PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES FROM ”PNoy” TO “PRody”

PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES
FROM ”PNoy” TO “PRody”
Ronald D. Holmes
Pulse Asia Research Inc./ Australian National
University/De La Salle University
May 24, 2016
OUTLINE
• On presidential transitions
• Where we are coming from?
• Hitting the ground running?
• Implications for the bureaucracy
• Where are we headed to?
ON PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITIONS
Transition period may be decisive, if not
determinative of their political fate, like
quick drying cement, a transition can rapidly
lock in a new administration even before it
gets moving
Haider, 1981
A few questions:
• Do presidential candidates consider preparing
for governing to be as important as
campaigning?
• How do presidential candidates and newly
elected presidents undertake such
preparations?
• Who are the players in the transition?
• What makes an effective presidential
transition?
Players in the Transition
• Leading roles
– President, legacy oriented, credit-claiming
– President-elect--fresh mandate, popular choice
• Supporting roles
–
–
–
–
–
–
Legislators
Members of the cabinet
Foreign states
Career service
Voters/citizens
Social institutions (media, Church)
What makes for a successful
transition?
• “…is one in which the national
interest is advanced or at least is
not harmed because a transfer of
authority has taken place”
(Clinton and Lang 1993)
What makes for a successful
transition?
• “People, policy and perceptions” (Meese 2003)
– People with a philosophical commitment to the
president elect and his/her policies; of unquestioned
integrity; proven competence; team player; toughness
– Policy—important versus urgent the former drawing
more time, energy and political capital
– Perceptions—impression, both within and outside
government, of how the new president and his
administration performs
What makes for a successful
transition?
• “incoming presidents should be held
accountable for nimble governance
and shrewd implementation of their
priorities—nimble lion, shrewd fox
and a benign puppy” (Walker 1993)
THE OUTGOING PRESIDENT AND
ADMINISTRATION
PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF
PRESIDENT BENIGNO S. AQUINO III
October 2010 to March 2016 / Philippines
Approve
Undecided
Disapprove
100
90
80
79
74
70
71
79
78 78
77
72 70
67
66 68
72
73
68
73
70
60
56 55
50
59
49
40
39
38
30
20
28
18 18
10
0
54 54 55
3
7
21
8
21 23
19
18
18 16
9 9 10
4
4 6 6
30 31 30
24 22
6
6
25
19
7
7
30 30
33
30
23
22
17
14
10 8
7
34
52
14 14
11
12
16 15 18 18
TRUST RATINGS OF
PRESIDENT BENIGNO S. AQUINO III
October 2010 to April 2016 / Philippines
Big Trust
Undecided
Small/No Trust
90
80
80
75
71
78
75 74
80
69
70
77 76
68 69
65
72
74
69
68
60
53 54
56
50 49
50
33
30
17
20
22
10
6
0
49
45
40
20
53
2
23
19
7
18
17
9
5
26
25
8
24 23 25
37
36 36
31 31
31
33
4
6
7
5
7
5
7
9
9
32
28
21
14 15 13
10
30
27
22
17 17 17
16
4
34
40
39
37
13
16 15
24
21
0
Estrada
53 53
49 50
45
40
20
63
Arroyo
80
74
63
57 5757
55
54
53
51
50
49
47
4645 45
41
41
38
Oct'10
Mar'11
May'11
Aug'11
Nov'11
Mar'12
May'12
Sep'12
Nov'12
Jan'13
Feb'13
Mar'13
Apr'13
Jun'13
Sep'13
Dec'13
Mar'14
Jun'14
Sep'14
Nov'14
Mar'15
Sep'15
Dec'15
Jan'16
Mar '16
61
Mar '01
Apr '01
May '01
Jun '01
Oct '01
Dec '01
Apr '02
Jul '02
Nov '02
Apr '03
Aug '03
Sep '03
Nov '03
Jan '04
Feb '04
Jun '04
Oct '04
Mar '05
Jun '05
Jul '05
Oct '05
Mar '06
Jul '06
Nov '06
Mar '07
Apr '07
Jul '07
Oct '07
Mar '08
Jul '08
Oct '08
Feb '09
May '09
Aug '09
Oct '09
Mar '10
Jul '10
60
May '99
Sep '99
Dec '99
Mar '00
Jul '00
Oct '00
Dec '00
COMPARATIVE APPROVAL RATINGS OF
PRESIDENTS ESTRADA, ARROYO & AQUINO
May 1999 to March 2016 / Philippines
Aquino
100
79
79
7878
77
74
72 73 73
71 7270
70
67 6668 68
59
5655
5455
52
49
38
29283030
272626
25 24262625
2322
23
21
19
16
14
MOST URGENT NATIONAL CONCERNS
November 2014 to March 2016 / Philippines
(Multiple Response Allowed / In Percent)
PR1&2
National Concerns
Nov14
Mar15
Jun15
Sep15
Dec15
Mar16
Improving / Increasing the pay of workers
46
44
46
47
42
42
0
Reducing poverty of many Filipinos
40
37
35
32
38
39
+ 1
Controlling inflation
52
46
47
46
45
38
-
Creating more jobs
30
34
36
37
34
36
+ 2
Fighting graft and corruption
in government
36
40
39
39
34
33
-
Fighting criminality
26
22
20
25
25
29
+ 4
Enforcing the law on all, whether
influential or ordinary people
19
19
16
16
16
17
+ 1
Increasing peace in the country
19
22
21
18
19
16
-
Reducing the amount of taxes paid
---
---
---
---
11
13
+ 2
Stopping the destruction and
abuse of our environment
15
13
15
13
12
10
-
Controlling fast population growth
8
9
9
11
7
7
0
Defending the integrity of
Philippine territory against foreigners
4
5
7
7
4
6
+ 2
---
---
---
---
7
6
-
4
4
4
4
3
5
+ 2
---
5
4
3
3
4
+ 1
Protecting the welfare of OFWs
Changing the Constitution
Preparing to face any kind of terrorism
*Change = Figures of March 2016 minus Figures December 2015.
Change*
7
1
3
2
1
PERCEIVED URGENCY OF SELECTED NATIONAL ISSUES AND
THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION'S PERFORMANCE RATINGS
March 12 - 18, 2016 / Philippines
(Row Percent)
% citing as One
of Three Most
Urgent Issues
Approve
Undecided
Disapprove
6
51
35
14
+37
Responding to the needs of areas
affected by calamities
---
49
34
17
+32
Fighting criminality
29
48
30
22
+26
Stopping the destruction and
abuse of our environment
10
41
40
19
+22
Enforcing the law on all, whether
influential or ordinary people
17
42
36
22
+20
Fighting graft and corruption
in government
33
46
28
27
+19
Increasing peace in the country
16
41
35
24
+17
6
40
37
23
+17
Creating more jobs
36
37
39
24
+13
Improving/Increasing the
pay of workers
42
37
33
30
+ 7
Reducing the poverty of
many Filipinos
39
24
40
36
- 12
Controlling inflation
38
25
34
41
- 16
National issues
Protecting the welfare of OFWs
Defending the integrity of Philippine
territory against foreigners
Q49a-l
N o tes:
N a is na m ing m a la m a n a ng inyo ng o pinyo n t ungk o l s a pa gga na p s a t ungk ulin ng a dm inis t ra s yo n ni P re s ide nt e A quino s a pa gha ra p nit o
s a m ga s um us uno d na is yung pa m ba ns a . S a ba wa t is yung m a ba nggit , s a pa m a m a git a n po ng bo a rd na it o , m a a a ri ba ng pa k is a bi ninyo
k ung k a yo a y ( S H O W A N D R E A D R A T IN G B O A R D ) s a pa gga na p s a t ungk ulin ng pa m ba ns a ng a dm inis t ra s yo n s a m ga is yung it o ?
( 1) % A ppro v e = % T ruly A ppro v e plus % S o m e wha t A ppro v e ; % D is a ppro v e = % S o m e wha t D is a ppro v e plus % T ruly D is a ppro v e .
( 2 ) *N A R ( N e t A ppro v a l R a t ing) = %A ppro v e m inus % D is a ppro v e
( 3 ) F igure s m a y no t a dd up t o 10 0 % due t o ro unding o f f o r t o D o n' t Kno w a nd R e f us e re s po ns e s .
NAR*
COMPARATIVE APPROVAL RATINGS OF THE NATIONAL
ADMINISTRATION ON SELECTED NATIONAL ISSUES
October 2010 to March 2016 / Philippines
Approval
Selected National Issues
Change*
Oct Mar May Nov Mar May Sep Nov Mar Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Nov Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Mar16 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 Dec15
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (T - S)
Protecting the welfare of OFWs
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 51 51 52 51
- 1
Responding to the needs of areas
affected by calamities
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 49 49 --- --- 49 49
0
Fighting criminality
62 54 60 53 57 56 66 67 63 60 58 59 54 53 47 45 50 44 45 48
+ 3
Fighting graft and corruption
in government
57 56 56 56 60 58 64 65 59 47 45 50 42 43 45 42 47 39 36 46
+10
Enforcing the law on all, whether
influential or ordinary people
58 49 57 53 57 52 59 64 58 54 52 50 44 43 41 41 45 39 40 42
+ 2
Increasing peace in the country
56 53 57 50 52 50 57 63 52 46 48 52 50 46 45 40 43 46 48 41
- 7
Stopping the destruction and
abuse of our environment
51 48 50 49 46 41 50 60 51 50 41 48 46 42 45 48 39 43 44 41
- 3
Defending the integrity of Philippine
territory against foreigners
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 48 47 48 50 43 39 43 46 40
- 6
Creating more jobs
59 48 53 48 41 41 51 55 50 45 41 41 37 34 37 37 36 37 35 37
+ 2
Improving/Increasing the
pay of workers
56 48 51 43 40 42 51 56 45 43 36 38 36 28 32 33 31 33 31 37
+ 6
Controlling inflation
45 37 39 32 28 28 39 40 39 34 28 26 26 22 24 29 24 24 19 25
+ 6
Reducing the poverty of
many Filipinos
47 41 40 32 32 29 39 44 39 39 31 30 32 26 28 28 26 28 25 24
- 1
*Change = Figures of March 2016 minus Figures of December 2015.
MISCELLANEOUS PROBES:
AGREEMENT / DISAGREEMENT WITH TEST STATEMENTS
March 2015 to March 2016 / Philippines
(In Percent)
TEST STATEMENT
Agree
Undecided
Disagree
CURRENT CONDITION OF
GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar
15 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 16
We can still successfully fight the
corruption of officials in using
public funds.
59
61
59
57
60
16
18
16
21
18
25
21
25
22
21
---
35
40
36
35
---
44
35
40
37
---
21
24
24
28
17
19
20
22
19
17
14
20
22
14
65
67
60
56
67
This country is hopeless.
7
6
6
6
7
8
9
8
11
11
85
85
86
83
82
If it were only possible, I would
migrate to another country
and live there.
---
11
12
15
14
---
14
16
22
18
---
75
72
62
68
TUWID NA DAAN
President Aquino is/has been fulfilling
his promise to follow a straight path.
MARTIAL LAW
Candidly speaking, it may be necessary
now to have martial law to solve
the many crises of the nation.
HOPELESSNESS AND
INTENTION TO MIGRATE
Note: % Agree = % Very M uch Agree plus % Agree; % Disagree = % Disagree plus % Very M uch Disagree
HIT THE GROUND RUNNING: ENTER
“PRODY/PDIGONG”
38.6%
23.45%
21.6%
12.9%
3.4%
2016 PRESIDENTIAL PRE-ELECTION PREFERENCES
BINAY
DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO
DUTERTE
POE
ROXAS
Don't Know/Refused/None
40
35
34
33
30
30
30
26
22
20
15
20
14
25
21
19
20
15
16
23
20
20
33
30
26
23
33
32
28
25
35
21
26
24
22
21
19
24
21
20
26
25
22
20
27
24
22
28
24
25
25
23
22
20
21
19
20
19
17
17
23
22
22
19
17
20
18
16
18
21
17
12
10
9
10
34
0
6
6
5
3
1
UB MAR UB JUN
15
15
UB SEP
15
4
2
4
3
4
3
3
5
5
3
3
4
3
UB DEC PNB JAN PNB FEB ABS 2- ABS 3-1- ABS 3-8- UB MAR
15
16
16
16-27
6 16
13 16
16
16
4
4
2
2
ABS 315-20
16
4
1
5
2
ABS 3- ABS 4-5- ABS 429 4-3
10 16
12-17
16
16
6
2
PNB 416
5
2
4
2
ABS 4- APRI 2619-24
29
The current transition
• Inter-party
• Period of time—interregnum,
between election day and
assumption to office, a matter of
seven weeks (52 days)
The transition period begins
• Coordination with outgoing
administration transition team
• Securing congressional support
• Appointments galore
• An 8-point agenda
Creation of Transition Teams
Aquino
• Issued Administrative Order
No. 49 (s.2016)
• Members of the Presidential
Transition Committee
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Paquito Ochoa
Emmanuel Esguerra
Florencio Abad
Cesar Purisima
Jose Rene Almendras
Rogelio Singson
Herminio Coloma
• Creation of Agency Transition
Committeess
Duterte
• Leoncio “Jun” Evasco
• Christopher “Bong” Go
• Carlos “Sonny” Dominguez
• Salvador Medialdea
• Loreto Ata
• Peter Lavina
Securing Congressional Support
• Identified speaker of the 17th Congress, Davao
del Norte 1st District Representative Pantaleon
”Bebot” Alvarez
• Alliance between PDP-Laban, Lakas, NPC, NUP
and majority of LP representatives
• Senate leadership a toss up between LP
(Drilon), PDP-Laban (Pimentel) and possible
third party (Sotto???)
Cabinet Appointments (so far)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea
Cabinet Secretary Leoncio Evasco
Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo
Acting Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. (Sen. Alan Peter
Cayetano to take over after a year)
Transportation Secretary Arthur Tugade
Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez
Public Works and Highways Secretary Mark Villar
Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi
Justice Secretary Vitaliano Aguirre II
Agriculture Secretary Emmanuel Pinol
NEDA Secretary Ernesto Pernia
Labor Secretary Silvestre Bello
National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon
8 Point agenda
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Continue and maintain the current macroeconomic policies. Reforms in tax revenue
collection efforts will be complemented by reforms within the bureaucracy of tax
collecting agencies.
Accelerate spending on infrastructure by addressing major bottlenecks, and maintain the
target of setting aside 5% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to infrastructure
spending.
Ensure attractiveness of the Philippines to foreign investors, and enhancing
competitiveness in doing business in the country. This also means reducing crime to attract
investors, and increase security of businessmen and consumers.
Provide support services to small farmers to increase productivity and improve market
access. Provide irrigation and better support services to farmers. Promote tourism in the
rural areas.
Address bottlenecks in our land administration and management system.
Strengthen basic education system, and provide scholarships for tertiary education, which
are relevant to private employers' needs.
Improve tax system by indexing tax collection to inflation rate, "to enable those who earn a
little to have more in their pockets.”
Expand and improve implementation of the conditional cash transfer (CCT) program.
Additional “reform” points
• Serious fight against illegal
drugs/criminality
• Federalism
• Population control
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
BUREAUCRACY
Other Presidential appointments
Sector
Line departments and
selected attached agencies
OP Attached Agencies
GOCCs
FSOs
National prosecution service
TOTAL
Source: Monsod 2012
CES
2995
Non-CES Total
1212
4207
147
48
404
397
500
2400
4913
3190
551
445
500
2400
8103
Other Presidential appointments
Policy
Politicization
Patronage
Source: Monsod 2012
Some implications
• Turn-over of senior officials
• “No leadership without followers.”
– “the success of organizational change may well be
more dependent on the presence and characteristics
of experienced organizational mem- bers, their
involvement in the change process, and the
congruence between the con- tent of organizational
change and the opinions of these organizational
members than on leadership by either managers or
politicians” (Sobis, van der Berg, de Vries 2012)
WHERE ARE WE HEADED TO?
End of the presentation
MARAMING SALAMAT PO!!!
References
Clinton, W.D, Lang, D. 1993. ”What makes a successful presidential transition?
The case of foreign affairs.” Presidential Studies Quarterly. 23.1.41-55
Haider, D. H. 1981. “Presidential transitions: critical, if not
decisive.” Public Administration Review. 41.2.-207-211
Joyce, R. 2015. “A tense handover: the 2010 presidential transition in the
Philippines.”Innovations for Successful Societies, Princeton University
Jubb, E.C. 2001. “Counting chickens before they’re hatched: the importance of
pre-transition planning for presidential success.” Contemporary Politics. 7.3.217229
Meese, E. 2003. “Presidential leadership and effective transitions.” Korea
Observer. 34.1.197-204
Monsod, T.C. 2012. ”Presidential appointments in the executive branch: trends,
effects and implications.
Sobis, I., van der Berg, F., de Vries, M. 2012. “The limits of leadership.” Journal of
Public Administration and Policy. 5.1.131-154
Walker, W.E. 1993. “Presidential transitions and the entrepreneurial presidency:
of lions, foxes and puppy dogs.” Presidential Studies Quarterly. 23.1.57-75