India Auto Expo, 2016

Transcription

India Auto Expo, 2016
09 FEB 2016
AUTOMOBILES | Sector Update
India Auto Expo, 2016
We visited the India Auto Expo 2016 in Greater Noida. While there was the expected showcasing of ‘what we
can make’, we highlight the handful of launches relevant for the listed Auto companies:
Key highlights

Maruti Suzuki – Maruti showcased the much-awaited mini-SUV VitaraBrezza. While this wasn’t the launch, and
hence pricing not announced, it will compete with other players in the sub-4 meter SUV space (ranging from
Mahindra TUV300 to Ford EcoSport). It will be sold through the regular Maruti outlet (as opposed to Nexa) and is
being launched only with a diesel variant for now (we reckon a petrol variant will follow). Given that it plugs a
huge gap in Maruti’s product portfolio, we believe it could clock a steady state volume run-rate of 6-7k per month.
That’s almost double of what its peers are currently doing. There’s significant value-add by Maruti’s India R&D
team, which coupled with the royalty being in INR terms will help keep royalty for this model <4% (vs. ~5.9% for
Maruti as a whole). Maruti also displayed a concept variant of its premium hatchback, the Ignis, which is due to
be launched this year. It will be positioned below the Baleno and launched through its Nexa dealership

Tata Motors – Tata displayed its small car Zica (name to be changed), Kite 5 which looked like a sedan version
of the Zica, concept of its upcoming compact SUV Nexon, and the Hexa MUV which seemed like an upgraded
version of the Tata Aria. Tata is doing an earnest job with all its new products. While it is unlikely to help recover
the entire lost market share in PVs (5% vs. peak of 19%), we believe the company can positively surprise given
the extremely low expectations

M&M – The company had already launched the TUV300 and KUV100 prior to the Expo (at times, OEMs like to
keep their launches away from the Expo muddle as standalone launches can make more of an impact). At the
Expo, M&M showcased its concept premium crossover, the XUV Aero. Designed with the help of its very own
Pininfarina, Italy, it borrowed a lot from the current XUV500 and looked very impressive. However, assuming a
high pricing point and targeting a niche buyer, it is unlikely to be a high volume product. Besides
Maruti’sVitaraBrezza, the Honda BRV and an upcoming small SUV by Hyundai adds to M&M’s competition

2Ws–Hero MotoCorp showcased more of its R&D capabilities with its first completely in-house developed
motorcycle
SplendoriSmart
110cc.
For
TVS
Motors,
we
saw
the
310cc
BMW
sports
bike
(conceptualized/designed by BMW, but made by TVS). Bajaj/Royal Enfield didn’t participate at the Expo

CVs –Ashok Leyland showcased a 49 ton truck, naming it Euro 6 which, as the name suggests, meets the
upcoming Euro 6 norms. Tata Motors launched a new range of commercial vehicles called Signa. These will over
time replace the company’s conventional range of M&HCVs.
Our view
Our preference for 4Ws (CVs and cars) over 2Ws over the last couple of years has played out. Still early stages of
the automotive cycle coupled with a benign base could ensure the same trend continues before growth normalizes
(reckon FY18-19). Our top picks remain Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors and Eicher Motors.
01
Sector Update
09 FEB 2016
AUTOMOBILES
Exhibit 1: Valuation summary
CMP
(Rs)
TP
(Rs)
881
91
2,361
600
772
18,128
125
2,578
1,217
3,723
269
140
337
288
828
115
2,402
772
848
20,178
140
2,681
1,383
4,505
262
172
502
282
Companies
Amara Raja
Ashok Leyland
Bajaj Auto
BalkrishnaInd
Bharat Forge
Eicher Motors
Exide Inds
Hero MotoCorp
Mah&Mah
Maruti Suzuki
MothersonSumi
Suprajit Engg
Tata Motors
TVS Motor
Reco
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
FDEPS (Rs)
FY16E
FY17E
30.0
3.9
122.2
59.2
33.2
419.5
7.2
163.1
59.9
173.9
9.7
6.1
53.0
9.9
41.4
6.8
143.7
59.7
43.1
655.5
7.9
178.5
76.8
214.2
12.9
9.5
64.8
17.6
PE (x)
FY16E
FY17E
29.3
23.2
19.3
10.1
23.3
43.2
17.4
15.8
13.8
21.4
27.7
22.7
6.4
29.0
21.3
13.4
16.4
10.0
17.9
27.7
15.7
14.4
10.7
17.4
20.9
14.6
5.2
16.3
EV/ E (x)
FY16E
FY17E
17.0
13.4
12.3
6.2
12.7
19.5
9.9
10.7
9.3
10.8
10.9
12.5
3.7
18.0
12.4
8.6
10.5
5.6
10.0
15.6
8.7
9.6
7.4
8.8
8.8
8.6
2.7
11.2
ROCE (%)
FY16E FY17E
38
8
43
17
21
28
20
59
19
22
25
22
25
22
37
20
45
18
20
38
21
63
21
28
28
28
20
23
Source: Axis Capital
Highlights – various segments
Utility vehicles
While it was small cars at Auto Expo 2012, sub compact sedans at 2014, UVs
stole the show at the 2016 Auto Expo.
MSIL VitaraBrezza
MSIL enters the compact SUV
segment with the VitaraBrezza,
based on its iV-4 concept. It
will be powered by existing
DDiS 1.3 litre diesel engine
paired to a 5-speed manual
transmission. ABS and front
airbags will come as standard
across the Z level variants,
while the top of the line ZDi+
will be fitted with SmartPlay
touchscreen
system.
Management indicated
its
study showed that enquiries
were largely for diesel variants
but the company is also
working on the petrol version.
Aggressive pricing is expected
as MSIL looks to take on
established players in the
segment.
‚VitaraBrezza has been
conceptualized,
designed and developed
in India using Suzuki’s
global development
processes. We believe
this model appeals to
Indian customers in its
design, packaging and
features,‛
Kenichi Ayukawa,
MD and CEO
Source: Axis Capital
2
Sector Update
09 FEB 2016
AUTOMOBILES
Tata Nexon
After its showcase as a concept at the Auto Expo 2014, Tata has unveiled a
production-ready version of sub 4 metre compact SUV Nexon, entering the fast
growing segment that contains the Ford Ecosport and VitaraBrezza. The Nexon is
offered with a 1.5 litre diesel and a 1.2 litre turbocharged petrol variant, both
powered through a 6 speed manual gearbox with three drive modes. Design of the
Nexon follows Tata’s new ‘Impact’ philosophy, which includes a ‘Chrome Humanity
Display’ on the upper grille, LED taillights and floating roof, with many parts of unit
are customizable.
Nexon – Side view
Nexon – front view
Source: Axis Capital
Source: Axis Capital
Exhibit 2: Brezza&Nexon vs. competition
Specifications
MarutiBrezza
Tata Nexon
Hyundai Creta
M&M TUV 300
Ford EcoSport
Renault Duster
7-10*
6-10*
10.6-17.2
6.9-9.12
7.65-9.53
9.07-11.39
Engine size
4cyl; 1500
3cyl;
4cyl; 1,591cc
3cyl; 1,493cc
4cyl; 1495cc
4cyl; 1461cc
Gear box
5-speed M
5-speed M; AMT
6-speed M; AMT
5-speed M; AMT
5-speed M
5-speed M; CVT
84
121
83
89
84
1,350
1,590
1,290
1,308
4,270
3,995
3,999
4,315
Ex showroom Price (Lacs)
Power (bhp)
Kerb weight (kgs)
Length (mm)
3,995
Width (mm)
1,790
1,780
1,835
1,765
1,822
Height (mm)
1,640
1,630
1,839
1,708
1,695
198
190
184
200
205
2,500
2,590
2,680
2,520
2,673
328
405
384
346
346
15-19
19
23
20
5
7
5
5
Ground clearence (mm)
Wheelbase (mm)
Boot space (ltrs)
3,995
Fuel efficiency (ARAI; km/l)
Seating caapcity
Source: Company, Axis Capital
5
5
Note: * is indicative pricing
3
Sector Update
09 FEB 2016
AUTOMOBILES
InnovaCrysta
The second generation Toyota
Innova, based on an all-new
platform, will be powered by 2.4litre GD series engine (replacing
the current 2.5-litre KD). It will be
offered with a 5-speed manual
gearbox, but with a 6-speed
automatic variant as well. The
differences between the current
Innova and the new one are
immediately apparent and the
styling is a huge step up from the
current model.Crysta looks quite
premium than the current car and
is clearly positioned towards the
personal owner rather than fleet
runners.
Crysta much
stylish than
current Innova
More spacious
as well
Source: Axis Capital
Honda BR-V
Based on its Mobilio platform, Honda’s 7-seat BR-V is larger than M&M’s TUV300,
with the design influenced by Honda’s earlier CRV. The MPV will be powered by a
1.5 litre engine for both fuel variants, producing 115bhp and comes attached to a
6-speed manual transmission, with a CVT option.
BRV – front grill is impressive
Side view – higher ground clearance than Mobilio
Source: Axis Capital
Source: Axis Capital
4
09 FEB 2016
Sector Update
AUTOMOBILES
Compact Sedans
Tata Kite 5
Tata Motors displayed Kite 5, a
‘sporty compact sedan’ that
targets a younger demographic.
The sub-four metre sedan shares
Tata’s 1.2-litre Revotron petrol
and a 1.05-litre Revotorq with
the Zica, while styling cues are
also fairly similar to the
hatchback. Details on price and
power output have yet to be
revealed.
Source: Axis Capital
VW Ameo
VW India showcased its first ever sub-four meter sedan made exclusively for India.
The Ameo, which will go on sale in H2CY16, comes with two fuel options, a 1.2
litre 3-cylinder MPI engine and a 1.3 litre 4-cylinder TDI. The diesel variant is also
available with a 7-speed DSG transmission, in addition to the standard 5-speed
manual gearbox. Manufactured at its plant in Chakan, the Ameo is rich in features
which includes a touchscreen multimedia system and reverse camera in addition to
various safety features (front and rear airbags, ABS etc), which could help it
differentiate with its competitors such as MSIL’s Dzire and Tata’s Zest.
‚India is an important
market and will become
more important in future.
A car specially designed
for India, made for India
and made in India‛,
JurgenStackmann, Board
member for Sales &
Marketing
VW Ameo
Chevrolet Essentia on the Beat platform
Source: Axis Capital
Source: Axis Capital
Chevrolet Essentia
Chevrolet India has released a concept version of its own compact sedan, the Beat
Essentia, which will be put into production in 2017. The company has said that
users will be able to fit five people and luggage into the Essentia ‘without
compromising on style’. Using the platform of the Beat, the ‘notchback’ will be fitted
with reverse cameras, ABS and airbags as well as infotainment systems compatible
Apple carplay and Android Auto software.
5
09 FEB 2016
Sector Update
AUTOMOBILES
Two wheelers
Executive segment
Honda Motorcycle - Navi
HMSI has launched Navi in the 110cc motorcycle segment, the company’s first
product to be completely developed by its domestic R&D unit. The Navi is powered
by Honda’s Eco Technology engine reaching a top speed of 81 km/h. With the
unit priced at Rs 39,500 and bookings made available through an Android
application, Honda is hoping the Navi will help tap into the youth demographic.
Navi – quasi scooter
Specifications impressive
Source: Axis Capital
Source: Axis Capital
Hero Splendor iSmart 110 impressive looking
Hero has revealed an updated version
of its Splendor with an updated engine,
chassis and body frame. The major
update is the introduction of i3S
technology, an idle stop and start system
that helps improve fuel efficiency.It is
equipped with an air-cooled single
cylinder engine capable of producing
9.1 PS at 7500 rpm and torque of 9
Nm at 5,500 rpm. Aesthetically, the
Splendor has been updated to features
graphics not available in the earlier model, while also showcasing modern head
and tail lamp designs.
‚With India having the
world’s youngest
population, it is
imperative for Honda to
connect with youth.
NAVI will take forward
Honda’s fun DNA in
India‛, YS Guleria, SVP
Sales & Marketing
Splendor iSmart 110, the
first motorcycle to have
been developed
completely in-house by
Hero’s own R&D team,
thereby carrying forward
the legacy of Splendor the largest selling bike in
the world,‛
PawanMunjal,Chariman,
MD & CEO
TVS Victor re-launched
TVS’ entry level motorcycle Victor has been re-introduced in the Indian
market. The unit will be powered by an 110cc engine, just as the first
version launched in 2001. TVS will increase its presence in the
competitive 75-110cc bracket, as the Victor joins its other 3 models Max
4R, Star Sport and Star City 110.
6
09 FEB 2016
Sector Update
AUTOMOBILES
Premium segment
TVS Apache RTR 200
Inspired by Draken X21 concept seen at Auto Expo
2014, TVS Motor’s new Apache RTR 200will be driven
by a single-cylinder four-valve liquid-cooled engine that
willproduce 25-30bhp of power. This is the company’s
first offering influenced by its contract manufacturing
partnership with BMW.
BMW G 310R
BMW showcased the new G 310 R street-fighter
(revealed last year) which is jointly developed and
manufactured at TVS’s manufacturing location in India.
The motorcycle is its smallest offering designed
especially for the emerging markets. Our interactions
will BMW indicates that it has localized the
components whilst maintaining the quality.
UM motorcycles
US-based UM Motorcycles has forayed into the Indian market with the launch of its
Renegade range of cruiser motorcycles, priced up to Rs 1.7 lakh (ex-showroom
Delhi).The company has introduced three models - Renegade Sport S, Renegade
Commando and Renegade Classic. The models will be assembled at its Uttarkhand
plant and company indicated that it has already achieved 70% localization.
UM cruiser motorcycle
UM motorcycle
Source: Axis Capital
Source: Axis Capital
7
09 FEB 2016
Sector Update
AUTOMOBILES
Hero Xtreme
Hero revealed a 200cc version of its premium motorcycle Xtreme, with some
additional features alongside the boost in power. These included LED pilot lights,
ABS, monoshock suspension and a digital instrument console. Its new single
cylinder air-cooled engine produces 18.6 PS through a five-speed transmission
system. Hero confirmed that the new Xtreme will go on sale in 2017.
Xtremeimpresses
HX250R
Source: Axis Capital
Source: Axis Capital
Hero HX250R
After being shown first at the 2014 Auto Expo, the 249cc motorcycle has been
officially unveiled two years later, delayed by financial issues with partner firm Erik
Buell Racing. Hero HX250R’s liquid cooled engine produces 31bhp and 26Nm of
torque through a six-speed gearbox.
8
Sector Update
09 FEB 2016
AUTOMOBILES
Passenger car - hatchbacks
Tata Zica
Tata Motors launched Zica, its
first hatchback offering under
the HORIZONNEXT product
strategy. The car is available in
two
variants,
a
1.2-litre
Revotron petrol and a 1.5-litre
Revotorq, paired with a 5speed
manual
gearbox,
achieving 84 & 69 bhp
respectively. Zica will come
equipped
with
multi-drive
modes,
HARMAN-developed
infotainment
system,
rear
parking sensors, USB, AUX & Bluetooth audio support among others.
‚Tata Motors IMPACT
Design - as a key focus
for the company's
passenger vehicle
strategy. The new,
youthful, energetic and
bold character of the
passenger vehicles by
Tata Motors is sure to
make a lasting impact on
our customers and on the
Indian roads,‛
MayankPareek,
President,
Passenger Vehicle
Maruti Suzuki Ignis
Unveiled at the 2015 Tokyo Motor Show, MSIL’s crossover
Igniswill join the S-cross in this segment of MSIL’s Nexa portfolio.
The Igniswill likely be powered by 1.2 and 1.3 litre petrol and
diesel engines, with the diesel variant likely to be the 1.3 litreDDiS
unit seen on the VitaraBrezza. In terms of power train, a CVT
gearbox may be on offer as with the model currently being sold in
Japan, in addition to manual gearbox. Sales will begin in H2CY16
during the festive period.
Exhibit 3: Competition in hatchbacks increasing
Specifications
Ex showroom Price
Engine size
Gear box
Power (bhp)
Tata Zica
MarutiCelerio
Maruti Swift
Mahindra KUV 100
3.9-5.9
3.9-5.8
4.64-7.48
4.42-6.76
3cyl; 1,047cc
3cyl; 998cc
4cyl; 1,197cc
3cyl; 1,198cc
5-speed M
5-speed M
5-speed M
5-speed M
81
69
67
83
Kerb weight (kgs)
1,080
900
960-1080
Length (mm)
3,746
3,600
3,850
3,675
Width (mm)
1,647
1,600
1,695
1,715
Height (mm)
1,535
1,560
1,530
1,655
170
165
170
170
2,400
2,425
2,430
2,385
Ground clearence (mm)
Wheelbase (mm)
Boot space (ltrs)
Fuel efficiency (ARAI; km/l)
Seating capacity
240
235
204
243
23.5
23.1
20.4
22.3
5
5
5
5
Source: Company, Axis Capital
9
09 FEB 2016
Sector Update
AUTOMOBILES
Interesting concept launches
XUV Aero
Mahindra’s XUV Aero concept
showcased a futuristic ‘coupeinspired’ cross-over, aesthetically
influenced
by
the
XUV500.
Management said that the model
could go into production, but would
take a decision based on public
reception of the concept. The XUV
Aero was built by Pininfarina, the
Italian PV design firm now under the
Mahindra
group’s
management.
Powering the Aero is a 210
bhpmHawk
paired
with
a
turbocharger
and
advanced
combustion engine not available on
other M&M models, capable of
achieving 0-100 km/h in under six
seconds, according to the company.
Source: Axis Capital
Hyundai sub compact UV
Hyundai unveiled a new concept sub-compact SUV, HNB14, which will slot in
between two of its more popular SUV offerings- the smaller Hyundai i20 Active
crossover and the Hyundai Creta. The UV is expected to share its engines with other
offerings from the Hyundai family such as the i20 Active and Creta.
Hyundai sub compact UV
MarutiBaleno RS
Source: Axis Capital
Source: Axis Capital
MSIL Baleno RS
The sport version of the Baleno, the Baleno RS is equipped with a 3-cylinder 1 litre
turbocharged Boosterjet petrol engine generating 110 bhp and 170 nm of torque.
The model will be initially exported and will become available in India during the
festive period during H2CY16.
10
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registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for
sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors.
The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should
not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and
alternations to this document as may be required from time to time without any prior notice. The views expressed are those of
the analyst(s) and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein.
Copyright in this document vests with Axis Securities Limited.
Axis Securities Limited, Corporate office: Unit No. 2, Phoenix Market City, 15, LBS Road, Near Kamani Junction, Kurla (west),
Mumbai-400070, Tel No. – 18002100808, Regd. off.- Axis House, 8th Floor, Wadia International Centre, Pandurang Budhkar
Marg, Worli, Mumbai – 400 025. Compliance Officer: Anand Shaha, Email: [email protected], Tel No: 02242671582.

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