The demographic forces shaping New Zealand`s future

NIDEA Briefs No. 3
Waves and Troughs—Choppy Seas at School Age
New Zealand—Population Size and Growth
The population of New Zealand has grown
steadily over the past twenty-seven years, from
around 3.3 million in 1986 to around 4.2 million
in 2011, an increase of 33 per cent (Figure 1).
Continued steady growth is anticipated with the
Statistics New Zealand medium case (50th
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
High (+21.7%)
3,000,000
Medium (+17.9%)
2,000,000
Deepening decline amidst the overall growth is very evident at Census Area Unit level. Between 2006
and 2013, 35 per cent of New Zealand’s 1,869 Census Area Unit (CAU) populations with more than
10 persons declined or experienced zero growth, up from 25.4 per cent across the 2001-2006 period.
The trend was experienced across both the North and South Islands, with the South Island seeing a
slightly greater proportion of declining CAUs.
These trends are expected to continue, as population ageing reduces the proportion at reproductive
age, and the numbers at older ages come to exceed those at younger ages, leading to the end of natural
increase (more births than deaths), and for many regions, the end of growth/onset of permanent
depopulation. As elsewhere, future growth will disproportionately occur at older ages: two-thirds of
New Zealand’s growth to 2031 will be at 65+ years. For Auckland, just one-third of growth will be at
65+ years. For the remaining regions (‘The Rest’) growth at 65+ years will account for all growth and
will partially offset decline at several (in some cases all) other ages.
It is important to place these trends in their global context. Across the next 17 years, overall growth in
the 58 More Developed Countries (MDCs) is expected to be less than 5 per cent (medium variant). At
65+ years, almost 100 million people will be added to the current 200 million (+49 per cent); all other
age groups 0-64 years are projected to decline by around 41 million (-4 per cent). New Zealand’s
population aged 65+ years will grow by around 88 per cent, while all other age groups combined will
grow by about 7 per cent. New Zealand thus lags the
field in terms of structural ageing, but as 2013 Census
http://www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea/
data confirm, the phenomenon is well underway.
Observed (ERP)
Decline Amidst Growth
2
Population Ageing
2
Projected Change by Age 3
The Big Picture—NZ in 3
Global & Local
School Age Waves and
Troughs—Choppy Seas
4
Summary
4
2021
2016
2011
2006
2001
1996
1991
0
Statistics New Zealand, Estimated Resident Population; National
Population Projections 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update)
Agglomeration
Figure 2: Share ( per cent) of New Zealand’s Population Growth 20062013, by City
Between 2006 and 2013, 11 of
New Zealand’s 12 cities
60 51.7
50
(Christchurch excluded) shared
40
three-quarters of New Zealand’s
30
growth (Figure 2). Auckland
20
5.6 5.4 5.1 1.7
10
took 52 percent of the growth.
1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3
0
The remaining growth was
-10
-3.3
spread thinly across 36 districts,
while 20 districts either declined
or did not grow. Only five
districts each gained more than 2
per cent of growth: New
Plymouth and QueenstownLakes (each 2.5 per cent),
Statistics New Zealand, Census Usually Resident Population *2012
Boundaries
Waikato (2.7 per cent),
Waimakiriri (3.3 per cent), and
Selwyn (5.2 per cent,) the latter two reflecting Christchurch’s loss. It should be noted that these data
are for the Census Usually Resident Population (URP) and are thus missing an adjustment for people
temporarily overseas on Census night, and Census undercount, which may alter these
percentages slightly. However the URP data are comparable over time, and thus the
comparisons are internally consistent.
Percentage
The growth is not, however, shared evenly across the country. Between 2006 and 2013, 11 of New
Zealand’s 12 cities (Christchurch excluded) shared three-quarters of the growth. The remaining growth
was spread thinly across 36 districts, while 20 districts either declined or did not grow. Only 5 districts
each gained more than 2 per cent of growth.
Low (+13.6%)
1,000,000
1986
Summary
The population of New Zealand has grown steadily over the past 27 years, from 3.3 million in 1986 to
around 4.2 million in 2011 (+33 per cent). Continued steady growth is anticipated with the Statistics
New Zealand medium case projections indicating a population of 5.2 million by 2031 (+17.9 per cent).
The high variant projection indicates a 2031 population of 5.43 million; the low, just on 5 million.
Figure 1: Population of
New Zealand Population
1986-2011 and
Projected to 2031
Projected
Observed
Inside this issue:
percentile) projections indicating a population of
5.2 million by 2031 (+17.9 per cent). There is not
a great deal of variance in the projections, with the
high projection indicating a 2031 population of
5.43 million, and the low projection, just on 5
million.
2031
Over the next 5 years, past
demographic trends will deliver a
surge of students to New Zealand’s
high schools, while there will be
around 20,000 fewer school
leavers, and a further 8,000 fewer
the following 5 years.
Figure 7: Change
( per cent) at 1318 years of age,
2001-06 and 200613, Total New
Zealand by
Territorial
Authority Area
Natalie Jackson
2026
Declining birth-rates across the rest of the 1990s and into the early
2000s are now seeing a decline at these ages, the map for 2006-2013
clearly showing that almost all TAs experienced the trend. Over the
next 5 years, growth at these ages will return, but it will be both patchy
and temporary, as a recent baby blip—born 2002-2008—reaches those
ages and flows through New Zealand’s high school classrooms. In the
interim, New Zealand will see around 20,000 fewer school leavers (1519 years of age), and a further 8,000 fewer the following 5 years.
Numbers will then similarly—but again only temporarily—surge.
THE DEMOGRAPHIC FORCES SHAPING NEW
ZEALAND’S FUTURE—2013 UPDATE
Number
Population projections are often mistrusted. Figure 7 provides ample
evidence that the projections reported in this Brief are unfolding as
indicated. Between 2001and 2006, most of the nation’s 67 Territorial
Authority Areas (TAs) saw an increase in their 13-18 year old
populations, the legacy of relatively high birth-rates around 1991 (the
so-called ‘baby blip’ or ‘baby boom echo’).
March 2014
National Institute of
Demographic and
Economic Analysis,
Faculty of Arts & Social
Sciences,
The University of
Waikato
Private Bay 3105
Hamilton 3240, New
Zealand
Phone: 07 838 4040
(NIDEA Reception)
E-mail:
[email protected]
ISSN 2230-4436
(Print)
ISSN 2230-4444
(Online)
NIDEA Briefs No. 3
THE demographic FORCES
Page 2
Page 3
NIDEA Briefs No. 3
THE demographic FORCES
Decline Amidst Growth
Projected Change by Age
Deepening decline amidst the overall growth is very evident at
Census Area Unit level (Figure 3). Between 2006 and 2013, 35
per cent of New Zealand’s 1,869 Census Area Unit (CAU)
populations with more than 10 persons declined or
experienced zero growth, up from 25.4 per cent across the
2001-2006 period. The trend was experienced across both the
North and South Islands, with the South Island seeing a
slightly greater proportion of declining CAUs. For the North
Island, 32.2 per cent of CAUs declined between 2006 and
2013, up from 25.1 per cent 2001-2006 (28.1 per cent
increase); for the South Island the proportion declining 20062013 was 35.8 per cent, up from 27.3 per cent 2001-2006
The projected growth for total New Zealand of around 17.9 per cent by 2031 indicated earlier in Figure 1 is broken down by 5-year
age group in Figure 5, and shown for Auckland (which accounts for one-third of the nation’s population) and ‘The Rest’. These data
show that—as elsewhere—growth will disproportionately occur at older ages: two-thirds of New Zealand’s growth to 2031 will be at
65+ years. For Auckland, just one-third of growth will be at 65+ years. For the remaining regions (‘The Rest’) growth at 65+ years
will account for all growth and will partially offset decline at several other ages (in some cases, all other ages).
2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Percentage at each age group
6.0
Females
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Males
Age Group (years)
Auckland
Females
Males
Age Group (years)
Northland
4.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Percentage at each age group
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Percentage at each age group
6.0
6.0
Females
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Males
Age Group (years)
Southland
Females
Males
Age Group (years)
Otago
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
The Big Picture—New Zealand in Global & Local Context
Figure 4: Age-Sex Structure 1996 (unshaded bars) and 2013 (shaded bars), selected
regional council populations
6.0
Future global
competition for
skilled migrants will
affect New
Zealand’s ability to
ensure the levels of
migration it has
experienced in the
past will continue
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by
Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update)
Population Ageing
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
The Rest (of NZ) (+10.5%)
0-4
Between 2006 and
2013, 35 per cent of
New Zealand’s Census
Area Unit populations
declined or experienced
zero growth, up from
25.4 per cent across
the 2001-2006 period
Auckland (+32.5%)
10-14
Figure 3: Change ( per
cent at Census Area
Unit level) for the
Census Usually
Resident Population
of New Zealand
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
5-9
Percentage
Figure 5: Projected change by age (per cent) 2011-2031, Auckland and ‘The Rest’ of NZ
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Percentage at each age group
Source: Jackson/Statistics NZ Estimated Subnational Population at 30th June
6.0
The selection of four regional council
populations in Figure 4 show how
markedly regional age structures differ
across the country. As elsewhere they are
also ageing at different rates (shaded bars
= 2013; unshaded bars = 1996). Of these
four regions, Auckland has the structurally
youngest population with just 11.2 per
cent aged 65+ years, and Northland the
oldest (18 per cent) — nationally the
Figure is 14.2 per cent (Otago and
Southland have 15.4 and 16.2 per cent
respectively). Structural ageing is
particularly pronounced for Northland due
on the one hand to a disproportionate net
migration loss of young adults, and on the
other, to net migration gains of older
working age adults and retirees. Southland
also experiences these trends, but slightly
less so. By contrast, Auckland and Otago
experience disproportionate gains at 20-24
years, which show up particularly strongly
for Otago.
Globally, nationally, and locally,
demographic change is ushering in a
dramatically new set of challenges—
and opportunities for those who
proactively engage with these trends.
Across the next 17 years, overall
growth in the 58 More Developed
Countries (MDCs) is expected to be
less than 5 per cent (medium variant).
At 65+ years, almost 100 million
people will be added to the current
200 million (+49 per cent); all other
age groups 0-64 years are projected
to decline by around 41 million (-4
per cent). The latter is the key pool
from which the MDCs compete for
their skilled migrants, and this
competition will affect New
Zealand’s ability to ensure the levels
of migration it has experienced in the
past—and assumed in the projections
reported here.
Figure 6: Projected contribution to growth* 2011-2031
Projected Total Change
2011-2031 ( per cent)
Projected change at 65+ Projected change—all
years
other age groups
combined (0-64 years)
MDCs (58)
+49 per cent
-4 per cent
(4.5 per cent)
(+98 million)
(-41 million)
New Zealand
88.5 per cent
7.1 per cent
(17.9 per cent)
(+519,720)
(+269,750)
Auckland
112 per cent
23 per cent
(32.5 per cent)
(+175,790)
(+307,010)
80.0 per cent
-1.5 per cent
(+343,930)
(-37,260)
‘The Rest’ (of NZ)
(10.5 per cent)
*Jackson/US Census Bureau International Database; Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational
population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update] Medium Case