)
Professional Career: 25-year small business owner; University of Alaska Board of Regents (20012002); Alaska Commission of Post-Secondary Education (1995-2002), board member, chair
(1996-1998), Alaska Student Loan Corporation (1995-2002); chair (1996-2002).
Mark Begich, 46, is in his fifth year as mayor of Alaska's largest city.1116
Begich is the son of Alaska's third congressman, Nick Begich, who disappeared while flying in an
airplane over the Gulf of Alaska during his 1972 re-election bid.
Begich was first elected to the Anchorage Assembly at age 26.
He was elected three times by his colleagues as the city's second highest office, chairman.
In 2003, he beat an incumbent mayor and two-term former mayor to become Anchorage's first
Anchorage-born mayor.
Begich was re-elected three years later by one of the largest margins in city history.
As mayor, Begich focused on transforming Anchorage into a progressive, international city
capitalizing on its Pacific Rim location.1117
Begich has owned and operated several Anchorage businesses, upgrading commercial buildings
and renting affordable housing to nearly 50 Anchorage families.1118
Before 2003, he unsuccessfully ran for mayor twice, in 1994 and 2000.
He served on the Anchorage Assembly from 1988-1998.1119
Race Notes:
Stevens’ indictment in July failed to destroy his re-election campaign, but Alaskan political
observers agree that Monday’s guilty verdict has pushed voter loyalty to the edge and threatens
to end Stevens’ longtime career in the Senate.
Stevens was indicted in connection with the Veco Corp. Alaska oil services company corruption
investigation and the senator requested a speedy trial in the hopes of being exonerated before
Election Day.
But the outcome was not favorable for Stevens, the longest-serving Republican senator in history.
A federal jury, on Oct. 27, found Stevens guilty on seven felony counts of failing to report gifts on
his financial disclosure forms.
Stevens in a statement expressed his disappointment with the outcome, and restated his
innocence. “This verdict is the result of the unconscionable manner in which the Justice
Department lawyers conducted this trial. I ask that Alaskans and my Senate colleagues stand
with me as I pursue my rights. I remain a candidate for the United States Senate,” Stevens
stated.
390
Stevens trailed Begich in early polling, but rallied support in the wake of the indictment and,
recently, Stevens began to pull even with his challenger. An Ivan Moore Research poll released
Oct. 21 showed Stevens trailing Begich by just one percentage point: 45 percent to 46 percent.
Jerry McBeath, University of Alaska at Fairbanks political scientist told CQ Politics that he
believes Stevens “definitely would have won” if he had been found “not guilty.” “I would say the
conviction definitely tips the balance towards Begich,” McBeath said.1120
On Oct. 28, McCain became the first high-profile political figure to explicitly call Stevens to resign
as a result of his conviction. “It is clear that Senator Stevens has broken his trust with the people
and that he should now step down,” McCain said in a statement. “I hope that my colleagues in the
Senate will be spurred by these events to redouble their efforts to end this kind of corruption once
and for all.”
Stevens is continuing his campaign to retain his Senate seat, even as Republicans — many
locked in their own election battles — distance themselves from him..1121
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., whose own re-election prospects are not certain,
McConnell, told the Lexington Herald-Leader that Stevens should step aside, and that he should
do it before Election Day. “I think he should resign immediately,” McConnell said.1122
The verdict does not obligate Stevens to end his re-election bid or resign from the Senate. But his
colleagues can consider expelling him even if he beats back a challenge from Begich — an
outcome that now seems significantly less likely.1123
Begich is a strong candidate. Not only does he manage a city that comprises almost half of the
state’s population, he also enjoys relatively high approval ratings.1124
While Stevens has stood trial on corruption charges in Washington, Begich has had the trail to
himself.1125
Despite the indictment, Stevens easily won his party’s nomination Aug. 26 over six lesser-known
challengers in a primary open only to registered GOP voters.1126
Begich said he would not step down as mayor while running for U.S. Senate.1127
Begich has mostly refused to address the federal indictment against Ted Stevens, instead
focusing on issues in the campaign.1128
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has spent more than $1 million during the past
month in Stevens' home state on commercials that highlight his legal troubles.
And, in the week prior to the Nov. 4 election, the DSCC plans to air about 140 commercials on six
Anchorage area radio stations attacking Stevens and boosting Begich.1129
Begich said the most important issue in this election is “developing a comprehensive energy plan
that reduces energy costs in the short term and investing in renewable energy and energy
efficiency to reduce costs over the long term.”1130
In October, Stevens began running attack ad criticizing Begich for what the incumbent claims is
double speak on drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Stevens campaign says Begich tells voters one thing about his energy plan and Democratic
leaders outside the state another.
The Begich campaign says the Anchorage mayor's message hasn't changed. They say he has
1131
long supported opening ANWR to drilling.
391
Analysis:
Stevens' power and seniority cannot be overestimated, but if the election were held today, Begich
would defeat Stevens. In fact, a rout of Stevens was likely--until Hurricane Sarah was tapped by
John McCain to be his VP.
Should he be vindicated in court, Stevens might squeak to victory now that the McCain-Palin
1132
ticket is leading in a landslide.
Analysis by
Pollster
Alaska
Race Rating
Lean D
New Toss-up
Leans Democrat
Lean Takeover
Recent Poll Results
N/Pop Stevens Begich Bird Haase Other Undecided Margin
Dates
Ivan Moore
10/1719/08
500
LV
45
46
-
-
-
-
+1D
Rasmussen
10/6/08
500
LV
49
48
-
-
-
3
+1R
Ivan Moore
10/3-6/08
500
LV
45
49
-
-
-
-
+4D
Ivan Moore
9/2022/08
500
LV
46
48
-
-
-
-
+2D
Fairleigh
Dickinson
9/1721/08
601
LV
43
47
-
-
4
5
+4D
Rasmussen
9/9/08
500
LV
46
48
-
-
2
3
+2D
Election Results
Candidate
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
179,438
78%
$2,295,429
Frank Vondersaar
(D)
24,133
11%
$1,049
Jim Sykes (Green)
16,608
7%
9,369
4%
Ted Stevens (R)
64,315
89%
Mike Aubrey (R)
7,997
11%
1996 general Ted Stevens (R)
177,893
77%
Jed Whittaker
(Green)
29,037
13%
Theresa Obermeyer
(D)
23,977
10%
2002 general Ted Stevens (R)
Other
2002
primary
Prior winning
percentages:
$2,711,710
1990 (66%); 1984 (71%); 1978 (76%);
1972 (77%); 1970 (60%)
392
percentages:
1972 (77%); 1970 (60%)
Alaska At-Large
Don Young (R) Incumbent
Born: 06/09/1933, Meridian, CA
Home: Ft. Yukon
Education: BA Chico State College, 1958
Religion: Episcopal
Marital Status: Married (Lula)
Elected Office: Ft. Yukon City Council, 1960-64; Mayor of Ft. Yukon, 1964-66; AK House, 196670; AK Senate, 1970-73
Professional Career: Educator, Trapper
Rep. Don Young first entered public service in 1964 when he was elected Mayor of Fort
1133
Yukon.
In 1966, Alaskan voters elected Young to the State Legislature in Juneau where he served in the
State House from 1966 to 1970, and later in the State Senate from 1970 to 1973.1134
For 35 years Young has been Alaska’s only Representative to the United States House of
Representatives.1135
Young is today the 3rd ranking Republican member and the 7th ranking overall member of the
House of Representatives.1136
Young served as Chairman of the House Resources Committee from 1994 to 2000 and then as
the Chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee from 2000-2006.1137
Young won the 2008 GOP primary by only 304 votes against his opponent Alaska Lt. Governor
Sean Parnell.1138
Young's 2008 reelection prospects became clouded by a far-reaching FBI corruption probe in
Alaska.1139 Young has not been charged with wrongdoing in the FBI corruption probe in
Alaska.1140
Ethan Berkowitz (D)
Born: 02/04/1962, San Francisco, CA
Home: Anchorage
Education: AB Harvard Univ.; MPhil Cambridge Univ.; JD Univ. of CA,
Religion: N/A
Marital Status: Married (Mara Kimmel)
Elected Office: AK House, 1996-2006
Professional Career: Attorney, Businessman
After graduating from law school in 1990, Ethan Berkowitz moved to Anchorage and became a
law clerk on the Alaska State Court of Appeals.1141
From 1991 to 1993, Berkowitz worked as a state prosecutor in Anchorage and rural Alaska.1142
After spending the 1993-94 season in the Antarctic, Berkowitz opened his own law practice.1143
Beginning in 1996, Berkowitz served in the Alaska State Legislature for ten years.1144
After Berkowitz’s first term in office, he was chosen by his peers to lead the House Democrats, a
position he held for eight years.1145
393
In 1998, Berkowitz got together with a group of friends and founded Snow City Café.1146
In 2006, Berkowitz was the Alaska Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor.
1147
In 2007, Berkowitz established Alaskan Alternative Energy, a company that focuses on
1148
developing low-cost renewable energy in rural Alaskan communities.
Berkowitz easily claimed his party’s nomination by winning the Aug. 26 primary by 53 % to 38 %
1149
over Diane E. Benson.
Don Wright (Alaskan Independence)
Born: 11/24/1929, Nenana, AK
Home: Kenai
Marital status: Partner: Judith
Professional Career: Retired Pilot
The Race
Though Young has been a fixture in Alaska politics since the 1960s and the state’s sole
congressman since 1973, his extremely narrow primary win in August (over Lt. Gov. Sean
Parnell) gave Democrats evidence that his hold on the state was slipping quickly.
Young faces the taint of his connections to the VECO Corp. oil services company scandal and the
consequences of his brash disposition, which his opponents say has diminished his
effectiveness.
Democratic former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz brings a statewide profile to the race, owing to his
2006 run for lieutenant governor, and he leads in multiple independent polls.1150
Young’s primary challenger, Lt. Governor Sean Parnell, had the strong backing of the governor
(and later McCain running mate), Sarah Palin. Young beat Parnell by only 304 votes. Berkowitz
is hoping to take advantage of GOP dissension in November.1151
Alaskans tend to vote Republican, however unaffiliated and third-party supporters make up 60 %
of registered voters in Alaska.1152
394
Election Results
Candidate
2006
general
Total Votes
Percent
Expenditures
Don Young (R)
132,743
57%
$1,959,806
Diane Benson
(D)
93,879
40%
$197,339
8,023
3%
Other
2006
primary
Don Young (R)
Unopposed
2004
general
Don Young (R)
213,216
71%
Thomas Higgins
(D)
67,074
22%
Timothy Feller
(Green)
11,434
4%
8,272
3%
Other
$1,747,897
2002 (75%); 2000 (70%); 1998 (63%);
1996 (59%); 1994 (57%); 1992 (47%);
1990 (52%); 1988 (63%); 1986 (57%);
1984 (55%); 1982 (71%); 1980 (74%);
1978 (55%); 1976 (71%); 1974 (54%);
1973 (51%)
395
Recount Rules (in most competitive states)
Colorado
Mandatory:
Mandatory recount procedure? Yes
Margin required: LESS THAN OR = TO 0.5% OF
LEADER'S VOTE
Completion deadline: No later than 30th day after elec
Non-mandatory:
Non-mandatory recount permitted? Yes
Conditions: Losing candidate or candidate's party may
request
Recount request deadline: Within 20 days of Pri/24 days of
GE
Able to request only portion of state? No
New Hampshire
Mandatory:
Mandatory recount procedure? No
Margin required: n/a
Completion deadline: n/a
Non-mandatory:
Conditions: Any candidate may request
Recount request deadline: By Friday after election
Florida
New Mexico
Mandatory:
Margin required: Margin of 0.5% or less
Completion deadline: 5th day after Pri;9th day after GE
Mandatory:
Margin required: <.5% of total votes
Completion deadline: must file w/in 5 days of canvass
Non-mandatory:
Non-mandatory recount permitted? No
Conditions: n/a
Recount request deadline: n/a
Non-mandatory:
Conditions: Any losing candidate may request
Recount request deadline: Within 6 days after canvass
Able to request only portion of state? Yes
Indiana
North Carolina
Mandatory:
Mandatory:
Non-mandatory:
Recount request deadline: By noon 14 days after election
day
Non-mandatory:
Conditions: diff is .5/1% or less of total votes
Recount request deadline: Noon 2nd bus. day after cty
canvass
Iowa
Ohio
Mandatory:
Mandatory:
Margin required: 1/4 of 1% MARGIN
Completion deadline: Within 10 days of mandate
Non-mandatory:
Recount request deadline: 3 days after county canvass
Non-mandatory:
Recount request deadline: By 5 days after official results
396
Maine
Oregon
Mandatory:
Mandatory:
Margin required: Tie vote OR Diff not more than 1/5 of 1%
Completion deadline: Immediately after canvass
Non-mandatory:
Recount request deadline: Within 5 business days of
election
Non-mandatory:
Conditions: Any candidate or county may request
Recount request deadline: ED+5 days, Pres is canvass+ 5
days
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Mandatory:
Margin required: DIFFERENTIAL OF 2000 VOTES OR
LESS
Completion deadline: Set by board of state canvassers
Mandatory:
Margin required: 1/2 of 1% or less
Completion deadline: 3 weeks after election
Non-mandatory:
Conditions: Evidence of fraud or mistake
Recount request deadline: Within 48 hours after canvass
Non-mandatory:
Conditions: When 3 qualified electors allege error
Recount request deadline: 5 days after computation of
votes
Minnesota
Virginia
Mandatory:
Margin required: Margin of less than 0.5% of total vote
Mandatory:
Non-mandatory:
Recount request deadline: GE-Within 7 days of county
canvass
Non-mandatory:
Conditions: Loser may request if diff. is 1% or less
Recount request deadline: By cert+10 days; Pres: cert+3
days
Missouri
Washington
Mandatory:
Mandatory:
Margin required: Margin <1000 votes & .25% of total vote
Non-mandatory:
Conditions: Candidate defeated by <1% of votes cast
Recount request deadline: Within 7 days of certification
Non-mandatory:
Recount request deadline: Within 3 days of cert. of results
397
Montana
West Virginia
Mandatory:
Margin required: Tie Vote
Completion deadline: Must request 5 days post canvass
Mandatory:
Non-mandatory:
Conditions: if margin is <1/4-1/2 of 1%.
Recount request deadline: Within 5 days after canvass
Non-mandatory:
Recount request deadline: By 48 hrs after cty canvass
Recount Rules (in m
Nevada
Wisconsin
Mandatory:
Mandatory:
Non-mandatory:
Recount request deadline: 3 working days post canvass
(11/18)
ost competitive states)
Non-mandatory:
Recount request deadline: 3rd business day after co.
canvass
Endnotes
1
The Cook Political Report, “SENATE: The State of Play 15 Days Out, Democrats Poised to Gain 7 to 9
Seats,” October 21, 2008.
2
National Journal, “Schumer Won't Pick A Number,” 17 October 2008.
3
Roll Call, “It's Getting Bleaker for McCain, Worse for Hill Republicans,” 23 October 2008.
4
CQ WEEKLY – COVER STORY, “Election 2008: Muscling Up The Majorities,” Oct. 27, 2008.
5
CQ WEEKLY – COVER STORY, “Election 2008: Muscling Up the Majorities,” Oct. 27, 2008.
6
National Journal, “GOP's Horror Sequel Is Almost A Wrap,” Oct. 28, 2008.
7
National Journal, “Back-To-Back GOP Train Wrecks,” Oct. 18, 2008.
8
The Cook Political Report, “GOVERNORS: The State of Play 7 Days Out,” October 28, 2008.
9
BallotWatch, “ELECTION 2008 PREVIEW: A SURGE OF SOCIAL ISSUES,” Oct. 24, 2008.
10
Stateline.org, “Major issues on the ballot this November,” Updated Oct. 21, 2008.
11
The Early Voting Information Center (EVIC) at Reed College in Portland, Ore.; National Association of
Secretaries of State; AP.
12
NPR & NewsHour 2008 Election Map.
13
14
FOX News: Candidate Biography; accessed October 17, 2008.
15
Cook Political Report: Jim Martin (D) - April 2008.
16
17
The Atlanta Journal – Constitution, “U.S. SENATE RACE: Libertarian's remedy for federal debt: 'Cut
spending substantially,'” 22 October 2008.
18
19
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, “Runoff for Senate seat could make Georgia ‘center of the universe,’”
October 22, 2008.
20
AP: GOP Ga. senator in 'fight of his life'; October 13, 2008.
21
AP: GOP Ga. senator in 'fight of his life'; October 13, 2008.
22
CQ 2008 Election Guide.
23
24
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Chambliss, Martin: Brothers before they were rivals; Thursday, October
16, 2008.
25
National Journal Campaign Tracker: Georgia Senate; accessed October 17, 2008.
26
National Journal Campaign Tracker: Georgia Senate; accessed October 17, 2008.
27
Larry Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics “US Senate Update,” 16 October, 2008
398
28
30
CQ Weekly, “Election 2008: South: Democrats Set to Counter Any GOP Gains,” Oct. 27, 2008.
31
Associated Press Newswires, “Despite Obama campaign activity, Indiana Republicans still see McCain
winning state,” 23 October 2008.
32
Los Angeles Times, “Candidates come courting the Hoosiers,” 19 October 2008.
33
Chicago Tribune, “Surprise toss-up: Indiana,” 18 October 2008.
34
The New York Times, “As Industries Dry Up, Frustration and Despair,” 12 October 2008.
35
The Economist, “Swing states: Indiana: Hoosier Daddy?” 11 October 2008.
36
Los Angeles Times, “Candidates come courting the Hoosiers,” 19 October 2008.
37
Associated Press Newswires, “Fights over voting in storied Lake County could decide whether Democrats
get rare Indiana win,” 27 October 2008.
38
The Age, “Obama looking good in bellwether county,” 27 October 2008.
39
Associated Press Newswires, “Fights over voting in storied Lake County could decide whether Democrats
get rare Indiana win,” 27 October 2008.
40
Associated Press Newswires, “More than 220,000 early votes already cast in Indiana, figure on pace to
shatter record,” 24 October 2008.
41
AP Candidate Profile
42
Indiana Governor web site
43
Almanac of American Politics 2008
44
45
Associated Press, “Magazine lauds Indiana's governor,” October 10, 2008
46
States News Service, “National Republican Organization Writes Mitch Daniels $725,000 Check,” July 22,
2008.
47
Biographical Directory of the United States Congress
48
Jill Long Thompson web site
49
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50
51
Indianapolis Star, "Long Thompson willing to put up a tough fight," October 26, 2008
52
53
Cook Political Report
54
CQ 2008 Election Guide
55
Associated Press, "Indiana governor's race a litmus test for change, October 22, 2008
56
Fort Wayne Journal Gazette, "Long Thompson stays competitive," October 26, 2008
57
58
59
The Cincinnati Enquirer, "McConnell an architect of today's Kentucky GOP", September 28, 2008.
60
The Cincinnati Enquirer, "McConnell an architect of today's Kentucky GOP", September 28, 2008.
61
62
63
Cook Political Report, April 2008.
64
AP Candidate Profile.
65
66
Time, “The Drive for 60,” 27 October 2008.
67
CQ Politics- Race Notes.
68
The New York Times, "G.O.P. Facing Tougher Battle For Congress", October 9, 2008.
69
Roll Call, " Ky. Race May Roil GOP", October 9, 2008.
70
Roll Call, "Ky. Race May Roil GOP", October 9, 2008.
71
Time, “The Drive for 60,” 27 October 2008.
72
The Wall Street Journal, "Campaign '08: Kentucky Race Reflects Wider GOP Woes", October 16, 2008.
73
The Associated Press State & Local Wire, " McConnell: Rescue plan not a political liability", October 11,
2008.
74
The Wall Street Journal, "Campaign '08: Kentucky Race Reflects Wider GOP Woes", October 16, 2008.
75
The Lexington Herald Leader, “Race for U.S. Senate looks too close to call,” 23 October 2008.
76
The Lexington Herald Leader, “Race for U.S. Senate looks too close to call,” 23 October 2008.
77
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78
Larry Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics “Senate Sensibilities – The October 2008 Update,” 2
October, 2008.
79
80
81
82
29
399
83
CQ Today Politics, "State House Speaker’s Bid Puts Vermont Gov. Douglas in Competitive Race,"
September 23, 2008
84
85
86
CQ Today Politics, "State House Speaker’s Bid Puts Vermont Gov. Douglas in Competitive Race,"
September 23, 2008
87
Associated Press, “Douglas spends at twice Symington's pace on media,” October 22, 2008
88
The Wall Street Journal, “In Virginia, McCain Struggles To Hold the South for GOP,” 13 October 2008.
89
The Free Lance-Star (MCT), “VIRGINIA HAS A ROLE: Zeroing in on the presidential election in
Fredericksburg region,” 26 October 2008.
90
The Washington Post, “Poll Gives Obama 8-Point Va. Lead; McCain's Image Still Linked to Bush,” 27
October 2008.
91
CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS, “Presidential Ground Games Go Hyper-Local in Northern Virginia,” Oct. 22,
2008 – 12:29 a.m.
92
93
October 2008.
94
Richmond Times-Dispatch (MCT), “Kaine: Va. more crucial to McCain than to Obama,” 27 October 2008.
95
Washington Post, “As Parties Woo Va., Spending Soars,” October 22, 2008.
96
October 2008.
97
Associated Press Newswires, “McCain aide says he's strong in 'real' Virginia,” 18 October 2008.
98
October 2008.
99
The Richmond Times-Dispatch, “Hampton Roads vote seen as key,” 12 October 2008.
100
Associated Press Newswires, “McCain heads back to Virginia to contest turf GOP owned for 10
presidential races,” 11 October 2008.
101
October 2008.
102
The Richmond Times-Dispatch, “Obama looks to hold back McCain in Southwest Va.” 5 October 2008.
103
October 2008.
104
Associated Press Newswires, “Virginia presidential contest hinges on DC exurbs,” 26 September 2008.
105
The Washington Post, “Obama, Biden Turn Attention To Outer Suburbs in Virginia,” 28 September 2008.
106
CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS, “Presidential Ground Games Go Hyper-Local in Northern Virginia,” Oct. 22,
2008 – 12:29 a.m.
107
108
October 2008.
109
The Free Lance-Star (MCT), “VIRGINIA HAS A ROLE: Zeroing in on the presidential election in
Fredericksburg region,” 26 October 2008.
110
New York Times Blogs Warner for Senate: Mark, Not John September 12, 2007.
111
Richmond Times-Dispatch: Warner Will Run for U.S. Senate; 9/13/2007.
112
113
Richmond Times-Dispatch: Warner Will Run for U.S. Senate; 9/13/2007.
114
NY Times: Ex-Gov. Warner Decides to Forgo White House Run; October 13, 2006.
115
Washington Post Va., Warner on National Stage August 14, 2008.
116
Washington Post Va., Warner on National Stage August 14, 2008.
117
LA Times Mark Warner sees his political star rise 8/14/08.
118
Washington Post: Former Va. Gov. Warner Set to Seek Senate Seat; 9/13/07.
119
The Virginian-Pilot: Senate candidates put records as governor on the line; October 6, 2008.
120
Washington Post: Va., Warner on National Stage; August 14, 2008.
121
Washington Times: Warner, Gilmore ready to debate; July 18, 2008.
122
Washington Post: Former Va. Governor Finds a Forum; September 3, 2008.
123
124
The Wall Street Journal: Campaign '08: Virginia Senate Seat in Play --- Democrats See Hope for First
Win in 35 Years; 14 June 2008.
125
126
The New York Times, "A Former Governor of Virginia Will Explore a Presidential Run," 20 December
2006.
127
The New York Times, "A Former Governor of Virginia Will Explore a Presidential Run," 20 December
2006.
400
128
130
The Cook Political Report, Baseline Analysis, Virginia Senate.
131
The Richmond Times-Dispatch: Warner, Gilmore face off / In Senate candidates' first debate, they clash
on energy and character; 20 July 2008.
132
The Richmond Times-Dispatch: Warner, Gilmore face off / In Senate candidates' first debate, they clash
on energy and character; 20 July 2008.
133
Virginian-Pilot: Senate candidates launch attacks ads on TV; 9/10/08.
134
135
136
The Washington Post: Looking for a Ticket to Washington; June 12, 2008.
137
The Virginian-Pilot: Senate candidates put records as governor on the line; October 6, 2008.
138
Virginian-Pilot: Gilmore, Warner trade jabs over bailout of Wall Street; October 4, 2008.
139
Washington Post: Gilmore Starts Senate Race With Tax Vow; June 11, 2008.
140
Washington Post: Gilmore Starts Senate Race With Tax Vow; June 11, 2008.
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Keith S. Fimian, September 18, 2008
150
151
Human Events Vol. 64, Fimian vs. Connolly, July 21/2008
152
Campaign website: http://www.keithfimian.com/action/?page=biography.about
153
154
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Keith S. Fimian, September 18, 2008
155
156
157
158
159
Almanac of American Politics
160
CQ, U.S. House, Virginia - 11th District:http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=district-VA-11
161
Richmond Times Dispatch, Fairfax supervisor wins key primary in N.Va.June 11, 2008
162
Winston-Salem Journal, “BOTH CANDIDATES TO CAMPAIGN IN STATE, WHERE RACE IS A
TOSSUP,” 18 October 2008.
163
Associated Press Newswires, “Biden returns to NC as state becomes focus of final campaign days,” 27
October 2008.
164
Charlotte Observer (NC), “New poll shows split in N.C., S.C. politics,” 24 October 2008.
165
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166
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167
Charlotte Observer (NC), “New poll shows split in N.C., S.C. politics,” 24 October 2008.
168
169
170
Dow Jones News Service, “In North Carolina, Democrats Eye An Upset Of Sen Dole,” 27 October 2008.
171
172
173
174
Los Angeles Times, “Obama's wife scouts for military families' vote,” 26 October 2008.
175
176
Associated Press Newswires, “More than 1M people cast ballots in NC's early voting, surpassing 2004
with a week to go,” 26 October 2008.
177
Dow Jones News Service, “In North Carolina, Democrats Eye An Upset Of Sen Dole,” 27 October 2008.
178
McCroy web site
179
180
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181
Charlotte Observer, “McCrory championed big projects in Charlotte," October 13, 2008
182
129
401
183
185
Washington Post, "For GOP, Some Good News at Last -- on the Gubernatorial Front," October 27, 2008
186
Associated Press, "NC governor's race is surprisingly tight," October 16, 2008
187
188
189
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190
191
192
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193
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194
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Dole, Hagan lend selves money as vote nears,” Oct. 22, 2008.
195
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196
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Senate and other top races,” 23 October 2008.
197
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198
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challenge will be the face-off with Republican incumbent Sen. Dole; 7 May 2008.
199
The News & Observer: High-energy Hagan was dynamo in community; 5 October 2008.
200
The News & Observer: Dole's manner masks mettle; 28 September 2008.
201
The News & Observer: Dole's manner masks mettle; 28 September 2008.
202
203
Associated Press Newswires, “Winner of NC Senate race could play role in shaping expected changes to
banking regulation,” 22 October 2008.
204
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205
October, 2008.
206
207
208
209
210
Associated Press Newswires, “Bill Clinton campaigns in Ohio for Obama, a day before Hillary Rodham
Clinton hits the state,” 16 October 2008.
211
Associated Press Newswires, “Ohio and its voters: economy, war top issues in state with static
population, job losses,” 27 October 2008.
212
Associated Press Newswires, “Obama offers closing argument of campaign in vital state of Ohio,” 27
October 2008.
213
214
Associated Press Newswires, “Obama offers closing argument of campaign in vital state of Ohio,” 27
October 2008.
215
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216
The Washington Post, “Obama Leading In Ohio, Poll Finds; Edge Is 6 Points In a State Looming Large
for McCain,” 7 October 2008.
217
The Washington Post, “Obama Leading In Ohio, Poll Finds; Edge Is 6 Points In a State Looming Large
for McCain,” 7 October 2008.
218
219
Associated Press Newswires, “Palin takes message of economic recovery to hills of Appalachian Ohio,
solidly GOP territory,” 12 October 2008.
220
The San Diego Union-Tribune, “Blue-collar vote could give Ohio to Obama,” 12 October 2008.
221
Chicago Tribune, “Obama faces doubts in Ohio; Surrogates stress his support of gun rights,” 12 October
2008.
222
The Plain Dealer, “Economy helps Obama in bellwether south Ohio,” 10 October 2008.
223
224
The Plain Dealer, “Blacks' strong support of Obama may portend Ohio win,” 23 October 2008.
225
The Star-Ledger, “Reaction to new voters puts focus on Ohio,” 23 October 2008.
226
227
228
CQ Weekly, “Election 2008: Midwest: Democrats Have High Hopes,” Oct. 27, 2008.
184
402
229
231
232
233
234
Plain Dealer, Democrats may have good shot at Ohio seats in Congress, September 27, 2008
235
Plain Dealer, Democrats may have good shot at Ohio seats in Congress, September 27, 2008
236
CQ, Election Forecast 2008: Ohio Is THE Battleground State Aug. 4, 2008.
237
Columbus Dispatch, Eckhart may split GOP vote in 15th, Oct. 13, 2008
238
239
Plain Dealer, Five candidates line up to replace Rep. Regula, February 14, 2008
240
241
http://www.johnforcongress.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=12&Itemid=35
242
243
244
Campaign website: http://www.schuringforcongress.com/about
245
246
Campaign website: http://www.schuringforcongress.com/about
247
248
Plain Dealer, Five candidates line up to replace Rep. Regula, February 14, 2008
249
Associated Press, District sees Washington as hopeless, helpless, August 15, 2008
250
Associated Press, District sees Washington as hopeless, helpless, August 15, 2008
251
CongressDaily, Primary Results Give Dems Hope Of Taking Regula's Seat, 3/5/2008
252
Beacon Journal, Candidates in 16th looking familiar, Oct.13, 2008
253
New York Daily News, “IN W.VA., RACE BIG HILL FOR BARACK,” 24 October 2008.
254
The Wall Street Journal, “Campaign '08: Obama Intensifies Effort in Appalachia,” 25 October 2008.
255
Charleston Gazette, “Could West Virginia go for Obama?” 17 October 2008.
256
CQ Weekly, “West Virginia: GOP Drift Hard to counter,” 21 August 2008.
257
Charleston Gazette, “Could West Virginia go for Obama?” 17 October 2008.
258
Associated Press Newswires, “AFL-CIO targets W.Va. for union's election campaign focus,” 24 October
2008.
259
260
261
262
263
Charleston Gazette, "Gubernatorial candidates debate," October 14, 2008
264
265
266
267
The Cook Political Report.
268
Roll Call.
269
270
271
Charleston Gazette, “‘Sustained outrage’ drives Rockefeller,” 22 October 2008.
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
Roll Call, “South,” Oct. 7, 2008.
280
Montgomery Advertiser, “Figures, Sessions wage low-key race,” 13 October 2008.
281
282
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Bobby Bright, September 15, 2008
283
284
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Bobby Bright, September 15, 2008
285
286
287
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Jay Love, September 15, 2008
288
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Jay Love, September 15, 2008
289
230
403
290
292
CQ 2008 Election Guide, U.S. House, Alabama - 2nd
293
Montgomery Advertiser, Some say Smith support had a price, Oct.21, 2008
294
295
296
297
298
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Christopher Shays, October 2, 2008
299
300
301
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, James Himes, September 19, 2008
302
303
CQ Weekly, “Election 2008: Northeast: Competitive Ground,” Oct. 27, 2008.
304
305
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, James Himes, September 19, 2008
306
McClatchy-Tribune, Shays, Himes in dead heat: Popular 4th District incumbent is target for Dems,
October 26, 2008
307
Project Vote Smart; Washington Post Campaign 2008 web site
308
Washington Post Campaign 2008 web site
309
News-Journal, "From businessman to public servant," September 6, 2008
310
Jack Markell web site
311
Washington Post Campaign 2008 web site
312
Associated Press, "Former party outsiders vie for Delaware governor," October 23, 2008
313
Project Vote Smart
314
315
316
317
318
Bill Lee web site, http://www.leedelaware.com/index.cfm?ref=20100
319
320
News-Journal, "The money's on Markell, but Lee says 'there is no quit'," October 11, 2008
321
322
Dover News-Journal, "Markell trumpets impartiality to donors," October 24, 2008
323
CQ Politics in America Profile, Updated: April 1, 2007.
324
Associated Press Newswires, “Sen. Biden Abandons Presidential Bid,” 4 January 2008.
325
326
327
The Washington Post, “The Foreign-Policy Pro,” 16 December 2007.
328
329
Associated Press Newswires, “Sen. Biden Abandons Presidential Bid,” 4 January 2008.
330
331
ABCNews.com, “Son would vote for Biden as VP from Iraq,” August 19, 2008.
332
333
334
Roll Call, “Mid-Atlantic,” Oct. 7, 2008.
335
The New York Times, “While McCain Looked Away, Florida Shifted,” 25 October 2008.
336
Associated Press Newswires, “Financial woes melt McCain's lead, allow Obama to compete for Florida's
27 electoral votes,” 17 October 2008.
337
338
339
Orlando Sentinel, “McCAIN BARNSTORMS I-4 FOR CRUCIAL VOTES,” 24 October 2008.
340
341
Newsweek, “Florida GOP: Red With Dismay,” October 27, 2008.
342
343
National Journal, “Obama's Sun-Splashed Tank Battle,” Oct. 25, 2008.
344
345
National Journal, “Obama's Sun-Splashed Tank Battle,” Oct. 25, 2008.
346
347
291
404
348
Chicago Tribune, “The United States of Florida,” 25 January 2008.
350
351
352
The Miami Herald, “Florida's I-4 corridor is key election battleground,” 5 October 2008.
353
Newsweek, “Florida GOP: Red With Dismay,” October 27, 2008.
354
Orlando Sentinel, “McCAIN BARNSTORMS I-4 FOR CRUCIAL VOTES,” 24 October 2008.
355
St. Petersburg Times, “REPUBLICANS FRET OVER FIGHT FOR TAMPA BAY,” 17 October 2008.
356
The Wall Street Journal, “Campaign '08: Improving Odds In Florida Buoy McCain Bus Tour,” 24 October
2008.
357
St. Petersburg Times, “REPUBLICANS FRET OVER FIGHT FOR TAMPA BAY,” 17 October 2008.
358
The Wall Street Journal, “Campaign '08: Cubans Show Signs of New Splits in South Florida,” 25 October
2008.
359
Chicago Tribune, “In Florida, Jewish voters divided,” 19 October 2008.
360
Chicago Tribune, “The United States of Florida,” 25 January 2008.
361
Sarasota Herald-Tribune, “Panhandle rough territory for Obama, despite changes,” 29 September 2008.
362
Associated Press Newswires, “Florida tries not to bungle this election,” 24 October 2008.
363
Associated Press Newswires, “Florida tries not to bungle this election,” 24 October 2008.
364
Almanac of American Politics, 2008 ed.
365
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Ric Keller, June 28, 2006
366
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Alan Grayson, September 25, 2008
367
368
Orlando Sentinel, CQ: No clear favorite in Keller, Feeney races, October 20, 2008
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Raul Martinez, September 30, 2008
349
379
381
382
Miami Herald, Attack ads knock out issues in Lincoln Diaz-Balart/Raul Martinez race, October 18, 2008
383
Miami Herald, Attack ads knock out issues in Lincoln Diaz-Balart/Raul Martinez race, October 18, 2008
384
Local 10 (Florida) District 25 Candidates Differ On Key Issues, Oct.24, 2008
385
Local 10 (Florida) District 25 Candidates Differ On Key Issues, Oct.24, 2008
386
387
388
389
390
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Suzanne Kosmas, September 25, 2008
391
CQ Politics, CQ Politics’ House Rating Changes Topped by Bachmann Blow-Up, October 21, 2008
392
Orlando Sentinel, CQ: No clear favorite in Keller, Feeney races, October 20, 2008
393
394
The Miami Herald, “Congressional candidate Joe Garcia had early interest in politics,” 14 October 2008.
395
396
397
398
399
Roll Call, “Mid-West,” Oct. 7, 2008.
400
Roll Call.
401
402
403
404
380
405
405
407
408
409
Campaign website: http://www.debbiehalvorson.com/about
410
411
412
413
Chicago Sun Times, State senator's stepson injured in Afghanistan, August 8, 2008
414
415
416
417
418
ABCNEWS7, Race still tight in 11th district, October 14, 2008
419
Associated Press, Cheney has heart problem, misses fundraiser, Oct.15, 2008
420
421
422
423
Bangor Daily News: Democratic challenger argues for change in D.C.; October 18, 2008.
424
425
426
427
Roll Call.
428
CongressDaily/A.M., “Dems Ramp Up Effort To Reach Elusive 60,” 23 October 2008.
429
430
Roll Call, “New England,” Oct. 7, 2008.
431
FOX News Candidate Biography; Thomas Hodge Allen; accessed October 15, 2008.
432
Bangor Daily News: Democratic challenger argues for change in D.C.; October 18, 2008.
433
Bangor Daily News: Incumbent emphasizes her bipartisan record; October 18, 2008.
434
435
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Andrew Harris, December 28, 2007
436
437
438
Campaign Website:http://www.congress.org/congressorg/webreturn/?url=http://frankkratovil.com
439
440
441
442
CQ 2008 Election Guide, U.S. House, Maryland - 1st District
443
Baltimore Sun, Harris fighting off Kratovil surge in 1st District, October 21, 2008
444
445
446
447
448
449
Roll Call, “New England,” October 7, 2008.
450
Roll Call.
451
Roll Call, “New England,” October 7, 2008.
452
Associated Press Newswires, “Sen. Kerry's GOP challenger Jeff Beatty has $58,448 in campaign war
chest as race winds down,” 21 October 2008.
453
Worcester Telegram & Gazette News, "Kerry, Beatty spar in initial debate for U.S. Senate", October 21,
2008.
454
Boston Globe, "Beatty hammers Kerry on Iraq vote", October 21, 2008.
455
Associated Press Newswires, “Kerry, GOP challenger Beatty joust over taxes, bailout bill, Iraq, in first
debate for Senate,” 20 October 2008.
456
457
458
Associated Press Newswires, “Biographical information on US Senate candidates Thad Cochran, Erik
Fleming,” 18 October 2008.
459
460
461
462
Roll Call, “Election Preview: South,” Oct. 7, 2008.
406
406
463
Associated Press Newswires, “Fleming challenges US Senate incumbent so well known in Miss. his
signs say only first name,” 18 October 2008.
465
466
The Almanac of American Politics, "Sen. Roger Wicker", 2008 edition.
467
468
469
The New York Times, “Democrats Try to Take A Senate Seat In Mississippi,” 19 October 2008.
470
471
472
473
474
475
Associated Press Newswires, “Wicker uses fake Village People, person in cow costume in ad slamming
Musgrove,” 15 October 2008.
476
Roll Call, “DSCC Cash Bolstering Musgrove Bid,” Oct. 23, 2008.
477
478
Associated Press Newswires, “Wicker uses fake Village People, person in cow costume in ad slamming
Musgrove,” 15 October 2008.
479
480
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481
Associated Press Newswires, “Obama blitzing Florida, McCain defends Missouri,” 20 October 2008.
482
Associated Press Newswires, “Republican VP candidate Palin returning to Missouri for Cape Girardeau
event,” 27 October 2008.
483
The New York Times, “In Missouri, Slow Economy Helps Obama,” 18 October 2008.
484
The Economist, “Swing states: Missouri: Show me a showdown,” 30 August 2008.
485
St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “SHOW-ME STRATEGY ELECTION 2008,” 19 October 2008.
486
The Economist, “Swing states: Missouri: Show me a showdown,” 30 August 2008.
487
The Kansas City Star, “Fervor fades for GOP ticket in Republican stronghold of southwest Missouri,” 25
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488
Chicago Tribune, “100,000 'wows' Obama; In battleground Missouri, record U.S. crowd gathers,” 19
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489
St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “McCain, Cheney and Bill Clinton are here today,” 20 October 2008.
490
St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “SHOW-ME STRATEGY ELECTION 2008,” 19 October 2008.
491
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492
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493
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494
St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Nixon looks to soften combative image," July 11, 2008
495
496
National Journal, Almanac of American Politics 2008 edition
497
498
499
500
Kansas City Star, "Nixon blows lid off fundraising record by taking in nearly $4 million in September;
Hulshof's strong month falls far short," October 15, 2008
501
St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "Jay Nixon has commanding lead over Kenny Hulshof in campaign's final stage,"
October 27, 2008
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
The Boston Globe, “For Obama, a new cause for confidence - and for caution,” 26 October 2008.
509
Reuters News, “FACTBOX-New Hampshire in play in tight White House race,” 22 September 2008.
510
Associated Press Newswires, “15 days out, Obama has no NH visits scheduled,” 20 October 2008.
511
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “McCain looking to N.H. yet again,” 26 October 2008.
512
513
514
National Journal, “GOP Woes in 'McCain Country,'” 3 July 2008.
515
464
407
516
The Washington Post, “Editorial: A New England Brawl,” 26 October 2008.
518
519
Reuters News, “FACTBOX-New Hampshire in play in tight White House race,” 22 September 2008.
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
Union Leader, "For Kenney and Lynch, governor's race is about spending," October 20, 2008
527
528
Sununu Senate webpage: http://sununu.senate.gov/biography.html.
529
530
531
FOX News: http://elections.foxnews.com/candidate/john-edward-sununu/.
532
Nashua Telegraph: Shaheen would look to tighten spending; October 8, 2008.
533
534
USA Today: Demographic shift could color how N.H. votes; 10/2/08.
535
NY Times: New Hampshire Race Focuses on the Pocketbook; 8 September 2008.
536
NY Times: Acid test in New Hampshire race Senate campaign focuses on economy; 9 September 2008.
537
Associated Press Newswires, “Volume increases in US Senate race as candidates try to drown each
other out during NH debate,” 22 October 2008.
538
NY Times: New Hampshire Race Focuses on the Pocketbook; 8 September 2008.
539
Roll Call
540
The New York Times, “McCain's Struggles Leave a G.O.P. Incumbent to Fight a Democratic Tide,” 22
October 2008.
541
Union Leader: U.S. Senate: Next, the Sununu-Shaheen rematch; September 9, 2008.
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
NY Times Profile: Frank R. Lautenberg; accessed October 17, 2008.
549
550
551
Cook Political Report: 2008 Senate – NJ; Dick Zimmer; accessed October 17, 2008.
552
553
554
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555
Hunterdon County Democrat: Zimmer challenges Senator Lautenberg; October 18, 2008.
556
The Star-Ledger: Zimmer criticizes Lautenberg for theater earmark; September 28, 2008.
557
The Star-Ledger, “Zimmer badly trails Lautenberg on funds,” 18 October 2008.
558
559
Campaign website: http://adlerforcongress.com/john.
560
561
562
Associated Press, NJ congressional candidates, at-a-glance, October 5, 2008
563
Associated Press, NJ congressional candidates, at-a-glance, October 5, 2008
564
565
566
567
568
569
Associated Press, Battle for NJ 3rd District, Oct.13, 2008
570
Philadelphia Inquirer, Campaign funds are key in S. Jersey congressional race, July 22, 2008
571
572
Stender’s Campaign website: http://lindastenderforcongress.com/about/
573
574
Washington Post, House: Ferguson Retirement Creates Another Competitive Open Seat, November 19,
2007
517
408
575
577
578
579
The Star-Ledger, Bush in N.J. to boost local candidates, September 23, 2008
580
Washington Post, House: Ferguson Retirement Creates Another Competitive Open Seat, November 19,
2007.
581
The Star-Ledger, Poll: Race in 7th District too close to call, October 7, 2008
582
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583
U-Wire: U. Oklahoma: Okla. senator says youth, inexperience assets in U.S. campaign; 23 October
2007.
584
585
Joplin Globe: Sen. Inhofe seeking third full term; July 21, 2008.
586
587
Cook Political Report: 2008 Senate Profile –Andrew Rice – OK; accessed October 21, 2008.
588
589
Cook Political Report: 2008 Senate Profile –Andrew Rice – OK; accessed October 21, 2008.
590
591
The Oklahoman: INHOFE, RICE RUN IN FINAL STRETCH; Hopefuls focus on economy; 12 October
2008.
592
U-Wire: U. Oklahoma: Okla. senator says youth, inexperience assets in U.S. campaign; 23 October
2007.
593
Roll Call, “Southwest,” October 7, 2008.
594
The Oklahoman: INHOFE, RICE RUN IN FINAL STRETCH; Hopefuls focus on economy; 12 October
2008.
595
596
597
598
The Oklahoman: Democrat sees break, joins U.S. Senate race; Constituents plead for Rice to seek
office; 25 November 2007.
599
600
The Economist, “Swing states: Pennsylvania: McCain’s last stand,” 25 October 2008.
601
NY Times, “McCain Camp Fights to Keep Crucial Blue State in Play,” October 22, 2008.
602
Associated Press Newswires, “Obama, McCain return to Pa. Monday, Tuesday to open final full week of
presidential campaign,” 27 October 2008.
603
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Campaigns meet on blue battlefield,” 27 October 2008.
604
NY Times, “McCain Camp Fights to Keep Crucial Blue State in Play,” October 22, 2008.
605
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Campaigns meet on blue battlefield,” 27 October 2008.
606
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Ridge says Pa. a must win for McCain,” 25 October 2008.
607
The Baltimore Sun, “AN UPHILL CLIMB IN PA.” 24 October 2008.
608
609
610
The Wall Street Journal, “McCain Doesn't Look Competitive in Pennsylvania,” 24 October 2008.
611
612
613
614
615
616
Politico, “McCain's path to victory through Pa.,” October 22, 2008.
617
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “McCain returns to region, still hopes to win Pa.” 19 October 2008.
618
619
620
621
622
The Wall Street Journal, “McCain Doesn't Look Competitive in Pennsylvania,” 24 October 2008.
623
624
625
626
627
628
629
576
409
630
632
Pittsburgh Tribune Review, Hazelton mayor tough on illegals gains upper hand in rematch, September
17, 2008
633
634
17, 2008
635
636
637
638
The Associated Press, Hazleton mayor named Pa.'s Mayor of the Year, July 20, 2008
639
17, 2008
640
641
AP Newswire (Government Feed), “House Democrats coming to aid of Murtha after veteran lawmaker
called his district 'racist,'” 28 October 2008.
642
Associated Press Newswires, “GOP challenger out-raises Murtha in quarter,” 18 July 2008.
643
AP Newswire (Government Feed), “House Democrats coming to aid of Murtha after veteran lawmaker
called his district 'racist,'” 28 October 2008.
644
645
646
647
648
649
650
Roll Call.
651
652
Associated Press Newswires, “No need so far for Alexander to break out plaid shirt in Tenn. race for
Senate against Tuke,” 18 October 2008.
653
654
655
Roll Call, “South,” Oct. 7, 2008.
656
The Arkansas Democrat Gazette, “Campaign focus Senate race not over,” 20 October 2008.
657
658
659
Campaign website: http://www.kirkpatrickforarizona.com/content/meet_ann
660
661
662
663
664
665
Human Events Vol. 64, Hay vs. Kirkpatrick Sept.22, 2008
666
667
Targeted News Service, Sydney Hay for Congress in Arizona's Dist. One, Oct 3, 2007.
668
Campaign website: http://www.sydneyhayforcongress.com/About_Sydney.aspx
669
Human Events Vol. 64, Hay vs. Kirkpatrick, Sept.22, 2008
670
671
CQ Weekly, “Election 2008: West: GOP Plays Defense,” Oct. 27, 2008.
672
673
Arizona Capitol Times, Arizona Republicans may lose open seat to Democrats, April 10, 2008
674
675
Arizona Capitol Times, Arizona Republicans may lose open seat to Democrats, April 10, 2008
676
The Associated Press, Big crowd assembles for bid to replace Renzi, August 16, 2008
677
The Associated Press, Big crowd assembles for bid to replace Renzi, August 16, 2008
678
679
680
681
682
683
684
685
The Christian Science Monitor, “Obama strong in long-red Colorado,” 27 October 2008.
631
410
686
Associated Press Newswires, “Obama draws about 150,000 to rallies in downtown Denver, Colorado
State University,” 27 October 2008.
687
The Christian Science Monitor, “Obama strong in long-red Colorado,” 27 October 2008.
688
The Economist, “The swing states: Colorado: Suburban cowboys,” 9 August 2008.
689
National Journal, “Colorado: State of Transition,” 18 July 2008.
690
Associated Press Newswires, “Political landscape changes with more Democrats, seniors,” 27 October
2008.
691
Associated Press Newswires, “Political landscape changes with more Democrats, seniors,” 27 October
2008.
692
The Washington Post, “Counting on Colorado,” 26 October 2008.
693
The Washington Post, “Counting on Colorado,” 26 October 2008.
694
Associated Press Newswires, “Obama draws about 150,000 to rallies in downtown Denver, Colorado
State University,” 27 October 2008.
695
696
Washington Post: 2008 Elections for President, Congress and Governor; accessed October 15, 2008.
697
698
699
700
701
702
703
Rocky Mountain News, “Bob Kinsey: Green Party hopeful reaches out to disaffected voters,” 4 October
2008.
704
AP: Colo. Senate hopefuls attack each other on economy; September 28, 2008.
705
706
CQ Politics: Race to Watch: Colorado, U.S. Senate; accessed October 13, 2008.
707
Associated Press Newswires, “Republicans canceling Musgrave ads next week, pro-Udall ads could also
be yanked,” 23 October 2008.
708
The Wall Street Journal, “Campaign '08: Democratic Optimism Translates Into Dollars,” 18 October 2008.
709
AP: Senate candidates debate at CSU-Pueblo; 14 October 2008.
710
Colorado Springs Gazette: Candidates clash over Iraq, economy; 14 October 2008.
711
October, 2008
712
Wall Street Journal, Endangered Colorado Republican Bets on Vote Against Bailout
Stephanie Simon, Sep 24, 2008
713
714
Newsweek, Star Power, September 6, 2004
715
Denver Post, Brutal 4th District race leaves voters in limbo, Oct 3, 2008
716
Stephanie Simon, Sep 24, 2008.
717
718
719
USA Today, Independent groups up spending, Oct.9, 2008
720
721
Stephanie Simon, Sep 24, 2008.
722
Wall Street Journal, Endangered Colorado Republican Bets on Vote Against Bailout, Sept 24, 2008.
723
724
CQ Politics: Race to Watch: Kansas; accessed October 22, 2008.
725
726
727
728
729
Journal-World: Slattery is pledging to give Roberts a competitive race; 10 June 2008.
730
731
AP: Sen. Roberts expands financial advantage over Democrat Slattery in Kansas race; 20 October 2008.
732
Roll Call, “Plains,” October 7, 2008.
733
734
735
736
737
AP Candidate Profiles.
411
738
The Almanac of American Politics, "Sen. Mary Landrieu", 2008 edition.
740
The Almanac of American Politics, "Sen. Mary Landrieu", 2008 edition.
741
Louisiana Department of Treasury biography, http://www.treasury.state.la.us/, accessed: 10/15/08.
742
743
NPR Profile.
744
745
NPR Profile.
746
Times-Picayune, " Old GOP opposition used against Kennedy; It comes from 2004 when he was a
Demo", April 22, 2008.
747
NPR Profile.
748
749
NPR Profile.
750
Louisiana Department of Treasury biography, http://www.treasury.state.la.us/, accessed: 10/15/08.
751
752
753
Times-Picayune, "Bush supports Kennedy candidacy; State treasurer plans Senate run", April 23, 2008.
754
Times-Picayune, " Senate hopeful calls endorsement mistake; Kennedy backed Kerry for president", July
9, 2008.
755
Times-Picayune, " Mary Landrieu: Centrist with experience", October 15, 2008.
756
Associated Press Newswires, “Landrieu, Kennedy defend negative campaign ads in fourth and final US
Senate race debate,” 22 October 2008.
757
Roll Call, “Landrieu Hopes Only To Lose a Nickname,” 21 October 2008.
739
758
759
760
Campaign website: http://www.carmoucheforcongress.com/about.html
Campaign website: http://www.colonelbanks.com/wb_biography.html
Campaign website: http://flemingforcongress.com/bio.html
Campaign website: http://www.gorman08.com/about/
762
763
Shreveport Times, Primaries narrow field in search for McCrery successor, October 5, 2008
764
The Hill, Runoffs for Rep. Jefferson in 2nd district, both sides in 4th, October 6, 2008
765
Associated Press, 2 La. Congress races among 20 most expensive, October 10, 2008
766
The Hill, Runoffs for Rep. Jefferson in 2nd district, both sides in 4th, October 6, 2008
767
768
Campaign Website: http://www.doncazayoux.org/dc_meetdon.html
769
Campaign Website: http://www.doncazayoux.org/dc_meetdon.html
770
771
Campaign website: http://billcassidy.com/about/
772
773
774
775
The Advocate, 6th Congressional race to be fought mostly on airwaves, August 17, 2008
776
The Advocate, All eyes on Louisiana races, August 3, 2008
777
The Advocate, All eyes on Louisiana races, August 3, 2008
778
The Advocate, All eyes on Louisiana races, August 3, 2008.
779
The Advocate, Analysts say 6th District race likely to be close, Oct 11, 2008.
780
781
782
http://www.jackformichigan.org/about/
783
784
Roll Call.
785
786
787
Roll Call, “Midwest,” October 7, 2008.
788
789
CQ Politics, Michigan, U.S. Senate.
790
Detroit Free Press (MCT), “Hoogendyk and Levin divide on auto aid: Candidates debate help for
economy,” 21 October 2008.
791
792
793
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Mark Hamilton Schauer, September 18, 2008
794
795
761
412
796
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Mark Hamilton Schauer, September 18, 2008
Detroit News, Challenger Schauer Outraises Walberg in hot Michigan congressional race, Oct 16, 2008.
798
Detroit News, Mud flies in southern Mich. race for U.S. House, Oct 20, 2008
799
800
801
802
803
804
805
806
807
808
809
810
NPR Profile.
811
812
813
The New York Times, " No More Mr. Un-Nice Guy?", October 11, 2008.
814
Star Tribune, " CAMPAIGN 2008: senate debate; Now, about the economy ...", October 6, 2008.
815
The New York Times, " Bailout Votes and the Economy Threaten to Overwhelm Other Issues",
October 5, 2008.
816
Star-Tribune, “Senate candidates spar in second debate,” 12 October 2008.
817
Larry Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics “US Senate Update,” 16 October, 2008.
818
819
Star-Tribune, “Economy, energy take center stage in congressional race,” 22 October 2008.
820
821
822
Post-Bulletin (MCT), “For Davis, race is uphill battle,” 25 October 2008.
823
CQ Weekly, “Change in Momentum,” 19 October 2008.
824
825
Campaign webpage: http://www.madiaforcongress.com/bio
826
St. Paul Pioneer Press, 3rd Congressional District / Candidate's law license reinstated, August 7, 2008
827
828
829
Campaign website:
http://paulsenforcongress.com/index.asp?Type=B_BASIC&SEC={E25C19C2-A50A-423B-BA448999F3070F88}
830
831
832
833
Associated Press, Something new in Minn.'s 3rd Dist.: A real race, October 3, 2008
834
Associated Press, Something new in Minn.'s 3rd Dist.: A real race, October 3, 2008
835
Associated Press, Candidates in Minn.'s 3rd District to debate, August 17, 2008
836
Star Tribune, It's A Hot Race In The Third, October 5, 2008
837
838
Associated Press Newswires, “Race in Minn.'s 6th Dist. complicated by Bachmann's comments, but
some like what they hear,” 27 October 2008.
839
Associated Press Newswires, “Race in Minn.'s 6th Dist. complicated by Bachmann's comments, but
some like what they hear,” 27 October 2008.
840
NPR & PBS 2008 Election Map.
841
842
843
844
Associated Press Newswires, “Democrat Kleeb faces uphill climb in Nebraska Senate race against wellknown Johanns,” 17 October 2008.
845
846
847
Associated Press Newswires, “Campaign cash still flowing in for Nebraska's Senate race,” 23 October
2008.
848
849
850
797
413
851
AP: New Mexico Rep. Tom Udall to seek Democratic nomination for Senate; November 10, 2007.
Congressman Steve Pearce; accessed October 15, 2008.
853
854
Washington Times Election Profiles; Steve Pearce; accessed October 15, 2008.
855
Washington Times Election Profiles; Steve Pearce; accessed October 15, 2008.
856
857
858
859
AP: New Mexico Rep. Tom Udall to seek Democratic nomination for Senate; November 10, 2007.
860
861
Roll Call.
862
Associated Press Newswires, “Udall maintains fundraising advantage over GOP opponent in NM Senate
race, outspends Pearce,” 15 October 2008.
863
AP: GOP Senate candidate Pearce receives long-awaited endorsement from Domenici; 14 August 2008.
864
CQ Weekly: Democratic State of the States 2008: New Mexico; August 21, 2008.
865
CQ Politics: New Mexico: Hispanic Vote May Be Key; August 28, 2008.
866
The Santa Fe New Mexican: UDALL, PEARCE TRADE FIRE ON ENERGY; 12 September 2008.
867
868
869
Campaign website: http://www.martinheinrich.com/about/story
870
871
The Associated Press, Darren White: Sheriff good background for Congress, October 9, 2008.
872
873
874
Associated Press, Heinrich: City Council prepared him for Congress, October 9, 2008
875
Associated Press, Poll: Candidates in NM's 1st District nearly even, October 7, 2008
876
The Associated Press, Darren White: Sheriff good background for Congress, October 9, 2008
877
Associated Press, Poll: Candidates in NM's 1st District nearly even, October 7, 2008
878
879
880
881
882
883
New York Times, Mayor Backs Democrat In S.I. Congressional Race, Sept.20. 2008
884
885
886
Staten Island Advance, Molinaro crosses party lines for McMahon, September 14, 2008
887
Campaign Website: http://straniereforcongress.com/bio.php
888
889
890
891
NY Daily News, NY Minute Oct 8, 2008.
892
Staten Island Advance, Voters here face slew of decisions Six state races on tap, September 28, 2008
893
Staten Island Advance, Bloomberg touts city councilman's expertise, says he'd be 'strong voice' in the
Congress, September 20, 2008
894
895
896
897
Post-Standard, Even Without A Poll, Maffei's Chances Slip, October 5, 2008.
898
Campaign Website: http://www.maffeiforcongress.com/About_Dan/
899
Campaign Website: http://www.maffeiforcongress.com/About_Dan
900
901
902
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Dale Sweetland, September 18, 2008
903
904
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Dale Sweetland, September 18, 2008
905
906
907
Post-Standard, Colleagues Laud Walsh's Work, June 22, 2008
908
Post-Standard, Even Without A Poll, Maffei's Chances Slip, October 5, 2008
909
News 10 Now, NY, Maffei, Sweetland react to economic crisis, Sept. 25, 2008
910
Post-Standard, Maffei proposes to kill NAFTA, Oct 9, 2008
852
414
911
913
914
915
916
917
918
919
920
921
922
923
924
Associated Press, Summaries of ND state candidates' finance reports, October 24, 2008
925
Associated Press, "ND Dem gov candidate Mathern says Republican Gov. Hoeven's tax plan panders to
wealthy," September 26, 2008
926
Washington Post, "The Next Administration: Obama, October 19, 2008.
927
928
929
930
Roll Call.
931
The Cook Political Report, “RI SENATE: Nothing to See Here, Folks,” July 24, 2008.
932
Associated Press Newswires, “Reed reaps more than $1M in campaign cash from businesses in financial
sector,” 12 October 2008.
933
934
935
936
937
938
939
Roll Call.
940
941
The New York Times, “In South Dakota Race, Gauging the Impact of a Senator's Health,” 23 October
2008.
942
Associated Press Newswires, “Sen. Johnson far ahead in independent public opinion poll,” 21 October
2008.
943
The New York Times, “In South Dakota Race, Gauging the Impact of a Senator's Health,” 23 October
2008.
944
AP Candidate Backgrounds: accessed October 22, 2008.
945
Houston Chronicle, “Uphill fight didn't keep Noriega from quest,” 21 October 2008.
946
FOX News: Candidate Biography: Saxby Chambliss; accessed October 22, 2008.
947
AP Candidate Backgrounds: accessed October 22, 2008.
948
NPR 2008 Election Map; accessed October 23, 2008.
949
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950
Roll Call, “Southwest,” October 7, 2008.
951
CQ Politics: Races to Watch: Texas; accessed October 23, 2008.
952
CQ Politics: Races to Watch: Texas; accessed October 23, 2008.
953
The Dallas Morning News, “Noriega fights an uphill battle,” 21 October 2008.
954
Austin-American Statesman: Senate candidates show clear differences on Iraq; September 29. 2008.
955
956
957
958
959
Associated Press Candidate Biographies, Pete Olson, October 8, 2008
960
961
962
963
Wall Street Journal, GOP Goes on Offensive For DeLay's Old Seat, Jul 21, 2008
964
Houston Chronicle, Finances shift in area House races, Oct. 15, 2008.
965
Associated Press Newswires, “Unlike 4 years ago, Wisconsin is not in the spotlight heading into Election
Day,” 26 October 2008.
912
415
966
Associated Press Newswires, “Wisconsin targeted again during presidential race, but Obama holds edge
in final weeks,” 25 October 2008.
967
The Capital Times & Wisconsin State Journal, “WISCONSIN IS OBAMA COUNTRY, AIDE SAYS,” 25
October 2008.
968
969
970
Associated Press Newswires, “Unlike 4 years ago, Wisconsin is not in the spotlight heading into Election
Day,” 26 October 2008.
971
972
The Economist, “Swing states: Wisconsin: Of beer and bikers,” 13 September 2008.
973
St. Paul Pioneer Press, “MCCAIN, OBAMA BATTLE IN MILWAUKEE SUBURBS; CONSERVATIVE
AREA SEEN AS PIVOTAL,” 9 October 2008.
974
Associated Press Newswires, “Obama targets western Wisconsin, a key part of the state in presidential
race,” 30 September 2008.
975
Associated Press Newswires, “Voters who backed Feingold and Bush in 2004 will be critical in Wisconsin
presidential race,” 3 October 2008.
976
977
978
979
980
981
982
Associated Press Newswires, “Democrat US Senate candidate Rothfuss looks to set national policy after
being an adviser,” 17 October 2008.
983
984
Associated Press Newswires, “Sen. Enzi eschews Washington limelight and polls as he seeks another 6year term,” 17 October 2008.
985
Associated Press Newswires, “Democrat US Senate candidate Rothfuss looks to set national policy after
being an adviser,” 17 October 2008.
986
Associated Press Newswires, “Incumbents Enzi, Barrasso dominate challengers Rothfuss, Carter, in
money raised,” 16 October 2008.
987
988
Associated Press Newswires, “Gillette lawyer Nick Carter runs for US Senate on ‘Wyoming Tough’
platform,” 16 October 2008.
989
990
991
Roll Call, “Mountain,” Oct. 7, 2008.
992
Associated Press Newswires, “Gillette lawyer Nick Carter runs for US Senate on ‘Wyoming Tough’
platform,” 16 October 2008.
993
Associated Press Newswires, “Lummis has long political experience, but may face biggest challenge yet
in US House race,” 20 October 2008.
994
Associated Press Newswires, “With higher profile, Trauner hopes he can be rare Democrat to represent
Wyoming in Congress,” 20 October 2008.
995
996
Associated Press Newswires, “Democrat could win House seat once Cheney's,” 29 October 2008.
997
Associated Press Newswires, “Lummis has long political experience, but may face biggest challenge yet
in US House race,” 20 October 2008.
998
Associated Press Newswires, “Cynthia Lummis drops $100K into her bid to replace Cubin in US House,”
27 October 2008.
999
Associated Press Newswires, “With higher profile, Trauner hopes he can be rare Democrat to represent
Wyoming in Congress,” 20 October 2008.
1000
1001
Cedar Rapids Gazette, “Harkin helping fund Democrat candidates,” 21 October 2008.
1002
1003
1004
1005
Roll Call, “Plains,” Oct. 7, 2008.
1006
Associated Press Newswires, “Challenger: Harkin "Tokyo Rose" of al-Qaida because senator supports
withdrawal from Iraq,” 23 October 2008.
416
1007
Cedar Rapids Gazette, “Harkin helping fund Democrat candidates,” 21 October 2008.
1009
1010
Helena Independent Record, “Schweitzer hits trail after tough week,” October 22, 2008.
1011
1012
Almanac of American Politics 2008; AP Candidate Profile
1013
Associated Press, "Oil years molded Brown's conviction in less gov't," October 21, 2008
1014
1015
Associated Press, "Montana Governor’s Race Features Old Foes," October 25, 2008
1016
Missoulian, "Brown bests Schweitzer in fundraising over past 6 weeks," October 27, 2008
1017
Billings Gazette, "Candidate denies he's a vegetarian," October 17, 2008
1018
Associated Press, "Montana Governor’s Race Features Old Foes," October 25, 2008
1019
1020
1021
1022
1023
KPAX, In Senate bid, Kelleher still dreams of parliament, 10/17/08.
1024
1025
1026
Associated Press Newswires, “Kelleher still dreams of parliament, makes another longshot bid for US
Senate,” 17 October 2008.
1027
Roll Call, “Mountain,” Oct. 7, 2008.
1028
Associated Press Newswires, “Kelleher still dreams of parliament, makes another longshot bid for US
Senate,” 17 October 2008.
1029
The Boston Globe, “As economy craters, Nevadans say they'll gamble on `change',” 5 October 2008.
1030
Los Angeles Times, “Out to boost Obama's Nevada odds,” 14 October 2008.
1031
Associated Press Newswires, “Nevada Democrats remain far ahead of Republicans in early voting,” 27
October 2008.
1032
The Dallas Morning News, “Long odds for McCain in Nevada State's a microcosm of nation's economic
woes,” 25 October 2008.
1033
The Toronto Star, “Rumblings of political rebellion in Nevada,” 15 October 2008.
1034
The Dallas Morning News, “Long odds for McCain in Nevada State's a microcosm of nation's economic
woes,” 25 October 2008.
1035
Los Angeles Times, “Democrats are on a roll in Nevada,” 30 September 2008.
1036
Los Angeles Times, “Out to boost Obama's Nevada odds,” 14 October 2008.
1037
The Boston Globe, “As economy craters, Nevadans say they'll gamble on `change',” 5 October 2008.
1038
1039
Los Angeles Times, “Democrats are on a roll in Nevada,” 30 September 2008.
1040
1041
1042
Reuters News, “’Exurbs’ emerge as battleground in U.S. race,” 28 October 2008.
1043
1044
Las Vegas Sun, “Obama makes rare bid for rural Nevada vote,” 22 September 2008.
1045
The Washington Post, “Obama Goes to Nev. After Hawaii Detour; Democrat Emphasizes McCain-Bush
Ties,” 26 October 2008.
1046
Associated Press Newswires, “Nevada Democrats remain far ahead of Republicans in early voting,” 27
October 2008.
1047
Associated Press Newswires, “Obama wins endorsements from Hispanic media outlets in Nevada,” 23
October 2008.
1048
South Florida Sun-Sentinel, “ECONOMIC WOES DRIVE LATINOS' VOTES,” 26 October 2008.
1049
Associated Press Newswires, “Obama wins endorsements from Hispanic media outlets in Nevada,” 23
October 2008.
1050
Las Vegas Sun, “Galvanizing the gun vote,” 27 October 2008.
1051
The Las Vegas Review-Journal, “All in for McCain,” 26 October 2008.
1052
Las Vegas Sun, “Next president has power, though not absolute, over waste dump decision,” 13
October 2008.
1053
1054
1055
1056
1057
1058
1008
417
1059
1061
1062
Deseret News, "Huntsman is coasting; Springmeyer struggling," October 25, 2008
1063
Deseret News, "Huntsman, Springmeyer face off in debate," October 17, 2008
1064
1065
1066
1067
1068
1069
1070
1071
Roll Call, “Election Preview: Mountain,” Oct. 7, 2008.
1072
1073
1074
1075
1076
1077
1078
Roll Call, “Election Preview: Mountain,” Oct. 7, 2008.
1079
1080
Roll Call.
1081
Associated Press Newswires, “Economy, health care, experience take center stage for 4 candidates in
Idaho Senate debate,” 22 October 2008.
1082
1083
1084
FOX News: Candidate Biography: Jeff Merkley.
1085
1086
1087
CQ Politics: Race to Watch: Oregon, U.S. Senate; accessed October 13, 2008.
1088
CQ Today: Smith Faltering in Oregon, Democrat Merkley’s Chances Brighten; October 13, 2008.
1089
1090
Associated Press Newswires, “Ore.'s Smith gathers local Democrats' backing; Sierra Club endorses
Merkley,” 22 October 2008.
1091
Roll Call.
1092
The Cook Political Report, “OR SENATE: Is Smith the Lincoln Chafee of 2008?” October 9, 2008.
1093
Roll Call.
1094
1095
The Cook Political Report, “OR SENATE: Is Smith the Lincoln Chafee of 2008?” October 9, 2008.
1096
October, 2008.
1097
Wall Street Journal Interactive Electoral College map.
1098
1099
AP Candidate Profiles
1100
1101
1102
1103
1104
1105
1106
AP Candidate Profiles
1107
1108
1109
1110
1111
CQ Weekly: Republican State of the States 2008: Alaska; August 28, 2008.
1112
1113
CQ Today, “No Stevens Verdict Yet, But Lots of Jury Turmo,” Oct. 23, 2008.
1114
CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS – LEGAL AFFAIRS, “Sen. Stevens Found Guilty on All Seven Corruption
Counts,” Oct. 27, 2008.
1115
1116
Mark Begich for US Senate; accessed October 15, 2008.
1060
418
1117
Alaska Mayor's Office; Mayor Mark Begich; accessed October 15, 2008.
1119
FOX News: Candidate Biography: Mark Begich.
1120
CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS, “Stevens’ Verdict Gives Democrat Begich an Edge,” Oct. 27, 2008.
1121
CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS – CONGRESSIONAL AFFAIRS, “McCain Says Stevens Should Step
Down,” Oct. 28, 2008.
1122
CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS, “Senate Minority Leader Calls for Stevens To Resign,” Oct. 29, 2008.
1123
CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS – CONGRESSIONAL AFFAIRS, “McCain Says Stevens Should Step
Down,” Oct. 28, 2008.
1124
Roll Call, “West,” October 7, 2008.
1125
1126
1127
Anchorage Daily News: Begich takes step toward U.S. Senate campaign; February 27, 2008.
1128
FOX News: Candidate Biography: Mark Begich.
1129
CongressDaily/P.M., “DSCC Plans 11th-Hour Blitz Against Stevens,” 17 October 2008.
1130
Anchorage Daily News: Mark Begich – Democrat; August 19, 2008.
1131
AP: Stevens campaign steps up attack with ad challenging Begich ANWR stance; 10 October 2008.
1132
October, 2008.
1133
Campaign website: http://donyoung.house.gov/bio.htm
1134
1135
1136
1137
1138
Associated Press, Parnell concedes tight Alaska House race, September 19, 2008
1139
1140
CQ TODAY, Delayed Primary Win for Alaska Rep. Young Raises GOP’s Risk
Sept. 21, 2008
1141
Campaign website: http://www.ethanberkowitz.com/about/bio/about-ethan-berkowitz
1142
1143
1144
1145
1146
1147
1148
1149
CQ TODAY, Delayed Primary Win for Alaska Rep. Young Raises GOP’s Risk
Sept. 21, 2008
1150
1151
1152
CQ TODAY,Delayed Primary Win for Alaska Rep. Young Raises GOP’s Risk
Sept. 21, 2008
1118
419

2008 General Election Brainroom Briefing Book

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