HEV

Electrification of the Automobile
March 31, 2010
Sherif Marakby
Director,
Electrification Programs and
Engineering
Ford Motor Company
Electrification of vehicles:
10-year-old vision…
• In the early 1900’s more than
27 companies were building
electric cars, ~1/3 of the cars on
the road were electric
• In 1912, an electric roadster
sold for $1,750, while a gasoline
car sold for $650.
• In 1914, Henry Ford and
Thomas Edison experimented
with an electric car using Edison
Batteries
• In 1915 the Ward Motor
Vehicle Company offered an
electric wagon for $875 on an
one-year installment plan for
the vehicle and a $10.50 month
rental fee for the Edison
Storage battery
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Sustainability Strategy – Technology Migration
2007
Near Term
Begin migration to
advanced technology
Near Term
• Significant number of vehicles with
EcoBoost engines
2011
2020
Mid Term
Full implementation of
known technology
Mid Term
2030
Long Term
Continue leverage of Hybrid
technologies and deployment of
alternative energy sources
Long Term
• EcoBoost engines available in nearly all
vehicles
• Percentage of Internal combustion
engines dependent on renewable fuels
• Electric power steering - High volume
• Dual clutch and 6 speed transmissions
replace 4 & 5 speeds
• Six speed transmissions - High volume
• Volume expansion of Hybrid
technologies
• Weight reduction of 250 – 750 lbs
• Continued leverage of PHEV, BEV
• Flex Fuel Vehicles
• Introduction of fuel cell vehicles
• Add Hybrid applications
• Engine displacement reduction aligned
with weight save
• Increased unibody applications
• Additional Aero improvements
• Introduction of additional small
vehicles
• Increased use of Hybrid Technologies
• Continued weight reduction actions via
advanced materials
• Battery management systems – begin
global migration
• Vehicle capability to fully leverage
available renewable fuels*
• Aero improvements
• Diesel use as market demands
• Stop/Start systems (micro hybrids)
introduced
• Increased application of Stop/Start
• Electric power steering – begin global
migration
• Clean electric / hydrogen fuels
• Introduction of PHEV and BEV
• CNG/LPG Prep Engines available where
select markets demand
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Hybrids and Plug-In Hybrids
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North America – nnounced
A
lectrific
E
ation rojects
P
2004 CY
2010 CY
2012 CY
Transit Connect
(Global C-Platform)
BEV
Battery Electric
Vehicles
Focus (N.A.)
(Global C-Platform)
PHEV
Global C-Platform
Plug-in Hybrid
Electric Vehicles
HEV
Hybrid Electric
Vehicles
2018+ CY
Escape
Fusion/Milan
Next Generation HEV
Next Generation HEV
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3/31/201
Ford of Europe – nnounced
A
lectrific
E
ation rojects
P
2010 CY
BEV
Battery Electric
Vehicles
PHEV
Plug-in Hybrid
Electric Vehicles
HEV
Hybrid Electric
Vehicles
2011 CY
2012 CY
2013+ CY
Transit Connect
Electric
Focus Electric
(Global C-Platform)
Global C-Platform
Next-Generation HEV
Next-Generation HEV
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Electrification Product Plan
201 CY
20
2015 CY
BEV
BEV
PHEV
Ford
Global
Electrified
Volume
•
•
•
•
PHEV
HEV
HEV
HEV
Balanced Portfolio
Global Flexibility
Volume will be predominantly HEV
Plug-ins gaining acceptance
Balanced growth also provides flexibility to react to volatile external factors
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3/31/201
20MY Global Electrification Volume Projections by
Region
Units (Mils.)
2020 MY Electrification Volume Projections
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.7
1.0
0.8
BEV
PHEV
HEV
1.5
1.0
3.0
2.1
2.1
0.2
0.2
0.8
U.S.
Europe
China
Japan
Note: Data is aggregated from consultancy papers as follows:
J.P. Morgan, “Global Environmental Series Volume 3 - HEVs Potential Reconsidered in Economic Crisis,” May 2009
Roland Berger, Powertrain 2020 – “China's ambition to become market leader in E-Vehicles,” April 2009
Boston Consulting Group, “The Comeback of the Electric Car? How Real, How Soon, and What Must Happen Next,” Dec. 2008
Frost & Sullivan, “Strategic Analysis of North American Passenger Electric Vehicles Market,” April 2009
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2015MY Global Electrification Volume Projections by
Manufacturer
BEV
PHEV
HEV
2015CY Global Electrification by Major Manufacturer
% by Electrification Type
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
a
on
d
H
ai
yu
nd
H
ta
yo
To
BM
W
rd
Fo
VW
r
ai
m
le
D
G
M
R
en
a
ul
t/N
is
sa
n
0%
Note:
- All data is from CSM Worldwide global comprehensive
vehicle production and sales forecasts, 3/05/10.
- Major manufacturers are those with >50,000 electrified
vehicle sales projected in 2015
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What does it take to support a sustainable mass market
electrified vehicle?
• Customer-Focused
Great Features
Functional Technology
Meets Transportation Needs
Affordable
Cost per
kWh
$750
$500
$250
BEV
System On-Cost
–
–
–
–
HEV
100 mile range
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV /
BEV costs
converge
due to base
P/T deletion
HEV
2012CY
2016CY
BEV
2020CY
High Vol – 250k+
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Drivers of Hybrid Technology Evolution
Electrification Technologies – Background
Function
Engine
stop/start
Engine Assist
(Downsize)
Regenerative
Brake
Electric
launch
All Electric
Drive
Fuel
Economy
Improvement
YES
(> 0.3 sec )
Minimal
(< 3 kW)
Minimal
(< 3 kW)
NO
NO
3-6%
Mild Hybrid
(42V)
YES
Modest
(< 9 kW)
Modest
(< 9 kW)
NO
NO
8%/12%
Medium Hybrid
(100+V)
YES
YES
YES
(full benefit)
NO
NO
40%
Full Hybrid
(300V)
YES
YES
YES
YES
Yes
55%+
Plug In Hybrid
(based on
Blended Full)
YES
YES
YES
YES
Yes
80%+
Battery Electric
Vehicle
YES
No Engine
YES
YES
YES
Infinite
System
Micro-hybrid
(14V)
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Drivers of Hybrid Technology Evolution
HEV → PHEV → BEV Components
HEV
PHEV
BEV
Yes (Power)
Yes (Energy)
Yes (Energy)
Electric AC
Yes
Yes
Yes
DC/DC Converter
Yes
Yes
Yes
Regen Brakes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Motor(s)
Yes
Yes
Yes
Inverter(s)
Yes
Yes
Yes
Transmission
Yes
Yes
No
EV Gearbox
No
No
Yes
Charger
No
Yes
No
Yes
Battery
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Ford’s “Power Split” Hybrid System
I4 Gasoline Engine
w/ Atkinson Cycle
Battery
Over 200 Ford Patents
Over 100 new Patents on Fusion
Super Ultra Low
Emissions (AT-PZEV)
Electric
Transaxle
Motors
Inverters
Series Regenerative
Braking
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Ford’s “Power Split” Hybrid System
•Lower Speeds (Electric Drive)
•Up to 47 mph
Moderate Speeds and Loads
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System Optimization – Core Competency
Traction
HV
Battery
Variable
Voltage
Converter
VBAT
Optimum
Battery Voltage for
Best Fuel Economy
Motor
Inverter
Traction
Motor
VINV
Generator
Inverter
Traction
Generator
Optimum Boost for
Best Fuel Economy
Lower Inverter
& Motor Losses
from Lower
Battery Voltage
Torque
Up to 20%
loss reduction
Lower Inverter
& Motor Losses
from Higher
Inverter Voltage
& Minimum-Loss Control
Up to 20%
loss reduction
Speed
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Ford’s Plug-in Hybrid System
•
A Ford Full Hybrid Power Split architecture can be scaled down (for cost), or up to
provide PHEV functionality (blended operation).
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A “Power Split” Blended PHEV System
ELECTRIC DRIVE
At urban speeds, the high-capacity plugin hybrid battery allows for extended
battery-only driving distance
BLENDED ELECTRIC/ENGINE DRIVE
At higher power demands and vehicle
speeds, the vehicle automatically
switches to blended electric/engine
mode, providing propulsion using both
the engine and the high-capacity battery
HYBRID DRIVE
In hybrid drive mode, the vehicle
continues to operate as a standard hybrid
electric vehicle
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Blended PHEV Hardware Commonality with HEV
Component
HEV
PHEV
High Voltage Battery
Power vs. Energy
Traction Motor
Same
Generator
Same
Inverter(s)
Same
Electric AC
Same
DC/DC Converter
Same
Regen Brakes Hardware
Same
Transmission
Same
Engine
Same
Charger & Wiring
New
Electric Pumps/Cooling Circuits
Modified transaxle oil
lubrication/cooling circuit
Significant
Re-use of
HEV
hardware
to leverage
scale
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Drivers of Hybrid Technology Evolution
Hybrid
Vehicle Types
Parallel Hybrid
Parallel Hybrid:
Engine power = mechanical path
Motor provides assistance
PowerSplit Hybrid:
• w/ benefits of both
• Simple transmission
Fuel
Multiple
architectures
to choose
from…
Motor
Series Hybrid:
• EV Operation w/Stop-Start
• High efficiency Regen Braking
• Engine downsizing
• Full-size drive needed
Transmission
ICE
•
•
PowerSplit Hybrid
Series Hybrid
Energy
Storage
Energy
Storage
drive2
Motor
Motor
drive1
Energy
Storage
drive
drive2
drive1
Generator
ICE
ICE
Generator
Fuel
Fuel
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Hybrid Battery Technology Comparison
3500
Different Cells
required for
different
applications…
3000
Li-Ion HEV
Specific Power (W/kg)
2500
2000
Li-Ion PHEV
1500
NiMH HEV
Li-Ion BEV
1000
500
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Specific Energy (Wh/kg)
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Necessary Battery Technology Evolution
EV Battery
EV Battery
EV Battery
• 23kWh
• 500lbs
• 125 liters
• 23kWh
• 400lbs
• 100 liters
• 23kWh
• 250lbs
• 75 liters
Future
2nd Gen
1st Gen
For weight, size,
performance and
affordability
evolution is
required…
Goal
Fuel Tank
• 23kWh
• 125lbs
• 60 liters
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USABC EV Battery Goal Analysis
Specific Discharge Power (400W/kg)
100%
Temperature Range (-40 to +85C)
Specific Charge Power (200W/kg)
75%
50%
25%
Selling Price ($100/kWh @10k
units/year)
Power Density (600W/liter)
0%
Calendar Life (10Yrs)
Specific Energy (200Wh/kg)
Cycle Life (1000 cycles to 80% DOD)
USABC Goal
Energy Density (300Wh/liter)
Li-Ion
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Plug In Vehicle Li-Ion Cell Technology
2500
USABC PHEV-10
Specific Power (W/kg)
2000
1500
Technology
Need
Present
Technology
Options
1000
USABC PHEV-40
500
0
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Specific Energy (Wh/kg)
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Drivers of Hybrid Technology Evolution
Multiple Cost Drivers
Application/Usage (Drive Cycles)
• Peak to Average Power Ratio
Total cost
• Thermal Cycling
is very high…
• Power Cycling
• Desired Range
Technology
• Silicon Technology (IGBT, Diodes) – Industry Standards vs. Custom?
• Power Module Packaging and Cooling Technology
• Capacitor Technology
• Sensing Technology
• Battery Cell Technology
Commonality and Reuse
• Power Density – Package Size
• Fixed vs. Tunable
• Connection Systems
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Drivers of Hybrid Technology Evolution
Customers - Drive Patterns
•
•
•
•
•
•
Low speed, stop and go city driving
High speed highway driving
Hilly terrain driving
Driving with towing
Off road driving
Very high speed driving
Many factors to
consider…with
regional
differences
Fuel economy / Energy economy vary
significantly based on driving conditions.
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Drivers of Hybrid Technology Evolution
Hybrid Systems Design Approach
Inverter duty cycles simulated in
Matlab/Simulink
Based on analyses of RWUPs, Estimate Inverter Usage
30000
B attery P ower (W)
Generated 90th Percentile Drive Profile
Equivalent to 10 Years/150k Miles
20000
10000
0
-10000
-20000
-30000
-40000
Tim e (s)
RWUPs based on PRVD
System Design
Optimization
Needed for
Low Cost,
Robust Design
Based on duty cycle and
component degradation with
cycling and time.
Used to reconcile life vs. Fuel
Economy & Performance
90% Customer (Driving Style, Location)
90% Environment (Temperature, Terrain)
Inverter Key Life Tests
Accelerated tests to
Validate inverter cycle life
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Drivers of Hybrid Technology Evolution
Technology Evolution – Silicon
•
•
•
•
•
•
Current Density (Silicon Area)
Better Switching vs. Conduction loss trade-off
Operating Junction Temperature (150 to 175C)
Lower Cost Starting Wafer Material
Wafer Size (6 inch to 8 inch)
Wafer Yield Improvements
1.2
Multiple Technology
Iterations Needed for
Affordability
… competes with
commonality and
reuse or scale
Low Density (5um)
Planar PT Technology
1
0.8
IGBT
Silicon Area
Cost Drivers:
• Chip Shrink
• Higher Yields
• Larger Wafers
High Density (1um)
Trench PT Technology
Newer Structures
Higher Density
Ultra Thin Wafers
0.6
0.4
High Density (3um)
Planar PT Technology
High Density (1um)
Trench LPT Technology
0.2
0
1984
New Materials,
RC-IGBT, etc.?
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014
Year
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Drivers of Hybrid Technology Evolution
SMARTGAUGE™
New
Knowledge
and Skills
Needed:
Customer
and Engineer
WITH ECOGUIDE
New
concepts
required for
Plug-In
vehicles
GRAPHICALLY TRACKS DRIVER’S EFFICIENCY
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Realizing the Power of
Plugging-In
Two Industries connected through a common Customer
and “Fuel”
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Current State: Independent Solutions
Home Generators
Appliances
Tools
Windmills
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Future State: Integrated Energy World with Utilities & Autos
Working Together
Renewables
Wind/ Solar
Off Peak
Exploring Customer Value From “Plugging In”
• All New System View:
•
What components are in the new system?
•
How will the grid and energy flow be
controlled in the future?
•
Who are the parties involved?
•
What new integration is needed?
•
What are the key technologies and
standards needed?
Many Open Questions…
Utility Data
Management
and Operations
Advanced
Lithium
Batteries
for Mobile and
Stationary
Uses
Smart
Appliances
Integrating a new
energy eco-system
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Today’s Ford Escape Plugin Project
 Unique partnership between automotive
and utility sectors to accelerate the
commercialization of PHEVs
 Project goals:
Development of open architectures,
standards and specifications
Create Customer Demand based on
realistic expectations
Creation of New Business Models
 Diversifies transportation energy supply
 Future Vision: From Independent to
Integrated
Two industries connected by a common fuel
… driving our transportation and energy
future…
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Deep Understanding V2G Connectivity
A 240V @ 30A
circuit can provide
~ 6kW continuous
charge
AC/DC
AC/DC
Existing design:
29A – 56A/ home*
per standard utility
sizing methods
* Multiplication factor
(Coincidence factor)
varies from region to
region and utility to
utility.
–
Battery
Existing battery: capable of
charging at the vehicle worst
case drive cycle discharge
rate.
AC/DC
Distribution
Substation
+
Home
Existing design:
58A – 87A (not including
charger)
per NEC220
Multiple Home Pole
Transformer
Existing design:
31A – 59A/ home*
per standard utility sizing methods
Detroit Edison
connects 5 -7
homes to a
25 kVA
transformer
Charge
Plug/Cord
Level 1 & 2
available
per SAE J1772 ©
Vehicle
Existing wiring: capable
of worst case drive
cycle
When a Plug-in vehicle is Charging, it approximately
doubles the household energy load…
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Collaborations are Key!
Ford, Microsoft TEAM UP to help ELECTRIC VEHICLE
OWNERS RECHARGE MOST EFFECTIVELY, AFFORDABLY
•
Ford and Microsoft are teaming up to introduce Microsoft Hohm™, a free online
application,
to help future owners of Ford’s electric vehicles better manage their home’s energy
use and vehicle recharging
•
Ford and Microsoft also will work with utilities and municipalities to help develop an
energy ecosystem that manages energy usage as consumer demand for electric
vehicles grows
•
Ford’s aggressive electrification plan includes five new vehicles in North America and
Europe by 2013; in North America, they include the Transit Connect Electric later this
year, Focus Electric in 2011, a plug-in hybrid and two next-generation hybrids in 2012 –
joining four Ford and Mercury hybrids already on the road and a new Lincoln hybrid
coming this fall
•
Ford expects the Focus Electric to be the first Ford electric vehicle to use Hohm
Ford / Microsoft Joint Press Release 03/31/10
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ADD MS / Ford Pic…
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Intelligent Car-to-Smart Meter Connectivity
Demonstrated innovative wireless
vehicle-to-meter communications
and customer-directed control of
charging
• Directed time-of-day charging
• Customer price-point charge
acceptance
• Interruptible service acceptance
• Green charging options
• Capability provided to driver
through touch screen/NAV
• Being rolled-out on all
demonstration vehicles in fleet
More Ford Technology Options … already under development!
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Focus on Execution of
Common Codes & Standards
• Development of Open Architectures, Standards and
Specifications
• Key to Mass Market PHEV Introduction
Automotive Vehicle
Operation
• Feedback control
• Respond to customer action
• Provide consistent performance
• Customer expectation driven
• Transportation focused
Utility Grid Operation
G2V
V2H
V2G
•Feed forward control
•Provide low noise content power
•Optimize use of facilities
•Minimize Ancillary Service
•Maximize use of available power
•Stationary power driven
Near Term Solutions
Needed:
• Energy measurement
• Mobile billing/roaming
• Infrastructure
limitations
• Convenience charging
• Codes & standards
• Education
Vehicle-Grid Interaction Across Geographic Markets
MUST BE CONSISTENT
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Infrastructure
Priority
Charging Customer Segments
Most Frequent
Less Frequent
Main charge spot
located in garage or
driveway of residence.
For fleets customers,
main charge location is
fleet depot where
multiple chargers could
be installed.
Main charge location is
work – allowing urban
commuters/street
parkers to have reliable
charge. Also allows
extended range for
home chargers.
For occasional trips,
municipal charge
locations could be
viable option. If
reservation system is
implemented, could be
used for main charge
location.
Charging Infrastructure is a key enabler to Plug-In Vehicles
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Plug-In Vehicle Charging Standards (North America)
1. Infrastructure Agreed to use SAE J1772 Standard
–
Three Charging Levels Defined
•
•
•
Level 1: 110V Standard household outlet (up to 2 kW)
Level 2: 220V (up to 19.2 kW) – Electric Vehicle Service Equipment (EVSE) Required
Level 3: 440V to DC Charging (up to 86 kW) - EVSE Required
2. National Electrician Code specifies installation requirements for EVSE
These two standards provide the framework that allow charge stations to be compatible
with all plug-in vehicles in North America independent of manufacturer.
Level 1 and Level 2
J1772 Connector
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Background – Ford Plug-In Vehicle Charging Options
Directional Charge Time (hours)
25
BEV’s
20
15
10
5
8 Hours/Overnight
PHEV’s
0
Directional Installation Costs:
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3 (80% SOC)
$0 - $200
$2,000
$50,000
Target overnight charging (less than 8 hours) - base assumption that Level 2 installation
will be required for BEV’s, and optional for PHEV
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Directional Cost Estimates for Level 2
Infrastructure
Level 2
Home Charge Point
Level 2
Public Charge Point
Hardware (EVSE)
$700
$3,000
Quote/Permitting/
Admin
$200
$500
$900
$200 - $5,000
$3,500
$1,000 - $10,000
$200
$500
$ 2,000
$ 7,500
Labor -Typical
-Range
Materials
Total Estimate (Typical)
Affordability will be Key
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Market Readiness
•
Current plug-in owners on average charge at least two times per day1
•
Charge point availability is cited as the key adoption barrier to electric vehicles2
•
In an experiment, adding fast chargers at strategic city points increased electric fleet
vehicle use – charge point usage did not increase but lessoned range anxiety3
•
Based on announcements, current public and private Level 2 infrastructure installation
rates will not keep pace with plug-in sales.
1,500 public chargers currently
tracked in U.S. on
www.evchargermaps.com and
www.mychargepoint.net
Much to Learn!
Customer
Behavior and
what is really
valued…
Reference UC-Davis Market Survey
Reference EPRI Focus Group Findings May 2009
3 Reference Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) experiment
1
2
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Electric Market Evolution
2005 HEV Volumes
2007
November
2009-CYTD
by DMA
HEV Volumes by DMA
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Electric Market Evolution
Fuel Prices Impact HEV Sales –
Volatility is incredible in the US …
Peak of ~3.5% of
Fleet
Today ~2.1% of
a Smaller Fleet
Free Market Demand Not able to Deliver Accelerated Growth…
Policy, Volume and Volume Stability Needed
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What will it take to accelerate electrification?
Challenges and Obstacles
• Aligned Goal
– Accelerate the production of HEV, PHEVs, BEVs, and V2H technologies that delight
customers and provide a reasonable rate of return to all
• New Business Approaches / Partnerships (OEM/Utility Collaboration)
– Today: World of independent solutions
– Opportunity: Convergence of technologies and industries
– Future: Transportation, Utilities and System Integrators become an interdependent
system
• Customer Affordability and Sustainable Business Proposition
–
–
–
–
–
Customers desire price payment parity with Internal Combustion Engine
Cost of Ownership key to customers – Total Cost and Total Value
Near term jump-start the industry – combined incentives
Mid-term grow volume with customer focused profitable product
Long-term develop solutions to reduce cost and achieve profitability parity
(sustainable business proposition for all)
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Integrated Approach With Shared Responsibility
Consumers
Government
Auto
Industry
Utilities
Battery
suppliers
The development of
a sustainable
electrified
market will be
dependent on close
cooperation between
•
•
•
•
•
•
Manufacturers
Utilities
System Integrators
Battery suppliers
Governments, and
Consumers
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Backup
Auto Brand Perceptions 2009:
National Consumer Assessment
December 18, 2009
NRC #2009.102
Consumer Reports National Research Center
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