Cans or Cars - Het Aluminium Centrum

Cans or Cars
Aluminium & the Automotive Industry
JLR Light Weight Vehicle (LWV) Strategy
Mark White
Chief Technical Specialist
Jaguar & Land Rover Cars
Aluminium 2006
21st International Aluminium Conference
Moscow 18/09/2006
1
Cans or Cars
• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
Cans or Cars
• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
2
Automotive Materials
Source: Alan Taub, Director, GM R&D division 2003
Aluminium automotive history
Aluminium vehicle rational:-
•
Used by most OEM’s for specialist applications.
> Performance - due to light weight for Sports Vehicles
> Increase Payload – SUV’s & Heavy & specialist Trucks.
> Offset increasing feature & size in Premium vehicles
Aluminium Intensive Vehicles (AIV)
• Jaguar & LR long history of Sports Car & SUV applications
• Supply & price relative to steel always been significant factor
• In 1980’s Alcan started AIV programs with several OEM’s
• Focus on maximum weight save for minimum cost increase
• Significant effort to overcome Manufacturing issues
3
Historic Aluminium Jaguars
Swallow sidecar
1922
1948
XK 120
1951
D-type
C-type
1953
1966
XJ 13
1989
XJ220
Jaguar & Ford LWV Programs
P2000S
Taurus AIV
XJ 220
Ford IR for > 250K units/year
1989
1992
1996
1999
X350
P2000
IR Prototype for > 250K units/year
IR Prototype for > 250K units/year
1st Unibody Production LWV
2003
2006
X150
2nd UnibodyProduction LWV
Unibody Construction - primarily stamped, monocoque structure
incorporating castings, hydro-forms & extrusions in selected areas,
assembled using spot joining (SPR/RSW) & structural adhesive
4
Other recent aluminium vehicles
Audi A8
Ferrari 360
Production < 10K units/year
1993
1997
Prowler (DC)
Production < 5K units/year
Vanquish
Production < 2K units/year
1999
2000
Audi A2
Production < 35K units/year
Production < 1K units/year
2001
2005
Ford GT
Production < 2K units/year
Multi Product Space frame - Use of multiple technologies (castings,
extrusions, hydroforms, roll-forms, etc.) assembled using a combination of
double sided & single sided joining (laser-welding, MIG-welding, hybridwelding, SPR, RSW, etc.) & structural adhesives.
Cans or Cars
• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
5
Weight by Model Generation
1550
1450
Vectra
2
Toyota
Corolla
1350
1250
Toyota
Corolla
Astra
Mk3
Astra
Mk5
Citroen
ZX
2004
2002
2000
1996
1994
YEAR
1992
1988
1986
Ford
Focus
Citroen
Xsara
Ford
Escort MK5
1984
1982
Astra
Mk4
Toyota Cavalier VW
Corolla Mk3 Golf Mk3
Ford
VW
Escort MK4
Golf Mk2
Citroen
Ford
BX
Escort MK3 Astra
Mk2
1980
1978
Ford
Citroen
Escort MK2
GS
VW
Astra
Golf Mk1
Mk1
1970
750
Toyota
ToyotaCavalier Corolla
Corolla Mk2
1976
850
1974
950
Vauxhall
Cavalier Mk1
Toyota
Corolla
1972
1050
VW
Golf Mk4
Vectra
1
1998
1150
1990
Kg
VW
Golf Mk5
OEM Body weight save options
Focus of Future Development
~5%
100%
~10%
~17%
Body
Mass
~ 40%
~45%
~?%
1990’s
Body
Material
2000
2005
Current
Optimised
Optimised
Steel BIW
HSS Steel BIWê
HSS/UHSS Steel
BIW ê
2010
Aluminium/
HSS/UHSS
Mixcar ê
steel
2010+
Aluminium
Optimised
Hybrid
Structure
Aluminium
Material
Structure ê
Structure ê
ê
- non-steel based content by mass
6
Body material technology trends
MY
Make/Model
Mild Steel (%) HSS %
B.H %
AHSS %
00
GM Corsa
57
26
00
Renault Laguna2
22
43
35
01
Peugeot 307
59
35
3
01
MB E Class
42
44
3
02
GM Vectra
45
6
02
Nissan Micra
47
30
02
Porsche Cayenne
36
02
BMW 5 Series
20
17
02
Renault Megane2
35
31
03
Ford C-Max
60
35
03
Volvo S40
46
31
03
GM Astra
48
26
03
Jaguar XJ
NA
2
UHSS %
Al/Pl %
Weight
15
34
+
+ 20kg
+
7
3
11
+51kg
4
+
23
+
28
29
N/A
25
20
18
34
2
3
N/A
20
16
-26kg
+ 53kg
3
+ 15kg
8
2
=
98
-200kg
Car Bodies getting heavier despite extensive use of HSS
Luxury Car weight benchmark
Vehicle weight trend
1950
25Yr Published
Competitor in
Weights
Data indicates all vehicle sectors
increased
weight 10-20kg per
year average despite use of new materials on new models
XJ
Audi 80/A4
Audi 100/A6
1750
Audi A8
Weight (Kg)
1550
BMW 3
BMW 5
1350
BMW 7
1150
Merc 190/C
950
- Increase in Vehicle size & or Power train
- Reduce vehicle or power train size, or change of material
750
1978
1980
1982
1984
1985
1988
1990
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2002
2003
Merc 200/E
Merc S
2004
Years
7
XJ LWV Body Design
XJ
Stampings 90%
Castings
4%
Extrusions
6%
Material:90% of body is sheet
6111 - Exterior panels
Joining:-
5182 - Inner panels
Self Pierce Rivets - 3200
5754 - Structure panels
Adhesive - 110m
% by part count
XK Body Structures Overview
New XK XJ
Stampings
72%
90%
8%
4%
Extrusions
20%
6%
Carry-over
stampings
22
Carry-over
castings
6
Castings
Joining:% by part count
SPR’s - 2600
Adhesive - 98m
8
Material cost Overview
Steel Compont = 1kg. Typically aluminium alloy would save 45% of Mass.
Material
Minimum Gauge Price/kg
Mass of
Price/part
mm
€uros
part kg
€uros
Mild Steel (2) + Z100
HSS (DP600) + Z100
UHSS (Boron + AlSi)
No Limitation
No Limitation
No Limitation
0.400
0.450
0.600
1.000
0.900
0.800
0.400
0.405
0.480
AA5182
NG5754
No Limitation
No Limitation
2.956
2.956
0.550
0.550
1.626
1.626
AA6111
AA6016
Ac300
No Limitation
No Limitation
No Limitation
3.238
3.167
3.252
0.500
0.550
0.500
1.619
1.742
1.626
Extrusion AA 6014
Size related
6.000
0.600
3.600
HPDCastings
Sand Castings
2
3
10.000
12.000
0.650
0.700
6.500
8.400
Thermo plastic
some limitation
2.000
0.600
1.200
Composite
HS Composite
some limitation
3.000
0.700
some limitation
20.000
0.350
Aluminium Prices based upon LME of $2,050 US
2.100
7.000
Customer Weight Benefits
LWV strategy benefits
• Improved performance
• Better Handling (yaw inertia)
• Reduced braking distance
• Improved Fuel Economy
• Reduced Co2 emissions
• Improved Safety
• Improved durability
• Improved Quality
Consumers do
not buy weight only the benefits
• 2nd JD POWER 2005
• 1st Auto Zeitung 2006
9
Cans or Cars
• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
Automotive Industry overview
• The Automotive industry is the Biggest in the world
> Cars £900bn
> Commercial Vehicles £225bn
> Parts £150bn
• Predicted Continued future growth
> More cars made in next 20 years than the last 110
• World wide production expected to top 60m by 2020
• Significant increase from Only 40m in 2000
10
Aluminium in Passenger cars
250
EEC vehicle build (000,s)
2007
2008
2009
16363
16716
17158
200
2010
17373
210
Strip steel/vehicle - C/D size (kg)
BIW
375
Closures
150
Seating
58
Wheels
70
Bumper
19
Suspension/subframe
130
IP
12
150
Total
100
155
117
104
814
75
54
43
50
20
30
25
61
35
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Western Europe
2010
North America
Automotive sheet Market Size
Aluminium Car Body Sheet in Europe - Market Development 2000 to 2015
350
steel used (Mt/year)
2007
2008
13.31948 13.60682
2009
13.96661
20%
2010
14.14162
300
20%
20%
250
22%
Market size (kt)
Percentage of Ford PAG of Total Market
23%
19%
200
17%
17%
18%
150
20%
14%
100
20%
19%
2004
2005
23%
17%
22%
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2006
2007
Others
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total Ford PAG
11
Eu Market use by Brand
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2006
Market Share by OEM
Renault
8%
Others
3%
PSA
12%
Others
10%
Audi/VW
14%
31kt
39kt
PSA
7%
BMW
25%
54kt
GM Group
5%
25kt
60kt
17kt
Ford Group
20%
Audi/VW
13%
Renault
7%
17kt
GM Group
4%
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2015
Market Share by OEM
Ford Group
20%
DC
14%
Total market size 125 kt
BMW
18%
60kt
DC
20%
Total market size 300 kt
BMW largest current user due to hang on’s & 5/6 series front structures
PAG & DC predicted to continue growth to become largest sheet users
Eu Market use – by Application
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2006
Hang-ons (closures) by application
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2015
Hang-ons (closures) by application
Tailgate
9%
Tailgate
5%
Roof
10%
Roof
3%
Doors
10%
26kt
9kt
Fenders
16%
14kt
Doors
20%
55kt
Bonnet
62%
40kt
111kt
Bonnet
56%
17kt
Fenders
9%
Total hang-ons 89 kt
Total hang-ons 198 kt
Focus changing from just weight save to priority weight save for vehicle type
12
Eu Market use – BIW Structure
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2006
BIW structure
European Aluminium Car Body Sheets - 2015
BIW structure
behind A-pillar
28%
behind A-pillar
20%
10kt
20kt
26kt
Total BIW structure 36 kt
82kt
Front module
72%
Total BIW structure 102 kt
22%
Cast Al.
16%
Ext. Al.
31%
Sheet Al.
31%
Sheet Steel
Front module
80%
Cans or Cars
• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
13
Steel Price 1920 to 2010
Steel price predicted to continue to rise as a result of China/India demand
(source: BHP Billiton, Minerals Week, 2005)
Aluminium relative to steel
3000
Al LME
HR Steel
Monthly Average - Al LME vs. HR Steel
2500
$/MT
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Jan-75
Jan-80
Jan-85
Jan-90
Jan-95
Jan-00
Jan-05
Jan-10
Note: Aluminium 1/3rd density of steel, 50% gauge increase for same linear performance,
above does not include fabrication costs
14
Market Balance & LME Price
500
Actual Data Through March 2006
400
300
200
100
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
Jan-99
Jan-98
Jan-97
Jan-96
Jan-95
-100
Jan-94
0
-200
-300
-400
Supply/Demand Changes w/Stealth
Cash LME Price
-500
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
World Oil Production
Model of world Crude Oil & Natural Gas Liquid production, Giga barrels/annum
(source: Campbell 2004)
15
Oil Price - 1980 to 2030
US$/Barrel
Oil price predicted to drop in the near future, but stay in $50/60 band
(source: 2006 EIA International Energy Outlook)
The Influence of Kyoto
In 1996 the UK road transport sector
was estimated to account for 24.6 M
tonnes of carbon (MtC).
In July 1998 ACEA committed to
reduce the average CO2
emissions to 140g/km by 2008 for
all new cars sold in the EU
ACEA (European car manufacturers representative)
16
CO2 Emissions for cars/year
2008 Target
2010 Target
Currently the Industry is not meeting the voluntary target
Comparison of CO2 Emissions
LWV Deisel (Audi A2)
hybrid car - Honda Insight
hybrid car - Toyota Prius
mid-size diesel car
mid-size petrol car
heavy diesel car
heavy petrol car
Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
CO2 emissions g/km
17
End of life Vehicle directive
•
•
Eu OEM’s responsible for vehicle disposal at end of life from 2006
95% of parts must to be recycled - Land fill is no longer acceptable
Values of Re-cycled material
Material depreciation when sold for re-cycling (Euros/kg)
Material
Original cost
Recycle cost
Depreciation
Steel
0,6
0,1
0,5
Aluminium
2
1
1
Polyprop.
1
0,3
0,7
SMC/GMT
2
N/A
N/A
Noryl/ABS
5
N/A
N/A
Currently no substantial value on re-cycling market for polymers
Aluminium is currently the highest value re-cycled material
18
Cans or Cars
• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What Can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
Base Material cost analysis
$1600
Alumina
Energy
Labour
Overhead
Capital
Total
$1400
$311.00
Capital
Recovery
$1200
$1000
$280.00
Overhead
$135.00
$800
Labour
$600
$290.00
Energy
$400
Alumina
$395.00
$200
0
Recycled metal uses only 10%
of the energy to convert back
into sheet, this could reduce
the cost per tonne by +$200
Source: Alcan 2002
19
LWV Closed Loop Recycling
Scrap could be used
for continuous cast
feedstock for lowest
cost metal
Recycle
Scrap
• Chemistry
• Scrap Value
Stamping
• Stamping
• Trim
• Segregation
• Collection
Ingot
• Handling
• Tier 2s
• Blending
• Chemistry Control
Blank
Coil
• Slitting
• Hot Rolling
• Cold Rolling
• Cut-to-length
• Laser Blanking
Scrap segregation key to lower cost material
Continues Casting process
Conventional
Continues cast
20
Continuous Cast Growth
7000
Continuous Casting Capacity 1960-1999
6000
Middle East & Africa
5000
4000
Cumulative
Capacity
(ktpa)
Asia-Pacific
Eastern Europe
3000
Western Europe
Latin America
2000
North America
1000
0
60 62
64
66 68
70 72
74 76 78
80 82
84 86
88
90 92
94 96 98
Source: Monitor analysis, CRU, Press, Light Metal Age
Cans or Cars
• Aluminium Automotive history
• Current Aluminium use in Automotive
• Future Growth Potential
• Factors affecting Growth
• What can the Aluminium Industry do?
• Summary
21
Summary
• Cost/kg still dominant factor in restricting growth
• Industry needs to close the gap relative to steel
• Stable pricing required for future business planning
• External Pressures likely to drive Growth rate
• Review short term profits relative to future growth
Finally it is down to the aluminium Industry to choice
Cans or Cars?
Cans or Cars?
Thank you for Listening
22