Centre of Excellence – International Centre for Geohazards (ICG)
Transcription
Centre of Excellence – International Centre for Geohazards (ICG)
Centre of Excellence – International Centre for Geohazards (ICG) Annual Report - 2006 20031103-3 31 March 2007 Partners in ICG Client: The Research Council of Norway Contact person: Contract reference: Are Birger Carlson SFF – ICG 146035/420 For the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute Suzanne Lacasse Managing Director Report prepared by: Farrokh Nadim Director, ICG Reviewed by: Postal address: Street address: Internet: P.O. Box 3930 Ullevaal Stadion, N-0806 OSLO, NORWAY Sognsveien 72, OSLO http://www.ngi.no Suzanne Lacasse Telephone: Telefax: e -mail: (+47) 22 02 30 00 Postal account: 0814 51 60643 (+47) 22 23 04 48 Bank account: 5096 05 01281 [email protected] Business No. 958 254 318 MVA BS EN ISO 9001, Certified by BSI, Registration No. FS 32989 International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 - 2 Summary The "International Centre for Geohazards" (ICG) is one the 13 Centres of Excellence (Senter for Fremragende Forskning, SFF) established by The Research Council of Norway (RCN) in 2003. The Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) is the host organisation for ICG. Partners in the centre are the University of Oslo (UiO), the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), NORSAR, and the Geological Survey of Norway (NGU). Results and activities in 2006 • The research plan was followed and most of the goals set for the year were achieved. With respect to four major goals of the centre, a) in-kind contribution from the partners, b) complementary projects from the industry, c) number of PhD candidates, and d) international networking, the results have already, after 4 years of operation, exceeded by far the goals and expectations. • ICG, as well as the 12 other CoEs there were established in 2003, were evaluated under the auspices of The Research Council of Norway in 2006. The purpose of the midway evaluation was to assess the scientific quality and performance of a centre in absolute terms and relative to the centre’s original research plans. The evaluation also provided data to support RCN’s decision as to whether a centre would continue for an entire 10-year period, or should be wound up after the first 5 years. The results of the midway evaluation were announced by the RCN on 15 December 2006. The evaluation of ICG was very positive and the work of ICG was characterised as “exceptionally good”. The Research Council of Norway decided to continue its funding of ICG activities for the full 10 years. • The focus of ICG’s research in 2006 was on: - Improving the understanding of geohazards. - Assessment of the risks associated with by geohazards to individuals and society. - Development and improvement of methods for modelling the mechanical processes underlying the physical phenomena of different geohazards and for evaluating the consequences of geohazards. - Graduate university programmes on geohazards at UiO and NTNU • Joint workshops, seminars, and project meetings contributed to creating a good collaboration spirit among the five partners. • There is considerable interest and enthusiasm about the activities of ICG, both in Norway and abroad. Challenges for 2007 The overall research plan remains essentially unchanged. The main challenges foreseen for 2007 include: • Consolidation of research experience, summarising the lessons learned, and definition of the research axes for the years 2008-2012. • Research on complex issues such as vulnerability and risk assessment, tsunami runup estimation, disintegration of material during sliding, rainfall-induced landslides, earthquake response, etc. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 - 3 • Identification of the niches where the combined expertise of ICG partners could be put into practical use on the international arena. • International networking. • Further development of international university graduate programmes in geohazards. • Attracting PhD candidates, post-docs and guest researchers to Norway. • Active participation in the research programmes related to natural hazards in EU’s 7th Frame Programme. • Running and planning new international conferences, seminars and workshops. • Increased publication in highly respected scientific journals. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 - 4 Contents 1 BACKGROUND.........................................................................................................................5 2 ORGANISATION OF ICG.........................................................................................................5 3 ACTIVITIES OF BOARD OF DIRECTORS.............................................................................8 4 TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES OF ICG IN 2006 ...........................................................................9 4.1 Core research activities .....................................................................................................9 4.2 The Åknes/Tafjord Project................................................................................................9 4.3 Tsunami Field Survey to Java 2006 ................................................................................15 5 NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, AND OTHER ICG ACTIVITIES IN 2006...............................................................................................................19 5.1 ICG Publications in 2006 ................................................................................................19 5.2 National and international contacts made on geohazards in 2006 ..................................19 5.3 Other international activities ...........................................................................................19 5.4 Web site...........................................................................................................................20 6 DOCTORAL CANDIDATES AND GUEST RESEARCHERS IN 2006 ................................21 7 ACCOUNTING 2006................................................................................................................22 7.1 Cash funding (kNOK) .....................................................................................................22 7.2 In kind (kNOK)...............................................................................................................22 8 PLANNED ACTIVITIES AND BUDGET FOR 2007.............................................................22 8.1 Research Projects ............................................................................................................22 8.2 International networking .................................................................................................23 8.3 EU proposals and projects with financing from other sources........................................23 8.4 Organising conferences and workshops in 2006 and 2007 .............................................23 8.5 ICG budget for 2007 .......................................................................................................24 Appendix A – ICG Publications in 2006 Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG Review and reference document f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 1 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 - 5 BACKGROUND The "International Centre for Geohazards" (ICG) is a Centre of Excellence (Senter for Fremragende Forskning, SFF) established by the Research Council of Norway in 2003. The Norwegian Centres of Excellence scheme is designed to stimulate Norwegian research groups to set up centres devoted to long-term basic research. The intention is to raise the quality of Norwegian research and bring more researchers and research groups up to a high international standard. ICG is a consortium of five partners. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) is the host organisation for ICG. Other partners in the centre are University of Oslo (UiO), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), NORSAR, and Geological Survey of Norway (NGU). The consortium may be expanded with "associated partners" subject to agreement by all five main partners. ICG’s objective is to be an international centre of expertise on basic and applied research on geo-related natural hazards (geohazards), such as landslides, earthquakes and tsunamis. The aim is to develop knowledge that can help save lives and reduce damage to infrastructure and the environment. Another aim is to train graduate students and highly-qualified researchers from Norway and abroad. 2 ORGANISATION OF ICG ICG has its own Board of Directors (Steering Committee). Each of the ICG partners, NGI, NTNU, UiO, NORSAR and NGU, has a representative on the Steering Committee. In addition, the Steering Committee has at least one external representative from Norway and one international representative. The Research Council of Norway may also appoint a member to the Steering Committee. ICG has associated partners, e.g. University of Tromsø, but they do not have a representative on the Steering Committee. As the host organisation, NGI appointed the director of ICG, and NGI’s representative is the chairman of the Steering Committee. The activities of the ICG are grouped into three categories: 1. Research projects 2. Training and education 3. International networking and dissemination of information The organisation chart and the project chart of ICG are shown on the following pages. The ICG projects and other ICG activities are elaborated further later in the report. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: Annual Report - 2005 20031103-3 2006-03-31 6 Organisation chart of ICG as of 31 December 2006 Board of Directors Kaare Høeg (UiO/NGI), Chairman Philippe Jeanjean (BP) Morten Smelror (NGU) Steinar Nordal (NTNU) Anders Elverhøi (UiO) Steinar Schanche (NVE) Anders Dahle (NORSAR) Tor-Inge Tjelta (Statoil) NGI Suzanne Lacasse Managing Director Dr. Farrokh Nadim, Director Dr. Anders Solheim, Deputy Director Tini van der Harst, Administrative Assistant ICG Research Projects and Themes Technical Adviser Prof. Kaare Høeg International Scientific Advisors Prof. Gholamreza Mesri (U.of Illinois) Prof. Herbert H. Einstein (MIT) Prof. Steven Kramer (U. of Washington) Prof. Kok-Kwang Phoon (Nat. U. of Singapore) ICG Project 1 ICG Project 2 ICG Project 3 ICG Project 4 ICG Project 5 ICG Project N Project Manager Project Manager Project Manager Project Manager Project Manager Project Manager Researchers Researchers Researchers Researchers Researchers Researchers Students Students Students Students Students Students Theme A - Theme Coordinator f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc Theme B - Theme Coordinator Theme C - Theme Coordinator FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: Annual Report - 2005 20031103-3 2006-03-31 7 Project chart of ICG as of 31 December 2006 Dr. Farrokh Nadim, Director Dr. Anders Solheim, Deputy Director Tini van der Harst, Administrative Assistant Technical Adviser Prof. Kaare Høeg ICG Project Project Managers Vulnerability and risk analysis for geohazards Earthquakes – hazard, risk and loss estimation Rockslides and engineering geology – Stability, failure, sliding and consequences Landslides in soil slopes Offshore geohazards Slide Dynamics and mechanics of disintegration Tsunami modelling and prediction Development of graduate studies in geohazards PhD-candidates: Graziella Devoli (UiO) Roger Ebeltoft (NTNU) Sylfest Glimsdal (UiO) Maj Gøril Glåmen (NTNU) Gustav Grimstad (NTNU Guro Grøneng (NTNU) Jean-Sébastien L'Heureux (NTNU) Harald Iwe (UiO) Vidar Kveldsvik (NTNU) Finn Løvholt (UiO) Arne Moe (NTNU) Trond Nordvik (NTNU) Bård Romsdal (UiO) Inger Lise Solberg (NTNU) Vikas Thakur (NTNU) Dr. Suzanne Lacasse (NGI) Prof. Hilmar Bungum (NORSAR) Dr. Lars H. Blikra (NGU) Mr. Håkon Heyedahl (NGI) Dr. Anders Solheim (NGI) Prof. Anders Elverhøi (UiO) Dr. Carl Harbitz (NGI) Prof. Steinar Nordal (NTNU) Themes covering several projects Geophysics for geohazards GIT applications in geohazards Debris flows and rock slide dynamics f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc International Scientific Advisors Prof. Gholamreza Mesri (U.of Illinois) Prof. Herbert H. Einstein (MIT) Prof. Steven Kramer (U. of Washington) Prof. Kok-Kwang Phoon (Nat. U. of Singapore Guest Researchers Dr. Marco Uzielli, Prof. Bak Kong Low, Prof. Rathina Anbalagan, Ms. Arzu Erener Ms. Carolina Sigaran Dr. Caterina Melchiorre Dr. Kalle Kronholm Dr. Shaoli Yang Dr. Fabio De Blasio Prof. Michael Long, Dr Gregoire Pirol, Dr Li Sa Theme Coordinator Dr. Isabelle Lecomte (NORSAR) Prof. Bernd Etzelmüller (UiO) Mr. Ulrik Domaas (NGI) Professors from Norway active in ICG: Anders Elverhøi (UiO) Bernd Etzelmüller (UiO) Leiv-Jacob Gelius (UiO) Bjørn Gjevik (UiO) Lars Grande (NTNU) Svein Hamran (UiO) Kaare Høeg (UiO) Andreas Kääb (UiO) Hans Petter Langtangen (UiO) Terje Midtbø (NTNU) Farrokh Nadim (NTNU & UiO) Bjørn Nilsen (NTNU) Steinar Nordal (NTNU) Geir Kleivstul Pedersen (UiO) Kåre Rokoengen (NTNU) Rolf Sandven (NTNU) FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: Annual Report - 2006 3 20031103-4 2007-03-31 8 ACTIVITIES OF BOARD OF DIRECTORS The main responsibility of ICG’s Steering Committee is to set the priorities in the yearly research plans. The Steering Committee also acts as a technical advisor to the Director of ICG. The Steering Committee shall also discuss and deal with • • • annual budget annual technical report(s) annual financial report The annual technical and financial report (this document) is prepared by the Director of the Centre and delivered to the Managing Director of NGI, who is responsible for reporting the activities of ICG to The Research Council of Norway. The ICG Steering Committee is composed of: Prof. Kaare Høeg (UiO/NGI), Chairman Dr Morten Smelror (NGU) Prof. Anders Elverhøi (UiO) Mr. Anders Dahle (NORSAR) Prof. Steinar Nordal (NTNU) Mr Steinar Schanche (NVE) Mr Tor-Inge Tjelta (Statoil) Dr Philippe Jeanjean (BP, USA) The Steering Committee held 2 meetings in 2006: Meeting No. 1/06: Meeting No. 2/06: 15 March 2006 6 December 2006 The following meetings in 2007 are planned: Meeting No. 1/07: Meeting No. 2/07: 3.1 23 May 2007 November/December 2007 Midway evaluation The Board of Directors were involved in the preparation of the ICG report to RCN. The results of the evaluation are enclosed in Appendix B. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 4 TECHNICAL ACTIVITIES OF ICG IN 2006 4.1 Core research activities Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 9 ICG divided its technical activities in 2006 into nine projects, and significant progress was done on each: • • • • • • • • • Risk and vulnerability analysis for geohazards Risk and vulnerability analysis for geohazards Stability of rock slopes Stability of soil slopes Offshore geohazards Slide dynamics and mechanics of disintegration Tsunami modelling and prediction Development of graduate studies in geohazards Prevention and mitigation (with focus on monitoring and early warning systems) In addition to these projects, three "themes" that involve several projects were given high priority, and a Theme Coordinator was designated for streamlining the lateral cooperation among the technical projects in each theme: • • • Applications of geophysics to geohazards Applications of Geographical Information Technology (GIT) to geohazards Debris flows and rock slide dynamics Detailed information about the ICG technical projects and themes is available on the ICG web site www.geohazards.no. In 2006 the partners in the ICG were involved in several high profile national and international projects. Two of these projects are presented below. 4.2 The Åknes/Tafjord Project Rockfalls and rockslides are among the most serious natural hazards in Norway, mainly because of their tsunamigenic potential. The three most serious natural disasters in Norway in the 20th century were related to tsunamis triggered by massive rockslides into fjords or lakes in western Norway (Loen, 1905 and 1936; Tafjord, 1934), causing more than 170 fatalities. With the increased public attention on these problems in Norway and elsewhere, study of risks associated with rock slope failures has been an important ICG activity for several years. The potential rockslides and rockfalls in the Storfjord region in western Norway have been in strong focus during the past few years. A massive rockslide/rockfall at Åknes in Stranda municipality or at Hegguraksla in Norddal municipality would have dramatic consequences, as the tsunami f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 10 triggered by the rockslide/rockfall will pose a threat to many communities around Storfjord. The Åknes/Tafjord project, was initiated by the Norwegian Government and the local municipalities in 2005 to establish an operative warning and evacuation system as the main tool for avoiding loss of human lives should a massive rockslide take place. All ICG partners are involved in the Åknes/Tafjord project. The research of several PhD-candidates in ICG is directly related to the Åknes/Tafjord project and research activities of ICG provide scientific support to the monitoring and early warning system that is being designed and installed. Municipality of Fjøra in Tafjord before (left) and after (right) the tsunami triggered by a massive rockslide into Tafjord in April 1934. Experiences from Norway and other countries show that such events are preceded by many warning signs in form of increased rate of displacement, vibrations, and small slide events. Continuous monitoring often shows an accelerating rate of displacement several weeks and even months before the major slide event. The Åknes/Tafjord project includes site investigations, monitoring, and warning system for the potentially unstable rock slopes at Åknes in Stranda County and at Hegguraksla in Norddal County. The project also includes a regional susceptibility and hazard analysis for the inner Storfjord region, which includes Tafjord, Norddalsfjord, Sunnylvsfjord and Geirangerfjord. The Åknes/Tafjord project organisation includes a steering group, two working groups, and a project group at the Emergency Preparedness Centre in Stranda. The project cooperates with a large group of national and international organisations and consulting companies. These include Stranda, Norddal, Stordal and Ørskog municipalities; the Møre and Romsdal County Government; International Centre for Geohazards (ICG); Geological Survey of Norway (NGU); Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning (DSB); Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI); Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU); University of Bergen; University of Oslo; The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS); NORSAR; Fugro Survey A/S; f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 11 ISPAS; UMS; Blom Geomatics; ITAS; Norut IT; EL24; Umoe IKT; ETH Zürich (Switzerland); University of Milano-Bicocca (Italy); University of Lausanne (Switzerland); University of Grenoble, LGIT (France); CSG (Italy); and LISALab (Italy). Location map of the study area in Åknes/Tafjord project Most of the planned site investigation related to the potentially unstable rock slopes at Åknes and Hegguraksla was finished in 2006. At Åknes, slope movements were detected from the surface down to a depth of 60 m. The observed deformation pattern confirms the earlier assumptions regarding the volume of the potentially unstable rock mass. However, there is quite a large uncertainty on whether the most likely mode of slope failure is one large event involving a rock volume of over 30 mill. m3, or whether the failure will consist of many smaller slide events. Interpretation of the latest measurements suggests a slide volume of 10-14 mill. m3 as the most likely scenario. The numerical modelling of the tsunami caused by the rockslide also involves many uncertainties. To reduce the uncertainties, physical modelling is being done at UiO and NTNU to improve the understanding of the initial wave pattern generated by the sliding rock masses. A huge rockslide with volume greater than 30 mill. m3 will pose a serious threat to coastal areas of 4 towns, and may even have consequences further out along the fjord. The slopes displacements at Åkens and Hegguraksla are continuously being monitored. At Hegguraksla, no movements of the rock slope have been detected so far. However, displacements of the order of a few millimetres per year may have gone unnoticed. Obtaining accurate data in bad weather f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 12 conditions had been a challenge. Significant effort is underway in 2007 to deploy more robust instruments and better data communication to the earlywarning centre in Stranda. The large datasets obtained from different instrumentation and monitoring systems are being integrated into a database that would form the basis for future analyses. Overview of the Åknes rock slope. The white dotted line indicates the contour of the unstable area. The length of the “top scarp”/upper crack is about 700m. Numbers show approximate dates of known rock slides and black dotted lines show their assumed area. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: Annual Report - 2006 20031103-4 2007-03-31 13 Deformations at Åknes measured with radar (LISA-Radar and NGU). The figure on the left shows the displacements for the period 16 August – 9 September 2006, while the one on the right is for the period 10-28 September 2006. The potentially unstable rock block being monitored at Hegguraksla. Note the open cracks on the surface. Preliminary results of tsunami modelling suggest an inundation height of up to 35 m at Hellesylt for rockslide volume of 35 mill. m3 at Åknes. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 14 Considering the experience from similar international monitoring projects and the local needs in the Storfjord, the monitoring system was designed on the basis of following principles: • Several independent monitoring systems should be installed to ensure that the system is operative at all times. • Drastic variations in weather and atmospheric conditions create a challenging situation in the fjords. • The potential for snow avalanche and rock bursts is quite high in most of the area that is being monitored. • Solar panels do not provide sufficient electricity in this region. Energy supply must be established from several sources to ensure a stable and reliable electrical supply to the instruments. • Different communication systems must be used to ensure continuous data flow from the instruments to the Emergency Preparedness Centre in Stranda. High-speed photographs of the physical modelling of wave generation being done at University of Oslo. The model for the sliding rock mass is a block with a sharp front. The height of the block is 10 cm, which is a scaled model of a 50 m thick slide mass. The monitoring system at Åknes consists of the following components. Surface monitoring instruments: • GPS-network with 8 antennas • Total station with 30 prisms • Ground-based radar with 10 reflectors • Five extensometers that measure the distance between cracks • 2 simple lasers that measure the distance between the two largest cracks • Geofones that measure vibrations f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 15 Instruments in borehole: • Inclinometers that measure the movement • Piezometers for measuring pore pressure (water level) • Temperature and electrical resistivity of water Meteorological station: • Temperature • Precipitation • Snow depth • Wind speed • Ground temperature • Radiation Locations of the GPS network and reflectors for ground-based radar (left); locations of the total station and the prisms for measuring distance (right). The main ICG activities related to the Åknes/Tafjord project in 2007 are detailed assessment of the stability of rock slope at Åknes, modelling of the tsunamis generated by different rockslide scenarios, and a comprehensive event tree analysis of the risk posed by the potentially unstable rock slope at Åknes to the residents of the closest municipalities. This analysis will include a wide pooling of expert opinion. In the autumn of 2007, the Åknes/Tafjord early warning and emergency preparedness system will become operational. As part of this system, the Emergency Preparedness Centre in Stranda will get a permanent staff and organisation. The inauguration date for the system will be 1 October 2007 at the latest. 4.3 Field Survey after the Tsunami of July 2006 in Java Background f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 16 On July 17th, 2006, a distance of more than 300 km along the southwest and south-central provinces of Java, Indonesia, was struck by a tsunami. The tsunami hit the coast about 40 minutes after a magnitude 7.7 earthquake with epicentre about 200 km south of Java. The waves were locally extraordinarily high for such an earthquake (run-up heights exceeding 20 m), caused severe destruction, and killed more than 600 people. More than two thirds of the fatalities were women and children. The tsunami occurred at low tide and at a time with few tourists on the beaches, otherwise the death toll would have been much higher. Map segment by Bandung Inst. of Technology Within one week after the tsunami, the International Tsunami Survey Team (ITST, partly supported by the National Science Foundation, NSF) deployed a team of tsunami scientists from Indonesia, USA, New Zealand, Norway, and Greece. ICG was called for the mission based on its background in tsunami modelling and risk assessment, and was represented by Dr Carl B. Harbitz, ICG/NGI. After a few intensive days of preparation including collecting the most relevant background information (earthquake, tide and wave characteristics, known observations so far, previous events, etc.), the team gathered in the city of Bandung, central western Java. The Field Survey The team was split in small groups of 2-4 scientists plus a driver. Some of the groups were also lucky to have local translators, an obvious advantage in organising and interviewing. Altogether the team covered a distance of about 600 km along the southern coast of Java. Tsunami flow depths and run-up Devastations and partly cleared flotsam at heights were clearly higher Bulak Benda. than expected from the first reports in the news, probably because the more touristy places were not among the most badly affected areas. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 17 ITST measured tsunami flow depths (above ground), maximum run-up heights (above mean sea level), inundation distance, and sediment deposition thickness. Run-up heights were more than 10 m several places, with a peak of 21 m, while the inundation distance reached hundreds of metres in several places. The damages were tremendous. The unusual distribution of run-up and inundation suggests a possible local submarine slump or landslide in addition to the earthquake as the tsunami source mechanism. Unfortunately, good or unique recordings were difficult to obtain in several places made to the complex terrain configuration (spits, beach ridges, inland declivity, etc.), efficient clearing of flotsam, ruins, and debris by bulldozers, and confusion due to previous demolition. Additional nonscientific challenges were related to linguistic misunderstandings, sharp or Ruins with tsunami low depth marks and overhanging items, finding safe overhanging items west of Cikembulan. food and accommodation, as well as poor knowledge of the local fauna. Eyewitnesses describing tsunami flow depth in their house in Karang (left) and wave characteristics in Singkil (right) during interviews. Measurements were made by folding rules, laser binoculars or laser range finders. Position (by GPS) was registered. Together with the time, this was also used to correct the height measurements for the tide level. Damages and measurements were documented by photos. In addition, several interviews were made and taped on video. The interviewees reported 2-3 incident waves f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 18 where the second was often the highest. The wave was described as a sediment-rich bore. The interviewees also described other wave characteristics and were very helpful in pointing out flow depths and inundation. The team experienced the importance of having female members in the groups, enabling or allowing contact with the local women and their children, who often made the best first-hand witnesses being more often present on the beaches or in their nearby houses when the tsunami struck. Sediment sheets of 5-15 cm thickness were commonly observed in the rice Interview with women and children in Ciparanti, the driver helps out as translator (left). Rice paddy fields covered by sediment deposits after tsunami inundation (right). paddy fields behind the beach ridges. The sand was often hard to detect in between grass and plants on the ground, and digging is often required to detect the layers. Thinner layers of sand were more easily detectable on solid ground, roads, floors, and terraces. Along the route, the ITST groups also saw Indonesian survey teams, emergency preparedness teams, and camps for homeless tsunami survivors. No warnings Indonesia has a long record of tsunamis. A tsunami event in 1994 killed more than 200 people along the southern coast of Java, while the recent 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caused more than 160,000 casualties in the Ache province in Indonesia. In spite of all these experiences, there was no public awareness campaign or operative tsunami warning system prior to the July 2006 Java tsunami. The Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System announced by UNESCO two weeks prior to the event was not functioning. The warning issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre (PTWC) did not trigger any local instruction on evacuation, due to short notice and because the guards awaited the tsunamometer buoy signals. However, the buoys had broken moorings and were not operational. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 19 In most places the local population did not experience any shaking of the ground or withdrawal of the sea prior to the first tsunami impact. This is because the earthquake was too slow to be felt on land, and because low tide combined with normal large and breaking wind waves masked most of the recession. The July 2006 Java tsunami illustrates the need for education and awareness campaigns in regions too close to the epicentre of tsunami-generating earthquakes for a tsunami early warning system (TEWS) to be effective. When neither ground shaking nor sea recession can be easily recognised, the tsunami can at the best be recognised only shortly before impact. This requires a spontaneous self-evacuation where the people need to know the best escape routes to the most convenient places, how high these places need to be and for how long they need to stay there. 5 NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, AND OTHER ICG ACTIVITIES IN 2006 5.1 ICG Publications in 2006 The ICG Publication List for 2006 is given in Appendix A. 5.2 National and international contacts made on geohazards in 2006 In addition to the contacts listed in the Annual Reports for 2003 through 2005, the following new international and national contacts were made: • • • • • 5.3 India – Memorandum of Understanding was signed with Department of Science and Technology of India to cooperate on Phase 2 of research related to landslides, tsunamis and remote sensing starting in January 2007 (Phase 1 was closed in December 2006). Italy – University of Bologna France – Pierre and Marie Currie University in Paris UK – Geotechnical Consulting Group (GCG), plans for 2 workshops in 2007. USA – Contacts with the US Army Corps of Engineers and several actors in aftermath of Hurricane Katerina and unsatisfactory performance of protection levees in New Orleans. Other international activities ICG is an active member of the international non-profit organisation ICL (International Consortium for Landslides), which was established by UNESCO in Japan. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 20 NGI/ICG continued work on two regional network programmes, one in Asia and one in Central America, to increase the local competence in managing risks related to different types of landslides. A new regional project was initiated in 2006 in the Caribbean to increase the local competence in managing risks related to tsunamis, earthquakes and landslides. The ICG partners NGI, NORSAR and UiO are involved in the Caribbean project. The ICG partners NORSAR and NGI are involved in several institutional cooperation projects in India with focus on problems related to earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis. In 2006, NORSAR and NGI, in cooperation with the Technical University of Madrid, started a 3-year project on earthquake vulnerability assessment of urban areas of Central America. ICG personnel were heavily involved in the organisation and planning of several large and important conferences, including: • Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, Texas, April-May 2007 • First North American Landslide Conference, Vail, Colorado, June 2007 • First International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety & Risk, Shanghai, China, October 2007 • 10th International Symposium on Landslides and Engineered Slopes, Xi’an, China, September 2008 • Hong Kong Forum (2007) • 33rd International Geological Congress, Oslo, August 2008 5.4 Web site The web site of ICG is www.geohazards.no. The web site was redesigned in May 2005, and it is the main channel for disseminating information about ICG to the general public, as well as the specialists. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: Annual Report - 2006 6 20031103-4 2007-03-31 21 DOCTORAL CANDIDATES AND GUEST RESEARCHERS IN 2006 ICG’s PhD-candidates in 2006 Name Nationality University Krishna Aryal* Graziella Devoli Roger Ebeltoft Sylfest Glimsdal Maj Gøril Glåmen Guro Grøneng Harald Iwe Vidar Kveldsvik Finn Løvholt Arne Moe Bård Romstad Inger Lise Solberg Vikas Thakur Trond Nordvik Jean-Sébastien L’Heureux Gustav Grimstad Hedda Breien José Cepeda Arash Zakeri * Nepal Italy Norway Norway Norway Norway Norway Norway Norway Norway Norway Norway India Norway Canada Norway Norway El Salvador Canada NTNU UiO NTNU UiO NTNU NTNU UiO NTNU UiO NTNU UiO NTNU NTNU NTNU NTNU NTNU UiO UiO UiO Financial source Appointment Percent period in 2006 engagement NTNU 01/01 – 28/02 20 ICG 100 01/01 – 31/12 NTNU/Vegvesenet 100 01/01 – 31/12 UiO/SIMULA 25 01/01 – 31/12 NTNU 65 01/05 – 31/12 ICG 100 01/08 – 31/12 NGI/ICG 25 01/01 – 31/12 NGI/ICG 60 01/03 – 31/12 NGI/ICG 75 01/01 – 31/12 NTNU/ICG 75 01/01 – 31/12 UiO/ICG 100 01/01 – 31/12 ICG/NTNU/NGU/NVE 01/01 – 31/12 100 NTNU 100 01/01 – 31/12 NTNU 100 01/01 – 31/12 NTNU/Vegvesenet/ICG 01/01 – 31/12 100 NTNU 100 01/08 – 31/12 Vista Programme 100 01/01 – 31/12 ICG / Quota Prog. 100 01/01 – 31/12 IS-BILAT Prog. / ICG 01/02 – 31/12 90 Dr. Aryal Krishna, successfully defended his PhD thesis in May 2006, and received his doctoral degree from NTNU. Post-doctoral and guest researchers at ICG in 2006 Position Post-doc. Post-doc. Post-doc. Post-doc. Post-doc. Post-doc. Post-doc. Visiting professor Visiting professor Visiting professor Guest researcher Guest researcher Name Dr Kalle Kronholm Dr Shaoli Yang Dr Gregoire Pirol Dr Li Sa Dr Marco Uzielli Dr Fabio De Blasio Dr Caterina Melchiorre Prof. Bak Kong Low Prof. Michael Long Prof. Rathina Anbalagan Ms Carolina Sigaran* Ms Arzu Erener** * ** Nationality Appointment period in 2006 01/01 – 31/12 15/08 – 31/12 01/01 – 31/12 01/01 – 31/10 01/01 – 31/10 01/01 – 31/12 01/09 – 31/12 15/05 – 25/08 Financial source Denmark China France China Italy Italy Italy Singapore Academic degree Ph.D. Ph.D. Ph.D. Ph.D. Ph.D. Ph.D. Ph.D. Ph.D. Ireland Ph.D. 15/09 – 15/12 NTNU India Ph.D. 29/06 – 27/07 NGI Costa Rica MSc 16/10 – 22/11 ICG Turkey MSc 20/10 – 31/12 ICG NGI / RCN NGI / ICG NTNU NTNU NGI UiO NGU / RCN NGI PhD-candidate at ITC, The Netherlands PhD-candidate at Middle East Technical University, Turkey f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: Annual Report - 2006 7 ACCOUNTING 2006 7.1 Cash funding (kNOK) 20031103-4 2007-03-31 22 The numbers below are minimum estimates. The actual cash funding from ICG partners and other industrial sources are greater. Activity Technical Projects Non-technical activities Administration & Steering Committee meetings Total 7.2 1,400 Funding NGU/NORSAR/ NGI UiO/NTNU 6,930 5,700 700 500 12,270 8,130 RCN 9,820 1,050 SUM Other/ Industrial 5,400 - 27,850 1,750 1,900 5,400 31,500 5,700 In kind (kNOK) The numbers below are minimum estimates. The actual numbers are higher. Contribution NGI Personnel 2,000 IT 500 Office spaces 2,000 Laboratory/Equipment 500 Project work / proposals/ etc. 1,000 Stipend to PhD-candidates 900 TOTAL 6,900 * Included in "Project work / proposals/ etc." NGU 200 500 600 50 200 130 1,680 NTNU * 0 100 500 100 500 1,900 3,100 8 PLANNED ACTIVITIES AND BUDGET FOR 2007 8.1 Research Projects UiO * 0 100 500 100 500 1,300 2,500 NORSAR 200 500 300 100 700 1,800 The following projects were approved for 2007 by the Board of Directors: • Risk and vulnerability analysis for geohazards • Earthquake hazard, risk and loss • Stability of rock slopes • Geomechanical modelling • Offshore geohazards • Slope instability assessment and hazard zonation • Slide dynamics • Tsunami modelling and prediction • Monitoring, remote sensing and early warning systems f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 23 In addition, 3 cross-expertise areas that involve several projects have assigned "theme coordinators": • Applications of geophysics to geohazards • Applications of Geographical Information Technology (GIT) to geohazards • Prevention and mitigation In addition the graduate (MSc and PhD) programmes initiated respectively in 2003 and 2005 at UiO and NTNU are continuing. 8.2 International networking Travels to disaster prevention and natural hazard centres in USA, Canada, Hong Kong, China and Japan are planned. Active participation (lecturing) in 10-20 international conferences is planned for 2007. In most cases, ICG representatives are asked to give keynote or state-of-the-art lectures. 8.3 EU proposals and projects with financing from other sources This will be a continuous activity throughout the existence of ICG. ICG is already involved in the Integrated Project LESSLOSS, the STREP Projects IRASMOS, TRANSFER and SAFER, and the I3-project NERIES (Network of Research Infrastructure for European Seismology) in European Commission’s 6th Frame Programme. The project GeoExtreme, financed by the NORKLIMA programme of the Research Council of Norway, is executed by ICG partners NGU and NGI, together with the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, CICERO and Norwegian Meteorological Institute. 8.4 Organising conferences and workshops in 2006 and 2007 In cooperation with Engineering Conferences International (ECI), ICG organised the international conference on "Geohazards – Technical, Economical and Social Risk Evaluation" in Lillehammer in June 2006. The conference attracted about 80 participants from all over the world. At the Offshore Technology Conference ’07 in Houston, ICG is organising 2 sessions where the research activities of ICG and other international actors in the area of offshore geohazards will be presented. ICG is planning two international workshops in connection with the Åknes/Tafjord project in August 2007: a hazard and risk assessment workshop, and a field trip and workshop on the potential Åknes rock slide and tsunami. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: Annual Report - 2006 8.5 20031103-4 2007-03-31 24 ICG budget for 2007 The table below reflects funding from The Research Council of Norway only. Considerable cash and in-kind contributions from the ICG partners and other sources of funding come in addition to the amounts below (see Section 7). ICG budget in 2007 based on funding from The Research Council of Norway 10,605 Graduate programmes on geohazards 200 Coordination of 3 themes 595 Non-technical activities: IT solutions, EU Proposals, web site & information, conference participation 560 International networking 200 Administration & Steering Committee meetings Contingency Total Comments See Section 8.1. See Section 8.1. SUM Total for technical projects = kNOK 11,400 9 technical projects Funding from Research Council (kNOK) Total for non-technical activities = kNOK 2,150 Activity 1,170 220 kNOK 13,550 The total expenditure charged to the funds provided by The Research Council of Norway is budgeted to be kNOK 13,550 in 2007. This is kNOK 1,550 more the annual funding provided to ICG. The shortfall is to be covered from the funds in 2008. Several of the PhD-candidates in ICG are expect to graduate in 2007 and 2008 and the costs associated with PhD-candidates will be reduced in the coming years. Given the momentum of ICG, and the convincing results obtained so far, a major challenge for ICG is complete its activities for an annual budget of 12 MNOK from RCN. For this reason, in the “Future Plans” (Part D) section of the report prepared by ICG for the midway evaluation, ICG has applied for an annual funding of 18 MNOK for the period 2008-2012. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\icg-annual_report4_2006.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: Annual Report - 2006 Appendix A – ICG Publications in 2006 Appendix A - 20031103-4 2007-03-31 A1 ICG Publications in 2006 f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appa_icg-publications.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Appendix A – ICG Publications in 2006 NOTE: Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 A2 ICG Publication numbers 1 – 114 are listed in the ICG Annual Reports for 2004 and 2005. Some earlier references missing in the previous lists are included below. 115. De Blasio, F.V. (in press) Levees creation in debris flows during vigorous dewatering. Geografia Fisica e Dinamica Quaternaria. 116. Pettenati, F., L. Sirovich, H. Bungum, and J. Schweitzer (2005) Source inversion of regional intensity patterns of five earthquakes from southwestern Norway. Bolletino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata, 46(2-3), 111-134. 117. Bungum, H. and Olesen, O. (2005) The 31st of August 1819 Lurøy earthquake revisited. Norwegian Journal of Geology, 85, 245-252. 118. De Blasio, F.V. Elverhøi, A., Issler, D, Harbitz, C.B., Bryn, P. and Lien, R. (2004) Flow models of natural debris flows originating from overconsolidated clay materials. Marine Geology. 213, 439-455. 119. Lastras, G., De Blasio, F.V., Canals, M., Elverhøi, A. (in press) Conceptual and numerical modelling of the BIG’95 debris flow, Western Mediterranean Sea. Journal of Sedimentary Research. 120. Leynaud, D., Mienert, J., & Nadim, F. (2004) Slope stability assessment of the Helland Hansen area offshore the midNorwegian margin. Marine Geology, 213, 457-480. 121. Cai, X., Pedersen, G., and Langtangen, H. P. (2005) A Parallel Multi-Subdomain Strategy for Solving the Boussinesq Water Wave Equations. Advances in Water Resources, 28 (3), pp 215-233. 122. Cai, X., Pedersen, G., Langtangen, H. P., and Glimsdal, S. (2005) Parallel simulation of tsunamis using a hybrid software approach. Proceedings of the ParCo2005 Conference, Malaga, Spain, 13-16 Sep 2005. 123. Jensen, A., Mayer, S., and Pedersen, G., (2005). Experiments and computation of onshore breaking solitary waves. Meas. Sci. Technol. 16, 1913-1920. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appa_icg-publications.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Appendix A – ICG Publications in 2006 Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 A3 124. Karlsrud, K., Bungum, H., Harbitz, C.B., Løvholt, F., Vangelsten, B.V., and Glimsdal, S. (2005) Strategy for re-construction in Thailand following the 26 December 2004 tsunami event. In: Chu, Phoon & Yong (eds): International Conference on Geotechnical Engineering for Disaster Mitigation & Rehabilitation. World Scientific Publishing Company ISBN 981-256-469-1. 125. Yang, S., Sandven, R. and Grande, L. (2006) Steady state lines of sand-silt mixtures. Canadian Geotechnical Journal 43: 1213-1219 126. Devoli, G., Morales, A., and Høeg, K. (2006) Historical landslides in Nicaragua – Collection and analysis of data. Landslides, DOI 10.1007/s10346-006-0048-x. Published online July 2006. 127. Solheim, A. (2006) Submarine mass movements and their consequences, 2nd international symposium: A short summary. Norwegian Journal of Geology, 151-154 128. Harbitz, C.B., Løvholt, F., Pedersen, G. & Masson, D.G.(2006) Mechanisms of tsunami generation by submarine landslides: a short review (2006): Norwegian Journal of Geology, Vol. 86, 249-258. Trondheim 2006. 129. Hansen, L., Eilertsen, R., Solberg, I.-L., and Rokoengen, K. (2007) Stratigraphic evaluation of a Holocene clay-slide in northern Norway. Landslides, DOI 10.1007/s10346-006-0078-4. Published online January 2007. 130. Løvholt, F., Bungum H., Harbitz, C.B., Glimsdal, S., Lindholm, C.D., Pedersen, G. (2006) Earthquake reltated tsunami hazard along the western coast of Thailand. Nat. Hazards earth Syst. Sci., 6, 1-19, 2006 131 Gauer, P., Kern, M., Kristensen, K., Lied, K., Rammer, L. and Schreiber, H. (2006) On pulsed Doppler radar measurements of avalanches and their implication to avalanche dynamics. Cold Region Science and Technology. 132. Devoli, G., Strauch, W., Chávez, G. and Høeg, K. (2007) A landslide database for Nicaragua: A tool for landslide hazard management Landslides, DOI 10.1007/s10346-006-0074-8. Published online January 2007. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appa_icg-publications.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG Appendix B - Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 B1 Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 B2 THE INTERNATIONAL EVALUATION COMMITTEE The interdisciplinary International Evaluation Committee was appointed by the Research Council of Norway on 3 July 2006. The members were: Professor Sten Grillner (Chair) Professor Cecilia Albin Professor Elena Anagnostopoulou Professor Bertil Nilsson Professor Preben Terndrup Pedersen Professor Randolph Richards Professor Colette Rolland Professor Gerold Wefer Professor Majorie Wilson The Nobel Institute for Neurophysiology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala Sweden Department of Philology, University of Crete, Rethymno, Greece Department of Religious Studies and Theology, Göteborg University, Göteborg, Sweden Department of Mechanical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK Centre de Recherche en Informatique, Université Paris Panthéon Sorbonne, Paris, France Marum, Bremen University, Bremen, Germany Earth Sciences, School of Earth and Environment, The University of Leeds, Leeds, UK In accordance with the procedure adopted for the evaluation process, the International Evaluation Committee received the background material for the evaluation prior to a meeting of the Committee in Oslo from 23 to 25 October 2006. During this meeting the Committee conducted hearings with representatives of the centres and their host institutions.) INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR GEOHAZARDS (ICG), NORWEGIAN GEOTECHNICAL INSTITUTE, OSLO The goal of the CoE has been to establish an environment for scientific and technological research on geohazards with the objective of reducing loss of life and damage to infrastructure and environment. The centre is hosted within the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and is a consortium of two private foundations (NGI and NORSAR), one government organisation (NGU) and two universities (University of Oslo (UiO) and Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim (NTNU). Structurally it operates as a “distributed centre” with a central office in Oslo (hosted within NGI) and satellite offices within each of the other partner organisations. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 B3 This appears to work well, providing access to a wide range of laboratory and other infrastructure resources. The ICG is one of only two Centres of Excellence located in a non-university setting. The centre does not have its own Administrative Officer but is fully supported by the Administration Division of NGI. Most of the PhD students from UiO work in the ICG central office. Research achievements at the time of evaluation The ICG has undoubtedly achieved a worldwide reputation as one of the leading international centres in geohazards research in its specialised field of landslides and rock avalanches. To some degree this reflects positively on the international standing of the host organisation, NGI. In this respect the ICG is close to achieving its original vision that “within 5 years (it will) be the world authority and premier research group on geo-related natural hazards onland and offshore”. Whilst the centre’s output of publications appear to be extremely good (averaging ~ 4 papers per year per researcher) it is clear that a significant proportion of the output is in the form of conference proceedings. In many respects this reflects the roots of the host organisation (NGI); this approach to publication is quite normal in the fields of engineering geology and geotechnics. Additionally a number of the publications listed appear to reflect the work of ICG researchers before the CoE was initiated. The milestones outlined in the original proposal lack explicit metrics against which the outcome of the first three years of research can be evaluated quantitatively. In general terms the programme of capacity building, research and its application appear to be on schedule. One aspect of the programme relating to tsunamis has actually been significantly expanded, reflecting the 2004 December 2004 disaster in Indonesia. The ICG is rapidly expanding the range of its international partners, which include both developed (e.g. Japan, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Netherlands, USA, Germany, Spain, UK) and developing (e.g. Nicaragua, El Salvador, India, Thailand) countries. Almost 50% of the staff is of overseas origin. The successful partnership with US organisations in an NSF-funded “offshore natural hazards” project ($ 2.4 million) may be regarded as a benchmark. There is also evidence of a high success rate in the EU 6th Framework Programme, attesting to the setting up of successful partnerships within Europe. Researcher training appears to be of a very high standard, particularly that delivered through the University of Oslo. Some 20 PhD students and 31 researchers were in post in 2006. Two Masters degree programmes have been established: Environmental Geology and Geohzards at UiO and Geotechnics and Geohazards at NTNU. These are going well and likely to attract increasing numbers of both home and overseas students. In general the centre has done well in attracting good foreign researchers, doctoral students, post-doctoral and senior researchers. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 B4 The centre appears to have established good industrial links, particularly with the Norwegian offshore oil and gas industry. Some of its research outputs have extremely important implications for civil protection authorities worldwide. Organisational and administrative aspects The leader of the CoE appears to have done an exceptionally good job in building up the centre. The organisation of the centre and its management structure are well planned and should be highlighted as a model for future Centres of Excellence. The organisational structure with a Director, Deputy Director and Board of Governors who oversee the work of theme coordinators and project managers is highly appropriate. The model adopted is a matrix form of management which is common in industry but much less so in the university sector. The leadership appears to be very strong which enhances both the national and international profile of the centre. The Board of Directors also acts as the Scientific Advisory Board. This appears to have worked well during the start-up phase but is perhaps less appropriate as the centre moves into a more mature phase of operations. The centre leaders recognise this in their self-evaluation report. The relationships with the host and partner organisations appear to be incredibly harmonious – far exceeding expectations. This is evidenced by the commitment that the ICG will continue beyond 2012 when its Research Council funding ceases. The ICG has contributed significantly to the strategic goals of NGI. It is difficult to evaluate the standard of the premises and equipment without actually seeing them. These appear to be as be excellent. Through its partner organisations the ICG has access to state-of-the-art experimental facilities. The issue of gender equality has been appropriately considered in the staffing of the centre. However, the fields of engineering geology and geotechnics do not typically attract many women. The fact that the Director of the host organisation, NGI, Dr Lacasse, is female sends out a good message. The centre appears to be doing very well (30% of researchers at ICG are female) in their recruitment of female scientists. Research plans for the future five-year-period During the first phase of activity the research emphasis has been on the basic understanding of geohazards and developing appropriate methods for the assessment of hazard and risk. In the second phase activities are planned to shift towards the development of methodologies to assist decision-makers in dealing with geohazard management. This will require the involvement of more staff whose basic training is within the field of social sciences and social policy. The ongoing research plan is ambitious but realistic within the likely funding limitations. It builds soundly on the activities of the first 5 years, aiming to intensify its public outreach programmes. The proposal for the second phase of activity includes development of a database of landslide hazards along with web-based tools for the evaluation of the impact of major f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 B5 landslides. These activities could substantially raise the international profile of Norway and Norwegian scientists as a “force for good”. As far as it is possible to judge based on the information provided, the research approach and methods appear to be appropriate. The ICG has been very smart in building strategic alliances with international partners to provide access to large-scale international facilities which do not exist in Norway (e.g. Cambridge Universitycentrifuge testing; University of Minnesota – flume tanks; Geotechnical Engineering office in Hong Kong - full scale model slopes). The centre already has international leadership in its specialist field of geohazards research relating to landslides. It also has the critical mass to make fundamental research contributions in this field. There is some question as to whether it has sufficient staff with appropriate experience of social sciences as it moves into more policy-related areas of research; this needs to be addressed. There are tremendous opportunities for Norway to take international leadership in the development of tools for hazard mapping and risk analysis (in the context of landslides and rock avalanches); these tools should be developed for application on local, regional, national and continent-wide scales. Clearly there are resource implications here; it would be a pity if the focus became entirely national. Based on the achievements of the ICG so far it seems clear that they have appropriate training and recruitment policies. These will need some further consideration as they start to change direction in the second 5 years of operation and need to bring in expertise in the field of social sciences/social policy. International collaboration is excellent and is set to expand. The centre is in a position to attract good researchers from abroad. Currently 50% of the research personnel come from overseas. Within the limitations of the available funding this is probably an appropriate balance. As the prestige of the centre grows more international scientists will wish to come there to work. A balance needs to be maintained between quality and quantity. Based on the available evidence the organisation of the centre will continue to translate into a high level of efficiency and good relations with the host institution and partners. Clearly if initiatives such as the Masters training programmes are to be expanded further then additional resources will need to be found Summary and Recommendations The performance of the CoE, thus far, appears to have been exceptionally good. More consideration perhaps needs to be given to the exchange of staff with other centres of excellence in geohazards research worldwide. The centre should aim to organise and host more international workshops and conference symposia to raise its international profile (though there clearly are budget limitations); they are already doing some good work in this respect. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc FNa/tha International Centre for Geohazards Annual Report - 2006 Appendix B – Results of Midway Evaluation of ICG Report No.: Date: Rev.: Rev. date: Page: 20031103-4 2007-03-31 B6 Publication in high ISI journals is one of the metrics by which research success is conventionally judged and this should be given greater priority in the future. Excerpts from the technical evaluation reports of ICG “The centre (ICG) has indeed achieved a worldwide reputation as one of the foremost research centres in geohazards.” “The ICG is uniquely poised to make fundamental contributions in basic research and also in applied hazard mitigation.” “The ICG has rapidly acquired a worldwide reputation, disproportional to its small size, location and budget.” “The list of the academic staff reads like the “Who is who” on the international platform.” “The head of the centre is performing exceptionally well, combining polished Frenchstyle manners with oriental tactfulness and Japanese efficiency.” “Dr Lacasse is a strong role model internationally for women in science.” “... the percentage of female researchers at all qualification levels is exceptionally high.” “The centre’s research training is of highest standard.” “The contact to industry is exceptionally strong.” “... the reviewer is impressed by the current organisational structure as well as by the evaluation of the scientific research, in particular in relation to the high level of efficiency and internal and external relation”. f:\p\2003\11\20031103\icg annual reports\2006-annual-report\appb_icg-midway_evaluation.doc FNa/tha Kontroll- og referanseside/ Review and reference page Oppdragsgiver/Client Dokument nr/Document No. The Research Council of Norway 20031103-4 Kontraktsreferanse/ Contract reference Dato/Date SFF – ICG 146035/420 2007-03-30 Distribusjon/Distribution Dokumenttittel/Document title International Centre for Geohazards – Annual report – 2006 Fri/Unlimited Prosjektleder/Project Manager : Begrenset/Limited Farrokh Nadim Utarbeidet av/Prepared by Ingen/None Farrokh Nadim Emneord/Keywords Land, fylke/Country, County Havområde/Offshore area Kommune/Municipality Feltnavn/Field name Sted/Location Sted/Location Kartblad/Map Felt, blokknr./Field, Block No. UTM-koordinater/UTM-coordinates Kvalitetssikring i henhold til/Quality assurance according to NS-EN ISO9001 Kontrollert av/ Reviewed by Kontrolltype/ Type of review Dokument/Document Revisjon 1/Revision 1 Revisjon 2/Revision 2 Kontrollert/Reviewed Kontrollert/Reviewed Kontrollert/Reviewed Dato/Date Dato/Date Dato/Date 2007.03.30 FNa Helhetsvurdering/ General Evaluation * SL Språk/Style SL Teknisk/Technical THa Utforming/Layout 2007.03.30 SL Slutt/Final 2007.03.30 Sign. Sign. - Skjønn/Intelligence - Total/Extensive - Tverrfaglig/ Interdisciplinary Kopiering/Copy quality * Gjennomlesning av hele rapporten og skjønnsmessig vurdering av innhold og presentasjonsform/ On the basis of an overall evaluation of the report, its technical content and form of presentation Dokument godkjent for utsendelse/ Document approved for release Dato/Date Sign. 30 March 2007 Sign.