Sea Level Rise, Wind Damage and Infrastructure at Risk

Values we share together
The Business Case
 Enhancing Prosperity, Safety and
Quality of Life
 Concerns about how to deal with
today’s conditions
 Preserving our heritage and
natural resources for future
generations
 Vitally interested in restoring
what we have & making it more
resilient
Beauvoir Damaged & Restored
Scientific Uncertainty is a
reason for action not delay
 
 
 
 
It’s not a question of if man’s activity will
warm the planet (98% of scientists agree
that it is)
The uncertainty is over how much impact
and when it will happen
We need to consider the full range of
potential outcomes to manage risk
We should not leave our future to wishful
thinking
We get to choose between mitigation, adaptation and suffering
Gulf Coast Adaptation
Study October 2010
Hazards Evaluated
Scenarios Selected
Expect a Katrina like storm
twice in every lifetime
Climate change is expected
to increase losses over time
Mississippi’s Six Coastal Counties
Average Annual Expected Losses From Wind & Surge
“2030 Average Climate Scenario”
Losses by Zip Codes in
$ Millions - 2010 $’s
$ 2 – $10
$11 - $50
$51 - $75
$76 - $100
$101 - $125
NOAA Hurricane Storm Tide
Storm Tide +
Predicted
Storm
WavesTide
Tide
DUNE
MLLW
  Mississippi Coast saw up to 28 ft storm surge from Katrina
Mississippi – Alabama Barrier Islands are
undergoing rapid land loss and translocation
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1161/OFR-2007-1161-screen.pdf
Recent storms have dramatically changed
Barrier Islands degrading our first line of defense
  Ship Island was cleaved in
half by Camille in ‘69
Since Katrina:
  Most of East Ship Island has
disappeared
  West Ship Island and Cat
Island have shrunk slightly
  The southern tip of Cat Island
is missing
  Changes are occurring with
storm events and are not
recovering
NASA Earth Observatory http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=5857
Dauphin Island Before
and After Ivan
http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/katrina/lidar/dauphin-island.html
Dauphin Island Before
and After Katrina
http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/katrina/lidar/dauphin-island.html
Dauphin Island Before Ivan & After Katrina
There are options that will
increase resiliency and
reduce suffering
Cost per unit of benefit
(Dollars)
Actions below 1 $/$
line on the y axis
provide net economic
benefits (benefits
refer to loss averted)
1
0
Loss
averted
, 2030
Reduction of the
expected loss in 2030,
by countering the
effects of climate risk
Cost-benefit ratios calculated based on discounted present value
estimates—MERELY ILLUSTRATIVE- OF C/B
1
Loss averted,
2030
$ Billions
1 Included despite high C/B ratios due to strong co-benefits, risk aversion
2 Total capital investment, non-discounted, across 20 years
CapEx required2
$ Billions
Cost Effective Investments
to Reduce Losses Exist
We have values that are at risk and
worth fighting for
  What are the risks to critical
infrastructure?
  How can we as stakeholders work
together to plan for a more resilient
future?
