MHCGB Hampshire Area National Championships Qualifying Show
Transcription
MHCGB Hampshire Area National Championships Qualifying Show
MHCGB Hampshire Area National Championships Qualifying Show 8th May 2016 New Park Showground, Brockenhurst, Hampshire, SO42 7QH Open to Miniature Horses, Standard and Miniature Shetlands You do not need to be a member to enter this show Show Enquiries: Mrs V Huddleston, 9 Hertsfield, Titchfield Common, Hampshire, PO14 4SE Tel 07887 715083, please keep telephone enquiries to between 6pm to 9pm or email: [email protected] Show Secretary: Mrs D Monckton, 7 Suffolk Drive, Chandlers Ford, Eastleigh, Hampshire, SO53 3HU This show is run under the rules of the MHCGB Copies of the MHCGB rules are available to non members on the day of the show or by post to: The President, MHCGB, Newclose Farm, Calf Fallow Lane, Norton, Stockton on tees, TS20 1PQ . SAE please. The judge’s decision is FINAL. The organisers shall not be responsible for any loss, injury, damage or death sustained by any exhibitor. The organisers reserve the right to cancel, alter or amalgamate any classes at any time. Classes with sufficient entries may be split at the discretion of the show manager. MHCGB and the organisers reserve the right to refuse entries without reason. All Driving Class exhibitors must have third party liability insurance, a copy of which must accompany entries. Sashes for 1st to 6th place in all classes Bridle rosettes to all class winners kindly provided by Mr Francis Mc Allan Rosettes to section Champions and Reserves Superb Gold, Silver and Bronze sashes to Supreme Miniature Horses kindly sponsored by Lionhearts Horse Show Superb Gold, Silver and Bronze sashes to Supreme Shetlands kindly sponsored by APHS London Counties Horse Show Best in Show blanket garland and lycra body suit kindly sponsored by Garlands Galore and Creature Comforts Photographer: Simply Events Photography Qualifiers for: MHCGB National Championships Missina Showcase of Champions IMHPS Miniature HOYS Royal London Show BPS Cream of the Crop Championships OTT Championships Entry fee £10.00 per class - all entries received after 1st May 2016 £15 per class Entries on the day £15.00 Entries close 1st May 2016 Any horse/pony entered prior to 1st May will NOT be charged late entry fee for additional classes entered on the day PLEASE NOTE CASH ONLY ON THE DAY No entries accepted without payment Wishing you an enjoyable day’s showing Ring 1 - 9.00am start - Judge: Mr Francis Mc Allan Open to Miniature Horses only THE PAMPERED PONY SECTION - open to horses not exc 38” - This class is NOT judged on conformation but on turnout and condition - Horse must be handled by the owner - Only one horse per owner can qualify. Class 1 THE PAMPERED PONY Yearling - any sex Class 2 THE PAMPERED PONY 2 and 3 year old - any sex Class 3 THE PAMPERED PONY 4yrs plus - any sex THE PAMPERED PONY CHAMPIONSHIP is open to 1st & 2nd placed horses from classes 1 to 3. Champion and Reserve qualify for the Pampered Pony final at The MHCGB Grand Championship Show 27th, 28th and 29th August Oakridge Arena, Newark. Kindly sponsored by Mark Barton Farrier Classes 4 to 6 open to horses not exceeding 34” at maturity Class 4. Category A Yearling Class 5. Category A 2 and 3 year old Class 6. Category A Stallion, Mare or Gelding - four years and over Classes 7 to 9 open to horses expected to exceed 34” but not 38” at maturity Class 7. Category B Yearling Class 8. Category B 2 and 3 year old Class 9. Category B Stallion, Mare or Gelding - four years and over Championship open to 1st & 2nd placed horses from classes 4 to 9 Kindly sponsored Archer Finishing Limited 01489 877964 Scaled Down Show Horse Section open to horses not exceeding 38” except Ultra Mini Class 10. Scaled down Show Hunter - any age and sex Class 11. Scaled down Show Hack - any age and sex Class 12. Scaled down Show Cob - any age and sex Class 13. Scaled down Riding Horse - any age and sex Class 14. Best Show Gelding - any age Class 15. Ultra Mini - open to horses not expecting to exceed 30” at maturity - any age and sex Championship open to 1st & 2nd placed horses from classes 10 to 15 Silver Salver kindly sponsored by Rosemont Miniature Horses Lunch Break (afternoon classes not before 1pm) Open to horses not exceeding 38” - to be judged on 80% colour, 20% conformation Class 16. Spotted - any age or sex - appaloosa, pintaloosa Class 17. Broken - any age or sex - pinto, piebald, skewbald Class 18. Solid colour - any age or sex - bay, chestnut, grey, black, brown Class 19. Any other colour - any age or sex - silvers, cremello, buckskin, palomino, perlino, etc CLASS 19 IS A QUALIFIER FOR THE BPS CREAM OF THE CROP CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES 2016 Championship open to 1st & 2nd placed horses from classes 16 to 19 Kindly sponsored by Lucy Bartlett IMHPS MHOYS QUALIFIERS 2016 - Open to miniature horses up to 38” 1st to 3rd in classes 20 to 26 qualify for MHOYS 2016 Class 20. Yearling Class 21. 2 and 3 year old Class 22. 4 years and over Mares and Geldings Class 23. 4 year and over Stallions Class 24. Lightweight type - any age and sex Class 25. Middleweight type - any age and sex Class 26. Heavyweight type - any age and sex (including Shetlands up to 38”) Championship open to 1st & 2nd placed horses from classes 20 to 26 Kindly sponsored by Frasiers Stud SUPREME GOLD, SILVER AND BRONZE MINIATURE HORSE CHAMPIONSHIP Superior sashes kindly sponsored by Lionhearts Horse Shows - www.lionhearts.co.uk/ Class 60. Open driving class - Open to Miniature Horses, Miniature and Standard Shetlands The winner qualifies for the Missina Showcase of Champions Driving Supreme to be held at MHCGB Grand Championship Show 27th, 28th and 29th August 2016 at Oakridge Arena, Newark. WINNER TO GO STRAIGHT INTO BEST IN SHOW All driving class exhibitors must have third party liability insurance, a copy of which must accompany entries. *BEST IN SHOW* Gold, Silver and Bronze Miniature Horse Supreme Champion and Gold, Silver and Bronze Shetland Supreme Champion to compete Blanket garland kindly sponsored by Garlands Galore by Denise Mitchell Lycra body suit kindly sponsored by Creature Comforts Ring 2 - 9.00am start - Judge: Ms Abi Ardern Smith Classes 31 to 44 open to Miniature Horses, Miniature Shetlands and Standard Shetlands FUN CLASSES ARE NOT ELLIGABLE FOR SUPREME Class 31. Pretty Filly / Mare Class 32. Handsome Gelding Class 33. Stunning Colts / Stallion Class 34. Best Mane and Tail - natural and trimmed - any age or sex Class 35. Young Handler - 15 years and under Class 36. Best Movement - any age or sex Class 37. Newcomers and Novice - any age or sex - not to have won a 1st prior to 2016 Class 38. Best Home Produced / Amateur - not to have been professionally shown or produced since 2014 Class 39. Best Driving Type - any age or sex Class 40. Veteran 15 yrs and over - any age or sex Class 41. Solid Colour - any age or sex Class 42. Coloured - any age or sex Class 43. Spotted - any age or sex Class 44. Dilute Colours - any age or sex - silvers, cremello, buckskin, palomino, perlino, etc CLASS 44 IS A QUALIFIER FOR THE BPS CREAM OF THE CROP CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES 2016. Championship open to 1st and 2nd placed from classes 31 to 44 Kindly sponsored by Mandy Williams Ring 2 - Not before 1pm start - Judge: Mrs Pat Slade Classes 45 to 56 open to Miniature Shetlands and Standard Shetlands Only Miniature Shetlands – not to exceed 34” in height 1st to 3rd in classes 45 to 50 qualify for MHOYS 2016 Class 45. Yearling - colt, filly or gelding Class 46. 2 and 3 year old - colt, filly or gelding Class 47. Mares and Geldings - 4 years and over (may split if enough entries) Class 48. Stallions - 4 years and over Class 49. Solid Colour - any age or sex Class 50. Broken Colour - any age or sex Championship open to 1st & 2nd placed horses from classes 45 to 50 Kindly sponsored by Blenheim Shetland Pony Stud Standard Shetlands – not to exceed 42” in height 1st to 3rd in classes 51 to 56 qualify for MHOYS 2016 Class 51. Yearling - colt, filly or gelding Class 52. 2 and 3 year old - colt, filly or gelding Class 53. Mares and Geldings - 4 years and over (may split if enough entries) Class 54. Stallions - 4 years and over Class 55. Solid Colour - any age or sex Class 56. Broken Colour - any age or sex Championship open to 1st & 2nd placed horses from classes 51 to 56 Kindly sponsored by Clare Watson for the Mermaid Shetland Championship Cup SUPREME GOLD, SILVER AND BRONZE SHETLAND CHAMPIONSHIP Superior sashes kindly sponsored by APHS London Counties Horse Show www.Lynnusauk.wix.com/aphs Open to the Miniature and the Standard Shetland Champion and Reserve Champion Class 60. Open driving class - Open to Miniature Horses, Miniature and Standard Shetlands The winner qualifies for the Missina Showcase of Champions Driving Supreme to be held at MHCGB Grand Championship Show 27 th, 28th and 29th August 2016 at Oakridge Arena, Newark. WINNER TO GO STRAIGHT INTO BEST IN SHOW All driving class exhibitors must have third party liability insurance, a copy of which must accompany entries. *BEST IN SHOW* Gold, Silver and Bronze Miniature Horse Supreme Champion and Gold, Silver and Bronze Shetland Supreme Champion to compete Blanket garland kindly sponsored by Garlands Galore by Denise Mitchell Lycra body suit kindly sponsored by Creature Comforts V7 The British Palomino Society are launching an exciting new championship series open to all horses whom have a cream diluted colour i.e. cremello, buckskin, palomino, lemon and white, perlino, palomino spotted, etc. It will be known as the ‘BPS Cream of the Crop Championship’. The series and final will be open to all; there is no need for membership or registration with the BPS. QUALIFYING CARDS TO BE PESENTED IN THE RING Please note that true Duns and Haflingers are not eligible as they are not a cream dilute. THE 2 HIGHEST PLACED CREAM DILUTES WILL QUALIFY FOR THE FINALS OF THE ‘BPS CREAM OF THE CROP SERIES’ AT THE BPS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS, HELD ON 10TH JULY 2016 AT THREE COUNTIES SHOWGROUND. THE QUALIFIERS AND FINAL ARE OPEN TO NON-MEMBERS/MEMBERS, REGISTERED/UNREGISTERED Please see www.thebritishpalominosociety.co.uk or email [email protected] for more information --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All MHCGB and IMHPS class winners qualify for the Missina Showcase of Champions Best of the Best Class with £500 to the winner ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- All classes are qualifiers for the International Showing Society Royal London show th 11 to 14 August 2016 at Onley Grounds Equestrian Centre, Nr Rugby, CV23 8AJ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------- Qualifier for the MHCGB National Championship Show August 27th 28th and 29th @ Oakridge Arena, Newark NG23 7NZ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------- 1st, 2nd and 3rd in IMHPS section and both Shetland sections qualify for Miniature Horse of the Year Show October 1st and 2nd 2016 Keysoe Equestrian Church Rd, Keysoe MK44 2JP All exhibitors at MHOYS must be registered with IMHPS and to be owned by a current members ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------The two highest placed 1, 2 and 3 year olds in youngstock classes and the highest placed 1, 2 and 3 year old in open classes will qualify for the OTT Championships to be held 30th October at The Onley Grounds Equestrian Centre, Ruby - ENTREY TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP IS BY QUALIFICATION ONLY The qualifying card must be returned to OTT within 21 days of qualifying. The OTT (One, Two & Three Year Old) Championship Show is a unique Championship Show that is brand new this season, open to 1, 2 & 3 years olds of all breeds, types, including partbreds, and unregistered horses. All classes will be split into age groups (1, 2 & 3 year olds), with championships for each breed and type, all champions will then stand forward for the OTT Youngstock Supreme Championship. All this coupled with £1,000 in prize money has proved very exciting amongst the showing community. Please see Facebook OTT Championship Show Group or email: [email protected] for information ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ My very grateful thanks to the following people without whom this show would not be possible. Show Secretary: Mrs Denise Monckton Ring 1 judge: Mr Francis Mc Allan Ring 2 judges: Ms Abi Ardern Smith and Mrs Pat Slade Ring 1 steward: Mr Lee Mingay Ring 2 steward: First Aid: Mr Graham Parish And of course all of the very generous sponsors. This is the first time I have run a show, I may have made mistakes, for which I apologise, please don't get angry, I'm running this show for you so please tell me where improvements can be made. Vera Huddleston SHOW RULES 2016. REGULATIONS 1. Horses must be entered in the correct class, observing the correct age. Category A Miniature Horses must not exceed 34” in height at maturity, measured from the last hairs of the mane at the base of the neck. Category B Horses exceed 34” and not exceed 38” at maturity. 2. Handlers must be suitably turned out. Hats, gloves, boots and jackets are required. 3. The judges’ decision is final. 4. Exhibitors are required to withdraw from a class if the judge has an interest in his or her exhibit. For the purposes of this rule, a judge has an interest in an exhibit if he/she has bred, owned, trained or has a financial interest in it. 5. Any horse acting in an unruly manner will be excused from the ring by the judge or steward for safety reasons. 6. The names of exhibits will not be made known to the judge until after the class. Exhibitors will be issued with a number for each horse that must be displayed whilst that horse is in the ring. 7. Cruelty, abuse or inhumane treatment of any horse will not be tolerated by show management and the offender will be barred for the duration of the show. 8. Conduct by an exhibitor, trainer or owner deemed unsportsmanlike, abusive or d etrimental will not be tolerated the MHCGB, including but not limited or, threatening, abusive or intimidating conduct (physical, verbal or written) toward any show official or fellow exhibitor. Any person guilty of such conduct should be reported immediately to the show management. The management will suspend the offender for the duration of the show. Any person accused of unseemly behavior may appeal his/her case to the council of the association which will render a decision. If found guilty such a person may be banned from further participation in Club events and a decision will be published in the official publication of the Club. 9. Exhibitors are requested not to converse with the judge unless initiated by the judge. 10. Late arrivals will not be admitted to the ring once the gate has closed or the class has commenced. Objections must be made in writing with a £80 cash fee to the show Management Team wi t h in o n e h ou r after the alleged incident. The fee will be returned to the protester in the event the protest is sustained. If the protest is not sustained the fee shall be forfeited. Any protests shall be adjudicated by a protest committee of three show officials not involved with the incident/dispute. The show protest committee shall meet promptly and adjudicate the issue, make effective its decision upon the parties in interest and report its determination to all parties. A show protest committee may disqualify a competitor and or his/her entries for the duration of the show. The protest committees’ decision is FINAL. 11. Any member/exhibitor issuing a dishonored cheque, or failing to pay any obligation owed to the MHCGB or an MHCGB approved show shall be withdrawn all member privileges and shall be barred from further MHCGB events until the debt is discharged in full. All debts to the MHCGB shall be paid within 15 days. Any suspensions/denial of privileges shall terminate upon full payment of the obligation due. 12. Exhibitors at the MHCGB Hampshire Area Show do not need to be a current member of the MHCGB but all exhibitors must be fully paid up members of the MHCGB to compete at the MHCGB National Championships Show. The MHCGB Directors reserve the right to refuse membership without providing reasons. Membership runs from January to December. 13. The MHCGB Show Management Team reserves the right to refuse any entry to an MHCGB show without providing reasons. 14. The MHCGB Show Management Team reserves the right to ask any individual/s to leave a showground holding an MHCGB approved show without providing reasons. PRESENTATION FOR SHOWING. The permissible methods for showing are: a. Freshly clipped b. Clipped with new coat established so long as the horse is neat, healthy and well presented Manes and tails are natural & unplaited (with the exception of performance classes). Pulling or shortening of the mane is permissible). A bridle path may be clipped into the mane to enhance the outline of the horse. Tails are to be trimmed clear of the ground. Alteration of the natural colour of the horse is not allowed, however, subtle use of makeup to enhance a natural colour is allowed. Horses are to be shown not stretched, which means all four feet are flat on the ground and at least one front and one rear cannon bone remain perpendicular to the ground - stretched horses to be penalised after the initial warning by the judge in each class. It is permissible to hand set the horse. General preparation and presentation is at the discretion of the owner, but the MHCGB wishes to promote the horse as being shown at its best visual and health advantage to portray the breed as one of beauty, intelligence and gentleness. NOTE: ‘circus’ or ‘cute’ type presentation is not relevant in any class other than the costume/fancy dress class. MHCGB SHOWING STYLE Horses are to enter the ring, individually in catalogue order, at a walk clockwise on a loose lead to a designated point marked by a cone approximately 20 feet from the gate and then proceed at a trot past the judge/s. Judging will begin at the cone. Line up horses head to tail along the ringside, teeth and testicles are checked for correctness. The judge then re takes his/her position in the centre of the ring. From line-up, competitors walk to judge and trot past, back to the end of line, to assess straightness of movement. Horse are then posed nose to tail approx. 15 feet from the edge of the ring and with sufficient distance between to allow judges to assess horses from all sides. Horses are assessed individually in the nose to tail line up. The final lineup is then called in and rosettes are awarded. Judges are asked to discourage exhibitors from sitting, squatting, kneeling in front of horses (with the exception of showing weanlings). If, after a warning is given, exhibitors may be penalised. The horses are judged on:1. 2. 3. 4. 5. TYPE: The horse must possess horse like qualities in a smaller size and proportion. Pony like traits are not desirable in the modern miniature horse. CONFORMATION: Consider the correctness of structure and conformation. Identify any faults and weaknesses. QUALITY: Which includes the harmony and balance of body parts, the refinement and density of bone in the legs and the smoothness of muscling. WAY OF GOING: Perhaps meriting a higher consideration. Not just the quality of movement but the technical correctness of the stride, articulation of the joints, elevation and impulsion. PRESENCE. CHAMPIONSHIPS The first and second places from the applicable classes are called to the championship. First placed horses form the front line; second placed horses stand behind the winner of their class. Horses are asked to walk/trot out at the discretion of the judge. The horses are posed for the judge to reassess. Champion and Reserve champion are selected. RULES FOR EACH BREED/TYPE SECTION C a te go r y A cl as s e s are open to horses not exceeding 34” at maturity (measured at the last hairs of the mane). Category B classes are open to horses expected to mature at a height exceeding 34” but not exceeding 38”. Scaled D own S how H orse classes are open to horses not exceeding 38” and is judged on the horse most resembling that specified type in miniature. SPECIALITY HALTER CLASS – COLOUR CLASSES These classes are judged on 80% colour, 20% conformation. Horses not to exceed 38” Horses are walked into the arena and then asked to turn and walk in the opposite direction. Horses are then lined nose to tail in rows, allowing space for the judge to pass between each horse to assess. The horses are trotted at the discretion of the judge. The following classes are available:Spotted i.e.; appaloosa, pintaloosa Broken colour i.e.; pinto, piebald, skewbald Solid i.e.; bay, chestnut, grey, black, brown. Any other colour i.e.; silvers palominos, buckskin, gruella, roan etc. DRIVING CLASS Horses are to be serviceably sound and must be three years old or older. Drivers should strive to present an appropriate turnout that conforms to the class entered. Suggested attire: - Gentlemen, hat, jacket, tie, trousers, gloves & ladies tailored suite, skirt and blouse or evening dress (where appropriate) hat and gloves. Whips must be carried at all times, failure will result in disqualification. Headers are acceptable. PAMPERED PONY QUALIYER Open to horses not exc 38”, must be shown by the owner. Each owner may only qualify one horse. This class is NOT judged on conformation but on the general condition and turnout of the horse. We are looking for the ultimate Pampered Pony! The Champion and Reserve will qualify to compete in the PAMPERED PONY SUPREME at The Grand Championship Show. MHCGB Code of conduct 2015 The Miniature Horse Club of Great Britain would like to remind members and competitors of the following;1. Participants should conduct themselves at all times in an appropriate fashion and should display good manners and respect towards other participants, show officials and to the judge(s). 2. An exhibitor always loses with grace, always considers fair play, honesty, and shows all other exhibitors courtesy. 3. An exhibitor will never use personal behavior for receiving advantages from a judge. 4. No person is permitted to enter the ring and challenge a judge’s decision. 5. MHCGB reserve the right to refuse Entries without explanation. 6. Please be aware those who are stabling over at our events all stables will be checked by our Welfare Officer at close of show any horses found to be without water will be reported and water will be offered. MHCGB work on the 5 Freedoms : Freedom from hunger and thirst. Freedom from discomfort. Freedom from pain, injury or disease. Freedom to express normal behavior. Freedom from fear and distress. There is a specific section within the AMHA Show Rules Code of Conduct, giving general guidelines on participation in show competitions. AMHA Official Rule Book, 2012- page 91. GR- 045 G. Conduct by an exhibitor, trainer, owner, or immediate family member of an unsportsmanlike, abusive, or detrimental nature will not be tolerated by the show management, including but not limited to threatening, abusive, or intimidating conduct, physical, verbal or written, toward any individual or show official. Any person(s) guilty of such conduct should be reported immediately to management by the judge, steward, or show committee member. The show management must suspend the offender for the duration of that show. Any person accused of such unseemly behaviour may appeal his/her case to the Board of Directors, which shall render a decision. If found guilty, such a person may be barred from future participation in AMHA show activity. The Board’s decision will be published in the official AMHA publication. H. Exhibitors and/or owners may not protest to the judge directly or by inference, the placing of any horse. Any person(s) found guilty by show management of such conduct will be excused from the show and forfeit any awards received at that show, and the right to show in any additional classes at the show. No entry fees will be returned. (Amended 11-00, effective 01-02) (Amended 12-09, effective 01-10)Whilst the Miniature Horse Club of Great Britain believes that the overwhelming majority of people taking part in Miniature Horse Shows do so in a responsible and sportsmanlike manner, it is concerned at the increasing number of complaints which it has received about incidents of abuse, in particular through the negative use of social media. No-one should be subject to intimidation or made to feel alarmed or distressed or put in fear of reprisal. Harassment is a criminal offence. To that end the MHCGB adopts a zero tolerance towards all type of harassment activity. Harassment may be defined as causing alarm, distress and anxiety and fear of physical violence or other threat, offensive statements, verbal abuse and threats. Conduct may include speech, obstruction and so on. As such conduct may involve a criminal offence the police may be involved and it may be that the MHCGB will defer any action pending the outcome of such investigation and/or prosecution. It goes without saying that the Club expects courtesy and co-operation to be shown towards all staff and organisers at any MHCGB event. Whilst the pressures and tensions which arise at competitive level are understood, any aggression or abuse towards those who are simply undertaking their jobs for the benefit and interest of the exhibitor/competitor and the audience cannot be tolerated. Anyone who is reported to an MHCGBDirector or show official, and is found to have shown any form of harassment, aggression, verbal abuse, threats, etc, at an MHCGB event, will be required to leave the venue, forfeit any prizes won and entry fees standing, and be issued with a written warning about such conduct. Further breaches of the MHCGB code of conduct will be referred to the Directors for disciplinary action. Any person not in good standing with The AMHAwill be refused membership to MHCGB. The welfare of all Miniature Horses competing is of paramount importance any person found to be ill treating their Horses will be removed from the venue and membership suspended until an enquiry has taken place. Over recent years, there has been a rapid growth in the use of social media as a form of instant communication and there is a need for those who use Facebook, blogs and chat rooms etc to understand their responsibilities. THINK BEFORE YOU POST! Use of Social Media - Be Aware of Liability, Be Accurate, Respect Others, Respect Your Audience You are responsible for what you post on your own site and on the sites of others. Individual bloggers have been held liable for commentary deemed to be copyright infringement, defamatory, proprietary, libelous, or obscene (as defined by the courts). Be sure that what you post today will not come back to haunt you. Make sure that you have all the facts before you post. It’s better to verify information with a source first than to have to post a correction or retraction later. You are more likely to achieve your goals or sway others to your beliefs if you are constructive and respectful while discussing a bad experience or disagreeing with a concept or person. Don’t use personal insults, obscenity; also show proper consideration for others’ privacy and for topics that may be considered sensitive. Users are free to discuss topics and disagree with one another, but be respectful of others’ opinions. You are more likely to