Change in Environmental Services in Southern Yucatán: Balancing

Change in Environmental Services
in Southern Yucatán: Balancing
Proximate and Distal Drivers
B. L. Turner II
ACES
December 6-9, 2010
Gila River Indian Community
Anthropogenic Drivers of Land Change
• 25 yrs of study
• Ecological/environmental practitioners
• Social science
practitioners
Macro Scales &
Long Term
PAT variables prevail
P
A
T
Macro Scales &
Long Term
Anthropogenic Biomes: Ellis and Ramankutty 2008
Smaller Scales & Shorter Term
Combining Agency & Structural Factors: SYPR Land Uses
1. Consumption agr: R2 0.8625
2. Commercial agr: R2 0.9557
Roy Chowdhury & Turner 2005: Annals AAG
Geist & Lambin 2002: BioScience
Two Pros-Cons
• Failed to address drivers of land change
across scales
– the search for general principles
• Changes in land systems axiomatically
involves changes in environmental services
– Drivers of land system change = drivers of
changes in environmental services
North-South borders
coincide with CBR &
900-1400 mm rf
gradient & ecocline
East-West borders
coincide with ca. 100-150 m
amsl -- meseta
Land Tenure and Ejidos & SYPR Sample
[ejido area = 18,703 km2]
19° 00´
N
19° 00´
25 KM
LEGEND
Ejido
18° 30´
Forest amplifications
toejidos outside SYPR
Private
National
Ejidos in sample
90° 30´
18° 00´
90° 00´
89° 30´
89° 00´
SYPR region
Variable
Spatial Outcomes
Transitions mid 1980s - mid 1990s
Forest to forest
Non forest to non forest
Non forest to forest
Forest to non forest
Ejido boundaries
27 km
Western subregion:
Silvituc
Eastern subregion:
Nicolas Bravo/Nuevo Becar
Southern subregion:
newer (agricultural) ejidos
Boundary
of the
Calakmul
Biosphere
Reserve
10 km
20 km
10 km
Decadal Factor & Outcome Change
Rueda 2010: Regional Environmental Science
From Drivers of Land-Cover Change to
Drivers of ES-HO Tradeoffs
“Green” ejido
Low levels of forest
disturbance (PD, ED &
LSI)
Env. service outcomes
consistent with CBR-MBC:
forest structure (+), biomasscarbon (+), biodiversity (+),
phosphorus capture (+),
bracken fern (-),
evapotranspiration (+)
Household outcomes less
consistent with HH wants:
on farm income (-),
concentrated farming (-) =
degradation; (-) major
alternatives to farming
required BUT NOT FOUND
beyond NGO;
forces off-farm labor (+?)
Commercial Agr. ejido
High levels of forest
disturbance (PD, ED & LSI)
Env. service outcomes
inconsistent with CBR-MBC:
forest structure (-), biomasscarbon (-), biodiversity (-),
phosphorus capture (-), bracken
fern (+), evapotranspiration (-)
Household outcomes
consistent with HH wants:
secondary forest (+), on-farm
income (+), NGO + other support
(-), self-investment in enlarging
HH portfolios [but winners-losers]
Scalar Issues
tradeoffs embedded in
scalar hierarchies
[1] some ES of the isolated
green ejido muted by the
surrounding agr. Eidos
[2] other ES affected by
totality of agr. ejidos
interacting with CC (loss of
regional evapotranspiration
in concert larger
desiccation)
Messages
• beyond Angelsen and Kaimowitz but
• blocked or muted general lessons of drivers of land
change owing to absence of concerted attention to
systematic, comparative scalar assessments (25 yrs
and no $ for it)
• whatever these lessons may be, moving from land
change to changes in ES will prove to be far more
complex and cannot be addressed adequately
without the scalar dimension