Presentacion_AESDom_Mesa Redonda_2013.pptx

Demand of Natural Gas in Dominican Republic Marco De la Rosa June 2013 AES Dominicana • Leader in the production of competitive electricity in the Dominican
Republic, and the rest of the region of Central America and the Caribbean
•  Investment: US$ 1,200 MM
•  Instaled Capacity: 27% of the system
•  Contribution to the Electical System: 40% in average
•  Type of Fuels : Natural Gas and Coal
•  Sales of Natural Gas to Third Parties: Industrial, transport and electrical
Energy Imports – Dominican Republic Dominican Republic Imports for Energy and
Oil Price Events
5,000
Soaring Demand China & India, Supply Constrains, GeopoliHcal Concerns 4,500
4,000
3,500
MMUS$
3,000
2,500
2,000
IRAQ Invasion 2nd Gulf War Katrina & Rita Hurricanes OPEP Restrics Oil Output Global Recesion Economy Recovery 1,500
1,000
500
-
Yukos Crisis 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Important Remarks for Dominican Republic:
Ø  More than 90% of the energy consumed by DR is imported.
Ø  Every Oil Crisis of even Weather Event impact the Energy Imports.
Ø  DR has no control over the price of the fuels that imports.
Energy Matrix Evolution -­‐ World Important Structural Changes in the Supply Pattern:
Ø  1800-1900: Industrial revolution, fueled by Coal
Ø  1900- 2000: Technological Evolution dominated by Oil, & Gas
Ø  2000-2008: New Perspective: Arrise Shale gas & Oil
Ø  2013-2020: ?
Energy Matrix Evolution -­‐ DR Evolution Energy Matrix - Dominican Republic
0%
4%
3%
93%
2000
4%
3%
94%
2001
0%
4%
3%
93%
2002
Oil & Derivates
Hydro
4%
4%
4%
4%
6%
4%
4%
7%
84%
2003
6%
2%
4%
6%
82%
2004
80%
2005
Biomass
7%
5%
4%
6%
Natural Gas
Coal
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
4%
6%
7%
4%
5%
7%
4%
5%
11%
12%
14%
4%
5%
4%
5%
4%
6%
79%
76%
77%
76%
73%
72%
69%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
Important Structural Changes in the Supply Pattern:
Ø  2000 - 2002: Pre Capitalization fueled by Oil & Derivates
Ø  2002 - 2006: New fuels introduced to the DR Energy Matrix (Generation)
Ø  2007-2012: Natural gas is introduced to industrial, generation and transport
markets.
Natural Gas In Numbers •  32% of gas consumed comes from abroad. billion cubic meters
Im ports
•  10% of gas is traded as Production Consum ption Gas Traded Pipeline
LNG
LNG. North Am erica
864.2
863.8
146.1
128.8
17.4
S. & Cent. Am erica
167.7
154.5
26.6
15.6
10.9 •  75% of LNG is contracted Europe & Eurasia
1036.4
1101.1
560.4
469.8
90.7
L.T. Middle East
526.1
403.1
36.2
31.6
4.6
Africa
202.7
109.8
5.7
5.7
•  63% LNG is consumed in Asia Pacific
479.1
590.6
250.5
43.2
207.3
Asia (Japan – 32%). Total World
3,276.22
3,222.95
1,025.46
694.64
330.83 •  DR LNG demand represents 0.3%. LNG Supply Chain •  LNG industry “exclusive club”. •  Constrains when demand increase (e.g. Japan). •  High cash investment Transport Regas Terminal LiquefacHon and more than 2 to 3 years to be in line. 24 countries 360 cargos 25 countries 18 liquefacHon plants 84 liquefacHon plants •  New projects related to Oil. 278 mtpa capacity 640 mtpa capacity Natural Gas Market - Worlwide Perspective
Natural Gas History in the DR Tercera Expansión
Segunda
Expansión
Distribución
GN
Distribución GN
1999
LNG Concept
2001
BPGM
Contract
•  AES signs long •  AES takes term contract decision to with BP, under invest in the a ToP base first plant of with a base LNG in DR. quanHty of •  AES believes in 33.6 Tbtu/
natural gas year. advantages in the long term in the DR. 2003
Commercial
Operation LNG
2005
2008 - 2011
First Expansion
NG Retail
•  AES signs first •  February 2003, AES contract to sell starts Commercial natural to third OperaHon of the LNG parHes. Focused Terminal. in the industrial •  Starts operaHon of the and commercial gas pipeline to Los sectors. Mina (35 Km from Boca •  Compressed Chica to Los Mina). technology used •  Mainly based to supply to supply the AES Gencos of AES new demand. Andres & Los Mina (550 MW). 2008
- 2010
2012
- 2015
2011-2012
Second Expansion
NG Retail
•  First genco client – SEABOARD. •  First Truck Loading Terminal of LNG to supply demand located far from AES faciliHes. •  ConsolidaHon of the market 5 discos in LNG and 2 in CNG. •  Expansion to east – pipeline. •  Second Storage Tank. Natural Gas Sales to third parties -­‐ DR SEABOARD Startup 14.0 12.0 TBtu 10.0 LNG Trucks Terminal 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 -­‐ 2007 Lineaclave Startup R-­‐LNG 2008 SGN Startup R-­‐LNG 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Important Remarks: -­‐  DR demand represents 3 cargos – 2013. -­‐  Investments in LNG terminal support market development: -­‐  Truck Terminal -­‐  3er Train RegasificaHon -­‐  Capacity available for future development Natural Gas Sales –2012 NGV 7% Deliveries of Natural Gas by Technology 11.13 TBtu's Demand of Natural Gas per Sector w/SEABOARD LNG 35% Industrial 46% LNG-­‐R 65% Power GeneraHon 47% PROPAGAS PLATERGAS 4% 6% TROPIGAS 14% SEABOARD 44% SGN 16% LINEACLAVE 16% Market Share per Client Participants of the Market -­‐ DR AES Andres
6 Distribution Companies
- TROPIGAS
- PROPAGAS
- PLATERGAS
- LINEACLAVE
- SOLUCIONES EN GAS NATURAL
Industrial
(65 clients)
Power
Generation
(6)
Transport (NGV)
(>10,000 vehicles/ >15 pumps)
Potential Demand Identified 120 NGV Industrial Gencos AES Gencos 100 AddiHonal Storage 80 60 40 20 -­‐ 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PotenHal Demand Remarks: -­‐  IdenHfied demand includes green field projects and conversions -­‐  Expansion (pipeline, new tank) require high demand off takers -­‐  New projects require at least 18 month to be in line 2020