(ISSD`12) May 31 - June 1, 2012 Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina

Transcription

i
3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Third International Symposium on
Sustainable Development
(ISSD’12)
May 31 - June 1, 2012
Sarajevo
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Proceedings
Volume 2
INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND
SUSTAINABILITY
Sarajevo - 2012
ii
INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND SUSTAINABILITY
3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development (ISSD2012)
May 31 – June 01 Sarajevo, Bosnia & Herzegovina
Publisher:
International Burch University
Editors;
Prof.Dr. Meliha HANDZIC
Assoc.Prof.Dr. Abdulhamit SUBAŞI
Assoc.Prof.Dr. Ali GÖKSU
Conference Partners:
International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Texas A&M University-Commerce, USA
Bulent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Turkey
Suleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey
DTP & Design:
Erna Ahmetspahić
DTP and Prepress:
Printed by: International Burch University
Circulation: 500 copies
Place of Publication: Sarajevo
Copyright: International Burch University, 2012
International Burch University Publication No: 17
ISBN 978-9958-834-16-5
Reproduction of this Publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior permission from the copyright holder. Reproduction for
resale or other commercial purposes prohibited without prior written permission of the copyright holder.
Disclaimer: While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, contained in this publication, International Burch University will not assume
liability for writing and any use made of the proceedings, and the presentation of the participating organizations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or
area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
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ORGANIZERS OF ISSD'12
Conference Partners:
Texas A&M University-Commerce, USA
Bulent Ecevit
University, Zonguldak, Turkey
Suleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey
Local Organising Committee:
Meliha Handzic, Chair
Teoman Duman, International Liaison
Abdulhamit Subasi, Program Sessions Coordinator
Ali Göksu, Program Sessions Coordinator
Emina Alickovic, Review Coordinator
Natasa Tandir, Review Coordinator
Zeynep Kara, Secretary
Nadira Sarajlic, Public Relations Officer
Kasim Erturk, Treasurer
Ibrahim Kinal, Webmaster
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International Scientific Committee
Akyildiz Huseyin
Altin Ahmet
Ay Gurkan
Aydemir Muzaffer
Bagdigen Muhlis
Bayraktaroglu Serkan
Cinar Ozer
Coskun Ali
Develioglu Kazim
Digrak Metin
Dogan Hulusi
Donko Dzenana
Duman Mehmet
Duman Teoman
Duran Burhanettin
Durna Ufuk
Ekiz Huseyin
Emektar Riza
Ercisli Sezai
Eroglu Abdullah
Eruslu Niyazi M.
Esiyok Dursun
Goksu Ali
Gungor Ibrahim
Handzic Meliha
Inal Emin
Ibicioglu Hasan
Kalabusic Senada
Kalayci Seref
Kantarci Kemali
Karcioglu Resat
Karlik Bekir
Kosecik Muhammet
Kudabaev Zarylbek I.
Musemic Rajfa
Oguz Cennet
Ozsoy Ismail
Padem Huseyin
Pinnington Ashley H.
Rose Andrew K.
Sari Ramazan
Schwartz Harvey
Sitembolukbasi Saban
Slotsve George
Subasi Abdulhamit
Toksen Erol
Tourk Khairy A.
Uyar Suleyman
Vergil Hasan
Witkowski Jaroslaw
Suleyman Demirel University
Bulent Ecevit University
George Washington University
Bilecik University
Sakarya University
Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University
Fatih University
Akdeniz University
Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University
Akdeniz University
Sarajevo University
Artvin Coruh University
Istanbul Sehir University
Akdeniz University
Sakarya University
Robert Morris University
Atatürk University
Yalova University
Ege University
Akdeniz University
Akdeniz University
University of Sarajevo
Akdeniz University
Ataturk University
Konya-Mevlana University
Turgut Ozal University
American University of Central Asia
University of Sarajevo
Selcuk University
Fatih University
The British University in Dubai
University of California
Middle East Technical University
York University
Northern Illinois University
Ege University
Illinois Institute of Technology
Akdeniz University
University of Economics
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Turkey
Turkey
USA
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
USA
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Turkey
Kirgiz Republic
Turkey
Turkey
UAE
USA
Turkey
Canada
Turkey
USA
Turkey
USA
Turkey
Turkey
Poland
Preface
These proceedings contain the papers presented at the Third International Symposium on Sustainable
Development (ISSD 2012). The conference was organised by the International Burch University-Sarajevo
in partnership with Texas A&M University-Commerce, Suleyman Demirel University-Isparta, Akdeniz
University-Anatalya and Bulent Ecevit-Zondulak. It was held in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, from
May 30 to June 01, 2012.
The aim of the symposium was to bring together a diverse community of researchers and practitioners
interested in exploring a wide spectrum of questions that relate to sustainability. It served as a forum for
regional and international community to meet, generate and share ideas in the field of theoretical,
experimental and applied research.
The focus of ISSD 2012 was on “management and technology: issues and challenges”.
The conference solicited papers addressing economic, social and environmental aspects of sustainable
development. The original research papers submitted to the conference covered a wide variety of topics
from six tracks. These tracks included: management and organisations for sustainable development,
information systems and sustainability, green technologies and strategies, sustainability finance and
accounting, economics of sustainable development and marketing perspective on sustainability.
These proceedings contain only research papers that were selected as a result of a review process
involving at least two reviewers appointed by the organising committee. In addition to contributed papers,
the conference program also included poster sessions and two keynote presentations from the international
distinguished researchers:
”Green IS: An Opportunity and Responsibility for Information Systems to Make a Difference”, presented
by Associate Professor Helen Hasan, University of Wollongong, Australia
“Management and Sustainability”, presented by Professor Hal Langford, Texas A&M UniversityCommerce, USA
As editors, we would like to thank everyone who contributed to the content and production of these
proceedings, namely, the authors, members of the scientific committee, reviewers and the organisers of
the conference who made this conference possible.
Meliha Handzic, Abdulhamit Subasi and Ali Goksu
Editors
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Table of Contents
Preface ............................................................................................................................................................................v
Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................... ..........................vii
Full Papers
TRACK 2
OFFLINE SIGNATURE RECOGNITION USING MACHINE LEARNING
Mohammad Ikhsan Bin Zakaria, Gunay Karli .............................................................................................................. 1
A CASE STUDY OF PROBIT MODEL ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING CONSUMPTION OF PACKED
AND UNPACKED MILK IN TURKEY
Meral Uzunoz, Yasar Akcay ......................................................................................................................................... 9
INTEGRATION AND SUSTAINABILITY OF TECHNOLOGY-ENHANCED SYSTEMS INTO LEARNING
ENVIRONMENT: CANKIRI KARATEKIN UNIVERSITY CASE STUDY
Murat Ari, Abdullah Pekel .......................................................................................................................................... 16
H2O PERSISTENCE FRAMEWORK FOR COLUMN ORIENTED DISTRIBUTED (NOSQL) DATABASES
Dino Kečo, Dženana Đonko ....................................................................................................................................... 22
THE INVESTIGATION OF OPTIMUM WELDING PARAMETERS IN CONNECTING HIGH ALLOYED
X53CRMNNIN219 AND X45CRSI93 STEELS BY FRICTION WELDING
Mehmet Uzkut, Bekir Sadık Ünlü, Selim Sarper Yilmaz, Mustafa Akdağ .................................................................. 29
POSITIVE ATTITUDES OF UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS TOWARD ONLINE SHOPPING
Ali Acılar .................................................................................................................................................................... 40
A STUDY ABOUT MOBBING ON STUDENTS, THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THEIR PERSONALITY
TRAITS AND MENTAL STATUS
Zeki Akinci, Osman Nuri Demirel, Yusuf Yilmaz....................................................................................................... 46
TECHNOLOGIES AIMING TO IMPROVE WORK EFFICIENCY AND SUSTAINABILITY: PERSONNEL
TRACKING SYSTEMS
Halil Kaygisiz, Abdülkadir Çakir, Eyüp Çaki, Seyit Akpancar .................................................................................. 60
ix
SOCIAL ANXIETY AND USAGE OF ONLINE TECHNOLOGICAL COMMUNICATION TOOLS AMONG
ADOLESCENTS
Bilal Sisman, Sinan Yoruk, Ali Eleren ........................................................................................................................ 67
THE EFFECTS OF MENTORSHIP ON THE SUCCESS OF FIRMS
Şevket Yirik, Yusuf Yilmaz, Osman Nuri Demirel, Yıldırım Yilmaz ........................................................................ 75
ANALYSIS OF THE HOTEL PERSONNEL’S CONCEPTIONS OF ORGANIZATIONAL JUSTICE,
ORGANIZATIONAL SILENCE, MOBBING, ORGANIZATIONAL COMMITMENT IN TERMS OF
DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES
Şevket Yirik, Yusuf Yilmaz, Osman Nuri Demirel, Yıldırım Yilmaz, Abdullah Akgün, Hasan Kinay ..................... 82
THE IMPACTS OF USING ADDITIONAL TEACHING MATERIALS ON STUDENTS’ PERFORMANCE IN
PACKAGE PROGRAM EDUCATION: THE CASE OF FIDELIO AND SEJOUR
Hasan Kinay, Abdullah Akgün, Hakan Çetin, Yusuf Yilmaz, Zeki Akinci ................................................................. 95
LEGACY OF TURGUT ÖZAL AND THE SUSTAİNABLE TRANSFORMATİON OF TURKEY WITH AK
PARTY GOVERNMENTS
Selami Erdoğan , Eray Acar ...................................................................................................................................... 102
AN EVALUATION OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES’ ROLES IN REGARD TO SOCIAL
SUSTAINABILITY: A DISSCUSSION OF TURKISH DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES’ EXPERIENCE
Mustafa Ökmen, Buğra Özer, Vedat Bal ................................................................................................................ ..111
COMPARISON STUDY OF APPROACHES TO MEASURING POVERTY IMPLEMENTING FUZZY SET AND
CLASSIC SET USING THE HOUSEHOLD DATA OF TURKEY
Alparslan Abdurrahman Basaran, Murat Alper Basaran .......................................................................................... ..117
THE IMPORTANCE OF ERP (ENTERPRISE RESOURCE PLANNING) SOFTWARE AND CHOOSING
CRITERIAS FOR BUSINESS
Hakan Çetin, Hakan Akar .......................................................................................................................................... 123
DOES PREDEFINED ERP IMPLEMENTATION METHODOLOGY WORK FOR PUBLIC COMPANIES IN
TRANSITIONING COUNTRY?
Adnan Kraljić, Denis Delismajlović, Tarik Kraljić ................................................................................................... 130
x
A CROSS – SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMETAL SUSTAINABILITY PRACTICES
Uçan Okyay .............................................................................................................................................................. 140
UTILISING INFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR MEASURING IMPACT ON SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY:
SURVEY OF MICROCREDIT ORGANISATIONS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Alica Pandzo, Kemal Taljanovic, Selma Jahic ........................................................................................................... 154
WEB TECHNOLOGIES IN EDUCATION
Günay Karli, Miljković Adnan ................................................................................................................................. 168
THE EFFECTS OF AKHISM PRINCIPLES ON TODAY'S BUSINESS LIFE: A CASE IN THE WESTERN
MEDITERRANEAN REGION
Hilmi Uyar, Hasan Erdoğan ...................................................................................................................................... 176
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE LIFE SATISFACTION OF HOUSEHOLD HEADS LIVING IN
URBAN AREAS: A CASE OF WEST MEDITERRANEAN REGION
Ali Riza Aktas, Burhan Ozkan, Onur Oku ................................................................................................................ 189
ICT INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SUSTAİNABLE SOCİETY: A STORY OF BH TELECOM
Dzihad Zlatar, Meliha Handzic ................................................................................................................................. 198
SUSTAINABILITY & EDUCATION - E-LEARNING WEBSITE
Aida Bulbul, Mela Hadrović, Emil Knezović, Adi Fišević ....................................................................................... 207
E-GOVERNMENT IN A BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA MUNICIPALITY
Kursad Ozlen, Edin Smajic, Serife Ozlen ................................................................................................................. 215
AN ASSESSMENT ON EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT
Emriye Ulu, S. Umit Kiymalioğlu ............................................................................................................................ 226
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYSTEMS IN BIH
Kursad Ozlen, Belma Peskic, Aida Dedovic ............................................................................................................. 236
KM APPLICATIONS in BOSNIAN MANAGERIAL PRACTICES
Kursad Ozlen, Zehra Mahmutović, Ensar Mekić, Emina Herić ……………………..……………………………..246
xi
E - COMMERCE IN BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA
Serife Ozlen, Merdzana Obralic, Emir Cickusic, Dzenis Ejupi, Emir Dzaferovic .................................................... 259
THE IPARD PROGRAMME IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN UNION RURAL DEVELOPMENT FUNDS
Dilek Memişoğlu, Ayşe Durgun, Sibel Yegül .......................................................................................................... 275
ORGANIZATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES (OPEC) AND ROLE OF SAUDI ARABIA
Nađa Dreca ................................................................................................................................................................ 289
COOPERATION AND COMPETITION IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY BUSINESS: CASE OF ICT FIRMS
IN KONYA
M. Atilla Aricioğlu, Deniz Göktaş, Birol Mercan ...................................................................................................... 296
COMPARISON OF LINEAR REGRESSION AND NEURAL NETWORK MODELS FORECASTING TOURIST
ARRIVALS TO TURKEY
Selcuk Cankurt, Abdulhamit Subasi .......................................................................................................................... 304
INFORMATISATION OF THE JUDICIARY IN BIH: SUCCESS FACTORS
Nedim Fisekovic, Meliha Handzic ............................................................................................................................ 311
ADVANCED TECHNIQUES AND APPLICATION OF LEARNING CONTENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS IN
ENTERPRISES
Šemsudin Plojović, Enis Ujkanović, Suad Bećirović, Muzafer Saračević ................................................................. 319
A HYBRID DIGITAL VIDEO WATERMARKING METHOD BASED ON DCT AND DWT
Haldun Sarnel, Kadir Ünal ........................................................................................................................................ 327
INVESTIGATION OF SEISMIC PERFORMANCE OF EXISTING BUILDING STRENGTHENED WITH CFRP
Ali Demir, Hakan Başaran, Duygu Dönmez Demir .................................................................................................. 335
MEDICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR DIAGNOSIS OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES USING
DWT AND K-NN
Emina Alickovic, Abdulhamit Subasi ....................................................................................................................... 345
CLASSIFICATION OF EMG SIGNALS USING DECISION TREE METHODS
Selami Keleş, Abdulhamit Subasi ………………………..………………………………………………..……...353
xii
STOCK MARKET PRICE INDEX RETURN FORECASTING USING ANN
Gunter Senyurt, Abdulhamit Subasi .......................................................................................................................... 366
STOCK MARKET MOVEMENT DIRECTION PREDICTION USING TREE ALGORITHMS
Gunter Senyurt, Abdulhamit Subasi .......................................................................................................................... 373
GIS INTEGRATION AND EVOLUTION INTO THE ALBANIAN SYSTEM EDUCATION AND MARKET
M. Hysenaj , R. Barjami ............................................................................................................................................ 379
COMMERCIAL WEBSITES EVALUATION
Zeid Hazem, Meliha Handzic ................................................................................................................................... 389
A SUGGESTION FOR FORESTRY: ASSIGNING IDLE PUBLIC LANDS TO PRIVATE SECTOR BY
PROJECTING AND PROVISIONING
Mustafa Durman, Murat Fatih Köymen ..................................................................................................................... 397
AN EMPIRICAL ON KNOWLEDGE SHARING IN LEARNING ORGANIZATIONS IN KUTAHYA, TURKEY
Kemal Demirci, Nuray Mercan, Yaşar Aksanyar, Vasfi Kahya, Bayram Alamur .................................................... 403
CIVIL LAW NOTARIES IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: ACTORS IN PREVENTIVE JUSTICE
Šukrija Bakšić, Esad Oruč ......................................................................................................................................... 412
AN APPLICATION ON DETERMINING OF OPTIMUM LOCAL TRANSPORTING SYSTEM AT ADAPAZARI
CITY
Kamil Taskin , Fatih Gumus , Ali Akaytay ............................................................................................................... 420
STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING APPLICATIONS OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
Hakan Başaran, Muhiddin Bağcı .............................................................................................................................. 431
NEURAL-NETWORK APPLICATIONS FOR ANALYSIS OF INFILLED FRAME
Muhiddin Bağcı, Hakan Başaran ............................................................................................................................... 444
A CROSS – SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMETAL SUSTAINABILITY PRACTICES
Murat Toksari , Okyay Uçan ..................................................................................................................................... 453
xiii
TRAFFIC ACCIDENT DETECTION BY USING MACHINE LEARNING METHODS
Nejdet Dogru, Abdulhamit Subasi ............................................................................................................................ 467
SUSTAINABILITY AND USING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES IN DISASTER MANAGAMENT
Fatma Neval Genç, Murat Yılmaz ............................................................................................................................ 473
CLASSIFICATION OF EEG SIGNALS FOR EPILEPTIC SEIZURE PREDICTION USING ANN
Jasmin Kevric, Abdulhamit Subasi ........................................................................................................................... 490
CLASSIFICATION OF FETAL STATE FROM THE CARDIOTOCOGRAM RECORDINGS USING ANN AND
SIMPLE LOGISTIC
Hakan Sahin, Abdulhamit Subasi .............................................................................................................................. 498
AN OVERVIEW OF METAL OXIDE SEMICONDUCTING SENSORS IN ELECTRONIC NOSE
APPLICATIONS
Özgür Örnek1, Bekir Karlık ...................................................................................................................................... 505
COMPARISON OF MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS IN RECOGNATION OF REGULATORY REGION
OF DNA
Günay Karlı, Şenol Doğan ........................................................................................................................................ 515
THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (IISD) WEBSITE IN THE
CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Emir Cickusic, Teo Domuz, Anisa Topalovic, Emir Becirovic ................................................................................ 533
THE IMPORTANCE OF TRAINING AIMED AT BUSINESSES: EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITIES EXECUTED
BY THE TURKISH PRIVATE SECTOR
Gokhan Ofluoglu , Sibel Buzkan, Sadık Kilic .......................................................................................................... 546
A NEW APPROACH TO MEASURING POVERTY IMPLEMENTING FUZZY SET USING THE HOUSEHOLD
DATA OF TURKEY
Murat Alper Basaran , Alparslan Abdurrahman Basaran ........................................................................................... 563
THE EFFECT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES ON PRIVATE SCHOOL WORKERS’ WORK STRESSES
Hakan Çetin, Taş Sebahattin ................................................................................................................................... 569
xiv
OBSTACLES IN COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION WEBSITES’ DEVELOPMENT: A CASE
FROM BOSNA AND HERZEGOVINA
Merima Bejtagic-Makic , Suncica Hadzidedic .......................................................................................................... 587
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT FIELD MAPPING: A CASE OF ISSD2012
Zeynep Kara, Meliha Handzic, Nermina Durmic ..................................................................................................... 594
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAREER PLANNING AND CULTURE: A RESEARCH ON FRENCH AND
TURKISH BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION STUDENTS
Kürşat Özdaşli, Pelin Kanten, Seher Derya, Merve Eroğlu, Fatih Cura .................................................................... 600
THE FACTORS DETERMINED TO THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE LEAST DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES: TESTING A MODEL
Gözde Ergin, Adil Oğuzhan ....................................................................................................................................... 609
xv
Offline Signature Recognition Using Machine Learning
Mohammad Ikhsan Bin Zakaria, GunayKarli
Engineering and Information Technologies, International Burch University,
Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
E-mails: [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
Biometric behavior can be recognized through the signature behavior of a person. It is mostly
used for authorization and authentication in legal documentation papers. Signature
recognition has two ways of verification, dynamic or online recognition and static or offline
recognition. In this paper we use offline recognition to analyze signature images using
Artificial Neural Network. We used mark minutia masking as the feature extraction. We
proposed offline signature recognition using machine learning with supervised learning
algorithm. The aim of using artificial neural network is to automatically find signatures that
match to the owners of the signatures. Based on our evaluation, after we compared feed
forward backpropagation and other supervised learning network such cascade-forward
network, it revealed cascade-forward shown the highest accuracy100 % with low mean
square error 0.
Keywords: biometric, offline signature, machine learning
1.INTRODUCTION
Offline signature recognition is the technique to prevent forgery against security issue on
legal documentation papers. In many legal companies they use this system to protect their
customers. The process of gathering signature image is done by taking signatures from
volunteers to sign on papers for ten times and we take that signatures scan to the computer
and format as 200 dpi into gray scale image format. Reducing noisy and mark minutia arethe
difficult tasks here, because besides we have to keep the information of signature images as
valid as we can. There are few methods that applied offline signature recognition such as
signature region of interest using auto cropping [1]. The signature images will be cleaned up
from unwanted space or image around signatures. In this method the authors proposed image
auto cropping as it is mentioned on image normalization. In [2] they proposed offline
signature recognition and verification scheme which is based on extraction of several features
including one hybrid set from the input signature and compare them with the already forms.
In feature extraction [2] they used Euclidean distances from vertical and horizontal sectioning
of signature. In [3] they proposed offline handwritten signature recognition which is trained
in low-resolution scanned signature images using learning vector quantization classifier. The
accuracy rate [3] was 98% for random test set of 150 handwritten signature images of 10
1
persons. Offline signature recognition and verification [4] based on four speed stroke was
proposed. In [4] they used stroke angle and stroke speed as feature extraction.
This paper is organized into five sessions. The following is an introduction of the topic in this
session 1, session 2 describes the proposed method, in session 3 describe signature image
preprocessing and feature extraction, in session 4 describes implementation, results. In final
session describes conclusion.
2.SIGNATURE IMAGE PREPROCESSING
In this paper signature image preprocessing can be done in six steps as follows: (1)
Histogram Equalization (2) Fourier Transform (3) Binarization (4) Signature Direction (5)
Region of Interest (ROI) Area and (6) Thinning. Thinning image process is one most
particular step in this stage, because thinning produces single layer line of signature. Minutia
marking stage needs thinning before applying bifurcation skim step. Signature image
preprocessing is influenced by the original which was taken using colors pen. Thinning
process produces skeleton of signature which has single-pixel image.
2.1. Minutia Marking Feature Extraction
During image preprocessing, we include minutia marking as our feature extraction; here the
mask digit skimmed all possible digits with 1s and 0s value. We carried out minutia marking
to state image bifurcation and decision or termination. In general we have 3x3 matrices, if the
central pixel is one and have exactly three one-value neighbors; the central pixel is a ridge
branch. If the central pixel is one and has only one-value neighbor, then the central pixel is a
ridge ending [5].Using minutia detection on the binary skeleton would be performed by
labeling as minutiae pixels which is cross number (CN). Some methods consider the pixels
which CN >= 3 correspond to bifurcation as shown in figure 1 (a) or if CN = 2 it correspond
to ridge ending[5], [6].
(a)
(b)
(c)
Figure 1: (a) Bifurcation (b) Termination (c) Triple counting branch
Figure 1 (c) describes the special case which a genuine branch is triple counted. If both
uppermost pixel with value 1 and the rightmost in same 3x3 block has pixel 1, so the two
pixels are marked as the braches [6]. All three figures 1 (a), 1 (b) and 1 (c) are filtered using
bifurcation template. Ridge thinning signature images are filtered using this bifurcation
masking. In [5] discussed about mark minutia extraction. The bifurcation template is used to
cover all possible high bit 1s and eliminate 0s bit after thinning process. Basically CN for
pixel P in bifurcation template is in [5] and shown in figure 2 CN is estimated using equation
(1).
2
Figure 2: Basic format CN for P
(1)
Where Pi is the bi-level pixel value in the neighborhood of P with Pi = 0s or 1s and P1 = P9.
3. IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS
In implementation we used Artificial Neural Network supervised learning to classify
signature images that are given in training and we tested to find the match of signatures and
the owners. We evaluated the result in testing session. The experimental platform is the Intel
dual core T3400 2.10GHz, 4 GB RAM, Windows 7 and the software is MATLAB 7.0.0.199
(R.14). On the first part of training and testing, we experimented feed-forward
backpropagation and then followed by other supervised learning network such as Cascadeforward network, Elman Recurrent network and Learning vector quantization.
3.1. Proposed Method
The offline signature recognition using machine learning or Artificial Neural Network as
proposed method in this study is illustrated in figure 3.
Figure 3: Block diagram of proposed method
The first step in the proposed method deals with collecting of signatures and scanned them,
the second step describes signature image preprocessing in session 2. The third step describes
feature extraction, in this step we used minutia marking. The final step describes the
signatures classification processing using feed-forward backpropagation, cascade-forward
network, Elman recurrent network and learning vector network. One of the sample testing
results for each classification neurons are plotted in figure 4. Original or genuine signatures
3
were collected from 30 students at International Burch University; each student gave 10
signatures samples. After converting 300 signatures into gray scale format, we divided them
into 300 single signature images. The file was analyzed for neuron classification session. The
following session describes ANN classification and testing results.
3.2. Feed-forward Backpropagation Network (newff)
In this experiment we used feed-forward backpropagation network to calculate mean square
error as the measurement for performance on the neural networks. We also consider the
influence of training algorithm and transfer function which can change the approximation of
recognized signatures. In figure 4 (a) shows the example of testing results. In that testing
session we obtained combination of attributes such as number of inputs, hidden layers,
training algorithm and transfer function. It was the highest accuracy 66.6667 % and the
lowest mse 0.4286. Table 1 shows the attributes training algorithm and transfer function
influenced the final result of testing. The biggernumber of hidden layers with different
combination of transfer functions, the bigger time it took the machine to analyze. Moreover,
number of hidden layer and combination of transfer functions tansig or logsig did not make
big changes or differences for accuracy rate. The lower result of mean square error, the
higher the rate of accuracy we got. However the results of neural network testing were not
precisely matched but we rounded into the nearest integers. After integers are rounded and
there were compared with the predicted integers or classes.
Table 1 Testing on Feed-forward Backpropagation Networks
4
Input
Architecture of
NN
Training
Algorithm
Transfer Function
MSE
Accuracy
10
10-1
traingdm
logsig, purelin
0.714
3
61.9048
%
10
10-1
traingdm
tansig, purelin
0.571
4
57.1429
%
10
10-1
traingdx
tansig, purelin
0.571
4
57.1429
%
10
10-10-1
traingdm
tansig, logsig, purelin
0.476
2
66.6667
%
10
10-10-1
traingdx
0.476
2
66.6667
%
20
20-10-10-1
traingdm
tansig, logsig, logsig,
purelin
0.619
0
52.3810
%
20
20-10-10-1
traingdx
purelin
0.714
3
66.6667
%
20
20-10-10-1
traingdm
logsig, tansig, tansig,
purelin
0.619
0
52.3810
%
20
20-10-10-1
traingdx
purelin
0.428
6
66.6667
%
The performance of training is influenced by number of hidden layers, training algorithm,
learning methods. Generally,mseis calculated in MATLAB using logic below. In equation
(2) it is just additional description of calculating mse using MATLAB. In equation (3), we
used the logic to compare between target output and actual output. We calculate the integers
in target output that are larger or equal to actual output and converted them into 1s.
(2)
;
;
(3)
3.3. Cascade-forward Network (newcf)
Table 2 shows training and testing using cascade-forward networks, we calculated the mseto
find the significant error during our testing.
Table 2 Testing Cascade-forward Networks
Input
Architecture
of NN
Training
Algorith
m
Transfer Function
MSE
Accuracy
10
10-1
trainlm
logsig, purelin
0.4286
71.4286 %
10
10-1
trainlm
tansig, purelin
0.4762
66.6667 %
10
10-1
trainbfg
tansig, purelin
0.4286
57.1429 %
10
10-10-1
trainlm
0.3810
76.1905 %
10
10-10-1
trainbfg
0.5238
61.9048 %
20
20-10-10-1
trainlm
tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin
0.0952
90.4762 %
5
20
20-10-10-1
trainbfg
tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin
0.5238
61.9048 %
20
20-10-10-1
trainbfg
logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin
0.4762
52.3810 %
20
20-10-10-1
trainlm
logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin
0
100 %
Our attributes in table 2 are training algorithm trainlm and trainbfg, where during testing
session trainbfg spent more time than trainlm to find output. In final testing we obtained 20
inputs with two hidden layers and tansig as transfer function, we got 100 % matched in
accuracy rate and 0 in mse error. Thus we concluded that the lowest mse in this network
produced the highest accuracy we got. However, mse does not always affect the changes of
accuracy rate or neural network output. It is because the output of neurons is not always
precise. As a sample of training and testing, figure 4 (b) shows testing result. Figure 4 (b)
shows the testing result with mse 0.4286 and accuracy rate was 71.4286 %.
3.4. Elman Recurrent Network (newelm)
The basic structure table in Elman networks is the same as previous networks in feed-forward
backpropagation and cascade-forward networks as shows in table 3.
Table 3 Testing on Elman Recurrent Network
6
Input
Architecture
of NN
Training
Algorithm
Transfer Function
MSE
Accuracy
10
10-1
trainlm
logsig, purelin
0.4286
57.1429
%
10
10-1
trainlm
tansig, purelin
0.1429
85.7143
%
10
10-1
trainbfg
tansig, purelin
0.6190
66.6667
%
10
10-10-1
trainlm
0.8095
71.4286
%
10
10-10-1
trainbfg
0.4286
71.4286
%
20
20-10-10-1
trainlm
purelin
0.7143
57.1429
%
20
20-10-10-1
trainbfg
purelin
0.7143
42.8571
%
20
20-10-10-1
trainlm
purelin
0.0476
95.2381
%
20
20-10-10-1
trainbfg
purelin
0.4762
95.2381
%
In this experiment the lowest mse is 0.0476 and the highest accuracy is 95.2381 %. From
table 3 shows that there are two highest accuracy rates but with difference mse, thus the best
output is the one that has lower mse error, even though it has same accuracy and uses same
inputs, hidden layer but different training algorithms. Trainlm shows the lowest mse result.
As a sample of testing session in this network, figure 4 (c) shows 71.4286 % accuracy and
0.8095 mse.
3.5. Learning Vector Quantization (newlvq)
In learning vector quantization, the hidden layer value has to be positive integers so it became
limited for us to analyze. Relating to the classes, we provided 21 classes of signatures. We
trained 105 signatures and we tested using 21 signatures. In excel file we put addition column
as the name of each classes such as class 1 has five 1s, class 2 has five 2s and so on. So here
we provided different kind of table which consists only training algorithm, mse and
efficiency.
Table 4 Training and testing newlvq
No. Hidden
Neurons
Class
Percentages
Training Algorithm
MSE
Accuracy
10
.6 .4
learnlv2
0.4286
71.4286 %
20
.6 .4
learnlv2
0.4286
71.4286 %
10
.6 .4
learnlv1
0.4286
71.4286 %
20
.6 .4
learnlv1
0.4286
71.4286 %
10
.8 .2
learnlv2
0.4286
71.4286 %
10
.8 .2
learnlv1
0.4286
71.4286 %
Table 4 (d) illustrates combination of learning algorithm, typical of classes and number of
hidden neurons. The results show us, there are no significant changes during testing either
7
using learnlvq1 or learnlvq2 and hidden neurons. Even though, we combined all possible
values. Thus learning vector quantization gave the highest accuracy 71.4286 % with 0.4286
mse.
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Figure 4: (a) Feed-forward backpropagation, (b) Cascade-forward, (c) Elman Recurrent (d)
Learning Vector Quantization
4. CONCLUSION
Based on experiments in previous chapter, we can conclude few points which related to the
results. The highest accuracy in feed-forward backpropagation testing result was 66.6667 %
and the lowest mse in that network was 0.4286. In cascade-forward network testing, the
highest accuracy rate was 100 % and the lowest mse in that testing was 0. Moreover, when
we tested Elman, the highest accuracy in that testing network was 95.2381 % and mse was
0.0476.On the other hand, learning vector quantization network has some differences in
attributes. For instance, we used learnlv1 or learnlv2 as learning algorithm and compet as
training algorithm, so we don’t compare this network with other three network algorithms in
previous evaluation. The highest accuracy in learning vector quantization was 71.4286 %
with 0.4286 mse. Thus cascade forward network was the best fit in this method, because the
network produced 0 errors and 100 % accuracy with 20 inputs.
REFERENCES
Souvola, J. &Pietikainen, M. (2000), Adoptive document image binarization, The Journal of
The Pattern Recognition Society, page 225-236.
Bhuyan, M., Sarma, K. K., & Das, H. (2010). Signature Recognition and Verification using
Hybrid Features and Clustered Artificial Neural Network (ANN). International Journal of
Electrical and Computer Engineering.
8
Khuwaja, G. A. &Laghari, M. S. (2011). Offline Handwritten Signature Recognition. World
Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology 59.
Basavaraj, L. &Sudhaker Samuel, R.D. (2009). Offline-line Signature Verification and
Recognition: An Approach Based on Four Speed Stroke Angle. International Journal of
Recent Trends in Engineering, Vol 2.
Zhao, F., & Tang, X. (2006). Preprocessing and postprocessing for skeleton-based fingerprint
minutiae extraction, Pattern Recognition 40 (2007) 1270 – 1281, The Journal of Pattern
Recognition Society.
Zhili, W. (2002). Fingerprint Recognition. Unpublished Bachelor’s Thesis, Hong Kong
Baptist University.
A Case Study of Probit Model Analysis of Factors Affecting Consumption
of Packed and Unpacked Milk in Turkey
Meral Uzunoz1, Yasar Akcay2
1Gaziosmanpasa University Faculty of Agriculture Department of Agricultural Economics,
Turkey
2Gaziosmanpasa University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences Department of
Economics, Turkey
E-mails: [email protected],[email protected]
Abstract
This paper focused on the effects of some socio-demographic factors on the decision of the
consumer to purchase packed or unpacked milk in Sivas, Turkey. The data were collected
from 300 consumers by using face to face survey technique. Binary probit model has been
used to analyze the socio-economic factors affecting milk consumption of households.
According to empirical results, consumers with higher education and income levels tend to
consume packed milk consumption. Also, milk price was affective factor packed and
unpacked milk consumption behavior. The majority of consumers reads the contents of
packed milk and is affected by safety food in their shopping preferences.
Keywords: Milk consumption, Consumer preferences, Binary probit model
9
1.INTRODUCTION
Milk is a unique food item that needs to be available in the market without any shortage since
it plays a key role in infant feeding and alleviating nutritional poverty in all other age groups.
It has been perceived by consumers as an important source of nutrients, especially calcium
for good bone and teeth health (Alwis et al. 2009). Therefore, it is advisable to consume an
adequate amount of milk and milk products for healthy lifestyle (Hatirli et al. 2004).
Increasing population and income, together with the growing popularity of dairy products,
particularly among developing country consumers is a key factor behind strong demand in
the medium term. Demand continues to be encouraged by the growing influence of retail
chains and multinational companies in these countries, which is facilitating improved
consumer access to dairy products. The demand for milk and dairy products is expected to
remain particularly strong in important developing dairy markets such as North Africa, the
Middle East and East Asia, but also in more mature markets such as those in the European
Union, the United States and Russia. The rate of growth and per capita consumption of milk
and milk products remains significantly different among regions. LDC (Least Developed
Countries) consume less than 50 kg per person per year on average, compared with 100 kg
per person for developing countries, while the developed regions of North America and
Europe consume well in excess of 200 kg per person (in milk equivalent). Such a per capita
consumption disparity represents an investment potential and future opportunities for both the
domestic and global dairy sectors (OECD/FAO 2011).
However, per capita milk consumption in Turkey is low by any comparison due to Turkish
people’s consumption patterns, income levels and nutritional habits. Turkey is far behind the
European countries and the world in milk consumption (Pazarlioglu et al. 2007). In Turkey,
annual per capita milk consumption is 26 lt (WMDA 2011). Per capita milk consumption are
66,9 lt in EU, 90.0 lt in USA, 91.5 lt in Canada, 108.14 lt in Austria, 78.2 lt in New Zeland,
87.2 lt in Russia, 97.0 kg in Sweden, 80.1 lt in Ukrain (AEPDI 2011).
Milk is consumed as unpacked fluid milk and packed fluid milk in Turkey. Unpacked fluid
milk, also called street milk in Turkey, refers to milk that is produced at farms without any
control and packed fluid milk refers to milk produced under fluid milk technology such as
pastorization or UHT. Respective shares of milk processing plants in total milk consumption
of Turkey are 27% modern dairy factories, 33% for medium sized establishments and dairies,
20% for uncontrolled producers, 20% for producers’ self consumption (Pazarlioglu et al.
2007).
The main goal of this study was to determine the effects of some socio-demographic factors
on the decision of the consumer to purchase packed or unpacked milk.
2. DATA AND METHODS
2.1. Data
The data was obtained by direct interviewing the individual households of 300 residences
who live in Sivas province. The survey was conducted in June 2009. The sample size was
determined using the Possibility-Sampling Method (Yamane 2001).
10
n
( Nt 2 . p.q)
(d 2 N  t 2 . p.q)
where N is the number of households in Sivas province (63153) (TURKSTAT 2009), t is z
number is the required confidence interval (for 95 percent confidence interval t = 1.96), p is
possibility for an event to occur (the rate of consuming packed milk, 0.5), q is the possibility
for an event not to occurring (the rate of not consuming packed milk, 0.5), d is acceptable
error rate during sampling (0.0564).
2.2. Methods
The probit model is a statistical probability model with two categories in the dependent
variable (Liao, 1994). Probit analysis is based on the cumulative normal probability
distribution. The binary dependent variable, y, takes on the values of zero and one (Aldrich
and Nelson 1984). Binary probit model was employed to the survey data to see the effects of
socio-economic and demographic variables on the consumer purchase decision of packed and
unpacked milk.
In the binary probit model, packed milk preference (PACKMILKPREF) was taken as 1,
while unpacked milk as 0. It is assumed that the ith household obtains maximum utility it has
packed milk preference rather than unpacked one.
The probability pi of choosing any alternative over not choosing it can be expressed as in
equation (1), where ɸ
variable (Greene 2011).
Y
i
pi= prob

 t2
 1 X    xi (2 ) 1 / 2 exp  
 2

dt  ( xi   )

(1)
The relationship between a specific variable and the outcome of the probability is interpreted
by means of the marginal effect, which account for the partial change in the probability. The
marginal effect associated with continuous explanatory variables Xk on the probability
P(yi=1|X), holding the other variables constant, can be derived as equation 2 (Greene 2011);
pi

  ( xi  )  k
xik
(2)
where  represents the probability density function of a standard normal variable.
The marginal effect on dummy variables should be estimated differently from continuous
variables. Discrete changes in the predicted probabilities constitute an alternative to the
marginal effect when evaluating the influence of a dummy variable. Such an effect can be
derived from equation 3 (Greene 2011).
  ( x , d  1)  ( x , d  0)
(3)
The definition belong to variables are defined in Table 1. In the study, the variables
considered affecting choices of households between preference alternatives are: gender
(GEN), age (AGE), education (EDU), professional status (PS), marital status (MS),
household size (HS), income (INC), milk consumption (MILKCON), milk price (MILKPRI),
11
reason of milk preference (PREFREA) and place of milk buying (MILKPLACE). In earlier
studies (Hill and Lynchehaun, 2002; Fuller et al., 2004; Hatirli et al., 2004; Vandermersch
and Mathijs, 2004; Peng et al., 2006; Pazarlioglu et al., 2007; Celik et al., 2006; Akbay and
Tiryaki, 2008; Alviola and Capps. 2009; Kilic et al., 2009; Tiryaki and Akbay, 2010)
properties such as household size, gender, age, education, professional status, marital status,
household income, ethnicity, and advertising were studied as exogenous variables.
Table 1. Definition of Variables
Variables
Defination
MILKPRE (Milk preference)
1= Packed milk; 0= Unpacked milk
GEN (gender)
1= Male; 0= Female
AGE (age)
0= 18-25; 1= 26-35; 2= 36-44; 3= 45 or older
EDU (Education)
0= Illiterate and primary school graduates; 1= Secondary
school graduates; 2= High school graduates; 3=
University graduate; 4= Post graduates
PS (Professional Status)
1= Employee; 2= Labourer; 3= Self employed; 4= Offprofession; 5= Retired
MS (Marital Status)
0= Married; 1= Single; 2= Divorced
HS (Household Size)
Average household
(People/Family)
INC (Income)
Average
monthly
(TL/Month/Household)
household
MILKCON (Milk Consumption)
Average
monthly
(kg/Month/Household)
milk
MILKPRI (Milk Price)
Packed milk price (TL/kg), unpacked milk price (TL/kg)
PREFREA
Preference)
(Reason
of
size.
Number
of
People
income;
consumption
Milk 0= Price; 1= Trade mark; 2= Taste; 3= Natural, organic
4= hygiene, package
MILKPLACE (Place of Milk Buying)
1= home delivery 2= selling point 3= supermarket 4=
handsellers 5= local bazaar 6= buying from village
In this study, in order to determine the most appropriate model the variables described
above, it was made various model experiments and was tested whether statistically significant
at 1% significance level or not. As a result, three estimators (EDU, INC, MPRICE) in the
probit model were found statistically significant at 1% level. Final model is below;
12
MILKPREi = β0 + β1EDUi + β2INCi + β3MILKPRIi + εi
3. RESULTS
The male respondents constitute 64.34% of total respondents while female respondents
constitute 35,66 % of it. Average age was 38.04. Educational attainment was classified into
five categories, illiterate and primary school graduates (14.33%), secondary school graduates
(8.33%), high school graduates (39.67%), university graduate (36.67%) and post graduates
(2.00%).
Average household size was found to be 3,95 people that is lower than the average household
size (4.50 people) of Turkey (TURKSTAT 2011).
Households earning less than $349 constituted 10 percent of total respondents, households
earning between $350 and $1050 (49 percent) and households earning higher than $1051 (41
percent). The survey results illustrate that average annual income of households was found
$8003 that was lower than the annual income per capita ($8215) of Turkey (UN 2011).
In Sivas, per capita average annual milk consumption is 39.96 kg per capita whereas it is 26
kg in Turkey (WMDA 2011; 8). 71.3% of households preferred packed milk while 28.7%
unpacked milk. 41.86% of illiterate and primary school graduates and 82.30% of university
graduates consume packed milk. While 73.33% of consumer in low income group consume
unpacked milk, 90.24% of consumer in high income group consume packed. 39.54% of
households preferred unpacked milk as a priority because of cheaper than packed milk. The
most important reasons were quality (28,64%) and hygiene (28.64%) for packed milk choice
of consumers.
Respondent consumed unpacked milk provided by home delivery (62.79%) and buying from
village (16.28%). Households consumed packed milk preferred supermarket (89.09%) and
selling point (10.91%). According to the results, consumers made a point of sell-by date
(44.09%), taste (36.82%) and brand (9.09%) for packed milk.
Table 2 presents results estimated from binary probit model. The model is significant at 1%
level of probability. The estimated coefficients and standard errors reveal which factor
influence respondents consumption intentions for fresh milk consumption. A statistically
significant coefficient suggests that the likelihood of consumption of product will increase/
decrease as the response on the explanatory variable increase/decrease (Borooah 2002).
McFadden Pseudo coefficient of determination (R2) was calculated about 0.288. This value
represents that variables placed in the model explain high level the probabilities of packed
and unpacked milk choice of consumers. Three estimators (EDU, INC, MPRICE) in the
probit model were found statistically significant at 1% level.
Table 2. Estimates of the binary probit model
Variable
Coefficient
Constant
EDU
-0.36167
0.29694
13
Std. Error
0.76226
0.12694
z- Statistic
Probability
-4.745
2.339
0.0000
0.0193
Marginal
Effects
-1.0164
0.0835
INCOME
MPRICE
Log-likelihood
Restricted Log-L
Pseudo-R2
x2 (df =11)
Significance level
Akaike
Info
Criteria
0.00057
-0.61494
-136.6527
-187.5953
0.288
105.66
0.00022
0.51561
2.548
6.110
0.0108
0.0000
0.0161
-0.0089
0.000
0.991
onsumer’s education level (EDU) was found out an important socio-economic factor for the
probabilities of packed and unpacked milk choice of consumers. In estimated model,
education level variable was statistically important at significant level 1% and related
positively. As educational level increases, tendency to consume rises packed milk and
decreases unpacked fluid milk. Educational level might be a good starting point to increase
the awareness of consumers concerning fluid milk consumption (Pazarlıoglu et al. 2007).
Estimated model results support to this hypothesis.
According to the estimated results, household’s income level (INCOME) is one of the factors
affecting their packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. This variable is included in
the model because low-income families may consume more unpacked milk when milk prices
are lower. There is a positive relationship between packed consumption consumers’ income
level and it is statistically significant at the level of 1%. For a household with high income
level, the probability of consuming packed milk decreased by only 1.6%. It would emphasize
that when income level rised, packed milk consumption increased. This result is a significant
and expected. Thus, households preferred unpacked milk (39.54%) as a priority because of
cheaper than packed milk. When increased in income level, consumption preferences of
households tend to the packed milk. It is a known fact that unpacked milk was unhygienic.
Therefore, it is said that households tend to the consumption of unpacked milk because of
their economic difficulties.
On the other hand, milk price (MPRICE) was determined as other main factors affecting their
packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. Price was the primary reason mentioned in
the survey for not purchasing packed fluid milk, as it was perceived as being quite expensive
compared to unpacked fluid milk. In average, Turkish consumers have been sensitive to price
of foods which they consume (Kilic et al. 2009). This variable found out significant at 1%
level and was related negatively. This sign indicated that consumers who were sensitive to
price were less likely to consume packed milk. According to the results, implied that
consumers preferred price of packed milk are expensive compared to unpacked milk were
less likely to consume packed milk. When milk price increased, the probability of packed
milk consumption decreased 0,9%.
4. CONCLUSIONS
This study focused on the socio-demographic factors influencing milk consumption in Sivas,
Turkey. The findings of this study show that consumer’s socio-economic characteristics were
affected unpacked and packed milk consumption preferences. According to the results from
binary probit model; education, income and milk price are significant and associated with
packed and unpacked fluid milk consumption. According to empirical results, consumers
14
with higher education and income levels tend to consume packed milk consumption. Also,
milk price was affective factor packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. In the light
of the findings, the necessary policies are needed as providing of accessibility to adequate
price, healthy, safety food and a mechanism reached to the level of per capita milk
consumption in developed countries. Also, on the basis of the results of this study, it would
be expected seller’s and companies’ marketing strategies on packed milk by looking at
specific consumer preferences.
REFERENCES
AEPDI (2011). Dairy Situation and Outlook: 2011-2012 (Agricultural Economics and Policy
Development Institute) Publication No: 191, ISBN: 978-975-407-326-3, Ankara.
Akbay, C. and Tiryaki, G.Y. (2008). Unpacked and Packed Fluid Milk Consumption Patterns
and Preferences in Turkey, Agricultural Economics, 38(1), 9-20.
Aldrich, J.H. and Nelson. F.D. (1984). Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models.
Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.
Alviola IV,P. and Capps, O, Jr. (2009). Household Demand Analysis of Organic and
Conventional Fluid Milk in the United States, Dep.of Agr. Eco.Texas A&M Uni.,
Res.Report.
Alwis, A.E.N., Edirisinghe, J.C. and Athauda, A.M.T.P. (2009). Analysis of Factors
Affecting Fresh Milk Consumption Among The Mid-Country Consumers, Tropical
Agricultural Research & Extension, 12(2),101-107.
Borooah, V.K. (2002). Logit and Probit: Ordered and Multinomial Models. Series
Quantitative Applications in the Social Science, No 138, Tousand Okas: Sage Publications.
Celik, Y., Bilgic, A., Karlı, B. and Celik, S. (2006). Factors Affecting Milk Consumption
Pattern in Southern Anatolian Region: An Application of a Two-stage Econometric Model,
Bodenkultur, 57(2), 57-64.
FAPRI (2012). World Dairy: 2011 Agricultural Outlook, http://www.fapri.iastate.edu
Fuller, F.H., Beghin, J.C. and Rozelle, S. (2004). Urban Demand for Dairy Products in China:
Evidence from New Survey Data, Working Paper 04-WP 380, Iowa, USA.
Greene, WH (2011). Econometric Analysis, Seventh Edition. Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
Hatirli, S.A., Ozkan, B., and Aktas, A.R. (2004). Factor Affecting Fluid Milk Purchasing
Sources in Turkey, Food Quality and Preference, 15(6),509-515.
Kilic, O., Akbay, C. and Tiryaki, Y. (2009). Factors Affecting Packed and Unpacked Fluid
Milk Consumption, Agricultural Economics– Czech, 55(11),557–563.
Liao, T.F. (1994). Interpreting Probability Models: Logit, Probit, and Other Generalized
Linear Models, Thousand Oaks, Sage Publications, Inc., California, USA.
OECD/FAO (2011). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020, URL http://dx.doi.org
Pazarlioglu, M.V., Miran, B., Ucdogruk, S. and Abay, C. (2007). Using Econometric
Modelling to Predict Demand for Fluid and Farm Milk: A Case Study from Turkey, Food
Quality and Preference, 18,416–424.
Peng,Y., West, G.E. and Wang, C. (2006). Consumer Attitudes and Acceptance of CLAEnriched Dairy Products, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 54(2006), 663–684.
15
Tiryaki, G. and Akbay, C. (2010) Consumers’ Fluid Milk Consumption Behaviors in Turkey:
An Application of Multinomial Logit Model, Quality and Quantity, 44,87–98.
TURKSTAT (2009). Regional Statistics, URL http://tuikapp.tuik.gov.tr
TURKSTAT (2011). Turkey’s Statistical Yearbook, 2010. Publication No: 3522, Ankara.
WMDA (2011). Dairy and Products Sectoral Report, West Mediterranean Development
Agency, http://baka.org.tr/uploads/1303486719SUT-URUNLERi-TURKCE-KATALOG.pdf
Yamane, T. (2001). Basic Sampling Methods, Literatur Publishing, Istanbul.
UN (2011). World Statistics Pocketbook. URL http://data.un.org/CountryProfile
Integration And Sustainability Of Technology-Enhanced Systems Into Learning
Environment: Cankiri Karatekin University Case Study
Ari Murat1, Pekel Abdullah2
1Cankiri Karatekin University, Chairman of Informatics Department, Cankiri, Turkey
2Marmara University, School of Foreign Languages, Istanbul, Turkey
Abstract
As a result of the continuous search for global competitiveness through providing the society
with high quality education in the light of emerging technologies, Cankiri Karatekin
University has embarked on a strategic planning and a pilot study on transition to Distance
Education (DE). Providing on-demand training for professional development, lifelong
learning, career change aimed at quite varied groups in society, Cankiri Karatekin University
sets its sight on maximizing the quality of communication and intellect sharing between
academic staff as well as enabling the effective assessment of their academic performance
thanks to the integrated e-learning/distance education and corporate communication platform.
According to this tested project based model, distance education infrastructure and
educational e-materials have been prepared and used as a supplement to formal education. By
this means, ensuring students’ and teachers’ readiness is aimed for the success of the future
pure distance education programs. The study evaluates the pilot project titled “Integrated Elearning and Teaching Environment” by Cankiri Karatekin University, which was founded in
2007 and strives for developing as a globally competitive academic institution by employing
an effective and efficient model in the use of technology in education. The technical
background features as well as results of the pilot project have been evaluated and further
suggestions have been presented, considering distance education practices in the world in
general and, in particular, the potential that Turkish Higher Education and Cankiri Karatekin
University carry in the field.
Keywords: Distance Education; e-learning;
Communication; Teaching Environment
16
Life
Long
Learning;
Institutional
1.INTRODUCTION
The biggest difference between an online, virtual classroom and the traditional classroom is
the way instruction is delivered. In a traditional classroom, the instructor is the center of
learning and information is presented orally or through tangible text. The text can be engaged
through active reading activities like highlighting, making notes in margins, and underlining
and circling important information. The course material can be discussed in class and
whatever questions or arguments arise can be answered and discussed face to face during the
class period. In a traditional classroom setting, the teaching and learning happen on a
synchronous schedule.
Conversely, online instruction occurs asynchronously. The instructor and the learners are
separated by time and space. Online courses take advantage of the Internet as a teaching and
learning environment; it’s open, distributed, dynamic, globally accessible, filtered, interactive
and archival in nature, (Elmore 2008). In online learning, the instructor acts as a guide to the
process of learning rather than its director. Dependence on the instructor is reduced and
students are empowered to take responsibility for their own learning referred to as Kosak et
al. (2004). Text still plays an important role in online learning but now the text can be
manipulated, searched, revised and updated and appears in short, and concise chunks, which
can be distributed through a wide array of multimedia. Discussion of the text is done through
online forums, live chats or e–mail messages. This situation involves references to Maguire
(2002).
The rapid advancement in Information Technologies has globally influenced the education
systems, and the integration of technology into education has increased the inclination
towards Distance Education (DE). Online courses are becoming increasingly popular
especially with the non–traditional student. The online students tend to be a mid-career adult
returning to school. Also, many students see online courses as a more convenient way to go
to school (Yang 2010). The trend does not seem to be slowing. In 2007, there was a 12.9
percent growth rate for online enrollments which exceeded the 1.2 percent growth of the
overall higher education student population (Zhen 2008). Universities are offering more
online courses to meet the demand.
It is important to draw attention to two issues. First of all, DE is not a supplement to
traditional formal education. Tailor-made hardware, lesson materials and technology-based
assessment methodology is employed in DE. Such a system is composed of the latest
hardware technology available. Secondly, DE is not a form of instruction that
underdeveloped countries use, on the contrary, most developed countries utilize DE systems
within formal – informal education system.
Newly-formed universities face numerous challenges, on rather limited institutional budget,
in competing with the universities that have long educational background. Thus, only the
institutions, which appreciate and keep pace with the latest technology, can go beyond the
existing frontiers in higher education and elevate their competitiveness.
In this study, Cankiri Karatekin University’s DE need analysis has been discussed. Besides,
system features and the results of the pilot study titled “Integrating e-Learning-Teaching
Environment Project” have been evaluated. It is evident that the system is likely to play a
prominent role in determining training systems according to Lifelong Learning practices.
17
1.1. Advances in Distance Education Field in Turkey and the Present Situation
In parallel with the competitive global conditions, Turkey has been intensively working on
the targets and strategies involving open and distance education in pursue of its targets related
to higher education. Beginning with THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BANK LOANS and
ECONOMIC GROWTH in TURKEY: 1995-2010
Emre Sezici, Murat Yaman the Open Education System at Anadolu University, the efforts
has gained perspective through TUBITAK-BILTEN DE Feasibility Study in 1997, and within
this framework Feasibility Analysis of Nation-Wide Distance Education Alternatives study
has probed then-current telecommunication infrastructure, needs analysis, alternative models
and cost-benefit along with copyrights in DE. As an addition to that, DE Regulations was
accepted and The National Committee of Informatics was founded in 1999. Such operation
areas as The Regulation of Cross-University Communication and IT-Based Distance Higher
Education, provision of lessons delivered via client/server matching between universities,
regulation of independent course/program launch with the authorization of YOK, and course
crediting are within The National Committee of Informatics’ scope of authority. As the final
step, UADMK-TUBA has been founded to provide support for the DE efforts (YOK 2011).
Turkey is a dynamic country and has a rather young population with 35 million people under
30 years old. Large portion of the young population are students. According to the recent
statistics by The Ministry of National Education (MEB), a total of 14.115.892 students attend
various schools and institutions of MEB. Additionally, around 3.180.000 students receive
education at more than 170 universities. When calculated, these figures comprise almost 25%
of the total population of the country. 1.7 million students take university admission exam
every year; however, only 400.000 of these are able to be placed in a higher education
program due to the lack of capacity problems (MEB 2011). Countries from the Balkans and
Caucasus, Central Asia, Middle East, North and Central Africa demand higher education
opportunities from Turkish higher education institutions as these countries are within the
regional and cultural sphere of influence of Turkey, which emerges as a center of attraction in
terms of education. IT potential has been used effectively in supporting DE. It is preferred
and promoted, thus increases its popularity day by day.
2.ÇANKIRI KARATEKIN UNIVERSITY AND DE
As of January 2012, there are a total of 176 universities, 108 of which are state universities
and 68 which are the ones belong to foundations, in Turkey. As more than 110 of these
universities were founded after 1992, they have yet to fully complete their physical or
academic development stage. According to Student Selection and Placement Center (OSYM)
2009 statistics, more than 3.180.000 students are within Turkish Higher Education System.
While 1.366.000 of these students continue their studies at Open Education Faculty,
1.640.000 students attend state universities and 176.000 students attend private universities.
31 associate degree programs at 14 universities, 1 degree completion program, 3 degree
programs at 1 university, and 19 masters programs at 15 universities are available via
Distance Education. Around 24.000 students receive education through distance education.
Besides, according to OSYM statistics, 111.000 teaching staff are employed within Turkish
Higher Education System. 50.000 of these currently work at the underdeveloped universities
that were opened in 1992 and after. Academic staff training and academic staff support
programs through DE are increasing their popularity as an effective in-service training tool
(YOK 2011)
18
Çankırı Karatekin University (CKU), established in 2007, is rapidly developing with 6
faculties, 4 institutes, 1 college, and 4 vocational schools and serves around 5500 students
through 266 academic personnel and 199 administrative staff. CKU appreciates the
advantages that DE technologies will bring as an effective tool in competing within higher
education sector. As a newly established university, CKU develops its technological
infrastructure in order to meet the hardware-related and physical needs. Technological and
topological features of the platform used in the pilot application shown in Figure 1 will be
presented in the following section.
Figure 1: CKU Blended Learning Online Schema
3. APPLICATION OF PILOT PROJECT
3.1 Project Goal
Delivering the Integrated Learning-Teaching Environment (ILE) solution that enables the
existing Interactive Whiteboard (IWB) and other Learning Toolsets to function as one
individual Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) towards University.
Our immediate ILE Objectives will transform the existing IWB from its initial stage into an
integrated learning-teaching environment for the masses built on a reusable and sustainable
learning-teaching framework envisioned by the University.
3.2. Standard ILE Features
Included in the following subsection but not limited to Assessment, Lesson Solution, Wiki
Solution, Glossary Solution, The Choice Activity, Course Solution, Workshop Solution, and
Photo Gallery are existing components within this ILE. Herein, we will briefly elaborate on
one of the solutions within the ILE. The overall ILE software and all existing components
given below are shown in Figure 2.
19
Figure 2: ILE Architecture diagram describing the 3 main working groups (stakeholders/executives, teachers, and students) and its integration into the system.
4. INSTRUMENTS, DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
In order to interpret the impact that the ILE had on the students’ learning outcomes, two
instruments will be used in this study: 1) the students’ final exam marks in the different
courses that same group of students attended during the same academic year by means of data
obtained from faculty archive about final exam results, and 2) a twelve item survey, which
measures students’ assessment of ILE usefulness based on the instrument developed by Wang
(2009). This survey included items relating to student interaction and active learning by
means of the ILE system, and based on a five point Likert scale. The scale ranged from
“Strongly Disagree” to “Strongly Agree”. Students’ satisfaction total score could range from
a very low satisfaction level of 10 to a very high satisfaction level of 50.
The data collected via first instrument is going to be analyzed for group comparison using the
independent samples t-test for students’ exam outcomes. The statistics assess whether the
means of two groups are statistically different from each other in order to be able to compare
them. The data will be analyzed further with the SPSS. We hope that, we will get all statistics
data at the end of this semester. In this study the first outcomes and system architecture were
evaluated without statistics.
5. DISCUSSION
We have structured the DE organization in two steps: step one is to transform traditional
teaching practices into technology-enabled ones, in order to keep up with modern teaching
methodologies in higher education as well as to establish institutional background for future
DE practices. There are numerous instances of such approaches which merge traditional
classroom practices with the online collaborative work, also called blended-learning or hybrid
learning. We have agreed that gradual transition from the traditional practices to the blended
learning and further, distance learning phase, is necessary for the successful structuring as
well as positive outcomes.
Blended courses make good use of advantages both face-to-face and online teaching practices
would provide. To illustrate, the students are able to discuss and analyze the topics that were
already covered online through digital self-study materials, Q&A sessions, topic forums, self
assessment quizzes. Besides, online discussions enabled the students in the way that they
could not in classroom environment. As everyone has a say without time or other social
pressures, online discussions give many students the opportunity to express themselves more
openly compared to the ones done in a regular class. Many students are reluctant to speak in
class because of shyness, uncertainty, or language issues. The ability to take their time to
compose questions and answers in an online discussion is an advantage to many students, and
instructors report much higher participation levels online than in class. Many students tend to
avoid contribution in classroom because of introversion, difficulty with oral expression and
for some other personal issues.
6. CONCLUSION
20
Online courses are growing in popularity and demanded particularly by non-traditional
students. Even though more and more universities are offering online courses, faculty
members are still reluctant to teach online courses. They are concerned about planning and
developing the courses, the overall quality of online courses and the lack of credit toward
merit, promotion and tenure. Cankiri Karatekin University is a newly formed university and it
is yet to complete its physical and academic structure. Thus, CKU aims at setting high
standards by integrating technology based systems into its programs, consequently
eliminating the drawbacks of the structural weaknesses. With this aim in hand, it prepares its
academic background for setting up DE programs by analyzing DE systems and launching
pilot projects. There are two components in DE: first one is to have academic staff that
possess the required know-how and expertise in using basic IT skills; second one is to create
quality and pre-leveled content. Therefore, universities are required to have the necessary
academic background and hardware infrastructure regarding these two components.
Otherwise, seemingly capable systems can turn into technological waste.
CKU has chosen to merge the opportunities that the accumulated know-how in the area
brings and its own dynamics in order to create academic and intellectual value. Towards the
target set ahead, gradual and proportional growth of the technological and relevant academic
prerequisites have been sought for. Therefore, blended-learning practices are intended to
form academic and system related basis of the future DE programs by avoiding trial-error
programs in distance education and developing the programs that address the specific needs
of the target group.
In this study, Cankiri Karatekin University’s DE needs analysis has been discussed within DE
course development in the world and Turkey and as an alternative solution, an integrated
learning and teaching environment platform provided by Birtel as well as Corporate
Communication Platform has been piloted as an assisting tool in formal education and its first
outputs have been evaluated. Further outputs will be analyzed with SPSS after collecting all
the data at the end of semester.
The following study will evaluate the statistical data and compare the success and system
competence levels of the teachers and students, who are adapted to the distance education
system, and those, who have directly started distance education program. Preparation of a
survey has been started in order to determine comparable success determining competencies
of the teachers and students, who earlier attended distance education programs without
probationary period in different universities.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The installation and maintenance of the platform that constitutes the infrastructure of the
distance education system, Softfoundry and Vmeet, has been provided by Birtel Network
Technologies free of charge.
REFERENCES
Elmore, H.W. (2008). Toward objectivity in faculty evaluation. Academe, volume 94
number 3, URL, http://aaup.org/AAUP/pubsres/academe/2008/MJ/
Kosak, L., Manning,D., Dobson, E., Rogerson, L., Cotnam, S., Colaric, S. & McFadden, C.,
(2004). Prepared to teach online. Perspectives of faculty in the University of North Carolina
21
system. Online Journal of Distance Learning Administration, volume 7, number 3. URL,
http://www.westga.edu/~distance/ojdla/fall73/kosak73.html
Maguire, L.L., (2002). Literature review-Faculty participation in online distance education:
Barriers and motivators. Online Journal of Distance Learning Administration, volume 8,
number 1, 2002. URL,
http://www.westga.edu/~distance/ojdla/spring81/maguire81.html
Yang, Y., (2010). Roles of administrators in ensuring the quality of online programs.
Knowledge Management & E–Learning, volume 2, number 4, 2010. URL, http://kmeljournal.org/ojs/index.php/online-publication/article/viewArticle/80
Zhen, Garthwait,Y. A. & Pratt, P., (2008). Factors affecting faculty members’ decision to
teach or not to teach online in higher education. Online Journal of Distance Learning
Administration, Volume 11, number 3. URL,
http://www.westga.edu/~distance/ojdla/fall113/zhen113.html
Republic of Turkey Ministry of National Education (MEB). URL,
http://www.meb.gov.tr/english/indexeng.htm
The council of Higher Education (YOK). URL,
http://www.yok.gov.tr/en/content/view/527/222/
Garrison, D. R., & Vaughan, N. D., (2008). Blended learning in higher education:
framework, principles, and guidelines. San Francisco, CA: Wiley & Sons, Inc.
[Holden, J. T. & Westfall, P., (2010). An Instructional Media Selection for Distance
Learning-Implications for Blended Learning. United States Distance Learning Association.
Wang, W., & Wang, C., (2009). An empirical study of instructor adoption of web-based
learning systems. Computers & Education, Vol. 53, No.3, pp. 761-774.
H2O persistence framework for column oriented distributed (NoSQL) databases
Dino Kečo, Dženana Đonko
University of Sarajevo, Faculty of Electrical Engineering
Zmaja od Bosne bb, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
E - mails: [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
Cloud architectures are most commonly used in cases when large scale data processing is
required. Building applications for cloud architectures requires a lot of engineering
experience, especially in cases of data persistence. Persistence in cloud architectures is solved
using NoSQL database models. In this paper we are working with column oriented NoSQL
database model. Main research goal of this paper is building of new persistence framework
22
for column oriented NoSQL databases. H2O (HBase to Object) framework is created to
resolve problem of mapping objects into rows in column oriented database and to provide
effective mechanisms for data retrieval. Main focus of this framework is to support
persistence of domain models presented by standard UML language. Current implementation
supports storing content into HBase NoSQL database. Core engine of H2O framework is
built on top of XPath standard. All mappings between domain model attributes and columns
in row are represented using XPaths. These paths are used to transform object into row and
vice versa. H2O framework contains component for integration with Hadoop map reduce
processing library to simplify writing of Hadoop map reduce parallel programs. We took two
hardware platforms of same price. First platform have HBase 0.90.1 and H2O installed and
other have installed Oracle 11g and Hibernate framework. We are comparing performance of
these two platforms from aspects of retrieval and persistence of objects. Result of our
comparison is that NoSQL model is better from aspects of retrieval by primary key but shows
lower performances in save operations.
Keywords: NoSQL, persistence, distributed, HBase, Hadoop, mapping, framework, UML,
map-reduce
1.INTRODUCTION
Problem of mapping and persistence of objects in relational database model was open
question for about 15 years [1]. This problem is resolved by ORM frameworks like
Hibernate. Mapping and persistence of objects into NoSQL database model is even harder to
solve because difference between models is much larger. Our work is focused on developing
framework which will resolve these two problems.
H2O framework is object/row mapping tool that provides user friendly interface to
persistence application layer. This interface is developed using DAO (data access object)
design pattern.
Because NoSQL database model is easy to integrate with map reduce programs, in this paper
we present H2O modules which are used for integration with Hadoop map reduce library [5].
Mainly these modules are used to simplify process of creating map reduce jobs.
This paper makes the following research contributions:
We present model of new persistence framework.
We present implementation of H2O framework with support for HBase database.
We present modules for integration with Hadoop map reduce library.
Section 2 provide more detailed explanation of mapping and persistence problem. In section
3 we present model of H2O framework. Section 4 provides implementation details with focus
on main components. We present model and implementation of components used for
integration with map reduce library in section 5 and we conclude in section 6.
23
2. PROBLEM FORMULATION
All business applications have domain model which is presented by graph of classes. In most
cases these classes are presented using UML modeling language. Main persistence problem is
mapping of graph of objects into format suitable for storing. In this case we are mapping
graph of objects into key value database storage.
ORM problems like granularity, subtypes, identity, data navigation, relation to association,
etc. [1] are even harder to solve because data models are much more different. Concepts like
inheritance, encapsulation and polymorphism doesn't exist in key value storages and because
of that it is necessary to find appropriate replacement for those concepts. What H2O is trying
to resolve is illustrated on Fig 1. and model of one solution, based on xpath standard [6], is
presented in next section of this paper.
Fig 1. Conceptual illustration of mapping problem for key value distributed storages
On the left side of Fig 1. we have graph of domain objects, while on the right side we have
key value database storage. H2O needs to find best possible way to map data presented like
graph of objects into row of key values storage and to keep data consistent in any possible
case.
3. FRAMEWORK MODEL
In this section we present model of H2O framework and it basic components which are
presented on Fig 2.
24
Fig 2. H2O basic components
Entry point component for user of H2O is Session, which provides basic methods (get, create,
update and delete) to work with database. Main component of H2O framework is
MappingEngine which performs conversion of graph of objects into key value row and vice
versa. IndexingEngine is component which provides support for indexing. PersistenceEngine
is component which is used for interaction with specific database implementation. In this case
we are using HBase persistence engine. IndexingEngine and PersistenceEngine should be
implemented by user for specific database and index implementations. MappingEngine, most
important and most complicated, component is based on customized xpath standard which is
capable to describe additional information about each path in graph of objects. This
customization is needed to describe data types (class) of nodes in graph of objects.
Problem of subtypes, which is main problem in ORM, is resolved in H2O by creating
different mappings for each of subtypes available. Although ORM persistence frameworks
have multiple strategies for persistence of subtypes [1] all of them are compatible with each
other. Because of that fact in H2O we are supporting just one mapping strategy for subtypes.
If there is a need for cycles in domain model that can't be resolved using xpath because xpath
is structure driven, which causes infinite loops in mappings. Because of this new component
is introduced, SerializationEngine, which uses one of standard serialization frameworks for
data serialization. Introduction of serialization enables H2O to handle cycles because
serialization frameworks are data driven [7]. Any user of H2O framework can easily
implement his own strategy of data serialization by extending interface of
SerializationEngine.
4. IMPLEMENTATION
In this section, we are presenting API which provide H2O framework for data persistence and
data retrieval. As part of this section we present basic comparison of persistence
25
performances between H2O/HBase and Hibernate/Oracle databases. For each comparison set
we have used same hardware platforms. We have used PowerEdge M805 Dell Blade servers
with two Quad Core Xeon processors and 128 GB of RAM memory. For Hibernate/Oracle
test we have used two M805 servers connected to Oracle cluster, and for H2O/HBase we
have used VM Ware virtualization and created 8 hosts for setting up HBase cluster. Each
node had 2 cores and 32 GB of RAM memory. Oracle RAC version 11g is used for setting up
Oracle database while HBase 0.90.1 version is used for HBase cluster.
Even if there is a big difference between relational and key/value database models, API on
DAO layer is same for any database if DAO design pattern is used in application architecture.
H2O framework is built for applications which will use DAO design pattern in their
architecture. Main advantage of this is that all business application can be modeled using
standard modeling languages like UML and persist that model into any type of database.
On Fig 3. we present DAO API which is provided by H2O framework for any kind of
database implementation.
Fig 3. API provided by H2O framework
As shown in Fig 3. H2O provides basic CRUD (Create, Read, Update, Delete) operations.
We have performed three tests to compare Oracle database and Hibernate as persistence
framework and HBase and H2O on the other side. We have performed following tests:
Data retrieval by primary key: In this experiment we monitor speed to read one record
(record size 2KB) from database by primary key. We performed these tests with different
number of records persisted in databases. Results of this tests are presented on Fig 4. As
shown on Fig 4. Relational database doesn't scale well when # of records is greater than 64
M.
Data persistence with increasing number of objects in graph: In this experiment we monitor
speed to persist one record but with variable record size (nodes in graph). Results on Fig 5.
shows that HBase/H2O is much slower than relational database, which is caused by
MappingEngine. MappingEngine component doesn't have multi-threaded processing and that
26
is main reason for slowness. Definitely there is open space for optimization of this
component.
Data persistence with static number of objects in graph: In this test we are inserting records in
database with variable number of records inside database. Results on Fig 6. shows that insert
in database is static regarding number of records persisted in database.
Fig 4. Data retrieval by primary key
Fig 5. Data persistence with increasing number of nodes in domain graph
Fig 6. Data persistence with static number of nodes in domain graph
27
5. MAP REDUCE INTEGRATION
Inspired by the map and reduce primitives present in functional languages, Google proposed
the Map Reduce [3] abstraction that enables users to easily develop large-scale distributed
applications. Mechanisms of fault tolerance is handled inside of map reduce library by reexecuting failed tasks.
In this model, the computation inputs a set of key/value pairs and produces a set of output
key/value pairs. The user of the map reduce library expresses computation as two functions:
Map and Reduce. Map written by user, takes an input pair and produces a set of intermediate
key/value pairs. The map reduce framework then groups together all intermediate values
associated with same intermediate values key and passes them to reduce function. The
Reduce function, also written by user, accepts intermediate key I and set of values for that
key. It merges together these values to form a possibly smaller set of values.
H2O framework goes one step more in abstraction over map reduce framework. Custom
adapters inside H2O framework enables that value inside key/value pair be a graph of
objects. This provides user more flexible and more user friendly interface to work with. This
enables faster development of map reduce applications where complexity of persistence and
mappings is hidden inside of H2O framework.
Because, H2O framework is build to work with Hadoop implementation of map reduce
library, adapters for integration, known as H2OInputFormat and H2OOutputFormat are
named by Hadoop naming standard.
6. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK
H2O is created to solve problem of mapping between graph of domain objects and row in
key/value storage. As presented in this paper there is a lot of open space for improvements in
MappingEngine component. Also support for other implementations of key/value storages
like Cassandra should be implemented.
Main reason why H2O is created is to speed up development process by using standard UML
modeling techniques and to solve all problems related to persistence. This will enable users to
focus on business logic instead of technical details. Integration with Hadoop map reduce
library provides easy way to write parallel applications and not even to worry about data
persistence.
For future we plan to create an open source project from H2O to involve more people into
this and to gather new ideas.
REFERENCES
Christian Bauer and Gavin King (2006.) - Java Persistence with Hibernate Second Edition of
Hibernate in Action, Manning,
Ming-Yee Iu and Willy Zwaenepeol - HadoopToSQL a MapReduce Query Optimizer,
EuroSys (2010),
Jeffrey Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat - MapReduce: Simplifed Data Processing on Large
Clusters, OSDI (2004),
28
HBase web page - hbase.apache.org,
Hadoop web page - hadoop.apache.org,
Jxpath web page - commons.apache.org/jxpath,
JacksonJSON web page - jackson.codehaus.org
The investigation of optimum welding parameters in connecting high alloyed
X53CrMnNiN219 and X45CrSi93 steels by friction welding
Mehmet Uzkut1, Bekirsadik Ünlü, Selimsarper Yilmaz2, Mustafa Akdağ3
1Celal Bayar University, Vocational High School, Department of Machinery,
45400, Turgutlu,Manisa, Turkey
2Celal Bayar University, Vocational High School, Department of Machinery,
45020, Manisa, Turkey
3Gediz University,Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering,
Menemen, Izmir, Turkey
E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected],
[email protected]
Abstract
In this study, different welding parameters are applied to two different steels with high alloys
and mechanical and metallographical investigations were performed. Thus, the optimum
welding parameters were investigated for these materials and working conditions. 12.30
diameter steel bars made up of 1.4871 (X53CrMnNiN219) & 1.4718 (X45CrSi93) steel were
used as experimental material. The material loss increased with increase in friction and
rotating pressure. The highest hardness and fracture energy were obtained in B5 group.
Keywords: Friction Welding, Welding Parameters, Microstructure.
1. INTRODUCTION
Joining has increasingly been used in the material technology because materials having
different mechanical properties need to be efficiently joined to increase material’s
performance. The most suitable method of joiningtwo different alloyed steel is welding(Anık,
1983). After welding process, the properties of welding zone naturally becomedifferent from
the properties of alloyed steels andthis difference maycause someproblems.The use melting
welding methods, among many kinds of welding methods, has also increased these
29
problems(Yılmaz, 1993). Phase diagrams and properties of joining materials are important
factors in determining welding properties (Bargel and Schulze, 1988). Some problems also
arise because the materials to be joined are different alloys and some additionalcomponents
are needed to effectively join them. Many different zonesappear in connecting zone
depending on composition and material properties (Yılmaz, 1993). Deposite remain of the
melting welding methods,welding faults of porosity and inside tightens of cooling are the
important disadvantages of these methods and they reduce the strength of welding.
Therefore,solid statewelding methods are more suitable sincemelting welding faults do not
significantly occur there(Tülbentçi and Yılmaz, 1989).
Vill(1962) has conducteda study to determine optimum conditions of friction welding
parameters. He has determined that friction pressure coming from welding parameters are of
great importance,the cycling number of turning component’s sensitivity is the least
paramaterand it can be fixed in a wide space depending on the materials used.
Moreover,Tyleotehas determined that friction pressure affects the heat of space surface and
supplies the required moment.He has also determined that forging pressure and cycling
number are the most important parameters (Tylecote, 1968). It can be said that low welding
periods have supplied the best welding zone in low carbon steels,which requires applying
forging pressure of one second as well as applying high forging pressure (Lucas, 1971). Low
welding periods andhigh forging pressure values forma thinner grainular structure for low
carbon steels (Duffin and Crossland, 1971).In notch impact test results, better mechanical
propertieshave been obtained onhigh cycling numbers between 1200 and 4200 rpm according
to other constant parameters (Voinov, 1972). A friction pressure of 30-65 MPa, and a
forgingpressure of 75-140 MPamust be applied for low carbon steels and a friction pressure
of 70-210 MPaand a forging pressure of 100-420 MPa for medium carbon steels (Welding
Handbook, 1980).
In another study, Ishibashi et al. (1993) determined that forging pressure value must be
appliedtwice as much as that of friction pressure for stainless steels.Ina study on tool steels, it
has been advised that the welding temperature and in turn friction pressure should be high
enough so that no faults on welding zones will occur(Tanicheva, et al., 1989). Initally,
conventional arc welding and then solid state joining methods were applied on welding
processes of stainless steels (Gooch et al., 1996). Today, friction welding is one of the solid
state joining techniques used widely for stainless steels. Bol’shokov et al.(1972) reported that
friction welding on vacuum condition improved mechanical properties of joined materials.
With the technological development in the valve manufacturing industry, the exhaust valves
of normal and diesel engines are manufactured from two different types of steels. The
“handling” parts of exhaust valves are manufactured from 1.4718 (X45CrSi93) steel which is
tough, ductile and resistant against wearing due to friction while the “head “parts are
manufactured from 1.4871 (X53CrMnNiN219) steel which shows a very good resistance
against oxidation, and hot corrosion caused by lead oxide and other burning products. Today,
this steel couple is joined by friction welding(Uzkut, 1999). Friction welding is one of the
methods which have some considerable share among the other conventional welding
methods. The most important parameters in friction welding are friction time, friction
pressure, forging time, forging pressure and rotational speed (Uzkut, 1999; Şahin and Akata,
2003).
Welding faults in the valve manufacturingmay occur due to thermal and mechanical stresses.
Therefore, optimizing welding parameters are essential. The determination of optimum
welding parameters and joining zones will minimize these faults on welded parts (Uzkut,
30
1999). In this study, optimum welding parameters of high alloyed X53CrMnNiN219 and
X45CrSi93 steels used in automotive industry were determined by joining friction welding
and by doing tensile, notch impact, metallography and microhardness tests.
2. EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES
X53CrMnNiN219 (1.4871) and X45CrSi93 (1.4718) high alloyed steels were used in the
experiments. Standards of materials are shown in Table 1,chemical composition of materials
in Table 2-3,standard measurements of welded tensile samples in Table 4, mechanical
properties of materials in Table 5.Rotation number (n) and forging time (t2) werekept
constant and friction time (t1), friction pressure (P1), and forging pressure (P2) had different
levels. Constant parameters and values for 12.3 mm diameter were determined as follows:
Constant parameters and values are as follows: experimental bar diameter is12.3 mm (H9),
during welding process,rotation number of spining parts is 3000 rpm, during machining
process,rotation number of spining parts is 1500 rpm, friction contact time is 0.4 s, brake
delaying time is 0.1 s, forging delaying time is 0.8 s, forging time is 2 s, friction pressure
rising time is 1 s, forging pressure rising timeis 1 s, and waiting time at the end of forging
time is 1 s. The levels of studied parameters were as follows: friction time (2.70, 3.70, or 4.70
s), friction pressure (138, 207, or 276), and forging pressure (345, 414, or 480 MPa).The
specimens subjected to friction pressureof 138 MPa is called group A, and friction pressure
of 207 MPa group B, and friction pressure of 276 MPa group C.
Tensile test, one of mechanical tests, was carried on by 5 tone capacity universal 1114 model,
INSTRON type depending on TS-138 (Turkish Standard). Tensile velocity was taken as 1
mm/min at tensile test. Notch impact test was carried on at 25 0C depending on TS-269.
Notch was opened on welding line as standart. Some suitable standart measurements were
applied on specimen.
1.4871 materials were etched for 10 s and 1.4718 materials at 3 s by 5 % nital on optical tests.
These tests were carried on in CARL ZEISS JENA type optical microscope atDokuzEylül
University laboratories (Izmir, Turkey). A 1360 pyramide point Vickers type was used for
microhardness tests. Microhardness tests were carriedout at distance of 10 µm to welding and
parallel to welding cross-section on this study 80 g load was used for these tests; however, a
load from 25 g to 100 gcould be applied on microhardness tester. Microhardness tests were
carried out in CARL ZEISS JENA type microhardness tester at DokuzEylül University
labaratories. SEM tests were carried out on by using JEOL JXA-733 type at DokuzEylül
University laboratories (Izmir, Turkey).
Table 1. Standards of materials.
Material
31
DIN
W.Nr
AF NORM
BS
EURO NORM
X53CrMnNiN
219
1,4871
Z52CMN2109
349S52
X53CrMnNiN219
X45CrSi93
1,4718
Z45CSİ10
401S45
X45CrSi8
Table 2. Chemical composition of 1.4871 material.
Chemical composition (% wt)
Material
C
Si
Mn
Cr
Ni
N
P
S
1.4871(theor
ical)
0.480.58

0.30
710
20 22
3.25 4.5
0.38 0.5
Max.
0.050
Max.
0.030
1.4871
(analysis)
0.50
0.27
8.1
9
20.11
3.90
0.4
0.025
0.001
Table 3. Chemical composition of 1.4718 material.
Chemical composition (% wt)
Material
C
Si
Mn
Cr
P
S
1.4718
(theorical)
0.40 - 0.50
2.70 3.30
 0.80
8 - 10
Max.
0.040
Max. 0.030
1.4718
(analysis)
0.42
2.73
0.47
8.71
0.017
0.001
Table 4. Standard measurements of welded tensile samples.
h (mm)
d0 (mm)
d1 (mm)
6
8
25
(l0 = 10 d0)
l 0 (mm)
l v (mm)
l t (mm)
60
66
125
Table 5.Mechanical properties of 1.4871 and 1.4718 materials.
Material
Diamet
er
Lengt
h
1.4871
(standard)
(mm)
12.25812.300
(m)
3.54.0
32
Mechanical properties
Circularr
Surface
y (mm)
Roughness
Max.
0.03
(m)
Max. 0.8
Hardn Tensile
ess
Strength
(HRC
Max.
)
40
(MPa)
950-1250
1.4871 (test)
12.28012.290
4.0
0.0050.02
0.3-0.8
37-40
1120
1.4718
(standard)
12.25812.300
3.54.0
Max.
0.03
Max. 0.8
29-35
950-1125
1.4718 (test)
12.28012.290
4.0
0.0050.01
0.6-0.8
29-32
1030
3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
3. 1. Mechanical Properties
When tensile tests results were examined, mechanical properties of group B were betterthan
those of group A or C. The basicrepresentative property of groupB is that friction pressure is
207 MPa. Break out did not occurin welding zone on B4, B5, and B6. Common determining
characteristic of this group is that friction pressure (P1) and forging pressure (P2)values were
takenconstant whereas friction time is variable on these groups. Yield and tensile strength
were similar. As a result, it can be seen that friction time is a determining parameter among
these three groups. In determining optimum welding parameters,breaking point in tensile bar,
the suitability of post-tensioning yield and tensile strength values for acceptable values of
materials and percentage of extent quantity havesignificance.Fractures in 1.4871
materialoccurred out of welding zone in group B5. Yield strength was 854 MPa, tensile
strength value was1081 MPa.
When notch impact tests results are examined,it has been determined the energy quantities
spent to break the samples of group B are more than those of the other two groups and the
samples of B5 in group B spent the highest energy quantity.
Based on microhardnessresuts,microhardness values did not increase ingroup B5 samples, but
microhardness valuessignificantly increased 4 mmaway from centre. The microhardness
value was 400 HV in outer cross section for 1.4871 materials,while it was 439 HV in centre.
Microhardnesswas 483 HV in the centrewhile it was 439 HV in outer cross section for 1.4718
materials. The cooling was the slowestin the centre of materials. Consequently, element
diffusion in materials centretakes much longer time. In addition, movement and mechanical
orientationwere alsominimalin the center due to material deformation. Therefore, it is
determined that the highest microhardness value is in the center of materials.The variations of
microhardness values depending on distant are shown in Fig. 1.The hardnessdistributions
were determined by using optical and scanning electron microscope.
Fig.1. Variation of hardness of B5 sample in welding zone.
700
P1=207 MPa, P2=414 MPa, t1= 3.70 s
600
400
300
Welding interface
33
Hardness (HV 0.08)
500
200
1.4871 steel
100
0
-300
-200
-100
1.4718 steel
0
Distance from welding centre (μm)
100
200
300
Total length shortening quantity (mm)
Length shortening quantities on post welding and effects of parameters on length shortening
are explained by graphics depending on parameter groups in Fig. 2. As seen in figures,
variation on length shortenings depending on welding parameters is linear. A significant
material loss due to burning occurs in 1.4718 materialson friction welding joints. Total
material loss reaches the highest values in the parameter groups having the highest friction
time. When we regard all these criteria; A9, B3, B5, B6, B8, B9, C4, C7 and C8, parameter
groups differ from other groups according to the length shortening quantities. Efficient length
shortening quantities can notbe obtained for 2.7 s friction time. By increasing friction
pressure and forging pressure values it is determined that there is much more material loss in
the groupssubjected to4.7 s friction time. Length shortening quantities could not be obtained
at low friction time in group B samples. In the light of these results, group B5 can be
considered ideal for length shortening.
16
14
12
P1=138 MPa
10
P1=207 MPa
8
P1=276 MPa
6
4
2
0
300
350
400
450
500
Forging pressure (MPa)
Fig.2. Quantities of total length shortening depending on friction pressure for varry friction
time (P2= 414 MPa).
In joining A6061 alloy and SUS304 stainless steel by friction welding, it has been observed
that high forging pressures affect the joining strength positively and tensile strength of
notched samples increaseswith forging pressure and maximum effectiveness of joining is
seen as 87-93 %percent (Ochi etal., 1996).
In another study, energy absorption of normalized welding joining is rather more than a
normalized one, and energy transition temperature has been determined at about 24 0C at
normalized welding joining. This temperature is harmonious with temperature on fracture
surface. Crack proceeding strength of normalized welding joining is higherthan that of a
normalized one. Impact bending strength of normalized welding joining is almost the same as
hot processed metal (Kato et al., 1996).
Şahin et al.(1996)conducted tensile and microhardness tests, heat and SEM studiesin welding
zone to determine heat affected zone (HAZ)metalurgical variations on Al-Al, Al-Steel, and
steel-steel using different parameters of friction welding.They reported that welding
parameters significantly affected yield, tensile and fracture strength and HAZ zone near the
Al was wider on Al-steel joinings. Preperation measures of welding joining must be taken as
34
1-10 mm per welding joining by considering length shorteningduring surface preperationin
welded joints (Anık, 1983).
Ogawa et al.(1993)reported high material lossin friction welding of S45C steel, so it has to be
examinedfor its economical impact. In this study, low hardness thin grained ferrite, and
pearlite layer occured on HAZ. Slope of hardness distribution on joining zone has been
determined to be low at wider space.
Şahin(2005)determined optimum welding parameters as follows: friction time (4 s), friction
pressure (110 MPa) and tensile strength (600 MPa) on high-speed steel (HSS-S6) and
medium carbon steel (AISI 1040). He determined hardness of welding zone as 700 HV.
Şahin(2007) determined that optimum welding parameters as friction time 9 s, friction
pressure 60 MPa and tensile strength 800 MPa on stainless steel (AISI 304). He determined
hardness of welding zone as 200 HV. In these studies, the tensile strength of the joints
increased with the friction time and pressure, and it raised a maximum, but it decreased for
more friction time and pressure (Şahin, 2005; Şahin, 2007). Ateş et al. (2003) determined
friction time as 6 s, friction pressure 70 MPa, and tensile strength 850 MPa on MA 956 ironbased superalloy. They determined hardness of welding zone as 700 HV. In this study, tensile
strength increased with forging pressure and with friction pressure up to a certain value in
HAZ.
Özdemir(2005) and Özdemir et al. (2007)determined that hardness of welding zone as about
1000 HV on AISI 304 and AISI 4340 steel.In these studies, for excellent welding parameters
“the friction time was held as short as possible, while the rotational speed, friction and
forging pressure was chosen as high as possible. Satyanarayana et al.(2005)determined that
hardness of welding zone as about 270 HV, and notch tensile strength 690 MPa on AISI 304
and AISI 430 steel.The differences in our results and those of other previous studies may be
attributed to the fact that their materials and welding parameters were different from ours.
3. 2. Microstructure Properties
When microstructure results are examined, it has been observed that friction time does not
cause any noticeable differences in inner microstructure due to low friction pressure ingroup
A samples. Heat affected zone (HAZ) is observed to be thicker ingroup C samples. These
zones are seen to be much wider especially in the groups, belonging to the values of
increasing forging pressure and friction time. Mechanical orientation and wider HAZ are
observed on group C5 and 1.4871 materials. Mechanical orientation of grains is certainly
seen from central to outer on grains. Certain microstructure and standart thickness HAZ were
observed on group B samples (Fig. 3).
35
Fig.3. Mechanical orientation and Fe2C carburs of B5 sample in welding central (x45).
When forging pressure resuts are examined; in the inner structure of groups the high forging
pressure values from central to outer mechanical orientation in grains, coming out due to
deformation during welding is observed (Fig. 3). This orientation is possible for each of
thetwo materials. Standart thickness and more obvious HAZ are seen ingroup B samples (Fig.
4).
Fig.4. Grain flattening of B5 sample in HAZ of 1.4871 material (x450).
When tensile and notch impact tests results are examined, better mechanical were obtained in
group B5 samplesas compared with the other groups. When optical microscope images of
group B5 are examined; martensitic microstructure of 1.4718 materials waspresent at a
distant zone of welding. Austenitic microstructure of 1.4871 materials is seen at a zone way
from welding. Black zones occured in microstructures are Fe2C carburs on austenit grain
boundaries and some austenit grains. SEM image of 1.4718 and 1.4871 material
microstructure in a zone away from welding was shown as 4000 times magnified in Fig. 24.
SEM image of welding interface in two materials was shown as 4000 times magnified in Fig.
5.
36
Fig.5. SEM image of welding interface in two materials (x4000).
Şahin(2005; 2007), Ateş et al. (2007), Özdemir(2005) and Özdemir et al. (2007), and
Satyanarayana et al. (2005)observed thin grained structure in welding zone, and observed
grain orientation in HAZ in medium carbon steels, and stainless steels.Ateş et al. (2007)
reported that HAZ and grain orientation in microstructure increased with increasing friction
pressure. They reported that HAZ and grain orientation in microstructure decreased with
increasing forging pressure. In our study, similar microstructure results were obtained.
4. CONCLUSIONS
In this study, the optimum welding parameters were determined in materials during the
connection of X53CrMnNiN219 and X45CrSi93 steels by friction welding.Based on the
findings of this research, the following conclusions can be drawn:
1. Efficient length shortening quantities can not be obtained in the samples in which friction
time is applied as 2.7 s. It has been determined that there has been more material loss with
increased friction pressure and forging pressure in the groups where the highest friction time
was 4.7 s. While the ideal length shortening is 7-10 mm, it is 8.85 mm for B5.
2. Break from welding zone is not observed on the samples of group B5 on tensile tests. For
tensile properties, B5 parameter group has been determined as an ideal parameter group.
3. The highest fracture energy (toughness) on tensile tests was observed in group B5.
4. Profiles hardness of A group occured on near 1.4871 material of welding zone, and the
highest value of hardness of these samples occured near 1.4718 material of welding zone.
The slope of hardness profile on group B and C was much higher than that of group A in the
welding zone.
5. Carbur formations were clearly observed along direction lines of HAZ and mechanical
orientations on group B5 optical micrscope images. Austenitic structure occured on
microstructure distant welding zone 1.4718 and martensitic structure occured on 1.4871
material on distant welding zone. Next to welding zone, gain shortening and grain flatness
occured as perpendicular deformation in 1.4871 materials.
37
6. Optimum welding parameters;friction time(t1) was determined as 3.7 s, friction pressure
(P1) was determined as 207 MPa, forging pressure (P2) was determined 414 MPa on B5
group and joining by friction welding 1.4871 and 1.4718 materials.
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39
Positive Attitudes of Undergraduate Students toward Online Shopping
Ali Acılar
Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi
[email protected]
Abstract
In recent years, computers and the Internet have become an important part of modern
societies. These technologies have influenced almost all aspects of daily life; from education
to communication, from entertainment to business. Along with the spread of the Internet use,
the acceptance of online shopping has been growing, especially in the developed parts of the
world. However, electronic commerce is still in its infancy in developing countries. In this
study, the author explored positive attitudes of undergraduate students toward online
shopping and examined the association between positive attitudes of undergraduate students
toward online shopping and their demographics variables: gender, age and income. And
attitudes of online shoppers and non-online shoppers toward online shopping were compared.
Participants of this study were undergraduate business students in a public university in
Turkey. A paper-based questionnaire was used containing five-point Likert type scale to
explore students’ attitudes toward online shopping. A total of 314 students voluntarily
participated to the study. It is found that in general participants have positive attitudes toward
online shopping. Online shoppers have more positive attitudes than non-online shoppers
toward online shopping. Generally male students have more positive attitudes toward online
shopping than female counterparts. There is a positive correlation between income level and
positive attitude toward online shopping; as monthly family income increases, participants
have more positive attitudes toward online shopping.
Keywords: Online shopping, undergraduate students, positive attitudes
1.INTRODUCTION
Electronic commerce has become a worldwide phenomenon (Mahmood, Bagchi & Ford,
2004). According to Nielsen’s 2008 report, more than 85 percent of the world’s online
population has used the Internet to make a purchase (Nielsen, 2008). The volume of businessto-consumer (B2C) e-commerce transactions has continued to increase. According to the
United States Census Bureau, the total volume of B2C e-commerce transactions in the United
States was estimated to be 298 billion dollars in 2009 with an increase of 2.1 percent from
2008 (United States Census Bureau, 2010). As a developing country, in Turkey, Internet use
and B2C e-commerce transactions have also increased. The Interbank Card Center (BKM)
reported that, in Turkey, while domestic and international e-commerce transactions with
domestic cards were total of 1.8 billion Turkish liras (TL) (The total number of transactions =
17,668,587) in 2005, it reached to 14.1 billion TL (The total number of transactions =
96,138,157) in 2010 (BKM, 2011), (1 TL is about 0.55 U.S. dollars, December 06, 2011).
40
Online shopping has become a popular way to purchase almost everything from electronics to
books and CDs to tickets and clothing. However there are considerable numbers of people
still hesitating to buy online because of various reasons, such as security and privacy.
Security issues, online fraud, reduced opportunity for sensory shopping, the postponement of
consumption or enjoyment of tangible products until physical delivery, poor design interface,
privacy concerns, limited product selection, and lack of face-to-face interactions with
salespeople are some of the challenges that are often cited in the literature as obstacles for
B2C e-commerce (Tamimi, Sebastianelli and Rajan, 2004). Barriers to online shopping can
be categorized such as functional and psychological barriers (Rudolph, Rosenbloom and
Wagner, 2004), as the major barriers which create customer resistance to innovations do
(Ram and Sheth, 1989). According to Ram and Sheth (1989), functional barriers are likely to
arise if consumers perceive significant changes from adopting an innovation and
psychological barriers arise when the innovation causes some conflict with customers' prior
beliefs. Usage, value and risk barriers refer to functional barriers, whereas tradition and
image barriers constitute psychological barriers (Ram and Sheth, 1989).
Demographics and lifestyle characteristics of customers play an important role in their buying
habits (Mahmood, Bagchi & Ford, 2004). While gender differences exist in choosing to visit
different types of website, possibly based on the different personality traits of males and
females, these differences also exist in online shopping experiences (Yang, Lester and James,
2007). Garbarino and Strahilevitz (2004) found that females perceive a higher level of risk in
online purchasing than do males. Jen-Hung and Yi-Chun (2010) studied gender differences in
adolescents' online shopping motivations based on utilitarian and hedonic motivations
surveying high school students in Taiwan and found that males hold significantly more
positive attitudes toward online shopping on utilitarian motivations (for example,
convenience, lack of sociality and cost saving) than the females whereas, females put more
emphasis on hedonic motivations (for example, adventure, sociality, fashion and value) on
Internet consumption. Hashim, Ghani and Said (2009) found that males tend to become more
online shopper compared to females. And their study supports that while males tend to be
convenience shoppers due to the high commitment on work and study, females tend to be
recreational shoppers and would prefer to do their shopping using the conventional way
(Hashim, Ghani & Said, 2009). Rodgers and Harris (2003) revealed that females were less
emotionally satisfied with online shopping than males, most likely because females skeptical
of online shopping and did not find it as convenient as males. In their study, males reported
greater trust in online shopping and perceived the Internet as a more convenient shopping
outlet than did females. Overall, males had more positive attitudes toward online shopping
than females (Rodgers and Harris, 2003). Previous studies have reported that age also affects
attitude toward online shopping. Hashim, Ghani and Said (2009) reported that there is
significant difference on the attitude toward online shopping differentiated by age. Their
study results revealed that those who are between 30 to 39 years old do more online shopping
compared to those between 20 to 29 years old and those over 40 years old. Sulaiman, Ng, and
Mohezar (2008) found that age is one of the affecting variables in e-ticketing adoption; eticketing is more popular among consumers, age between 26 to 35 years old than 18 to 26
years-old customers. Income levels affect the Internet users’ online shopping propensity
(Zukowski and Brown, 2007). Monsuwe, Dellaert and Ruyter (2004) reported that consumers
with higher household income intend to shop more online than lower income consumers do.
Teo (2006) found that online shopping adopters tend to have higher income level than nonadopters. Mahmood, Bagchi and Ford (2004) found that the factors of trust and economic
conditions make a significant positive contribution to online shopping behavior.
41
While security and privacy issues continue to play an important role in affecting customers
purchasing decisions online, understanding the attitudes of Internet users toward online
shopping also important for understanding the dynamics of customers’ behavior in online
environment. In this study, the author explores the positive attitudes of undergraduate
students toward online shopping and examines the association between positive attitudes of
undergraduate students toward online shopping and their demographics variables: gender, age
and income. Attitudes of online shoppers and non-online shoppers toward online shopping
were also compared.
2.METHODOLOGY
2.1.Instrument
A paper based questionnaire was used in order to examine students’ attitudes toward online
shopping. Students’ attitudes toward online shopping were assessed using eleven five-point
Likert-scale questionnaire items (1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree) adapted from
Yang, Lester and James (2007). The questionnaire also includes demographic questions.
2.2. Participants
Participants of this study were undergraduate business students in a public university in
Turkey. Participants were selected according to convenient sampling. The participation was
voluntary and anonymous. A total of 314 respondents completed the questionnaire, of which
311 were used for the purpose of this study. The sample included 194 female students
(62.4%) and 117 male students (37.6%). The average age of the participants was 20.81
excluding missing values. Majority of the participants are experienced Internet users. More
than 70 percent of the participants have been using the Internet for more than 3 years. While
55 percent of the participants use the Internet less than 9 hours weekly, 19.9 percent of the
participants use it more than 24 hours weekly. 171 participant students (54.98%) stated that
they have been shopped online at least once.
2.3. Data Analysis and Results
The respondent students generally have positive attitudes toward online shopping. Figure 1
shows the respondents’ agreement with selected statements about online shopping.
Concerning information, majority of the participants agree that Internet provides easy access
to information about goods/services (78.8 percent) and Internet provides comprehensive
information about goods/services (71.6 percent). Regarding purchasing goods online, 79.6
percent agree that they can order things from distant places and 78.6 percent agree that they
can purchase goods at any time of the day. 68.4 percent agree that they can access to a great
variety of products. But concerning price, 55.8 percent believe that they can get better price
online. 53.7 percent believe that online shopping saves walking from store to store. And 53.7
percent agree that they can stay home and shop.
42
Figure 1: Respondents’ agreement with statements about online shopping
Table 1 presents the results of t-test concerning participant students’ attitudes toward online
shopping regarding gender. According to the results of t-test, there were significant
differences between males and females in their attitudes toward online shopping in six items.
Generally male students have more positive attitudes toward online shopping than female
students. Males agree that online shopping saves walking from store to store more than
females do. Females do not agree that online shopping saves walking from store to store, it
requires less effort and they can get better prices as much as males do. Male students agree
that they can order things from distant places; they can purchase goods at any time of the day
and they can choose from a greater variety of models of the product more than female
students do.
1. It provides easy access to information
2. It provides comprehensive information
3. I can purchase goods and services faster
4. I can stay home and shop
5. It saves walking from store to store
6. It requires less effort on my part
7. I can get better prices
8. I can order things from distant places
9. I can purchase goods at any time of the day
10. I can choose from a greater variety of models of the product
11. I can gain access to after-sales services online
Gender
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
Mean
3.99
3.85
3.84
3.85
3.76
3.53
3.25
3.47
3.21
3.53
3.43
3.77
3.33
3.63
3.82
4.08
3.82
4.06
3.60
3.86
3.47
3.66
SD
0.90
1.08
0.99
1.06
1.01
1.12
1.18
1.10
1.23
1.17
1.10
0.98
1.19
1.14
1.05
0.77
1.06
0.82
1.08
0.97
1.02
1.04
Mean
Diff.
t
p
0.14
1.17
0.242
-0.01
-0.11
0.912
0.22
1.76
0.080
-0.22
-1.61
0.108
-0.32
-2.28
0.023*
-0.33
-2.77
0.006**
-0.30
-2.19
0.029*
-0.26
-2.49
0.014*
-0.24
-2.21
0.028*
-0.26
-2.23
0.027*
-0.19
-1.55
0.123
Table 1: Differences between gender groups in their attitudes toward online shopping
SD = Standard deviation, * indicates significant at the 0.05 level, ** indicates significant at the 0.01 level
43
1. It provides easy access to information
2. It provides comprehensive information
3. I can purchase goods and services faster
4. I can stay home and shop
5. It saves walking from store to store
6. It requires less effort on my part
7. I can get better prices
8. I can order things from distant places
9. I can purchase goods at any time of the day
10. I can choose from a greater variety of models of the product
11. I can gain access to after-sales services online
Online
shopper
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Mean
4.04
3.82
3.94
3.73
3.86
3.45
3.63
2.97
3.55
3.05
3.78
3.28
3.78
3.04
4.17
3.61
4.19
3.57
3.97
3.36
3.80
3.22
SD
0.90
1.05
1.01
1.02
1.02
1.06
1.11
1.11
1.22
1.16
1.01
1.07
1.11
1.13
0.87
0.99
0.87
1.00
0.93
1.09
0.93
1.06
Mean
Diff.
t
p
0.22
1.95
0.052
0.21
1.84
0.066
0.41
3.44
0.001**
0.66
5.21
<0.001**
0.50
3.69
<0.001**
0.50
4.17
<0.001**
0.75
5.84
<0.001**
0.56
5.29
<0.001**
0.63
5.81
<0.001**
0.61
5.22
<0.001**
0.58
5.06
<0.001**
Table 2: Differences between online shoppers and non-online shoppers in their attitudes toward
online shopping
SD = Standard deviation, ** indicates significant at the 0.01 level
Table 2 presents the results of t-test concerning differences between online shoppers and nononline shoppers in their attitudes toward online shopping. T-test indicated that there is a
significant difference between online shoppers and non-online shoppers. As expected, online
shoppers have more positive attitudes toward online shopping than non-online shoppers.
Regarding age and income, the results of the correlation analysis indicate that there is no
significant correlation between age and students’ attitude toward online shopping (see table
3). However, there is a significant positive correlation between monthly family income and
seven attitude items related to online shopping. It reflects that income levels have a positive
effect on students’ attitudes on shopping online, as monthly family income increases,
undergraduate students have more positive attitudes toward online shopping.
Age
Income
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
44
Age
1
-.06
.00
-.03
-.04
.07
.08
.04
.08
.01
.09
Income
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
.08
.12*
.04
.15**
.13*
.08
.16**
.12*
.15**
1
.86**
.59**
.35**
.27**
.27**
.27**
.39**
.34**
1
.55**
.37**
.29**
.33**
.27**
.38**
.34**
1
.51**
.44**
.31**
.40**
.43**
.38**
1
.75**
.60**
.65**
.56**
.62**
1
.69**
.64**
.60**
.58**
1
.65**
.67**
.60**
1
.65**
.63**
1
.82**
1
10
11
10
11
.04
-.03
.12*
.10
.32**
.26**
.29**
.27**
.34**
.34**
.50**
.49**
.48**
.50**
.52**
.56**
.57**
.51**
.62**
.62**
.70**
.62**
1
.60**
1
Table 3: Results of correlation analysis
3. CONCLUSIONS
This study, which is part of ongoing research, has investigated the positive attitudes of
undergraduate students toward online shopping. The findings suggest that in general
participant students have positive attitudes toward online shopping. It is found that online
shoppers have more positive attitudes than non-online shoppers, as expected. In general male
students have more positive attitudes toward online shopping than female students. There is a
positive correlation between income level and positive attitude toward online shopping; as
monthly family income increases, participants have more positive attitudes toward online
shopping.
The findings of the present study should be viewed in the light of its limitations. First, the
convenience sampling technique was used for the selection of the sample. Second, the survey
was conducted among students in the Department of Business Administration in a public
university in Turkey.
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A Study About Mobbing On Students, The Relationship Between Their Personality
Traits And Mental Status
Zeki Akinci, Osman Nuri Demirel, Yusuf Yilmaz
Akdeniz University, Turkey
E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to assess the effect of psychological violence (mobbing) on the
mood of students attending colleges and on how the mood affects their traits. In this context,
the effect of the violence level as psychological impact on the mood of students was
examined in the process of personality traits. The sample group of the study consists of 250
46
last class students studying at a social sciences vocational school in Antalya, Turkey.
Behaviour scale for psychological violence, scale of personality characteristics and
depression scale were used in the study. Perceptions of mobbing of the students came from
rural areas with low-income are higher than city dwellers students with normal or high
income levels. However, it was observed that male students were exposed to mobbing more
than female students.
Keywords: Psychological violence, personality traits, mood
BACKGROUND
1. MOBBING
According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), mobbing is defined as, "
behavior in attitudes for the purpose of manifesting individual or group sabotage, revenge,
cruel, malicious or insulting " (Karavardar, 2009). At the same time, mobbing is identified as
a problem rapidly growing in workplaces by International Labour Organization. Mobbing,
constituting behavior to the target person for humiliating and intimidating. This type of
behavior are laid out with the open or secret using verbal or nonverbal behaviors (Lewis et
al., 2002).
Mobbing is done expressing hostile and unethical communication in a systematic way in
working life that is applied by one or a few people against a person to make one helpless and
defenseless according Leymann'a (1996). Mobbing behavior is usually performed, covering a
long period.
According Tınaz (2008), eight chapters are grouped under the facts underlying the
mobbing behavior. These are:







Enforcing individual to get the rule of group accepted
To enjoy from hostility
Only the pleasure
Boredom
Reinforce prejudices
Believe that they have exclusive rights
Selfishness
The risk of mobbing targets is valid for everyone in all businesses and cultures. Although
mobbing process mechanism in the process develops in different ways in different offices
typically it is observed in a very typical and a similar way. Four different types of individual
are in danger of being victimized in workplaces (Huber, 1994):
Only one person: This person can be a single male / female working in an office whether
he/she works with the large numbers of female or visa versa in a workplace.
A different person: any person who is non-fusible and different from others, This can be an
individual dressed in a different manner as well as impaired or foreign person. Sometimes,
being just one single person within married persons in an office, or being a married person
within singles is a sufficient reason to be victim of mobbing. Mobbing possibility is very high
of minority people to be involved in a group.
47
Successful people: has a major achievement, winning the admiration of the supervisor or
direct administration of a customer or a person who praises, can easily envied by colleagues.
All kind of games are played from behind of individuals, rumors can be removed and expose
to work sabotage.
New particapated person: Prensence of a popular person working in that position before, or
have very much liked than the new arrival one with higher quality than the other persons
working there increases the risk of being victim of mobbing.
Workplace mobbing, takes place in four phases (Tınaz et al, 2008).
In the first stage, the conflict is in question
The second stage, there is the start of the workplace psychological harassment
The third stage, the introduction of business management and false ascription and definitions
could be mentioned
In the fourth stage, there are moving away from working life
Mobbing, as the results of both the victim exposed to mobbing is of great importance both
in terms of business (Tinaz, 2008). According to the report of the International Labour
Organisation (1998), mobbing in terms of business, medium-and long-term, interpersonal
relations, and undermine the entire business environment.
2. PERSONALITY
Personality is the own image factors affecting behaviors on thinking and feeling. The
personality encompasses all the behaviors, which are constantly under the influence of
internal and external stimuli of the individual constituting psychological, biological, genetic
properties and all the abilities acquired, motives, emotions, desires, habits. (Tınar, 1999:93).
However, people built distinctive form of a relation with other members which can be
defined as a consistent and structured in internal and external environment (Cüceoğlu, 1997:
404).
Personality is the complex of the ensemble of a number of features. But all this came
together and combined with an individual on the basis of features, mainly the issues related to
the three main divisions. Generally, a double function, which may be associated with one of
three slice. In fact, in this issue it is not possible to make a distinction in the form of clear and
precise lines. This is an abstraction and generalizations to better understand the formation of
personality. By such an approach, the concept consists of three slices. These are the character,
temperament and talent. Interpersonal differences, differences in the relationship of these
features will lead to differences or features (Erdogan, 1994: 244-245).
Character: Personality and the concept "character" is the most frequently used in the same
sense, Character, refers to the social and moral property of personality. Character, is like a
skeleton of personality. The concept of the character is closely related to social values and
moral rules with its environment (Zel, 2001: 27).
Temperament: The second aspect of personality is mood. In fact, character significantly
depends on temperament (temperament). Temperament is a significant aspect of continuous
and cyclical. The behavior is seen as the evolution of social, moral aspects, temperament,
48
which is the continuous part of these aspects. The hereditary aspect of the property show
individual attitudes, which should be considered as the propert of person.
Talent: is the most important skill constituting the third slices of personality. Talent, owned
by an individual refers to the entire mental and physical abilities. It is all of the form of
features to analyze, realize outcome and perform some of the facts, such as the totality of
mental properties.
2.1. Personality Type A and B
The stress was firstly revealed by two cardiologists Friedman and Rosenman in the late
1960s. It is perceived to be the concept of "type A" and "type B" personality styles that has
today wide acceptance (Luthans, 1995:406). Personality type has been closely associated
with daily lives of individuals and at the levels of exposured stress. According to the findings
on this subject, type A has higher heart disorders probability then type B. (Vecchio, 1995:
498).
In addition, in middle and lower echelons of organizations type A personality were more
successful than individuals, but B personality individuals are more successful than A toplevel, since they are patient and detailed thought. In this case, it is possible to say that might
be more successful by making shifts individuals with Type A and type B in accordance with
the requirements of time and environment,. However, it should be known that the probability
of achieving seems within the individuals (Luthans, 1995: 407).
Behaviors of type A are aggressive, impatient and very much intended. They want to be
more successful as quickly as possible. Lively, energetic feel, and hold themselves do not
tolerate. With the behavior of type B is the individual, on the contrary less competitive, less
devoted to work and less susceptible to time. Such people are in less conflict with time and
more balanced to life and has very comfortable. Running in a stable speed and feel more
confidence in himself. It can not be said A type more or less successful than B type person. In
addition, Friedman and Rosenman said that there was no pure people as type A or type B,
instead, it might have expressed more inclined to one of two types. For example, one often
exhibits a type A personality traits, but can be a calm and quiet for a short time, in some cases
he can even forget the time (Moorhead and Griffin, 1992: 463).
Personality type of discovered by researchers has been associated closely with eachother
at both levels of exposure to stress in their daily lives of individuals. Following lists is the
"Feel and the complex motion referred to as the properties of persons " type A and B by
Rosenman Friedman and (Luthans, 1995: 304):
Tablo 1: A and Type B Personality Traits
Type A Personality Traits
Type B Personality Traits
They are in action every time.
They are interested in time
Quick walk.
Patient
Quick eat.
Do not like to brag.
49
Quick walk.
Do for fun, not to win games and sports.
Impatient.
Inside of a comfortable way to rest.
Do two things at a time.
Are not under the pressure of finishing the job
immediately
There is no free time.
They are earnest persons.
The numbers are against the obsessions.
Never do not rush
Numbers tend to measure success
Aggressive.
Competitive.
Are under continuous pressure of time
3. DEPRESSION
Depression is a feeling of deep gloom, in a state of thought, speech and motion slowdown,
recession, worthlessness, smallness, weakness, reluctance, thoughts and feelings of
pessimism is a syndrome with symptoms such as slowing down the physiological functions
(Öztürk, 1985). For example, fail in get a job, fall in entered an exam, losing-close relatives
cause emotionally depression in situations. State of emotional distress can be short put,
sometimes days, it can also take weeks or even months. Here are some of the features in
humans depression (South, 2009: 307-308):






oneself to feel worthless and inadequate,
to lose the joy of life,
self-constantly feeling tired,
to look at people and events pessimistically,
the person's continuous speech,
to complain constantly.
The outer appearance of the person who is neurotic depression, usually depressed, sad and
hopeless. There is a fake-view of depressive person with grotesqueness or expression-less
face. Each event is seen from the pessimistic direction, he has no interested in any activity
giving pleasure, may not be alone, can sit for hours by staring. He can complain of
difficulties living in low concentrating. Sleep disturbances, restlessness, can cause symptoms
such as irritability and internal tension (Kutash, 1965: 967).
According to the theory developed by Beck and his colleagues, depression is not mainly
disorder of feeling it is a cognitive disorder. Three important cognitive disorders are refered
to the formation of depression (Beck, 1979):
Person's self negative view: Depressive people feel algae itself, incomplete, defeated, serves
as worthless and inadequate. Believes, and sees itself being no-loved rejects himself due to
omissions.
50
Negative overview to experiences: Depressed people interpret it as an indication of the lack
of environment interaction.
Negative look to the future: People desperate future, in the dark, deprived and feels
frustrated.
Personality traits may be a risk factor for depression. Difficulty in coping with stress and
interpersonal relationships throughout the life of an individual creates a neurotic, dependent,
obsessive, introverted, low self-esteem, non-aggressive, anxious, pessimistic personality
traits, which are reported to be developing things more on the depression (Unal, 2000).
4. METHOD
4.1. Population and Sampling
The study population were consisted of students in the Akdeniz University. The sampling
was done from the last grade students attending School of Social Sciences in Akdeniz
University. Students was chosen from ones since students had spent more time. They could
also better evaluate the school and their spiritual status behavior containing the mobbing. A
total of 300 questionnaires were distributed to students, and of 300 questionnaire 271 could
be received and was statistically evaluated by 90.3% ratio as re-cycle.
4.2. Data Collection Tool
Personal Information Form. In this form, questions are asked in order to obtain information
the participants age, gender, reading program, income level, family, school and
accomodation. Furthermore, questions were asked as "had they the opportunity what would
be their choice?" to the students and to choose between two options was requested. The
answers were evaluated to be "choice opportunity" score to these questions.
Mobbing Survey In the first running of questionnaire 45 questions covering the
"psychological intimidation Leymann (LIPT) Scale" developed by the first researcher
Leymann (1996) and 14 questions of Rakness Einarsen (1997) on mobbing and appropriate
40 questions of "Negative Behavior (NAQ) Scale" developed by Denise Salin (Salin, 2001)
were used. These issues in the form of judgments took place in survey and answering were
asked as the one mark of the options related to himself ¨to be "always", "often", "sometimes",
"rarely" and "never". "5-point Likert Scale " was used to be scaling method of basic research.
Personality Questionnaire Personality type, is a modified version of the Jenkins activity
survey (Jetkins, Ayzanski and Rosenman, 1971). In this study, to identify the personality on
the structure of A and B, personality scale of Durna were used (Durna, 2004). 20 items were
considered (Moorhead and Griffin, 1992: 465; Baltaş and Baltaş: 2000: 148-150) to be the
personal characteristics of a scale containing. habits, attitudes towards time under various
conditions, environment, relationships, thoughts and feelings about.
These issues in the form of judgments took place in survey and answering were asked as
the one mark of the options related to himself ¨to be "always", "often", "sometimes", "rarely"
and "never". "5-point Likert Scale " was used to be scaling method of basic research.
51
Analysis of Mental Status Questionnaire. Beck Depression Index (BDI) developed in order to
measure emotional, cognitive, somatic, and motivational components by a self-report scale
(Beck, 1961). BDI is one of the most frequently tools used giving information about himself
on research and clinics. Although the main objective is to evaluate the symptoms of
depression in a comprehensive way it is allow the assessment of cognitive content. The scale
is composed of 21 items, two items on emotions, eleven items on cognitions, two-material
behavior, five-item on physical symptoms, an item is divided to the symptoms within
persons. A questionnaire consisting of 21 questions were used in the evaluation of BDI. Each
item is composed of four head.
4.3. Data Analysis
For the purpose of the study, independent sample t test (Independent Samples T-Test) and
one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used. In making binary comparisons, Scheffe
cases in homogeneity of variance; Tamhane test was used in cases not provided. The data was
analyzed using SPSS 17.0 sofware by 0.05%. 0.05-0.01 levels of significance were
considered during investigation.
5. RESULTS AND COMMENTS
5.1. Demographic Properties
Demographic findings on individuals included in the study are given in Table 1.
Table 1: Demographic Characteristics of Participants
Variable
Gender
Age
Programme
Income level
52
N
%
Female
142
52,4
Male
128
47,2
Total
270
99,6
18-19
70
25,8
20-21
135
49,8
22 and above
64
23,6
Total
269
99,3
Education in the Daytime
143
52,8
Education in the Evening
128
47,2
Total
271
100
Low
54
19,9
Medium
193
71,2
Family's
residence
place
Staying with family
Choose a school
High
23
8,5
Total
270
99,6
of Village
44
16,2
County
32
11,8
City
195
72,0
Total
271
100
Yes
138
50,9
No
132
48,7
Total
270
99,6
1-4
183
67,5
5-8
35
12,9
9-12
37
13,7
13 and above
16
5,9
Total
271
100
105
38,7
166
61,3
271
100
What would be your Same school
choice
if
the
Different school
opportunity
Total
In examining the demographic characteristics of respondents, 52.4% of respondents
indicating gender females, 47.2% percent is composed of males. 25.8% of the participants
examined the age groups' range as 18-19 ages, 20-21 ages by 49.8% and the age above of 22
by 23.6%. 52.8% of the participants are attending day-school, 47.2% percent are in the night academic programs. In terms of income levels, 19.9% of respondents were reported to be
low, 72.2% percent moderate and 8.5% is seen to have high levels of income. Participants'
families, 16.2% percent in the villages, and 11.8% lived in towns by 72% in cities of the
respondents live together with their families by 50.9% and 48.7% lives in an environment
separated from their families. The participants prefers are examined in view of attending
school as a choice, 67.5% percent of those who chose the first of four preference, 12.9%
percent of those who chose between the fifth and the eighth choice, those who choose
between nine and twelve chosen by 13.7%, and 5.9% is between 13 and further chooser.
Participants had the opportunity to make a choice again, 38.7% was stated to "would choose
the same school", and 61,3% had "would choose another school,".
53
5.2. Results on gender differentiation
Table 2: The Independent Samples T Test Results of The Students Regarding Their
Personality, Depression and Perception of Mobbing According to Gender Variable
Level
N
Mean
Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean df
Personality Female 132 61,9167 10,22274
Male
Mobbing
,88978
127 63,8976 9,12943
P
257
-1.643
,102
263
-4,198
,000**
259
-,864
,388
,81011
Female 140 50,1786 12,93162
1,09292
Male
2,66260
125 61,8000 29,76873
Depression Female 134 30,3209 8,26588
Male
t
,71406
127 31,2520 9,13563
,81066
**. The mean difference is significant at the 0.01 level.
When the Table 2 is examined, a significant difference is not found between personality and
depression according to gender variable. On the other hand, perception of male students on
mobbing are higher than female students at 0.01 significant level.
5.3. Results on differentiation by age
Table 3: ANOVA Analysis on Personality, Depression and Perception of Mobbing in terms
of Age.
Sum
Squares
Age
Personality Between Groups 361,885
Mobbing
df
Mean Square
F
Sig.
2
180,943
1,913
,150
94,588
,391
,677
,061
,941
Within Groups
24119,882
255
Total
24481,767
257
Between Groups 423,625
2
211,813
Within Groups
141383,068
261
541,698
Total
141806,693
263
Depression Between Groups 9,349
Within Groups
54
of
19579,155
2
4,674
257
76,183
Sum
Squares
Age
of
Personality Between Groups 361,885
Mobbing
df
Mean Square
F
Sig.
2
180,943
1,913
,150
94,588
,391
,677
,061
,941
Within Groups
24119,882
255
Total
24481,767
257
Between Groups 423,625
2
211,813
Within Groups
141383,068
261
541,698
Total
141806,693
263
Depression Between Groups 9,349
2
4,674
76,183
Within Groups
19579,155
257
Total
19588,504
259
When the Table 3 is examined, a significant difference is not found between depression,
personality and mobbing according to age variable of the students in ANOVA analysis.
5.4. Findings related to differentiation by program category
Table 4: The Independent Samples T Test Results of The Students Regarding Their Personality,
Depression and Perception of Mobbing According to Program Category Variable
Level
Personality
Mobbing
Depression
N
Mean
Std. Deviation
Std. Error Mean
Daytime
137
61,7372
9.63547
0.82321
Evening
123
64,0407
9.80415
0.88401
Daytime
139
54,2518
22.85274
1.93834
Evening
127
57,2677
23.47658
2.08320
Daytime
135
30,1630
8.65957
0.74530
Evening
127
31,4803
8.70582
0.77252
df
t
P
258
-1,909
,057*
264
-1,061
,290
260
-1,227
,221
*. The mean difference is significant at the 0.05 level.
When the Table 4 is examined, a significant difference is not found between mobbing and
depression according to program category variable. On the other hand, perception of evening
program students on personality are slightly higher than daytime program students at 0.05
55
significant level. Accordingly, the evening education students can be said to be prone to Type
A students of daytime education can be said to be prone to Type B personality traits.
5.5. Implications for differentiation according to the category of income Level
Table 5: ANOVA Analysis on Personality, Depression and Perception of Mobbing in terms of
Family Income.
Income
N
Personality
Low
52
64,6731
184
62,4076
High
23
Total
Low
Deviation
Squares
10,12611 B. Groups
Mean
df
Square
2
129.506
9,61227 W. Groups
24207.089
256
94.559
61,3478
9,69821 Total
24466.100
258
259
62,7683
9,73806
54
61,4074
27,20399 B. Groups
6312.071
2
3156.036
188
52,7074
17,27366 W. Groups
135784.555
262
518.262
High
23
66,8696
43,04575 Total
142096.626
264
Total
265
55,7094
23,20010
Low
54
34,5185
10,54504 B. Groups
957.217
2
478.608
184
29,7500
7,70866 W. Groups
18715.895
258
72.542
High
23
30,2174
9,40965 Total
19673.111
260
Total
261
30,7778
8,69861
Middle
Depression
Sum of
259.011
Middle
Mobbing
Mean
Std.
Middle
F
P
1,370
,256
6,090
,003**
6,598
,002**
When the Table 5 is examined, there is no differences between the income levels of students
and perceptions of the personality. A significant difference were observed between
perceptions of depression and mobbing at the 0.01 level. High income group to the students'
exposure to mobbing rate is higher than others. Depression levels of low-income group are
higher than other income groups of students.
56
5.6. Findings about where her family lives differentiation by category
Table 6: ANOVA Analysis on Personality, Depression and Perception of Mobbing in terms of
Family’s Place of Residence.
Family's place of
residence
Personality
Mobbing
Depression
N
Mean
Std.
Sum of
Deviation
Squares
Village
42
63.5000
9.83337 B. Groups
County
32
64.4063
City
186
Total
Mean
df
Square
132.235
2
66,117
8.59429 W. Groups
24564.977
257
95,584
62.4032
9.94872 Total
24697.212
259
260
62.8269
9.76504
Village
44
65,5227
29.93286 B. Groups
5143.399
2
2571.699
County
30
52,5667
15.15138 W. Groups
136975.323
263
520.819
City
192
53,9271
21.92216 Total
142118.722
265
Total
266
55,6917
23.15809
Village
41
33,7073
11.44387 B. Groups
444.633
2
222,316
County
32
31,2188
8.48427 W. Groups
19267.047
259
74,390
City
189
30,1005
7.92152 Total
19711.679
261
Total
262
30,8015
8.69044
F
P
,692
,502
4,938
,008**
2,989
,052*
*. The mean difference is significant at the 0.05 level.
When the Table 6 is examined, there is no differences between family’s place of residence
and perceptions of the personality. A significant difference is observed between perceptions
of mobbing at the 0.01 level and a partial difference is observed in the perceptions of
depression at 0.05 level. Rural origin students' perceptions of mobbing were higher than other
students. However, students’ with rural origin perceptions of depression were slightly higher
that of the other students.
5.7. Implications for School Choice Opportunity differentiation by category
Table 7: ANOVA Analysis on Personality, Depression and Perception of Mobbing in terms of the
Opportunity to Choose.
57
your choice if the
opportunity
N
Mean
Personality
1,00
103
63,1359
9,77296
,96296
2,00
157
62,6242
9,78579
,78099
1,00
103
54,8835
21,06773
2,07586
2,00
163
56,2025
24,43640
1,91401
1,00
104
30,0288
8,11741
,79598
2,00
158
31,3101
9,03701
,71895
Mobbing
Depresyon
Std.
Std. Error
Deviation
Mean
df
t
P
258
,413
,680
264
-,452
,652
260
-1,168
,244
6. CONCLUSION
School life, constitutes an environment in which students spend a large portion of their
days. The Students who have different ideas, expectations, experiences, personalities, lives
and the life plans come together in the school life. Despite these differences, unintended
consequences can occur within these persons who have to do training together. Students can
exhibit undesirable behavior against student friends due to the problems living in private
lives, targets they want to reach.
Due to differences in behavior lasting persistent and long period may cause psychological
intimidation and mobbing. For this reason, students are exposed to many adverse conditions
and behaviors under intense stress experienced in the school environment. This behavior
causes being unhappy of students exposed to mobbing, which leads to both psychologically
and physically disorder.
At the end of this study it has been understood that many students against negative
behavior exhibit different responses by the effect of personality traits. According to results of
study, type A personality characteristics which have higher prone to perceptions of mobbing
than students prone to personality related to type B.
Perceptions of mobbing of the students came from rural areas with low-income are higher
than city dwellers students with normal or high income levels. However, it was observed that
male students were exposed to mobbing more than female students.
As a result, school boards should support the students on how begining and continue of
mobbing process can be prevented. Psychological resistance, searching of possessed rights,
perceived social support and measurements to copy with stress and awareness should be
raised by education programs.
58
REFFERENCES
_____________ (1998). When Working Becomes Hazardous. World of Work The Magazine
of the International Labor Organizations (ILO), 26: 6-9.
Beck, A. T., Rush, A. J., Shaw, B. F., &
Depression, New York, Guilford.
Emery, G. (1979). Cognitive Therapy of
Cüceloğlu, D. (1997). İnsan ve Davranışı: Psikolojinin Temel Kuramları. Remzi Kitapevi,
İstanbul.
Erdoğan, İ. (1994). İşletmelerde Davranış. Beta Basım Yayım, İstanbul.
Güney, S. (2009). Davranış Bilimleri. Nobel Yayınevi, Ankara.
Huber, B. (1994). Mobbing: Psychoterror am Arbeitsplatz, Niedernhausen, Falken.
Karavardar, G. (2009). İş Yaşamında Psikolojik Yıldırma ve Psikolojik Yıldırmaya Direnç
Gösteren Kişilik Özellikleri ile İlişkisi. Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi. İstanbul Üniversitesi
Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
Kutash, S. B. (1965).
Psychology, 12: 71-78.
Psychoneuroses. In B. B. Wolman (Ed.), Handbook of Clinical
Lewis, J., Coursol, D. & Wahl, K. H. (2002). Addressing Issues of Workplace Harassment:
Counseling The Targets. Journal of Employment Counseling, 39: 109–116.
Leymann, H. (1996). The Content and Development of Mobbing at Work. European Journal
of Work and Organizational Psychology, 5(2): 165-184.
Luthans, F. (1995). Organizational Behavior. Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul
Moorhead, G. & Griffin, R. W. (1992). Organizational Behavior. Houghton Mifflin
Company, Boston.
Öztürk, M.O. (1985). Psikanaliz ve Psikoterapi. Sevinç Matbaası, Ankara.
Tınar, M. Y. (1999). Çalışma Yasamı ve Kişilik. Mercek Dergisi, MESS, 14.
Tınaz, P. (2008). İşyerinde Psikolojik Taciz. Beta Yayıncılık, 2.Baskı, İstanbul.
Tınaz,P., Bayram, F. & Ergin,H. (2008). Çalışma Psikolojisi ve Hukuki Boyutlarıyla
İşyerinde Psikoljik Taciz (Mobbing), Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul.
Ünal, Y. (2000). Depresyon ve Kişilik. Duygudurum Bozuklukları Dizisi, 1(2): 72-76.
Vecchio, R.P. (1995). Organizatioanl Behavior, Fort Worth: Dryden Press, England.
Zel, U. (2001). Kişilik ve Liderlik: Evrensel Boyutlarıyla Yönetsel Açıdan Araştırmalar,
Teoriler ve Yorumlar. Seçkin Yayıncılık, Ankara.
59
Technologies Aiming To Improve Work Efficiency And Sustainability: Personnel
Tracking Systems
Halil Kaygisiz1, Abdülkadir Çakir1, Seyit Akpancar, Eyüp Çaki1
1Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
2Rize University, Rize, Turkey
E-mails: [email protected], [email protected],
[email protected],[email protected]
Abstract
In this study, by dealing with personnel tracking systems used in business sector, it is
examined their effects on business productivity and sustainability of these effects. Personnel
tracking systems are computer-based electronic systems which enable to record business
entry and exit times and preparation of the daily and monthly reports. It is aimed to increase
business efficiency by ensuring the continuation and sustainability of personnel.
Personnel tracking systems, according to application of RFID (Radio Frequency
Identification), are performed by using biometric and barcode technologies. RFID can work
contactless different from biometric and barcode technologies. RFID is the most common
technology used in Personnel tracking systems because of this advantage.
It is thought that staff awareness will increase on the use of tracking systems in the workplace
with this study discussed the sustainability and dealing with the benefits of the Personnel
tracking systems enabling the detection of workplace entry and exit times of workers.
Keywords: Radio Frequency Identification, Personnel Tracking Systems, Sustainability,
Business Efficiency, Identification Technologies
1. INTRODUCTION
It needs to ensure the control of employees in order to work much more quickly and
efficiently in companies that have many employees. In workplaces, in order to increase the
productivity of personnel and maintain control of the personnel can be achieved by using
tracking systems. Personnel tracking systems: having software and hardware equipments and
developed for monitoring and control of factory staff, are a control mechanism that follows
the monthly fees, all working hours and overtime of staff. With this system, business
enterprises are able to follow, without any fault and forgetting, that staff work how many
days and hours of within a specified period; lost time such as permit, late coming, early going
and
60
no-coming. Personnel tracking systems are the contemporary systems of the key productivity.
Personnel tracking systems provide to obtain mainly scoring payroll, and a wide variety of
reports related to continuity of control.
2. PERSONNEL TRACKING SYSTEMS
Personnel tracking systems are the systems which provide monitoring work, overtime,
absenteeism, leave, rest periods and the calculation, employees in the workplace is a
workplace inputs / outputs to be authorized. Employers with these systems are intended to
provide the most efficient use of the total workforce.
Thanks to personnel tracking systems, caused by human factor errors are minimized during
the preparation of payroll. In addition, these obtained reports help the top management of
enterprises by lighting the way to get more reliable decisions for the future.
Personnel tracking systems, enterprises that perform calculations by hand due to lost time and
human error factor in the prevention of the damage caused to the economies provided by
businesses, such as follow-up of operational staff brings discipline and modernity. The
business which is able to control the personnel costs of staff and working hours control, can
also capture the chances of becoming more effective in highly competitive markets
(Buyurgan, N. at al., 2009).
Firstly, the follow-up of personnel has been followed up with procedure of the signature. It
has not found safe by business since staff write working hours themselves. In order to ensure
the safety, it needed manpower, that is, an additional staff to control. In order to confirm the
correctness of the staff working hours used card instead of staff constitutes the beginnings of
personnel tracking systems. Punch clocks, has been followed up by giving each individual
named and anonymous tally cards.
After scoring cards, with the systems of barcode cards, personnel tracking have been done.
By developing personnel tracking systems, proximity systems have been used. It has began to
establish a remote connection with the development of devices connected TCP / IP protocol.
With recent technological advances, a lot of systems have become used for personnel
tracking (Pala, Z., 2007).
3. TECHNOLOGIES USED PERSONNEL TRACKING SYSTEMS
In personnel tracking systems, many automatic identification systems are used. The process
of identification automatically makes life easy and most systems are designed for it. Each of
these systems used a different technology, have different characteristics (Pala, Z., 2007).
In personnel tracking systems, automatic identification systems can be grouped mainly in 5
groups (Fig. 1):
61
1. OCR: Optical Character Recognition Systems
2. Biometric Identification System (Face Recognition, Fingerprint recognition ... etc.).
3. Barcode Systems
4. Smart Card Systems
5. RFID: Identification with Radio Frequency
Figure 1. Automatic identification systems (AUTO-ID)
3.1. OPTICAL CHARACTER RECOGNITION SYSTEM (OCR)
Optical character recognition systems (OCR), provides an understanding of different fonts are
read by machines. In scanners, to scan text and images, these systems are used. However,
because the system is expensive, the field of using remains in a narrow frame. There are
personnel tracking systems based on identification of signatures that are taken in entry and
exit of staff.
3.2. BIOMETRIC RECOGNITION SYSTEMS
Biometrics, on the basis of assets can be defined as the science of measuring and counting.
Biometrics, developed to determine the user's identity by recognizing the physical and
behavioral characteristics of a computer-controlled, is a general term used for automated
systems. Therefore, there are not any problems such as forgotten or stolen in the loss of the
card or encrypted systems.
Biometric systems aim to provide access controlled passage of individuals, that is, it is
allowed for authorized persons it is denied to access the passage / the transition to
unauthorized persons (Tuğaç, B., 2007).
62
Types of biometric recognition system used in personnel tracking systems:
• Face Recognition System
• Fingerprint Recognition
• Voice Recognition
• Iris Recognition
• Retina Recognition
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Figure 2. Biometric Recognition Systems a)Face recognition device
recognition device c)Voice recognition device d)Iris recognition device
b)Fingerprint
3.2.1. FACE RECOGNITION SYSTEMS
Facial recognition systems work on the basis of comparison by computer-aided that already
committed to the database face images with an unknown face. These systems are used to
select individuals within the access control or crowd (Fig. 2a). The main problem in facial
recognition systems, with low quality pictures can cause problems in the comparison whom
wearing glasses, etc. accessories (Dağoğlu, M., 2006).
3.2.2. FINGERPRINT RECOGNITION SYSTEMS
The fingerprint is unique and does not change according to age or other characteristics. Every
person has different fingerprints Therefore; fingerprint is one of the most reliable means of
personal authentication (Fig. 2b). The fingerprint is a fingerprint recognition algorithm for
each of the received image is different and unique feature of fingerprint ID code by creating a
customized database extracts and saves. Each fingerprint code at the base of data is different
for each person (Jain, A. K. ve Ross, A., 2004).
3.2.3. IRIS RECOGNITION SYSTEMS
Iris recognition does not require close contact between the user and the reader and is an
useful biometrics technology. The basic idea in iris recognition technologies is to perform on
63
layer of the iris of the eye by taking the picture (Fig. 2c). This image taken from a database
with a person's iris removed and processed in accordance with the characteristic values. Then
this characteristic in the database is used to the aim of comparing (Jain, A. K. ve Ross, A.,
2003).
3.2.4. VOICE RECOGNITION SYSTEMS
Sound biometry, emerged, determining changes over time in the sound frequency, is a system
used to identify the person (Fig. 2d).
The advantage of audio systems is the use of hands and eyes freely, but as in the case of the
excitement, fear and chills, changes in sound volume, speed and quality, make identifying
difficult. In today's technology, voice recognition tools with recorded sound are also possible
deceiving. Therefore, application of this technique is not safe (Dağoğlu, M., 2006).
3.2.5. RETINA RECOGNITION SYSTEMS
Based on the principle scanning the retina by the unique structure of the optical systems is
high reliability of this technology but it is difficult to use, since the user must look at a certain
point. Although technology is adequate, it has not been accepted for this reason (Tuğaç, B.,
2007).
3.3. BARCODE RECOGNITION SYSTEMS
Today, Barcodes are ones of used in many areas and at least one cost-effective automatic
recognition systems.
Nowadays, the generally rectangular, the thickness of the thin lines are drawn parallel to each
other and it is a symbol created by the black bars occurring in the gaps between the lines
(Dağoğlu, M., 2006).
3.4. SMART CARD SYSTEMS
Smart cards are called “smart cards” including plastic cards into the “chips”
(microprocessor). This is known as the main reason for smart cards, high information
transport, processing, using data on the card, write and delete capabilities 'microprocessor' is
carried out through.
The applications of smart card technology opened new fields of application faster than
before, magnetic media, such as to render safe and low cost, which cannot be possible so far
(Jain, A. K. ve Ross, A., 2004).
64
3.5. RFID
RFID systems have similarities with smartcard systems. The main differences are adjacent to
smart cards; data is exchanged between the data carrier device and the reader using radio
waves rather than being used with the contact surface offers considerable (Kılınç, T., 2007).
Without human impact/contribution on the RFID system design are motivated to collect
creation of information. It is a newer technology according to barcode technology and a
system having advantages. The use around the world has been increasing year by year (Altun
Z., 2010).
The main advantage of RFID technology systems is characteristic of functioning that does
not require contact with the vision and the line Labels, snow, ice, fog, paint, dirt, inside the
box, and a warehouse-like vehicle can also be read visually and environmentally challenging
conditions. RFID reader with a short response time of 100ms and a lot (several hundred), the
label can be read almost simultaneously. With labels combined with sensors can be obtained
very important information about the status of the product. In RFID technology, it is much
more secure about security on the magnetic cards since the data can be conveyed by being
encrypted thanks to many other features. In addition, not needing physical contact enables
ease of use. For example, with RFID technology credentials can be read in your wallet
(Ismael, N.M., 2010).
4. SUMMARY and CONCLUSION
In this study, it is researched the technologies to improve business efficiency and
sustainability in their workplace in order to ensure that research on tracking systems used by
staff researched used. In addition to increasing the efficiency of business today has great
significance in maintaining the Auto-ID systems, personnel tracking systems with optical
character recognition systems, biometric identification systems, barcode systems, smart card
systems and radio frequency identification system is used. Control technology with the
development of more secure systems can be done by employees in the workplace. Although
Employee tracking systems improve business efficiency, there are lacks in terms of data
security. With the development of future systems more reliable and stable in the workplace
will be provided the maximum level of receiving and maintaining productivity.
REFERENCES
Altun Z. (2010) RFID Okuyucunun Geliştirilmesi. Sakarya University, Ph.D. thesis, 108p,
Sakarya.
Buyurgan, N., Hardgrave, B.C., Baylor, J.L. and Walker, R.T. (2009) RFID in healthcare: a
framework for uses and opportunities, International Journal of Advanced Pervasive and
Ubiquitous Computing, Vol. 1 No. 1, pp. 1-25.
65
Dağoğlu, M. (2006) Radyo Frekans Tanımlama Sistem Tasarımı ve Üretimi, Hacettepe
University, Ph.D. thesis, Ankara.
Ismael, N.M. (2010) Radyo Frekans Kimlik Tanımı (RFID), Selçuk University, Ph.D. thesis,
104p, Konya.
Jain, A. K., Ross, A. (2004) Mutlibiometric Systems, Communications of the ACM, Vol. 74,
pp. 34-40.
Jain, A. K., Ross, A. (2003) Information fusion in biometrics., Pattern Recognition Letters,
Vol. 24, pp. 2115-2125.
Kılınç, T. (2007) RFID Sistemlerin İncelenmesi ve Sağlık Sektöründe Kullanılması, Maltepe
University, Ph.D. thesis, İstanbul.
Pala, Z. (2007) RFID Teknolojisi İle Otomasyon Bir Uygulama Olarak: Otopark Takibi,
Yüzüncü Yıl University, Ph.D. thesis, Van.
Tugaç, B. (2007) Radyo frekans ile kimlik tanıma, Yıldız Teknik University, Ph.D. thesis,
İstanbul.
66
Socıal Anxıety And Usage Of Onlıne Technologıcal Communıcatıon Tools Among
Adolescents
Bilal Sisman1 ,Sinan Yoruk2, Ali Eleren1
1Economics and Administrative Science Faculty, Department of Administrative
Afyon Kocatepe University, Turkey
2Education Faculty, Department of Education Science
Afyon Kocatepe University, Turkey
E-mails: [email protected], [email protected],[email protected]
Abstract
With the growing popularity of Internet communication applications among adolescents, the
Internet, online social sites, instant messaging and cell phones have become an important
social tool for their development. For adolescents who perceive low friendship quality,
Internet use for communication purposes predicted less depression, whereas Internet use for
non-communication purposes predicted more depression and more social anxiety. This study
examined teens’ use of social interactive technologies and the role that social anxiety plays
on how adolescents communicate with others (technology or face-to-face). The questionnaire
was prepared to apply in Afyonkarahisar, Manisa and Uşak cities in order to measure any
relationship between social anxiety and choise of communication options among adolescents.
Questionnaire datas were gathered from High School adolescents (ranged from 15-18;
freshman, sophomore, junior and senior) included 544. Adolescents almost don’t use
messanger sites and mail address. They generally use instant message with their cell phones.
They spend 1-2 hours for a day by listening music and avarage 30 minutes during the day by
using Facebook. More than half of teens have cell phones that able to call, message and
access to Internet. The findings of the current study found that females are using text
messaging more than males. However, males are playing games for a long time than females.
In addition, females are feeling more uncomfortable talking with others face-to-face than
males. And, females also prefer talking with some on computer instead of talking face-to-face
than males. Similarly, females prefer making new friends with someone on computer more
than males.
Keywords: Social Anxiety, Communication Tools, Technology, Adolescents
1.INTRODUCTION
The use of socially interactive technologies, such as online social sites, text messaging or
instant messaging is rising among young people (Pierce, 2009). Among adolescents, the
Internet has become indispensable for instrumental purposes such as school work information
gathering as well as for communication purposes. The communication applications of the
Internet, such as e-mail, instant messaging (IM), blogs and chat rooms have entrenched
67
themselves in the lives of adolescents and the Internet has become an important social context
in the lives of adolescents today. In fact, a national survey of adolescents (10-17 years of age)
revealed that in the year before they were surveyed 25% of Internet users had formed casual
online friendships (Wolak et al., 2002; Subrahmanyam and Lin, 2007).
Instant messaging is also an increasingly popular form of communication. A study by the
Pew Internet and American Life Project found that 53 million Americans use IM, and 36% of
these users reported using IM on a daily basis (Shiu and Lenhart, 2004). IM is a textbased
form of communication in which two or more people exchange text messages in realtime
using the Internet (Lenhart, 2005).
Some researches suggest that socially interacitve technologies allow users to avoid or replace
face-to-face communication (Nie and Erbring, 2000). If the person is shy (socially anxious)
and feels uncomfortable withy face-to-face interactions, these technologies may serve as a
useful tool for avoiding such unpleasant situations and therefore may replace face-to-face
communication (Pierce, 2009).
US, Canadian and Dutch studies have shown that the vast majority of adolescents spends
several hours daily online. Further surveys show that adolescents consider the Internet a
highly important medium in their everyday social life and use it to form and maintain social
relationships (Selfhout et al., 2009).
Social anxiety, social fobia and shyness are features that seen every individuals of all ages.
Both adolescents and adults who have social anxiety against life and their environment scope,
has led to more research on them. This study is related on teens that high school level about
15-18. The reason selecting this age range takes plece the beginning of puberty and the end of
puberty. Because, puberty is a vital phase for growing of young people and determine their
personalities. The study is not only for Afyonkarahisar teens but also Uşak and Kütahya
provinces are included. The purpose of this study is to research adolescents’ use of online
sites, computers, text messaging, cell phones and instant messaging related to social anxiety
effectives technological tools versus face-to-face communication. Because, especially 15-20
years-old-teens have been noticed to use on-line communication means having faster and
interactive features rather than having face-to-face communication while talking to their
friends or their parents. Consequently, in this study, whether the reason for this choice has a
connection with social anxiety or gender will be researched.
1.1.Internet Use Among Teens
Usage of the Internet continues to increase worldwide. Colley and Maltby (2008) indicated
that, in the UK 57% of households now have access, in comparison to 46% four years ago
(National Statistics, 2006). The Digital Future Project in the US has found that 78.6% of
Americans went online in 2005, with an accompanying increase in the amount of time spent
per week on the Internet (Centre for the Digital Future, 2005 ).
Many of the studies in this area have been conducted with university students, in part because
of their widespread use of the Internet as a social tool; indeed such use among students is
increasing. In addition, a number of studies have found a high prevalence of social anxiety
among university students who may then turn to the Internet as a way of regulating,
challenging or escaping their social fears (Shepherd and Edelmann, 2005). Many university
students commenting that thety are shy in social stuations, but are more open, easy going on
68
the net, in chat rooms. They are shy about approaching people at a party or in large group, for
example, but not about talking to people in chat rooms.
1.2. Cell Phone Use Among Adolescents
Auter (2007) researched thatsome of them related to adolescents and young adults use the cell
phone differently than their parents and other older users. They prefer to consider it their
primary phone – in lieu of the traditional landline phone – for its. Some studies have found
little or no difference in use based on gender (e.g., DeBaillon, 2003; DeBaillon and
Rockwell, 2005). Other studies have found, however that boys tend to be more intrigued with
technical aspects of the devices, while girls tend to prefer the interpersonal connectivity – and
spend more time using their phones for voice calls (Henderson et al., 2002; Rakow and
Navarro, 1993; Skog, 2002). In fact, while women in one study felt the phones resulted in
more freedom, male teens found the additional connectivity a constraining inconvenience
(Auter, 2007).
A recent Pew Internet research study found that approximately 33% of teens have a cell
phone. Of the 33% of teens who reported owning a cell phone, approximately 64% said they
had sent text messages. In addition, the Pew study found that of the young cell phone users,
teenage girls tended to use text messaging much more than their male counterparts. Older
teens (17 year olds) also reported sending more text messages on average than younger teens.
Although cell phone use and text messaging have risen among U.S. teens, their popularity
remains considerably less than European teens (Lenhart et al., 2005; Pierce, 2009).
Seventy-five percent of teenagers now own cell phones, and 25% use them for social media,
54% use them for texting, and 24% use them for instant messaging. Thus, a large part of this
generation’s social and emotional development is occurring while on the Internet and on cell
phones (Hinduja and Patchin, 2007).
2. SOCIAL ANXIETY
Social anxiety has variously been referred to as both shyness and social phobia. Social
phobia, (also known as social anxiety disorder) is at the more extreme end of the continuum
of social anxiety and “includes a collation of symptoms which unlike shyness can vary in
severity throughout one’s life” these symptoms are only elicited in certain social situations
(Leary, 1983). In contrast shyness while at the less severe en of the social anxiety continuum
is more likely to be a life long charecteristic of an individual’s temperament which is
experienced in every social occurences (Lecrubier et al., 2000; Shepherd and Edelmann,
2005).
Individuals are often motivated by a need to feel a sense of belonging, however, those with
social anxiety may find it difficult to fulfill this social need because of the Internet. For
socially anxious individuals, the Internet and socially interactive technologies (text
messaging) can have both positive and negative results. Kraut et al (1998) found that online
interaction greatly reduced face-to-face social interaction.
2.1.Social Anxiety, Gender Differences and Online Communication
The two previously mentioned theoretical approaches might adhere to different types of
Internet activities that may have differential effects on well-being. One type of activities
69
surfing, which can be described as visiting web sites on the Internet for non-communication
purposes. In contrast to surfing, Instant Messaging (IM-ing) consists of sending messages
directly to others one has invited to the online conversation. Because of its dyadic, real-time,
and private format, IM-ing has been seen as an excellent ‘training ground’ for adolescents in
terms of their social skills ( Morgan & Cotten, 2003; Valkenburg & Peter, 2007). A survey
study showed that among freshmen college students whereas increased time spent IM-ing
was uniquely associated with less reported depression, increased time spent surfing was
uniquely associated with more reported depression (Morgan and Cotten, 2003).
Females usually have more negative attitudes toward computers and greater computer anxiety
than males. Researhes on computer self-efficacy in general also revealed that males on
average have better computer self-efficacy than females (Hackett, 1985). Similarly, one
might expect adolescent girls to be more worried than boys about peers' negative evaluations
of them. Indeed, surveys have found that adolescent girls are more concerned than boys about
others' judgments of their appearance and behavior. Moreover, rates of internalizing problems
are higher among girls than boys and adult women are about twice as likely to be socially
phobic as men (Schneier et al., 1992). Thus, adolescent girls may be more vulnerable than
boys to feelings of social anxiety, and this may have implications for their social functioning
(La Greca and Lopez, 1998).
On the other hand, Shaw and Giacquinta (2000) discovered that educational technology
students reported using computers more frequently, for a wider array of purpose, and for
greater number of hours each week than students in the Educational Administration, Business
Education and Higher Education programs. They also reported completing more formal
instruction and more positive attidudes toward the value of computers in academic students
(Sam et al., 2005).
Jackson et al. (2001) predicted that women would use e-mail more and men use the Web for
information more, based on the greater interpersonal orientation of women and greater task
orientation of men. This prediction was supported in a large sample of Anglo-American
undergraduates, even after computer self-efficacy, loneliness and depression were controlled
for. Wasserman and Richmond-Abbott (2005) found that women use e-mail slightly but not
significantly more than men but that men use chat rooms more. Shepherd and Edelmann
(2005) study to explore social anxiety and Internet use in relation to regulation of social fears.
It is hypothesised that high social anxiety will be associated with low ego strength as well as
greater scores on the Internet.
3.METHODS
3.1.Purpose
Given the significant popularity of instant messaging, text messaging and other socially
interactive technologies among teens, it is important to examine their use. Since social
anxiety can effect one’s type of social interaction, it is prominent to examine if social anxiety
is influencing how adolescents communicate with others and which technology. The purpose
of this study is to research adolescents’ use of online social sites, cell phones, test messaging
and instant messaging and if social anxiety influences technology versus face-to-face
communication. So, the following hypotheses are proposed:
H1: Females use socially interactive technology (text messages, cell phones, e-mail, instant
messages) more than males.
70
H2a: There is a relationship between not feeling comfortable talking with others in person
and feeling more comfortable talking with others online.
H2b: There is a relationship between not feeling comfortable talking with others in person
and feeling more comfortable messaging with others.
H2c: There is a positive relationship between social anxiety (social phobia) and making new
friends online.
H2d: There is a relationship between the amount of their families’ monthly income and social
anxiety.
H3: Males are more social anxiety with face-to-face interactions than females.
H4: Males are feeling more comfortable talking with others through a social interaction
technology than females.
3.2.Participants and Datas
Participants consisted of 544 students from six High Schools in Afyonkarahisar, Kütahya and
Uşak cities. The age of the participants ranged from 15 to 18. 32.4% were freshman, 24.1%
were sophomore, 28.1% juniors and 15.4% were seniors. The sample consisted of 227
(41.7%) males and 317 (58.3%) females.
We first were contacted the principals and asked permission in order to survey some classes
on school. After that teachers was choosen to gain a sample of students from each school
year. After obtaining permission from teachers, each students were warned about survey able
to tell it their parents. The survey was applied in the students’classrooms and teachers was
present during all testing. All students received the same instructions and their identity would
remain secret. Each participant completed a report questionnaire.
3.3. Measures
The first two questions of the questionnaire consisted of primarily demographic questions
such as age, sex, year in school, and general informations. The next series og questions
included items of the students’ comfort level in interacting with others face-to-face, online
talking, cell phone or text messaging. Questions were prepared by using both nominal (yes or
no) and 5 point likert-type scales. Cronbach α for social anxiety and technological
communication is acceptable. (α=62.4)
4.RESULTS
3.7% stated the amount of chlidren who separate from their families is not adequate for
measuring the relationship between social anxiety and family stuation. First of all,
participants were asked about type of technological tools they had use.
88.9% reported having Personel computer.
79.2% reported having Internet on their PC.
92.6% stated that having messanger adress.
71
73% reported having e-mail accounts.
96.7% reported having cell phones.
72.2% reported having text messaging capabilities on their cell phones.
84.3% stated having online social sites and most of them are using facebook (49.2%). Most
of the other have more than one membership in social sites (twitter, myspace, linkedin etc).
The fallowing next questions asked how much time adolescents use each of their time on
their technological tools on average day. Table 1 shows the results.
Table 1. Technological tools use
9 h
(%)
+ 7-8
(%)
h 5-6
(%)
h 3-4
(%)
h 1-2
(%)
h 30
(%)
min None(%)
Msn
0.4
0.4
0
0.6
4.3
13.6
80.7
İnstant
message
3.7
2.2
4.6
10.8
17.5
23.6
37.5
Cell
phone
0.6
0.2
0.4
2.2
11.9
56.9
27.8
Social
sites
0.7
1.7
1.5
8.0
29.0
33.3
25.8
Music
3.9
2,4
5.0
10.3
39.0
31.8
7.6
Game
0.7
0.9
1.3
4,3
17.7
24.0
51.0
Mail
0.9
0.2
0.2
1.1
3.9
12.8
80.9
İnternet
1.1
0.4
1.1
6.7
26.8
40.1
23.8
As shown in Table 1, adolescents almost don’t use messanger sites and mail address. They
generally use instant message with their cell phones. They spend 1-2 hours for a day by
listening music and avarage 30 minutes during the day by using Facebook. More than half of
teens have cell phones that able to call, message and access to Internet. All following
hypothesis were examined to 95% level of confidence.
Hypothesis 1 stated that females use socially interactive technology (text messages, cell
phones, e-mail, instant messages) more than males. Females (M:1.08, SD:1.9) reported that
they are using text messaging more than males and significant relationship between text
messaging and interactive technology (M:1.52, SD:2.31, p:0.019). In addition, males (M:0,3,
SD:0.75) reported that they are playing games for a long time than females and there is a
gender differences between playing games on computer and social technology using (M:1.06,
SD:1.66, p:0.000). There is not gender differences in use of instant messaging, e-mail, social
network sites and chat rooms.
72
Hypothesis 2a posited that there could be a relationship between not feeling comfortable
talking with others in person and feeling more comfortable talking with others online. When
someone have to talk face to face, feeling anxiety was positively correlated with feeling
comfortable with others through cell phones and social media sites (r:0.445, p: 0.000).
Hypothesis 2b related that there would be a relationship between not feeling comfortable
talking with others in person and feeling more comfortable messaging with others. Results
revealed, there isn’t a relationship between social anxiety of face-to-face interaction and
feeling comfortable with others via messaging (p:0.204).
Hypothesis 2c reported that there would be a positive relationship between social anxiety
(social phobia) and making new friends online. There isn’t any relationship between social
anxiety and making new friends online (p:0.072, t: 1.801). but, there is a negative relationship
between online communication without face-to-face interactions and feeing anxiety when
having to talk face-to-face (p:0.024).
Hypothesis 2d revealed that there would be a relationship between the amount of their
families’ monthly income and social anxiety. The regression analysis showed, their isn’t a
relationship between the amount of families’ monthly income with social interaction
technologies (p: 0.230, r: 0.134).
Hypothesis 3 stated that males are more social anxiety (not comfortable with others by
talking) face-to-face interactions than females. Significance was not found for this
hypothesis. However, females are feeling more uncomfortable talking with other face-to-face
than males (Levene’s test p:0.017). There is just significant differences feeling comfortable
by talking with social media sites with gender (p:0.003), that is; famales (M:2.12, SD:0.92)
are more uncomfortable than do males (M:1.86, SD:0.99, p: 0.000).
Hypothesis 4 posited that males could more prefered talking with others through a social
interaction technology than females. There are significant difference, but only prefer talk with
someone on computer instead of talking and make new friends with someone on computer.
Females (M:3.71, SD:0.96) prefer talking with some on computer instead of talkin face-toface than males (M:3.48, SD:1.05, p: 0.009). Similarly, females (M:4.14, SD:1.04) prefer
making new friends with someone on computer more than males (M:3.62, SD:1.19, p: 0.000).
5.DISCUSSİON AND CONCLUSION
In Turkey, cell phone, text messaging, instant message and social sites membership are
recognized as the most important medium of communications among adolescents. Internet
access via PCs and mobile phones plays very significant role Turkey adolescents.
Technology tools effect teens’ social emotions against their families and friends. This study
demonstrated that teens are using socaily interactive technology to communicate with others
and it serves social anxiety and decreasing face-to face communication.
The findings of the current study found that females are using text messaging more than
males. However, males are playing games for a long time than females. In addition, females
are feeling more uncomfortable talking with others face-to-face than males. And, females
also prefer talking with some on computer instead of talking face-to-face than males.
Similarly, females prefer making new friends with someone on computer more than males.
Beyond the results of this study, we examined something very important stuation related to
adolescents’ today currents. While the age of participants were increasing, the time spend in
social media is decreasing. The reason for such conclusion revealed that, senior students have
73
to work more for university exams during education session. So, they can’t spend their time
on social media sites.
Many studies in this area is conducted for university students. The use of Internet as a social
tool is more common among at this age adolescents. But this study is related to high school
level for students and we examined the relationship between social anxiety and the use of
Internet, cell phone as a technological tools. Further studies may apply for university
students.Finally, adolescents who may be shy, have social fobia, and feel anxiety about
talking with someone, vairous and different technologies provide reliable opportunity for
them to contact with them. It is possible to reproduce the contributions of technology for our
world. Althought this technology facilities the lives of people, it sometimes breaks the peace.
Technology has changed the way we live todayand also changing our communication skills
with high costs. Only time will tell what is going on in the future. Parents and teachers have
great responsibilities for this subject.
REFERENCES
Auter P. J., (2007) Portable Social Groups: Willingness To Communicate, Interpersonal
Communication Gratifications, and Cell Phone Use Among Young Adults, Inetrnational J.
Mobile Communications, 5(2) 139-156.
Colley, A., and Maltby, J., (2008) Impact Of The Internet On Our Lives: Male and Female
Personal Perspectives, Computers In Human Behavior, 24, 2005-2013.
Hinduja S, Patchin J. (2007) Offline Consequences Of Online Victimization: School
Violence And Delinquency. J Sch Violence. 6(3): 89 –112.
La Greca, A. M. and Lopez N., (1998) Social Anxiety Among Adolescents: Linkages With
Peer Relations and Friendships, Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 26(2), 83-94.
Lenhart, A. (2005) Protecting Teens Online. Pew Internet and American Life Project. URL:
http://www.pewInternet.org/.
Morgan, C., and Cotten, S. R. (2003) The Relationship Between Internet Activities and
Depres-sive Symptoms in a Sample of College Freshmen. CyberPsychology and Behavior,
6(2), 133–142.
O’Keeffe, G. S., and Pearson, C., (2011) The İmpact of Social Media on Children,
Adolescents and Families, Journal of American Academy Of Pediatric, 800-805.
Pierce, T., (2009) Social Anxiety and Technology: Face-To-Face Communication Versus
Technological Communication Among Teens, Computers İn Human Behavior, 25, 13671372.
Sam, H. K., Othman, A. E. A., and Nordin, Z. S. (2005) Computer Self-Efficacy, Computer
Anxiety, and Attitudes Toward The Internet: A Study among Undergraduates in Unimas.
Educational Technology & Society, 8 (4), 205-219.
Selfhout, M. H. W., Branje, S. J. T., Delsing, M., Bogt, T. F. M., and Meeus W. H. J., (2009)
Different Types Of Internet Use, Depression, and Social Anxiety: The Role Of Perceived
Friendship Quality. Journal of Adolescence, 32 819-833.
Shepherd, R. M., and Edelmann, R. J., (2005) Reasons For İnternet Use and Social Anxiety,
Personality and Individual Differences, 39, 949-958.
Subrahmanyam S. and Lin, G., (2007) Adolescents On The Net: Internet Use and WellBeing, Adolescence, 42(168), 659-677.
74
The Effects Of Mentorship On The Success Of Firms
Şevket Yirik,Yusuf Yilmaz, Osman Nuri Demirel, Yıldırım Yilmaz,
Abdullah Akgün,Hasan Kinay
Abstract
This study analyzes the effects of mentorship applications on the success of enterprises. Field
work is carried to in the 5-star hotels who are active during 12 months in the Manavgat
region of Antalya (Turkey). The study is supported by 260 hotel personnel and 250
personnel responded. The study tries to find out if there is a relation between the application
of mentorship in the enterprises and issues such as value given to the employees, increase of
information exchange within the firm, enrichment of relations between the personnel,
development of career provided, performance and efficiency increase of the employees.
Keywords: Mentorship, Firm Success, Tourism, Hotel.
1.INTRODUCTION
Mentorship is not only to share the characteristics embedded in the person; it is something to
aid people to improve and show how to get them. In the business life, the mentorship is so
important especially for the new employees. It helps them to get know the company. It is also
a tool to transfer the knowledge and skills of the organization to the people who mark out for
a brilliant future.
The aim of this study is to search the affects of mentorship applications for the business
performance.
2.Background
Values and Institutional culture. Main topics in the agenda of the managers and the owners
are related to increase the revenue and the profit, to develop new ideas, to create high
performance teams and to reduce the risks. In order to reach these goals they are taking many
initiatives and applying new methods such as reengineering, paying high salary and bonuses,
having different training and providing external motivation. On the other hand, the least
focused but probably the most effective one is creating “institutional culture”. It can be
defined as rules, criteria and judges which are not written. It is a value system which defines
the way of thinking of employees and the managers. The concept of institutional culture can
also act as a moral plaster that gather the people in the organizations. Appropriate
institutional culture supports in getting the goals of the organization through ensuring a
platform for the employees to lend their soul to their work. By doing this, the employees
behave as patriot and brave soldiers who they believe the war they are in not as ladrone.
Institutional culture occurs firstly with the respectful behavior of managers to their
subordinates, the relationship between the people, support and solidarity, company values,
shared things and other elements. On the other hand, to increase the institutional culture to
75
the right level and to manage and to develop it in a continual manner is a matter of expertise
which is not merely known nowadays. It is, therefore, needed for many institutions to get
consultancy services. If we believe that the factor behind the successful company is the
environment where the people add something and balance their business and private life in a
good way, we have to take this subject into our agenda not as a luxury but a necessity.
Communication is the transfer of information or knowledge from one person to another. It is
vital for human beings to express themselves as social being. It is a process of knowledge
production, transfer and perception.
Knowledge and experience transfer are two topics important for the institutional culture
literature. There are different people in the organizations with different past, knowledge,
world view, mental structure and the motivation. Knowledge cannot be piled without
gathering the implicit knowledge of these people which are the most valuable treasury of the
organization. To share the implicit knowledge, a common space is needed. Common space
refers to the conceptual combination of physical, virtual and mental spaces which facilitate
the required activities for knowledge creation process and sharings to happen. The works in
the common space should be as far as productive and comphrensive. Knowledge oriented
organizations requires to develop and apply business culture strategy (Güçlü, Sotirofski,
2006).
Career development, on the other hand, has been one of the main topics in nowadays business
environment because of the change of the relation between organization and employee,
organization structure and the expectations of the employees. Management approaches like
downsizing, outsourcing, total quality management, people-oriented management, change
management, learning organization which are all result of the globalization have led the
concept of career to change. To invest in employees and to improve their skills will provide
competitive advantage in the global business environment.
Performance and Productivity. Performance management is a new subject. The performance
of an organization is the output at the end of a period or outcomes of the activities. These
outcomes can be regarded as the rate of reaching the goals determined by the organization.
For companies, it is possible to have some goals (profitability, productivity, efficiency etc.).
Productivity is related to the inputs and outputs and it refers what extent to the organization
uses its resources. It is the main part of performance (Yükçü and Atağan, 2009).
Mentor and Mentee . Mentorship is arbitrary or professional, one to one relationship which
aims to support and encourage the person (Özkalp vd., 2006: 55). Daresh (2004) sees the
mentorship as a process of personal improvement. It is a process that is conducted under the
supervision of such people who has guiding, protecting and leading skills. Mentor is the one
who holds such characteristics. Gettys (2007), on the other hand, states that the mentorship is
a mutual cooperative process and experienced mentor guide his/her student to improve
his/her knowledge and skills (Gettys, 2007: 7-8).
Two concepts need to be mentioned here: Mentor and mentee. Mentor is a supervisor and
guides the person to help him/her to develop his/her career through supporting, teaching and
listening. The term “mentor” is used to define a person who shares his/her expertise and
knowledge with other people. Mentee or protegé’ is the one who benefits the mentorship
service.
76
3. RESEARCH
3.1.Method and Hypotheses
This study is modeled according to the descriptive method and relational scanning
model. Relational scanning models aim to define the existence and level of relation between
two or more variables. The hypotheses of the study are as follows:
H1: There is a significant relationship between mentorship implementation and the value that
the mangers show to their subordinates
H2: There is a significant relationship between the mentorship implementation and the
increase in knowledge transfer in the organization
increase in communication level in the organization
H4: There is a significant relationship between the mentorship implementation and career
development of the employees
increase of performance and productivity of the employees
3.2. Sampling and Data Collection
The study was conducted in Manavgat, Antalya. The unit of study is hotel employees.
Questionnaire method was used to collect the data. Questionnaires were distributed to 260
employees and 250 of them were collected with a turn rate of 96%.
Questionnaire consists of 6 parts. In the first part demographics take place. Second
part dedicated to organizational commitment. There are 5 items in this part. This and the
following parts, the 5-point Likert scale was used with “1” indicating Absolutely Disagree
and “5” indicating Absolutely Agree. The Cronbah’s Alpha of this scale is 0.811.
Third part is related to the survival in the company and there are 4 items in this part.
The Cronbah’s Alpha of this scale is 0.875.
Performance questions are in the fourth part and there are 3 items with 0.911
Cronbah’s Alpha. Communication is in fifth part. There are 3 items in this scale and the
reliability is 0.729. Management related questions are in the last section. 6 items take place
in this part. The Cronbah’s Alpha is 0.838.
3.3.Data Analysis
Demographics are gathered using frequency tables. For the Likert scale questions , firstly
reliability then the normality test were done. Simple regression analysis were used for
commitment, performance, communication, and management scales. The significance level is
determined as 0.05.
77
3.4. Findings
3.4.1.Demographics
Gender
N
%
Education
N
Male
118
47.2
High School
16
6.4
Female
132
52.8
Undergraduate
173
69.2
Master
47
18.8
14
5.6
Age
%
19-22
34
13.6
Ph.D
23-26
91
36.4
Position
27-30
67
26.8
Manager
45
18
31-34
12
4.8
Employee
205
82
35-38
10
2.5
Nu.of
Hotels
worked
before
39-42
8
3.2
0
73
29.2
43-45
7
2.8
1
162
64.8
46-49
9
3.6
1+
15
6
50-more
12
4.8
0-1
41
16.4
2-4
59
23.6
5-6
52
20.8
7-9
27
10.8
10-12
17
6.8
13-15
16
6.4
16-18
11
4.4
19-21
19
7.6
22-more
8
3.2
Years in the hotel
Half of the respondents are below the age of 27. Most of them (%69) holds university degree.
65% of the respondents (162 person) stated that this is their second jobs whereas this ratio is
%29 (73 person) for the first time worker. 40% (100 person) of the respondents have been
working in their current hotel for less than 5 years. 71 person (28.4%) have been working for
more than 10 years in the same hotel.
78
3.4.2.Findings of Hypothesis Tests
Five Hypotheses are tested with lineer regression test.
H1: There is a significant relationship between mentorship implementation and the value that
the mangers show to their subordinates
R2
Adjusted R2
Standard Error p
0,063
0,071
0,865
0,032
There is a significant relation between the mentorship implementations and the value that the
managers show to their subordinates.
increase in knowledge transfer in the organization
R2
Adjusted R2
Standard Error p
0,041
0,039
0,095
0,028
The result of regression analysis show that there is a significant relation between the
mentorship implementations and the knowledge transfer in the organization.
increase in communication level in the organization
R2
Adjusted R2
Standard Error
p
0,274
0,075
0,462
0,011
There is
a
significant relation between the mentorship implementations and the increase in
communication level in the organization.
H4: There is a significant relationship between the mentorship implementation and career
development of the employees
R2
0,051
Adjusted R2
0,001
Standard Error
1,126
p
0,021
According to the result of the regression test there is a significant relation between the
mentorship implementation and career development of the employees
increase of performance and productivity of the employees
79
R2
0,159
Adjusted R2
0,04
Standard Error
0,691
p
0,023
Hypothesis 5 is accepted as the significance level is below 0.05 (0.23). It means that there is a
significant relation between the mentorship implementation and the increase of performance
and productivity of the employees.
4. DISCUSSION
Today’s competitive environment requires the companies to have the qualified human
resources as the most important capital. It is no surprising to see the employee satisfaction to
be in the agenda of the companies. One way of increasing the satisfaction level and abilities
of employees and improving the professional skills is the mentorship implementations in the
organization.
We need from time to time somebody to consult who will share his/her expertise and guide
us. Mentorship provides this through transferring the experiences of senior people to less
experienced people in the organization.
The success of mentorship program in the organization depends on analyzing the need
carefully and assign the right person as mentor to the mentee. It is also important to get
feedback continually from both mentor and mentee from the beginning of the program in
order to revise the content of the program in time. Mentorship programs are not compulsory
programs. Mentors and mentees should meet periodically and have improvement focused
conversation. Working on projects can also be influential for the effectiveness of the
program.
Well designed mentorship programs add value to the institution, mentor and mentee.
Mentorship programs;
Helps the organization values to be espoused by the employees,
Helps to transfer the institutional knowledge form one generation to another in the
organization and facilitate the adaption of new comers
Helps mentees to work with the mentors in a one to one learning relationship which can aid
the employees in their career development
Helps mentors to feel the pleasure of preparing the future leaders
According to the result of the study, the organizations implementing mentorship benefit from
these programs in different ways. The employees feel themselves as valuable for the
company. This affects the business performance in a positive manner through the increase in
communication level in the organization, and the decrease in leaving the job which all
together leads to increase in productivity and quality in production.
REFERENCES
80
Daresh, J. (2004). Mentoring school leaders: Professional Promise or Predictable Problems?
Educational Administration Quarterly. 40(4): 495-517.
Gettys, S.G. (2007). The Role of Mentoring in Developing Beginning Principals'
Instructional Leadership Skills. Unpublished Dissertation, University of Missouri-Columbia.
Güçlü N. & Sotirofski, K. (2006). Bilgi Yönetimi, Türk Eğitim Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(4): 351371.
Güler, E.Ç. (2006). İşletmelerin E-İnsan Kaynakları Yönetimi ve E-İşe Alım Süreçlerindeki
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81
Analysis Of The Hotel Personnel’s Conceptions Of Organizational Justice,
Organizational Silence, Mobbing, Organizational Commitment In Terms Of
Demographic Variables
Şevket Yirik, Yusuf Yilmaz, Osman Nuri Demirel,Yıldırım Yilmaz,
Abdullah Akgün, Hasan Kinay
Abstract
This study analyses the conceptions of organizational justice, organizational silence,
mobbing, organizational commitment in terms of demographic variables in hotel
management. Field work is carried out in the 5-star hotels that are active during 12 months in
the Manavgat region of Antalya (Turkey). The study is supported by 229 hotel personnel and
all responded. The study reveals that factors such as gender, age, educational level,
professional rank and position have considerable effects on the conceptions of institutional
devotion, mobbing, institutional repose and institutional justice.
Keywords: Organizational Justice, Organizational Silence, Mobbing, Organizational
Commitment
1.THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
1.1.Organizational Justice
Originally, the conception of organizational justice is based on “Equity Theory” of Adams in
1965 (Baş and Şentürk, 2011: 33). Organizational justice is whether there is equity or not
comparing what the employees bring in the company according to the contributions the
employees made to the company (time, work, earnings). Organizational Justice is examined
under three headings; distributive justice, procedural justice and personal interaction justice.
(Cohen-Charash and Spector, 2001: 279; St‐Pierre and Holmes, 2010: 1171).
1.2. Organizational Silence
Organizational Silence was proposed by Hirschman in 1970; however, it was first used as a
definition by Morrison and Milliken in 2000 (Erenler, 2010). Organizational silence can be
seen when the employees do not express their views and concerns about the company
(Morrison and Milliken, 2000).
The employee silence, on the other hand, can be defined as not revealing one’s feelings, not
sharing with others and concealing the problems by remaining silent and keeping on working
as if nothing happened. There may be many reasons why the employee prefers to remain
silent. These can be stated as the behavioural habits, consciousness and decision mechanisms
(Blackman and Sadler-Smith, 2009: 571-572). The institutional reasons of the organizational
silence are as follows:

82
Organizational Reasons


















Injustice Culture
Silence Climate
Organizational Culture
Managerial Reasons
Negative Feedback Fears of Managers
Prejudices towards Work and Worker
Character of the Manager
Homogeneity of the Management Team
Individual Reasons
Lack of Confidence
Considering Talking Risky
Fear of Isolation
Past Experiences
Fear for Damaging the Relations
Character and Personality
National and Cultural reasons
Cultural Structure and Norms
Power Distance
1.3. Mobbing
Latin origin word, mobbing means “psychological violence, disturbance and harassment”.
The term mobbing was first suggested by Lorenz in 1960, a scientist who was observing
animal behaviours (Davenport et. al., 2003: 3). In the beginning of 1980s, Leymann
determined that these kind of outrageous and negative behaviours were taking place in
workplaces. Although Leyman met this behaviour style in 1980s, the studies indicate that this
behaviour goes far beyond (Leymann, 1996: 166). In 1983, in Norway, the mobbing that 3
teenagers were subject to ended with the suicides of these three teenagers. Hereupon, a
broadened investigation was carried out by the Ministry of Education and violence and
situations of the victims were revealed. Programs in the USA, England and Germany, in the
1990s, started to be applied for protecting the kids and the youth (Olweus, 1993). However,
the first study in Turkey about mobbing was conducted in 2003 (Yavuz, 2007: 7).
World Health Organization (WHO) defines mobbing as, attitudes and behaviours that damage
physical, psychological and moral development of the individuals or groups by using power
against them (Akgeyik vd., 2009: 98). The disturbing behaviours of mobbing that even ends
in the resignation of the employees have risen a lot recently.
1.4. Organizational Commitment
Organizational Commitment can be said to exist when the employees are willing to stay in
the organization and adopt the beliefs of the company as their own and dedicate their work in
accordance with company’s interests (Becker, 1960: 32).
83
The factors effecting the organizational commitment are studied under four subtitles; factors
concerning work and duty, working place and working conditions, organizational structure
and demographic factors (Topaloğlu et. al., 2008: 953).
Approaches of organizational commitment can be gathered under three titles; attitudinal
commitment, behavioural commitment and normative commitment (Kitapçı, 2006:75).
2. METHODOLOGY
2.1. The Aim of the Study
This study aims to introduce whether the perceptions of organizational justice, organizational
silence, mobbing and organizational commitment of the hotel employees differ in terms of
demographic variables or not. In this respect, the differences in the perceptions of
organizational justice, organizational silence, mobbing and organizational commitment of the
hotel employees were examined regarding their age, gender, educational background and
work experience.
2.2. Sampling
The universe of the study is the 5 star hotel employees in the city of Antalya. Due to the time
and financial difficulties experienced in reaching the universe, random sampling was used. In
this context, the sampling of this study is 229 employees of a 5 star hotel in Antalya. The
questionnaire was distributed to 229 people and all was responded. No invalid questionnaire
was determined while analyzing the data.
2.3. Data Collection
Questionnaires were used as a means of data collection. Questionnaire was composed of 5
main parts. In the first part, Personal Information Form; in the second part, Organizational
Commitment Scale; in the third part Mobbing Scale; in the fourth part Organizational Silence
Scale; in the fifth part Organizational Justice Scale was used.
2.3.1. Personal Information Form
Questions like gender, age, educational background, work experience, salary, position and
weekly working hours were in the form in order to determine the demographics of the hotel
employees.
2.3.2. Organizational Commitment Scale
The Organizational Commitment Scale developed by Meyer and Allen (1991) was used. The
scale had 19 items and prepared in accordance with 5 points Likert Scale ( 1= Absolutely
disagree, 5= Absolutely agree). Since the 3rd, 4th, 6th and 13 the items of the scale include
negative statements, they were coded with reverse coding method. Thus, it was stated that the
higher the score from the scale is, the more the commitment of the employee has. The
84
reliability of the scale was high in many studies in which it was used. For this study, the
reliability of the scale was determined as 0, 744 and was highly reliable.
2.3.3. Mobbing (Psychological Violence) Scale
The appropriate questions for this study about mobbing were chosen from the LIPT
(Leymann Inventory of Psychological Terror) , the questionnaire version of which was
developed by Klaus Niedl and were selected from the Negative Action Questionnaire (NAQ)
, the questions of which were developed by Stale Einarsen, Björn Inge Raknes, Stig Berge
Matthiesen and Odd (Mercan, 2007: 120). The Mobbing Scale including 14 items was
examined in accordance with 5 points Likert Scale (1= Absolutely disagree, 5= Absolutely
agree). With a minimum score of 5 and maximum score of 70, the mobbing (being subject to
psychological violence) was said to be increasing when the total score rises. In these studies,
the reliability of the scale (α ) was observed to be considerably high and the reliability and
validity were proved. For this study, the reliability of the scale was observed as 0, 959 and
was found to be highly reliable.
2.3.4. Organizational Silence Scale
The question form designed by Çakıcı ve Çakıcı (2007) was used for preparing the questions
about organizational silence. The scale consisted of 28 questions and was examined in
accordance with 5 points Likert type. ( 1= Absolutely disagree, 5=Absolutely agree). The
most appropriate 13 out of 28 questions were chosen for the study. The minimum score was 5
and the maximum score was 65 and it was stated that the higher the total point was, the more
the organizational silence becomes. Many studies that this scale was used indicated that this
scale was a considerably reliable one. As for this study, the reliability of the scale was
determined as 0,951 and was rather high.
2.3.5. Organizational Justice Scale
While preparing the questions about Organizational Justice, 20 item- Organizational Justice
Scale of Niehoff and Moorman (1993) was used (Yıldırım, 2002). The scale was evaluated in
accordance with 5 points Likert type. ( 1= Absolutely disagree, 5=Absolutely agree). With
the evaluation of each response for each statement, the score of organizational justice was
found. The minimum score was 5 and the maximum score was 100 and it was stated that the
higher the total point was, the more effective the organizational justice applications are.
Many studies in which this scale was used indicated that this scale was a considerably
reliable one. As for this study, the reliability of the scale was determined as 0,956 and was
indicated to be considerably high.
3. Data Analysis
In this study, Independent Samples T Test and ANOVA were used in accordance with the
aim of the study. Data analysis was made using SPSS 17.0 package program. .05 and .01
significance levels are used in the study.
85
4. Findings
4.1. Demographics
Demographic profiles of the respondents can be seen in Table 1.
Table 1. Demographics
Variables
Gender
Age
n
%
Female
117
51,1
Male
112
48,9
Total
229
100,0
25-30
32
14,0
31-36
95
41,5
37-42
38
16,6
43 and over
64
27,9
Total
229
100,0
Primary School
31
13,5
High School
51
22,3
Vocational School
26
11,4
Undergraduate
75
32,8
Graduate
46
20,0
Total
229
100,0
2-6 years
41
17,9
7-11 years
117
51,1
12-16 years
71
31,0
Total
229
100,0
1500 TL and less
67
29,2
1501-2000 TL
21
9,2
2001-2500 TL
29
12,7
Education
Work
Experience
Salary
86
Position
Weekly
Working Hour
2501-3000 TL
20
8,7
3001-3500 TL
47
20,5
3501 and more
45
19,7
Total
229
100,0
Worker
68
29,7
Assistant
22
9,6
Expert
14
6,1
Middle Level Manager
47
20,5
Senior Manager
78
34,1
Total
229
100,0
41-60 hour
80
34,9
61-80 hour
145
63,3
81 hour and more
4
1,8
Total
229
100,0
As it is seen in Table 1 the ratio of female and male is nearly the same. The dominant age
group is between 31 and 36 (41.5 %). Above half of the respondents are graduated from the
university (52.8%). Most of them have been working for less than 12 years (69%). Majority
of them are in the group of 7 and 11 years as working experience (51%).
Workers (29.7%) and senior managers (34.1%) are two dominant groups and the salaries are
less than 1.500 TL. (29.2%) and more than 3.000 TL.(40.2%). People are working mostly
between 61-80 hours in a week (63.3%).
4.2. Reliability Analysis
Reliability is determined with Cronbach’s Alpha. The reliability results can be seen at Table
2.
Table 2. Reliability Analysis Results
N
87
Cronbach’s
Alpha
Organisational Commitment
Mobbing
Organisational Silence
Organisational Justice
18
14
13
10
0,744
0,959
0,951
0,956
It seems that reliability of all the scales is high.
4.3. Normality Tests
The normality tests are done in this part of the study. To test the normality, KolmogorovSmirnov Z test was applied using the total points of the scales. This normality tests were done
to determine which tests were appropriate to examine the hypotheses tests.
Table 3. Results of Normality Tests
KolmogorovSmirnov Z
3,610
4,116
2,405
4,000
Organisational Commitment
Mobbing
p
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
According to the Table 3, total scores of the scales do not seem to fit the normal distribution
(p<0,05). This result leads the researchers to use non-parametric methods to test the
hypotheses.
4.4. Findings According to Gender Differences
Table 4 shows the Mann Whitney U test results of gender differences in organisational
commitment, mobbing, organisational silence, and organisational justice.
Table 4. Findings According to Gender Differences- Mann Whitney U Test Results
Scale
Group
N
Mean Rank U
P
Organisational
Commitment
Mobbing
88
Female
117
135,53
Male
112
93,55
Female
117
84,35
Male
112
147,02
Female
117
92,71
Male
112
138,29
Female
117
135,71
4150,000
0,000**
2966,000
0,000**
3944,000
0,000**
4129,000
0,000**
Male
112
93,37
**
p<0,01
It is seen from the Table 4 that hotel employees’ perception on organisational commitment,
mobbing, organisational silence, and organisational justice differs at 0.01 significant level
between females and males. According to the mean ranks, perception of female employees on
organisational commitment and organisational justice are higher than male employees
whereas for the mobbing and organizational silence, perception of male employees is higher
than females.
4.5. Findings According to Age Differences
To test the differences occur for organisational commitment, mobbing, organisational silence
and organisational justice according to the age, Kruskal Wallis H test was applied. The results
are indicated at Table 5.
Table 5. Findings According to Age Differences- Kruskal Wallis H Test Results
2
Scale
Group
N
Mean Rank
P

Organisational
Commitment
Mobbing
Organisational
Silence
Organisational
Justice
89
25–30
32
106,03
31–36
95
129,22
37–42
38
111,03
43 years and over
64
100,73
25–30
32
142,66
31–36
95
102,95
37–42
38
58,12
43 years and over
64
152,83
25–30
32
133,47
31–36
95
96,41
37–42
38
77,16
43 years and over
64
155,83
25–30
32
90,00
31–36
95
138,93
37–42
38
154,11
8,177
0,042*
58,456
0,000**
47,078
0,000**
62,641
0,000**
43 years and over
64
68,77
**
*
p<0,01
p<0,05
According to the age of the hotel employees there are significant differences for all scales.
The significance level is 0.05 for the organisational commitment whereas 0.001 for other
scales.
4.6. Findings According to Differences in Education Level
Table 6 shows the Kruskal Wallis H test results of education differences in organisational
Table 6. Findings According to Education Differences- Kruskal Wallis H Test Results
2
Scale
Group
N
Mean Rank
P

Organisational
Commitment
Mobbing
Organisational
Silence
Organisational
Justice
90
Primary School
31
16,00
High School
51
101,88
Vocational School
26
161,88
Undergraduate
75
146,81
Graduate
46
117,89
Primary School
31
183,03
High School
51
154,55
Vocational School
26
125,58
Undergraduate
75
76,84
Graduate
46
81,54
Primary School
31
198,52
High School
51
140,59
Vocational School
26
123,04
Undergraduate
75
78,84
Graduate
46
84,76
Primary School
31
46,16
High School
51
92,43
103,004
0,000**
89,458
0,000**
89,958
0,000**
80,135
0,000**
Vocational School
26
83,27
Undergraduate
75
143,52
Graduate
46
157,85
**
p<0,01
According to the education level of the hotel employees there are differences for all scales at
0.01 significance level. It seems that perception of mobbing and organisational silence
increase as the level of education decreases. On the other hand, the organisational justice
perception increases as the level of education increases.
4.7. Findings According to Differences in Work Experience
Table 7 shows the Kruskal Wallis H test results of differences of work experience of
employees for organisational commitment, mobbing, organisational silence, and
organisational justice
Table 7. Findings According to Work Experience- Kruskal Wallis H Test Results
N
Mean Rank
2
P
Organizational 2–6 years
41
55,29
42,881
0,000**
Commitment
7–11 years
117
123,05
12–16 years
71
136,21
2–6 years
41
151,68
31,221
0,000**
7–11 years
117
92,21
12–16 years
71
131,38
41
165,59
36,444
0,000**
Silence
7–11 years
117
94,00
12–16 years
71
120,39
41
88,29
27,834
0,000**
Justice
7–11 years
117
137,29
12–16 years
71
93,68
Scale
Mobbing
**
p<0,01
91
Group
According to the work experience of the hotel employees the difference at the significance
level is 0.01 for the organisational commitment, mobbing, organizational silence and
organizational justice.
4.8. Findings According to Differences in Positions
Table 8 shows the Kruskal Wallis H test results of differences in position for organisational
Table 8. Findings According to Position- Kruskal Wallis H Test Results
Scale
Group
N
Mean
2
P
159,880
0,000**
152,276
0,000**
170,593
0,000**
142,661
0,000**
Rank
Organizational
Assistant
22
109,68
Commitment
47
179,47
Senior Manager
78
125,58
Expert
14
206,50
Worker
68
41,19
Assistant
22
160,32
47
67,55
Senior Manager
78
77,91
Expert
14
58,50
Worker
68
187,31
Organizational
Assistant
22
131,86
Silence
47
81,72
Senior Manager
78
80,37
Expert
14
7,50
Worker
68
194,40
Organizational
Assistant
22
84,50
Justice
47
114,40
Senior Manager
78
166,08
Expert
14
198,50
Worker
68
49,50
Mobbing
92
**
p<0,01
According to the work positions of the hotel employees, the difference at the significance
level is 0.01 for the organisational commitment, mobbing, organizational silence and
organizational justice.
5. DISCUSSION
In this study, it was determined that the woman employees’ perception of organizational
commitment and organizational justice is higher than that of the men whereas the men
employees’ perception of organizational silence is higher than that of the women.
As for the age, while the organizational commitment of 31-36 age groups is the highest, the
employees’ commitment at the age of 43 and over is the lowest. The age group 43 and over
was subject to mobbing at the highest level and 25-30 ages followed that and 37-42 age group
were subject to the mobbing the least. Moreover, while organizational silence of the 43 and
over age group is the highest, the organizational silence of 37-42 is the lowest. The
organizational justice perception of the age group 37-42 was determined to be the highest.
The organizational commitment of the employees who are graduates of primary school is the
lowest and vocational school graduates’ perception is the highest. The primary school
graduates were observed to be subject to mobbing more often than the others. Generally, it
can be stated that the higher the graduate degree is, the lower the employees are subject to
mobbing. It was also observed that the organizational silence of primary school graduates is
higher than that of the others. As the education level increases, the perception of
organizational silence decreases. Besides, as the education level increases, the perception of
organizational justice increases in parallel.
In general, it was determined that as the working year increases, the organizational
commitment increases, too. While the mobbing rate is the highest among the employees
having a work experience of 2-6 years; it is the lowest among 7-11 years. The organizational
silence of the employees who worked for 2-6 years is the highest and 7-11 years is the lowest.
The organizational justice perception of the employees with 2-6 years of working experience
is the lowest and 7-11 years of working experience is the highest.
As for the positions, the workers organizational commitment is the lowest and that of the
experts is the highest. The mobbing rate among the workers is the highest whereas it the
lowest among the experts. The organizational silence of the workers is the highest and that of
the experts is the lowest. The perception of organizational justice of the experts is the highest
while that of the workers is the lowest.
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94
The Impacts Of Using Additional Teaching Materials On Students’ Performance In
Package Program Education: The Case Of Fidelio And Sejour
Hasan Kinay, Abdullah Akgün, Hakan Çetin, Yusuf Yilmaz, Zeki Akinci
Akdeniz University
[email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
This study has been carried out to examine the effects of the use of additional teaching
materials on student's performances, during educational activities regarding the use of
package programs in the tourism sector. The study design called for two separate groups.
Students were provided with a laboratory for study outside of course hours. 73 students took
part in practice sessions outside of course hours, while a total of 145 students took the
examinations. While researching the effects of using course books, 93 students took classes
having been provided course books, while a further 97 students took the classes without
course books. A post test controlled experimental design was used to compare the two
groups. The study was carried out with third year students of the Akdeniz University, School
of Tourism and Hotel Management in the fall term of the 2011 – 2012 educational year. To
gather data on the effectiveness of usage of course books, the Fidelio program instructors
applied a test with 10 open ended questions, prepared by employees working in the sector and
using the program and the researchers. For the laboratory effectiveness study, a post test
consisting of 10 questions was prepared by the researchers together with sector employees
and applied to the students. The results of the study were evaluated using the SPSS 15.0
statistical software package. Based on the findings, the researchers have made
recommendations on the use of course books and laboratory study outside of class hours in
applied courses such as package program instruction.
Keywords: Additional Teaching Materials, Package Program Education, Package Program
Usage
1.INTRODUCTION
We are living in an age where global competition pressures are increasing, information is
produced rapidly and the information produced is consumed even faster than it is being
created; the information age. This age is characterized by an increased flow of information
between organizations, individuals and institutions, where the effectiveness of this interaction
is high. The increase of the amount of information, triggered by computer use, has affected
all sectors, including the tourism and hotel sector.
The tourism sector bases activities on the production of services, requiring an active
workforce, while some positions, such as customer service and reception, necessitate a face to
95
face relationship with customers, meaning that there is a need for qualified personnel. In the
constantly changing and developing society, it is clear that individuals who can use
information technologies in an efficient way will be considered to be highly qualified and
will be more successful (Kurbanoğlu and Akkoyunlu, 2002). For this reason, those wishing to
find employment in the tourism sector must be skilled in the use of at least one of the
automated systems that are widely used, in order to find employment more easily. The
effective use of information technologies in the tourism industry, in hotels, catering
establishments, travel companies and sub-units of these organizations, facilitates the
management of human resources and increases the efficiency of employees. If human
resources can benefit from information technologies, the quality and global competitiveness
of the tourism industry will increase (Alkaya, 2006).
A study performed in 2004 shows that the greatest issue encountered in computer use in
hotels stems for the users, but more specifically, the training of users. The same study
concludes that “problems caused by the training of users must be decreased” (Kınay and
Kınay, 2004).
An examination of curricula of schools providing tourism education shows that the vast
majority include courses on automated systems used in the sector. The most encountered
problem in automation education is that students are not able to repeat and practice what the
learn in class. Even if the student is able to perform all of the tasks as described by the
instructor, as the students are not able to repeat these tasks outside of the classroom, they
usually come to the next session having forgotten all they have learned. However, being
“informed” in the information age means to develop learning capacities, use information,
obtain new skills and turn this into a consistent form of behaviour (Yıldırım, 2001). Failure to
utilise skills learned in class outside of the classroom means that learning has not really taken
place.
In information technologies education, whether a student owns a computer, how effectively
the student uses computers in daily life, and the social environment all affect the quality of
the learning process. A study performed on “information technology education in primary
schools shows that gender, the educational status of the parents, whether the family owns a
computer, whether the parents assist the child with homework, the student's perceptions and
attitudes towards studying all have a statistically significant effect (Demir, 2008).
In the transition from an industrial society to information society, educational models also
exhibit significant changes. In transitioning to an information society, the teacher's role as a
guide, the student learning through teamwork, management based on educationaladministrative leadership, learning based on personal initiative, variable educations programs,
organizational learning and multi-faceted conceptional learning criteria become important. In
this context, learning through computer laboratory activities, with peers, through debate and
consulting other resources and by joint activities that allow students to complement each
other, is considered to have the potential to be high quality and sustainable.
Many studies show that the use of additional teaching materials has a positive effect on
student success. The effect of computer assisted instruction has been shown to have a positive
effect in science classes (Altunay and Şeker, 2008), English classes (Akdağ and Tok, 2008),
and education with autistic children (Bayram, 2006).
2. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES AND PACKAGE PROGRAMS
96
All technology used in gathering, processing, storing, transmitting through networks and
presenting information to users, including communication and computing technologies, may
be referred to as “information technologies” (Tonta,1999).
Developments in information technology have also affected the field of software. Two
important developments have taken place in the field of software for end users in an
organizational context. Firstly, instead of specific programs with a single aim developed by in
house software experts or end users, organizations are using package programs developed by
software companies. This trend began with the emergence of affordable and easy to use
software packages designed for micro computers. Today, package programs are available for
almost every sector and are developed and marketed by software companies.
3. USAGE OF PACKAGE PROGRAMS IN THE TOURISM SECTOR
Considering that electronic trade is becoming widespread and will take up an important share
in the total trade volume of all countries, information technology has become an important
issue (Gölönü, 2006). Computer based automation systems have become an important
infrastructural element in the tourism sector. To address this need, many software companies
have developed automation software systems specifically for hotels.
Tourism companies are required to gather information regularly, store this information and
recall it when necessary. Travel agents are required to fill in forms regarding the products or
services that they market as intermediaries, such as accommodation, independent catering
services from restaurants, cafes and bars etc., yacht and boat rental companies, other travel
agencies organizing city tours, airlines, car or limousine rental companies, railways, maritime
transportation companies, and those providing guidance services in museums and places of
interest in order to achieve continuity in their services and therefore achieve efficiency and
customer satisfaction. Therefore, travel agencies are marketing information in a sense. In this
context, travel agencies depend on correct and timely information in their operations, and
information technologies are a vital aspect in management.
As the tourism sector is based on the production and development of information,
information technologies are highly significant. For this reason, there is a multitude of
package programs for tourism operators on the market and it is almost impossible to find a
tourism agency that does not use package programs. Most of the software developed for the
tourism sector targets travel agencies and organizations providing accommodation.
4. PACKAGE
INSTITUTIONS
PROGRAM
EDUCATION
IN
TOURISM
EDUCATION
Software companies marketing to the tourism sector provide most of their automation
software to education institutions providing tourism education for free or a modest fee. For
example, PROTEL, a company representing the Fidelio program provides free education to
instructors giving reception courses in universities, in the scope of the Tourism Education and
Employment Support Project. If the instructor achieves a score of 70 or higher in the
examination at the end of the training, the Fidelio program is provided to the educational
institution free of charge. SAN Bilgisayar, the producer of the Sejour program, used in travel
agency automation, provided the program to schools free of charge, but now is struggling to
97
cope with the demand and charges a modest fee. Some other programs such as Newage and
Tourkuaz are free to try or have demo versions.
5. METHODOLOGY
5.1. Aim of the Study
The aim of the study is to identify whether the use of course books and laboratory
sessions outside of class hours, constituting additional teaching materials, has an effect on
student success in applied vocational information technology courses. Furthermore, this study
aims to identify if schools and administrators providing IT systems education should facilitate
the provision of resources and space for students to study outside of class hours, to achieve
higher quality and permanency in learning processes.
5.2. Research Methods
The study consisted of two parts. 73 students took part in laboratory application
sessions outside of class hours, and took the examination which was taken by a total of 145
students. To examine the effectiveness of the use of course books, 93 students were provided
with course books, while 97 students were not. The study used a post test controlled
experimental design. The population for the study was all students receiving package
program education, while the sample selected consisted of third year students at the Akdeniz
University, School of Tourism and Hotel Management, department of travel and
accommodation management. The data was gathered based on the results of the test that was
performed. All data was analyzed using the SPSS 15.0 program.
5.3.Hypothesis
Assuming that practice on the computer is necessary for students to be successful in
package program education, our hypothesis was as follows
H1: Practice with the package program in the computer laboratory outside of class hours,
together with peers, has a positive effect on academic success.
Assuming that students required course books as well as computer practice to be
successful in package program education, our hypothesis was as follows:
H2: Apart from computer practice in package program education, the distribution of course
books has a positive effect on academic success.
6. FINDINGS
In this section, we will examine the hypothesis formulated above. Table 1 displays the
correlation between students practice in computer laboratories outside of class hours and
course success.
98
Table 1: Students activities outside of class hours and Success Rates
Correlation
Success
Success
Study Outside
of Class
1
.423**
.000
Study Outside
of Class
146
146
.423**
1
.000
146
146
As shown in Table 1, there is a correlation between the exam results and the time spent by
students in study outside of class hours. The correlation coefficient was found to be .423. As
a result, we can conclude that study in computer laboratories outside of class hours has a
moderate positive effect on academic success (Büyüköztürk et al., 2010a). Based on this data,
we can accept hypothesis H1.
Table 2 shows the results of a t-test analysis performed on independent groups to
identify the effect of the provision of course books apart from computer practice, on
academic success in package program education.
Table 2: The effect of course books
Course Books
N
X
S
Control Group
93
24.3434
44.2151 9
Experimental
Group
93
21.8996
64.1935 0
df
t
p
92
-5.7684 0,000
According to the results of the t-test, shown in Table 2, t(92) = -5.7684, p<0.05, and Cohen’s
d = 0.598. Therefore, we can say that the provision of course books has a statistically
significant effect on student success and this effect (Cohen’s d = 0.598) is moderate
(Büyüköztürk et al., 2010b). The experimental group was observed to have a higher rate of
success. Therefore, we can accept our hypothesis H2.
99
7. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
It has been shown that practice with programs outside of class hours and the provision
of a resource book increases the academic success of students receiving applied package
program education. Therefore, organizations providing package program education should
consider acquiring package program demos, course books and other additional teaching
materials for the use of students in order to increase student learning levels and success rates.
It is clear that the use of additional teaching materials increases the quality of instruction. A
high quality learning process will doubtlessly lead to a higher level of success. Educational
institutions may also consider the possibility of allowing students to log on to the campus
services from their home computers, in order to practice using package programs. Providing
the demo versions of package programs for students to install on their home computers may
also be an effective way to facilitate the learning process.
This study has examined the effects of the usage of course books and laboratory package
program use outside of class hours. Similar studies may be performed on the usage of other
teaching materials. In this study, we have not performed research regarding the permanency
of learning and this may be addressed by other researchers.
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Üniversitesi İletişim Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(3): 73-81.
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LEGACY of TURGUT ÖZAL and THE SUSTAİNABLE TRANSFORMATİON of
TURKEY with AK PARTY GOVERNMENTS
Erdoğan Selami, Acar Eray
Dumlupinar University, Kütahya, Turkey,
Abstract
Turgut Özal is one of the most important actors in the Turkish Political life. He made
fundamental changes in Turkey between 1983-1993 as a Prime Minister or President of
Turkish Republic. He not only tried to liberate Turkish economy but also political sphere.
Özal, especially focused on freedom of speech, freedom of belief and freedom of enterprise.
At the same time, the latest refers to the free market economy. Until Özal's period Turkish
political leaders applied the model of mixed economy, not free market economy, that is, the
structure of Turkish economy wasn't entegrate with global markets. İnitially, Özal changed it
and he started to set up export-oriented economic model, free interest rates, privatization,
etc... and then, made political reforms; like freedom of speaking the Kurdish language,
dissolution of 141, 142 and 163. articles of Turkish Ciriminal Code, application for full
membership to the European Union. Unfortunately, his succesors could not able to sustain his
revolutionary political and economic vision. İn this respect, 1990s can be considered as lost
years for the Turkey. Until AK Parti governments Turkey encountered deep economic and
political crises such as April 1994 and 28 February 1997. After from this miserable period,
with the AK Parti government Turkey returned to the Özal's reformist politics both politically
and economically. According to the arguments which are mentioned below, Özal's
transformation efforts will be examined from today's view. Besides, what are the main
characteristics of Özal and the AK Parti leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, can we say continuity
or divergence between them. İn Today's Turkey, what is the importance of Turgut Özal, can
we say that, Özal's ideas particularly in economic field-is being applied by the AK Parti
government.
Keywords: Özal, AK Parti, Free Market Economy, Economic Crises, Political Reforms,
Turkish Economy.
1.Turgut Özal And ANAP (Motherland Party)
Turkey encountered two important problems which were the political and economic crises in
the late of 1970s. 24 January 1980 Desicions (Özal architect of desicions), a series of
fundamental economic policy changes, couldn’t be carried out by the weak Demirel’s
minority government. These problems paved the way for the military intervention of Turkey
in September 12, 1980. The Junta came to power with overriding objectives, the first one was
to repress the political sphere by applying rigid measures against extremists and the second
objective was for economic restructuring (Boratav, 1998: 122 ; Topal, 2000: 122).The 1980
102
Military Coup in Turkey was an attempt by the General Kenan Evren and his friends who
were called NSC (National Security Council) to reshape the Turkish political system for the
sustainabledemocratic order. Forthat reason, some measures were implemented between
September Coup 1980 and November 1983 by the military government to reestablish the
Turkish political arena. The new constitution was approved by a referendum in 1982.
(Ergüder, 1991: 152). After that, İn order to regulate party formation and electoral system the
new Political Parties Lawand Electoral Law were enacted in April 1983. Also, It was decided
that, new general elections would be realized in November 1983.
On the other hand, the ruling military government did not want coalition government for the
stability of political sphere. To provide this target they introduced %10 election threshold
which was very high. Similarly, according to this aim, they thougt to allow only two political
parties to attend the 1983 General Elections, one of them is moderate-right MDP (Nationalist
Domocracy Party), the other is moderate-left HP (Populist Party). But, the powerful Generals
gave permission reluctanly Özal’s Party ANAP to enter into elections due to foreign pressure
(Akdoğan, 2001:88; Ahmad, 2007: 189-190). However, the junta supported his own party
(MDP) strongly. İndeed, President Evren had already made a television speech before the
elections, he clearly criticized Turgut Özal and his party (MP), favoured MDP. İn any case,
Evren’s speech didn’t contributeMDP, but it damaged.At the end, NSC allowed to compete
of the three political parties for the 6 November General Elections.
Duringthe elections campaing it was understood that, Özal was ready for government, he
was talking abuot the measures to recover corrupted (ruined) economy, economic
transformation, free market economy, also selling to the Bosphorus Bridge etc. On the other
hand, the other two leaders (Necdet Calp and Turgut Sunalp) couldn’t say concrete projects.
Especially, MDP was presenting itself as the reprasantative of 12 September Military
Coup.Unlike Özal’s political meetings, their meetings were not exciting to Turkish voters.
Morever, Özal and his party managed to present itself as a civilian force, the most competent
among other two parties to normalize Turkish democracy and economic system. At the same
time, Özal were using more civilian discourse, he meant that his party autonomous from the
military (Akdoğan, 2001: 88).
ANAP was advocating consensus and toleration in political sphere unlike MDP and HP.
According to Özal, economic problems could be resolvedonly by decisive and logical
methods. That is, he meant that their government could overcome these problems. Turkish
People believed him. Only Özal’s Party used positive discources and formulations, other
parties preferred to say state-oriented rhetoric (Özkazanç, 1996: 1221). At the same time,
conversation programmes on TRT (Turkish Radio and Television) contributed Özal’s
success. At these programmes Özal told his economic projects simply and clearly instead of
ideological issues, (Heper, 2011: 206). Özal persuaded Turkish People on economic issues
easily. And, ANAP was able to win the elections getting a little more votes than 45 percent
(%45.2) 211 deputies (400/211) in the Elections of November 1983 and come to the power
only by itself (one-party government).
1.1. Özal’s Governments and Economic Transformation of Turkey
103
The ideology of the ANAP was based on four different political views, nationalism,
conservatism, social justice, and market economy (ANAP programme, 1983). İn this respect,
Özal claimed that our party was the represantative of the whole society rather than a part of it.
Prime Minister Özal and his party acted carefully in order not to do an action to disturb the
soldiers (NSC), as it was transition government and comletely signed the desicions about the
economy can be seen. While noticing the conditions of that time, it is seen that this was a
logical preference. During those years Özal introduced himself as a calculating man by using
a rather moderate language and stressed on economical issues(Kalaycıoğlu, 2002: 46).
On the other hand, Özal accused the previous governments of being too closed in
international community and economy. According to him, Turkish politicians were hesitating
to be open to the international arena and attempting to built a wall around Turkey. İn this
context, closed society and closed economy meant an isoleted country. Özal aimed to
changed these closed policies (Topal, 2001: 40).The primacy aim of Özal was to make
structural changes in economy and to make the economy open to the out side (Kazdağlı
2003: 460) He eventually started to make his decisions into practice which he had planned
before. The major reforms of Özal roughly (Morgil, 1996: 104-105; Akad: 2000: 267).
-
He abolished “The Law of the Protection of the Value of Turkish Lira” that he had
come from the years of 1930.
The flexible exchange rate policy was started (It means no devaluation suddenly)
The control of prices was abolished (Black Market ended)
The importing limitations and quotas were almost completely abolished
Out of budget funds applications were established in order to get rid of the
bureaucratic formalities
Reduced beuraucracy for taking driver’s license and passport
Privatization efforts, the industrialization policies which are open to foreign
competition and the encouragement of the industrial and service investments.
Özal is usually remembered for his infrastructural projects that he had made for supporting
the investments. For instance, Fatih Sultan Mehmed Bridge (2.Bosphorus Bridge), Atatürk
Dam, highways, roads, harbours, airports, the commonization of the telephone networks of
the villages are appearing at the first sight for evaluating in this respect. İn the different
centres of Anatolia (Denizli, Konya, Kayseri etc.) the firms which were called as “Anatolian
Tigers” were able to exist by means of incentives that Özal had given (Öniş, 2000: 289).
By means of Özal’s radical economical transformations which we have counted above, the
import-substitution period in Turkish economy finished, an economical model that is exportoriented had been started with Özal (Çalık, 1992: 6). Thanks to these reforms, it wasn’t
anymore guilt to have foreing currency or foreign cigarettes in your pocket in Turkey. Also,
The absences of goods and queues of goods were no longer problems though they had been
very common before 12th September. Özal said that we souldn’t be afraid of making
competition with the World and gave to importance to the freedom of enterprising. İnstead of
being afraid globalisation, Özal made it stress that it was an oppurtunity for us. He often went
to on journeys abroad by making his plane full of businessman. İn his opinion, our age was
an age of individuals’, freedoms and oppurtunities. İn this context, ANAP governments gave
104
incentives to the businessmans in every field, for that reason, big success were realized in
private sector, e.g tourism(Kazdağlı, 1996: 100). Besides successful enterprisers emerged in
all the parts of Anatolia. They started to export different goods to all around the World.
Between the years 1983-1989 in which Özal was ruling the country, the average growth rate
in a year in Turkey was more than 5 percent. Again in this period the export of Turkey had
been increased up to 350 percent (Öniş, 2000: 289). On the other side, the economic crises
that Turkey was used to, were not seen in Özal’s period. However didn’t only apply policies
based on economy, but he also wanted to entegrate the economical liberalism with the
political liberalism in the following period. We realize that serious steps were made in his
time in the field of democratization.
1.2. Özal and Democratization
Özal is generally accused of giving importance and first side to the liberalization in economy
rather than not making a serious liberalization in political field. When Özal started to rule the
country in 1983, the guardianship of the soldiers (NSC) was still continuing. Whether Özal
wanted political liberalization or not, there wasn’t a possibility for this in those times. The
sings of political liberalization can be seen from the year 1987. Later, when we look at his
reforms during his being the President of Republic (1989-1993), we can say that the political
liberalization was at the top. His most common reforms are the followings (Dağı, 2003: 249269; Acar, 2008: 202; Özbudun, 2003: 110, Barlas, 1994: 287):
-
-
İndividual application right to the European Human Rights Commission was given to
the Turkish citizens (1987)
Turkey made its application for being a full membership of the European
Union(1987)
The authority of the European Court of Justice was started to be accepted
The European and United Nations convention was accepted against torture
The 141st, 142nd, and 163rd articles of Turkish Criminal Code (TCK) which
prohibited the socialist and the islamic views, were abolished by the personal efforts
of Özal in April, 1991
He was the main actor in abolishing the prohibition of speaking in Kurdish
Turkey signed The European Social Charter and The Charter of Paris
On the other side, Özal signed some critical events that decreased the influence of the soldiers
and increased and showed the strength of the civilian rulers. İn 1987, he opposed to the
chosing of the General Staff without being asked to him and he appointed the person he
preferred as the General Staff (Necip Torumtay), not the one who was dictated to him
(Necdet Öztorun). Moreover, he checked a military force with his bermuda short (Heper,
2011: 223).
But the most important of all, he always underlined three freedoms througout his career:
105
The Freedom of Thougt
-
The Freedom of Religion and Conscience
The Freedom of Enterprise
İn fact, the political philosophy of Özal is hidden in these three sentences. However, Özal had
given importance mostly to the economic liberalism in his first ruling period (1983-1987) as
the military guardianship was going on, but, especially when he was the president, he was
able to make fundamental reforms in the field of democratization, he signed many important
progressions.
2. Stagnation Period of Turkey (1990s)
The coalition governments period started again in Turkey from 1991. The years of 1990s
were the years of economical and political crises with the coalition governments (1994etc.)
On account of the short lasting governments, political chaoses were always lived through.
Worse than this, 28th. February 1997 Post-modern Coup was realized. Turkey lost its
reformative identity in this period, failed the improvments througout the World as it was
struggling with the artificial problems inside the country, its macroeconomic balances were
damaged, its banks were robbed etc. On the other hand, the military and civilian bureaucracy
intervened in every part of public life. Also, elected governments and politicians were
threatened. That’s why the years of 1990s are called as the years in which Turkey went back
in economic and political liberalism. Nevertless, the most positive thing in this period was
that achieving the full membership status to the European Union in 1999.
3.The Governing of AK Party and Restarting of Transformation Period
As the DSP-MHP-ANAP Coalition Government took the country towards financial crises
and was unsuccesful at solving the problem of corruption, it carried the AK Party to the
government in the November 2002 Elections. İt was unsuspicious that the success that the
politicians working at AK Party had shown at the municipalities and except from this, the
KOBİs’ and the bourgeoise of Anatolian’s support was effective in this success (Öniş, 2010:
259). Two parties got the right to enter to TBMM after the elections. AK Party and CHP. AK
Party became the governing party. İn fact, AK Party came to the government after a similar
period of ANAP. Because ANAP had also come to the government as a result of a very deep
economical and political crises. Undoubtedly, a charismatic leader (Erdoğan) played an
important role in the success of AK Party as it had been like in ANAP (Özal).
AK Party promised that it would do reforms in the field of economics, in addition to this, it
would get rid of the problem of basic rights and freedoms. At the same time, AK Party
preferred to make stress on economical issues and European Union process insistently instead
106
of classical ideological polarizations. People showed their support to AK Party’s liberal
policies in the 2002 elections (Altun, 2009:4).
4.AK Party Governments and Re-transformation of The Turkish Economy
Turkey regained its reformative identity that it had lost in the 1990 years with AK Party. The
Party stayed loyal to the free market economy and which had been started by Özal in the
period that was after 1980. İn addition to this, Erdogan declared the loyality to European
Union Process. İt started to apply the targets that it had put forward with patience in 2002
November after it came to government despite some political disadvantages (soldiers and
civilian bureaucracy). Erdogan’s Party also started to work intensely in many fields like
education, healt, building, transportation and others (Koç, 2011).
Besides, it stayed faithful to the IMF agreement that the former government had signed. By
means of successful financial discipline and decisive economical reforms, AK Party has
signed a lot of successes. Undoubtedly the European Union process has been one of the most
important supporting factors to achieve these successes (Öniş, 2010: 269). Once AK Party
became the government, it gave too much importance to this process, at the same time, by
means of this process it strengthened its legitimacy. İt should be pointed that the IMF criteria
are important about decreasing the inflation and net debt amount. The records of Republic
History has been achieved again in this period in the flow of foreing capital (Altun, 2009:
19).
Likewise it had been in ANAP’s (Özal’s period), big successes have been achieved in
national income and export during AK Party government. İf we look at these rougly
(www.tüik.gov.tr)
-
The export which has been 36 billion$ in 2002 increased to 134 billion$ in 2011
National income which was 230 billion$ in 2002 increased to 735 billion$ in 2011
The record was done in privatization between 2003-2011 (TÜPRAŞ. etc) 34 billion$
İf we look at the results in other fields in order to undertand the dimensions of the
transformation in Turkey (www.akparti.org.tr) :
-
Turkey has been introduced with High Speed Train
13.500 kilometres doubled-road has been built
TOKİ has been built about 500.000 flats
Service has been carried even to the farthest villages with the KOYDES and BELDES
projects
There hasn’t been any city without a university
Six zeros have been abolished for Turkish Liras
On the other hand, Likewise Özal The Prime Minister Erdoğan took the businessman with
him abroad so as to increase the trade. He abolished the vizas with a lot of countries. İn
addition to these the number of turists coming to Turkey has increased to 32 million from 13
107
million in 2011 (www.dha.com.tr). Accordding to these datas, It is clear that Erdogan’s Party
is developing to Turkey successfully, for that reason a large majority of Turkish voters
support his party increasingly.
5. Democratization and AK Party
AK Party had given the signals that it would make democratization steps from the time it
came to the government. The Prime Minister of that period, Abdullah Gül, stressed in his
speech of İCO’s Tahran Summit in May 2003 that the Muslim Countries had needed to care
more about the democratization, human and women rights (Duran, 2010: 341).
İn the following period, it could be seen that AK Party government was much sincere about
this subject by the motivation of European Union as well. İf we have to make notice to the
most known reforms (Dağı, 2010: 132-140; Koç, 2011: 15-20, Altun, 2009: 15;
www.akparti.org.tr).
-
-
The applications of state of emercency was abolished
The closing of political parties have been made difficult
State Security Courts were abolished
The Law of Getting İnformation has been enacted
The political propaganda with an other language (Kurdish) than Turkish has been
abolished
Broadcasting in Kurdish has been made free for private TV and radios. 24 hour
Kurdish broadcasting has been started in TRT 6.
İt has been allowed to established Kurdish Language and Literature Departments and
İnstitutions at Universities.
National Unification and Brotherhood Projects have been started
A lot of workshops about Alevi Problem has been done
On the 12th September, 2010, a large change of Constitution which decreased the
influence of the military in politics and brought a positive discrimination to the
women and children has been adopted.
On the 27th April, 2007, the civilian ruling (AK Party) has objected to the ememorandum, which was broadcasted in the internet by the General Staff, but AK
Party refused this memorandum and declared counter-memorandum in 28 April 2007
unexpectedly.
The success of AK Party both in the field of economy and its democratic standing has been
appreciated by the Turkish public. AK Party has achieved an effective success by increasing
its votes in the 3 general elections that followed one other.
On the other hand, in 1990s influence of the military was very high in political sphere, but
with AK Party governments, İt changed. When we look at the relationship between soldiers
and AK Party, Tayyip Erdoğan has signed a cautious reform without damagining and
destroying, by thinking the institutional reputation of TSK (Turkish Military Forces) (Aydın,
108
2012: 4). İn a new period Turkey has entered, the Generals have been giving applications for
retirement instead of memorandum now (İdiz, 2011: 17). Then, Turkey has been normalizing.
REFERENCES
Alev Özkazanç, “Türkiye’de Yeni Sağ”Cumhuriyet Dönemi Türkiye Ansiklopedisi, C.15,
İletişim Yayınları, 1996: Ankara
ANAP Programı (1983)
Argun Akdoğan, Mapping Özal New Hegemonic Project, Doktora Tezi, ODTÜ, 2001:
Ankara
Asaf Savaş Akad, “The Political Economy of Turkish İnflation”, Journal of İnterntional
Affairs, V.54, 2000
Aylin Topal, The New Right and Özalizm, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Bilkent, 2000: Ankara
Burhanettin Duran, “AKP ve Dönüşümün Aracı Olarak Politika”, H.Yavuz (Editor), AK Parti
ve Toplumsal Değişimin Yeni Aktörleri, Kitap Yayınevi, 2010: İstanbul
Celal Kazdağlı, “Turgut Özal’ın İktisadi Reformları”, İ.Sezal, İ.Dağı (Editoryal), Kim Bu
Özal?, Boyut Kitapları, 2003: İstanbul
Ergun Özbudun, “Özal ve Demokratikleşme”, İ.Sezal (Editör), Devlet ve Siyaset Adamı
Turgut Özal, 20 Mayıs Vakfı, 1996: İstanbul
Ersin Kalaycıoğlu, “The Motherland Party: The Challange of İnstitutionalization in a
Charismatic Leader Party” M.Heper, B.Rubin (Editoryal), Political Parties in Turkey, Frank
Cass Pub., 2002: Londra
Ertan Aydın, “Erdoğan’ın uzlaştırıcı reformizmi” Star Gazetesi Açık Görüş, 26.02.2012
Fahrettin Altun, “12 Eylül’den 12 Haziran’a Siyasi Partiler, AK PARTİ”, Seta Analiz, S.41,
2011: Ankara
Feride Acar, “Turgut Özal” (Çev: Zuhal Bilgin), M.Heper, S.Sayarı (Editoryal), Türkiye’de
Liderler ve Demokrasi, Kitap Yayınevi, 2008: İstanbul
109
Feroz Ahmad, Bir Kimlik Peşinde Türkiye, Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, 2007: İstanbul
İhsan Dağı, “Kimlik Siyaset ve İnsan Hakları Söylemi”, H.Yavuz (Editör), AK Parti ve
Toplumsal Değişimin Yeni Aktörleri, Kitap Yayınevi, 2010: İstanbul
Korkut Boratav, Türkiye İktisat Tarihi, 1908-1985, Gerçek Yayınevi 1998: İstanbul
Mehmet Barlas, Turgut Özal’ın Anıları, Sabah Kitapları, 1994: İstanbul
Metin Heper, Türkiye’nin Siyasal Hayatı,Doğan Kitap, 2011: İstanbul
Mustafa Çalık, “Özal: Türkiye’nin Önünde Hacet Kapıları Açılmıştır”, Türkiye Günlüğü,
sayı.19, 1992
Orhan Morgil, “Turgut Özal ve Ekonomi Politikaları”, İ.Sezal (Editor), Devlet ve Siyaset
Adamı Turgut Özal, 20 Mayıs Vakfı, 1996: İstanbul
Semih İdiz,“Muhtıra Değil Emeklilik Dilekçesi Veriliyor” Milliyet Gazetesi, 01.08.2011
Üstün Ergüder, “The Motherland Party (ANAP) 1983-1989” M.Heper, J.Landau (Editoryal),
Political Parties and Democracy in Turkey, I.B.Tauris Publishers, New York and London:
1991.
Yusuf Ziya Öniş, “Neo-Liberal Globalization and the Democracy Paradox: The Turkish
General Elections of 1999” Journal of İnternational Affairs, V.54, Fall 2000
Yusuf Ziya Öniş, “Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi’nin Ekonomi-Politiği”, H.Yavuz (Editör), AK
Parti Toplumsal Değişimin Yeni Aktörleri, Kitap Yayınevi, 2010: İstanbul
Yaşar Taşkın Koç, “Değişim ve Statüko Kıskacında Ak Parti”, Seta Analiz, S.6, 2009:
Ankara
www.dha.com.tr
www.akparti.org.tr
www.tüik.gov.tr
110
An Evaluation Of Regional Development Agencies’ Roles In Regard To Social
Sustainability: A Disscussion Of Turkish Development Agencies’ Experience
Mustafa Ökmen1, Buğra Özer1, Vedat Bal2
1Celal Bayar University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of
2Celal Bayar University, School of Applied Sciences, Department of International Trade, ,
Manisa, Turkey
Abstract
This study focuses on the nexus between social sustainability and regional and local
development. In handling the issue in question, the work proposes to focus on the role played
by regional development agencies in facilitating social sustainability. The study will facilitate
the discussion by reviewing the Turkish experience in regional development by reviewing
Turkish regional development agencies’ legacy that came on the Turkish regional
development discussions in the mid of the very first decade of 2000s. The attempt will be to
demonstrate that Turkish RDAs cannot handle mechanisms to deal with problems that appear
at social and environmental levels of the notion of social sustainable development.
1. INTRODUCTION
This study shall dwell on the nexus between social sustainability and regional and local
development. In dealing with the issue in question, the work proposes to focus on the role
played by regional development agencies in facilitating social sustainability. The study will
facilitate the discussion by reviewing the Turkish experience in regional development by
reviewing Turkish regional development agencies’ legacy that came on the Turkish regional
development discussions in the mid of the very first decade of 2000s.
Given the prospect of full membership of Turkey to the European Union and related never
ending accession talks and negotiations with the Union(Öniş, 2000, Öniş 2003), regional
development agencies assumed to bring a wide array of remedies to the ongoing important
problems in regard to the regional economic and social disparities embedded in the Turkish
politico-economic setting (Reeves,2005). In such respect, the scale of regional disparities
between the different parts of Turkey has posed itself as a significant problematization in a
wider dimension than that of the scale of regional disparities in the EU (Sungar,2005).
Given the challenge, regional development agencies have been primary actors to deal with
the disparities mostly emerging in economic dimension while Turkey in terms of
geographical size encompasses an area bigger than that of Germany, Italy and Portugal
combined, with an approximating population of seventy-five million (LoewendahlErtugal,2005). Despite the fact that most regional development related institutions and
programs came to be inextricably linked to the economic development disparities first and
foremost, not adequate attention has been paid to the social sustainability dimension of
problems (Gibbs,2010). In this respect, the proposed study will problematize respectively:
111
On theoretical terms the link between regional development and the notion of social
sustainability how the economic, social and economic dimensions of economic development
may be integrated in a single approach of regional development.
What the Turkish regional development agencies’ experiences have been on the way to create
a national regional development policy while maintaining ties to the EU accession talks,
thereby setting linkages to the Union’s regional development policies.
How the Turkish Regional development agencies have devised mechanisms to integrate
social sustainability schemes to the regional development policies.
Following the juxtaposition of research problematizations, the intended study aims to fill in
some gaps. Although there exists a bulk of literature on regional and local development in the
context of the EU; the lack of research on the link of regional development agencies to social
sustainability schemes in the case of Turkey is striking. In such regard, one other effort of the
paper is to contribute towards filling the gap in research literature on regional development in
relation to social sustainability in Turkey.
2. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES (RDAs) AND SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT NOTIONS IN GENERAL PESPECTIVE
2.1.Rationales for RDAs and Regional Policies
In an era of major restructuring and retrenchment of government internationally, RDAs
assume to play essentially important roles in facilitating and promoting economic
development (Halkier and Danson, 1997). As understood from the dimension, the economic
role of RDAs has been the pillar characteristic of the raison d’être of the organizations
(Danson et al., 2005, Pike et al., 2006). A standard academic definition shall also interlink the
role of RDAs to the notion of public policy by stating that RDA is “a regionally based,
publicly financed institution outside the mainstream of central and local government
administration designed to promote indigenous economic development through an integrated
use of predominantly ‘soft’ policy instruments.” (Halkier and Danson, 1997). Then the basic
components of such definition will emphasize the semiautonomous characteristic of RDAs
functioning in a multifunctional and integrated manner. (Halkier, 2011, Halkier etal 1998)
Accordingly, RDAs are given the task of supporting economic development through soft
policy means. The soft policy means may stand on a wide array of alternatives ranging from
the provision of advice to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to inducing
networking and learning(Halkier et al., 1998) Lagendijk etal emphasize that such a softpolicy-means perspective implies a strategic point view that RDAs shall “bridge the gap
between regional economic policy and other fields of policy that impact upon regional
development, building on their capacity to collectivize local interests” (Lagendijk,2009).
The importance of RDAs comes from three factors. First and foremost, RDAs develop a
platform for public policy that will have proximate links to the private enterprise along with a
sound distance that will avoid the abuse that might possibly come from the individual
enterprises and local political interests (Benneworth,2001). Secondly, RDAs are alternative
bureaucratic bodies more closely related to private enterprises in terms of facilitation of
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regional development, offering a shelter from day to day political pressures and providing a
more strategic approach to the issue of regional development in the long run. These two
factors bring forth a third repercussion that RDAs become more suitable actors involved in
regional policy under the EU Jurisdiction, namely, European Structural Funds. As Halkier
notes, “and as the importance of the European level in regional development has increased
significantly since the late 1980s, the growing role of RDAs in and beyond the current
borders of the EU undoubtedly owes a lot to the adoption of a long-term programming
approach within the Structural Funds.” (Halkier, 2011)
In terms of regional policy paradigms, the pre-1990s regional policies were designed in a topdown style, that is to say , the basic rationale of regional policy was to “to promote equality
between regions by redistributing economic activity to problem areas by means of a system
of ‘carrots’ and ‘sticks’, primarily relying on ‘hard’ policy instruments such as infrastructure
and financial subsidies in order to boost economic hardware in the designated regions
through increased investment” (Halkier, 2011). In terms of organization, the developmental
era emphasized the need to nationally designate programs via different bureaucratic
departments (Danson et al, 2005). The top-down design of regional policy signified the
redistribution of growth, thereby increasing economic hardware through ‘hard’ resources by
policy instruments which were non-selective and reactive in terms of their nature
(Halkier,2011).
In the post-1990s setting, the making of regional policies has significantly changed. First and
foremost, RDAs were designates as semi-autonomous bodies which contributed to the
juxtaposition of regional based targets (Halkier,2011). Individual regions became the basic
unit of analyses rather than nationally-designated units. The rationale behind top-bottom
regional policy has not changed in its essential sense and rather remained economic as the
approach principally aimed to deal with competitiveness of individual firms of localities. The
basic means for public policy became ‘soft’ policy instruments such as advice, networks. In
such regard, RDAs became training units which added up to improving economically
relevant knowledge (software) and knowledge exchange (orgware).Moreover, within the
bottom-up approach responsibility became selective and proactive (Halkier,2011).
2.2.Sustainable Development and RDAs
Despite the economic-centric definition of RDAs and regional policy, there is an increasing
awareness of sustainable development notion at the policy level. By 2000s, sustainable
development notions have been more and more incorporated into the concerns of spatial
scales in terms of mediation of objectives and economic development and other concerns of
sustainable development (Shearlock etal,2000).
A bulk of literature exists on sustainable development, defining the term as development
that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their needs.” (Shearlock etal,2000)Therefore the term has a long-term vision for society
along with the short term horizons which add up to long-term objectives. Sustainable
development as a term integrates various dimensions of human action starting from the local
level to the global level. In such regard sustainable development has a different set of
objectives inclusive of the improvement of the quality of life of both current and future
generations, while safeguarding the earth’s capacity to support life in all its diversity;
promotion of high levels of employment in an economy whose strength is based on
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education, innovation, social and territorial cohesion and the protection of human health and
the environment and Notion of its grounds and emphasis on democracy, the rule of law and
respect for fundamental rights including freedom, equal opportunities and cultural diversity
(Gibson,2010).
Economic, social and environmental dimensions are the basic pillars of sustainable
development. It is rather a process that facilitates “improvement of the range of opportunities
facilitating individual human beings and communities to meet their needs, as well as to
achieve their aspirations and full potential over a sustained period of time, while maintaining
the resilience of economic, social and environmental systems ” (Shearlock etal,2000). There
exist distinct driving forces and objectives for each domain As the economy domain strives to
improve human welfare, primarily through increases in the consumption of goods and
services, the main focus of the environmental domain is on protection of the integrity and
resilience of ecological systems (Gibson,2010). The social domains underline the need for the
enrichment of human relationships and achievement of individual and group aspirations.
Sustainable development becomes the basic object
of programs with continuous
improvements in the present quality of life at a lower intensity of resource use, thereby
leaving behind for future generations an undiminished stock of productive assets (i.e.,
manufactured, natural and social capital) that will enhance opportunities for improving their
quality of life (Gibson,2010; Shearlock,2000).
Given the basic perspective drawn above, regional policy schemes have not been able to take
general approaches that shall integrate the social and environmental domains of sustainable
development. Most regional policies devised RDAs in a novel way that would embrace
bottom to up approaches; however RDAs lacked means to integrate social and environmental
domains. Most environmental policies devised by RDAs globally suffered from the same set
of problems. In spite of European and global recognition of Sustainable Development
throughout the 1980s, many concrete projects were far away from dealing with the problem
that emerged at social and environmental levels. As Straaten et al (1999)observe in his
discussion of environmental policies throughout the EU, “the principle of sustainable
development does not alter this situation. On the contrary, all polluting industries accept the
principle of sustainable development as a starting point for the national economy. However,
as soon as the pollution in their sector is discussed, they use strong arguments based on
traditional economic theories. The government is then always in the difficult position of
having to demonstrate that the implementation of strict environmental standards will benefit
the economy. In many cases they are not able to do this. The situation is also complicated in
the case of transboundary pollution. The traditional interests of the polluting industries in
some countries may be contrasted with the interests of countries suffering from pollution”
(Straaten et al,1999). Indeed, the RDAs as alternative bodies that could spread the word of
sustainable development could not penetrate through mechanisms that would supposedly
produce solutions at environmental level and social levels. Here one should note that
problems of social domain of sustainable devlopment can not become substantial concerns
fror RDAs. In particular, cultural integration and social participation, as two important
problems in the EU integration region did not constitute as significant problems that required
immediate remedies.
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3. Turkish RDAs in Perspective
By mid 2000s Turkey entered a new phase in which the country witnessed the making of a
great of number of RDAs thanks to the Europeanization of regional governance policies. In
such respect Turkish RDAs nurtured in a setting of European Union and central government
funding (Kayasü etal 2003, Sungar,2005, Loewendahl-Ertugal2005). By 2012, Turkey
established 26 ‘statistical regions’ at the NUTS-II level, which group together Turkey’s 81
provinces. In this context RDAs are supposed to play a critical role in mobilizing support and
funding for regional development projects. As Lagendjik (2011) observes, RDAs are
potentially apt to become strategically important organizations strengthening regional forms
of governance and regional socio-economic development. In the Turkish case, RDAs become
centers for consultancies for the European funding. In such regard Turkish RDAs become
highly absorbed in a tension of, as Lagendjik observes at the European level, “ ‘high politics’
and the necessity to embed themselves in a particular local institutional and business setting”
(Lagendjik, 2009). While facing ‘top-down’ political-strategic and bureaucratic obligations,
Turkish RDAs are obliged to respond to local demands in terms of governance (partnering,
strategy development), economic intelligence, and business needs in a state of institutionally
and politically conditioned and circumscribed priorities (Reeves,2005).
In terms of integrating the social sustainability dimension, Turkish RDAs have a long way to
cover. The main objectives of RDAs still stay at a level of economic domain of sustainable
development notion. It should also be noted that given the short life spans of Turkish RDAs,
it may be too early to carry out an assessment. However, given the path of development of
Turkish RDAs, these institutions should find ways to integrate social sustainable
development notions into their developmental projects. The economic-centered emphasis in
Turkish RDAs , thus, remains an important concern to which more attention should be paid.
4. CONCLUDING REMARKS
In light of short life span of Turkish RDAs, social and environmental concerns are not
important references for regional governance policies. It can definitely be argued that the
sustainable development can be used as a policy-making principle for the Turkish RDAs.
Until now, the notion of sustainable development has not been well operationally defined due
to the difficulties arising in RDAs’ insistence in shortcomings of economic-centered
definition of regional governance policies. Although Turkish RDAs mention about the term
‘sustainable development’, there is not much materialized in terms of concrete policies
pursued by these institutions. Therefore sustainable development should be the basic
reference point in particular for the social and environmental concerns. Most of these
concerns ‘objectives are to be realized in the long-run. In such regard, it is required that
Turkish RDAs become more and more absorbed in the formation of a coherent environmental
and social policy with the European regional policies.
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Bilen, G. (2005) Novel Regional Policy of Turkey in Line with EU Standards. Development
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Danson, M.W. and Whittam, G. (1999) RegionalGovernance, Institutions and Development,’
inS. Loveridge (ed.) The Web Book of Regional Science. Morgantown: Regional Research
Institute, West Virginia University.
De Bruijn, P. and Lagendijk, A. (2005) ‘Regional Innovation Systems in the Lisbon
Strategy’, European Planning Studies 13: 1153–72.
Gibbs, D. (2010) “ Regional development agencies andsustainable development” Regional
Studies, Vol. 32.4, pp. 365-381
Danson, M., Helinska-Hughes, E. & Hughes, M. (2005) 'RDAs and Benchmarking: Learning
from Good Practice when the Model has Broken', Public Policy and Administration, 20, 4-22
Halkier, Henrik, (2011) Regional Development Agencies: European Trends and Experiences.
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Halkier, H., Danson, M. & Damborg, C. (Eds.) (1998) Regional Development Agencies in
Europe, London, Jessica Kingsley Publishers.
Kayasü, S., Pınarcıoğlu, M., Yaşar, S. S. and Dere, S. (2003) “Local/Regional Economic
Development and Competitive Capacity: Regional Development Agencies”,
İstanbulChamber of Commerce, Publication No: 2003-8.
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Elgar.
Köhn, J. Gowdy, J. Hinterberger, F. van der Straaten, J. 1999. Sustainability in Question
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Lagendijk, A. (2005) ‘Regionalisation in Europe. Stories, Institutions and Boundaries’, in H.
VanHoutum,O. Kramsch and W. Zierhofer (eds), Bordering Space, pp. 77–92. London:
Routledge.
Lagendijk, A. Etal (2009) “The Role of Regional Development Agencies in Turkey from
Implementing EU Directives to Supporting Bussiness Communities” European Urban and
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Comparison Study of Approaches to Measuring Poverty Implementing Fuzzy Set and
Classic Set Using The Household Data of Turkey
Alparslan Abdurrahman Basaran1, Murat Alper Basaran2
1Hacettepe University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of
Public Finance, 06800, Ankara, Turkey
2Akdeniz University, Faculty of Engineering, Management Engineering Department,
07425,Alanya, Turkey
Abstract
Poverty is one of the issues several industrialized and developing countries encounter in the
world. No country is exempt from this problem and its consequences. The top list item of the
agendas of both countries and international agencies is related to diminishing poverty. Before
taking action against it, countries and agencies need to measure poverty based on collected
data. It is a sophisticated issue having several dimensions. So far measuring it with available
data has resulted with indicators which show some deficiencies. When poverty is considered,
it is a linguistic term and has a vague concept as mentioned in the theory of fuzzy set.
Therefore, a new approach is proposed in the literature to examine it in order to overcome
those deficiencies mentioned when classic tools are employed. On the other hand, fuzzy set
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theory is a mathematical tool used for linguistic calculations. For example, when said that
income level is low. Actually everybody knows what it means. But what it means changes
depending upon the perception of the person. Therefore, measuring low income is a
problematic area. Fuzzy set theory enables practitioners to calculate those linguistic terms. In
this study, the household data of Turkey of the year 2003 collected annually based on almost
25000 is used to calculate both classic poverty indicator(s) and fuzzy poverty indicator in
order to compare those measures. In the end we will show that fuzzy poverty indicator can be
comprehensive in some comparisons. Also, it provides more information in terms of
understanding the concept of poverty
Keywords: Poverty, fuzzy set, fuzzy index, Sustainable development
1. INTRODUCTION
In the past few decades the measurement of poverty traditionally took place by determining
whether an individual or a household could be classified as poor depending on whether their
income or expenditure was above or below a specific value, the poverty line. In the
measurement of poverty, after determining concrete poverty line the next step is to select
available indices which shows the fraction in the total population, the intensity of poverty and
the degree of inequality among the poor called such as respectively the head count, poverty
gap and the severity of poverty index. Contrary to these classical approaches, there is a
considerable and growing both theoretical and empirical, on the multi-dimensional measures
of poverty. According to this approach poverty is a complex and vague phenomenon to
separate the population poor and non poor. (Cerioli & Zani, 1990) criticized the vagueness
concept of income and proposed a multi dimensional measure of poverty using fuzzy
set theory to evaluate living conditions in Italian county. (Cheli & Lemmi, 1995)
enhanced the fuzzy concept method, called Totally Fuzzy and Relative (TFR), by deriving
deprivation indices directly from the distribution function. According to (Bantilan, Bantilan
& Castro, 1992) the theory of fuzzy set provides a new approach to the use of traditional
economic variables such as income or expenditure to derive new measures of poverty.
Moreover the approach can readily make use of the extensive information contained in the set
of standard of living indicators. (Miceli, 1998) assess living conditions in Switzerland
following (Cerioli & Zani, 1990) multi dimensional fuzzy measure of poverty. In this paper,
in the light of technique suggested by (Cerioli & Zani, 1990) and (Miceli, 1998), fuzzy index
poverty is calculated for Turkey from the household survey conducted in 2003 (The State
Institute of Statistic of The Republic of Turkey, Households Survey, 2003). Also, classic set
theory, which is used in the calculation of regular poverty measures, is employed to calculate
classic poverty measure to compare the fuzzy one with classic poverty measure.
2. Background
Fuzzy set theory first was introduced by (Zadeh, 1965). Since then it has been widely
employed in many disciplines where the data are imprecise. In the classic set theory, an
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object is either a member of a set which is defined by sharp boundaries or not. This implies a
certain membership. However, in the fuzzy set theory, an object is a member of a set with a
degree of membership taking values from the interval [0 1]. In the classic set theory, an
ordinary subset A of a set U is determined by its indicator function, or characteristic function
defined by
(1)
The indicator function of a subset A of a set U specifies whether or not an element is in A.
There are only two possible values the indicator function can take. However, in fuzzy set
theory, any element belonging to a given fuzzy subset A of set U takes a value between 0 and
1 depending on its compatibility with this set. A fuzzy set A of set U is a set whose elements
are ordered pairs which are shown as follows:
(2)
where x is a generic element of U and μ (x) is called the degree of membership of x in the
fuzzy set A. Actually fuzzy set A of set U is a function from U → [0,1]. Also any fuzzy
subset V is a function. In the fuzzy set terminology µ is called membership function with the
defined domain which means that the function which will be defined according to some data
or some linguistic term, for example poverty, is specified by the experts. For a fuzzy set
:
U → [0,1], the function A is called membership function. Instead of A, μ is used as a
membership function throughout the paper. For a fuzzy concept, different functions A can be
considered. The choice of the function A is subjective and context dependent. For example,
“young” is a fuzzy concept and can be defined as follows:
(3)
where 40 and 25 are upper bound and lower bound respectively and x is generic term for the
fuzzy set “young”. It is easily verified that this membership function can take various values
between [0,1]depending on values of x . With this background information, poverty which is
a fuzzy term can be modeled by fuzzy set theory. The classic approach draws a line called
poverty line separating poor and non-poor. But this is not really helpful in differentiating the
difference between a person or a household just above the poverty line and other person or
household just below the poverty line in terms of understanding who is in fact poor or nonpoor. We are not saying that classic approaches are useless but they have deficiencies and
fuzzy set theory might provide remedies for them. Instead of classic approaches, in this paper
fuzzy index of poverty is employed for the data which are gathered by the Survey of
Households conducted by The State Institute of Statistics of The Republic of Turkey in 2003.
119
As mentioned in the related literature, poverty is a multidimensional structure and requires to
combine different kinds of data. These data include continuous and categorical variables,
which are dichotomic and polytomic. In searching one index measuring poverty, both
categoric and continuous variables are generally employed and incorporated. This causes
problems both in interpretation and calculation.
3. Fuzzy Index of Poverty
Instead of classic approaches, in this paper fuzzy index of poverty is employed for the data
which are gathered by the Survey of Households conducted by The State Institute of Statistics
of The Republic of Turkey in 2003. Instead of making composite index which consists of
both categoric and continuous indicators, only continuous variables are selected. In fuzzy set
theory, fuzzifying is very useful means that help calculations much easier. The four variables,
which are annual disposable income, food expenditures, cloth and footwear expenditures, and
habitable area of the apartment, in this study are continuous. To calculate fuzzy index of
poverty, the first step is to fuzzify variables. Half of the median of the distribution is set to
minimum and twice the median of the distribution is set to maximum [4]. Half of the median
as a minimum is used to calculate the relative poverty of income by World Bank [6]. Twice
of median as maximum is used in the paper written by [4]. These lower and upper bounds are
adopted for all the four fuzzy indicators due to the fact that 25000 households have many
outlier cases and median is a robust statistic. The membership function used in calculating
degree of poverty of households is given as follows:
=
(4)
where i, j denote persons belonging to poor set (i= 1, 2,...,n) and indicators (j=1,...,k)
respectively and max min u ,u denote twice median and half median values of the distribution
respectively. In our study there are 25000 households and 4 indicators. Based on the
membership function above, the persons between lower bound and upper bound are thought
to be poor with different fuzzy grades in terms of four indicators. First indicator is calculated
based on income variable, second one is for food expenditure variable; third one is for
clothing and footwear expenditure variable and the final one is for habitable area variable.
For example,
0.6 which is that the subscript of 23 denotes second person in the
third indicator which means food expenditures with fuzzy grade 0.6. After calculating
indicators, it is crucial to combine these indicators in a sensible way to obtain a single
indicator that provides information about the deprivation of the households. In the literature,
there are many proposed ways of combining indicators to obtain a single indicator measuring
deprivation of households, for example, weights can be given by experts or some calculations
are made based on the proportion of poor in the population in terms of the given indicator.
Here the method used in [4] is employed to calculate the weights. The weights have to satisfy
some conditions:
120
and
(5)
In order to find the weights used in the calculation of fuzzy poverty index, the formula below
is employed.
(6)
where
denotes the fuzzy proportion of the poor persons according to indicator
Weights related to indicators are given in Table 2. Then the indicator that measures
poverty can be calculated as follows:
(7)
The last step to obtain fuzzy index of poverty is to find a way of incorporating indicators. In
the literature, fuzzy index of poverty is derived as follows:
(8)
However, this is the case when the samples for all indicators are equal. In our calculations
samples are not equal size so each corresponding mean for the indicator is calculated then
mean of the means are derived based on the formula in (8).
4. EMPIRICAL STUDY AND CONCLUSION
In this paper fuzzy index of poverty is calculated for the data which are gathered by the
Survey of Households conducted by The State Institute of Statistics of The Republic of
Tukey in 2003. There exist issues in both calculation and interpretation when both categoric
and continuous variables are taken into account in measuring poverty in a single indicator.
Therefore only continuous variables are employed when calculating fuzzy index of poverty.
Based on the calculations, all information is summarized in Table 1.
121
Table 1
Disposable Income
0.2219
Food Expenditure
0.2383
Clothe Expenditure
0.1219
Habitable Area
0.1843
FIP
0.1917
Table 2 Weights
Disposable Income
0.32
Food Expenditure
0.35
Clothe Expenditure
0.14
Habitable Area
0.19
As seen from the membership function in (4), when the values get close to zero, it means that
the personhas a membership grade close to zero is not considered poor in terms of the
indicator. In this study the composite single index shows 0.1917 membership grade. If we
examine each indicator carefully, food expenditure and disposable income indicators show
relatively high membership grades, which denote deprivation of the households, when
compared to cloth-footwear and habitable area indicators; especially cloth-footwear indicator
is a surprising result. This can be explained by the fact that textile industry is the one of the
most developed industry in Turkey and there is always excess supply which reduces prices.
Also habitable area shows that despite of relatively poor conditions in poor houses; square
meter area per person is wide. Although 25000 households are surveyed, available data for
disposable income are 8421 households. This makes FPI reduce for disposable income. This
might increase FIP.
Also, we summarize the results obtained from the classic measure in Table 3. This work is
the extension of the study conducted and presented in EUSFLAT-LFA 2005 in BarcelonaSpain.
Table 3 Classic Poverty Measure
Food Expenditure
Poverty except food
0.2812
Relative Poverty
0.1551
REFERENCES
122
0.1290
Bantilan, M.C.S, Bantilan F. T. and de Castro M. M., (1992). “Fuzzy Subset Theory in the
Measurement of Poverty”, Journal of Philippine Development, Num: 34, Vol. XIX, pp 97127.
Cerioli A., Zani S. (1990). “A Fuzzy Approach to the Measurement of Poverty”, Income and
Wealth Distribution, Inequality and Poverty, in Dangum, C. and Zenga, M. (eds).
Cheli, B., Lemmi, A. (1995). A Totally Fuzzy and Relative Approach to the Multi
Dimensional analysis of Poverty, Economic Notes, vol 24, pp115- 134.
Miceli, D., (1998). Measuring Poverty Using Fuzzy Sets, Discussion Paper no.38,
NATSEM, University of Canberra.
The State Institute of Statistic of The Republic of Turkey, Households Survey 2003.
World Bank, “Development Reports”, Attacking poverty, World Bank 2000/2001
Washington, D.C.
Zadeh A, Fuzzy sets, Information and Control 8 (1965) 338-353
The Importance Of Erp (Enterprise Resource Planning) Software And Choosing
Criterias For Business
Hakan Çetin1 ,Hakan Akar2
1Akdeniz Universiy, Faculty of Education
Department of ComputerEducationandInstructionalTechnology
2Akdeniz University, Department of Informatics
Abstract
With the increase of competition and being used information technologies by
business’ effectively, the software that organize flow of information and develop the
interdivisional integration have increased. While this study is emphasizing the importance of
ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) software for business, reveals choosing criteria. In this
study, firstly, for business ERP system’s basic features, modules and profits are discussed. In
next parts, key considerations when choosing ERP software are emphasized and lastly
discussed how to ERP system put out an approach for business. In consequence of the
discussion, it is seen that Enterprise Resource Planning software for companies' internal
control activities and interdepartmental integration is successful and necessary.
Keywords: ERP, Information Technologies, Planning
123
1.INTRODUCTION
The advances in informatics technologies have diminished the world, thus the trade
activities merchandised interstate conveniently can be merchandised all around the world.
These advances have changed business’ commerce routines and approaches. The increasing
competition has led firms seek reliable solutions and ERP software administering the process
which passes from provision to manufacturing via management information systems are
developed [Klaus et al., 2000].
In this process brought up by competition, business should use their sources
effectively and efficiently to be afloat, to stand out among its rivals and come into
prominence (Çelik, 2011). Effective and efficient use of sources depends on administering
the process good and taking right strategic decisions. In this point, informatics technologies
create solutions to business and some data that help the administrators take right decisions.
Being business big or small, producing service or goods are not obstacle to
their information technologies usage. In the future, when information technologies are
inadequate, business will develop new concepts and technologies and they will have to share
their concepts and technologies with other business (İlter, 2007:1-20). The reason for this, in
process of produces more and more innovations and strategic specialities will be required and
these innovation and specialities will be presented to business usages.
Nowadays, it is seen that business that have classic business administering
insight have been disappeared and they leave their places new business that use information
technologies and systems the most efficiently (İlter, 2007:1-20). This study presents some
information which show the importance,usage areas, advantages and disadvantages of ERP
software.
2.WHAT IS ENTERPRISING RESOURCE PLANNING?
Information technologies affect business directly in some areas like electronic
trade, ERP and information administering (Arıkboğa, Kaya, 2000:127). Enterprise resource
planning systems with opportunities in the competitive environment, business will become
more advantageous. Being Material requirement planning (MRP) and Manufacturing
resource planning (MRPII) systems’ developed versions, ERP system is a planning and
communicating system containing all functions of business (Kumar, 2002: 511).
Nowadays, the systems called as ERPII help to manage modules such as
purchase, accounting and finance, quality control, stock management, production planning,
logistic, human resources, customer care (CRM), marketing and provision management from
central location (Aydoğan, 2008: 2). In brief, ERP can be introduced as a software package
that integrates all ongoing flow of information in a company (Çelik, 2011).
ERP softwares are package programs prepared with modular logic. There are a
lot of ERP software on the marketing and nearly all of their basic modules are the same.
Looking at the overall ERP software modules, it is seen that this modules are gathered under
the titles of purchase method, sale and customer care, product design, materials management,
production management, accounting and finance, human resources and the basic application
modules (Aydoğan, 2008: 113).
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Businesses that want to use ERP software, process mapping needs to be
acquainted with how things are primarily. ERP software will be removed this way, a road
map to follow. Process mapping is located in two different options. The first option is the
mapping of the current situation and second option is to use best solution. In ERP software
built on mapping the current situation there are built-in performance and software flexibility,
the likelihood of various problems (Kul, 2009: 211-212).
3.THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS OF ERP SYSTEMS
In increasing competitive environment business to make themselves
advantageously benefit from the opportunities offered by information technologies. In 1960’s
business used inventory management that makes manually and control system. In 1970’s
MRP systems that assumed as the beginning of ERP systems are developed. The MRP
systems were rendered computer aided by Joseph Orlicky and this system provided the
necessary support for the determination of the amount of material (TMMOB, 2006).
In 1980’s the subject of MRP attracted attentions of software companies and
package programmes were started to develop. In the same years with increasing competition
in business products and production control began to be insufficient. MRPIIs were developed
via incorporated rising values such as logistics, finance, sales and accounting planning in the
system (TMMOB, 2006).
In 1990’sincreasing information traffic in business featured units’
coordination. Besides, with the distribution resources planning and addition integrated
manufacturing to computers, new softwares were needed. The softwares in that all units are
integrated with each other and datas collected in single center in business were developed. To
this developed package programmes were named Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP).
In 2000’s new approaches such as Customer Relationship Management
(CRM) and Supply Chain Management (SCM) emerged by this way there were needs for
non-business information systems. With the inclusion of this approaches to the system by
software companies, the ERP system turned to the ERPII (Bircan, 2009).
At the present time, with the acceleration of internet and business’ moving to
this environment, some functions such as B2B, B2C, intranet, PAM, LMS, job flow
management, Project management are needed. With the combinations of these functions,
enterprise information systems began to be called as e- Businnes.
4.STRUCTURAL FEATURES OF ERP SYSTEM
ERP software can be produced according to the desired sector or needs. no
matter which the industry or field of activity are produced, these softwares’ features are the
same basically. Enterprise Resource Planning systems generally have common features
(Aydoğan, 2008; BayraktarveEfe, 2006):




125
ERP software have a modular structure.
ERP software can be customized to meet the needs of companies and developed.
ERP software has hardwired management system that holds both the master data and
data for business process.
With its single interface and integrated structure, ERP software provides flow of
information to all departments within the business.



To manage data accurately and consistently, real time data entry is needed.
By providing data to be transferred electronically via the Internet and intranets, ERP
software is compatible with today’s information technology.
Because it supports many corporate functions, it has a highly functional structure.
ERP software has a modular structure. These functional modules which are
contained in the modular structure can be expressed as principal components such as
Strategic Planning and Management, Accounting Management, Financial Management,
Production Management, Logistics, Product Development and R & D Management, Sales
and Marketing Management, Human Resource Management, Supply Chain Management, EBusiness Applications, Customer Relationship Management.
5. ERP’S BENEFITS AND SELECTION CRITERIA
ERP system uses a wide variety of software and hardware components. For
ERP software is high cost investment, selection of software is very important to meet the
needs of business. Before choosing the software, firstly business should decide if they will
use ERP system or not. Situations where it is needed ERP software can be expressed as
follows.









If your business suffer from unknown costs,
If problems of only specific persons resolve,
If your actual financial performance is unknown,
If follow up and planning take a lot of time,
If processing errors are increasing,
If the information requested cannot be accessed easily, takes a week to prepare some
reports,
If there are several contradictions in the reports prepared.
If your business suffer from customer loss and customer complaints are increasing,
If existing software restrict the company’s growth,(Onar, 2008).
To be successful the ERP that will be installed in business, it is needed to
choose the software which creates the most appropriate solutions for the organization
structure, technological systems, corporate objectives and strategies to the business. The
process is so important that during the software decision even a small mistake made can
cause of big amount of financial loss. (http://www.sumo.com.tr/erpsecimkriter.html).
Therefore, when choosing an ERP, businesses can follow to this 4-stage:




Identification
Research
Recognition
Analysis and selection of applications.
In identification phase, business should identify its priorities and processes
properly. Secondly, the solutions that matches described system should be investigated.
Candidates’ solution offers appeared in a list that will be obtained from the trail should be
analyzed,demos of software should be looked at, references should be reviewed and
consequently a score should be given to each studied software according to its suitability for
126
the process and goals. In the selection process, if an analytical method is used, some criterias
should be based on and the selection should be evaluated according to this criterias. Finally,
before the analysis and selection process, the selection criterias should be determined. There
are 15 criteria most commonly used around the world on this issue. Thesecriterias may be
reduced to 5:





Functionality
Technology and Expertise (Know-How)
Flexibility and Scalability of Application
Cost and Ease of Use
Implementation and Ease of Use
According to known criterias, during the selection of ERP, the method called
as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used. In analytic hierarchy process firstly the
selection criterias are ordered among each other, and secondly candidate software are ordered
among each other. According to this order, the decision makers decide the ERP system that
provides optimum benefit (Baltalar, 2008).
ERP systems selected for the purpose of business will provide these contributions in general:
(TMMOB, 2006; Kul, 2009; Aydoğan, 2008)














It speeds up the flow of information via provide the achievement of the desired format
and detailed.
Provides inventory optimization.
Provides an excellent decision support system that increases the competitiveness.
It helps managers make better and faster decisions.
Provides in-house performance monitoring and analysis.
Provides the tools which are needed to sales forecasting, sales channels and dealer
management, market and customer assessment.
Provides increase in manufacturing performance and speed of manufacturing process.
Provides improvement in preparation of orders and financial information.
Provides efficient use of resources, and decrease operating costs by providing
management.
Thanks to flexible structures, provides an easy and rapid adaptation according to the
market conditions and changes in the needs of business processes.
Provides development of a common in-house language and increased coordination
between units.
In order to meet customer needs more quickly, giving the necessary support for the
management of customer relationships, provides increase in customer satisfaction.
Provide the right investment decisions and improve business processes.
Allows customers and suppliers in different regions to share data faster and to
integrate information easily.
6. CRITICISM ABOUT ERP
Even though some positive opinions are indicated, in literature and practice
there are some negative opinions about ERP systems. Actually they are not negative opinions
but they are criticisms. The first one of the criticism aimed at business owners and
administrators. Business owners or managers concerned with the overall costs of purchasing
the software they need, other elements do not receive much more attention (Gör, ve
127
Güneri,2008). This approach leads to a higher risk to face with. Here are the criticisms made
about ERP (Çelik, 2011).








ERP systems cost high expenditure.
ERP system’s setup takes long time.
These systems have difficulty in adapting to existing and complex softwares.
ERP systems are interested in very large-sized companies.
Implementation of ERP systems are very expensive and require significant
modifications.
The company needs restructuring process in order to use modification system.
ERP systems increases the number of information technology and personnel costs.
Even if ERP systems are installed, additional systems are needed for proper operation.
These criticisms are important for the development of the system. Definitely
there are some deficiencies in all systems. The important thing is to complete the missing
parts.
7. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
Development of technology and changing competitive conditions are
promoted many middle-and upper- level business to find different solutions. Integrated
software systems, beginning with using the computers in manufacturing sector has turned
into giant package programmes which is called as ERP at present time.
Before the business use these package programmes, they definetely need to
spend a good software selection process. When literature review and studies associated with
this subject are analysed, it is seen that there is some selection methods the business need to
use during the software selection process. Gorener (2011) used VIKOR technic and analytic
net process (ANP) method during the ERP software selection in his study. There are two
important phase in selection process. First one is to determine the criterias; this phase is
performed by usage of some methods such as Analitical Hierarchy, Analitical net process.
Second one is process of ordering the criterias according to their order of importance. The
rating process is performed by some techniqes such as Vikor, Topsis, Promethee, Electre,
Saw techniques. It is seen that among the sort techniques, Topsis and Vikor give optimum
result in the study that Chu and the others carried out.
The most important process about ERP systems is selecting process, thus
Professional support must be taken. Business sometimes ignores this process cause of its
costs, but it must be remembered that if the software being inexpedient is selected, the
subsequent process will lead to greater financial loss.
No matter how they are named, ERP, ERPII or e-Business , a corporate
information system should produce solutions not only for business within business process,
but also for all employees, suppliers, customers and business partners. In other words, it must
manage bothbackoffice and frontoffice resources (Bircan, 2009).
This study presents ERP software development process and its beneficial
aspects for business. In addition, it contains the important points that business should give
attention and the techniques that are used in this process. Benefiting from ERP systems that
have an expensive and complex structure depends on carrying out the process of selecting
and setupprocess conspiratorially and the attention the business paid.
128
REFERANCES
AYDOĞAN, E., (2008), “Kurumsal Kaynak
AraştırmalarDergisi, Yıl 12, Sayı 2, ss.107-118.
Planlaması”,
Türkiye
Sosyal
ARIKBOĞA, D., Kaya, İ., (2000), “Ülkemizde Kurumsal Kaynak Planlaması veMuhasebe
Eğitiminden Beklentiler”, XIX. Türkiye Muhasebe Eğitimi Sempozyumu, 18-20 Mayıs,
İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Bildiriler Kitabı, ss.134-147.
BALTALAR, H., (2008), “Analizitik ERP Seçimi”, ERP Akademi
BAYRAKTAR, E., EFE,M., (2006), “Kurumsal Kaynak Planlaması(Erp) Ve YazılımSeçim
Süreci”, Selçuk Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi: 689, Sayı 15, 2006
BİRCAN Emre, (2009), “ERP’nin tarihçesi ve WORKCUBE”, www.cfcube.com, erişim
tarihi: 23.04.2012
CHU, M.T.,Shyu, J., Tzeng, G.-H., Khosla, R., (2007),
“ComparisonAmong
ThreeAnalyticalMethodsFor
Knowledge
CommunitiesGroupDecision
Analysis”.
ExpertSystemswith Applications, Vol.33, No.4, 1011-1024.
CELİK,M.,(2011), “Kurumsal Kaynak Planlama Sistemlerinin Muhasebe SüreçlerineEtkisine
Yönelik İMKB’de Bir Araştırma”, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi.
GUPTA,
M.,Kohli,
A.
(2006),
“Enterpriseresourceplanningsystemsanditsimplicationsforoperationsfunction”, Technovation,
26.
Gör, A, G., Güneri F., (2008), “ERP Yazılım Seçiminde ANP Tekniğinin Kullanılması”, 2.
Ulusal Sistem Mühendisliği Kongresi Bildiriler Kitabı, 296-300.
Heizeger, Jay - Render,
Edition,PearsonPrenticeHall
Bary
(2008),
“Operations
Management”,
Ninth
İLTER, H.,Bilgi,K., (2007),Sistemleri Perspektifinden KurumsalKaynak Planlaması: Etkiler
Ve Degerler, İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Yıl:6 Sayı:11 Bahar
2007/2s.1-20)
Klaus, K.,Rosemann, M. ve Gable, G. G., (2000), “What is ERP?, Information
SystemsFrontiers” 2:2, 141-162
Kul, H (2009), “İşletmeler İçin Bilişim Sistemleri Temelleri ve Uygulamaları”, papatya
yayıncılık, İstanbul.
OnarÖ.Mustafa, (2008), “Erp Yolculuğuna Çıkacaklara Öneriler”, Bilişim zirvesi.
V. Kumar, ve diğerleri, (2002), “Enterprise Resource Planning SystemsAdoptionProcess: A
Survey Of CanadianOrganizations” International Journal of ProductionReserch, Vol 40,
No.3, s511.
129
Does predefined ERP implementation methodology work for public companies in
transitioning country?
Adnan Kraljić, Denis Delismajlović, Tarik Kraljić
Information Technology Department,International Burch University
Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to answer a question “Does predefined ERP
implementation methodology work for state owned companies in transitioning countries?”
The focus will be on state owned companies from Bosnia and Herzegovina, as it is typical
transitioning company. Paper will treat selected issues which could trouble ERP
implementation trough predefined ERP implementation methodology for SAP ERP. This
paper presents observations/remarks based on experience of authors in SAP ERP
implementation projects in public sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Author’s goal is to
provide useful insight into predefined ERP implementation methodology (in theory) and
issues that arise in real life ERP projects. Also, it should provide structural knowledge for all
stakeholders involved in the process of ERP implementation in public sector.
Keywords: enterprise resource planning (ERP), implementation, state owned company, post
socialist transitioning country, ASAP methodology
1.Challenge known as ERP implementation
Enterprise resource planning (ERP) system is a business management system which
comprises integrated sets of comprehensive software, which can be used, when successfully
implemented, to manage and integrate all the business functions within an organization.
These sets usually include a set of mature business applications and tools for financial and
cost accounting, sales and distribution, materials management, human resource, production
planning and computer integrated manufacturing, supply chain, and customer information.[1]
References
1 Sheu, C., Yen, H.R., and Krumwiede D.W.: The effect of national differences on multinational ERP
implementation: an exploratory study. TQM & Business Excellence, Vol.14, Issue 6, August,
pp.641657. (2003)
130
So, the main feature of ERP is computer-based integration of the whole organization into one
system and database. It provides higher efficiency and real time reporting. Data entered in
one module of the system are immediately accessible for other organization’s functions.
Figure 1. presents typical functional ERP architecture.
Figure 1. Typical ERP system architecture
People often contemplate ERP as software provided out of box. We consider ERP more as a
concept. Target of any ERP implementation in organization is to provide benefits for all
stakeholders by improving business operations and decision making process. It is important
to state that ERP’s benefits are a direct result of effective preparation and implementation,
and appropriate use of system. This seems obvious, but nine out of 10 companies don’t get it
right the first time around. [2]
Story about ERP implementation
ERP implementation is set of activates, normally leading to the fully operating system. It
mixes business, technical and clerks’ sides which should work harmonized during the
implementation. Every employee in the company is involved in ERP implementation process;
either they are technical support in company (IT department) or end users of information
system. Obviously it is not easy to manage all of these project members. There are many
examples of ERP implementation failures.
The world of IT and business consulting is full of stories of ERP projects gone wrong.
Companies such as Whirlpool, Hershey Foods, and Allied Waste Industries have had exposed
2 ( September 1998 issue of Midrange ERP “There Is No Magic in ERP Software: It’s in Preparation of
the Process and People,” p. 8]).
131
court cases against ERP software vendors (such as SAP A.G. and Oracle) because of their
unsuccessful implementations.
It is interesting that according to a statement cited in an ITWorld.com article, Waste
Management claims SAP deceived it by creating "fake software environments" for product
demonstrations. The project went bad almost immediately after a sales agreement was signed
in October of 2005. Though SAP promised a pilot version of the system would be up and
running by Dec. 15, 2006, "it is not even close to being completed today." [3]
Another famous story about SAP implementation failure is Shane Co. The family-owned
jewelry retailer that sought bankruptcy told a U.S. judge the company’s decline was triggered
partly by delays and cost overruns for a $36 million SAP AG inventory-management system.
SAP, the world’s biggest maker of business-management software, took almost three years to
install and implement the system instead of one year, while costs “ballooned” to $36 million
from a projected maximum of $10 million, Shane said in papers filed in U.S. Bankruptcy
Court in Denver. [4]
In general an implementation is seen as successful if it is completed within budget and time
frame; addressing all implementation deliverables measured by ROI, KPIs etc. Lots of
variables are involved in ERP implementation such as; personnel (business side, technical
side, support side, users), implementation partner (for example local integration software
PeopleSoft, JD Edwards, Salesforce.com etc.), and implementation strategy. [5] With a
number of issues that arise together, in a few months or year for implementation, it is
important to address critical factors that shape an implementation. Also, as we mentioned, it
is important not to underestimate the nature of public institution and all bureaucracy you have
to cope with during the implementation.
2. No one is immune - country specific issues of public sector
There is no industry or business activity that is not influenced by B&H’s social environment.
Complex picture of transitioning post conflict country will be described in next few
paragraphs. The stress will be on state owned companies.
3 Whos to blame for failed ERP project that prompted lawsuit,
http://www.itbusinessedge.com/cm/blogs/all/whos-to-blame-for-failed-erp-project-that-promptedsap-lawsuit/?cs=11588
4 Shane Says SAP Costs Helped Cause Jeweler’s Decline,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awweg53wmmJw&refer=germany
5 Bhagwani, A.: Critical Success Factors In Implementing SAP ERP Software, An EMGT Field Project
report submitted to the Engineering Management Program and the Faculty of the Graduate School
of The University of Kansas, (2009)
132
In Bosnia and Herzegovina there are some big state owned companies that implemented an
ERP or are in the process of implementation. According to SAP User Community in B&H
SAP ERP is the main ERP vendor for big public companies. It could be useful information so
we will name those companies: EPBiH, BH Telecom, JP EPHZ HB, HT Mostar and Clinical
center University of Sarajevo.
One of the issues of public sector in B&H is very complex stakeholder structure due to
political system as a result of post conflict circumstances. (Dayton and Paris political
agreement resulted in four different levels of government – 14 governments, 180 ministers; 1
prime minister per 300 000 people, one the most complex and expensive governmental body
in the world). According to the 2005 CMI report, this bloated public sector accounts for 54%
of the annual GDP - more than in any other European country. [6] Another issue is widely
spread corruption as one of the common characteristics of post socialist developing country.
After war in B&H and privatization, which was conducted doubtfully, hundreds of state
owned companies finished in bankruptcy. However, still few state owned companies, mainly
utility and telecom companies, are the backbone of country’s economy. Unfortunately, public
sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina is very complex and due to the last surveys one of the most
corrupted in Europe, especially in its employment policy.
As mentioned previously 54% of GDP is consisted of public sector what implies the
importance of this sector and long term consequences if fraud is part of it. Same report states
that corruption pattern in B&H is characterized by (a) high level of public concern with
corruption, (b) low level of public trust in the governments, (c) state capture and conflict of
interest, (d) public administration inefficiencies reflected in widespread bribery in public
offices, (e) distorted business environment and (f) a significant burden on poor households,
exacerbating poverty and inequality. Public tenders (defined by public procurement law)
could provide opportunity for corruption if they are done with a lack of transparency. [7]
Also process of choosing the bid winner is complex with not strict definition of vendor
selection criteria. According to the World Bank report, in the most cases in B&H, tender
policy is based on price, which weights for more than 70% of possible points which vendor
could earn in selection procedure. This leads to artificially low price offered. It ensures
wining the bid, but do not ensure the quality of service.
3.How ERP vendors want to help implementations
As mentioned in previous chapter, ERP software vendor is one to blame when expected
results do not occur after ERP implementation.
ERP vendors believe that tracking of tested implementation methodology is a prerequisite for
successful ERP implementation. All implementation methodologies e.g. Oracle Application
Implementation Methodology (AIM), Accelerated SAP (ASAP) etc suggest at least five
6 Corruption and Anti-Corruption in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H);
www.u4.no/helpdesk/helpdesk/query.cfm?id=221
7 Bosnia and Herzegovina Diagnostic Surveys of Corruption, World Bank;
http://www1.worldbank.org/publicsector/anticorrupt/Bosnianticorruption.pdf
133
phases of ERP implementation: Define; Design; Build; Transition; and Go Live & Support.
[8]
To avoid uncomfortable project situations ERP vendors developed predefined ERP
implementation methodologies. One of the most famous is delivered by the biggest ERP
vendor - SAP. It is ASAP methodology (ASAP – Accelerated SAP). In next few paragraphs
we will describe ASAP methodology in details.
Accelerated SAP (ASAP) is SAP’s standard implementation methodology. It is consisted of 6
phases, and those are: Project preparation, Blueprint, Realization, Final preparation, Go-Live
Support and Run. It is serial relationship, so predecessor phase has to be completed in order
to move on next phase. In figure 2. those phases are shown.
This roadmap is a step-by-step guide that incorporates experience from many years of
implementing R/3. Along with that, Accelerated SAP contains a multitude of tools,
accelerators and useful information to assist all team members in implementing R/3. Quality
checks are incorporated at the end of each phase to easily monitor deliverables and critical
success factors. ASAP is delivered as a PC-based package, so that – if required – an
implementation project can begin prior to having an R/3 System installed. [9]
We will give more details regarding each phase.
3.1.Project Preparation
Goal of this phase is to plan our project and lay the foundations for successful
implementation. It is at this stage that we make the strategic decisions crucial to your project:
define your project goals and objectives, clarify the scope of your implementation, define
your project schedule, budget plan, and implementation sequence, establish the project
organization and relevant committees and assign resources
3.2.Business Blueprint
During this phase we create a blueprint using the Question & Answer database (Q&Adb),
which documents your enterprise’s requirements and establishes how your business processes
and organizational structure are to be represented in the SAP System. We also refine the
original project goals and objectives and revise the overall project schedule in this phase.
3.3.Realization
In this phase, we configure the requirements contained in the Business Blueprint. Baseline
8 Nazir, M. M.: ERP Implementation in Oil Refineries, Daily Business Recorder, Karachi (2005)
9 Miller, S.: Asap Implementation at the Speed of Business: Implementation at the Speed of
Business, Computing Mcgraw-Hill (1998)
134
configuration (major scope) is followed by final configuration (remaining scope), which can
consist of up to four cycles. Other key focal areas of this phase are conducting integration
tests and drawing up end user documentation.
3.4.Final Preparation
After project realization phase, we complete our preparations, including testing, end user
training, system management, and cutover activities. We also need to resolve all open. At this
stage we need to ensure that all the prerequisites for your system to go live have been
fulfilled.
3.5. Go Live & Support
In this phase we move from a pre-production environment to the live system. The most
important elements include setting up production support, monitoring system transactions. [8]
3.6.Run
Optimizing overall system performance and obtaining permanent business process
optimization.
Phase objectives shown in Figure 3.
.
Figure 3. Phase objectives
135
ERP implementation in transitioning country in state owned companies –It is shown in table 1. Expected objectives for each ASAP phase and
constraints that occurs in practice
Phase
Excepted objectives
Constraints in practice regarding the phase objects
Project
Preparation
Defined your project goals and objectives
Unskilled project managers
Clarified the scope of your implementation
Corruption in tendering procedure (inadequate tendering procedure)
Defined your project schedule, budget plan, Poorly written tendering documentation
and implementation sequence
Leak of project management knowledge (no clear goals and objectives)
Established the project organization and Poorly prepared project work break structure
relevant committees and assign resources
Employee does not care about resource spending - state money.
Budget and project schedule planned with no serious approach
Blueprint
Created blueprints using the Question & Too much / little time spent on blueprint preparation due to lack of project
Answer database (Q&Adb)
management knowledge, and requirements set by political not business persons /
reasons
Mapped business processes
Overview of all business process
No localize ASAP documentation for smaller countries (example Bosnian
language)
Leak of business process mapping skills
Leak of professional business environment in state owned companies, which
support this extremely important phase
Managers and supervisors mostly not centers of competence
Realization
136
Configured the requirements contained in Leak of project management
the Business Blueprint
Leak of change management (Change management not consider as important)
conducted unit tests
Responsibility issue - “there is someone else who will do it”
Go – Live
Support
Run
Conducted integration tests
Integration test not taken seriously from end users
Prepared end users documentation
Very slow internal knowledge and information transfer - several managers has
to sign document to be approved .
Moved from a pre-production environment Help desk not established by the company
to the live system
Defined communication channels not respected
Includes setting up production support, Often, poor management decision made under huge pressureof Go Live phase
monitoring system transactions
Employees working habits- mistakes are there to be hidden
Optimizing overall system performance
No optimization and improvements
Permanent business process optimization
Lack of understanding that the ERP system is “live” system
After project is finished all ERP story ends.
Problems with tendering procedure for support
No competent support in country as Bosnia and Herzegovina - low spending on
consultant education
137
4. Most threatening constraints in practice regarding ASAP methodology
In next few paragraphs we will discuss the most prominent constraints from the list above.
Inadequate tendering procedure for state owned company - The Public Procurement Law
adopted in 2004 generally complies with the main principles of the EU public procurement
system. [10] However, in practice, procurement process for public companies still provides
significant space for fraud. One of the most questionable aspects of public tendering law is
determining price as the most important factor in bidding. So winning the bid is based
significantly, if not exclusively on price. This leads to artificially decreased price by some
bidders. Other companies are in the risk to become uncompetitive if the price is set according
to the real market price for the project scope. This provide space for risky system integrators
who are not skilled to provide ASAP methodology and cannot provide skilled SAP
consultants who can implement ASAP methodology in SAP ERP implementation.
No localization for ASAP documentation for smaller countries (example Bosnian language) –
ASAP methodology provides dozen of documents well written in English language. It is
profound help for consultants and substantially accelerates the process of implementation.
Unfortunately, this documentation is not translated on local languages of small, transitioning
B&H market.
Time consuming decision making flow process (from bottom to top) – Decision process in
big, public companies can be very slow. It clearly does not support name of SAP standard
methodology – Accelerated SAP. One of the reasons could be very complex and complicated
organization structure. Specific for some public companies is lack of modern information
infrastructure, like e-mails.
Working habits of management and employees – Probably someone would ask what
communism has with ASAP. However, as former communist country, Bosnia and
Herzegovina has kept some of the practices from that period (especially in state owned
companies). These habits could include: no real authority of the management, work is not
valuated by achievement but personal relations; there is no incentive by employees to make
some effort and improve work environment. Also, salary is determinate by salary coefficients
for each working position. Coefficient is provided by legislation.
Public companies are short of qualified employees. Most of employees are with lack of
knowledge and practice in business domain they are hired for. The reason for this could be
138
corruption in employment process (some public companies advocate publicly that they prefer
daughters
and
sons
of
their
current
employees
in
hiring
process.
Leak of professional business environment in state owned companies – ASAP methodology
requires business educated professionals who can follow ASAP predefined tasks. Very often
employees in state owned companies do not have appropriate skills that can support ASAP
activities. Even if the project managers deliver tasks to their employee the feedback is
missing or is delivered in very poor manner.
Leak of change management (Change management not consider as important) - Change
management is a process which aim is to make easier implementation, as well as transition
during ERP project. Since ERP project is usually very complex, change management can
play significant role to improve employees to understand why the project has been
implemented and to make organizational changes and BPR easier. These activities can be
summed into 3 basic ones: education of employees, communication among stakeholders and
involvement in project process. Lack of change management can affect quality of project
implementation, and make results smaller.
5. CONCLUSION
As it is stated in abstract the main objective of this paper is to answer a question “Does
predefined ERP implementation methodology work for state owned companies in
transitioning countries?” We tried to answer on this question with experience gained with
several projects in state owned companies done in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We will call it
“hands on” experience. As we are working as SAP consultants, we chose SAP Accelerated
methodology as referent methodology for our paper. We found it relevant as it is provided by
the biggest ERP vendor – SAP A.G. In general ASAP methodology is well developed with
hundreds of well-structured documents which support all ERP implementation activities.
Unfortunately, in practice, this ERP implementation methodology hardly works for state
owned. As experienced SAP consultants we have impression that ASAP methodology is
constructed for private companies with professional business environment. At the end we will
state the most remarkable constrains we found during ASAP methodology implementation:
Inadequate tendering procedure for state owned company
No localization for ASAP documentation for smaller countries (example Bosnian language)
Time consuming decision making flow process
Working habits of management and employees
139
Leak of professional business environment in state owned companies
Leak of change management (Change management not consider as important)
We hope that this paper will be useful in further ERP implementations and ERP research.
A Cross – Sectional Analysis of Environmetal Sustainability Practices
Toksari Murat1, Uçan Okyay2
1Nigde University, Department of Business,
2Nigde University, Department of Economics,
Abstract
In 1970s and 1980s the concept of sustainability developed as a process of protection for the
elements that social, economic and eceological systems need. During the Environment and
Development Summit held in 1992, decisions were made about the works to protect and
improve the environmental sustainability with the help of objective policies. By revealing
sustainability specifically focuses on the social, economic and ecological target, Brountland
report states that meeting Socia-Economic needs is limited to the carrying capacity of ecosystem.
Environmental sustainability is divided into three categories. They are resource management,
energy management and product sustainability. While, solid waste and water conservation
compose the resource managament, energy managament includes energy conservation,
renewable energy, GHG emission reduction, energy sufficient. Finally, product sustainability
involves product transportation, supply chain audit, product stewardship and Life Cycle
Program.
In this context, environmental sustainability index and environmental performance index
were prepared by the universities of Yale and Colombia. With environmental sustainability
index, it is intented to reach perfection in the current and future environmental qualities of the
countries. This index, is a tool when aiming to be qualified and is an important mechanism
for testing the environmental performance. As for environmental performance index, it has
been developed by using result-oriented indicators.
140
In this study, the countries whose performances enter the scope of the environmental
performance index were compared, 142 countries in 2002 and 146 countries in 2005 were
included in this index.
Keywords: Sustainability, environmental performance index, environmental sustainability
index, Turkey
1.INTRODUCTION
Dictionary meaning of the concept of sustainable is “today's needs without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs met unless otherwise
indicated”. The concept of sustainability in the final report in 1987 by the United Nations
Commission on Environment and Development is defined as follows: "Humanity, without
compromising the ability to respond to the needs of future generations, by providing the daily
needs, has the ability to make development sustainable”.
The term “sustainability” was coined by the United Nations appointed Brundland
Commission and later refined by the UN Commission on Environment and Development held
in Rio de Janeiro (Blackburn, 2007). The best – known definition of sustainability, as
established by the UN Commission on Environment and Development, states that
“development is sustainable where it meets the needs of the present without compromising
the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987).
The concept of sustainability on different topics in the discipline of economic
stability, debt sustainability in order to be able to express the ability of being able to continue,
such as sustainable growth around the macro-economic definitions are used extensively.
However, the concept of sustainability in all areas, especially in the field of economics
Brundland by the World Commission on Environment and Development Report, has
expanded the definition of sustainable development.
Since the 1980s, the development of international environmental discussions of
sustainable development, applied science, environmental and international policy areas
examined as a multi-faceted concept that has become the focal point of development
strategies (Carvalho, 2001: 62; Bakırtaş ve Bakırtaş, 2007: 223).
Sustainable Development, briefly, to meet the demands and needs of future
generations without restricting the ability and facilities, can be expressed as the present needs
are met.
This defines the extent of development mentioned above, under six headings
summaries spreadable. These are can be expressed as the environment, the future, quality of
life, justice, precautionary principles, and holistic thinking. In addition, there are 3
141
dimensions of the sustainability of the development which are indisputable and can not
distinguish between each other (Arzu Özyol, http://hydra.com.tr/uploads/kutup9.pdf):
Social Dimension: Continuing education for the public "quality of life will provide increasing
benefits for themselves and the whole of the next generations,
The Economic Dimension: Due to limited resources, these resources can improve people's
quality of life and how the fairest way to determine what is the most effective way to
distribute
The Environmental Dimension: Recycled or not, the use of any determination as to ensure
the continuity of natural resource
In this context, one of the dimensions of the environmental dimension of sustainable
development for environmental sustainability are discussed for the first time in the capital of
Brazil, Rio De Janeiro on Environment and Development Summit held in 1992. In this
summit, the objective of environmental sustainability is necessary for the protection and
development policies, concluded that the aid. The most important work in this area of
Environmental Sustainability Index (CSI) 's prepared. This index is prepared jointly by Yale
University and Columbia University. Index has 21 indicators is entegrated to 76 data. This 21
quality indicators provide to compare five different subjects: the peripheral system, stress
levels of this system, the human population sensitivity to environmental degradation,
environmental stress and institutional capacity and global resposibility (Global Leaders,
2001:9).
The paper organized as follows. Section 2 discusses the theoretical background.
Section 3 summarizes the literature.The methodology is presented in Section 4. The overall
conclusion and result are in the final section.
2. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
Although sustainability is important for ensuring the future Quality of the global
environment, it can also be viewed as a business opportunity, an investment in the future and
a pathway to innovation and creative thinking (Satterfield et al. 2009; Hontou et al. 2006;
Cowan et al. 2010).
Today business, now more sensitivity towards environmental activities as a cost item
or to see the threat of competition as an oppurtunity rather than one have to see (Lee et al.,
2006: 292). For this reason, environmental innovation can be stated as environmental risk
education or more generally as a contribution to sustainable development goals, new ideas,
attitudias, development and implemntation of products and process (Rennizgs, 2000: 322).
Environmental product innovation in the production and even the destruction of the product
until they begin to become waste throughout the product life cycle to eliminate or reduce the
142
negative effects on the environment includes the innovative activities (Büyükkeklik et al.,
2010: 375).
3. LITERATURE
Author
Method
Result
Robert Goodland 1996
and Herman Daly
Distinguishing
development
from
sustainability and from growth, the paper
describes the concept of natural capital and
uses the concept to present four alternative
definitions of environmental sustainability.
The final section describes
how one large development
agency, the World Bank, is
endeavoring to incorporate
these new principle into its
operaions.
Gregory Theyel
2000
There are discernible differences in the
enviromental innovation and performance of
US chemical firms that can be explained by
differences in the management practices and
characteristics of the firms.
Firms in the chemical industry
and in other industries can
learn from the leading firms in
this research. Firms that do
mak
environmental
management part of production
management are likely to be
leaders in innovation for
pollution
prevention
and
environmental performance.
Smita
B. 2003
Brunnermeier
and Mark A.
Cohen
Panel data models to study how
environmental
sustainability
by
Us
manufacturing ındustries responded to
changes
in
pollution
abadement
expenditures and regulatory enforcement
during the period 1983 through 1992.
Environmental
innovation
responded to increases in
pollution
abatement
expenditures. Also find some
emprical
evidence
that
environmental innovation is
more likely to occur in
industries
that
are
internationally competitive.
Sergio et. al.
This paper anayses and discusses the
potentional role of evolutionary theories in
environmental innovation with emphasis on
sustainability.
The study concludes that eco –
evolution is efficient when
identifying non – optimal
technological trajectories and
sustainable
options
for
innovation on the base of
existent knowledge.
143
Year
2003
Allen S. Bellas 2007
and Nancy F.
Nentl
Following their introduction in the mid 1970s, fabric filters, a new type of industrial
scrubber, experineced aggressive growth,
and by 1990, this new technology (EIA)
form 767, using t tests, cross tabulations and
binominal regression to identify the
characteistics of those boilers, plants and
utilities that installed fabric filters from the
alte 1970s to 1990.
David Hillier
An opinion piece, that presents the view of There are those who believe
four authors on the current state of the that
marketing
and
depate in this field.
sustainability
simply
be
reconciled, while there are
others
who
argue
that
marketing can contribute to the
development of sustainable
consumption.
2008
Dallas M. Cowan 2010
Et. Al.
Benchmark analysis, They have collected
information on the sustainability programs
of the largest US companies in each of the
26 industrial sectors.
Anslysis indicates that there
are spesific characteristics of
early adopters of fabric filter
techonology such as the
capacity and age of the
associates boiler, the capacity
and size of the utility, and
whether the utility was
privately or publicly owned.
Thes have called product
sustainability one in which
toxicologist and environmental
scientist can play a vital role
helping to ensure that a
manufactured item will indeed
be considered acceptable for
distrubition now
4. METHODOLOGY
Environmental Sustainability Index was developed for monitoring of environmental
sustainability covering natural resources, past and present pollution levels, environmental
management efforts, contributions and society for the protection of the global values. This
index defines the sustainability of countries' capacity to improve the existing environmental
quality (Yıkmaz, 2011: 73).
Variables to allow comparisons between countries in the index, percent change is usually
determined. Some of them are diveded by GDP, imports of goods and services, to get avarage
values. After getting the proper comparison of variables, for the missing data, forecasting and
144
consolidation various transformations is applied to perform. In the first stage variables were
examined for normally distribution.
2 stage way is used for the skewness problems.
If the value is larger than 2 variables are taken in natural logarithm. Next, if they are larger
than 4 after the transformation .They all transformed to old values except the variables that
have larger than 4.
Since at the normal distribution, observations are distributed symmetrically around mean
value of skew is zero(0). Statistical methods to estimate the missing data (Markov ChainMonte Carlo simulation model) were applied. However, some variables, the index of
ecological and geographical factors are not within the scope of work because of missing data
could not be estimated.
The results of distributions are truncated by "Winsorization" technique in order to prevent
skewness because of the extreme values of the data. Priorities of the indicators vary by
country, generally acceptable weights for the indicators is not known, equal weight was
applied. Indicators are equally weighted variables in the form of the firms themselves.
Preserves the relative locations of receiving countries in order to avoid differences in the
scale of the z-scores were calculated. High values for the variables expressed in a high zscores of environmental sustainability; (variable value-mean value) / standard deviation of
the variables that environmental sustainability is for high-low values, (average of the
variable-variable value) / standard deviation was calculated using the formula (WEF, 2005).
5. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION
It’s emphasized that when Environmental Sustainability Index score is high, it’s more likely
to leave a healthier environment to the future generations. Upon looking into the results of the
index,it’s seen that none of the countries received high scores from 21 indicators. The results
of the Environmental Sustainability Index show that, environmental performance is closely
related to ,low population density, good governance the economic vitality (WEF, 2005).
Table 1. Countries in the years 2002 and 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)
Performance Comparison Chart
Country
ESI 2002 ESI 2002 ESI 2005 ESI 2005 ESI Point ESI as the
Ranking
Ranking
Difference Difference
Finland
73,9
145
1
75,1
1
1,2
0
Norway
73
2
73,4
2
0,4
0
Uruguay
66
6
71,8
3
5,8
3
Sweden
72,6
3
71,7
4
-0,9
-1
Iceland
63,9
8
70,8
5
6,9
3
Canada
70,6
4
64,4
6
-6,2
-2
Switzerland
66,5
5
63,7
7
-2,8
-2
Guyana
-
-
62,9
8
-
-
Austria
64,2
7
62,7
9
-1,5
-2
Argentina
61,5
15
62,7
10
1,2
5
Brazil
59,6
20
62,2
11
2,6
9
Gabon
54,9
36
61,7
12
6,8
24
Australia
60,3
16
61
13
0,7
3
New
Zealand
59,9
19
61
14
1,1
5
Latvia
63
10
60,4
15
-2,6
-5
Peru
56,5
29
60,4
16
3,9
13
Paraguay
57,8
25
59,7
17
1,9
8
Costa Rica
63,2
9
59,6
18
-3,6
-9
Croatia
62,5
12
59,5
19
-3
-7
Bolivia
59,4
21
59,5
20
0,1
1
Irelan
54,8
38
59,2
21
4,4
17
Colombia
59,1
22
58,9
22
-0,2
0
146
Lithuania
57,2
27
58,9
23
1,7
4
Alabania
57,9
24
58,8
24
0,9
0
Central
African
Republic
54,1
43
58,7
25
4,6
18
Estonia
60
17
58,2
26
-1,8
-9
Denmark
56,2
31
58,2
27
2
4
Panama
60
18
57,7
28
-2,3
-10
Slovenia
58,8
23
57,5
29
-1,3
-6
Japan
48,6
78
57,3
30
8,7
48
Germany
52,5
50
57
31
4,5
19
Namibia
57,4
26
56,8
32
-0,6
-6
Russia
49,1
73
56,1
33
7
40
Bostwana
61,8
13
55,9
34
-5,9
-21
France
55,5
33
55,2
35
-0,3
-2
Papua New 51,8
Guinea
52
55,2
36
3,4
16
Portugal
57,1
28
54,2
37
-2,9
-9
Malaysia
49,5
68
54
38
4,5
30
Congo
54,3
40
53,8
39
-0,5
1
Netherlands
55,4
34
53,7
40
-1,7
-6
Mali
47,1
85
53,7
41
6,6
44
Chile
55,1
35
53,6
42
-1,5
-7
147
Bhutan
56,3
30
53,5
43
-2,8
-13
Armenia
54,8
37
53,2
44
-1,6
-7
Unites States 53,2
45
53
45
-0,2
0
Slovakia
61,6
14
52,8
46
-8,8
-32
Belarus
52,8
49
52,8
47
0
2
Ghana
50,2
65
52,8
48
2,6
17
Myanmar
46,2
90
52,8
49
6,6
41
Laos
45,9
92
52,5
50
6,6
42
Ecuadar
56,2
32
52,4
51
-3,8
-19
Cuba
51,2
58
52,3
53
1,1
5
Hungary
62,7
11
52
54
-10,7
-43
Tunisia
50,8
61
51,8
55
1
6
Georgia
-
-
51,5
56
-
-
Uganda
48,7
77
51,3
57
2,6
20
Moldova
54,5
39
51,2
58
-3,3
-19
Zambia
49,5
69
51,1
59
1,6
10
Senegal
47,6
81
51,1
60
3,5
21
Bosnia51,3
Hezzegovina
55
51
61
-0,3
-6
Israel
50,4
63
50,9
62
0,5
1
Tanzania
48,1
80
50,3
63
2,2
17
Nicaragua
51,8
51
50,2
64
-1,6
-13
148
46,1
91
50,2
65
4,1
26
Madagascar
38,8
128
50,2
66
11,4
62
Greece
50,9
60
50,1
67
-0,8
-7
Italy
47,2
83
50,1
68
2,9
15
Cambodia
45,6
97
50,1
69
4,5
28
Mongolia
54,2
42
50
70
-4,2
-28
Bulgaria
49,3
71
50
71
0,7
0
Gambia
44,7
102
50
72
5,3
30
Thailand
51,6
54
49,8
73
-1,8
-19
Malawi
47,3
82
49,3
74
2
8
Spain
54,1
44
48,8
75
-5,3
-3,1
Indonesia
45,1
100
48,8
76
3,7
24
Kazakhstan
46,5
88
48,6
77
2,1
11
Guenia
Bissau
38,8
127
48,6
78
9,8
49
Sri Lanka
51,3
57
48,5
79
-2,8
-22
Kyrgyzstan
51,3
56
48,4
80
-2,9
-24
Venezuela
53
48
48,1
81
-4,9
-33
Guinea
45,3
98
48,1
82
2,8
16
Oman
40,2
120
47,9
83
7,7
37
Jordan
51,7
53
47,8
84
-3,9
-31
Combined
Kingdom
149
Nepal
45,2
99
47,7
85
2,5
14
Benin
45,7
94
47,5
86
1,8
8
Honduras
53,1
47
47,4
87
-5,7
-40
Serbia and Montenegro
-
47,3
88
-
-88
Canary
Islands
-
-
47,3
89
-
-
Macedonia
47,2
84
47,2
90
0
-6
Turkey
50,8
62
46,6
91
-4,2
-29
Czech
Republic
50,2
64
46,6
92
-3,6
-28
Romenia
50
66
46,2
93
-3,8
-27
South Africa
48,7
76
46,2
94
-2,5
-18
Mexico
45,9
93
46,2
95
0,3
-2
Algeria
49,4
70
46
96
-3,4
-26
Burkina
Faso
45
101
45,7
97
0,7
4
Azerbaijan
41,8
113
45,4
98
3,6
15
Nigeria
36,7
133
45,4
99
8,7
34
Kenya
46,3
89
45,3
100
-1
-11
India
41,6
116
45,2
101
3,6
15
Poland
46,7
87
45
102
-1,7
-15
Chad
45,7
95
45
103
-0,7
8
Niger
39,4
123
45
104
5,6
19
150
Mozambique 51,1
59
44,8
105
-6,3
-46
Morocco
49,1
72
44,8
106
-4,3
-34
Rwanda
40,6
119
44,8
107
4,2
12
Jamaica
40,1
121
44,7
108
4,6
13
Ukraine
35
136
44,7
109
9,7
27
United Arab 25,7
Emirates
141
44,6
110
18,9
31
Togo
44,3
105
44,5
111
0,2
-6
Belgium
39,1
125
44,4
112
5,3
13
Bangladesh
46,9
86
44,1
113
-2,8
-27
Democratic
43,3
Republic of
Congo
109
44,1
114
0,8
-5
Guetemala
49,6
67
44
115
-5,6
-48
Egyptian
48,8
74
44
116
-4,8
-42
El Salvador
48,7
75
43,8
117
-4,9
-42
Syria
43,6
107
43,8
118
0,2
-11
Deminic
Republic
48,4
79
43,7
119
-4,7
-40
Liberia
37,7
130
43,4
120
5,7
10
Sierra Leone
36,5
134
43,4
121
6,9
13
South Korea
35,9
135
43
122
7,1
13
Angola
42,4
110
42,9
123
0,5
-13
Resource: WEF 2005
151
142 countries in 2002 and 146 countries in 2005 were evaluated from the aspect of country
index. All the countries except Guayana, Georgia, Ivory Coasts and Somalia were both in
2002 and 2005 country index.
In the table given the index average of all countries in 2002 was 49,7 and 49,9 in 2005. But
when 2002 and 2005 index values are compared, a decrease in most of the countries has been
seen. This situation indicates that environmental sustainability has decreased or it may be
because of the difference in two years indicators.
However, significant changes in country rankings can be observed. For example, Madagascar
ascends from being 128th to 66th , Japan from 78th to the 30th, Mali from 85th to 41st ,
Russia from 73rd to 33rd , Malaysia from 68th to the 38th order , but Zimbabwe descends
from being 46th to 128th, Guatemala from 67th to 115th , Egypt from 74th to 116th, and
Hungary from 11th to 54th. Turkey has 50,8 points in 2002 Index with an order of 62. In
2005 Turkey has 46,6 points and descends to the 91th order. Turkey is over the avarage in
2002 while it is under the avarage in 2005.
In this study we try to compare the two Environmental Sustainability Index in 2002 and 2005
for the world countries. This situation shows the index is very sensitive to the choice of
indicator. Low-scoring countries in 2002 are Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, North Korea,
Iraq and Saudi Arabia, while in the 2005 study, North Korea, Iraq, Taiwan, Turkmenistan and
Uzbekistan, countries receive the lowest score The highest rated 5 countries in the 2002
Environmental Sustainability Index are: Finland, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Switzerland,
while in 2005 they are: Finland, Norway, Uruguay, Sweden and Iceland. Common features of
these countries have significant natural resources and population density is low.
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Utilising Information Systems for Measuring Impact on Social Sustainability: Survey of
Microcredit Organisations in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Alica Pandzo1, Kemal Taljanovic1, Selma Jahic2
1University Sarajevo School of Science and Technology
Department of Information Systems
Bistrik 7, 71000 Sarajevo,Bosnia and Herzegovina
2Executive Director for Credit Operations
Microcredit Foundation Partner
15. Maja bb, Trzni Centar Sjenjak, 75000 Tuzla,Bosnia and Herzegovina
Abstract
Microfinance has been used as a tool for social sustainability and development since the
1970s. In microfinance, assessment of social sustainability is often conducted through client
impact monitoring. This study explores the impact measurement practices of microcredit
organisations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and their use of information systems in this process.
We draw on the latest trends of using shared measurement systems for impact monitoring, to
point out the potential of using such systems to achieve sustainable impact on wider social
issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This paper outlines the roles and responsibilities that
different stakeholders should play in the system development process.
Keywords: microfinance, microcredit, Bosnia and Herzegovina, social impact, information
systems, ICT, shared measurement systems.
154
1.INTRODUCTION
Since its conception, microfinance has been promoted as an essential economic tool for social
sustainability and poverty alleviation. Microfinance is based on a premise that providing
financial services (most commonly in form of credit) to the most vulnerable populations, who
would otherwise not have access to standard bank financing, would empower people to get
out of poverty by capitalizing on their own skills and ideas. In developing and post-conflict
countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), microfinance has been used as a tool to
raise employment and revive economic activity by targeting micro-business by microcredit
organisations (MCOs). This ‘bottom up’ approach has received popularity as an alternative to
the traditional top-down approach used by international aid organisations to stimulate
economic growth and development through various projects and funds delivered to
governments of developing countries.
Even though microfinance has been around since the 1970, there is still no agreement on the
real impact of microfinance. While many studies have shown results of positive economic
and social impact of microfinance (Dunn, 2005) the appropriateness of different tools and
methods applied is often questionable and makes them impossible to compare. This has
contributed to growing criticism of microfinance in recent years (Bateman 2007, 2010, 2011).
A recent study assessing the use of microfinance in BiH (Welle-Strand et al., 2010) concludes
that microfinance is a better tool for improving individual economic performance of micro
finance institutions (MFI) and their individual clients, than for achieving broader social goals.
What is clear is that amidst such hard times and controversy, having a clear social mission
and the ability to track and measure organisations realisation of that mission and goals, is of
increasing importance for individual MCO and the microfinance sector as a whole. It is also
clear that major social issues such as poverty or equality cannot be solved by any single
institution or type of organisation. Collaborative efforts and sharing of information and
knowledge are needed.
The increasing capability and availability of Information and Communication Technologies
(ICTs), is allowing innovative solutions to be applied in this field supporting collaboration
and resulting in resource and cost savings, while maximising outputs. The latest trends in
impact measurement systems are the development of web-based systems which coordinate
efforts of impact monitoring by many different organisations who share the same social
goals.
The goal of this study is to assess the current practices and potentials of using information
systems to support realisation of social mission and goals of microfinance organisations in
Bosnia and Herzegovina. In order to do this, we focus on answering the following research
questions: 1. Do MCOs have a systematic approach to measuring their social performance
and impact? 2. Do MCOs have the necessary ICT infrastructure and capabilities to support
impact monitoring? 3. How can information systems be used to more accurately and
efficiently measure social impact of microcredit at the level of BiH?
155
We first provide an overview of microfinance as a tool of social sustainability and
development and introduce the innovative ways in which ICTs are being used to
facilitate/enhance the process of social performance and impact measurement. We then
present the findings of an empirical study of social impact measurement practices among
MCOs in BiH. Recommendations are given for strengthening social performance and impact
monitoring practices of the microfinance sector in BiH by applying the most innovative ICT
trends in the field.
2. OVERVIEW OF MICROFINANCE
2.1 Social sustainability and microfinance
Social sustainability is an element of sustainable development which “occurs when the formal
and informal processes, systems, structures and relationships actively support the capacity of
current and future generations to create healthy and liveable communities. Socially
sustainable communities are equitable, diverse, connected and democratic and provide a good
quality of life” (Barron & Gauntlett, 2002). At a practical level, social sustainability
assessment is often conducted through social impact assessment by focusing on principles
such as income and employment, education, skills, consumption or participation (Oman and
Spangerberg in Colantonio, 2009).
Microfinance was pioneered in the late 1970’s by a Bangladeshi banker and economist,
Muhammed Yunus, who used small credits as a way to provide self employment to people
(primarily women) who had talent but no money. Such people could not access regular loan
facilities through banks as they had no collateral, were unemployed or worked in the informal
sector hence could not prove income generation. Hence, they would often fall prey to loan
sharks charging huge interest rates (Kumar, 2010).
The aim of most MCOs today is poverty alleviation, while many also focus on small business
start-ups, employment generation, empowerment of women, increasing level of education
among children and youth, etc. Poverty eradication is also the no.1 Millennium Development
Goal (MDG) with a target of cutting extreme poverty in the world by half by the year 2015.
To help achieve this goal, the UN designated 2005 as the International Year or Microcredit,
with a goal of promoting access to finance to the poor.
It is now estimated that 160 million people in developing countries are today served by
microfinance through MFIs which range from small non profit organisations to large
commercial banks. In addition to microcredit, some offer other services such as deposit,
saving accounts, financial and business advice or marketing and technology services. The
average interest rate charged by MFIs is 27%, which is significantly higher than what is
charged by the banks (CGAP, 2006). High interest rates are justified by higher risk profile of
this client category and high administrative costs of serving clients in remote areas
156
Even though the terms 'social performance' and 'social impact' are often used
interchangeably, it is important to stress the difference between the two. The Social
Performance Taskforce defines social performance as “the effective translation of an
institution’s mission into practice in line with accepted social values” so it is concerned with
effectiveness of internal organisational processes in order to achieve the organisational
mission. Social impact, is the improvement in the lives of people that can be directly linked to
organisations activities (SPT, n.d.). Social impact is therefore just one element of social
performance.
2.2 Microfinance in Bosnia and Herzegovina
BiH has a population of 3.8 million (BiH Agency for Statistics, n.d.). Microfinance was first
introduced to BiH in 1996, shortly after the war ended, through a Local Initiatives
Microfinance Project (LIP I) financed by the World Bank and a number of donor countries.
First MCOs issued loans to micro-businesses (both formal and informal), who were affected
by the war and otherwise had no access to regular credit lines.
Currently there are 23 MCOs registered in BiH, of which 19 are non-profit microcredit
foundations (MCF) and 4 are profit microcredit companies (MCC). Both types of institutions
are limited to providing credit services, while deposit taking is reserved only for banks. The
Association of Microfinance Institutions (AMFI) was formally set up in 2003 as a network
which promotes synergies and allows knowledge sharing and transparency between its
members. Today, the 12 largest MCOs in BiH are members of AMFI and together they cover
more than 98% of the market share in the country.
After 10 years of flourishing growth, end of 2008 marked the start of a crisis for the
microfinance sector in BiH. The downturn closely followed the 2008 economic crisis. The
most quoted reason for it by industry experts is the over-indebtedness of clients. The overindebtedness was caused by concentrated market competition and erosion of MFI lending
discipline (Chen, Rasmussen, & Reille, 2010). At the end of 2011 the total portfolio of the
microfinance sector in BiH was at EUR 308 million, which is drastically down from its peak
of EUR 699 million at the end of 2008.The sector is now showing signs of improvement and
recovery. Total MCO sector has recorded a profit in 2011 (EUR 6.9 million), after two years
of significant sector losses (Banking Agency of FBiH and Banking Agency of RS, 2012).
3. ICT ENABLED TRENDS AND INNOVATION
There is quite a lot of guidance and information about tools and methods used for social
performance monitoring (SIM Pilot project, 2008, p.6), however there is very little about the
use, effects and role of ICTs in supporting this process. As majority of MCOs operate in
157
developing countries and remote areas they commonly have a problem with a lack of basic
reliable ICT infrastructure and lack of local knowledge (Blantz, 2010).
Another common problem of effective outcome measurement is that it is made up of isolated
efforts, using non standardised methods and indicators, producing results which cannot be
compared. Major social issues such as poverty or child education cannot be solved by efforts
of any single program or type of organisation. There is also a lot of duplication of effort, time
and resources as organisations with the same objectives try to measure and evaluate their
outcomes. Such issues, combined with the advancements in ICT have led many organisations
to develop innovative web-based systems for coordinating efforts in measuring performance
and outcomes of hundreds or thousands of social enterprises within a field (Kramer,
Parkhurst, Vaidyanathan, 2009).
A report produced by FSG (Kramer, Parkhurst, Vaidyanathan, 2009) provides details of 20
such systems and groups them into three different categories, characteristics and benefits of
which are summarised in the Table 1.
Table 1: Characteristics and benefits of shared measurement systems (Source: adapted from
FSG report)
158
Such systems can provide numerous advantages to all organisations with a social mission and
a need to measure performance and outcomes, including MFIs. Setting up such systems
requires strong leadership and engagement of different organisations in the design phase. It
also requires substantial funding through a multi – layer development period (Kramer,
Parkhurst, Vaidyanathan, 2009). Participating organisations often pay a fee to have access to
data a report generation, while they also input their own data into the system.
4.RESEARCH STUDY ON SOCIAL IMPACT MEASUREMENT PRACTICES OF
MCOs IN BIH
4.1.Research Methodology
Current ICT capability and impact measurement practices of MCOs in BiH were studied
using a survey questionnaire and follow-up interviews. The data was collected during March
and April, 2012. The survey was sent to the person in charge of ICT (IT managers) in all 23
registered MCOs, however for most organisations marketing manager and IT managers both
took part in completing the survey. The survey questions can be grouped in the following
main areas: Organisational goals and services; ICT infrastructure, ICT use and management;
Impact measurement process; Perceptions.
4.2 Analysis of results
We received a total of 10 survey responses of which 6 were followed up with phone
interviews. The survey response rate of 43% is considered satisfactory as the survey was sent
to all existing BiH MCOs and the 10 institutions that have responded cover 75% percent of
the microcredit market in BiH. One of the respondents is registered as a microcredit
company, while the others are microcredit foundations. Figure 1. shows the distribution of
surveyed MCOs.
159
Figure 1: Size of MCOs according to portfolio size (left) and number of active loans (right).
4.2.1 Organisational goals
The prime target market for 60% of respondents is the low income population and hence their
primary development goals are poverty reduction and employment generation. Second highly
ranked target market are women, followed by micro-businesses. On average, 68% of clients
are from rural areas. Average loan amount issued is EUR 1,123.
4.2.2 ICT infrastructure and spending
Our results show that MCOs in BiH are overall well equipped with reliable ICT
infrastructure. All credit officers and office staff have PCs and use PCs them in everyday
tasks. 40% of organisations also supply their field credit officers with laptops and 30% with
mobile or smart phones. All credit officers have e-mail accounts which they use daily and
have access to internet at their offices. These are pleasing results considering that a survey of
internet usage in BiH conducted by GFK in 2009, (in UNDP, 2010: 175) showed that only
30% of BiH companies have internet connections.
50% of MCOs have their offices linked via a VPN, while all offices have their PCs linked in
a local network. MCOs employing over 50 staff have IT/IS departments, whereas the smaller
ones usually have one person in charge of all ICT in the organisation. Very little attention is
paid to strategic use of information systems which is reflected by non existence of IT strategy
in 70% of surveyed MCOs. Use of cross functional information systems is also low.
Enterprise Resource Planning system is implemented in one and Management Information
Systems are used in 50% of the surveyed MCOs. None of the MCOs indicated use of CRM,
GIS, DSS, KMS or Experts Systems.
160
4.2.3 Impact measurement practices
Only two of the survey participants, collect information which is used in social impact
measurement. MCF EKI (EKI) was found to have a systematic approach to measuring
impact of microcredit on poverty – their primary development goal. EKI’s strategic goal is to
service 40% of poor clients, and at least 5% of these clients to achieve a significant
improvement within 12 months of taking out a loan. In order to measure achievement of this
end statement, EKI has developed its own poverty assessment method, which is used to
categorise all clients at the time they first take out a loan. Indicators used in this
categorization are: income, education, housing, formal employment, no. of children, place of
residence and physical ability. A point scale is applied, and all client scoring over 6 points are
categorized as poor. 12 months later, a sample of 300 clients from the poor category are
followed up in focus groups to assess whether there has been any significant improvement in
their quality of life. To assess quality of life EKI uses a second set of indicators which
include: monthly household income, possession of a car / PC / LCD, internet access, level of
competed education, preventative healthcare, travel outside of place of residence, etc. EKI
holds about 8 – 10 focus groups every year at different locations. The results are a
combination of qualitative and quantitative data (MKF EKI, 2009). Field staff collects
information from clients in paper form. Back at the office, the data is inputted into a webbased, in-house developed system for collecting and analyzing impact data.
MCF Partner (Partner) was founded by Mercy Corps in late 2000. Partner is focused on
creation of jobs, increased income and creating a more stable environment. Partner's target
population is rural (84.91% of active clients) and women (42.62 % of active clients) (Partner,
n.d). Partner has initiated the incorporation of social performance management (SPM) into all
business processes, which include: strategic planning, client relationships (loyalty and
adjusting our service and product offer to clients' needs), financial management, human
resources, information systems and organisational culture. Poverty measurement tools used
by Partner are per capita household expenditure and per capita household income.
Another MCO, not included in our results, who has been actively managing its social
performance and impact is MCF Prizma (Prizma). With 67,742 active borrowers, and
employing over 250 staff, Prizma is also amongst the largest MCOs in BiH (Prizma MKF,
n.d). Prizma explicitly targets poor entrepreneurs (primarily women). Like EKI, Prizma has
developed its own poverty assessment scorecard which is used in poverty monitoring by
assessing clients on entry and every time they take out a new loan. The following indicators
are included as part of the poverty scorecard: education level of woman partner or household
head, residence, employment status, family size, the frequency of the consumption of luxury
foods (sweets and meat) and the ownership of a television, stereo and motor vehicle (IFAD,
2009, p.35). Prizma also conducts exit monitoring twice a year, using semi-structured
interviews. The third component of Prizma’s social performance monitoring system are focus
groups, used to obtain information on reaching, serving and impacting the target market
(Crnkic, 2010). The Social Performance Management information system at Prizma is
161
developed internally and consists of five core components: monitoring poverty outreach,
monitoring the change of poverty status, exit monitoring, client satisfaction monitoring and
focus group discussions.
4.2.4 Perceptions
The final section of the questionnaire looks at participants perceptions regarding the
effectiveness of the outcome measurement process within their organisation, the use of ICT
by staff in general and use of ICT to support the outcome measurement process. Table 2
show the average answers to those questions. Scale: 1- strongly disagree, 5 – strongly agree.
Question
Average
The results of measuring the impact of microcredit are of great importance to 3.8
strategic planning in our organisation
The process of measuring impact is of crucial importance to our organisation
3.7
My organisation has effective, systematic approach to measuring social impact 2.1
on customers.
My organisation is using ICT to support the process of social impact 2
measurement in the best possible way
Employees of my organisation are highly capable in conducting their everyday 4
work tasks using a computer.
Employees within my organisation are willing to accept new technologies and 3.8
adjust to the new ways of carrying out their work.
MIS in my organisation is highly effective for collecting, analysing and 3.3
reporting on our social impact.
The existing system for measuring impact of microcredit allows us for effective 2.5
monitoring of the realisation of our strategic goals.
The existing system for measuring impact of microcredit allows us to 2.5
effectively evaluate our existing products and develop new products.
Government of BiH should work more on setting up a system of social 4.5
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Question
Average
performance monitoring.
Having access to a central database of social performance measures at the level 4.5
of Bosnia and Herzegovina would be of great value to our organisation.
We are willing to share the results of our measurements with other 4.2
organisations for mutual benefits.
Table 2: Perceptions category averages
Some MCOs who in the previous section answered that they do not collect data that can be
used for social impact measurement rated the effectiveness of their process and MIS in
supporting the impact measurement process, fairly highly. We interpret this inconsistency as
an indication of a lack of understanding of the social impact measurement process. A large
majority of the MCOs agrees that a central database of social performance measures at the
state level is needed (questions j. and k. in table 2). There is also a very high level of
willingness to share the results of measurements with other organisations for mutual benefits
(4.2). MCOs appear to have highly skilled IT staff and employees who are willing to embrace
new technologies.
We also asked the participants to rate which of the given issues pose the biggest obstacle to
the optimisation of the social impact measurement process for their organisation. Table 3
shows the total points awarded to each issue. Scale: 1 – smallest issue, 5 – biggest issue.
Stated issue
Total
Points
Lack of coordination at the level of the sector
44
Lack or inconsistency of legislation
42
Lack of human resources for conducting field studies
38
Lack of knowledge about impact measurement methods
36
Lack of accurate information received from clients
34
Lack of information about the benefits of impact studies for MCOs
32
Lack of awareness about the need to measure impact
30
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Lack of financial resources
30
Lack of skilled IT staff
26
Lack of management support
20
Table 3: Perceived obstacles for optimisation of the impact measurement process
Highest ranking issue was the lack of coordination at the level of the sector (44). This
indicates that there is an agreement amongst MCOs about the need to pool efforts and
minimise duplication. Lack of financial resources and field staff was rated as an issue by
smaller MCOs. Lack of skilled IT staff and management support was consistently rated as a
low issue across all MCOs.
4.2.5.Discussion
Our results show that MCOs in BiH are overall well equipped with reliable ICT
infrastructure. MCOs also appear to have (based on their perceptions) highly skilled IT staff
and employees capable of using ICT to perform their business tasks and willing to embrace
new technologies. However, very little attention is paid to strategic use of information
systems which is reflected by non existence of IT policy in 70% of surveyed MCOs. ICTs
should be viewed as one of key organisational resources and not just as a support function or
a cost. This means that ICT can play a crucial role in realisation of organisational goals.
Organisational goals (social and financial) have to be aligned with IT goals and applications
must be developed and implemented according to those plans in order to ensure that goals are
achieved most efficiently.
Overall, MCOs in BiH show a low commitment to systematically managing their social
performance and measuring social impact. Majority do not have systems in place for
assessing and tracking the realisation of their social mission. Reports and data presented on
MCOs websites is focused on financial indicators, with social indicators being obviously
neglected. MCOs need to put more effort into showing equal commitment to both elements of
the double-bottom-line. This study found only three MCOs who have placed considerable
amount of effort in systematically managing their social performance. All three are funded by
international aid agencies for whom social performance is a key issue These MCOs have built
notable internal expertise in managing social performance and two have developed their own
measurement tools and methods such as the poverty assessment scorecard developed by MCF
Prizma (IFAD, 2006 p.35 and Crnkic, 2010) and MCF EKI (MKF EKI, 2009).
During phone interviews 4 MCOs said that they had to put in a lot of time and effort into
conducting assessment of market potential studies, as no statistical data was readily available.
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Availability of measure such as (household income, average pay, level of education, etc.)
would have cut down on time and duplication of effort across MCOs. BiH has undergone
many changes over the last 20 years, especially after the war in early 1990s .The last census
was conducted just before the war broke out in 1992. Many people have migrated since then
or have been displaced. Because of this lack of centrally managed data, there is a lot of
duplication of effort and resources in the MCO and NGO sector in general.
Centralised data is currently available through AMFI and the Central Bank of BiH. AMFI
members quarterly report on financial data which is distributed to all members. The Central
Credit Registry of Central Bank of BiH is a database off all individuals and legal entities in
the country indebted with commercial banks, microcredit organisations, savings - credit
organisations and Leasing. This registry is used for checking client credit history by the same
institutions and the registry is updated daily since April 2012 (Public relations of CBBH,
2012).
5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The goal of this research was to assess the current practices of using information systems to
support realisation of social mission and strategic goals of microfinance organisations in
Bosnia and Herzegovina. Our findings show that the existing ICT infrastructure capabilities
are at a pleasing level but they are not being effectively used by MCOs for monitoring and
evaluating their social mission. We recommend that the best way to achieve better results in
this field is by developing a shared measurement system for impact monitoring at the level of
microcredit sector in BiH. Use of such system would enable the coordination of efforts within
the microcredit sector which is necessary in order to achieve broader social goals. Further
research is needed to investigate the most appropriate type of shared measurement system,
impact measurement methodologies and measures that should be reported on.
Implementation of such systems is not an easy task and relies on commitment from various
stakeholders. We will try to briefly outline the possible responsibilities of those different
stakeholders. Donors and creditors can play a big part by funding different phases of shared
system development. They can also influence MCOs to pay more attention to achieving their
social mission, by putting more weight on evidence of social performance management
practices when providing future financing to MCOs. The association of microfinance
institutions in BiH – AMFI has a big role to play in promoting, educating and raising
awareness about social performance management practices among its members. They should
further promote the achievements that some of their members have made in this field and
encourage collaboration. AMFI could also be the central coordinator for the planning and
development of the shared system of impact measurement at the sector level. Another
possible coordinating body could be the Central Bank of BiH. Whoever decides to take on
this complex task needs to show good leadership and coordination ability.
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A possible limitation could be the willingness of MCOs to provide social data on their clients
and the regulatory limitations regarding privacy of information. Even though participants in
our study indicated high level of willingness to share data, this should be further explored.
Accuracy of data provided by clients may also be an issue, as indicated by participants of our
study. Use of shared systems for impact measurement should be further explored by the
microfinance sector in BiH as it has potential to play a key role in solving major social
problems. Further research is needed to investigate the most appropriate type of shared
measurement system, impact measurement methodologies and measures that should be
reported on.
REFERENCES
Banking Agency of Federation of BiH. (2012). Information about the microcredit system of
Bosnia and Herzegovina, on 31-12-2011. Sarajevo, BiH. Retrieved from
http://www.fba.ba/images/Micro_Documents/Informacija_MKO_31122011_bos.pdf
Banking Agency of Republic of Srpska. (2012). Report on the current state of the banking
system of Republic of Srpska as at 31-12-2011. Banja Luka, BiH.
Barron, L. & Gauntlett, E. (2002). Stage 1 report – Model of social sustainability, Housing
and sustainable communities indicators project. Perth, Australia: WACOSS.
Bateman, M. (2007). De-industrialization and social disintegration in Bosnia. In T. Dicher &
M. Harper (Eds.) What’s wrong with microfinance? Warwichshire: Intermediate Technology
Publications.
Bateman, M. (2010). Why doesn’t microfinance work? The destructive rise of neoliberalism.
New York, NY: Zed Books.
Bateman, M. (2011). Confronting microfinance: Undermining Sustainable Development.
Sterling, USA: Kumarian Press. ISBN 978-1-56549-341-4.
Dunn, E., (2005) Impact of microcredit on clients in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Final report (in
Bosnian, translated) Sarajevo and Banja Luka: LIP II.
BiH Agency for statistics. (n.d). Retrieved from http://www.bhas.ba/
Blantz, E. (2010). Accelerating microfinance impact with ICT: Learning from Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sierra Leone. San Francisco, CA: Inveneo. Retrieved from
http://www.inveneo.org/download/accelerating_microfinance_impact_with_ict_03_2010.pdf
CGAP. (2006). Why do MFIs charge high
http://www.cgap.org/p/site/c/template.rc/1.26.1309/
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Washington,
DC:
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Colantonio, A. (2009). Social sustainability. Linking research to policy and practice. Paper
presented at the conference “Sustainable development: A challenge for European research”,
Brussels, 26- 26th May 2009.
Crnkic, K. (2010). Managing social performance through integrated approach – Prizma case
study. Collection of monographs No.13. Madrid, Spain: Foro nantik lum de microfinanzas.
ISBN: 978-84-693-2691-6.
IFAD, (2006). Assesing and managing social performance in microfinance. Rome, Italy:
IFAD. Retrieved from http://www.ifad.org/ruralfinance/pub/performance.pdf
Kramer, M., Parkhurst, M., & Vaidyanathan L. (2009). Breakthroughs in shared
measurement and social impact. FSG Social Impact Advisors. Retrieved from www.fsg.org
Kumar, V. (2010, April 15). Need to draw a line between microfinance and loan sharking:
Prof
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focus.
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MKF
EKI.
(2009).
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lines.
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Partner MKF, (n.d) Partner Microcredit Foundation. Retrieved from http://www.partner.ba
Prizma MKF. (n.d). Welcome to the Microcredit Foundation Prizma. Retrieved from
http://www.prizma.ba/index.php?lang=en
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Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Sarajevo 26.04.2012. Retrieved from
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Social Performance Taskforce (SPT). (n.d) What is social performance? Retrieved from
http://www.sptf.info/what-is-social-performance
SIM pilot project. (2008). Social impact measurement: Project document. Results of a pilot
project to develop a tool for measuring social impact of microfinance. Dakar - Fann, Senegal:
INAFI International Foundation.
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Report for South East Europe - 2nd Edition, Sarajevo: UNDP
Welle-Strand, A., Kjollesdal, K. & Sitter, N. (2010). Assesing microfinance: The Bosnia and
Herzegovina case. Journal Managing global transitions, Volume 8, Issue 2, pages 145 – 166.
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 – Characteristics and benefits of shared measurement systems.
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Table 2 – Perceptions category averages.
Table 3 – Perceived obstacles for optimisation of the impact measurement process
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 - Size of MCOs according to portfolio size and number of active loans.
Web Technologies In Education
GünayKarli1, Miljković Adnan2
1International Burch University, Sarajevo – B&H
2Bosna Sema – Educational Institutions, Sarajevo – B&H
Abstract
Web technologies are rapidly taking over the traditionally used desktop applications.
Depending on the purpose of the use, web technologies can provide more flexible and
scalable solutions. In this paper we describe the specific use of web technologies in B&H. IT
in the educational field in B&H is still under rise, and several projects have been
developed.This paper describes a project called Smart School that has a rise as an alternative
to the current solutions available on the market. Smart School meets the requirement set for a
stable, scalable and secure application.
1.INTRODUCTION
In order to develop and deliver an application in the educational field few aspects should be
taken into consideration. A modern application in education would allow usage by several
different groups of users, including teacher/professors, students, administrative workers, head
of department and other decision making groups. Web applications provide the ability to
build a solution, which can be used from any location and from any device in world. In this
paper we describe the information systems used in education for management of student’s
information, such as marks, attendances, comments and any other resource that can be
utilized to track the achievement/progress of a student. In this paper we focus only on
solutions used in primary and secondary schools.
For specific examples and comparison, an application already used in education is evaluated,
and as it do now satisfy the current needs, a detailed work is presented on an alternative
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solution called “Smart School”, which has been developed and is currently used by 8 schools
in 4 cantons of B&H. “Smart school” is a web application that manages all school resources,
providing access to school employees such as teacher to populate data about a student, and on
the other side provides feedback to students and parents. “Smart School” differentiates itself
from the other solutions, by having a much easier and friendly user interface allowing simple
and fast access. A special commitment has been made in the field of security, where all data
is encrypted and passed through secure layers. The security level in “Smart School” is similar
to the one used in the banking industry. “Smart School” for the first time in the educational
system in B&H introduces the 2-step verification process for the user authentication by
utilizing security tokens for generating one time password.
2.CURRENT STATE OF IT IN B&H
Information technologies are constantly emerging in all sectors of businesses in B&H. Many
businesses use now the latest technologies and software available on the global market to
perform everyday tasks easier, faster and with more quality. This is mainly due to the fact
that businesses have to evolve and keep on innovating in order to stay competitive over the
competition. Unfortunately this is not the case in the educational sector in B&H. The primary
and secondary schools are back behind the use of IT technologies in education. The primary
and secondary education on a large base still depends on the traditional way of teaching with
the conventional methods.
During the school year 2005, the Sarajevo Canton Ministry of Education, introduced for the
first time in B&H, an information system for schools in Canton Sarajevo CS called Education
Management Information System EMIS. The purpose of EMIS is to collect data from
schools, and stores it on centralized databases. The collected data is used for statistical
purposes by the Ministry(UTIC, 2012). EMIS collects all data about a school including the
students, staff, premises and school inventory. EMIS offers the possibility to print student
transcripts at the end of the school year. In order to achieve the following, schools are
entering student marks after the end of each term. Today after more than 6 years EMIS has
retain its functionality in Canton Sarajevo. The main drawbacks of EMIS are its limited
functionality, where it is just a statistical application, which has the ability to collect data
twice a year. This is mainly due to the complicated use of the application and the lack of
knowledge by the staff in schools. The Ministry started with the campaign of basic education
of teachers in CS just last October 2011(Logosoft, 2011). This campaign included basic
education of teachers with the use of Microsoft line of products such as Windows 7 and
Office 2010.
Bosna Sema as a private educational institution has recognized the need to elevate the current
educational system in B&H to a higher and more quality level. Bosna Sema has 8 primary
and secondary educational schools in four cantons in B&H(Bosna Sema, 2011). Following
the fact that the primary and secondary schools are mandatory in B&H for all students, the
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need to involve even more the parents in the everyday aspect of a school arose. Bosna Sema
recognized the need to constantly provide feedback of student’s performances and receive
feedback from the parents. This private institution has 3 schools in the Canton Sarajevo
where it is using and supporting EMIS for those schools. Unfortunately EMIS does not
satisfy the needs of this private institution, toprovide an educational system that is transparent
and able to involve the parents in the process of education. Following these requirements
Bosna Sema has started a joint venture with an IT company to development an application
that will meet all of the requirements set for the new and better tracking of educational
system in B&H. The project started in 2010 under the name Smart School.
3.SMART SCHOOL
Smart school is a set of applications that manage all school resources, providing access to
school employees such as teacher to populate data about a student, and on the opposite side
provides feedback to students and parents. On top of those groups of users, additional
decision making users are involved as well. Smart School provides detailed reports about
school wide data to school principals, and executive boards. The implementation of Smart
School in schools in different cantons of B&H, allows this project to be compatible and
satisfy each canton’s possible specific need. Smart School closely follows to cover and give
access to each parent and student. Following this guideline, parents and students can receive
feedback from Smart School with different mechanisms, including access by internet and
mobile phones.
3.1.Smart School Architecture
Smart school is built as three-tier architecture, being composed of a data, application and
presentation tier. In order to cope with the scalability, performance and efficiency, each of
those reside on separate hardware with high speed interconnection in between.
The bottom layer which represents the data tier is where the databases reside. The data tier
acts independently from the above tiers. Smart School uses MySQL for the databases.
MySQL is the world's most popular open source database software, used by hundred
thousands of companies all around the world(MySQL). This database software covers the
current needs for Smart School.
The next tier is the application tier, which covers all of the business logic in Smart School.
The application tier communicates with the database in the data tier. The application tier
exposes different methods for the above tier though web services. This tier always
authenticates each remote request and if accessed by an authorized user, presents the
transformed data from the data to the presentation tier. This tier handles request from
different presentation applications, and offers different type of data representation.
Depending on the type of request the web services can return the data in either Extensible
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Markup Language XML or JavaScript Object Notation JSON. The traditional XML allows
the representation of data to be both human and machine readable, but often contains
repeated tags that describe data. XML is acceptable when exchanging data between high
speed connections, but has downsides when it comes to transfer between slow connections, as
the case when using mobile internet over mobile providers. In this kind of transfer it is very
important to transfer the data as lightweight as possible. In order to cope with this kind of
speed and bandwidth issues, JSON is used to return data in Smart School. JSON is very
similar to an array or vector in major programming language. It is language independent and
many languages include default implementation to read and parse this format of data. In
Smart School, JSON is primarily used for data exchange between the mobile apps and this
tier.
Smart School has several implementation of the presentation tier. This tier first authenticates
with the application tier, and then communicates with different requests and replies. The
following components make up the presentation tier: Administration Web and Parent/Student
Web. The administration web component is a web application that represents the user
interface for the entire Smart School. This component allows the authorized users to manage
the entire system from a web app. The application exchanged the information with the web
services. As the school users have different privileges and overview of the system from the
one of parents and students, two separate components have been created. The Parent/Student
component has only modules that are directly related to a single student overview. This
separation is primarily for security reason and potential bugs in the system, but as well to
offer a simplified overview of modules just for parents and students.
3.2.Smart School Feedback Modules
In order to cover the targeted user groups of Smart School, the following main feedback
modules have been introduced:
Student performance/tracking Module
Reporting Module
Parent/Student Module
3.2.1.Student performance/tracking module
This module is used by the user groups that are consisted of subject teachers. The teachers are
assigned to subject from the administrative module, and can only manage students enrolled in
the teacher’s subjects. From this module the teacher can send and receive messages from
parent and students. The teacher can easily and quickly get and overview of the subject
average, and get details about the students above and beyond the given thresholds in average.
All information from this module can be exported as spreadsheet and managed in locally on
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computer from any spreadsheet tools such as Microsoft Excel or LibreOffice Calc. If a
teacher is assigned the role of a class teacher (class manager), additional functionalities are
available. Those functionalities enable the class teacher to manage task such as getting
collective reports about an entire class, preparing data for parent meeting and scheduling
parents meetings by sending bulk emails and short messages to parent mobile phones.
Additionally the class teacher is responsible for the behavior tracking of each student in the
assigned class.
3.2.2.Reporting Module
In order to get overall feedbacks from any application, a reporting module is necessary. The
reporting module in Smart School is a collection of predefined reports that given detailed
insights about data in the system. The reporting module is used by different groups of users,
with the ability to access different types and levels of reports. Apart the predefined reports, a
dynamic form allows to create reports on the fly with custom joined data. At the first level,
users with teacher privileges can query reports with data about their teaching subjects, and
enrolled students. The next level allows the school principals to get school wide report. In
those reports the school principal has detailed overview of all teachers, subjects and students.
The reports are always collecting direct data from the databases, so they always show the
accurate image of the data.
In order to provide a higher level of reports over multiple schools, additional two more levels
were added. Bosna Sema, which has several schools in several cantons use those levels, one
for the head of departments, and one for the executive boards.
For the purpose of making decision on the top level, the executive board has to have detailed
insight reports for any board meeting. For this purpose, a higher level in the reporting module
has been introduced. This level has access to all schools combined, offering information from
a single students, and teacher to the entire school performance. This allows the executive
board to have accurate and up to date information, upon which they can make crucial
decisions.
The Cantonal Ministries of Education in B&H could benefit from this level of reporting.
Although each school is sending collective data about schools to the Offices of Statistics in
B&H, the information on the official Canton web sites are more than outdated. An example
can be given for the Canton of Tuzla, where the information about high schools is presented
from 01.12.2003, which is outdated for 9 years(Vlada TK, 2003). A similar case is with the
ZE-DO Canton, where on the 1st October 2010, a detailed document about the high schools
in canton has been presented on the official web site of canton from May 2006(ZE-DO
Canton, 2010). Smart School can allow the cantons to have these varieties of reports instantly
on any given date. Only with accurate and up to date reports can suitable decisions be made.
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3.2.3.Parents/Student Module
Smart School provides an in-depth feedback to parents and students. During the initial design
many aspects have been taken into consideration about the traditional way on how the parents
and students get the performance information from their schools.
Following these practices one of the initial requirements has been to provide first a quick and
easy access to information for the preparation of a parent meeting. Smart School here allows
the class teacher to collect instantly up to date data for a meeting. Also the class teacher can
schedule a meeting through the application and send instant SMS and emails to parents with
time and place of the meeting.
In order to provide constant access to parents about the performance of their child additional
methods have been introduced. One method involved a web application access for parents
over the internet, and the second one allows the parent to get information on mobile phone
via short messages.
4.Security in Smart School
Smart School uses the latest technologies in order to provide secure access to sensitive data.
The database contains privileged information about all students’ achievements as well as
personal information about the employees from the institutions who utilize Smart School.
To achieve a maximum level of security, all communication is exchanged through secure
channels over Secure Sockets LayerSSL. Each time a user accesses the web application, a
secure connection is established from the client browser to the server, meaning all
information passed from the client to the server is encrypted and cannot be seen anywhere in
between those two.
Continuing with our security layer, with the exchange of data through SSL all communication
from the client to the server is secured, but we still have one more possible point which can
be vulnerable, and through which unauthorized access can be gained. By design Smart
School as a web application can be accessed from any place in the world through any Internet
Service Provider ISP. This is primary allowed for the purpose that teachers and professors are
not limited with the location from where they can access data. Following this design it is
possible, with the use of a username and password to access the web application anytime
from anywhere. In case a malicious user gets the real user access details, the malicious user
could logon to the web application and perform some unauthorized actions in the application.
There are many possible scenarios on getting access details from an authorized user; one
includes the fact that many users use similar username and password with multiple services
on the internet, such as for email address, social platforms, bulletin boards, forums, chats,
online shopping cards and many other. If one of those services gets compromised, the
malicious user could try the same password for some other services, and then possibly get
access to our application.
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Another possible security scenario is that the client computer is infected with a Trojan virus,
or some other malicious application such as key logger, which would send access details to a
malicious user, where again a possible treat against the system could be used.
In order to prevent unauthorized access even when knowing the username and password,
Smart School implements an additional layer of security by introducing two-factor
authentication. Two-factor authentication requires the user to authenticate with more than just
a username and password. There are many variations of the multifactor authentication that
includes even more that two factors.
Smart School uses a two-factor authentication system. The first factor in the authentication is
the well-known username and private password by the user and the second factor is the
process of generating an additional verification code called One Time Password OTP, which
is generated by a security token. Upon each logging the security token will generate an OTP
which will be valid just for once. The security token is based on the Time-based One-time
Password Algorithm TOTP, where each token based on its internal serial number on the
given time generates a number(TOTP: Time-Based One-Time Password Algorithm). At the
time of the logging process the server performs the same algorithm and then compares the
entered OTP with the one generated on the server side. The server has a match table between
each token and user, so the server ‘knows’ on which serial to perform the algorithm. This
security layer prevents possible unauthorized access to the web application, even if the user
gets access to the username and password of the account. This method of authentication is
widely used by banks for online banking.OTP is becoming more popular among everyday
used web services. Google has introduced the so called 2-step verification process for
accessing any Google protected resource(Google, 2012). Similarly Amazon implemented
AWS multi-factor authentication when accessing the Amazon Web Service
infrastructure(AWS, 2012).
5.CONCLUSION
Although the majorities of components have been developed and are already in use, Smart
School still undergoes under changes and copes to adapt with the new functionalities. All
users of the system including the parents and students are constantly providing feedback
which guides to a more quality application. The main goal behind this project wasto offer a
unique application that will covers and satisfy all of the user’s requests, following the
educational legislations in B&H. This goal has been meet.
Currently the project is only implemented in Bosna Sema educational institutions, however
future plans includes offering this application to all primary and secondary schools in B&H.
The future expansion also includes the development of rising mobile applications for two
major smartphone mobile platforms used in B&H that consist of iOS and Android.
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UTIC. (n.d.). Education Management Information Sistem. Retrieved 01 29, 2012, from
http://www.emis.edu.ba/page/Opcenito-o-sistemu-EMIS.aspx
Vlada TK. (2003, 12 1). PODACI O UČENICIMA - SREDNJE ŠKOLE TK. Retrieved from
http://www.vladatk.kim.ba/Ministarstva/MONKS/nastavnici/UceniciSS.htm
ZE-DO Canton. (2010, 10 1). Informacija o nastavnicima i stručnim saradnicima u srednjim
školama.
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from
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175
The effects of akhism principles on today's business life:
A case in the western mediterranean region
Hilmi Uyar1,Hasan Erdoğan2
1Akdeniz University Social Sciences Institute Department of Econometrics Antalya
/TURKEY
2Akdeniz University Ayşe Sak school of Applied Sciences Antalya/TURKEY
E-mials: [email protected],[email protected]
Abstract
In historical process, Akhism guided to the commercial life of Turks. It is in close contact
with other institutions of the society. With its rules and principles Akhism seeks to establish
good relations between people and also organizations. With these perspectives, Akhism has
an quite stable place in history. The purpose of today's commercial applications of the
principles and implications of the study is to reveal Akhi. In this context, we did a literature
review firstly; followed we implied the survey upon small and medium-sized business
owners, than collected data and analyzed.
Keywords: Akhism principles, producer, seller, shopkeeper
1.INTRODUCTION
In the historical progress of nations, economic wealth plays an important role as well as
prosperity in social and cultural make-up. When the entire Turkish history is considered, we
come across with the institution of Akhism that is both related to the regulation of sociocultural life as well as to the operation of business life within the framework of certain
principles and rules. Even though Akhism has aspects in parallel with today’s management
philosophies, history has not been immutable and economical activities have changed since
the thirteenth-century establishment of Akhism.11
11 ÜLGER B. and ÜLGER G., “Akhism as a Non-Governmental Association Model in the History of the
Turkish Nation and an Assessment of Today’s Business Ethics A Relationship or a Contradiction”,
Journal of Human Values, 11,19-61 (2005).
176
Akhism is such a system with its own principles that developing art, trade and economy of
the people of during Ottoman and Seljuk. Ahi in Turkish to mean generous, big-hearted,
brave derived from the word “akı”. It is thought the word of Akı transformed to Ahi which is
meaning to “my brother” when the Turks rule over Anatolian.12
Akhism is a Turk tradesman founding exposed by historical and socioeconomic conditions
and based on religion and moral rules. The main purpose of Ahi organization institutionalized
over time was to organize the relationship between producer and consumer in best way and to
make honesty dominant over business life. Western historians base the origin of Akhism on
Futuvva organization that has developed between Arabs in the east. However, they accept
Akhism is far different from Futuvva organization and it is an institution unique to the
Anatolian Turks.13
Briefly, Akhism is a professional association which is quite common in Turk countries and
especially takes reference Islam religion. With its principles and institutional structure
Akhism managed trading life of Turks for a long time. The principles of total quality of
today’s business and community life became vision and applied rigorously by members of
the Akhism ages ago. The mission of Akhism was determined as “services to all” thus, they
aimed to protect all people and in this direction they worked and set required organizations.
Correct understanding of Akhism, applying of its vision, mission and organization structure
upon business life -especially- is very important for Turkey and world. However, the number
of investigation of the effects of Akhism over today’s business life is quite low. The purpose
of this study is to show the effects of Akhism applied commonly during Seljuk and Ottoman
period, over today’s business life. In this context, in the western Mediterranean region of
Turkey (Antalya, Burdur, Isparta), surveyed over small-scale tradesmen and the people
engaged in commerce and researched their sensation aimed at Akhism principles.
2.THE VISION OF AHI ORGANIZATON
To understand the vision of Akhism it is necessary to analyze thoroughly Futuvvatname
which is known as Ahi constitution. Futuvvatnames are the books describing principles of
Futuvva organizations and rules entrants must conform of this organization. They are
12 GÖLPINARLI A., "İslâm ve Türk İllerinde Fütüvvet Teşkilatı", İ.Ü. İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, C. 11,
İstanbul, 1950, s.6
13 www.sebilay.org.tr, (25.04.2012).
177
regulations that regulate matters that need attention to be organized of tradesman
organizations in cities. The book "Kitab'ul-Fütüvve" written by Ebu Abdi'r-Rahman
Muhammed İbn el-Hüseyn es-Sülemi is the first known Futuvvatname. 14
The principles in Futuvvatnames are concern of every moment and every aspect of daily life
of Ahi. That encompasses the whole of social life. The principles and doctrines which are
accepted unchangeable and indispensable constituting the fundamental values of Ahi vision
are listed in Futuvvatnames as follows: 15
Not to leave prayer (ritual of worship centered in prayer). Because prayer keeps away from
all forms of evil.
Having modesty. Modesty, increases people’s reputation in the community.
1. Not to be a slave of the soul. The slavery of the soul is the beginning of desire and
behavior in poor work.
2. Not to be a slave of life of the world. Exalting the dignity of man destroys the mortal
ones.
3. Having halal (legitimate) earnings. The thing which is halal is to eat something gained
by person’s hand and work. It is one of the most important and indispensable
principle of Akhism. This principle has led working life to a dynamic state.
4. Giving and bestowing upon needy people. It is one of the fundamental principles must
be based on the generosity and assistance of social and economic life. Provides
together with others to reach higher goals.
5. Enjoining goodness and keeping from evil. This principle provides eliminations of
errors and injustices that may occur through the internal audit of organization of Akhi.
At the beginning of the basic components of Akhi vision, “Excellence in Service” is found.
This is the most important building block of Akhi philosophy. No matter who or what the art
establishment should do the best and perfect of works. This is in a sense, the reason being
Akhism. In doing so, planning for the future is very important. Because Akhis are the people
who have partner social values and goals, owner of art and implying these objectives
together.16
14 GÖLPINARLI A., “İslam ve Türk İllerinde Fütüvvet Teşkilatı ve Kaynakları”, İ.Ü. İktisat Fakültesi
Mecmuası, C.II, İstanbul 1950.
15 Tuhfat-al- Vasayâ, s. 216–217.
16 İbn Batuta, s.8
178
A non employed Akhi is unthinkable. Every individual learn a profession according to the
ability to dexterity and skill, becomes the owner of business and contribute to social life.
Unprofessional ones does not help others. Happiness and the power of the society, only if can
be possible to make a contribution of every individuals as an owner of art to social life. 17
3.THE MISSION OF AHI ORGANIZATION
The basic mission of Akhism is to achieve perfect communities by training excellent
individuals, serve humanity and the people in way streamline the world.18 In Akhism
individual excellence comes first from everything. For this reason, primarily Ahi should get a
move on him. After this takes place, could bring order and service to the world. Then, it is
possible to define Akhi as follows: “good-natured, who continue to pray, giving alms, who
bestows and obedience to his father, hosts neighbor, who share properties in his hands, who
beautify his jobs, saying that is right, trying his deeds to make most beautiful, storing secrets,
who in compliance with love, behaves correctly, without a lie and hypocrisy, who gain halal
earnings, working like a bee, avoiding unlawful things, giving to anyone even if he is not
given, forgiving those who persecute, favors for malfeasant, that comply with Sharia law,
protecting the right of siblings, which is sympathetic to his neighbors, asking who away from,
visiting patients and inquire after their health.”19 The eyes of Akhi do not see unlawful
things; the mouth of Akhi does not speak sin words, the hands of Akhi do not persecute.20
Perfection of society depends on perfection of individuals. When the individuals become
perfect, then societies become perfect. The mission of Akhism refers to the excellence from
personal to general and from individual to the community. In this context, perfect individuals
create great communities. The missions of Akhism related with community in
Futuvvatnames, specified briefly the form of services to all.
The fundamentals of Akhi founding were so strong and its rules were so acceptable that these
rules were taken example for municipal services and for the control of these services;
formalized in such a form of law. Akhis bind the rule every stage of production from
supplying raw materials to sell. This eliminated many possible frictions between tradesmen.
17 http://www.ahilik.gen.tr/kavram/vizyon2.html, (25.04.2012).
18 Tuhfat-Al Vasayâ, s.209
19 Tuhfat s.209
20 Tuhfat s.209 ayrıca bkz. http://www.ahilik.gen.tr/kavram/misyon.html, (18.04.2012).
179
Anyone who did not conform to standards, produced low quality goods and services was
penalized in such ways. 21
4.RULES OF AKHISM ETHICS22




















Akhis must strive for not a few businesses or art, but a single business or art that is
appropriate their capabilities.
That must be a business or and art of Akhi protecting his honor appreciating his labor.
Ahi should be accurate, shall not deviate from path of labor to earn more than he
deserves.
Ahi must have knowledge, should love scholars, should not humiliate against of them
and should use his information in proper time and place.
Must be good-natured and good morals.
Must be accurate and reliable in his business and life.
Should know that the talking and must remain the promise.
Should not distinguish in service.
Should not wait response for his goodness.
Must be friendly and soft spoken.
Should not twit his errors.
Should pay attention to friendship; never forget a friend and brotherhood.
Should do favor to anyone even he were evil.
Should be modest.
Should work friendly, willingly and sincerity.
Should not betray someone else’s goods.
Should be generous.
Should judge for his anger.
Must keep secrets.
Must protect and regard his employees.
5.ADVICE OF AKHI23


Do not look, eat and drink unlawful things!
Be accurate, patient and resistant!
21 www.diyadinnet.com (18.04.2012).
22 Burgazi, Burgazi Fütüvvetnamesi.
23 Burgazi, Burgazi Fütüvvetnamesi.
180









Do not tell a lie!
Do not begin talking before than elders!
Do not trick anyone!
Be frugal!
Do not desire goods in the world greedily!
Do not measure incorrectly and do not weight defectively!
Forgive even if you were strong and high case!
Behave softly even if you were angry!
Be a generous even if you were needy!
6.REFLECTIONS OF AKHISM PRINCIPLES ON TODAY’S BUSINESS LIFE
In the study to determine the effects of Akhism on today’s artisans and craftsmen, 5 Likert
scale questionnaire designed on the basis of fundamental principles of Akhism and 29
questions were asked to participants. Questionnaire applied over randomly selected eighteen
years and over 450 owner of the business organization. The data collected from fieldwork
conducted in Turkey’s western Mediterranean analyzed using package programs SPSS 16.0
TM
and Stata . Because of reliability problems, 35 questionnaires were removed and continued
with 415 questionnaires to study.
7.DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION
According to the survey respondents' demographic information is shaped as follows:

Regional and sex distribution is as follows:
GAZİPAŞA
ALANYA
BURDUR
MANAVGAT
ANTALYA
CITY
CENTER
FİNİKE
ISPARTA
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
18–30
5
6
16
7
9
3
9
6
6
7
6
4
17
10
31–45
4
4
14
5
10
1
8
5
9
10
6
5
22
8
46–60
6
3
24
3
8
1
10
2
8
6
7
1
19
5
61-*
6
1
26
0
8
0
7
1
12
2
8
0
18
1
Age / Sex
181
TOTAL
35


95
40
48
60
37
100
Only in respect to the age distribution is as follows:
Male Female
Age / Sex
18–30
68
43
31–45
73
38
46–60
82
21
61-*
85
5
TOTAL
415
According to this distribution it is observed that for each age group the age distribution of
male distribute properly, but of female decreasing with increasing age.

The distribution of gender and education level as follows:
Education / Sex
Male Female
Male
Female
İllitarate
34
5
%8,1
%1,2
Primary Educaion
123
45
% 29,6
%10,8
High school
87
32
%20,9
%7,7
Üniversity
52
23
%12,5
%5,5
Master
12
2
%2,8
%0,4
According the data in the table male with primary education has the highest rate with 29.6%
182
It is seen that primary education level is much more than other levels. It is also seen that the
rate of university and master is quite low.
8.THE EFFECTS OF PRINCIPLES OF AKHISM ON TODAY’S BUSINESS LIFE
The SPSS output giving the average of responses to questions as follows:
propositions
Std.
Std. Error
N Mean Deviation Mean
In business life good temperament and good morals is important for me.
415 3,971 0,88691
0,04354
Promise is just like honor for me even it was not written. I respect my promises, not writings.
415 2,737 1,14459
0,05619
I do favors for everyone and aspect for their kindness.
415 3,947 0,81773
0,04014
I pay attention for justice, measure and weight.
415 3,947 0,89393
0,04388
I do my job sincerely, honesty and friendly.
415 3,952 0,84989
0,04172
I make proximity and hang on my neighbor’s shortages.
415 3,957 0,86144
0,04229
I call myself instead of someone else in looking for errors.
415 3,986 0,89539
0,04395
I am proud to be and have time with the poor fellow.
415 4,043 0,84445
0,04145
I do not respect to the rich ones due to richness of them.
415 3,889 0,91274
0,0448
I speak the truth and do not give up the truth
415 3,986 0,93498
0,0459
I protect my employees and their rights.
415 3,971 0,90577
0,04446
I perform god’s orders and prohibitions in the open and the secret.
415 3,971 0,88962
0,04367
I avoid the bad words and insults.
415 3,937 0,92779
0,04554
I do favor to anyone even he were evil.
415 3,961 0,85322
0,04188
I show patience against the evil and trouble.
415 3,995 0,92207
0,04526
I sincere in my belief and worship.
415 3,974 0,88562
0,04347
I don’t accredit the goods of mortal world.
415 4,031 0,88546
0,04347
I do not observe anything for my goodness and charity except of god’s sake.
415 3,843 0,90466
0,04441
183
I try to my consumers’ heart rather than to sell more expensive.
415 2,901
1,0934
0,05367
I’ll be friendly with people knowledgeable and ask for their though.
415 4,053 0,76271
0,03744
I only trust on god every time and every where.
415 4,089 0,82781
0,04064
Custom and usage are very important for me.
415 4,106 0,79146
0,03885
I content with less, give thanks god with much.
415 4,058 0,86897
0,04266
I make sacrifices for the sake of something.
415 4,161 0,77113
0,03785
I maintain the right and object to evil.
415 4,108 0,82257
0,04038
I firmly tied up to my religion.
415 3,925 0,88559
0,04347
I believe that anyone tied up to religion should be faithful in commerce.
415 3,978 0,92836
0,04557
I try my neighbor to win as least as I win.
415 3,111 1,07103
0,05257
(5: “strongly agree”, 4: “agree”, 3: “neither agrees nor disagrees” 2: “disagree” 1: “strongly disagree”)
Given the means the result of “strongly agree” was not observed. The mean of 18 questions is in the
shape of “neither agree nor disagree” and the mean of 8 questions is in the shape of “agree”.
Especially, three of the questions were answered very low rate. These questions are examined below.
If we look at these questions by adding gender factor, questions and averages of answers is as follows:
 Promise is just like honor for me even it was not written. I respect my promises, not writings.
Gender
Frequency
Mean
Male
313
2,7348
Female
102
2,7451
Both female and male answered this question as “disagree” with the average of 2.7.
 I try to my consumers’ heart rather than to sell more expensive.
184
Gender
Frequency
Mean
Male
313
2,9553
Female
102
2,7353
It can be seen that both sexes answered to this question as “disagree”.
 I try my neighbor to win as least as I win.
Gender
Frequency
Mean
Male
313
3,0575
Female
102
3,2745
Participants answered this question as “neither agree, nor disagree”.
Considering this three major principle, regardless of gender, it is seen that today’s business life is
staying far away from these principles.
If we analyze the variables according to the region, means are as follows:
REGION
185
Average
Result
Gazipaşa
3.76
Neither agree, nor disagree
Alanya
4.10
Agree
Manavgat
3.92
Antalya City Center
3.59
Finike
4.05
Agree
Isparta
3.91
Serik
3.54
Within the survey field of application only Alanya and Finike answered as “agree”, other
regions answered as “neither agree nor disagree”. Alanya has the highest level with the
average of 4.10; Antalya city center and Serik has the least level. Thus, Alanya is mostly
keeping the rules and morals of Akhi. From this point, the effects of Akhism can be
mentioned today, but it is obvious that Akhism impact is much weakened.
If we analyze the variables according to the education, means are as follows:
Education
average
İllitarate
3.95
Primary Educaion
3.77
High school
3.76
Üniversity
3.65
Master
3.59
As can be seen, whether averages are close to each other, there is an inverse ratio that is
averages decreasing towards education level increase.
If we analyze the variables according to the income level, means are as follows:
İncome level (TL)
186
average
500–1000
3.91
1000–2000
3.90
2000–3000
3.93
3000–5000
3.83
5000–7500
3.92
7500–10000
3.83
10000-*
3.87
When compared income level almost all levels has close averages. Thus, income level is
not a characteristic parameter.
If we analyze the variables according to the professional experience, means are as
follows:
Professional
experience (year)
average
1–5
3.55
6–10
3.65
11–20
3.88
20-*
3.89
As professional experience increases, the rate of acceptance of the principles of Akhism
increases.
If we analyze the variables according to the age, means are as follows:
age
average
18–30
3.67
31–45
3.71
46–60
3.89
60-*
4.17
As it seen, the age variable is quite decisive on the principles and ethics of Akhism.
Acceptance rate of principles of Akhi increased with increasing age. In other words, the
younger generation less adopted the concept of Akhi.
187
9.GENERAL EVALUATION AND CONCLUSION
Although the moral and principles of Akhism largely lost its impact, maintained its existence
in today’s artisans and craftsmen. The rate of acceptance increases with age and professional
experience increase (directly proportional); decreases with education level increase (inverse
proportional). In addition, adopting the principles of Akhism rates also vary regionally. It is
remarkable that Akhism is more adopted in such regions far from metropolis as Alanya,
Finike, Manavgat and Isparta.
Correct understanding of principles and morals of Akhism is very important in terms of
tradesmen and artisans, and even country’s economy. Who do not know the history could
hardly speculate future effectively. However, the Akhi institution and its brought poorly
understood by young generations especially. Knowledge of past practices which enlightened
business world for centuries and accepted as model for business and personal relationships
will help both produce excellent products and exclusion of trust and honesty in consumer
relations. With this awareness, it is borne in mind that there are very important duties, to all
sections of society and primarily to educators.
REFERENCES
Abdülkadir GÖLPINARLI, "İslâm ve Türk İllerinde Fütüvvet Teşkilatı", İ.Ü. İktisat
Fakültesi Mecmuası, C. 11, İstanbul, 1950.
Abdülkadir GÖLPINARLI, “İslam ve Türk İllerinde Fütüvvet Teşkilatı ve Kaynakları”, İ.Ü.
İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, C.II, İstanbul 1950.
Billur ÜLGER and Gürdal ÜLGER, “Akhism as a Non-Governmental Association Model in
the History of the Turkish Nation and an Assessment of Today’s Business Ethics A
Relationship or a Contradiction”, Journal of Human Values, 11,19-61 (2005).
http://www.ahilik.gen.tr/kavram/vizyon2.html, (25.04.2012).
Burgazi, Burgazi Fütüvvetnamesi.
www.diyadinnet.com (18.04.2012).
188
İbn Batuta Seyahatnamesi Seçmeler, Çev. İsmet Parmaksızoğlu, MEB Yay, İstanbul, 1993.
www.sebilay.org.tr, (25.04.2012).
Tuhfat-Al-Vasayâ.
Analysis of Factors Affecting the Life Satisfaction of Household Heads Living in Urban
Areas: A Case of West Mediterranean Region
Ali Riza Aktas1, Burhan Ozkan2, Onur Oku1
1Akdeniz University, Alanya Faculty of Business, Economics and Finance Dept.
2Akdeniz University, Faculty of Agriculture, Agriculture Economics Dept.
E-mails: [email protected],[email protected],[email protected]
Abstract
Since the early ages of history, individuals have sought life satisfaction and considered it as a
life goal. Because of this fact, the term life satisfaction has kept its importance in time and
has been the focus of many studies. Life satisfaction is seen as a positive value gained by an
individual’s own evaluation of the quality of life as a whole, therefore may be described as
subjective. Nevertheless, studies made about life satisfaction use both subjective and
objective indicators. Life satisfaction is partially conceptualized as the result of satisfaction
related to various life fields such as work, family, health, etc. and it is assumed that the
effects of environmental conditions highly help satisfaction related with life fields. When
studies about life satisfaction are taken into consideration, it is notable that the term job
satisfaction is generally emphasized. However, studies show that job satisfaction can explain
only a few of the changes in life satisfaction. In this study, it is aimed to determine the socioeconomic factors affecting the life satisfaction of household heads by using data from
questionnaires and Logit model. “Unclustered Single-Stage Simple Random Probability
Sampling Method” was used to apply the questionnaires to 490 household heads living in city
centers of Antalya, Isparta and Burdur. In order to determine the probability of whether the
household heads were satisfied with their lives or not, explanatory variables oriented to the
current perceptions of household heads were included to the model in the study in addition to
the demographic variables. Demographic variables were included to the model as the dummy
189
variable. Logit model was estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. According
to the results of the analysis, life satisfaction of the household heads decreased with the
increase of the size of the city. Similarly, increase in education level also decreased the
probability of life satisfaction of the household heads. In addition, household heads with high
income levels were happier than the ones with lower income. Similarly, if the spouse of the
household head is either healthy, satisfied from job, or is a house wife, satisfied from
marriage, then life satisfaction is determined to be higher than the household heads without
the aforementioned spouse characteristics.
Keywords: Satisfaction, Life Satisfaction, Household Head, Logit Model, West
Mediterranean Region.
1. INTRODUCTION
Life satisfaction, in its general sense, refers to the satisfaction felt by one with regard to
his/her own life (Keser, 2005). In other words, it relates to which extent the person is pleased
with the life he/she has (Guler and Emec, 2006). Life satisfaction is the emotional response of
the person against the life defined as work, leisure and other non-work time and expresses a
general attitude towards life (Dikmen, 1995; Keser, 2005).
Life satisfaction is defined as “the positive perception of one’s own life according to the
criteria determined by himself/herself” and as the conscious and cognitive perceptions of the
person with respect to the quality of his/her own life (Gilman and Huebner, 2000).
Life satisfaction is also described as the positive value obtained when the individual evaluates
the quality of his/her life as a whole (Ozdevecioğlu and Aktas, 2007). Therefore, it is possible
to say that life satisfaction is subjective in essence as it is the product of the evaluation
conducted by the individual with regard to his/her own life. However, both subjective and
objective indicators are employed in the studies relating to life satisfaction (Cetin et al.,
2003). Objective indicators are related to external conditions such as income level,
accommodation conditions and quality of such conditions, crime rates and accessibility of
health services. Subjective indicators include personal emotions of the individual with regard
to his/her life conditions (Gilman and Huebner, 2000).
Life satisfaction is partially conceptualized as a result of the satisfaction in various spheres of
life such as work, family and health and it is assumed that the impacts of environmental
conditions on the life satisfaction substantially contribute to the satisfaction concerning the
spheres of life (Rode, 2004).
Life satisfaction demonstrates the result obtained from the comparison of the expectations of
the individual and the actual situation and generally includes the entire life of the individual
as well as the various dimensions of that life; that is, it expresses the satisfaction generally
felt for the individual’s whole life rather than a certain situation (Sener, 2009). In the studies
190
concerning life satisfaction, it is remarkable that job satisfaction is generally emphasized
regarding life satisfaction. Considering the fact that individuals in today’s world spend most
of their time in the workplace, it may seem reasonable to accept the assumption that the life
satisfaction of the individual is substantially affected by job satisfaction. Nevertheless,
studies reveal that job satisfaction may explain approximately 5%-10% of the shifts in life
satisfaction (Uyguc et al., 1998).
While there are different views on the relation between life satisfaction and job satisfaction
and on the direction of such relation, it is notable that no conclusive results could be obtained
regarding whether the relation between the two variables is positive or negative or whether
there exists a relation between them although many studies were conducted on life
satisfaction-job satisfaction. (Uyguc et al., 1998).
Considering the definitions regarding life satisfaction, it is possible to say that there exist
many factors apart from job satisfaction that determine and affect the life satisfaction of
individuals. It was found that life satisfaction is associated with factors such as possessing a
meaningful life, enjoying life and having plenty of pursuits in life (Guler and Emec,
2006:131). On the other hand, factors including social connections, sexual activity, success,
physical activity, interest in nature, reading or listening to music, nutrition or drink
consumption make positive affective contributions to life satisfaction (Dockery, 2003). Some
studies in the literature put forth that age, stress, physical health, life style and personality
structure are among the basic determinants of life satisfaction (Chow, 2005). A consensus
does not exist in the literature regarding the influence of income level on life satisfaction.
Some studies emphasize the importance of the quality of social relations and relative
insignificance of income on satisfaction. On the other hand, however, some other studies
conclude that the income effect is significant for the level of life satisfaction (Dockery, 2003).
This research studies the satisfaction level of household heads. City centres of Antalya,
Isparta and Burdur were chosen as the research field and it was aimed to determine the socioeconomic factors that affect the satisfaction levels of household heads with the help of Logit
model using the data obtained from questionnaire surveys conducted with household heads.
2. MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY
Main material of this study is the cross-sectional data obtained through questionnaire survey
method from household heads living in the West Mediterranean Region urban area (AntalyaIsparta-Burdur). Furthermore, national and international studies, publications, statistics and
reports prepared by various institutions and organizations concerning the research subject
constitute other materials of this study.
As to the determination of sample size, the study employed the “Unclustered Single-Stage
Simple Random Sampling Method”, which is the most preferred method in consumption
studies. Questionnaire surveys were conducted to 490 household heads. Ratios of households
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of each province to the total number of households were taken into account in the distribution
of the calculated sample size to the provinces.
In this study, social and economic factors affecting the life satisfaction of household heads
living in the urban centres of Antalya, Isparta and Burdur were analyzed using the Logit
model. Dependent variable in the Logit model is discrete and the estimated probability values
vary between 0 and 1. Another method that may be employed for this study is the Probit
model. The basic discrepancy between the Logit and Probit models stems from the difference
in assumptions regarding the probability distributions of the models. Though, no significant
difference exists between the results obtained through these models (Green, 2002). On the
other hand, the use of Logit model was preferred in this study as it is accepted that
independent variables explain dependent variable better in the Logit model (Amemiya, 1983).
The Logit model that is based on cumulative logistic probability function is expressed as
follows (Gujarati, 2001):
Pi  E (Y  1|X i )     X i
Pi  E (Yi  1|X i ) 
1
1  e  (   X i )
1

1  e  Zi
[1]
In the equation,
Z i    X i
where;
 : constant,
 : parameters to be estimated for each explanatory variable,
 i : ith independent variable.
P
Equation [1] is named as the logistic distribution function and i denotes the probability of
occurrence of the relevant incident. It becomes either zero or one as the result of the binary
selection in the form of Yes/No. Z denotes the explanatory variables vector included in the
model, whereas  and  denote the model parameters to be estimated.
When the equation above is rearranged and natural logarithm of both sides of the equation is
taken, the following equation is derived:
192
 P 
Li  Ln i   Z i 
  1 X1  2 X 2  .........  n X n  
 1  Pi 
[2]
Z 
Dependent variable in this regression model i expresses the natural logarithmic value of
the ratio of choosing a certain option to choosing none. In other words, coefficients obtained
from the Logit model expresses the probability of preferring an incident to not preferring it.
“  ” was added to the equation as the error term of the model.
As the dependent variable in this study, household heads who are satisfied with their lives as
a whole are accepted as 1 and household heads that are included in other options than being
satisfied are accepted as 0. In the determination of probabilities of household heads to be and
not to be satisfied with their lives, demographic variables as well as explanatory variables
regarding the current perception of household heads were included in the model.
Demographic variables were included in the model as dummy variables. “I” variable
represents the income group the household head belongs to, whereas “PR” and “EL”
variables represent the province and educational level of the household head. Moreover,
“HWS” variable represent the satisfaction felt by the household head for the housewife status
of his spouse and “JS” variable represents the general job satisfaction level of the household
head. Similarly, “HS” variable represents the satisfaction of the household head for his health
status while “MS” variable represents the satisfaction level of the household head for his
marriage.
Factors affecting the life satisfaction of household heads living in urban areas are analyzed
employing the Logit model. Here, the model in equation 2 is reexpressed according to the
said explanatory variables.
YM i    1IL1   2 IL2   3 ED1   4 ED2   5G1   6G 2   7 EM 
8 SM  9 IM  10 EVM  ei
[3]
Codes regarding dependent and independent variables used in the Logit analysis are provided
in Table 1. Logit model was estimated in Eviews 5.0 software employing the Maximum
Likelihood Method. One of the most significant advantages of using this method is that the
estimated parameters are consistent and efficient (Pindyck and Rubinfeld, 1991).
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Table 1. Variables Used in the Logit Model and Their Definitions
Dependent Variable
LSi
1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his life, otherwise=0
Independent Variables
PR1
1 if the household head resides in the urban centre of Burdur, otherwise=0
PR2
1 if the household head resides in the urban centre of Isparta, otherwise=0
PR3
1 if the household head resides in the urban centre of Antalya, otherwise=0
(reference class)
EL1
1 if the household head has an education level of primary education or lower,
otherwise=0
EL 2
1 if the household head has an education level of high school or equivalent,
otherwise=0
EL3
1 if the household head has an education level of college or higher, otherwise=0
(reference class)
I1
1 if the household head has a total income lower than TL1250, otherwise=0
I2
1 if the household head has a total income between TL1250 and TL2500,
otherwise=0
I3
1 if the household head has a total income higher than TL2500, otherwise=0
(reference class)
HWS 1 if the spouse is housewife, otherwise=0
HS
1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his health status, otherwise=0
JS
1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his job, otherwise=0
MS
1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his marriage, otherwise=0
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3. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Descriptive statistics regarding the data compiled from 490 household heads used in the
analyses are provided. It demonstrates that 16% of household heads reside in Burdur, 18% in
Isparta and 66% in Antalya. 39% of the household heads who participated in the research
were found to have an educational level of college or higher, whereas 38% have an
educational level of high school or equivalent and 23% have an educational level lower than
high school or equivalent. 21% of household heads are included in the lowest income group
and 53% are included in the highest income group. While the spouses of 47% of the
household heads in the research region are housewives, those who stated that their spouses
were not housewife were 53%.
A great majority (72%) of the household heads stated that they were generally satisfied with
their lives, whereas those who stated that they were dissatisfied were found to be 28%.
Furthermore, 58% of the household heads in the research region stated that they were
generally satisfied with their health status and 42% stated that they were generally
dissatisfied with their current jobs. A great majority of the household heads who participated
in the research stated that they were satisfied with their marriage (78%), whereas those who
stated their dissatisfaction with their marriage were found to be 22%.
4. MODEL ESTIMATION RESULTS
The estimated model has 78% accurate estimation of the opinions of household heads living
in urban areas. Additionally, the Nagelkerke R Square value, which indicates the explanatory
power of the model, was found to be 0.52. The Logit model generally defined in Equation [3]
was estimated employing the variables summarized in Table 1 and the estimation results and
whether the parameters are statistically significant are presented in Table 2.
Table 2: Model Estimation Results
Variables
Coefficients
Z-Value
Level of Significance
C
-0.192
-0.518
0.6042
PR1
-0.733
-2.125
0.0336
PR2
-0.541
-1.659
0.993
EL1
-0.465
-1.350
0.1769
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EL2
-0.617
-2.032
0.0421
I1
-0.938
-2.369
0.0178
I2
-0.552
-1.650
0.0989
HWS
0.482
1.685
0.0920
HS
1.031
4.025
0.0001
JS
0.804
2.818
0.0048
MS
2.319
7.917
0.0000
Nagelkerke R-Square
0.52
Model Accurate Estimation Ratio
0.73
According to the analysis results, all variables included in the model have the anticipated
signs. In addition, all of the variables excluding EL1 and ISP were found to be statistically
significant at 10% level of significance.
According to the model estimation results, the household heads living in a larger city were
found to be happier than those living in a relatively smaller city, in other words, it was found
that the household heads living in Antalya are more likely to be satisfied with their lives than
those living in Isparta and Burdur.
According to research results, it is notable that the levels of life satisfaction of household
heads decrease as their educational levels increase. The parameter related to the ED1
variable, which includes the household heads possessing the lowest educational level, was
calculated as -0.46, which suggests that the household heads with low educational levels are
more satisfied with their lives compared to household heads with higher educational levels.
However, ED1 variable is not statistically significant.
Another variable included in the model is income variable. Similarly, parameters regarding
income variables were found to be negative and statistically significant. It was found that the
household heads with higher levels of income were more satisfied with their lives compared
to those with lower levels of income, in other words, there exists a linear relationship
between the income level and life satisfaction of household heads.
Parameters regarding housewife (HWS), job satisfaction (JS), health satisfaction (HS) and
marriage satisfaction (MS) were found to be positive and statistically significant. In other
words, it was found that those who were generally more satisfied with the housewife status of
their wives, current job, health status and marriage were more satisfied with their lives.
196
5. CONCLUSION
This study analyzes the life satisfaction levels of household heads through the use of
questionnaire survey data compiled from household heads living in urban areas. To that end,
Logit model is estimated. It was found that life satisfaction decreases as the city in which the
household head lives gets larger and similarly, the probability of household heads to be
satisfied with their lives decreases as the level of education increases. Moreover, it was found
that the household heads with higher levels of income were more satisfied with their lives
than those with lower levels of income. Similarly, it was found that the household heads with
housewife spouses, health status satisfaction, job satisfaction and marriage satisfaction were
likely to be more satisfied with their lives compared to those who do not have such specific
satisfactions.
REFERENCES
Amemiya, T., 1983. Advanced Econometrics. Cambridge, MA Harvard University.
Chow, H.P.H., 2005. Life Satisfaction Among Universıty Students in a Canadian Prairie City:
a Multivariate Analysis, Social Indicators Research, 70, ss. 139- 150.
Cetin, M., Ebrinç, S., Başoğlu, C., Semiz, Ü.B., Çobanoğlu, N., Can, S. & Karaduman, F.
2003. Acemi Erlerin Yaşam Koşullarından Memnuniyetini Belirleyen Faktörlerin
İncelenmesi, Türk Psikiyatri Dergisi, 14(2), ss. 125-133.
Dikmen, A.A., 1995. İş Doyumu ve Yaşam Doyumu İlişkisi. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF
Dergisi, Cilt:50, No:3-4, Haziran-Aralık.
Dockery, A.M., 2003. Happiness, Life Satisfaction and the Role of Work: Evidence From
two Australian Surveys. Paper Presentend to the 5 th Part to Full Employment Conference on
Unemployment, University of Newcastle, 10-12 December.
Gilman, R. & Huebner, E. S. 2000. Review of Life Satisfaction Measures for Adolescents,
Behaviour Change, Vol. 17, No. 3, ss.178-183.
Greene, W., 2002. Econometric Analysis, Macmillan,New York.
Gujarati, D., 2001. Temel Ekonometri, Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul
Guler K.B. ve Emeç, H. 2006. Yaşam Memnuniyeti Ve Akademik Başarıda İyimserlik Etkisi.
D.E.Ü.İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt:21 Sayı:2, ss:129-149.
Keser, A., 2005. İş Doyumu ve Yaşam Doyumu İlişkisi: Otomotiv Sektöründe Bir Uygulama.
Çalışma ve Toplum, 4, ss.77-96.
197
Özdevecioğlu, M. ve Aktas, A., 2007. Kariyer Bağlılığı, Mesleki Bağlılık ve Örgütsel
Bağlılığın Yaşam Tatmini Üzerindeki Etkisi: İş-Aile Çatışmasının Rolü. Erciyes Üniversitesi
İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı: 28, Ocak-Haziran, ss.1-20.
Pindyck, R. S., ve Rubınfeld, D., 1991. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. Mc
Graw-Hill, Inc, New York.
Rode, J., 2004. Job Satisfaction and Life Satisfaction Revisited: A Longitudinal Test of an
Integrated Model. Human Relations, Volume 57(9), ss. 1205-1230.
ICT Infrastructure for Sustainable Society:
A Story of BH Telecom
Dzihad Zlatar,Meliha Handzic
International Burch University, Sarajevo,
71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
E-mails:[email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
World-class ICT infrastructure is the key to rapid economic and social development ofa
country. Past studies show that the growth of ICT, particularly telecommunicationservices
has a direct link with the economic growth of the country. However,the access to ICT
infrastructure, services and applications and thus the level ofdevelopment varies among the
countries. The focus of this study is on the currentsituation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).
The main objective of the study is toexplore the penetration of telecommunication in B&H
and the role of BH Telecom inthis process.
Keywords:ICT, infrastructure, sustainable society, case study
1. INTRODUCTION
The war that has ravaged Bosnia (1992-1995) did not just take its toll in casualties and
material damage but has left the communications infrastructure crippled as well. While the
other countries in the region introduced beginnings of information technologies, Bosnia had
just started an arduous task of rebuilding its communications network. That task fell to the
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shoulders of the state held PTT Company (Post, Telephone, Telegraph) more accurately to its
offspring company - BH Telecom.
It is not against logic that ICT development and spread infrastructure has a beneficial effect
of economic and social development. If we just take the basic economic principles of
effectiveness and efficiency we can assume that a functional ICT can help reduce costs and
redundancy and point out faults and bottlenecks which the system needs to address.
To understand what kind of impact the ICT provided by BH Telecom had we would have to
have an extensive study of IT environments conducted in the private sector so that we can
have a comparable ratio of increase in development compared to services provided. Sadly
that kind of study has never been done which makes this hard to compare and contrast this
relation in retrospect. However, previous projects, studies and activities had been conducted
to promote usage of ICT technologies in the government, educational and private sectors.
These activities were funded both by foreign agencies as well as local decrees and can
provide the necessary comparison data for the case.
2. BH TELECOM
2.1.History
The firsts steps of the renewal and reconstruction of the new information and
telecommunication system were taken by the mother company already in the war period.
After the breakthrough of the telephony barrier in September 1993, the management board in
the former Public Enterprise PTT B&H devised the interest in new technologies in the field
of communications,and in doing so prepared the company for the inevitable market race in
the aftermath of the war. Its courage and visionary orientation was proven in 1996 by
investing significant financial assets into the GSM technology enabling the population a
access to the world by new digital PSTN access points as well as mobile telephony and
Internet. At the beginning of 2001 the company Public Enterprise PTT B&H was divided and
into BH Postal Services and its offspring BH Telecom.
2.2 Services
BH Telecom had a long standing streak as the biggest provider of the telecommunication
services in Bosnia – Herzegovina in the field of PSTN, mobile and data network.
In the area of the mobile telephony it introduced the GPRS/ WAP, MMS and SMS info and
fun services on the VAS platform as well as EDGE technologies. At the end of 2006 BH
Telecom had over 1.000.000 users with market participation of over 50% and annual increase
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of the number of users for approximately 150.000 accompanied by continuous improvement
and work on coverage of the territory and signal quality in the entire B&H.
In the field of PSTN numerous activities were conducted on application of the broadband
network on the basis of the ADSL technology ensuring that BH Telecom has a very reliable
and safe network accompanied by digitalization of total installed capacities of over 95%.
In order to even more improve its predispositions and promote the economc sector BH
Telecom implemented new technologies in the domain also, such as IVR, SMS and VMS.
In recent years BH Telecom continually increased its broadbands speeds, removed the long
standing limit on downloadable traffic, introduced VoIP, IPTV with video on demand and
PayPerView options and continues to spread its network by reaching remote users via
wireless technology.
2.3.Government support and internal operations
The business model of BHT allowed for special contracts to be offered to private,
government and educational sectors. While the private sector offers were most concerned
with stability and security, educational sectors are cost conscious options for users who
require wide range of users with no specific requirements. The government sector is a cross
between the two incorporating both a large scale of smaller, constant transactions with big
emphasis on security and reliability.
Being a state held company as well (the government is a majority share-holder) BHT had
regarding its own problems regarding its internal organization and operation redundancy. All
available technologies (landline, internet, GSM service) started further improving in their
own direction with no coherent relationship between the users. Therefore it was normal for
one user to regular receive 3 or more bills monthly all coming from the same company all
due to be paid in different times. In 2009 in cooperation with local software companies a new
information system has been devised to unify the subscriber tree and provide a single
platform from where all customer operations can be conducted. By doing so instead of
juggling between several different applications and multiple entries on different databases
everything can be done from one place with added monitoring and customer history. This not
only allowed faster and more reliable service but also helped decrease the costs to the
company. Regarding the topic of the paper this could be a proving case for itself but for the
purpose of exploring the impact on society we will focus on government institutions as a
measure of improvement to society.
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3.EFFECTS OF ICT DEVELOPMENT IN B&H
The development of informational society in BIH was abruptly stopped by the fall of
Yugoslavia and the following war. The drawback in development was even more dramatic
because it happened it the time of explosive global expansion of ICT development and
practical usage. It is important to note that in 2002 it was estimated that there were over
300.000 PC in households, over 5000 web sites and 100.000 internet users. However most of
thesestatistics is centered on urban population and the “digital divide” between urban and
rural population is one of the greatest obstacles in enabling ICT infrastructure.
3.1. Government
According to the results of the study conducted by UNDP in cooperation with the Council of
Ministers n 2009 government institutions have made significant progress towards
incorporating and overall acceptance of ICT in their work. The results showed that 95.74% of
government employees use computers in their daily work. This study does not allow us to see
the quality of hardware nor the sophistication of usage but does show the results of
penetration of ICT in administrative usage.
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Another important statistic that has improved over recent year is the presence of local area
networks within government institutions. This is an essential prerequisite for electronic
information exchange in the daily work of government employees.
Finally, the study examined the quality of the internet connection provided to the institutions
which showed a dramatic increase in percentage of broadband connections as opposed to
previously dominant Dial-up and ISDN connectivity.
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The survey, done in 2009 would probably encounter even more dramatic results since, in the
case of BH Telecom the overall shift to broadband connectivity will result to entirely
terminating its offering of Dial-up and ISDN service due to the lack of subscribers (and the
need of) by the end of the current year.
The largest improvements in the government sector had been seen in its judiciary system both
in terms of the infrastructure and project development. The judiciary system had made the
biggest leap to automatization of its services and support and as the process matures the
citizens will see the increasing benefits of ICT enabled administration.
Some of the project conducted in the process of improving the judicial system is
LAND ADMINISTRATION PROJECT (GTZ) - project on the
Implementation of laws related to land registers in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
LEGISLATION DATABASE PROJECT (UNDP and EU) - This webpage allows users to
search, browse and access all laws in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
JUSTICE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (USAID) - The JSDP was designed to
strengthen capacities within the justice sector in order to maintain and strengthen the rule of
law. The primary goal is the provision of institutional support in order to strengthen the
independence of the justice sector
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3.2. Education
One of the main indicators of ICT usage within educational institutions is the ratio of
pupils/studentsper computer. In comparison with the collected data from the 2005 eReadiness Report we can observe an increase in pupils/students per computer ratio:
Though the increase is promising (especially considering the data dates to 2005) it is far away
from adequate. Another problem is that the rate of acquisition of ICT technologies varies
amongst different educational institution. While some have embraced information
technologies and help/improvement that it brings other reluctantly implement new methods
due to either financial reasons or unwillingness to learn new technologies.
3.3. Private sector
The reliability on ICT technologies is present in all branches of economy but the impact on
society is best measured observing the development of IT market itself. According to the
International Data Corporation (IDC) the IT market in Bosnia and Herzegovina stagnated at
$167 million in 2010. When measured in local currency, the market expanded 5.0% from the
previous year. According to a recent report from market research company IDC, per capita IT
spending in Bosnia and Herzegovina reached $36 in 2010, or 4.3% of the EU average.
Between 2011 and 2015, IDC expects the Bosnia and Herzegovina IT market to expand at a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% to reach $291.49 million in 2015.Like in
many developing counries benefits from ICT technologies in Bosnia are predominantly that
of it’s mobile operators and service providers. Survey done in 2003 conducted by UNDP
showed that 8,6 % of countries GDP is shared between ICT service providers. To effectively
204
use the resources provided this trend has to be reversed: The service providers must be
second to the market which benefits from the service and creates value.
Although in recent years the IT market has significantly expanded, most of the companies
are foreign subsidiaries who use the local work force for “cheap labor” because of the
difference of standards in the regional industies. The same standards apply for platforms,
standards and equipment needed therefore it is hard to be competitive in foreign markets.
This can be attributed as the largest reason for stagnation in the industry because even if ICT
technology is present and suffice the needs of IT developement the lack of financial
investment and high prices due to economies of scale hinder their development.
3.4 Role of BH Telecom in ICT industry
In terms of the three sustainable society branches spoken of BH Telecom was involved in all
aspects. In the goverment sector as the state owned operator it provided majority of the
infrastructure (at least in the Federation entity). Most if not all goverment institutions are
connected with broadband internet and connected via local area networks. In the educational
sector there is a wide gap left by the discontinuation of the academic research newtork which
has never been filled. BHT has on numerous occasions collaborated with educational
institutions and promoted programs in the educational sector but the task of establishing an
unified network falls upon the legislation of the goverment. If and when the goverment
decides that the need for such a network cannot be ignored BHT has the resources to create it.
Concerning the private sector BHT is a long time partner with two of the worlds leading
plaform solutions – Oracle and Microsoft and in that way enabled all its customer to use and
develop their own solutions based on that platform. Regarding other branches of the industry
BHT offered specialized business packages suited for the needs of companies either operating
on the internet or using its benefits. This feature did expirience a decline due to the
appearance of smaller ISPs which are focused on delivering more customized and suitable
offerings but some of which still use BHT infrastructure.In this sector services of BHT
provided operational requirement for e-banking, virtual private networks or even such
services as Mparking.It is also important to note the distribution of IPTV, although BHt is not
the fist operator to offer the service, the service it does offer is not just centered in the urban
areas but all over the country enabling suburban and rural areas the quality of IPTV service
which can compare to world standars.
4.CONCLUSION
The facts presented in this paper that there is indeed an increase in development of ICT in all
aspects of the society, although it is less than desirable. It would be unfair and incorrect to
attribute all of it to the services provided by BH Telecom but it cannot be denied that BH
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Telecom was in all recent years and still is the largest provider of ICT services all across the
country. Furthermore where other ISP providers are mostly profit oriented the role of BHT as
the state operator is to provide service everywhere regardless of the profits involved.
Development of ICT undeniably affects the society as a whole in a beneficial manner but
B&H has reached a point where future development is not hampered by the lack of its
infrastructure but rather a lack of financial investment in further improvements. Though the
lack of resources is high compared to world standards or even countries in the region it is the
usage of these resources that creates the demand. Until our society does not promote and
invest in incorporating ICT in our daily routine the stagnation is inevitable and furthers the
gap between B&H and the countries of the developing world. If that demand does happen and
is adequately supported by the ruling structures, BH Telecom has the necessary resources and
skill to answer that call.
“For a country to put ICT to effective use it must be ‘e-Ready’ in terms of infrastructure, the
accessibilityof ICT to the population at large and the effect of the legal and regulatory
framework on ICT use”.
Source: bridges.org, http://www.bridges.org/e_readiness_assessment
REFERENCES
Last accessed on 4 29, 2012, from United Nations Development program E-Readiness report
2009 : http://www.undp.ba/upload/News/e-Readiness%202009.pdf
Last accessed on 4 26, 2012, from BH Telecom Web Portal, History of BH Telecom :
http://www.bhtelecom.ba/1210.html
Last accessed on 4 26, 2012, from United Nations Development program, Strategy for IS
Development
in
BH,
IS
and
sustainable
development
:
http://www.undp.ba/upload/publications/Strategy%20for%20IS%20Development%20in%20
BH.pdf
Last accessed on 4 28, 2012, from LAND ADMINISTRATION PROJECT (GTZ),
http://www.zkk.ba
Last accessed on 4 28, 2012, from LEGISLATION DATABASE PROJECT (UNDP and
EU), http://www.legislativa.ba/
Last accessed on 4 28, 2012, from JUSTICE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PROJECT
(USAID), http://www.usaidjsdp.ba
Last accessed on 4 27, 2012, from Internation Data Corporation (IDC), IT Market in Bosnia
and Herzegovina http://www.idc-cema.com/?showproduct=41456
Last accessed on 4 27, 2012, from bridges.org
http://www.bridges.org/e_readiness_assessment
206
E-Readiness
assessment,
Sustainability & Education - E-Learning Website
Aida Bulbul, Mela Hadrović, Emil Knezović, Adi Fišević
International Burch University, Faculty of Economics
71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
[email protected]
Abstract
Taking into consideration that sustainability has become one of the crucial aspects of modern
development due to scarcity of resources and intense globalization processes; we recognized
a need to integrate it into education by development of an e-learning website. Throughout
analysis we explained the rational need for education on sustainability since it has a great
influence on every aspect of life. Prior, learning goals were introduced as guideline for
further explanations. In the next part of the analysis we have defined potential solution based
on Bersin’s six modes of learning which include: reading, seeing, hearing, watching, doing
and teaching. For the benefit of development of our online course it was necessary to clearly
set out and explain core tools divided into three groups: informational group, materials group
and examination group. Finally, this paper offers a ready-to-implement solution on e-learning
sustainability website applicable to any university.
Keywords: E-learning, Sustainability, Discussion, Interactivity, Internet, Planning Tools,
Software, Website, Organization, University.
1. INTRODUCTION
Today, in the era of technology, internet, and change, e-learning has become a constituent
part of university curriculums, a common tool for corporate training, and strategic change. On
the other side, sustainable development an issue and challenge of today has an overall aim of
meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their needs. Taking into consideration main characteristics of e-learning which can be
207
described as teaching service provided to an individual that is not physically present brings us
to the point where we combine these two issues into one.
In order to understand the issue it is important to primarily explain and define e-learning and
sustainable development as two important segments for development of e-learning website.
Modern era imposed new standards related to usage of internet and high-tech gadgets where
most of students need to adopt in order to engage more efficient processes of learning
practices.
Furthermore it is vital to determine how these two issues can be combined and brought into
everyday life throughout education. To motivate and engage students in active learning
processes calls for the use of student-centered concepts and the making of more interactive
virtual learning environments that supports knowledge creation (Uhomoibhi, 2006).
For the benefit of overall analysis we will present unique and simple solution (applicable to
any university) of an e-learning sustainability course that has aim to introduce students to
sustainability issues of today, give them opportunity to research, discuss and contribute to
their solving, and to make them capable of applying this solutions to their organizations in the
future.
According to the general definition sustainable development can be explained as “the ability
to make development sustainable and to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED, 1987).
Taking into consideration scarcity of resources, intensity of development and global
economic position, sustainability has become one of the crucial factors for further successful
development of all planetary activities.
It is possible to segregate three major aims of sustainable development and e-learning
practices. First aim capitalizes on strength, prior academic, cultural and personal experiences
and modes of an increasingly diverse students group. Second one facilitates effective
engagement among sustainability practitioners with students in real and virtual earning
environments. Third aim is focused on informed groups and individuals which allows them
reflection on the strengths and limitations of sustainability and education (McEwen, 2006).
After presenting all relevant theoretical principles and facts about e-learning in general, we
will next focus on our own idea and product as the focal point of the analysis. Moreover, a
solution for an e-learning sustainability website that can be utilized by universities as part of
their education policy will be developed. This will be done by stressing out the learning goals
and levels and by suggesting appropriate solutions for reaching those goals. As a result, this
paper will give a comprehensive solution of a website ready for implementation.
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2. E-LEARNING SUSTAINABILITY WABSITE
2.1. Rationale
We choose to propose an e-learning solution for course on sustainability. The rationale
behind this innovative program of study lies in the fact that education on sustainability is
becoming a global trend and development and sustainability challenges in general are of great
importance to every aspect of life. Moreover, Universities in BiH do not offer adequate
solutions for this particular issue which demands much more attention in terms of research
and proposing solutions.
Taking this into account, and having in mind that today’s students are computer and digitally
literate, the idea is to propose a solution for an e-learning sustainability website that would
combine relevant materials, technology and internet resources to teach what sustainability
and development really is, what are the current trends, and get students involved into case
studies and projects that could benefit to the university and society in general.
2.1. Learning Goals
The goal of any course should be to transfer knowledge to the students and provide a relevant
knowledge basis for the future. Having in mind that an e-learning course is strengthened and
supported by technology; the identified learning goals as follows:
Teach people about relevant sustainability topics and challenges facing today’s society;
Train them on how to apply SD solutions ad concepts in practice;
With help of technology and internet, make the website as place where they will be thought
about SD, be informed about current issues, and have appropriate database for research.
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2.2. Solution
In order to accomplish the goals set in previous section, it is necessary to combine and
integrate different mediums and use appropriate instructional principles and techniques.
Moreover, the website needs to be designed in such a way to be appealing to students (in
terms of aesthetics and content), it needs to fulfill some basic requirements of a good website,
and it needs to make people learn and understand the topic. Design of an e-learning website is
highly dependent on the chosen learning strategy. Figure 1 (Bersin, 2004) displays six modes
of learning, or a hierarchy of
learning stages and ‘mastery’.
It can be noticed that achieving
the highest mastery level is a
multi-step process and multitechnique approach highly
dependent on technology and
internet support needs to be
used. Some examples of
learning strategies include:
storytelling,
sequences,
competency-basis,
criterionreferencing, evaluation, cooperation,
case
studies,
discovery or constructivism,
role
playing,
simulation,
games, experience, laboratory,
etc. Figure 1 – Six Modes of Learning
(McIntosh, 2008). In addition, it is necessary to keep in mind that the most effective learning
occurs when learners are actively engaged and when level of interaction is high. Taking all
this into consideration and in order to achieve learning goals and high level of mastery, the
web site design will be explained through six modes of learning (Bersin, op.cit.):
.Reading: In general, the easiest way to deliver a lesson is to give people things to read. In
web form, however reading is less valuable because people will not and cannot read long
texts on the web. Having in mind that sustainability should not be a theoretical subject, the
web site should provide well-structured materials, balance it with image content, and give
instructions in outline forms. Moreover, it should provide the download option for all of the
documents and books.
210
2.Seeing: As stated previously, heavy texts are not suitable for this type of websites. It is
necessary to enrich text by adding diagrams, photographs, and images. This is important in
the SD terms, because students need to conceptualize, visualize and be aware of the different
concepts and issues. For this purpose, website will offer assignments, presentations and case
studies enriched by photos on related topics.
4.Hearing & 4. Watching: Next set of techniques includes sound, motion, and
demonstrations. These techniques would include instructor lectures, demonstrations, videos
of real-world examples, and scenarios. Besides hearing lectures, students will be offered with
videos on sustainability issues and relevant case studies.
5.Doing: In everyday life, learning by doing or experiential learning creates the highest level
of understanding, context, and retention. That is why e-learning should strive to create
experiential activities. The biggest trend in experiential learning in web-based instruction is
simulation (Bersin, op.cit.). Simulations are a special form of web-based training that put the
learner in a real-world situation. For the purpose of learning sustainability, students will be
able to select modules and topics according to their interests, for example sustainable
development in relation with communities, climate change, politics, governance, etc. After
choosing the area of interest, students will get to use their knowledge of the SD framework to
apply it to an actual business, community or other project and produce a final project/work.
Moreover, website will offer simulation exercises, workshops, and will inform students about
occasional field trips.
6.Teaching: Certainly the most valuable way to master a subject is to teach it. With this idea
in mind, students would be required to present their area of interest and show others
what/how they approached a particular issue and what solutions they applied. Due to the
nature of the topic, students will be required to employ ABCD analysis as follows (NBIS,
2008):
A. Awareness - What they know about sustainability and why it matters for the chosen
topic?
B. Baseline Mapping - conduct sustainability ‘gap analysis’ related to the chosen
organization/issue.
C. Clear and Compelling Vision/ Creative Solutions - brainstorm potential solutions to
the issues highlighted in the baseline analysis.
D. Down to action - prioritize the measures that lead to offered solutions and
sustainability. Develop a plan for implementation.
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2.3. Tools & Design
In order to develop online course we would use several core tools divided into three groups:
1. Informational group – our website would be the centre of the course. Information would be
available there and we would use HTML (hypertext mark-up language) in order to provide
quick, easy and concrete information.
2. Materials group – here, we refer to the section in which we would provide study material
to our students. In the beginning, two ways would be used:


Live – In order to connect with our students and to have “personal touch” there must
have live classes. So during the semester, there would be organized three to four live
conferences in order to have mutual exchange of information between students and
professors. On line lectures, discussions and advices from professors would be done
through Microsoft Office Live Meeting program.
Literature – In order to provide our student with material we would use following
tools:
o PowerPoint – Lectures would be delivered to students through e-mails or it
could be downloaded directly from website.
o PDF – Lectures that would support PowerPoint presentations, additional
reading, homework and all other course related material would be delivered to
students in PDF formats. As already said, we would use PDF in order to deliver
homework material. We would have option to deliver scanned bills or invoices
to our students, so they could feel what accounting is.
o Windows Media Player – Lectures could be recorded on DVDs, practical
things could be in video modes and all of this could be delivered to students.
Ordinary video player such as Windows Media Player could be used in order to
watch material
o Excel – Numerical data would be provided in excel form.
3. Research studies – Since sustainability is an ongoing issue, debated each day, online
research studies would be provided for students. The separate page would be consisted put of
three parts:
News – This section would provide latest news and actions on sustainability, summits,
meeting, conferences and all other important events that are recently all will be done in the
future. Additionally, it would provide articles on sustainability and several other reports done
by individuals from different parts of the world.
Library – Huge collection of online books and published papers has to be there in order for
students to be able to easily access information from different topics related to sustainability
(economical, environmental, social and other categories).
212
Research programs – As main program there would be Microsoft Dynamics (Microsoft,
2009) that is customized for sustainable development process. This program could be used
online while two or more people could be connected in separate room. In that “room” they
would have communication ability and could do researches much efficiently. Another
advantage for this usage would be that mentor could also be “on the other side” and give
instructions and guidelines during the research process. Additionally, students could chat and
share knowledge and experience with other students and work on several other projects all
around the world.
4. Examination group – All types of examination (finals, midterms, quizzes and homework)
would be done online. To examine students we would use:

Microsoft Word – This tool would be used for theoretical part of examination.
Figure 2 – Course Matrix
STUDENT
Website (HTML)
SUSTAINABILITY COURSE
RESEARCH
News
Information, registration, announcements
Live & recorded lectures
Library
Literature
Research program
EXAMS
2.4. Technical Issues
In order to provide high quality education, we should be aware of several technical issues that
we could face while providing this type of service. Among these issues we identify three
most common:



Do our students have adequate equipment to follow our education?
Is our course, materials and information easily accessible?
Is our Technical Service good and how people with problems can contact them?
So, in order to develop e-learning, organization has to take into consideration many things
that could affect the process. From the questions we could see that organization should know
if students have compatible equipment in order to apply for the course. Then they examine
their self in order to see are they good enough to provide such service. Do they have enough
213
resource and capabilities? Even if they are strong, they should always try to find ways for
improvement.
3. CONCLUSION
After taking everything into consideration, it can be concluded that e-learning is surely
becoming the education tool of today. The benefits and opportunities this kind of learning
provides for the students/users are unquestionable. When it comes to the solution proposed in
this paper, if properly designed, e-learning sustainability website can not only bring this topic
closer to the students, but can also make them capable of proposing and creating solutions for
sustainability issues of today’s.
REFERENCES
Bersin, J. (2004). The Blended Learning Book: “Best Practices, Proven Methodologies, and
Lessons Learned”. Pfeiffer.
Microsoft, 2009. Driving environmental sustainability practices with Microsoft Dynamics.
[Online] Available at: http://www.microsoft.com/dynamics/en/gulf/environment.aspx
[Accessed 25 April 2012].
McEwen, L., (2006). Education for sustainable development for taught postgraduates:
Designing effective active co-learning environments for on-site and distance learning
students. Pp.21-31
McIntosh. D. (2008). E-learning course design. <http://www.trimeritus.com/design.pdf>
[accessed December 17, 2011]
NBIS – Network for Business Innovation and Sustainability (2008), Sustainability using the
Natural Step Framework,
<http://nbis.org/nbisresources/sustainability_frameworks/naturalstep_duke_castle_nbis_prese
ntation.pdf> [accessed March 15, 2012]
Uhomoibhi, J., O. (2006). E-learning and Engineering Education for Sustainable
Development. 9th International Conference on Engineering Education. University of Ulster,
Northern Ireland, pp. 2
(WCED), (1987). World Commission on Environment and Development Our Common
Future. New York: Oxford University Press
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E-Government in a Bosnia and Herzegovina Municipality
Ozlen Kursad, Smajic Edin, Ozlen Serife
International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
E –mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
For the last ten years, e-life has grown up rapidly contingent upon the development of high
speed technology and turbulent world economy. One of e-life applications is e-government
that revolutionary changed the way things were done and procedures were conducted. In this
study, the notion of e-government is examined and some concepts about contents, purposes,
functions and definitions of e-government are given. The evolution of the idea is studied in
light of its practical repercussions.
In this paper, E-Government implementation through one of Bosnia and Herzegovina
municipalities will be researched. A survey-based study is applied to empirically test the EGovernment implementation in Bosnia and Herzegovina administration.
The survey was evaluated descriptively. The conclusion and the discussion respectively
provide the results of the survey and address the future research areas with all its limitations.
Keywords: E-Government, survey, descriptive analysis
1.INTRODUCTION
For the last decades, technology has substantially improved and expanded. Technological
applications and widespread use of technological tools, have affected human being life and
structure of organizations.
The functions of cities and their share in human being life started to change with
technological improvements by the Industrial Revolution started in 1870s. Information and
communication technologies which have improved fast for the last 50 years have changed all
aspects of the life (commerce, production, work, education, home life, law, management
styles, etc.). This change triggered innovation and change in the public management styles
like in governments and municipalities (Coruh, 2008).
Today, one of the most common technological applications is the World Wide Web (WWW)
and computers. The usage of the World Wide Web (WWW) and computers provide the
215
organizations to introduce themselves, to give information about the structure of the
organization, to make announcements, to do operations through net, etc. These activities can
be performed in a shorter period of time, with less staff, and can reach more people.
Especially smaller, intelligent and flexible organizations based on productive economies
instead of scale economies have appeared with Information Technologies. Therefore, to
control the autonomous and local management style organizations, based on Information, was
chosen instead of hierarchical and bureaucratic management systems. Expansion of Internet
and computer networks has removed the coordination and control problems of these
autonomous units (Marin, 2004).
Coordination and collaboration are very important for the organizations to be successful.
These are actually, the reasons of the existence of the organization. The organizations should
use the improvements to achieve these goals. The expectations of the society force the
organizations for the improvements. The adaptation of the public for the development in a
short period of time and increased expectation for digital service, from the government, has
increased the speed of transition to internet phase.
According to Steidel (2003), the effect of “Digital Revolution” has increased growingly in
American's daily lives. The citizens now can reach a lot of services which could only be
dreamed before a few years ago. The expectations of the citizens, using electronic services in
their daily lives, have been changed. The governmental offices have realized this situation to
use the chance which has been created by the change in transaction methods among the
citizens (Steidel, 2003).
Creating a service environment by using electronic network systems by government has
developed the definition of e-government.
2. What is E-Government?
There is no common definition of e-government (electronic government, also known as egov, digital government, online government or in a certain context: transformational
government). Briefly, e-government has been referred to as the application of Internet-based
technologies to the commercial and non-commercial activities of the government (OECD,
1998). Broadly, e-government is defined as the different ways in which governments and
public managers contact and interact with their citizens through their Web sites, but also
other Internet uses (e-mail or IRC), and different tools, like video conferencing, touch-tone
data entry, CD-ROM, private intranets, or satellites and antennas (Criado et al., 2002). It can
also be defined as:
. . . the use of information technologies (such as Wide Area Networks, the Internet, and
mobile computing) by government agencies that have the ability to establish the relations
with citizens, businesses, and the other arms of government. These technologies can serve a
variety of different users, better delivery of government services to citizens, improved
216
interactions with business and industry, citizen empowerment through access to information,
or more efficient management of the government. The final benefits can be less corruption,
increased transparency, greater convenience, revenue growth, and/or cost reductions (World
Bank Group, 2003).
E-Government is the presentation of the services given by the government in an electronic
environment. By this way, governmental services can be delivered to the citizens very easily,
effectively without interrupted and in a qualified, fast, and safe way. The understanding of egovernment has taken the place of bureaucratic and classic government notions. And it aims
every organization and individual to reach the government by using systems of information
technologies (http://edevlet.turksat.com.tr).
E-Government as understood from the name is electronic government. By this project, some
services and applications of the government can be completed over the internet. By this
means, besides providing an improved and fast service to the citizens, organizations and
corporations, it is also a time and money saving system (http://edevlet.turksat.com.tr).
The citizens have also responsibilities to the government. Therefore, e-Government is
performing mutually all the duties and responsibilities between the government and citizens
on digital environment in a reliable and continuous way (http://www.digitaldevlet.org).
Ever since the Clinton’s presidential administration began to popularize the idea of
reinventing government in the United States, citizens had increased expectations for how
information technology (IT) could help to make government more efficient and to improve
services. In 1993, Vice President Gore gave an effort to explore how the internet could be
employed in the services of the government to revolutionize and reengineer historically
bureaucratic processes, and his report, “Reengineering through Information Technology”,
reflects the key role of business process reengineering (BPR) on these early efforts (US
Government, 1993). As he stated:
. . . the idea of reengineering by using the technology is critical. We didn’t want to automate
the old and worn processes of government. Information technology (IT) was before and is
now the great enabler for reinvention. It allows us to rethink, in fundamental ways, how
people work and how we serve customers (Gore, 1997).
2.1.What is the scope of e-government services?
E-Government projects aim to form a better expansive understanding of a government
structure. E-Government is focused on the works of government except “e”. Basic
fundamental components of the notion are e-company, e-corporation, and e-citizen. Each of
them tries to improve the e-notion inside and they will be affected from each other and
therefore will be more powerful. As a result, e-government can be constructed (http:
www.digitaldevlet.org).
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2.2.Why is e-Government?
There is a need to question the objectives, applications, and benefits and worse outcomes of
the applications. Therefore, the objectives of e-government may be: (1) Transparency of the
government; (2) To provide a fast, effective, and efficient mechanism for the government; (3)
To incorporate all the citizens at every level of the management; (4) To provide the share of
the knowledge; (5) To provide easy life to the citizens; (6) To establish a better environment
for the Decision Makers to make fast and right decisions, etc.
After the implementation, then the expected benefits may be: (1) Time consumption can be
decreased; (2) The costs will be decreased and the efficiency will be increased; (3) The
satisfaction will be improved; (4) Economic improvement will be supported; (5) Life
standards will be higher; (6) Individuals’ share will be better; (7) Dependence on paper and
its use can be lesser; (8) The public information that the citizens want to achieve, can be
reached from anywhere and in a faster way. Therefore the people’s failures can be decreased;
(9) Decisions for both the public and the citizens can be faster and easier; (10) The citizens'
requests can be considered easily; (11) The relations between the government and the citizens
can be improved. And a reliable environment can be created; (12) When the citizens reach
right information in a short period of time, the trust for the government can be higher (The
Premiership of Turkey (Başbakanlık), 2002).
The ICTs impact on public administration is accepted as one of the emergent issues among
the public management styles. In spite of few academic researches on e-government, in one
of his seminal articles Hood (1995) suggested that the term informatization may not be
elegant, but it fulfills a need. The term is used to denote the diffusion of computers connected
through telecommunication networks as a part of newest fundamental technology of public
administration.
The past research indicates that various e-government initiatives have been undertaken, and
have had varied success degrees to achieve the desired outcomes and benefits (Bellamy,
1999). It has also found that there are significant differences between public and private
organizations. Therefore, some necessary steps should be taken to reinvent government and
achieve e-government success (Gulledge and Sommer, 2002).
E-government provides various opportunities for city, county and state governmental units to
facilitate their operational efficiency and improve their influences to satisfy the needs of
citizens. E-government forces organizations to think about specific constituencies, their
problems and their life events to improve solutions through organizational boundaries to
address specific needs of their customers (Fagan, 2006). Studies describing e-government
initiatives that serve a range of constituencies include the applications of: government-tocitizen (G2C), government-to-business (G2B), government-to-employee (G2E), and
government-to-government (G2G) (Fagan, 2006; Erdal, 2004).
Government to citizen (G2C): The applications such as death and birth information, the
procedures related to marriage, transactions of registration for land, finding jobs, searching
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easily all the services which the government provides (much of the citizens are not aware of
these services), health services, (e.g., arranging an appointment with the doctor or to see the
blood analysis online), requesting to governmental offices and searching for requests results,
and so on.
Government to Business (G2B): Following the operations of import and export, taxation
services, auctions announcements, making announcements to encourage the companies in a
short period of time, customs related transactions, bill payments, are some of G2B
applications.
Government and employee relations (G2E): The communication of the government with its
employees through electronic systems is used to regulate the work hours, to give the
information about salary and insurance, to announce staff seminars, and other announcements
(job, death, marriage, etc.)
Relations among the units of the Government (G2G): Government should use internet as a
fast communication tool to provide a continuous relation not only with the environment but
also with its units. In case of an interruption on a service, the other municipality offices can
be aware of this event.
E-government concept has been improved much in many parts of the world. The
Government's response to the Australian public's growing reliance on online government
information services, such as australia.gov.au, as the preferred medium for interacting with
government is one of the successful e-government applications (Nairn, 2007).
Almost all local government institutions, besides internet based applications, have
constructed their web-sites (for commercial use, touristic and local information and services,
discussion boards and action groups) as well as by establishing videotext systems, electronic
kiosks, and intelligent-card systems, they have provided an information environment for
public systems. And they have targeted to increase their service quality and to provide
integration among them. They have opened the local communities for public use by
establishing connections among society centers, public libraries, and schools through internet
(Velibeyoğlu, 2004).
Although, e-government concept has improved much, there are some problems on both the
government side and the stakeholders’ side. In most parts of the world, for many reasons the
concept of e-government hasn’t succeeded yet, even, in England. A research study finds out
that there are a large number of English adults who are ready, willing and able to use echannels, potential early adopters of e-government. On the other hand take-up is low, because
e-channels’ awareness is low. One solution to increase the take-up process is to run
purposeful marketing communication campaigns. The gross potential for take-up market is
about 17.5 million above the age of 15 in England (Mellor, 2006).
There are significant differences among stakeholder groups based on their types of
organizational membership. Stakeholders of local governments are quite less optimistic to
219
achieve their goals, and worried more about a variety of organizational, technological, and
financial barriers (Zhang, Dawes and Sarkis, 2005).
Local administrations are citing both what they have done so far and technical problems
which they have met. They are:









development (roads, hospital, school, mosque, etc)
municipal police (fines, public health, clean-up, etc)
fire brigade (forest fires, etc)
infrastructure (water, waste-water, solid waste)
environment (open-space area, parks, forestation)
Disaster management (earthquake, flood, soil erosion etc.)
local taxes (information on rates and application)
health services
public education (http://www.yerelnet.org.tr/yyaem/about_us.php)
While converting the old system into an e-Government system, the primary steps to be taken
can be ordered as:
Legal background: The related legal regulations should be done.
Technological background: The infrastructure of technological background should be created
and the applications should be started rapidly.
Financing e-Government: To finance the government in preparing classical budgeting
methods should be left and the new models should be developed.
Human: Adapting and training the society to the planned and considered systems, and the
Change Management should be run.
Service Background Development: The efficient and effective technologies which the users
can benefit should be determined and the needed structure should be constructed.
Forming The Service Mechanism: An active information share system among all egovernment units should be formed and the content should be constituted.
Confidence and Security: e-Government services should store the information of the users in
a safe environment, and the users should be made sure that the security principles are
regularly performed.
Construction of a Coordination Center: This is one of the most important priorities. All the
public units should be managed from a single Coordination Center and a Government Portal
should be constructed (The Premiership (Başbakanlık), 2002).
3.Research Methodology
A survey study was performed on one of the fastest growing BiH municipalities. The target
population in the municipality was determined by the responsible person in the municipality.
220
Therefore the study was restricted to the number of 35 respondents. The respondents are all
selected from the top level positions within the municipality. Ten of the respondents were
men.
According to the survey results, it is obvious that there is an expectation of the citizens from
the municipality to use E-Government applications. On the other hand, the support of the
federal and local administrations seems weak. The respondents in the municipality believe
that the municipality can afford E-Government activities with an additional budget and the
municipality has an available technologic infrastructure to run E-Government applications.
However, they slightly agree that the municipality needs help of a consulting company to
execute an E-Government project (Table 1).
Table 1 E-Government Enablers and Barriers
The staff in the municipality accepts the need for an E-Government application and they
agree that it was a helpful tool to support the work. Furthermore, they believe that the
municipality wants to implement E-Government projects (Table 2).
Table 2 Executive Support
The staff has almost strong belief that E-Government projects can save the money and time,
shorten work in progress time and supplement, facilitate learning, knowledge sharing,
empowering and common vision of the municipality, help the municipality on its
announcements (Table 3).
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Table 3 Productivity of E-Government Projects
It has been strongly shown in the study that E-Government projects are believed to be helpful
on managerial issues such as the integration of the departments, the quality of integrated
information, effective and efficient decision making capabilities, the synchronization between
the units, the control of processes, keeping the data secure, transparency of the works,
incorporating the citizens in every level of the management, etc. (Table 4).
Table 4 Influences of E-Government Activities on Management
E-Government projects can also be helpful on improving the transactions of municipality and
citizen, government, business and municipality staff (Table 5).
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Table 5 E-Government Projects and Governmental Transactions
The respondents strongly agree that there are some difficulties which the municipality might
have during E-Government projects such as legal, technological, financial, training of both
staff and citizens, developing an active information share system among the units,
information security, building a single coordination center, e-channel awareness of the
citizens, etc. (Table 6).
Table 6 Difficulties in E-Government Implementations
4. Discussion
While it was believed that the e-government will be suitable only for wealthy nations and that
the progress to reach developing world will last for a very long time the internet revolution
has proven otherwise. The use of electronic solution has troubled every nation from Vanuatu
to Mali, from Switzerland to Bosnia to Swaziland. They all aspire to improve their services
by using electronic means because, for many, their survival depends on those services.
The worst opponents at the outset of the internet emergence have become the advocates of
the electronic services and electronic solutions generally simply because they realized that
this approach and technology is not only unavoidable but also it is a key to success despite all
223
the weaknesses. Hence, those who embraced it and effected the change survived all others
simply perished.
Big nations and their central governments take this issue very seriously and aspire to improve
their e-governance in all affairs and in all levels. The developing ones also aspire to
implement and make use of new technologies in their administrations. However, this is rather
a process in the making and its end results are neither visible nor finite. Thus, if tackled
properly e-governance can make a real difference and may secure survival to some
governments but it can also elevate one nation over the other or others as in the case of
Singapore or some Scandinavian countries.
5. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS
This paper best illustrate that e-government is equally important in the USA, Turkey, Bosnia
and Herzegovina or any other country. Despite the political, economic, social, technological,
legal and human issues and problems, e-governance enhances the operations of the
administration and brings its services closer to the end-users rather conveniently.
The literature review not only brings the definition and shows the importance of the
Electronic government but it also proves that the e-government greatly improves various
relationships such as: G2C, G2B, G2E, G2G… It also provides an insight that great many
leaders stress the importance of the electronic governance and administration as in the case of
Clinton and Gore per se.
The research findings show that albeit the difficulties in getting appropriate support from
higher authorities, this local Bosnian government shows high respect for new technologies
and new processes in their environment although it may trigger unpleasant change to some of
them.
Unfortunately, although all the heads of the departments and their assistants filed the
questionnaire the number of respondents amounted only to 35. Further research should be
undertaken to examine the wider scope of the stakeholders in order to see the response of the
users and the higher levels of the administration of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The authors agree that the e-government is a great opportunity for small and developing
nations such as Bosnia and Herzegovina with its complex and multi level governments where
in practice some parts of the government simply look detached from the other. Being a small
country in terms of geography and its population it makes it easier to implement the egovernment provided that there is a will from the government’s head. In the case of this very
municipality this will is rather obvious.
224
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Bellamy, C. (1999). Joining-up government in the UK: towards public services for an
information age. Australian Journal of Public Administration, Vol. 58 No. 3, pp. 89-103
Coruh (2008). Bilişim Teknolojisi, Ekonomisi ve Toplumu. Evde, Okulda, İşyerinde ve
Kentte Yaşantımız Nasıl Değişiyor?, Ankara.
Criado, J.I., Hughes, O.E. and Teicher, J. (2002). E-government and managerialism: a
second revolution on public management. VI International Symposium on Public
Management, Edinburgh University, Edinburgh, 8-10 April.
Erdal, M. (2004). Electronik Devlet, www.turkiyegov.tr
Fagan, M. H. (2006). Exploring city, county and state e-government initiatives: an East Texas
perspective. College of Business and Technology, University of Texas, Tyler, Texas, USA
Gore, A. (1997). “Introduction”, The Report of the National Performance Review.
Government Information Technology Services Board, Access America, available at: http://
govinfo.library.unt.edu/accessamerica/docs/intro.html.
Gulledge, T.R. and Sommer, R.A. (2002). Business process management: public sector
implications. Business Process Management Journal, Vol. 8 No. 4, pp. 364-76
Hood, C., 1995, “Emerging issues in public administration”, Public Administration, Vol. 73
No. 2, pp. 165-83.
http://edevlet.turksat.com.tr
http://www.digitaldevlet.org
http://www.yerelnet.org.tr/yyaem/about_us.php
Marin, (2004). Elektronik Küresel Mekânlar, Tele-Koloniler Ve Türkiye’deki Kentler.
http://www.bilgiyonetimi.org/
Mellor, N. (2006). E-citizen: Developing research-based marketing communications to
increase awareness and take-up of local authority e-channels. Aslib Proceedings
Nairn, G. (2007). Driving innovation into e-government. Information Age (Australia)
OECD, (1998). Information technology as an instrument of public management reform.
www.oecd.org/puma
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DIŞİŞLERİ BAKANLIĞI ELEKTRONİK DERGİSİ, Demokrasi Konuları, EKİM 2003
CİLT 8 SAYI 2
The Premiership of Turkey (Başbakanlık). (2002). Bilgi Toplumuna Doğru: Türkiye Bilişim
Şurası Taslak Raporu. Türkiye Bilişim Şurası, Ankara,s.212
225
US Government. (1993). Reengineering through information technology”, Accompanying
Report of the National Performance Review, Office of the Vice President, September,
available at: http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/npr/library/reports/it.html.
Velibeyoğlu, K. (2004). Bilgi Teknolojileri destekli kentsel gelisme stratejileri. Yapi ve
Kentte Bilisim, Ankara
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Bank
Group.
(2003).
A
definition
www1.worldbank.org/publicsector/ egov/definition.htm.
of
e-government.
Zhang, J., Dawes, S., and Sarkis, J. (2005). Exploring stakeholders' expectations of the
benefits and barriers of e-government knowledge sharing. Journal of Enterprise Information
Management
An Assessment on Evolution of Regional Development Concept
Ulu Emriye1, Kiymalioğlu S. Umit2
1Akdeniz University Alanya Business Faculty, Alanya, Turkey
2Akdeniz Univesity Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Antalya, Turkey
E – mails: [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
Associating the terms, knowledge, innovation and learning, with development is not a
new process. The innovation as the primary source of competitive advantage in capitalist
economies had been postulated firstly in Marx and Schumpeter’s ideas. But in parallel with
evolution process of development theories and studies, addressing the concepts on regional
level and within the framework of sustainability is a new process. It is seen apparently that
interest in “region” concept has a considerable place in development studies from the early
1990s. Now regions are seen as opened identitites and are exposured to the effects of
international competition directly. Right at this point, the development efforts of lagging
regions by “cut and copy” transfer practice of the development models and policy
instruments of advanced regions have lost their meanings. Prior development models which
used to focus on physical infrastructure and capital endowment have been replaced with
internal models emphasizing the accumulation of intellectual capital and intangible assets.
Key source of competitive advantage is defined as the capacities of regions to support
226
learning and innovation processes. To achieve and sustain the competitive development on
regional level, such models and instruments are required that, they will consider the unique
features and differences of regions, built on the peculiarities of different regions, , not general
but customized and bottom up participatory, have ability to constitute exploitable advantages.
In accordance with the saying, “think globally, act locally”; the concept of sustainability
also shifted from its global understanding to such an understanding which is fed from local
and regional applications.When a region starts to develop, region’s sustainability must be
examined. An ecological deficit which may emerge, should also affect the neighbour
developed regions inevitably. So regional development should not be thought independent
from sustainability. At this point, two concepts come to the scene; “regional sustainable
development” and “sustainable regional development”. The difference is that, for “regional
sustainable development” enviromental objectives and targets are in the forefront, while
economic goals have priority in “sustainable regional development”. But in the second one,
to maintain the sustainability of regional development, some enviromental precautions and
policies are considered too.
This study aims to offer critics of recent studies and provide some inferences to possible
directions for further research by examining the studies, particularly the ones which
reconsider the innovation, knowledge and regional development relation in framework of
sustainability. In the study, firstly the conditions will be underlined which led the emergence
of “the new regional development approach”, focusing on the local dynamics as driving
forces of regional development. And then, in relation to evolving debates about sustainability
and regional development, the forefront concepts- like “learning regions”, “innovative
milieux”, regional networks- will be held within its intellectual context and clarified how they
are situated and conceptualized in empirical studies. In this context, new development models
and the internal drivers of regional development should be revealed. And finally the reached
findings will be examined in terms of common goals for sustainable development and some
inferences for further research will be offered.
Keywords: sustainable development, innovation, knowledge, regional development,
development models, new regional development approach, sustainability.
1.INTRODUCTION
Prior development models which used to focus on physical infrastructure and capital
endowment have been replaced with internal models emphasizing the accumulation of
intellectual capital and intangible assets. Key source of competitive advantage is defined as
the capacities of regions to support learning and innovation processes. To achieve and sustain
the competitive development on regional level, such models and instruments are required
that, they will consider the unique features and differences of regions, built on the
227
peculiarities of different regions, , not general but customized and bottom up participatory,
have ability to constitute exploitable advantages.
This study aims to offer critics of recent studies and provide some inferences to possible
directions for further research by examining the studies, particularly the ones which
reconsider the innovation, knowledge and regional development relation in framework of
sustainability. In the study, firstly the conditions will be underlined by taking a look at the
theoretical background which led the emergence of “the new regional development
approach”. And then, in relation to evolving debates about sustainability and regional
development, the essential concepts of development will be held within in regional
development studies. In this context, new development models and the internal drivers of
regional development should be revealed. And finally the reached findings will be examined
in terms of common goals for sustainable development and some inferences for further
research will be offered.
2. Theoretical Background of Development
The interest to development subject has increased just after the II.World War. The first
reason is the desire for international trade and capital flow revival. And the second reason is
the efforts of countries, which acquired political independence newly, to acquire
independence also from economic aspects. For these countries, national liberation is almost
identified with economic development. Before exploring “new development theories”, it
should be more proper to take a look at the former approaches.
Traditional Development Economics Approach(1950 and 1960s), focusing on national
development, states that countries follow a linear development path and underdevelopment is
a transient phase. According to Rostow, each country should experience the same historical
process inevitably. This approach seeks for the reasons of underdevelopment in internal
structures of countries; like gaps in savings, investment or lack of market size.
According to Structuralist Approach, the key factor of development is capital
accumulation. The inadequacy of capital accumulation is a result of the lack of market size
and other structural problems. To solve the market size problem, international trade should be
seen as a preference. Singer, one of the pioneers of structuralist approach, states that
international trade and foreign investments are not for the benefit of underdeveloped
countries but they constitute obstacles to development. The structuralists, suggested
following a planned import-substitution strategy to support the development efforts and to
protect import-substitutive sectors. But the experiences showed that these implementations
had increased the dependency of underdeveloped countries to imports. The importsubstitutive sectors which benefit from protection facilities had developed against to export
sectors. The import-substitution policies, suggesting the protection of the country’s economy
as a whole, bogged down in many parts of the world and largely abandoned in the early
1980s.
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Traditional development approach, which correlates development to internal factors
couldn’t solve the underdevelopment problems. By the 1960s, other approaches which
correlate development to external factors, rather than internal ones, took their place on
development literature. Dependency theory is the most comprehensive between them. They
connected the underdevelopment directly to the dependency relations with Western countries.
The new developments and the dynamics of World Economy necessitated the
development subject to be handled from different and new perspectives due to the failure of
traditional old development approaches. Thus, New Development Approaches(NDA) have
been proposed: Neo-Liberal Approach, Endogenous Growth, Human-Centered Development,
Egalitarian Approach, Basic Needs Approach, Veblen-Ayres Theory and Sustainable
Development Approach can be counted under NDA(Doğan,2010).
Neo-liberal Development Approaches(early 1980s), claimed that for the problems of
underdeveloped countries there is no need for a new economic approach aside the
neoclassical economics. They take “market” as fundamental variable and see the
interventions of governments as obstacles to development. Governments should reduce these
interventions and make privatizations. As well as, they should implement the structural
adjustment programs to keep pace with globalization. Unlike the former development
literature, this approach offers common solutions for all the countries(Dolun,2006). This
approach exclude all the phenomena placed outside the commodity economy and take human
only by its economic dimension (Partant, 2002). By neo-liberal approaches, government
interventions are replaced by new issues like: technological improvement, specialization,
knowledge and scale economies. With neo-liberal approaches, dynamic optimization models
have been replaced of traditional development models(Saxonhouse,1988). It’s seen that the
implementation of policies based on these approaches by the early 1990s, increased the gap
between developed and underdeveloped countries and the predictions of convergence theory
didn’t happen.
Endogenous Growth Approaches, brought a new perspective in terms of source of
economic development. Differently from neo-liberal approaches, they don’t take the
economic growth as a result of external drivers but a result of economic system’s internal
drivers(Romer, 1994). Knowledge, human capital and technological progress are internalized,
like labor and capital, by this approach. Endogenous growth theories put the technological
issues to the center of the analysis and focus on the dimensions like learning by doing,
external economies, and accumulation of human capital. They reject the convergence theory
and embrace the divergence theory. The biggest lack of these approaches is that, they don’t
include topics like societies’ institutional features and social differences. They depend on a
lot of neoclassical assumptions, inappropriate for underdeveloped countries. Therefore, the
implementation of endogenous growth approaches to development area remains restricted.
Human-centered Development Approaches: They criticize traditional approaches as they
transformed the concept of development into a commodity-based definition; devoid from
human variables and differentiating from emancipatory content (Ingham, 1993).
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Development is associated with life and so must focus on living standards. Development is
such a process that; beside economic growth blessings of this growth is distributed evenly,
during growth rather than destroying environment it is renewed, human choices are increased
and opportunities for participation of people in decisions that affect their lives are also
increased. From this perspective development, neither can be reduced to technological
problems nor restricted with economic growth (Kelleber, 1993).
Egalitarian Development Approach, argued that ensuring the equitable distribution of
income is of great importance as well as increase in income. Almost one quarter of world
population lives in absolute poverty. Beside this, the richest %20 of world population gets the
%80 of world revenue. Negative developments in terms of income distribution created by
neo-liberal policies implemented in recent years, necessitated the development concept to be
addressed in the context of equity.
The understanding behind Basic Needs Approach this approach is that, ensuring directly
the basic needs; such as health, education, nutrition, housing, lead to a reduction in absolute
poverty more quickly than alternative strategies. Increasing the income and productivity of
poor’s is linked to obtainment of their basic needs firstly. Putting basic needs approach into
practice, which has brought a new perspective to development concept, is nearly impossible.
The approach focuses on the social needs covering the poor majority, not on the individual
needs.
Sustainable Development represents transition to environmentally compatible growth
from growth against to environment. Traditional development approaches assume that natural
source supply and the transformation possibility of them to products during production
process is infinite. So they neglect the long-term negative affects of production on natural
environment. The commodification of nature in frame of capitalist production logic led
nature destruction. Sustainable development aims to prevent consumption of sources faster
than renewal rate of them.
3. Essential Concepts (Innovation, Knowledge,
Competitiveness) and Sustainable Regional Development
Sustainability,
Regional
Following the II.World War, after the development policies started to be implemented, it
had been seen that economic and social activities were clustering around a natural center in
every country. This increased the polarity between regions and led to big imbalances. Thus
the economic and social cost of development had increased and it had been understood that
the development plans should give an extra special importance to the regions of the country.
Otherwise these issues would continue to create obstacles against nation’s development.
After this, “development” and “region” concepts were inevitably thought together. But still
the issue had been handled at national level and the dominant approaches were Traditional
Development Approaches summarized above. In early policies and studies, development was
used to be taken at the level of national economy policies. It was believed that, eliminating
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the development differences between the regions of a country was the best solution for
succeeding the national development. The way of ensuring the convergence of the lagging
regions to advanced regions was seen as the same. Lagging regions should follow and imitate
the advanced ones and so the differences between regions should be minimized. Thus
governments started to provide financial incentives to the lagging regions for catching the
advanced ones.
By 1990’s, a big transition occurred in terms of development approaches. With increasing
globalization of production and finance, the meaning of the term “region” also has started to
change. Regions started to be seen as opened economic entities which exposure to the
international competition directly. This has changed the attention focus from national-level to
regional-level intervention if regions are to be able to shape their own development prospects
in a climate of rapid technological change and increased capital mobility. A new approach
has been adopted, focusing to increase competitiveness of all regions by taking privileges,
needs and strong features of each region. Achieving the structural adaptation of regions to
globalization became one of the fundamental problems of today’s policy makers. Also, taking
competitiveness as a goal which should be reached by short term instruments is abandoned by
time. The newest understanding in regional development area is, sustaining the
competitiveness of regions in such a competitive world. This requires taking the subject in a
dynamic perspective. As a result of increasing globalization of World, both consumers and
producers are looking for differentiated products. This transformation requires abandoning
traditional regional development policies, which used to take regions as if they were
homogenous identities. Prior development models have been replaced with internal models
emphasizing the accumulation of intellectual capital and intangible assets. Key source of
competitive advantage is defined as the capacities of regions to support learning and
innovation processes. To achieve and sustain the competitive development on regional level,
such models and instruments are required that, they will consider the unique features and
differences of regions, built on the peculiarities of different regions, not general but
customized and bottom up participatory, have ability to constitute exploitable advantages.
The new economic growth models are interested in dynamic factors like; human capital,
innovation, knowledge and entrepreneurship. For achievement of regional sustainable
development, innovation and innovation capacity are seen as essential factors. (Ionescu,2011)
Innovation is the transformation of an idea into a marketable product or service, a new or
improved manufacturing or distribution process. Innovation and knowledge are fundamental
to the economic development, growth and future competitiveness of regions. Knowledge is
embodied in people and innovation is recombining of existing knowledge into new processes.
Today’s society is dominated by modern information flows and communication technologies.
The concept of knowledge, at the heart of the regional debate during the nineties, was
also influential in constructing some relevant elements of the political discourse at the
national as well at the supra-national level. Public statements like the EU’s ‘Lisbon Strategy’
or the Territorial Agenda of the European Union (2007) reflect the idea that regional and
231
national prosperity depends more and more on the rate of knowledge embodied in economic
and social
systems(Segre, 2011; p.2).
Ionescu(2011), aims to create a base of analysis for systems’ parameters’ evaluation , the
territorial dimension of these systems and the role of the institutions inside the regional
innovation, learning and development partnership. According to Ionescu(2011); the
preceding studies on this subject failed to offer the territorial dimension of innovation,
learning and development, the important role of institutions in defining and implementing the
specific regional systems. The approaches to the issue can be classified into two; as analytical
approach and theoretical scientific approach. Analytical approaches generate the empirical
base of the regional innovation, learning and development policies. The scientific approach
analyses and systematizes the most important ideas and argues of the researches in the
regional innovation, learning and development regional systems, to realize a scientific base
for a pertinent analysis. Ionescu(2011); bands two approaches together and goes through with
a new model connected to continuous learning policies, “creative industries” and the regional
development.
From a dynamic and systemic perspective, human resources become crucial in setting up
the region’s innovative capacity (Ho, 2004). Following various currents in the literature,
Ferreira(2011) strives to take Regional Innovation System(RIS) analysis a little further by
adopting an eclectic approach. Ferreira et al. built in an innovation function that links the
ideas promoted by Muller(2009) with regard to the first contribution of Knowledge Intensive
Business Services(KIBS) to regional innovation systems with the notions of entrepreneurship
capital developed by Audretsch(2004) and Acs(2004) and with a helps transform knowledge
spillovers into real economic opportunities is very important for RIS and, simultaneously,
carries a social dimension that is essential when studying a systemic reality. Their results
seem broadly robust and imply that the majority of factors considered contribute to the
regional innovative performance as proxied by a variable that unites patenting and trade
marking. From their results, they point out that the KIBS sector seems to be essential and as
expected, human capital plays a central role in fostering innovation as does regional
technological endowment. They state that data unavailability prevented them from computing
the importance of R&D efforts and R&D personnel, thus their results showed only a weak but
positive role for universities. Nevertheless, they expect to investigate this and other missing
aspects.
Janschitz(2010) adapted Neuro-Linguistic Programming(NLP), an approach to
communication, personal development, and psychotherapy created in the 1970, to regional
development in two ways. The concepts, like learning regions, creative milieus, network
approaches, transdisciplinary case studies are not tackling question of regional identities and
values. Therefore, Janschitz(2010) developed a concept on the basis of a common set of
values and beliefs, which is directing the endogenous, self-organizing and self-sustaining
development measures/actions to achieve value-led results. The introduction of two social
232
theory approaches, adapted from NLP, namely “the concept of logical levels” and “the
concept of regional modeling” will result in a value-led and participatory regional
development (Janschitz,2010)
Regional modeling is the result of regional benchmarking and the process of transferring
best-practice cases of successful regions (model region) at different logical levels to a
modeling region. Regional modeling, using the value-led logics of sustainability consists of
different modeling processes to cope with the social, economic, ecological, and institutional
opportunities and challenges of a region. It is clear that this approach is neither a fast nor an
easy option for regional development. It probably needs years of consequent work to achieve
sustainable success and guarantee adaptation, and successful change in regions. But this is the
best approach for applied scientists and regional development actors, who follow the
paradigm of a respectful, human oriented, value based, transdisciplinary research, and who
see regional development no longer as a discipline of “analyzing, constructing and optimizing
a spatial order”, but include the involvement of concerned people in order to attain logical
hierarchy based and value-led results as a response to global challenges. (Janschitz,2010).
Characterizing innovation as a social, non-linear and interactive learning process raises
the question of the role of socio-cultural structures in innovation processes. The socioinstitutional environment where innovations emerge plays an essential role in successful
innovation processes. From a regional point of view, innovation is often understood as a
locally embedded process that takes place within the regional innovation system.The locally
embedded process is formed of heterogeneous groups of different kinds of actors including
representatives of firms, universities, technology centers and development organizations. It is
regionally crucial to increase the capacity of these institutions enhancing regional innovative
capability (Harmaakorpi, 2003)
Regional competitiveness leading to regional success and wellbeing can be measured in
many ways. However, when assessing sustainable regional competitiveness one indicator
rises above the others: productivity. As Krugman(1994) referring to competitiveness and
economic growth puts it “productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost
everything”. Porter(1998) comes to the same conclusion in his studies concerning the
national level. He determines productivity and innovativeness to be the essential sources of
competitiveness regardless of the assessed geographical entity.
Harmaakorpi(2003), strongly suggests that using the regional level is reasonable in
assessing economic success and questions related to economic development policy. Regional
success is based on the region’s ability to create new paths based on its assets under the rules
of the new techno-economic paradigm. The paths can be very different in nature and no
patent regional recipes can be given. These features being abstract make it hard to measure
them statistically in many cases. However, some resources needed that set the foundation for
regional wellbeing can be embodied in statistical analysis.
233
4. Conclusions
For the sustainability of regional development, it must be accepted by local-regional
authorities and dynamics. The success of sustainable development implementations depends
on collective supports of regional actors and dynamics. The latest studies in sustainable
regional development area underline this point and take the subject in this perspective.
Janschitz(2010) brings a very different and exciting perspective to the subject. The
implementation of “the logics of sustainability” is possible for different regional development
strands in research, like learning regions, creative milieus, and transdisciplinary case studies
as well as best practice case oriented concepts.
If NLP method can be very successful at personal development, why not be at regional
development?
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Uygulamaları, Türkiye Kalkınma Bankası A.Ş., Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar
Müdürlüğü, Ankara
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and Trademarks: Evidence From Portuguese Regional Innovation Systems, Paper presented
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Harmaakorpi, V., Kauranen, I. and Haikonen, A.(2003), The Shift in the Techno-socioeconomic Paradigm and Regional Competitiveness, The 43rd Congress of European Regional
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234
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235
Business Intelligence Systems in BiH
Ozlen Kursad, Peskic Belma,Dedovic Aida,
E –mails: [email protected]
Abstract
Organizations today are in a great need in using some tools to sustain their existence. BI
systems are used to facilitate all the important organizational processes and changes through
the organizations in order to achieve their overall goals.
Purpose: This paper illustrates the usage of BI systems within a vast variety of organizations
in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The special attention was paid on measuring the role of BI
analytics and tools which represent key components of BI system.
Methodology: The review of literature from 2005 till today served as a basis for developing
the survey. The survey was conducted and the results were descriptively analysed.
Findings: Results show that BI systems are not well-known among employers and
employees, so their usage is on the low level within companies in B&H.
Keywords: BI system, BI analytics and tools, B&H
1.INTRODUCTION
In today’s business worlds with planning, organizing, and processing activities and full of
information, there has been a need for emerging systems which permit legally gathered and
publically available data for extraction and analysis into ‘business intelligence analytics’, in
order to provide support for management in better decision-making, the process which aims
towards moving from status-quo, improving business processes, and cost and time saving.
These systems are called Business Intelligence (BI) systems, and they are developed with an
aim to stop illegal reporting activities within the economy. The BI systems can be
implemented within any company, which is eager to use 100% of the all data available in the
market, but needs to be extracted and analyzed for talented and eager decision makers to use
and it and therefore achieve benefits.
The goal of this paper is to present the usage of BI systems and its key components by
emphasizing on the companies and organizations in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), where
236
there are restricted resources, high environmental uncertainty, decomposition of the value
chain, the customers who are hard to retain, and aggressive international competitors.
Furthermore, this paper will illustrate in which degree companies manage knowledge through
the usage and implementation of BI tools.
1.1.Literature Review
Stated simply, the main tasks of a BI system include “intelligent exploration, integration,
aggregation and multidimensional analysis of data originating from various information
resources”. Implicit in this definition, data is treated as a highly valuable corporate resource,
and transformed from quantity to quality. As a result, massive data from many different
sources of a large enterprise can be integrated into a coherent body to provide ‘360 degrees’
view of its business (Yeoh and Koronios, 2010). Hence, meaningful information can be
delivered at the right time, at the right location, and in the right form to assist individuals,
departments, divisions or even larger units to facilitate improved decision making (Yeoh and
Koronios, 2010). BI model is connected with database and all other external data gathered
from different sources, in order to provide historical, current, and future views of business
operations. The BI system is a cycling activity (Figure 1) including planning and managing,
collection and division of the tasks, data processing and making business intelligence
analytics, and therefore the distribution of the final information.
Figure 1 BI cycle
The managerial view of business intelligence (BI) is about the presentation of the right
information to the right people at the right time to facilitate their decision making capabilities
and to ultimately improve enterprise performance. The technical view of BI usually centers
on the process of, or applications and technologies for, gathering, storing, analyzing and
providing access to data to improve business decisions (Bose, 2009). These enable the
organizations to integrate databases in data warehouses, which represent the core of a welldeveloped BI system.
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Typical BI technologies include business rule modeling, data profiling, data warehousing,
online analytical processing, and data mining (DM). The central theme of BI is to fully utilize
massive data to help organizations gain competitive advantages (Wang & Wang, 2008). On
the other hand, linking it with knowledge management (KM) which represents a set of
practices of the creation, development, and application of knowledge to enhance
organizational performance (Wang & Wang, 2008), BI and KM improve information usage
within the organization. KM and BI, while differing, need to be considered together as
necessarily integrated and mutually critical components in the management of intellectual
capital (Herschel & Jones, 2005). But BI relies on traditional tools of well-organized data
while KM importance lies in its five (The Concours group, 2007) categories: management,
culture, structure positions and responsibilities, IT, and metrics. Both of them should be
integrated to promote organizational learning and effective decision making.
Competitive pressures have dramatically changed the business landscape, forcing
organizations to rethink their decision making and operation styles (CSC, 2008). Today, in
the same time it is hard to have and sustain a competitive advantage, keep your shareholders
aligned with your goals, find a new ways to perform the company business, and have a strong
financial performance. The only option for organizations is to do more with a less, and to
manage that by implementing BI systems, to enhance decision-making capabilities and
shareholders’ value.
Underlying most management decisions are assumed relationships and patterns such as: large
customers are more profitable than small customers; “deluxe” products are more profitable
than “standard” offerings; training will improve quality or safety; etc. Today, it is assumed
that employee learning and growth improve internal process efficiency and effectiveness and
therefore customer satisfaction leading to better shareholder returns. DM and statistical
analysis techniques are the vehicles for understanding these “cause and effect” relationships
(CSC, 2008). The usage of tools such as Balanced Scorecard, the strategic performance
management tool, and technologies such as DM and statistical analysis help managers to
develop frameworks from simple analyses to complex internal processes, e.g. from analyses
of customer behavior to product development, maintenance, quality, and etc.
Today, Business analytics is a simple idea with complex ramifications to leverage the
collected wealth of data to create new powerful ways to perform and compete. Business
analytics is the new frontier of management science and practice (The Concours group,
2007). BI analytics are used mostly for knowledge discovery, leveraging information and
business data, driving business decisions, improving performance and for innovation. The
organizations will excel it where they want to compete and have full strength.
The quality of organizational innovative services and company products don’t matter.
Instead, the capability of an adequate planning structure in place to achieve full performance
is important. By allowing enterprises to allocate their most precious (and finite) resources
(money and people) in response to changing conditions and objectives, today’s enterprise
planning solutions facilitate a dynamic planning process that both promotes best business
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practices and generates new ones. These solutions provide enterprise planning tools for the
organizations to maximize their resources and manage their business strategies (ORACLE,
2008). All these demonstrate that without planning tools management would not be able to
predict future organizational performance changes. Through the use of planning tools,
managerial and organizational decisions can be performed better on every level by focusing
on analysis of information in order to capitalize on business opportunities, optimize
resources, and link goals with operational plans.
Nowadays, with available technologic capability, corporations can address many of their
most complex business problems and competitiveness (The Concours group, 2007).
Competing on analytics entails analytics through the organization and makes analytics and
fact-based decisions key elements of corporate business strategy. Analytics has to be
translated into day-to-day action, and putting analytics into meaningful action requires both
vision and execution (Davenport, 2007). The technology is in a huge progress and
competitors are always exploring the new ways to analytically compete and gain greater
business capability to enhance organizational performance, and become more successful in
financial and technological terms. The executives and employees are willing to adapt changes
and start analytics as quickly as possible. They can realize the payoffs, as analytical
competitors, and then they become leaders in their industries in any possible term.
Many corporations compete on the basis of their ability to initiate, expand, and maintain
relationships with customers. Indeed, customer relationship management is a high potential
domain for business analytics, especially the techniques of predictive modeling (The
Concours group, 2007). The aim of data analysis is to know more about company’s
customers, in order to best serve them. The organizations are measuring and managing
customer relationship through valuation, ‘targeting’, retention or customization. All these
improve the optimization of customer relationship.
Most companies today have sufficient amounts of data, but lack of their integration and
quality. Without qualified data, the needed analytical analysis cannot be created (The
Concours group, 2007). The companies must have high quality technologies to support BI
analytics through which data can be manipulated, because business takes an action based on
its analyses.
The nature of the top benefits and challenges make it clear that today’s technology purchasers
demand comprehensive and integrated BI and performance management solutions to be able
to overcome challenges related to data integration from multiple sources and data quality
(AS, 2007).
2. Research Methodology
As a result of literature review, the identified variables are formed as follows: (1) BIA
(Business Intelligence Analytics), (2) Management Planning Tools, (3) Organisational
competitiveness, (4) Technology, (5) CRM (Customer Relationship Management, and (6)
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Competitor’s Analytics. Each group includes four statements. To measure the identified
statements, a 5-point Likert scale survey was improved and conducted to be able to identify
whether organizations in Bosnia and Herzegovina use BI systems, and if so do they manage
by using those tools to reach their maximum.
2.1.The Sample Space
The participants were kindly asked to fill the demographics information part and to answer
the questions in the survey to be able to observe the real situation in their company.
The survey was conducted in person, particularly with each person, and online. On average it
took 10 minutes per person to read, think, and give the proper answer.
The importance of this survey lies in the results that will illustrate the real image of
companies in B&H, which are technology-oriented in their industries with emphasis on
innovation, and that the studies related to this topic were not conducted before in B&H.
2.2.Demographics
The survey was completed by 165 respondents. The respondents are from 73 different
private, public and governmental organizations. One third of the respondents were females
(Table 1).
Table 1 Gender of the respondents
The mean age of the respondents is 40.15, which means there is an experienced sample
(Table 2).
Table 2 Age
The positions of the respondents are varying (Table 3). It may be important to note that the
majority of the respondents are managers (managers and academic administrators). Academic
personnel and officers follow them by 18,8% and 17,6%.
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Table 3 Respondent positions
The survey was conducted in various types of organizations. Table the sample is represented
by the respondents from Limited Companies (Ltd.) (46.7%) (77 respondents), followed by
Academic Institutions (27.3%), where 45 persons were questioned. Governmental
organisations are represented by 23 respondents (17.6%). Furthermore, from banking and
finance there were 12 respondents (7.3%).
Table 4 Type of Organisations
2.3.Descriptive Statistics
The results about BIA section provide a fair support for the statements (Table 5).
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Table 5 BIA agreement level of respondents
According to Table 6, the managements of organizations are using very little tools to
facilitate their planning, and there is a lack of management support on analytical functions.
Table 6 Management Planning Tools agreement level of respondents
The respondents slightly agreed about their organizations being competitive (Table 7).
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Table 7 Organisational Competitiveness agreement level of respondents
The companies are observed to be using fairly good technologies (Table 8).
Table 8 Technology agreement level of respondents
The organizations are giving slight importance to the relationships (Table 9). Especially, they
have very fair capabilities to detect consumer behavior.
Table 9 CRM agreement level of respondents
According to Table 10, the respondents are neutral on the statement that their competitors are
using some BI tools, but they don’t consider that their competitors’ analytical capabilities
243
were in a challenging level. Therefore, they do not think that their company’s performance
can be influenced by the competitors’ technologies.
Table 10 Competitor Analytics agreement level of respondents
In table 11, it can be seen that the respondents slightly agreed that their competitors jump
ahead with analytical capabilities.
Table 11 All sections agreement level of respondents
3.Discussion
The studies and findings show that B&H companies do not use business analytics for
knowledge discovery. Furthermore, their management does not realize the importance of BI
analytics which are used to drive business decisions, to improve organizational performance
and to create innovative structures.
It is not sure if organizations use management planning tools to predict future changes, and to
make better decisions on every level. Furthermore, the executive of analytical function in
management position is not the one that is the closest to business processes, and competitive
optimization according to the results of the survey.
The companies do not choose to compete on the basis of organizational competitiveness,
even if it represents a way to keep organizations viable and successful. The certainty lies in
that the management of company and the shareholders are aligned with company’s goals.
Most companies use sufficiently integrated technology with the aim to measure business
performance, but they do not have the technologies in place to support business intelligence
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analytics in the area of business management. The improvement in company performances
cannot be seen in terms of technology, and in the same manner they do not use qualified data
to be manipulated through existing technologies.
The Customer Relationship Management of the companies is able to initiate, expand, and
maintain relationship with their customers. Some of the companies, even in a small portion,
manage customer relationship through the “targeting” that may lead them to significant
revenue growth, and others are using “valuation” to manage the asset value of their customer
relationship. Throughout this survey, it is revealed that many organizations do not use early
warning systems to detect changes in customer’s behavior that indicates service or retention
issue, even if this could help them to try to retain their customers.
The conclusion led to discovery of the effects that the choices of competitor's analytical tools
on the company performance in the market may have, and in that way may give them
powerful means to be successful in financial terms. The results indicate that respondents do
not have qualified information to estimate whether their competitors use analytics to evaluate
their efforts in terms of improvement of business objectives.
4.CONCLUSION
The final conclusion is that there is a growth in BI market requiring from organizations in
B&H to be furnished with BI systems that will give their management support in better
decision-making aiming towards improvement and innovation, and in the same time enabling
them allocation of resources, better composition of value chain, lower degree of
environmental uncertainty, and most of all fair competition with international companies.
Regarding the directions for future studies, it can be underlined that any kind of study is
welcomed in this field. There is no enough information regarding it and very few studies to
have the BI picture in B&H.
REFERENCES
AS. (2007). Implementation of Business Intelligence and Performance Management Tools
and Solutions. SAS
Bose, R. (2009). Advanced analytics: opportunities and challenges, Industrial Management
and Data Systems. Emerald Group Publishing Limited
CSC.
(2008).
Retrieved
November
http://assets1.csc.com/management_consulting
245
21,
2011
from
www.csc.com:
Davenport, T. (2007). Competing on analytics, The new science of winning. Conference
Report, Harvard Business School Publishing
Herschel, R., & Jones, N., (2005). Knowledge management and business intelligence:
importance of integration, Journal of knowledge management
ORACLE. (2008). Gaining Competitive Advantage through Enterprise Planning Retrieved
November 21, 2011 from www.oracle.com
The Concours group. (2007). Business Analytics: Six questions to ask about information and
competition. Boardroom imperative
Wang, H., & Wang, S. (2008). A knowledge management approach to data mining process
for business intelligence. Industrial Management and Data Systems
Yeoh, W., & Koronios, A. (2010). Critical success factors for Business Intelligence Systems.
Journal of Computer Information Systems
Km Applications In Bosnian Managerial Practices
Ozlen Kursad, Mahmutović Zehra, Mekić Ensar, Herić Emina
E –mails: [email protected]
Abstract
Knowledge Management has emerged globally to facilitate sustainability of the organizations
as a result of competitive environment. Organizational learning not only asserts and promotes
organizational outcome and improved performance, but also plays a significant role in
achieving innovation and overall satisfaction through internalization; staff engagement, staff
motivation and empowerment, leadership and configuration.
This paper focuses primarily on its application within Bosnian managerial practices. The
main purpose of this paper is to investigate the presence of Knowledge Management within
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Bosnian managerial practices, its intensity, influences on organizational strategy, and benefits
as well as outcomes coming from it.
As a result of literature review, a 7-point Likert scale survey was developed and the survey
was distributed to the companies by emailing, otherwise companies were visited directly. The
companies vary from private to public, in different areas of business performance. The
respondents have different positions through bottom to the top management.
The data gathered were examined descriptively and the results are discussed accordingly.
Keywords: knowledge management, strategy, decision making, motivation, benefits
1.INTRODUCTION
Over the years, knowledge management research, its implications and benefits have achieved
great popularity. So far, in the twenty- first century knowledge is widely recognized as the
most important single factor in creating and sustaining more effective organizational
performance (Li Hua, 2010). What is evident in this approach is that the effective creation of
knowledge depends upon knowledge transfer, knowledge sharing and organizational
learning. Many organizations nowadays are approaching knowledge as a primary source of
their success, employee engagement and satisfaction. On the other hand, there are many of
others which are refusing to import knowledge based plans into their overall strategy, and in
that way are becoming reluctant to change.
Modern organizations make knowledge management (KM) an explicit part of their strategy in
order to utilize the knowledge and experiences of individuals within the organization. The
underlying assumption for KM in an enterprise context is that the enterprise’s productive
function consists of work to transform organizational knowledge into outcomes in order to
obtain organizational benefits (Burstein and Linger et. al 2003). From this perspective, KM is
a part of organizational value chain and presumed to have a positive impact on the
organization.
This paper will examine knowledge management application in local community of Bosnian
managers. Since Bosnia and Herzegovina is relatively small country with a struggling
economy and in many political disputes over years already, we are willing to see how
Bosnian white and blue collar employees perceive knowledge management, whether they
apply it in their strategy, how open they are to implement this approach in order to improve
the overall quality and efficiency of their businesses.
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1.1.Literature Review
A review of the knowledge management literature was conducted using standard electronic
databases. The literature review has been focused on 15 articles which are considered to be
representatives of the most relevant literature for the study (Table 1). However, besides those
articles, there was instant usage of KM book (Handžić & Zhou, 2003).
Table 1 Summary of relevant articles
Furthermore, a number of relevant case and theoretical studies from Europe, America and
Asia are documented. Frize et. al (2005) describe a KM framework for ethical decision
making support. Their article is based on creating value in health-care organizations through
KM applications. In their article, authors state that “While relatively little attention has been
paid to the use of knowledge management for ethical decision support, a few comparable
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decision tools have been under development for the NICU environment”. Mills and Smith
(2010) approached KM from more organizational perspective. They said that “For many
organizations achieving improved performance is not only dependent on the successful
deployment of tangible assets and natural resources but also on the effective management of
knowledge. As such, investments in knowledge management continue to increase
dramatically from year to year”. Rouse (2002) Conley and Zheng (2009) as well as Coakes et
al (2009) more specifically approached KM implications in terms of decision making,
organizational success and improvement.
2.Research methodology
2.1.Variables
Identified research variables as a result of literature review are shown in Table 2. The survey
questions have been developed according to the variables.
Table 2 List of variables
1. Knowledge enablers refer to the organization environment and communication technology
within the organization.
2. Technology facilitates KM processes through the organisation.
3. Motivation. Each organization within its overall strategy considers one part related to
motivating its employees to obtain best work results. In relation to that certain incentives,
rewards or benefits can be provided in order to make difference between peak and weak
performers. Knowledge management does not fall anywhere behind requiring certain
motivation maintenance in order to stay present in the company. Related to that our interest
was to determine if organization is applying knowledge management in its strategy, how
much of interest is showing, or more precisely what efforts are allocated to maintain it
through high motivation of employees, and stuff.
4. KM Assets. Every enterprise should first of all realize how important it is to "know what
they know" and be able to make maximum use of the knowledge. They need to know what
their KM assets are, and how to manage and make use of these assets to get maximum return.
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Most traditional company policies and controls focus on the tangible assets of the company
and leave unmanaged their important knowledge assets. But the fact is that KM assets in
business environments are quite more important than tangible assets including financial
assets and etc., because they represent a useful mechanism for gaining the competitive
advantage.
5. KM Adoption. To succeed in organisational KM strategy and to meet the business
objectives of the implementation, it is imperative to ensure adoption of the system within the
user base. The focus of the implementation should be on increasing and maintaining the
usage of the system in terms of number of users participating, increasing the number of
transactions on the system and improving the quality of the transactions. There are a lot of
challenges faced through the adoption of KM, so the current research considered the variable
regarding the adoption of KM.
Benefits: There can be populated a long list of benefits which KM and its adoption within the
organization provide. In this study, benefits from KM have been categorized as personal
benefits and organizational benefits.
6. Personal Benefits. When all the people in an organization understand what they already
know, what they need to know and what they don't yet know about something for their tasks,
then people can collaborate better to reach their goals. Individuals will get more
accomplished because of the knowledge shared within a group, and groups can collaborate
better because they have a common goal and a clear starting point. The benefits of
knowledge management can take a company struggling with the information processing
cycle and productivity and therefore make it a much more efficient and success-oriented
workplace.
7. Organisational Benefits. Benefits on the organizational level include overall inclined
productivity and output, better innovation and implementation of new ideas and better
customer service.
2.2.Sample Space
The survey was conducted on several private and public organizations in different industries
per see. Banks are not put into the basket, since they are the branches of the banks from
abroad. Mainly high rank employees in organizational chart such as supervisors, presidents of
board committee, auditors and CEOs were targeted. On the other hand, the other level
employees were also surveyed.
The surveys were distributed by e-mailing several companies and asking whether they found
the survey appropriate to fill out. A response rate of 76% (152/200) was achieved from
distributed surveys.
One experienced difficulty is that the awareness of KM in general. Hence brief explanations
about KM, its pros and cons are given to the respondents. Another challenge was that lack of
250
trust towards this kind of surveys which require giving certain internal information about
company (even though that they are not from financial nature). Furthermore, the survey was
distributed both on English and Bosnian language respectively.
Findings
2.3.Demographics
Demographics part includes respondent’s gender, their positions within the department, and
their education levels. Respondents were half from males and half from females (Figure 1).
Figure 1 Gender of the Respondents
The education levels of the respondents are found out to be extremely high. There are only
three high school graduates. Almost one third has master degrees and twelve have PHD
degrees.
Table 3 Education Levels of the Respondents
The positions of the respondents were grouped according to their similar characteristics.
While grouping them, ILO standards have been considered (Budlender, 2003). Nearly half of
the respondents have managerial roles within the organisations. There are 47 lecturers who
are working in two private international universities in BiH.
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Table 4 Positions of the Respondents
The surveyed respondents are asked to state the current KM implementation phase in their
organisations. They could choose more than one option among the given alternatives.
According to the results, 30 organisations are detected to have no KM strategy. 58
organisations have developed KM strategies but they did not or couldn’t start the strategies.
On the other hand, almost one third (49) of the respondents stated that their organisations
have started to implement their KM strategies. 32 of them commented that knowledge share
can be successfully employed in their departments within the organisations. Additionally, 27
of them believe that KM practices have become a part of their organization’s corporate
culture. Furthermore, 35 respondents think that the organisational internal environment is
suitable for KM to emerge. However, 24 of them don’t think that it is not valid for their
external environment.
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Figure 2 KM Implementation Phases of the Surveyed Companies
According to Table 5, it can be identified that the environment for knowledge sharing is
slightly suitable. Therefore, there is a very little amount of knowledge share.
Table 5 KM Enablers
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As observed from Table 6, the companies are investing slightly on technology. So, the
organisations have weak technologies to support KM activities through the organisation.
Table 6 Technology
Motivational issues seem to be extremely weak through the organizations to implement KM
(Table 7).
Table 7 Motivation
When the assets for KM is considered, the organizations are identified that they do not give
importance to KM assets (people, organizational capital, customer relationship, etc.) and
therefore they don’t have satisfactory level of KM embodied with the organization (Table 8).
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Table 8 KM Assets
As observed from Table 9, the organizations have slightly adopted KM processes.
Table 9 KM Adoption
The respondents slightly feel that they get benefit from KM applications. On the other hand,
they seem to adopt and as a result of this adoption they seem happy with the benefits (Table
10).
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Table 10 Personal Benefits
The respondents are less optimistic about organizational benefits compared to personal
benefits. But they are still slightly agreed that KM applications are beneficial for the
organizations (Table 11).
Table 11 Organizational Benefits
3.Discussion
The overall variables are shown in Table 12. The results suggested a slight agreement in
general. It can be understood from the results that KM issue in BiH is in its early phases.
Therefore, it needs more attention to develop KM implementation strategies. First of all, a
knowledge enabling environment within and outside the organisations should be developed.
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Technology tools to facilitate KM processes can be used more. On the other hand, the
motivation to implement KM is very weak. So it needs more attention. Otherwise it may be
difficult to adopt KM solutions. Furthermore, the results implied that the organisations should
enrich their knowledge assets. Finally, if all the conditions are satisfied, it is clear that both
the organisations and the individuals will increase their benefits.
Table 12 Overall Variables
4.CONCLUSION
In practice, the knowledge management function has been improved by the internet and
information technology within and outside the organization (Barney, 1991; Davenport and
Prusak, 1998). Therefore, it has become essential to coordinate different information coming
from different parts of the world and knowledge workers (Amar, 2002; Coakes et. al, 2009).
The current study realized that in order to perform KM effectively, organizations have to
learn how to manage KM as a function rather than as a technical skill. The first step in this
process is to devise a management strategy for carrying out KM and if the strategy is wellunderstood so that everyone in the organization can seek guidance from it pertaining to the
various aspects of management, such as the social and cultural. It is taken for granted here
that a system incorporates both social and technical elements.
In a nutshell, it can be understood that KM in Bosnia and Herzegovina is emerging yet.
Future research may evaluate the value of each type of knowledge exchange and thus
demonstrate the best composition of a successful knowledge management strategy for
different organizations according to the social, cultural, economic and political composition
and placement.
5.Directions for Future Research
The interest of Knowledge management research is expected to substantially increase. In the
current study, the concentration was on the Knowledge management application in BiH
managerial practices. The results have provided useful information considering the awareness
about the importance of KM in BH companies and to which extent Knowledge management
is implied. This study points to several key areas that require further analysis. For example,
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subsequent research might involve conducting a longitudinal study of organizational culture
and knowledge transfer, providing a more empirical causal link between these two
constructs. Along these same lines, a longitudinal case study might involve actual
manipulation of organizational knowledge. Another potential research may attempt to find
out the strategies to maximize knowledge management practices in BiH. Also there could be
conducted researches which would more deeply explain the connection between Knowledge
management practices with the other organizational key parts.
REFERENCES
Barbosa, J. G. P., Gonçalves, A. A., Simonetti, V. and Leitão, A. R. (2009). A Proposed
Architecture for Implementing a Knowledge Management System in the Brazilian National
Cancer Institute. BAR, Curitiba, 6(3), art. 5, p. 247-262
Budlender, D. (2003). Improving occupational classifications as tools for describing labour
markets: A summary of recent national experiences. Retrieved October 23, 2011, from
www.ilo.org:
http://www.ilo.org/integration/resources/papers/WCMS_081752/lang/en/index.htm
Burstein, F. and Linger, H. (2003). Supporting post-Fordist work practices: A knowledge
management framework for supporting knowledge work. Information Technology & People,
16(3), pp.289 – 305
Chen, S.C., Yang, C.C., Lin, W.T., Yeh, T.M., and Lin, Y.S. (2007). Construction of key
model for knowledge management system using AHP-QFD for semiconductor industry in
Taiwan. Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, 18(5), pp.576 – 597
Coakes, E., Amar, A.D. and Granados, M. L. (2010). Knowledge management, strategy, and
technology: a global snapshot. Journal of Enterprise Information Management, 23(3), pp.282
– 304
Conley, C. A. and Wei, Z. (2009). Factors critical to knowledge management success.
Advances in Developing Human Resources, 11(3): 334-348.
Corrao, S., Arcoraci, V., Arnone, S., Calvo, L., Scaglione, R., Di Bernardo, C., Lagalla, R.,
Caputi, A. P. and Licata, G. (2009). Evidence-Based Knowledge Management: an approach
to effectively promote good health-care decision-making in the Information Era. Internal and
Emergency Medicine, 4(2), 99-106,
Driessen, S., Huijsen, W. O. and Grootveld, M. (2007). A framework for evaluating
knowledge-mapping tools. Journal of Knowledge Management, 11(2), pp.109 – 117
Frize, M., Yang, L., Walker, R. C. and O’Connor, A. M. (2005). Conceptual Framework of
Knowledge Management for Ethical Decision-Making Support in Neonatal Intensive Care.
Information Technology in Biomedicine, 9 (2), pp. 205 - 215
258
Gasson, S. and Shelfer, K. M. (2007). IT-based knowledge management to support
organizational learning: Visa application screening at the INS. Information Technology &
People, 20(4), pp.376 - 399
Handzic, M., & Zhou, A. Z. (2005). Knowledge Management: An Integrative Approach,
Chandos Publishing, Oxford, UK.
Meso, P., Troutt, M. D. and Rudnicka, J. (2002). A review of naturalistic decision making
research with some implications for knowledge management. Journal of Knowledge
Management, 6(1), pp.63 – 73
Mills, A.M. and Smith, T.A. (2011). Knowledge management and organizational
performance: a decomposed view. Journal of Knowledge Management, 15(1), pp. 156-171.
Rizzi, C., Ponte, D. and Bonifacio, M. (2009). A new institutional reading of knowledge
management technology adoption. Journal of Knowledge Management, 13(4), pp.75 – 85
E-commerce in Bosnia &Herzegovina
Ozlen Serife, Obralic Merdzana, Cickusic Emir, Ejupi Dzenis, Dzaferovic Emir
E –mails: [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
With the rising of e-commerce in the past few years, distinct buying patterns and preferences
have emerged for specific groups and other demographics.
Since e-commerce is still a relatively new phenomenon in B&H, our goal was to collect
enough information and measure those patterns in order to understand how consumers
connect with the new technology. This paper lays the foundation with brief introduction to
definition of e-commerce, followed by history timeline of e-commerce evolution and some
important trends and factors which are generally known to have influence on people’s
attitude toward online shopping. This is then followed by their general perceptions and
preferences of online shopping including product and payment option selection.
Each of these e-commerce “generalities” is compared to the information achieved as a result
of collected surveys whose respondents are from different regions of Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Furthermore, it will also investigate the favorable as well as negative website characteristics
259
and sum up the positive elements into a description of an e-commerce website that would be
suitable to the group being most present as an online buyer.
Keywords: E-commerce, online shopping, E-business
1.INTRODUCTION
A single physical marketplace used to be positioned in a geographical region has transformed
into a borderless marketplace including national and international markets. Through
empowering e-commerce, businesses can now reach people all around the world.
Consequentially, all e-commerce businesses have become virtual multinational corporations.
Electronic commerce or e-commerce can be defined as an extensive range of online business
activities in order to provide products and services. E-commerce is usually associated with
buying and selling over the Internet, or conducting any transaction involving the transfer of
ownership or rights to use goods or services through a computer-mediated network instead of
physical exchanges or direct physical contact (Thomas, 1999).
Though popular, this definition is not inclusive enough to describe contemporary
developments in this new and radical business phenomenon. A more complete definition can
be given as: “E-commerce is the use of electronic communications and digital information
processing technology in business transactions to create, transform, and redefine relationships
for value creation between or among organizations, and between organizations and
individuals” (Andam, 2003).
1.1.Literature review
Bosnia and Herzegovina may be a synonymous with the Yugoslav wars that was destroyed in
the Balkan region in the 1990s. The country is still struggling with the legacy of this, having
a fractured infrastructure and a countryside that remains littered with mines in some regions.
Bosnia and Herzegovina was before one of the six federal units of the Socialist Federal
Republic of Yugoslavia, gained its independence during the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s.
Bosnia and Herzegovina can be described as a federal democratic republic that is
transforming its economy into a market-oriented system, and it is a potential candidate for the
European Union and NATO membership. Additionally, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been a
member of the Council of Europe since April 24, 2002 and a founding member of the
Mediterranean Union despite its establishment on July 13, 2008 (Imamović, 2008) .
260
1.2.History of E-commerce
The predecessor of Electronic Commerce (e-Commerce) was Electronic Data Interchange
(EDI). EDI was first introduced in the 1960's and consisted of a set of rules enhancing large
businesses to conduct a method of electronic transaction and to exchange useful information.
In 1990, Tim Berners-Lee developed the first web browser, Worldwide Web, using a NeXT
computer. The next fundamental step was the introduction of Mosaic web-browser was
further named as Netscape in 1992. This was a huge step in the evolution of e-Commerce
(Kaushik, 2010).
In 1992, J.H. Snider and Terra Ziporyn published the book “Future Shop: How New
Technologies Will Change the Way We Shop and What We Buy” which discuss the reasons
of spending huge amount of money on consumer information. The book also identified why
people believe this situation can and will change if they can only continue to build an
information infrastructure which revolutionizes the economics of providing consumer
information (Snider & Ziporyn, 1992).
When Future Shop was written, online sales were represented less than .01% of retail sales
and the World Wide Web hadn’t even been invented. A significant number of businesses all
over the world have developed their web sites. In the dot com period, electronic commerce
has included activities which are called "Web commerce" or the purchase of goods and
services over the World Wide Web through secure connections with e-shopping carts and
with electronic payment services such as credit card payment authorizations (Dunhill, 2008).
Finally, Solorzano (2011) reported that US ecommerce and Online Retail sales projected to
reach $197 billion, an increase of 12 percent over 2010.
1.3.Weaknesses of online shopping
Waiting for the pages to load is one may be sometimes slower than standing in line on the
phone or driving to the store. This happens due to poor web design of the page, bad hosting
providers and other technical difficulties. It’s not often, but it’s something that prevents a lot
of people from buying online. Another reason is insufficient, incomprehensible, or just plain
wrong information for making a buying decision. And one of the main reasons is that people
feel insecure and are not confident typing in their credit card number on a website, in fear
somebody might steal it and commit some kind of forgery (Tognazzini, 2004).
1.4.E-commerce is taking off
Despite the mentioned weaknesses, consumers through the world are increasingly changing
crowded stores for one-click convenience, as online shopping becomes increasingly safe and
popular alternative. According to a global survey by The Nielsen Company More than 85
percent of online population in the world has used the Internet to make a purchase and more
261
than a half of Internet users are regular online buyers, making online purchases at least once a
month (Niesel, 2007).
1.5.Main reasons for utilizing online shopping
According to Nielsen Online survey, being able to shop 24 hours a day was identified to be
one of the main factors. The next factor is saving time. Also 65% said that they shop online in
order to avoid the crowds and waiting in offline local stores. According to 59%, it saves gas
for not having to use car to drive to local stores. 55% buy online because they are regularly
searching for bargains and discounts which are often offered by online stores. 53% buy
online because of lower prices for products. And 37% do so because ordered items are always
in stock (Nielsen, 2008).
1.6.What do people buy online?
Many internet users (65%) have paid to download or access some kind of online content from
the internet including music, software, and apps as the most popular contents. For the
methods of online content access, the majority of the internet users pay for subscription
services (23%), versus downloading an individual file (16%), or accessing streaming content
(8%) (Jansen, 2010).
1.7.The impact of E-commerce
The marketplace has been transformed by Electronic commerce by changing the way of
business such as developing new products and markets, replacing traditional in-between
functions, creating new and much closer relationships between businesses and consumers,
and transforming the organization of work. The consequences may be the requirement for
more flexibility and adaptability, new channels of knowledge circulation and human
interactivity in the workplace, and redefinition of worker functions and skills (Wyckoff &
Colecchia, 1999).
1.8.Mobile trend involved in E-commerce (m-commerce)
There are over 3 billion mobile phones worldwide meaning that over 40% of the world’s
population, far more than those who use a computer or have access to the internet. In many
developed countries, mobile phone penetration is above 90% and developing countries are
catching up fast. Closer and more personalized relationships between businesses and
consumers are possible via mobile phones. Existing business issues (such as inefficient
couponing) can be resolved by effectively using mobile technology. These improvements that
could be implemented using mobile devices for e-commerce show how much potential there
262
is, and that’s why m-commerce is one of the biggest rising trends in recent years, and it will
continue to be so in years to come (GS1 Mobile, 2008).
2.Research Methodology
Due to timeliness, low cost and convenience factors, survey-based research method was
preferred in this study in order to collect enough information and measure the patterns in
order to understand how consumers connect with the new technology.
The survey questions were set to find out general information about participants; on the net,
how important are the factors such as the photo or graphic of the item that was presented, the
price, the explanation of the item and its features, which influence their decision to purchase
items and etc.
All questionnaire items used to measure these constructs were adapted from prior studies and
had proven validity and reliability. The questionnaire consisted of a mixture of closed and
open-ended questions. Seven open-ended questions were used to acquire basic demographic
information (age, sex, position, education level) and additional textual comments on any
aspects of interest. The survey was designed to allow anonymity so that the subjects could
freely express their thoughts and feelings.
Subjects for this study were people from different parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina. A total of
350 people participated in the current study. Surveys were reserved for 300 Bosnian people,
done in Bosnian language, and 50 for other nationalities, done in English. It took between 10
and 15 minutes to answer all survey questions. Then, the participants’ responses were
collected, encoded, entered into the computer file and analyzed using Microsoft Excel
spreadsheet program. The results of the analyses performed are presented in the following
section.
3. Results and findings
Out of all people (350) who participated in this survey, 110 said they have bought online at
least once. As opposed to the other 240 people who said they have never used websites to
order products, or to sell them. Therefore 31% of people surveyed have bought online at least
once (Figure 1).
Figure 1
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Out of total 350 survey respondents, 195 were male. Out of those 195 male, there were 75 of
them who said they bought online at least once. As opposed to 120 who said they have never
used online sites in such manner. 38% of surveyed males bought online at least once (Figure
2).
Figure 2
Out of all 350 respondents, 155 were females. Out of those 155 females, 34 of them said they
have bought online at least once. Whereas the other 121 said they have never utilized online
shopping (Figure 3).
Figure 3
We also found what the items that are most often bought are. And we saw that they differ
when it comes to males (Figure 4 and 5).
Figure 4 and 5
264
As it can be seen above, the items that males usually tend to buy, in order of the biggest to the
smallest quantity are books, software, clothing, travel (airline tickets, hotel reservations),
computer hardware and then others were approximately evenly distributed.
Whereas females tend to buy mainly clothing items online, with some responses of books and
magazines, as well as travel (airline tickets and hotel reservations).
Correlation between age and percent of people who buy online
As we observed from the sample of respondents, there was really strong correlation between
age of a person, and whether that person is likely to buy online or not (Figure 6).
Figure 6
People in earlier years (19 – 23), were the biggest portion of those who said they bought
online at least once. Correlation of this group age related to their likeliness to buy online is
very strongly positive (0.937).
Those who had 24 years or more are less likely to be online customers as shown by the
survey. The negative correlation is as strong as -0.99253 (Figure 7).
Figure 7
265
Do people search for a specific item online, or they buy what they come across? We asked
the respondents who bought online at least once, whether they were specifically searching for
an item they intended to buy, or they came across it on some of the online stores or through
other website ads.
Out of total 110 people who said they bought online at least once, 34 of them said they have
specifically searched for an item (31%), as opposed to the other 76 who have said they came
across it and liked it, so they bought it (69%) (Figure 8).
Figure 8
How important is the look of photo or graphic of the item that is being sold? We asked
respondents to rate with 1 to 5 on how they feel about given factors that influence their
decision to buy. Their ratings were then summed up and we’ve got the following results,
from highest to lowest.Price, the photo or graphic of the item that was presented, the “ease”
of finding the specific item, the explanation of the item and its features, the convenience of
shopping online, and the lowest of these was the general quality of website (Figure 9).
Figure 9
266
What do users like the most when it comes to online buying? It happens often that people
can’t make their mind about whether they should buy a specific product or not. The following
factors help people prevail into making the decision to buy. By summing up the 1-5 ratings of
each option, we found that discounts were the highest on the list of the things that people like
when it comes to online buying.
Discounts were then followed by Money-Back Guarantee option; free delivery, customer
reviews of the product offered, and the lowest one were different options of payment (Figure
10).
Figure 10
People, who buy online often, usually use PayPal. Out of those who said they buy online,
75% of those who bought four times or more said they use PayPal as a service for paying the
products they buy online, as opposed to users who bought less than 4 times online, out of
which 21% uses PayPal as a payment service (Figure 11).
Figure 11
267
What are the reasons for people who don’t buy online? Among the main reasons, as stated by
respondents, were those of fear that someone might steal their credit card number? Followed
by prices, complexity of returning items bought online, wanting to see things in person, and
the lowest was finding
the whole buying
process complicated
and
hard
to
understand.
Figure 12
Social networks do not affect customers purchasing decision. Even though social networks
are widely used in Bosnia and Herzegovina, they do not affect customers purchasing
decision.
Those who have bought online at least once, 92% of those people said that social networks
like Facebook never affect their purchasing decision, as opposed to 8% who said social
networks influence their decision sometimes or always (Figure 13).
Figure 13
268
When we talk about mobile e-commerce in Bosina and Herzegovina we got that 77% of all
respondents said that they would never use mobile devices for shopping online. Main
reasons, as stated by them, are expensive mobile internet service cost followed by security,
small screen size and unavailability of products (Figure 14).
Figure 14
4.CONCLUSION
Aim of our research was to find out what people in Bosnia & Herzegovina are thinking about
the e-commerce and what should be done in B&H to bring more customers to online shops.
Needed technologies for online shops are available in Bosnia and such shops do exist, but
customers are not used to shopping online. Our research helped us to find out what are the
reasons that are keeping customers away from shopping online and what are some of the
most important features that every online store should have in order to get as many online
customers as possible.
Mobile devices are the newest tools for doing business online but are not yet used as much in
Bosnia and Herzegovina as in other, more developed countries, mainly because of high
mobile internet service price.
E-commerce is new way of doing business in B&H, but will soon become the standard as
new generations, that are using internet more and are keen to shop online, are coming. Shops
that offer different discounts, product images and descriptions, simpler but safer paying
mechanism and variety of guarantees will get more customers, as they are requesting such
features. Younger population is more likely to shop online as they can easily buy things with
their favorite toy, computer, without the need for moving from “the warmth of home”,
therefore the products that are sold online should be the ones that are demanded by younger
customers, mainly students and younger workers. We were able to gather necessary
information, which could be useful to local companies who plan to implement E-commerce
as a part of their business in Bosnia & Herzegovina.
269
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Andam, Z. (2003). An introduction to ecommerce. E Primer.
Bausch, S. (2007). Convenience, not price, drives online holiday shopping. Retrieved from
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Buscher, V. (2009). Urban information architecture from digital to smart cities. Proceedings
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Colecchia, A., & Wyckoff, A. (1999). The economic and social impact of electronic
commerce. Paris: OECD.
Dunhill, A. (2008). Electronic commerce aka e-commerce history. Retrieved from
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Greenwood, T. (2010). Amazon.com to acquire Diapers.com and Soap.com. Retrieved from
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20101108005786/en/Amazon.com-AcquireDiapers.com-Soap.com
GS1 Mobile Com. (2008). Mobile commerce: opportunities and challenges. Retrieved from
http://www.gs1.org/docs/mobile/GS1_Mobile_Com_Whitepaper.pdf
Imamović, M., (2008). Historija Bosnjaka. Bošnjačka zajednica kulture Preporod, Matični
odbor, Sarajevo.
Jansen, J. (2010). 65% of internet users have paid for online content. Washington, D.C: Pew
Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project.
Kaushik, P. (2010). History of e-commerce. Retrieved from http://www.suite101.com/conte
nt/history -of-e-commerce-a259972
Lacy, S. (2009). Amazon buys Zappos; the price is $928m., not $847m. Retrieved from
http://techcrunch.com/2009/07/22/amazon-buys-zappos/
MSNBC, (2010). Groupon rejects $6 billion offer from Google. Retrieved from
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40499923/ns/business-us_business/t/groupon-rejects-billionoffer-google/
Snider , J.H., &Ziporyn, T. (2003). Future shop: how new technologies will change the way
we shop and what we buy. St Martins Pr.
Solorzano, R. (2011). Forecast of ecommerce sales in 2011 and beyond. Retrieved from
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Thomas, L. (1999). Measuring electronic business: definitions, underlying concepts, and
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Tognazzini, B. (2004). Top 10 reasons to not shop on line. Retrieved from
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sedetail.cfm?releaseid=84142
Appendix
E-Commerce in BiH Survey
Instructions for completing the questionnaire




Please answer all questions
For the questions with a numeric scale circle only one number for each scale
Read the specific instructions under each section where applicable
This survey is expected to be completed in 10 minutes.
E-Commerce: Buying and selling of products and services via internet. It reduces cost and time and has
potential to expand business into wider geographical locations.
I. Demographics
a.
Name of your department/unit:
b.
Your position/role:
c.
Your education level:
e.
Gender:
d.
Time in Position:
g.
City/Canton
f.
Age:
II. General Background of a Client.
1.
a)
b)
2.
Have you ever purchased a product from a company via the Internet?
Yes
No
If yes, was your purchase(s) for an item that you specifically were searching for, or was
it an item that you came across while Internet shopping and decided to buy?
a) N/A - Never purchased anything online
271
b)
c)
3.
d)
e)
f)
g)
h)
i)
4.
5.
6.
a)
b)
7.
a)
b)
c)
d)
8.
a)
b)
c)
I was specifically looking for the item.
I came across it and liked it, so I bought it.
How many times have you made online purchases?
Never
Once
2-3 times
4-6 times
7-15 times
More than 15
How do you pay for online purchases?
a) Via credit card
b) PayPal
c) Mailed a check or money order via postal service
d) Other (please state the method):
____________
What type of products have you purchased online? (Circle all that apply)
 Software
 Books or magazines
 Computer hardware
 Music, CDs, recordings
 Videos, DVDs
 Home Electronics
 Travel (airlines, car rentals, hotels)
 Clothing
 Tickets (concert, movies, etc.)
 Services (insurance, legal)
 Other items
In general, do you like the idea of online, computerized shopping?
Yes
No
If available in BiH would you prefer using mobile phones for shopping online?
Never
Sometimes
Often
Almost always
Do social networks affect your purchasing decision?
Never
Sometimes
Always
III. On the net, how important are the following factors which influence your
272
Unimportan
Very
decision to purchase items (not relating to the product, but to its presentation)?
t
Important
a.
The photo or graphic of the item that was presented.
1 2 3 4 5
b.
The price.
1 2 3 4 5
c.
The explanation of the item and its features.
1 2 3 4 5
d.
The general quality of the website.
1 2 3 4 5
e.
The convenience of shopping online.
1 2 3 4 5
f.
The ‘ease’ of finding the specific item.
1 2 3 4 5
IV. Related to online and local shopping, how these statements best describe you?
Not at all like
me
Just like me
a.
I like the help & friendliness I can get at local stores.
1 2 3 4 5
b.
I think Internet shopping would avoid the hassle of local shopping.
1 2 3 4 5
c.
I find the Internet ordering process is hard to understand & use.
1 2 3 4 5
d.
I like it that no car is necessary when shopping on the Internet.
1 2 3 4 5
e.
I think Internet shopping offers better selection than local stores.
1 2 3 4 5
f.
I want to see things in person before I buy.
1 2 3 4 5
g.
It would be a real hassle to return merchandise bought on-line.
1 2 3 4 5
h.
I worry about my credit card number being stolen on the Internet.
1 2 3 4 5
Not at all
V. Related to prices, how these statements best describe you?
Just like me
like me
a.
I would shop on the Internet (more) if the prices were lower.
1 2 3 4 5
b.
I think the Internet offers lower prices than local stores.
1 2 3 4 5
c.
Internet stores have more discounts than local stores.
1 2 3 4 5
d.
I dislike the idea of shipping charges when buying on the Internet.
1 2 3 4 5
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Not at all
VI. Related to shipping service, how these statements best describe you?
Just like me
like me
a.
I dislike the delivery problems & backorder of Internet buying.
1 2 3 4 5
b.
I like having products delivered to me at home.
1 2 3 4 5
c.
I don’t like having to wait for products to arrive in the mail.
1 2 3 4 5
VII. Do you agree that following statements are the problems when It comes to
shopping online with mobile devices?
Disagree
Agree
a.
Small screen size.
1 2 3 4 5
b.
Security of mobile websites.
1 2 3 4 5
c.
Unavailability of products.
1 2 3 4 5
d.
Expensive mobile internet service cost.
1 2 3 4 5
VIII. How important are the following features on the online stores?
Unimportant
Very Important
a.
Free shipping offers.
1 2 3 4 5
b.
Discount coupons.
1 2 3 4 5
c.
Money back guarantee.
1 2 3 4 5
d.
Different payment options.
1 2 3 4 5
e.
Customer reviews of products.
1 2 3 4 5
Part IX: Please add here any positive /negative comments regarding E-commerce implementation in BiH
Thank you for participating in this study.
274
The IPARD Programme in the context of European Union
Rural development funds
Dilek Memişoğlu1,Ayşe Durgun2, Sibel Yegül2
1Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Public Administration
Süleyman Demirel University, Turkey
2Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics
Süleyman Demirel University, Turkey
E –mails: [email protected],[email protected],sibelyegü[email protected]
Abstract
One of the pre-accession funds which provided by the European Union is IPARD (Instrument
for Pre-Accession Assistance-IPA). With this fund, it is aimed that include in some of the
priorities for the adaptation of the agricultural sector and rural areas and contribute to the
solution of problems. Thus, it is aimed people in rural areas attain sustainable business and
living conditions their own region. In this context, it is given priority such as market
efficiency, improving of quality and health standards, and creation of new employment
opportunities in rural and rural areas in the supported activities.
At this study primarily, it will be focused on the importance of rural development. Later, it
will be given information about funds in order to promote rural development by the European
Union. It will be especially focused on IPARD funds and the implementation of IPARD in
Turkey will be discussed.
Keywords: European Union, Rural Development, IPARD Programme, Turkey.
1. INTRODUCTION
275
Looking at the geography of Turkey in general, the width of rural areas attracts attention.
Therefore, it is possible to say that rural areas with a particular population have the potential
of economic and human resources which will contribute to the strengthening of the country
development. From this point, consider the potential and eliminate the deficiencies, make
new investments and services in rural areas, are important for sustainable development. In
fact, rural development today is considered not only in the terms of agricultural sector but
also in the context of regional development.
European Union also supports rural development through various funds in the region
countries. These supports aimed the sustainable development of rural areas in their region by
taking into consideration country needs, priorities and the local conditions in a manner
consistent with urban areas.
2. Rural Development in Development Process
The content of the term “development”, frequently used for underdeveloped countries, can
not only be defined as the increase in per capita income but it also has to involve the
development in all spheres of the economy as well as the reformation and modernization of
the economic and socio-cultural structure of the society. Assuming a vital significance for the
underdeveloped countries to be able to catch up with the developed ones, the term
“development” is a process which may come out both in stable and unstable terms. Within
this process, the key elements of the development can be listed as the increase in per capita
income as well as the grow of the share of the industry and service sectors in national income
and export through modification of the frequency and amount of the production factors.
(Han and Kaya; 2008:2).
The term “development”, having gained a significant importance particularly following the
Second World War and often cited in the literature, has been discussed in various studies
under several other headings like economic development, rural development, sustainable
development, etc. Among those complementary themes, rural development shall be discussed
in our study.
The rural area is plainly defined as the areas of land that are not urbanized. In broader terms,
it is the area of land where social and economic activities are largely dependent on the use of
the natural resources; the economic, social and cultural development processes move slowly;
the traditional values hold direct influence in daily life; face-to-face interaction preserves its
priority, the impact of the technological advancements on daily routines and production takes
longer to appear; the infrastructure services are insufficient and the population density is
lower than the urban areas. (DPT, 2000:2)
Rural areas remain behind the urban areas in terms of social or economic opportunities. The
structural, social and cultural reforms executed to ameliorate the living conditions of such
areas can be defined as the rural development. (Uzunpınar, 2008:11). In short, every activity
conducted in order to promote the rural life may mean rural development. However; for the
276
rural development activities to accomplish, in the first instance a sense of such need to
maintain a certain standard of living is to be raised among those who dwell in the rural areas
and earn their keep from farming or similar other rural area occupations; and then the
economic, social and cultural development of those communities are to be promoted in a
democratic manner by ensuring them with moral and material support. (Çandar, 2009:82)
Within this framework, the essence of the rural development is regarded as a political policy
that intends to ensure an optimum balance among social, cultural and economic differences
between the rural and urban; to improve the rural population on-site as well as to settle the
immigration and recruitment issues on-site. (Gülçubuk, 2002:1).
When viewed from this aspect, we may esteem that the rural development policies in Turkey
hold the similar objectives. That is to say, the relevant objective is mentioned in national rural
development statement as follows: “to make use of local and potential resources, to improve
and to sustain the working and living conditions of the rural areas on-site in harmony with the
urban areas in reliance on the protection of the natural and cultural assets.” (DPT, 2006:10).
3. Rural Development Policies in Turkey
Countries differ in their levels of development due to their geopolitical positions as well as
their proximity to or distance from the natural resources. Beside these basic variables, there
are plenty other factors having impact on the development of the countries. The
underdeveloped countries involve people who mostly engage in farming and dwell in rural
areas and whose economic activities, living standards, education levels as well as health
services fall behind compared to those in developed countries. In this respect, the
development of the rural areas holds a vital significance for the developing countries.
That a considerable amount of population dwell in the rural areas worldwide concerns not
only underdeveloped countries but also developed countries since the problems that the
people in rural areas encounter, the gap in level of income between the urban and rural, the
unfair distribution of income, sustainable use of the natural resources as well as the protection
of the environment are regarded as international issues. Abovementioned case lays stress on
the strategic significance of rural development for both developed and underdeveloped
countries. Consequently, alternative policies regarding the rural development have been
brought up recently.
Turkey has been adopting a set of scheduled development principles so as to conduct an
effective and rational socio-economic development through its progress plans since 1963.
The rural development policies were first brought up by Five Year Plans which sought for the
solutions to the problems of the rural areas. Within the 1st Five Year Progress Plan (19631967), the development of the society was perceived as rural development and “model
village” projects were put into practice. Within the 2nd Five Year Progress Plan (1968-1972),
the issues of urbanization, modernization in agriculture and industrialization were discussed.
The 3rd Five Year Progress Plan (1973-1977) marked the “Central Village” and “Agricultural
277
City” projects. Within the 4th Five Year Progress Plan (1979-1983), land reform was added
to the agenda while the main objective was set as the industrialization. “Leader Farmer” and
“GAP” projects were put into effect in the 5th Five Year Progress Plan. The final period of
the 6th plan and the initial period of the 7th plan marked the Customs Union Agreement.
Within the 8th Five Year Progress Plan, Rural Development Special Commission Report
discussing the modern village and agriculture approach as well as the increase in the income
and recruitment was issued. The 9th Progress Plan, issued for a period of seven years (20072013) considering The European Union Accession Period, marked The Action Plan for Rural
Development in accordance with The National Rural Development Strategy. The plan
encapsulates not only the agricultural and regional policies regarding rural development but
also the education, health, social security, trade and industry, recruitment, population, culture,
urbanization, energy, tourism as well as environment. (Işık and Baysal, 2011:166).
As said above, various policies or projects regarding the rural development have been
conducted in the scheduled period. However, these have failed to produce effective
outcomes. The rural development has gained more importance and considerably more efforts
have been put together with The European Union Accession Period.
4. Rural Development Policies of the European Union for the Candidate Countries and
Turkey
4.1. Rural Development Policies of the European Union and the Rural Development
Funds
Agriculture and rural development is still one of the most complex, sensitive and critical
issues in the enlargement conditions of European Union. Because agriculture has a significant
size (share of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), high number of the population active in
agriculture) and has structural deficiencies (subsistence and semi-subsistence farming). In the
enlargement process the European Commission plays a key role and it is closely associated in
the accession process including negotiations. Commission experts in the field of agriculture
and rural development provide assistance and guidance to candidate and potential candidate
countries preparing for the Common Agricultural Policy and Rural Development (European
Commission, 2012a).
In the 1950s the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) came up with the
candidate countries in the implementation of rural development policies. CAP includes all of
the policies pursued for the development of agriculture in order to bring the same level
between members of different structure and regulation of agricultural markets of member
countries in the agricultural sector. Initially, this application contains only the agricultural
policies over time, other issues concerning rural areas (tourism, handicrafts, etc.) expanded to
cover. Through the Common Agricultural Policy various programs have been developed to
be brought into line particularly promote rural development and agricultural policies of
candidate countries with the EU. In accordance with the CAP, various programs have been
278
developed to be bring into line agricultural policies of candidate countries with the EU and to
support the rural development of candidate countries. Special Accession Programme for
Agriculture and Rural Development (SAPARD) is one the programme that covers the years
2000–2006 and seeks to promote rural development in candidate countries. Instrument for
Pre-Accession Assistance for Rural Development (IPARD) programme is the other one that
covers 2007–2013 and still being implemented (Işık and Baysal, 2011: 167).
Special Accession Programme For Agriculture And Rural Development (SAPARD) is one
of the special European Union (EU) programmes started in June 1998. It is aimed to manage
problems in agriculture and rural development for enhancing competitiveness in reference to
the EU market and implementation of EU regulations in candidate countries. SAPARD
programme can be implemented until the candidate countries join to the EU (Perić, Odobaša,
and Konjić, 2009: 774).
The SAPARD programme aims at (Perić, Odobaša, and Konjić, 2009: 775):
- Harmonization with EU legislature in agriculture
- Preparation in common agricultural policy (CAP)
- Investing in agricultural land
- Improvement of soil quality
- Afforestation of agricultural areas
- Supporting the manufacturers of wood products,
- Improving the quality of arable land and parcelling
- Land-ownership records
- Professional education and training
- Agricultural and fishery products processing and marketing building up.
It is mentioned that the users of the programme are the producers, not the state. “The
agriculture market and structural aid authority has been structured to performing the
SAPARD programme of the Agency. It is the Agency that fulfills the function of SAPARD
implementation starting from instruments preparation and inviting applications, project
awarding, funding and field control9. SAPARD funding is targeted and grant-in-aid” (Perić,
Odobaša, and Konjić, 2009: 774).
4.2. Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA)
The European Union's rural development policy in the new period 2007–2013, consists of
three axes. These are competitive, land management and rural development axes.
Competition axis aims to support human resources (especially young farmers) and to increase
physical capacity, agricultural products and production capacity. The axis of land
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management purposes to ensure sustainable use of agricultural land and forest areas. And the
rural development axis pursues goals such as improving the quality of life and economic
diversity and rising and training is the acquisition of skills. (EC, 2008: 17).
The EU introduces new conditions for financing agriculture and rural development both for
the member states and candidate countries by the new budget period 2007-2013. According
to this, a new programme called as Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA), will
replace the Polognie et Hungrie Assistance Pour la Restructuration Economique (PHARE),
Instrument for Structural Policies for Pre-Accession (ISPA), Special Accession Programme
For
Agriculture And Rural Development (SPARD), Community Assistance for
Reconstruction Development and Stabilisation (CARDS) programmes and the Turkey preaccession instrument (Perić, Odobaša, and Konjić, 2009: 776). IPA replaces all the preaccession instruments and unifies them into a single framework. It also supports all the
candidate and potential candidate countries with a clear and easy pre-accession aim on all
categories. IPA has five components and it provides targeted and effective assistance for each
country according to its needs and evolution by these components (European Commission,
2010).
The Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) is the financial instrument for the
European Union (EU) pre-accession process for the period 2007-2013. The IPA is intended
as a flexible instrument. So it provides assistance to beneficiary countries according to their
progress and their needs through the Commission’s evaluations and strategy papers. The
beneficiary countries are divided into two categories, depending on their status. One of them
is candidate countries and these are under accession process. And the other one is potential
candidate countries and these are under the stabilization and association process. Candidate
countries are the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Croatia and Turkey (Annex I to
the Regulation). Potential candidate countries are defined as Albania, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Iceland, Montenegro, and Serbia including Kosovo (Annex II to the
Regulation) (European Commission, 2012b).
The IPA’s main aim is to support institution-building and the rule of law, human rights,
including the fundamental freedoms, minority rights, gender equality and non-discrimination,
both administrative and economic reforms, economic and social development, reconciliation
and reconstruction, and regional and cross-border cooperation. To achieve targeted, effective
and coherent action, the IPA is made up of five components (European Commission, 2012b).
Each component has priorities defined according to the needs of the beneficiary countries
(European Commission, 2012c):
1. Transition Assistance and Institution Building: It provides financing for institutionbuilding and associated investments. It supports measures to drive stabilization and the
transition to a democratic society and market economy. This component is open to all
candidates and potential candidates.
280
2. Cross-Border Cooperation: It supports cross-border cooperation between candidates and
potential candidates and with EU Member States. It may also fund participation in
transnational cooperation programmes (under the Structural Funds) and Sea Basin
programmes (under the European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument or ENPI). This
component is open to all candidates and potential candidates.
3. Regional Development: It finances investments and associated technical assistance in areas
such as transport, environment and economic cohesion. It is open to candidate countries only.
4. Human Resources Development: It aims to strengthen human capital through education
and training and to help combat exclusion. It is open to candidate countries only.
5. Rural Development: It contributes to sustainable rural development. It provides assistance
for the restructuring of agriculture and its adaptation to EU standards in the areas of
environmental protection, public health, animal and plant health, animal welfare and
occupational safety. It is open to candidate countries only.
In this process candidate countries and potential candidates are separated from each other.
Because candidate countries are prepared for full implementation of the Community acquis at
the time of accession. On the other hand potential candidate countries shall benefit from
support to progressively align themselves to the Community acquis. Beside this, potential
candidates may utilize last three components under the framework of the first component. It
can be said that the difference is especially in the implementation way of these measures.
Because beneficiary countries must manage the Community funds in a decentralized way
preparing for the implementation of the structural and agricultural funds in the context of the
three components (European Commission, 2012b).
It is not possible to talk about a competition environment for countries while using funds. The
envelope has been allocated to beneficiaries according to the needs of each country. One of
the main objectives of IPA is to strengthen the administrative capacity of all beneficiary
countries. Hence beneficiaries will be able to receive support to increase the administrative
capacity and establish the correct management structures necessary to take responsibility of
the management of assistance under the transition assistance and institution building
component. For candidate countries, this will then allow measures relating to regional, human
resources and regional development to be undertaken through the relevant components
(which are designed to prepare for structural funds and hence require such management
structures). For potential candidates, such development will be essential preparation for
candidate status (European Commission, 2010).
IPA should ensure a higher level of coherence and co-ordination of EU Assistance and better
preparation for Structural, Cohesion and Rural development Funds through progressive
emulation of EU funds rules. The financial envelope allocated for the period 2007–2013 is
10.2 billion Euros (at 2004 prices) (Davis, 2007: 7). Potential beneficiaries of the IPA are the
local self-government units, farmings and other natural or legal persons depending on priority
measures (Perić, Odobaša, and Konjić, 2009: 776).
281
It is possible to say that IPA has different management and implementation conditions. The
IPA is based on strategic multi-annual planning. It is formed in agreement with the broad
political guidelines set out in the Commission's enlargement package, which now contains a
Multi-annual Indicative Financial Framework (MIFF). The MIFF constitutes the reference
framework of the multi-annual indicative planning documents which are composing the
strategic planning. Multi-annual indicative planning documents are created for each
beneficiary country and contain the main intervention areas envisaged for that country.
Annual or multi-annual programmes depend on the component and are based on the
indicative planning documents and adopted by the Commission. The annual or multi-annual
programmes are implemented by centralized, decentralized or shared management methods
(European Commission, 2012b).
Assistance through IPA can take the following forms (European Commission, 2012c):
• Investment, procurement, contracts or subsidies
• Administrative cooperation, involving experts sent from Member States (e.g. twinning)
• Action by the EU in the interest of the beneficiary country
• Measures to support the implementation process and programme management
• Budget support (granted exceptionally and subject to supervision)
4.3. Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance for Rural Development (IPARD)
IPARD differs from the other components of the IPA. According to this, IPARD has
devolved the control of financial resources completely to the candidate countries. Thus, the
points such as monitoring of national accreditation process and the accredited organization,
transferring of the fund management to IPARD agency, which has been accredited by the
Commission and controlling of the IPARD agency after application (ex-post) are stand out.
(European Commission, 2007). As mentioned before, IPARD programme exposes an easier
and simple structure than SAPARD. For example, SAPARD includes 15 measures, but
IPARD contains 9 measures in 3 axes (Turhan and Akdağ, 2006).
These axes include the following measures (Davis, J., 2007: 7-8):
Priority Axis 1-Improving market efficiency and implementing Community standards
• Investments in farms to restructure and upgrade to the EU standards;
• Supporting setting up of Producer groups
• Investments in processing and marketing of agriculture and fishery products to restructure
and upgrade to the EU standards
Priority Axis 2-Preparatory actions for implantation of the agri-environmental measures and
Leader
• Preparation to implement actions designed to improve the environment and the country side
282
• Preparation of local private-public partnerships to implement local development strategies
Priority Axis 3-Development of rural economy
• Improving and developing rural infrastructure;
• Development and diversification of rural economic activities;
• Improvement of training
• Technical assistance
The main purpose of the IPARD is to contribute to the implementation of the acquis related
to the EU Common Agricultural Policy and to determine some priorities and to contribute to
the solution of problems in the candidate countries. Accordingly it is aimed to give priority to
market efficiency, quality and improving health standards and the creation of new
employment opportunities in rural areas (Bakırcı, 2009: 59).
IPARD entrusts the financial control of all funds to the candidate country and brings an
improved decentralized implementation system. In this respect, it is possible to say that a
different application and scheduling mechanism is exhibited by IPARD and IPARD differs
from the other components of IPA. Accordingly, the candidate country primarily needs to
prepare a Rural Development Plan that must be approved by the Commission. In addition, a
Rural Development Agency must be built and must be accredited in the candidate countries
for implementation (Yıldız and Akdağ, 2006: 35).
4.3.1. IPARD Programme of Turkey
IPA made up of five components and as a candidate country Turkey can beneficiary from all
the components of IPA and also IPARD. IPARD is the fifth component of the IPA and
includes rural development supports. Following initiation of negotiations, Turkey has started
to work to fulfill the prerequisites. In this respect, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural
Affairs Department of Strategy Development has prepared the IPARD Programme by
negotiating with relevant departments of the European Commission. Prepared IPARD
Programme has accepted by the European Commission Rural Development Committee by
discussing (Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock, 2008).
IPARD plan focused on issues such as, the country's overall socio-economic characteristics
and current status, a detailed analysis of the agricultural sector, the economic activities in
rural areas, human resources and regional differences, the country's agricultural policies,
implemented before the development plans, goals and strategies and national support.
However the part that shows what areas, which sectors and to whom the EU funds will be
transferred under which conditions is the most important part of the programme and called as
measures or technical jobs. The selected measures for the first level of programme includes
following (Support Institution of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2010: 167):
283
• Investments for restructuring of agricultural businesses and the delivery to the Community
standards
• Investments for to restructure processing and marketing of agricultural and fishery products
and the delivery to the Community standards
• Investments for diversification and the development of rural economic activities
In this context, the amount of funds allocated to Turkey under the rural development
component of the IPA has determined total 660.9 million Euros between the years of 20072012 (European Commission, 2011).
The IPARD programme for Turkey is in line with the Multi-annual Indicative Planning
Document (MIPD) between the years of 2007 - 2009 as well as the enlargement package and
other strategic documents on the pre-accession process of Turkey. The main policy objectives
are to contribute to the modernization of the agricultural sector (including processing)
through targeted investments while at the same time encouraging the improvement of EU
acquis related food safety, veterinary, phytosanitary, environmental or other standards as
specified in the Enlargement Package and to contribute to the sustainable development of
rural areas (Europa, 2007).
There are 3 overall aims of IPARD programme in the country. First one is, modernization of
the agricultural production and processing sectors through increasing efficiency and
competitiveness and implementation of Community standards. Second one is capacitybuilding and preparatory actions for the implementation of agri-environmental measures and
the LEADER method. And the last one is, development and diversification of the rural
economy, increase of quality of life and attractiveness of the rural areas, counteracting rural
out-migration (Europa, 2007).
On the other hand there 3 axes of IPARD programme in Turkey. Axis 1 aims to improve
market efficiency and to implement Community standards and it has 154.954.667 million
Euros (73%) public aid for the periods 2007 – 2009. Under Axis 1, three measures will be
implemented as the following (Europa, 2007):
• Investment in agricultural holdings to restructure and to upgrade to Community standards
(40% of the public aid),
• Investment in processing and marketing of agricultural and fishery products to restructure
and upgrade to Community standards (28% of the public aid),
• Support for the setting up of producer groups (5% of the public aid).
Axis 2 purposes to prepare actions for the implementation of agri-environmental measures
and Links between Actions for the Development of Rural Economy (LEADER). The
Programme includes an outline of preparatory actions planned for the implementation of agrienvironmental measures such as erosion control, water resource conservation, biodiversity as
well as for the LEADER method (acquisition of skills, implementation of local development
284
strategies, running costs for approved Local Action Groups as well as co-operation projects
between those groups). The measures will be developed in detail and submitted to the Rural
Development Committee for adoption after a capacity-building process including institutionbuilding and training during the period 2010 – 2013 (Europa, 2007).
Ultimately Axis 3 intends to provide development of the rural economy and contains
53.066.667 million Euros (25%) public aid during the period 2007-2009. Under Axis 3 the
diversification and development of rural economic activities will be implemented. The main
priorities of Axis 3 are to contribute to the development of the rural economy, diversify onfarm and off-farm activities, to support the formation of micro enterprises in order to create
new jobs as well as to maintain the existing jobs in rural areas. And the supports through Axis
3 will be provided to (Europa, 2007):
• Diversification and development of on-farm activities (bee keeping and honey production,
medicinal and aromatic plants, ornamental plants production),
• Local product and micro enterprise development,
• Rural tourism,
• Aquaculture.
IPARD implementation which will be implemented through the IPARD programme consists
of two phases. The first stage encompasses the years 2007-2009 and the second stage covers
the years 2010-2013. Various measures are envisaged in the two stages and four sectors have
been defined as priority for IPARD intervention as the following (Ministry of Agriculture and
Rural Affairs, 2008: 177):
• Milk and milk products processing sector,
• Meat and meat products processing sector including poultry
• Fish processing sector
• Fruits & Vegetable processing sector
“The priorities for IPARD intervention in the processing sector are the assistance to the
implementation of EU Acquis - notably related to quality, hygiene and food safety and
veterinary controls, animal welfare, environmental impact and occupational safety – by the
processing industry, as well as the improvement of the efficiency of the processes” (Ministry
of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, 2008: 177).
Support Institution of Agriculture and Rural Development is established as an IPARD agency
in accordance with the IPARD program in order to fulfill the program requirements on 4 May
2007. Because the national accreditation process completed positively Support Institution of
Agriculture and Rural Development Central and Provincial Coordinatorships have been
accredited by the National Authorizing Officer on 21 July 2010 (Tarımsal ve Kırsal
Kalkınmayı Destekleme Kurumu, 2010: 18). Up to now in the context of IPARD programme
285
five times the call announcements have been made to support businesses willing to invest by
Support Institution of Agriculture and Rural Development.
5. CONCLUSION
In recent years, the EU emerges as one of the actors that support rural development. The EU,
thanks to funds provided for the candidate countries supports rural development in these
countries on one hand and aims to harmonize agricultural policies of these countries with the
EU on the other hand. The IPA is the financial instrument for the EU pre-accession process
for the period 2007-2013. IPA made up of five components and IPARD is the fifth
component of the IPA and includes rural development supports. IPARD programme covers
2007–2013 and still being implemented. As a candidate country Turkey can beneficiary from
all the components of IPA and also IPARD.
The Development Bank of Turkey recorded a total country population of 73.722.000 in 2012.
The rural area population makes up 29% of the total population (21.382.000). The total
number of recruitment in agriculture, industry and service sectors is 22.594.000 while
5.683.000 people engage in agricultural sector making up 39% of the total recruitment. The
figures above mark the significance of the rural development policies for Turkey.
Additionally, the rural development assumes a strategic significance to ensure the regional
development and repair the instabilities among the geographical regions in Turkey.
Through the EU rural development policies and funds and also IPARD programme as a
candidate country, Turkey was a new era in rural development policies. In this new era,
agricultural and rural producers are supported with funds and increasing the efficiency and
the diversity of the product is aimed. Furthermore different methods for achieving rural
development are envisaged. Accordingly, diversification of non-farming income-generating
activities such as tourism and handicrafts has targeted in agricultural and rural areas, where
seasonal unemployment is more than the other places. thereby creating new jobs, increase
income and upgrade living standards of people living in rural area and prevent migration is
intended.
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Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Role of Saudi Arabia
Nađa Dreca
International University of Sarajevo,Faculty of Business and Administration
71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Abstract
The aim of this research is to explain the OPEC position and the role of Saudi Arabia within
OPEC. Saudi Arabia as the largest producer and country with largest oil reserves of oil attract
many attention and many studies try to explain which role Saudi Arabia plays within OPEC,
is it the role of dominant producer and which strategy Saudi Arabia used during its
membership in order to keep its position and its market share. Saudi Arabia role is to keep the
balance of production within OPEC. Saudi Arabia was explained as swing producer, and in
order to protect itself and its interest because of cheating of other members of OPEC, it was
forced to adopt the strategy tit-for-tat. There is big question of it is good to have dominant
producer, or all of them to be equal.
Keywords: OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Cartel, Oil prices, dominant producer
1. INTRODUCTION
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is the international organization
composed of the twelve member states. These countries mainly depend on the revenues from
oil export. They work together in the coordination of the overall oil price in the world
market. OPEC is by market structure Cartel, which represents intergovernmental
organization. As it is stated in OPEC`s Statute it is an international organization with aim to
influence and maintain the price of oil through the control of production levels and to
generate revenue, which goes towards meeting the development needs of its members. By
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controlling production, by system of quotas, the OPEC has large influence on the
determination of the price on the world market. It is hard to distinguish what is OPEC
exactly, is it real cartel with cooperative or non-cooperating behavior. Every cartel face with
three factors that must be accomplished in order to properly function as the cartel:
coordination, cheating and entry. In the case for entry in OPEC case there is really high
barriers to entry, so new producers are prevented from entrance on the oil market. Cheating is
big problem in OPEC. Each country has incentive to cheat because the dominant strategy for
most of the OPEC members is cheating. Each member has different needs. OPEC imposes
production quotas to its members and meets twice a year to define their oil production
policies. If their coordination is effective there would not be any member that violates the
rule of quota. On the meeting the OPEC assigns the ceiling of the total output and assigns to
each member the share that it should produce. If the member cheats the cartel should be able
to detect and punish cheating. (Smith 2005) Aguiar-Conraria and Wen(2011) show that
equilibrium depends crucially on the cartel`s choice of the control variable: price or quantity.
According to the Hochman and Zilberman (2011) the OPEC is not economic but political
cartel among big-oil exporting countries, which set fuel policy to maximize aggregate
welfare. OPEC can be kind of the monopoly and can act as monopolist, but because there is
some oil supply by the non-OPEC countries it is cartel. Market of the oil is not competitive,
OPEC as a cartel fixes the output, production level, while other non- OPEC countries react to
satisfy world demand (leader-follower game). OPEC knows how others will react so it is able
to determine own demand and oil price so it defines its quota level to maximize own net
revenue. It is example of Stackelberg game, where OPEC is leader and followers are NonOPEC producers and oil consumers. Demand for the oil of the OPEC is residual demand.
There is still the question whether OPEC is a cartel or not.
The work by Gulen (1996) investigates if the OPEC is cartel through causality test. Causality
test should detect if the OPEC is able to affect prices by changing the production. Researches
done before try to explain the OPEC as a cartel or non-cartel model. Non –cartels models are
focused on competition, changes in ownership and revenue target modes. Cartel models
attempt to make the OPEC classification as the monopoly, oligopoly or dominant firm. Tests
done in the Kaufman et al 2008, reject the hypothesis about the competitive behavior,
changes in ownership and revenue target. Increase in the price of oil is affect by four factors:
capacity utilization by OPEC, production quotas established by OPEC, the degree to which
OPEC production exceeds these quotas and private stock crude oil that are held in OPEC
nations. It implies that OPEC through decisions about production, quotas, and operable
capacity can influence real prices of oil. Many studies try to describe the nature of OPEC. Is
it cartel or non-cartel market model? According to models the quotas have a statistically
measureable effect on crude oil production in most of the countries. OPEC quota decisions
influence the decision about price. Also it is shown that oil production by other OPEC nations
has a measurable effect on the own production of individual member of OPEC. (Kaufman et
al 2008) Many factors influence the production of oil by OPEC. Those factors are mostly:
price of oil and condition on market, the level of oil production by other producers that are
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not members of OPEC and the geopolitical environment. New discovered reserves of oil in
the other countries non –OPEC members leads to the increase in the oil supply on the
international level, with better technology and declines in the market share of OPEC. More
producers on the market increase the competition and brought market to more competitive
conditions and more competitive prices, so the OPEC abandoned the administer oil pricing
system in mid 80-s and moved to market-reference pricing based on the price quotas provided
by oil price reporting agencies. In the OPEC interest is to adjust production quotas in order to
achieve price target zone. Ability of OPEC to influence prices depends on the market
participants` expectations in the future markets. In order to keep the price target range in the
condition when the global oil demand declines, the OPEC would decrease production. These
decisions are dependent on the coordination efforts and bargaining power of OPEC member
countries. In the case of greater demand, OPEC would not respond immediately because of
the large uncertainty of future demand. Another limitation of oil production lies in the
unfavorable geopolitical climate in OPEC member countries regarding security and there
could be adopt the sanction that could have adverse impact on the investments and create
limitation of expansion of capacity. (Barros et al 2011).
The OPEC success is based on three factors: its overwhelmingly high share in world oil
supply, the absence of close substitutes and consequently the inelastic demand for oil, and
inelastic non- OPEC supply. (Panayotou 1978)
According to Bagheri 2011: In order to realize the goals OPEC does the following policy:
The excess production capacity in major producing member countries
The quota system by which member countries are obligated to consider the upper limits for
their oil production.
The OPEC use the excess production capacity to stabilize the price.
2. SAUDI ARABIA ROLE IN OPEC
As the largest world producer of oil role of Saudi Arabia in OPEC is discussed in many
articles. Saudi Arabia acted as swing producer in 80s with adjusting output of oil in order to
keep stable the production of oil and the price. After the persistent cheating of other
members, Saudi Arabia was forced to adopt tit –for- tat strategy to keep its market share.
Most stated that the Saudi Arabia is the leader in the OPEC production. In Smith 2005 found
indicator that Saudi Arabia may have played a special role within OPEC.
2.1 Swing producer
The Saudi Arabia leadership within cartel is established in order to stabilize or moderate oil
prices and achieve its political objectives (Al Yousef 2011). The Saudi Arabia is represented
in some studies as the swing producer or the balance wheel which absorb fluctuations in the
supply and demand in order to maintain the monopoly price. As is it quoted in AlYousef
291
2011, the monopoly price and the stability of OPEC depends more on whether Saudi Arabia`s
share of the production of oil by cartel satisfies its objective than on the cohesion of the
cartel, according to proposed model Arabia chooses the price path in order to maximize its
wealth and taking into consideration the reactions of the other members. In order to achieve
and keep the cartel price OPEC defines its own production level, and Saudi Arabia acts as the
swing producer. Griffin and Teece 1982 stated that Saudi Arabia is the swing producer or the
balancing wheel absorbing demand and supply fluctuation in order to keep stable monopoly
price. They found that price level and level of stability in OPEC mostly depends on how
Saudi Arabia satisfies its own needs, then on the cartel behavior. It is found that OPEC is
choosing its production level to keep stable cartel price while Saudi Arabia acted as the swing
producer. Especially it is shown in period of 1975 when Saudi Arabia decreased its
production level in order to keep stable oil price at the monopolistic level. (AlYousef,2011).
In the case of OPEC ( Smith 2005) there is compensating behavior. One producer increase
own production in order to offset the decline in production of others. (Smith 2005) examines
the comparative static properties of equilibrium adjustment and he found that differences in
the frequency of compensating the changes in the output are connected with the degree of the
independence among the producers. This gives explanation in order to define which type of
behavior is applied, competitive, oligopolistic or collusive behavior.
In 1980s Saudi Arabia acts as a swing producer and Saudi Arabia adjusted its production of
oil in order to stabilize the production of OPEC and target price. In the work of Griffin et al
1994, the empirical results were designed to show that Saudi Arabia played the role of swing
producer, when the profits fell below the Cournot profit floor, the swing producer strategy
was abandoned and tit-for –tat strategy was implemented later. In the earlier ages the Saudi
Arabia in order to stabilize prices adjust output by adopting the swing producer strategy. In
period of 1983 to 1985 there was swing producer role assigned to Saudi Arabia and quotas to
other members. Swing producer role is favorable if the Saudi Arabia profits more than under
the Cournot production level. The success of this strategy depends on the willingness of other
OPEC countries to restrict their output below Cournot level and follow quota. If others
exceed the quotas, the Saudi Arabia decided to produce according to Cournot model in order
to punish them. Everyone would be better off if produces within quota and Saudi Arabia acts
as a swing producer. If others increase the production level and exceeds the quota it decrease
revenue of Saudi Arabia and transfer it to the others and creates incentives for others to cheat
and produce more. One of the explanation of the oil collapse in 1986 was the due to Saudi
Arabia decision to left the role of the swing producer.
Dahl and Yucel (1991) tested the swing producer model and that Saudi Arabia production
level does not have any relationship with the level of output of others. Saudi Arabia is acting
as a swing producer to prevent sharp price drops by cutting production rapidly in response to
declining prices.
2.2 Dominant producer
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Smith in his work in 2008 examines: the OPEC goal is to set the price. Kaufman et al (2008)
results indicate that higher prices have a positive effect on production of Saudi Arabia. In
their work Saudi Arabia did not showed the sharing behavior so it leads to conclusion that
Saudi Arabia is a dominant firm. As it is quoted in Al- Qahtani (2008) it is found that the best
model that explains the oil price in period 1974 to 1978 is dominant firm model. He believed
that Saudi Arabia dominated the residual demand and through adjusting their production level
they determine oil price on world market. Saudi Arabia has name of the dominant producer
because of its large oil reserves and excess capacity production.
Figure 1: Saudi Arabia Responses
Griffin and Teece 1982 explains OPEC as the dominant producer with Saudi Arabia that acts
as swing producer that is able to absorb the fluctuations in demand and supply. As quoted
Saudi Arabia is the swing producer or the balancing wheel absorbing demand and supply
fluctuation in order to keep stable monopoly price. They found that price level and level of
stability in OPEC mostly depends on how Saudi Arabia satisfies its own needs, then on the
cartel behavior. Saudi Arabia chose the combination which maximizes its wealth by taking
into consideration the reaction of others. Grriffin 1994 shows that Saudi Arabia production
depends on the production of others, with Saudi Arabia as the market leader which varies
production inversely to the competitive output including the rest of OPEC.
2.3 Tif – fof –Tat Strategy
Saudi Arabia adopted the strategy tit-for-tat in order to punish cheating by other members of
OPEC. Griffin and Neilson (1994) show in their work that in oil period of 1985 to 1986 the
Saudi Arabia adopted tit –for –tat strategy that benefits to all members of cartels and
established the production disciplines among them. Later Saudi Arabia was forced adopted
tit-for tat strategy to keep its market share because of the cheating by others. Results from
Dibooglu 2007 shows that there is significant influence of cheating in the OPEC on the real
price of oil. Again in period 87-90 Saudi Arabia production oscillated slightly around the
quota level and after increase in the cheating by other members Saudi Arabia in 1988 start to
aggressively increase production and to cheat in order to match the level of the cheating by
other members of cartel. This was the adoption of the tit-for-tat strategy because each
293
member of OPEC, including the Saudi Arabia exceeded the assigned quotas and Saudi Arabia
kept its market share.
The strategy adopted by OPEC should be Pareto efficiency. The Saudi Arabia adopted the titfor-tat strategy as long as the others production deviate from assigned quotas, and produces
according to the Cournot best-response function for the reminder of the game if the other
exceeds given level. All members produce according to their their Cournot best response
functions. It is equilibrium in which Arabia plays tit-for-tat strategy and earns the profit. The
strategy depends on behavior of others. They found that there is strong evidence that cheating
by members of OPEC has significant influence on the real price of oil, which leads to
conclusion that quota system is not effective. During the period of its membership Saudi
Arabia was leader in the oil market. It has this role because of its position regarding
production and reserves of oil. OPEC`s success was probably due to willingness of its largest
member; Saudi Arabia, to act unilaterally to keep oil prices high. When one of the smaller
members increased its output of oil, Saudi Arabia reduced their own in compensation. This
was not altruism on Saudi Arabia part; rather, it arose from the logic of situation. The Saudi
Arabia position is example of game theory model called Dominant Pig. Here Saudi Arabia is
in the position of big pig. Both Saudi Arabia and the smaller producers knew that OPEC
would collapse unless the Saudi Arabia limited their own production; and the smaller
producers took advantage of this, getting a free ride on the Saudi Arabia efforts. Saudi Arabia
captured for itself a large enough share of the benefits of the high prices that it rationally
willing to bear a disproportionate share of the cost of maintaining the cartel. (McMillan
1992).
3. CONCLUSION
It is hard to distinguish which kind of cartel OPEC is. As in each cartel in OPEC there is also
cheating behavior by its members. OPEC must be able to detect and to punish cheaters. Each
of the members are dependent on the oil production and it is in their interest to maximize
output. OPEC is as organization as cartel, but it has almost monopoly power, because all
other oil market participants depend on the decision of the OPEC.
Saudi Arabia plays important role in OPEC. The role of the Saudi Arabia is to be medium
which balance the production of the OPEC. Saudi Arabia is producer that actually influences
the price indirectly, because if the Saudi Arabia cheats it would increase the output by whole
OPEC and it would lead to the decrease in the price. Change in behavior of Saudi Arabia
would shake equilibrium in the oil market, prices would decline etc. In order to prevent the
oil shocks it would be better if the production is split among the all members, without making
production of oil dependent on the only one producer. Position of Saudi Arabia is very
plausible for its own interest, but if the interest of Saudi Arabia clash with interest of other
members of OPEC it would bring negative consequences on the oil market, because Saudi
Arabia in order to protect itself could make decision that would make all participants worse
294
off. It could lead to the increase in prices so it would hurt others, especially customers. Each
member has the incentive to cheat. When one cheat, all others want the same and it leads to
worse condition, production increased, price decline as well as there is decrease in the
revenue. Each market should have force that will keep balance and stable equilibrium, and it
is done by swing and dominant producer which is strong enough to provide support to others
and brings benefits to everyone.
REFERENCES
Aguirar-Conraria, L. and Wen,Y. (2011) OPEC` s Oil Exporting Strategy and
Macroeconomic (In)Stability Working Paper 2011-013A, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Al-Qahtani, A. “ A Model for the Global Oil Market: Optimal Oil Production Levels for
Saudi Arabia”
Al- Qahtani, A. Balisteri, E. and Dahl,C. (2008),” Literature Review on Oil Market and
OPEC1s Behavior”, Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines
Al- Yousef, N. (1998) “ Economic Models of OPEC Behaviour and the Role of Saudi
Arabia” Department of Economics, University of Surrey
Al-Yousef , N.(2011) “ The Dominant Role of Saudi Arabia in the Oil Market from 1997 2010”
Bagheri, A. (2011) “OPEC`s Role in Diversified Future Energy Market” Iranian Journal of
Economic Research, Vol.16, No.46,pp.1-18
Bandyopadhyay, K. R. (2010) “ Does OPEC Acts as Residual producer” Asian Institute of
Transport Development, MPRA Paper No. 25841,
Barros, C. P., Gil-Alana, L.A. and Payne, J.E. (2011) “An Analysis of Oil Production by
OPEC Countries: Persistence, Breaks, and Outliners” Working Paper Series No.06/11, Centre
for EMEA Banking, Finance & Economics, London Metropolitan Business School
Dibooglu, S. and AlGudhea, S.N , (2007) All time cheaters versus cheaters in distress: an
Examination of cheatinf and oil prices in OPEC” Economic Systems vol.31, pp.292-310
Griffin, James M. (1985). “OPEC Behavior: A Test of Alternative Hypotheses,” American
Economic Review, 75(5), 954-963.
Griffin, J.M. and Nielson, W.S.(1994) “The 1985- 1986 oil price collapse and afterwards:
what does game theory add?” Economic Inquiry, Vol.32, No.4, pp.543-561
Gulen, S.G.(1996) “Is OPEC a cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests”,
The Energy Journal, Vol.17, No.2, pp.43-57
Hochman, G. and Zilberman, D. (2011) The political economy of OPEC
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Kaufman, R.K., Bradford, A., Belanger,L.H.,Mclaughlin,J.P. and Miki, Y.(2008)
“Determinats of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior”, Energy Economics,
Vol.20, No.2, pp.333-351
McMillan, J.(1992) Games, Strategies and Managers, Oxford University press
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) www.opec.org
Panayatou, T. “ OPEC as a model for cooper exporters: Potential gains and cartel Behavior
Smith, J.L (2005) “Inscrutable OPEC: Behavioral Test of Cartel Hypothesis”, The Energy
Journal, Vol.26, No.1, pp.51-82
Cooperation and competition in Information Technology Business: Case of ICT firms in
Konya
M. Atilla Aricioğlu1,Deniz Göktaş2, Birol Mercan2
1Department of Business Administration, Konya University,Konya, Turkey
2Department of Economics, Konya University, Konya, Turkey
Abstract
The notion of clusters has been attracted increasing interest from academics and business
practitioners for two decades. The theory and research emphasize their strong and positive
influence in promoting industrial development, innovation, and competitiveness and
economic growth. Thus clusters, become a useful policy instrument in regional innovation
systems (RIS) aiming to promote sustainable regional growth. Related literature suggests that
competitive clusters provide a fertile and conducive business environment for companies to
collaborate with research institutions, suppliers, customers and competitors located in the
same geographical area. They are becoming powerful engines of economic development and
drivers. Not all industries can create opportunities for employment, but of which share
knowledge and transfer technology both directly and through upstream and downstream
linkages with other relevant sectors. Not only they move their production facilities, they also
intend to transfer their research and development units from those favorable regions which
have relatively higher stage of development than the others in terms of infrastructure
facilities, education and training institutions, stable incentives, subsidiary potential, and the
presence of other multinational enterprises.
296
The informatics sector can provide a foundation for the growth of industrial activity in a
developing economy. Therefore, as an example of high-tech clusters and potentially highvalue added sectors in developing countries, in-depth analysis of the informatics sector with
its hardware suppliers as a whole can shed light on the question of how a developing country
can structure its strategies to be able to upgrade and be competitive over time. In recent years,
Turkey has made an effort as a major player in the global informatics sector. Owing to its
skilled labor/brain force, rapid growth and market potential, Turkey has gained tremendous
attention of the informatics sector since 1980s. According to a survey of a city of Konya
sample, innovation attitudes the company managers operating in the IT sector has been
measured. In line with this purpose survey of firms in Konya Teknokent has been conducted.
Keywords: Cluster, Innovation, Konya, IT, Competition
1.INTRODUCTION
In our age, globalization reshapes the social, economic and political sphere. In a changing
world economic beliefs and paradigms are changing. One of the changing beliefs in business
is the pattern of competition. Traditional cost oriented competition patterns replaced with
quality and innovation based patterns. Until 1990’s cost oriented theories like comparative
advantage, dominate the competition theory both in international context and inter firm
level.Since 1990’s quality and innovation oriented theories has complemented the cost
oriented models. Porter (1990)emphasizes geographical proximity as a key to gain
competitive advantage through cost advantages. Geographic proximity provides several
advantages for firms and industries. Firstly, geographical proximity means a face to face
interaction among firms and between firms and organizations. Second it facilities the creation
of social capital, common language and common culture. Thirdly, flow of information and
exchange of tacit knowledge is easier under geographic proximity. In addition, diffusion of
knowledge spill overs and academic research is easier when firms are close to academic
organizations. Thus inter firm or inter organization cooperation is important besides the
competition between them. In the proposed new competitive models, cooperation is seen
productive than rivalry.Cluster theory which is coined to explain advantages of geographical
proximity in case of collaboration and sufficient factor endowment. This study is an attempt
to explore clustering trends of Konya ICT industry.
2.Cooperation and Cluster for Gaining Advantage
Beyond possessing physical resources and assets, firms should manage the cooperative
process in order to survive and operate in business sphere (Raco, Mike, 1999). In other words
firms must learn cooperating while they are competing against each other. This kind of
cooperation is strategic because it enables benefiting from main business activities, product
lines and technological diversity (Garcia, Cristina Q. and Velasco, Carlos A. B., 2000). A
vast of studies that were carried on competition literature attempted to explain pattern of
297
competition in micro, mezzo or macro level.Despite various applying methods and tools,
there have been no consensuses on the concept of competition(Çivi, E. 2001). Clustering has
been commonly accepted as a method, a tool and approach to competition since the
beginning of 1990s. Although there are many definitions of clusters, most comprehensive one
is Porter’s definition. Porter(2000) defines clusters:
Clusters are geographic concentrations of interconnected companies, specialized suppliers,
service providers, firms in related industries, and associated institutions (e.g., universities,
standards Agencies, trade associations) in a particular field that compete but also
cooperate.(Porter, 2000:15)
First point in this definition is geographic concentration of companies and their relations with
each other and non-firm institutions. Firms have connections either horizontal (supplier and
provider) or vertical (related industries and associated institutions.) Second emphasis is the
cooperation of competing firms. Thirdly, companies in a particular field (specific market or
industry) should concentrate.
Studies on clustering mostly focus on qualified workforce, information providers, physical
infrastructures and sustainability. They concluded that these components would attract
international companies to the region and provide region a competitive advantage.
(Avnimelech, G. & Schwartz, D. & Bar-El, R 2007, Haan, U. 2008, Parto, S. 2008, Brenner,
T. &Gildner, A. ,2006., Lazonick, W. ,2008,. Narula, R. & Marin, A. 2005)
In the clustering literature, Porter’s works shed light to other studies which emphasized on
aspects above. It has been known that the coined approach was widely attracted attention in
international context.
3.Porter’s Diamond Model
Porter (2000) introduces four aspects that have influence on the competitive advantage for
firms. These four aspects, (i) factor(input) conditions, (ii) demand conditions,(iii)context for
firm’s strategy and rivalry (iv) relating and supporting industries are the four corners of
diamond. Porter employed this model for determining which firms and industries have
competitive advantage and role relating and supporting industries. This theory encourages
the further exploration of clustering. The model givesan insight to detect which industries
locate which regions.
Chance
298
Context for
Firm Strategy
and Rivalry
Demand
Conditions
Factor(Input)
Conditions
Related and
Supporting
Industries
Figure.1. Porter’sDiamond Model
Government
Analysis of Konya ICT Sector in Clustering Level with Diamond Model
A Survey on Firms in Konya Technopolis
Konya techno polis is chosen for assessing the situation of ICT industry and for analyzing the
competition in this industry.
4.Objectives and Methodology
Objective of the study is exploring the competitive advantage of software firms and detecting
their clustering level. In line with these objectives Porter’s Diamond Model is used as
analytical tool. Great majority of the surveyed ICT firms operate in Konya techno polis.
There are 62 software firms in the city, 53 of them are operating in technopolis. Sample of 34
firms surveyed by questionnaires which asks 20 Likert type questions based on Diamond
theory. The level of clustering is measured by scale of 10. The questionnaire is derived from
DTM methodology which is built up for clustering map of Turkey.
5.Results
5.1.Factor Conditions
Location of Firms: Selchuk University Centre of Technology Advancement was established
in TGB-1 and TGB-2 regions. The center has 332,000 meter square area. It locate besides
the Selcuk University Campus, its distance from centrum is 20 km, 8 km from Industry
district of Konya, 8 km from Konya Airport and 5 km from bus station. Elmas Blok
(Diamond Block) in the Selçuk Campus which has 2000 meter square area has been in use
since 2004. Surveyed ICT firms ranked 5th among 38 centers of Technology Advancement in
Turkey. The techno polis is operating by a governance principle and it has been established
by the cooperation of Selcuk University, Foundation of Selcuk University, Konya Chamber
299
of Industries, Konya Chamber of Commerce, Konya Commerce Market and the Directorate
of Konya Industrial District. It also supports the university-industry collaboration.
Firms operating in tecnopolis have opportunity to improve their technology and outputs by
utilizing infrastructure and knowledge base. Thus they are improving their competitiveness.
There are 109 firms in technopolis of which 64 firms engage in software developing
activities.
Due to ICT firms locate in technopolis, they have geographical proximity to public
institutions, university, R&D centers.
Human Capital:Selcuk University is one of the great universities in Turkey, with having 21
faculties, 6 institutes, 23 vocational schools, 1 conservatory, 42,000 students and about 3,500
academic staff. Workforce of surveyed ICT firms composed of 77 % has undergraduate
degrees, % 14 university students, and % 9 graduate students. It is found that employees have
access to sufficient technical equipment, but there is a need for support for basic research. In
marketing dimension, in domestic market and especially in foreign market, there is a lack of
expertise.
Physical Infrastructure: Firms use ICT infrastructure provided by techno polis. Besides they
have high quality work place and office environments with meeting halls, social facilities.
Firms can use university’s IT labs.
Information Infrastructure: University campus has 21 applied research centers. IT
organization BILMER provides information to the firms in the techno polis. Academic staff
supports the firms by consulting them for whenever they need further information. Thus
university-industry linkages are quite strong. In the information infrastructure university units
have important role on producing, transferring information to private businesses.
Social Facilities: Firms benefit from social amenities which have located in the university
campus. Posting and banking services are adequate to reduce transaction costs. Social
amenities in the campus are attractive for talent. There are recreational, societal, cattering and
health service amenities.
In line with survey results, the firms emphasize their demand for specialized talent, strategic
information, assessing consumer preferences, technology transfer and financial resources. A
Degree factor condition is observed medium level. Factor endowment is not adequate solely,
to improve competitive advantage. Thus factor conditions are not main advantage of the
surveyed firms.
5.2.Demand Conditions
ICT clustering cases in the literature show that demand conditions in the home market can
cause competitive power, if sophisticated home market buyers pressure firms to innovate
faster and to create more advanced products than those of competitors. Therefore both public
300
organizations and private sector should demand more specialized and innovative services.
For the case of Konya ICT, since public sector strategies are mostly administrated from
Ankara, access into public sector is not easy to develop services and goods for meeting public
demand. Thus there are frictions in public market. Private industry demand is not sufficiently
to pressure to innovate. Private sector demand mostly comes from health industry and share
of the manufacturing industries are low in market demand for software products. Because the
share of the industry demand is low, the firms do not incentive to improve competitive
advantage. Another disadvantage of the ICT cluster, it is organized to meet local demand so
that it has not supply capacity to meet national and foreign demand.
According the questionnaire results, demand conditions are sufficient in the regional
dimension. ICT cluster has regional competitive advantage. However, in the home market the
cluster is not an effective actor. This makes the firms disadvantageous in meeting global
market and competition conditions. Moreover, firms are not sufficient to serve desired level
for national auctions. Therefore demand conditions to gain competitive advantages can be
said weak for Konya ICT firms.
5.3.Firm Strategy and Rivalry
In the techno polis 89 % of firms are SME’s, remaining firms are branches of big software
firms. Firms are developing software for mainly health, automotive supply industry,
packaging industries which are regional industries. Firms get projects which are prepared in
cooperation with regional entities or firms. This project based works divert ICT sector to
work with regional industries. Some of the projects meet the national demands. Firms
declared that after-sell services, human resource for basic research and collaborative work
increase competition. In addition they believe that foreign investors will raise the total
quality. The firms which collaborate foreign firms as solution partners , report that the local
firms benefit from these kind of collaborating.
When examining firms strategy, rivalryand cooperation, the firms assert that they attribute
high importance on cooperation and collaboration. However in practice they practice medium
level cooperation. Because they locate on a shared place like techno polis, they purchase
services associatively and they are spatially proximate; they are expected to cooperate high
level. Medium level cooperation is an handicap for the ICT firms. In a cluster high level of
collaboration and high level of information sharing is crucial. Firms are aware of these
benefits but in practice collaboration is not at desired level. Firms perception about
collaboration supports the clustering thesis.
5.4.Related and Supporting Industries
When the external relations of the firms are inquired, below results are reached:
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Due to university-industry partnership, university students, graduate students and academic
staff have the opportunity to make applied research and this contributes to industry by
helping problem solving.
Although they attribute high value for university support in improving talent, technology
transfer, contributing cluster development; the current situation shows medium level linkages
about these functions.
Academic staff is working techno polis via only the project based duties.
Collaboration with the local university is inadequate and relations between universityindustry are not effective.
Despite the fact that close spatial proximity between university and firms, academic staff
could contribute in project based duties, so if the firm is not running on project based duties
they do not get support from academia. In addition, firms assert that they do not benefit from
brain power which is improved in university. Firms complain that the talented graduates do
not prefer these firms because they expect higher wages and different career plans. According
to them the talented workforce prefers other regions. They believe that low level of
corporatization is another reason for this talent preference.
5.5.Public Institutions
The relationship between ICT firms and public institutions are weaker than desired level. ICT
firms revealed that public institutions do not recognize them to collaborate. In this case they
feel lack of support of public and they are not defined in public administrative processes. This
situation is closely related to absence of legal framework and regulations. For instance,
support mechanism, subsidy conditions, and structural definition of the clusters are not
elucidated in legal institutions. Consequently ambiguities emerge when developing strategies
for clusters and creating relationships with public universities. ICT firms also face this kind
of ambiguity. Due to their project based works they have relationships between (TÜBİTAK),
TİGEM, TİDEP, Directorate of Improvement and Supporting SME’S (KOSGEB).
Analysis reveals that firms believe that cooperation with public institutions are not effective.
They believe that public-private partnership is highly important for gaining competitive
advantage. This situation arise questions on how the firms are familiar with clustering and
how do they involved in clustering efforts.
6.CONCLUSION
Evaluations and expectations show that core competency, marketing and advertising
activities rank first. Surveyed firms state that determining software activities as core
competence would cause competitive advantage in home market and foreign markets. Their
302
job requires advertising and information sharing among the firms, but trust is reported a
precondition for sharing information.
Owners and managers of ICT firms state that beyond the adequacy of amount of firms, they
think that financial support, planning, coordination are included in clustering attempts. They
also point out the importance of relationships with foreign firms and foreign investments in
the industry. They believe that high level of corporatization will contribute into cluster
making. Current situation they have not enough employees and they work on demanded
projects which have been seen irregular works. Members of the surveyed firms emphasize the
high return of investing in human resources in their industry. They believe that if the level of
collaboration increases, the efficiency of firms would also increase. It has been understood
that the firms’ beliefs on cooperation are strong and their tendency to cooperate is high.
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Comparison of linear regression and neural network models forecasting tourist arrivals
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Selcuk Cankurt, Abdulhamit Subasi
International Burch University, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies,
Francuske Revolucije bb. Ilidza, Sarajevo, 71000, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
E-mail:[email protected]
Abstract
This paper develops statistical and machine learning methods for estimating tourist arrivals
which is one of the donnée for planning the sustainable tourism development. Tourism is
arguably one of the world's largest and fastest growing industries. Sustainable tourism
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development is one of the most promising generators of the sustainable economic
development. Realistic tourism projections based on accurate tourism forecasting contribute
much for the sustainable tourism development. The challenge of the planning and developing
sustainable tourism is to see as the complex paradigm but one of the starting points is the
accurate forecasting tourist arrivals. In this study, linear regression and neural network
multilayer perceptron (MLP) implementations are considered to make multivariate tourism
forecasting for Turkey. Comparison of forecasting performances in terms of correlation
coefficient (R), relative absolute error (RAE) and root relative squared error (RRSE)
measurements shows that MLP model for regression gives a better performance.
Keywords: Tourism forecasting; Tourism demand modelling; Time series; Linear regression;
Neural networks; Multilayer perceptron; Multivariate tourism forecasting.
1.INTRODUCTION
Tourism demand forecasts are of great economic value both for the public and private sector.
Tourism products, such as unfilled airline seats, unoccupied hotel rooms, and unused
facilities, cannot be stocked because of their perishable nature (Archer, 1987). Therefore,
accurately forecasting tourism demand has great importance to the sectors concerned with
tourism, in order to accurate and efficient plans (Petropoulos, Nikolopoulos, & V., 2005; Pai
& Hong, 2005).
According to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), travel and tourism is the biggest
industry in the world. Since 1992 tourism sector is the largest industry and has the largest
employer in the world (Aslan, Alper, Kaplan, Muhittin, Kula, & Ferit, 2008).
Turkey's economy grew an average of 6.0% per year in last decade. Currently Turkey is in
16th place on the list of the largest economies of the world and the fastest growing economy
among members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The new goals of Turkish tourism were to establish an efficient tourism sector with high
international competitiveness while preserving and enhancing of the country’s natural and
historical environment and cultural heritage in a sustainable manner (Ministry of Culture,
2007).
The statistical methods such as linear regression are suitable for data having seasonal or trend
patterns, while artificial neural techniques are also efficient for data which are influenced by
the special case, like promotion or extreme crisis (Efendigil, Önüt, & Kahraman, 2009).
One major application area of ANNs is forecasting (Gooijer & J., 2006); see (Zhang, Patuwo,
& Hu, 1998) and (Hippert, Pedreira, & Souza, 2001). Generally the ANNs are increasingly
used to forecast demands for tourism (Law & Au, 1999; Law R. , 2000). (Pattie & Snyder,
1996) used a back-propagation neural network model with two hidden layers to forecast
305
monthly overnight stays in US national park systems. (Law & Au, 1999) presented a feedforward neural network with six input and one output nodes to forecast arrivals in Hong
Kong. For more application area of ANN, see (Al-Saba & El-Amin, 1999), (Beccali, Cellura,
Lo Brano, & Marvuglia, 2004), (Hobbs, Helman, Jitprapaikulsarn, Konda, & Maratukulam,
1998), (Sozen, Arcaklioglu, & Ozkaymak, 2005), (Sabuncuoglu, 1998), (Vellido, Lisboa, &
Vaughan, 1999), (Wong, Lai, & Lam, 2000), (Ayata, Cam, & Yıldız, 2007), (Efendigil, Önüt,
& Kahraman, 2009).
According to the brief review of literature especially related to tourism demands approaches,
this study attempts to develop a multivariate linear regression model and a general regression
neural network model for forecasting the number of the tourists coming to Turkey.
2.THEORETICAL BACKGROUND
2.1.Linear regression
Multiple linear regression (MLR) attempts to model the linear relationship called the
regression function between a dependent variable and more than one independent variables as
different from simple linear models with one independent variable. The dependent variable is
sometimes also called the predictand, and the independent variables is called the predictors.
The model for multiple linear regression, given n observations, is
for i = 1,2, ... n.
value of
predictor,
coefficient on the
the intercept, also known as the bias in machine learning,
predictor,
total number of predictors,
predictand,
error.
2.2 MLP Approach
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) (also usually preferred Neural Networks NNs) are
computing structures inspired from the biological neural networks. A neural network is made
of the interconnected processing units (usually called neurons). They have the ability of
learning by adjusting the strength of the interconnections which can be achieved by altering
the values called weights through the input data (Haykin S. , 1999). Neuron sums the
weighted inputs and conveys the net input through an activation function in order to
normalize and produce a result (Jones, 2008).
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The multilayer network architecture consists of an input layer, two or more hidden layers, and
one output layer. Activation function is used for both the hidden and output nodes. While the
sigmoid function can be used to squash the output of the neuron to
in the hidden
layer in order to introduce the non-linearity to NN, linear activation function must use in
output layer to predict the numerical values in the regression problems. MLP is trained with
supervised learning include the Perceptron learning algorithm, Least-Mean-Squares learning,
and Backpropagation. Backpropagation is one of the most popular approximation approaches
for training the multilayer feedforward neural networks based on the Widrow–Hoff training
rule (Bishop, 1995; Haykin S. , 1999; Aslanargun, Mammadov, Yazici, & Yolacan, 2007).
3.EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
A total of 31 models were obtained on the basis of two regression models and their
corresponding parameter selection which are three of them belong to linear regression models
and remaining 28 ones belong to MLP models. Those models were evaluated with the
validation data through three forecasting accuracy measures: correlation coefficient (R),
relative absolute error (RAE), root relative squared error (RRSE).
Three linear regression models were examined on the basis of attribute selection parameter:
none, M5 and greedy methods. It has been shown that the linear regression model with
greedy attribute selection parameter has the best accuracy when you compare with the other
linear regression models but also the worst when you compare with MLP regression models.
According to result of our linear regression model: 25 attributes don’t affect the results —
WEKA builds the regression function by considering the attributes which only statistically
contribute to the accuracy of the model (measured in
). It will not consider the attributes
that don't contribute the regression equation. So this regression model is telling us that whole
sale price of Turkey, consumer prize index of Canada, Denmark, Spain, Russia, number of
German, France, Syrian, Poland, Romanian, Norwegian, Switzerlandian visitors, Exchange
rate of Russia, Canada, Switzerland don’t affect the arrivals to Turkey. Estimated positive
values (coefficients) tell us as value of those attributes increase number of the total visitors.
Estimated negative values (coefficients) reduce the result — linear regression model is telling
us that the bigger negative value is, the lower the total coming tourist. This can be seen by the
negative coefficient in front of the variables.
Table 1 Overall performance of linear regression and MLP methods
Model
Correlation
coefficient
Relative
Root
relative
absolute error squared error
Linear Regression
0.978
18.73%
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20.70%
MLP Regression
0.9874
14.17%
15.86%
Figure 1 Comparison of MLP and linear regression methods
Among the MLP regression models presented, the best forecasting accuracy was the MLP
model composed of three hidden layers with the neuron numbers of 30, 15 and 10
(abbreviated as 30-15-10). In this model the learning rate 0.03, momentum 0.8, epoch 500
values are used and backpropagation training algorithm, sigmoid activation function for
hidden nodes and unthresholded linear activation function for output node are employed. It
showed R 0.9874, RAE 14.17% and RRSE 15.86% accuracy results.
Results obtained from the experiments in this study, support the discussions in the literature
reviews topic of this paper. As seen in the table (1) apparently, machine learning MLP
regression model have better performance than statistical linear regression model.
4.CONCLUSIONS
This study presents a multivariate time-series forecasting to predict the tourism demand to
Turkey by employing linear regression and multilayer perceptron methods. The real data sets
respect to Turkey and its top ranked 24 tourism clients of the countries are used to compare
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the performance of the those methods and to find out the achievement of them on forecasting
tourism demand to Turkey. Comparison of the experimental results among linear regression
and MLP demonstrated that the MLP method had better forecasting accuracy. Experimental
results showed that the MLP model can produce lower prediction error and higher prediction
accuracy and outperformed the linear regression model. According to the experiments, it can
be concluded that the tuned MLP method with the multivariate time series has enough
satisfactory to forecast the tourism demand to Turkey.
In this study, linear regression model with greedy attributes selection method and MLP
(30:15:10) models have shown better performance when compared with other corresponding
models in forecasting the number of monthly tourist arrivals to Turkey owing to the RAE and
the RRSE measures.
Unfortunately, there is no certain or systematic method to select the appropriate model. Our
studies showed that among the methods mentioned above MLP regression has better
performance but still we need numerous experiments to evaluate and find out the most
suitable MLP regression model which can be employed on the multivariate time series
forecasting.
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Archer, B. (1987). Demand Forecasting and Estimation. Travel, tourism, and hospitality
research. A handbook for managers and researchers pp. 77-85 .
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Turkey. Energy Conversion and Management, 48, 1472–1479.
Beccali, M., Cellura, M., Lo Brano, V., & Marvuglia, A. (2004). Forecasting daily urban
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Efendigil, T., Önüt, S., & Kahraman, C. (2009). A decision support system for demand
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Pai, P.-F., & Hong, W.-C. (2005). An Improved Neural Network Model in Forecasting
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of the art. International Journal of Forecasting, 14, 35– 62.
Informatisation of the Judiciary in BiH: Success Factors
Nedim Fisekovic, Meliha Handzic
International Burch University, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Abstract
Informatisation of the judicial system covers all aspects of information and communication
technology (ICT), including: equipping the courts with modern information technology
equipment (desktop computers, servers, and printers), setting up a local area network (LAN)
and wide area network (WAN), establishing a system of electronic mail for the judicial
institutions, developing a system for case management system (CMS and TCMS), developing
and establishing judicial web sites (web portal), computer education of all employees in the
courts and prosecution offices, internet access for all users in the judiciary and many more.
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In Bosnia and Herzegovina, all of the above activities have been implemented by the HJPC
(High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council)in pursuit of European standards, with donor
support. Since first contributions from USAID and ICITAP, further contributions from EU,
Norway, Spain, Netherlands and Sweden contributed to the project success by providing ICT
solutions, staff, training and continued development.
Full informatisation of the judicial system will enable the full automation of courts and
prosecutors' offices; also all employees in the courts will have direct access to relevant
information, documents and services provided by the courts and prosecutors offices and
citizens will have access to their personal court cases over the Internet.
Keywords: judicial system, informatisation, Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.INTRODUCTION
In the introductory section of the final project report (HJPC, 2011), its authors claim that high
quality and modern judicial services, capable of answering all of society’s needs, cannot be
achieved without information and communication technology (ICT). They also state that
Informatisation of Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) judiciary has been a long process, but
today, the state of the art judicial information system in BiH is the most thorough and modern
of any country in the region. In the end, they conclude that the project brings immense
benefits for the delivery of justice.
The report reminds us that before the introduction of ICT reform in the judicial system, courts
and prosecutors’ offices had very few computers that operated without licensed software.
Consequently, developments in cases were logged manually and all information had to be
retrieved from mountains of paper files.
The situation became even worse as a result of the 1990s conflict, with increasing number of
complex court cases on one side, and with out-dated and inefficient practices on the other.
Such environment threatened to exacerbate the backlog problem even further. ICT was
necessary to make possible a dramatic change in the working operations of the courts.
2.INFORMATISATION PROJECT DESCRIPTION
312
A cutting-edge and tailor-made ICT project for the BiH judiciary was launched by the
country’s High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council (HJPC). The scope of the project of
informatisation of the judiciary covers all aspects of the continuity of mass and systematic
introduction of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in the courts and
prosecutors' offices across the country, including hardware, software, application programs,
and the use of human resources, control of relevant process changes and other related
business processes (ICJ, 2004).
The ultimate goal of informatisation of the judiciary in Bosnia and Herzegovina is "EJustice". This goal corresponds to the objectives set by the European Union in terms of
creating a technical platform that allows access to existing or future information systems at
national and international levels in all areas of the judiciary.
The main expectation from establishing an electronic judiciary is that the use of information
and communication technologies would significantly improve the efficiency of courts and
prosecutors at the state level, and the courts and prosecutors in the FBiH and the RS. Thus,
among other things, the current huge backlog accumulation would be significantly reduced,
and new items could be processed in time.
In general, the business processes in the courts are considered suitable for intensive and
effective use of ICT tools and these tools can be used to significantly enhance and improve
business processes in every respect. So far, the results of the process of informatisation of
judiciary include the following elements (HJPC, 2011):
HJPC established ICT (Information and communications technology) department
All courts in judiciary have employed ICT experts
WAN network connects 85 institutions in the area of the country
LAN networks in 85 institutions connects more than 100 servers and 5,000 workstations
Case Management System (CMS) enabled the complete automation of work processes in the
judiciary
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Impartiality served through the assignment of cases to judges
Transparency of the registers changes and actions
More effective communication between the courts in the judiciary
Prevented loss of part of the file
Quick and easy access to information for clients and lawyers
-
Web Portal of Justice of BiH provides easy access to information
Online database of the Judicial Documentation Centre provides access to the legal
practice of judges, prosecutors and associates.
Internet access is provided for all users in judiciary
The most significant achievement is the introduction of case management in all courts and
prosecutors in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Judicial institutions are linked in a common wide
area network and a judicial web portal is established that contains the web pages of judicial
institutions. Citizens and their legal representatives now have access to court files online
(over the internet).
Thanks to the activities undertaken so far to establish an electronic justice the work processes
in the courts and prosecutors' offices have been promoted, and transparency of their work
increased. Applying information and communication technology has accelerated flow and
exchange of information and created technical prerequisites for the exchange of information
between judicial and prosecutorial registers on the one hand and electronic records kept by
other state and agencies on the other.
Since the good results of this project showed the justification of investment in information
communication technology strategy for justice sector reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina,
continuation of the started activities is anticipated. Informatisation of Justice is included in
the activities outlined in the Action Plan implementing the European Partnership with Bosnia
and Herzegovina.
3.PROJECT SUCCESS FACTORS
Project management literature often reports project failures, projects completed out of budget,
time or with reduced scope. For example, the controversial Standish group results and Chaos
survey from 2003 revealed that only 30% of projects were delivered on the original scope and
agreement (Hastie 2006). Therefore, the successful completion of the studied informatisation
project makes it especially interesting case for exploration.
In general, good management of projects and people working on them is considered essential
for its success (Valacich and Schneider, 2010). Most organisations appear to be well aware of
these facts and tend to pay attention to necessary roles and responsibilities in development
teams. However, planning is often performed and requirements defined that do not meet
314
stakeholders’ expectations. Although various causes of project success and failure have been
the subject or prior research (Haughey, 2010; Prabhakar, 2008), there has been a little attempt
to define the criteria for success, report systematic research of the factors that cause project
success or failure, or provide deep insights into these successes and failures (Frese and
Sauter, 2003).
Therefore, this study will attempt to identify the most important factors that contributed to the
success of the project of Informatisation of the judicial system in BiH. More specifically, the
study examined (i) people, (ii) process and (iii) resource related aspects of the project from
the perspective of IT professionals who participated in the project. With respect to people,
project managers’ and team members’ competencies, training and mentoring were examined.
Regarding process, various aspects of project planning, development and implementation
were explored. Finally, the study examined the financial resources and client inputs provided
to support the project.
4.RESEARCH METHOD
Descriptive survey was selected as a preferred method for the current research. This method
enabled systematic gathering of quantitative data from a sample of individuals for the
purposes of describing the attributes of the larger population of which the individuals were
members (Glock, 1967). The survey form was designed to include a total of 22 questions.
The first 4 questions were about personal information of each respondent, while the
remaining 18 questions addressed various people, process and resource related aspects of the
project.
The subjects were 70 IT personnel in positions of system administrators, database
administrators and system developers from different regions of BiH. Most were experienced
professionals. Among these, 26% were highly experienced having spent more than 5 years on
the project, 63% spent between 3-5 years on the project and only 11% were novices with less
than 3 years experience on the project.
The questionnaires were created and distributed using Google docs (https://docs.google.com).
Online questionnaires represent a convenient way of conducting surveys, as they enable
crossing of time and geographic barriers, and are cost effective. In addition, Google docs is
an excellent online tool that helps create and manage online surveys easily. In responding to
the survey, the participants rated their opinions about various project aspects on a 7-point
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Likert scale. Their responses were collected, encoded and analysed using MS Excel
descriptive statistics.
5.RESULTS
The results shown in Table 1 indicate that all aspects of the project were positive. This was
demonstrated by all average scores greater than 4 (out of 7). Responses were negative in that
they show that there is room for further improvement. This is demonstrated by all scores
lesser than 7 (out of 7). These score also point to major weaknesses and obstacles.
Table 1: Mean respondents’ scores of various project aspects
Project aspect
score
Testing Tools
5.03
Quality Assurance (Code inspections, design reviews, testing etc)
5.13
Training and Mentoring
5.11
Project Manager's Competence
5.44
Project Manager's authority to make decisions during the development
5.40
Team Members Competence
5.34
Team Members influence the project & the flexibility to create a good design
5.27
Postmortem Analysis (Lessons learned from previous projects)
5.19
Project Scope Definition
5.17
Support from Senior Management
5.09
Planning
5.13
Communication System and Procedures
5.31
Timeliness/Relevance of Project
5.34
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Level of involvement the developers have in estimating timeliness/relevance
5.34
Progress Monitoring
5.27
Clarity of Project Objectives and Goals
4.93
Requirement Statements/Specifications
5.11
Development Methodology/Process
5.23
Development Tools
4.86
Focus on New/Evolving Technologies
5.09
Level of User/Client Involvement
4.69
Budget and Resources
4.61
Level of client input/involvement and financial resources were assessed as the least satisfying
project aspects. It is therefore not surprising that one of the weakest planning aspects related
to the project was "Clarity of Project Goals and Objectives". The lack of client involvement
and thus the lack of clear project goals was often mentioned in the literature as the prime
cause of failure. However, it appears that high level of project manager’s competence and
authority was crucial in overcoming such weaknesses in this project.
Indeed, a comparative analysis of people, process (planning, development, implementation)
and resource related aspects of the project clearly shows that people were the most important
factor contributing to the success of this project. Competent IT personnel managed to deliver
successful project outcomes despite the lesser than required financial and client resources and
with less than adequate supporting development tools.
317
people
resources
implementation
5.40
5.20
5.00
4.80
4.60
4.40
4.20
planing
development
Figure 1. Comparative analysis of project success factors
6.CONCLUSIONS
In this study, we examined the main factors that contributed to the success of the juditiary
informatisation project in BiH. The results suggest that human factors (particularly project
manager's competency and authority) are the most important success factors, followed by
process related characteristics, followed by supporting resources. These results confirm the
proposition that knowledge is the most important capital for development in the knowledge
economy.
However, these findings need to be interpreted with caution due to a number of limitations.
The study examined success from the developers' rather than users' perspective. The
measures used demonstrated good reliability, but they are not accepted published scales. Data
was collected in BiH. The question is whether these results would hold in a different culture.
Therefore, further research is recommended that would replicate and extend the current
investigation to other contexts, systems and subjects in order to verify and generalise these
findings. Future research is also encouraged to develop new research models and variables
aimed at enriching our collective understanding of the project success factors.
REFERENCES
318
Frese, R. and Sauter, V. (2003) Project Success and Failure: What is Success, What is
Failure, and How Can You Improve Your Odds for Success?
Glock, C.Y. (1967) Survey Research in the Social Sciences. Russell Sage Foundation, New
York.
Hastie, S. (2006) What Makes Information Systems Projects Successful?
HJPC (High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council) of Bosnia and Herzegovina (2011)
Informatisation of the judiciary in Bosnia and Herzegovina 2004-2011.
Haughey, D. (2010) The Four Levels of Project Success, Project Smart 2000-2010.
IJC (Independent Judicial Commission) – Head Office Sarajevo (2004) Development of
Information and Communication Technology in the Cours and Prosecutors’ Offices of Bosnia
and Herzegovina.
Prabhakar, G.P. (2008) What is Project Success: A Literature Review, International Journal
of Business and Management, 3-10.
Valacich, J. and Schneider, C. (2010) Information Systems Today (4th ed), Pearson
Education.
Advanced Techniques And Application Of Learning Content Management Systems In
Enterprises
Šemsudin Plojović1, Muzafer Saračević2,Enis Ujkanović3, Suad Bećirović3
1Department of Economics, International university of Novi Pazar, Serbia
2Faculty of Science and Mathematics, University of Niš, Serbia
3Department of Economics, International university of Novi Pazar, Serbia
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E-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]
[email protected]
Abstract
Several organizations are looking for a way how to manage the overall job performance of
their employees, regardless of where the "working age" they are. Learning and competence
development, along with management skills is noticeable development, therefore, that
organizations want to maximize the capacity of its staff, and with them the skills that the new
business conditions become necessary. In the process management capabilities and potentials
occupy a key role in content management systems learning (LMS). One capability that users
LMS never had this kind should be developed. In this way, the organization gained greater
success using his own internal resources.
Keywords: Business LMS, e-Learning, LCMS, Virtual Classroom, CMS.
1.INTRODUCTION
Learning Management System (LMS) is a key application in the model of e-Learning.
Includes a set of features designed for the "delivery", monitoring, reporting and
administration of learning content, student progress, and interaction of students and mentors
and students together. Serious e-Learning system cannot be imagined without the complex
software. LMS can be used in a very simple system, and the highly complex enterprise-wide
distributed environments, such as public administration, large companies and the like. LMS is
software for managing learning events organized, including online, virtual classroom.
The focus of LMS is to manage employees, track their progress and performance in all types
of training. Learning and competence development, along with management skills is a
noticeable development in addition to education there is a niche, therefore, that organizations
want to maximize the capacity of its staff, and with them the skills that the new business
conditions become necessary. One capability that users LMS never had this kind should be
developed. In this way, the organization gained greater success using his own inner resources
[1]. Learning Management System (LMS) is software that allows you to fully administer the
global learning process of employees of enterprises. Some research has found that 60% of
current LMS, with monitoring of the achievements of its users, and 38% giving timely
feedback and have a plan to boost performance.
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LMS for registration of employees, enables the courses in the catalog of courses, description
of data on employment, and enables reporting on completed. In addition, LMS is typically
designed to be operated courses that deliver different publishers and providers of services.
LMS is usually not included in its configuration authoring tools for creating educational
content. LMS system manufacturers typically offer additional tools to create content that is
flexible for employees or teams. Reuse a wide course (one course can be delivered to
multiple employees, the monitoring of achievements).
2.ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY
EMPLOYMENT
APPLICATIONS
IN
EDUCATION
AND
Learning Content Management System is a system for creating, storing, preparation and
delivery of e-Learning content in the form of learning objects. Search new LCMS and
compared to the LMS (least according to SCORM-in) is a Automated Authoring Application
and applications for automated authoring process. This application automates authoring
(content creation process) introducing authors with templates and storyboarding capabilities
that include the principles of instructional design. Using these templates, authors can develop
a whole course on the basis of the existing buildings in the repository, creating new facilities
or a combination of both principles. Content management system learning (LCMS) enables
management of creating, storing, using and re-using content for learning within a firm or
organization. Content learning is structured in the form of particles of knowledge - learning
objects or learning objects [4].
Structure LCMS system may be viewed as an upgrade structure LMS systems, which add a
content management system (CMS - Content Management System) and re-usable learning
objects (RLO - Reusable Learning Objects). The term originated from the CMS on-line
publishing industry, where such systems enable the creation and administration of various
content (articles, reports, pictures, banners and the like) [5].
The CMS system article is entirely made up of a number of particles of knowledge, called
content component, whose level is guaranteed, and reuse. One and the same component may
be involved in numerous articles and it can be read by many readers. If you bring it in
connection with the work, then we talk about re-usable learning objects, which can figurate
content in different domain knowledge and can be delivered to different students.
321
Figure 1: Management in Custom Portal
CMS is a software for effective creation, development and content management web site in
internet, intranet and extranet use variants. It is designed for large numbers of business users
to efficiently and managing web content as a way of presenting the entire business firms and
business activities on the Internet.
Characteristics of CMS in a business environment:



322
Better information and communication between business functions and staff CMS is used as an Internet information portal for employees in the company. Applied
in this way provides a comprehensive and timely information of employees and the
ability to transfer information to the clients of the company.
Each employee can participate in creating and updating the site - CMS allows the
inclusion of "ordinary users' computers to develop and update the site with no
previous training to work with specialized tools. In particular it is important that
marketing personnel and other sectors of the company without hiring professionals
such as web designers and developers the content, create and modify hand, real and
connects the menus and links etc.. In addition to users, LINK CMS is available to help
system (Help).
(Only) quality control - CMS allows the user at any time to have an insight into the
condition of the structural and functional checks of all the connections. In this way,
the user shall establish the correctness of its procedures and controls the quality of
entered element. CMS allows the creation of material for later publication on the
network with the previous review of the author, and responsible person.

Integration with databases and Office applications - basically a CMS is reliable
and financially viable MySQL database that provides great benefits for the entry, use
and organization of stored materials. Content created in some of the Office
applications in a simple way of being integrated into the content of the website which
is operated by CMS.
It is important that these systems can be applied in a very simple system, and the highly
complex enterprise-wide distributed environments, such as public administration, large
companies and the like [3].
3.BUSINESS LMS
LMS in the future should be the basic business applications in large companies (the so-called
Trade LMS) in order to increase worker efficiency, facilitate the decision making and
automation of work processes. These LMS's need to manage knowledge and competences
and cooperation employees. Cooperation employees is established through virtual
conferences, forums, chat rooms, blogs. Business LMS should provide career management, to
be of assistance in employment, to manage the WBT and CBT in the companies.
Workplace paid attention to education and training at a time, in fact in the work environment.
In the context in which to improve workforce skills and competency for rapid change in the
labor market and business, e-learning has proven to be very popular as an effective solution
[2]. The main beneficiaries of the ICT sector now meet 60% of its needs in training for
teaching e-learning. This form of training has the advantage of organizations that cannot bear
the cost and waste of time for training in the classroom. Further efforts are needed to small
organizations understand, plan and use e-learning in line with their requirements and needs.
Figure 2: benefits of LMS
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LMS integration with ERP and CRM. ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) system that
enables the integration of engineering, customer service, planning, manufacturing, finance,
human resources through a single facility or multiple locations. CRM (Customer Relationship
Management) system that helps manage customer relationship [1].
Grouping (integration) of organizations that use the same LMS, brings many benefits in
implementing the education of its participants. This is particularly reflected in lower total cost
of training, the time to create competence and provides a consistency of delivery activities
encompassed the needs of education. What is the LMS needs to become usable in integrated
systems is the necessity of moving on to more advanced levels, in fact LCMS (Learning
Content Management System), a system where much attention is given to patterning and
evolution of educational content, taking the principles of instructional design. According to
the data 60% of current LMS and LCMS has a function.
4.APPLICATION OF VIRTUAL CLASSROOM IN ENTERPRISES
Virtual classrooms make it possible to develop and enrich the entire range of generic skills,
users such as:




group work and team work (so as to define roles in teams, solve critical problems
and discuss the team). Virtual classrooms have a separate "rooms" where users can
meet and work on solving the tasks set them.
problem solving and consideration of various solutions for solutions through
discussion that takes place in the group. In the group may consider different ideas for
solving the problem and try different strategies to solve,
communication skills - asking questions and giving answers, the fact that users are
required to take a stand in certain situations, to agree or to express their disagreement,
to explain his position,
effective use of new technologies - users get used to new technologies used in
different activities.
Figure 3: Collaboration in enterprises
324
Characteristics:




Usually includes live audio and video communication among employees. Participants
use the microphone and headphones (headsets) and communicate with your voice.
There are many free tools that can be used for the virtual classroom.
They can include joint panel to display text and drawing sketches. Lecturer and
participants can work together to search the Web ling and joint visits to sites.
The employer may exchange files with users. Users can join and transfer images from
a Web camera when the network capacity to provide. There is a possibility that the
presentation include guests from abroad, which is a very good way to include experts
in the field. May include "Break out" rooms, the environments in which small groups
can work together.
Sessions can be archived and remember to be reviewed later. These technologies are
increasingly integrated into the LMS systems (for example Blackboard, Moodle or
Janisons) or CMS systems.
5.M-LEARNING IN ENTERPRISES AND SOCIAL NETWORKING
The future of e-learning, m-learning (mobile learning) - learning anytime and anywhere.
Thoughts on learning through mobile, wireless internet and so on. The future of education
lies in portable devices, primarily mobile phones, iPods, PDAs and laptop computers. In the
near future, e-learning systems will be integrated into mobile technologies such as mobile
phones, handheld scanners, tablet PCs, Kindle, IPAD and devices that no longer exist. In the
long run, e-Learning System (LMS), will be integrated in almost all electronic devices and
machines [6].
Social networking increase in virtual social interaction on a global scale, is increasingly
growing, creating a space in which to share information, knowledge and experience. The
newly created space is often the target of testing needs, opinions and ways of organizing as in
other sectors, as well as organizing training. Social cooperation is becoming an indispensable
way of gathering and management's LMS, where the learning experience, knowledge and a
variety of valuable information placed in the lap of social interaction.
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Figure 4: World-Wide Social Networking Users
The newly arrived participants in this form of communication, very quickly learn from their
domesticated counterparts, a new generation growing up in this virtual social environment.
What is the big problem is, what is expected of the LMS and what is expected from the only
form of social learning, which is present in social networking. In social learning, learning is
largely informal character.
The challenge is to design (design) LMS, which significantly by using social interaction
through collaborative learning, learning, provides a formal sense. For now, many of the
existing LMS is not a satisfactory level of use of Web 2.0 technologies. Some numerical
indicators of the situation with existing LMS products are 42% let index, 20% use blogs, 17%
of a wiki page.
Strategy for social e-education include:
1. Co-authorship - Users use Web tools to generate and edit together some content.
2. Collaboration in problem solving and collaborative research - Users work
together to find solutions to target problems and select strategies to access the
following tasks. Social software tools enable users to easily communicate in order to
cooperate, be it in textual form or in direct conversation.
3. Tacit knowledge sharing with others - through communication, cooperation in the
project, through research and conversations users have the opportunity to share their
opinions with others and to participate in adopting common conclusions. Social,
networks also allow users to express their specific views, to challenge their opinions
and others to participate in building a common attitude and reach consensus.
4. Monitoring-employed, professionals, experts and experienced users can involve the
social network in occasionally as an instructor who will guide users in the learning
process.
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All these software will, as more time is devoted to adoption, as well as simplification of
administrative and user interfaces, lead to an increase in simultaneous amateurism (level of
knowledge management systems and content creation) and widespread use in all areas of
education (school education institutions and in enterprises) as in the domain business since
learning can easily be replaced with the term "information" or "relationships with clients."
The future will be different for everyone ranging from hairdressing shops for dogs, medical
clinics... until of course, an organization that has to do with learning, as delivered by each
individual contribution and use for themselves.
6.CONCLUSION
We can conclude that the appearance of more powerful portable communications devices,
resulting in the need for future LMS aims to accessibility, independent of the dominant or
pre-defined platform for access to educational content and educational activities. The
increasing spread of virtual social interaction, gets a significant role in creating applications
that are supported by the LMS. In social interaction, consumers are increasingly sharing
resources for learning, as well as their ideas and opinions through discussions, presentations,
blogs, comments, tools for this purpose...
In this way, learning moves from the corporate model to the global, and therefore the
organization LMS need the same adjustment. Accordingly, we conclude that any existing
LMS needs to be developed and improved.
Flexibility and adaptability LMS individual and social community, whether real or virtual,
individually or through collaborative learning, accompanied by educational standards, is one
of the main objectives which aims LMS future. Accessible to large repositories of learning
objects, monitoring of standards for the creation of compatible content an increase of
structural, as opposed to instructional content, forcing non linear ways of learning, follow-up
of new IT is the default.
REFERENCES
Ally, M. (2004), Foundations of educational theory for online learning, Theory and Practice
of Online Learning, Athabasca University.
Mašović S., Saračević M., Kamberović H., Međedović E. (2011), Modern trends in higher
education and the future of e-learning, ITRO-conference: Information technology and
development of education, pp.321-326, Technical Faculty "Mihajlo Pupin", University of
Novi Sad, Serbia.
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Međedovic E., Saračević M., Bisevac E., Mašović S., Kamberovic H.(2011), System
Infrastructure for E-Learning on University of Novi Pazar, 10th International Scientific Professional Symposium INFOTEH-JAHORINA.
Saračević M., Međedović E., Mašović S., Selimović F., Kamberović H. (2011), Application
learning content management systems, virtual classroom and m-learning in enterprises, ICT
for SME2011 - Information and Communication Technologies for Small and Medium
Enterprises, ISBN 978-86-7672-140-5, Technical Faculty "Mihajlo Pupin", University of
Novi Sad.
Saračević M., Međedović E., Mašović S., Selimović F., Kamberović H. (2011), Sistemi za
upravljanje sadržajem učenja kao podrška zaposlenim u preduzećima,
9. Međunarodna
naučno-stručna konferencija - Na putu ka dobu znanja, Fakultet za menadžment, UDC005.94, ISBN978-86-85067-31-0, COBISS.SR-ID: 266277895, Novi Sad.
Saračević M., Mašović S., Selimović F., Novalić F. (2011), Unapređenje informisanosti,
komunikacije i obrazovanja zaposlenih u agrobiznis sektoru i način realizacije primenom
LCMS-a, Naučna konferencija - Agrobiznis2011, u okviru projekta “Bolja saradnja za bolju
budućnost“, Univerzitet u Novom Pazaru.
A Hybrid Digital Video Watermarking Method Based on DCT and DWT
Haldun Sarnel, Kadir Ünal
Dokuz Eylül University, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, İzmir, Turkey
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
Digital video watermarking is one of the solutions for copyright protection of digital
multimedia data and draws great attention of both researchers and digital video owners. In
this work, a new hybrid digital video watermarking method which uses the discrete cosine
transform (DCT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is proposed. Each frame is processed
with one of the DCT and DWT methods or a combination of them, half of a frame by the
DCT method and the other half by the DWT method. Selection of the watermarking for each
frame in the video is determined randomly. The proposed method has undergone several
attacks in order to check its robustness and compare to the DCT and DWT methods. The
proposed hybrid method including a watermarking diversity throughout the video improves
robustness against attacks.
328
Keywords: Digital video watermarking, discrete cosine transform (DCT), discrete wavelet
transform (DWT), copyright protection.
1. INTRODUCTION
Production and distribution of digital multimedia data have become much easier with the
rapid growth of the internet and other digital technologies, and consequently they can reach a
large number of people in a short time. On the other hand, this introduces copyright
protection problem for the digital multimedia data with a legal owner. To prove the copyright
of digital data, some methods must be applied on the original digital data whatever it is text,
audio, image or video. Digital watermarking methods have been proposed for solving
copyright protection problems (Cox et al. 2002). A secret message what is called a watermark
is embedded to a digital data with a secret key. This process is called digital watermarking.
The watermark can be a random number sequence, copyright messages, ownership
identifiers, binary or gray level images, or other digital data formats. A digital watermarking
method provides the copyright owner with proving his/her ownership by extracting and
revealing the embedded watermark from the digital data in the case of an illegal usage of the
digital data. The original digital data after watermarking can be distributed in a medium and
may receive some manipulations and attacks, intentionally, or unintentionally, so as to
degrade the watermark to disappear. Ideally, the watermark must remain intact, or safely
extractable after the digital data has undergone some attacks to be able to prove the
ownership.
Image and video watermarking methods can be classified in two groups, spatial domain and
frequency domain methods. Spatial domain methods are based on modification of pixels
values in embedding stage of the watermarking. These methods are very simple and have low
computational cost, but are vulnerable to attacks and watermark can be easily distorted.
Frequency domain methods are based on modification of frequency coefficients. The original
content is transformed to frequency domain and coefficients in frequency domain are used to
embed and recover the watermark. The most common transforms are the discrete cosine
transform (Cox et al. 1997, Busch et al. 1999) and the discrete wavelet transform (Xia et al.
1997, Kundur and Hatzinakos 1998). The frequency domain methods are more robust and
have more computational complexity. Hartung and Girod (1999) described a method of
watermarking into both compressed and uncompressed MPEG-2 videos by modifying
selected DCT coefficients. Langelaar and Lagendijk (2001) proposed a watermarking method
that divides the video into groups of blocks and further divides the blocks into groups. A
single watermark bit is embedded into selected DCT coefficients based on their energies
within the groups. Chetan and Raghavendra (2010) proposed a DWT-based video
watermarking scheme that embeds different parts of a single watermark into different scenes
of a video after detecting scene changes.
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In this work, a new hybrid digital video watermarking method which uses the discrete cosine
transform (DCT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is proposed. The watermark is
divided to sub pieces and these pieces are embedded to frames. Each frame is processed with
one of the DCT and DWT methods or a combination of them, half of a frame by the DCT
method and the other half by the DWT method. The proposed hybrid method has undergone
several attacks in order to check its robustness and compare to the DCT and DWT methods.
2. TRANSFORM –BASED DIGITAL VIDEO WATERMARKING
2.1 DCT-based Watermarking
The DCT coefficients D(u, v) of a N x N block p( x, y) in an image are computed as follows.
D(u, v)  C (u )C (v)
N 1 N 1
 (2 x  1)u   (2 y  1)v 
 cos

2N
2N
 

 p( x, y) cos
x 0 y 0
C (u ) 
1
N
for u  0,
C (u ) 
2
N
(1)
for u  1,2, , N  1
The frequency bands of an 8x8 DCT block are shown in Figure 1. The top-left is the zerofrequency component. The lowest frequency band FL and the highest frequency band FH are
not changed. A watermark bit is embedded in the highlighted medium frequency band FM by
modifying its coefficients.
In the DCT-based video watermarking, a frame is divided to 8x8 non-overlapping blocks. A
watermark is embedded to video frames piece by piece. A watermark of size L bits is divided
into m pieces. Since L/m bits has to be embedded in a frame, a subset of L/m block locations
are selected randomly using a secret key. Always this subset is used to embed a watermark
piece Wi into every frame. In recovering stage, the same secret key is utilized to locate those
watermarked blocks. A watermark piece is selected randomly to embed it into the current
frame. Every block in the subset is DCT transformed and its 22 medium frequency band
coefficients are determined. Two uncorrelated pseudo random sequences, R0 and R1, of
length 22 are generated to represent watermark data bits 0 and 1. A single bit is embedded to
one of the blocks with coefficients D(u,v) in the subset by
D(u, v)  aRk (u, v),
DW (u, v)  
D(u, v),
u, v  FM 

u, v  FM 
(2)
where DW is coefficients of watermarked block and a is a strength constant. The balance
between robustness and visibility of watermarking is adjusted by a. The watermarked block is
then back-transformed to spatial domain by taking its inverse DCT.
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Figure 1: DCT frequency bands
LL1
LH1
HL1
HH1
Figure 2: Frequency bands of 1-level DWT
2.2 DCT-based Watermark Recovery
To recover the embedded watermark piece from each frame, first the watermarked blocks are
determined and then the middle band frequency coefficients in their DCT are obtained. The
pseudo random sequences R0 and R1 are computed and correlated with the middle band
coefficients of each watermarked block. The higher of the two correlation values specifies the
recovered possible watermark data bit. As a result, an array of higher correlation value C(n)
and an array of recovered bits U(n) of the watermark piece are obtained for nth bit after all
watermarked blocks are examined. U(n) is (binary) correlated with each of the real
watermark pieces Wi(n) to identify it. If the maximum correlation value is smaller than a
predefined threshold value Tp, U(n) is ignored assuming a failure of watermark detection in
the current frame. When all frames are processed in this manner, a number of recovered
instances Uij(n), indexed by j, of each watermark piece Wi(n) are obtained and recorded.
Correlation values Cij(n) of all recovered bits are also formed from C(n) of every frame.
2.2.1 Reconstruction of Watermark
We use an algorithm for the reconstruction of watermark pieces Vi(n) from their recovered
instances Uij(n) as follows. Set i=0 and count the numbers of 0 bits and 1 bits for every bit
location n in Uij(n) discarding bits for which Cij(n)< T, a predefined bit correlation threshold
value. Those are assumed as incorrectly recovered bits. Then, Vi(n) is assigned the bit with at
least 70% majority of total count for bit n. If there is no such majority, the bit defaults to 0.
This process is repeated after i is incremented until all watermark pieces are reconstructed.
Finally, the entire watermark can be formed by concatenating all watermark pieces Vi(n)
(i=0,1,2,…,m-1) in correct order.
2.3 DWT-based Watermarking
The basic idea of the DWT is to decompose a frame into a sub-image of different spatial
domain and independent frequency districts. 1-level Haar DWT is used in this study for
simplicity. Figure 2 shows the 1-level DWT of an image by frequency bands. The lower
resolution approximation region LL of an image contains the most important pictorial
information, hence, it is not used for watermark embedding. The frequency regions of LH,
HL and HH represent the horizontal, vertical and diagonal details, respectively, of the image.
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A watermark is embedded to video frames piece by piece as in DCT-based watermarking. In
our study, the same watermark piece is embedded to both LH and HL bands. For each bit of
the watermark, a different pseudo random sequence Rn (n=0,1,2,…,L-1 and R={ R1, R2,…})
with length equal to the length of these bands is generated. After a piece of the watermark is
selected randomly, the sequences in R that represents the bits in that piece only are multiplied
by a strength constant and added to both LH and HL band coefficients of the DWT of the
current frame, in a way similar to that in (2). We embed only watermark bits 0 (black pixels
in the binary watermark image) in the DWT-based method to improve imperceptibility of
watermarking. Finally, the frame is transformed to spatial domain by taking its inverse DWT.
In the recovering stage, every sequence Rn is correlated with LH band coefficients of the 1level DWT of the current frame. Every bit n in the embedded watermark piece is recovered
and stored in an array of U1(n) if C1(n) value of correlation of LH band coefficients with Rn
exceeds a threshold value. Otherwise U1(n) defaults to 0. Then, U1(n) is divided into m
pieces and each piece is correlated with each watermark piece Wi(n) to identify which
watermark piece is embedded in the current frame. If the maximum correlation value is
smaller than a predefined threshold value, U(n) is ignored assuming a failure of watermark
detection in the LH band of the current frame. Otherwise, the piece giving the highest
correlation value is overwritten on U1(n). Similarly, correlation of every Rn with HL band
coefficients of current frame yield U2(n) and C2(n). When all frames are processed in this
manner, a number of recovered instances Uij(n) of each watermark piece Wi(n) and the
correlation values Cij(n) of all those recovered bits can be obtained and recorded. Note that
Uij(n) and Cij(n) contains results obtained from both LH and HL band coefficients. The
algorithm for the reconstruction of watermark pieces Vi(n) from their recovered instances
Uij(n) is the same as explained in Section 2.2.1.
3. THE PROPOSED HYBRID VIDEO WATERMARKING METHOD
3.1 Hybrid Watermarking
In the hybrid method, there are three ways to embed a piece of watermark in the current
frame, using DCT, DWT, and a combination of the DCT-DWT transforms. In embedding
stage, one of the three different watermarking algorithms and a watermark piece for the
current frame are selected randomly. Depending on the selection, the entire frame is
watermarked using the algorithms and parameters given in Section 2.1 (for DCT-based) or in
Section 2.3 (for DWT-based) in the hybrid method. If the random selection comes out to be
the combined method, the frame is divided into two equal halves by a horizontal line. The
watermark piece is embedded to the upper half by the DCT-based algorithm and to the lower
half by the DWT-based algorithm. In this case, the concepts are the same except that the
maximum number of 8x8 DCT blocks and size of frequency regions of DWT in a frame will
be halved. The hybrid method is expected to perform better by exploiting the advantages of
the both transform based methods.
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3.2 Watermark Recovery for Hybrid Method
The watermarked video is used as input for the DCT based, DWT based and combined DCTDWT based watermark recovery modules, individually. Some attacks drop several frames
from watermarked frame or change the order of frames in video. This makes any record of
watermarking history of frames void, hence, all three modules must try to recover watermark
data blindly from each frame. The recovering stages of the DCT based and DWT based
watermarked frames are the same as given in Sections 2.2 and 2.3. If watermark data is to be
recovered using The combined DCT-DWT recovery module applies to the upper half of each
frame the DCT-based recovery algorithm and to the lower half the DWT-based algorithm. In
the upper half frame, the same subset of DCT blocks watermarked by the combined method
is located to recover the watermark bits. The outputs of two full frame independent recovery
algorithms (DCT-based and DWT-based) and two half frame recovery algorithms for each
frame are recorded separately. When all frames are processed 4 individual Uij(n), one from
each recovery algorithm, are merged into one. The same merging applies to Cij(n) too. The
algorithm for the reconstruction of watermark pieces Vi(n) from their hybrid-recovered
instances Uij(n) is the same as explained in Section 2.2.1.
Some attacks can distort the watermark data embedded using one specific frequency domain
transform. In this case, the advantage of the hybrid method appears. If one of the transform
based methods cannot resist to some attacks, the other transform based method may hopefully
resist and recover the lost watermark data from either the same frame or other frames.
4. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
4.1 Details of Tests
A digital video with 104 frames of size 640x480 and two different watermark data with
dimensions of 20x20 and 24x24 pixels, respectively, are used in the tests (Figure 3).
(b)
(c)
Figure 3: (a) A frame from the test video, (b) and (c) two watermarks used in the tests.
The test video is also watermarked with the DCT-based and DWT-based methods,
individually, in order to compare their performances to that of the proposed hybrid method.
The tests are performed under 4 different scenarios. The watermark 1 is divided to 2 and 4
333
pieces in the scenarios 1 and 2, respectively, and watermark 2 is divided to 2 and 6 pieces in
the scenarios 3 and 4, respectively.
4.2 Results of Simulated Attacks
Noise addition attack adds to the watermarked video two types of noise, salt & pepper’ noise
and Gaussian noise depending on selection. Because a video contains a large amount of
redundancies between frames, frame dropping is an attractive attack to destroy watermark
data. In the tests, the frames of the watermarked videos were dropped up to 70% of the total
number of frames in the test video. The frame averaging attack collects a number of
successive frames and averages them out to generate an output frame. This is repeated at
every frame of watermarked video producing an averaged video. The compression attack is
simulated by compressing the watermarked video using a codec for ‘wmv3’ video format in
MATLAB environment. Median filtering attack smooths images without blurring edges
significantly. Intensity adjustment attack, maps the values in intensity image to new values
such that normalized intensity values less than 0.01 and higher than 0.99 are saturated at 0
and 255, respectively. Contrast enhancement attack applies histogram equalization to every
frame. The normalized correlation value between a reconstructed watermark and an original
watermark is computed and given in Table 1 as a measure of watermark detection robustness
of the tested methods under a given scenario and an attack. Simulation results show that the
hybrid method improves watermark robustness against the tested attacks.
4.3 Imperceptibility and Capacity
Imperceptibility indicates how invisible the watermark is. This requirement has a trade off
relation with two other requirements, robustness and capacity. The imperceptibility of the
watermarked data is measured using peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) between original and
watermarked data. Imperceptibility values of all methods computed from the watermarked
video frames were extremely high (over 80 dB for every frame) so that existence of any
watermark in video could not be visually detected. Capacity is the amount of the data that can
be embedded in a digital data. Increasing the size of watermark data embedded in a video
decreases the visual quality of the video. We can compute the capacity of the DCT based
method only, because in the DWT based method, number of bits to be embedded in a frame
is theoretically infinite. For a given video, capacity of the DCT based method is equal to the
number of blocks with a given size (usually 8) in a frame. The DCT based capacity is 4800
bits/frame for full frame watermarking and 2400 bits/frame for half-frame (i.e., for combined
DCT-DWT based) watermarking.
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Table 1: Performances of the DCT-based, DWT-based and hybrid methods for several
attacks. Given are the normalized correlation values between recovered and original
watermarks.
DCT
Scenario
Attack name
salt & pepper noise density= 0.02
salt & pepper noise density=0.04
Gaussian noise (mild)
frame dropping (70%)
frame averaging over 2 frames
frame averaging over 6 frames
video compression (quality=90)
3x3 median filter
intensity adjustment
contrast enhancement
1
0.98
0.69
0.97
0.99
0.98
0.92
0.87
0.98
0.99
0.99
2
0.98
0.74
0.88
0.98
0.98
0.81
0.70
0.93
0.99
0.99
3
0.97
0.96
0.98
0.97
0.97
0.93
0.86
0.90
0.99
0.98
DWT
Scenario
4
0.91
0.65
0.87
0.87
0.78
0.70
0.72
0.84
0.98
0.98
1
1.00
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
2
1.00
0.95
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.90
0.86
1.00
0.01
1.00
1.00
Hybrid Method
Scenario
4
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.79
0.58
1.00
0.20
1.00
1.00
1
1.00
0.89
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.97
1.00
1.00
2
1.00
0.95
1.00
1.00
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.91
1.00
1.00
3
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.97
1.00
1.00
4
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.95
1.00
0.84
1.00
1.00
5. CONCLUSIONS
In this study, a hybrid digital video watermarking method is proposed. This hybrid method
contains two frequency domain watermarking methods because of their advantages: DCT
based and DWT based methods. Thus, the advantages of the both methods are utilized in the
proposed method. The watermark is divided to sub-pieces and these pieces are embedded to
frames. The hybrid method has better robustness compared to the individual methods it
merges without significant reductions in the capacity and imperceptibility requirements. The
size of a piece of watermark to be embedded into a frame must not be too small. Otherwise
recovery of such small pieces from an attacked video may fail.
REFERENCES
Busch, C., Funk, W. and Wolthusen, S. (1999) Digital Watermarking: From Concepts to
Real-Time Video Applications. IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications, 19, 25-35.
Chetan K.R, and Raghavendra K. (2010) DWT Based Blind Digital Video Watermarking
Scheme for Video Authentication. International Journal of Computer Applications, 4, 19-26.
Cox, I., Kilian, J., Leighton, F. and Shamoon, T. (1997) Secure Spread Spectrum
Watermarking for Multimedia. IEEE Transactions on Image Processing, 6, 1673-1687.
Cox, I., Miller, M. and Bloom, J. (2002) Digital Watermarking, Academic Press, USA
Hartung, F. and Girod, B. (1998). Watermarking of uncompressed and compressed video.
Proceedings Signal Processing, 66, 283–301
335
Kundur, D. and Hatzinakos, D. (1998) Digital watermarking using multiresolution wavelet
decomposition. Int. Conf. on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, 2969-2972.
Langelaar, G., and Lagendijk, R. (2001) Optimal differential energy watermarking of dct
encoded images and video. IEEE Transactions on image Processing, 148–158
Xia, X., Boncelet, C., and Arce, G. (1997) A Multiresolution Watermark for Digital Images.
Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. on Image Processing, vol. I, 548-551.
Investigation Of Seismic Performance Of Existing Building Strengthened With Cfrp
Ali Demir1, Hakan Başaran2, Duygu Dönmez Demir3
1Department of Civil Engineering, Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey
2Department of Turgutlu Vocation School, Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey
3Department of Mathematics, Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey
Abstract
In this study, the seismic performance of the Merkez Efendi hospital building was determined
with CFRP strengthening methods according to the Turkish Earthquake Code-2007. Firstly,
the building was considered with the masonry walls and without masonry walls and the effect
of the masonry walls to the performance of the building was investigated. Afterwards, the
building was strengthened with CFRP plates to get the required seismic performance level.
Consequently, the seismic performances of the hospital building were compared for these
three cases.
Keywords: Strengthening, Masonry Wall, CFRP, Seismic Performance
1.INTRODUCTION
Buildings are subjected to earthquake, wind, fire etc. during their lifetimes. Sometimes,
addition of a story and change in the purpose of using occur. For these reasons, the
performances of the buildings should be investigated according to the present earthquake
codes of the countries. If the performance of the building is insufficient, it must be
rehabilitated. The Turkish Earthquake Code-2007 (TEC-2007) gives alternative rehabilitation
methods. One should choose the most suitable method for buildings. Chapter 7 of TEC-2007
entitled “Assessment and Strengthening of Existing Buildings” and sets standards for
336
assessment and rehabilitation of existing buildings (Sucuoglu 2006). Recently, there have
been some studies about linear and non-linear procedures in TEC-2007 and concluded that
results of linear procedures are more conservative than non-linear ones (Sengoz 2007, Tuncer
et al. 2007, Kalkan and Kunnath 2007).
In this study, the seismic performance level of the Merkez Efendi hospital building with
and without masonry walls is determined according to TEC-2007. The some masonry walls
are strengthened with CFRP plates for rehabilitation of building. The capacity curves and
performance levels of the strengthened buildings are determined with incremental static
pushover analysis and compared.
2.DESCRIPTION OF THE HOSPITAL BUILDING
The hospital building has ground floor and three stories. The height of the ground floor is
3.70 m and the heights of the other floors are 3.20 m. The building has dimensions 34.90 m
by 14.70 m in plan. The building has two shear walls, columns and beams (Fig.1). The
building is situated in the 1.seismic zone and Z3 local site class. The standard compressive
strength of the concrete of the building is determined from the samples taken from the
columns as 11 MPa (Fig.2.b). Material properties are 220 MPa for the yield strength of both
longitudinal
and
transverse
reinforcements.
A
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60) (30/60)
(60/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
Y
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(60/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)(30/60)
595
(30/60)
(60/60)
280
(60/60)
X
C
595
(240/30)
1470
B
(30/60)
345
1
330
2
330
3
(240/30)
490
4
330
5
3490
330
6
330
7
330
8
330
9
Figure 1: The plan of ground and first floor of the existing building
337
D
345
10
11
a) The hospital building
b) The coring
Figure 2: Existing Building
The existing hospital building was modeled with the present masonry walls and without
the masonry walls and they were shown in Figure 4.a and 4.b. After the existing hospital
building is rehabilitated with CFRP plates (Fig 4.c).
The masonry walls of the hospital building were compared to trusses according to FEMA
and Mainstone who had recommend the formulas Equation 1, 2 and 3. According to TEC2007 the elasticity modulus of the masonry walls and compression strength were determined
as
1000
MPa,
1
MPa,
respectively.
338
d
: Diagonal length
t
: Width of masonry wall
Wef
: Effective wal width
Em
: Modulus of elasticity (Masonry)
Es
: Modulus of elasticity (Frame)
R
: Bearing capacity
H`
: Length of masonry wall
H
: Story height
L`
: Net span width
L
: Span width
θ
: Angle of diagonal compressive bar
Ic
: Moment of inertia of columns
Figure 3: Diagonal compression region in masonry wall under lateral load and equivalent
virtual diagonal compressive bar element that represents the masonry wall
d  H2  L2
(1)
w  0.175(1  H)0.4  H2  L2
(2)
1
 E  t  sin 2  4
1   m

 4  Es  Ic  h 
339
(3)
The strengthening with CFRP plates is seen in Fig.4.c. The width of the CFRP plates is
100 mm and the thickness is 1.4 mm, the modulus of elasticity of CFRP is 210000 MPa. The
three CFRP plates are bonded to the masonry walls side by side. The performance levels of
this rehabilitation are compared with the existing building performance. The connection
details of CFRP are shown in Fig.5.
H-EB
= Existing Hospital Building
H-EBMW
= Existing Hospital Building with Masonry Walls
H-CFRP
= Strengthened Hospital Building with CFRP
a) H-EB
b) H-EBMW
c) H-CFRP
Figure 4: The existing and strengthened hospital buildings with CFRP method
Bolt
Beam
Column
Masonry Wall
CFRP
Plate
Figure 5: The connection details of CFRPs
3.METHODS
340
The incremental static pushover analysis was employed for the performance assessments.
The incremental equivalent static lateral force analysis is limited to 8 story buildings with
total height not exceeding 25 m, and not possessing torsion irregularity. Nonlinear flexural
behaviour in frame members are confined to plastic hinges, where the plastic hinge length Lp
is assumed as half of the section depth (Lp= h/2). Pre-yield linear behaviour of concrete
sections is represented by cracked sections, which is 0.40EIo for beams and varies between
(0.40-0.80)EIo with the axial stress for columns. Strain hardening in the plastic range may be
ignored, provided that the plastic deformation vector remains normal to the yield surface.
The objective is to carry out nonlinear static analysis under incrementally increasing
lateral forces distributed in accordance with the dominant mode shape in the earthquake
excitation direction. Lateral forces are increased until the earthquake displacement demand is
reached. Internal member forces and plastic deformations are calculated at the demand level.
A capacity diagram is obtained from the incremental analysis which is expressed in the “base
shear force - roof displacement” plane.
The reference design spectrum in the Code has 10% probability of exceeding in 50 years.
Based on Turkish strong motion data, it is estimated that the spectral ordinates for 50%
probability of exceeding in 50 years are half of the reference spectrum whereas the ordinates
for 2% probability of exceeding in 50 years are 1.5 times that of the reference spectrum.
Building earthquake performance level is determined after determining the member
damage states Evaluation of the investigated buildings is performed using the recently
published TEC-2007. Three performance levels, immediate occupancy (IO), life safety (LS),
and collapse prevention (CP) are considered as specified in this code and several other
international guidelines such as ATC-40, FEMA-273, FEMA-307, FEMA-356(ASCE 2000),
FEMA-440, EC-8 and NZS-2003. The rules for determining building performance in TEC2007 are given for each performance level.
Immediate Life Collapse
Occupancy Safety Prevention
IO
LS
CP
Displacement ()
Performance Levels of
the Members
Moment
Base Shear (VT)
Performance Levels of
the Building
Immediate Life Collapse
Occupancy Safety Prevention
IO
LS
CP
Plastic Rotation (
P
Figure 6: Performance levels for members and buildings
341
4.RESULTS
Modal properties of the first mode of the building are given in Table 1. The effect of the
rehabilitation method with CFRP plates on the dynamic properties of the building are shown
in Table 1.
Table 1: Period values of the hospital building
Type of Building
H-EB
H-EBMW
H-CFRP
X direction
0.566
0.517
0.528
Y direction
0.555
0.511
0.520
The capacity curves (base shear-displacement) of the buildings are obtained for x and y
directions with incremental static pushover analysis and shown in Figure 7.
16000
14000
8000
Base Shear (kN)
Base Shear (kN)
10000
6000
4000
2000
H-EB
0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Displacement (m)
0.4
0.5
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0.00
H-EBMW
0.05
0.10
0.20
0.25
0.30
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0.00
H-CFRP
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Displacement (m)
Capacity Curve-X Direction
Capacity Curve-Y Direction
0.25
Figure 7: The capacity curves of the building
342
0.15
Displacement (m)
10000
Base Shear (kN)
12000
According to TEC-2007, the seismic performance points of the hospital building are
obtained with incremental static pushover analysis and shown in Table 2. While the base
shears of the strengthened building and having masonry walls increase according to the
existing building without masonry walls, it is observed that displacements are same levels.
Table 2: Performance points for incremental static pushover analysis
H-EB
H-EBMW
H-CFRP
X
Y
X
Y
X
Y
6233
5703
9809
8537
8182
7470
Displacement (m) 0.073
0.050
0.071 0.053
0.070
0.050
Base Shear (kN)
According to TEC-2007, the member damage states are determined and shown in Table
3, 4 and 5. Since the existing building does not provide life safety level, it is strengthened
with CFRP plates. The seismic evaluations of the building are calculated for each state with
the TEC-2007.
Table 3: Performance level of H-EB for incremental static pushover analysis
<IO
IO
LS
CP
Story
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
1
0(%0)
0(%0)
10(%29)
19(%43)
18(%53)
12(%27)
6(%18)
13(%30)
2
0(%0)
44(%100)
1(%3)
0(%0)
14(%41)
0(%0)
19(%56)
0(%0)
3
0(%0)
44(%100)
3(%9)
0(%0)
20(%59)
0(%0)
11(%32)
0(%0)
4
0(%0)
44(%100)
20(%59)
0(%0)
14(%41)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
Evaluation
Life Safety Level X
Global performance level of the building is given for incremental static pushover analysis
in Table 3. In first story, in the direction of the applied earthquake loads, 29% of the beams
343
and 43% of the columns are in the immediate occupancy states. 53% of the beams and 27%
the columns are life safety states in this story. 18% of the beams and 30% the columns are
collapse prevention states in this story. In this situation, the building performance does not
satisfy life safety (LS) level.
Table 4: Performance level of H-EBMW for incremental static pushover analysis
<IO
IO
LS
CP
Story
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
1
0(%0)
0(%0)
10(%29)
19(%43)
18(%53)
12(%27)
6(%18)
13(%30)
2
0(%0)
44(%100)
1(%3)
0(%0)
14(%41)
0(%0)
19(%56)
0(%0)
3
0(%0)
44(%100)
3(%9)
0(%0)
20(%59)
0(%0)
11(%32)
0(%0)
4
0(%0)
44(%100)
20(%59)
0(%0)
14(%41)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
Evaluation
Life Safety Level X
Table 5: Performance level of H-CFRP for incremental static pushover analysis
<IO
IO
LS
CP
Story
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
1
27(%79)
39(%89)
5(%15)
3(%7)
2(%6)
2(%4)
0(%0)
0(%0)
2
29(%85)
44(%100)
3(%9)
0(%0)
2(%6)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
3
34(%100)
44(%100)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
4
34(%100)
44(%100)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
Evaluation
344
Life Safety Level
√
5.CONCLUSIONS
In this study, the seismic performances of the Merkez Efendi Hospital building are
determined according to the conditions of TEC-2007. Since the seismic performance of the
existing building is insufficient, CFRP method is used for the rehabilitation and the results
are compared.
As a result of the performance analyses:





The existing hospital building does not satisfy the life safety level for the earthquake
that may be 2% probability of exceeding in 50 years.
The performance analyses of the building were considered with the masonry walls
and without the masonry walls. The lateral load capacity of the building with the
consideration of the masonry walls was 57% more than that of the without masonry
walls. However, the displacements were the same for two cases.
The strengthening members (CFRP) are designed according to the minimum
standards of the TEC-2007.
Although lateral load carrying capacity of strengthened building increase, horizontal
displacement at the roof for the building is same with existing building.
As the member damage conditions are investigated, the performance of the
strengthening method according to the conditions of TEC-2007 is satisfactory.

As a result of this work:
Once the effect of the masonry walls is taken into account in structural analyses, the buildings
are designed more economic. The application of CFRP plates should be detailed very good
and applied very well. As a result, it can be said that the CFRP method recommended in the
TEC-2007 can be applied with confidence.
REFERENCES
FEMA-356 (2005) Prestandard and Commentary for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings,
Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington.
Kalkan E. and Kunnath S.K. (2007) Assessment of current nonlinear static procedures for
seismic evaluation of buildings, Engineering Structures, 29, 305–316.
Mainstone, R.J. (1974) Suplementary Note on the Stifness and Strengths of Infilled Frames,
Building Research Station, UK, Feb.
345
Sucuoglu, H. (2006) The Turkish seismic rehabilitation code, First European Conference on
Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September.
Sengoz, A. (2007) Quantitative evaluation of assessment methods in the 2007 Turkish
Earthquake Code, Master Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, METU, Ankara.
TEC 2007, Specifications for buildings to be built in seismic areas, Turkish Earthquake Code
2007. Ministry of Public Works and Settlement, Ankara, Turkey.Tuncer O. Celep, Z. Yılmaz,
M.B. (2007) A comparative evaluation of the methods given in the Turkish Seismic Code,
WCCE–ECCE– TCCE
Joint Conference: EARTHQUAKE & TSUNAMI.
Medical Decision Support System for Diagnosis of Cardiovascular Diseases using DWT
and k-NN
Emina Alickovic, Abdulhamit Subasi
International Burch University, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies,
Abstract
Heart disease is a cardiovascular disorder that is most widespread cause of death in many
countries all over the world. In this work, k-Nearest Neighbor machine learning tool was used
to classify Electrocardiography (ECG) signals and satisfactory accuracy rate was achieved in
classification of ECG signals. The model automatically classifies the ECG signals into 5
different kinds: normal, Premature Ventricular Complex (PVC), Atrial Premature Contraction
(APC), Right Bundle Branch Block (RBBB) and Left Bundle Branch Block (RBBB). The
best averaged performance over randomized percentage-split is also obtained by k-Nearest
Neighbor (k-NN) classification model. Some conclusions concerning the impacts of features
on the ECG signal classification were obtained through analysis of different parameters of
kNN. The analysis suggests that kNN modeling is satisfactory performances in at least three
points: high recognition rate, insensitivity to overtraining and computational time it takes for
classification. The combined model with DWT and k-NN achieves the good. Obtained result
shows that the suggested model have the potential to obtain a reliable classification of ECG
346
signals, and to support the clinicians for making an accurate diagnosis of cardiovascular
disorders.
Keywords: Electrocardiogram (ECG); Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT); k-Nearest
Neighbor (k-NN); Heart Arrhythmia; Premature Ventricular Complex (PVC); Atrial
Premature Contraction (APC); Right Bundle Branch Block (RBBB); Left Bundle Branch
Block (RBBB).
1. INTRODUCTION
Heart diseases are a major cause of mortality in most of the countries around the world. In
2008, approximately 17 million people die each year due to this disease or 48 % of all deaths
in 2008. It is estimated that this number will even grow. In 2030, it is estimated that 23.6
million people will die from cardiovascular diseases (WHO | Cardiovascular diseases
(CVDs)). In Bosnia and Herzegovina, 35000 or 66% of all deaths were due to cardiovascular
diseases (BiH). In Turkey, almost 31500 people (49 % of total mortality) died from
cardiovascular diseases (Turkey). Because of this many researchers have conducted in this
field in the world.
The Electrocardiography is noninvasive tool for detecting the electrical activity that
originates in the heart. Expression cardiovascular arrhythmia is used to describe any irregular
electrical activity originating from heart. Electrocardiogram (ECG) is one of the most
significant apparatus for diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. The ECG signal classification
into different cardiovascular disease groups is a complex pattern recognition problem. These
signals are highly nonlinear also. Therefore, different techniques such as signal processing
techniques, machine learning methods, were used for this purpose.
The aim of this study is to introduce a method for detection of heart diseases in ECG
recordings. We propose a method for differentiating normal heartbeats (N) from left bundle
branch blocks (LBBB), right bundle branch blocks (RBBB), atrial premature contractions
(APC) and premature ventricular contractions (PVC) heartbeats (Clifford, Azuaje, &
McSharry, 2006). In this study, k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) classifiers combined with
statistical features extracted from DWT is used to classify ECG signals. To contribute to the
quantification of the routine ECG examination, a methodology has been developed for ECG
signal classification which consists of three steps. In the first step, the ECG signals are
decomposed into different frequency bands using discrete wavelet transform (DWT). In the
second step, statistical features extracted from these subband decomposed ECG signals to get
better accuracy for diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. In the last step, an unknown ECG
signal is classified as normal heartbeats (N) from left bundle branch blocks (LBBB), right
bundle branch blocks (RBBB), atrial premature contractions (APC) and premature ventricular
contractions (PVC) heartbeats using k-NN classifier.
347
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In the next section, information is given
about the materials and datasets used in this research. This section also explains methods
applied in each step of the ECG signal classification process. Also, three different k-NN
methods are discussed and compared. Section 3 gives discussion on the results achieved in
this study. Finally, the conclusions are summarized in Section 4.
2. MATERIALS AND METHODS
2.1. Database
The ECG signals for training and testing datasets are obtained from MIT-BIH arrhythmia
database. Records were obtained by the Beth Israel Hospital Arrhythmia Laboratory between
1975 and 1979. This database is available online24. It contains two leads for upper and lower
ECG signals for all 48 records from 47 different patients. Patients are 25 men aged 32 to 89
and 22 women aged 23 to 89. Two records (201 and 202) came from same patient. Each of
these records is 30 minutes long with sampling frequency of 360 Hz. Each beat has been
labeled by at least two cardiologists. There are more than 109,000 labeled ventricular beats
from 15 distinct heartbeat types. There is an immense diversity in the amount of examples in
each heartbeat category. The biggest category is “Normal beat” and the smallest is
“Supraventricular premature beat” (with only two examples) (MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database
Directory).
2.2. Discrete wavelet transform
The DWT is a signal-processing technique having a lot of applications in science and
engineering. The wavelet transform (WT) permits the non-stationary signals discrimination
with diverse frequency characteristics [14]. It disintegrates a signal into wavelets (group of
simple functions. These wavelets result from a single function ψ, called the mother wavelet,
by dilations and translations as (Daubechies, Mallat, & Willsky, 1992; Vetterli & Herley,
1992).
 a ,b t  
1
a
t b

 a 

(1)
where a is positive number. Typically, a is 1 for the mother wavelet and growing a > 1 dilates
the wavelet, getting bigger on the interval over which it takes non-zero values.
24 http://physionet.ph.biu.ac.il/physiobank/database/html/mitdbdir/mitdbdir.htm
348
The discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is used to disintegrate a signal. It uses filters to extract
out of the ordinary frequency resolution components within the signal. The DWT has
compact support in time and frequency domain (Mallat, 1999; Marchant, 2003; Semmlow,
2004; Sornmo & Laguna, 2006). It examines the signal at different frequency bands, with
different resolutions. It separates the signal into two parts: a coarse approximation and detail
information. DWT uses two function sets called scaling functions and wavelet functions.
These two sets are allied to low-pass and high-pass filters, respectively. Every phase of this
scheme has two digital filters and scale changes by power of 2. In the process of reducing the
sampling rate, outputs of first high-pass and low-pass filters give the detail, D1 and the
approximation, A1, respectively. The first approximation, A1 is later decomposed and this
process is continued. Approximation and detail records are rebuilded from the Daubechies 4
(DB4) wavelet filter. More detailed explanation is given in (Mallat, 1999; Marchant, 2003;
Semmlow, 2004; Sornmo & Laguna, 2006; Adeli, Zhou, & Dadmehr, 2003; Akay, 1997;
Subasi, ECG signal classification using wavelet feature extraction and a mixture of expert
model, 2007; Subasi, Automatic recognition of alertness level from EEG by using neural
network and wavelet coefficents, 2005). The extracted wavelet coefficients give a firm
illustration showing the energy distribution of the ECG signal in time and frequency.
2.3. k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN)
k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) is proper mechanism for solving biomedical engineering
problems and, particularly, in evaluating biomedical signals, because of their wide range of
applications and usage and their potential to learn difficult and nonlinear relations. It is very
simple machine learning tool. The k-NN algorithm is object classification tool based on
nearest training samples in the feature. The algorithm does not depend on any kind of
statistical distribution of training examples. A number of distance measures are capable of
being used in k-NN algorithm. Still, the most popular distance is Euclidean. An object
classification is done by a mass election of its neighbors. Object is assigned to the class being
most frequent one its k nearest neighbors. k is usually selected to be small. When k is
selected to be 1, the object is just prescribed to the class of its nearest neighbor. Due to this,
the algorithm is called as the k-Nearest Neighbor (Jekova, Bortolan, & Christov, 2008). In
Our study, we used three different techniques implementing k-NN algorithm. All these three
methods are implemented in Weka (Weka 3 - Data Mining with Open Source Machine
Learning Software in Java). These three different techniques are called as: IBk, KStar and
LWL. Detailed description of these three different k-NN techniques is given in (Aha, Kibler,
& Albert, 1991; Cleary & Trigg, 1995; Frank, Hall, & McShary, 2003).
3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
349
In this study five different heartbeat classes were analyzed. These are: N (normal heart beat),
RBBB (Right Bundle Branch Block), LBBB (Left Bundle Branch Block), APC (Atrial
Premature Contraction) and PVC (Premature Ventricular Complex).
The classification abilities for three different implementations of k-NN method applied on the
morphological ECG descriptors are estimated set obtained by processing all heartbeats from
MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. Two statistical indices; sensitivity (Sej) and specificity (Spj);
were computed for every heartbeat class j (N, PVC, APC, LBBB and RBBB). They are
calculated as (Jekova, Bortolan, & Christov, 2008):
Sp j 
TN j
TN j  FPj
Se j 
TPj
TPj  FN j
(2)
where TPj (true positives) represents the amount of correctly classified heartbeats of jth class
(e.g. RBBB classified as RBBB); TNj (true negatives) represents the amount of heartbeats
not being part of the jth class and not classified in the jth class (e.g. PVC, APC, LBBB and
RBBB not classified as N); FPj (false positives) is the amount of incorrectly classified
heartbeats in the class j (e.g. PVC,APC, LBBB and RBBB classified as N); FNj (false
negatives) is the amount of heartbeats of class j, classified in a different class (e.g. RBBB not
classified as RBBB) (Jekova, Bortolan, & Christov, 2008). 66 % percentage split gave the
best results in this research and results are given in Table 1 and their graphical representation
is illustrated in Fig. 1.
Table 1. ECG Signal Classification Results for k-NN Classifiers.
IBk
LVL
Se
Sp
Se
Sp
Se
Sp
N
0.897
0.897
0.891
0.897
0.891
0.908
APC
0.909
0.995
0.848
0.991
0.879
0.99
PVC
0.639
0.958
0.656
0.953
0.754
0.967
RBBB
0.907
0.991
0.893
0.993
0.92
0.993
0.951
0.975
0.971
0.978
0.931
0.969
LBBB
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KStar
Accuracy obtained for these three different k-NN methods are also compared. For IBk
accuracy obtained is 88.24 %, for KStar accuracy is 87.91 % and for LVL, accuracy obtained
is 88.73 %. As we can see from Figure 2, accuracies obtained LVL k-NN gave the best result.
Beside these results, time required for classification is small compared to other two methods,
what is showing that LVL kNN is the most appropriate k-NN method for ECG signal
classification.
Figure 1 Graphical representation of evaluation performance of k-NN classifiers
Figure 2 Graphical representation of accuracies achieved by using k-NN classifiers
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4. CONCLUSION
In this study, we developed an efficient combination of classifier and signal processing
technique, which proved by the different experiments is applicable for the classification of
the ECG signals. This was accomplished using combination of DWT and kNN methods.
These three kNN methods are IBk, KStar, and LVL. Because the experiments proved, the
combination represented as LVL k-NN and DWT subbands can achieve a better performance
than other two k-NN classifier methods over the five ECG signal patterns: normal (N),
Premature Ventricular Complex (PVC), Atrial Premature Contraction (APC), Right Bundle
Branch Block (RBBB) and Left Bundle Branch Block (RBBB). The proposed LVL k-NN
classifier together with DWT subbands meets the requirements for five ECG signal patterns
characterization and is able of classifying the ECG signals accuracy rate. In addition, the
suggested LVL k-NN classifier shows guarantee as a clinically valuable method of providing
numerical inputs to the next step of the interpretation phase of an ECG examination. This
proves that the LVL k-NN classifier can be important for capturing and expression of
knowledge helpful to a clinician. These results provide encouragement to develop and
evaluate a LVL k-NN method for quantifying the level of contribution of a cardiovascular
disorder.
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353
Classification Of Emg Signals Using Decision Tree Methods
Selami Keleş, Abdulhamit Subaşı
E-mail:[email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
Nowadays, Usage of EMG signals are increasing very fast among the Medical Professionals
to determine specific disorders. Recent Computational Intelligence studies show that EMG
signals can be processed by machine learning methods. The aim of our study is to implement
an accurate system to classify EMG signals using decision tree algorithms. We preprocessed
the EMG signals and used autoregressive method (AR) for feature selection. Features are
reduced by different filtering methods and applied to decision tree classification algorithms,
namely Simple CART, C4.5, Random Forest and Random Tree. EMG signals are classified
as Myopathy, Neuropathy and Normal. All the data are compared each other on the table try
to find out the best classification and feature reduction methods. While tree algorithms
classify the data with the accuracy between %89, 82 and %99, 25, feature reduction slightly
affects the accuracy of the classification methods. It has been shown that a successful
automatic diagnostic system implemented to classify EMG signals by using decision tree
algorithms. Furthermore, future reduction may help to increase the accuracy of the system.
Keywords: EMG, Neuropathy, Myopathy, Simple CART, C4.5, Random Tree, Random
Forest, Feature reduction.
1.INTRODUCTION
Early and accurate diagnosis is important for neuromuscular diseases that help the patient to
get full recovery or have better health after therapy. Sometimes, clinical examination is not
enough to diagnose and to find the location of disorders [1]. Therefore, it has high importance
to find correct location of the disorders to accurate diagnosis and therapy. EMG recordings
are more useful than clinical examination to find out the muscle fibers involved in a disorders
and abnormal sensory nerve conduction. It allows the clinician to diagnosis without needing a
muscle biopsy and raises the clinician response time and helps to treat some disorders.
The analysis of EMG signals can be done only by qualified and professional neurologist. The
problem is that, there are few professionals to interpret the EMG waveforms and use the
necessary techniques. Therefore, it is important to develop an automated diagnostic system
by using EMG signals. The application of Computational Intelligence (CI) techniques can be
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used to develop an automated diagnostic system that detects and classify the neuromuscular
diseases by processing EMG signals which helps the neurologists to diagnose the
neuromuscular anomalies.
The MUP assessment may not be satisfactory to detect small deviation or miscellaneous
patterns of abnormalities [1]. Therefore, to design an accurate automatic EMG signal
classification system, different EMG analysis algorithms have been developed[2, 3]
To develop an intelligent diagnostic system, fist, EMG signals have to be pre-processed and
extracted the characteristic information. Then, extracted features that contain the time and
frequency domain information, processes by using wavelet coefficients, Fourier coefficients,
autoregressive coefficients or other signal processing techniques. After all, processed
information can be used as input to the classifier such as NNs, SVM or Decision Tree to
classify the disease.
One of the most popular MachineLearning Method ANN has been widely used to classify the
EMG data. In order to increase the classification success, ANN can combine the best of both
time and frequency domain measures, but it is not enough for clinical use [4, 5].
Christodoulou and Pattichis used Self Organized Feature Maps and Learning Vector
Quantization used to classify MUP’s [5]. Genetic algorithms were used by Schizas ve
Pattichis to classify the EMG signals [6]. Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN),
Dynamic Fuzzy Neural Network (DFNN) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
(ANFIS) based classifiers were compared by Subaşı. ANFIS model has reported more
successful than others with the accuracy of 95%. [7]. SVM classifier is used by Katsis at. al.
and the classify the EMG signals whit the correct identification rates of 93, 95 and 92% for
normal, myopathy and neuropathy, respectively [8]. The result of another
comparisonresearch between Combined Neural Network (CNN) and Feedforward Error
BackpropagationANN (FEBANN) classifiers was describedby Bozkurt. Even the CNN didn’t
provide the fast enough classification;itgaveslightly higher success than the FEBANN with
the accuracy of 92% [9]
There are still challenges to develop an accurate and practical automated system. EMG
signals vary patient to patient in a very large range. Signal amplitude and duration changes by
patient age. This problem can be solved by designing a signal processing techniques that
conserve or capture distinctive information in raw EMG readings. High-quality set of
features[10].
2.EMG
EMG can be defined as a method of analyzing neuromuscular conditionsdepends on cell
action potentials for the duration of muscle action. The specification of the EMG signal is
0.01-10mV and 10-2000Hz on average. This signal has information about location, reason of
disorder and type of illness. For example, while the EMG pulse duration shows the location
and metabolic condition of the muscle [11],odd spikes may point to the myopathy.
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Electromyograph records the Motor Unit Action Potential (MUAP). EMG can be categorized
into needle or fine wire EMG and surface (sEMG). While EMG signals are recording, some
instruments are required including, electrodes, a signal acquisition system and signal filters.
Generally, EMG instruments are produced with typical settings for signal characteristics such
as filter bandwidth, gain and input impedance [12].
The needle electrode or wire electrode can reach the individual motor unit and get the action
potential more accurately than the surface EMG.Surface EMG electrode is more useful than
needle or wire electrodes, because it is used by attaching the body instead of inserting
anything in it. EMG signals are recorded at hospital lab by Electromyographers[10].
3. Myopathy
Myopathy is a muscle disorder especially skeletal muscle, which is caused by several reasons
such as injury of muscle group or some genetic mutation. It obstructs the proper tasks of
muscle fibers. The patient suffering with myopathy has weak muscle and has difficulties to
perform regular tasks. Depending on the severity of disease, sometimes it is impossible to
make any movement by using affected muscle. There are a number of types of myopathy
including; Muscular dystrophy, Congenital muscular dystrophy, Duchenne muscular
dystrophy, Becker muscular dystrophy, Emery–Dreifuss muscular dystrophy, Myotonic
muscular dystrophy, Distal muscular dystrophy, limb–girdle muscular dystrophy,
facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy and oculopharyngeal muscular dystrophy [10]
Neuropathy
Simply, Neuropathy is the term for describing damage to nerves of nerves system. It causes
pain and some disability. Neuropathy can be caused by variety of precipitating factors
including infection, diabetes; alcohol abuse, cancer chemotherapy and injury. When a single
nerve is affected, it is called Mono-neuropathy. When a group of nerves or all nerves of
peripheral nerve are affected, it is called Polyneuropathy. Poly neuropathies are similar
because of inadequate manner in which sensory nerves react to malfunction. EMG diagnosis
is not considerably useful for Polyneuropathy, because the patients with polyneuropathy have
normal electrophysiological characteristics [10]
Decision Tree Classifiers;
The Decision Tree is a classification algorithm
thatclassifies a pattern by asking questions, in which
the next question asked depends on the answer to
the present question [13].It uses a “divide-andconquer” approach to solve the learning problems
[14]. Decision Tree learning methods are one of the
most popular inductive inference algorithms and
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Figure-1
have been used a wide range of task about medical diagnosis [15].
The instances are classified by sorting them down the tree from root to some leaf node which
the classification is provided in decision tree algorithms. The attributes of the instance are
tested at each node and sent to the sub node or leaf node from one of the branch which
correspond the possible values of that attribute [15]. The numeric attributes are tested by
comparing a pre-defined constant value at the node and it gives two or three-way split
depends on the several different possibilities. [14]. Trained trees can be shown by a set of ifthan rules to increase human readability [15]. An example of three is shown in the figure-1
which is adopted from Quinlan research [16].
4.C4.5
C4.5 is develop by Ross Quinlan [17] to make complex decision trees more understandable
by using a list of rules of the form “If X and Y and Z and ….then class A” where rules are
grouped together for each class. When the first rule is found which satisfies the condition of
case, the instance is classified. If there is no rule which is satisfied by the case, it is sent to
default class. The basic disadvantage of the C4.5 algorithm is requirement of high amount of
CPU time and system memory[18].
5.Random Tree
Random Decision Tree is a randomly trained ensemble of decision trees which is proposed by
Fan et al. [19]. The features are randomly selected at each node, while training trees phase is
proceeding. A selected discrete feature never selected again till it is vain to use the same
discrete feature more than once.Conversely, it is possible to choose continues features several
times as long as every time, using randomly selected splitting value. Each tree gives raw
posterior probabilities at the classification phase and outputs of each tree in the ensemble are
averaged for last posterior profanities estimation. It is proofed that the Random Decision Tree
is highly accurate classification method for both 0-1 loss and cost-sensitive loss function.
[20].
6.Random Forest
Random forest is a tree algorithm which composed of a number of tree predictors. In this
algorithm, each tree is shown by a random vector which is independently taken from the
same distribution in the forest. As the number of the tree increase in the forest, the
generalization error converges to a limit. The strength of the individual tree and relationship
between the trees affects the generalization error. Once all trees in the forest produce a result,
they are voted for the most passible class [21]. It is one of the most successfulclassification
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methods among the available algorithms for many data type [22], but opposite to other
decision tree methods, it makes classification which is difficult to deduce by human [23].
7.Classification and Regression Trees(CART)
Classification and Regression Trees (CART), proposed by Breiman at al., [24], was a
revolutionary improvement of Machine Learning and Data Mining fields which can be used
almost any domain such as electrical engineering, biology and medical researches. It is a
binary repeated division process which can work with the nominal and continues data.
The raw form of data is processed without requiring binning. The growing trees aren’t halted
by using stooping rules till it reaches maximum size and then clipped back to the root by
cost-complexity pruning method. The pruned next split contributes the overall performance
of the tree. The CART algorithm is projected to grow a sequence of nested pruned trees that
all of them are nomine of the optimal trees. To find out the “right sized” tree, the predictive
success of every tree is evaluated at the pruning process. The performance of the tree is
measured by test data or cross validation method and tree is selected after evolution, because
CART doesn’t have any internal performance measurement method depending on training
data. [18]
8.AR model
An Autoregressive (AR) model is used to estimate the different kinds of naturel fact in signal
processing and statistic fields which were originally proposed by Yule. It contains a set of
linear estimation formulas which is used to predict the output of a system depends on the
previous output. [25, 26]
There are a number of methods to estimate the AR model parameters. Some of them are the
Yule-Walker, Burg(1968), covariance and modified covariance methods. It is easy to access
and use these methods in many software packages such as MATLAB
(http://www.mathworks.com/products/matlab/) and Signal Processing Toolbox.
The Yule-Walker technique is based on a partial form of the autocorrelation approximate to
guarantee a positive semi defined autocorrelation matrix. Alternatively, the Burg method uses
a form of order-recursive least square method which approximates the parameters by
minimizing errors of the linear system. [10]
9.Feature selection algorithms
An important issue is handling irrelevant features in pattern recognition field. Feature
Selection (FS) method is necessary to find out the important features to classify the data
accurately, because it was not considered how to overcome a large amount of irrelevant
feature in many pattern recognition methods, while they were designing. [27,28,29] Mostly,
the feature selection methods are used to increase the model performance, to abstain the
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overfitting, to get faster and more cost effective models and to understand the processes
which produce the data. Beside the advantages, FS methods add new complexity layer to the
models. [30], searching the optimal subset of relevant features. FS methods can be grouped in
to three categories by the way of allying relevant features search with building classification
model; filter methods, wrapper methods and embedded methods. [31]
10.Materials and Methods
10.1.Subjects and Data Acquisition
The patients which samples are taken from and the control group were chosen at Neurology
Department of University of Gaziantep. Measurements are taken by an EMG system
(Keypoint; Medtronic Functional Diagnostics, Skovlunde, Denmark) with standard settings.
The signal was obtained from biceps brachii muscle by using a concentric needle electrode
(0.45 mm diameter with a recording surface area 0.07 mm2; impedance at 20 Hz below 200
KΩ). 5 Hz to 10 KHz band-pass filter was applied to the raw signal and sampled at 20 KHz
for 5 s with 12-bit resolution. Then 8 KHz low-passed filter was applied.
The signals are recorded from three to five different points in muscle for standardization. And
also the needles are inserted in to muscle until it reaches the medial or posterior border of the
muscle (at least 3-5 mm deep). The needles are moved 3-5 mm to ensure to record different
MUPs at every recoding season.
The signals were taken from the biceps brachii muscle of the patients under isometric
condition at just about 30% of Maximum Voluntary Contraction (MVC). Before the patient
diagnosis, general examination and clinical history of the patient were considered and EMG
and nerve conduction tests were regarded. Unless, the EMG diagnosis results were uncertain
and some other clinical reason; the muscle biopsies were not done.
The data which was used for this study were collected from 27 different subjects and
analyzed. Details about the subject are given below as in [3]



7 healthy subjects, (3 males, 4 females,) ages between 10 to 43 years (mean
age±standard deviation (S.D.): 30.2±10.8 years)
7 myopathic subjects (4 males, 3 females) ages between 7 to 46 years, (mean
13 neuropathic subjects (8 males, 5 females) ages between 7 to 55 years, (mean
We used the dataset which is recorded, preprocessedand features are extracted by Subaşı
(2006) for his research namely “Classification of EMG Signals Using Combined Features and
Soft computing” in this study.
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10.2.Data set
The dataset has 129 features which were extracted by AR model from recorded EMG signals
and contains three classes which are “Normal”, “Neuropathy” and “Myopathy”. As shown in
the table-2
Class
Normal
Neuropathy
Myopathy
Total
Number of instance
400
399
400
1199
Table-2
11.WEKA
WEKA is open source software issued under the GNU General Public License which
contains machine learning algorithms for data mining tasks. It is developed for contributing
to a theoretical framework for the field by Machine Learning Group at University of
Waikato, New Zealand. It composed of easy to use tools which can be applied directly to the
dataset. Data pre-processing, classification, regression, clustering, association rules, and
visualization are tools in WEKA. And also, well known classification algorithms such as
Neural Network, Bayesian, SVM and Decision Tree are available in this tool. It can either get
the data from a database or a file. The file format “.arff” and “.cvs” are supported by WEKA.
[32]
11.1.Experiments
The data mining tool WEKA was used for both feature selection and classification tasks.10fold-Cross validation method was used to train and test the classifiers. In 10-fold crossvalidation, the original sample is randomly partitioned into 10 subsamples. One of the
subsample is reserved as the validation data for testing the model, and the residual 9
subsamples are used as training data. The cross-validation process is then repeated 10 times,
with each of the 10 subsamples used exactly once as the validation and training data. [33]
The data set weretested by four Decision Tree algorithms which are C4.5, Random Tree,
Random Forest and Simple CART and the results wererecorded on a table. Then, the Feature
Selection methods wereapplied to the data set to determine non effective or comparably less
effective features and ineffectual featureswereremoved from data set. The new data set
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wastested by four Decision Tree algorithms and the results wererecorded on a table again.
This process wasrepeated whit elevendifferent feature selection methods which are listed
below. Totally, 48 different testswere done for this study and the total accuracy of each test
wasrecorded on a table (Table-3).
The tested Feature Selection methods:

Information Gain,

One-R Attribute Evaluator

Chi Squared Attribute

Principal Components
Evaluator

Filtered Attribute Evaluator

Relief Attribute Evaluator

Consistency Subset Evaluator

SVM Attribute Evaluator

Filtered Subset Evaluator

Symmetrical uncertainty Attribute
Evaluator

Gain Ratio Attribute Evaluator
Min
Max
Average
Evaluator
Symmetrical uncertainty Attribute
SVM Attribute Evaluator
Relief F Attribute Evaluator
Principal Components
One R Attribute Evaluator
Gain Ratio Attribute Evaluator
Filtered Subset Evaluator
Consistency Subset Evaluator
Filtered Attribute Evaluator
Chi Squared Attribute Evaluator
Information Gain
All Features (No Reduction)
11.2.Results
j48,( C4.5):
96,33 96,25 96,58 96,16 96,25 97,08 96,41 96,25 91,99 96,50 96,41 96,33 96,05 97,08 91,99
Random Forest
98,50 98,67 98,83 99,17 99,25 98,67 98,92 98,92 93,58 98,83 98,50 99,00 98,40 99,25 93,58
Random Tree
96,66 97,16 95,50 97,33 96,00 97,50 97,08 96,91 89,82 97,25 96,75 96,25 96,18 97,50 89,82
Simple CART
96,50 96,41 96,50 96,41 96,58 96,66 96,50 96,41 91,41 96,41 96,58 96,50 96,07 96,66 91,41
Average
97,00 97,12 96,85 97,27 97,02 97,48 97,23 97,12 91,70 97,25 97,06 97,02 96,68 97,62 91,70
Max
98,50 98,67 98,83 99,17 99,25 98,67 98,92 98,92 93,58 98,83 98,50 99,00 98,40 99,25 93,58
Min
96,33 96,25 95,50 96,16 96,00 96,66 96,41 96,25 89,82 96,41 96,41 96,25 96,05 96,66 89,82
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Table-3
The accuracy of the classifier varies from %89.82 to %99.25. The most successful algorithm
is Random Forest which can classify the data whit %99.25 accuracy by using feature
selection method “Consistency Subset Evaluator”.The Classification algorithms C4.5,
Random Tree and Simple CART classify the data with the similar accuracy, between %96.33
and %96.50.
Reducing the features by using feature selection methods does not considerably affect the
accuracy of the classification algorithms accept the “Principal Component”. Principal
Component decreases the classification success of all the algorithms which we test.Using
feature selection “Filtered Subset Evaluator” increases the success of C4.5, Random Tree and
Simple CART classification algorithms, but not considerable, less then %1.
Statistics information for Random Forest with the feature selection method Consistency
Subset Evaluator
Correctly Classified Instances: 1190- 99.2494 %
Incorrectly Classified Instances:9 - 0.7506 %
Kappa statistic
:0.9887
Mean absolute error
: 0.023
Root means squared error
: 0.087
Relative absolute error
: 5.1793 %
Root relative squared error
: 18.4468 %
Total Number of Instances
: 1199
362
Detailed Accuracy by Class
TP
FP Rate
Precision
Recall
F-Measure
Rate
Weighted
Average
ROC
Class
Area
0.990
0.005
0.990
0.990
0.990
0.998
Normal
0.995
0.003
0.995
0.995
0.995
0.998
Myopathy
0.992
0.004
0.992
0.992
0.992
0.999
Neuropathy
0.992
0.004
0.992
0.992
0.992
0.999
Confusion Matrix
Classified as
Normal
Myopathy
Neuropathy
Accuracy
396
2
2
%99.00
Myopathy
1
398
1
%99.50
Neuropathy
3
0
396
%99.25
Normal
Confusion Matrix shows that none of Neuropathy classifiedas Myopathy and the Myopathy is
classified with the maximum accuracy (%99.50) among the 3 classes.
11.3.Discussion
Our study shows that it is possible to implement an accurate automatic diagnostic system to
classify the EMG signals as Myopathy, Neuropathy and Normal by using Decision Tree
algorithms. All the Decision Tree based classification algorithms which we analyses in this
study can be used as classifier for creating such a system, but we recommended using
Random Forest, as classifier and “Consistency Subset Evaluator” among feature selection
363
methods for reducing the features. The performance of this system gives the maximum
accuracy (%99.25) among the others.The other Decision Tree based Classifiers C4.5,
Random Tree and Simple CART may be used without feature reduction. When the results are
compared at the Table-3,feature selection methods enhance the performance less than %1.
Among the feature reduction methods, we don’t suggest to use “Principle Component” for
selecting effective features, because it noticeably decreases the achievement of all
classification methods. It decreases the performance of Random Tree from % 96.66 to
%89.82.
12.CONCLUSION
This study shows that it is possible to design a high performance automatic diagnostic system
by using EMG signals which are taken from 27 different subjects. It is necessary to test our
system by using data set which is taken more than 200subjects.
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366
Stock market price index return forecasting using ANN
Gunter Senyurt, Abdulhamit Subasi
E-mail : [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
Even though many new data mining techniques have been introduced in prediction
estimation, there is still no single best solution to all financial problems. In this study, an
artificial neural network (ANN) model is utilized for predicting price index returns through
regression. Ten technical market indicators, seven macroeconomic variables, a couple of
other international market indices and a sliding window of ten inputs make up the 30
attributes used in this study. Different combinations of attribute sets is experimented with
different ANN model parameter values to find the highest forecasting accuracy.
Keywords: Price index return, ANN, Forecasting, Data Mining Techniques.
1. INTRODUCTION
While there are certain techniques to forecast in which direction the market would be moving
or what price levels would be expected, empirical evidence shows that some models work
better than the others in different cases (Satchell, 2005). It is of utmost importance for
investors to estimate the trend of the markets as precisely as possible in order to reach the
best trading decisions for their investments, so in this context it is in the investor's best
interest to use the most accurate time series forecasting model to maximize the profit or to
minimize the risk. All in all, it is a quite challenging job to make accurate predictions of stock
market index movements and model the time series data, especially in highly volatile markets
such as the Turkish stock market. That is due to the fact that stock markets are in general
chaotic and complex mechanisms with dynamic, nonlinear and nonparametric variables
(Abu-Mostafa and Atiya, 1996).
Moreover, markets are influenced by numerous
macroeconomic factors, institutional investor choices, human psychology, political events,
company policies, other stock market movements and economic affairs (Tan, Quek, and See,
2007). In this study, the ISE National 100 Index (XU-100) has been chosen for data analysis,
since the Turkish stock market is a relatively young emerging market and it has presented an
outstanding growth rate since its establishment in the late 80's. There is lots of empirical
work available in literature on well established and developed markets such as Dow Jones
(USA) or DAX (Germany), whereas little research material is available on new emerging
markets such as ISE (Kara, Boyacioglu, and Baykan, 2010). The Istanbul Stock Exchange is
highly volatile in terms of market returns, a feature which is attracting many local and
367
international investors worldwide seeking for high return possibilities (Armano, Marchesi,
and Murru, 2005). By means of this study, it is aimed at contributing to the demonstration
and verification of the XU-100 index price level predictability through ANN. The related
predicting performances are compared based on statistical criteria such as relative absolute
error (RAE), root relative squared error (RRSE) and the squared value of the correlation
coefficient
The remaining part of this study is organized into four sections. The next
section presents an overview of the theoretical literature while in section 3 the research data
and the structure of ANN is described. In section 4, the reports and results of empirical
findings from the comparative analysis are given. Finally, the last section contains the
concluding remarks.
2. Literature Review
There are various ANN methods that can be used in predicting stock price returns and a great
deal of research has been conducted on using ANN to forecast financial time series data
outputs suggesting ANN as a powerful tool in predicting stock market return (Avci, 2007;
Karaatli, 2005). Chen, Leung and Daouk (2003) used the probabilistic neural network (PNN)
which showed strong predictive power over other models such as the GMM-Kalman filter
and random walk. Diler (2003) who trained back propagation neural networks, based the
input attributes on some technical market indicators like momentum, moving average,
moving average convergence divergence (MACD), RSI and stochastic %K and forecasted the
ISE 100 index direction with % 60.81 accuracy while Altay and Satman (2005) also used
ISE-30 and ISE-ALL indices to see the performances of several neural network models. Cao,
Leggio, and Schniederjans (2005) effectively proved that multivariate neural networks could
outperform the linear models for stock price movement predictions of Shanghai Stock
Exchange listed companies.
3. Materials and Methods
3.1 Research Data
In this study, all experiments were conducted on WEKA software using its MLP built-in tool
to make comparisons of prediction performances based on the chosen dataset. The full dataset
is comprised of 30 input variables in total. The first 10 input attributes are technical market
indicators as used by Kara, Boyacioglu and Baykan (2010) which are 10-day moving
average, 10-day weighted moving average, momentum, stochastic %K, stochastic %D, RSI
(Relative Strength Index), MACD (moving average convergence divergence), Larry
William's %R, A/D (Accumulation/Distribution) Oscillator and CCI (Commodity Channel
Index). Another 10 inputs are mainly chosen from macroeconomic variables, consisting of
USD(sell)-Turkish Lira exchange rate, gold price (close), monthly interest rate, CPI
(consumer price index), WPI (wholesale price index), PPI (producer price index), Industrial
368
Production Index, DJI (Dow Jones) closing price, DAX (Germany) closing price and
BOVESPA (Brazil) closing price. These variables are slightly differently chosen than
Boyacioglu and Avci (2010)'s input variables. The final 10 inputs are a sliding window of the
last 10 elements of XU-100 closing price index. In Yumlu and Gurgen (2005) an input
window size of seven was used but it is preferred to use the last 10 elements in this study. For
the regression analysis, 10-fold cross-validation was used as the test option in WEKA.
3.2 Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model
Artificial neural networks are capable estimation models for financial modeling and
prediction (Kara, Boyacioglu, and Baykan, 2010). In this study, a three layered feed-forward
ANN structure (a multilayer perceptron) is used to forecast stock market index movements.
Multilayer perceptrons (MLP) have one or more layers between input and output layers,
called hidden layers, that can approximate any nonlinear relation to any accuracy given
sufficiently large number of neurons. The nonlinearity used in the nodes provides MLP with
a universal approximation power. “It has been scientifically proved that a three-layered MLP
using sigmoidal activation function can approximate well any continuous multivariate
function to any accuracy.” (Du and Swamy, 2006). MLP shows high efficiency in function
approximation for high-dimensional spaces. It has clear advantage over linear regression
methods in that the input dimensionality does not affect the error convergence rate, while
conventional linear regression methods suffer from the size of dimensionality. The most
popular learning rule in supervised learning is the back propagation learning algorithm which
is used to train the neural network. In order to minimize a cost function that is equivalent to
MSE (mean squared error) between the desired and actual network outputs, a gradient search
method is utilized. An input pattern is introduced to the system and the resulting computed
output is compared with the actual given output (target output). The error of each calculated
output is propagated backward that establishes a closed-loop control system which adjusts
weights by a gradient-descend based algorithm (Du and Swamy, 2006).
4. Results and Discussion
The relevance and quality of the data, usually, has a big impact on the performance of the
model used. Thus, the choice of data becomes the most important part in forecasting the
markets. In this study, all series are real-valued and the input data spans from 02/01/1997 to
31/12/2007. For WEKA testing, the statistical model adequacy metrics relative absolute error
(RAE), root relative squared error (RRSE), and the square of the correlation coefficient
are utilized, showing the ability of the model to capture the data. A dataset of 10, 20 and
30 inputs are tested in order to see which attribute set have better predictive power over the
others. Table 1 and 2 prove the effectiveness of the sliding window when used together with
technical indicator inputs creating much lower error values.
369
Table 1. MLP regression results (% relative absolute error values - % RAE).
# of neurons in the hidden layer(n)
Input Feature Sets
4
7
10
20
40
50
70
90
1
0.87
1.06
1.15
1.13
1.24
0.94
1.33
1.80
1.61
1.70
1.76
1.88
1.90
1.78
1.83
technical indicators
1.71
1.63
1.74
2
2.32
2
2
2.1
technical indicators + last 10
0.39
0.42
0.42
0.6
0.73
0.75
1.84
1.63
macroeconomic variables + last 10
3.46
3.35
3.33
3.41
3.55
3.60
3.41
8.9
technical indicators + macro
economic variables + last 10
economic variables
Table 2. MLP regression results (% root relative squared error - %RRSE).
# of neurons in the hidden layer(n)
Input Feature Sets
4
7
10
20
40
50
70
90
1.05
0.95
1.20
1.29
1.24
1.35
1.04
1.53
1.73
1.91
1.79
1.87
1.95
1.98
1.87
1.90
technical indicators
1.86
1.80
1.91
2.22
2.46
2.1
2.13
2.24
technical indicators + last 10
0.47
0.49
0.49
0.69
0.83
0.87
3.1
1.94
macroeconomic variables + last 10
3.81
3.70
3.70
3.79
3.96
4
3.91
18.9
economic variables + last 10
economic variables
370
Figure 1. MLP regression result for n=4 (4 neurons in the hidden layer) and
30 features (technical indicators+macroecon. variables+last 10 slid. window).
Figure 2.
MLP regression for n=4 (4 neurons in the hidden layer) and 30
features (technical indicators+macroecon. variables+last 10 sliding window).
5.CONCLUSION
371
The issue of accurately predicting the stock market price levels is highly important for
formulating the best market trading solutions. It is fundamentally affecting buy and sell
decisions of an instrument that can be lucrative for investors. This study focuses on
predicting the ISE National 100 closing price levels using ANN based on the daily data from
1997 to 2007. The experimental results give us some very important clues. Firstly, ANN
shows superior predicting power in forecasting the stock market price level index. MLP
presents 0.39 % RAE in its best case, which is a perfectly good outcome. Even though the
prediction performance of ANN outperforms studies alike in literature, it is still likely that the
forecasting performance of the model can still be improved by doing the followings: Either
the model parameters should be adjusted by thorough experimentation or the input variable
sets need to be modified by selecting those input attributes that are more realistic in reflecting
the market workings. (Kara, Boyacioglu, and Baykan, 2010) had already proved the
significance of using ten particular technical market indicators which gave also good results
in this study, as well. Besides, the use of a sliding window of the last ten elements of the ISE
100 index proved to be an effective tool in forecasting the market level and direction.
However, the seven macroeconomic variables and three other international market indices
were not found to be very useful in this study, which means that more appropriate variables
has to be found that may improve the forecasting performance of the models employed that
can be a further subject of study for interested readers.
Acknowledgement : We sincerely deliver our special thanks to Assist. Prof. Melek Acar
Boyacioglu for her graciousness in sharing her knowledge with us.
REFERENCES
Abu-Mostafa, Y. S., & Atiya, A. F. (1996). Introduction to financial forecasting. Applied
Intelligence, 6(3), 205–213.
Altay, E., & Satman, M. H. (2005). Stock market forecasting: Artificial neural networks and
linear regression comparison in an emerging market. Journal of Financial Management and
Analysis, 18(2), 18–33.
Armano, G., Marchesi, M., & Murru, A. A. (2005). Hybrid genetic-neural architecture for
stock indexes forecasting. Information Sciences, 170, 3–33.
Avci, E. (2007). Forecasting daily and sessional returns of the ISE-100 index with neural
network models. Journal of Dogus University, 8(2), 128–142.
Boyacioglu M.A., Avci D., (2010). An Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System
(ANFIS) for the prediction of stock market return: The case of the Istanbul Stock Exchange.
Expert Systems with Applications 37, 7908–7912.
372
Cao, Q., Leggio, K. B., & Schniederjans, M. J. A. (2005). A comparison between Fama and
French’s model and artificial neural networks in predicting the Chinese stock market.
Computers & Operations Research, 32, 2499–2512.
Chen, A. S., Leung, M. T., & Daouk, H. (2003). Application of neural networks to an
emerging financial market: Forecasting and trading the Taiwan Stock Index. Computers &
Operations Research, 30(6), 901–923.
Colby, Robert W. The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, McGraw-Hill, 2nd.
edition, 2003.
Diler, A. I. (2003). Predicting direction of ISE national-100 index with back propagation
trained neural network. Journal of Istanbul Stock Exchange, 7(25–26), 65–81.
Du K.-L., Swamy M.N.S., (2006). Neural Networks in a Softcomputing Framework,
Springer-Verlag.
Kara Y., Boyacioglu M.A., Baykan O.K., (2010). Predicting direction of stock price index
movement using artificial neural networks and support vector machines: The sample of the
Istanbul Stock Exchange. Expert Systems with Applications 38, 5311–5319.
Karaatli, M., Gungor, I., Demir, Y., & Kalayci, S. (2005). Estimating stock market
movements with neural network approach. Journal of Balikesir University, 2(1), 22–48.
Satchell, C., (2005). Pattern Recognition and Trading Decisions, McGraw-Hill.Tan, T. Z.,
Quek, C., & See, Ng. G. (2007). Biological brain-inspired genetic complementary learning
for stock market and bank failure prediction. Computational Intelligence, 23(2), 236–261.
Tan, T. Z., Quek, C., & See, Ng. G. (2007). Biological brain-inspired genetic complementary
learning for stock market and bank failure prediction. Computational Intelligence, 23(2),
236–261.
Weka, Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis, Version 3.7.3, The University of
Waikato Hamilton, New Zealand, 1999-2010.
Yumlu, S., Gurgen, F., Okay, N., (2005). A comparison of global, recurrent and smoothedpiecewise neural models for Istanbul stock exchange (ISE) prediction. Pattern Recognition
Letters 26, 2093–2103.
373
Stock market movement direction prediction using tree algorithms
Gunter Senyurt, Abdulhamit Subasi
E-mail : [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
One of the highly challenging businesses today is the task of forecasting the market
movements by examining the financial time series data as correctly as possible in order to
hedge against the almost incalculable risk involved and to yield better profits for investors. If
there was a highly credible estimation technique available giving better results than the
traditional statistical tools for financial markets, it would be a great asset for trading decision
makers of all kinds such as speculators, arbitrageurs, portfolio fund managers and even
individual investors. In this study CART, C4.5 and Random Forest algorithms were used to
predict the movement direction of a 10 year Istanbul Stock Exchange index (XU-100). Ten
technical market indicators such as momentum, MACD and RSI were used in this study as
the feature set.
Keywords: Price movement direction, CART, C4.5, Random Forest, forecasting, stock
market.
1. INTRODUCTION
The complex dynamism of the markets is characterized by the nonlinearity and
nonparametric nature of the variables influencing the index movement directions including
human psychology and political events. The unpredictable volatility of the market index
makes it a highly challenging task to accurately forecast its path of movement. On the other
hand, it is crucial for investors to estimate the trend of the markets as precisely as possible in
order to reach the best trading decisions for their investments, so in this context it is in the
investor's best interest to use the most accurate time series forecasting model to maximize the
profit or to minimize the risk. By means of this study, it is aimed at contributing to the
demonstration and verification of the XU-100 index movement path predictability through
some tree algorithms. The stochastic performance parameter is accuracy and it is defined as
the ratio of the correctly classified instances divided by the number of all instances. The
remaining part of this study is organized into four sections. The next section presents an
overview of the theoretical literature while in section 3 the research data and the structures of
tree algorithms CART, C4.5, Random Forest is described. In section 4, the reports and results
of empirical findings from the comparative WEKA analysis are given. Finally, the last
section contains the concluding remarks.
374
2. Literature Review
CART review
The classification tree analysis CART (classification and regression trees) is suggested first
by Breiman (1984) and uses the predictor variables splitting rule to build a binary decision
tree (Denison, Mallick and Smith, 1998). The CART method is experimented in the credit
scoring area, retail lending and evaluation of insurance risks in workers’ compensation
showing better results than logistic regression and discriminant analysis (Friedman 1991,
Devaney 1994, Lee 2006, Kolyshkina 2002).
C4.5 review
The C4.5 method is high in efficiency when used for inductive inference. Recent research has
shown that this algorithm produces high accuracy in image segmentation (Polat and Gunes,
2009; Mazid, Ali and Tickle, 2010). In another work a hybrid approach including C4.5 is
suggested with potentially high outcomes (Jiang and Yu, 2009; Mazid, Ali and Tickle, 2010).
It is also used for classification of remote sensing data (Yu and Ai, 2009; Mazid, Ali and
Tickle, 2010). Another variant of C4.5 successfully trimmed down the leaf node number and
improved accuracy (Yang, 2009; Mazid, Ali and Tickle, 2010).
Random Forest review
High-dimensional classification and regression problems can be approached by using random
forest algorithm that is extensively researched by Breiman (2001). Among the machine
learning techniques used to predict markets random forest is quite successful (Dietterich,
2000). Though the practicality of random forest is excellent it is hard to interpret and clarify
mathematically (Breiman, 2002; Lin and Jeon, 2006; Biau et al., 2008, Biau and Devroye,
2008).
3. Materials and Methods
CART method
CART constructs a tree where the data is separated into two parts by binary variable splits.
The best divider variable and the best point to split is determined by variance minimization.
The CART algorithm can be viewed as a classification procedure consisting of four distinct
parts:
Part 1: a variance criterion,
Part 2: the criterion how good it is split,
Part 3: the terminal node class assignments and estimates of resubstitution,
Part 4: determining the right tree complexity (Buyukbebeci, 2009).
375
The root node, internal nodes and leaf (terminal) nodes constitute the CART tree. Two child
nodes follow each root and internal node. Each node contains and is defined by the subset of
the original learning sample. The splitting of each node into child nodes is characterized by a
certain rule depending on the chosen feature. The child nodes inherit subsamples with
minimum variance that measures their heterogeneity from parent nodes (Iscanoglu, 2005).
The goodness of the splitting procedure is defined by an impurity function that is derived
from a a variance function which is applied to each split point indicating the best point for
splitting (Iscanoglu, 2005).
Gini, Entropy and Twoing are the main rules for binary recursive splitting that are derived
from the impurity function (Breiman, Frydman, Olshen and Stone, 1984)
C4.5 Method
In doing classification with C4.5, the concepts of entropy and correlation coefficient need to
be explained in brief. Entropy is a measure of uncertainty among random variables in a
collection of data or in other words entropy provides information about the behavior of
random processes used in data analysis. Correlation coefficient has its uses as a chief
statistical tool in data analysis finding the relationship between variable sets. Different ways
of calculations have been introduced to boost the efficiency of the correlation coefficient
among which are Kendall, Pearson’s and Spearman’s correlation coefficients.There are
several test options with WEKA providing data classification such as training set, supplied
test set, percentage split and cross validation. In this paper, cross validation is chosen as the
test option (Mazid M., Ali S. and Tickle K. (2010).
Random Forest method
Random forests are based on conjoining lots of binary regression trees. In the process of
growing these large number of regression trees independent subsets of variables are used.
Random forests randomly choose variables to split and a bootstrapped sample of the dataset
builds the decision trees (Efron and Tibshirani, 1993). When K trees are aggregated the
predicted decision is gained as the average value over these K trees. Marking each single tree
predictors by
, the final outcome is:
(x)
Research Data
In this study, all experiments were conducted on WEKA software using its tree classifiers
built-in tool to make comparisons of prediction performances based on the chosen dataset.
The dataset is comprised of 10 input variables with 2733 instances in total. These 10 input
attributes are technical market indicators as used by Kara, Boyacioglu and Baykan (2010)
which are 10-day moving average, 10-day weighted moving average, momentum, stochastic
%K, stochastic %D, RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (moving average convergence
divergence), Larry William's %R, A/D (Accumulation/Distribution) Oscillator and CCI
376
(Commodity Channel Index). The total number of cases or 2733 trading days have 1440 days
with increasing direction (advances), while 1293 days show decreasing direction (declines).
In the analysis, 10-fold cross-validation was used as the test option in WEKA.
4. Results and Discussion
The relevance and quality of the data, usually, has a big impact on the performance of the
model used. Thus, the choice of data becomes the most important part in forecasting the
markets. In this study, all series are real-valued and the input data spans from 02/01/1997 to
31/12/2007. For WEKA testing, the accuracy or correctly classified instances metric is
utilized, showing the ability of the model to capture the data. The dataset with 10 features is
tested using CART, C4.5 and Random Forest classifiers in order to see which tree algorithm
has better predictive power over the others. The results of the tests can be seen in the Table 1
where CART and Random Forest classifiers have almost identical prediction power, whereas
C4.5 has a little less prediction power compared to the other two tree algorithms.
Table 1. Tree Classifiers Test Results
% Accuracy (correctly classified instances)
CART
78.05
C4.5
77.29
Random Forest
78.23
5. CONCLUSION
The issue of accurately predicting the stock market price movement direction is highly
important for formulating the best market trading solutions. It is fundamentally affecting buy
and sell decisions of an instrument that can be lucrative for investors. This study focuses on
predicting the ISE National 100 closing price movement directions using tree algorithms
based on the daily data from 1997 to 2007. Even though the prediction performance of tree
classifiers such as CART, random forest and C4.5 do not really outperform studies alike in
literature, it is still likely that the forecasting performance of the models can still be improved
by doing the followings: Either the model parameters should be adjusted by thorough
experimentation or the input variable sets need to be modified by selecting those input
attributes that are more realistic in reflecting the market workings. (Kara, Boyacioglu, and
Baykan, 2010) had already proved the significance of using ten particular technical market
indicators which gave also about %78 accuracy in this study, as well. More appropriate
377
variables has to be found that may improve the forecasting performance of the models
employed that can be a further subject of study for interested readers.
Acknowledgement : We sincerely deliver our special thanks to Assist. Prof. Melek Acar
Boyacioglu for her graciousness in sharing her knowledge with us.
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GIS Integration And Evolution Into The Albanian System Education And Market
Hysenaj, M 1, Barjami, R. 2
1University of Shkodër, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography, Shkodër,
Albania
2University of Durrës, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Department of Economy, Durrës,
Albania
Abstract
This paper offers a general overview of GIS integration as a curricula and technology in the
Albanian Education System. Basically it presents the evolution history of this technology, the
development environment and the efforts of a closer approach to the state and private
institutions. A detailed analysis will be performed between the growing market needs in
Albania for GIS utilities and the handicap due to the lack of experts in geospatial technology.
Results of a questionnaire survey in the university areas will be presented, where students
expressed their approach to GIS technology. The need to build a complete chain of GIS
curricula beginning from secondary school level up to graduate and master programms is
necessary to be accomplished. Many problematic fields in Albania like flood management,
population census, transport, urbanization, pollution, turism, illegal constructions, professional orientation, etc which are subjects of topic interest in many universitary courses require
the use of GIS utilities. In this article it is discussed the position of GIS in the university
system and the major efforts departments must carry out in increasing interaction between
each other followed by a substantial intervention of the proper government institutions to the
benefit of GIS development. “Albania in the age of internet” is the latest reform the
government is implementing, with the scope of informing young people mainly in rural areas
to develop ICT infrastructure basically in public schools and state offices, which will have a
powerful impact in GIS developing technology in Albania.
Keywords: Gis, education, university, technology, department, curricula
1.INTRODUCTION
The role of higher education is to assist students in becoming effective thinkers with the
knowledge and skills that will lead them toward becoming meaningful contributors to society
[9]. Today, more and more schools are including GIS in their curricula to help their students
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gain valuable background knowledge and skills which they need to face global challenges.
Three are the main reasons GIS has known a rapid development in Albania especially in the
last years; education, internet and the growing market needs for geospatial data. For each of
these categories we are going to present a full picture containing their weak and strong points.
Meanwhile other countries had a faster approach to GIS technology, in Albania we found the
first signs of GIS usage about eighteen years ago. The first institution that decided to embrace
the implementation of a GIS system was the Science Geographic Academy of Albania in
1994, followed by the department of Geography near the University of Tirana in 1999 as a
single course part of the undergraduate program. Even though at a slow pace GIS profile has
evolved since then. Nowadays GIS is integrated as a single course in the undergraduate
program in the Universities of Shkodra and Gjirokastra in the departments of Geography,
Architecture and Urban Planning, Geodesy, Computer Sciences and Geology departments in
the university of Tirana, but it still remains part of the undergraduate program.
Once again the department of Geography in Tirana advanced forward by integrating GIS
subject as part of a graduate program at the Proffessional Master level. But we have to ask
ourself: Is that enough? How come that besides the great potential this technology affords,
the vast usage in some of the crucial sectors governments dispose, the known advantages in
the education field in enforcing group collaboration, increasing students creatitvity and
interactivity, offering methodologies in gathering, analyzing and outputting data, coming to
concrete results and conclusions, building complex reports and diagrams in a short time
period, helping decision-making and understanding situations, enlarging human knowledge in
an upper level, institutions in Albania are still doubtful in approaching this technology. Today
more than ever Albania is facing specific circumstances that require GIS implementation in
finding solutions and also helping decision-making.
2.GIS Education in Albania
Geographic Information Systems in higher education provide an integrated solution to assist
faculties and students with their educational goals. The advance of GIS has opened up
millions of employment opportunities. More than 3,000 colleges and universities have
developed excellent courses and certificate and degree programs in GIS [10]. GIS has a vast
extent starting from government level down to municipality or commune. In the state
universities of Albania GIS is introduced only as a single general course called Geographical
Information Systems, including this way a compressed program that many times results to be
inadequate to be acquired by students. The main reason of this phenomenon is the fact that
GIS is developed only at a single level in the Albanian Education Institutions which is the
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state university. The lack of the subject development at the secondary school level is the
primary reason of such a handicap. The major problem is the lack of geospatial information.
In Albania only few institutions have operational GIS databases. We are facing the fact that
mostly of geographic data is owned by private agencies for their personal needs, using
inconsistent data which is mostly not updated. Inadequate development of geospatial
technology is also closely connected with the evolution of computer science. In 2009, as
reported in Figure 1, among 9478 students graduated in public universities, only 171
belonged to computer science profile [5].
Figure 1: Computer Science attendance toward (compared) other fields
Still, it remains determinant the increasing role the government is playing through substantial
reforms which aim to develop internet utilities in a large scale environment in Albania. The
results are optimistic, during the last two years in the department of Informatic in the
University of Tirana the number of students applying for computer science increased from 70
to 500 students.
Departments can and should integrate into their annual programs GIS course. The stimulation
point can be succeeded by orienting GIS utilities into the current problematic situations.
Departments can find it easier te embrace geospatial technology as a solution possibility to
their barriers. Biology department can benefit from GIS by studying the degradation process
the lake of Shkoder is facing day after day, accompanied by radical changes in vegetation and
animal life. Geography department can better approach analysis to flood management in the
districts of Shkoder and Lezha. Inundations have become endemic to the region, causing
huge economic and social damages [8]. On the other side transport problems, pollution,
illegal construction, minerary, deforestation, urbanization, population census are only a few
of the many topics that can use GIS as an analytical tool in their specific scientific discipline
by the respective departments in the Albanian Universities.
Dealing with geospatial data is strictly connected with terrain practice. This way we can
develop students concept and knowledge about GIS structure and give a sense to their
theoretical conceptions. Unfortunately we have not reached this stage, which remarks us
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(specialists of the field) the essential task of digitizing the Albanian territory with updated
geospatial information [1]. First of all this process needs the government enrollment which
must be the primary support in fulfilling this mission basically by covering finanacial, logistic
and technical aspect. Second it is important the collaboration between universities and private
agencies offering their field experts. Actually laboratory practices are limited up to data
manipulation and not data creation. Which means that we do not have the proper conditions
to accomplish a full map process including data collection, data processing and output.
Another problematic situation students have to face is the lack of teaching materials. Actually
there are only a few books translated into Albanian language that address topics connected to
GIS. These books contain basic GIS principles, technical and management issues, remote
sensing, digital mapping.
A set of surveys, as shown in Figure 2 and 3, involving 1000 students were made. The
outcome of this surveys intended to define the relation between their approach toward GIS as
a concept and GIS utilities.
Figure 2: Results of approach toward Web Pages based on GIS Software
The results were very interesting. In the first survey students were asked to mention three of
their most used web sites. The top five were ranked. Interestingly “Google Map” is among
these web sites. Which means that students are looking forward to interact with dynamic
maps and not just navigate in the internet. Also these students where asked about their
knowledge of the term GIS. From the results we see that 87% of them didn’t know what GIS
meant, 11% were familiar to the concept and only 2% of them had the chance to use GIS
utilities. This is a meaningful contrast to the fact that students use GIS applications like
Google Map, Google Earth, etc but are not aware of the concept of dynamic maps.
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Figure 3: GIS integration into the University Environment
According to statistics it results that among many annual conferences that take place in
Albania none of them refers to Geographic Information Systems as a primary field or topic to
relay on. This induce the necessity of paying greater attention by the departments in
introducing step by step GIS as a modern and undisputed technology. Gradually it is
neccesary to start from several national conferences followed by international ones. Also
another issue is the fact that students prefer to avoid GIS profile subjects as a possible theme
during their master thesis (either professional or scientific) defending. So far no such thesis
has been deposited near the departments archive. This is another delicate point which requires
the intervention of the Ministry of Education (MASH).
3.GIS Exploitation Environment
The Albanian population and Housing census held in October 2011 after ten years from the
last one (2001) is another determinant factor in evolving geospatial technology. The overall
objective of the project is to contribute to the strengthening of the Albanian statistical system.
In Albania the need for a census is perhaps greater than anywhere else, and the extracted
information will be of great importance to many departments subjects like geography,
statistic, history, engineering, politic, etc. It will have an immediate effect on policies, but it
will also provide material for further profound studies. GIS is the perfect platform to hold,
manage and analyze all the data, also to produce important diagrams and reports reflecting
the geographical distribution of the population in Albania in the recent years. According to
statistics it is thought that during January 2011 Albanian finally passed from a rural to urban
country. There is also an important evolution in fertility, since on average families nowdays
have fewer children than before. The profound changes in the health system also have had its
effects on the age distribution. The outcome of the census will answer many important
questions on various issues. This way GIS turns out to be the perfect tool that will finally
integrate these data into dynamic maps which with allow us not only make parallelisms
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between periods but also produce better results in comparison to the previous used softwares
like Excel, etc.
After flood inundation in Shkoder during 2010, 2011 from the World Bank has been granted
a fund of €50.000 for the construction of the laboratory of researches for natural hazards
management which will be administrated by the department of Geography in the University
of Shkoder. The scope of the laboratory is intended not only for research, acquisition,
integration, management, analysis and presentation of spatial data but also to provide for the
students suitable conditions for developing their theoretical and practical background on
advanced GIS technologies. This is the first project to be initiated under the survey of an
academic institution for an important issue such as flood rather than any government unit.
This trend aims to be a future incentive for other departments to create a parallel operating
level system with those supervised by the ministery. On the other hand it puts in evidence the
need for re-training teachers to integrate their concepts and technology into the spatial
decision process.
4.GIS Market in Albania
In Albania, as shown in Figure 4, there are 38 private universities and 11 state universities
which make a total of 49 universities for a population of 3.2 million. According to statistics
[5] for the last 10 years more than 65 thousand students graduated but only 16 thousand could
get employed. This category tend to manage mainly through small private business activities
in a competitive environment which requires high qualification and effective performance in
retreiving valuable information from the sorrounding area, save traces of where customers or
other competitive businesses are distributed, plan a marketing campaign, optimize sales
territory, etc. Due to this situation GIS course turns out to be a sustainable support to their
background knowledges which will lead them to a successful performance.
GIS allows interactivity, querying, makes us understand better and evaluate the data by
creating graphical presentation through information derived from databases [1]. The
economic crisis that has affected the world in recent years has made it possible for many
organizations to restructure their operating practices. Many of these businesses are aware of
finding new ways to develop their activities, primarily through internal sources. Now is the
time to invest in geographic information systems, a solution that has helped many
organizations to overcome their operational challenges and increase profits.
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Figure 4: Private University development (2003-2011)
Source: INSTAT
According to statistics only in private universities we find 229 curriculas included into
different levels of programs like Bachelor, Master of Science or Proffesional Master. The
contrast in this scenario is that during the last five years the number of private universities in
Albania has almost decuplicated but none of them offers a GIS course.
Many of the Albanian private universities have close connections with homologue Europian
Universities including student professional exchange, mutual experience exchange, revealing
a clear tendency in strictly approaching their way of management and administration of the
study process. Despite everything it is clearly visible their policy consists in avoiding
geoscience subjects. Regardless their vision they stand as business institutions which try to
find the best products to offer to the market. Being the first to understand the major market
needs, private institutions insist in neglecting GIS potential in the Albanian mart. They focus
on social and economic curriculas which actually are easier to integrate and adopt rather than
hazard to involve students into a course that still suffers from government indifference in
launching this “product” on the market and at the same time simulate private companies in
embracing the idea of GIS position.
This scenario reflects their pessimistic point of view according to GIS technology. Their
choice not to introduce GIS into their curricula makes us believe that although GIS usage in
Albania has evolved and has found more space in the Albanian market than before, private
university boards are still doubtful of its real capabilities and potential.
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Up to now Albanian market has been handled from a range of people that have been a kind of
“forced-adopted” experts in environment conditions who suffered from the lack of real geoinformatic experts. That’s why very often geospatial tasks have been performed from
geographers who had little informatic knowledge or vice-versa from technic informaticians
who held the responsibility to manipulate and manage geographic information, producing a
range of non-professional results.
Nowadays the market in Albania is eager in finding new human resources specialised in
geospatial information management which can help them solve many important issues getting
away from simple techniques used lately. The Digital Albania program is one of the many
future projects that require GIS experts. State institutions like the prefecture, municipality,
commune, private organizations and many other NPO’s are more than ever aware about the
great importance of dynamic maping and satellite imageries, followed by the integration of
these concepts and technology into the spatial decision making processes in the country.
Especially last years Albanian institutions faced a vigorous interaction with Europian
agencies. Many funds have been granted with the scope of developing research projects
towards problematics affecting Albania. Many of these projects need accurate data of the
territory mainly geospatial information. This leads to an increasing demand for dynamic
maps and as a result of GIS utilities.
5.Internet Evolution
The evolution of GIS in Albanian has been strictly connected to the evolution of Internet. The
number of Internet users is an important indicator because it reflects the spread of
information technology in one place, and information exchange globally [1]. Actually
Albanian government is following a strong policy named “Albania in the age of the internet”,
which aims to push Albania among the countries with the highest internet usage in Europe.
This has caused an immediate affect not only in the extend of internet distribution but also in
laboratory equipments. Internet conditions as speed, availability, price and professionalism
had a great improvement. Also almost all secondary schools have been equipped with new
laboratories. This has caused a closer approach to the internet as far as the students are
concerned, and online softwares like “Google Earth”, “Google Map”, or Esri applications
which only a couple of years ago were unknown for many people, now have turned familiar,
easy to use and manage.
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The World Economic Forum (WEF) has published a global report according to which
Albania has improved its global ranking of The Networked Readiness Index 2012 by 19
places within a year positioning itself in the 68-th place gaining the right ta be part among the
ten most improved countries in the NRI. This index has been calculated based on four
primary sub-indexes which are: the regulatory-politic for the information technology,
improvement of digital infrastructure; management of e-skills and services; using information
technology by the population, biznes or government units; social and economic impact.
Technology primary sub-index sectors (Comparative level 2011-2012)
Rank
Increase
Political and regulatory environment for the information technology, infrastructure
Management of e-skills and services
13
24
Using information technology by the population, biznes or government units
17
Social and economic impact of the technology
18
Figure 5: Technology profile sectors, increase position, (2011-2012)
Source: World Economic Forum: Albania
The Internet and Communication Technology sector is rapidly expanding in Albania because
it is both a stand-alone sector as well as a cross-cutting enabling technology for other
industries [11]. Basically we have the neccesary tools to aim at developing GIS image in the
market and institutional levels. Another element of minor impact in the development of GIS
technology is the integration of GPS systems through a law recently approved in Albania by
which the custom duties for cars has been removed. This way the percentage of imported cars
produced recent years has increased rapidly, most of these cars have GPS systems included.
6.CONCLUSIONS
Due to many indicative factors in the past geospatial technology missed the evolution
backbone in Albania. The integration process walked through small steps which didn’t show
to be determinant. The set of surveys show that the environment is ready for approaching this
technology. Conditions are already mature, the increasing role the government is playing
through substantial reforms toward internet extension, the vast expansion of educative
institutions like private universities followed by the growing market needs for geospatial data
and experts, creates the perfect circumstances for a sustainable GIS development.
On the other hand the primary role in the integration process must be played by public
universities. A series of steps need to be taken, beginning from a deeper interest from MASH
in giving the right priority by increasing universities funds in building modern GIS
laboratory, which is the backbone to start every GIS project in the future. By doing this
universities have the obligation to increase collaboration between each other for the benefit of
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GIS development. It is necessary to build a continuos chain of GIS curriculum programs
starting from secondary school, followed by several courses during undergraduate and
especially graduate programs, ending with a closer approach of the students side during their
thesis defending. To achieve a full education process a final step must be taken, including
these students in training programms near GIS departments in countries with more experience
in the field. Only by accomplishing this cicle we will be able to set the knowledge of these
students into a higher level and make them able to build the future platform of Albanian GIS
experts.
REFERENCES
Hysenaj, M., Geographical Information Systems, Shkoder, Albania, 2011.
Johansson, T., GIS in Teacher Education – Facilitating GIS Applications in Secondary
School Geography, 2010, pp. 66-67.
Tempus, Final Report: Higher Education in Albania, 2010, pp. 23-27.
Open Data Albania, January 15, 2012, http://open.data.al.
Institute of Statistics Albania, January 23, 2012, http://www.instat.gov.al/.
Cabuk A., Ayday, C., GIS Education in Turkey, 2004, pp. 90-91.
Kerski J., Developments in Technologies and Methods in GIS In Education, 2008, pp. 35-38.
Nikolli, P., Idrizi, B., Geodetic and Cartographic Education in Albania, 2007, pp. 72-75.
Esri, GIS in Education: http://www.eagle.co.nz/GIS/Training/GIS-in-Education/.
Education and Science: http://www.gis.com/content/education-and-science.
http://www.rritjealbania.com
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Commercial Websites Evaluation
Zeid Hazem, Meliha Handzic
International Burch University, Faculty of Economics
E-mails.: [email protected]
Abstract
The paper presented roughly consists of three parts, as follows:
Finding a criteria to evaluate a commercial website
Selecting a website and applying criteria
Comments and improvement advice
First task was to find suitable criteria by which the site is to be evaluated; through extensive
research on the internet regarding web site criteria and business sites in general we have
found out what makes the business web such a powerful medium for approaching your
customers. The availability and growth of the Internet offers use the opportunity to find
information and data from all over the world. Internet resources, in particular World Wide
Web resources, continue to proliferate at an astonishing rate. This is especially true for
commercial web sites which as some experts state, grow at an astonishing rate of one per
every 3 seconds!
Keywords: e-business, website design, website evaluation criteria
1.INTRODUCTION
To successfully create the (commercial) presence on the web, it is necessary to be aware of
the users – customers.
The internet works both ways - It is possible for almost anyone to place anything on the
Internet. Viral marketing can, with lightning speed, spread the word about your product, be it
good or bad.
Users appreciate quality and credibility.
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Users are security sensitive, and especially so when they want to purchase over the
internet.
Users look for some fixed points or anchors to lead them through the content of the page.
Users follow intuition when browsing; they do not like to follow a linear pattern provided
by a site.
Users are impatient and insist on instant gratification.
Users should be motivated for them to revisit the website
To be able to effectively present the product to the customer you need to pursue the following
principles of user psychology
Don’t make users think , Don’t squander users patience ,Manage to focus users attention ,
Strive for feature exposure , Make use of effective writing , Strive from simplicity , Don’t be
afraid of the white space , Communicate effectively with a visible language , Conventions are
our friends , Security and privacy are of highest importance, the presence of the company's
website on the internet must be known to the target audience.
2.MATERIAL AND METHODS
2.1 Criteria for Evaluation
Out of the many criteria we found the following to properly evaluate the content of the
website.
2.1.1.Purpose
The website hast o have a clear purpose. Whether it is an educational site, an internet
multimedia presentation, search portal or commercial site different rules of design an
organization apply.
2.1.2.Audience
Who is the implied audience for the site? From the homepage of a site, the user of the web
should be able to identify the general audience for whom the site is developed.
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2.1.3.Functionality
Functionality is the use of technology on the site. Good functionality means the site works
well. It loads quickly, has live links, and any new technology used is functional and relevant
for the intended audience. The site should work cross-platform and be browser independent.
Highly functional sites anticipate the diversity of user requirements from file size, to file
format and download speed. The most functional sites also take into consideration those with
special access needs.
2.1.4.Organizational
Is the organizational scheme appropriate, A Web document that has a vast tree of links is
difficult to navigate and overwhelming to the eye. Is there a consistent look and feel from one
page to another? - Visual similarities in all sections.
Navigation
Navigation through the website should be an effortless process. Transferring from one part
of the website to another should be an intuitive process and the user should not be. The
website has to have clear anchor points around which the web site is structured.
2.1.5.Accessibility
The website should allow easy access to the products it is trying to sell, and use other
resources like search engines or web apps to promote this goal.
2.1.6.Uniqueness
Uniqueness and originality of the web site is not mandatory but can help to attract visitors
and promote a different image of the company in the industry. However commercial sites are
limited in their creativity because the purpose of the site is not to be original but to best
promote the product it is based for.
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2.1.7.Design & Style
the general appeal of the website can be improved by its design it must never take second
place to the functionality of the site itself. It must be taken into consideration what is the
purpose of the graphical content on the web page, The visual image of the site should match
accordingly so that the look and feel is similar while transitioning the page. Lastly but not
least importantly the design of the web site should extend the company image and adhere to
target audience.
2.1.8.Multimedia
Good web sites weave together relevant text, audio, video, and still images to give users a
rich experience. Multimedia content has to be adjusted to be compatible with users with low
bandwidth speeds and different browsers.
2.1.9.Security and Privacy
If your website collects sensitive information from your customers, you should use security
systems like SSL (Secure Socket Layer). This guarantees that the data provided by your
customer will not fall into the hand of a malicious hacker while transferring from his
computer to the web server. If your site is planning to use cookies, make sure that you
covered this aspect in your privacy policy too.
2.1.10Website
The website we chose to evaluate is a site held by the company HORSEFEATHERS™ and
can
be found on the internet address www.horsefeathers.eu
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HORSEFEATHERS™ was originally founded in 1989 in British Columbia, Canada as a
brand who started selling specific sports apparel or so called “outerwear”, intended for
snowboarders and skateboarders.
The website was launched in 2001 and it follows the industry standard in that it is completely
revamped twice a year to reflect the winter and summer seasons (snowboard and skateboard).
3.DISCUSSION
To evaluate this site we will view through each of the criteria defined in the previous part .
Purpose
Purpose of any commercial website which sells finite products is to act as an interactive shop
window . The site offers other information like NEWS, BLOG and even INTERVEW and
VIDEO archive but the main part of the page is dedicated to showcase its products.
3.1.Audience
It is clear from the start that the site is oriented towards the younger generation. With its
stylized graphics and action shots it appeals to the specific nature of the sports it represents.
Interviews and blogs are conducted with young up-coming stars in their respectable sports,
and as such appeal to the population who view these activities as more than just a hobby. To
them these people are their role models and a connection to the brand is a great marketing
strategy.
3.2.Functionality
The content of the site is well balanced, the graphics are of high quality but not such that can
severely hamper the users with slower internet connection. The multimedia content provided
can be viewed in different resolutions which a customer can choose, and the only requirement
for the site to be seen is to have Adobe flash installed , which is pretty much the industry
standard. The web page looks identical in Firefox, Explorer and Chrome, three predominant
internet browsers
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3.3.Organization& Navigation
The organizational units that compose the site are available from the first page of the web
site and remain available when navigating through it. It is commendable that the site decided
to abandon the idea of pop-ups upon entry and language selection page at the beginning. We
believe that these components detract from experiencing the website. The organization is
roughly divided in three parts the top layer that contains the links to every part of the web
site, the middle window where the majority of the content is displayed and the bottom layer
which gives additional links and information. The whole promotional part of the website is
done flawlessly because each part of the website is accessible from no more than 3 clicks,
The shopping part is done with a bit less finesse, the simple and clean promotional page is
left and is replaced with a clunky interface where all the product are piled up In endless
columns. This leaves the user at question because suddenly the access to the rest of the
content is cut off, category links have switched places and the user is once again doomed to
make use of a scroll bar. This whole switch would be easy to forget if the access to content
made up for it but in contrast it even becomes difficult to seek the product you need. But this
is a topic for accessibility of content.
3.4.Accessibility
The promotional part of the website is exemplary in its access to content. Already mentioned
in organizational part the product are clicks away to access and make browsing through them
a fun experience. By clicking on the desired piece of clothing it is automatically shown on
the model. It is a great system and since in these kind of sports apparel is basically bought to
complement the kind of gear you already possess (the color of the board, boots and bindings
for example) this becomes a necessity.
3.5.Uniqueness
In terms of uniqueness the page is not entirely different from its rivals (One could even argue
that they are more similar than different f.e. www.nitrousa.com, www.burton.com) but that is
not necessarily a weakness. The products are the centerpiece of the pages and everything else
supports that idea.
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3.6.Design & Style
It is immediate from the first view of the page that the site has a crisp youthful design. The
predominant color is white with brightly colored links and fitting graphic. The idea of
product based sites most times is for the web page to blend into the background while the
product is put in front and the character of products (bright unnatural colors on white
background – snow) creates a perfect setting for that effect. The graphic images are presented
with a stylish pencil drawn background and the configuration option I presented with
mechanical sounds and futuristic letters which improves the experience. The shopping part of
the page is presented in a style that neither improves nor hampers the shopping.
3.7.Multimedia
The web page is modest in its multimedia content and that Is not a bad thing. The interviews
and rider videos are easily accessible but not forced onto customers. The videos use a third
party video repository Video similar to YouTube but a favorite among fans of extreme sports.
The configuration part of the page was done using Adobe Flash technology
Security and privacy
Shopping on the web page can be done in three ways ( via Credit Card , via PayPal , via Bank
transfer )These steps satisfy the needs of most customers who desire to purchase over the
web. Using credit card is the easiest way but carries the risk of online transactions present
everywhere on the internet. The shopping is done on a secure html page as per industry
standard. PayPal is more secure in that way that the credit card info is inserted sometime
before and the customer is just using his PayPal account. This method requires an active
PayPal account however. The last option is direct bank transfer which is the most
cumbersome but most reliable way and it does not require a credit card. The shipping is free
to all users who order a total sum of over 300 Euros.
4.CONCLUSION
the web page is a good concept, it has a lot of room for improvement, and with proper
improvement the web page with its Configuration could become a big success. Improvements
could be made in shopping section, which needs to be redesigned to match, other sections of
this web page and it needs to be simpler and easier for common usage. Aside to this, their
web catalog needs to be redesigned and reorganized to meet modern shopping standards. The
entire web page logic needs to be revised; additional features need to be included into
Configuration section which would make shopping easier and more efficient. The web page
has a lot of potential, and with proper improvements it could become a big hit and it could
bring a lot of money to shop owner.
396
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Miller, L. (2009). MIS Cases: Decision Making With Application Software. Prentice Hall.
397
A Suggestion for Forestry: Assigning Idle Public Lands to Private Sector by Projecting
and Provisioning
Mustafa Durman,Murat Fatih Köymen
F.E.&A.S. of DPÜ
E –mails: [email protected],[email protected]
Abstract
Land is a widespread natural resource and commonly used by humans. It is commonly used
distributed for agriculture, forestry, urbanization, resting, transportation and settling. Land is
not a renewable resource and is under the threat of erosion, polluting and salinization because
of agricultural irrigations. In consequence of increasing population and industrialization
wetlands, agricultural lands and forests are used for settlement and industrial areas.
Maximizing utility of resources is an essential issue for environmental economics. Thus
maximizing utility of land uses is an essential issue for land using strategies. When viewed
from this aspect it is obvious that land areas of a country are shared by public (state) and
private sectors. In public areas forest areas have an important share.There are enormous
amount of areas which are owned by state but they are waiting idle. In this paper after
analyzing present administrations we will make a suggestion. We will focus on assigning
these idle areas to private sector for forestry use. It is hoped that this assignment will
contribute the problems of unemployment, income, cleaning the atmosphere, preventing
erosion and input for industrial production. Despite the subsidies, private foresting is
inadequate. We will suggest publicizing investors by projecting the proper lands, subsidizing
and presenting economic potentials of these areas.
1.INTRODUCTION
Forests create distinctive climates on large land masses. Organisms forming forests are trees
lives on significant altitudes, soil and density, bushes, alga, fern, mushrooms, underground
and surface microorganisms, insects and animals (Ayanoğlu 1999). The 6831 numbered
forest law defines as “Trees growing naturally or by planting and woods are ranked as forests
with their land areas. But…” Then the law defines exceptions.
Forests occupy an important place in human life. They are one of the most important
renewable raw materials and energy resources. Forests clean the weather and protect the
moisture balance of atmosphere. Because they oxygenate for carbon dioxide balance forests
398
are essential. Forests decrease the negative effects of drought, frost, high temperature,
spankings and protect earth against erosion. They help protecting plant and animal diversity.
Forests as a natural resource which are subject to distribution between generations should be
protected for future generations while providing today’s human needs (Aras, Çalışkan 2004).
Forests are natural resources which affect water and earth regimes, economy, the need of
recreation, climate and health positively (Korkmaz 2010).
While reviewing contributions of forests economically it is possible to divide these like
pecuniary and non pecuniary contributions. Timber based first order forest products, non
timber based second order products, decreasing effect on difference between regional
development levels, contribution to other sectors and positive effect on balance of payments
can be examples to their pecuniary contributions. On the other hand their help on climate,
water and soil can be examples to their non pecuniary contributions (Ormanlarımızın
Faydaları OGM).
2.Material and Method
Literature review on forestry and private forestry is made and works on this field are tried to
be presented. Share of private forests on world and Turkey will be revealed by percentage.
Subsidies for private forestry in Turkey, the expectations of private afforestators, sum of
private afforestation in last years will be revealed and will be tried to analyze the disruptions.
Then with a review, a suggestion will be enhanced.
2.1.Findings
Forests are not homogenous on natural diversity and property basis. Forests grow without
human effort is called natural forests and forests planted by humans are called artificial
forests. They can be described in three ways. Forests which help the protection of water, earth
and climate are defined as conservation forests. These cannot be operated. Forests which help
tourism, help recreation need, embody natural beauties and serves science and art are defined
as national parks. Operating these parks is tied to strict rules. Forests which are used for
harvesting forest products are defined as operation forests (Korkmaz 2010).
All world attach importance to forests and there are researches for utilizing from them more
efficiently. The idea ‘private forestry increases efficiency of producing, management and
protection’ spreads. Some countries extend private forestry with respect to this idea. The
proportions of private forests in the continental basis are: Africa 2%, Asia 5%, South
America 17%, Oceania 24%, North and Central America 30% (Yeşildağ 2009). “Percentage
of forests in total land area for countries: Germany 31.5%, Austria 47%, Spain 51.3%,
Sweden 68.1%, Finland 77.8%, and the world average is 40.9%” (Korkmaz 2010). Countries
appreciate both forests and private forestry. Thanks to this appreciation and subsidies
399
percentage of private and public corporationforests in total forest areas in Germany 42%,
Spain 61%, Sweden 71%, Finland 71%. But in Turkey it is only about 1% (Korkmaz 2010).
According to Orman Genel Müdürlüğü (General Directorate of Forestry) the view of
afforestation efforts in world and Turkey are like this: 24% of world forests are private
forests. This percentage reaches to 61% in EU (VII. Five Year Development Plan). In Turkey
99.5% of forests are belong to state. The percentage of registered private forests is only
0.05% (URL2).
Turkey’s location on world is very proper for afforestation. 75% of Anatolian lands were
forests ten thousands years ago but unfortunately today it is 26%. Sufficient productive
forests are only 14% of Anatolian area. A country can be counted as a rich forest country she
should have 33% forest of total lands. Therefore Turkey’s forests are not enough with this
statistics (Seval Aras, meb, 182). If we look at Turkey’s forests 27% of forests are marsh
forests (19% non yielding, 8% yielding), 73% woods (31% non yielding, 42 yielding)
(Ormanlarımızın Faydaları, OGM).
Ağaçlandırma Genel Müdürlüğü (General Directory of Forestation) defines private
forestation like this: “Properties protected and utilized by owner; non yielding forest lands,
idle forest lands, treasury lands, properties of individuals and corporations; which are
projected and approved by Ministry of Environment and Forestry are “private forestation””
(URL2). Figures which can afforest are: Village Corporations, Municipalities, Public
Institutions and Corporations, Agricultural Development co-ops, Village Serving Units,
Chambers, Clubs, Foundations, Commercial Corporations and Individuals. There is no
difference between private forestation as an individual or corporation in Turkey.
Subsidies given to private forestation by General Directory of Forestry: In purpose of private
forestation grants given to village corporations and loans given to individuals or other
corporations. Groups can get grants or loans are;
-Land clearing (clearance of undesirable ground cover of area and plowing),
-Sowing and planting costs,
-Seedling (grafted or ungrafted) and seed costs,
-Barbed tape, fence, surrounding wall costs,
-3 year maintenance costs,
-Projecting costs,
-Pruning costs,
-Grafting costs,
Grants or loans are assigned by General Directory according to General Directory of
Forestation and Erosion Control’s constant prices with regard to projected work’s amount.
After project is done interim payments are given. Therefore projectors should sign an
400
obligation or estate mortgage. For obligation there should be two respected and solidary
bailsmen and public notary approval. Bailsmen should be registered to Commercial or
Industrial Chambers or Craftsman’s Associations. (URL3). Loans given for trees like pine,
cedar and fir will be paid after the end of 30th year as only capital. Loans given for trees like
walnut, chestnut and pistachio will be paid after the end 15th year with an interest rate which
equals 1/7 of T.C. Ziraat Bank’s agricultural loan interest rate for small business stock
(URL3).
Despite these subsidies private forestators have some demands:
-To be informed by experts about buying seedlings, planting and maintaining,
-Faster bureaucratic transactions for subsidies,
-Increase in loan unit prices or increase in number of components
-After reaching a point of land area permission to build a wooden shelter for tools,
-Disengage village headmen and abolish the need of their permission,
-Grants or loans should be given by a unique institution,
-Permission to graft for olive groves,
-Permission to second order plants and their loaning (Özkurt, A., Yeşilkaynak, B)
The results of private forestation efforts in last 10 years in Turkey are given below.
Year
State
Forests Treasury
(decare)
(decare)
2002
17,110
4,851
29
21,990
2003
43,177
6,228
25
49,430
2004
77,683
6,344
2,213
86,240
2005
90,535
10,178
4,317
105,030
2006
69,611
37,241
3,168
110,020
2007
55,663
22,987
3,250
81,900
401
Areas Private
(decare)
Areas Total
(decare)
2008
77,759
11,217
1,364
90,340
2009
71,858
18,337
5,155
95,350
2010
145,581
16,116
11,363
173,060
2011
70,785
7,909
6,966
85,660
Total
719,762
141,408
37,850
899,020
Table 1: The Results Of Private Forestation Efforts In Last 10 Years In Turkey
Source:URL3
Despite the subsidies private forestations are not even 100.000ha/year in last ten years.
There are 3,715,642 real estates registered to Turkish Treasury with an areas 211,151 km2.
This area is 25.92% of Turkey’s total land surface. Only 651,585 of these areas are allocated.
These areas are 13.39% of Turkey’s total land surface. Therefore Turkey’s lands’ 12.53% is
waiting idle or utilized illegally (URL4).
3. Review and Conclusion
Pecuniary and non pecuniary benefits of forests and forestation are indicated above. Plus
these benefits while a country has a serious problem of unemployment and low income
problem laying aside these areas idle doesn’t seem rational. If the present administrative
applications are not enough then disruptions and inabilities should be determined, problems
should be asked to investors. And then the precautions believed to solve the problem should
be taken. In this paper we found that despite all these subsidies, idle treasury and state owned
lands and the unemployment rate above 10% there is no enough private forestation. Cause of
this situation is not the scarce of labor, capital or natural resources. Most important reason
here is inadequacy of information flows. Lots of investors are unaware about this investment
option. We suggest that: Opportunities in this investment field should be announced clearly
and may be the most importantly this investment options should be projected properly and be
reported to individuals. This work is agriculture focused. And people who interest in
agriculture might give up because of the technical difficulties as projecting.
402
REFERENCES
Aras,S., Çalışkan, V., Türkiye’nin Beşeri Ve Ekonomik Coğrafyası, Meb Basımevi, İstanbul,
2004
Ayanoğlu, S. Anayasa Hükümleri Karşısında Orman Mevzuatımız, Ormancılık Hukuku,
Türkiye Çevre Vakfı Yayını, Ankara 1999.
Korkmaz, Y., Özel Ormanlar ve Mülkiyet Açısından Değerlendirilmesi, Gazi Üniversitesi
Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, C.XIV, 2010
Orman
Genel
Müdürlüğü,
http://www.agm.gov.tr/AGM/AnaSayfa/faliyetler/ozelagaclandrma.aspx?sflang=tr
URL2,
Orman
Genel
Müdürlüğü,
URL3,
http://www.agm.gov.tr/AGM/Files/faaliyetler/ozel_agaclandirma/sorularla_ozel_agaclandirm
a.pdf
Ormanlarımızın
Faydaları,
OGM,
http://web.ogm.gov.tr/Resimler/sanalkutuphane/ormanin_faydalari.pdf
URL1,
Özkurt, A.,Yeşilkaynak, B., Özel Ağaçlandırma Çalışmalarının Sosyal Ve Ekonomik Boyutu
- Mersin Örneği-, Iı. Ormancılıkta Sosyo-Ekonomik Sorunlar Kongresi, Isparta, 2009
URL3, http://www2.tbmm.gov.tr/d24/7/7-3270sgc.pdf
URL4, http://www.milliemlak.gov.tr/istatistiksel-bilgiler Tarih:07.03.1
Yeşildağ, G., Dünyada Bazı Ülkelerde Özel Orman Mülkiyetinin Gelişimi, Ormancılıkta
Sosyo-Ekonomik Sorunlar Kongresi, Isparta, 2009
403
An Empirical On Knowledge Sharing In Learning Organizations In Kutahya, Turkey
Kemal Demirci1, Nuray Mercan1, Yaşar Aksanyar1, Bayram Alamur2, Vasfi Kahya3
1Dumlupınar University Instıtute of Social Sciences, Kütahya, Turkey,
2Balikesir University Havran Vocational School Of Higher Education,
3Dumlupinar University Instıtute of Social Sciences, Kütahya, Turkey
E –mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected],
[email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
Comunities today and in the future have to process, evaluate and internalize the information
more than past. Comunities and enterprises, which don't understand the environment, and are
unconscious about changes, and which don't read the world, are obliged to deteriorate, even
to die. Fiber speed and continious changes of present world, makes compulsory to learn
continiously and to educe information. Enterprises have to be open to continiously learning to
carry on their growth and development and they have to gain capability to share
knowledge.This paper undertakes to contribute to this search by addressing some
fundamental questions about the nature, domain, conceptual foundations, and practical
challenges of knowledge management and organizational learning. A positive relationship
has been found between continiously learning which are learner dimensions of organization,
dialog and research, team learning, sharing systems, empowered workers, connection
between the systems, sharing information of supportive leadership and openness of in-house
cognitive canals through the correlation and multiple regression analysis done in the result of
the research.
Keywords: Knowledge Management, Knowledge Share, learning organization.
1.INTRODUCTION
The term organizational learning may refer to individual learning within the organization, the
entire organization learning as a collective body, oranywhere in between these extremes.
However, most organizational learning refers to team ororganizational level learning. Of
404
course, individual learning, or learning in small or large groupsor as an entire organization
may be needed for the firm to possess the requisite knowledge totake effective action. From a
knowledge management perspective, all levels of learning areimportant and all must be
nurtured and made a natural part of culture. To date, most of the knowledge management
emphasis has been put on locating, creating and sharing knowledge. For this reason, we
consider or ganizational learning to refer to the capacity of the organization to acquire the
knowledge necessary to survive and compete in its environment. (Bennet and Bennet, 2006:
1-3).
Knowledge sharing in an organization is an important issue. Because knowledge is
considered as being the source of organizational competitive and a kind of strategic capital in
an information economy, the more the knowledge is expanded in an organization, the more
the capacity of competition is (Yaghi Et Al, 2011:20).
Knowledge sharing can be defined as transferring knowledge from one place or one person to
another (Sharrat and Usoro, 2003:4-5). It is possible to define knowledge sharing basically as
making knowledge useable for the individuals in an organization. In other words, knowledge
sharing is a process of bartering knowledge with other individuals so that they can
understand, claim and use it (Ipe, 2003:341); knowledge sharing is that employees share their
knowledge, thoughts, suggestions and experience in their organization with others (Bartol
and Srivastava, 2002:65).
The first section of the paper considers conseptual analysis of knowledge sharing.In the
second section, we will try to explain conceptual analysis of learning organization. In the
third section, the results and the findings of the study will be evaluate, in the conclusion
section, the importance of knowledge sharing in learning organizations will be evaluate by
using the findings.
2.Conseptual analysis of knowledge sharing
Knowledge sharing is a social mutual interactive culture and involves knowledge, skill and
experience exchange of employees in an organization. For an organization, knowledge
sharing is capturing knowledge based on experience, organizing it, making it reusable and
transferring it; it depends on making knowledge available for others in an organization or a
business. Many studies have shown that knowledge sharing is compulsory because it allows
organizations to increase their innovation performance and to decrease unnecessary learning
efforts (Lin, 2007:315-316).
405
Knowledge is about knowledge exchange between two individuals. It can also be expressed
as “willingness of individuals in an organization to share their knowledge with others” (Mc
Neish and Mann, 2010:19-20). Sharing knowledge also allows administrators and employees
keep what they know and to practice it (Yang, 2007:84). The aim of sharing knowledge is
either to create new knowledge out of existing knowledge or to improve it (Christensen,
2007:37).
Knowledge sharing is thought as a social behaviour and many physical, technological,
psychological, cultural and personal factors have effective roles in not only supporting but
also limiting knowledge sharing. Despite many advantages of knowledge sharing, researchers
and implementers often argue that in many cases, in fact, individuals abstain from sharing
their knowledge with others (Davenport, 2007); moreover, they say that act of sharing
knowledge is unnatural and there are many reasons for people to abstain from sharing their
knowledge with others. Some of what obstruct sharing knowledge between colleagues are the
following factors: the relations between the source of knowledge and the receiver of the
knowledge aren’t extensive, according to Smith and McKeen (2003) rewards and motivation
aren’t enough for sharing, according to Ikhsan and Ronald (2004) time is insufficient, and
knowledge sharing culture is lacking. Furthermore, inadequacy in understanding what to
share with whom, limited appreciation of sharing knowledge and fear of acquiring false
knowledge may also hinder knowledge sharing acts (Cited in Majid and Wey, 2009:22).
2.1. Conseptual analysis of learning organizations
Organizational learning can be said to occur when there is a change in the
content,conditionality, or degree of belief of the beliefs shared by individuals who jointly act
on those beliefs within an organization knowledge can be articulated and codifiedto create
organizational knowledge assets. Knowledge can be disseminated (using information
technologies)in the formof documents, drawings, best practicemodels, etc.Learning processes
can be designed toremedy knowledge deficienciesthrough structured, managed, scientific
processes (Sanchez, 2005: 3).
Organizational learning requires a sharing of language, meaning, objectives and standards
that are significantly different from individual learning. When the organization learns, it
generates a social synergy that creates knowledge, adding value to the firm’s knowledge
workersand to its overall performance. When such a capability becomes embedded within
theorganization’s culture, the organization may have what is called a core competency. These
areusually unique to each organization and can rarely be replicated by other firms. The
406
knowledge behind a core competency is built up over time through experiences and successes
and rests morein the relationships and spirit among the knowledge workers that is the sum of
each workers knowledge (Bennet and Bennet, 2006: 1-3).
3.Research Method and Sample
The “Questionnaire of Learning Organizations’ Dimensions” which we referred to was
devbeloped by Watkins and Marsick (1997). The reliability and the validity of the
questionnare, learning continuum, dialog and research, learning as a team, sharing system,
connections between systems, empowered employees, supporting leadership.
The data were collected through a questionnaire based on literature. Surveys of Chow, Deng
and Ho (2000) were utilized in evaluating the employees' knowledge sharing. There were 24
questions by Chow, Deng and Ho (2000) in the questionnaire: 5 about the perspectives of the
employees about knowledge, 5 about the cases requiring knowledge sharing, 9 about the
cases obstructing knowledge sharing and 5 about the elements of knowledge sharing that is
the basic variable of intellectual capital.
This research was conducted by questionnaire method to totally 124 people who work in
different segments of Altintas District Governorship.
3.1. Demographical Characteristics of the Subjects
Shows demographic features of the subjects: Age Distribution: 20-25 Yaş %14,5; 25-30 age
%36,5 ;30-35 age %16,5; 35-40 age %14,5 ; 40-45 age %8,9 ; Over 45 %13,7 Marital Status
Distribution Married 92 - % 74,2 ; Single 32 - %25,8 Distribution According To Position
Officer 47 - %37,9 , Office Boy 2 - %1,6 ;Teacher 50 - %40,3;Policeman 2 - %1,6; Sağlıkçı
5 - % 4 ;Health Worker 18 - %14,5. Distribution Accoding To Departments Land Registry 5 %4; Education 67 - %54; Governorship 15 - %14,1 ; Health 1 - %13,7; Forestry 13 %10,5; Treasury 7 - %5,6. Working Time Distribution 1-5 Years 77 %62,1 ; 5-10 Years 25
%20,2 ; 10-15 Years 10 %8,1 ; 15-20 Years 1 %8 ; Over 20 Years 11 %8,9 Distribution
Of Education Level High School 24 - %19,4 ; University 99 - %79,8 ; Masters Degree 1 %0,8
4.Research Hyphothesis
The hypothesis can be said like this;
H1:There is a statistically significant correlation between the participants’ (officers’)
viewpoints about sub-dimension of learning organization; knowledge management, dialog
407
and research, learning as a team, sharing systems,empowered employees, connections
between systems and supporter leadership.
H2:There is a statistically significant correlation between the participants’ (officers’)
viewpoints about openness of the internal channel and learning organizations, dialog and
research, learning as a team, sharing systems, empowered employees, connections between
systems and supporter leadership.
4.1.Findings and analysis
4.1.1. Reliability of the Questionnaire
In order to testthe reliability of questionnaire after analyzing the findings the Likert type data
of the questionnaire, Cronbach’s Alpha value was found as 0,95. Some 28 questions which
take part in the questionnaire were analysed to test reliability and Cronbach’s Alpha value of
Likert type questionnaire findings was found as 0,80.
1. Analysis of correlations between sub-dimensions of sharing information and learning
organizations
SITUATIONS
Pearson
Correlatio
n
DIALOG
TEAM
SHARING
,536**
,424**
,387**
,000
,000
,459**
,000
EMPOWERING
SYSTEM
SUPPORT
,388**
,405**
,360**
000
000
000
000
,442**
,374**
,407**
,428**
,349**
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
REQUIRING
THE
SHARING INFO
OPENNESS
of IN-HOUSE
COGNITIVE
CANALS
Sig. (2tailed)
Pearson
Correlatio
n
Sig. (2tailed
**İlişki 0,01 düzeyinde anlamlıdır (çift yönlü) Relationship is significant at the 0,01 level.
(two ways)
408
In the result of correlation analysis, at the 0,01 significance level situations requaring the
sharing info and relationship in a positive way have been observed between dialog and
research team learning, sharing systems, empowered workers, connection between the
systems, sharing information of supportive leadership and openness of in-house cognitive
canals which are dimensions of sharing information.
2. Multiple regression analysis between learner dimensions of organization and sharing
information
2
R
= 30,1 ADJUSTED
2
R
=25,9
F=7,150
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
P VALUE =,000

P VALUE
t VALUE
PARAMETER
-,038
-,377
,707
DIALOG
,458
3,523
,001
TEAM
,044
,333
,739
-,030
-,244
,808
EMPOWERING
,018
,144
,886
SYSTEM
,087
,589
,557
SUPPORT
,049
,400
,690
CONTINUOUSNESS
SHARING
.
Continiously learning which are learner dimensions of organization, dialog and research,
team learning, sharing systems, empowered workers, connection between the systems and
sharing information of supportive leadership explains 25,9 % part of total variance of sharing
info perceptions.
3. Multiple regression analysis between learner dimensions of organization and openness of inhouse cognitive canals
2
R =
27,1
ADJUSTED
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
2
R =22,1
F=6,167

P VALUE =,000
t VALUE
P VALUE
PARAMETER
-,127
-1,233
,220
TEAM
,284
2,140
,034
SHARING
,211
1,564
,120
-,043
-,342
,733
SYSTEM
,049
,386
,700
SUPPORT
,176
1,165
,246
DIALOG
EMPOWERING
409
Dialog and research which are learner dimensions of organization, team learning,
sharing systems, empowered workers, connection between the systems and sharing
information of supportive leadership explains 22,1 % part of total variance of
openness of in-house cognitive canals of perceptions.
5. CONCLUSION
Named as a knowledge era and since 1990 and onwards which are the beginning of
the new era it has been observed that many academic studies on knowledge management and
knowledge sharing and also it is thought that this interest will become more dense in the
following years. At the end of the study, a positive relationship has been found in the
correlation analysis and regression analysis between learner organization and sharing
information. Knowledge management has been influential both reaching the individual aims
and organizational aims and targets by catalyzing.Today, knowledge society has become an
economical system with new occupational structures, new production relationships and social
structures in which knowledge is produced densely. In the knowledge society, the main
motivation factor which leads the individuals and entrepreneurs to produce knowledge is to
desire self realization. The race to success, as a success competition, it makes feel not only in
local level but also in global level. Knowledge management- in learner organizations- is to
provide a common language which will reflect the organization’s own identity for reaching
the aims of organizations, adopting sharing vision which is desired to be composed, and
abolishing the resistance against wanting to apply to administrative approaches. (Karahan and
Yılmaz,2010).
REFERENCES
Bennet A. and Bennet D. (2003) The partnership between organizational learning and
knowledge management. In Handbook on Knowledge Management (HOSAPPLE CW, Ed),
Vol. 1, pp 439–455, Springer, New York.
Ipe M. (2003). ‘Knowledge Sharing On Organizations: A Conceptual Framework’, Human
Resource Development Review. Thousand Oaks: Dec. Vol:2, Iss.4.
Bartol M. K. And Srıvastava A. (2002) “Motivation and Barriers to Participation in Virtual
Knowledge-Sharing Comminities of Practice”, Journal of Leadership and Organization
Studies, Vol.9, No.1, pp.64-75.
410
Chow C.W. Deng F. J. Ho J.L. (2000) “The Openness of Knowledge Sharing Within
Organizations: A Comparative Study in The United States And The People's Republic Of
China”, Journal of Management Accounting Research; Vol.12, pp.65-95.
Chrıstensen H. P. (2007) “Knowledge Sharing: moving away from the obsession with best
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Civil Law Notaries in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Actors in Preventive Justice
Bakšić Šukrija1, Oruč Esad2
1University of Zenica, Faculty of Law, Zenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
2International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
E –mails: [email protected],[email protected]
Abstract
Civil law notaries are professional lawyers and public officials appointed by the State to
confer authenticity on legal deeds and contracts contained in documents drafted by them and
to advise persons who call upon their services. Institution of the notary was introduced for the
first time in the legal system of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2007. Introduction of the office
of notary was one of the steps taken to ensure independent and impartial judiciary and to
adapt legal system with European Union law. Before its introducing there was no institution
or legal profession which acted impartially on behalf of all parties to a contract or transaction.
Notarial services are very wide and complex. It encompasses all judicial activities in noncontentious matters, ensure legal certainty to clients, thus averting disputes and litigation. As
a guarantor of legal certainty, notary is one of the most important actors of preventive justice
which include all means of reducing resort to the courts for the settlement of controversies.
In this study we analyzed contribution of notary office to preventive justice in Bosnia and
Herzegovina.
Keywords: civil law notary, preventive justice, legal certainty, realising justice, avoiding
disputes
412
1.INTRODUCTION
The 1995 General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina ended the
1992-95 war and created the independent state of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). BiH
consists of two entities and one district: The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)
and the Republika Srpska (RS), as well as Brčko District of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BD
BiH), which is an autonomous district. The entities and the BD BiH have their own
government and assemblies and enact their laws and regulations, which are typically
harmonized, but yet separate and distinct. Furthermore, the FBiH consist of 10 administrative
units – cantons, which have their own constitutions and administrative organization.
We can conclude that BiH has a specific and very complex constitutional and legal system
which remains inefficient and is subject to different interpretations. The complicated
decision-making process has contributed to delay in structural reforms and reduce the
country's capacity to make progress towards the EU.25 Few credible steps have been taken to
improve the adoption of key legislation relevant to EU integration. One of those steps was
introduction of notary office into domestic legal system. It represents an effort of getting
closer to the European standards governing legal services, especially in the fields of civil and
business law.26
Before the Second World War the office of notary did exist in the region of the ex
Yugoslavia but was abolished by enactment of the Implementing Statute relating to the
Office of Notary passed on 17th November 1944. After abolition of the office of notary the
notary's duties were at first taken over by the courts; later some of the notarial duties were
also transferred to the advocates and administrative bodies.27 Although a number of notarial
positions were determined by the Ordinance on the Number and Location of Notarial
Positions for BiH as well, they never start with performance of the duties.28
Institution of the notary was introduced for the first time in the legal system of Bosnia and
Herzegovina (BiH) in 2007. As a consequence of constitutional organization of the State,
three different laws have been introduced: the Notary Law of the Federation of Bosnia and
25 European Commition, Bosnia and Herzegovina 2011 Progress Report, page 11.
26 M. Povlakić, Country Reports on Notary Service in Southeast European Countries, German
Organisation for Tehnical Cooperation (GTZ) GmbH Open Regional Fund for South East Europe Legal Reform, 102.
27 E. Braniselj, Notarius International, No 3-4/2004, page 169.
28 Official Gazette of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia No 7610
413
Herzegovina (FBHLN)29, the Notary Law of the Brčko District of Bosnia and Herzegovina
(BDLN)30 and the Notary Law of the Republic of Srpska (RSLN)31.
First notaries started to perform their duties in 2007 in Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina
and Brčko District, while notaries of the Republic of Srpska began their work in March 2008.
The Notary as existing today in BiH belongs to the Civil law or Latin notarial system.
The specific structuring of preventive justice differs from country to country. In general
preventive justice include all means of reducing resort to the courts for the settlement of
controversies. The term should cover the following things:
-
the legal settlement of issues of fact through administrative tribunals, leaving a resort
to the courts on issues of law;
the prevention of litigation through the settlement of disputes out of court and
the prevention of disputes through care in the avoidance of grounds of disputes, when
entering into transactions giving rise to legal rights.32
Notaries are part of prevetive justice and they can contribute to development of legal system
in general troughout the strengthening of legal certainty, protection of public interest and
avoiding disputes.
2.Entry to the profession and powers of notaries
A notaries are appointed to a vacant notarial position by the Justice Minister of Federation of
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Justice Minister Republic of Srpska and President of Judiciary
Commission of Brčko District BiH (hereinafter: Justice Minister). Advertising of a free
notarial position is announced by the Justice Ministry in the Official Gazette of the relevant
entity/District.
In order to be appointed as notary, a candidate must fulfill the following requirements:
-
Bosnian nationality,
Legal capacity and sound health,
An academic title as graduate in law,
Successfully completed the bar exam,
Successfully completed the notary exam,
29 Official Gazette of the FBiH No 42/02
30 Official Gazette of the BDBiH No 09/03
31 Official Gazette of the RS No 86/04, 02/05, 74/05, 76/05, 91/06, 37/06, 50/10
32 W. F. Dodd, Progress of Preventive Justice, American Bar Association No 6-1920, 151.
414
-
-
Not to have been convicted of crimes against humanity and international law, offence
against duty or any other premeditated offence that is still a matter of criminal public
record with the relevant body at the time of appointment,
Not to be a member of a political party.33
In accordance with the BiH Law notaries draw up authentic documents relating to legal
transactions or for proceedings establishing a legal right; they take documents, money and
securities for delivery to third parties or to state bodies into safekeeping and on behalf of the
court or other state body handle matters which can be passed on to them in accordance with
the law.34 Certain legal transactions require the form of a notarial act in order to be valid, in
particular:
-
Contracts relating to the settlement of financial relations between spouses,
Contracts relating to the disposal of the assets of a minor or persons without legal
capacity,
A promise of a gift,
Incorporation documents for a legal entity,
All types of real-estate contracts.
All of the aforementioned legal transactions have to be authenticated by a notary.
Transactions that are concluded without observing the statutorily or contractually required
form or that are not given corresponding approval will be null and void.35
3.Functions of the notary office in BiH
Notaries in BiH, like a most of notaries in civil law countries all over the world, exercise a
public power. Their primary task is to confer authenticity on the legal instruments and
contracts they establish for their clients, mainly in area of civil law. Although notaries in BiH
are not paid by the State, this does not make their role any less of a public role. They hold a
portion of public power and have the status of public official.
The notary’s role contributes to preventive justice and increasing legal certainty in BiH in
several ways:
33 Article 26 FLN,208 RSLN, 5 BDLN
34 Articles 69-72 FLN, 64-67 RSLN, 43-46 BDLN
35 Article 73 FLN, 68 RSLN, 47 BDLN
415
3.1.Ensuring legal certainty
Although one of the most important principle of the Contract law in BiH is freedom of
contract it does not eliminate the need for supervision regarding its implementation. The
notarial function is particularly important in ensuring an effective legality check.36 By
placing the State's seal next to the signatures of the parties on the instruments they draw up,
notaries are responsible for the content and the form. They ensure that the authentication
process has been respected perfectly and that the authenticated instrument expresses the
wishes of its signatories, their correct identity and the date and substance of their
commitments.37Authentic instruments in general have almost same value as a judgment and
can be contested only through judicial proceedings.
Furthermore, each notary has a legal duty to be aware of the provisions of the 2009 Law on
the Prevention of Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorist Activities (hereinafter Act)
to prevent and detect the commission of money laundering and terrorist financing.38 The
2009 Act transposes the Third EU Money Laundering Directive (2005/60/EC) and associated
implementing Directive 2006/70/EC into domestic legal system. When performing duties
notary, if they found that there are reasons to suspect money laundering or funding of terrorist
activities, in connection with transaction or certain person, they are obliged to inform the
State Investigation of Protection Agency -Financial-Intelligence Department without delay
(FID). Every time when a client requests an advice in relation to money laundering or
funding of terrorist activities, notaries have to inform the FID immediately and not later than
three working days from the date when the client requested such advice. 39 Throughout this
function notaries protect not just consumers but public interest as well.
3.2.The notarial function in avoiding disputes
Notaries act as independent, impartial and objective advisers to all parties to contract or a
transaction. The independence and impartiality is ensured by an incompatibility of notary's
36 C. Jaquet, Notariat without borders: legal security at the service of Europeans, 1st Congress of EU
Civil Law Notaries
37URL http://www.cnue.be/
38 Official Gazette of BiH, No 53/09
39 Article 41 of the Act.
416
work with any other for-profit work with the exception of the administration of his/her own
assets. Nevertheless, a notary public may perform any scientific, publishing, teaching,
interpreting, expert witnessing and artistic work against payment.40 The impartiality of the
notary in all his activities is the foundation of the Notary profession in BiH. The notary must
exercise his office faithfully to his oath. He is not the representative of one party, but an
independent and impartial guide for the parties concerned - unlike an advocate who always
looks for the benefits for his client. The impartiality of the notary guarantees a new
contractual order which is characterised by the search for balance between the parties and the
protection of the consumer.41 They examine the intentions of the parties, draft the contracts
and instruments necessary to carry out the intended transaction and ensure that the
contractual provisions are in full compliance with the law. They also verify that the parties
have full capacity to enter into the intended agreement and that they have fully understood
the legal implications of their commitment.42 Otherwise, the civil law notary is required by
law to refuse his participation.
Essential idea of notaries impartiality is to establish a preventive legal control by informing
and advising clients on the legal and financial consequences of their transactions. This is why
notaries are thought of as amicable settlement magistrates, practicing preventive justice.43
3.3.Realising justice
Realising justice is also very important function of the notaries in BiH as well as important
part of a system of preventive justice. The backlog of cases remained one of the most acute
problems facing the BiH judiciary and court proceeding are generally lengthy. Despite the
many reforms conducted by the State bodies, the backlog still stands at over 2.1 million cases
country-wide. The fragmented legal framework across the country restricts effectiveness of
41 XXIV International Congress of the Latin Notariat, Mexico City, October 2004, Impartiality of the
Notary:
ensuring certainty in contractual relationships,
http://www.uinl.net/congreso.asp?idioma=ing&submenu=CONGRESOEJORNADAS&submenu2=CON
CLUSIONESANTERIORES
43 http://www.cnue.be/
417
judiciary system in BiH. Also existence of 14 different ministries of justice with its own
budget continues to adversely affect the independence of the judiciary in BiH.44 Notarial
documents enjoy a presumption of legality and exactness of content and may only be
contradicted through judicial proceedings. They have evidentiary value and enforceability
which reduces the costs of lawsuits as it avoids the reiteration during the proceedings of proof
that had already been declared extra judicially. Enforceability avoids long and costly lawsuits
and evidently represents a saving on costs. Like judicial decisions, they are enforceable,
enabling the parties to have their obligations enforced directly by the judicial officers,
without
having
to
pass
before
the
courts.
4.CONCLUSION
By introducing the notary profession, BiH has made a big step towards improvement of
consumer protection, independent and impartial judicial system, as well as adaptation
domestic legal system with European Union law. In our study we have found that notaries
have contributed to the development of preventive justice in BiH by ensuring legal certainty,
avoiding disputes and realising justice.
As independent, impartial and objective advisers to all parties to a transaction, notaries lead
to the strengthening of legal certainty and protection of public interest. They also provide the
market and development with trust.
The main idea by introducing notary office into the legal system of BiH was to establish a
preventive legal control in order to avoid costly and time-consuming litigation.
Additional improvement in the context of the administration of preventive justice can be
made by transferring more powers to the notary office, such as process of mediation which
makes process of dispute resolution simpler, quicker and less costly in the interest of citizens.
REFERENCES
C. Jaquet, Notariat without borders: legal security at the service of Europeans, 1st Congress
of EU Civil Law Notaries
E. Braniselj, Notarius International, No 3-4/2004
European Commition, Bosnia and Herzegovina 2011 Progress Report
High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2010 Annual Report
44 High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2010 Annual Report, 144.
418
Law on the Prevention of Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorist Activities, Official
Gazette of BiH, No 53/09
M. Povlakić, Country Reports on Notary Service in Southeast European Countries, German
Organization for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) GmbH Open Regional Fund for South East
Europe - Legal Reform
Notary Law of the Brčko District of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Official Gazette No 09/03
Notary Law of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Official Gazette No 42/02
Notary Law of the Republic of Srpska, Official Gazette No 86/04, 02/05, 74/05, 76/05, 91/06,
37/06, 50/10
Ordinance on the Number and Location of Notarial Positions, Official Gazette of the
Kingdom of Yugoslavia No 7610
W. F. Dodd, Progress of Preventive Justice, American Bar Association No 6-1920
XXIV International Congress of the Latin Notariat, Mexico City, October 2004, Impartiality
of
the
Notary:
ensuring
certainty
in
contractual
relationships,
http://www.uinl.net/congreso.asp?idioma=ing&submenu=CONGRESOEJORNADAS&subm
enu2=CONCLUSIONESANTERIORES
http://www.cnue.be/
419
An Application On Determining Of Optimum Local Transporting System At Adapazari
City
Taskin Kamil, Gumus Fatih1, Akaytay Ali2
1 Sakarya University, Business Faculty, , Sakarya, Turkey,
2Duzce University, Business Faculty, Duzce, Turkey
Abstract
Adapazarı Town is the management center of the Sakarya City and the biggest town of
Sakarya. Transportation in Adapazarı City is being provided by Municipality buses,
minibuses, shared taxi and special buses. This has been both caused a deepen conflict which
is hard to be manage and intensive traffic problem. There is an intensive competition among
the minibuses, shared taxi and special buses. This situation has been reflected to Municipality
buses negatively. Additionaly, all passenger vehicles have been working with idle capacity.
This means that there are lots of passenger vehicles which working with idle capacity and
uncomfortable .
We calculated these specialties of minibuses and shared taxies at this study at below;







Idle Capacities
All expenditures
Daily, monthly ann annual incomes
Daily circle number
Capacities at new model
All expenditure at new model
Daily, monthly ann annual incomes at new model
At our model, minibuses and shared taxies have been combined and have gotten active on
their new routes. At our model includes these profits;




The more relaxed traffic.
The more suitable and comfortable passenger tranportation.
The more profits level for minibuses and shared taxies.
The less and fasten routes
Keywords: Transporting, Optimum level, New Regulation, Optimum Capacity, Idle Capacity.
420
1.THE AIM OF THE STUDY
This application study was performed in Adapazarı city which is the central settlement unit of
Sakarya metropolitan municipality. Our study focuses on cities’ transportation problem.
Sakarya and its center Adapazarı cities are developing settlements units of Turkey. Sakarya
and Adapazarı cities have increasing population number. These numbers are given at Table 1
at below: (http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakarya_(il)#N.C3.BCfus)
TABLE 1: Population Numbers Of Sakarya And Adapazarı Cities.
As it is seen at Table 1, Sakarya And Adapazarı Cities’ population numbers have been
increasing along the years. In addition to this information, Sakarya cities’ economical weigh
increased among the other cities of Turkey. Countries’ top ten cities’ export numbers are at
Table 2 at below: (http://www.tim.org.tr/tr/ihracat-ihracat-rakamlari-tablolar.html)
421
Ranking
City
Export Total
%
1.
İstanbul
51.833.871
46,18
2.
Bursa
10.927.885
9,73
3.
Kocaeli
8.880.173
7,91
4.
İzmir
7.201.910
6,41
5.
Ankara
5.186.288
4,62
6.
Gaziantep
3.887.663
3,46
7.
Manisa
3.524.252
3,14
8.
Denizli
2.143.886
1,91
9.
Hatay
1.732.129
1,54
10.
Sakarya
1.665.431
1,48
TABLE 2 : Turkey’s Top Ten Export Totals According To Cities.
As it seen Table 1, Sakarya has very important place and ranking in Countries’ economical
performance. Sakarya made export 1.665.431 $ export in 2011 year and the share of this total
in sum number is % 1,48.
Table 1 and table 2 shows us Sakarya and Adapazarı cities are deveoloping cities in Turkey
cities. This has been bringing more advantages. For example, a great number of big factories
and small and medium sized factories have opened up to 2012. This situation accelerated
especially at new millenium. Besides, there are lots of market and shopping center have been
opened. These progresses brought some problem to Adapazarı city especially at
transportation topic.
Transportation in Adapazarı City is being provided by Municipality buses, minibuses, shared
taxi and special buses. Nearly ten years ago, city is smaller than now and transportation was
not big problem. After the earthquake in 1999, city was planned again and new settlement
areas established which are far from the city nearly 20 kilometres. Some people chose to live
around the city not in it. This situation caused the transportation problem because the city
expanded the wide area after the earthquake. 4 transportation type is more excessive and
complicated for the city. These transportation type’s routes have been crossed and this caused
negative competion and discomfort in people. Because of these situations, we aimed to solve
conflict and suggest a new plan for cities’ transportation system. The aimes of our study are
determined in some titles. These are given at below:



If minibuses turns into buses, what is the new profit of the owner of the minibuses.
Compare of buses and minibuses’ profit, expenses and incomes.
If minibuses turn into buses, how many buses are sufficent for city transportation.
2.CURRENT SITUATION OF CITY TRANSPORTATION
As it seen above, there are 4 alternatives for inner city transportation. These are Municipality
buses, minibuses, shared taxi and special buses. Adapazarı city has not tramvay and metro
line. Municipality buses, minibuses, shared taxi carry the passengers at inner city. Special
buses carry the passengers from the out of the cıty to inner city. In recent years, special buses
having kart54 have been carriying passsengers at inner city.
Minibuses and shared taxies have dominated to transportation system of the city. There are
416 minibuses and 320 shared taxies on the road. In one year, Sakarya metropolitan
municipality sold some long buses having more share in transportation. In addition to this,
Sakarya metropolitan municipality has been put pressure on minibus owner about buying new
422
and long buses. Because minibuses and shared taxies cause traffic stir and have not modern
and comfortable environment. Minibuses are 14 peoples capacity and shared taxies are 7
peoples capacity. Because of capacity problem and comfortable inner design, turning into
buses is inevitable situation for these vehicles. This means that minibuses and shared taxies
are inadequate for cities’ transportation especially for recent years.
3.MINIBUS TRANSPORTATION
416 minibuses have been carrying passengers at 13 different stations. Some stations have
different subline. Other specialities of minibuses are at below;









Total market price of minibuses is 87.000.000 million US$
It constitutes of 13 stations and 27 subline.
Nearly 90.606 passengers are being carried by minibuses in a day.
Nearly 33.070.030 passengers are being carried by minibuses in a year.
All minibuses are turning around the World 2,25 times in a day.
37.797.740 km have been taken by minibuses in a year.
3.403.586 liter diesel have been consumed by minibuses. This makes 13.614.344
Turkish Liras expenditures.
Nearly every lines have been crossed with ather vehicles lines.
Some minibuses’ line price is higher than others because of profit level of their line.
4.METHODOLOGY
We traveled all stations to reach our studies goals. We got some information about minibüs
station and their feattures. Some station information and getting methods have been given at
below:







423
Ticket price is taken by station officer. Ticket prices are different at student and civil
person. In addition to this, these prices are different at different stataions.
Passenger number carried by minibuses are calculated in minibuses by pollster. How
many student and civil person are being carried by minibüs calculated separetaly. This
calculated in accordance with morning, noon, evening timezones, summer and other
seasons at the same time.
Every replacement parts of minibus and buses were taken by oto markets.
Line lenght of every line calculated in minibüs.
The last 3 minibuses selling prices were taken from each stations.
Departure time of minibuses were calculated at every station at the base on timezones
( Morning, noon and evening).
Circuit time of line were calculated at every station in minibus.
5.FINANCIAL COMPARANCE OF EACH LINE OF MINIBUSES
In this section, we showed line price, profit of the line and amortisation time at one figure. In
according to figure 1, line price, profit of the line and amortisation time are compliant with
each other. The most profited line has the most priced minibuses. At the most profited line,
amortisation time is the smallest.
FIGURE 1: Lıne Price, Profit Of The Line And Amortisatıon Time At Stations.
6. CONNECTION BETWEEN LINE PRICES AND PASSENGER NUMBERS
We showed that is there any connection line prices and passenger number carrying in a line at
below. In accordance with the figüre 2, line prices and passenger number carrying in a line
are compliant with each other. The more passenger are being carried in a line, the more price
of line is higher.
424
FIGURE 2: Line Prices And Passenger Numbers
7. IS THERE ANY IDLE CAPACITY AT MINIBUS LINES?
In accordance to our calculations, % 35 of minibuses are excessive situation. This means
minibuses are working with % 35 idle capacity. There is no need to 145 minibuses at
transportation. This means that minibuses have high and unnecessary cost, opportunity cost.
The same transportation function may have been given with 145 minibuses.
425
FIGURE 3: Idle Capacity Of Minibus Lines
8.CONNECTION BETWEEN FUEL OIL PRICE AND PROFIT OF THE MINIBUS
Every body knows that there is a strong connection between fuel oil price and proft level of
minibuses. In Turkey, oil prices are very high so far as other countries. In accordance to our
calculations, fuel oil price is the most important and biggest part of the total cost of
minibuses. % 1 increase at fuel oil effects the profit at the proportion of % 0,9 decreasing. Oil
price is very unstable in Turkey because of most of the oil imported outside of the country.
This reflects to profit level and this level has been changing along the year.
9. ECONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO SAKARYA ECONOMY OF MINIBUSES
In accordance to table 3, minibuses directly contribute employtment of the 910 persons.These
persons constitute of owner and driver of minibus and station civils.If we suppose a family
constitutes of 4 person, minibuses in Adapazarı have been contributed total income of 3.640
person.
Total output of the minibuses have been contributed total income of 20.579 persons
indirectly. Minibuses have been spent 15.557.452 TL in a month and if this total is divided to
living index of a person, total income of 20.579 persons have been contributed by minibuses.
Direct Economical Contribution Of Minibuses
To Owner
416
To Driver
416
Station Civils
78
Directly Number of Employed Person
910
Directly Number of Income Supported Person ( A family = 4 person )
3640
Undirect Economical Contribution Of Minibuses
Replacement parts, maintanence, restoration
3.297.508 TL
Fuel Oil Cost
12.259.944 TL
Total
15.557.452 TL
426
Kamu-Sen syndicate living index for one person
3.204
Liras
Indirectly Number of Employed Person
5.105
Indirectly Number of Income Supported Person ( A family = 4 person )
20.579
Turkish
Table 3: Economical Contribution Of Minibuses To Sakarya City
10. IF 2 MINIBUSES TURNS INTO ONE BUS
In this section, we calculated all important alternatives in case of two minibuses turn into a
bus. Fort his aim, we got specialities of Fiat Ducato minibus and Otokar Doruk 190s bus. In
case of 2 Fiat Ducato minibüs turn into 1 Otokar Doruk 190s bus, we determined profit,
income and expense for 2 situations as comparative.
First of all, we got all expenses of Fiat Ducato minibus and Otokar Doruk 190s bus for
100.000 km road. These information was taken from seller of these vehicles. These
information reflect 2011 numbers. The result of this research is cost of bus surpasses cost of
minibus nearly at the proportion of % 60. These information about vehicles are below:
427
TABLE 4: All Expenses Of Fiat Ducato Minibus And Otokar Doruk 190s Bus
Other information of Fiat Ducato minibus are below:
428
TABLE 5: Oil Consume, Price And Capacity Of Fiat Ducato Minibus
TABLE 6: Yearly Maintenance And Other Costs Of Fiat Ducato Minibus
Other information of Otokar Doruk 190s Bus are below:
429
TABLE 7: Oil Consume, Price And Capacity Of Otokar Doruk 190s Bus
TABLE 8: Yearly Maintenance And Other Costs Of Otokar Doruk 190s Bus
In accordance to these information, price of bus is 4 times more expensive than other one.
Other costs of bus are more than costs of minibüs but, in terms of capacity bus is more
advantageus than minibus.
11. RESULT TABLE OF TURNING TO BUS FROM MINIBUS
So far as our scenario, 2 minibus will turn into one bus and in case of 5.000 passengers are
carried by these vehicle alternatives we determined the probable cost, profit and income
results. These are below:
430
TABLE 9. Comparance Of Profitabilty Of Minibus and Bus
All fees are manually gathered in minibuses. Minibuses are not included to card54 system but
fees are piled by card54 system electronically in bus . Fees piled by card54 system are
transfered to bank account. Tax is taken over the piled fees and this amount is more higher
than tax piled without car54 system. This cost is the most important one in case of turning
into bus. The other important cost is card54 system hire taken over income as % 8. Another
loss is falling of the fees. Now, Minibuses are taking 1,25 TL from Civil person and 0,9 TL
from students as fee. In cart54 system, These fees will fall into 1.00 TL at civil person and
0,75 TL at student. If a person change the vehicle in one hour, the second fee will be with
%50 discount.
If all of these situations are taken into account, turning into the bus with card54 system will
cause to 1.531 TL loss according to minibus. Loss of being bus is 377 TL without card54
system. High costed components of bus and long amortisation time are taken into account
turning into the bus is not advantageous under these circumstances.
12. CONCLUSIONS
When examining cities in Turkey, it is easily recognized that growth trend in urban
transportation is becoming more and more unsustainable for minibuses in terms of
investments and planning as well as projections. The current conditions are bound to
eliminate minibuses as long as they are not given an opportunity to compete on an equal basis
and to institutionalize.
According to the projections, expected profit in changing minibuses with larger busses is
lesser than likely risks. This situation can be explained by as follows;
High tax rates after institutionalization and incorporation eliminate advantages of
scale economy
431
-
High purchasing and operating costs
-
Pricing costs of card pass system
-
Costs on free and discount tickets
The balance of income and expense should be sustainable and suitable for the sector in cities
where a transformation is planned.
The ratio of Value added taxes (VAT) in Turkey (%18) is relatively higher than that of
European counterparts (%0-%8). The VAT ratio should be decreased to the ratio of the
European countries.
The fuel bill constitutes an important part of total costs as a result of high special
consumption taxes (SCT) in Turkey. The ratio of SCT is relatively higher than that of
European counterparts.
Similar incentive activities aiming at investment and personnel as in the sectors of agriculture
and public services should be introduced in the private mass transportation.
The bank of Provinces should extend credit with low interest rates and long dated to the
private mass transportation to renew the means of transportation under the same conditions
with the local administrations.
It should be enabled for the sector to employ professional and qualified staff to improve
productivity and quality (Social insurance premiums and tax liabilities should be undertaken
by the state).
REFERENCES
http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakarya_(il)#N.C3.BCfus
http://www.tim.org.tr/tr/ihracat-ihracat-rakamlari-tablolar.html
432
Structural Engineering Applications of Artificial Neural Networks
Hakan Başaran, Muhiddin Bağcı
Celal Bayar University, 45140, Manisa, Turkey
Abstract
In this study, infilled planar frames and confined reinforced concrete section have been
analysed using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). ANN architecture was chosen in which
multi layer, feed forward, and back propagation algorithm was used. The training data of
infill frame used were provided by a finite element model in which non-linearity of materials
and the structural interface were taken into account under increasing lateral load. Using the
proposed analytical model (layered model) were generated the training data for confined
reinforced concrete section. Analytical technique uses realistic material models for confined
and unconfined concrete. After completing the training phase, verification of the performance
of the network was carried out using old (included in training phase) and new (not included in
training phase) patterns. The controls conducted in the test phase. The findings of this
exercise show that the ANN algorithm can be successfully and easily used within reasonable
accuracy in order to decrease computational time in finding infill frame and the momentcurvature relationships of reinforced concrete sections.
Keywords:. Artificial Neural Network, Finite Elements Method, Infilled Frame, Confined
Reinforced Concrete Section, Moment-Curvature
1. INTRODUCTION
The mathematical models have been widely applied for the analysis of infilled frame. Holmes
M (1961) modelled the infill effect occurring in an infilled frame without considering the
effects on the interface between frame and infill. In studies conducted by Smith BS (1962),
the approach of diagonal compression strut was dealt with in a more detailed way. Using a
finite element model, Mallick DV and Severn RT (1967) attained the results without
considering the shear effect on the infill frame interface. With a program they prepared.
Infilled planar frames have been analysed using artificial neural network by Bağcı and
Altintaş (2006). The layered model for confined reinforced sections was first used by Pavriz
et al (1991). Moment-curvature relationships of confined concrete sections were investigated
by Ersoy U and Özcebe G (1997). For some other examples of ANN applications, the reader
433
is referred to (Jadid MN and Fairbairn DR (1996), Lee et al (1992), Avdelas et al (1995),
Karlık et al (1998).
In this study, the stiffness, moment and shear force values on frame for five different height
of infill wall are calculated using finite elements method (FEM). The behavior values of
confined reinforced concrete sections subjected to flexure and axial load are obtained by
using analytical solution (layered model). The calculated key values are used in training a
multi-layer, feed forward, back propagation artificial neural network (ANN). The outcomes
of training phase were then tested using the data set reserved for this the network purpose.
The findings of this exercise have shown that the ANN algorithm can be successfully and
easily used within reasonable accuracy in order to decrease computational time in infilled
frame and confined section problems.
2. PARAMETRIC STUDIES
Dimensions of infilled frame given by Fiorato AC and Sözen M (1973) in Fig. 1 are shown,
and the materials properties are listed in Tab. 1. The lateral load (P) was applied at the top left
hand corner of the frame in Fig. 1a in 20 increments of 10 kN each.
Figure 1a. Frame-infill wall 1b. Mesh model of with full infill wall
434
Table 1. Properties of material
Modulus of
elasticity
Compression
Strength
2
Tension Strength
Poisson
(kN/m2)
Ratio
2
(kN/m )
(kN/m )
Frame
2.85x107
3.1x104
3x103
0.2
Infill
1.7x107
3.1x104
2.8x103
0.2
The wall was modelled mesh of quadrilateral-shaped isoparametric plane stress elements as
shown in Figure 1b. The results of a numerical study are given in Tab. 2, with respect to
whether the infill fills the space among the frame. Infill height is h with  being ranging
from 0 and 1 (=1, =0.8, =0.6, =0.4, =0.2 and bare).
Table 2. Results of FEM
Infill Loadheight
P
Stiffness
(infill / no
infill)
(kN)
Left
column
shear
force
Left
column
moment
Infill Loadheight
P
Stiffness
(infill / no
infill)
(kN)
Left
column
Left
column
Moment
shear force
/lateral load (Infill / no
infill)
(Infill / no
infill)
/ lateral
load
h
435
10
5,65700
0,19000
0,19000
20
5,65700
0,19000
30
5,65700
40
0,4h
10
1,3140
0,51400
0,87900
0,19000
20
1,2570
0,54200
0,91900
0,19000
0,19000
30
1,2170
0,55000
0,93800
5,65700
0,19000
0,19000
40
1,2050
0,55200
0,94700
50
5,57100
0,19000
0,19000
50
1,2000
0,56000
0,94700
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
It has been seen that the effect of infill gets clear only when it reaches at 0.4 for the value at
the initial step of loading, though the stiffness of, infilled frame reaches at 5.7 fold, a rather
high number, local failures occurring in the infill as a result of increasing dimensionless load,
leads to a decrease in the overall stiffness of the system.
Shear strength of the column increases with the height of infill. When the height of infill
reached at the value of 0.8h, it was seen that the shear force of the column was 50 % higher
than the shear force it carries when it was a bare frame. In this case, “short column” verifies
its effect. When the height of infill was organised at the height of storey, it was seen that it
was useful in term of shear strength of column.
Input parameters are lateral load (P) and height of infill (h) values. Output parameters are
stiffness (infill /no infill), shear force / lateral load and moment (infill / no infill) at the
loaded column. As it is known, in neural network applications, the input values and output
values can be reduced to the values between 0-1. That is the normalization process, which is
done in this work dividing P’s by 220 and dividing h’s by 1.1h. The output values were
also divided by 5.7 stiffness ratio, 0.7 shear force ratio and 1.1 moment ratio, which were the
highest values that we used in our application. Training was performed for the heights of wall
h, 0.8h, 0.6h, 0.4h, 0.2h and bare and for loads of frame 10, 40, 70, 110, 150,190. As known,
the general aim in the training process is to teach the relations between input and output
values to the program and to obtain good answers to different input values with the possible
lowest error rates. Values obtained from the numerical procedure (FEM) are used in the
network training. A special code was used for ANN exercise by Karlık, B et al (17). It is
adapted and fitted to our application with some changes. ANN architecture with multilayered, forward feeding and backward propagation algorithm was chosen for the training.
The ANN architecture used is a 2:9:9:3 multi-layer architecture as shown in Fig. 2. Exact and
ANN values of output are compared in Tab. 3 for various h and P values. For these training

FEM  ANN / ANN
number of output
values, the ANN algorithm produced results with average error
less
than 0.2 %. The maximum value for FEM / ANN is about 1.0351 in 0.4h infill height and 70
kN load value.
436
Figure 2. Network Architecture for infilled frame
Table 3. The results of ANN and FEM in training
Left column
Infill
Height
Lateral
load
kN
Solution
Method
Stiffness ratio
(Infill / no
infill)
FEM/
ANN
Left column
Shear force/lateral
load
FEM/
ANN
Moment
ratio
FEM/
ANN
(Infill / bare)
FEM
5.65699
10
0.18999
0.19000
0.9977
ANN
5.67016
FEM
5.65699
40
0.9984
0.19030
0.18999
0.19000
1.0136
ANN
5.58108
FEM
4.77100
70
1.0004
0.18992
4.79018
FEM
3.97100
0.9650
0.19688
0.21499
0.25199
0.9960
ANN
1.0246
0.18543
0.9963
0.21580
1.01.91
0.24728
h
110
0.28000
0.34500
1.0105
ANN
3.92982
FEM
3.66800
150
0.9961
0.28110
0.31999
0.39299
0.9976
ANN
3.67685
FEM
3.51399
190
0.9859
0.32458
1.0051
0.39100
0.35999
0.42000
1.0034
ANN
0.9858
0.34998
0.9830
3.50218
0.36621
0.9942
0.42245
In Fig. 3, the mean square errors (MSE) in training versus iteration numbers are shown for
problem. After 1600 iterations, the mean square errors dropped drastically. For more than
15000 iterations, our architecture 2:9:9:3 used in the analysis possesses the lowest total error
values.
25,00
% MSE
20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00
437
0,00
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
Number of ıteration
1.200
1.400
Figure 3. Mean Square Errors (MSE) based on iteration numbers for infilled frame
Different input values were applied to the program for testing the neural network and the
results were obtained in milliseconds. Testing was performed for height of wall h and for load
values of frame 20, 60, 100, 140, 180. In Tab. 4, we compare the test phase results of ANN
and FEM.
Table 4. Test Phase Results for infilled frame
Load
of
Infill P
wall
kN
Stiffness
ratio
Height
20
60
h
100
140
180
438
Method (Infilled /
no infill)
FEM
5,65700
ANN
5,64500
FEM
5,18800
ANN
5,22100
FEM
4,1140
ANN
4,2550
FEM
3,73100
ANN
3,68000
FEM
3,54200
ANN
3,53400
Left
Column
FEM
Left
column
/
shear force /
Moment
ratio
ANN
/lateral
load
(infilled/
1.0021
0.9937
0.9669
1.0138
1.0022
0,19000
0,18600
0,19500
0,19700
0,27000
0,27130
0,31000
0,3088
0,35000
0.3485
FEM
ANN
FEM
/
ANN
no infill)
1.0215
0.9898
0.9953
1.0038
1.0043
0,19000
0,19120
0,21400
0,2134
0,32600
0,31600
0,38000
0,37290
0,41400
0,41485
0.9938
1.0028
1.0316
1.0190
0.9998

FEM  ANN / ANN
number of output ) obtained is obviously about 0.269. The
The average % error (
maximum value for FEM / ANN is about 1.0316 in 100 kN load value. From an engineering
point of view, these errors are considerably low. The other parametric study has been
conducted to observe the effect of different variables on behavior of confined reinforced
section shown in Fig. 4.
Figure 4. The cross-section considered in analyses.
Variables selected to incorporate in the expression of moment-curvature are compressive
strength of concrete (fck), the ratio of the axial load to the axial load capacity (N/No), yield
strength in transverse reinforcement (fsh), space of transverse reinforcement (s), diameter of
transverse reinforcement (Ø), ratio of longitudinal steel (), yield strength of longitudinal
steel (fyk) as shown in Tab. 5. Where TY, TH, CvC, CoC , , M are yield in tension,
hardening of reinforcing in tension , cover crushing, core crushing, strain at maximum
moment, and maximum moment, respectively.
The results obtained from Tab.5 demonstrates no very significant effect on Moment capacity
from compressive strength (fck) in case of pure bending (N=0). The compressive strength
becomes effective with increasing axial load. Maximum moment capacity shows changes of
±25% due to ±25% compressive strength variation. The increasing compressive strength
causes the decrease in ductility.
As level of the axial load (N/No) on the cross-section increases, ductility decreases. Increase
in ductility with decreasing axial load is very significant. It is interesting to note that,
although the section considered is well confined, the behavior becomes very brittle under
high levels of axial load. The upper limits imposed on axial loads in seismic codes results
from such considerations.
Table 5. The results according to different variables of confined concrete section
439
It is seen that yield strength in transverse reinforcement (fsh) has no effect on behavior for
all levels of axial load. The spacing of the lateral reinforcement (s) in the confined section is
ineffective on behavior at low level of axial load. The maximum moment capacity and
ductility increase when spacing of the lateral reinforcement is reduced with increasing axial
load. As ductility increases with diameter of transverse reinforcement (Ø), it has no very
effect on moment capacity. The crushing of core concrete delays with increasing diameter of
transverse reinforcement. The diameter of transverse reinforcement becomes effective with
the increasing axial load. The quantity of longitudinal reinforcement (ρ) has an important
effect on behavior of the confined section. Maximum moment capacity causes increasing
10% due to a the quantity of longitudinal reinforcement variation 30%. The quantity of
longitudinal reinforcement has very significant effect on behavior at low level axial load. The
moment capacity decreases with the higher axial load . The quantity of longitudinal
reinforcement is ineffective on ductility. The yield strength of longitudinal bar (fyk) is
effective parameter in case of pure bending. Maximum moment capacity causes changing
±10% due to a yield strength of longitudinal reinforcement variation ±30%.
In this study , a neural network program which was written by Karlık et al. (1998) in
PASCAL was used . Seven variables for input and six variables for output values were
considered in the application. As it is known, in neural network applications, the input values
and output values can be normalized to the values between 0-1. It is seen that the best results
were obtained with learning rate  of 0.7, and momentum value µ of 0.9. The number of
nodes in the hidden layer was changed for new trials. 1000 iterations were performed for each
440
node number between 1 and 0, and the errors were obtained from the program per 100
iterations. The chances in % error values of 1000 iterations due to the number of hidden layer
nodes are shown in Fig 5. Finally, the lowest errors were obtained in the order of 7:12:13:6
which means 7 input values, 12 and 13 nodes in hidden layers and 6 output value. Thus, the
network architecture would be as in Fig 6
Figure 5. The error changes due to the number of nodes in the hidden layer 1000 iterations.
The training iterations were increased to 5000. So, we obtained as low as 0.07% average
errors, which is reasonably good for ANN applications. The change in errors can be seen in
Fig. 7..
Figure 6. ANN architecture for confined sections
441
% error
1,2
1,1
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Number of iterations
Figure 7. The error change at ANN architecture (7:12:13:6) for confined sections
ANN values of output are compared in Tab. 6. The average error between analytical and
Analytical ANN / ANN
numberof solution
ANN (
) is produced less than 0.2 %. The maximum difference
(Analytical / ANN) for TY, TH, CvC, CoC, and M is about 0.965, 0.978, 1.039, 0.961 ,
0.962 , and 0.976 , respectively. From an engineering point of view, these errors are
considered low.
Table 6. Training process and results for confined sections
A comparison of test and analytical values is given in Tab. 7. The average
error
Analytical ANN / ANN
numberof solution
(
) obtained is obviously about 0.33%. The maximum difference
(Analytical / ANN) for TY, TH, CvC, CoC,  and M is about 0.967, 0.966, 0.972, 0.968 ,
0.991 , and 0.992 , respectively. From an engineering point of view, these errors are
considered low.
442
Table 7. Testing process and results for confined sections
4. CONCLUSION
In this paper, an alternative numerical and analytical technique, an ANN algorithm is used in
the analysis of infilled frame and confined reinforced section. Neural simulation of numerical
and analytical procedure is given in this study. To reduce the calculation time of the
microprocessor of system, a new computer program is used by the ANN method, which gives
answer in milliseconds. ANN architecture was chosen in which multi layer, feed forward, and
back propagation algorithm is used. The training data of infill frame are provided by a finite
element model in which non-linearity of materials and the structural interface were taken into
account under increasing lateral load. For the inelastic static analysis, an incremental iterative
procedure is adopted. Using the proposed analytical model (layered model) are generated the
training data for confined reinforced concrete section. Developed model is using layered
modeling technique and capable of taking into account; crushing of cover and core concrete,
strain hardening of steel and effect of confinement on core concrete. After completing the
training phase, verification of the performance of the network was carried out using old
(included in training phase) and new (not included in training phase) patterns. The controls
conducted in the test phase.
ANN algorithms can not of course replace totally the conventional numerical and analytical
techniques, since they need some key values for training. However, in the analysis infilled
frame and confined reinforced sections, they can be implemented as an efficient
supplementary tool reducing drastically the computational cost. Modeling process in neural
network is more direct, since there is no necessity to specify a mathematical relationship
between input and output variables. The trained ANN is able to produce quick results in the
analysis of infilled frame and confined reinforced section with the same degree of accuracy as
numerical and analytical model. Therefore, the trained ANN may be used in practice for the
design of infilled frame and confined cross section as on alternative to the time consuming
numerical and analytical procedure.
443
REFERENCES
Holmes M.1961. Steel Frames with Brick Work and Concrete Infilling. Proc. Instn. Civ.
Engrs. 19: 473-498
Smith BS.1962. Lateral Stiffness of Infilled Frames. Journal of Struct. Div. ASCE. 8, 183-99
Mallick DV and Severn RT. 1967. The behaviour of infilled frames under static loading.
Proc. Instn. Civ. Engrs. 38, 639-656.
Bağcı M., Altıntaş G.2006. Artificial Neural Network Analysis of Infilled Planar Frames,
Proceedings Of ICE, Structures & Buildings 159(1), 37-44.
Parviz S, Jongsung S, and Jer-Wen H. 1991. Axial / Flexural Behavior of Reinforced
Concrete Sections / Effects of Design Variables. ACI, 88, 17-21.
Ersoy U.and Özcebe G.1997. Moment-Curvature Relationship of Confined Concrete
Sections. First Japan-Turkey Workshop On Earthquake Engineering, Ankara, Turkey, 10-21.
Jadid MN and Fairbairn DR.1996, Neural-network Applications in Predicting Momentcurvature Parameters from Experimental Data. Engineering Applications of Artificial
Intelligence, 9, 309-319.
Lee Y, Oh SH., Hong HK., and Kim MW.1992. Design Rules of Multi-Layer Perceptron.
Science of Artificial Neutral Nets in Structural Mechanics. Structural Optimisation, 1710:
329-339.
Avdelas AV, Panagiotopoulos PD, and Kortesis S.1995. Neutral Networks for Computing in
the Elastoplastic Analysis of Structures. Meccanica, 30: 1-15.
Karlık B, Özkaya E, Aydın S, and Pakdemirli M.1998. Vibration of beam-mass system using
artificial neural networks. Computers & Structures, 1998, 69: 339-347.
Fiorato A. C., Sözen M. A.1973. An investigation of the interaction of reinforced concrete
frames with masonry filler walls. Structural research series report No. 370, University of
Illinois, Urbana.
444
Neural-Network Applications for Analysis of Infilled Frame
Muhiddin Bağcı, Hakan Başaran
Celal Bayar University, 45140, Manisa, Turkey.
E-mails: [email protected],[email protected],[email protected]
Abstract
The modelling of infilled frames is complex due to the large number of variables as well as
the non-linear material behaviour involved. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is found to be a
tool capable of solving such problems. This has led to the increasing use of ANN for
analysing infilled reinforced concrete frames. This paper reports the details of a study
conducted using ANN for predicting the failure of an infilled reinforced concrete infilled
frame subjected to lateral loading. Using the data generated based on analytical solutions, the
ANN model was trained. The so trained model was tested for different set of input parameters
and the output values were compared with the actual values based on analytical results. The
agreement was found to be good.
Keywords:. Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Infilled Frame, Equivalent strut method
1. INTRODUCTION
The principle behind Artificial Neural Networks is the functioning of the human brain.
Different areas in engineering and technology use this technique for solving complex
problems. In civil engineering, it is successfully applied to areas like optimal design of
structures, earthquake characterization, damage detection etc. It is found to be efficient for
analysing structures which are otherwise very difficult to analyse due to various constraints.
Different approaches have been used in the past to analyse the infilled-framed structures. In
general, the theoretical studies were followed by experiments to evaluate the reliability of the
proposed method. In most of the experimental investigations, only models are used since
testing of prototype structures will be costly, time consuming and laborious. The infill walls
are used as partitions and / or architectural elements. The presence of infill is usually
neglected in conventional designs. Since the interaction between the frame and the infill plays
an important role in the stiffness and strength of infilled frames, a method in which the infill
portion is neglected will not be a realistic one.
Maurizio Papia [1998] used numerical analysis to examine the behaviour of infilled frames
subjected to horizontal loads. Stafford Smith [1962] studied the behaviour of infilled frames
subjected to inplane loading, by replacing the infill by an equivalent strut and considering the
445
infill neither as an integral part nor bonded to the frame. Stafford Smith and Carter [1969]
considered the possibility of failure occurring either by diagonal cracking or by crushing of
infill. By an analogy with the behaviour of beam on elastic foundation, the contact length was
expressed as a function of λh, where λ is a non-dimensional parameter. The method was
evaluated by testing a three-storey prototype building. The estimated values agreed well with
the experimental results. A six-storey steel frame with rigid joints was analysed by Jenkins
[1995] using ANN. He concluded that ANNs could be used for the analysis provided the
training data is sufficient and the number of units in the hidden layer is adequate to represent
the internal features and relationships connecting input and output values. Muralikrishna and
Gangadharam [1999] investigated a single bay single storey portal frame subjected to inplane
nodal loads and demonstrated that ANN can accommodate the non-linear behaviour of
infill/frame materials as well as their non-homogeneity and, the uncertainties like lack of fit
at the frame/infill.
2. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
The present study is concerned with the prediction of the collapse load and the displacement
of infilled reinforced concrete frames under lateral loading using ANN .For this, a five storey
building with number of bays ranging from one to five is considered. The data for training
and testing were formed using analytical results.For generating the data analytically,
equivalent strut method was used. The database consists of 63 sets of results, of which 55 sets
were used for training the network, and the remaining 8 were used for testing
2.1. Equivalent Strut Method
The design method based on equivalent strut concept developed by Stafford Smith and Carter
[1969] is used here for the analysis. This method predicts the lateral strength and stiffness of
the brick infilled composite frame .
The stiffness and strength of an infilled panel depend not only on its dimensions and physical
properties but also on its length of contact with the surrounding frames. The length of contact
α is governed by the relative stiffness of the infill and the frame and Stafford Smith and
Carter [1969] suggest an approximate relation,

h


2h
(1)
in which h= height of storey and λh = a nondimensional parameter expressing the relative
stiffness of the frame and the infill ,
 h 4
446
E m t sin 2
4E c I c h
(2)
where Em = Young’s modulus of elasticity of infill, t = Thickness of infill, h1 = Height of
infill ,Ic = Second moment of area of the column, Ec = Young’s modulus of elasticity of
column concrete and θ = Slope of the infill diagonal to the horizontal.
The relative stiffness parameter λh provides the key to the estimation of an infilled frame’s
behaviour, and it therefore assumes a prominent role in the development and presentation of
the methods for predicting the strength and stiffness.
In estimating the lateral strength of an infilled frame, it is necessary to find the weakest of the
various modes of failure of the frame and the infill. The possible failure modes of the frame
include the tensile failure of the columns and beams, shear failure of the column and, joint
failure between the column and the beam.
An approximate method to determine the strength, based on these modes, is to analyse the
forces in the equivalent pin-jointed frame subjected to known horizontal loading, assuming
the infills to be replaced by diagonal struts. The calculated tensile load in the column and
beam and the shearing components of the load in the diagonal struts may then be compared
with the respective strengths of the columns and beams. Assuming the frame has adequate
strength, the brick infill may fail by one of the following modes.
-Tension cracking of the mortar joints and masonry
-Shear cracking along the interface between the bricks and mortar (bed joints)
-Local crushing of the masonry at the mortar in one of the compressed corners of the infill.
2.1.1 Diagonal cracking of infill
The diagonal tensile strength of masonry may be assumed to be equal to the tensile strength
of the mortar in all cases where the mortar has lower tensile strength than the individual
bricks. Using the curves relating the width of the of the equivalent strut and the
nondimensional parameter λh given by Stafford Smith and Carter [1969] , the diagonal
cracking tensile strength of brickwork was obtained by Govindan [1986] as
l
Rt
 3.1 l
ft h t
h
l



0.98
 h
0.48
 ll 


 l 
h 

-0.1
(3)
where Rt = Diagonal load on the infill to cause cracking, ft = Tensile stress of the infill and
l1 = length of infill.
2.1.2. Shear strength of infill
The resistance of masonry to shear stresses is usually considered to be provided by the
combined action of the bond, shear strength and the friction between the masonry and mortar.
Using the design curves given by Stafford Smith and Carter [1969], the following
447
relationship was derived by Govindan [1986] for calculating the shear failure load of the
infill.
l
Rs
 1.65 l
fs ht
h
l



0.6
 h
 ll

 l
-0.05 h




0.50
(4)
where Rs = Diagonal load on the infill to cause shear failure of infill and fs = Maximum
shear stress of the infill.
2.1.3. Compressive failure
After cracking in the brick infill due to shear and/or tension, it has been observed from
experiments that the corner region of the infill, where crushing takes place generally extends
along the column contact length α. Based on this, Stafford Smith and Carter [1969]
developed an approximate formula for the diagonal compressive strength
Rc = α t Secθ fm
(5)
where Rc = Compressive failure load and fm = Compressive stress of the infill. Substituting
the value of α, the compressive failure load can be expressed in the nondimensional form as
Rc


sec 
fm ht 2 h
(6)
. For a given infilled frame, λh can be calculated and these expressions can be used to obtain
ll
the failure load corresponding to the infill for any aspect ratio,
hl
.
Unit load method has been used for calculating the deflection of the frames. The equivalent
strut width for each individual panel in a multistory building varies with the applied loading
and consequently, the stiffness of the structure decreases as the lateral load increases. The
stiffness of the equivalent frame for any value of load can be determined by considering
appropriate equivalent widths of the diagonal struts for the particular load and computing
FUL
Σ A E . It is often useful to know the total lateral displacement at a particular loading. Based
on the Mechanics of materials approach, the horizontal displacement under any load as given
by Stafford Smith and Carter [1969] is
δH= H Σf
FUL H 2
+
A I E 2 Hc
Σs
FUL A I _ A C
AE
A I .A C
(7)
where δH = total horizontal displacement under applied load, H = Applied load, Σf =
Summation sign for all beams and columns in the frame including diagonal strut, Σs =
Summation sign for all diagonal struts only, F= force in members due to applied load H, U =
Force in members due to unit load applied, at the point and in the direction in which
448
displacement is required, AI = Initial cross-sectional area of members, including diagonal
strut when H/Hc=0. Ac = Cross-sectional area of diagonal struts when H/Hc=1 in critical
panel, all others proportioned accordingly, E= Modulus of elasticity of frame members and
infill, Hc = Horizontal load, to cause crushing in the critical panel infill, determined from the
appropriate value of Rc / (fm. h t ) for the particular value of λh, L=Length of member.
2.2. Identification of Parameters
Based on a critical study of the parameters affecting the strength and stiffness of infilled
frames, ten major parameters were identified. They are; aspect ratio, number of bays, area of
column, column steel, column stirrups, area of beam, beam steel, type of concrete, type of
steel used for the construction and a non-dimensional parameter λh representing the infill
behaviour. Concrete of grades C20, C25, C30, C35 and steel of grade S420 and S500 are
used in the analysis. Hence the number of nodes or processing elements in the input layer of
the network comes to 14 representing the ten parameters listed above plus the four extra
grades for concrete and steel considered. The output layer consists of three nodes for the
collapse loads corresponding to frame as well as infill and the top storey displacement of the
frame at the verge of failure.
Table 1. Range of Values for Data Base
Parameter
Symbol
Range
Aspect ratio
l/h
1 to 2.5
No.of bays
B
1 to 5
Area of column
Ac
0.02 to 0.15
Area of column steel
Acst
Area of beam
Ab
0.0068 to 0.0100
m2
0.05 to 0.12 m2
Area of beam steel
Abst
Area of stirrups
Asv
Non-dimensional
parameter
Grade of concrete
449
characteristic
length Λh
C20,C25,C30
C35
0.000315
0.00250 m2
0.000195
0.00113 m2
to
to
2 to 15
and 20, 25, 30 and 35
MPa
Grade of steel
S420,S500
420, 500 MPa
2.3 Configuration of the Network
2.3.1 Selection of error tolerance
A numerical study of training and testing of the network was done keeping the error tolerance
values as 0.1, 0.01 and 0.001.For an error tolerance of 0.1, the number of cycles required is
less: but the results are less accurate. In the case of 0.001, even though the accuracy is high,
the numbers of cycles required are very high. Hence, keeping in mind the number of cycles
required for convergence together with the accuracy needed for training and testing, the error
tolerance was chosen as 0.01.
2.3.2 Selection of number of hidden layers.
The first step in the configuration of the network is the selection of the number of hidden
layers to be used. The parametric study is made to find out the optimum number of hidden
layers as well as the number of nodes for the present problem. With one hidden layer, the
architecture is able to attain the required error tolerance of 0.01 within 5000 cycles
considered for all the combinations of neurons considered. The network with one hidden
layers having the 14-10-3 architecture is chosen since it reaches the required error tolerance
with the least number of cycles, which in turn will reduce the CPU time requirement.
2.3.3 Selection of learning rate and momentum parameters
For the chosen architecture of 14-10-3, the number of cycles required to reach the desired
error tolerance of 0.01 are computed for different learning rates and momentum parameters.
The results are shown in Table 2. From the table, it can be seen that a learning rate of 0.7 and
momentum parameter of 0.9 are the optimum values since only this combination requires the
minimum number of cycles to achieve the required error tolerance. Hence, these values are
used in the analysis.
2.3.4 Training of the network
Using the 14-10-3 architecture and the learning rate, momentum parameter values of 0.7, 0.9
, the network is trained and then tested. For training the network, totally 55 data set are used
which are listed under Table 2. These data sets were generated analytically using the
equivalent strut method.
450
Table 2. Data Set Used Training
INPUT
OUTPUT
B
l/h
S420
S500
C20
C25
C30
C35
Ac
Ab
Acst
Abst
λh
Asv
C-F
C-I
Δ
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0.02
0.02
0.0068
0.000315
2
0.000195
18.8
89.34
25.467
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0.06
0.05
0.0214
0.001030
6
0.000503
61.1
186.9
34.896
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0.06
0.05
0.0214
0.001030
10
0.000503
61.1
136.80
35.769
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
5
1.5
0
1
0
0
1
0
0.11
0.08
0.0357
0.001730
10
0.000785
826
766.7
121.133
5
2
0
1
0
0
1
0
0.11
0.08
0.0357
0.001730
4
0.000785
1035
547
70.98
5
2
0
1
0
0
1
0
0.11
0.08
0.0357
0.001730
8
0.000785
1035
899
142.049
NOT: C-F = Collapse load corresponding to frame in kN , C-I= Collapse load corresponding to infill in kN, Δ=
Displacement of frame at the top level under collapse load in mm.
2.3.5 Testing of the network
The network, after being trained, is tested with 8 data sets.. The data sets used for testing the
network are shown in Table 3.
Table 3. Data Set Used Testing
INPUT
OUTPUT
B
l/h
S420
S500
C20
C25
C30
C35
Ac
Ab
Acst
Abst
λh
Asv
C-F
C-I
Δ
2
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0.05
0.05
0.0214
0.001030
6
0.000503
148
301.1
61.383
2
2.5
0
1
0
0
1
0
0.11
0.08
0.0357
0.001730
4
0.000785
546
217.6
28.237
3
1.5
1
0
0
1
0
0
0.06
0.05
0.0214
0.001030
6
0.000503
322
612.4
42.905
3
2
0
1
0
0
1
0
0.11
0.08
0.0357
0.001730
8
0.000785
658
515.2
81.409
4
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0.02
0.02
0.0068
0.000315
2
0.000195
101
281.3
11.115
4
1.5
1
0
0
1
0
0
0.06
0.05
0.0214
0.001030
2
0.000503
429
394.3
46.650
5
2
0
1
0
0
1
0
0.11
0.08
0.0357
0.001730
8
0.000785
1035
899
142.049
5
2.5
0
1
0
0
0
1
0.15
0.12
0.0510
0.002500
15
0.001130
1795
700.6
110.669
3. RESULTS and DISCUSSION
451
The collapse load and displacement predicted using ANN is compared with the actual values
in Fig.1. In these figures, the diagonal lines represent a one to one correspondence, that is,
when the predicted and the actual values are identical.
The results clearly show that for the frame and infill failure, the collapse load values
predicted using neural network vary only marginally (the maximum variation is only 4%)
from the actual values for the data formed using equivalent strut method. In the case of the
displacement of the frame under collapse load, the predicted values using neural network
vary only marginally (maximum of 5%) from the actual values, be it based on experiments or
equivalent strut method. It can be stated that overall the prediction is very good.
Figure 1. Comparison of predicted and actual values.
4. CONCLUSION
The conventional analysis of infilled frames is complex due to the large number of
parameters and the non-linear behaviour involved. Hence, the practice is to ignore the
contribution from the infill and analyse the structure as a bare frame. However, it is well
known that the infill affects the behaviour of the structure significantly. In this context,
Artificial Neural Network is increasingly used effectively as a tool for the analysis of infilled
reinforced concrete frames. In this paper, a multilayer feed forward network with back
452
propagation algorithm has been adopted to model a five storey infilled frame with number of
bays ranging from one to five. The training patterns were generated using the equivalent strut
method with different modes of failures in the frame and infill to arrive at the collapse load
for the infill and frame as well as the displacements. The performance of the network has
been demonstrated by comparing the output with the analytically generated values. Based on
the investigation, it can be stated that ANN models can predict the behaviour of infilled
frames efficiently.
REFERENCES
Maurizio, P. (1988). Analysis of Infilled Frames Using a Coupled Finite Element and
Boundary Element Solution Scheme. International Journal of Numerical Methods in
Engineering, 28, 731-742.
Stafford, S. B. (1962). Lateral Stiffness of Infilled Frames’, Journal of Structural Divisions,
ASCE, 88, 183-199.
Stafford, S.B. & Carter, C. (1969). A Method of Analysis for Infilled Frames’, Proceedings
of the Institution of Civil Engineers 44, 31-48.
Jenkins, W.M., (1995). Neural Network Based Approximation for Structural Analysis.
Developments in Neural Networks and Evolutionary Computing for Civil and Structural
Engineering. Edinburgh.
Muralikrishna, N. & Gangadharam, D. (1999). Analysis of Infilled Frames a Study Using
Neuralnets’, Journal of Structural Engineering, 26, 173-178.
Laurence, F. (1993). Fundamentals of neural network-Architectures, Algorithms, and
Applications’. Prentice Hall, Eaglewood Cliffs: NJ 1993.
Hojjat, A & Hyo S. P. (1995). Counter propagation neural networks in structural engineering’
, Journal of Structural Division, ASCE, 14 , 1205-1212.
Wael, W. E., Mohamed, E. & Ahmad, H. (2003). ‘Three strut model for concrete masonry
infilled steel frames. Journal of structural Division ASCE , 129, 177-185.
Perumal, E. B. (1995). Influence of Brick Infill on Multistory, Multi-bay R.C.Frames’, Ph.D
Thesis, Coimbatore Institute of Technology, Coimbatore.
Govindan, P. (1986). Composite Action and Ductility of Reinforced Concrete Frames With
Brick Infill’, Ph.D Thesis, Anna University
453
A Cross – Sectional Analysis of Environmetal Sustainability Practices
Toksari Murat1, Uçan Okyay2
1Nigde University, Department of Business,
2Nigde University, Department of Economics
Abstract
In 1970s and 1980s the concept of sustainability developed as a process of protection for the
elements that social, economic and eceological systems need. During the Environment and
Development Summit held in 1992, decisions were made about the works to protect and
improve the environmental sustainability with the help of objective policies. By revealing
sustainability specifically focuses on the social, economic and ecological target, Brountland
report states that meeting Socia-Economic needs is limited to the carrying capacity of ecosystem.
Environmental sustainability is divided into three categories. They are resource management,
energy management and product sustainability. While, solid waste and water conservation
compose the resource managament, energy managament includes energy conservation,
renewable energy, GHG emission reduction, energy sufficient. Finally, product sustainability
involves product transportation, supply chain audit, product stewardship and Life Cycle
Program.
In this context, environmental sustainability index and environmental performance index
were prepared by the universities of Yale and Colombia. With environmental sustainability
index, it is intented to reach perfection in the current and future environmental qualities of the
countries. This index, is a tool when aiming to be qualified and is an important mechanism
for testing the environmental performance. As for environmental performance index, it has
been developed by using result-oriented indicators.
In this study, the countries whose performances enter the scope of the environmental
performance index were compared, 149 countries in 2008 and 163 countries in 2010 were
included in this index.
Keywords: Sustainability, environmental performance index, environmental sustainability
index, Turkey
454
1.INTRODUCTION
Dictionary meaning of the concept of sustainable is “today's needs without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs met unless otherwise
indicated”. The concept of sustainability in the final report in 1987 by the United Nations
Commission on Environment and Development is defined as follows: "Humanity, without
compromising the ability to respond to the needs of future generations, by providing the daily
needs, has the ability to make development sustainable”.
The term “sustainability” was coined by the United Nations appointed Brundland
Commission and later refined by the UN Commission on Environment and Development held
in Rio de Janeiro (Blackburn, 2007). The best – known definition of sustainability, as
established by the UN Commission on Environment and Development, states that
“development is sustainable where it meets the needs of the present without compromising
the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987).
The concept of sustainability on different topics in the discipline of economic
stability, debt sustainability in order to be able to express the ability of being able to continue,
such as sustainable growth around the macro-economic definitions are used extensively.
However, the concept of sustainability in all areas, especially in the field of economics
Brundland by the World Commission on Environment and Development Report, has
expanded the definition of sustainable development.
Since the 1980s, the development of international environmental discussions of
sustainable development, applied science, environmental and international policy areas
examined as a multi-faceted concept that has become the focal point of development
strategies (Carvalho, 2001: 62; Bakırtaş ve Bakırtaş, 2007: 223).
Sustainable Development, briefly, to meet the demands and needs of future
generations without restricting the ability and facilities, can be expressed as the present needs
are met.
This defines the extent of development mentioned above, under six headings
summaries spreadable. These are can be expressed as the environment, the future, quality of
life, justice, precautionary principles, and holistic thinking. In addition, there are 3
dimensions of the sustainability of the development which are indisputable and can not
distinguish between each other (Arzu Özyol, http://hydra.com.tr/uploads/kutup9.pdf):
Social Dimension: Continuing education for the public "quality of life will provide increasing
benefits for themselves and the whole of the next generations,
455
The Economic Dimension: Due to limited resources, these resources can improve people's
quality of life and how the fairest way to determine what is the most effective way to
distribute
The Environmental Dimension: Recycled or not, the use of any determination as to ensure
the continuity of natural resource
In this context, one of the dimensions of the environmental dimension of sustainable
development for environmental sustainability are discussed for the first time in the capital of
Brazil, Rio De Janeiro on Environment and Development Summit held in 1992. In this
summit, the objective of environmental sustainability is necessary for the protection and
development policies, concluded that the aid. The most important work in this area of
Environmental Sustainability Index (CSI) 's prepared. This index is prepared jointly by Yale
University and Columbia University. Index has 21 indicators is entegrated to 76 data. This 21
quality indicators provide to compare five different subjects: the peripheral system, stress
levels of this system, the human population sensitivity to environmental degradation,
environmental stress and institutional capacity and global resposibility (Global Leaders,
2001:9).
The paper organized as follows. Section 2 discusses the theoretical background.
Section 3 summarizes the literature.The methodology is presented in Section 4. The overall
conclusion and result are in the final section.
2. Theoretical Background
Although sustainability is important for ensuring the future Quality of the global
environment, it can also be viewed as a business opportunity, an investment in the future and
a pathway to innovation and creative thinking (Satterfield et al. 2009; Hontou et al. 2006;
Cowan et al. 2010).
Today business, now more sensitivity towards environmental activities as a cost item
or to see the threat of competition as an oppurtunity rather than one have to see (Lee et al.,
2006: 292). For this reason, environmental innovation can be stated as environmental risk
education or more generally as a contribution to sustainable development goals, new ideas,
attitudias, development and implemntation of products and process (Rennizgs, 2000: 322).
Environmental product innovation in the production and even the destruction of the product
until they begin to become waste throughout the product life cycle to eliminate or reduce the
negative effects on the environment includes the innovative activities (Büyükkeklik et al.,
2010: 375).
456
3. Literature
Author
Year
Method
Result
Robert Goodland 1996
and Herman Daly
Distinguishing
development
from
sustainability and from growth, the paper
describes the concept of natural capital and
uses the concept to present four alternative
definitions of environmental sustainability.
The final section describes
how one large development
agency, the World Bank, is
endeavoring to incorporate
these new principle into its
operaions.
Gregory Theyel
2000
There are discernible differences in the
enviromental innovation and performance of
US chemical firms that can be explained by
differences in the management practices and
characteristics of the firms.
Firms in the chemical industry
and in other industries can
learn from the leading firms in
this research. Firms that do
mak
environmental
management part of production
management are likely to be
leaders in innovation for
pollution
prevention
and
environmental performance.
Smita
B. 2003
Brunnermeier
and Mark A.
Cohen
Panel data models to study how
environmental
sustainability
by
Us
manufacturing ındustries responded to
changes
in
pollution
abadement
expenditures and regulatory enforcement
during the period 1983 through 1992.
Environmental
innovation
responded to increases in
pollution
abatement
expenditures. Also find some
emprical
evidence
that
environmental innovation is
more likely to occur in
industries
that
are
internationally competitive.
Sergio et. al.
This paper anayses and discusses the
potentional role of evolutionary theories in
environmental innovation with emphasis on
sustainability.
The study concludes that eco –
evolution is efficient when
identifying non – optimal
technological trajectories and
sustainable
options
for
innovation on the base of
existent knowledge.
2003
Allen S. Bellas 2007
and Nancy F.
457
Following their introduction in the mid - Anslysis indicates that there
1970s, fabric filters, a new type of industrial are spesific characteristics of
Nentl
scrubber, experineced aggressive growth,
and by 1990, this new technology (EIA)
form 767, using t tests, cross tabulations and
binominal regression to identify the
characteistics of those boilers, plants and
utilities that installed fabric filters from the
alte 1970s to 1990.
David Hillier
2008
Dallas M. Cowan 2010
Et. Al.
early adopters of fabric filter
techonology such as the
capacity and age of the
associates boiler, the capacity
and size of the utility, and
whether the utility was
privately or publicly owned.
An opinion piece, that presents the view of There are those who believe
four authors on the current state of the that
marketing
and
depate in this field.
sustainability
simply
be
reconciled, while there are
others
who
argue
that
marketing can contribute to the
development of sustainable
consumption.
Benchmark analysis, They have collected
information on the sustainability programs
of the largest US companies in each of the
26 industrial sectors.
Thes have called product
sustainability one in which
toxicologist and environmental
scientist can play a vital role
helping to ensure that a
manufactured item will indeed
be considered acceptable for
distrubition now
4. Methodology
Environmental Sustainability Index was developed for monitoring of environmental
sustainability covering natural resources, past and present pollution levels, environmental
management efforts, contributions and society for the protection of the global values. This
index defines the sustainability of countries' capacity to improve the existing environmental
quality (Yıkmaz, 2011: 73).
Variables to allow comparisons between countries in the index, percent change is usually
determined. Some of them are diveded by GDP, imports of goods and services, to get avarage
values. After getting the proper comparison of variables, for the missing data, forecasting and
consolidation various transformations is applied to perform. In the first stage variables were
examined for normally distribution.
2 stage way is used for the skewness problems.
458
If the value is larger than 2 variables are taken in natural logarithm. Next, if they are larger
than 4 after the transformation .They all transformed to old values except the variables that
have larger than 4.
Since at the normal distribution, observations are distributed symmetrically around mean
value of skew is zero(0). Statistical methods to estimate the missing data (Markov ChainMonte Carlo simulation model) were applied. However, some variables, the index of
ecological and geographical factors are not within the scope of work because of missing data
could not be estimated.
The results of distributions are truncated by "Winsorization" technique in order to prevent
skewness because of the extreme values of the data. Priorities of the indicators vary by
country, generally acceptable weights for the indicators is not known, equal weight was
applied. Indicators are equally weighted variables in the form of the firms themselves.
Preserves the relative locations of receiving countries in order to avoid differences in the
scale of the z-scores were calculated. High values for the variables expressed in a high zscores of environmental sustainability; (variable value-mean value) / standard deviation of
the variables that environmental sustainability is for high-low values, (average of the
variable-variable value) / standard deviation was calculated using the formula (WEF, 2005).
5. Results and Conclusion
It’s emphasized that when Environmental Sustainability Index score is high, it’s more likely
to leave a healthier environment to the future generations. Upon looking into the results of the
index,it’s seen that none of the countries received high scores from 21 indicators. The results
of the Environmental Sustainability Index show that, environmental performance is closely
related to ,low population density, good governance the economic vitality (WEF, 2005).
Table 1. Countries in the years 2002 and 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)
Performance Comparison Chart
Country
ÇSE
2002
ÇSE 2002 ÇSE
Ranking
2005
ÇSE 2005 Çse Point ÇSE as the
Ranking
Difference Difference
Finland
73,9
1
75,1
1
1,2
0
Norway
73
2
73,4
2
0,4
0
Uruguay
66
6
71,8
3
5,8
3
459
Sweden
72,6
3
71,7
4
-0,9
-1
Iceland
63,9
8
70,8
5
6,9
3
Canada
70,6
4
64,4
6
-6,2
-2
Switzerland
66,5
5
63,7
7
-2,8
-2
Guyana
-
-
62,9
8
-
-
Austria
64,2
7
62,7
9
-1,5
-2
Argentina
61,5
15
62,7
10
1,2
5
Brazil
59,6
20
62,2
11
2,6
9
Gabon
54,9
36
61,7
12
6,8
24
Australia
60,3
16
61
13
0,7
3
New
Zealand
59,9
19
61
14
1,1
5
Latvia
63
10
60,4
15
-2,6
-5
Peru
56,5
29
60,4
16
3,9
13
Paraguay
57,8
25
59,7
17
1,9
8
Costa Rica
63,2
9
59,6
18
-3,6
-9
Croatia
62,5
12
59,5
19
-3
-7
Bolivia
59,4
21
59,5
20
0,1
1
Irelan
54,8
38
59,2
21
4,4
17
Colombia
59,1
22
58,9
22
-0,2
0
Lithuania
57,2
27
58,9
23
1,7
4
Alabania
57,9
24
58,8
24
0,9
0
460
Central
African
Republic
54,1
43
58,7
25
4,6
18
Estonia
60
17
58,2
26
-1,8
-9
Denmark
56,2
31
58,2
27
2
4
Panama
60
18
57,7
28
-2,3
-10
Slovenia
58,8
23
57,5
29
-1,3
-6
Japan
48,6
78
57,3
30
8,7
48
Germany
52,5
50
57
31
4,5
19
Namibia
57,4
26
56,8
32
-0,6
-6
Russia
49,1
73
56,1
33
7
40
Bostwana
61,8
13
55,9
34
-5,9
-21
France
55,5
33
55,2
35
-0,3
-2
Papua New 51,8
Guinea
52
55,2
36
3,4
16
Portugal
57,1
28
54,2
37
-2,9
-9
Malaysia
49,5
68
54
38
4,5
30
Congo
54,3
40
53,8
39
-0,5
1
Netherlands
55,4
34
53,7
40
-1,7
-6
Mali
47,1
85
53,7
41
6,6
44
Chile
55,1
35
53,6
42
-1,5
-7
Bhutan
56,3
30
53,5
43
-2,8
-13
Armenia
54,8
37
53,2
44
-1,6
-7
461
Unites States 53,2
45
53
45
-0,2
0
Slovakia
61,6
14
52,8
46
-8,8
-32
Belarus
52,8
49
52,8
47
0
2
Ghana
50,2
65
52,8
48
2,6
17
Myanmar
46,2
90
52,8
49
6,6
41
Laos
45,9
92
52,5
50
6,6
42
Ecuadar
56,2
32
52,4
51
-3,8
-19
Cuba
51,2
58
52,3
53
1,1
5
Hungary
62,7
11
52
54
-10,7
-43
Tunisia
50,8
61
51,8
55
1
6
Georgia
-
-
51,5
56
-
-
Uganda
48,7
77
51,3
57
2,6
20
Moldova
54,5
39
51,2
58
-3,3
-19
Zambia
49,5
69
51,1
59
1,6
10
Senegal
47,6
81
51,1
60
3,5
21
Bosnia51,3
Hezzegovina
55
51
61
-0,3
-6
Israel
50,4
63
50,9
62
0,5
1
Tanzania
48,1
80
50,3
63
2,2
17
Nicaragua
51,8
51
50,2
64
-1,6
-13
46,1
91
50,2
65
4,1
26
Combined
Kingdom
462
Madagascar
38,8
128
50,2
66
11,4
62
Greece
50,9
60
50,1
67
-0,8
-7
Italy
47,2
83
50,1
68
2,9
15
Cambodia
45,6
97
50,1
69
4,5
28
Mongolia
54,2
42
50
70
-4,2
-28
Bulgaria
49,3
71
50
71
0,7
0
Gambia
44,7
102
50
72
5,3
30
Thailand
51,6
54
49,8
73
-1,8
-19
Malawi
47,3
82
49,3
74
2
8
Spain
54,1
44
48,8
75
-5,3
-3,1
Indonesia
45,1
100
48,8
76
3,7
24
Kazakhstan
46,5
88
48,6
77
2,1
11
Guenia
Bissau
38,8
127
48,6
78
9,8
49
Sri Lanka
51,3
57
48,5
79
-2,8
-22
Kyrgyzstan
51,3
56
48,4
80
-2,9
-24
Venezuela
53
48
48,1
81
-4,9
-33
Guinea
45,3
98
48,1
82
2,8
16
Oman
40,2
120
47,9
83
7,7
37
Jordan
51,7
53
47,8
84
-3,9
-31
Nepal
45,2
99
47,7
85
2,5
14
Benin
45,7
94
47,5
86
1,8
8
463
Honduras
47
47,4
87
-5,7
-40
Serbia and Montenegro
-
47,3
88
-
-88
Canary
Islands
-
-
47,3
89
-
-
Macedonia
47,2
84
47,2
90
0
-6
Turkey
50,8
62
46,6
91
-4,2
-29
Czech
Republic
50,2
64
46,6
92
-3,6
-28
Romenia
50
66
46,2
93
-3,8
-27
South Africa
48,7
76
46,2
94
-2,5
-18
Mexico
45,9
93
46,2
95
0,3
-2
Algeria
49,4
70
46
96
-3,4
-26
Burkina
Faso
45
101
45,7
97
0,7
4
Azerbaijan
41,8
113
45,4
98
3,6
15
Nigeria
36,7
133
45,4
99
8,7
34
Kenya
46,3
89
45,3
100
-1
-11
India
41,6
116
45,2
101
3,6
15
Poland
46,7
87
45
102
-1,7
-15
Chad
45,7
95
45
103
-0,7
8
Niger
39,4
123
45
104
5,6
19
Mozambique 51,1
59
44,8
105
-6,3
-46
Morocco
72
44,8
106
-4,3
-34
464
53,1
49,1
Rwanda
40,6
119
44,8
107
4,2
12
Jamaica
40,1
121
44,7
108
4,6
13
Ukraine
35
136
44,7
109
9,7
27
United Arab 25,7
Emirates
141
44,6
110
18,9
31
Togo
44,3
105
44,5
111
0,2
-6
Belgium
39,1
125
44,4
112
5,3
13
Bangladesh
46,9
86
44,1
113
-2,8
-27
Democratic
43,3
Republic of
Congo
109
44,1
114
0,8
-5
Guetemala
49,6
67
44
115
-5,6
-48
Egyptian
48,8
74
44
116
-4,8
-42
El Salvador
48,7
75
43,8
117
-4,9
-42
Syria
43,6
107
43,8
118
0,2
-11
Deminic
Republic
48,4
79
43,7
119
-4,7
-40
Liberia
37,7
130
43,4
120
5,7
10
Sierra Leone
36,5
134
43,4
121
6,9
13
South Korea
35,9
135
43
122
7,1
13
Angola
42,4
110
42,9
123
0,5
-13
Resource: WEF 2005
142 countries in 2002 and 146 countries in 2005 were evaluated from the aspect of country
index. All the countries except Guayana, Georgia, Ivory Coasts and Somalia were both in
2002 and 2005 country index.
465
In the table given the index average of all countries in 2002 was 49,7 and 49,9 in 2005. But
when 2002 and 2005 index values are compared, a decrease in most of the countries has been
seen. This situation indicates that environmental sustainability has decreased or it may be
because of the difference in two years indicators.
However, significant changes in country rankings can be observed. For example, Madagascar
ascends from being 128th to 66th , Japan from 78th to the 30th, Mali from 85th to 41st ,
Russia from 73rd to 33rd , Malaysia from 68th to the 38th order , but Zimbabwe descends
from being 46th to 128th, Guatemala from 67th to 115th , Egypt from 74th to 116th, and
Hungary from 11th to 54th. Turkey has 50,8 points in 2002 Index with an order of 62. In
2005 Turkey has 46,6 points and descends to the 91th order. Turkey is over the avarage in
2002 while it is under the avarage in 2005.
In this study we try to compare the two Environmental Sustainability Index in 2002 and 2005
for the world countries. This situation shows the index is very sensitive to the choice of
indicator. Low-scoring countries in 2002 are Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, North Korea,
Iraq and Saudi Arabia, while in the 2005 study, North Korea, Iraq, Taiwan, Turkmenistan and
Uzbekistan, countries receive the lowest score The highest rated 5 countries in the 2002
Environmental Sustainability Index are: Finland, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Switzerland,
while in 2005 they are: Finland, Norway, Uruguay, Sweden and Iceland. Common features of
these countries have significant natural resources and population density is low.
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to Achieving Social, Economic and Environmental Responsibility Earthscan, Washington,
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http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/es/esi/esı2005 (23.04.2012).
Stewardship,
Traffic Accident Detection By Using Machine Learning Methods
Nejdet Dogru, Abdulhamit Subasi
International Burch University,Sarajevo, Bosnia And Herzegovina
Abstract
There are lots of studies about preventing or detecting the car accidents. Most of them
includes sensing objects which might cause accident or statistics about accidents. In this
study, a system which detects happening accidents will be studied. The system will collect
necessary information from neighbor vehicles and process that information using machine
learning tools to detect possible accidents. Machine learning algorithms have shown success
on distinguishing abnormal behaviors than normal behaviors. This study aims to analyze
traffic behavior and consider vehicles which move different than current traffic behavior as a
possible accident. Results showed that clustering algorithms can successfully detect
accidents.
1.INTRODUCTION
Recent inter vehicular studies are acquiring commercial interest via the DSRC/WAVE
standard in Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs). Possible future services among vehicles
are topic of many studies(Xu et al., 2004; Nandan et al., 2005; Lee and Gerla, 2010)
In VANETs, vehicles are able to communicate with each other in vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) or
with roadside network infrastructure in vehicle-to-Roadside Communication (V2R) manner.
Some of the envisioned applications for vehicular networks are : vehicle collision warning,
security distance warning, driver assistance, cooperative driving, cooperative cruise
control,dissemination of road information, internet access, map location, automatic parking,
driverless vehicles(Boukerche et al., 2008)
Most of applications need traffic speed and travel time measurements. These measurements
can be used to help roadway users to decide which route to use or when to depart etc. Also
These measurement can be saved to analyze traffic speed and travel time patterns for
different time intervals. Currently local detectors at specific points along the road are used to
468
measure the speed. New approach is to equip vehicles with communication and location
devices to measure their speed and travel time. Some studies have shown that cellular
networks can be used to identify vehicle’s location using cellular phone base station
communication records(Bar-Gera, 2007)
Safe navigation support has also become one of the main research topic with the help of
DSRC/WAVE standardization(Jiang et al., 2006). For instance, collision or road condition
warning messages can be forwarded to following vehicles. Beside DSRC/WAVE standards,
2/3G cellular networks can be used to enable message exchange among vehicles(Boukerche
et al., 2008; Lee and Gerla, 2010)
In this study, we will use machine learning methods to analyze collected information from
vehicles to detect forward collisions. Drivers will be alerted about collision and they will
have time to take precaution to avoid piled-up collision.
2.BACKGROUND
Recently, automatic incident detection has attracted much attention in freeway control
systems to reduce traffic delay, advance road safety, capacity an

(ISSD`12) May 31 - June 1, 2012 Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina

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