LeadingAge NY - LeadingAge New York

Transcription

LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
LeadingAge NY 2015
What’s Next?
Richard S. Rosen, AIA LEED AP
Principal
Valerie B. Mutterperl, AIA
Senior Associate
May 19, 2015
Evolving Pattern 1:
Health Market Segments
 “Boomers” will have health
issues and experience the
need for care and assistance
 At the same time many
aspects of health, or the
health of many, are likely to be
better than in the past
 But they (we) WILL age
Richard Rosen | Valerie Mutterperl
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Evolving Pattern 2: Shift in Where and
How Support is Delivered
 Access to medical capabilities
and information is greatly
increased
 Continued confluence of events
that will result in alternative
delivery models and movement
away from institutional settings
 Increased integration of
management/care across
settings and time —
“Management” is the keystone
Emerging Pattern 3: Businesses that Respond
to the Eternal Wish, “I want to stay in my own
home,” Will Thrive
 Increased growth in and efforts
to sell consumers devices that
allow aging-in-place
 Continued demand for and
growth in services and
products that facilitate
wellness and mobility
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Integrating the Needs and Desires
What is Home?
 Desire to reduce maintenance
 Desire to downsize
 Desire for control and
autonomy
 Where I know my community
(bakery, grocery, etc.)
 Desire for safety
Emerging Pattern 4: The Divide Deepens
 Health, technology access and
use, fitness, nutrition are all age
and income related
 Most data pointing to a
deepening divide of rich and poor
 Future impact of government
debt?
 Inflation, housing values,
interest rates, shifting the
rules of 401(k)s,
understanding fees
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Emerging Patterns 4, 5, and 6:
 Observation of growing interest in
“community” and models that
support it: Villages, Co-Housing,
CCRCs
 Sharing Rather Than Owning:
 Millenials are setting the
example
 Economic times = only one driver
of this trend
 Not just things, also one’s skills?
 Experience vs. Things: Always Existed
Among Older Adults?
Product Observations from the Field
 Assisted Living and Memory Care:
 Most of the growth
 But there are some
undercurrents
 Home Care
 Increased start-ups by CCRCs
 Challenges remain
 On campus
 Crossing the threshold
 Ongoing interest in CCRCs – but still
a limited market, risk, high danger
under some scenarios
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
If I Were Queen Of A Forest
My Forest Would Have:
 Home Care (across the threshold)
 Care management, concierge
 Housing:
 Smaller blocks that fit into
most neighborhoods
 Not necessarily age restricted
 Age defiant residences
 Identify NORCs and Emerging
NORCs
 Consumer communications tools
Key Concepts for the Future
 Smaller
 Neighborhood integrated
 Autonomy for constituents but
key support over time
 Eliminate “packages” because
the average shoe fits no-one
 Separate housing from services
 Because we can — tools never
before available
 Because we must — economic
times, growing demands, what
we can afford, mission
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
How Much Market
Are We Leaving On The Table?
Or who are we failing to serve?
The Challenges – Home Care
 Making the leap off-campus
 Mass to support infrastructure
 Technology
 Management
 Added offerings
 Staffing, wages, consequent
fees
 Commitment
 The Leader, The Will
 Resources
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
The Challenges – Housing
HOUSING YOU OWN AND CONTROL
 Understanding essential
elements to include
 Controlling price, value
 Location
NORCS AND
OTHER DENSE SETTINGS
 No point of control:
individuals’ decision
 The market, sales,
communications
The Challenges:
Assessment, Care Management
 Structure:
 Membership Fee? Fee-for-Service?
 Characteristics, what is included, gaining acceptance
 Establishing high quality, successful plans and outcomes
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Three Business Lines –
Alone or Forming One Structure
 Key components for the future
 Each is showing up as critical components on many CCRC
campuses
 Assessments assure appropriate services to residents,
reduce re-hospitalization even when home care and other
services are contracted
 How to move them over the threshold?
The Age Wave
Sea Changes
 Demographic
 Political
 Medical
 Technological
 Societal
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Stock market plunge/recession (2008)
In 2014, we asked 200 industry
leaders across the country…
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LeadingAge NY
[email protected]
5/19/15
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Time machine to the future…
Sea Changes | Demographic
Biomedical breakthroughs and advances in disease prevention
continue to decrease mortality rates.
2015
Major numerical increases in the 85+ world population growth is
in countries such as China and India.
2020
The 85+ US population spirals from
3.3 million in 1990 to 23.3 million
in 2020, representing an over 600%
increase in this vulnerable age group.
2025
Japan experiences a 274 percent
increase in the 80+ population
between 1990 and 2025.
2035
Oldest living person celebrates
140th birthday!
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Sea Changes | Political
World sees “Third Age Party” established.
2015
Republican party splintered-in-half due to infighting regarding
social security benefits between the
young and the old.
2020
State retirement age revised to 75
years in Europe, and Japan.
2025
America’s second woman
president, Chelsea Clinton,
takes the oath.
2035
International “Junger Party” born.
Sea Changes | Medical
Scientists discover means to “Switch off Alzheimer’s gene” Alzheimer’s disease gene therapy begins.
Cancer and AIDS follow.
2015
Home testing kits for Alzheimer’s gene fly off of the pharmacy
shelves.
2020
Incidence of other conditions such as arthritis and heart disease
radically evaporate as
Medical/DNA research finally
conquers key causes of
death in older persons.
2025
Special care units occupancy
levels plummet.
2035
Life expectancy rises to 150 years+.
[email protected]
12
LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Sea Changes | Technological
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Apple/Jobs Foundation fund
research for creation of the first “I-Care.”
2015
Apple iGlasses provide wearer with streaming data from
medication reminders to facial recognition and names.
2020
30% of single women over the age of 85 have
a robotic cat, named Robokoneko.
2025
Apple’s iTechnology group beta tests wearable biometric
screening called iT Depends.
2035
I-CARE Robotics becomes standard feature in new homes… and
cars.
Sea Changes | Social
Age segregation declared unconstitutional by Supreme Court.
2015
Older consumers resent concept of age segregated housing as an
environment of choice.
2020
Former Assisted Living communities open doors to all generations
requiring care and support.
2025
TIME magazine declares “Is Retirement Dead?”
2035
CCRCs demolished under new Federal program called
2-old for you-2.
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
1985
To put this in perspective: 28 years ago:
 Calculators cost $200
 There was no global internet.
 There were no cell phones.
 The first laptop computers had just been introduced.
 The most powerful personal computer available was less
powerful than your current cell phone.
 Compact discs had been developed, but were still several
years from mass production; vinyl records were still the
dominant form of musical distribution.
 Cordless telephones were novel, as were answering
machines, and microwave ovens.
How do we look for
early predictors
of change?
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Shift from total control
to partnering
Shift from things to
experiences
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
The marketplace wants
to stay at home…
however they define it.
Aging in Place | Unit Design
Apartment for Life
large windows, low
sills
sheltered balcony
medicine cabinet
location for
access/light
second bedroom option
for caregiver
drawer dishwasher
hand held
shower wand
doors swing out
for safety
“easy reach” linen
closet
w/d shelving
transfer
tub/shower
emergency outlet for
medical equipment
[email protected]
bedroom large
enough for two
single bed option
shower stall with
space for portable
shower chair
side-by-side
refrigerator
full height “easy reach”
pantry cabinet
electric oven with
front controls
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
The Fully Integrated Home
The Fully Integrated Home
Smart Windows
Multi-Tasking Countertops
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Accommodating Lifelong Living
 Adapt environment to user by moving traditionally fixed items
 Maximize individual’s independent performance of daily tasks
Pressalit
Specialized Dementia Design for Cognition
House for Betty®
[email protected]
18
LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Demand for existing
products will decline as
we offer more options
and services.
Incremental Re-invention
U.S. Dept. of Veterans Affairs
Danville, IL
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Rehabilitation and/or Palliative Care
is the Focus on Long Term Care
Moorings Park | Wellness Center
Senior consumers will
demand the best service
and value… whoever
provides it.
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Leverage CCRC Resources by “Hosting”
C.C. Young: The Point, Center for Arts & Education | Dallas, TX
Leverage Resources | Inviting Broader
Community In
Fairhaven Retirement Community | Sykesville, MD
[email protected]
Cumberland Woods Village | McCandless, PA
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Leverage Resources | Partner or
Integrate with Non-Senior Providers
NCPH CCRC | Foster City, CA
Age-Friendly Community | Retail Integration
Crystal Springs Community | Annapolis, MD
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Accountable Healthcare
Seniors will expect a
continuity of lifestyle.
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Choices
Great Room
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Lifestyle Homes
Sports and Entertainment
Messy Painter
Courtesy of National Senior League.
Exercise and Yoga
Diversity of Models | Lifestyle Choices
Culture/Lifestyle Targeted

Lifestyle driven with shared
values and experiences

Family may not be support
structure

Niche markets
RainbowVision Santa Fe
Santa Fe, NM
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Diversity of Models | Co-housing
 Retiring with friends
 Small scale, “in” community
 Self-planned and designed
 Community reliance for services
Westwood Cohousing, Asheville NC
Harmony Village Cohousing, Golden CO
Wild Sage Cohousing, Boulder CO
Silver Sage Cohousing, Boulder CO
Diversity of Models | Product Options
Villa Buildings

10-12 units / building with
parking below

All corner units (4/floor)

Attempts to appeal to cottage
customer where density is an issue

Product variety
NewBridge on the Charles
Dedham, MA
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
What could the future
look like?
Natural Outback Community sponsored by:
 Phoenix University
 Dr. Scholl’s & Birkenstock
 Apple Computer
 The Jerry Garcia Foundation
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Our business affiliates Harvard
and New York University offer:
 Online MBAs…
in just 6 weeks
 Chess masters
 Film-making…
you can be the star
Bring back the Dead:
 Holographic concert
headlined by The Grateful
Dead and a reunited virtual
Beatles
Intergenerational activities:
 Recreational storytelling
 Monthly show and tell days
in various languages
Our grass is greener and we
smoke it!
[email protected]
28
LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Local native extremist,
Ted Nugent, educates you
in organic and extreme outback
living:
 Family time - Grow your
own food
 Join in extreme sports in a
virtual environment
 Relax with yoga and
meditation, and herbal
treatments
Enjoy our multiple locations:
 Enjoy the natural luxuries of
the fully equipped human
habitat biosphere with
rainforest, desert, ocean,
marsh, and agriculture biomes
 High tech vs. low tech living all
in one
 City Center
 Or timeshare them all!
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Enjoy our travel partners:
 Leave the driving to us
 Have your own “cyclopod” and
get urban street cred
Enjoy our cloud culture with digital translator connecting people to
dialogue, deals and distribution.
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Our business partners eBay,
Fortune and CraigsList can
provide a virtual work
environment to stay connected
and work for those who can’t
find their nest egg.
Visit our locations:
Former Hyatt Regency, Atlanta, GA… see a
vertical farm in the atrium
65-72 floors of Freedom Tower, NYC
Former World Expo, Shanghai, China
San Diego Zoo (we let the dolphins go home!)
[email protected]
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
And visit www.neverthatold.org for our
newest community in development.
Museum
With Café
Community
Restaurant
Senior
Center
Community
Cultural Center
Senior
Housing
Satellite College
Multi-family
Housing Above
[email protected]
Community
Health
Clinic
Ground Floor
PACE and
Small House
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LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
We don’t have to do it alone
We can leave a smaller footprint
We can make a difference in new and
unlikely ways
We can have a broader appeal
It can be fun
[email protected]
33
LeadingAge NY
5/19/15
Thank You
[email protected]
34

LeadingAge NY - LeadingAge New York

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