Corporate Presentation October 2015

Corporate Presentation
October 2015
Executing the Strategy, Delivering the Plan
Giles Clarke – Chairman, John Wardle – Chief Executive Officer, Nick Harrison – Finance Director
www.amerisurresources.com – a Latin American Producer and Explorer
Disclaimer
Important Notice
These presentation materials do not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription or
any solicitation for any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall they or any part of
them form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment
whatsoever. No responsibility or liability whatsoever is accepted by any person for any loss
howsoever arising from any use of, or in connection with, these presentation materials or their
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
These presentation materials may contain forward-looking statements relating to the future
prospects, developments and strategies of Amerisur Resources plc (the "Company"), which are
based on directors' current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks
and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from
those expressed or implied in such statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of
the date of the particular statement and, except as required by law or regulations to which the
Company is subject, the Company disclaims any obligation to update any such forward-looking
statement to reflect future events or developments.
2
Summary
Executive Summary
•
Strong positive operating cashflow at lower prices
–
–
•
Positive operational catalyst
–
•
•
Operating cashflow $8.1m H1 2015
Q1 reorganisation strengthens cash generation and conserves balance sheet and future value
Ecuador pipeline interconnector – OBA – end 2015
•
Substantially reduces OPEX
•
Diversifies export options creating production growth and stability
Valuation upsides
–
Attractive prospects in Putumayo blocks – more of the same
–
Near term production and reserves adds in CPO-5
–
PUT-30 adds multi billion barrel resource play
–
Tacacho an attractive long term play
–
Transformational potential in Paraguayan exploration
Balance sheet strength
–
Zero debt. $55.6m cash as at 30 June 2015
–
No finance requirement but RBL facility in place
•
Capex program fully funded with good optionality
3
Amerisur in Summary
Asset Overview – Strong Land Position
Colombia
•
Producing field Platanillo located in the
Putumayo basin – only lightly explored
•
Exploration block Put-12 directly to east of
Platanillo (60% working interest)
•
Put-30 50% WI Heavy oil play northern
Putumayo basin
•
Tacacho – strategically located on heavy oil
trend
CPO-5 light-medium oil in Llanos – low risk,
near term, many prospects
•
H1 2015 Production of 4,524 BOPD – Pipeline
to Ecuador under development
•
1P field reserves 16.2MMBO, 2P reserves of
24.55MMBO*
•
Venezuela
FENIX
CPO-5
•
•
Caribbean Sea
Fenix block (100% working interest), in the
Middle Magdalena Basin to the North of
Colombia
COLOMBIA
PUT-30
Pacific
Ocean
Tacacho
PLATANILLO
Ecuador
PUT-12
Brazil
Peru
Net mean additional resources of 235
MMBO** in Platanillo and Put-12
*As at 31 December 2014** Net Unrisked Management Estimates
4
Amerisur Infrastructure
OBA – Strong Progress towards Delivery Q4
•
Construction works are almost complete at VHR
•
Upgraded pipe with special coating delivered from Tenaris Mexico
•
Only outstanding permit is on the Ecuadorian side, the area between the national boundary and VHR-20,
the first production pad in the Victor Hugo Ruales field – 1,200m. MAE (Ecuadorian Environmental
Ministry) has accepted terms of reference and study is underway – Not expected to impact critical path
5
Amerisur Infrastructure
OBA – Strong Progress towards Delivery Q4
6
Amerisur Infrastructure
OBA – Strong Progress towards Delivery Q4
7
Colombia – Platanillo Drilling
Platanillo – Summary of Future Upside
Lots of running room still to go
Area
Next Steps
Upside Potential
U sand Development
Infill and continued extension
to the north
Light oil, good production
rates, excellent reservoir
T sand Development
Dual completion once U sand
depletes or recompletion
Important prize , excellent
reservoir– tested and proven
Aligned with T sand activities
Smaller than T but can be
developed with T
N sand Appraisal &
Development
Seismic analysis and model
refinement
Estimated greater than
100MMBBL OOIP potential
Appraisal of North
Independent Closure
Platanillo North 3D seismic and Potential to add significant
possible drilling 2015
reserves
Appraisal of subsidiary
structures West
Libélula-1 suspended at
7,850ft - technical issues
Potential for another Platanillo
in the next fault trend
Northern section 3D seismic
Acquisition completed May
2015
Drill H2 2015 TBC
B sand Development
8
Amerisur in Summary
Asset Overview – CPO-5 – in the right neighbourhood
9
Amerisur in Summary
Asset Overview – CPO-5 – Loto Structure
Loto Structure – OOIP Analysis
AREA (acre)
NET PAY(ft)
n
Sw
Boi
OOIP (MMBBL)
950
61
0.17
0.31
1.186
44.46
10
Amerisur in Summary
Asset Overview
Paraguay
•
Transformational potential in Paraguay Extensive acreage position comprising two
E&P and three Prospecting permits
•
Active low cost exploration programme
continues – Seismic, Gravity, Aeromagnetics
•
Force majeure until May 2016
•
Jaguareté-1 Well 2016 - resources estimated
at 685 MMBO**
Bolivia
Curupayty E&P
PARAGUAY
Las Palmas
Permit
Brazil
Coronillo
Permit
Espartillar
Permit
San Pedro
E&P
Argentina
** Net Unrisked Management Estimates
11
Projection 2015
2015 Operating and Financial Plan
•
OPEX Optimisation
–
•
Temporarily trim production in the short term to remove higher lifting and transport costs
•
Quickly reversible in the event of sales price increase or further cost reduction
•
4700 – 4900 bopd until pipeline commissioned building to 5,000 bopd by end 2015
•
Field enhancements - Lifting Cost Reductions
Capex revision
–
One-off Pipeline costs $18MM – H2 2015
–
Exploration & Development CAPEX 2015 $25MM
•
Up to 3 wells in CPO-5, 1 well in Platanillo, seismic Put-12
•
Price Deck - $48/bbl average 2015
•
Forecast Gross Production – 2.22 MMBO Exit Production rate 5,000 BOPD pre-OBA
•
Year End cash position 2015 – approximately $40 - 45MM
•
Cash operating and transportation costs for Platanillo field to fall from $27 per barrel to approximately $16
once OBA interconnector pipeline is operational
12
Projection 2015
2015 CAPEX Breakdown
MM US$
OBA Interconnector and Facilities
$ 18
3 CPO-5 Wells or 1 CPO-5 well and 1 Platanillo well
$7.5
Put-12 2D Seismic (net)
$3
H1
$14.5
Total CAPEX 2015
$ 43
13
2016 Sensitivities
2016 CAPEX and EBITDA Sensitivities
•
EBITDA ($m)
Oil price assumption
Production (BOPD)
•
$45
$55
$65
6,000
$17
$31
$44
8,000
$26
$45
$61
10,000
$35
$57
$78
CAPEX (Assuming a mid point production of 8,000 bopd and average prices of $55
Put 12 3 wells
Put 30 Seismic
Paraguay I well
Plat N 2 wells
CPO5 3 wells
Total
$17m
$5m
$9m
$8m
$6m
$45m
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Summary
Summary – Maintaining profitability, preserving Upside,
focussed on delivery
•
Significant OPEX Reductions delivered
– Attractive netbacks even at reduced sales prices
– Preserving valuable reserves for lower cost production environment and / or higher oil prices
•
CAPEX Control
– Staged programme focussed on infrastructure and low risk drilling while building future inventory
through selective seismic
•
•
Continuing Significant Upside Potential fully funded
–
Highly attractive near term prospects in Colombian blocks
–
Ecuadorian pipeline, due to be operational in H1 2015, will allow substantial improvement in
production volumes and netback
Financial strength
–
Strong existing balance sheet, zero debt and $55.6m cash at H1 2015
–
First half EBITDA of $8.1m
15
Annexes
16
Projection 2015
Analyst Forecast Summary
NAME
HOUSE
Date
Rec
Target price
Core NAV
Total NAV
Daniel Slater
Arden
02.10.15
BUY
39
15
39
Sam Wahab
Cantor Fitzgerald
07.09.15
BUY
43
24.3
43
Ashley Kelty
Cenkos
28.09.15
BUY
46
23
86
Darren Engels
First Energy
29.09.15
OUTPERFORM
35
16
34
TBC
Goldman Sachs
15.05.15
BUY/ NEUTRAL
34
28
34
Brian Gallagher
Investec
28.09.15
BUY
25
15
25
Kate Sloan
Macquarie
09.09.15
NEUTRAL
37
30
63
James Carmichael
Peel Hunt
05.10.15
HOLD
26
22.5
34.6
Nathan Piper
RBC
28.09.15
OUTPERFORM
40
20
46
Craig Howie
Shore Capital
02.04.15
CORP
45
-
45
Robin Haworth
Stifel
07.09.15
BUY
35
28
41
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Platanillo – Evacuation Strategy
Moving Oil to Point of Sale – How OBA connects to the Ecuadorian System
Colombia
OBA
PLATANILLO
ORITO
Ecuadorian Oil
Gathering
System
“RODA”
Ecuador
Principal Oil
Export Pipelines
18
Platanillo – crossing the River Putumayo
Pipeline to Ecuador
Baseline
surveyed by
Amerisur
19
Platanillo Field
Static Modeling
“from surfaces to 3D grid ”
Grid 2015
Colombia – Platanillo Drilling
Upside Proven in T Sand
Platanillo-20 – 1,041 BOPD 38.3° API T Sand
U sand Horizon
T sand Horizon
21
Putumayo Basin: Put-12
Putumayo Basin: Put-12
COLOMBIA
Summary
• Amerisur 60% working interest and Operator
Ecuador
PLATANILLO
Peru
Brazil
PLATANILLO
Geology
• 55,000Ha – 5x bigger than Platanillo
• Similar geology to Platanillio
• 9 leads on the existing seismic with the
potential for 185 to 465 MMBO of gross
resources
PUT-12
PUT 12
22
Putumayo Basin: Put-12
Putumayo Basin: Put-12
COLOMBIA
Initial Drilling Focus:
•
Lead 1
–
Proximity and similarity to
Platanillo Field – P50 106MBO
•
Lead 6
–
Appears to be continuation of
Blanca Field in Ecuador – P50
47MBO
•
Lead 3
–
Trap door structure, large
area, potential Stratigraphic
component – P50 82MBO
Ecuador
Peru
PLATANILLO
Brazil
PLATANILLO
PUT-12
PUT 12
2
1
3
5
4
6
7
InforPetrol process
Stratigraphic leads not shown
23
Initial Platanillo Block
Platanillo Block
PUT 12 Block
Platanillo Field
Leads
Platanillo 3D North (50.2
Km²)
Exploitation Area
New 2D Seismic PUT 12 (271.5
Km)
Putumayo Basin: Put-12
Put-12 Resources – Latest Mapping (InforPetrol Process)
OOIP MMbls
Prospective Resources MMbls
Lead
Reservoir
P95
Mode
P05
Mean
P95
Mode
P05
Mean
Lead 1
U, M2, T
209.5
284.5
423.6
304.7
65.30
95.20
161.60
106.60
Lead 2
U
6.6
9.0
13.3
9.6
2.1
3.0
5.1
3.40
Lead 3
U
160.3
217.7
323.8
233.0
50.0
72.9
123.5
81.60
Lead 4
U, M2, T, N
12.7
17.0
25.0
18.1
3.9
5.6
9.6
6.3
Lead 5
U, M2, N
20.1
26.8
38.9
28.5
6.1
8.9
14.9
10.0
Lead 6
U, M2, T
134.6
184.1
277.7
198.0
28.4
41.7
72.0
47.1
Lead 7
U, M2
15.1
20.5
30.3
22.0
4.8
6.8
11.6
7.6
Lead 8
T
30.3
42.2
65.6
45.8
9.5
14.1
24.8
16.0
Lead 9
T
49.0
68.3
106.1
74.1
15.4
22.9
40.2
25.9
638.20
870.10
1,304.30
933.80
185.50
271.10
463.30
304.50
Total MMBO
25
Putumayo Basin: Put-30
Putumayo Basin: Put-30
•
•
•
•
•
Exploration block in the prolific Putumayo basin
50% WI over38,500 hectares (partner Talisman)
Cretaceous potential and recognized Tertiary play concept
Significant Heavy Oil Resource expected in Neme Sands
Low to medium exploration risk, high upside
Put-30
Platanillo
Put-12
26
Putumayo Basin: Put-30
Regional Setting
•
•
•
•
•
Exploration block in the prolific Putumayo basin
50% WI over38,500 hectares (partner Talisman)
Cretaceous potential and recognized Tertiary play
concept
Significant Heavy Oil Resource expected in Neme
Sands
Low to medium exploration risk, high upside
Source: Talisman
27
Putumayo Basin: Put-30
Wells in the Area
Source: Talisman
28
Paraguay Overview
Paraguay Overview
Our work suggests that all necessary conditions are present for a commercial hydrocarbon discovery
•
•
•
San Pedro
–
Coronel Oviedo, Lima, Santa Helena and
Cary potential reservoirs
–
460km 2D acquired
–
Jaguareté-1 exploration well in 2016
–
Unrisked Resources – 620MMBO
Western Blocks (Las Palmas, Coronillo and
Espartillar)
–
Yacoraite Fault Traps and Onlap (tilted
blocks and stratigraphic)
–
Interpreting 1590 km reprocessed 2D
seismic
Curupayty
–
Non Conventional potential in Los Monos
thick Devonian Shales
–
Under technical / economic review
Bolivia
Curupayty Permit
Brazil
Las Palmas
Permit
Paraguay
San Pedro
Permit
Coronillo
Permit
Espartillar
Permit
Argentina
29
Putumayo Basin
Putumayo Geology
PUTUMAYO BASIN
Seals - Villeta and
Rumiyaco shales
N Sand
Reservoirs in Villeta
Sands & Carbonates
Cretaceous Marine
Sediments
Source Rocks of Villeta Group
Cretaceous Marine Shales
30
Llanos Basin
CPO-5 Prospectivity
•
•
•
Structures are very similar
to Parex fields in Ll-34
and discoveries in the
Guatiquia block
Loto, Kamal and Metica
have been drilled and
showed oil columns and
production
Exploration
Commitments:
–
–
405km2 New 3D Seismic
405km2 3D is in excess
of the exploration
commitment of 250km2
One further exploration
well by Jan 2017 (9
month extension
Approved by ANH)
31