Strathcona Update Jan. 2013

Strathcona Update Jan. 2013
“Cautionary Spending”
Gerry Gabinet, Director
Randy Richards, Manager, Commercial Development
Jordan Rumohr, Manager Industrial Development
Economic Development and Tourism
Strathcona County
Agenda
Who we are:
 What is Canada GDP compared to world ?
 Growth outlook Canada‐ Alberta‐ Edmonton CMA
 Stats Canada Update
 Our new brand What we are:
 Retail Market Update
 Alberta Industrial Heartland Updates
 Summary
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World Economy – IMF, World Bank, CIA World Facts
Source: Angus Watt Realtor’s Association 2013
Economic Outlook Forecasts:
Alberta 2013 2014‐2020
 CIBC 3.2% 3.3%
 BMO 3.4%
 TD 3.1% 3.1%
 ATB 3.0% 3.5%
 RBC 3.5% 4.2%
 C of C 3.5%
 CMHC 2.9%
 GOA 3.8% 3.0%
Metro Edmonton 2013
John Rose (Economist)
Edmonton
3.2%
Edmonton CMA 4.0%
CMHC
Net migration
16,200
Job Growth 2.0%
Edmonton Real Estate Board (housing) 2.0%
Stats Canada Update February 2012
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Canada 5.9%
Alberta 10.8%
Edmonton 11.2%
Calgary 10.9%
Strathcona 12.1%
Edmonton CMA 11.8%
Calgary CMA 12.9%
Since 2006
•Yellowhead County
•Lethbridge County
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Strathcona Sherwood Park Rural Growth Urban Rural Total Last 20 years Average rate 92,490
64,733
27,757
9,979
13.9%
8.2%
12.1%
62.9%
2.45%
Our New Brand: Living. Refined
There’s also a humble heartbeat that reminds us of more constrained beginnings, and grounds us and our children in reality rather than artificiality. We are salt of the earth in agriculture roots and
environmental stewardship that continue to nourish life and living. We’re not exotica and New York City. We’re something more.
Truth, beauty, and goodness pulse here. There’s serenity of escapism. Recreation and healthy lifestyle are a drumbeat.
Knowing neighbors' still matters. Giving back and paying it forward matters even more.
We are leadership, innovation, pursuit of excellence, creativity, potential, enablement, and empowerment. We are human powered.
Strathcona County. You owe it to yourself.
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Money Sense Magazine 2012: Recognition for Strathcona County
Best Place to raise kids #1
Family Income across Canada #4
Best Place find a job #1
*From over 190 municipalities across Canada Population over 10,000
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Strathcona Growth
120000
66,295
84,722
82,511
94,253
96,076
89,382
87,998
85,521
92,490
64,733
100000
101,545
99,722
97,899
72,706
71,103
69,500
67,897
62,850
61,660
56,845
58,754
59,409
60000
Total
Urban
Rural
28,839
28,619
28,399
28,178
27,958
27,757
26,532
26,338
26,112
20000
25,968
40000
25,666
Population
80000
0
2006
2007
2008*
2009*
2010
2011
Year
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2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Canada vs United States for Home Equity
Source: Angus Watt Realtor’s Association 2013
Edmonton vs Canada MLS Housing Pricing
Source: Realtor’s Association Edmonton 2013
Edmonton CMA MLS Pricing 2012
Source: Realtor’s Association Edmonton 2013
Sherwood Park Sales and Pricing Housing industry 7.8% Alberta GDP- $22 B- 270,800
employed
Annualized Building Permit Activity to December 2012
Sherwood Park
12.7%
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Industrial Update Q‐4 Avison Young 1/15/2013
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Strathallen Redevelopment dm
a
o
Br
r
o
o
Basel
ine
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Millennium Ridge
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New Buildings Trans America
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Broadview Centre
Liberty Village ‐SCR Real Estate
East
Sherwood Chevrolet
Broadmoor
3rd Ford new vehicle
Dealer in Canada
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Lakeland Drive‐ Best Western, Tims, Fire Hall
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Over 75 % of industrial land under contract
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Emerald Hills – Full Build out 15,000 people around 2017‐20.
Draft Plans for new 25m pool and all weather sporting fields
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Confirmed Retail Emerald – Grand Opening October 6, 2012
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Golf Town 2013
Visions
Bed Bath Beyond
Winners Wal Mart Super Centre Reitmans
The Shoe Company
Town Shoes
Opa
Quiznos
Ardene
Press’d Sandwiches
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Bouclair
Petsmart‐ opened
Dollarama
Wine and Beyond
Tony Romas
Chatters
Stokes
Osh Kosh
Town Shoes
Tommy Gun’s
Jones New York
Binhs Nails
ORSFR Program Artificial Turf
Emerald Hills Retail
Concept Plans:
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Co op Gas Station
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Tim Horton’s
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RBC 
CIBC
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Subway
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Red Robin
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Sobeys 2013
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Centre in the Park Reflections Building
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Reflections: Draft Concept
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Target: Spring 2013
Sherwood Park Mall 40th Birthday
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Construction 2012-13: Opening 2013 Fire hall #6 location:
Bison Way (near Sherwood Drive and
Lakeland Drive)
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Transit Station ‐ Construction 2012‐13
Parking for 1200 vehicles
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Broadmoor Heritage Plaza Over 70,000 sq.ft retail
“Stepped” development
with water feature, patios
Access from Broadmoor
Blvd.
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http://www.strathcona.ca/departments/Economic_Develop
ment_and_Tourism/property-locator.aspx
Strathcona Community Hospital
Phase 1‐ completion 2013
Phase 2‐ expected to start late 2013 (subject to provincial budget approval)
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Thomas Consulting Retail Market Study ‐
Updating 2013
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Updating the Retail Market Study 2013
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Laurin Industrial Area
List pricing from $375,000 per acre to $525,000 per acre
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NE Anthony Henday Planning
 Eight interchanges
 Nine Flyovers
 Two River Structures
 47 Total Bridge Structures
 Completion date of 2016
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Anthony Henday Plans for SP
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Anthony Henday/ Sherwood Drive
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Lakeland Drive Construction
Industrial – Impact of Oil and Gas in Alberta
Indirect Impact of Oil and Gas Alberta
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Existing Industrial Base
 Canada’s largest hydrocarbon processing center home to 15 world scale facilities responsible for 43% of national basic chemical manufacturing
 Major center for – Petroleum Refining (422 Mbdp capacity)
– Bitumen Upgrading (255 Mbdp expanding to 400 Mbpd
capacity)
– Petrochemical Production (Ethylene, Styrene, Fertilizers)
– Natural Gas Fractionation and Processing
– A variety of other specialty products
 Approximately $1 billion in annual expenditure (excluding feedstocks)  7,500 full time direct employees
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Turn Around Activity
 Maintenance turn arounds at existing plant involve thousands of contractors and millions in local expenditures
– Agrium Redwater (2013)
– Shell (Annually starting 2013‐2015) – Suncor 2013
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Pipelines in Strathcona County
 We have over 2800 km of high pressure pipelines between 10” to 36” in diameter
 Our urban area of Sherwood Park (population of over 67,000) has 17 pipelines adjacent to residential areas
 Products: – Crude oil, condensate/diluents, natural gas, butane, ethane, hydrogen
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Pipelines and Terminal Activities
 Kinder Morgan‐ Expansion of terminal to support Trans‐
Mountain enhancement (recent update $5.4 B – 36” line)
 Enbridge Pipelines – Terminal and pipeline starting point for Northern Gateway project. New tanks proposed at Stonefell
(8‐12).Pipelines up North
 Interpipeline – Polaris diluent terminal and pipeline expansion
 Access Pipeline – 42” dilbit pipeline to add 350,000 bpd capacity (potential for future expansions)
 Keyra Energy – Diluent pipeline connecting their operation in Strathcona area and Fort Saskatchewan to the Heartland
 Trans Canada Grand Rapids Pipeline – Grand Rapids Pipeline Project and Tank Farm AIH. 24” Diluent and 42” Bitumen
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Upgrading Project Estimates
 Estimates on additions to upgrading capacity are based on the following assumptions regarding new projects or expansions to existing projects by 2030. New Upgraders
– North West Upgrading
150,000 bbl/day (new) 1st phase sanctioned
– Voyageur
200,000 bbl/day (new) under review
– Sasol GTL facility Proposed 48,000 bbl/day (further information later)
Expansions/Debottlenecking (*)
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Syncrude
Suncor
CNRL
Shell Scotford
Nexen/OPTI
100,000 bbl/day
100,000 bbl/day
100,000 bbl/day
85,000 bbl/day
50,000 bbl/day
(*) Notes increase in upgrading capacity beyond existing levels
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Spread between WTI – Brent‐ Western Canada Select . The “Crack”
“An even bigger concern for Canadian oil producers than the discount between WTI and Brent is the price differential between WTI and Western Canadian Select–the benchmark price for western Canadian oil exports to the U.S. It’s trading around $60 a barrel, a third less than WTI and 45 per cent lower than Brent.”
“Do the math on some 2 million barrels a day of heavily discounted oil exports and suddenly you’re talking about an enormous wealth transfer from Canadian oil producers to American refineries. (Note, the subsidy is pocketed by U.S. refiners, not motorists, who don’t see the Canadian discount when filling up at the pumps.) What if Canadian oil was getting world prices? At the current Brent‐Western Canadian Select spread of roughly $50 a barrel, you’re in the neighbourhood of $100‐million a day. That equates to foregone revenues of more than $35‐billion over the course of a year.”
Jeff Rubin (Article in Globe and Mail Monday Jan. 7, 2013)
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Shell Refinery
Shell Upgrader
Expansion One
Shell Chemicals
Construction
storage
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Sasol Update September 5
Optioned the site from Total. Future study required for 48,000 bpd facility. If built 5,000 construction jobs, 500 fulltime jobs.
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Project Timeline
FEED sanction on this project postponed. Louisiana GTL and
Cracker has received their FEED sanction. Alberta still in process
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Apps for understanding the Oil Sands
• The Facts on Oil Sands – There’s an app for that!
• Have you been looking for a better way to communicate facts, clear up misconceptions and emphasize benefits about Canada’s oil sands? Now, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is please to provide the information from their Oil Sands fact book in the form of a comprehensive, handy and always current smartphone app.
• The app is available for free download to Apple and BlackBerry devices. Downloading is easy. From your mobile device, simply click the links below to access the app or search “oil sands” or “CAPP” from the Apple or BlackBerry app stores.
• BlackBerry: http://bit.ly/Hhk7N5
• Apple: http://bit.ly/zwsRWi
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Tour of Alberta – Heartland Portion Sept. 4
 Strathcona is under consideration for start of the road race
 Tourism is $5.5 B in Alberta with over 92,600 direct jobs (2010)
Strathcona Summary
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Growth in the community 3.0% 2013
Labour shortages increasing
Turning into a regional centre.
New housing choices for 2013
Opportunity for new retail choices
Oil Sands related projects continuing but at a “cautionary level”
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““The most important benefit of population size and growth is the increase it brings to the stock of useful knowledge. Minds matter economically as much as, or more than, hands or mouths.”
Julian Simon
For more information, please contact:
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Gerry Gabinet, Director Economic Development & Tourism [email protected]

Randy Richards, Manager Commercial Development
[email protected]

Jordan Rumohr, Manager Industrial Development
[email protected]
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