The Cornerstone of the Next Cycle Connecting the Eurasian Continent

Transcription

Minetek Expo , Toronto, Oct 29, 2015
Oct 29, 2015
Toronto
Century Global Commodities Corporation
MineTek Expo &
Conference
The Cornerstone of the Next Cycle
Connecting the Eurasian Continent
Rebecca Ng, CFO
1
Why Infrastructure?
The Model: From Infrastructure to
Economic Development
The Belt and Road
What it Means for Metals
Minetek Expo, Toronto, Oct 29, 2015
AIIB & Eurasian Partnership, Why?
Agenda
2
Australia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Bangladesh
Brazil
Brunei
Darussalam
Cambodia
China
Denmark
Egypt
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Iran
Israel
Italy
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Korea, Rep.
Kuwait
Kyrgyz
Republic
Lao PDR
Luxembourg
Malaysia
Maldives
Malta
Mongolia
Myanmar
Nepal
Netherlands
New Zealand Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Russian
Federation
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sweden
Switzerland
South Africa
What do we know that these 60 founding members don’t?
Or what do these 60 founding members see that we miss?
AIIB- Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
3
Tajikistan
Thailand
Turkey
United Arab
Emirates
United
Kingdom
Uzbekistan
Vietnam
Hong Kong
SAR, China
Photo by Takaki Yajima/AP
Comments from Key Founding Members:
UK’s Prime Minister, David Cameron : “it’s in the UK’s national interest (to join AIIB)”
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble: “"We want to bring our long experience... to
help the bank build a solid reputation,“ (4th largest member with U$930M planned capital)
Australia’s Treasurer, Joe Hockey: “(It) has been encouraging for Australia to know that (the
Bank) truly is a global organization.”, (5th largest member with U$700m planned capital)
 Initial capital of US$50B to be increased to
US$100B
 A multilateral development bank formed in
October 2014
 Focus on infrastructure development and other
productive sectors in Asia
 57 founding members from Asia, Middle East,
Africa, Europe and South America
 Articles signed in Sept 2015 and open for further
membership until Dec 2015, 70 members
expected
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
4
66% of World Population, 56% of World GDP & 50% of World Trade
2014 GDP (billion USD)
Total: US$44,512B (56% of the world)
2014 Population (millions)
Total: 4,942M (66% of the world)
Middle East
America
Oceania
Western Europe
17,259
Asia (excl.
China)
2,722
Oceania
Africa
America
Middle East
Asia (excl. China)
10,272
China
10,067
In the Region
Outside the Region
China
1,364
China
Middle East
Africa
Western Europe
Western
Europe
429
Asia (excl. China)
Oceania
America
Source: UNCTAD, World Bank, AIIB
Africa
AIIB Founding Member Dynamics:
5
International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde has said the
IMF would be "delighted" to co-operate with the China-led Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Ms. Lagarde said there was
"massive" room for IMF co-operation with the AIIB on
infrastructure financing.
Asian Development Bank President Takehiko Nakao expressed a
willingness to use “our long experience and expertise in the region”
to promote its cooperation with the AIIB and acknowledged the
need to remove “the large infrastructure gap” in Asia to support
sustainable development and poverty reduction.
Dr. Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank calls the AIIB and its
fellow start-up, the BRICS-backed New Development Bank,
“potentially strong allies” for the World Bank that could become
“great new forces” to help the world’s poor. He pledged to quickly
find ways to collaborate with the new institutions.
Cooperation with WB, IMF & ADB
6
•
Oct 2015 President Xi JinPing’s visit to the UK marked the
beginning of the Golden Decade, said UK Prime Minister, David
Carmeron
•
£44 billion economic partnership between the two opposite
ends of the Eurasian landmass, including high-speed rail in the
UK
•
Overcoming political barrier, creating conditions for renewed
growth
Photo / Source: Post Western World
2015 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting
•
an organization led by China to include almost all the postSoviet central Asian states (e.g. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzberkistan), promoting trade in the regionNew Silk Road
•
Trade increased from U$1.8b in 2000 to U$50bn in 2013
•
Declaration signed between Russia and China on cooperation
between Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road
project in May 2015
SINO-BRITISH Partnership
Eurasian Partnerships……strengthening AIIB
7
Photo / Source: Financial T
2013 IntraEuropean trade:
US$4.6T (2000:
US$1.65T)
When
connected
Huge trade
expansion
potential
2013 Intra-Asian
trade: US$3.1T
(2000: US$ 807B)
2013 Asian
export to Europe: US$ 855B
(2000: US$ 322B)
2013 European
export to Asia: US$ 667B
(2000: US$ 199B)
Eurasian Merchandise Trade - ~50% of world trade (2013), triple from 2000
…… major growth linked to intra continental trade ($7.7T / $9.2 T)
……huge cross-continent trade expansion potential if connected
8
Source: World Trade Organization, 2014
Total 2013 Global Merchandise Export Trade: US$ 18.3T (2000: US$ 6.2T)
Why Infrastructure?
The Belt and Road
Agenda
9
US$2-3 Trillion p.a. needed from now on
Source: Transformation Through Infrastructure by the World
Bank Group, Infrastructure Strategy Update FY2012--2015
 Developing countries face massive infrastructure
deficit:
 1.2 billion without electricity;
 2.8 billion still cook with solid fuels (eg. wood);
 1 billion people live 2+km from an all-weather
road; and
 748 million+ people lack access to safe
drinking water.
 Urban population is expected to double by 2030,
adding 2 billion more people
 US$1 trillion to US$1.5 trillion more in annual
investment needed through 2020
 Double spending every year until 2020 ($200
billion a year to reduce greenhouse gas emissions).
 WB research: a 10% increase in infrastructure
investment contributes 1 % growth in GDP;
 critical to boost growth, create jobs;
 twin goals: end extreme poverty and boost
shared prosperity.
World Bank’s View on Infrastructure:
10
Ana Swanson,
Washington Post
March 24, 2015
Infrastructure
Bill Gates: “. . . it’s important to remember concrete’s benefits . . . (Vaclav) Smil cites
studies that say replacing mud floors with concrete floors in the world’s poorest homes
would improve sanitation and cut the incidence of parasitic diseases by nearly 80
percent. Paving streets, he says, ‘boosts land and rental values, school enrollment, and
overall economic activity and also improves access to credit.’ “
. . . July 2014
“The 1900s were America’s
great period of expansion,
the century in which the
U.S. built almost all of its
roads and bridges, the
Interstate system, the
Hoover Dam, and many of
the world’s tallest
skyscrapers.”
Infrastructure is fundamental in converting
human capital to economic development
11
Why Infrastructure?
The Belt and Road
What it Means to Metals
Agenda
12
…. a pivotal role in a successful economic development model
Million
Tonnes
3000
2500
2000
Heavy industries, steel &
cement, and construction
Efficient
Economy
China’s GDP, Total National Fixed Asset Investment
V.S. Cement and Crude Steel Production 2000 - 2014
GDP
Growth
Billion USD
Cement production (Million tonnes)
Crude steel production (Million tonnes)
Total national fixed asset investment (Billion USD)
GDP (Billion USD)
12000
10000
8000
1500
6000
1000
4000
500
2000
0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: World Bank, Chinese Statistics Bureau
FAI
Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)
13
……contributes to solid internal and global economic growth
Real GDP Growth (in billion USD) 2000-2014
Billion
USD
1000
at constant prices (2005) and constant exchange rates (2005)
Japan
United States
EU28 (European Union)
Rest of World
China FAI-Led Model
China
800
-600
600
-800
14
400
200
0
-200
-400
International
Financial Crisis (IFC)
Japan:
-1.43B USD
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: UNCTAD
US$ ‘B
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
GDP Growth of Major Countries
China grew:
 by ~55 times (ROW: 7.2
times) since 1980
(beginning of Reform)
 by ~8.6 times (ROW: 2.8
times) in the 21st
Century
China’s
Reform
Starts
4,000
2,000
1960 1970 1980
China
France
1990 2000 2010 2014
Germany
Japan
USA
Kevin Rudd (former PM of Australia):
The Chinese economic model is
probably sustainable . . . on balance we
should assume a Chinese growth rate in
the medium to medium-high range . . .
(taking) into account of,
 lower exports
 high domestic debt
 demographically driven shrinking
labour force
 high domestic savings
 modest household consumption
 growing environmental crisis
Lifted 627M (~10% total world population) out of poverty & amassed the world’s
largest foreign exchange reserves of US$4T
A proven model of sustainable economic success
creating domestic and international growth
US-China 21 Report
April 2015 15
Belfer Centre, Harvard University
Eurasian Merchandise trade with a growing China – driven by FAI –
has grown phenomenally since China joined WTO . . .
Huge potential for further trade when land connections improve
Total Merchandise Export/Import Values between China and AIIB
Founding Members, and USA (1998, 2003, 2014)
Billion USD
1,600
1,492
1,400
US$2,549B: 2014 China trade on the Eurasian continent
1,000
Continental trade with China
grew 15 times in 16 years with
poor Eurasian land connections
800
585
600
400
557
US$167B: 1998 China trade on the Eurasian continent
162
200
151
72
87
Asia
1998
Middle East Oceania
2003
Africa
Latin
America
Western
Europe
US
2014
Source: Chinese Statistics Bureau
1,200
16
Why Infrastructure?
The Belt and Road
AIIB & Eurasian Parnership, Why?
Agenda
17




The Silk Road Economic Belt:
Covers a stretch of land along the ancient Silk Road from China through Central Asia to
Europe on the Eurasian land mass
Building comprehensive systems of roads, railways and airports to make the
movement of people and cargo possible, efficient and economical on the continent
The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road:
Starts from the east coast of China and travels through the Malacca Strait, Indian
Ocean, Red Sea and eventually the Mediterranean in Europe.
Will build port infrastructure along this maritime Silk Road, providing modern terminal
facilities along the way covering south Asia, the Middle East and part of east Africa.
A 21st-Century US$21 Trillion
Infrastructure Project to revive
and open up the bottleneck in the
intercontinental connection
between Europe, Asia and Africa,
and link the Pacific, Indian and
Atlantic Oceans on the Eurasian
Continent by land and sea.
The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century
Maritime Silk Road
Covering 3 Continents & 3 Oceans
18
A: USD 2.9B
B: USD 242B
C: USD 21.3B
D: USD 8.4B
E: USD 1.12B
F: USD 5.5B
1500km
old + new Balkan
rail to port
Dec 2014
7,000km HSR
Beijing-Moscow
Oct 2014
770km HSR
Kazan-Moscow
Apr 2015
867km Railway
China-Thailand
Aug 2014
141km (China) of
14600km TAR:
Dec 2014 (operating)
150km HSR
Jakarta-Bandung
Sep 2015
B
C
J
Land Belt: Operating & Potential Railway Projects
Beijing
A
E
G
I
Rail / land corridor projects
D
Silk Road Economic Belt
H
21st-Century Maritime Silk Road
Existing entry point
F
Proposed entry point
G: USD 6.8B
H: USD 12B
I: USD 30.9B
J: USD 18.1B (P1)
K: USD 1.27B
417km Railway
China-Laos
Nov 2015
330km HSR
Malaysia-Singapore Oct
2015
1,754km HSR
Delhi-Chennai
Apr 2015
230km (phase 1) HS2
London – Birmingham
Sep 2015
158km HSR
Ankara – Istanbul
Jul 2014 (operating)
Note: from unverified international public media sources, UBS
K
19
Source: UBS
Potential Railway Projects in Asia
20
B: USD 601M
Phase II of
Hambantota Port
Sri Lanka
Sep 2015
A
C: USD 2.2B
Phase II of Tanjung
Priok Port Expansion
Indonesia, 2015
I
D: USD 2.5B
Kyaukpyu Port
Myanmar
Jan 2015
Beijing
E
F
G
D
Port/Terminal Projects
Silk Road Economic Belt
H
21st-Century Maritime Silk Road
B
Existing Entry Point
C
Proposed Entry Point
E: EUR 278M *
Port Piraeus, Greece
* Market value of Piraeus
Port Authority as at
Feb 2015
F: USD 46B
China-Pakistan
Economic
Corridor
Mar 2015
Note: from unverified international public media sources, UBS
G: USD 1.62B
Gwadar Port,
Pakistan
H: USD 1.4B
Colombo Port
City, Sri Lanka
Feb 2013
Sep 2014
I: USD 1B
Kumport
Terminal
Turkey
Sep 2015
A: USD 2B
Haifa Port Expansion
Israel
Sep 2015
Sea Road: Potential Investment in overseas ports
21
Source: UBS
China’s Overseas Ports (Existing & Potential)
22
9 freight rail lines linking China to different countries in Europe
Another German
destination planned
Hamburg, Germany
Duisburg, Germany
Warsaw, Poland
Madrid, Spain
Chengdu
Jan 2011
Oct 2012
Apr 2013
July 2013
Sep 2013
Jun 2014
Nov 2014
Nov 2014
June 2015
Yuxinou
Hanxinou
Rongou
Zhengou
Sumanou
Hexinou
Yixinou
Xiangou
Haxinou
Hefei
Wuhan
Suzhou
Yiwu
Changsha
Note: Routes are indicated conceptually, not precisely
Source: ifeng.com
 The 13,000km Madrid (Yixinou) line began in Nov 2014; the world’s longest
train journey (Washington Post) crosses 8 countries, changes gauge 3 times,
yet saves ~15 days and ~25% cost over existing sea shipping
 Some have already been shipping for a couple of years
9 China-Europe freight lines are in operation or planned on
existing multi-country rail networks shipping commercial cargo:
23
• 1786 foreign project contracts signed, with a total contract amount of
US$49.4B. (176 projects with single contract value reaching US$50M)
including electricity engineering, city construction, network infrastructure
and transportation.
• Bilateral trading between China
and countries along the route
reached an amount of US$570B.
• Trades between China and
Central Asia Countries up from
U$1.8b in 2000 to U$50bn in
2013
• China made direct investments valued at US$4.59B in 48 countries located
along the Belt and Road, up 29.5% YoY
Positive economic and trade development between China and
countries along the Belt and Road
24
Why Infrastructure?
The Belt and Road
What is AIIB & Why?
Agenda
25
China’s crude steel production reached 100mtpa with GDP of US$892B
but India is expected to reach the same 100mtpa at US$2.9T GDP
800
600
400
200
GDP in Current Dollars (US$ Billion) vs Crude Steel Output
China Crude Steel
China GDP
16000
12000
Steel made = ~100Mt
GDP=US$892B
GDP=US$309B
8000
4000
0
0
300
3500
GDP=US$2,908B
250
200
150
0
3000
Steel made = ~100Mt
2500
2000
India Crude Steel
100
50
GDP
US$ Billion
20000
GDP=US$181B
India GDP
1500
1000
500
0
Source: IMF, Worldsteel
Million
Tonnes
1,000
Two growth trajectories: FAI-led vs non-FAI-led
26
Crude Steel Production in China and India (1978 – 2014)
1800
China Steel Dynamics in 35 years:
1600

1400

1200
Added 8.5Bt steel to the
economy
Achieved annual production of
822Mtpa (2014)
1000
China,
8,510.3
800
600
India,
1,145.7
400
ROW,
25,320.1
200
0
27
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
China
India
ROW
Mtpa
China contributes half of global steel with 19% of world population &
6.5% land area in 35 years
Vs Eurasian economy on a continent 3x China’s population & 5x the land
mass
Source: World Steel Association
Over 15 years China generated US$34T of FAI, growing from US$1.2T GDP to US$9.2T,
consuming over 6Bt of steel at an annual rate of ~800mtpa. The US$21T vision for a
wider economic and geographical context is closer to reality than one might think
China’s FAI
in ~15
years
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
-
US$
Billion
1,198
167
10,360
823
2,549
6,000
5,000
US$21.1T
The Belt
& Road
FAI
7,000
3,455
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Million
2000 GDP, China 1998 China- FAI (China 2000- 2014 GDP, China 2014 ChinaBelt & Road FAI
Tonnes
Eurasian trade
2014)
Eurasian trade
129
FAI in $US
Steel Mt
GDP in US$
Trade in US$
30,000
8,000
Potential steel used
US$34.2T
35,000
China’s total steel used in ~15 years
6,953
40,000
5,000
Add noninfrastructure
FAI
45,000
Sheer Impact of Project Scale
28
Thank You!
29

The Cornerstone of the Next Cycle Connecting the Eurasian Continent

Transcription

Similar documents

Free Trade Show Pass For Contractors

team building at rinx

TRADE SHOW PASS wsrca.com 1-800-725-0333

to see the full size map

Some of this year`s entertainment includes…

TRANSPORTATION

CTC Environmental Policy_April_2015_low-res

opusdei.ca

Eloxite Corporation

Koose Koose (view PDF)