Worldwide energy crisis: energy trends in Brazil

INVITED LECTURES
REVISTA MEXICANA DE FÍSICA S 56 (2) 34–39
JUNIO 2010
Worldwide energy crisis: energy trends in Brazil
A.S. Schlachter
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and American Physical Society,
Berkeley CA 94720 USA,
e-mail: [email protected]
Recibido el 14 de julio de 2008; aceptado el 23 de octubre de 2008
A world-wide energy crisis is threatening our energy security, and economy, and the well-being of the planet. This crisis is evident in
every country of the world. Brazil is adapting primarily through the supply side: oil, hydroelectric power, and ethanol from sugar cane. It
is necessary to adapt to a new world of energy security and global climate change. The sustainable energy challenge requires innovative
solutions and new technologies, as well as greatly increased energy efficiency.
Keywords: Energy; Brazil.
Una crisis energética mundial amenaza a nuestra seguridad de energı́a, economı́a, y el bienestar del planeta. Esta crisis es evidente en cada
paı́s del mundo. Brasil se adapta principalmente por el lado de suministro: aceite, potencia hidroeléctrica, y etanol de caña de azúcar.
Es necesario adaptarse a un nuevo mundo de seguridad de energı́a y el cambio de clima global. El desafı́o de energı́a sostenible requiere
soluciones innovadoras y nuevas tecnologı́as, ası́ como la eficacia de energı́a enormemente aumentada.
Descriptores: Energı́a; Brasil.
PACS: 42.60.Lh; 89.30.-g; 89.60.k
1. Introduction
Our dependence of fossil fuels to provide energy has significant consequences for citizens of the world. The price of
fossil fuels is presently rising very quickly (US$140 per barrel of oil, June 2008), which is likely to damage the economy
of many countries; the outflow of money to countries which
have oil and whose regimes are not necessarily friend is significant; disruption of the oil supply could cause world-wide
chaos; and the ongoing increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is believed to be responsible for the threat of global
climate change.
Brazil has very significant supplies of petroleum, thanks
in part to recently discovered oil fields. Brazil also has
considerable hydroelectric capacity for electricity generation;
and finally Brazil has a long history of production of ethanol
from sugar cane for transportation. However, the world-wide
crisis is responsible in some measure for ongoing destruction
of the Amazon rain forest. The solution to the energy crisis
is both a vigorous emphasis on renewable supplies of energy
and reduction of energy consumption by greater efficient in
the end-use of energy.
America is the greatest consumer of energy: less than 5%
of the world’s population consuming 25% of the world’s energy. China contributes more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than any other country. It will be necessary for America to considerably reduce its per capita energy consumption,
necessary for China, India, and other Asian countries with
growing economies to produce energy in a more clean fashion, and necessary for every citizen of the planet to follow a
path to more wise use of energy.
Brazil has a more favorable position regarding energy
than many other developing countries, thanks to oil, hydro-
electricity, and relatively low per-capita energy consumption
at present. However, it will be essential for Brazil, and for all
developing countries, to not follow the poor example of the
United States, to develop sustainable sources of energy, and
to utilize energy efficiently.
2.
Drivers for the energy crisis
There are several major areas of concern (“drivers”) for the
present energy crisis: growth in demand, challenges to energy supplies, security of our energy supply in some cases,
and the environmental impacts of energy utilization. Each of
these areas overlaps technology (where we as scientists can
make significant contributions) and policy (where we as citizens have a voice). This is shown schematically in Fig. 1
(adapted from Steve Koonin).
F IGURE 1.
Koonin).
Drivers for the energy crisis (adapted from Steve
WORLDWIDE ENERGY CRISIS: ENERGY TRENDS IN BRAZIL
35
F IGURE 3. Primary sources of energy world-wide.
F IGURE 2. Energy demand and per-capita GDP (Gross Domestic
Product).
Each of these topics will be discussed, first from a global
perspective, then from the perspective of Brazil.
Demand growth: The most critical factor for world-wide
increase of energy consumption is the empirical relationship of per-capita energy use with per-capita GDP. Figure 2
shows that developed countries, and especially the United
States, have much greater per-capita energy consumption
than developing countries such as Brazil. As GDP continues
to increase, especially in countries with rapidly developing
economies like China and India, we can expect ongoing increases in per-capita energy consumption, creating stress on
energy supplies worldwide.
A second important factor in the increase of energy consumption is a growing world population. Predictions are that
the world population will grow from 6.3 billion people at
present to 8.9 billion by 2050. These additional three billion people will all become consumers of energy, thus further
increasing energy demand.
Fossil fuels (oil, coal, and natural gas) account for more
than 80% of the primary energy used worldwide (Fig. 3).
Supplies of oil and natural gas are limited, coal is highly polluting, and all contribute to global climate change.
Supply challenges: The world has significant resources of
fossil fuel. However, the geographical distribution is highly
non-uniform; most of the consumption of oil, for example,
is in developed countries, while much of the supply is in the
Middle East. There is considerable demand for oil, which
results in geopolitical tension, a vast transfer of wealth, and
even war in some cases. Coal is more widely distributed, as
are renewables; nonetheless the distribution is uneven and the
resulting tensions are not healthy for a stable world.
F IGURE 4. Projected energy demand.
There are many sources of energy available beyond fossil
fuel. The sources are:
• the sun: solar radiation, solar energy stored as fossil
fuel, wind, hydroelectric, and waves
• nuclear energy (both fission and fusion)
• geothermal energy (leftover from the formation of the
earth or generated by decay of radioisotopes)
• tides (caused by the gravitational attraction of the
moon and sun).
Although we shall not explore these topics in detail here,
all deserve attention, especially renewable sources, the use
of which will be essential for a sustainable energy future.
Note that every source of energy also has a price. Harnessing
wind power and solar energy are not generally cost effective at present, nuclear energy produces long-lived radioactive waste, combustion of coal releases copious amounts of
radioactivity, mercury, and other toxic substances, and so on.
We will discuss the effect of combustion of fossil fuels when
discussing environmental impact.
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A.S. SCHLACHTER
Solar energy deserves particular attention because the sun
is the source of most energy on earth, either directly (solar, wind etc) or through fossil fuels. In fact, more energy
from sunlight hits the earth in an hour (4.3×1020 J) than all
the energy consumed on the planet in a year (4.1×1020 J)
[=13 TW]. At the present time, solar electricity provides less
than 0.1% of the world’s electricity, and biomass (primarily wood burned in third-world countries) provides less than
1.5% of the world’s energy.
Security of our energy supply. Our energy security is
threatened by global events and by the eventual depletion of
fossil fuels, especially depletion of petroleum. The present
political unrest in Iraq and the Middle East, coupled with potential unrest in Iran, could well threaten the oil supply to
the United States and to other developed countries. Part of
the oil supply also comes from troubled areas, such as Nigeria and Venezuela. The supply of oil to developed countries
could easily be disrupted by political action (e.g. boycott,
embargo) or by hostile action (military or terrorist activities).
America’s reliance on imported oil, especially the need for
liquid fuel for transportation, leaves us vulnerable to serious
disruption and the economic chaos which would result from
disruption of our oil supply.
A second threat to our supply of fossil fuels is depletion.
It is widely believed that world-wide oil production will peak
in a generation (around 2040) and will decline thereafter. Although the supplies of natural gas and coal are more extensive, eventually they will be depleted.
Environmental impact. The correlation of increasing
CO2 concentrations since the beginning of the industrial revolution with increasing temperatures is widely taken as evidence for an anthropogenic cause of global climate change,
which threatens our lives on earth as we know them today.
The widely accepted viewpoint is that we must reduce
combustion of fossil fuels to stabilize the concentration of
CO2 in the atmosphere. This has been very widely discussed,
and will not be further discussed here.
A second environmental issue concerning combustion of
fossil fuels is the production of smog, related to oxides of
sulfur and nitrogen, with their accompanying risks to human
health. We must be able to breathe clean air. Furthermore,
combustion of coal in particular puts large quantities of both
radioisotopes and mercury, along with other heavy metals,
into the atmosphere, with the obvious hazards to health.
There is yet another environmental aspect to energy production, which is damage to the ecosystem. Every strip mine,
every oil spill, every leak of radioactive waste, every wind
farm which despoils the landscape and kills birds and bats,
and every other insult to our environment threatens life as we
know it on our planet.
Figure 7 shows greenhouse gas emissions by source. Although two-thirds of the emissions come from energy production, 35% are from non-energy sources, primarily agriculture.
Figure 8 shows emission of CO2 as a function of percapita GDP. The richer the country, the more the CO2 emissions. Note however the low CO2 emissions by France, due
primarily to the large use of nuclear energy to generate electricity.
F IGURE 5. Projected oil production showing expected peak around
2040.
F IGURE 6. Correlation of global mean temperature with atmospheric CO2 concentration.
F IGURE 7. Greenhouse gas emissions by source.
Rev. Mex. Fı́s. S 56 (2) (2010) 34–39
WORLDWIDE ENERGY CRISIS: ENERGY TRENDS IN BRAZIL
37
willing to pay, as the economy of their country is somewhat
local, while climate change is global. International agreements are essential so that developed and developing countries can share the economic burden of change and so no noncomplying country can have an economic advantage over another country which complies with international agreements
to reduce emission of greenhouse gases.
Reduction of the growth of demand for energy. Efficient
utilization of energy is our best resource. We can build more
efficient buildings, use more efficient appliances, replace incandescent lamps with compact fluorescent lamps, plan our
cities to be more compact, encourage public transit, drive
smaller cars, and so on. Technology is essential to reducing energy use, and scientists and engineers have a significant role to play. Reducing energy use and conserving energy now will buy time for development of more long-term
methods of reducing energy use, such as electric cars. More
efficient energy use and conservation will also reduce production of greenhouse gases, although major effort is required
in most countries to produce electricity using renewable resources rather than combusting fossil fuels.
F IGURE 8. CO2 emissions as a function of GDP.
F IGURE 9. Domestic energy supply in Brazil compared with
OECD and the world.
There are significant barriers to meaningful reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions. Climate is highly variable, thus
changes over time are difficult to see. Global climate change
takes place over decades and centuries, while the political
process generally has a time scale no longer than a few years.
And there are costs associated with dealing with reduction of
emission of greenhouse gases, which not all countries will be
Technology and policy. For the future, capturing and harnessing solar energy is a clear path to a secure energy future,
although much research and development needs to be done
to make solar energy economically viable. Nuclear energy,
wind, and biomass are all feasible, and all must be explored
for us to have a sustainable energy future.
A carbon-free transportation system will require using
electricity for transportation, assuming a “green” grid. This
is not feasible at present, as there are no cost-effective batteries capable of powering a family car at a reasonable price.
Research on batteries is essential. Another possible avenue
to carbon-free transportation is the use of hydrogen and fuel
cells to generate electricity on-board a vehicle. Again, there
are no cost-effective ways of producing, distributing, and
F IGURE 10. Brazil’s primary energy supply: 1971-2005, and pie chart for 2005.
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A.S. SCHLACHTER
F IGURE 11. Energy from oil is much more important than energy from ethanol in Brazil.
in fact, the entire annual world-wide production of platinum
would not be sufficient to make the 15 million cars sold annually in the United States equipped with fuel cells. Research
on catalysis and fuel cells is clearly essential, as is research
on storing hydrogen in solids at densities exceeding the density of liquid hydrogen.
There are many more research areas which relate to energy. Examples include developing more efficient photovoltaic materials, capture and sequestration of carbon, applications of biology to energy production (including artificial
photosynthesis), and many other topics. We as scientists can
play a leading role in our energy future.
We as citizens also have a role to play. We need to inform
policy makers so they are technically informed and can create
coherent, stable, reasonable government policies. Participation in informing government can help minimize misguided
policy, such as the mandate in the United States to produce
large quantities of ethanol from corn. Not only does this not
help produce energy or reduce emission of greenhouse gases,
it is also in part responsible for the world-wide increase of
the price of corn, soy, beef, and other foods. An enlightened
government, advised by scientists, and with pressure from
citizens and voters, can make more constructive policy which
does not result in a destructive outcome, as in the case of turning food into fuel on a planet with billions of starving people.
F IGURE 13. World energy supply 2006.
F IGURE 14. Energy consumption by sector in Brazil.
3.
Brazil
storing hydrogen on-board a vehicle at present, nor are PEM
fuel cells inexpensive enough for widespread use (the sixty
grams of platinum used as a catalyst in a typical fuel cell for
automotive use costs over $4000 at present market prices);
Brazil is a country with about half the population of the
United States. The energy situation in Brazil is very different
from that in the United States and the developed world, because nearly half of its energy comes from renewable sources.
Rev. Mex. Fı́s. S 56 (2) (2010) 34–39
WORLDWIDE ENERGY CRISIS: ENERGY TRENDS IN BRAZIL
F IGURE 15. Electric energy generation in Brazil: by source.
F IGURE 16. Electric energy generation in world: by source.
The primary energy supply in Brazil has a large fraction
of oil and renewables.
Although Brazil is well known for production of ethanol
from sugar cane, in fact oil is a much more important source
of energy in Brazil than is ethanol. Nonetheless, cars in
Brazil can run on any mixture of gasoline and ethanol, providing fuel flexibility which is lacking in most countries.
Brazil is also the world leader in ethanol production (Fig. 11).
1. American
ficiency:
Physical Society Report on
“Energy
Future—-Think
Energy EfEfficiency”.
39
Energy consumption in Brazil is shown by sector in
Fig. 14. Note the steep increase in energy consumption in
the time period 1970-2002. This increase is continuing.
The number of cars in Brazil is 23 million for 49 million households. This contrasts with the United States, where
there are 204 millions cars for 107 million households. Thus
there are more than four times as many cars per household in
the United States than in Brazil.
Electricity production in Brazil is different than in the
world, as a huge fraction of electricity in Brazil is produced
by hydroelectric plants—74%—-compared with 16% worldwide (Figs. 15 and 16).
Although we shall not discuss ethanol production in detail, it is worth noting that the ratio of energy output per unit
of fossil-fuel energy input is 8-10; the corresponding ratio
for corn is about 1 (meaning as much energy is put into producing ethanol from corn as is contained in the ethanol produced).
There are many causes of deforestation in the Amazon.
One is the ethanol-from-corn policy in the United States. Although sugar cane cannot be grown in the Amazon, beef can,
and the rising price of beef on the world market due in large
measure to misguided American policy is encouraging slashand-burn agriculture in the Amazon for beef production.
There are many opportunities for scientists and engineers
to contribute to finding solutions to the global energy crisis.
It is particularly important for scientists in developing countries to help their governments not emulate the unfortunate
trends set in developed countries. Rather, intelligent applications of technology can advance Brazil and other developing
countries to achieve or maintain energy independence, reduce
the emission of greenhouse gases, and make our planet safe
for future generations.
http://www.aps.org/energyefficiencyreport/index.cfm
Rev. Mex. Fı́s. S 56 (2) (2010) 34–39