State of the Retail Q1 2012

State of the U.S. Online Retail Economy in Q1 2012
May 2012
Gian Fulgoni, Chairman, comScore, Inc.
Andrew Lipsman, VP Industry Analysis, comScore, Inc.
Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 2 business days of today’s webinar
Data sourced from comScore’s global panel of 2 million Internet
users via behavioral tracking and custom surveys
2 million person panel
360°View of Consumer Behavior
Web Visiting
& Search
Behavior
Online
& Offline
Buying
Analysis Parameters
Online
Advertising
Exposure
Advertising
Effectiveness
Transactions
Media & Video
Consumption
PANEL
Demographics,
Lifestyles
& Attitudes
Mobile Internet
Usage & Behavior
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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
E-Commerce data includes all worldwide buying on U.S.
sites

Unless explicitly stated otherwise, the term e-Commerce
refers to online retail spending, as measured by
comScore, which excludes travel, autos and auctions

Behavioral activity through March 2012 measured via the
fixed Internet

Survey conducted week of April 30, 2012 (n=1987)

Consumer Measurements:
–
Site Visitation
–
Online Buying
–
Attitudes and Sentiment
–
Demographic Segments
–
Mobile and portable e-Commerce
Validation of comScore Sales Data:
Comparison of comScore data to U.S. Department of Commerce
Quarterly U.S. e-Commerce Growth* vs. YA
Source: comScore & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)
60%
comScore Estimate of DOC
Dept. of Commerce (DOC)
50%
% Growth vs. YA
40%
30%
Correlation: 0.93
20%
10%
0%
2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012
- Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1
-10%
-20%
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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*Note: To be consistent with DOC, comScore estimate excludes
travel and event tickets but includes auction fees and autos.
State of the Economy
A Review of Key Macroeconomic Trends
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
4
Retail e-Commerce spending is up +17% year over year, already
posting $44 billion in sales through Q1 2012
U.S. e-Commerce Dollar Sales Growth ($ Billions)
Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
+14%
+12%
-2%
+17%
+19%
+22%
+26%
+29%
$72
Travel
Retail
$30
$93
$40
$51
$171
$77
$69
$61
$42
2002
2003
+26%
$67
+12%
$84
+9%
$80
-5%
$85
+6%
$142
+10%
+13%
+28%
+26%
2004
$82
$94 +11%
+20%
+33%
$53
$214 $209 $228
$200
$143
$117
$256
+9%
+7%
+24%
$102
$123 +20% $130 +6% $130 0%
+24%
$162 +14%
$70
$26
+10%
$44 +17%
2005
2006
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
2007
5
2008
2009
2010
2011
Q1
2012
Both e-Commerce and retail sales showed solid growth in Q1, with online
nearly 3 times the growth rate of total retail on apples-to-apples basis
Quarterly e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA
Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
23%
23%
19%
17%
17%
13%
11%
10%
11%
6%
0%
-1%
14%
13%
9%
3%
-3%
12%
14%
9%
-2%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012
When excluding autos, gas and
food/beverage, Q1 2012 retail growth
was up +6% versus 2011
Quarterly Retail & Food Services Sales Growth* vs. YA
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC)
4%
4%
3%
5%
4%
6%
2%
1%
2%
8%
7%
5%
8%
7%
7%
7%
5%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012
-7%
-8%
-10% -9%
*Note: The U.S. Department of Commerce calculation includes total
retail and food service sales, which also includes motor vehicles and
parts dealers.
6
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
As consumers continue to shift their spending to the Internet, the
overall e-Commerce share of spending approaches 10%
e-Commerce Share of Corresponding Consumer Spending*
Source: comScore for e-Commerce & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) for Retail
9.4%
10.0%
8.6%
9.0%
e-Commerce Share
8.0%
7.4% 7.3%
6.0%
3.0%
8.1%
5.1%
4.3%
5.3%
4.5%
4.6%
4.3%
4.0%
3.7%
5.3%
5.0%
8.0%
7.7% 7.6%
5.9%
4.0%
7.7%
6.4% 6.7%
7.0%
5.0%
7.6% 7.7%
8.9%
6.3%
5.9%
6.5% 6.6%
6.8%
6.9%
7.1% 7.1%
e-Commerce share peaks in
colder seasons (Q4 & Q1)
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
*Note: e-Commerce share is shown as a percent of DOC’s Total Retail Sales excluding Food
Service & Drinking, Food & Bev. Stores, Motor Vehicles & Parts, Gasoline Stations and Health &
Personal Care Stores.
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Overall e-Commerce dollar sales have posted double-digit gains in every
quarter since Q4 2010 and are now well ahead of pre-recession levels
e-Commerce Dollar Sales ($ Billions)
Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
% Chg vs. YA
+13%
+6%
-3%
0%
-1%
+3%
+10%
+9%
$33.9
$30.6
$30.3
+9%
+11%
Compared to pre-recession levels
(Q1 2008), total retail in Q1 2012 is$43.4
up 10%...
$39.0
$38.1
Billions ($)
-2%
$31.0
$30.2
+12%
+14%
+13%
+14%
+17%
$49.7
$44.3
$38.0
$37.5
$36.3
$32.9
$32.1
e-Commerce is up +42%
$29.6
Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Consumer Perceptions of the Economy
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Overall consumer sentiment improved for the second straight quarter to best
level in three years, but about half of respondents in April still consider the
economy ‘poor’
Q. How would you rate economic conditions today?
Source: comScore Surveys
Percent of Consumers Who View The Economy as Poor
77%
68%
Jan-09
Apr-09
66%
Jul-09
61%
Oct-09
61%
Jan-10
59%
Apr-10
62%
61%
52%
Jul-10
Oct-10
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Jan-11
59%
Apr-11
60%
Jul-11
62%
Aug-11
60%
Oct-11
54%
Jan-12
49%
Apr-12
Concern over unemployment dropped to 26% in April, as nearly half
of consumers cited rising prices as their top economic issue
Percent of Respondents Citing Their One Most Important Issue
Q. Based on your current situation, which one of the following economic conditions most concerns you?
Source: comScore Surveys
54%
50%
46%
44%
Unemployment /
Job Security
40%
Rising
Prices
32%
48%
45%
43%
42%
42%
42%
33%
32%
30%
36%
37%
38%
37%
37%
31%
28%
29%
Financial
Markets
Real Estate / Home
Values
15%
13% 13%
13%
7%
8%
29%
8%
8%
9%
9%
10%
10%
9%
8%
26%
27%
12%
11%
12%
10%
7%
7%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
11%
Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Retailer and Product Category Overview
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Most retail categories showed very strong (+15% or better) growth
versus year ago
Q1 2012 e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA by Retail Category
Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
Q1 2012
Growth
vs. YA
Product Category
Digital Content and Subscriptions
Very Strong
Consumer Electronics (x PC Peripherals)
Very Strong
Jewelry & Watches
Very Strong
Event Tickets
Very Strong
Books & Magazines
Very Strong
Apparel & Accessories
Very Strong
Computers/Peripherals/PDAs
Very Strong
Sport & Fitness
Very Strong
Home & Garden
Very Strong
Video Games, Consoles & Accessories
Very Strong
Office Supplies
Strong
Consumer Packaged Goods
Strong
Flowers, Greetings & Misc. Gifts
Strong
Furniture, Appliances & Equipment
Strong
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Q1 growth rates of 15% or
higher
Q1 growth rates of 10-14%
Those in the top-20% of households, the heaviest e-Commerce buyers,
accounted for nearly 75% of all e-Commerce dollars spent in Q1
Share of e-Commerce Dollars Spent Per Household
(shown by spending quintiles)
Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
100%
80%
74%
60%
40%
20%
16%
7%
3%
1%
Next 20%
Bottom 20%
0%
Top 20%
Next 20%
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Next 20%
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About half of online transactions involved free shipping in Q1, the
highest percentage of free shipping seen in a non-Q4 quarter
Percentage of e-Commerce Transactions with
Free Shipping
Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement
61%
60%
59%
39%
40%
41%
51%
53%
57%
60%
49%
47%
43%
40%
48%
51%
52%
49%
Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12
% Transactions with Paid Shipping
% Transactions with Free Shipping
59% of consumers stated in a recent survey* that if they reached the end of an e-Commerce transaction and
free shipping was not offered, they would cancel their purchase at that retailer
*comScore survey – Apr 2012
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Led by Amazon’s +29% growth, many retail sites posted double-digit
gains in unique visitors in Q1 vs. a year ago
Avg. Monthly UVs (MM) on Select Retail Sites in Q1 2012
Source: comScore Media Metrix, U.S.
Amazon Sites
107.4
Apple.com
48.3
Wal-Mart
39.7
Netflix.com
+8%
19.9
+12%
15.7
Sears.com
13.4
Hewlett Packard
12.9
Macy's Inc.
12.9
+25%
+9%
24.7
Best Buy Sites
+29%
+18%
28.2
Target Corporation
Ticketmaster
Y/Y Change
+42%
+23%
-21%
+26%
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Flash-sale sites continue to grow their audiences, with Woot.com and
Zulily.com leading the pack
Avg. Monthly UVs (000) on Select Flash Sale Sites in Q1 2012
Source: comScore Media Metrix, U.S.
Y/Y Change
Woot.com
2,244
+93%
Zulily.com
2,242
+85%
HauteLook.com
1,504
Gilt Groupe
1,125
Ideeli.com
+63%
924
Totsy.com
+164%
683
MyHabit.com
DailyCandy
+46%
1,026
OneKingsLane.com
BeyondTheRack.com
+85%
+1,051%
610
N/A
482
-11%
454
-23%
Kids clothing site Totsy.com continues to skyrocket in numbers,
reaching 683,000 UVs in Q1 (up 1,051% vs. 2011)
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Groupon continues to hold the lead in monthly unique visitors among
coupon sites, and grew +19% from 2011
Avg. Monthly UVs (MM) on Select Coupon Sites in Q1 2012
Source: comScore Media Metrix, U.S.
Groupon
12.5
WhaleShark Media*
7.2
Coupons, Inc.
7.0
LivingSocial
5.5
CouponAlert.com
DealsPL.US
SavingStar.com
Y/Y Change
2.7
BrandSampleNetwork.com
1.4
SmartSource.com
1.4
+18%
-15%
+36%
1.7
1.4
N/A
+356%
1.8
MyPoints Sites
+19%
N/A
+6%
N/A
+9%
* - WhaleShark Media includes RetailMeNot.com, Deals2Buy.com,
CouponShare.com and CouponsEven.com
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Validated Campaign Essentials (vCE)
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Arguably the Most Important Digital Advertising Initiative To Date:
Making Measurement Make Sense (3MS) Mission
 Reduce costs of doing business due to
complexity of digital advertising ecosystem
 ‘Single Tag’ solution to reduce complexity
 Improve reporting of ad exposure
 Bolster confidence that ads delivered are
actually visible
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Branding advertisers on TV are accustomed to audience
guarantees and expect the same in digital
Accuracy of cookie-based digital plan delivery is problematic:
Cookie Deletion
X
Cookie Proliferation
Cookies Are Not People
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Source: comScore 2011
comScore’s measurement foundation based on validated
impressions measured at person level
Information on Media Plan Delivery
Accessible on Daily Basis
Impressions
or
in-view
correct
geography
In past 5 years,
conducted 2,600
Studies for 120
Advertisers
Across 28
Countries
brand safety
fraud
target audience
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Is In-Flight Media Plan Delivery Adjustment Working?
For Kellogg’s the early results say ABSOLUTELY
Implemented new Digital strategy and analytics in the first half of 2011.
ROI results from our first two Brand Market Mix Models have just come in.
Brand 1 ROI
Brand 2 ROI
6x
5X
3X
2X
ROI
ROI
Year 1
Year 2
Year 1
1H 2011
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Year 2
1H 2011
comScore vCE Charter Study
18 campaigns
2 billion impressions
400k sites
Allstate
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Charter Findings
In-view ad rates across Top 500 sites
Show Substantial Variation
98%
69%
7%
MINIMUM
AVERAGE
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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MAXIMUM
Large sites scored better than long-tail sites
Percentage of Ads Served In-View
US
77%
74%
70%
US
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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61%
Digital Ad Economics:
The Good Guys Aren’t Necessarily Winning
Low correlation of In-View Rates & CPM
R²=0.0373
An equally as weak correlation was also observed between CPM
and ability to hit a primary demographic target
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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There is good news for advertisers and publishers
 Analogous to TV audience guarantees
 Eliminating unseen online inventory supply
results in:
 More effective / efficient campaigns and less
waste for advertisers
 More accurate metrics for market mix models
 Better proof of digital ad effectiveness
 Increased transparency/accountability
means increased confidence in digital ….
leading to more branding ad spending
moving online
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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The Mobile Retail Landscape
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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2011: The Rise of Mobile & Tablet Commerce
Percentage of Total e-Commerce Dollars Spent via Mobile or Tablet Device
Source: comScore Mobile Measurements
9%
Spike in percentage of
e-commerce sales via
mobile coincides with
surge in tablet ownership
8%
5%
8%
6%
3% 3%
2%
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Nearly 9 million new smartphone subscribers activated in Q1, taking
the audience well over the 100 million mark
Acquisition Trend for Smartphone Subscriber Base and
Total Smartphone Subscriber Base
Source: comScore MobiLens, U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Sep-2009 to Mar-2012
New Smartphone Acquisitions (In Millions)
+7.0
Total Smartphone Subscriber Base (In Thousands)
120,000
+6.5
+6.0
100,000
+5.0
80,000
+4.0
+3.3
+2.0
+1.0
+2.9
+2.7
+3.0
+2.3 +2.3
+2.1
+1.9
+1.3 +1.3
+1.1
+3.8
+3.6
+1.3
+1.3
+1.0
+2.7
+2.9
+1.8
+3.3
60,000
+2.5
+2.1 +2.2
+2.0
+3.5
+3.1
+1.6
+2.2
+2.1 40,000
+1.4
20,000
+0.7
+0.0
0
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Accessing online retail content continues to be a fast-growing activity on
mobile devices, with users up 69 percent versus year ago
Content Categories Consumed by Mobile Phone Owners (000) & Growth vs. YA
Source: comScore MobiLens, U.S., Mar-2012
Mar-2011
Mar-2012
50,000
+50%
40,000
+58%
30,000
+69%
+66%
+61%
+59%
+47%
20,000
+52%
+36%
10,000
0
Online Retail E-Payments Credit Cards Auction Sites
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
Classifieds
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Real Estate
Listings
Bank
Accounts
Shopping
Guides
Travel Service
Mobile App access dominates Mobile Web access for most leading
pure play online retailers
Selected Leading Retailer Mobile Web Properties
Unique Visitors (000): Mobile Web + App Combined
Share of Mobile Time Spent by Retailer
App vs. Mobile Web
Source: comScore Mobile Metrix, U.S., March 2012
Source: comScore Mobile Metrix, U.S., March 2012
App
Amazon
41,215
eBay
13,351
Wal-Mart
12,673
Target
Best Buy
Barnes & Noble
3,508
18%
99%
5,471
4,319
14%
82%
6,927
Redbox
Etsy
86%
27,190
Netflix
Mobile Web
1%
18%
82%
16%
84%
5%
95%
61%
39%
95%
2,423
27%
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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5%
73%
Compared to smartphones, tablet ownership is ramping up much faster
40 Million Consumer Tablet Owners in less than 2 years
Device Ownership – Smartphones vs. Tablets
Sources: comScore MobiLens + comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg.
Device Owners (000s)
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Introducing TabLens: Monthly Media Tablet Tracking
 Monthly tracking survey of Media Tablet
ownership and usage
 6K quarterly surveys of tablet owners
 Many measures parallel to MobiLens for
smartphone comparisons
 Includes detailed device characteristics, user
demographics and on-device media
behaviors
 Syndicated monthly reporting
 Data collection ongoing since January 2012
Media Tablet: Internet connected touch
screen device with 7” + screen
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Tablet owners tend to skew to higher incomes: 6 in 10 make $75k+
U.S. Tablet Owners by Household Income
Source: comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012
% Share of Tablet Owners
45%
38%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
17%
17%
$25k to <$50k
$50k to <$75k
19%
15%
10%
7%
5%
0%
<$25k
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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$75k to <$100k
$100k+
1 in 5 tablet owners have purchased clothing or accessories from a
retailer, via their tablet device
Product Categories Purchased via Tablet Device
Sources: comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012
Clothing or accessories directly from a retailer
20%
Daily deals
11%
Books
11%
Tickets
11%
Electronics
9%
Gift certificates
8%
Food for delivery or pickup
7%
Groceries for delivery
5%
Flowers
5%
Hotel stays
5%
Airplane tickets
4%
Sports/Fitness
3%
Car rentals
3%
Auto
3%
% of tablet owners
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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What’s the impact for retailers? Tablet users are more engaged than
smartphone, and more likely to shop
Shopping Activity on Tablet vs. Smartphone
Sources: comScore MobiLens, U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012
comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012
Smartphone Owners
Tablet Owners
34%
Found Store Location
42%
22%
Compared Product Prices
41%
20%
Researched Product Features
41%
20%
Found Coupons or Deal
35%
18%
Checked Product Availability
31%
20%
Made Shopping List
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
24%
38
The ‘Showrooming’ Phenomenon
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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About 1 in 10 consumers had aided awareness of the term
‘showrooming’
“Showrooming” – verb.
Visiting a brick-and-mortar store to see a
product but instead purchasing the product
online. Shoppers may intend from the start to
purchase the product online, or may decide to
purchase online, rather than in-person, after
viewing the item at the store.
16%
12%
All respondents
8%
Men
Women
% who have heard of
'showrooming'
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
40
35% of respondents have engaged in ‘showrooming’. Most intended to
buy at brick-and-mortar but changed their mind at the store
Consumer Usage of Showrooming
Q. Based on this definition, have you ever done this activity? (showrooming)
Source: comScore Survey – April 2012
Who’s engaging in
showrooming?
…and did they plan it?
 35% of all respondents
 50% of respondents ages 25-34,
 6 in 10 ‘showroomers’ say they
the highest of any age group
originally planned to purchase at the
store, but changed their mind while
 48% of tablet owners and 43% of
there & instead bought online
smartphone owners
 32% said they went to the store always
 43% of Millenials*
intending to buy online
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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* - defined as ages 18-29
Price was the biggest driver of ‘showrooming,’ while some wanted to
see item in person before deciding to purchase
Why Consumers Are Engaging in ‘Showrooming’
Q. Which of the following describe why you utilized showrooming? (Please select all that apply)
Source: comScore Survey – April 2012
Price was better online
72%
Planned to buy online but wanted to see item(s)
in person before ordering
45%
Item was out of stock at store
24%
Would rather have item(s) shipped to home than
take home with me
18%
Was not convenient to buy in-person at the time
17%
Other
5%
% among those who engaged in 'showrooming'
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Location, Location, Location
Respondents living in urban areas were
nearly twice as likely (26%) to choose
this option than those living in suburban
or rural areas (15% for both)
Consumer Electronics and Apparel were the most popular categories
among consumers who bought via showrooming
Product Categories Most Likely to be Purchased via Showrooming
Q. Which of the following types of item have you bought online after using ‘showrooming?’
(Please select all that apply)
Source: comScore Survey – April 2012
Consumer electronics
63%
Apparel, clothing & accessories
43%
Books
29%
Appliances
22%
Toys
22%
Jewelry / watches
16%
Other
10%
% among those who engaged in 'showrooming'
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary.
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Key Takeaways
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Key Takeaways
 Quarterly e-Commerce sales have increased by double digits Y/Y for six
straight quarters, including a +17% gain in Q1 2012
– Online growth in Q1 2012 was triple the growth rate for total retail sales
– Channel shift to online appears to be increasing
 Overall consumer perception of the economy improved again this quarter, but
49% still think economic conditions are poor
– Unemployment and high prices remain top concerns
 In less than two years, tablet ownership has already risen over 40 million
– Tablet owners are more engaged and more likely to spend money online than
smartphone owners
 With continued rapid growth of smartphone owners, ‘showrooming’ is proving
to be a legitimate threat to brick-and-mortar stores
– 35% of consumers have engaged in the activity, most often to find lower
prices online
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QUESTIONS?
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