SEASONAL FORECASTING USING WEATHER LORE

SEASONAL
FORECASTING
USING WEATHER
LORE
Howard Oliver
Matthew 16, 2-3. (King James,1611)
Solar Halo:- “Rain on the way”
SEASONAL FORECASTING
CONDITIONS DURING ONE SEASON
INDICATE THE CONDITIONS DURING
A FOLLOWING SEASON.
Look for:
Continuity or contrast between seasons.
Long-term averaging out of weather types.
One weather type (wet, dry, hot, cold, windy) in
one season indicating a different weather
type in a subsequent season.
THEOPHRASTUS, 300BC
Google images
CONTRAST BETWEEN
SEASONS - RAINFALL
• If there is much rain in the
Winter, the Spring is generally
dry.
• If the winter is dry the spring is
rainy.
TEMPERATURE
• If the late Autumn is unusually
bright the Spring is cold as a
general rule.
• If Winter sets in early it closes
early and the Spring is fair.
PRE-SEASON INDICATOR OF
SUBSEQUENT SEASON
• When the scarlet oaks are
very full of berries they
generally indicate a severe
Winter.
Pliny, 1st cent AD
(Natural History of the World)
A fair and dry autumn
brings in always a windy
winter.
Francis Bacon (1561-1626)
Wikipedia image
SEASONAL PRECURSORS
• Generally a moist and cool
summer portends a hard
winter.
• A warm open winter portends a
hot dry summer.
A COMPLEX MODEL?
• A hot and dry summer and
autumn, especially if the heat
and drought extend far into
September, portend an open
beginning of winter, and cold to
succeed towards the latter part
of winter and the beginning of
spring.
WIND AND RAIN
• A serene Autumn denotes a windy
winter;
• A windy winter, a rainy spring;
• A rainy spring, a serene summer;
• A serene summer, a windy autumn;
So that the air on a balance is
seldom a debtor to itself.
John Pointer, 1723
Summary of current
knowledge including
prognostications and
causes of the Aurora
XX1V
SPRING AND SUMMER
If the last eighteen days of
February and ten days of March
be for the most part rainy, then
the Spring and Summer
quarters are likely to be so too.
XXV
WINTER
If the latter end of October and
beginning of November be for
the most part warm and rainy,
then January and February are
likely to be frosty and cold,
except after a very dry Summer
Version by Kimble and Webb, 1946
John Mills FRS, 1773
Joseph Taylor, 1813
Included use of published data sets
for England and Ireland to derive odds
for various seasonal conditions as
indicated by the previous season.
Meteorological observations and
explanations of some possible
scientific principles behind the
Shepherd of Banbury’s Rules
Orlando Whistlecraft, 1840
“A long course of East wind in Autumn
will be succeeded by a severe winter, and
the same wind in Spring generally brings
a dry summer”.
Forecasting Winter
Conditions
Some Traditional Sayings
(As November 21st , so is the winter)
WINTER WEATHER INDICATORS
• Warm October, cold February.
• As the weather in October, so in
March.
• October and November cold
indicate January and February
will be mild and dry.
• At Christmas meadows green, at
Easter covered with frost.
NATURAL EVENTS
• If there’s ice in November that will
bear a duck, there’ll be nothing
after but sludge and muck.
• If ducks do slide at Hallontide
At Christmas they will swim.
If ducks do swim at Hallontide
At Christmas they will slide.
MORE NATURAL EVENTS
• If in the fall of the leaves in
October, many of them wither on
the boughs it betokens a frosty
winter and much snow.
• When blackbirds sing before
Christmas she will cry before
Candlemas [2nd Feb.].
GENERAL SEASONAL WEATHER
LORE PRINCIPLE
As a general rule, long term
observations and experience may
suggest that:
A main weather type “A” in one
season (using various indicators)
tends to be followed by a main
weather type “A” or “B” during the
next season.
TRYING TO UNDERSTAND
Continuity or change in longterm driving conditions of
weather systems which could,
for example, be due to Jet
Stream patterns controlled by
ocean temperatures, largescale air pressure anomalies
etc.
“LONG RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS” E.B. GARRIOTT
US WEATHER BUREAU,1904
“Advances in the period and accuracy
of weather forecasts depend on a more
exact study and understanding of
atmospheric pressure over great areas,
and a determination of the influences
that are responsible for normal and
abnormal distributions of air pressure
over the earth’s surface.”
E. B. Garriott,
“ Meteorologists
are not antagonistic to
honest, well-directed efforts to solve the
problem of long-range forecasting.
They encourage all work in this field
and condemn only those who, for
notoriety or profit, or through
misdirected zeal and unwarranted
assumptions, bring the science of
meteorology into disrepute.”
SOME OF THE 28
SIGNS OF RAIN
Edward Jenner
(1749-1823)
Illustrated with Google images
Low barometer, Spiders about
Lunar halo
Whole rainbows
Closing pimpernells,
Crying peacocks
Busy flies,
Low-flying swallows
Cats wipe their jaws
Fish rise to catch flies
Numerous bright glow-worms
Toads out at dusk
Frogs lose yellow crest
Blackbirds have shrill song
Dogs eat grass
Rooks glide high
‘T will surely rain,
I see with sorrow,
Our jaunt must be put
off tomorrow!
1677 LAW
“Rainmakers
and Weather
Seers will be burned at
the stake”
(Repealed in 1959!)
[Weather, Constantino, 2009]