Dia 1 - Trade Marketing Association

Transcription

Dealing with
crisis.
Spotting the red thread of our near future.
PIM Marketing Trend Report 2010
By Peter Gouw
Publisher: Platform Innovatie in Marketing
May 25th , 2010
Price per report 95,- euro incl. VAT
Free copy for PIM Members
Editors:
Egbert Jan van Bel
Prof. dr. Rudy Moeneart
Prof. dr. Henry Robben
Hans Molenaar
Arend-Jan Nijhuis
Jan Havermans
What’s not…
No detailed or hot lists
No interviews of visionaries
No good feeling story
3
Fact based realism
3x Trends 1x Case




Setting the Scene
Market
Marketing
Burning / freezing
Joint translation of trends
into a Business Case
With help from many
Trend Watching friends!
Who offers Value for money
to their customers?
SETTING THE SCENE • MARKET TRENDS • MARKETING TRENDS • WHAT’S HOT/COLD • CASE • NEXT
5
Give me a reason to
Apple Tablet
buy!
6
Reforming marketing
Vague marketing goals
Beautiful crisis
Old school marketing
When is the crisis over?
Crisis challenge
Customers power
Outperform competition
Marketing vision 2010
Marketing 101
7
The same customer has utterly different
profiles for different needs.
NO WHAT
NO €OMPROMISE
Winning Marketing Strategy 2010
8
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The future is always too late
Is progress always too late or too early?
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TOO EARLY
Added value
Innovation
New applications
Sense for trends & timing
Old vs. new school marketing
Trail or research?
JUST DO IT (customer interaction)
Crisis is Greek for CHOICE (they have to make some bold ones!!).
We are now at our best!
Egbert Jan van Bel
9
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‘By gones’ are ‘by gones’
Learn from the past
Tapping the right source
Extract trend knowledge
Fact based
Translate (CUSTOMER & YOU)
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Real customer needs oriented
Big can be good
Strong is always good
10
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Huge crisis
£¥€$ 4x > World War II
‘Outperforming’ all other trends
Will stay dominate in 2010
Finding the Red Thread
Focus – Make Choices
Result of you!
Multiply
&
FUN
11
The current crisis is
our own Real Life Soap
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Big & small in trouble
Will you be next?
Why not?
Sense of urgency  trends
There will always be crises
Huge coaching responsibility
Opportunities 2010
12
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Even banks
Cash is King
Private funding
Investment – ‘sit on it’
30% households feel the crisis
70% households not
king features syndicate Mike Smith
0 - 10%
Growth
level

>50% companies -10% or more
sales loss
2009/2010
vs. 2008
>10%
0%
-10 - 0%
> -10%
0
10
20
30 % of 40
companies
Moenaert, Robben & Gouw
13
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Consumer Key Indicators
Emotional (over)reactions
Why so sensitive?
Hard facts
Willingness to buy
‘Of course’ better than 2009
2000 - 2010
40
20
0
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010
-20
-40
-60
-80
Consumer Confidence
Economic Climate
Willingness to Buy
Consumer Confidence forecast
Economic Climate forecast
Willingness to Buy forecast
Manufacturer Confidence
2000 - 2010
30.0
20.0
Follow which
leader?
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
Manufacturer Confidence
Manufacturer Confidence mutation i.c.w. 1 year earlier
Manufacturer Confidence forecast
Manufacturer Confidence mutation i.c.w. 1 year earlier forecast
14
Unemployment Rate
2000 - 2010
8
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7
Unemployment & Oil
Euro – Dollar – Pound
Greece + Spain + …
Total American Debt
= 57 Trillion
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010
Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate forecast
Oil (North Sea Brent) dollar per barrel
2006 - 2010
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2006-1
2006-27
2007-1
2007-27
2008-1
Oil forecast
Dollar versus Euro
2008-27
2009-01
2009-27
2010-01
2010-27
2010-01
2010-27
Oil (North Sea Brent) dollar per barrel
2006 - 2010
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2006-1
2006-27
2007-1
2007-27
Koers Dollar-Euro
2008-1
2008-27
2009-01
Koers Dollar-Euro (high)
2009-27
Koers Dollar-Euro (low)
DNB – CBS
Oilnergy – GfK
15
2007
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
After shock effects
Investing in the economy?
Lack of money!
Just survive good enough?
Mediocrity
Break the pattern, dare
2008
2009
2010
Square root development
16
Supermarket Sales
Total Market (2006 - 2010)
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
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300,000
Learn from other markets
FMCG +3%  2010: +1-1,5%
Discounters +2,5%
Private Label +3%
A-Brands -1%
Is cheaper BETTER?
200,000
100,000
W 1 2006
W 27 2006
W 1 2007
W 27 2007
W 1 2008
W 27 2008
W 1 2009
Total supermarkets
W 27 2009
W 1 2010
W 27 2010
Total supermarkets forecast
Supermarket Sales
Aldi / Lidl (2006 - 2010)
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
W 1 2006
W 27 2006
W 1 2007
W 27 2007
W 1 2008
W 27 2008
W 1 2009
Aldi / Lidl
W 27 2009
W 1 2010
W 27 2010
W 1 2010
W 27 2010
Aldi / Lidl forecast
Supermarket Sales
Private Label (2006 - 2010)
350,000
300,000
NOT HAPPY: TAKE ACTION
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
W 1 2006
W 27 2006
W 1 2007
W 27 2007
W 1 2008
W 27 2008
W 1 2009
Private Label
W 27 2009
Private Label forecast
GfK
17
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Will grow in 2010
Feel pressure in 2010
1. Chemicals
1. Agriculture
2. FMCG
2. Automotive, transport & storage
3. Health care
3. Banks & Insurance
4. Military
4. Culture, art and entertainment
5. Minerals, natural resources
5. Housing and building construction
6. Native tourism
6. Out-of-Home sector (incl. conventions)
7. Online shopping
7. Print media
8. Pharmacy
8. Ministry of Finance
9. Road construction
9. Service and consultancy
10. Software (gaming, e-Learning)
10. Travelling (business), foreign tourism

ZZP pain
18
76
Financial crisis:
value in billion 2007 vs. 2009
116
10
35
255
108
120
33
5
19
116
215
64
97
Bloomberg
19
We all make mistakes
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Construction companies
Sales
Workforce
Dumping competitors
Commissioners risk
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Road construction
 Think ahead (2012)
20
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Regulations
Model citizen – companies
(Joop Goos - VVN)

Cradle to cradle
21
More than 50% of the managers think that
by the end of 2010 the crisis will be over.
After 2015
2014
2013
2012
2nd half of 2011
1st half of 2011
2nd half of 2010
1st half of 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
22
Which processes require the most change?
CRM change focus grows from 41% in 2007 to 53% in 2009 due to the crisis.
New product/service …
Strategic partnering and alliances
Market sensing and intelligence
Customer relationship …
Selling and communications
Strategic planning
Service delivery
Human resource management
Managing brand equity
ICT-implementation
Technology development
Operations/Manufacturing
Selecting target markets
Pricing
Channel relationship management
Logistics
Order fulfillment
Channel design
Procurement/vendor selection
Control
Finance/resource allocation
0%
20%
40%
60%
23
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Customer intimacy 2009
Real Customer Focus
 CARE
24
Find new fields to play on!
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60% investment
Cost before innovation
Small is more successful
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70% incremental
30% strategic
25
World top brands
Company
Value
26
CEO of the year 1999
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Customer driven
Bigger: human limits
9 minutes!
Downsizing
Being powerful
27
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Co-operations (real deal – no fake)
We customers love it
Red ocean – rat (flies) race
Be first in your market
Sustainable
28
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50% live in cities
Must be smarter
IT driven solutions
Energy
e-Learning
29
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Customer at the centre (KOTLER!)
 Understanding
 Segmenting
 Value proposition
 Delivering value
 Promise
 Growth AGENDA
 CLAIM marketing position
Kotler
30
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Gartner, Forrester, McKinsey, IBM,
my boss or my friend told me I need it
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FACT BASED
Attitude change
Serious marketing
Non-value adding costs
Stable metrics
Simple
Get taken serious
31
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Unprofitable customers
Screaming for sales
New customers – demanding customers
Dare to cut costs
 Unprofitable segments
 Unprofitable locations
 Unprofitable products / services
Return on Marketing (ROM)
Kotler
32
SUSTAINABILITY
Business Roadmapping
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Big issues world wide
Time for sustainability
 Balanced world
 Costs & Benefits new level
Don’t grow for the sake of growth
 Cancer
Consumption with borders
Business roadmap
Translating customer needs!
33
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It’s there
Younger generation
 Recruit them
Power networks
 Get pushed
 Or push yourself
34
Future of shopping
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Traditional vs. new school marketing
Generations
Baby Boomers
Generation X
The Net Generation
Generation Next
Born:
’46 – ’60
’65 – ’76
’77 – ’97
’98 – present
Age
50+
34+
13+
0+
The Generation C
’90 – Present
0-19
New brains
Generation C = digital natives
35
Innovation
Freedom
Speed
Eight Net
Generation
Norms
Collaboration
Entertain
-ment &
fun
Customization
Scrutinize
Integrity
LOOK POSITIVE TO THIS GENERATION – TRY TO UNDERSTAND THEM
Give me
the
latest
Choice:
more is
better
Godzilla,
tuner
cars
iPhone
can read
bar
codes
It does
change
things…
Check
before
you buy!
Lego
designs
Edutainment
Be
honest
36
Financial
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Bankruptcy
Cash flow rules
Consolidation (bargains in the market for sale)
Instantaneous gratification
Lack of investment willingness
Lay-offs (hidden unemployment)
Losses
Profitability
Reduce operating costs (enabling new strategies)
Stock picking instead of index stock investments
Commercial
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Accessible exclusive design (Jimmy Choo – H&M)
Customer focus (retention – churn – loyalty – new)
Desperate for sales
Heavy discounts (less than half price)
Joint promotions
Price sensitivity (consumer conditioning)
Response time
Saving on media expenditures
Store loyalty
Survival, very short term focus
Others
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Government investments
Downsizing
Education
Hybrid
Intelligent stick for blind people
Knick ice skate
Low employee switching
Physical appearance
Property rent based on fixed and sales part
World cup 2010 South Africa
All red items are relevant to the Albert Heijn case
37
Strategy
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Analytical culture (competing on analytics)
Board whisperer
Core competence
Everything with ‘integrating’ (data, intelligence)
Everything with ‘multi’ (channel, tasking)
Mergers & acquisitions
No €ompromise (new business models)
Partnering
Sensible growth
Sustainable business executing
Social
Environment
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Age less, time less and peer less
Crime due to bad economy
Culture & religious issues / distrust
Fair trade
Government regulations (cradle to cradle)
Pensions - retirement age
Population: green vs. working vs. gray balance
Restless young people
Security
Sustainability (environment, logistics, production)
Marketing
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Brand activation
Growing diversity of consumer groups
Marketing Metrics (accountability)
Passion, passion to serve
Permission based direct marketing
Personal touch (CRM people)
Real customer focus (virtual guardian angel)
Sharp Customer Value Propositions
Social media
There is No Such Thing as a Commodity
Market
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
24/7 openings (e-tailers)
A-Brands loosing territory (only nr 1 and 2 is OK)
Fresh & chilled products (image and volume)
Going out to eat ‘at home’
Private Label and Discounters gaining territory
Professional interim management
Real food, lesser big portions and more vegetables
Resource issues
Simplicity
Trade down of channels, assortment and brands
Consumers
Employees
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Co-creation (for you, by you )
Consume less
Convenience
Customer experience
Customer pull
Involving customers in decision process
Social networking
The essence
Where do I belong?
Working at your 'home office’
Internet
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Cloud Computing
Crowd sourcing
e-book and e-readers grow
e-Software (e-Learning & e-Gaming)
Internet TV
SEA Search Engine Advertising
Sensitive technology
Virtual shopping, wherever, whenever and whatever
Web n+1
Windows 7
38
Totally
Not
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Bonus
Business cards
Car roadmaps
Consultancy
Criminals visiting home
Fast growth (unless you are China)
Fax machine
Flip flops
Growth for the sake of growth
Happy few
Home phone / ADSL
Lover boys
Manager holding back on change
Mass production
Old school advertising
One size fits all
Paper based voting (but…)
See and be seen
Shop ‘til you drop
Single use batteries
Space shuttle ($30 mil.)
SUV's
Telephone boxes
Twitter
Window dressing
39
Keep
on
Dreaming
1
Strong growth of bio products
2
Bankers and 'normal' bonuses
3
Bio products become as cheap as regular products
4
Fair trade
5
No more across the board cost cuts
6
No more illegal (music) downloads
7
One trade mark logo for health products
8
The end to obesities
9
Transparency, real trust in bankers
10
World cup goes to the Dutch
And also not:
Men understanding women
All around women friendly companies
40
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Akio Morita
Anita Roddick
Bill Gates
Charles Lazarus
Charles Schwab
Colonel Saunder
Frank Purdue
Fred Smith
Gilbert Trigano
Honda
Howard Schultz
Ingvard Kampard
Karl-Johan Persson
Les Wexner
Luciano Bennetton
Michael Dell
Moynihan
Ray Kroc
Richard Branson
Sam Walton
Simon Marks
Steve Jobs
Ted Turner
Thomke/Sprecher
Robert A. Iger
Sony
Body Shop
Microsoft
Toys R Us
Charles Schwab
Kentucky Fried Chicken
Purdue Chicken
Federal Express
Club Mediterranee
Honda
Starbucks
IKEA
Hennes & Mauritz
The Limited
Benetton
Dell Computer
Domino’s Pizza
McDonald’s
Virgin
Wal*Mart
Marks & Spencer
Apple
CNN
Swatch Watch Company
Disneyworld
41

Something of being
average is not good enough
anymore to make profit
(have a future)
But as customer I could be
happy with a VFM!
If you hang in the back of the group,
than you don’t see what is happening
up-front. You don’t see the new trends
on time and you can get surprised on
every turn and fall…
42
Winning concept


Be different, be the best
Double strong
hi
g
h
Average Airlines
relative level

Car
Transport
Southwest
lo
w
43

NO €OMPROMISE strategy
2010
2009
2008
2007
44
The match of the day: Albert Heijn vs. Jumbo
What would be the most sensible (marketing) reaction of Albert Heijn
(AH) to the latest developments of Jumbo, based on the trends of 2010,
market opportunities and AH’s competences? Take into account that AH
earns 60% of all supermarket profits in The Netherlands (Rabo
Securities), YES 60%!
Setting the scene
Jumbo has taken over Super de Boer (SdB) and changed their purchase
partner, goodbye Super-Unie, well hello C1000! You can imagine they
will have a stronger internal orientation than usual this year.
1. Decide which locations to keep, which will go to C1000.
2. They must transfer their family tradition and vision of no nonsense, quick common
sense decision-making to the hearts and minds of all their personnel (those in the
headquarters as well as those in the retail outlets) and of the retail outlets.
3. Head office employees of SdB have to deal with their new boss despite that they
already have been pushed around a lot lately. Will there be a brain drain of their
best people?
4. In the SdB outlets, the local culture and attitudes must be shaped. Go for the 7
‘challenges’ of Jumbo (the No-€ompromise strategy).
5. Harmonising purchase sounds easy but is a hell of a job if you have to do it.
6. Logistic changes (warehousing) have to be made, and much more!
7. Make profit to enabling financing new plans and to pay off depts.
The consumer will notice these changes. And not all will go smoothly. Is
this a time for AH to sit and enjoy life or to strike hard and hurt Jumbo?
In many markets there are similar cases to
build. We have chosen for an all round case in
an all round market. Hope you can forgive us.
Next year B2B case.
45
There is more to the challenge than meets the eye. Jumbo must also
deal with the fact that the whole market is always on the move.
Clearly, they are now top of the bill. However, a year of internal focus
can vaporize this position. It will be a hell of a ride.
What do you think AH is doing now?
1.
2.
Lately, they have prepared themselves to enable a No€ompromise strategy too, by means of cost cutting and
operational excellence.
They are fully aware that innovation at the front is essential where they meet the consumers’ eyes.
Of course, being the market leader, they focus on communicating their
market power. Clearly, they don’t want to be run over by Jumbo (nor
C1000) in the near future. AH’s tactics are thoughtfully aimed at the
new consumer. Influencing price perception in combination with
experience marketing - shops, taste and quality - they intend to offer a
winning customer value proposition. They are ready, the formula is in
good shape, and AH has the power, passion, guts and focus to give
some ‘whoopee’ to the new competition on the radar screen. But the
big question is, is this the cleverest way?
Should they attack, what do you think?
What do stock holders want?
46
The successful CEO of AH, Dick Boer, wished his competitors
‘good luck’ on December 23rd (source: NOS). We know what that
means. Another price fight is bound to emerge. The consumers will
benefit from this - at least in the short run s/he can expect to spend
less. Window dressing time is over! The consumer is well-informed
and fully aware of where the best deals are. And of course, other
marketing-mix elements (service , quality) will be hot in 2010 too,
but in a No-€ompromise combination. Has AH done enough in the
previous three years - lowering prices, cost cutting, improving
service, increasing assortment, strengthening promotions,
focusing on fresh and chilled food, collaborating with
manufacturers, introducing Private Labels, constantly innovating emerge from this battle as the winner? AH thinks so. Please take
into account that the expected FMCG retailer’s sales growth in
2010 will be 1,5% and all the big guns are looking for (a lot) more!
A war is not far away.
The
crying
game
The industry is always in the grip of
its dumbest competitor.
Your action can / will lead to a reaction by your competitor, it’s
better known as the crying game. The other is always to blame,
never me!
Robert Crandall
former CEO of
American Airlines
1992
47
Where to push AH’s Competitive Advantage in 2010?
1.
2.
3.
4.
Product / Service (what do you offer?)
Customer Process (How, where do you offer?)
Price (What are the costs to the customer?)
Image (What do you represent?)
Push hard, outperform
Push as hard as main competitor
Push market average
Performance of AH on Core Processes in the Value Chain?
Where is AH better than the competition?
1. Managing brand equity
2. Customer relationship management
3. Service delivery
4. Selecting target markets
5. Selling and communications
6. Strategic planning
7. Logistics
8. Channel relationship management
9. Market sensing & intelligence
10. Control
11. Strategic partnering & alliances
12. Human resource management
13. Pricing
14. New product / service development
15. Procurement / Vendor selection
Push below market average
AH is far better than competition
AH is better than competition
AH is equal to competition
AH is less than competition
How would you
take on the market in 2010?
48
Where to push AH’s Competitive Advantage in 2010?
1.
2.
3.
4.
Product / Service (what do you offer?)
Customer Process (How, where do you offer?)
Price (What are the costs to the customer?)
Image (What do you represent?)
Your Opinion
Push hard, outperform
Push as hard as main competitor
Push market average
Performance of AH on Core Processes in the Value Chain?
Where is AH better than the competition?
1. Managing brand equity
2. Customer relationship management
3. Service delivery
4. Selecting target markets
5. Selling and communications
6. Strategic planning
7. Logistics
8. Channel relationship management
9. Market sensing & intelligence
10. Control
11. Strategic partnering & alliances
12. Human resource management
13. Pricing
14. New product / service development
15. Procurement / Vendor selection
Push below market average
AH is far better than competition
AH is better than competition
AH is equal to competition
AH is less than competition
MARKET TRENDS • MARKETING TRENDS • WHAT’S HOT/COLD • COMPETING • ABOUT PIM
How would you
take on the market
in 2010?
49
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
Life is not simple
Hard to make right decision
Competitive intelligence (whole field)
Only one can be lowest
Profit sensitivity
Price war ? Shakeout ?
Realistic
Master the game of trends
Win & future profits
Profit enables investing
Beating the competition long term
That is the real winning strategy in a
turbulent 2010:
Sharp-edged and No-€ompromise.
We want it all!
50
What are your Take Aways?




Made to Stick Take Aways
LET US KNOW YOUR VISION!
We will do good deeds with it.
Electronic update.
It can only become better in 2010.
Use these new insights, trends in your advantage
to make your business better and go for the
DO IT part.
Are you PIM trend watcher material?



Share your trend knowledge.
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database.
More trend reports.
51
Co-creators, we can’t thank them enough for
their input, articles, presentations, theory,
suggestions, remarks, discussions, and last
but not least, inspiration.
Ad Gorisse
Ad Honders
Adrienne Koreman
Anton Nieuwenhuis
Anton Peeters
Bert Keizer
Birgitte de Leeuw
Christophe Renders
Clive van Heerden
Collette Cloosterman-van Eerd
Durk Bosma
Edward Groenland
François van Heurn
Frank van der Wal
Frits van Eerd
Gerda Verburg
Hans Eysink Smeets
Heleen Kamerman
Jack Mama
Jack van Beek
Jamie Taylor
Jan Peter Balkenende
Jan Willem Cornelisse
John Caslione
Joop Holla
Joost Mutsaers
Kiliaan Toornaar
Larry Lucardie
Lucien van der Hoeven
Maarten van Lit
Malcolm McDonald
Marit Oosenbrug
Mark Bieckmann
Mark McKoen
Michael Hodges
Michael Porter
Mike Smith
Neno Peschl
Peter Oosterling
Philip den Ouden
Philip Kotler
Phillipe Smit
Pim van Geest
Remko Vogelenzang
René Repko
René van Leeuwen
Richard Herbert
Sam Sonke
Sidney Beesemer
Steven den Hartog
Tom de Vogel
Twafik Jelassi
Willem Middelkoop
Wouter Bos
Sources we gratefully used to do fact
finding, verification and explanation.
Academic network Nyenrode
Academic network TiasNimbas
Adformatie
AIECE
Apple
Bloomberg
BNR Radio
Capgemini
CBL
CBS
Clou
CNN
Cool Brands
CPB
DBMI
Distrifood
DNB
EFMI
EIM
Europanel
Financieel dagblad
FNLI
Foodmagazine
FoodService Instituut Nederland
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GfK Alumni
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ING
Itcommercie
Kentens
LMBS
Management Team
Marketing Results
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MSN powered by PIM
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Rabobank
Reed Business
RTL
SCP
Second Sight
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SuperMarkt Actueel
TNS Nipo
Trend Hunter
VMT
Y&R
And many more!
52
We would like to express our gratitude to our sponsors.
Their support, enthusiasm, knowledge contribution and
long term commitment PIM has developed into a great
platform for more than 1.000 marketing lover. Enjoying on
a regularly base each others company, challenging visions
and opinions.
Hans Molenaar
Chairman PIM
In behave of the whole PIM board.
It is not the strongest of species that
survive, nor the most intelligent, but
the one most responsive to change.
Charles Darwin
Design & visual
support:
Christiaan Spelmink
www.mediaexposure.eu
Insanity is doing the same thing
and expecting the same result.
Albert Einstein
53
?
18th
Century
1900
1950
1970 1980 1990 2006
2010
And sometimes beyond our imagination!
54

Dia 1 - Trade Marketing Association

Transcription

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