Sept-22

9/22/2015
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Announcements:
Exam this Thursday
Make sure to bring:
Pencil
Red Scantron form
No notes allowed
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According to lecture, which of the following
statements are NOT in line with ideology of
Thomas Malthus?
A. if unchecked, population grows
geometrically
B. moral restraint is key to keeping
populations in check
C. food production only increases
arithmetically, as land is finite
D. Eventually the world’s population
will exceed available resources
E. All of these concepts are
Malthusian
Will be 40-50 multiple
choice/True False questions (70%
of total grade).
One essay question (30%)
No bluebook needed
Essay questions will be posted
later today or tomorrow.
According to “The Legacy of Malthus” film, what was the
Indian government’s solution to curb population growth
and create a better economic situation?
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
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Family planning taught in schools.
Handing out free condoms in
local clinics.
Eliminate all cows in the country
Through providing education and
work opportunities to women.
A sterilization program that
compensated participants.
Thomas Malthus
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1766-1834. Born near Guildford,
UK
Wrote ‘An essay in the First
Principle of population’ first
published in 1798
The world population in 1798
was at nine million people. We
have now passed the seven billion
mark.
Spawned a new way of thinking
about resources known today as
Neo-Malthusism or the
‘Depletionists’
Theories on the
relationship between
population and
resources
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and therefore he said….
War,
famine,
disease.
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‘Positive’ checks
(increased death rate)
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Population crash model
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Can we apply the “carrying capacity”
concept to humans? Why or why not?
At what point does famine occur?
The Club of Rome – Contemporary
Neo-Malthusians
Positive Checks were ways to reduce
population size by events such as famine,
disease, war - increasing the mortality rate
and reducing life expectancy.
Group of
industrialists,
scientists,
economists and
statesmen from 10
countries
Published ‘The
Limits to Growth’
in 1972
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The Club of Rome – basic
conclusion….
If present growth trends in
world population continue and
if associated industrialisation,
pollution, food production and
resource depletion continue
unchanged, the limits to growth
on this planet will be reached
sometime in the next 100 years.
The most probable result will be
sudden and uncontrollable
decline in both population and
industrial capacity
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Esther Boserup 1965
Malthus and the Club of
Rome – are they right?
What evidence is there to
support their ideas?
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Thus…….
Boserup believed that people have resources of
knowledge and technology and that “necessity is
the mother of invention”, thus as populations
grow towards the carrying capacity they develop
new ways to use resources (food) more
productively.
Cornucopians or ‘Boomsters’
Evidence?
Humans are able to expand carrying
capacity
Demographic pressure
(population density)
promotes innovation
and higher productivity
in use of land (irrigation,
weeding, crop
intensification, better
seeds) and labour (tools,
better techniques).
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Population and resource relationship after
Boserup
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Was Boserup Right?
The Machakos study
What about resource
degradation and pollution?
Can we continue to innovate
to overcome these issues?
Influential Study carried out
Machakos Kenya, funded by World
Bank.
1990-93 study by scientists at the
Overseas Development Institute,
London, and the University of
Nairobi
Examined change in population and
environment over a period of 60
years, from 1930 to 1990, and the
accompanying social and economic
changes as people responded to new
opportunities and new constraints.
1994
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Machakos Study
Copiously illustrated with
photographs taken in the
1930s, the 1950s and 60s,
and 1990, which showed
the striking changes in
landscapes as eroded
slopes became terraced
and planted with coffee,
fruit and timberproducing trees, and
gullies were healed.
1937 – Heavily eroded and deforested hillside
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The same gully in 1990, wider, but largely
revegetated
Gully in Matungulu in 1937,
said to have expanded from
a small water course
1937 – Hillside is transformed through terracing into a
productive and wooded farm
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Machakos Study – Results of study
Very rapid population growth (3.0%)
surpassed by increases in resource
productivity and per capita incomes.
New investments of work and capital,
combined with new technologies,
transformed and conserved the
landscape.
Many changes required extra
population, to provide labor, markets
and means.
Government policies supported local
practices such as land tenure and
traditional work parties.
New technologies and farming systems
had been adopted, responding to better
contacts with markets and more
sources of information.
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Underlying assumptions of
Machakos Study
Argue against the idea
that replacement of
natural vegetation with
farmland
=environmental
degradation.
Suggest that the
replacement of natural
vegetation by
sustainable farming
systems, which
conserves nutrients,
erosion, etc., is not
degradation.
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Despite cases like Machakos we still
have Malthusian-like cases:
1970-90s The Neo-Malthusian-Cornucopian
debate about the state of natural resources
Rwanda
Haiti
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Neo-Malthusians
The Population Bomb (1968)
See Diamond’s books
for details
But some like Robbins
argue these are not
‘natural’ predicaments.
They are the result of
cultural factors such
as inequality and the
mal-distribution of
resources
Key message:
Overpopulation → resource
scarcity
Will happen very soon
There is no way out!!!
Paul Ehrlich (1932-)
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The Population Bomb (1968)
Battle to feed all of humanity is over.
In 1970s & 1980s,
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Hundreds of millions of people
will starve to death in spite
of any crash programs…
World is running short
of vital resources.
The Neo-Malthusians
Ehrlich isn’t an innovator →
Neo-Malthusianism official US policy for decades…
Most funding goes to family planning
Originality of Ehrlich’s book is
strength
of his message
emotional appeal
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Debates:
The Cornucopians
The cornucopians
Most prominent cornucopian:
Julian Simon
Dissenting voices:
Mostly economists familiar with
Boserup.
The "horn of plenty," cornucopia
Focus on
role of prices
human inventiveness
technological innovation
Malthus is wrong:
Population increased at all kinds of
different rates historically,
food production increased at least as
fast, if not faster.
No discernible trend towards higher
prices, just the opposite
only exception: human capital
Julian Simon (1932-1998)
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Oct 2nd, 2004
Milestone: Oil
at $50/barrel
“threat to global
economy...G-7
officials called
on oil producers
to pump as much
as possible...
help bring prices
down.”
Cornicopians would
say…the high price of
oil will pass, as it has
done in the past.
July 11, 2008, oil prices hit
record of $147.27
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Simon: As prices of
natural resources rise
extraction methods
improve, also leads to
improved efficiency
and use of lower
grade resources.
Key resource:
Human ingenuity
Scarcity
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"The most important benefit of population size
and growth is the increase it brings to the stock
of useful knowledge. Minds matter
economically as much as, or more than, hands or
mouths.“ J. Simon
price
inventions
quality of life
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Simon -Erhlich Bet
“Resources, Population, Environment: An
Oversupply of False Bad News.” (Science,
1980)
Who do you think won the bet?
The Bet
Simon bet that the price (after
adjusting for inflation) of any set
of raw materials would be lower
ten years from now than it was
today. Ehrlich and his supporters
took up the challenge and, in
October 1980, chose five metals:
chrome, copper, nickel, tin, and
tungsten.
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Simon - Ehrlich’s Bet
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1980 & 1990- world's population
grew 800M, the largest
increase in one decade in
all of history!!!
September 1990,
Price of each of Ehrlich's selected
metals had fallen.
Simon Wins
Neo-Malthusians vs. Cornucopians
Example: US copper
1990 Price decreases
Copper : - 18.5 %
Chrome : - 40 %
Nickel :
- 3.5 %
Tin :
- 72 %
Tungsten : - 57 %
Early days: 1800s. rich ore,
basically pure nuggets. 500 ton
nugget!
October 1990
Paul Ehrlich mailed Julian Simon a
check for $576.07
Michigan upper peninsula
Led world in production, most
of 19th century
Removed over 5 million tons
of refined copper over 120
year period.
Example: US copper
By 1910 mines were shut down,
but not because ore ran out
Example: Quincy mine
US copper: Bingham Canyon, UT
Lower grade ores (~2%) copper
Underground mining unprofitable
Innovation open-pit mining
Still large quantities left
No longer competitive on world
markets
6000’ deep tunnel
Largest steam hoist in the world
Costs? HIGH!
No longer competitive
Even though lots of rich copper in
the ground
US copper: Bingham Canyon, UT
Produced 9 million tons by 1963
Still in operation
Started with horses, then steam
shovels (1906)
Major investments flowed in
This one mine produced 30% of all
copper for Allies during WWII
Nearby ASARCO smelter, one of the
largest sources of air pollution in US
until 1978
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Bingham Canyon Mine: Massive, visible
from space
US copper: Bingham Canyon, UT
Other aspect of copper: Increased
efficiency
Telephone voice cable
Net increase in efficiency 10 times as important as
increased production in terms of ‘finding new
resources’
1904=350lb/mile
1954=1lb/mile
Produced 9 million tons
by 1963
Still in operation
Produces 250-300,00 tons
of copper/ year-releasing
1 billion pounds of
toxins/year
Radio relay began, require no wires
Net increase in efficiency: 350-1
over 50 years
Efficiency usually much more
important and effective than
increased production
Copper Example
Use: More efficiency and recycling
Recycling: About half of all copper is from old
copper
Extraction: increased sophistication
Peak Oil?
Simon picked as ‘fairly typical’
Evidence:
Production up, 25 times more copper mined in
1900 than in 2000
Despite that much copper mined, prices down
75%
Main factor: substitution with less pure ores, still
make profit
Bingham Canyon unprofitable until new ideas of
open-pit mining
Simon’s model seems to ‘work’ for nonrenewables.
From fracking to methane hydrate
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/201
3/05/what-if-we-never-run-out-ofoil/309294/?single_page=true
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Renewable resource example: Cod
Classic case of resource
collapse: Atlantic Cod
fishery
Was one of most
important renewable
resources in the world.
Kurlansky, M. (1997).
Cod: A biography of the
fish that changed the
world. New York, Walker
and Co.
Neo-Malthusians
vs Cornucopians
In 1970 Cod fishing peaked, then
collapsed
Ehrlich (neo-Malthusians) better
predicting renewables
Simon (cornucopians) better at
non-renewables
Both may be self-negating. If act as
though true, more likely to be false!
Neo-Malthusians
vs Cornucopians
Paul Ehrlich
If you act like we can’t use all
resources (Simon) then more likely to
overuse
If you assume humans will overuse,
then there probably won’t be overuse
Which do you prefer?
“…even if Mr. Simon is right that
humans can adapt and prosper on
this rapidly changing planet, we have
to ask ourselves whether the risks and
inequalities of this change are
desirable”
“ Ultimately, humanity’s course will be
determined less by iron laws of nature
or by unbounded market powers, Mr.
Ehrlich and Mr. Simon’s dueling
lodestars, and more by the social and
political choices that we make.
Neither biology nor economics can
substitute for the deeper ethical
question: what kind of world do we
want to live in?”
2013, Yale University Press
Julian Simon (1932-1998)
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