Pittsburgh Auto Outlook

Covering Second Quarter 2012
Volume 21, Number 3
Pittsburgh Auto Outlook
Sponsored by: Greater Pittsburgh Automobile Dealers Association
FORECAST
Area Market Gains Strength in Second Quarter
Increases likely to continue into 2013
On balance, the Pittsburgh Area new retail light vehicle market had a
pretty good first half of 2012, with area registrations increasing 5.1%
versus a year earlier. And the positive momentum is likely to continue
for the second half of the year as well, with the market almost certain
to move higher versus 2011, when sales were held back due to the
Japanese earthquake and tsunami.
What’s lies ahead for 2013? Another increase is likely, but at this
point, it looks like the rate of increase is likely to ease. Auto Outlook
is currently projecting a 6.1% improvement for 2013, below the 7.9%
increase expected for this year.
Why do we think the pace of the recovery will ease somewhat next
year? Here are the three primary reasons. First, economic growth is
expected to remain sluggish, as likely fiscal tightening by the Federal
government will limit growth, and the European financial crisis is likely
to put a damper on the global economy. Second, the unemployment
rate is expected to remain relatively high, with slim gains in employment. And third, although households have made headway in reducing debt, there is still a lot of work to do in curing ailing balance
sheets, which are still on the mend following the financial crisis.
At this point, it seems highly unlikely that these events will derail the
new vehicle market recovery. Indeed, our basic outlook has remained
intact since the recession hit in 2008 and 2009: the market will remain on its long term improvement path, but the recovery will take
longer and proceed much more slowly than the 2009 collapse, which
hit hard and fast.
5 Key Market Trends
1. Greater Pittsburgh area new retail light vehicle registrations
increased 5.1% in the first half of 2012 versus a year earlier, below the 9.9% improvement in the Nation.
2. Auto Outlook projects that the area new vehicle market will
improve 7.9% for all of this year, with an increase likely in
2013 as well. The uptick next year would mark the fourth
consecutive annual increase.
3. Higher fuel prices earlier this year and many key new vehicle
introductions have given a boost to car sales in the area.
New retail car registrations were up 6.6% in the first half of
‘12 and market share increased.
4. Among the top 25 selling brands, Chrysler, Jeep, Toyota,
Dodge (including Ram), and BMW have had the largest increases so far this year. Area registrations for each of the
five brands were up more than 15%.
5. Chevrolet, Subaru, Jeep, and Kia are relatively strong sellers
in the area market. Vehicle registrations for the four brands
easily exceed expected levels, which are calculated from
National market share (see page 7 for full analysis).
Annual Trend in Area Market
Market Summary
New light vehicle registrations
160,000
140,000
146,500
138,000
120,000
100,000
127,936
112,431
117,721
YTD '12
% Chg.
thru June '11 to '12
68,425
5.1%
Mkt. Share
YTD '12
0.0%
Car
Light Truck
31,180
33,925
33,240
35,185
6.6%
3.7%
48.6%
51.4%
Detroit Three
European
Japanese
Korean
29,785
4,190
22,230
8,900
31,270
4,773
23,463
8,919
5.0%
13.9%
5.5%
0.2%
45.7%
7.0%
34.3%
13.0%
104,235
80,000
Market is predicted to
improve 7.9% in 2012.
60,000
40,000
TOTAL
YTD '11
thru June
65,105
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the area
from 2008 thru 2011, and Auto Outlook’s projections for 2012 and 2013.
Detroit Three consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford and Chrysler.
Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive.
Page 2
Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook
MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS
Area Market Up 8.8% in 2nd Quarter vs. 13.7% Increase in U.S.
QUARTERLY TREND
QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE
Percent Change in New Vehicle Market
Area and U.S.
Five Years of Second Quarter Results
in Area Market
50000
16.0%
14.0%
10.0%
40000
On a percentage
change basis, the area
market trailed the U.S.
in the Second Quarter.
Area
New retail light vehicle registrations
% change versus year earlier
12.0%
U.S.
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
Area
U.S.
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
2.0%
0.0%
The market was up
by over 9,000 units
in the Second
Quarter of this year
versus 2009.
45000
5000
Q3 '11
1.6%
3.7%
Q4 '11
14.1%
8.0%
Q1 '12
1.0%
5.8%
Q2 '12
8.8%
13.7%
0
Regs.
Q2 '08
Q2 '09
Q2 '10
Q2 '11
Q2 '12
33006
27508
31266
33874
36869
Second quarter registrations during past five years
Pittsburgh Auto Outlook
Covering Second Quarter 2012
Published by:
Auto Outlook, Inc.
5 Great Valley Parkway
Malvern, PA 19355
Phone: 800-206-0102
EMail: [email protected]
Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz
Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or
in part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook,
Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to Pittsburgh Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the Greater Pittsburgh Automobile Dealers Association.
ANSWERS DRIVE RESULTS.
You need insights into your marketplace to make the best
decisions to maximize profits. The AutoCount® Dealer
Report analyzes full details on new and used competitive
dealer market share, down to specific areas you define.
You bring the questions. We’ll bring the answers.
Experian Automotive is the data provider for Auto Outlook.
Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projections presented in
Pittsburgh Auto Outlook. Consequently, Auto Outlook, Inc. is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of Pittsburgh Auto Outlook.
Explanation of Data
Data presented in Auto Outlook measures new vehicle registrations in the Pittsburgh Area. Monthly recording of registrations
occurs when the data is processed by PennDOT.
Covering Second Quarter 2012
Page 3
MARKET TRACKER: BRAND MARKET SHARE
MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES
European Brands Are Up
Green Vehicle Share Holds Steady
Change in Area Market Share
YTD 2012 thru June vs. YTD 2011
Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share
(includes hybrid and electric vehicles)
1.8
European
European
share is up 0.6
of a point so
far this year.
Japanese
1.4
1.2
0.2
1.0
0.8
0.0
Detroit Three
Trendline
1.6
0.6
Alternative powertrain market share has
trended higher during the past three years.
0.6
0.4
Korean -0.7
0.2
0.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
Q3
'09
1.0
Change in market share
The graph above shows the change in year-to-date market share
for four primary brand segments.
Q4
'09
Q1
'10
Q2
'10
Q3
'10
Q4
'10
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the
area. The line shows market share trend over the past 12 quarters.
MARKET TRACKER - SEGMENTS
Small Car Shares Moves Higher in Area and U.S.
Small Car
Change in Segment
Market Share
YTD 2012 thru June
vs.
YTD 2011 thru June
Compact SUV
Pittsburgh Area and
U.S. Markets
Luxury and Sports Car
Typical models in segments:
Small Car: Hyundai Elantra
Mid Size & Large Car: Toyota Camry
Luxury & Sports Car: BMW 3-Series
Pickup: Ford F-Series
Van: Honda Odyssey
Compact SUV: Jeep Liberty
Mid Size SUV: Jeep Grand Cherokee
Full Size SUV: Chevrolet Tahoe
Luxury SUV: Lexus RX
Pickup
Small Car market share
increased in both the area
and U.S. markets.
Van
Mid Size and Large Car
Luxury SUV
Area
US
Full Size SUV
Mid Size SUV
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Change in market share
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Page 4
Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook
Brand Registrations Report
Greater Pittsburgh Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations
TOTAL
Second Quarter
Registrations
Market Share (%)
2Q 2011 2Q 2012 % change 2Q 2011 2Q 2012 Change
33,874
36,869
8.8
YTD thru June
Registrations
Market Share (%)
YTD '11
YTD '12 % change
YTD '11
YTD '12 Change
65,105
68,425
5.1
Cars
Light Trucks
16,934
16,940
18,681
18,188
10.3
7.4
50.0
50.0
50.7
49.3
0.7
-0.7
31,180
33,925
33,240
35,185
6.6
3.7
47.9
52.1
48.6
51.4
0.7
-0.7
Domestic Brands
European Brands
Japanese Brands
Korean Brands
15,251
2,334
11,372
4,917
16,284
2,684
12,859
5,042
6.8
15.0
13.1
2.5
45.0
6.9
33.6
14.5
44.2
7.3
34.9
13.7
-0.8
0.4
1.3
-0.8
29,785
4,190
22,230
8,900
31,270
4,773
23,463
8,919
5.0
13.9
5.5
0.2
45.7
6.4
34.1
13.7
45.7
7.0
34.3
13.0
0.0
0.6
0.2
-0.7
Acura
347
354
2.0
Audi
202
217
7.4
BMW
420
492
17.1
Buick
571
587
2.8
Cadillac
467
414
-11.3
Chevrolet
4,747
4,852
2.2
Chrysler
510
790
54.9
Dodge (incl. Ram)
1,494
1,831
22.6
Fiat
1
142
Ford
4,497
4,397
-2.2
GMC
1,152
1,139
-1.1
Honda
3,134
3,655
16.6
Hyundai
2,543
2,626
3.3
Infiniti
132
202
53.0
Jaguar
19
25
31.6
Jeep
1,549
2,023
30.6
Kia
2,374
2,416
1.8
Land Rover
77
89
15.6
Lexus
279
281
0.7
Lincoln
257
246
-4.3
Mazda
642
643
0.2
Mercedes
434
437
0.7
MINI
106
115
8.5
Mitsubishi
208
158
-24.0
Nissan
2,084
1,896
-9.0
Porsche
50
64
28.0
Saab
19
5
-73.7
smart
11
19
72.7
Subaru
1,759
1,837
4.4
Suzuki
327
387
18.3
Toyota/Scion
2,460
3,446
40.1
Volkswagen
826
902
9.2
Volvo
152
151
-0.7
Other
24
31
29.2
Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive
1.0
0.6
1.2
1.7
1.4
14.0
1.5
4.4
0.0
13.3
3.4
9.3
7.5
0.4
0.1
4.6
7.0
0.2
0.8
0.8
1.9
1.3
0.3
0.6
6.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
5.2
1.0
7.3
2.4
0.4
0.1
1.0
0.6
1.3
1.6
1.1
13.2
2.1
5.0
0.4
11.9
3.1
9.9
7.1
0.5
0.1
5.5
6.6
0.2
0.8
0.7
1.7
1.2
0.3
0.4
5.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
5.0
1.0
9.3
2.4
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
-1.4
-0.3
0.6
-0.4
0.1
0.0
0.9
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-1.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
638
371
782
1,111
1,031
9,705
909
2,891
1
8,298
2,438
6,150
4,588
277
31
2,828
4,312
144
529
516
1,080
842
174
399
4,318
91
51
16
3,235
672
4,932
1,362
293
90
583
414
903
1,050
883
9,390
1,372
3,458
239
8,526
2,307
6,299
4,529
323
31
3,824
4,390
164
542
455
1,150
815
196
327
3,914
100
8
29
3,519
703
6,102
1,544
284
52
-8.6
11.6
15.5
-5.5
-14.4
-3.2
50.9
19.6
1.0
0.6
1.2
1.7
1.6
14.9
1.4
4.4
0.0
12.7
3.7
9.4
7.0
0.4
0.0
4.3
6.6
0.2
0.8
0.8
1.7
1.3
0.3
0.6
6.6
0.1
0.1
0.0
5.0
1.0
7.6
2.1
0.5
0.1
0.9
0.6
1.3
1.5
1.3
13.7
2.0
5.1
0.3
12.5
3.4
9.2
6.6
0.5
0.0
5.6
6.4
0.2
0.8
0.7
1.7
1.2
0.3
0.5
5.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
5.1
1.0
8.9
2.3
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-1.2
0.6
0.7
0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
0.1
0.0
1.3
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.9
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.3
0.2
-0.1
0.0
2.7
-5.4
2.4
-1.3
16.6
0.0
35.2
1.8
13.9
2.5
-11.8
6.5
-3.2
12.6
-18.0
-9.4
9.9
-84.3
81.3
8.8
4.6
23.7
13.4
-3.1
-42.2
The table above shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the Greater Pittsburgh Area market. Figures are shown for the
Second Quarters of 2011 and 2012, and year-to-date figures for 2011 and 2012. The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded yellow.
Covering Second Quarter 2012
Page 5
BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE
Chrysler Posts Largest Gain So Far This Year vs. 2011
Toyota new retail registrations improve 29.7% from First to Second Quarter of this year
The graph below provides a quick snapshot of brand sales performance in the area market. For the top 20 selling brands, it shows the percent change
in new retail light vehicle registrations during the first six months of this year versus the same period a year earlier, and the change from the First
Quarter of 2012 to the Second Quarter. Brands are shown from top to bottom based on the year-to-date percent change.
Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive.
Percent Change in Area New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (Top 20 Selling Brands)
YTD 2012 thru June vs. YTD 2011 and Second Quarter 2012 vs. First Quarter 2012
Chrysler
Jeep
35.2%
12.3%
23.7%
Toyota/Scion
Dodge
15.5%
19.7%
13.4%
Volkswagen
40.5%
8.8%
9.2%
Subaru
6.5%
Mazda
26.8%
4.6%
Suzuki
Ford
2.7%
Honda
2.4%
22.5%
6.5%
Chrysler had the largest gain during the
first half of 2012. Improving supplies
helped Toyota post a 29.7% gain from the
First to the Second Quarter of this year.
38.2%
1.8%
Kia
22.4%
-1.3%
Hyundai
Mercedes
-3.2%
Chevrolet
-3.2%
GMC
-5.4%
-2.5%
Buick
-5.5%
Nissan
29.7%
19.6%
12.5%
BMW
Acura
50.9%
35.7%
38.0%
15.6%
YTD '12 vs. YTD '11
2Q '12 vs. 1Q '12
6.9%
26.8%
-8.6%
54.6%
-9.4%
-6.0%
Cadillac -14.4%
-11.7%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Page 6
Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook
BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO
Chevrolet is Area Car Market Share Leader
Ford leads for light trucks; Jeep market share moves higher
The two graphs below show market share for the top ten car and light truck brands for the first six months of 2011 and 2012. Brands are shown from
left to right on each graph based on first half 2012 market share.
Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive.
Brand Market Share in Area Car Market - YTD 2011 and YTD 2012, thru June
Top Ten Brands only
18.0%
Chevrolet is the best selling brand in the area
car market. Toyota, Kia, and Subaru have
posted big gains this year.
16.0%
14.0%
YTD '11
YTD '12
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Chevrolet
Hyundai
Honda
Toyota/Scion
Subaru
Ford
Kia
Nissan
Volkswagen
Dodge
YTD '11
16.1%
11.5%
10.1%
6.9%
7.3%
9.0%
6.4%
6.5%
3.7%
2.2%
YTD '12
14.7%
10.7%
8.9%
8.6%
8.3%
8.2%
7.7%
5.1%
4.1%
2.8%
Brand Market Share in Area Light Truck Market - YTD 2011 and YTD 2012, thru June
Top Ten Brands only
18.0%
16.0%
Ford is the area light truck leader, while Jeep,
Toyota, and Dodge (including Ram) market
shares have moved higher in 2012.
14.0%
YTD '11
YTD '12
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Ford
Chevrolet
Jeep
Honda
Toyota/Scion
Dodge
GMC
Nissan
Kia
Hyundai
YTD '11
15.3%
13.9%
8.4%
9.0%
8.3%
6.6%
7.1%
6.9%
6.9%
3.1%
YTD '12
15.8%
12.9%
11.0%
9.6%
9.4%
7.3%
6.5%
6.4%
5.3%
2.8%
Covering Second Quarter 2012
Page 7
BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART THREE
Chevrolet and Subaru Relatively Strong Performers in Area
Jeep and Kia also rank high
The graph below provides an indicator of
brands that are popular in the Pittsburgh Area
(relative to the National standard), and those
that are not.
Here’s how it works: For the top 30 selling
brands in the area, each brand’s share of the
U.S. market is multiplied by retail registrations
in the area during the first six months of 2012.
This yields a “target” for the area market. Target
registrations are subtracted from actual registrations to derive the measurement of sales
performance.
sellers in the area, with actual registrations
exceeding the calculated target by a large
margin. For instance, Chevrolet registrations
exceeded the target by 1,866 units.
Source for registration data: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive.
Brands at the top of the graph (i.e., Chevrolet,
Subaru, Jeep, and Kia) are relatively strong
Greater Pittsburgh Area Retail Market Performance based on registrations for YTD 2012 thru June
Actual registrations minus target (area industry registrations times U.S. market share)
1866
Chevrolet
1622
Subaru
1454
Jeep
1358
Kia
825
Hyundai
Suzuki
565
Chevrolet, Subaru, Jeep, and Kia are
strong sellers in the area, with actual
registrations exceeding target by a
large margin.
Dodge
GMC
Buick
410
375
176
170
Cadillac
161
Chrysler
Fiat
39
Mitsubishi
19
Lincoln
19
-45
Volvo
Porsche
-67
Land Rover
-68
-110
Mazda
-174
MINI
-208
Acura
-256
Infiniti
-329
Audi
-477
BMW
Ford
-509
Volkswagen
-511
Mercedes
-680
Lexus
-692
-772
Nissan
-963
Honda
Toyota/Scion
-4,000
-3095
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
Actual registrations minus target (area industry registrations times U.S. market share)
2,000
3,000
Page 8
Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook
FORECAST DETERMINANTS
Three Primary Factors Impacting New Vehicle Sales
Most indicators point to continued improvement in area new vehicle market
Comerica Bank Auto Affordability Index
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
Quarters
#2
Consumer Debt
10.0
9.0
Q3
06
Q1
07
Q3
07
Q1
08
Q3
08
Q1
09
Q3
09
Q1
10
Q3
10
Q1
11
Q3
11
Q1
12
U.S. New Vehicle Sales
18.0
Trend Line
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
Actual
Sales
Years
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
6.0
1980
8.0
1978
Accumulated pent up demand resulting from depressed sales between 2009 and 2011 is a powerful force that will almost certainly push new vehicle
sales higher. Source for sales data: CNW Marketing
Research.
11.0
Quarters
U.S. new vehicle sales (millions of units)
Impact on new vehicle sales:
POSITIVE
12.0
8.0
#3
Pent Up Demand
Although improving, sales have remained
below trend line levels for several years,
resulting in significant pent up demand
13.0
1976
Due primarily to the write off of bad loans, the consumer debt burden is easing. Although households
still have some work to do in fixing their ailing balance
sheets, shrinking debt is definitely good news for retail spending and new vehicle sales. Source: Federal
Reserve.
14.0
1974
Impact on new vehicle sales:
MOSTLY POSITIVE
15.0
Ratio of debt service to
disposable personal income
The consumer debt burden is easing from
the highs reached in 2006
Ratio of Debt Service to Disposable Personal Income
1972
Consumer affordability for new vehicles remained at
historically strong levels in the First Quarter of 2012,
the latest reading. The purchase and financing of an
average priced new vehicle took 23.2 weeks of household in the First Quarter of ‘12, down from a year earlier. Source: Comerica Bank.
27
1970
Impact on new vehicle sales:
POSITIVE
28
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Affordability for new vehicles is at close to
record strong levels
Weeks of income needed to buy a new vehicle
#1
Consumer Affordability
Covering Second Quarter 2012
Page 9
MODEL RANKINGS
Subaru Legacy is on Top of Standard Mid Size Car Segment
Kia Sorento is best-selling Mid Size SUV
The table below shows the top five selling
models during the first six months of 2012 in
16 primary market segments. In addition to
unit registrations, it also shows each model’s
market share in its respective segment.
share. Chevrolet Cruze was first among Sub
Compact Cars, followed by Hyundai Elantra
and Honda Civic. Cadillac CTS was the best
seller among Near Luxury Cars.
SUVs (including Crossovers). Cadillac SRX was
the best-selling Luxury SUV.
Source: AutoCount data from Experian Automotive.
Dodge Caravan and Honda CRV were the best
selling Mini Van and Compact SUV, respectively. Ford Explorer was first among Full Size
Subaru Legacy held the top spot as the bestselling Standard Mid Size Car, with a 15%
Top Selling Models in Each Segment - Greater Pittsburgh Area
New Retail Registrations - YTD 2012 thru June
Cars
Entry
Model
Sub Compact
Regs.
Share Model
Sporty Compact
Regs.
Regs.
Share
Chevrolet Sonic
924
23.5 Chevrolet Cruze
1783
15.2 Chevrolet Camaro
294
26.3 Subaru Legacy
1633
15.0
Kia Soul
864
22.0 Hyundai Elantra
1457
12.4 Hyundai Veloster
282
25.2 Chevrolet Malibu
1369
12.6
Hyundai Accent
516
13.1 Honda Civic
1423
12.1 Ford Mustang
252
22.6 Hyundai Sonata
1182
10.9
Nissan Versa
275
7.0 Subaru Impreza
1078
9.2 Dodge Challenger
157
14.1 Honda Accord
1147
10.5
Ford Fiesta
271
6.9 Ford Focus
1060
9.0 Scion tC
111
9.9 Toyota Camry
981
9.0
Large Mid Size
Model
Regs.
Share Model
Regs.
Standard Mid Size
Near Luxury
Share Model
Share Model
Luxury
Regs.
Share Model
Sports Car
Regs.
Share
Buick LaCrosse
379
22.4 Cadillac CTS
475
19.8 BMW 5-Series
Regs.
168
Share Model
19.3 Chevrolet Corvette
52
31.1
Chevrolet Impala
363
21.5 BMW 3-Series
430
17.9 Mercedes E-Class
161
18.5 Mazda MX5
Ford Taurus
229
13.6 Mercedes C-Class
273
11.4 Lincoln MKS
Dodge Charger
226
13.4 Lincoln MKZ
230
Nissan Maxima
191
11.3 Infiniti G
176
39
23.4
68
7.8 Porsche 911
29
17.4
9.6 Lexus GS
66
7.6 Nissan 370Z
17
10.2
7.3 Audi A5
55
6.3 BMW Z4
11
6.6
Regs.
Share
Light Trucks
Compact Pickup
Model
Regs.
Full Size Pickup
Share Model
Regs.
Mini Van
Share Model
Full Size Van
Regs.
Share Model
Toyota Tacoma
590
31.6 Ford F-Series
2530
34.5 Dodge Caravan
495
25.2 Ford E-Series
202
39.5
Ford Ranger
520
27.8 Chevrolet Silverado
1976
26.9 Chrysler T & C
440
22.4 Chevrolet Express
128
25.0
Nissan Frontier
334
17.9 Dodge Ram
1340
18.3 Honda Odyssey
423
21.5 Ford Transit Connect
79
15.5
Chevrolet Colorado
201
10.8 GMC Sierra
961
13.1 Toyota Sienna
328
16.7 GMC Savana
63
12.3
Honda Ridgeline
115
300
4.1 Kia Sedona
137
7.0 Nissan NV
22
4.3
6.2 Toyota Tundra
Compact SUV
Mid Size/Crossover SUV
Regs.
Regs.
Share
Honda CRV
2090
17.1 Kia Sorento
1201
18.6 Ford Explorer
497
22.4 Cadillac SRX
306
14.1
Chevrolet Equinox
1392
11.4 Jeep Grand Cherokee
1118
17.4 Chevrolet Traverse
387
17.4 Lexus RX
235
10.8
Ford Escape
1254
10.3 Subaru Forester
Toyota RAV4
1161
987
Regs.
Share Model
Regs.
Luxury SUV
Model
Nissan Rogue
Share Model
Full Size SUV
Share Model
763
11.8 GMC Acadia
383
17.3 Acura MDX
209
9.6
9.5 Honda Pilot
689
10.7 Buick Enclave
198
8.9 BMW X3
137
6.3
8.1 Hyundai Santa Fe
597
160
7.2 Mercedes ML-Class
127
5.8
9.3 Chevrolet Tahoe
Page 10
Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook
SEGMENT CLOSE-UP: SMALL CARS
Chevrolet Leads in Area Small Car Market
Cruze is best-seller in segment, followed by Elantra and Civic
Brand Results - Two Year Perspective
Model Sales Leaders
% change in area new retail small car registrations
for top 15 selling brands
YTD ‘12 thru June vs, YTD 2010 (sorted by YTD ‘12)
Top 10 selling small cars in area new retail market
YTD 2012 thru June
% change
New registrations New registrations YTD ‘12 vs.
YTD ‘10 thru June YTD ‘12 thru June
YTD ‘10
Make
Chevrolet
1650
2747
66%
Hyundai
1472
1973
34%
Honda
1543
1759
14%
Kia
1017
1615
59%
Toyota
1099
1486
35%
Ford
841
1331
58%
Subaru
654
1078
65%
Volkswagen
627
926
48%
Nissan
807
693
-14%
Mazda
614
617
0%
Suzuki
428
335
-22%
Buick
0
254
Fiat
0
239
Mini
121
194
60%
Dodge
138
156
13%
Chevrolet Cruze
11%
Hyundai Elantra
9%
Others
32%
Honda Civic
9%
Volkswagen Jetta
4%
Toyota Prius
4%
Toyota Corolla/
Matrix
5%
Subaru Impreza
7%
Ford Focus
7%
Chevrolet Sonic
6%
Kia Soul
6%
Brand Sales Performance - Area market vs. U.S.
Brand market share in Pittsburgh Area and U.S.
YTD 2012 thru June
Shown from left to right based on area share
20.0%
18.0%
Market Share (%)
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Chevrolet
Hyundai
Honda
Kia
Toyota
Ford
Subaru
Volkswagen
Nissan
Mazda
Area
17.5%
12.6%
11.2%
10.3%
9.5%
8.5%
6.9%
5.9%
4.4%
3.9%
U.S.
10.2%
9.2%
14.0%
8.8%
17.9%
9.3%
3.7%
7.7%
6.9%
4.2%
Note: Small cars includes vehicles in the Entry and Sub Compact segments.
Covering Second Quarter 2012
Page 11
COUNTY SCOREBOARD
Four County Markets Up More than 10% in First Half of ‘12
Allegheny County up slightly
The tables on this page provide a thorough
summary of each of the Pittsburgh Area’s
11 county new retail light vehicle markets.
The unique county-level information provides
a valuable perspective on local market performance, and a barometer to evaluate the
performance of your dealership. Part 1 below
shows registration data and light truck market share during the first six months of 2011
and 2012. Part 2 presents data for Domestic
brands, and the top 10 selling car and light
truck brands in the Pittsburgh Area. The top
YTD thru June
2011
29,540
1,543
3,659
4,992
2,510
3,196
919
1,406
1,762
5,845
9,733
Allegheny
Armstrong
Beaver
Butler
Cambria
Fayette
Greene
Indiana
Lawrence
Washington
Westmoreland
Domestic Brands
YTD
YTD
Change
2011 2012 '11 to '12 Chevrolet
39.2 39.1
-0.1
11.3
61.6 60.1
-1.5
18.6
49.6 50.1
0.5
18.4
49.4 49.0
-0.4
12.6
54.2 51.0
-3.2
12.7
54.2 55.0
0.8
18.5
60.6 64.6
4.0
17.3
52.8 50.9
-1.9
16.6
56.2 54.2
-2.0
17.9
46.9 49.6
2.7
15.0
49.7 47.5
-2.2
14.9
Allegheny
Armstrong
Beaver
Butler
Cambria
Fayette
Greene
Indiana
Lawrence
Washington
Westmoreland
COUNTY BY COUNTY - PART 1
Percent Change
YTD 2011 to
YTD 2012
2012
29,807
0.9%
1,639
6.2%
3,755
2.6%
5,163
3.4%
2,798
11.5%
3,686
15.3%
1,137
23.7%
1,703
21.1%
1,886
7.0%
6,194
6.0%
10,657
9.5%
three ranked counties in each category are
shaded.
Source: AutoCount data from Experian
Automotive.
Unit Change
YTD 2011 to
YTD 2012
267
96
96
171
288
490
218
297
124
349
924
Light Truck Market Share (%)
YTD
YTD
Change
2011
2012 '11 to '12
47.9
47.3
-0.6
61.6
58.1
-3.5
51.8
50.4
-1.4
57.5
57.7
0.2
59.0
55.7
-3.3
53.6
52.7
-0.9
64.2
63.9
-0.3
60.3
61.0
0.7
53.8
54.2
0.4
56.7
55.9
-0.8
53.2
51.6
-1.6
COUNTY BY COUNTY - PART 2
Market Share Summary-YTD 2012 thru June
Top Ten Selling Brands in Area-YTD '12 thru June
Toyota/
Ford
Honda
Scion Hyundai
Kia
Nissan
10.0
9.8
9.3
7.1
7.0
6.3
18.7
6.2
8.4
4.0
5.2
3.1
11.9
6.6
6.9
8.5
5.0
10.7
13.4
11.8
8.8
5.3
4.1
4.7
16.7
8.3
10.3
4.8
5.6
5.8
16.8
8.2
7.8
7.9
6.3
4.0
16.4
8.2
4.2
3.9
3.3
2.9
15.2
7.9
9.6
5.0
4.9
9.2
13.0
10.5
16.2
5.4
2.0
5.0
13.5
10.4
6.7
5.3
6.7
5.2
14.0
7.5
9.2
7.2
8.0
4.0
Jeep
5.4
5.5
6.0
6.9
5.1
5.6
8.7
5.0
4.6
6.0
5.2
Subaru
6.0
4.9
4.0
4.7
5.2
3.2
7.1
4.5
1.6
4.3
5.1
Percent Change in New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations - YTD 2012 thru June vs. YTD 2011
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Greene
Indiana
Fayette
Cambria
Westm.
Lawrence
Armstrong
Wash.
Butler
Beaver
Allegheny
Dodge
4.1
4.8
5.2
5.3
6.3
6.0
14.8
5.4
5.6
6.0
5.1
Page 12
Greater Pittsburgh Auto Outlook
PITTSBURGH AREA MARKET VERSUS U.S.
Area Market Up 5.1% So Far This Year
U.S. market improved 9.9% in first half of 2012 vs. year earlier
Change in registrations
% change in registrations
YTD 2012 thru June vs. YTD 2011
Area Market
U.S. Market
5.1%
9.9%
48.6%
51.4%
45.7%
40.3%
0
Car Market Share
Car share of industry retail light vehicle
registrations - YTD 2012 thru June
0
Domestic Brand Market Share
Domestic brand share of industry retail light vehicle
registrations - YTD 2012 thru June
Top Selling Retail Brands
Top selling light vehicle brands and
market share - YTD '12 thru June
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth
Sixth
Seventh
Eighth
Ninth
Tenth
0
Chevrolet
Ford
Honda
Toyota/Scion
Hyundai
Kia
Nissan
Jeep
Dodge (incl. Ram)
Subaru
13.7%
12.5%
9.2%
8.9%
6.6%
6.4%
5.7%
5.6%
5.1%
5.1%
Toyota/Scion
Ford
Chevrolet
Honda
Nissan
Hyundai
Dodge
Kia
Jeep
Volkswagen
Distributed as a Special Report to Members by
the Greater Pittsburgh Automobile Dealers Association
Greater Pittsburgh
Auto Outlook
GREATER PITTSBURGH AUTOMOBILE DEALERS ASSOCIATION 2012-2013 BOARD OF DIRECTORS
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
DIRECTORS
CAMERON JONES, President
Northland Ford, Zelienople
MARK BAER
Budd Baer Inc., Washington
TOM LaFRANKIE
Benson Lincoln, Pittsburgh
DENNIS BAGLIER, Vice President
Baglier Buick GMC Mazda, Butler
DAN BIONDI
Biondi Motor Company, Monroeville
MIKE McWILLIAMS
Pittsburgh East Nissan, Pittsburgh
JEFF SMAIL, Secretary
Smail Auto Group, Greensburg
RON DAKAN
North Star Chevrolet, Moon Township
TOM ROHRICH
Rohrich Cadillac, Pittsburgh
PAUL SCHIMIZZI, Treasurer
Hillview Motors, Grennsburg
DEBBIE FLAHERTY
Day Automotive, Monroeville
CLARENCE B. SMAIL - NADA Director
Smail Auto Group, Greensburg
MARK SMAIL, Past President
Smail Auto Group, Greensburg
CATHERINE GLASGOW
Butler County Ford, Butler
13.4%
13.2%
11.0%
10.6%
6.8%
5.4%
4.5%
4.4%
3.5%
3.0%