Vehicle Safety: Where It`s Been and Where It`s heading

Vehicle Safety: Where It’s
Been and Where It’s heading
www.iihs.org
Washington Automotive Press Association
Washington, D.C. ● January 15, 2015
Adrian K. Lund, Ph.D.
President, IIHS and HLDI
50th Anniversary crash test
1959 Bel Air vs. 2009 Malibu
www.iihs.org
Who are we?
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety,
founded in 1959, is an independent, nonprofit, scientific, and
educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses —
deaths, injuries, and property damage — from crashes on the
nation’s roads.
The Highway Loss Data Institute,
founded in 1972, shares and supports this mission through
scientific studies of insurance data representing the human
and economic losses resulting from the ownership and
operation of different types of vehicles and by publishing
insurance loss results by vehicle make and model.
Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.
www.iihs.org
IIHS members write 85% of private passenger market
• Acceptance Insurance
• Frankenmuth Insurance
• Old American County Mutual Fire Insurance
• ACE Private Risk Services
• Freestone Insurance Company
• Old American Indemnity Company
• Affirmative Insurance
• Gainsco Insurance
• Oregon Mutual Insurance
• Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation
• GEICO Group
• Pekin Insurance
• Alfa Insurance
• The General Insurance
• PEMCO Insurance
• Allstate Insurance Group
• Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Plymouth Rock Assurance
• American Family Mutual Insurance
• Goodville Mutual Casualty Company
• Progressive Corporation
• American National Property and Casualty Company
• Grange Insurance
• QBE
• Ameriprise Auto & Home
• Hallmark Insurance Company
• The Responsive Auto Insurance Company
• Amica Mutual Insurance Company
• Hanover Insurance Group
• Rockingham Group
• Auto Club Enterprises
• The Hartford
• Safe Auto Insurance
• Auto Club Group
• Haulers Insurance Company, Inc.
• Safeco Insurance
• Auto-Owners Insurance
• Horace Mann Insurance Companies
• Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company
• Aviva Insurance
• ICW Group
• SECURA Insurance
• Bankers Insurance Group
• Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company
• Sentry Insurance
• Bituminous Insurance Companies
• Indiana Farmers Mutual Insurance Company
• Shelter Insurance
• California Casualty Group
• Infinity Property & Casualty
• Sompo Japan Insurance Company of America
• California State Auto Group
• Kemper Preferred
• South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Capital Insurance Group
• Kentucky Farm Bureau Insurance
• Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company
• Chubb & Son
• Liberty Mutual Insurance Company
• State Auto Insurance Companies
• Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• State Farm
• Commonwealth Mutual Insurance Company of America
• Maryland Automobile Insurance Fund
• Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company
• Concord Group Insurance Companies
• Mercury Insurance Group
• Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies
• COUNTRY Financial
• MetLife Auto & Home
• Tower Group Companies
• CSAA Insurance Group
• Michigan Millers Mutual Insurance Company
• The Travelers Companies
• CSE Insurance Group
• MiddleOak
• United Educators
• Direct General Corporation
• Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company
• USAA
• Erie Insurance Group
• MMG Insurance
• Utica National Insurance Group
• Esurance
• Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company
• Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance
• Farm Bureau Financial Services
• Nationwide
• West Bend Mutual Insurance Company
• Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan
• New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group
• Western National
• Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho
• Nodak Mutual Insurance Company
• Westfield Insurance
• Farmers Insurance Group of Companies
• Norfolk & Dedham Group
• XL Group plc
• Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa
• North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company
• Zurich North America
• Farmers Mutual of Nebraska
• Northern Neck Insurance Company
• Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies
• Ohio Mutual Insurance Group
www.iihs.org
Where are we?
Location of IIHS/HLDI and Vehicle Research Center
Washington, DC
Arlington
Charlottesville
Virginia
Virginia
www.iihs.org
US motor vehicle crash deaths and
unemployment rate
1950-2012
60,000
20
55,000
motor vehicle crash deaths
15
50,000
45,000
10
8%
40,000
5
unemployment rate
35,000
33,561
30,000
0
1950
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2000
05
10
www.iihs.org
US motor vehicle crash deaths per billion vehicle
miles traveled and unemployment rate
1950-2012
80
20
deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled
70
60
15
50
40
30
10
8%
unemployment rate
20
5
10
11.3 per billion
0
0
1950
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2000
05
10
www.iihs.org
Year-to-year percent changes in US motor vehicle
crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled
and unemployment rate
1951-2012
20
80
15
10
unemployment rate
40
5
0
0
-5
-10
-40
-15
deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled
-20
-80
1950
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2000
05
10
www.iihs.org
80
Motor vehicle crash deaths per billion miles traveled
1950-2012
60
40
20
0
1950
60
70
80
90
2000
10
Vehicle improvements have been
key to reductions in motor
vehicle crash fatality risk
www.iihs.org
Vehicle and non-vehicle factors and highway safety
Fatal crash rates per million vehicles, actual vs. expected for 1985 fleet
180
160
140
120
100
80
actual rates
60
expected rates
40
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
calendar year
www.iihs.org
New car assessment programs (NCAPs)
By year of inception
1993
1978
1995
1995
1999
1997
2010
2006
2012
2011
www.iihs.org
IIHS crashworthiness tests
Front moderate overlap,
beginning 1995
Roof strength,
beginning 2009
Side impact,
beginning 2003
Rear crash (whiplash mitigation),
beginning 2004
Front small overlap,
beginning 2012
www.iihs.org
Crash protection ratings by model year
Improvements: Beginning in 1995
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
poor
poor
marginal
20%
acceptable
Frontal
20%
Side
0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
poor
poor
marginal
marginal
20%
acceptable
good
good
0%
marginal
Rear
acceptable
20%
acceptable
good
good
0%
Roof
0%
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
www.iihs.org
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Small overlap crashes
www.iihs.org
Vehicle occupant deaths by point of impact, 2012
11,426 died in frontal crashes
Other (mostly
rollover)
Rear
Front
Side
www.iihs.org
Serious injuries in frontal crashes, by configuration
Vehicles rated good in IIHS moderate overlap crash test
override
2%
full width
6%
low severity
11%
small
overlap
24%
underride
14%
center
19%
moderate
overlap
24%
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
Kia Soul
www.iihs.org
Kia Soul
2013 model
2015 model
www.iihs.org
Front small overlap tests since 2012
• 134 small overlap front tests conducted since 2012
– Cars: minicars, small, midsize, midsize luxury, large luxury
– SUVs: small, midsize, midsize luxury
– Minivans
• 19 models tested twice
– 17 redesigns and modifications improved structural rating
– 17 improved overall rating
www.iihs.org
Examples of structural modifications
engagement structures attached to frame rail
bumper beam reinforcement
side frame structure
occupant compartment reinforcement
www.iihs.org
Weight change associated with improved structure
Weight
increase
(lbs.)
Rogue
Q50
Soul
Legacy
CR-V
Odyssey
Jetta
Sonata
Camry
CX-5
Accord
Fit
Forte
114
112
106
97
95
59
59
44
11
2
-7
-9
-18
Nissan Rogue
+114 pounds
floor support
underbody
deflector
Honda Fit
-9 pounds
Honda developed single-piece
hot-stamped door-stiffener ring
www.iihs.org
Small overlap ratings by model year
January 2015
120
poor
100
marginal
acceptable
80
good
60
40
20
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
2015 Kia Sedona
www.iihs.org
Santa Claus delivers 2015 TOP SAFETY PICKs
Public release December 23
www.iihs.org
Requirements for 2015 TOP SAFETY PICK awards
rating in moderate overlap front, side, roof strength
and head restraint tests
&
or
rating in small overlap front test
meet TOP SAFETY PICK criteria
&
Advanced or Superior rating for front crash prevention
www.iihs.org
TSP+ criteria change to reflect new technology
Higher bar encourages improvement
• 2012-13 TSP+ criteria based on crash test
performance only
– Many models offered front crash prevention systems
• 2014 TSP+ added Basic or better FCP rating
– 60 models now offer higher FCP performance
• Change for 2015 TSP+
– Advanced or Superior FCP rating
– Basic FCP rating still eligible for TSP
www.iihs.org
TOP SAFETY PICK winners by calendar year
year
2006
9 Gold
12 Silver
07
23
08
64
09
94
10
58
11
102
12
136
13
30 TSP+
126 TSP
14
43 TSP+
25 TSP
15
33 TSP+
38 TSP
www.iihs.org
Can new crash avoidance
technology help in the same way
as crashworthiness?
www.iihs.org
The Google vision
Autonomous vehicles delivering occupants to pre-set destinations
www.iihs.org
Google car
www.iihs.org
Audi Piloted Driving
San Francisco to Las Vegas, January 4-5, 2015
www.iihs.org
Driver assistance features
Radar, LIDAR, ultrasonic, infrared, cameras, GPS
www.iihs.org
Vehicles without and with ESC
www.iihs.org
Effects on crash risk
Percent change in crash rates for vehicles with standard ESC vs.
optional or no ESC, updated May 2010
20
all crashes
fatal injury
0
-20
-40
all crashes
-60
multiple-vehicle
single-vehicle
-80
www.iihs.org
Front crash prevention systems
are reducing front to rear crashes
www.iihs.org
Changes in physical damage claim frequency for
front crash prevention systems
20%
low speed
warning only
warning with autobrake
10%
0%
-10%
PDL
-20%
collision
-30%
Volvo City
Safety
Honda Accord
(with LDW)
Mercedes
Volvo
Acura
Mercedes
Subaru
(with LDW)
Volvo
(with LDW)
www.iihs.org
Changes in injury claim frequency for front crash
prevention systems
80%
low speed
warning only
warning with autobrake
40%
0%
-40%
bodily injury liability
-80%
Volvo City Safety Honda Accord
(includes LDW)
Mercedes
Volvo
Acura
Mercedes
Subaru
Volvo
(includes LDW)
Mercedes
Volvo
Acura
Mercedes
Subaru
(with LDW)
Volvo
(with LDW)
30%
MedPay
PIP
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Volvo City
Safety
Honda
Accord
(with LDW)
warning only
warning with autobrake
www.iihs.org
Front crash prevention
Automatic braking tests at 12 mph and 25 mph
www.iihs.org
BMW comparison video
12 mph tests
www.iihs.org
Front crash prevention ratings
2014 and 2015 models
120
117
2014
2015
80
70
46
38
40
33
24
27
19
0
not qualified/
not available
basic
advanced
superior
www.iihs.org
Adaptive headlights
without
with
www.iihs.org
Adaptive headlights
Percent change in vehicle damage claims per insured vehicle year
12
8
PDL
collision
percent decrease
4
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
-20
Acura
Mazda
Mercedes
Volvo
www.iihs.org
Nighttime (6 pm to 6 am) crashes on curves
5,479,247 police-reported
crashes in 2012
47,383 multi-vehicle,
night, curved section
= 0.85% of all crashes
199,905 (3.57%)
night, curved section
= 1.23% of
multi-vehicle crashes
other reported crashes
night, curved road section
multi-vehicle, night, curved road section
www.iihs.org
Adaptive headlights
Percent change in injury claims per insured vehicle year
10
Bodily injury liability
0
-10
-20
Acura
Mazda
Mercedes
Volvo
0
-10
-20
MedPay
-30
MedPay and PIP
(1st party injuries)
PIP
-40
Acura
Mazda
Mercedes
Volvo
www.iihs.org
Pedestrian detection
www.iihs.org
The impact of advanced driver
assist systems on insurance
(and safety) will occur gradually
as technology penetrates the fleet
www.iihs.org
New vehicle series with front crash prevention
By model year
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2002
2004
standard
2006
optional
2008
2010
2012
not available
www.iihs.org
Registered vehicles with front crash prevention
By calendar year
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2002
2004
standard
2006
optional
2008
2010
2012
not available
www.iihs.org
Registered vehicles with front crash prevention,
actual and predicted
By calendar year
100%
80%
60%
predicted
40%
actual
20%
0%
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
www.iihs.org
Calendar year features reach 95% of registered
vehicles with and without hypothetical mandate
2050
without mandate
hypothetical 2015 mandate
2040
2030
2020
front crash
prevention
lane departure
warning
adaptive
headlights
blind spot
warning
rear
camera
rear parking
sensors
www.iihs.org
In the meantime, there are other
actions we can take to achieve
Vision Zero that can mitigate
driver distraction and error
www.iihs.org
August 2011
www.iihs.org
Low-hanging fruit
• Roundabouts
• Primary safety belt use laws
• Mandatory helmet use for all motorcyclists
• Strengthen graduated driver licensing laws
• Lower speed limits
• Automated enforcement of red light running and speeding
• Sobriety checkpoints
These are proven countermeasures that can reduce deaths and
injuries on our highways as soon as implemented.
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
If 10 percent of signalized intersections in
the United States were converted to roundabouts
• Approximately 46,000 crashes prevented in 2012 including:
– 184 fatal crashes
– 31,000 injury crashes
• Vehicle delays reduced by more than 900 million hours
• Fuel consumption reduced by more than 600 million gallons
www.iihs.org
Fatalities in red light running crashes
2011
number
Driver in red light running vehicle
247
Passenger in red light running vehicle
83
Occupants non-red light running vehicle
341
Pedestrian, bicyclist and personal conveyance
43
TOTAL
714
www.iihs.org
Percent difference in actual fatal crash rates during
2004-08 in 14 large cities with red light cameras vs.
expected rates without cameras
0
-10
-20
-30
red light running
fatal crashes
fatal crashes
at intersections
with signal lights
www.iihs.org
Driver fails to stop for red traffic light
www.iihs.org
www.iihs.org
Dedicated to reducing deaths, injuries,
and property damage on the highway