Canada Research Baylin Technologies Inc.
Transcription
Canada Research Baylin Technologies Inc.
Canada Research Published by Raymond James Ltd. January 20, 2014 Baylin Technologies Inc. BYL-TSX Company Report - Initiation of Coverage Steven Li CFA | 416.777.4918 | [email protected] Jonathan Lo (Associate) | 416.777.6414 | [email protected] Rating & Target Target Price (6-12 mos): Current Price ( Jan-16-14 ) Total Return to Target 52-Week Range IT Hardware Initiating Coverage of Baylin at Outperform Event Suitability Initiating coverage of Baylin Technologies Inc. (Baylin) at Outperform. Aggressive Growth Recommendation Antennas are essential to wireless communications, becoming more complex (5G), and increasingly critical as smartphone growth shifts to emerging markets (less developed infrastructure). For 35 years, Baylin has supplied custom engineered antennas, leveraging its antenna technology and vertical integration, and now looks poised to gain further share. We concede recent Samsung developments keep our enthusiasm in check nearterm, but with a solid longer-term growth outlook we would use price weaknesses to accumulate positions. Analysis Multiple Plays on Wireless Market Expansion. Baylin focuses on three wireless segments: mobile, wireless infrastructure (small cell and DAS), and broadband (Wi-Fi routers and hotspots). Collectively, we estimate these markets have a TAM of 7+ bln antennas annually and we expect the TAM to double by 2017. Proven Vertical Integration/Time to Market Advantages. Baylin has successfully parlayed its antenna technology and vertical integration into a strong reputation for high quality and reliable antennas and, importantly, time to market. These advantages have won Baylin antenna slots for all four of the Galaxy S smartphones. Samsung’s phenomenal growth has kept a capital-constrained Baylin busy. With the IPO proceeds and the planned Vietnam expansion, Baylin now has the capacity to chase additional tier 1 customers. Samsung Opportunity & Risk. Baylin faces high customer concentration. This brings both opportunities and risks. By locating next door to Samsung’s Vietnam plant, Baylin has the opportunity to gain share with Samsung, but near-term there is also risk as Samsung appears to have materially lowered its 2014 smartphone projections recently. It is possible Samsung’s slowdown comes primarily from developed markets where smartphone penetration is maturing (in which case Baylin would have more exposure as it supplies the Galaxy series). Model. F2014 estimates include revenues of $83.5 mln (+3% y/y), gross margin of 31.5% (vs. 33% in 2013), and EPS of $0.36 (flat y/y) – muted due to Samsung’s recent developments. We expect revenue growth, gross margins, and EPS to recover in 2015 as its Vietnam expansion comes on-line and its infrastructure business continues its very fast growth rate, organically and through M&A. Market Data Market Capitalization (mln) Current Net Debt (mln) Enterprise Value (mil.) Shares Outstanding (mln, f.d.) 10 Day Avg Daily Volume (000s) Dividend/Yield Key Financial Metrics 2012A 2013E P/E nm 19.8x EV/EBITDA 10.7x 8.0x EV/Revenue 1.4x 1.2x Our $9.00 target is based on 8.7x 2015E EBITDA or 15x 2015E EPS, in-line with its peers’ current year average trading multiples (8.9x EBITDA and 14.5x EPS). Please see our Valuation & Recommendation section for more details. 1Q Mar 2Q Jun 3Q Sep 4Q Dec Full Year Revenues (mln) EBITDA (mln) 2012A NA NA NA NA C$0.11 C$69 C$9 2013E 0.11A 0.35A 0.06A 0.01 0.36 81 12 2014E (0.01) 0.19 0.11 0.06 0.36 84 10 2015E NA NA NA NA 0.58 99 15 Source: Raymond James Ltd., Thomson One Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 29 and Analyst Certification on page 29. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 C$135 -C$39 C$96 18.7 64 C$0.00/0.0% 2014E 2015E 20.1x 12.5x 9.6x 6.4x 1.1x 1.0x Company Description Baylin Technologies, established in 1978, designs and manufactures antennas for mobile phones, home networking and wireless infrastructure. Valuation EPS Outperform 2 C$9.00 C$7.20 25% C$8.35 - C$7.00 Canada Research | Page 2 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Table of Contents Investment Thesis ............................................................................................................................... 3 Investment Risks ................................................................................................................................. 4 Company Background ......................................................................................................................... 6 Industry Overview & Market Analysis ................................................................................................ 8 Customer Concentration .................................................................................................................... 14 Geographic Breakdown ...................................................................................................................... 15 Product Portfolio ................................................................................................................................ 16 Competition ........................................................................................................................................ 20 Financial Model Highlights .................................................................................................................. 21 Financial Model Forecast .................................................................................................................... 21 Valuation & Recommendation ........................................................................................................... 22 Appendix: Financial Statements ......................................................................................................... 24 Appendix: Management & Board of Directors ................................................................................... 26 Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. Investment Thesis Multiple plays on wireless market expansion The broad story behind Baylin is of three growth opportunities within the wireless industry: mobile, wireless infrastructure, and broadband. According to Gartner, on the mobile front, while phone shipments are only expected to grow at a 3% CAGR from 2013 to 2017, smartphones are expected to grow much faster at 14% CAGR over the same period. Smartphones can contain as many as seven antennas (and potentially more in the future) while feature phones only contain between 3-4 antennas. As the market penetration for smartphones continues to increase globally, the multiplier effect is significant. With smartphone penetration continuing to increase and the number of wireless connected devices forecast by Cisco to rise to 10 billion by 2016, the wireless infrastructure will have to grow exponentially as well to help off-load the mobile cellular data demand. We believe this exponential growth of data traffic will drive an increasing need for wireless carriers to add not only spectral, but also transmission capacity by installing small cells and distributed antenna systems (DAS). The broadband antenna opportunity is in the home, and also just outside of the home. In the home, the proliferation of internet enabled devices (i.e. computers, mobile devices, media players, game consoles, set-top boxes (STB), TVs, digital cameras, etc.) means better home network equipment is needed to support the data capacity and speed requirements of consumers. Outside the home, we are seeing carriers and cablecos such as Shaw Communications extending broadband access from the home to anywhere in the city. Collectively, we estimate these markets have a total addressable market (TAM) of 7+ billion antennas annually and we expect the TAM to double by 2017. Wrapping its arms around Samsung - Vietnam Expansion Baylin’s relationship with Samsung goes back to 2006 with the Samsung E250. Since then, this partnership has grown by leaps and bounds as Baylin eventually was awarded antenna slots for all four of the Galaxy S smartphones to date, amongst the 100+ projects they work on with Samsung every year. In recent years, Samsung has been moving its production facilities (50% according to recent reports from the Wall Street Journal) to Vietnam. Baylin plans to use $15 million of the IPO proceeds to construct a new manufacturing facility in Vietnam with Phase 1 expected to be completed during 3Q14. It recently finalized lease negotiations on locations only 25 minutes away from Samsung’s biggest manufacturing plant in the world in Thai Nguyen. Baylin’s new location in Vietnam will add capacity, add vertical integration (painting/plating) which means Baylin gets to keep more of the gross profit dollars, and strengthen its relationship with Samsung. Capacity is expected to increase by 100 million antennas annually, which will bring Baylin’s total annual antenna production capacity to over 400 million antennas, including 300 million at its China and South Korean facilities. In addition to continuing to supply Samsung on high profile / high volume projects (such as the Galaxy S series), in our opinion there are plenty of other opportunities as Samsung further penetrates emerging markets (where smartphone growth is faster). Incidentally, we believe antenna design becomes even more critical in emerging markets as often times you are much farther away from a cell tower (i.e. up to 10 km versus just 3 km in developed, mature markets). Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 3 of 34 Canada Research | Page 4 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. While today Samsung works with four main antenna design partners (EMW, Partron, and Ethertronics being the other three), only Baylin’s facilities will be in such close proximity for the time being. This could potentially be a significant share gain opportunity as Samsung would be less likely to purchase antennas from suppliers located in China if Baylin can also be a supplier next door. Large original equipment manufacturers (OEM) like Samsung naturally prefer to work with supply chain vendors located nearby (engineers can drive over in case of issues or for just-in-time and cost effective delivery of components, reducing the need for idle inventory for the OEMs). As we move to rear-case embedded antennas, a single vendor will be even more likely to win all of the antennas embedded in the rear-case due to the added complexity and design involved laser direct structuring (LDS) onto the case. We believe Baylin has the opportunity to increase its share of Samsung’s business. Baylin has proven vertical integration advantages – Now has the capacity to chase new customers Baylin is vertically integrated from design to manufacturing and has successfully parlayed its vertical integration advantages into a strong reputation for rapid design/prototyping, high quality and reliable antennas, and, importantly, time to market (especially for significant product launches like the Galaxy Series). These advantages have strengthened Baylin’s position as a major antenna designer (= bigger volume, higher margin) for all four of the Galaxy S smartphones to date (for instance, compare Baylin’s higher gross margin versus EMW and Partron). Baylin has continued to invest in innovative technologies with injection molding in 2006, high speed precision stamping in 2008, an in-house high precision tool making workshop in 2009, two-shot molding equipment in 2011, laser direct structuring equipment in 2012, and in 2014, the construction of the Vietnam facility will add in-house painting and plating production to further internalize its production processes. Samsung’s phenomenal smartphone growth has kept a capital-constrained Baylin busy. With the IPO proceeds and the planned Vietnam expansion, Baylin now has the capacity to chase new tier 1 customers with the pending hires of additional sales resources focused on non-Samsung opportunities. Investment Risks Customer concentration As would be expected from being part of one of the largest OEM’s (Samsung) supply chain, Baylin faces high customer concentration risk. In 2013, 79% of the Baylin’s revenues were related to Samsung (either directly or through its subcontractor original design manufacturers (ODM)). However, we estimate Baylin only supplies ~15% of Samsung’s mobile phone antennas. From Samsung’s perspective, there is limited vendor risk, it has little reliance on Baylin at current levels, and it typically takes design bids from an exclusive list of four vendors: EMW, Partron, Ethertronics, and Baylin. We believe there is a low probability that Samsung switches away from Baylin given their long-term relationship and Baylin’s willingness to cater to Samsung by locating its production and design facilities near Samsung’s. Near-term, there is some risk. On January 7, Samsung provided guidance for its F4Q13 that came in below consensus. Revenues of 59 trillion won (+5% y/y) were 2 trillion won below consensus, likely driven by weakness in high end smartphones. Operating profit of 8.3 trillion won was 15% below consensus. Mobile devices account for 2/3 of Samsung’s profits. Samsung also appears to have recently lowered its 2014 smartphone Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. projections from 360 million unit shipments (+20% y/y) to 330 million (+10% y/y). It is possible Samsung’s slowdown comes primarily from developed markets where smartphone penetration is maturing (in which case Baylin would have more exposure as it supplies the Galaxy series). Samsung's official results and sales are expected on January 23, 2014. Margin risk Related to Baylin’s customer concentration risk are pricing pressure and margin pressure risk. Given pressure on Samsung’s operating profits, it is possible we see Samsung seek more price concessions from its supply chain. There are mitigating factors that help Baylin: 1) On average, total antenna costs would amount to between $2.50-$3.50 per smartphone or ~1% of a smartphone’s bill of materials (BOM) cost. There are arguably better places for Samsung to try and lower costs as opposed to antennas, which are an increasingly critical component. For example, display and touch screen represent $50-$60 of the BOM costs or 20%; 2) Rising ASPs. Technology cycles for antenna manufacturers have varied from 3 to 5 years with newer technologies commanding higher ASPs and margins. Older antenna types used for feature phones made with metal element or flexible printed circuit board (PCB) technologies are still in use. However, Baylin has been investing in new technologies, including two-shot molding (TSMA) and most recently, laser direct structuring. These innovations have higher antenna yields, are easier to scale production, have fewer processing steps, and have more functionality per antenna. Baylin has upgraded production lines to LDS in China and South Korea significantly in 2013 and plans to install ~4 more LDS lines in Vietnam in Phase 1. Still, we would expect some pricing and margin pressure and have modeled accordingly with Baylin’s gross margins declining in 2014. Exhibit 1: Baylin’s Capex is Mostly Geared Toward Next Generation LDS Technology (2014 Forecasted) Source: Baylin Technologies Inc. OEM internalization of antenna design and/or production If Samsung or other key customers internalize antenna design and/or production through the acquisition of an antenna design competitor or through internal development there is a risk to Baylin’s revenues. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 5 of 34 Canada Research | Page 6 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Macroeconomic risk Baylin’s largest operating segment is mobile phone antennas, as these are linked to the end consumer it is highly correlated to global macroeconomic health. Illiquidity risk Stock volatility due to illiquidity. Baylin’s post-IPO market capitalization is under $200 million and as such there is limited liquidity in the stock. The company is earnings positive so we expect this risk to decline as its book equity and subsequent valuation increase. DAS adoption risk The company has suggested it expects DAS to be the future of its revenue generation. The proliferation of DAS is becoming more apparent as telecommunications carriers are looking to improve services to large buildings with inherently poor wireless service. If the adoption of DAS does not materialize as expected due to competing technology or currently non-existent innovations, this business segment may not grow as fast as expected. Managing fast growth Baylin has grown its revenue from $44 million in 2010 to $68 million in 2012, and we forecast $81 million in 2013. Baylin is a small technology company with growth accelerating rapidly and will be prone to the challenges of forecasting its results, defending itself from competitive threats, and managing its growth to remain profitable as it looks to meet customer volume demands. Company Background Baylin Technologies Inc. is the parent company of wholly-owned Galtronics, headquartered in Israel. For 35 years it has designed and manufactured antennas for mobile phones, home networking and land mobile devices, and wireless infrastructure. It has grown sales offices in North America, Europe, and Asia, and manufacturing centers in China and South Korea. With the funds from the IPO, it is expanding its antenna manufacturing capacity to 400 million per year (from 300 million currently) with a manufacturing facility in Vietnam. Baylin was established in 1978 as Galtronics, initially with one core customer, Motorola, in the development of custom antennas. Over the years, Baylin added several blue chip customers to its order book including Nokia, LG, and Qualcomm. Baylin’s track record is impressive in that they have shown an uncanny ability to adapt throughout the years by being a significant antenna provider to the #1 phone manufacturer at different points in time (Motorola, Nokia, and now Samsung). In the 1980s, Baylin made antennas for the Motorola Brick phone (the first mobile phone). In the 1990s it made antennas for the Motorola StarTAC clamshell (flip mobile) and the Nokia “2-in-1” retractable antenna phone. In 2006, Samsung became a significant customer, first with the Samsung E250, then eventually with the vastly popular Galaxy S series mobile phones starting in 2010. Baylin has won antenna slots for all four of the Galaxy S smartphones to date. The company operates in three industry segments: in 2013 we forecast mobile phones made up 79% of its revenue, broadband at 18%, and wireless infrastructure at 3%. The Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. company has a clear entrenchment in mobile phone antenna sales, but in an effort to diversify its customer base, Baylin has been expanding into the wireless infrastructure market; catering to the wireless carriers’ need to off-load data from their cellular networks onto distributed antenna systems and small cells, as smartphone and wireless data consumption proliferates around the world. Exhibit 2: Smartphones Use Up to Seven Antennas *Note: The near field communication (NFC) antenna is usually on the back of the battery as in the Samsung Nexus phone or on the inside of the back cover. Source: Baylin Technologies Inc., Raymond James Ltd. Exhibit 3: Baylin’s Innovative History Source: Baylin Technologies Inc. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 7 of 34 Canada Research | Page 8 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Industry Overview & Market Analysis Multiple plays on wireless market expansion The broad story behind Baylin is of three growth opportunities within the wireless industry: mobile, wireless infrastructure, and broadband. Exhibit 4: Smartphone Forecast of 14% CAGR from 2013 to 2017 Source: Gartner (October 2013 Gartner Report - Forecast Analysis Mobile Phone Production and Semiconductors, Worldwide, 3Q13 Update), Raymond James Ltd. Mobile – Multiplier Effect Antennas are small but vital components of mobile devices. According to Gartner, phone shipments will grow at a 3% CAGR from 1.9 billion phones in 2013 to 2.1 billion phones in 2017. Within this market expansion, smartphones are expected to grow much faster at 14% CAGR, from 1.1 billion smartphones in 2013 to 1.8 billion smartphones in 2017. While smartphones may contain as many as seven antennas (and potentially more in the future), feature phones only contain between 3-4 antennas. As the market penetration for smartphones continues to increase globally, the multiplier effect is significant. Assuming an average of five antennas per smartphone and two antennas per feature phone, we estimate a TAM of ~7 billion antennas annually in the mobile phone space. We expect the mobile antenna TAM to double by 2017, as smartphones with more antennas greatly outpace feature phone shipments (as of 2Q13, smartphone shipments have outpaced feature phones). Given Baylin’s relationship with Samsung, which currently holds a 32% global smartphone market share, we believe the company is poised to capture an increasing share of this TAM. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. Exhibit 5: Smartphone Shipments Outpaced Feature Phones in 2Q13 *Note: Years 2013 to 2017 shown as forecast Source: Gartner (October 2013 Gartner Report - Forecast Analysis Mobile Phone Production and Semiconductors, Worldwide, 3Q13 Update), Raymond James Ltd. Exhibit 6: Mobile Antenna TAM Expected to Double from 2013 to 2017 *Note: Assumed smartphone (feature) antennas: 5 (2) in 2013E-14E, 6 (3) in 2015E-16E, 7 (4) in 2017E; years 2013 to 2017 shown as forecast Source: Gartner (October 2013 Gartner Report - Forecast Analysis Mobile Phone Production and Semiconductors, Worldwide, 3Q13 Update), Raymond James Ltd. Wireless Infrastructure With smartphone penetration continuing to increase and the number of wireless connected devices rising to 10 billion by 2016, according to Cisco’s Visual Networking Report (2013), the wireless infrastructure will have to grow exponentially as well to help off-load the mobile cellular data demand. Cisco estimates mobile data traffic will increase 7x from 1.6 exabytes in 2013 to 11.2 exabytes through 2017 for a CAGR of 63%, led by data consumption shifting from low data usage voice and email, to high data usage web and video. We believe this exponential growth of data traffic will drive an increasing need for wireless carriers to add not only spectral, but also transmission capacity by installing small cells and DAS. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 9 of 34 Canada Research | Page 10 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Small cells are becoming increasingly popular given permitting and physical space issues associated with macrocells, as well as the cost of these small cells relative to the problems that carriers are trying to solve (small cells cost $6,000-$30,000 per site versus $400,000 per cell site to deploy macro towers). Wireless carriers arrange macro towers in a hexagonal grid of “cells” with each covering a radius of 1 km to 30 km. With population density and data demands growing, we are seeing carriers increasingly deploy small cell and DAS within macrocell networks to target crowded locations. DAS is similar to small cells in that it diverts traffic from the cellular network to a cable connected system backhauled to the network. DAS differs in its complexity as it is better used in multi-carrier, multi-tenant situations with different network technologies (3G, HSPA+, 4G LTE, Wi-Fi, and LAN) all on one system. Exhibit 7: Small Cell or DAS deployment in Macrocell Network Source: Raymond James & Associates Infonetics estimates worldwide small cell units to grow from 950,000 units in 2013 to 3.3 million units in 2016, a 51% CAGR, driven mostly by growth in 4G connectivity. Exhibit 8: 4G Small Cell Deployments will Drive the Small Cell Market *Note: Small Cells includes microcells, picocells and public access femtocells Source: Infonetics Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. DAS on the other hand will benefit the most from indoor buildings (office and residential), as well as from deployments in large venues such as stadiums, shopping malls, and corporate and school campuses. An amazing statistic (from Corning) is that 80% of today’s data consumption is occurring in buildings, and 70%-80% of all wireless sessions exist indoors (Commscope’s December 9, 2013 presentation at RJ&A S4 Conference in New York), despite building materials actually inhibiting wireless signals. Exhibit 9: Illustration of an In-Building DAS Deployment Source: AT&T, Raymond James & Associates DAS are being installed within building infrastructures to provide better in-building signal coverage and data capacity. ABI Research forecasts in-building wireless spending (IBW) will grow at 14% CAGR from 2013-2016 as antenna spending grows from $185 million in 2013 to $273 million in 2016, and outdoor DAS (oDAS) at 11% CAGR, as antenna shipments grow from 24,000 in 2013 to 33,000 in 2016. Exhibit 10: IBW Spending Forecast at 14% CAGR, oDAS at 11% from 2013 to 2016 Source: ABI Research, Cisco, Mobile Experts Another datapoint, American Tower’s DAS installations between 2012 to 2013 have shown significant acceleration, especially in international markets. To date, most of Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 11 of 34 Canada Research | Page 12 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Baylin’s wireless infrastructure sales have come from the US; however, as it grows its carrier approvals and channel partnerships it should be able to capture a piece of the large and growing international market. Exhibit 11: DAS is Accelerating in International Markets Source: American Towers, Raymond James Ltd. We believe Baylin is well positioned to leverage the intellectual property (IP) it has built in mobile antennas over the last 35 years to further enhance its wireless infrastructure product portfolio. AT&T in the fall of 2012 announced its plan to roll out 1,000 DAS and 40,000 small cells to enhance its network by the end of 2015. The DAS opportunity could include systems of a few nodes (antennas) to hundreds. Similarly, Vodafone announced Project Spring in September 2013 a plan to use the funds acquired from the Verizon Wireless buyout to expand its network in Europe and improve performance/capacity. Project Spring involves over 18,000 small cells, 500 enterprise installations, 15,000 modernized sites, 36,000 4G sites, 22,000 3G sites, 36,000 WiFi access points and 11,000 new physical sites by March 2016. It is noteworthy that Baylin lists both AT&T and Vodafone as customers which have tested and approved its wireless infrastructure solutions. To further accelerate its wireless infrastructure progress, Baylin has also been contemplating accretive acquisitions mostly in the wireless infrastructure space to expand geographically, acquire established relationships with wireless carriers, expand its channel partnerships with DAS and small cell distributors, and to extend its small cell offering from just the antenna to a full system solution. Broadband The broadband antenna opportunity is in the home, and also just outside of the home. In the home, the proliferation of internet enabled devices (i.e. computers, mobile devices, media players, game consoles, STBs, TVs, digital cameras, etc.) means better home network equipment is needed to support the data capacity and speed requirements of consumers. For instance, in 2011 AT&T started to add a wireless receiver made by Cisco to sit on top of its STB to allow up to four wireless TVs around the home (implies more antennas). Comcast, in May 2012, also released a wireless STB (PVR) called X1 (made by Pace, a Baylin customer), and will launch the next iteration X2 later this year which will enable instant second screen viewing (i.e. watch content on Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. your TV and continue on your smartphone, tablet, or PC and vice versa) as well as record your shows to the cloud, eliminating the local hard drive. Home networking penetration has to keep pace with the increase in wireless enabled devices, especially in the home. In 2012, Gartner estimated 47% of global households had home networks, an increase from 32% in 2010. Ultimately, the broadband antenna market is forecast to grow from 146 million antennas in 2013 to 282 million antennas in 2017, a CAGR of 18%, according to market research firms (IDC, Gartner, HIS iSuppli, Datamonitor, LEK interviews and analysis, as presented by Baylin). Exhibit 12: Broadband Antenna TAM Expected to Nearly Double from 2013 to 2017 Source: IDC, Gartner, HIS iSuppli, Datamonitor, LEK interviews and analysis, Baylin Technologies Inc. Another area for broadband expansion is also outside the home as carrier Wi-Fi hotspot access points. Carrier Wi-Fi hotspot access points are expected to increase from ~2.4 million in 2013 to ~5.2 million locations in 2016, a 29% CAGR. To reduce subscriber churn, Shaw Communications is ramping up a program to extend broadband access from the home to anywhere in the city called Shaw Go Wi-Fi. Shaw broadband customers sign in to their Shaw accounts from their mobile devices to have access to Shaw’s carrier Wi-Fi from over 20,000 access points across its coverage areas, the data used will count towards their home broadband data plans (which is typically in the magnitude of 50-100x higher than typical cellular data plans). This program is still in its infancy, as Shaw has earmarked $50 million in capital to grow its Wi-Fi coverage over the next three years. Similarly, Comcast has its XFINITY Wi-Fi and CableWiFi alliance hotspots which work identically to Shaw Go Wi-Fi except XFINITY utilizes home Wi-Fi routers to send an additional public access Wi-Fi signal. This makes all Comcast XFINITY customers’ routers hotspots for the network. Since May 2012, CableWiFi has already grown from first implementation to 200,000 hotspots (150,000 in June 2013), a growth rate of ~10,000 access points per month. The trade off with carrier Wi-Fi may be against small cells as it is unrealistic both will succeed; however, Baylin is poised to benefit from either outcome as it caters to both growth opportunities. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 13 of 34 Canada Research | Page 14 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Customer Concentration Mobile As would be expected from being part of one of the largest OEM’s (Samsung) supply chain, Baylin faces high customer concentration risk. In 2013, 79% of the Baylin’s revenues related to Samsung (either directly or through its subcontractor ODMs). There are other instances in the tech world where supply chain partners face high customer concentration. Apple and Foxconn come to mind; Foxconn, as of recent estimates, generates 60% of its revenue from Apple. Where the situation differs is when we look at the reliance of the OEM on the vendor. Apple manufactured ~80%-90% of its iPhone product line with Foxconn, creating a sizable risk from Apple’s perspective, while we estimate Baylin only contributes ~15% of Samsung’s mobile phone antennas. From Samsung’s perspective there is limited vendor risk, it has little reliance on Baylin at current levels, and it typically takes design bids from an exclusive list of four tier 1 antenna manufacturers (EMW, Partron, Ethertronics, and Baylin). We believe there is a low probability that Samsung switches away from Baylin given their long-term relationship and Baylin’s willingness to cater to Samsung by locating its production and design facilities near Samsung’s. Near-term, there is some risk. On January 7, Samsung provided guidance for its F4Q13 that came in below consensus. Revenues of 59 trillion won (+5% y/y) were 2 trillion won below consensus, likely driven by weakness in high end smartphones. Operating profit of 8.3 trillion won was 15% below consensus. Mobile devices account for 2/3 of Samsung’s profits. Samsung also appears to have recently lowered its 2014 smartphone projections from 360 million unit shipments (+20% y/y) to 330 million (+10% y/y). It is possible Samsung’s slow-down comes primarily from developed markets where smartphone penetration is maturing (in which case Baylin would have more exposure as it supplies the Galaxy series). Samsung's official results and sales are expected on the January 23, 2014. Exhibit 13: Samsung Q/Q Growth Tapering as Smartphone Penetration is Maturing Source: Gartner, Raymond James Ltd. Longer term, the primary concern is Samsung’s longevity as the #1 smartphone OEM. Samsung may see disruptive competition in the future which may displace it from its market leading position (i.e. similar to Nokia/BlackBerry), and if that time comes, Baylin will need to have a more diverse revenue base to minimize the effect through other mobile OEMs, broadband, and wireless infrastructure. Historically, Baylin’s track record is impressive as they have shown an uncanny ability to adapt throughout the years by Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. being a significant antenna provider to the #1 phone manufacturer at different points in time (Motorola, Nokia, and now Samsung). Wireless Infrastructure Baylin’s wireless infrastructure business is in its infancy (established in 2010); however, it has already developed customer relationships with tier 1 carriers in the US including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Telstra. Also, its SISO and MIMO products are tested and approved with several tier 1 carriers and enterprise distributors. The importance of carrier approvals cannot be understated, especially as carriers generally make up 80% of the wireless infrastructure market and distributors the remaining 20%. As Baylin’s wireless infrastructure segment matures it will need to build out its channel partnerships to better deliver its solutions to carriers and enterprises (i.e. Commscope has 3,000 channel partners). SpiderCloud Wireless is also a new small cell customer for Baylin. In November at the Telecom.com LTE North American Awards 2013, SpiderCloud Wireless won the Best LTE Radio Access Network (RAN) Product (with Baylin’s antenna inside) with its SpiderCloud Wireless Multi-Access and Scalable Small Cell System for Medium to Large Enterprise Customers. Broadband Baylin has worked with Cisco since 2007. In March 2013, Belkin acquired Cisco’s home networking division, though Baylin continues to have a relationship with Cisco supplying antennas for its small business product access point division. A new relationship is being developed with Belkin to continue supplying antennas for its new Linksys home networking division. Geographic Breakdown Baylin has a global presence in China, South Korea, and soon Vietnam to serve its key customer Samsung; Singapore and Malaysia to serve Motorola; and Canada and the US for its wireless infrastructure, as well as for key broadband customers Cisco and Belkin. In Europe it is headquartered in Israel with a sales office in Sweden to mainly deliver broadband and wireless infrastructure products to its European customers. 93% of Baylin’s 2012 revenue was generated in the Far East, which largely consists of sales to Samsung, while the remainder of sales was in North America at 6% and Israel at 1%. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 15 of 34 Canada Research | Page 16 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Exhibit 14: Baylin’s Offices, R&D and Manufacturing Centers – Vietnam Expected 3Q14 Source: Baylin Technologies Inc. Product Portfolio Mobile Antennas are not a commodity; rather, they are very detailed electronic components which are the critical connection necessary to enable all the primary functionality of wireless voice, data, and radio enabled devices. Mobile antennas are used in feature phones, smartphones, tablets, laptops, cameras, wireless wearables, etc. Baylin manufactures both embedded internal antennas and external antennas using a variety of technologies including metal, metal element + carrier, and flexible PCB. Two-shot molded and laser direct structuring are currently leading the way as the technologies used to manufacture antennas. LDS provides added nimbleness to Baylin as it can easily change from one specification to another. As devices get smaller, Baylin is positioned to provide antennas which are integrated into the case of the mobile and broadband devices. Exhibit 15: Baylin Stays on the Leading Edge with Newer TSMA and LDS Technologies Source: Baylin Technologies Inc. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. Exhibit 16: Examples of External and Internal Antennas Source: Baylin Technologies Inc. Exhibit 17: Examples of Antennas Inside the Case vs. Antennas Integrated into the Case Source: Baylin Technologies Inc. In smartphones, antennas are used in as many as seven functions, including digital voice calling (Global System for Mobile or GSM), global positioning systems (GPS), Wi-Fi data, Bluetooth connectivity, near field communication, 3G cellular data, and 4G LTE/MIMO cellular data. On average, total antenna cost would amount to between $2.50-$3.50 per smartphone or less than 1% of a smartphone’s bill of materials cost. Wireless Infrastructure DAS are being installed within building infrastructures to provide better in-building signal coverage and data capacity. Baylin offers 12 in-building DAS antennas, small cell, and heterogeneous network options through its PEAR product line of SISO and MIMO solutions, five outdoor DAS solutions, and four base station antennas. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 17 of 34 Canada Research | Page 18 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Exhibit 18: Three of Baylin’s Internally Manufactured DAS Products Source: Baylin Technologies Inc. Baylin antennas have up to 47% more data throughput (performance) and up to 90% coverage compared to 45%-60% coverage from its competitors (at 700 MHz and 85 dB). In a benchmarking test in 2012 against three competitors, Baylin’s MIMO DAS antennas generally outperformed. Competitor #1 was the higher quality antenna on the market in 2012, however on average Baylin performed 11% better. Competitor #2 was the most deployed antenna in North America in 2012, however on average Baylin performed 10% better. And competitor #3, Commscope’s Andrew brand, performed on average 85% worse than Baylin’s MIMO technology. Further the benchmark heat tests show Baylin antennas have more consistent radiation patterns enabling better performance in all directions than competitors which tend to have peak performance in a single direction. Exhibit 19: Benchmark Tests Show Baylin’s MIMO Antennas Outperform Comps *Note: Competitor 1 was the higher quality antenna on the market in 2012. Competitor 2 was the most deployed antenna in North America in 2012. Competitor 3 is Commscope. dBi is a measure of antenna performance measuring efficiency of converting electricity into a RF signal Source: Baylin Technologies Inc., Raymond James Ltd. Broadband Broadband connections serve as a bridge between mobile devices and the carrier network (through Wi-Fi routers and access points), an enabler of wireless devices such as set-top boxes and M2M smart home connectivity devices (connected lights, energy control, smart meters), and two-way communications through land mobile radios. Baylin provides unique antenna designs which allow antennas to be enclosed within the case of the product without any loss in connectivity. Many broadband devices contain 2 to 10 antennas for both sending and receiving wireless signals; this opens the antenna opportunity to significant growth. For some perspective, a Linksys router with six antennas retails for $200, while a router with two antennas retails for $50. Baylin is paid ~$1 per antenna or ~3%-4% of the average price of a router; routers with 10 antennas Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. are more prominent in enterprise-grade routers. In 2012, Baylin generated $7.4 million in revenue from Linksys. Exhibit 20: Baylin is in Linksys Routers *Note: Baylin does business as Galtronics Source: Baylin Technologies Inc. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 19 of 34 Canada Research | Page 20 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Competition Baylin is vertically integrated from design to manufacturing and has successfully parlayed its vertical integration advantages into a strong reputation for rapid design/prototyping, high quality and reliable antennas, and importantly time to market (especially for significant product launches like the Galaxy Series). Baylin’s manufacturing facility works at high volumes, producing approximately ~200 million antennas and integrated products per annum. Every year, Baylin develops over 100 new projects which are then moved to mass production. Baylin’s extensive R&D program has so far resulted in 71 patents (25 granted, 46 pending) to protect its innovations. In recent years, Baylin has also been investing in new machines and production lines. Baylin utilizes every leading edge production technique including plastic injection and high speed, high precision metal element stamping tool capabilities, two-shot molding tools, in-mold labeling (IML) forming and cutting tools, and is investing heavily in laser direct structuring technology over the next 5 years for rear case embedded antennas. In the near future, we believe a number of antennas, e.g. 3G, LTE, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi will be increasingly integrated into the rear case for smartphones – which then allows for a thinner, lighter and more efficient smartphone in terms of circuitry design. For instance, according to press reports, Samsung is highly likely to adopt the case with built-in antennas for some models of the Galaxy S5 series scheduled to be released next year. Currently, the main technology for cases with built-in antennas is LDS. When rear cases are made, a special additive is mixed in the resin. When this material comes in contact with laser, oxidation will occur. Laser is used to pattern antennas in the rear case, and the patterns are plated. With rearcase embedded antennas, a single vendor will more likely win all of the antennas embedded in the rear-case due to the added complexity and design involved in molding antennas into the case. This could potentially be a significant share gain opportunity as currently Baylin focuses on winning the main antennas, however as we move to rear case embedded antennas, we believe Baylin will be able to capture a larger portion of the mobile TAM. Mobile competitors include: TE Connectivity, Molex, Ethertronics, Shenzhen Sunway Communications, SkyCross, EMW, Amphenol, Partron, and Pulse Electronics Source: Baylin Technologies Inc. Wireless infrastructure competitors include: Kathrein Antennen Electronics, CSS Antenna, Commscope, CellMax, Ethertronics, AlcatelLucent, Amphenol Antenna Solutions, Corning, TE Connectivity, Comba Telecom Systems, and Axell Wireless Broadband competitors include: Wistron NeWeb, Ethertronics, Amphenol Antenna Solutions, and Laird Technologies Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. Financial Model Highlights IFRS Model Presentation Effective January 1, 2010, the company adopted IFRS accounting standards, which include some differences in financial statement presentation and accounting standards compared to Israeli GAAP accounting standards. Currency Dynamics Weakening of foreign currencies relative to the US dollar adversely affects the US dollar value of sales and earnings. In reaction to weakening non-US currency movements, the company may increase local pricing to offset the currency losses, however if competitive pressures constrain a price increase the company will be adversely affected. Revenue Even though revenue is generated from three business segments, it is largely reported as a single value with breakdowns of the contribution from each of mobile phones, wireless infrastructure, and broadband. As a components vendor it has no recurring revenue stream to stabilize the top-line, which may result in lumpy revenues from quarter to quarter. Seasonality Since revenue is currently highly skewed toward the mobile phone segment, there is a high seasonality for the company related to the product cycles of its OEMs. In the case of Samsung, it typically releases a wide range of feature phones and smartphones throughout the year, however they have historically released their flagship Galaxy S phones in 2Q (April-June). This results in a stronger 1H over 2H. In wireless infrastructure, wireless carriers tend to have higher capital spending in 4Q in meeting budgeted expenditures, while lower capital expenditures in 1Q as new spending budgets slowly ramp. Financial Model Forecast 2013 Forecasts We are modeling $81 million in revenue, representing 18% y/y growth, in-line with the growth of Samsung’s mobile devices (YTD: +17% y/y units growth). Samsung’s Galaxy S4 (Baylin was the lead antenna designer) was off to a strong start earlier in the year but that momentum has started to slow following the iPhone 5s release in September and ahead of the Galaxy S5 next year. Subsequently, we have baked this seasonality into our forecasts with a weaker 4Q13. We model wireless infrastructure at $2.5 million in revenue, up from almost nothing in 2012 ($165k). Broadband is expected to be flat as Linksys transitions from Cisco to Belkin. We forecast gross margin for 2013 to be ~33%, flat versus 2012. Wireless infrastructure has higher margins at ~45% compared to ~35% in the mobile and broadband segments. As wireless infrastructure grows and becomes a larger portion of Baylin’s revenue, we expect gross margin to benefit. Baylin also continues to invest in newer technologies (that comes with higher ASPs and higher margins such as LDS) which helps offset some pricing pressure. As the revenue base grows, we expect the company to gain scale Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 21 of 34 Canada Research | Page 22 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. advantages in its operating expenses. We forecast EBITDA of $12 million (+39% y/y) and EPS of $0.36. 2014 Forecasts We are modeling $84 million in revenue, representing just 3% y/y growth (Mobile: flat y/y). Samsung appears to have recently lowered its 2014 smartphone shipment projections materially from 360 million unit shipments (+20% y/y) to 330 million (+10% y/y). It is possible Samsung’s slowdown comes primarily from developed markets where smartphone penetration is maturing (in which case Baylin would have more exposure as it supplies the Galaxy series). As a result, we have been more conservative and forecast 0% growth for Baylin mobile segment. There is room for upside later on this year depending on when contribution from Vietnam kicks in (currently C4Q14 expected). 1Q14 should also be weaker than normal given the Chinese New Year and ahead of the Galaxy S5 launch. We model wireless infrastructure growing 80% y/y to $4.5 million in revenue. Broadband is expected to grow incrementally, especially as Baylin continues to bid for additional business with Belkin. We forecast gross margin for 2014 to be under pressure (~31.5% verus 33% in 2013) as Samsung’s slowdown squeezes the entire supply chain. Operating expenses should increase given this is the first full year of Baylin as a public company and as it expands in Vietnam. As a result, we forecast EBITDA of $10 million and EPS of $0.36 (flat y/y). 2015 Forecasts With a full year contribution from Vietnam, we forecast a reacceleration in growth in 2015 with $99 million in revenues (+19% y/y). We forecast gross margins to inch up slightly (higher margins from infrastructure and Vietnam, offset by ongoing pricing pressure on the smartphone antenna business). We forecast EBITDA of $15 million (+50% y/y) and EPS of $0.58 (+61% y/y). Valuation & Recommendation Baylin Technologies completed its IPO on November 27 2013, offering 6,253,125 common shares at C$8.00 per share. Our model assumes IPO net proceeds of $44 million recorded in 4Q13. Our $9.00 target is based on 8.7x 2015E EBITDA or 15x 2015E EPS, in-line with its peers’ current year average trading multiples (8.9x EBITDA and 14.5x EPS). Despite the expected slowdown in its Samsung’s business, we still forecast Baylin to have a higher than average EPS CAGR of +26% over the next two years (vs. peers of +10%), which should offset its low liquidity and high customer concentration. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. Canada Research | Page 23 of 34 Exhibit 21: Comparable Companies Antenna Comparables A ll values in C$ mlns, except per share data o r o therwise stated. Company TE Connectivity Partron Amphenol Laird Anaren CommScope EMW Pulse Electronics Shenzhen Sunway Price 16-Jan-14 Mkt. Cap. (C$ mlns) US$ 55.55 KRW 14,250 US$ 91.87 £3.16 US$ 27.94 US$ 18.68 KRW 3,240 US$ 3.29 CNY 20.13 $25,494 $757 $16,242 $1,386 $369 $2,971 $45 $26 $498 Group Average (Excl. High/Low) Baylin Technologies C$ 7.20 *Assumes $44mln net proceeds $135 EV/Sales EV/EBITDA C13E C14E C15E C13E C14E C15E 1.9 1.8 1.7 10.1 9.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 6.1 5.3 3.4 3.2 3.0 15.1 13.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 11.4 10.4 1.8 1.7 n.m. 8.6 7.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 8.1 8.0 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 8.5 5.0 12.7 9.4 n.m. 7.6 n.m. n.m. n.m. P/E C13E C14E C15E Growth (13-15E) Rev. EBITDA EPS 17.3 7.5 24.2 17.8 20.2 11.7 n.m. n.m. n.m. 5% 7% 7% 5% n.m. 3% n.m. n.m. n.m. 9% 11% 9% 10% n.m. 4% n.m. n.m. n.m. 14% 2% 11% 17% n.m. 6% n.m. n.m. n.m. 19% 12% 22% 14% 18% 19% 14% 4% (23%) 33% 19% 31% 39% 37% 34% 29% 23% 15% 14.6 6.8 21.9 15.6 16.0 11.9 n.m. n.m. n.m. 13.2 7.1 19.5 13.0 n.m. 10.3 n.m. n.m. n.m. EBITDA% GM% TTM TTM 1.9 1.7 1.7 9.9 8.9 8.6 16.4 14.5 12.6 6% 8% 10% 11% 29% 1.2 1.1 1.0 8.0 9.6 6.4 19.8 20.1 12.5 11% 12% 26% 15% 33% EV/Sales EV/EBITDA C13E C14E C15E C13E C14E C15E P/E C13E C14E C15E Growth (13E-15E) Rev. EBITDA EPS 13.8 10.9 15.6 23.5 n.m. 24.2 12.6 19.2 Other RF and Component Supplier Comparables A ll values in C$ mlns, except per share data o r o therwise stated. Company Price 16-Jan-14 Mkt. Cap. (C$ mlns) RF Micro Devices Broadcom Semtech Analog Devices TriQuint Semi JDS Uniphase Skyworks Avago Tech US$ 4.84 US$ 29.31 US$ 24.14 US$ 49.82 US$ 8.52 US$ 12.12 US$ 28.62 US$ 55.43 $1,521 $18,512 $1,817 $17,269 $1,526 $3,173 $5,951 $15,324 Group Average (Excl. High/Low) Baylin Technologies C$ 7.20 $135 1.1 2.0 2.9 4.5 1.5 1.4 2.7 5.0 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.4 1.3 1.3 2.4 4.3 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.1 1.3 1.2 2.2 3.9 8.2 5.8 5.0 8.7 9.1 10.5 9.3 9.7 8.5 13.2 12.3 10.8 11.5 7.3 n.m. 11.4 8.5 7.1 9.0 7.8 7.0 14.1 11.7 11.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 7.9 6.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 8.0 9.6 9.0 11.7 15.9 21.1 17.9 16.5 10.9 16.2 7.2 10.8 12.1 18.5 15.2 13.1 10.0 13.7 9% 5% 4% 5% 9% 7% 10% 13% 29% (9%) 5% 11% n.m. 27% 14% 13% 39% 1% 13% 13% 206% 36% 12% 18% 10% 16% 26% 34% 9% 9% 25% 30% 33% 50% 66% 64% 30% 46% 43% 50% 6.3 12.1 11.1 9.4 6% 10% 16% 15% 36% 6.4 19.8 20.1 12.5 11% 12% 26% 15% 33% Note: Estimates for BYL are from Raymond James Ltd., all other estimates are consensus from Capital IQ Source: Company Reports, Capital IQ, Raymond James Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 EBITDA% GM% TTM TTM Canada Research | Page 24 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Appendix: Financial Statements Baylin Technologies Income Statement Revenues ('000s) Cost of revenues Gross profit % Gross Margin Operating expenses: Selling and marketing expenses Research and development expenses General and administrative expenses Other expenses (income), net EBIT: Operating income (loss) Finance income Finance expense EBT: Income (loss) before income taxes Income taxes Income (loss) from continuing operations Translations adjustments Loss from discontinued operations, net Net income (loss) F2010 44,266 27,289 16,977 38.4% F2011 50,297 30,121 20,176 40.1% F2012 68,709 45,785 22,924 33.4% F1Q13 17,695 11,881 5,814 32.9% F2Q13 28,158 17,665 10,493 37.3% F3Q13 19,954 14,188 5,766 28.9% F4Q13E 15,270 10,344 4,926 32.3% F2013E 81,077 54,078 26,999 33.3% F2014E 83,509 57,204 26,305 31.5% F2015E 99,376 67,277 32,098 32.3% 2,850 7,485 7,039 586 17,960 (983) 230 (1,521) (2,274) 198 (2,472) 2,550 7,117 6,936 (377) 16,226 3,950 373 (1,230) 3,093 475 2,618 2,644 6,588 7,320 (90) 16,462 6,462 44 (1,436) 5,070 557 4,513 (3,586) (6,058) (5,179) (2,561) (3,137) 1,376 507 1,660 1,764 28 3,959 1,855 36 (299) 1,592 240 1,352 0 0 1,352 731 1,865 2,119 115 4,830 5,663 18 (322) 5,359 1,038 4,321 0 0 4,321 682 1,774 1,813 (83) 4,186 1,580 158 (584) 1,154 256 898 134 0 1,032 796 1,917 2,006 (60) 4,659 266 138 (300) 104 0 104 0 0 104 2,716 7,216 7,702 0 17,634 9,364 350 (1,505) 8,209 1,534 6,675 134 0 6,809 3,173 7,516 8,351 0 19,040 7,265 350 0 7,615 914 6,701 0 0 6,701 4,074 7,155 8,944 0 20,173 11,925 350 0 12,275 1,473 10,802 0 0 10,802 0.11 0.11 0.35 0.06 0.01 0.36 0.36 0.58 12475 12475 12475 12475 12475 12475 18728 18728 18728 18728 18728 18728 18728 18728 18728 18728 864 598 EPS Basic shares (000's) Diluted shares (000's) EBITDA Depreciation & Amortization 1,350 2,333 5,680 1,730 8,623 2,161 2,358 503 6,243 580 2,499 919 11,964 2,600 9,965 2,700 14,925 3,000 F2010 F2011 F2012 F1Q13 F2Q13 F3Q13 F4Q13E F2013E F2014E F2015E Margin Analysis Gross Margin % 38% 40% 33% 33% 37% 34% 32% 33% 32% 32% Selling and marketing expenses Research and development expenses General and administrative expenses Other expenses (income), net Finance income Finance expense 6% 17% 16% 1% 1% -3% 5% 14% 14% -1% 1% -2% 3.8% 9.6% 10.7% -0.1% 0.1% -2.1% 2.9% 9.4% 10.0% 0.2% 0.2% -1.7% 2.6% 6.6% 7.5% 0.4% 0.1% -1.1% 3.4% 8.9% 9.1% -0.4% 0.8% -2.9% 5.2% 12.6% 13.1% -0.4% 0.9% -2.0% 3.4% 8.9% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% 3.8% 9.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 7.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Income taxes EBITDA Margin % Depreciation & Amortization 9% 3% 5.3% -15% 11% 3.4% -11% 13% 3.1% -15% 13% 2.8% -19% 22% 2.1% 15% 13% 4.6% 0% 6% 3.9% 15% 14.8% 3.0% 12% 11.9% 2.5% 12% 15.0% 2.5% Source: Baylin Technologies Inc., Raymond James Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. Canada Research | Page 25 of 34 Baylin Technologies Balance Sheet Assets ('000s) Cash and cash equivalents Trade receivables, net + other A/R Loan to related party Inventories Property, plant and equipment Lease deposits Intangible asset Loans to related party Deferred taxes Other non-current assets Total Assets F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013E F2014E F2015E 6,357 6,118 0 3,071 15,879 507 900 385 121 215 33,553 3,302 12,773 0 4,641 16,570 442 675 365 274 46 39,088 6,997 15,565 150 5,195 13,680 563 0 1,521 530 0 44,201 51,217 18,881 150 6,075 17,566 563 0 0 625.4 0 95,077 26,325 19,447 150 7,836 31,536 563 0 0 644 0 86,502 35,818 23,142 150 9,216 30,524 563 0 0 767 0 100,179 Liabilities & Equity Debt (Credit & Loans from banks, shareholders) Trade payables + other A/P Income tax payable Deferred taxes Other long term-liabilities Total Liabilities Total Equity 18,635 6,183 1,196 83 2,887 28,984 4,569 15,411 11,367 553 200 3,272 30,803 8,285 16,580 13,986 646 200 3,227 34,639 9,562 14,727 16,298 715 236 3,227 35,203 59,874 0 0 15,672 18,432 784 853 243.08 289.2652 3,227 3,227 19,926 22,801 66,576 77,378 Total Liabilities and Equity 33,553 39,088 44,201 95,077 86,502 100,179 F2010 (2,472) 2,333 1,291 0 (85) (1,236) 161 (8) (1,251) 1,897 (3,156) F2011 2,618 1,730 857 (181) (593) (1,164) 249 3,516 (1,194) 1,352 970 F2012 4,513 2,161 1,392 0 (163) (1,160) (19) 6,724 (1,145) 1,498 4,081 F2013E 6,675 2,600 1,392 0 (163) (1,160) (59) 9,285 (1,884) 6,486 915 F2014E 6,701 2,700 1,392 0 (163) (1,160) (12) 9,459 (2,953) 16,670 (10,165) F2015E 10,802 3,000 1,392 0 (163) (1,160) (76) 13,795 (2,315) 1,988 9,492 4,300 (479) 7,386 (3,430) 490 1,841 43,637 (1,853) (14,727) 271 936 429 5,355 185 6,597 1,521 44,220 0 (24,892) Baylin Technologies Cash flow Summary Net Income ('000s) + Depreciation and amortization + Finance expense, net + Gain from sale of property, plant and equipment + Income taxes & Taxes Paid + Interest received (paid) +/- Other Operating Cash Flow + Change in W/C - Capex Free Cash Flow - Acquisitions (Sales) - Common Dividends + Equity Raised + Debt Increase (Decr) + Prefs increase +/- Other Change in Cash from continued operations Source: Baylin Technologies Inc., Raymond James Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 0 9,492 Canada Research | Page 26 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Appendix: Management & Board of Directors Management Name Ephraim Ulmer Yuval Katzir Matti Martiskainen Ben Bar Shaul Montgomery Title Summary President, CEO, and Director Ulmer joined Baylin in 1993 and has spent his entire 20 year career at the company. Ulmer's proficiency is in both engineering and business management, with a degree in business management from the University of Derby (UK) and a degree in mechanical engineering from Handasaim School (Israel). From 2005 to 2012, he was based in China as the GM of Galtronics China and later President of Galtronics Asia where he led the growth of Baylin's key business geography. Ulmer has been the President and CEO of Baylin since August 2010. Interim CFO & Controller Katzir joined Baylin in 2007 as the Company’s Corporate Financial Controller. Prior to this, Katzir served three years as a CFO at an Israeli company where he specialized in a wide variety of governmental projects. Katzir was engaged in an accounting practice with PWC Israel from 2002 to 2005 where he advised publicly-listed companies in Israel and the United States and gained experience with IFRS. Katzir became an Israeli Certified Public Accountant in 2004. CTO Martiskainen joined Baylin in 1986. Martiskainen has played a lead engineering role for Baylin, establishing a design center in Korea and directly contributing to ~40 patents. Martiskainen is conducting research to increase the data capacity and scale frequencies of wide band antennas. Martiskainen holds a Bachelor of Arts in radio frequency engineering from the University of Helsingin Teknillinen Opisto. EVP Sales & Marketing Bar joined Baylin in April 2013 bringing international and cultural business knowledge in mid and high tech industries. Prior to coming to Baylin, Bar was in senior sales and marketing positions at Amida a global advanced water systems company, Tandra Pro in Hong Kong and Orbit FR in Israel, an antenna solutions provider for aerospace, telecom and the automotive industry. Montgomery joined Baylin's subsidiary Galtronics China in 2011, bringing 25 General Manager - years of senior management experience for the manufacturing industry, large Galtronics China scale projects and international sales management. Montgomery is a key to ensuring Baylin's largest factory in China is functioning optimally. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. Directors Name Jeffrey Royer Randy Dewey Stockwell Day Douglas Jones Barry Reiter Don Simmonds Harold Wolkin Canada Research | Page 27 of 34 Title Summary Chairman Royer is by far the largest shareholder of Baylin with over 50% of shares. Royer has been a Director of Shaw Communications since 1995, as well he serves on the Boards of several private companies and not-for-profit organizations. Vice Chairman Dewey is the President of Navistone Financial, a management consulting firm. Dewey sits on the Board of Jameson Bank, Galtronics China, SymHome, RCI Capital, WesternOne Inc, and Medimor. Previously he was the CEO of SuomiTV Finland, a media and broadcast corporation. Director As a Director, Day is a strategic advisor and consultant. Having served on the provincial and federal levels of the Canadian government for over 25 years, he brings political relationships with Asian governments with him. Day also serves on the Boards of Telus Corp which brings a relationship with the wireless carrier to the forefront. Director Jones brings four decades of communications industry experience, in Canada, the United States and Europe, in RF network development, sales and marketing, acquisitions, product development, and manufacturing. Jones has 33 years of experience with Motorola in all aspects of the business including Canadian Land Mobile operations, and ten years with Sinclair Technologies, a manufacturer of antennas and RF components, as President and CEO. Jones has provided consulting and advisory services to communications industry since 2003. Director Reiter is a lawyer by profession, bringing experience in corporate governance, finanace and development. His current Board roles include NexgenRx Inc., HKMB HUB International (Industry Advisory Council) and the Executive Committee of Ontario Chapter of Institute of Corporate Directors, and a number of former Board roles. These positions have provided Mr. Reiter with hands-on experience with issues ranging from Board composition, development, evaluation, succession, protection and compensation, to major corporate transactions, and friendly and hostile takeover bids and proxy contests. Director Simmonds is the Chairman and CEO of CTS, a CRTC regulated Canadian television broadcaster. He also founded the private equity company which incubated Clearnet Communications (sold to Telus in 2001). Simmonds was inducted into the Canadian Telecommunications Hall of Fame which speaks volumes to the experience and expertise he brings to Baylin. Director Wolkin brings siginficant capital markets experience and relationships to Baylin having worked in equity research and investment banking at BMO and Dundee for over 30 years. As well, Wolkin formerly served as the President of the CFA society of Toronto. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 28 of 34 Company Citations Company Name Alcatel-Lucent American Tower Amphenol Corp. Analog Devices, Inc. Anaren, Inc. Apple Inc. AT&T Inc. Avago Technologies Ltd. Bank of Montreal BlackBerry Broadcom Corporation Cisco Systems Comcast Corp. CommScope Holding Company, Inc. Corning Inc. Dundee Corp. JDS Uniphase Kyocera Corp. Molex, Inc. Motorola Solutions, Inc. NexgenRx Inc. Nokia Pulse Electronics Corp. QUALCOMM, Inc. RF Micro Devices Samsung Electronics Semtech Corporation Shaw Communications Skyworks Solutions TE Connectivity Ltd. Telstra Corp. Ltd. TELUS Corp. TriQuint Semiconductor, Inc. Verizon Communications Vodafone WesternOne Inc. Baylin Technologies Inc. Ticker ALU AMT APH ADI ANEN AAPL T AVGO BMO BBRY BRCM CSCO CMCSA COMM GLW DC.A JDSU KYO MOLX MSI NXG.V NOK PULS QCOM RFMD SSNHY SMTC SJR SWKS TEL TLS TU TQNT VZ VOD Exchange NYSE NYSE NYSE NASDAQ NASDAQ NASDAQ NYSE NASDAQ NYSE NASDAQ NASDAQ NASDAQ NASDAQ NASDAQ NYSE TSX NASDAQ NYSE NASDAQ NYSE TSXV NYSE NYSE NASDAQ NASDAQ Currency US$ US$ Closing Price 4.20 83.27 US$ 49.82 US$ US$ 554.25 33.96 US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ 8.56 29.31 22.78 53.54 18.68 US$ 12.12 US$ 65.81 US$ 7.94 US$ US$ 74.72 4.84 NASDAQ NYSE NASDAQ NYSE NYSE NYSE NASDAQ NYSE LSE US$ 24.14 US$ 28.62 US$ US$ US$ p 34.31 8.52 48.53 237.20 RJ Rating 3 1 NC 1 NC 1 3 NC NC 3 3 2 1 2 NC NC 3 NC NC 3 NC 4 NC 3 1 NC 2 NC 1 NC NC 3 3 2 2 WEQ TSX C$ 7.62 2 RJ Entity RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ LTD. RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ & Associates RJ Euro Equities SAS RJ LTD. Notes: Prices are as of the most recent close on the indicated exchange and may not be in US$. See Disclosure section for rating definitions. Stocks that do not trade on a U.S. national exchange may not be registered for sale in all U.S. states. NC=not covered. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. Canada Research | Page 29 of 34 IMPORTANT INVESTOR DISCLOSURES Raymond James & Associates (RJA) is a FINRA member firm and is responsible for the preparation and distribution of research created in the United States. Raymond James & Associates is located at The Raymond James Financial Center, 880 Carillon Parkway, St. Petersburg, FL 33716, (727) 567-1000. 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(Canada) definitions: Strong Buy (SB1) The stock is expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 15% and outperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next six months. Outperform (MO2) The stock is expected to appreciate and outperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next twelve months. Market Perform (MP3) The stock is expected to perform generally in line with the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next twelve months and is potentially a source of funds for more highly Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 30 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. rated securities. Underperform (MU4) The stock is expected to underperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index or its sector over the next six to twelve months and should be sold. Raymond James & Associates (U.S.) definitions: Strong Buy (SB1) Expected to appreciate, produce a total return of at least 15%, and outperform the S&P 500 over the next six to 12 months. For higher yielding and more conservative equities, such as REITs and certain MLPs, a total return of at least 15% is expected to be realized over the next 12 months. Outperform (MO2) Expected to appreciate and outperform the S&P 500 over the next 12-18 months. For higher yielding and more conservative equities, such as REITs and certain MLPs, an Outperform rating is used for securities where we are comfortable with the relative safety of the dividend and expect a total return modestly exceeding the dividend yield over the next 12-18 months. Market Perform (MP3) Expected to perform generally in line with the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Underperform (MU4) Expected to underperform the S&P 500 or its sector over the next six to 12 months and should be sold. Suspended (S) The rating and price target have been suspended temporarily. This action may be due to market events that made coverage impracticable, or to comply with applicable regulations or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Raymond James may be providing investment banking services to the company. The previous rating and price target are no longer in effect for this security and should not be relied upon. Raymond James Latin American rating definitions: Strong Buy (SB1) Expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 25.0% over the next twelve months. Outperform (MO2) Expected to appreciate and produce a total return of between 15.0% and 25.0% over the next twelve months. Market Perform (MP3) Expected to perform in line with the underlying country index. Underperform (MU4) Expected to underperform the underlying country index. Suspended (S) The rating and price target have been suspended temporarily. This action may be due to market events that made coverage impracticable, or to comply with applicable regulations or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Raymond James may be providing investment banking services to the company. The previous rating and price target are no longer in effect for this security and should not be relied upon. Raymond James Euro Equities, SAS rating definitions: Strong Buy (1) Expected to appreciate, produce a total return of at least 15%, and outperform the Stoxx 600 over the next 6 to 12 months. Outperform (2) Expected to appreciate and outperform the Stoxx 600 over the next 12 months. Market Perform (3) Expected to perform generally in line with the Stoxx 600 over the next 12 months. Underperform (4) Expected to underperform the Stoxx 600 or its sector over the next 6 to 12 months. Suspended (S) The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily. This action may be due to market events that made coverage impracticable, or to comply with applicable regulations or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Raymond James may be providing investment banking services to the company. The previous rating and target price are no longer in effect for this security and should not be relied upon. In transacting in any security, investors should be aware that other securities in the Raymond James research coverage universe might carry a higher or lower rating. Investors should feel free to contact their Financial Advisor to discuss the merits of other available investments. Suitability Categories (SR): Total Return (TR) Lower risk equities possessing dividend yields above that of the S&P 500 and greater stability of principal. Growth (G) Low to average risk equities with sound financials, more consistent earnings growth, at least a small dividend, and the potential for long-term price appreciation. Aggressive Growth (AG) Medium or higher risk equities of companies in fast growing and competitive industries, with less predictable earnings and acceptable, but possibly more leveraged balance sheets. High Risk (HR) Companies with less predictable earnings (or losses), rapidly changing market dynamics, financial and competitive issues, higher price volatility (beta), and risk of principal. Venture Risk (VR) Companies with a short or unprofitable operating history, limited or less predictable revenues, very high risk associated with success, and a substantial risk of principal. RATING DISTRIBUTIONS Coverage Universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Distribution RJL RJA RJ LatAm RJEE RJL RJA RJ LatAm RJEE Strong Buy and Outperform (Buy) 63% 50% 50% 44% 40% 23% 0% 0% Market Perform (Hold) 36% 44% 50% 37% 22% 10% 0% 0% Underperform (Sell) 1% 6% 0% 19% 33% 2% 0% 0% RAYMOND JAMES RELATIONSHIP DISCLOSURES Raymond James Ltd. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from all companies under research coverage within the next three months. Company Name Disclosure Baylin Technologies Inc. Raymond James Ltd - the analyst and/or associate has viewed the material operations of Baylin Technologies Inc. Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months with respect to Baylin Technologies Inc. Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Baylin Technologies Inc. Company Name Canada Research | Page 31 of 34 Disclosure to Baylin Technologies Inc. Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months with respect to Baylin Technologies Inc. Raymond James Ltd. makes a market in the securities of Baylin Technologies Inc. STOCK CHARTS, TARGET PRICES, AND VALUATION METHODOLOGIES Valuation Methodology: The Raymond James methodology for assigning ratings and target prices includes a number of qualitative and quantitative factors including an assessment of industry size, structure, business trends and overall attractiveness; management effectiveness; competition; visibility; financial condition, and expected total return, among other factors. These factors are subject to change depending on overall economic conditions or industry- or company-specific occurrences. Target Prices: The information below indicates our target price and rating changes for BYL stock over the past three years. Valuation Methodology: We value Baylin Technologies on a EV/EBITDA and P/E multiple basis relative to peers. RISK FACTORS General Risk Factors: Following are some general risk factors that pertain to the projected target prices included on Raymond James research: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product / service pricing could change and adversely impact expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or market shares or new product expectations could change investor attitudes toward the sector or this stock; (3) Unforeseen developments with respect to the management, financial condition or accounting policies or practices could alter the prospective valuation. Technology & Communications - IT Hardware Companies in the Communication Technology sector face intense global competition, component supply issues, rapid technological change, patent infringement litigation, labour strife and macroeconomic pressures effecting demand. Risks - Baylin Technologies Inc. Customer concentration risk. As would be expected from being part of one of the largest Original Equipment Manufacturer’s or OEM’s (Samsung) supply chain, Baylin faces high customer concentration risk. If Samsung slows down from developed markets where smartphone penetration is maturing, Baylin would have more exposure as it supplies the Galaxy series. Margin risk. Related to Baylin’s customer concentration risk is pricing pressure and margin pressure risk. Given pressure on Samsung’s operating profits, it is possible we see Samsung seek more price concessions from its supply chain. OEM internalization of antenna design and/or production. If Samsung or other key customers internalize antenna design and/or production through the acquisition of an antenna design competitor or through internal development, there is a risk to Baylin’s revenues. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 32 of 34 Baylin Technologies Inc. Macroeconomic risk. Baylin’s largest operating segment is mobile phone antennas, as these are linked to the end consumer it is highly correlated to global macro-economic health. Illiquidity risk. Stock volatility due to illiquidity. Baylin’s post IPO market capitalization is under $200 million market capitalization and as such there is limited liquidity in the stock. DAS adoption risk. Baylin has suggested it expects DAS to be the future of its revenue generation. The proliferation of DAS is becoming more apparent as telecommunications carriers are looking to improve services to large buildings with inherently poor wireless service. If the adoption of DAS does not materialize as expected due to competing technology or currently non-existent innovations, this business segment may not grow as fast as expected. Managing fast growth. Baylin is a small technology company with growth accelerating rapidly. Baylin will be prone to the challenges of forecasting its results, defending itself from competitive threats and managing its growth to remain profitable as it looks to meet customer volume demands. Additional Risk and Disclosure information, as well as more information on the Raymond James rating system and suitability categories, is available for Raymond James at rjcapitalmarkets.com/Disclosures/index and for Raymond James Limited at www.raymondjames.ca/researchdisclosures. INTERNATIONAL DISCLOSURES FOR CLIENTS IN THE UNITED STATES: Any foreign securities discussed in this report are generally not eligible for sale in the U.S. unless they are listed on a U.S. exchange. 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Additional information is available upon request. This document may not be reprinted without permission. RJL is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. ©2014 Raymond James Ltd. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 34 of 34 EQUITY RESEARCH HEAD OF EQUITY RESEARCH DARYL SWETLISHOFF, CFA Baylin Technologies Inc. RAYMOND JAMES LTD. 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