Summer - Form Wealth
Transcription
Summer - Form Wealth
SUMMER 2015 The Power of Why? BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP ® “Why?” It is a little word - only three letters, but it can convey so much. If you spend any time with a young child, you will quickly learn that this little word is one of their favorites. However, somewhere along the way we seem to lose that awareness or the thirst to know and feel the “Why?” Too often the “what” and the “how” are explained to us, but it is my assertion that while the what and how are important, they aren’t nearly as exciting. What you do and how you do it are easier to explain. But why you do what you do… that is different. It seems like an easy enough question, but most have a hard time answering it. Could you? Let me take you back several years because I, too, was in that group. Of course I certainly knew what I did for a living and how to do it, but I really never put a lot of thought into why I did it. Why did I get into financial planning? What drives me to keep learning and shaping this craft? While reflecting on this topic and trying to be more mindful of it, I happened to come upon a TED Talk (www.ted.com – great by the way - please check it out) that addressed this very topic of inspiration. After viewing it, I gained some clarity and understood that I knew the why all along, I just wasn’t being conscious of it. I won’t keep you in suspense, I can sum my why up in one word… You. Over the years, many of you have probably heard me say that, while I love the planning and the never-ending opportunities and challenges the work presents, it is the relationship with clients on which I truly thrive. To that point, it is not only getting to know you, your family, goals, concerns, your pursuits, and so forth, it is much more than that. You see, it is my belief that the true value of this profession, this craft we practice, is in becoming not only your trusted advisor and planner, but it is just as important to be your advocate for a life well lived. We aspire to walk alongside of you and help you navigate the critical financial events of your life, so we can help you enjoy that journey at every step possible. And, when that journey has a bump in the road or an unexpected turn, we expect to be there to make the adjustments and build peace of mind around how it will all work out. What we do and how we do it…. it will always be important. It is building your financial plan, your investment strategy, the way we monitor it and give it life. But just as important is for us to understand what drives you to fulfill your own Why? As I’ve already said, the what and the how are easy; it’s the why that drives us. Working with you to live out the one life you have in the best way possible… that is our why. In the end, we want to help you change your life and impact the lives of your family and others. It is a job we love and we look forward to continually doing to help you. So, in conclusion, I have only one question for you… Do you know your Why? Tyson Jon Ray, CFP® Founding Partner Luke Kuchenberg, CFP® Founding Partner 431 Geneva National Ave. South, Lake Geneva, WI 53147 (262) 686-3005 / (844) 600-3008 www.formwealth.com “The reason people find it so hard to be happy is that they always see the past better than it was, the present worse than it is, and the future less resolved than it will be.” — MARCEL PAGNOL, novelist, playwright & filmmaker Any opinions are those of Tyson Ray and/or Luke Kuchenberg and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. There is no guarantee these trends will continue. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. NEW BEGINNINGS by Michael Hoffman This is the time of year we think about the start of a new school year. It’s the time of year we hear moans from many children and cheers of delight from most parents. As a public school teacher ready to embark on my 27th year of teaching, this time of year is always one of new beginnings for me-new faces, new curriculum, and new challenges. For a group of youngsters from the Upper West Region of Ghana, Africa, this will also be a time of new beginnings, as the preschool financed by Children’s World Impact (CWI) will welcome its very first group of students in September of 2015. The preschool/daycare facility is the culmination of a multifaceted plan that began back in the spring of 2011. Recognizing the high population of widows in this region, many who are young and raising children, CWI committed to a project that would provide these women opportunities to financially support themselves and their dependent children. With the digging of a well and the construction of a production facility, widows and other women in the area are able to engage in activities that meet their needs and tap into their skill sets. Motorized grinding, roasting, and mixing machinery, purchased by CWI, allows many women the opportunity to efficiently and effectively produce the staple product of shea butter, which can be sold in local markets. Other women are engaged in baking bread with help from the industrial sized mixer, kneader, and oven financed by CWI. Not only can they sell bread locally, but they are providing bread for over 1800 students in local schools. Many women are selling clean drinking water in traditional bags, thanks to the high tech water bagging machine that CWI bought. Still others are raising and irrigating crops during the dry season in individual plots that are located behind the building. More information at: cwi.org Main production building 2 | inFORMational Freshly painted main classroom building The school is the final tie-in that will further enhance this project. It includes a main building with two very large classrooms, a walled-in kitchen building with a yard for outdoor cooking, a bathroom area with running water, a small office building, and a large play area. This facility will serve a duo purpose for the community. Not only will children be able to attend preschool here and get a head start to their education, but widows who have very young children can have these youngsters cared for while they are working at their various endeavors. With approval from the government, a feeding program will be established that will provide a hot meal daily to every child who attends. The benefits to the youth of this community will be tremendous. The impact will be felt for years to come. So, as you encourage your children and grandchildren to have a good school year, to listen to their teachers and study hard, and to do their homework, may you also think of the children in Ghana, Africa who will be stepping into a brand new beginning, thanks to the generous donors of Children’s World Impact. Children’s World Impact is independent of Raymond James. The Ordinariness Of Equity Market Corrections by Nick Murray The Ordinariness Of Equity Market Corrections We have been reminded of late that sudden sharp pullbacks in equity prices have not gone away. Indeed, they have always been with us—just not lately. At this writing over the weekend after the S&P 500 fell precipitously—at 1,970 it is about 7.5% off its all-time high, set earlier this year—we have so far experienced a phenomenon which, since 1928, has occurred somewhere between once a quarter and once a year. (See the accompanying chart, for which I am indebted to J. P. Morgan Asset Management.) At least historically, this has to date been a perfectly ordinary decline. Purists do not yet even call it a correction, a term which most investment professionals reserve to declines of 10% and more (up to 20%, which is commonly accepted as the threshold of a so-called bear market). This is certainly not a prediction that the current decline will not deepen into a correction, or even a bear market. It is in fact not a prediction of anything whatsoever—market prognostication in the short to intermediate term being quite far beyond my competence. (I experience no shame in this admission, since in my nearly half a century as an investment professional it has seemed to me to be beyond everyone’s competence.) Rather, my entire goal in this little essay is to document the frequency of declines, and the depths to which stock prices have historically ebbed. In the next breath I wish to demonstrate how fleeting these pullbacks have historically been, in terms of the average time between their low points and full recovery. The urgency of your performing this exercise with your financial advisor at the earliest practical moment lies, for me, in the fact of how exceptionally long we have gone—not to mention how far the equity market has advanced—since Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Nick Murray. FREQUENCY BY SIZE OF DRAWDOWN, 1928-2014 Threshold analyzed independently* Drawdown Threshold Historical Frequency Typical # Per Year Typical Recovery Time 20% Once per market cycle 0 20 month 10% Once per year 1 8 months 5% Once per quarter 4 2 to 3 months 3% Once per month 11 2 to 6 weeks 2% Often 18 1 to 4 weeks Source: Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. For illustrative purposes only. *Analysis based on each type (size) of drawdown being independent. For example, the market does not typically see four 5% drawdowns and one 10% drawndown in the same year, but rather those 5% drawdowns may compound into a single 10% drawdown for the year. Data are as of 1/31/15. the last correction worthy of the term (again, defined as at least a 10% decline in the S&P 500-Stock Index on a closing basis, giving no effect to dividends). The plain fact is that as I write on August 22, we have gone 1,419 calendar days without even a 10% correction. This is the third longest such run in the past half century. As the chart shows, declines of 10% or more have historically occurred on an average of once a year. Indeed (although the chart doesn’t show this) the average intra-year decline in the Index since 1980 has, according to S&P, been 14.2%. The danger is that after nearly four years without even a threshold correction, too many investors may be inclined to overreact, should we now turn out to be in the process of experiencing one. This concern is of potentially critical importance. Surprise, in my experience, is the mother of panic, And as the chart suggests, an emotional “sell” decision has historically been the wrong response on the part of a long-term, goal-focused investor, because of the relatively brief average period of time to recovery. If you are working, saving and investing over years and decades toward the great goals of life—children’s education, a retirement characterized by dignity and independence, meaningful legacies—it has always been a great mistake to react to market volatility. Thus, what really matters is not whether or not we are about to have a full-fledged correction, but how you react—or, with the guidance of an experienced advisor who may have seen many corrections come and go, how you do not react. It must be repeated that there is nothing predictive in what you have just read. This essay is an anecdotal review of events in the equity market from 1928 through this past Friday. It makes no forward-looking statement whatsoever. Thus it is always possible for an investor to fear—in what the late John Templeton called “among the four most dangerous words in investing”—that this time is different. My most heartfelt advice is that if you are feeling even a twinge of that sentiment, take it directly to your advisor. And do not be the least bit surprised if he or she responds by giving expression to four other, quite different words, which are based firmly on the totality of historical experience: “This too shall pass.” © August 2015 Nick Murray. All rights reserved. Reprinted by permission. inFORMational |3 The Future Has Already Been Born BY TYSON RAY, CFP The US middle class is shrinking. We as a country have major social issues and yet the future of stock ownership has never looked better in my opinion. Keep in mind, I did not like the market decline from 2008 and 2009, yet because we did not sell, it did not matter. I do not like the returns we got from 2014 but we did not sell and it does not matter. I am not happy with the market correction that is happening, but we are not going to sell and it does not matter. What matters is the future has already been born. Ownership of our stock portfolio over the next 15 years, I believe is the only way to protect your purchasing power - that is what matters. Why? Because the most amazing current event in the history of the world is happening every day - the vast advancement of the middle class around the world. In my opinion, the primary driver of the future of the equities market around the world will be the increasing middle class around the world. Growth of the Middle Class Percent of total population 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 79 72 61 47 28 18 1 7 INDIA (Source: JP Morgan) 0 CHINA BRAZIL 1994 2013 2030 There were fewer than 300 million middle class people in the world in 1980; today there are two billion, and in a dozen more years there may be as many as 3.6 billion. I believe the long term trends in the growth of the middle class will be the greatest driver of the equities markets around the world. Notice in the chart that from 2013 to 2030, the estimated increase in new middle class consumers will be 1,600,000,000 from just China, India and Brazil. 4 | inFORMational ® Why am I optimistic on the future of owning stocks for the long-term? It is because there will be an 80% increase in the people on the planet able to consume, purchase and/or use the products sold by the companies around the world, who have one objective - to make a profit for their shareholders. Thus those who own a diversified portfolio of the greatest companies on the planet will likely benefit from this. Said another way, the globe is incubating billions of new consumers (and investors). 80% of Americans own a car; 20% of Brazilians do. Nearly 90% of Americans own a cell phone; perhaps 30% of Indians do. The second billion smartphone users will change the world. This is the future for investors. From a hopeless addict of imported oil, this country suddenly finds itself sitting on a hundred years’ worth of cheap, clean natural gas—more than enough to make us energy independent, and more than enough to make us huge net energy exporters—thereby slashing, if not eliminating, our balance of payments deficit. Technology marches on and costs less. Moore’s Law dictates that the cost of computing will fall 97% in the next ten years. Robotics costs are already falling at a 30% compound rate while Chinese labor costs are inflating at 20%. Between technological advances and cheap natural gas, don’t be surprised if the dominant manufacturing country in the world in 2020 is us. I believe that long-term optimism is the only long-term realism—never more so than at the present moment with the advancement of technology and the development of the growing middle class around the world. We at FORM believe the only correct investment strategy to fund a 30 year retirement is to invest, or said another way - to own part of the companies around the world that will seek to benefit from future growth of the middle class. The sole goal for all retired clients is to create cash reserve accounts for your spending needs over any 12 to 24 month period so that you never have to sell in a down market. I believe the markets ride to 2030 will be full of bumps and surprises, and I believe the market will do what it has done in the past, which is reward those who don’t react to their short term emotions. Four + One = Fun… BY LUKE KUCHENBERG, CFP ® It was time. I knew it would come eventually. After two and a half years without a trusted four-legged companion, it was indeed time to add to the family. My son Jackson had started to ask for a puppy about a year ago. So, as we entered into 2015, we held a family discussion around the breakfast table one Sunday morning and decided we would start the search for a new dog. After all, Charles M. Schulz, the cartoonist from Peanuts, may have said it best, “Happiness is a warm puppy.” Well, who could disagree with that? After some back and forth, we all came to the conclusion that another yellow lab fit our family and lifestyle best. But we would make one small change - this time we would go with a little female. Those two decisions came fairly easily. However it soon became obvious that picking the name was going to be a bigger deal. We went around and around for weeks - everyone had an opinion. In the end, we settled in on what we thought was the ultimate compromise. Becki and I loved the name Stella. Jackson wanted to name her Scout or Harper, and little Lauren was adamant that we name her something fun… after all, shouldn’t all pets be named for things you love? Lauren’s choice was Lollipop. With that, it was done. Her name would be Stella Scout Lollipop - we were all winners! much as we picked her. It was love at first lick and a new Kuchenberg was adopted into the family. Those of you with puppies (or who had a puppy once upon a time) will know that the puppy stage is not easy and it lasts a long time. I am convinced that is why God made them so cute and innocent looking. How can you get mad at that face? It has been about 7 weeks now and Stella is doing wonderfully! She is already potty-trained, sleeping through the night, and she has found her favorite place to lay in the living room as we wind down every evening. What was once lost is now found - Stella has filled the hole that was left after our last pup of 14 years passed in 2013, and for that we all feel blessed. While I don’t know the future adventures we have in store, I do know a few things. First, speaking from my own life experience, Jackson and Lauren will remember their escapades with her forever. Second, Stella will provide a lot of laughs, help with some tears, and give us all she has every day. And finally, we will grow together as a family, one day at a time, one memory at a time. After what felt like forever, the time came to go get our new puppy. She was born on May 13th, so we were set for a pick up date of July 2nd. In the days leading up to the big day, the kids kept a countdown at the house: “Only one week left, Dad!” and “Only two days to go until Stella gets here!” When the day came, absolute pandemonium was in the air. We had an hour-long drive to get her and we were all pretty giddy. After all, we had been waiting on this day for weeks and now it was finally here. When we arrived at the breeders home, we found everything in tip top shape and very orderly. Both Stella’s mom and dad were on the property, so it was nice to see them and how they interacted with the kids. Then, we got to meet Stella and her siblings. She was part of a litter of 9, but we knew right away which one was her. You know, I really think she picked us that day just as inFORMational |5 Go Go - Slow Go - No Go The moment you retire and your monthly paycheck stops automatically depositing into your bank account, a new stress enters your life. The stress comes from the idea of living off the assets you have spent your life saving. The stress comes from the idea of turning the valve or flipping the switch that sends money from savings accounts to spending accounts. The stress comes from the fear of running out of money by spending too much. At the same time, this fear is in direct conflict with the desire to enjoy retirement and spend money on the dreams you worked toward all your life. Clients have shared this stress and we, in turn, have been working with our clients to address this stress for the past 18 years. Like everything we do to serve you, we start with helping plan your life and then manage your wealth around that plan. For retirement, our goal is help you reach your ‘Retirement Utopia.’ BY TYSON RAY, CFP® running out of funds by the end. Because we have already discussed and planned for this phase, the fear is mitigated. With the right planning, you really should spend more in the first 10 years. The “Slow Go” 10 Years of Utopia You generally slide into the “Slow Go” years and it is not necessarily because you are physically slowing down. A life well-lived often slows down because you run out of things you want to do. Beyond age 75 for most people, the desire to travel slows down because it is just more physically challenging. And we know from psychology that a need once met no longer satisfies. For example, if you want to take a vacation to Europe, the first visit is amazing; the second trip is good; and the third trip lets you know a fourth is unnecessary. Additionally for those of you who have grandchildren, as they get older, you may desire to be around them more and be present in the lives of your First let me remind you what we mean by the word Utopia. Utopia is defined as an imagined place or state in which everything is perfect. Luke and I have found that if we do our job well and if our clients listen to themselves and to our counsel, Utopia is a very real possibility. When you transition into retirement, it is important to realize your transformation generally has three very distinct phases. For this article let’s presume you retire at age 65 and each phase of retirement will last 10 years - a very believable scenario. The “Go Go” 10 Years of Utopia You have worked hard your whole life and you now want to have some fun. You may even be thinking, “Let’s have some fun while I still can.” Yet the desire to go play is in direct conflict with the desire to not run out of money. Luke and I fully realize you might spend more on travel in the first few years of retirement than in the rest of your retirement years combined. You want to see places, visit the grandchildren, or you may want to purchase the dream boat, motorcycle or automobile. You want to go and enjoy the freedom of retirement. We want to help you do so without the fear of 6 | inFORMational continued on next page » Go Go - Slow Go - No Go ...CONTINUED family and friends. There is something about being home that becomes more comforting. Often so does the desire to help your family, friends or charity, more so than spending on yourself. You may also experience more heath issues from time to time which just physically seem to slow you down. The “No Go” 10 Years of Utopia My wife said, “Watcha doin’ today?” I said, “Nothing!” She said, “You did that yesterday!” I said, “I wasn’t finished!” To those in the “Go Go” Years, and to a lesser extent those the “Slow Go” Years, there is a fear about hitting the “No Go” Years. Yet in my experience with clients, these last 10 years can be some of the best years of your life. Why? Because for clients who have lived well, these years become the time where you fondly remember your life and you share with friends, family and others the lessons from your past. These are the years where you truly shift from things you want for yourself to giving resources and doing things for others. These are the years when you are most charitably inclined and you may start to see the form your legacy is taking. You are slow to anger and often speak profound wisdom to those willing to ask. You don’t have to take my word for it, look what Jimmy Carter just did at age 90. with joy on the memories that they have experienced in their life. They often talk about family and friends that come to see them and about the experiences they have shared with others. They tend to be very generous, frequently thinking of giving to family and friends as well as charities. They’re a joy to be around as they just desire to share the wisdom they have learned in their years, and hope to instill that wisdom in anyone that would be willing to listen. The other paradigm I have found is one of frustration and regret, lamenting the things they wish they had done. The money they insisted on saving their whole life for future needs has kept them from being able to enjoy those things and now, in the end, they’re just left with a bunch of money. As one client put it early in my career, “Tyson, that’s just black ink on white paper to me now. I can’t do anything with it other than give it away.” Jimmy Carter, the 39th president of the United States and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, recently published a book titled: “A Full Life: Reflections at Ninety.” In this new memoir, he reflects on his life and the personal moments that changed him. He details the racism he witnessed growing up in Archery, Georgia. He describes how he tried to be more of an equal partner to his wife of 69 years, Rosalynn. But he also talks frankly about politics and the strengths and weaknesses of various U.S. presidents — and laments that positive relationships with some world leaders have deteriorated in recent years. Whether you voted for Jimmy in 1976 or not, he has tremendous perspective from the vantage point of his life experience. Our goal is to help our clients balance spending in the active “Go Go” years with the lessening needs of the “Slow Go” years, to end up in the “No Go” years without regrets. We want to have an ongoing conversation about your hopes and dreams, along with planning for the financing of those hopes and dreams. We will work with you, with the resources you have, and put a plan in place to fund In my 18 years in this profession, I find the “No Go” years those goals and help you accomplish as many as possible. are where people end up in one of two pretty distinct Then when we find you transitioning into your “No Go” paradigms. The first paradigm is that of contentment and years, we will find you happy, content, and enjoying a life gratitude for a life well lived. These folks are able to reflect well lived. inFORMational |7 FORM of Help If you have someone you care about who might benefit from our services, we invite you to let us know. We are here to help you and often that can come in the FORM of helping those you care about. We invite them to experience the skill and dedication of a team built on integrity, client service and a spectrum of services for individuals, families and institutions. • Investment Management & Monitoring* • Life Insurance & Long Term Care • Retirement Income Planning • Debt Management & Lending** • Estate Strategies • Business Succession Planning To learn more, contact FORM Wealth today at 262-686-3005 or visit us at formwealth.com. * Professional money management is not suitable for all investors. ** Offered through Raymond James Bank. Mission Statement FORM Wealth seeks to be a family’s sole financial advisor. Working with only a select number of clients, we consult by knowing your Family, Occupation, Recreation, and Mission. Then, we focus on risk management. Austin Ray - 10 Jackson Kuchenberg - 6 FORM Family Carson Ray - 7 Nelson Ray - 11 Lauren Kuchenberg - 4