UBS Asian Investor Briefings
Transcription
UBS Asian Investor Briefings
OIL SEARCH LIMITED UBS Asian Investor Briefings March 2010 1 DISCLAIMER While every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information, Oil Search Limited does not warrant that the information in this presentation is free from errors or omissions or is suitable for its intended use. Subject to any terms implied by law which cannot be excluded, Oil Search Limited accepts no responsibility for any loss, damage, cost or expense (whether direct or indirect) incurred by you as a result of any error, omission or misrepresentation in information in this presentation. All information in this presentation is subject to change without notice. This presentation also contains forward-looking statements which are subject to particular risks associated with the oil and gas industry. Oil Search Limited believes there are reasonable grounds for the expectations on which the statements are based. However actual outcomes could differ materially due to a range of factors including oil and gas prices, demand for oil, currency fluctuations, drilling results, field performance, the timing of well work-overs and field development, reserves depletion, progress on gas commercialisation and fiscal and other government issues and approvals. 2 Oil Search Profile ¬ Established in Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 1929 ¬ Operates all of PNG’s producing oil and gas fields. Current gross production ~40,000 boepd, net share ~21,000 boepd ¬ As operator, responsible for generating 22% of PNG’s export revenue and 13% of its GDP in 2008 and is PNG’s largest investor and taxpayer ¬ PNG Government is largest shareholder with 15%. In early 2009, Govt issued exchangeable bond over shares to IPIC of Abu Dhabi ¬ 29% interest in PNG LNG Project, world scale LNG project operated by ExxonMobil. Project sanctioned 8 Dec 2009. First LNG sales expected in 2014 ¬ Significant further gas resources still to be commercialised plus range of exploration interests in PNG and Middle East/North Africa ¬ Market capitalisation ~US$6 billion. Listed on ASX (Share Code OSH) and POMSOX, plus ADR programme (Share Code OISHY) 3 Oil Search Locations 4 2009 Performance Summary ¬ Highlight of 2009 was PNG LNG Project development decision: ¬ Less than two years from FEED to Sanction ¬ Transformational impact on Oil Search and PNG ¬ ExxonMobil quality operator ¬ Foundation for major LNG industry in PNG ¬ Seven fold increase in proven and probable reserves, increasing from 67 mmboe to 567 mmboe, with significant further potential upside 5 2009 Performance Summary ¬ NPAT of US$133.7 million, US$99.6m excluding PNG Government back-in and tax adjustments ¬ Satisfactory result given commodity environment, with average oil price down 35% ¬ Strong balance sheet with US$1.3 billion cash. Total liquidity of US$1.6 billion (including line of credit). Sufficient for both PNG LNG equity contribution plus funding of T3/T4 gas exploration/ appraisal programme ¬ Board approved final dividend for 2009 of 2 US cents, making 4 US cents for the year. Funded by fully underwritten Dividend Reinvestment Plan 6 Outstanding Safety Performance Total Recordable Incidents (TRIs) of 1.16 in 2009 14 12.7 TRI / 1,000,000 Hours 12 10.6 10 8 8.5 9.4 9.1 Australian Companies (APPEA) 9.3 8.2 6.0 6 4 10.7 9.8 5.7 2 7.0 7.3 5.8 4.9 International Companies (OGP) 7.8 3.9 3.6 Oil Search 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 2.4 1.7 6.8 6.3 2.9 2.7 2.31 2.1 2.04 2.05 1.16 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 7 Consistent TSR performance over 5 years Relative TSR performance for period ending 31 December, 2009 40 OSH Ranking # 42nd 1st % TSR per annum 30 3rd 20 10 0 -5 1 Year ASX 100 Index 3 Year Median Company # Ranking based on ASX 100 composition at the beginning of the reference period. Source: IRESS 8 5 Year OSH performance Future Value Growth ¬ Driven by :- ¬ PNG LNG Delivery ¬ Project optimisation ¬ Further LNG Train Development ¬ Reserve growth and Exploration Success ¬ Comprehensive programmes to deliver value through to PNG LNG first gas 9 PNG LNG Project 10 PNG LNG Project ¬ World class Project ¬ Aligned joint venture ¬ ExxonMobil Operator – ¬ ¬ ¬ excellent track record Supportive Government and communities Provides infrastructure for future growth Transformational for Oil Search and PNG 11 PNG LNG Project the road to sanction ¬ 2008 ¬ ¬ Signed JOA, aligning JV partners in March ¬ Signed Gas Agreement with Govt in May ¬ Commenced FEED in May ¬ Commenced marketing discussions late 2008 ¬ Developed financing plan 2009 ¬ Submitted EIS in January ¬ Signed UBSA in May ¬ Signed HOAs ¬ Commenced early works ¬ EIS approved in October ¬ Completed FEED, LNG plant capacity increased to 6.6 MTPA 12 PNG LNG Project the road to sanction ¬ December 2009 ¬ Completed LBSAs ¬ Signed 3 SPAs with TEPCO, Osaka Gas and Sinopec ¬ Development approval 8 December 2009 ¬ EPC contracts awarded 9 December 2009 ¬ Financing documents signed 15 December 2009 ¬ ¬ with ECAs, Commercial Banks and ExxonMobil for $14 billion Government offered and Project accepted all development licences Government paid past costs for equity back-in to new development licences ¬ Major milestones achieved on schedule, highlights Project quality 13 PNG LNG Project ¬Financial Close expected in 1Q 2010 ¬ Approval of final SPA ¬ Minor legislation amendments ¬Construction has commenced (roads, bridges, camps, site preparation and training facilities) ¬Targeting first LNG sales 2014 14 PNG LNG Project ¬ Operator ExxonMobil has excellent record of delivering projects on time, on budget ¬ First phase CAPEX, including FEED and early works US$15 billion ¬ Contracts: ¬ LNG Plant: ¬ Offshore Pipeline ¬ Hides Gas Plant ¬ Onshore Pipeline ¬ Infrastructure ¬ Early Works ¬ Associated Gas (OSH only) Chiyoda/JGC Saipem CBI/Clough JV Spiecapag McConnell Dowell/CCC JV Clough/Curtain JV Aker Solutions ¬ Mix of fixed price/variable price contracts ¬ Resourcing by contractors underway now 15 Proposed PNG LNG Future Activities Continued early works. Detailed design. Order long leads and place purchase orders. Opening supply routes. Contractor mobilisation. Commence AG construction. 2010 Financial Close 16 AG complete. Pipe laying (Kutubu to Omati). Offshore pipe lay complete. Start Hides plant installation. 2011 Ongoing procurement and mobilisation. Airfield construction. Drilling mobilisation. Offshore pipeline construction start. Onshore line clearing. Start LNG equipment installation. 2012 First Gas from Train 1, then Train 2 2013 Pipe laying Kutubu to Hides. Ongoing drilling. Complete Hides plant. Commission LNG plant with Kutubu gas. 2014 PNG LNG ranking (Macquarie Equities) ¬ Industry observers rank PNG LNG highly on returns 35 30 25 % 20 15 10 17 Pluto T1 Browse GLNG T1 Gorgon Sunrise Wheatstone APLNG T1/T2 Ichthys GLNG T2 Poseidon PNG LNG T1/T2 Pluto T3 PNG LNG T3 0 QatarGas3 5 Source: Australian Energy Sector , Macquarie Equities Research, 12 January 2010 Gas Growth 18 PNG Gas Growth ¬ Key strategic priority for Oil Search is to grow gas business in PNG ¬ LNG remains optimum commercialisation route for additional gas ¬ PNG LNG will provide infrastructure and capacity to facilitate expansion and provide excellent cost structure: ¬ Use of capacity in pipeline, jetty, tanks and services ¬ Trained local work force ¬ Government is supportive of future gas growth ¬ Pace of gas growth will be determined by: ¬ Resource aggregation/exploration ¬ Joint Venture alignment ¬ Market access 19 Existing Gas Discoveries P’nyang PPL260 Hides/Juha/Angore PRL03 PDL9 PRL02 PDL1 PDL8 PRL11 PDL6 APPL250 6°S APPL249 PDL5 PDL7 Kutubu/Agogo/SEM PPL 233 Elk/Antelope PPL239 PPL219 PDL2 Gobe/SEG APRL14 PPL190 PDL4 PDL3 PPL240 PRL08 PRL09 Barikewa Uramu PRL10 Distribution of discovered 2P reserve/resource ¬ Significant discovered oil & gas reserves/resources Kumul Terminal in Papuan Basin (predominantly in Fold Belt) PPL234 ¬ Basin is predominantly gas prone ¬ 85% of basin’s resources by boe are gas PPL244 9°S Pandora A 142°E 20 50km PRL01 145°E PNG Attracting Growing Interest Talisman Equity Participation Sasol & Interoil Equity Participation Juha Juha Hides & Angore 6°S Hides & Angore 6°S Kutubu & Agogo Kutubu & Agogo Gobe Gobe 8°S 8°S 80km 80km 142°E 144°E 146°E Port Moresby Oil Search Equity Participation Hides & Angore Kutubu & Agogo Gobe 8°S 80km Petroleum Licences CSG Licences 21 144°E 142°E 144°E 146°E Port Moresby ¬ PNG transaction value ~US$1.4 billion over past 18 months, inc NOEX acquisition of AGL licences ¬ Talisman and Sasol have acquired significant acreage in Western Forelands & Interoil has strong position in Eastern Forelands ¬ OSH strategy focused on enhancing position in core PNG LNG Foldbelt acreage and Gulf viewed as offering greatest potential for large gas discoveries Juha 6°S 142°E 146°E Port Moresby Papuan Basin Major Areas – OSH assessment Central Fold Belt NW Fold Belt Only proven oil prone area. Large undrilled surface anticlines remain Significant subthrust potential exists Low risk on reservoir, charge and seal Interior Fold Belt Numerous oil & gas seeps indicate a working hydrocarbon system Aure Fold Belt Area is under explored – Elk indicates significant potential for carbonate plays and emerging play potential Strickland A number of undrilled small low risk prospects and leads are present. Key risk is reservoir effectiveness Poor quality seismic 8°S Southern Foreland A number of risky small undrilled prospects and leads remain Gulf of Papua Poor quality seismic A number of prospects and leads across varied play fairways 100km 142°E 22 144°E Prospects can be quickly de-risked with 3D seismic PNG Gas Growth - Resource ¬ Full regional exploration review conducted during 2009 ¬ Focus areas for Oil Search are: ¬ Foldbelt/Highlands: − Adjacent to PNG LNG upstream infrastructure − Large structures, moderate risk, high OSH equity − 2010 and 2011 activity: − − − − Drilling Korka Barikewa seismic (completed) followed by appraisal drilling Huria seismic Mananda drilling ¬ Gulf of Papua: − Large under-explored areas with diverse licence holdings − 3D seismic will image subsurface, help high-grade portfolio − Opportunity to extend 3D survey into nearby licence − 2010/2011 activity: − 3D seismic survey − Drill Flinders − Appraise Pandora ¬ Foreland and Strickland: − Maintain watching position − CBM test in 2010 23 Proposed PNG Gas Exploration PPL260 Korka Huria (PDL 8) PRL03 PDL9 PRL02 PDL1 Mananda FW PDL8 PRL11 PDL6 APPL250 6°S APPL249 PDL5 PDL7 PPL 233 Wasuma Deep (PPL219 & 190) PPL239 Cecilia West PPL219 PDL2 APRL14 PPL190 PDL4 PDL3 Mananda Attic PPL240 PRL08 PRL09 PRL10 Notes Circle areas proportional to reserves potential. Outer circle unrisked potential, inner circle risked potential Barikewa Deep PPL234 PPL244 Flinders Red =Gas, Orange= Condensate Green = Oil 9°S 142°E 24 Kumul Terminal 50km PRL01 145°E PNG LNG Resource Offshore 3D survey ¬4,700 km2 of 3D seismic to be acquired in 2010 – largest in PNG history 4,700 km2 3D 25 Gas Growth - Partnering ¬ Having aligned Joint Venture with required skills and relationships is critical to driving timely gas commercialisation ¬ PNG LNG has ability to expand the unit, with upside discovered resource ¬ Gas growth in PNG LNG fields is aligned with existing development ¬ Gas growth in non PNG LNG fields and exploration licences involves various aligned JV's ¬ Oil Search considering optimum partnering strategies in exploration licences to position for timely gas commercialisation 26 Operations 27 Oil Search Production 14 Net Production (mmboe) MENA Hides GTE 12 12.17 SEM SE Gobe 11.05 Gobe Main 10.21 10 Moran 9.76 Kutubu 8.60 8 8.12 7.2-7.4 6 4 2 0 28 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (Forecast) 2009 Production Performance ¬ 8.12 mmboe, demonstrated strong ¬ ¬ ¬ underlying performance in all fields Kutubu production enhanced by new development wells and workovers Moran impacted by facility downtime mid-year, however drilling and workovers made up for temporary shortfall No new wells on Gobe during 2009. Performance above expectation ¬ PNG field costs: Production impact of recent drilling at Usano 12,000 10,000 UDT 10,12 Oil Rate (bopd) ¬ Excellent safety performance ¬ Production: 8,000 UDT 8,9 6,000 UDT 11 4,000 UDT 7 2,000 Usano Main Block Usano East Block 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ADD5 well – extension to Agogo Field ¬ Cost control and reduction initiatives undertaken to offset the impact of: − Appreciating A$ & Kina on US dollar cost base in 2H − Reduction in drilling activities, in response to fall in oil price − 4% reduction in saleable oil volumes − Inflationary environment in PNG 29 2009 PNG Drilling ¬ Two new rigs (103 and 104) operating throughout the year ¬ Significant performance improvements achieved: ¬ ¬ ¬ ¬ Faster drilling rates / lower cost per metre Rig move time substantially reduced Lower non productive time New technology successfully applied ¬ Programme for 2010 based on geographical optimisation of rigs fleet with flexibility to include 3rd party programmes ¬ Hydraulic workover unit operating successfully, will recommence five well programme mid-2010 30 ADT 2 – Opens up new play SW NE mTVD 7” 2200 Hang ingwa ll Over t ur ne d Forel im b Hedinia Sand 2400 Tested Zone Toro B/C Fault Compartment 1 2600 Fault Compartment 2 2800 Digimu Toro A ST1 5” ST2 3000 Fault Compartment 3 Proven Oil Alene 3200 (pressures) ST3 Probable Oil (logs) Fault Compartment 4 Possible Oil ADT 2 Well Results: ¬ 1,100 metre+ proven height ¬ 4 fault compartments ¬ Digimu in fault compartment 1 has proven oil ¬ No pressure data in fault compartments 2, 3, 4 though Toro had elevated gas and resistivities ¬ Multi-zone completion installed ¬ Production testing underway, 2,000 bopd from first zone (FC1) 3400 31 Oil development drilling continues to add value PNG Oil Fields - Ultimate Recoverable Reserves (pre-LNG) Millions of Barrels 560 540 1P 2P 520 500 480 460 440 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ¬ Since 2003, gross PNG proven oil reserves have increased by 51 mmbbl to 73 mmbbl, with further 34 mmbbl in probable reserves ¬ Development drilling has added reserves at average cost of US$11.72/bbl ¬ Many further opportunities exist, including appraisal of Agogo deep (ADT 2), drilled in late 2009/10, recently tested at 2,000 bopd 32 Reserves & Resources 31 December 2009 ¬ Six-fold increase in proven (1P) reserves, from 50 mmboe at end 2008 to 344 mmboe: ¬ PNG LNG Project reserve booking of 301 mmboe ¬ 2009 production of 8.1 mmboe ¬ Oil reserve additions at Kutubu, Gobe and SE Gobe of 2.4 mmboe ¬ Seven-fold increase in proven & probable (2P) reserves, from 67 mmboe to 567 mmboe: ¬ PNG LNG Project reserve booking of 505 mmboe ¬ 2009 production of 8.1 mmboe ¬ Oil reserve additions at Kutubu, Gobe and SE Gobe of 2.8 mmboe ¬ 2C resources, comprising gas and associated liquids, of 281 mmboe at end 2009, compared to 886 mmboe at end 2008: ¬ Adjustment of 79 mmboe, due to Government back-in, to PNG LNG, initial equity determination and field reserve changes ¬ PNG LNG Project reserves booking of 505 mmboe ¬ Decrease of 21 mmboe for revisions to certain fields’ 2C estimates and Government back-in ¬ Total 2P and 2C reserves and resources of 848 mmboe 33 2010 Operations Outlook ¬ Key strategic rebuild to optimise oil and gas business ¬ Gas value driving revised Operating Framework: ¬ Field reliability management ¬ Gas conservation with minor oil production impact ¬ Production outlook for 2010 of 7.2 – 7.4 mmboe ¬ Value adding PNG production activities will continue: ¬ Reduced drilling programme with 1 – 2 wells at Moran and ¬ ¬ ¬ 34 appraisal of Agogo deep play ¬ Workover campaign in Kutubu, Moran, SE Gobe ¬ New well optimisation and testing, reservoir management activities Continued focus on capturing additional in-field reserve opportunities post-ADT 2 sidetrack Ongoing focus on costs and capital efficiency following successful 2009 Operations Review Aligning and maximising use of infrastructure to support LNG project Exploration Outlook ¬ PNG: ¬ Exploration for gas – key to driving LNG expansion ¬ Additional oil focused exploration in 2010: −Wasuma (25 mmbbl mean, currently drilling in PPL 219) −Mananda Attic (30 mmbbl mean in PPL 219, plus gas play) ¬ MENA: ¬ Focus on finding material oil and maximising asset value: − Evaluate commerciality of Shakal (Iraq) and Tubb’a (Yemen) discoveries − Oil–focused drilling ongoing within Blocks 3 and 7 in Yemen, targeting 3D defined structures − Seismic in Kurdistan (K42 world class exploration province) and Tunisia planned to define drillable large structures 35 PNG 2010 Exploration Summary PPL260 Korka (15%) 1.3 tcf + PRL03 PDL9 Mananda FW (10%) 1.2 tcf + PRL02 PDL1 PDL8 PRL11 PRL11 PDL6 APPL249 PDL5 PDL7 PPL 6°S PPL233 55km 233 Wasuma HW(30%) 25 mmstb PPL239 Mananda Attic (45%) 30 mmstb 80km APPL250 PPL219 PDL2 APRL14 PPL190 PDL4 PDL2 100km PPL240 PDL3 Wasuma Deep (20%) 25 mmstb PRL08 PRL09 Well Types PRL10 Commitment Future Commitment Kumul Terminal Discretionary PPL234 Prospect/Lead (POS%) Mean Oil Gross (mmstb) PPL244 Mean Gas Gross (bscf) PPL234 3000+km2 Seismic Flinders (12.5%) 1.0 tcf+ Commitment Discretionary 9°S Permit 2D(distance)/3D(area) 142°E 36 50km PRL01 145°E MENA 2010 Exploration Activity Summary Le Kef Shakal 60km Taj. + Le Kef 600km K42 Tajerouine Area 18 K42 200km Shakal Dubai Office Well Types Al Measher (20.0%) 20 mmstb Commitment Future Commitment Discretionary Prospect/Lead (POS%) Mean Oil Gross (mmstb) Mean Gas Gross (bscf) Seismic Commitment Discretionary Lead E Lam (9%) 70 mmstb Sana’a Office Lead M (9%) 20 mmstb Block 7 Block 3 Block 3 & 7 400km Permit 2D(distance)/3D(area) 37 Outlook and Summary 38 Outlook and Summary ¬ Oil Search core business in excellent shape to drive further value growth over next 3 years ¬ PNG LNG Project Sanctioned ¬ ExxonMobil quality operator for delivery ¬ Contractors mobilising, construction started ¬ Buyers secured, with pricing locked in ¬ Finance secured, excellent package ¬ Significant impact on PNG already being felt ¬ Country and Company transformational, Project underway 39 Focus on Value Enhancement ¬ Two largely independent core gas development streams: ¬ PNG LNG dedicated fields ¬ Material core reserves ¬ Proven 300 mmboe (OSH share) sold ¬ Proven & probable 500 mmboe (OSH share) – significant upside ¬ Field development optimisation ¬ Future appraisal ¬ Strong partner alignment ¬ Other fields and exploration ¬ ¬ ¬ ¬ Material resources still to be commercialised Proven & probable 281 mmboe (OSH share) Future appraisal and exploration underway Developing material portfolio ex PNG LNG ¬ Assessed sufficient risked resource base to underwrite Trains 3 and 4 40 Significant LNG Reserve Booking Potential 900 800 1P/1C 4,000 2P/2C 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PNG 2009 Reserves & Resources (100% License Estimates) Millions of Barrels Oil Equiv. Millions of Barrels Oil Equiv. (NET) Oil Search 2009 PNG Fields Net Reserves & Resources 2P/2C 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - Oil Fields Oil + PNG LNG Oil + PNG LNG + Resources Oil Only Oil + PNG LNG OSH Fields' Reserves & Resources All Other Resources ¬ OSH commitment to PNG LNG delivers an incremental 301 ¬ ¬ mmboe and 505 mmboe on 1P and 2P basis respectively Additional net 2C resources of 281 mmboe are available from other OSH fields Total resources in OSH and other PNG fields (ex PNG LNG) estimated at 1,686 mmboe (9 tcf) 41 Active programmes to deliver in 2010 ¬ Field and development optimisation (Central Foldbelt) ¬ Seismic acquisition and drilling ¬ Accelerated exploration (NW Foldbelt and Gulf) ¬ Seismic and drilling, CSM ¬ Selected acquisitions (PRL 1, PPL 244 and others) ¬ Partner alignment (PNG LNG and others) 42 Strong balance sheet ¬ OSH has the financial capacity: ¬ US$1.29 billion in cash at end December ¬ US$362.5 million available from term revolving facility, nil drawn down ¬ Group liquidity ~US$1.65 billion ¬ Sanction of PNG LNG Project in December delivered US$88 million of proceeds net to OSH from PNG Government back-in to Project gas licences ¬ Claw-back from lenders of 70% of Project costs spent prior to Financial Close will realise a further ~US$300 million inflow 43 2010 Guidance Summary ¬ Production: ¬ 7.2 – 7.4 mmboe ¬ Opex: ¬ US$16-18/boe ¬ Increase due to FX, PNG inflation, increased spend to improve reliability & extend life and relatively fixed cost base on lower production. In addition, accelerated focus on workovers to maximise oil recovery prior to gas blow down ¬ D,D & A: ¬ US$6-8/boe ¬ Decrease due to recognition of LNG reserves ¬ Capex: ¬ Exploration – US$210m (80% in PNG, 20% in MENA) ¬ Production/Other – US$85m (inc corporate & other ¬ 44 gas) PNG LNG – US$1,000 - 1,350m OSH good value on 1P reserves relative to Global Energy Sector Enterprise value (US$m) / 1P reserves (mmboe) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 45 Phillips BP Total ExxonMobi Oil Search Santos Devon Apache Talisman Hess Shell Anadarko Chevron ENI Woodside Repsol Marathon BG Murphy Husky 0 Arrow 5 Note: Enterprise Values as at 31 January, 2010. 1P reserves based on latest publicly available reserves figures Source: Public information Production Outlook ¬ PNG LNG adds ~18 mmboe pa to OSH at plateau in 2015 onwards. 30 year Project life ¬ T3 could add an additional ~9 mmboe pa, with T4 of similar magnitude Net Production (boepd) 90,000 80,000 Potential T3 LNG Gas 60,000 50,000 LNG Condensate 40,000 30,000 LNG Gas 20,000 10,000 0 2010 46 Potential T3 LNG Condensate 70,000 PNG Development 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Summary ¬Core oil production remains solid. Focus on life extension, reliability and gas conservation ¬ A new value equation ¬Measured oil exploration in PNG and MENA ¬Activities underwritten by strong balance sheet and liquidity to meet LNG obligations, T3/T4 appraisal and exploration activity 47