NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE Part 1

NATO TRANSFORMATION
FRAMEWORK for
FUTURE ALLIANCE
OPERATIONS
(FFAO)
NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE
INTRODUCTION
The Aim of FFAO is to:
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Provide Strategic Commanders’ best Military Advice on
how the Alliance might transform over the next 15 years.
Propose abilities that NATO may need to be successful
in the future security environment of 2030 and beyond.
NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE
CONTENT
What is FFAO?
Part 1. Explain the background behind
10 identified Instability
Situations
that could face NATO over the next 15 years.
Part 2. NATO’s Strategic
Military Perspectives.
Part 3. What are the Military
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act.nato.int/images/stories/media/doclibrary/ffao
Implications for NATO?
Part 1: BACKGROUND
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Long-Term Military Transformation (LTMT)
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Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA)
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Framework for Future Alliance Operations
act.nato.int/images/stories/media/doclibrary
act.nato.int/images/stories/media/doclibrary/ffao
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Part 1: THE CRYSTAL BALL
What does the
future hold?
blog.buddybet.com
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Part 1: THE CRYSTAL BALL
www.telegraph.com
Thebreakthrough.org
www.gamespot.com
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www.currentevents.poland
www.strainint.nl
Part1: SFA – 15 TRENDS
Natural Disasters
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Environmental / Climate Change
Part 1: INSTABILITY SITUATIONS
There are 10:
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Access to and use of the Global Commons Challenged
Conflict in the Euro-Atlantic Region
Disruptive Impact of Mass Migration
High-Impact Cyber Threat
Large-Scale Disaster
Mega-city Turmoil
Non-State Actors Rival State
Space Capability Disruption
State-versus-State Conflict
Weapons of Mass Destruction/Effect/Use/Threat
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www.habitat-utah.org
Part 1: THINKING EXAMPLES
Access and Use of Global Commons Challenged:
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Context
Main Contributing Trends
Who?
Why?
How (Ways and Means)
Where?
What is New in 2030?
www.saladehistoria.com
www.space.com
NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE
Part 1: THINKING EXAMPLES
Space Capability Disruption:
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Context
Main Contributing Trends
Who?
Why?
How (Ways and Means)
Where?
What is New in 2030?
go.galegroup.com
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Part 2
STRATEGIC MILITARY PERSPECTIVES
Five Focus Areas:
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Operational Agility
Security Networking
Shared Resilience
Strategic Awareness
Strategic Communications
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Part 2: OPERATIONAL AGILITY
‘The ability to respond effectively to dynamic, complex and
Uncertain Operational Challenges with appropriate,
flexible and timely responses’
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Requires Innovative and Creative Leaders
Needs Flexible, Tailorable, Robust and Interoperable Forces
An Ability to Assemble and Train Diverse Multinational Units
Importance of Education and Training
OUTCOME - focus Defence Planning on the development of
flexible units and creative leaders comfortable in situations
characterised by ambiguity, complexity and rapid change
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Part 2: SECURITY NETWORKING
‘Act in concert with state and non-state actors, to address future
security threats holistically to influence the security environment
through continuous interaction via physical and virtual presence’
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Merges, coordinates and builds upon ongoing NATO activities.
Pre-crisis relationship building with a range of partners.
Includes a variety of services – police and medical training,
electrical power, water or governing capacities.
OUTCOME – The Alliance will better contribute to coordinating and
merging efforts e.g. defence capacity building, security force
assistance, education, training, exercising and Strategic Communication.
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Part 2: SHARED RESILIENCE
‘Having sufficient capacity across the defence and security community
to provide a shared ability to endure adversity over time and recover
quickly from strategic shocks or operational setbacks’
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Complex environments: anti-access and area denial capabilities (A2AD).
Threat to Core Tasks less foreseeable - surprise, strategic shock.
Encompasses structures, systems and processes.
Sustainment: civilian and military authorities’ coordination.
OUTCOME – More than just Redundancy in critical systems, it requires
an adaptive mindset to overcome changing circumstances to be
delivered by education, training and exercising.
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Part 2: STRATEGIC AWARENESS
‘An opportunity to increase Alliance cohesion through a shared
assessment of current and future challenges and to allow timely
alignment of military planning with political intent’
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Continuous monitoring of the sources of instability – data rich.
Early recognition of impending issues.
Continued focus on intelligence.
OUTCOME – Leverage new and emerging technologies to enhance
data analysis and then blend with traditional intelligence in a
Combined NATO Intelligence Fusion Centre to anticipate crises and
expand the decision time for Senior Leaders.
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Part 2: STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION
‘To place information and communication at the heart of all levels
of policy, planning and implementation and ensuring that they are
a fully integrated part of the overall effort’
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Coordinated use Public Diplomacy, Military Public Affairs,
Information Operations and Psychological Operations.
Identify and understand audiences in traditional and social media.
OUTCOME - Proactively influence the security environment through
a coordinated narrative, combined with the continuous analysis of
media channels to adapt and gain messaging initiative.
NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE
Part 3
MILITARY IMPLICATIONS – not defined
requirements, nor are they expressed as required capabilities:
efficiencies in scale, effects, performance and cost.
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Prepare
Project
Engage
Sustain
Command and Control (C2)
Protect
Inform
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Part 3 - PREPARE
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Cooperation with Security
Partners
Comprehensive Approach
Scalable and Modular
Creative use of Human
Resources
Training and Exercises
Best Practices
Mission Command
NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE
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Leader Development
Human Factors
Urban Operations Training
Integrated Cyber
Operations
ROE / Military Authorities
Acquisitions and
Procurement
Part 3: PROJECT
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Mounting
Deployment and
Redeployment
Reception and
Staging
Basing
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Part 3 : ENGAGE
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Joint Manoeuvre
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Joint Fires
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Enhanced Manoeuvrability, Cyber
Manoeuvrability, Rapid Response
Enhanced Firepower, Kinetic Operations,
Unmanned and Autonomous Systems
www.rcaf-arc.forces.gc.ca
Joint Influence
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Cyber Influence, Cyberspace Engagement,
Comprehensive Approach
ulifelinecounselorconversations.com
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Part 3: SUSTAIN
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Innovative Supply and
Minimised Logistic
Footprint
In Theatre Movement and
Transportation
Standardisation
Diversification and Impact
of Logistics
Future Force Sustainment
NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE
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Sea Basing and
Resupply from the
Sea
Military Engineering
Networked
Sustainable Medical
Support
Medical Support in
Geographically
Dispersed Locations
Part 3: Command and Control
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Future C2 Systems
Future Decision Making
Partner Integration and C2
Reduced Organisational
Footprint
Integrated C2
Communications
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www.combuilder.com
Part 3: PROTECT
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Counter Area Denial
Lines of Communication
Expeditionary Force Protection
and Base Defence
Extended Protection
Unmanned Systems
Swarm Techniques
Protection from Surface and Subsurface Threats
Integrated Air and Missile Defence
NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE
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Protection from GBAD
and IAD
Defence against Guided
Rocket Artillery Mortars
and Missiles
Ballistic Missile Defence
Defence from Space
Weapons
Protection from WMD/E
Environmental and
Hazzard Protection
Part 3: INFORM
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Collection
Analysis
Broad Mapping
psichelink.it/2016/01/0
www.institute-for-competitive-intelligence.com
NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE
SUMMARY
FFAO
Analysing, Thinking, Recognising,
Adapting and Implementing Change
to Meet the Range of Contemporary
and Future Security Challenges
www.act.nato.int/images/stories/media/doclibrary/ffao-2015.pdf
NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE
NATO TRANSFORMATION
FRAMEWORK for
FUTURE ALLIANCE
OPERATIONS
(FFAO)
NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE