State of the Retail Q1 2012
Transcription
State of the Retail Q1 2012
State of the U.S. Online Retail Economy in Q1 2012 May 2012 Gian Fulgoni, Chairman, comScore, Inc. Andrew Lipsman, VP Industry Analysis, comScore, Inc. Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 2 business days of today’s webinar Data sourced from comScore’s global panel of 2 million Internet users via behavioral tracking and custom surveys 2 million person panel 360°View of Consumer Behavior Web Visiting & Search Behavior Online & Offline Buying Analysis Parameters Online Advertising Exposure Advertising Effectiveness Transactions Media & Video Consumption PANEL Demographics, Lifestyles & Attitudes Mobile Internet Usage & Behavior © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 2 E-Commerce data includes all worldwide buying on U.S. sites Unless explicitly stated otherwise, the term e-Commerce refers to online retail spending, as measured by comScore, which excludes travel, autos and auctions Behavioral activity through March 2012 measured via the fixed Internet Survey conducted week of April 30, 2012 (n=1987) Consumer Measurements: – Site Visitation – Online Buying – Attitudes and Sentiment – Demographic Segments – Mobile and portable e-Commerce Validation of comScore Sales Data: Comparison of comScore data to U.S. Department of Commerce Quarterly U.S. e-Commerce Growth* vs. YA Source: comScore & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) 60% comScore Estimate of DOC Dept. of Commerce (DOC) 50% % Growth vs. YA 40% 30% Correlation: 0.93 20% 10% 0% 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Q1 -10% -20% © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 3 *Note: To be consistent with DOC, comScore estimate excludes travel and event tickets but includes auction fees and autos. State of the Economy A Review of Key Macroeconomic Trends © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 4 Retail e-Commerce spending is up +17% year over year, already posting $44 billion in sales through Q1 2012 U.S. e-Commerce Dollar Sales Growth ($ Billions) Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement +14% +12% -2% +17% +19% +22% +26% +29% $72 Travel Retail $30 $93 $40 $51 $171 $77 $69 $61 $42 2002 2003 +26% $67 +12% $84 +9% $80 -5% $85 +6% $142 +10% +13% +28% +26% 2004 $82 $94 +11% +20% +33% $53 $214 $209 $228 $200 $143 $117 $256 +9% +7% +24% $102 $123 +20% $130 +6% $130 0% +24% $162 +14% $70 $26 +10% $44 +17% 2005 2006 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 2007 5 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1 2012 Both e-Commerce and retail sales showed solid growth in Q1, with online nearly 3 times the growth rate of total retail on apples-to-apples basis Quarterly e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement 23% 23% 19% 17% 17% 13% 11% 10% 11% 6% 0% -1% 14% 13% 9% 3% -3% 12% 14% 9% -2% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 When excluding autos, gas and food/beverage, Q1 2012 retail growth was up +6% versus 2011 Quarterly Retail & Food Services Sales Growth* vs. YA Source: U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) 4% 4% 3% 5% 4% 6% 2% 1% 2% 8% 7% 5% 8% 7% 7% 7% 5% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 -7% -8% -10% -9% *Note: The U.S. Department of Commerce calculation includes total retail and food service sales, which also includes motor vehicles and parts dealers. 6 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. As consumers continue to shift their spending to the Internet, the overall e-Commerce share of spending approaches 10% e-Commerce Share of Corresponding Consumer Spending* Source: comScore for e-Commerce & U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) for Retail 9.4% 10.0% 8.6% 9.0% e-Commerce Share 8.0% 7.4% 7.3% 6.0% 3.0% 8.1% 5.1% 4.3% 5.3% 4.5% 4.6% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 5.3% 5.0% 8.0% 7.7% 7.6% 5.9% 4.0% 7.7% 6.4% 6.7% 7.0% 5.0% 7.6% 7.7% 8.9% 6.3% 5.9% 6.5% 6.6% 6.8% 6.9% 7.1% 7.1% e-Commerce share peaks in colder seasons (Q4 & Q1) 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% *Note: e-Commerce share is shown as a percent of DOC’s Total Retail Sales excluding Food Service & Drinking, Food & Bev. Stores, Motor Vehicles & Parts, Gasoline Stations and Health & Personal Care Stores. © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 7 Overall e-Commerce dollar sales have posted double-digit gains in every quarter since Q4 2010 and are now well ahead of pre-recession levels e-Commerce Dollar Sales ($ Billions) Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement % Chg vs. YA +13% +6% -3% 0% -1% +3% +10% +9% $33.9 $30.6 $30.3 +9% +11% Compared to pre-recession levels (Q1 2008), total retail in Q1 2012 is$43.4 up 10%... $39.0 $38.1 Billions ($) -2% $31.0 $30.2 +12% +14% +13% +14% +17% $49.7 $44.3 $38.0 $37.5 $36.3 $32.9 $32.1 e-Commerce is up +42% $29.6 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09 Q4 '09 Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 8 Consumer Perceptions of the Economy © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 9 Overall consumer sentiment improved for the second straight quarter to best level in three years, but about half of respondents in April still consider the economy ‘poor’ Q. How would you rate economic conditions today? Source: comScore Surveys Percent of Consumers Who View The Economy as Poor 77% 68% Jan-09 Apr-09 66% Jul-09 61% Oct-09 61% Jan-10 59% Apr-10 62% 61% 52% Jul-10 Oct-10 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 10 Jan-11 59% Apr-11 60% Jul-11 62% Aug-11 60% Oct-11 54% Jan-12 49% Apr-12 Concern over unemployment dropped to 26% in April, as nearly half of consumers cited rising prices as their top economic issue Percent of Respondents Citing Their One Most Important Issue Q. Based on your current situation, which one of the following economic conditions most concerns you? Source: comScore Surveys 54% 50% 46% 44% Unemployment / Job Security 40% Rising Prices 32% 48% 45% 43% 42% 42% 42% 33% 32% 30% 36% 37% 38% 37% 37% 31% 28% 29% Financial Markets Real Estate / Home Values 15% 13% 13% 13% 7% 8% 29% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 8% 26% 27% 12% 11% 12% 10% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 11 Retailer and Product Category Overview © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 12 Most retail categories showed very strong (+15% or better) growth versus year ago Q1 2012 e-Commerce Sales Growth vs. YA by Retail Category Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement Q1 2012 Growth vs. YA Product Category Digital Content and Subscriptions Very Strong Consumer Electronics (x PC Peripherals) Very Strong Jewelry & Watches Very Strong Event Tickets Very Strong Books & Magazines Very Strong Apparel & Accessories Very Strong Computers/Peripherals/PDAs Very Strong Sport & Fitness Very Strong Home & Garden Very Strong Video Games, Consoles & Accessories Very Strong Office Supplies Strong Consumer Packaged Goods Strong Flowers, Greetings & Misc. Gifts Strong Furniture, Appliances & Equipment Strong © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 13 Q1 growth rates of 15% or higher Q1 growth rates of 10-14% Those in the top-20% of households, the heaviest e-Commerce buyers, accounted for nearly 75% of all e-Commerce dollars spent in Q1 Share of e-Commerce Dollars Spent Per Household (shown by spending quintiles) Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement 100% 80% 74% 60% 40% 20% 16% 7% 3% 1% Next 20% Bottom 20% 0% Top 20% Next 20% © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. Next 20% 14 About half of online transactions involved free shipping in Q1, the highest percentage of free shipping seen in a non-Q4 quarter Percentage of e-Commerce Transactions with Free Shipping Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement 61% 60% 59% 39% 40% 41% 51% 53% 57% 60% 49% 47% 43% 40% 48% 51% 52% 49% Q1 '10 Q2 '10 Q3 '10 Q4 '10 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 % Transactions with Paid Shipping % Transactions with Free Shipping 59% of consumers stated in a recent survey* that if they reached the end of an e-Commerce transaction and free shipping was not offered, they would cancel their purchase at that retailer *comScore survey – Apr 2012 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 15 Led by Amazon’s +29% growth, many retail sites posted double-digit gains in unique visitors in Q1 vs. a year ago Avg. Monthly UVs (MM) on Select Retail Sites in Q1 2012 Source: comScore Media Metrix, U.S. Amazon Sites 107.4 Apple.com 48.3 Wal-Mart 39.7 Netflix.com +8% 19.9 +12% 15.7 Sears.com 13.4 Hewlett Packard 12.9 Macy's Inc. 12.9 +25% +9% 24.7 Best Buy Sites +29% +18% 28.2 Target Corporation Ticketmaster Y/Y Change +42% +23% -21% +26% © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 16 Flash-sale sites continue to grow their audiences, with Woot.com and Zulily.com leading the pack Avg. Monthly UVs (000) on Select Flash Sale Sites in Q1 2012 Source: comScore Media Metrix, U.S. Y/Y Change Woot.com 2,244 +93% Zulily.com 2,242 +85% HauteLook.com 1,504 Gilt Groupe 1,125 Ideeli.com +63% 924 Totsy.com +164% 683 MyHabit.com DailyCandy +46% 1,026 OneKingsLane.com BeyondTheRack.com +85% +1,051% 610 N/A 482 -11% 454 -23% Kids clothing site Totsy.com continues to skyrocket in numbers, reaching 683,000 UVs in Q1 (up 1,051% vs. 2011) © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 17 Groupon continues to hold the lead in monthly unique visitors among coupon sites, and grew +19% from 2011 Avg. Monthly UVs (MM) on Select Coupon Sites in Q1 2012 Source: comScore Media Metrix, U.S. Groupon 12.5 WhaleShark Media* 7.2 Coupons, Inc. 7.0 LivingSocial 5.5 CouponAlert.com DealsPL.US SavingStar.com Y/Y Change 2.7 BrandSampleNetwork.com 1.4 SmartSource.com 1.4 +18% -15% +36% 1.7 1.4 N/A +356% 1.8 MyPoints Sites +19% N/A +6% N/A +9% * - WhaleShark Media includes RetailMeNot.com, Deals2Buy.com, CouponShare.com and CouponsEven.com © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 18 Validated Campaign Essentials (vCE) © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 19 Arguably the Most Important Digital Advertising Initiative To Date: Making Measurement Make Sense (3MS) Mission Reduce costs of doing business due to complexity of digital advertising ecosystem ‘Single Tag’ solution to reduce complexity Improve reporting of ad exposure Bolster confidence that ads delivered are actually visible © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 20 Branding advertisers on TV are accustomed to audience guarantees and expect the same in digital Accuracy of cookie-based digital plan delivery is problematic: Cookie Deletion X Cookie Proliferation Cookies Are Not People © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 21 Source: comScore 2011 comScore’s measurement foundation based on validated impressions measured at person level Information on Media Plan Delivery Accessible on Daily Basis Impressions or in-view correct geography In past 5 years, conducted 2,600 Studies for 120 Advertisers Across 28 Countries brand safety fraud target audience © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 22 Is In-Flight Media Plan Delivery Adjustment Working? For Kellogg’s the early results say ABSOLUTELY Implemented new Digital strategy and analytics in the first half of 2011. ROI results from our first two Brand Market Mix Models have just come in. Brand 1 ROI Brand 2 ROI 6x 5X 3X 2X ROI ROI Year 1 Year 2 Year 1 1H 2011 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 23 Year 2 1H 2011 comScore vCE Charter Study 18 campaigns 2 billion impressions 400k sites Allstate © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 24 Charter Findings In-view ad rates across Top 500 sites Show Substantial Variation 98% 69% 7% MINIMUM AVERAGE © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 25 MAXIMUM Large sites scored better than long-tail sites Percentage of Ads Served In-View US 77% 74% 70% US © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 26 61% Digital Ad Economics: The Good Guys Aren’t Necessarily Winning Low correlation of In-View Rates & CPM R²=0.0373 An equally as weak correlation was also observed between CPM and ability to hit a primary demographic target © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 27 There is good news for advertisers and publishers Analogous to TV audience guarantees Eliminating unseen online inventory supply results in: More effective / efficient campaigns and less waste for advertisers More accurate metrics for market mix models Better proof of digital ad effectiveness Increased transparency/accountability means increased confidence in digital …. leading to more branding ad spending moving online © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 28 The Mobile Retail Landscape © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 29 2011: The Rise of Mobile & Tablet Commerce Percentage of Total e-Commerce Dollars Spent via Mobile or Tablet Device Source: comScore Mobile Measurements 9% Spike in percentage of e-commerce sales via mobile coincides with surge in tablet ownership 8% 5% 8% 6% 3% 3% 2% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 30 Nearly 9 million new smartphone subscribers activated in Q1, taking the audience well over the 100 million mark Acquisition Trend for Smartphone Subscriber Base and Total Smartphone Subscriber Base Source: comScore MobiLens, U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Sep-2009 to Mar-2012 New Smartphone Acquisitions (In Millions) +7.0 Total Smartphone Subscriber Base (In Thousands) 120,000 +6.5 +6.0 100,000 +5.0 80,000 +4.0 +3.3 +2.0 +1.0 +2.9 +2.7 +3.0 +2.3 +2.3 +2.1 +1.9 +1.3 +1.3 +1.1 +3.8 +3.6 +1.3 +1.3 +1.0 +2.7 +2.9 +1.8 +3.3 60,000 +2.5 +2.1 +2.2 +2.0 +3.5 +3.1 +1.6 +2.2 +2.1 40,000 +1.4 20,000 +0.7 +0.0 0 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 31 Accessing online retail content continues to be a fast-growing activity on mobile devices, with users up 69 percent versus year ago Content Categories Consumed by Mobile Phone Owners (000) & Growth vs. YA Source: comScore MobiLens, U.S., Mar-2012 Mar-2011 Mar-2012 50,000 +50% 40,000 +58% 30,000 +69% +66% +61% +59% +47% 20,000 +52% +36% 10,000 0 Online Retail E-Payments Credit Cards Auction Sites © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. Classifieds 32 Real Estate Listings Bank Accounts Shopping Guides Travel Service Mobile App access dominates Mobile Web access for most leading pure play online retailers Selected Leading Retailer Mobile Web Properties Unique Visitors (000): Mobile Web + App Combined Share of Mobile Time Spent by Retailer App vs. Mobile Web Source: comScore Mobile Metrix, U.S., March 2012 Source: comScore Mobile Metrix, U.S., March 2012 App Amazon 41,215 eBay 13,351 Wal-Mart 12,673 Target Best Buy Barnes & Noble 3,508 18% 99% 5,471 4,319 14% 82% 6,927 Redbox Etsy 86% 27,190 Netflix Mobile Web 1% 18% 82% 16% 84% 5% 95% 61% 39% 95% 2,423 27% © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 33 5% 73% Compared to smartphones, tablet ownership is ramping up much faster 40 Million Consumer Tablet Owners in less than 2 years Device Ownership – Smartphones vs. Tablets Sources: comScore MobiLens + comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Device Owners (000s) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 34 Introducing TabLens: Monthly Media Tablet Tracking Monthly tracking survey of Media Tablet ownership and usage 6K quarterly surveys of tablet owners Many measures parallel to MobiLens for smartphone comparisons Includes detailed device characteristics, user demographics and on-device media behaviors Syndicated monthly reporting Data collection ongoing since January 2012 Media Tablet: Internet connected touch screen device with 7” + screen © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 35 Tablet owners tend to skew to higher incomes: 6 in 10 make $75k+ U.S. Tablet Owners by Household Income Source: comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012 % Share of Tablet Owners 45% 38% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 17% 17% $25k to <$50k $50k to <$75k 19% 15% 10% 7% 5% 0% <$25k © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 36 $75k to <$100k $100k+ 1 in 5 tablet owners have purchased clothing or accessories from a retailer, via their tablet device Product Categories Purchased via Tablet Device Sources: comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012 Clothing or accessories directly from a retailer 20% Daily deals 11% Books 11% Tickets 11% Electronics 9% Gift certificates 8% Food for delivery or pickup 7% Groceries for delivery 5% Flowers 5% Hotel stays 5% Airplane tickets 4% Sports/Fitness 3% Car rentals 3% Auto 3% % of tablet owners © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 37 What’s the impact for retailers? Tablet users are more engaged than smartphone, and more likely to shop Shopping Activity on Tablet vs. Smartphone Sources: comScore MobiLens, U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012 comScore TabLens U.S., 3 Mo. Avg. Jan-2012 to Mar-2012 Smartphone Owners Tablet Owners 34% Found Store Location 42% 22% Compared Product Prices 41% 20% Researched Product Features 41% 20% Found Coupons or Deal 35% 18% Checked Product Availability 31% 20% Made Shopping List © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 24% 38 The ‘Showrooming’ Phenomenon © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 39 About 1 in 10 consumers had aided awareness of the term ‘showrooming’ “Showrooming” – verb. Visiting a brick-and-mortar store to see a product but instead purchasing the product online. Shoppers may intend from the start to purchase the product online, or may decide to purchase online, rather than in-person, after viewing the item at the store. 16% 12% All respondents 8% Men Women % who have heard of 'showrooming' © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 40 35% of respondents have engaged in ‘showrooming’. Most intended to buy at brick-and-mortar but changed their mind at the store Consumer Usage of Showrooming Q. Based on this definition, have you ever done this activity? (showrooming) Source: comScore Survey – April 2012 Who’s engaging in showrooming? …and did they plan it? 35% of all respondents 50% of respondents ages 25-34, 6 in 10 ‘showroomers’ say they the highest of any age group originally planned to purchase at the store, but changed their mind while 48% of tablet owners and 43% of there & instead bought online smartphone owners 32% said they went to the store always 43% of Millenials* intending to buy online © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 41 * - defined as ages 18-29 Price was the biggest driver of ‘showrooming,’ while some wanted to see item in person before deciding to purchase Why Consumers Are Engaging in ‘Showrooming’ Q. Which of the following describe why you utilized showrooming? (Please select all that apply) Source: comScore Survey – April 2012 Price was better online 72% Planned to buy online but wanted to see item(s) in person before ordering 45% Item was out of stock at store 24% Would rather have item(s) shipped to home than take home with me 18% Was not convenient to buy in-person at the time 17% Other 5% % among those who engaged in 'showrooming' © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 42 Location, Location, Location Respondents living in urban areas were nearly twice as likely (26%) to choose this option than those living in suburban or rural areas (15% for both) Consumer Electronics and Apparel were the most popular categories among consumers who bought via showrooming Product Categories Most Likely to be Purchased via Showrooming Q. Which of the following types of item have you bought online after using ‘showrooming?’ (Please select all that apply) Source: comScore Survey – April 2012 Consumer electronics 63% Apparel, clothing & accessories 43% Books 29% Appliances 22% Toys 22% Jewelry / watches 16% Other 10% % among those who engaged in 'showrooming' © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 43 Key Takeaways © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 44 Key Takeaways Quarterly e-Commerce sales have increased by double digits Y/Y for six straight quarters, including a +17% gain in Q1 2012 – Online growth in Q1 2012 was triple the growth rate for total retail sales – Channel shift to online appears to be increasing Overall consumer perception of the economy improved again this quarter, but 49% still think economic conditions are poor – Unemployment and high prices remain top concerns In less than two years, tablet ownership has already risen over 40 million – Tablet owners are more engaged and more likely to spend money online than smartphone owners With continued rapid growth of smartphone owners, ‘showrooming’ is proving to be a legitimate threat to brick-and-mortar stores – 35% of consumers have engaged in the activity, most often to find lower prices online © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 45 QUESTIONS? Please contact us at [email protected] if you have any additional questions or comments. © comScore, Inc. Proprietary. 46 Thank You! Note: A copy of this presentation will be sent to all attendees within 2 business days of today’s webinar.