New Website EBWR13 Exec Summary 18Apr14

EBWR 2013!
Section 1 Executive Summary
Section 1
Executive Summary
The World Ready for LEVs
Big Time
As the world economy lurches
from bad to not so bad with no
clear direction, governments
are still prone to push the can
down the road regarding large
sovereign debt and policies
that stifle economic growth. But
the LEV is beginning to surge
and looks like it is ready to take
on new territories like the USA,
South America, Australia and
Africa. China is still number
one with annual sales of thirty
million plus out to the distant
horizon and Europe is heading
toward two million soon.
Even though EBWR inputs,
from USA LEV companies, to a
sales survey was minimal, the
most significant input was that
2013 was starting out with
terrific sales. Thus EBWR says
USA EB sales are accelerating.
Contacts with several Brazil EB
companies produce no
information but EBWR notes
that a couple of USA
companies are setting up
stores in places like Chile.
Australia seems to be taking a
more positive approach to the
EB. And South Africa is the
leader in EB enthusiasm,
though numbers are small, for
the African continent. India is
working to improve electricity
infrastructure needed to
support LEVs that inhibited
sales in the past because of
power outages.
Thus EBWR concludes the
world is ready for LEVs big
time.
Another indicator is that auto
companies in Europe are
beginning to offer EB and ES
products under their own label
and in their auto stores. That is
a paradigm shift of the first kind
and will be interesting to follow.
Recall that famous auto guru,
Lee Iacocca ex CEO of
Chrysler, failed in his attempt to
sell his EV Global Motors EB to
car dealers in the USA.
Section Summaries
Will the price of gasoline ever rise to a level, say 1,000 cents/gallon, to make the internal combustion engine
too expensive to operate and open the market wider for two and four wheel electric vehicles? Time will tell.
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EBWR 2013!
Section 1 Executive Summary
E l e c t r i c Ve h i c l e
Association is
pioneering new
grounds with
committee activities
on
global
performance
standards, EB
training courses and
improving the LEV
regulatory climate.
LEVA is on the way
to becoming the
Society
of
A u t o m o t i v e
Engineers (SAE) of
the e-bike industry.
The China Blue book
Electric bikes are for families really. Germany
on the auto industry
shows the Chinese
Section 2 Global Events /
are dead serious to move
L i g h t E l e c t r i c Ve h i c l e
China into EVs with
Association
government support of the
The challenge of the 56.5mpg
electric car and charging
by 2025 auto standard in the
infrastructure. Update on
USA is pushing new internal
climate change shows bad
combustion engine designs to
news/good news scenarios that
make it possible to reach this
keep that issue in the uncertain
legislated goal. This could
range, per EBWR.
inhibit acceptance of LEVs and
EVs but unlikely per EBWR.
Section 3 Worldwide LEV
The LEV train has already left
Market Assessment
the station and the EV and
China EB sales reports for
EREV (Extended Range EV
2012 were mixed with numbers
like the Chevy Volt) are about
as low as 22 million. EBWR is
to leave the station. Light
c o n fi d e n t t h a t C h i n a w i l l
continue to grow, but more
slowly, with worldwide sales
possible to cross the 40 million
unit mark in 2015. Jay Townley,
respected bicycle industry
a u t h o r i t y, p r o v i d e s h i s
assessment of the LEV
business, and it is positive.
Professor Chris Cherry at
U n i v e r s i t y o f Te n n e s s e e ,
Knoxville reports on an EB
ride-share experiment at the
University. Susanne Brüsch
reports on her EB tour of
Mongolia proving EBs can be
used anywhere in the world,
along with an upward EB trend
report on Europe. EBWR list of
the top EB and bicycle
companies worldwide shows
the dominance of the Chinese
brands in this business.
Section 4 Worldwide Electric
Bike Activities
Ed Benjamin says worldwide
bicycle population will be 50%
electric in the future. Jay
Townley offers tables of bicycle
consumption and demographic
use that show interesting
trends. Mike Fritz reviews the
h i s t o r y o f U l t r a M o t o r,
highlighting many changes as a
new startup matures. Frank
Jamerson reviews the historical
origins of the worldwide EB
business. The Electric Vehicle
Symposium, 2012 Los Angeles,
EVS26, paper by Benjamin/
Jamerson on “The Worldwide
Electric Powered Two Wheel
Market” is included.
Section 5 Marketing and
Servicing Electric Bikes
Ed Benjamin discusses EB
distribution in the USA. Several
EB company leaders offer their
own ideas on how to succeed
in the EB business. This is a
very optimistic trend as these
leaders are all successful in
Koga Dutch-style comfort pedelec Germany
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EBWR 2013!
Section 1 Executive Summary
their own shop. EBWR include
articles, from earlier editions,
on classic marketing and EB
seller organization linkages and
o w n e r ’s m a n u a l t h a t a r e
timeless and valuable reading
to all in the business.
Section 6 Electric Bikes by
Country / Region
USA EB models are improving
with Pedego, Optibike and
Prodeco highlighted. Qiuning
Wang and Chris Cherry provide
insights into the China EB
market from their studies of EB
usage in Beijing. The UK
market is just awakening and
India electric scooter sales are
expected to rebound if electric
power generation becomes
more reliable. Japan market
has recovered after the
tsunami disaster and South
Korea is just entering the EB
business with Korean made
products.
Section 7 Electric Scooters
and Motorcycles
Electric Scooter sales are
below expectations but Taiwan
is moving ahead with subsidies
EBWR never dreamed that Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington DC
would have a bike path down the middle.Anything is possible in
Washington! Bikes Belong
to energize ES sales and
usage. Subsidies are also
being tried in India. Brammo,
Current Motor and Vectrix offer
high speed scooters, that are
closer to motorcycles, and may
be getting sales traction.So the
ES/EM business may be
getting more interesting as
excellent product offerings are
Someone in California proposes to install two-way bike lanes in California cities. What a nice idea but will it
happen? Bikes Belong
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EBWR 2013!
Section 1 Executive Summary
Pedelecs can be used on dates also. (Kettler)
there, but more customers
need to be found.
Section 8 Four Wheel
Electric Vehicles
California has a new ZEV
mandate that the auto
companies are going to fight as
EBWR13 heads into print.
General Motors will offer the
Cadillac ELR in 2014, an EREV
with the technology of the Volt.
Surveys have the Volt ahead of
everyone on customer
happiness and ahead of the
Prius plug in hybrid. The EV
and hybrid offerings continue to
grow with sales still in the
modest category, compared to
popular ICE models. National
Renewable Energy Laboratory
has programs on vehicle-grid
integration and upgrading the
electrical grid for growth of
electric transportation. China
targets 500,000 EVs by 2015.
Section 9 Battery / Fuel Cell /
Motor Technology
Battery Technology- Progress
on connector and charger
technology is needed
according to Ed Benjamin.
USA battery companies are in
turmoil with bankruptcy of
A123, Valence, ECD/Ovonic,
EnerDel and Boston
P o w e r, m o s t o f t h e
prominent players in the
Lithium Ion business.
New batteries are under
development, Energy
Power Systems pseudo
bipolar lead-acid, and
ready for production,
PowerGenix nickel-zinc.
Satki3
has
a
revolutionary scheme to
improve lithium ion using
s o l i d s t a t e t h i n fi l m
technology.
Fuel Cell TechnologyFuel cell production cars
are coming with two major
partnerships committed to get
them on the road in 2015. Ford,
Daimler, Nissan is one and
Toyota, BMW is the other.
General Motors has a FCEV
experiment underway in
Hawaii, where the goal is to
make Hawaii totally
independent from oil by use of
FCEVs exclusively. Hydrogen
is available from commercial
water electrolyzers, much
improved now, and sewer gas
conversion that is operational
in California.
Motor Technology- EB
drive unit business has
evolved into a major
activity as companies
supply OEMS as well as
retailers with kits. The
major players, outside of
China, are: Heinzmann,
BionX, and Bosch, with
SRAM and Höganäs as
new players. IDBike and
BEAMts torque sensors
are explained as an
important part of the
pedelec class of EB.
Robert Larkin provides
future directions for motor/
controller/interface
s y s t e m s . Te c h n o l o g y
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moves ahead in the LEV
business just as in the car EV
business. This bodes well for
future sales in both two and
four wheel electrics.
Section 10 Electric Bike
Regulations Worldwide
Electric bike regulations are still
evolving with more work
needed to provide rules that
are sensible and will encourage
EB usage. New York state has
banned EBs, a backward step,
though it is being ignored by
EB riders and law enforcement.
The European Union has kept
the 250W motor size for EBs
needing no license and allows
higher speed bikes, or mopeds,
with licensing. Australia has
moved from 200W to 250W
EBs as legal. Japan has
relaxed its rules some. China
has more rules in place to
improve EB product safety and
performance.
Section 11 Solar Bike and
Car Races
The 2012 Solar Challenge Car
Race was won by University of
Michigan with second to Iowa
State University and third by
small
EBWR 2013!
Section 1 Executive Summary
Principia College. But the Solar
Bike Rayce was not held in
2011 and 2012 due to lack of
competitors. This is sad since
this race for high schoolers was
a good learning experience for
those interested in things
mechanical and electrical and
helped students decide on an
engineering career. EBWR
suggests LEV companies get
involved to put the Solar Bike
Rayce on the road again as it is
an investment in future talent.
Section 12 Worldwide
Exhibitions / Information
Sources
This section includes lists of
bicycle exhibitions and
conferences that include
electric bikes, books on electric
bikes, internet and other
locations for LEV information.
S e c t i o n 1 3 Te c h n i c a l
D e fi n i t i o n s / C u r r e n c y
Exchange
As the title says.
Section 14 Authors /
Contributors
/
Acknowledgments
EBWR has the help
and support of many
people in the industry
generous with their
time to provide
information and articles
for which we are
deeply grateful for their
effort.
Electric Bike and
Electric Scooter
Definitions Revisited
We are at year 20 of
the growing electric
bike business and, not
s u r p r i s i n g l y, t h e
number of descriptors
of these machines is
also growing. EBWR
will attempt to capture
what these machines are
called by listing the
descriptors used of the
principal generic types. Included are scooters that
by definition are motorized
two wheelers that have NO
pedals.
Electric Bikes with
throttle activation are
called:
E-bikes or E-Bikes or ebikes or ebikes or EB
Power On Demand (POD)
Scooter-Style Electric
Bikes (SSEB) found mainly
in China only - but name
also used by some
importers Chinese name in Pinyin
(system to write Chinese in
Jay Leno rides an Ultra Motor A2B
Roman Alphabet)--Dian
(from Jay Leno’s Garage on YouTube).
Dong Che is the
EBs now acceptable for movie/TV
contraction of Dian Dong Zi
celebrities to buy and use.
Xing Che and the name for
all types of electric bikes in
Electric Bikes with Motor
China, including ebikes and
activated by pedal action are
SSEB.
called:
Pedelec (contraction of PEDal
ELEctric Cycle)
Power Assist System, the
original PAS Yamaha
system
Electric Power Assist
Cycle (EPAC) used in
European regulations
Scooters with
platforms to standup, or with small
seats, are called:
Electric Mini Scooters
or Mini Scooters or
Micro Scooters
Even Santa Claus can use an electric bike to deliver
presents.(www.pd-f.de)
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Scooters that look
like Vespa gasoline
scooters are called:
Electric Scooters or
Electric Motor Scooters
Chinese name in
Pinyin--Dian Mo is the
contraction of Dian
EBWR 2013!
Section 1 Executive Summary
Long Range Prediction
Update
EBWR07 (2004), had a
prediction that 100 million EBs
may be reached in five to ten
years (2009-2014) and it looks
like an overreach miss on that
prediction as EBWR13 projects
2014 at 37 million.
EBWR13 prediction is that
2015 will see 40 million EBs
sold worldwide. As ESs ramp
up, EBWR estimates that
annual worldwide LEV sales,
called EPTWs then, will be at
270 million in 2050 and 800
million by 2100.
New cargo pedelec from the high-end German e-bike brand Riese &
Mueller (Riese und Mueller I www.pd-f.de)
Dong Qing Mo for Electric
Scooter (Vespa Style) and also
for Dian Dong Mo Tuo Che for
Electric Motorcycle. SSEB and
Dian Mo very often refer to the
same vehicle in China. Motorcycles
Electric Motorcycles look like
gasoline motorcycles with
speeds up to 50 to over
6 0 m p h . T h e Ve c t r i x a n d
Current Motor offerings are
called scooters or maxiscooters even though they look
like and have speeds similar to
motorcycles. But there are
those like Brammo that look
like a Harley Davidson , the
real thing.
Some advice
Of course there are also
electric motorcycles that try to
emulate the power and
performance, 60+ mph top
speed, of a gasoline powered
motorcycle. These are also
called motorbikes by the media
and others. But an electric bike
is a motorbike as well, and in
fact an electric scooter is a
motorbike also. The reader
should now realize that many
word descriptors are allowed
for all these wonderful electric
machines. Just be sure you
look at a photo, or see the
actual machine, before you
really know what it does, or is. You need to know the meaning
of “is”.
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The future two wheelers will not
look like todays EBs or ESs
and will likely be called Electric
P o w e r e d Tw o - W h e e l e r s
(EPTW). The EPTW may look
more like the GM/Segway/
SAIC Electric Networked
Vehicle (EN-V) that is found in
Section 3 of this report. Surely
EPTWs will be easier to use,
pathways will be built for them,
and the public will use them
exclusively for short trips and
use more efficient public
transport and hydrogen fuel cell
cars for long trips. Or is all of
this fiction? We will never
know.
But our children's
children's children's children
will know since they will be
living in 2100. Leave a note
for them that EBWR made
this long range prediction in
2013.