Koldioxidrelaterad skatt på bilar Impacts from CO2 differentiated

Transcription

Koldioxidrelaterad
skatt på bilar
Impacts from CO2 differentiated vehicle taxes
on CO2 emissions from passenger cars
Malene Sand Jespersen
Jørgen Jordal-Jørgensen
Nicolai Kristensen
Anders Pontus Matstroms
5187
Beställningsadress:
Naturvårdsverket
Kundtjänst
106 48 Stockholm
Tfn: 08-698 12 00
Fax: 08-698 15 15
E-post: [email protected]
Internet-hemsida: www.naturvardsverket.se
Miljöbokhandeln: www.miljobokhandeln.com
isbn 91-620-5187-3
issn 0282-7298
© Naturvårdsverket
Tryck: Naturvårdsverkets repro 2002-03
Upplaga: 300 ex
Koldioxidrelaterad
skatt på bilar
Malene Sand Jespersen
Jørgen Jordal-Jørgensen
Nicolai Kristensen
Anders Pontus Matstroms
Förord
Naturvårdsverket till uppgift att utveckla styrmedel så att miljömålen om
en hållbar utveckling kan nås och Energimyndigheten att driva på utvecklingen för effektivare energianvändning och minskad klimatpåverkan. De
genomsnittliga koldioxidutsläppen från nya bilar är högre i Sverige än i
övriga EU-länder och för att målet om begränsad klimatpåverkan ska kunna nås, är det viktigt att minska utsläppen av koldioxid från trafiken.
Som ett led i detta arbete presenterar Naturvårdsverket och Energimyndigheten här en studie om hur fordons- och försäljningsskatter på bilar kan
bidra till minskade koldioxidutsläpp. COWI har genomfört studien. Här
analyseras konsekvenserna av två scenarier – att omforma den befintliga
fordonsskatten genom att inkludera en koldioxidberoende del och att införa
en försäljningsskatt. De samhällsekonomiska effekterna analyseras ur ett
kort-, medium- och långsiktigt perspektiv. Studiens resultat baseras i huvudsak på modellbaserade beräkningar.
Rapporten har utarbetats på uppdrag av en projektgrupp med deltagare från
Naturvårdsverkets enhet för kommunikationer och energi bestående av
Reino Abrahamsson och Larsolov Olsson samt Peter Kasche från Energimyndigheten. Medverkande från COWI har varit Malene Sand Jespersen,
Jørgen Jordal-Jørgensen och Nicolai Kristensen. Från VTI (Väg- och
transportforskningsinstitutet) medverkade Anders Pontus Matstroms.
Rapporten är framtagen i ett nära samarbete mellan COWI, Naturvårdsverket och Energimyndigheten. Bedömningar, slutsatser och rekommendationer som framförs i rapporten står COWI för. Dessa delas inte nödvändigtvis av Naturvårdsverket och Energimyndigheten.
Stockholm i mars 2002
Impacts from CO2 differentiated sales tax on CO2 emissions from passenger cars
iii
Table of Contents
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
Sammanfattning
Slutsatser
Syfte, studiens omfattning och organisation
Definition av skattescenarierna
Tillvägagångssätt
Resultat
1
1
6
6
8
13
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
Executive summary
Main conclusions
Purpose, scope of study and study organisation
Definition of the tax scenarios
Study approach
Results
21
21
26
26
29
34
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
Introduction
Background and purpose
Approach and study organisation
Outline of this report
43
43
44
45
4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
Model and methodology
The overall model framework and methodology
The car choice model
The scrapping module
The car fleet module
Socio-economics
49
49
51
56
58
59
5
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
Data and model inputs
Taxes and charges
Vehicle sales
Scrapping
Vehicle fleet
Socio-economics of car buyers
61
61
61
63
64
68
iv
5.6
5.7
Socio-economics assessment
Elasticities
72
72
6
6.1
6.2
The tax scenarios
Reference level
The two main scenarios
77
77
85
7
7.1
7.2
7.3
Results of the scenarios
Base scenario and the registration tax scenario
Base scenario and circulation tax scenario
Registration tax scenario - Sensitivity Analysis
87
87
90
92
8
8.1
8.2
Socio-economic implications
Private households
Employment effects
101
101
108
9
9.1
9.2
9.3
Cost Benefit Analysis
Total cost benefit analysis
Decomposed effect from CO2 differentiation
Concluding comments
115
115
124
128
10
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
Conclusions
CO2 reducing potentials
Policy implications
Applicability of study results
129
129
133
134
135
11
References
137
Table of Appendices
Annexes
A. The Car Choice Model
B. Model validation
C. Sensitivity Analysis Tables
1
Sammanfattning
1.1
Slutsatser
1
Denna studie har undersökt effekterna av att använda fordonsskatter som medel
för att reducera personbilars koldioxidutsläpp. Studiens resultat baseras i huvudsak på modellbaserade beräkningar. Beräkningar har gjorts för att analysera
den potentiella koldioxidreduktionen och andra effekter i två skattescenarier. I
första scenariot antas att en koldioxidberoende skatt på bilköp (en försäljningsskatt) införs och i det senare scenariot analyserar man effekterna av en koldioxidberoende skatt på bilägarskap (fordonsskatt).
Innan man redogör för slutsatserna är det dock nödvändigt att redogöra för de
grundläggande principerna för de undersökta skattescenarierna.
Referensnivå
Bestämma referensnivån
Valet av referensnivå har varit en avgörande punkt i utformningen av ovan
nämnda koldioxidskatter. Referensnivån bestämmer för varje bilstorlek nivån
på koldioxidutsläpp som ger oförändrad bilskatt. Koldioxidutsläppen mäts i
antal gram koldioxid per kilometer. Om koldioxidutsläppen från en speciell bilstorlek överstiger referensnivån kommer detta resultera i en skatteökning och
om koldioxidutsläppen är mindre än referensnivån kommer detta resultera i en
skatteminskning. Följaktligen beräknas skattebasen som: koldioxidutsläpp för
aktuell bilstorlek minus referensnivån för koldioxidutsläpp och skatten fastställs som ett fast belopp i SEK per gram. Resultaterande skatt kan bli positiv,
negativ eller noll beroende på skillnaden mellan utsläppsnivån från aktuell bil
och gällande referensnivå. Fordonsskatten består av den nya hypotetiska koldioxidskatten och den existerande fordonsskatten och systemet är utformat så att
den totala fordonsskatten för en bestämd bil aldrig kan vara negativ. Den nya
hypotetiska försäljningskatten antas bestå av en värdebaserad skattedel och en
koldioxidskatt och i likhet med fordonsskatten kan den totala försäljningsskatten inte bli negativ. Med andra ord, systemen tillåter inte subventioner.
En ren koldioxidskatt skulle leda till en påtaglig storleksminskning (downsizing)1 vilket skulle göra de mindre och mest koldioxideffektiva bilarna mycket
billigare än de större bilarna jämfört med dagens situation. Även om sådan storleksminskning kan utgöra ett effektivt sätt för att reducera koldioxidutsläpp kan
1
Termen storleksminskning kan användas för att beskriva situationen då bilköpare skulle
tendera att köpa mindre bilar än vad de gör idag vilket skulle resultera i att genomsnittstorleken för bilarna i bilparken skulle minska.
2
detta leda till konflikt med andra samhällsmål. Beträffande modellberäkningarna i denna studie har man utformat en referensnivå som tillåter viss storleksminskning, men endast i storleksordningen 25 %. I praktiska termer innebär
detta att referensnivån definieras huvudsakligen som en funktion av bilstorleken, där storleken mäts som bilens markarea.
Valet av nivå på storleksminskning i denna studie utesluter inte att man beaktar
även andra nivåer av storleksminskning som grund för referensnivån.
Försäljningsskatten antas bestå av både en värdebaserad del (10% av bilens
värde) och en koldioxidberoende del (880 SEK per antal gram koldioxid över
referensnivån och beräknad som ett negativt värde i det fall utsläppsnivån är
under referensnivån). Den totala försäljningsskatten som bilköparen skall betala
kan inte vara negativ. Försäljningsskattens koldioxiddel kan dock vara negativ.
Fordonsskatten definieras som existerande fordonsskatt plus en koldioxidberoende del. Den koldioxidberoende delen är satt till 44 SEK per gram koldioxid
över referensnivån och till ett negativt värde när utsläppsnivån är under referensnivån. Den antagna ändringen av fordonsskatten är endast tänkt att gälla för
nya bilar och den totala fordonsskatten kan inte vara negativ.
Resultat av scenarieberäkningar
Undersökningarna av de två skattescenarierna pekar på följande slutsatser:
•
Den antagna försäljningsskatten ger en årlig reduktion av bilparkens totala
koldioxidutsläpp i storleksordningen 5% under 20 år. Sett i ett kortare tidsperspektiv är de årliga reduktionerna mindre dvs. strax över 1% under 5 år.
De potentiella reduktionerna är större än de som de antagna ändringarna av
fordonsskatten ger, men de uppnås huvudsakligen genom en minskning av
antalet bilar i bilparken. Den genomsnittliga utsläppsnivån per bil (gram
koldioxid/km/bil) är nästan konstant i detta scenario och bilarnas genomsnittsålder ökar med ca ett halvt år som ett resultat av minskad nybilsförsäljning.
•
Fordonsskatten skulle ge en årlig reduktion i storleksordningen 2% under
20 år och ca 0,5% under 5 år. Trots att denna reduktion är mindre än den
för försäljningsskatten innebär den dock en mer påtaglig reduktion av den
genomsnittliga utsläppsnivån per bil. I detta fall skulle de genomsnittliga
utsläppen reduceras med 2,5% under 20 år jämfört med obetydlig reduktion genom försäljningsskatten. Dessutom påverkas inte bilparkens storlek.
•
Försäljningen av svensktillverkade bilar (dvs. Volvo och SAAB) på den
svenska marknaden kommer, i båda scenarierna, att påverkas i större omfattning än den totala bilförsäljningen. Detta på grund av att svensktillverkade bilar typiskt är större och mindre koldioxideffektiva än genomsnittsbilen. Denna effekt kommer att vara tydligast för försäljningsskatten som
ett resultat av minskningen av bilparken (med ca 4% under ett 20 års perspektiv).
•
Ingen av de antagna skattesystemen leder till påtaglig ändring av andelen
dieselbilar i bilparken.
•
3
Företagsbilar är mindre priskänsliga än privatbilar. Dock är företagsbilar
mer känsliga för ändringar i årskostnader, dvs. bränsleskatt och fordonsskatt. Därför står privatbilar för 70% av koldioxidreduktionerna i försäljningsskattscenariet medan företagsbilar svarar för 60% av koldioxid reduktionerna i fordonsskattescenariet.
Beträffande det senare är det viktigt att komma ihåg att de årliga kostnaderna
består av en fordonsskatt och bränslekostnader. Man räknar med att en ökning
av fordonsskatten med t.ex. 1000 SEK skulle ge samma effekt som en ökning
av den årliga bränsleskatten med samma belopp. Vidare räknar man med att
ändringar i fordonsskatten helt avspeglas i beslutet av företagsbilköp.
Idag avspeglas inte den årliga fordonsskatten som företagen betalar för att ha
företagsbil i den anställdes privata beskattning. Om denna policy upprätthålls
kommer modellberäkningarna i denna studie att överskatta effekten av fordonsskattscenarierna. Om man antar att 33% av alla företagsbilar är andelen där den
anställde själv bestämmer vilken bil han/hon vill ha, då kommer överskattningen uppgå till 20% av den totala koldioxidreduktionen.
Införandet av en koldioxidberoende del av fordonsskatten skulle samtidigt göra
några av de mest ineffektiva bilarna mycket dyra i form av årlig företagsbeskattning. Därför skulle vissa företag inte längre erbjuda sina anställda att ha
företagsbil. Den reella överskattningen skulle därmed förmodligen blir avsevärt
lägre än 20%.
Eftersom företagsbilar utgör ca 50% av nybilsförsäljningen och de är känsligare
för de årliga kostnaderna, är dessa antaganden viktiga.
Slutsatser
Man bör vara försiktig vid jämförelsen av de två systemen, då de påverkar
bilköparnas och bilägarnas skattebörda på olika sätt. Man kan dock dra vissa
viktiga allmänna slutsatser.
Analyserna visar tydligt på vikten av att skilja mellan skattenivåer och skattedifferentiering. Grovt sett påverkar skattenivån den allmänna prisstrukturen i
sig, dvs. den gör bilarna relativt dyrare jämfört med andra konsumentvaror.
Därför påverkar skattenivån människors val att ha en bil eller inte. Som jämförelse påverkar diffentiering människors val men har mindre inverkan på den
allmänna prisstrukturen (när man jämför bilar med andra konsumentvaror).
Försäljningsskatten pålägger bilköparna nya skattebördor då den innebär införandet av en ny skatt. Ökningen av skattenivån påverkar bilparkens storlek negativt eftersom den leder till en generell ökning av bilpriserna i relation till andra konsumentvaror. Detta leder till minskad skrotning och minskad försäljning
av nya bilar. Förutom en ökning av skattenivån, består den antagna utformningen av den nya försäljningsskatten även av en skattedifferentierad del, den koldioxidberoende delen av skatten. Denna del medför ett enhetligt pris (skatt) för
4
varje g koldioxid som släpps ut per kilometer.2 Denna del av skatten påverkar
inte antalet bilar utan endast människors bilval.
I fordonsskattescenariot antar man endast förändringar i utformningen av existerande skatt och därigenom påverkas inte den genomsnittliga skattebördan.
Därför påverkas inte antalet bilar utan endast människor val av biltyp. Om fordonsskattens genomsnittsnivå ökas skulle detta inverka på antalet bilar och därigenom ge en ytterligare koldioxidreducerande effekt. En ökning skulle även
leda till en mer specifik differentiering och därmed även en ökad inverkan på
bilvalet.
Sammanfattningsvis har studien visat att:
•
Den antagna fordonsskatten kan ge årliga koldioxidreduktioner i storleksordningen 2% under en 20-års period utan att ge avsevärt skeva effekter på
bilparkens struktur. Trots att scenarierna visar på en övergång från svensktillverkade bilar till andra märken så är detta skifte relativt litet. I realiteten
kommer antagligen den svenska biltillverkningsindustrin att rätta sig efter
denna förändring bland annat genom att utveckla och producera biltyper
som är mera anpassade till de nya förhållandena.
•
Försäljningsskatten kommer att ge större koldioxidreduktion men kommer
även att ge mer specifika motsatta effekter såsom reducerad bilpark, minskad försäljning av svenska bilmärken och ökad genomsnittsålder för bilar.
Det senare kan visserligen vägas upp av införandet av ett skrotningspremiesystem men detta måste utformas med försiktighet för att garantera
dess effekt i relation till koldioxidmålet.
För att säkerställa kvaliteten i studiens resultat beträffande försäljningsskatten
har känslighetsanalyser använts. Analyserna visar att ovannämnda slutsatser är
mycket starka beträffande en mängd antaganden, däribland koldioxidskattenivån, den allmänna skattenivån och skrotningselasticiteten. Däremot är resultaten mycket känsliga för storleken på bilparkens generella priselasticitet. Den
använda elasticiteten ligger på –0,6 och bygger på resultaten från andra relevanta studier. Elasticiteten visar att en ökning av bilpriserna med 10% skulle leda
till en minskning av bilparken med 6%. En ändring av elasticitetsnivån till –
0,35 skulle ge en koldioxidminskning med 3% istället för 5% när elasticiteten
är –0,6. Orsaken till detta är att en lägre elasticitet innebär en mindre inverkan
på bilförsäljningen och därmed på bilparkens storlek..
Kostnadsnyttoanalys
Försäljningsskattescenariot och fordonsskattescenariots konsekvenser för
samhället har analyserats med hjälp av en kostnadsnyttoanalys. Analysen visar
att kostnaderna, som följer av införandet av försäljningsskatten, kommer att
överstiga fördelarna. Detta framför allt på grund av en minskning i bilparksstorleken. Förutom att den minskade bilparken ger koldioxidreduktioner ger den
även en påtaglig välfärdsförlust. Värdet av denna välfärdsförlust utgör i själva
verket den huvudsakliga kostnadsdelen av försäljningsskatten. Storleken på den
negativa nettovinsten är dock beroende av det pris som används för att värdera
2
ovanför den bestämda referensnivån
5
de uppnådda koldioxidreduktionerna. Som jämförelse pekar kostnadsnyttoanalysen på att fordonsskattescenariot kommer att innebära en nettovinst för samhället. Den kommer att ge mindre skadliga effekter samtidigt som den medför
påtagliga koldioxidreduktioner. Reduktionerna är dock mindre än de uppnådda
i försäljningsskattescenariot. Nettofördelarna i detta scenario kommer att öka
över tiden i och med att nya mer bränsleeffektiva bilar kommer att penetrera
bilparken över tiden.
Kostnadsnyttoanalyserna har även värderat enbart effekterna av den
koldioxiddifferentierade delen av de två skatterna, dvs. man bortser från den
effekt på priset som enbart är en effekt av försäljningsskattens införande.
Analysen visar att koldioxiddiffentieringen, i båda fallen, skulle ge en
nettovinst för samhället men effekten är fortfarande störst för fordonsskatten.
Befolkningen på landsbygden tenderar att köpa större och mindre bränsleeffektiva bilar jämfört med tätortsbefolkningen. Landsortsbefolkningen kommer
därför att påverkas i större omfattning av skattescenarierna än tätortsbefolkningen. Beräkningarna har också visat att barnfamiljer tenderar att påverkas
mer än familjer utan barn. Trots att dessa effekter inte utgör en del av kostnadsnyttoanalysen, då de huvudsakligen relaterar till problemställningar beträffande
fördelning, visar de dock på att skattescenarierna kommer att ge fördelningseffekter. Beräkningar visar också att aktivitetsnivån i den svenska biltillverkningsindustrin kommer att påverkas negativt. Detta är mest påtagligt för försäljningsskatten och kommer att öka ytterligare om man även tar med i beräkningen effekten på relaterade industrier. Effekterna på den ekonomiska aktiviteten har endast betydelse för lönsamheten i den utsträckningen dessa aktiviteter
inte ersätts av andra aktiviteter någon annanstans i ekonomin. Återigen visar
det dock på att det också kommer att innebära snedvridande effekter för industrin.
Policyeffekter
Denna studie har visat att fordonsbeskattning kan påverka koldioxidutsläppen.
Den har också visat att en fordonsskatt troligen skulle vara det mest effektiva
instrumentet att använda i detta fall. Det finns dock andra sätt att påverka bilparkens koldioxidutsläpp, bland annat genom att påverka körkostnaden såsom
drivmedelskostnader och vägavgifter. Dessa alternativ har dock inte analyserats
här.
Kravet på beräkningarna i denna studie är att skatterna högst får ge en bilstorleksminskning på 25%. Detta begränsar de koldioxidreduktioner som kan uppnås. Om man vill uppnå avsevärt ökade reduktioner kan det krävas mer storleksminskning. Om målet är avsevärt ökade reduktioner av de genomsnittliga
koldioxidutsläppen från nya bilar krävs ytterligare differentiering av koldioxidskatten. En högre differentiering kräver antingen en högre skattenivå eller att
man tillåter att skatten blir en nettosubvention för de mest koldioxideffektiva
bilarna.
Policyn vars syfte är att uppmuntra köp och användning av mer energieffektiva
fordon kommer att innebära relativt sett högre kostnader för landsortsbefolkningen än tätortsbefolkningen och vara fördelaktigare för familjer utan barn, än
för familjer med barn. Detta till följd av att dessa grupper köper större och mer
6
bränsleförbrukande bilar. För att kompensera för denna fördelningseffekt kan
det finnas önskemål att kompensera detta.
Sammanfattning
I den resterande delen av sammanfattningen presenteras studiens syfte och den
använda metoden. Dessutom presenteras de viktigaste resultaten, både vad gäller utsläpp och samhällsekonomiska effekter, som följer av ett införande av antingen en försäljningsskatt eller en fordonsskatt.
1.2
Syfte, studiens omfattning och organisation
Organisation
Denna rapport presenterar resultaten av en studie gjord för Svenska
Naturvårdsverket och Svenska Energimyndigheten. COWI A/S har utfört studien i samarbete med Statens Väg och transportforskningsinstitut (VTI) i Sverige
under perioden september till december 2001. Grunddragen i de antagna ändringarna av skattesystemet - scenarierna- bestämdes i nära samarbete med Naturvårdsverket och Energimyndigheten. På liknande sätt bestämdes definitionerna av de olika tillämpade resultattyperna och de alternativa beräkningar som
skulle göras i nära samarbete med kunden. I detta avseende har de tre projektmötena med kunderna och andra berörda myndigheter på Naturvårdsverket varit ytterst värdefulla.3 Syftet med mötena har varit att säkra en gemensam
ståndpunkt beträffande projektets omfattning och framskridande.
Syfte
Syftet med studien är att analysera effekterna på hushållens efterfrågan av nya
bilar vid ett införande av koldioxiddifferentierade försäljningsskatter. Under
arbetets gång bestämdes det att man även skulle analysera konsekvenserna av
att omforma fordonsskatten och inkludera en koldioxidberoende del. Analysen
skulle både undersöka effekten på koldioxidutsläppen och konsekvenserna för
bilförsäljningen och bilparken. Studien skulle skilja mellan dieselbilar och bensinbilar å ena sidan, och privatbilar och företagsbilar å andra sidan. Studien
skulle inte enbart titta på konsekvenserna för nybilsförsäljningen utan även analysera inverkan på utskrotningen av gamla bilar och på bilparken. Studien skulle dessutom analysera de samhällsekonomiska effekterna och beräkningarna
skulle gälla för både kort-, medium- och långsiktigt perspektiv.
1.3
Referensnivå
Definition av skattescenarierna
En viktig del i definitionen av skattescenarierna är definitionen av en
referensutsläppsnivå. Koldioxidskatter införs endast för utsläpp som överskrider denna referensnivå och skatten blir negativ när utsläppen är mindre än referensnivån. Koldioxidskattebasen utgör alltid mängden (gram) koldioxid per kilometer minus referensnivån. Referensnivån utgör den mängd (gram) koldioxid
per kilometer som inte ger någon skatt.
En lika viktig del i definitionen av skattescenarierna är att systemen definieras
så att den totala försäljningsskatten (eller fordonsskatten) aldrig kan bli negativ,
dvs. nettosubvention är inte tillåtet. Dessutom är fordonsskatten budgetneutral,
3
4 oktober, 15 november och 18 december
7
dvs. den skall ge samma intäkt som gällande skattesystemet, varken mer eller
mindre.
Vid definitionen av referensnivån har man försökt att definiera den så att den
både erkänner betydelsen av att tillåta storleksminskning, men samtidigt så att
den inte leder till allt för hög storleksminskning. För att illustrera detta ytterligare kan man titta på två ytterligheter. Den ena ytterligheten är ett system där
skatten endast är beroende av mängden (gram) koldioxidutsläpp per bil och kilometer. Ett sådant system skulle alltid gynna de små bilarna på bekostnad av
de större och oundvikligen leda till påtaglig storleksminskning. Den andra
ytterligheten är ett system som endast syftar till att påverka människors bilval
inom givna storlekskategorier. Ett sådant system skulle inte leda till någon storleksminskning utan istället leda till en oönskad storleksökning eftersom de
minsta bilarna (mest bränsleeffektiva) skulle få en högre skatt i förhållande till
bilpriset än större bilar. Följaktligen skulle de större bilarna bli relativt billigare
än de var tidigare.
Sammanfattningsvis har man definierat en referensnivå som tillåter en storleksminskning med 25%. Detta illustreras i figuren nedan där gram koldioxid
per kilometer är ritad i förhållande till bilens markarea.
Figur 1.1 Referensnivå för koldioxid, bensinbilar
g CO2 per
kilometer
500
400
300
200
100
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2
Markarea (m )
Kurvan i figuren visar resultatet av en beräkning som baseras på en viktning på
25% mot storleksminskning och 75% för en skattekurva som inte tillåter någon
storleksminskning alls. Denna referensnivå har tillämpats på bensindrivna bilar.
Figuren innehåller markeringar för varje biltyp som finns på den svenska marknaden. Bilar som befinner sig ovanför linjen betalar koldioxidskatt och bilar
som befinner sig under linjen erhåller en koldioxidrabatt. Om man tillät en storleksminskning på 100% skulle referensnivån endast ge en horisontell linje i figuren. Om man däremot inte tillät någon storleksminskning skulle kurvan i figuren bli brantare.
8
En liknande referensnivå har tillämpats för dieselbilar. Dessa referensnivåer
används både i fordonskattescenariot och i försäljningsskattescenariot.
Tillämpade skattescenarier
I utformningen av försäljningsskattescenariot har man varit noggrann med att
sätta en nivå som inte ger orealistiskt höga skatter men är tillräckligt hög för att
ge utrymme för differentiering och därigenom möjliggör betydande beteendeförändringar som resulterar i en reduktion av koldioxidutsläpp. Skattescenarierna är sammanfattade i tabellen nedan. Det bör noteras att skattescenarierna har
baserats på ett antal preliminära beräkningar.
Tabell 1.1 Översikt skattescenarier1.
Skattedel och huvudsakliga kännetecken
Fordonsskatt
Försäljningsskatt
Icke koldioxidberoende del
Existerande skatt: skatten är differentierad efter bilens tjänstevikt enligt en trappmässigt linjärt samband.
En ökning av skatten med ca 150
SEK för varje 100 kilo för bensinbilar
och med 575 SEK för dieselbilar.
Värdebaserad (ny skatt):
Koldioxidberoende
del
44 SEK per gram ovanför referensnivån och ett liknande negativt värde
om utsläppen är under referensnivån
880 SEK per gram ovanför
referensnivån och ett liknande negativt värde om
utsläppen är under referensnivån.
Andra kännetecken
Fordonsskattens totala intäkt skall
vara oförändrad
Den totala försäljningsskatten kan inte vara negativ
10% av bilvärdet
1)
Separata funktioner är uträknade för dieselbilar och bensinbilar och referensnivåerna är illustrerade i Figur 1.1
1.4
Tillvägagångssätt
1.4.1 Modellbaserade analyser av skattescenarierna
En viktig utgångspunkt i studien är bilvalsmodellen som COWI tidigare har
utvecklat och använt vid många andra tillfällen. Modellen innehåller en detaljerad modellering av bilköpares efterfrågemönster. Den ger relativt detaljerade
analyser av hur förändrade skattenivåer och skattestrukturer påverkar hushållens önskemål. Denna modell utgjorde utgångspunkten för utformning av bilefterfrågemodulen som har tillämpats i denna studie. Denna modul kombinerades
samtidigt med en bilparksmodul och en skrotningsmodul som illustrerat nedan.
Figur 1.2
Illustration av ingång och utgång
Modellbaserat synsätt
9
Denna studie bygger främst på användningen av olika modeller. Figuren ovan
visar de viktigaste delarna i detta tillvägagångssätt. Beräkningarna använder tre
separata men inbördes beroende moduler:
•
•
•
Modul för registrering av nya bilar
Modul för bilpark
Modul för skrotning
Nya bilar
Modulen för registrering av nya bilar mäter i vilken utsträckning hushållens
val av nya bilar påverkas av förändringar i prisstrukturen som en följd av ändrade eller nya skatter. Modulen bygger på en detaljerad kartläggning av försäljningen av nya bilar i Sverige under året 1999/2000 vilket inkluderar en mångfald av fysiska kännetecken, energieffektivitetsförhållanden och priset på varje
biltyp. Vidare innehåller modulen en detaljerad kartläggning av relevanta bilköpares samhällsekonomiska kännetecken och en detaljerad kartläggning av
varje grupps preferenser och priselasticitet.
Bilparken
Modulen för bilparken uppdaterar varje år bilparken med hjälp av resultaten
från de andra två modulerna. Bilparksmodulen innehåller också en detaljerad
kartläggning av den svenska bilparken som den var i september 2001. Studien
använder sig av en kort, medium och lång (20 år) tidshorisont och bilparksmodulen används regelbundet för att registrera förändringar från år till år.
Bilskrotning
Skrotningsmodulen används för att registrera bilskrotningen. Skrotning
bestäms av två faktorer: bilarnas överlevnadskurva och skrotningspriselasticiteten.
Generell priselasticitet
Om den totala skattebördan som påförs bilköparna eller bilägarna ökar, kommer detta högst sannolikt leda till att antalet bilar i bilparken minskar. Skrotningsmodulens priselasticitet visar på människors tendens att behålla sina bilar
längre och därigenom öka bilarnas genomsnittsålder. En generell priselasticitet
är dock nödvändig för att ta hänsyn till effekten av den resulterande prisökningen på bilparken, och därigenom effekten på nybilsförsäljningen. Studien
använder en långsiktig priselasticitet för bilägarskap på 0,6, dvs. en ökning av
priset med 10% kommer att innebära en nedgång i bilparkens storlek med 6% i
det långa loppet. Denna elasticitet har uppnåtts i ett flertal svenska studier. Beräkningarna antar att halva denna effekt är gradvis införd efter 7 år och att den
totala effekten är gradvis införd efter 30 år.
Utveckling av energieffektivitet
Erfarenheter visar att bilars bränsleeffektivitet har förbättrats med ca 2% per år
det senast årtiondet och beräkningarna antar att denna trend kommer att hålla i
sig.
”Vad händer om”synsätt
Det ovannämnda modellbaserade tillvägagångssättet är av en "vad händer om"natur. Man har inte tagit med i beräkningen makroekonomisk utveckling eller
andra liknande dynamiska drivkrafter. Styrkan i detta tillvägagångssätt är att
det ger en tydlig analys av koldioxidegenskaper och relaterade biverkningar av
de analyserade skatteinstrumenten. Samtidigt minskar man antalet uppskattningar och komplexiteter i beräkningen. Modellen bör därför inte användas för
planering och prognoser.
10
1.4.2 Olika typer av resultat
Resultaten av de modellbaserade beräkningarna visar på de kort, medium, och
långsiktiga effekter som skattescenarierna ger. Resultaten är beräknade utifrån
första året då den antagna ändringen inträffade och efter fem, tio och tjugo års
implementering. För varje år beräknas en basnivå (nollnivå). Denna basnivå
beräknar resultaten av nu existerande skattesystem. Effekter beräknas således
som skillnaden mellan basnivån för gällande år och scenarioresultaten för gällande år.
Grundnivå
Skapandet av en basnivå är nödvändigt för att kunna genomföra de efterfrågade
analyserna. Basnivån förutsätter att existerande skatter behålls och att ingen av
de antagna ändringarna införs. Tabellen nedan sammanfattar basvärdena för
försäljningen av nya bilar för det första året. I bedömningen av beräkningsresultaten av konsekvenserna av de antagna skattescenarierna har resultaten
från beräkningarna jämförts med basvärdena. Tabellen ger en kort beskrivning
av de olika resultattyperna som sådana jämförelser skulle ge.
Tabell 1.2 Resultattyper och basvärden: nybilsförsäljning.
Resultattyp
Basvärde
Motivering
Genomsnittligt koldioxidutsläpp (g per km)
198,1
Illustrerar en förbättring av koldioxidresultatet i genomsnitt (koldioxidutsläpp per kilometer per bil)
Genomsnittlig livslång
skatteintäkt (SEK/bil)
96 237
Illustrerar den genomsnittliga effekten på varje bilägares skattebetalning över fordonets livslängd (från köp
till skrotning). Skatten beräknas som försäljningsskatt
plus värde per livslängd av fordonsskatt och bränsleskatt
Genomsnittsstorlek
3,70
Ändringar av denna indikator illustrerar betydelsen av
storleksökning respektive storleksminskning
Genomsnittlig dieselandel
6,5%
Detta resultat visar huruvida andelen dieselbilar i nybilsförsäljningen ändras som ett resultat av den antagna skatteändringen
Genomsnittlig andel
svensktillverkade bilar
30,5%
Detta resultat visar andelen svensktillverkade bilar i
relation till den totala bilförsäljningen
Genomsnittlig försäljningsskatt (SEK/bil)
-
-
Genomsnittlig fordonsskatt (SEK/bil/år)
1 566
Illustrerar vad som händer med den genomsnittliga
fordonsskatten som ett resultat av den antagna ändringen. Införandet av en försäljningsskatt kan leda till
ändringar i försäljningsskatten som ett resultat av en
annorlunda sammansättning av bilförsäljningen.
Genomsnittligt försäljningspris, SEK exkl.
moms
145 825
Används för att ge en indikator på vad som händer
med biltillverkningsindustrins omsättning. Måste kombineras med resultatet av sålda bilar för att ge en rättvis bild.
Genomsnittlig skatt per
livslängd består av
Försäljningsskatt
Fordonsskatt (för hela
livslängden)
Visar sammansättningen av den genomsnittliga skatten per livslängd som skall betalas.
24 780
11
Resultattyp
Bränsleskatt (för hela
livslängden)
Basvärde
Motivering
71 456
På liknande sätt illustrerar tabell 1.3 basvärdena för bilparken. Dessa värden
omfattar både de kort, medium och långsiktiga perspektiven.
Basvärdena illustrerar vad som skulle hända om inga ändringar gjordes av existerande skatter. Som framgår av tabellen minskar de genomsnittliga koldioxidutsläppen (g/km/bil) och de totala koldioxidutsläppen över visad period. Detta är framför allt ett resultat av det senaste årtiondets tekniska utveckling och
antagandet att denna trend kommer att hålla i sig. Tidigare erfarenheter visar att
tekniska framsteg ger en årlig förbättring av bränsleeffektiviteten med ca 2%.
Den gradvisa ersättningen av gamla bilar med nya och mer bränsleeffektiva
bilar leder till genomsnittsreduktioner av koldioxidgenomsnittsutsläppen. Tabellen visar även att fordonens genomsnittliga livslängd tenderar att minska lite
över tiden medan bilarnas genomsnittstyngd ökar lite. Värt att notera är också
att andelen dieselbilar kommer att ligga kvar på en låg nivå men kommer att
öka från nästan 5% till 6,5%.
Tabell 1.3 Basscenario, total bilpark (1, 5, 10 och 20 år)
Bas
1
Antal bilar
4 153 155
Nybilsförsäljning
205 154
Genomsnittligt koldioxidutsläpp (g CO2/km)
235
Totalt koldioxidutsläpp (ton)
11 994 305
Genomsnittsålder
8.9
Genomsnittslängd (cm)
451
Genomsnittsvikt (kg)
1 340
Antal svenska bilar
1 365 726
Andel svenska bilar
32,9%
Antal dieselbilar
198 069
Andel dieselbilar
4,8%
Tidshorisont (antal år)
5
10
4 153 155
4 153 156
226 536
195 659
221
203
11 364 228
10 458 465
9.0
9.4
449
447
1 375
1 402
1 289 483
1 248 816
31,0%
30,1%
236 867
276 989
5,7%
6,7%
20
4 153 152
240 064
162
8 325 037
9.2
442
1 408
1 255 375
30,2%
270 625
6,5%
Som nämnts är denna modell varken en beräknings- eller prognosmodell. Följaktligen antas efterfrågan på bilar fortsatt att vara stabil om inte ändringar införs i systemet i form av t.ex. prisändringar, som följd av ändringar i skattestrukturen och/eller skattenivån. Därför förblir mängden bilar i bilparken oförändrad under hela perioden. I basscenariot antas att det inte blir några förändringar av nuvarande förutsättningar. Enda undantaget är relaterat till energieffektivitet, vilken antas öka med 2% per år som beskrivits ovan.
En annan faktor som påverkar resultaten av basscenariot är skrotningsmönstret.
Detta mönster bestäms av åldersfördelningen hos nuvarande bilpark. Den nuvarande bilparken fördelas så att ett stort antal bilar är mellan 1 och 3 år gamla
respektive 12 och 14 år gamla. Denna fördelning påverkar varje års omsättningssiffror och den resulterade genomsnittsåldern för bilar.
12
1.4.3 Känslighetsanalyser
Beräkningarna är föremål för ett antal kritiska antaganden. Därför har känslighetsanalyser utgjort en viktig del av studiens ramar för att visa på säkerheten i
resultaten.
Översikt av känslighetsanalyser
Känslighetsanalyser har genomförts för att värdera i vilken utsträckning de
uppnådda resultaten är känsliga för dessa antaganden. Följande känslighetsanalyser har genomförts. Känslighetsanalyserna har endast genomförts i försäljningsskattescenariot eftersom försäljningsscenariot medför störst effekter.
Tabell 1.4 Översikt, känslighetsanalyser
Känslighetsanal
yser
Motivering och beskrivning
Grad av koldioxiddifferentiering
Den ursprungliga nivån av differentiering är 880 SEK per CO2 ovanför
referensnivån. Den alternativa beräkningen värderar i vilken utsträckning resultat ytterligare accentueras vid dubblering av denna, dvs. genom att använda en kostnad på 1760 SEK per gram.
Försäljningsskattenivå
Nivån var ursprungligen satt till 10% av värdet. Med tanke på att den
totala skatten inte kan vara negativ har den alternativa analysen till
syfte att undersöka huruvida en ökning av detta värde (upp till 20%)
kan leda till ytterligare minskningar och vad detta skulle ge för ytterligare bieffekter. Begränsningen att nivån aldrig kan vara negativ innebär
att nivån på den nivåbaserade skatten i viss utsträckning definierar
omfattningen av den differentieringsnivå man kan använda, men nivån
påverkar å andra sidan också bilars genomsnittsålder vars effekt verkar i motsatt riktning.
Storleksminskningsnivåer
I den ursprungliga strukturen tillåts en storleksminskning med 25%. En
höjning av detta värde har ingen inverkan på bilparkens storlek (som
bestäms av den generella priselasticiteten) men påverkar bilköparnas
val av nya bilar. Ju mer man tillåter storleksminskning desto mer kommer människor att välja mindre och mer energieffektiva bilar.
Olika skattefunktioner
Scenarierna tillämpar olika skattefunktioner (med likvärdiga former) för
dieselbilar och bensinbilar. Dessa funktioner kan påverka resultaten.
För att kunna värdera detta har de två funktionerna slagits ihop till en.
Skrotningspriselasticitet
Skrotningspriselasticiteten fastställer delvis hastigheten med vilken
bilparken förnyas och hastigheten med vilken den anpassar sig till nya
förutsättningar. Därför undersöks hur en halvering av priselasticiteten
påverkar skrotningen.
Storleken på
den generella
priselasticiteten
Storleken på den generella priselasticiteten bestämmer antalet bilar i
bilparken. Ursprungligen bestämdes elasticiteten till –0,6. En minskning
av elasticiteten skulle innebära en minskning av påverkan på bilparken
i form av antal bilar och genomsnittsålder. Följaktligen kan man förvänta sig att se en mindre minskning av de totala koldioxidutsläppen.
Känslighetsanalyserna undersöker de förändringar som uppkommer
om man tillämpar en elasticitet på –0,35 i istället för –0,6.
Infasning av
den allmänna
priselasticiteten
Priselasticiteten på –0,6 är långsiktig i den bemärkelsen att det tar
många år innan full effekt är uppnådd. Ursprungligen antar beräkningarna att halva priselasticiteten är infasad över en sjuårsperiod och resterande hälft under resterande del av hela 30-års perioden. Känslighetsanalyserna antar att halva elasticiteten istället endast är infasad
under en fyraårsperiod och varar hela perioden på 30 år.
13
1.4.4 Samhällsekonomi och lönsamhet
Vid värderingen av de samhällsekonomiska effekterna sattes fokus på två
aspekter, en eventuell inverkan på landsortsbefolkningens välfärd och eventuell
inverkan på biltillverkningen och dess följdeffekter på exempelvis
underleverantörsindustrin.
Samhällsekonomi
För att illustrera de samhällsekonomiska konsekvenserna av skattescenarierna
har följande analyser gjorts:
♦ Analys av i vilken utsträckning landsortsbefolkningen påverkas mer eller
mindre jämfört med tätortsbefolkningen. Analysen har gjorts genom att
använda kvantitativa indikatorer för den relativa skattebörda som påförs
lands- och tätortsbefolkningen och på den välfärdsförlust som varje grupp
drabbas av som ett resultat av att välja mindre bilar än i ursprungsfallet. I
denna analys skiljer man mellan ensamstående och par och mellan de som
har barn och de som inte har.
♦ Analys av i vilken utsträckning sysselsättningen kommer att påverkas.
Analysen har gjorts genom att använda kvantitativa indikatorer på
sysselsättningseffekter av förändringar för biltillverkningen och på
försäljningen av fordon, reservdelar och underhåll plus bensinstationer.
Kostnadsnyttoanalys
Dessutom värderar studien de kostnader och den nytta som samhället kommer
att få som ett resultat av skattescenarierna. Faktorer såsom minskade
koldioxidutsläpp, välfärdsförluster som resultat av ändring av bilstorlek,
minskad sysselsättning, minskad vinst, effekter på andra utsläpp (NOx,
partiklar, SO2, HC), buller och olyckor tas med i beräkningen.
1.5
Nybilsförsäljning
Resultat
1.5.1 Koldioxidreduktioner, nybilsförsäljning, skrotning och
bilparken
Tabell 1.5 och 1.6 visar resultaten som försäljningsskatten respektive
fordonsskatten ger på nybilsförsäljningen.
Som framgår av tabellen, påverkar fordonsskattescenariot sammansättningen av
nybilsförsäljningen i högre omfattning än försäljningskatten. Den leder till en
minskning ner till 192,8 g/km/bil på utsläppsnivån jämfört med ett genomsnitt
på 195,3 för försäljningsskatten. Detta gäller dock endast nybilsförsäljning.
Intressant att notera är att båda skattescenarierna knappast medför några
förändringar av andelen dieselbilar. En viktig orsak till detta är att man använt
olika referensnivåer för dieselbilar respektive bensinbilar för att på så sätt
undvika radikala förändringar i fördelningen mellan de två. Effekterna av att slå
samman de två till en skattefunktion, dvs. tillämpa samma referensnivå för båda
bränsletyperna, visar dock att det endast skulle leda till marginella ändringar.
Andelen dieselbilar skulle i detta fall endast öka med 0,5%.
14
Tabell 1.5 Resultat av försäljningsskattescenario
Bas
Ny försäljningsskatt
198,1
195,3
Genomsnittlig skatteintäkt per livslängd (SEK
per bil)
Genomsnittsstorlek
Genomsnittlig andel svensktillverkade bilar
96 237
115 227
3,70
6,5%
30,5%
3,66
6,5%
29,2%
Genomsnittlig försäljningsskatt (SEK per bil)
Genomsnittlig fordonsskatt (SEK per bil per
år)
Genomsnittligt försäljningspris, SEK exkl.
moms
Genomsnittlig skatt per livslängd består av
(SEK)
Försäljningsskatt
Fordonsskatt (för hela livslängden)
Bränsleskatt (för hela livslängden)
1 566
20 161
1 558
145 825
143 854
24 780
71 456
20 161
24 543
70 523
Tabell 1.6 Resultat av fordonsskattescenario
Bas
198,1
Ny årlig
fordonsskatt
192,8
Genomsnittlig skatteintäkt per livslängd (SEK
per bil)
Genomsnittsstorlek
Genomsnittlig andel svensktillverkade bilar
96 237
92 497
3,70
6,5%
30,5%
3,65
6,6%
29,5%
Genomsnittlig försäljningsskatt (SEK per bil)
Genomsnittlig fordonsskatt (SEK per bil per
år)
Genomsnittligt försäljarpris, SEK exkl. moms
Genomsnittlig skatt per livslängd består av
(SEK)
Försäljningsskatt
Fordonsskatt (för hela livslängden)
Bränsleskatt (för hela livslängden)
1 566
1 443
145 825
142 120
24 780
71 456
22 766
69 731
Bilpark
Vid betraktelse av hela bilparken ser man att det fortfarande är
försäljningsskatten som ger störst minskning av koldioxidutsläppen. Detta beror
framför allt på att fordonsskatten inte alls påverkar bilparkens storlek eftersom
15
fordonsskatten endast är en rekonstruktion av existerande skatt medan
försäljningsskatten involverar utformningen av en ny skatt som skall
komplettera existerande skatt. Därför påverkar försäljningsskattescenariot
bilpriserna i relation till andra konsumentvaror. Det gör inte
fordonsskattescenariot.
Analyserna visar att en försäljningsskatt som består av en koldioxidskatt på 880
SEK per gram koldioxid per bil plus en värdebaserad del (10% av bilvärdet)
kommer att ge koldioxidreduktioner i storleksordningen 5% i långa loppet (20
år). På medellång sikt kommer reduktionerna att vara i storleksordningen 3%
och 2% på 10 respektive 5 år. Den motsvarande förändringen i de
genomsnittliga utsläppen per bil är dock försumbara, vilket innebär att den
huvudsakliga reduktionen kommer av en minskning av bilparken.
Detta scenario leder också till en ökning av genomsnittsåldern som ett resultat
av minskad skrotning. De modellbaserade beräkningarna visar att genomsnittsåldern skulle ha ökat med ett halvt år på 20 år.
Resultaten av de två skattescenarierna för bilparken redovisas nedan.
Försäljningen av svenska bilar påverkas i båda scenarierna. Detta återspeglar
det faktum att svensktillverkade bilar tenderar att vara större än vad genomsnittbilmärkena är och därmed påverkas mer av de antagna scenarierna.
Tabell 1.7 Effekter av försäljningsskatt, total bilpark (1,5, 10 och 20 år)
Förändring
Antal bilar
Försäljning av nya bilar
Genomsnittsålder
Genomsnittslägd (cm)
Antal svenska bilar
Andel svenska bilar
Antal dieselbilar
Andel dieselbilar
1
-24 846
-20,47%
0,37
-43 669
0,15
0,01
-1,82
-7 920
0,01%
-2 225
-0,03%
5
10
-114 289
-183 303
-12,59%
-6,81%
1,27
1,07
-203 436
-329 885
0,53
0,60
-0,07
-0,28
-6,80
-8,73
-41 043
-71 310
-0,14%
-0,41%
-10 372
-15 064
-0,10%
-0,07%
20
-253 094
-11,21%
-0,10
-410 717
0,53
-0,92
-10,79
-113 248
-0,94%
-17 940
-0,04%
16
Tabell 1.8 Effekter av fordonsskatt, total bilpark (1,5, 10 and 20 år)
Förändring
1
Antal bilar
Försäljning av nya bilar
Genomsnittsålder
Genomsnittslängd (cm)
Antal svenska bilar
Andel svenska bilar
Antal dieselbilar
Andel dieselbilar
Effekt av försäljningsskattescenariot
Resultat
1
0,00%
-0,26
-10 322
0,00
-0,06
-0,60
-1 932
-0,05%
151
0,00%
5
10
0
0
0,00%
0,00%
-1,31
-2,41
-53 146
-97 978
0,00
0,00
-0,34
-0,65
-3,21
-6,17
-10 312
-19 824
-0,25%
-0,48%
805
1 547
0,02%
0,04%
20
2
0,00%
-3,90
-158 560
0,00
-1,20
-11,31
-36 356
-0,88%
2 836
0,07%
1.5.2 Känslighetsanalyser
Känslighetsanalyser har endast genomförts beträffande försäljningsskattescenariot eftersom detta scenario ger de största påverkningarna. Fordonsskattescenariot påverkar inte bilparkens storlek, antalet nya bilar eller skrotningsmönstret.
Fordonsskatten påverkar endast sammansättningen av nybilsförsäljningen.
Sex känslighetsanalyser har genomförts och de visar på följande (notera att alla
beräkningsresultatgäller tidshorisonten 20 år):
En ökning av koldioxidskattenivån inverkar marginellt på resultaten. En
dubblering till 1760 SEK/g ger endast en ytterligare minskning av det totala
koldioxidutsläppet på storleksordningen 0,5 procent. Största orsaken till denna
marginella påverkan är att även om skattehöjningen ger något mer utrymme för
differentiering så reduceras eller begränsas denna effekt av kravet på att den
totala skattebetalningen aldrig kan vara negativ. Den högre skattenivån på 1760
SEK/g ger oftare situationer där den totala skattebetalningen blir negativ (dvs.
det skulle resultera i en subvention), men på grund av att inte ge subvention blir
den faktiska differentieringsstyrningen mindre än vad den teoretiskt kan ge.
En ökning av skattens värdebaserade del ger vissa ytterligare
koldioxidreduktioner men bilparken minskar mer och effekten minskas
något av en ökning av bilarnas genomsnittsålder. En dubblering av skattens
nivåbaserade del med 20% istället för ursprungliga 10% skulle således leda till
en ytterligare minskning i storleksordningen två procentandelar. Ytterligare
minskningar av antalet bilar är det viktigaste bidraget till denna ytterligare
koldioxidreduktion. Ökningen av skattens nivåbaserade del ger mer utrymme
för den koldioxiddifferentierade skatten men effekterna har visat sig vara
relativt små. Vidare ökar den högre skattenivån bilarnas genomsnittsålder vilket
motarbetar koldioxidreduktionerna.
17
Ökad grad av storleksminskning kommer att påverka sammansättningen
av nybilsförsäljningen även om effekten blir begränsad. Den nuvarande
tillåtna storleksminskningsnivån på 25% räcker för att fånga det mesta av
koldioxidreduktionen i form av bilars genomsnittsutsläpp. I själva verket visar
beräkningar att ca 80% av den potentiella minskningen kommer av denna
storleksminskningsnivå. En ytterligare ökning av den tillåtna nivån skulle
således ge endast begränsat ytterligare reduktioner och samtidigt ge ytterligare
påverkan på bilförsäljningen. Denna effekt skulle bli mest framträdande i
fordonsskattescenariot eftersom detta scenario endast anses uppnå
koldioxidreduktioner genom ändringar i sammansättningen av
nybilsförsäljningen.
Att slå samman de två skattefunktionerna för diesel och bensin i en och
samma funktion har endast en liten inverkar resultaten. Den viktigaste effekten är en ökning av andelen dieselbilar med 0,5%.
Om skrotningselasticiteten är lägre än förutsett ger
försäljningsskattescenariot lite mer koldioxidreduktioner. Används en
elasticitet hälften så stor som den ursprungliga skulle ytterligare reduktioner i
storleksordningen 0,5 procent fås. Denna reduktion är ett resultat av två
effekter. För det första talar den lägre priselasticiteten för att, även om
människor tenderar att behålla sina bilar en längre tid på grund av ökningen, så
minskar denna effekt jämfört med ursprungsscenariot. Därför kommer
genomsnittsåldern för bilarna inte att öka lika mycket som i ursprungsscenariot.
Dessutom kommer den lägre skrotningsbenägenheten att förbättra försäljningen
av nya bilar jämfört med ursprungsscenariot.
Om bilparkens priselasticitet är lägre än förutsett ger försäljningsskatten
avsevärt mindre koldioxidreduktioner och bilparken påverkas avsevärt
mindre. Om man använder en priselasticitet på –0,6 istället för som
ursprungligen tänkt på –0,35 kommer försäljningsskatten ge
koldioxidreduktioner i storleksordningen 3% och bilparken kommer att minska
med 3,7%. Storleken på elasticiteten har således en avgörande betydelse för
beräkningsresultaten.
En accelererad infasning av priselasticiteten skulle leda till större förändringar de första åren efter implementeringen. Priselasticitetens tidsperspektiv har viktiga konsekvenser för spridningen av effekterna över tid.
Säkerheten i resultaten Sammanfattningsvis är analysresultaten relativt säkra vad gäller flertalet
huvudförutsättningar. Resultaten påverkas endast i liten utsträckning av
förändringar i skattenivån, koldioxidskattenivån och skrotningselasticiteten.
Nivån på den generella priselasticiteten får viktiga konsekvenser för resultaten.
Det sätt på vilket elasticiteten infasas påverkar storleksordningen på de kort,och medellånga effekterna i synnerhet.
18
Tätorts- och
landsortsbefolkning
1.5.3 Samhällsekonomi och lönsamhetsanalys
Analyserna visar att familjer på landsbygden tenderar att köpa dyrare bilar än
familjer i tätorterna. Deras genomsnittsinkomst är lägre och följaktligen
använder de en avsevärt större del av sin inkomst till bilköp. Skattescenarierna
kommer därför att ha mernegativa effekter på landsortsbefolkningen än tätortsbefolkningen. Tabellen nedan illustrerar den påverkan som skattebördan
kommer att ha på tätortsbefolkningen respektive på landsortsbefolkningen.
Tabell 1.9 Skattebördeeffekter av försäljningsskattescenariot och
fordonsskattescenariot.
skattescenario
Familjetyp
Försäljningsskatt
Fordonsskatt
Genomsnittlig försäljningsskatt
i procent av
genomsnittsinkomst
Procentmässig förändring av
genomsnittlig fordonsskatt
Tätort
Landsbygd
Tätort
Landsbygd
Ensamstående utan barn
10%
12%
-11%
-1%
Ensamstående med barn
8%
9%
-5%
-2%
Par utan barn
5%
7%
-10%
3%
Par med barn
4%
7%
-8%
5%
En annan viktig aspekt av den påverkan som landsorts- respektive
tätortsbefolkningen utsätts för är den välfärdsförlust som följer av ändringar i
beteende orsakad av prisändringar. Vissa människor skulle på grund av
prisökningen, som ett resultat av försäljningsskatten, välja bort bilen. Andra
skulle till följd av den koldioxiddifferentierade skatten välja att köpa en annan
typ av bil, en bil som skiljer sig från den som de annars skulle köpt.
Tabellen nedan summerar de uträknade välfärdsförluster som de olika
familjetyperna och tätorts- respektive landsortsområdena skulle drabbas av.
Som framgår av tabellen är välfärdsförlusten för landsortsbefolkningen större
än den för tätortsbefolkningen i samtliga fall. Vidare ger försäljningsskatten
mycket större välfärdsförlust än fordonsskatten. Detta följer av den stora
välfärdsförlust som uppstår på grund av minskningen av antalet bilar.
Tabell 1.10 Välfärdsförlust för landsort- och tätortsbefolkningen till följd av de två
skattescenarierna (SEK/bil - för hela livslängden)
Skattescenario
Familjetyp
Försäljningsskatt
Tätort
1
Landsbygd
Fordonsskatt
Tätort
Landsbygd
Ensamstående utan barn
-21 557
-26 447
-3 275
-4 212
Ensamstående med barn
-25 986
-28 826
-4 876
-4 773
Par utan barn
-24 913
-32 114
-4 037
-4 404
Par med barn
-28 900
-39 159
-5 539
-5 599
1
Detta illustrerar välfärdsförlusten som följer av införandet av skatten i sig liksom av den
koldioxiddifferentierade delen. Den senare representerar den dominerande delen.
19
Biltillverkningsindus
tri och anknutna
industrier
Båda scenarierna kommer att påverka försäljningen av svenska bilar i Sverige.
Detta kommer i sin tur påverka den svenska biltillverkningsindustrin. Den
totala förändringen framgår av tabellen nedan. Försäljningsskatten ger störst
förändring. Detta beror framför allt på att detta scenario involverar införandet
av en ny skatt som kompletterar den existerande skatten medan fordonsskatten
endast är en rekonstruktion av den existerande skatten. Således leder
fordonsskatten till en minskning av försäljningen av svenska bilar och en
motsvarande ökning av försäljningen av andra bilar, medan
registreringsskattescenariot leder till en allmän minskning av antalet sålda bilar.
Tabell 1.11 Ändring av antalet svenska bilar sålda i Sverige. Antal bilar.
Tidshorisont/scenario
1 år
Försäljningsskattescenario
-14 184
-10 409
-5 664
-10 056
-1 932
-2 133
-1 843
-2 261
Fordonsskattescenario
5 år
10 år
20 år
Den minskade efterfrågan på svenska bilar på den svenska marknaden leder
således till en minskning av aktivitetsnivån i den svenska biltillverkningen.
Denna effekt är översatt till en sysselsättningseffekt. Man har beräknat att den
resulterande sysselsättningsförlusten i biltillverkningsindustrin kommer att
motsvara de nivåer som framgår av tabellen nedan. Dessa bygger på ett antal
antaganden som gjorts för att kunna uppskatta sysselsättning per bil och för att
justera för produktionsförhållandena mellan Nederländerna och Sverige.
Förutom effekten på biltillverkningsindustrin kan andra närbesläktade
industrier komma att påverkas. Bland de viktigaste närbesläktade industrierna
finner man bilförsäljning, bilreparation och underhåll och bensinstationer.
Sysselsättningseffekten inom dessa industrier har därför också inkluderats i
beräkningarna. Denna beräkning är baserad på ett antal enkla antaganden
beträffande sysselsättning per bil per år och baseras på den totala
bilparksstorleken som framgår av tabell 1.7 och 1.8.
Tabell 1.12 Sysselsättningsförlust som följd av nedgång i försäljningen av nya svenska
bilar. Antalet anställda (inklusive ägare/egenföretagare)
Tidshorisont/scenario
1 år
Försäljningsskattescenario,
därav
-1 348
-3 367
-3 514
-5 447
-971
-1 633
-733
-1 608
-377
-1 734
-2 781
-3 839
-1
-2
-2
-4
Fordonsskattescenario, därav
-183
-203
-175
-214
- biltillverkning
-183
-203
-175
-214
0
0
0
0
>-1
>-1
>-1
>-1
- biltillverkning
- bilförsäljning och reparation
5 år
10 år
20 år
Effekt i relation till bas, %
- bilförsäljning och reparation
Effekt i relation till bas, %
20
Tabellen illustrerar att införandet av en försäljningsskatt som består av en
koldioxiddifferentierad del ger störst effekter på sysselsättningen. Detta beror
framför allt på minskning av bilförsäljningen och antalet bilar i bilparken.
Kostnadsnyttoanalys
En kostnadsnyttoanalys har gjorts för att ge en indikation på storleksordningen
av effekterna på samhället av de två skattescenarierna. Resultaten av dessa
beräkningar visas nedan. Beräkningar som dessa är alltid föremål för en rad
antaganden och osäkerheter och analysen som gjorts i denna studie är ganska
elementär. Även om det bör påpekas att resultaten av de två scenarierna inte är
helt jämförbara eftersom försäljningsskatten innebär införandet av en ny skatt,
bidrar resultaten dock till att underbygga de tidigare komparativa slutsatserna.
Analysen nedan antar att på sikt kommer en stigande del av dem som blir
arbetslösa att finna arbete någon annanstans och att den ekonomiska aktiviteten
kommer att kompensera förlusten. Analysen använder sig av ett enhetspris på
koldioxidreduktioner på 1,50 SEK. Kostnaden av färre och mindre bilar har
räknats som en välfärdsförlust och effekter på energiförbrukning är inkluderat i
detta. Effekterna på utsläppen från andra föroreningar bestäms delvis av valet
av fordonstyp och delvis av hur fort de nya Euronormerna kan infasas. En
minskning av skrotning leder således till en fördröjd effekt av nya normer
jämfört med vad som annars skulle vara fallet.
Tabell 1.13 Resultat av kostnadsnyttoanalys av de två skattescenarierna (miljon SEK)
Kostnads- och vinstfaktorer
Försäljningsskattes
cenario
Fordonsskattescenario
År
År
1
20
1
20
Kostnader
- mindre bilar
- färre bilar
57
113
75
1 152
39
0
46
0
- sysselsättning
- vinst
Totala kostnader
Vinst
25
43
239
9
26
1 262
3
4
45
0
1
47
80
-57
46
3
73
-166
-166
768
54
472
31
1 326
64
26
-1,096
20
0
0
0
20
-26
-26
301
-3
0
0
298
251
115
1,767
- koldioxidreduktioner
- andra föroreningar
- olyckor
- buller
Total vinst
Total nettovinst/år
- diskonterad
Total ackumulerad nettovinst
2
Executive summary
2.1
Main conclusions
21
This study has investigated the implications of using vehicle taxes as a means
to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger cars. Model based calculations constitute the core output of the study. Calculations have been done to analyse the
CO2 reducing potentials and other effects in two tax scenarios. The first scenario assumes that a CO2 dependent tax on car purchase (a registration tax) is
introduced, and the latter analyses the effects from a CO2 dependent tax on car
ownership (circulation tax).
Prior to summarising the main conclusions to be drawn, it is however necessary
to outline the basic principles that governs the design of the assumed new taxes.
The reference level
The determination of a reference level is a key feature of the approach taken in
designing both of the above CO2 taxes. Basically, the reference level determines, for each car size, the level of CO2 emissions that will result in a tax of
zero (0). The CO2 emissions are measured in grams of CO2 per kilometre. If the
CO2 emissions of a particular car size exceed the reference level, this will result
in a tax increase, and if the CO2 emissions are less than the reference level, this
will result in a tax reduction. Thus, the tax base is: the CO2 emissions for the
car size in question minus the CO2 emissions reference level, and the price is a
fixed amount of SEK per gram. The resulting tax may be positive, negative or
zero depending on the difference between the emissions level of the car in
question and the relevant reference level. The circulation tax is composed of the
new, hypothetical CO2 tax and the existing circulation tax, and the system is
designed so that the total circulation tax invoked on a particular car can never
be negative. The new, hypothetical, registration tax is assumed to be composed
of a value based part and the CO2 tax, and similarly to the circulation tax, the
total registration tax is not allowed to be negative. In other words, the systems
do not allow for subsidisation.
Setting the reference
level
A purely CO2 dependent tax would lead to substantial downsizing4 as it would
render the smaller and most CO2 effective cars much cheaper than the larger
cars compared to the situation of today. While such downsizing can be an ef4
To illustrate the term downsizing one can say that is used to describe the case where car
purchasers would tend to buy smaller cars than today thereby resulting in a smaller average
size of the cars in the car fleet.
22
fective means to reduce CO2 emissions it can be in the conflict with other objectives of the society. For the present model calculations, a reference level has
been defined which allows for some downsizing, but only in the order of 25%.
In practical terms, this means that the reference level is defined mainly as a
function of the size of the car, where the size is measured as the area of the car.
The choice of downsizing in the present study does not exclude other levels of
downsizing to be considered as well.
The registration tax is assumed to include both a value dependent part (10%
of the value of the car) and a CO2 dependent part (880 SEK per gram of CO2
above the reference level, and calculated as a negative value in case the emissions level is below the reference level). The total registration tax to be paid by
a car purchaser is not allowed to be negative, but the CO2 part of it may become
negative.
The circulation tax is defined as the existing circulation tax plus a CO2 dependent element. The latter is set at 44 SEK per gram of CO2 above the reference level, and as a negative value when the emissions level is below the reference level. The assumed change of the circulation tax is only assumed to apply
for new cars, and the total circulation tax is not allowed to be negative.
Results from the
scenario calculations
The investigations of these two tax scenarios point to the following conclusions:
•
The assumed registration tax leads to an annual reduction in total emissions of CO2 from the car fleet in the order of 5% n 20 years. Taking a
shorter time horizon, the annual reductions are smaller, e.g. just above 1%
in 5 years. The potential reductions are larger than those that would result
from the assumed changes of the circulation tax, but they are mainly
achieved through a decline in the number of cars in the fleet. The average
emission level per car (gram of CO2/km/car) is almost constant in this scenario, and the average age of cars increases by about half a year as a result
of reduced turnover rates.
•
The circulation tax would lead to an annual reduction in the order of 2% in
20 years, and of about 0.5% in 5 years time. While this reduction is smaller
than for the registration tax, it nevertheless implies a more significant reduction in the average emission level per car. In 20 years the average emissions would have been reduced by 2.5% in this case compared to virtually
no reduction for the registration tax. Furthermore, the redesign of the circulation tax does not lead to a change in the size of the car fleet.
•
The sales of Swedish car makes (i.e. Volvo and SAAB) on the Swedish
market will in both scenarios be more affected than the sales of cars as a
whole. This reflects the fact that Swedish car makes are typically larger,
less CO2 efficient cars than the average car. This effect will be most outspoken for the registration tax, mainly as a result of the decline in the car
fleet (a drop of about 4% in the 20 years perspective),.
23
•
Neither of the assumed tax systems leads to significant changes in the proportion of diesel cars in the car fleet.
•
Company cars are less sensitive to price changes than private cars. On the
other hand, company cars are more sensitive to changes in the annual
costs, i.e. fuel and circulation tax. Consequently, private cars stands for
70% of the CO2 reductions in the registration tax scenario while company
cars stands for 60% of the CO2 reductions in the circulation tax scenario.
In regard to the latter, it is important to note that the annual costs consist of
both circulation tax and fuel costs. It is assumed that an increase in the circulation tax of e.g. 1000 SEK would have the same effect as an increase in the annual fuel costs of the same amount. Furthermore, it is assumed that changes to
the circulation tax are fully reflected in the car purchase decision of company
cars.
Presently, the annual circulation tax paid by the company for a company car is
not reflected in the employee’s personal taxation. If this policy is maintained
then the model calculations referred to in this report overestimate the effect
from the circulation tax scenarios. Assuming that 33% of the company cars fall
into the group where the employee himself decide exactly which car to have
this overestimation amounts to 20% of the total CO2 reductions.
However, imposing a CO2 element to the circulation tax would make some of
the most ineffective cars very expensive in terms of annual taxation for the
company. Therefore, some companies would decide no longer to offer these
cars to their employee. Therefore, the real overestimation would probably be
substantially lower than 20%.
In the light of the higher sensitivity of company cars to the annual costs, and
because company cars constitute about 50% of the sales of new cars, these assumptions are important.
Conclusions
While care should be taken to compare the performance of the two systems, as
their impact on the tax burden of car purchasers and car owners differ, there are
nevertheless important generic conclusions to be made.
Thus, the analyses clearly point to the importance of distinguishing between tax
levels and tax differentiation. Roughly speaking, the level of the tax affects the
overall price structure per se, i.e. it makes cars relatively more expensive than
other consumer goods. Hence, it has an impact on whether people decide to
have a car. By comparison, differentiation affects the choice that people make,
but has less impact on the overall price structure (when comparing cars to other
consumer goods).
The registration tax clearly imposes new financial burdens on car purchasers as
it involves the introduction of a new tax. This increase in the level of the tax
has a negative impact on the size of the car fleet because it leads to overall price
increases of cars relative to other consumer goods. It thus leads to a reduction
of scrapping and a reduced sale of new cars. In addition to introducing an in-
24
crease in the tax level, the assumed design of the new registration tax however
also includes a tax differentiation element in the form of the CO2 dependent
part of the tax. This part imposes a unit price (tax) on each g of CO2 that is
emitted per kilometre5. This part of the tax does not have an influence on the
number of cars, but solely on the choice of car that people make.
The tax scenario for the circulation tax only assumes design changes in the existing tax thereby not influencing the average tax burden. Consequently, it has
no impact on the number of cars, but solely an influence on the type of car that
people decide to buy. If the average level of the circulation tax was increased,
this would have implications for the number of cars, and thereby a further CO2
reducing impact. An increase in the average level would also allow for a more
distinct differentiation and hence, a stronger impact on the choice of car as
well.
In conclusion, the study has shown that:
•
The assumed circulation tax can provide CO2 reductions in the order of 2%
in 20 years time without significant distorting effects on the structure of
the car fleet. While there is a shift from Swedish car makes to other brands,
it is relatively small and in reality the Swedish car manufacturing industry
will presumably adapt to this change among other things by means of developing and producing car types that are more adequate for the new conditions.
•
The registration tax will provide more CO2 reductions, but it will also involve more distinct adverse effects in the form of reduced car fleet, reduced sales of Swedish brands and increased average age of the cars. The
latter may be counterbalanced by means of the simultaneous introduction
of a scrapping premium scheme, which should nevertheless be designed
carefully to ensure its efficiency in relation to the CO2 objective.
The robustness of the results of the study as regards the registration tax has
been investigated through the conduct of sensitivity analyses. These analyses
show that the above conclusions are very robust in regard to a variety of assumptions including the level of the CO2 tax, the overall tax level, and the elasticity of scrapping. However, the results prove to be very sensitive to the size of
the overall price elasticity of the car fleet. The applied elasticity is -0.6 and has
been established based on consultations of relevant other studies. This elasticity
implies that an increase in prices of cars of 10% would lead to a 6% decline in
the car fleet. Changing the level of this elasticity down to -0.35 would imply
that the registration tax would lead to a 3% reduction compared to 5% when the
elasticity is –0.6. The reason for the lower effect is that a lower elasticity means
that the effect on the car fleet is substantially reduced.
Cost benefit analysis
The implications to society of the registration tax scenario and the circulation
tax scenario have been analysed by means of a cost benefit analysis. The analysis shows that the costs associated with the introduction of the registration tax
5
above the defined reference level
25
will outweigh the benefits. This is mainly a result of the decline in the size of
the car fleet. While the reduced car fleet provides CO2 reductions, it also involves a substantial welfare loss due to this decline. The value of this welfare
loss actually constitutes the dominating share of the costs of the registration tax.
The size of the negative net benefit depends however on the price used to value
the achieved CO2 reductions. By comparison, the cost benefit analysis indicates
that the circulation tax scenario will provide a net benefit to society. It will have
less distortion effects while at the same time providing for significant CO2 reductions. But, the reductions are lower than those achieved in the registration
tax scenario. The net benefits provided in this scenario will increase over time
as the new, and more fuel efficient, cars come to penetrate the car fleet more
over time.
The cost benefit analyses have also looked at the effects from the CO2 differentiated part of the two taxes alone, e.g. disregarding the effect on prices that will
result from the introduction of the registration tax per se. This analysis shows
that the CO2 differentiation would provide a net benefit to society in both cases,
but the effect is still largest for the circulation tax.
The rural population tend to buy larger, and less fuel efficient, cars than the urban population. Consequently, the rural population will be affected more than
the urban population by the tax scenarios. Equally, the calculations have also
shown that families with children tend to be affected more, in a negative sense,
that those without children. While these effects are not part of the cost benefit
analysis, as they relate mainly to concerns over distribution, they nevertheless
show that there will be distribution effects from the tax scenarios. Calculations
also indicate that the level of activity in the Swedish car manufacturing industry
will be affected negatively. This effect will be most pre-dominant for the registration tax, and further enhanced if account is taken of the effect on related industries as well. This effect is only of concern to the cost-benefit to the extent
that these activities are not replaced by activities elsewhere in the economy, but
again, they do illustrate that there will also be distorting effects on industry.
Policy implications
This study has shown that CO2 emissions can be affected by means of vehicle
taxation, and that the circulation tax would most likely be the most appropriate
instrument to use in that case. However, there are other options for affecting the
CO2 emissions from the car fleet. These options include other measures to affect the cost of driving, such as fuel costs or road pricing. These options have
however not been analysed here.
The calculations done in this study has been subject to the requirement that the
taxes should not result in more than 25% of downsizing. This limit does put a
limit to the amount of CO2 reductions that can be achieved. Thus, if significant
further reductions are desired more downsizing may be needed. If the target
consists of significantly higher reductions in the average CO2 emissions from
new cars this would call for more differentiation of the CO2 tax. More differentiation would require either a higher tax level or allow the tax to be become a
net subsidy for the most CO2 effective cars.
26
Policies which aim to encourage the purchase and use of more energy efficient
vehicles will tend to impose relatively more costs onto the rural population
compared to the urban population, and to be more in favour of families without
children compared to families with children. A consequence of these consumer
groups preference for bigger and more fuel consuming cars. Consequently,
there may be a wish for compensating measures to correct for this impact on
welfare distribution.
Outline of the executive summary
The rest of the executive summary outlines the purpose of the study and presents the applied methodology. Furthermore, all main results are presented –
both with respect to emissions and with respect to socio-economic consequences following the introduction of either a registration tax or a circulation
tax.
2.2
Purpose, scope of study and study organisation
Organisation
This report presents the results of a study undertaken for the Swedish
Environmental Protection Agency (Naturvårdsverket) and the Swedish Energy
Agency (Energimyndigheten). COWI A/S carried out the study in association
with the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) in the
period September to December 2001. The features of the assumed changes to
the tax system - the scenarios - were established in close collaboration with the
Swedish EPA and Energy Agency. Similarly, the definition of the types of results to be produced and alternative calculations to be carried out was also established in close collaboration with the client. In this regard, the three project
meetings that have been held with the clients and other governmental stakeholders at the premises of the EPA have been of utmost value6. The meetings
served to ensure a common basis of understanding of the project scope and project progress.
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to analyse the demand effects with regard to
household's purchase of new cars as a result of the introduction of CO2
differentiated registration taxes. During the conduct of the study, it was decided
to also include an analysis of the implications of redesigning the circulation tax
to include a CO2 dependent element. The analysis should look both at the
resulting CO2 emissions and at the implications for the sales of cars and the car
fleet. The study was to clearly distinguish between diesel cars and petrol cars
on the one hand, and between private cars and company cars on the other hand.
The study should not only look at the implications for the sales of new cars, but
also take into consideration impacts on scrapping behaviour and on the car
fleet. Socio-economic implications should be considered and the calculations
should apply both a short-termed, medium-termed and a long-termed view.
2.3
Reference level
Definition of the tax scenarios
In defining the tax scenarios, an essential feature is the definition of a reference
emissions level. CO2 taxes are only imposed for emissions that are in excess of
6
4 October, 15 November and 18 December
27
this reference level, and the tax becomes negative when the emissions are less
than the reference level. The CO2 tax base is always the amount (gram) of CO2
per kilometre minus the reference level. The reference level is the amount
(gram) of CO2 per kilometre that will result in a tax of zero.
Equally important, the systems are defined so that the total registration tax (or
circulation tax) can never be negative, i.e. net subsidy is not allowed for. Furthermore, the circulation tax has been defined to be budget neutral in the sense
that it should provide a revenue similar to the revenue that would be generated
under the current tax regime - not more and not less.
In defining the reference level, care has been taken to define it so that it on the
one hand acknowledges the importance of allowing for downsizing while at the
same time not leading to high levels of downsizing. To illustrate this further,
one may envisage two extremes. At the one extreme, one could imagine a system where the tax to be paid was solely determined by the amount (gram) of
CO2 per kilometre emitted by a car. Such a system would always reward the
smaller cars at the expense of the larger ones, and hence it would inevitably
lead to substantial downsizing. At the other extreme, one could imagine a system that solely aimed to affect people's choice of cars within given size categories. Such a system would not lead to any downsizing, but would actually have
the unintended effect of upsizing as the result of the smallest and most fuelefficient cars being imposed with a high tax in relation to car price compared to
bigger cars. Consequently, it would render the larger, more fuel effective cars
relatively less expensive than they were before.
In conclusion, a reference level has been defined, which allows for 25% downsizing. This is illustrated in the figure below where gram of CO2 per kilometre
is pictured against the area of the car.
28
Figure 2.1 CO2 reference level , Petrol Cars
600
CO2 per km
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Area (m2)
The curve shown in the figure is the result of a calculation, which attaches a
weight of 25% to the downsizing and a weight of 75% to a tax curve that would
not allow for downsizing at all. This is the applied reference level for petrol
cars. The figure contains indications for each car type on the Swedish market.
Cars above the line pay a CO2 tax and cars below get a CO2 rebate. If one allowed for 100% downsizing, the reference level would merely be a horizontal
line in this figure whereas no downsizing would imply a much steeper curve
than the one that is shown.
A similar reference level has been established for diesel cars. These reference
levels are used both in the scenario for circulation taxes and the one for
registration taxes.
The applied tax
scenarios
In designing the scenario for the registration tax, care has been taken to set a
level which does not result in unrealistically high taxes, but which is sufficiently high to provide for sufficient scope for differentiation and thereby for
significant behavioural changes resulting in reduced CO2 emissions. The resulting tax scenarios are summarised in the below table. It should be noted that the
resulting scenarios shown in the table have been established on the basis of a
number of preliminary calculations.
Table 2.1 Overview of the tax scenarios1).
Tax elements and
key features
Not CO2 dependent element
Circulation tax
Existing tax: tax is differentiated according to the kerb weight of the car
using a stepwise linear relation. The
tax increases by approximately 150
SEK for each 100 kilo for petrol cars
and by 575 SEK for diesel cars
Registration tax
Value based (new tax):
10% of the value of the car
29
CO2 dependent
element
44 SEK per gram above the reference level, and a similar negative
value if the emissions are below the
reference level
880 SEK per gram above
the reference level, and a
similar negative value if the
emissions are below the
reference level.
Other features
Total revenue from the circulation
tax should be unaffected
The total registration tax
cannot be negative
1)
Separate functions are calculated for diesel cars and for petrol cars, and the reference levels are illustrated in
Figur 1.1
2.4
Study approach
2.4.1 Model based analyses of the tax scenarios
An important basis for the study is the car choice model, which COWI has previously developed and used on several other occasions. The model contains a
detailed modelling of car purchasers' demand patterns. It allows for quite detailed analyses of how households' will react to possible changes in tax levels
and tax structures. This model constituted the basis for the construction of the
car demand module, which was applied in this study. This module was combined with a car fleet module and a scrapping module as illustrated below.
Figure 2.2
The model based
approach
Illustration of Entry and Exit
A model-based approach constitutes the core of this study. The figure above
illustrates the key aspects of this approach. Basically, the calculations make use
of three separate, but interrelated, modules:
•
•
•
A module for new car registrations
A module for the car fleet
A module for scrapping
New cars
The module for new car registrations assesses how households' choice of a
new car will be affected by changes to the price structure invoked by changed
or new taxes. This module builds on a detailed mapping of the sales of new cars
in Sweden in 1999/2000, which includes a variety of physical features, energy
efficiency ratios, and the price of each car type. Further, the module contains a
detailed mapping of the relevant socio-economic features of car buyers, and a
detailed mapping of the preferences and price elasticities of each group.
The car fleet
The module for the car fleet updates the car fleet each year with the results of
the two other modules, and it contains, as a starting point, a detailed mapping of
30
the Swedish car fleet as of September 2001. The study applies a short- medium
and long-termed (20 years) time horizon, and this module is consequently used
to keep track of the changes from one year to the other.
The scrapping of cars
The scrapping module is used to keep track of the scrapping of cars.
Scrapping is determined by two factors: the survival curve of the cars and the
price elasticity of scrapping.
Overall price
elasticity
If the overall tax burden that is invoked on car purchasers or car owners increase, this will most likely lead to a decline in the number of cars in the fleet.
The price elasticity of the scrapping module captures the tendency of people
keeping their cars for a longer time thus extending the average age of the cars.
An overall price elasticity is however necessary to capture the effect from the
resulting price increase on the car fleet thereby also taking account of the effect
on the sales of new cars. The study applies a long termed price elasticity for car
ownership of 0.6, i.e. a 10% increase in the price will result in a decline of the
car fleet of 6% in the longer term. This elasticity has been obtained in several
Swedish studies. The calculations assume that half of this effect is phased in
after 7 years and that the total effect is phased in after 30 years.
Energy efficiency
development
Experience shows that over the last decade, fuel efficiency of cars have improved by about 2% per year and the calculations assume that this trend will
continue.
A what-if approach
The model based approach outlined above is of a what-if nature. No attempts
are made to take account of macro-economic developments and other similar
dynamics. The strength of this approach is that it allows for a distinct analysis
of the CO2 performance and related side effects of the analysed tax instruments,
and that it reduces the amount of assumptions to be made and complexities to
be included. On the other hand though it implies that the model should not be
used for projections and forecasts.
2.4.2 Types of results
The model-based calculations provide results that illustrate the short-, medium
and long termed effects from the tax scenarios. Results are calculated for the
first year of the assumed change, and after five, ten and twenty years of implementation. For each year, a base situation is calculated. This base calculates the
results under the existing tax regime. Changes are thus calculated as the difference between the base situation for the year in question and the scenario results
for the year in question.
Baseline
The establishment of a base situation is critical to carrying out the requested
analyses. The base situation is one, which assumes that the existing taxes remain in place, and none of the assumed changes are implemented. The below
table summarises the base values for the first year regarding sales of new cars.
In assessing the results from the calculations of the implications of the assumed
tax scenarios, the results from the calculations are compared to the base values.
31
The table provides a brief description of the types of results that such comparisons will provide.
Table 2.2 Types of results and base values: sales of new cars.
Type of result
Base
values
Motivation
Average CO2 emissions
(g per km)
198.1
Illustrates the improvement in CO2 performance on
average (CO2 emission per kilometre per car)
Average lifetime tax
revenue (SEK/car)
96,237
Illustrates the average effect on each car owner's tax
payments over the lifetime of the vehicle (from purchase to scrap). The tax is calculated as registration
tax plus lifetime value of circulation tax and fuel tax
Average size
3.70
Changes in this indicator illustrate the order-ofmagnitude of up- or downsizing
Average Diesel share
6.5%
This result shows whether the share of diesel cars in
the sales of new cars change as a result of the assumed tax change
Average Swedish car
makes
30.5%
This result shows the share of Swedish car makes in
the total car sales.
Average registration tax
(SEK/car)
-
Average Circulation tax
(SEK/car/year)
1,566
Illustrates what happens to the average circulation tax
as a result of the assumed change. The introduction
of a registration tax may lead to changes in the registration tax as a result of a different mix of the car
sales.
Average dealers price,
SEK excl. VAT
145,825
Serves to provide an indicator of what happens to the
turnover of the car manufacturing industry. Needs to
be combined with the resulting amount of cars sold to
provide an accurate picture
Average (lifetime) tax
consists of
Registration tax
-
Shows the composition of the average life time tax to
be paid.
-
Circulation tax (whole
life time)
24,780
Fuel tax (whole life
time)
71,456
Note: Base values are based in model calculation of the base scenario
Similarly, Table 7.2 illustrates the base values regarding the car fleet. These
values cover the short, medium and long termed perspective.
The base values illustrate what would happen in the case where no changes
were made to the existing taxes. As can be seen the average CO2 emissions
(g/km/car) and the total CO2 emissions decline over the period. This is a result
largely of the observed technological progress that has taken place during the
last decade, and the assumption that this trend will continue. Past experience
shows that technological improvements have provided an annual improvement
in fuel efficiency of about 2%. The gradual replacement of old cars with new
32
and more fuel efficient cars lead to average reductions in the average CO2
emissions. The table also shows that over time, the average length of the vehicles will tend to decline a little whereas the cars will be slightly heavier on average. It is noteworthy also that the share of diesel cars will remain at a low
level, but increase from almost 5% up to 6.5%.
Table 2.3 Base scenario, total car fleet (1, 5, 10 and 20 years)
BASE
Number of cars
New car sales
Average CO2 emissions (g CO2/km)
Total CO2 emissions (ton)
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
Number of Swedish cars
Share of Swedish cars
Number of diesel cars
Share of diesel cars
1
4,153,155
205,154
235
11,994,305
8.9
451
1,340
1,365,726
32.9%
198,069
4.8%
Time horizon (in years)
5
10
4,153,155
4,153,156
226,536
195,659
221
203
11,364,228
10,458,465
9.0
9.4
449
447
1,375
1,402
1,289,483
1,248,816
31.0%
30.1%
236,867
276,989
5.7%
6.7%
20
4,153,152
240,064
162
8,325,037
9.2
442
1,408
1,255,375
30.2%
270,625
6.5%
As mentioned, the model is neither a projection nor a forecast model. Consequently, demand for cars is assumed to remain stable unless changes are invoked to the system in the form of for example price changes caused by
changes to the tax structure and/or the tax level. Therefore, the number of cars
in the fleet remains unaltered throughout the observed period in the base scenario. The base scenario is exactly a scenario, which assumes that there are no
changes to the current conditions. The sole exception from this relates to energy
efficiency, which is assumed to increase by 2% annually as described above.
Another factor, which has implications for the results of the base scenario, is
the pattern of scrapping. This pattern is determined by the age distribution of
the current fleet. The current fleet is distributed so that a large number of cars
are between 1 and 3 years old and between 12 and 14 years old respectively.
This distribution has implications for each year's turnover rates, and consequently it affects the resulting average age of vehicles, which is seen to fluctuate.
2.4.3 Sensitivity analyses
The calculations are subject to a number of critical assumptions. Therefore,
sensitivity analyses have constituted an important part of the study scope in order to illustrate the robustness of results.
Overview of sensitivity analyses
Sensitivity analyses have been conducted to assess the extent to which the results obtained are sensitive to these assumptions. The following sensitivity
analyses have been conducted. The sensitivity analyses have only been carried
out for the registration tax scenario, as this is the scenario that carries the largest effects.
33
Table 2.4 Overview of sensitivity analyses
Sensitivity
analyses
Motivation and description
Degree of CO2
differentiation
The original level of differentiation is 880 SEK per gram of CO2 above
the reference level. The alternative calculation assesses the extent to
which results are further accentuated when doubling this, i.e. applying
a rate of 1760 SEK per gram.
Level of registration tax
The level was originally set at 10% of the value. Given that the total tax
is not allowed to be negative, the alternative analysis aims to investigate whether an increase in this level (up to 20%) can provide further
reductions and what this would imply of additional side effects. The
constraint that it can never be negative implies namely that the level of
the value-based tax to some extent defines the scope for the level of
differentiation that can be applied, but the level on the other hand also
has an impact on the average age of cars, and this effect works in the
opposite direction.
Levels of
downsizing
In the original set-up, allowance is made for 25% downsizing. Increasing this amount has not implications for the size of the car fleet (determined by the overall price elasticity), but it affects car purchaser's
choice of new cars. The more downsizing is allowed for, the more will
people tend to choose the smaller and more fuel effective cars.
Separate tax
functions
The scenarios apply different tax functions (with similar forms) for diesel and petrol cars. These functions may have implications for the results. To assess this, the two functions are merged into one.
Price elasticity
of scrapping
The price elasticity of scrapping partly determines the speed by which
the car fleet is renewed and the speed by which it adapts to the new
conditions. Therefore, the implications of halving the original price elasticity are investigated.
Size of the
overall price
elasticity
The size of the overall price elasticity determines the number of cars
that will constitute the car fleet. Originally, the elasticity was set at -0.6.
Reducing it would imply that the impact on the car fleet would be reduced in terms of number of cars and average age. Consequently,
however, one would also expect to see a lower reduction in total CO2
emissions. The sensitivity analyses investigates the changes that
would occur if an elasticity of -0.35 is applied instead of -0.6.
Phase-in of the
overall price
elasticity
The price elasticity of -0.6 is long-termed in the sense that it takes
many years until the full effect is realised. Originally, the calculations
assume that half of the elasticity is phased in over a period of 7 years,
and the rest in the remainder of the total 30 year period. The sensitivity
analysis assumes that half of the elasticity is phased in over only 4
years instead and maintains the whole period as 30 years.
2.4.4 Socio-economics and cost benefit
In assessing the socio-economic implications, emphasis was put on two aspects,
viz.: the possible impact on the welfare of the rural population and the possible
impact on car manufacturing and the derived effect on for example supply industries.
Socio-economics
To illustrate the socio-economic implications of the tax scenarios, the following
analyses have been conducted:
34
♦ An analysis of the extent to which the rural population is affected more or
less relative to the urban population. This is assessed by means of providing
quantitative indicators of the relative tax burden imposed on rural and urban
population and on the welfare loss that each group will suffer as a result of
the tendency of choosing smaller cars than in the base case. In this analysis,
a distinction is made between singles and couples and between those with
children and those without children.
♦ An analysis of the extent to which employment will be affected. This is assessed by means of providing quantitative indicators of the employment
impact on car manufacturing and on vehicle sales, repair and maintenance
plus service stations.
Additionally, the study provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and
benefits that society will incur as a result of the tax scenarios. In this, the study
takes into account such factors as saved CO2 emissions, welfare loss due to
change in car size, loss of employment, loss of profits, effects on other emissions (NOx, particulates, SO2, HC), noise and accidents.
2.5
Sales of new cars
Results
2.5.1 CO2 reductions, sales of new cars, scrapping and the car
fleet
Tabell 1.5 and Tabell 1.6 show the results on new car sales from a registration
tax and a circulation tax respectively.
As can be seen, the circulation tax scenario has a more significant impact on the
composition of the sales of new cars than the registration tax has. It leads to a
decline down to 192.8 g/km/car in the emissions level compared to a resulting
average of 195.3 for the registration tax. This is concerned only however with
the sales of new cars.
It is interesting to note that both tax scenarios result in almost no changes to the
share made up by diesel cars. A major reason for this observation is that different reference levels have been applied for diesel and petrol cars to ensure that
there would not be a radical shift in the distribution between the two. The implications of merging the two into one tax function, i.e. applying the same reference level for both fuel types, however shows that this would only lead to
marginal changes also. The share of diesel cars would in this case only increase
by 0.5%.
35
Table 2.5 Results registration tax scenario
Base
Average CO2 emissions (g per km)
Average lifetime tax revenue (SEK per car)
Average size
Average Swedish car makes
Average registration tax (SEK per car)
Average Circulation tax (SEK per car per
year)
Average dealers price, SEK excl. VAT
Average (lifetime) tax consists of (SEK)
Registration tax
Circulation tax (whole life time)
Fuel tax (whole life time)
New registration tax
198.1
195.3
96,237
3.70
6.5%
30.5%
115,227
3.66
6.5%
29.2%
1,566
20,161
1,558
145,825
143,854
24,780
71,456
20,161
24,543
70,523
Table 2.6 Results circulation tax scenario
Base
Average size
Average Circulation tax (SEK per car per
year)
Registration tax
The car fleet
198.1
New circulation tax
192.8
96,237
3.70
6.5%
30.5%
92,497
3.65
6.6%
29.5%
1,566
1,443
145,825
142,120
24,780
71,456
22,766
69,731
When considering the whole car fleet, the registration tax still brings about the
largest total decline in CO2 emissions. This is largely because the circulation
tax does not at all affect the size of the car fleet. The reason for this being that
the circulation tax is merely a reconstruction of the existing tax, whereas the
registration tax involves the establishment of a new tax that is additional to the
existing circulation tax. Consequently, the registration tax scenario affects the
costs of cars relative to other consumer goods, while the circulation tax does
not.
36
The analyses show that a registration tax that consists of a CO2 tax of 880 SEK
per gram of CO2 per car plus a value based element of 10% will provide CO2
reductions in the order of 5% in the longer term (20 years). In the medium term,
the reductions will be in the order of 3% and 2% in 10 and 5 years time respectively. However, the corresponding change in the average emissions per car is
negligible, so the bulk of the reduction is provided through the reduction in the
car fleet.
This scenario also leads to an increase in the average age, as a result of reduced
scrapping. In twenty years, the model-based calculations show that the average
age will have increased by half a year.
The results from the two tax scenarios for the car fleet are shown below.
The sales of Swedish cars are affected in both scenarios. This reflects the fact
that Swedish car makes tend to be larger than the average car make, and consequently they will be affected more than the average car by the assumed scenarios.
Table 2.7 Registration tax effects, total car fleet (1, 5, 10 and 20 years)
Change
Number of cars
New car sales
Total CO2 emissions (ton/year)
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
1
-24,846
-20.47%
0.37
-43,669
0.15
0.01
-1.82
-7,920
0.01%
-2,225
-0.03%
5
10
-114,289
-183,303
-12.59%
-6.81%
1.27
1.07
-203,436
-329,885
0.53
0.60
-0.07
-0.28
-6.80
-8.73
-41,043
-71,310
-0.14%
-0.41%
-10,372
-15,064
-0.10%
-0.07%
20
-253,094
-11.21%
-0.10
-410,717
0.53
-0.92
-10.79
-113,248
-0.94%
-17,940
-0.04%
Table 2.8 Circulation tax effects, total car fleet (1, 5, 10 and 20 years)
Change
1
Number of cars
New car sales
Total CO2 emissions (ton/year)
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
1
0.00%
-0.26
-10,322
0.00
-0.06
-0.60
-1,932
-0.05%
151
0.00%
5
10
0
0
0.00%
0.00%
-1.31
-2.41
-53,146
-97,978
0.00
0.00
-0.34
-0.65
-3.21
-6.17
-10,312
-19,824
-0.25%
-0.48%
805
1,547
0.02%
0.04%
20
2
0.00%
-3.90
-158,560
0.00
-1.20
-11.31
-36,356
-0.88%
2,836
0.07%
Sensitivity of results
from registration tax
scenario
Results
37
2.5.2 Sensitivity analyses
The sensitivity analyses were conducted only for the registration tax scenario,
as this scenario has the most significant impacts. The circulation tax scenario
does not affect the size of the car fleet, the number of new cars or scrapping
patterns. The circulation tax only has an impact on the composition of the sales
of new cars.
Six sensitivity analyses were conducted, and they showed the following (note
that all references to results from calculations refer to the 20 years time horizon):
Merely increasing the level of the CO2 tax only has a small effect on the
results. A doubling to a level of 1760 SEK/g only provides an additional reduction in total CO2 emissions in the order of 0.5 percentage points. The main reason for this is that while this allows a little more room for differentiation, this
effect is reduced or limited by the condition that the total tax payment can
never be negative. The higher tax level of 1760 SEK/g would more often result
in cases where the total tax payment should be negative (i.e. a subsidy would
result) according to the formula, but due to the constraint it is set at 0 instead.
Thus, the realised differentiation power is smaller than it could potentially have
been had this constraint not been applied.
Increasing the level of the value based part of the tax provides some additional CO2 reductions, but the car fleet declines more and the effect is to
some extent crowded out by an increase in the average age of cars. A doubling of the value based part of the tax up to 20% instead of the original 10%
would thus lead to an additional reduction in the order of 2 percentage points.
Further reductions in the number of cars are the most important contributor to
this further CO2 reduction. The increase in the value-based part of the tax provides more room for the differentiated CO2 tax, but the resulting effect from
this proves to be quite limited. Furthermore, the higher tax level results in a further increase in the average age of the cars, which counteracts the CO2 reductions.
Increasing the level of downsizing further will affect the composition of the
sales of new cars, although the impact will be limited. The current level of
allowed downsizing of 25% is sufficient to capture most of the potential CO2
reduction in terms of average emissions from new cars. Actually, calculations
show that about 80% of the potential reduction are harvested through this level
of downsizing. Increasing the allowed level further would thus provide only
limited additional reductions, and at the same time it would have further negative repercussions on the car sales. This effect would be most outspoken in the
case of the circulation tax scenario, as this scenario is considered solely achieving CO2 reductions through changes to the composition of the sales of new cars.
Merging the two tax functions for diesel and for petrol into one function
only has a very little impact on the results. The most significant effect is an
increase in the share of diesel cars by 0.5%.
38
If the real outcome of scrapping is lower than originally anticipated, the
registration tax scenario would provide a little more CO2 reductions. Applying an elasticity, which is half of what it was originally would result in additional reductions in the order of only 0.5 percentage points. This reduction is
the result of two effects. First, the smaller elasticity would imply that while
people would still tend to keep their cars longer as a result of the increase, this
effect would be reduced compared to the original scenario. Consequently, the
average age would not increase as much as in the original scenario. Second, the
lower scrapping would also result in more sales of new cars than in the original
scenario.
If the price elasticity of the car fleet is lower than originally anticipated,
the registration tax would bring significantly less CO2 reductions and the
car fleet would significantly less affected. If a price elasticity of -0.35 is applied instead of the original -0.6, the registration tax would provide CO2 reductions in the order of 3%, and the car fleet would be reduced by 3.7% as well.
Thus, the size of the elasticity has a determining impact on the results of the
calculations.
Accelerated phase in of the price elasticity would lead to more significant
changes in the first years after implementation. The time perspective of the
price elasticity thus has important implications for the distribution of the effects
over time.
Robustness of results
Urban and rural
population
Concludingly, the results of the analyses are quite robust as regards a number
of the key assumptions. The results are affected only very little from changes in
the tax level, the level of the CO2 tax, the elasticity of scrapping. The level of
the overall price elasticity however has important implications for the results,
and the way that the elasticity is assumed to be phased in affects the order-ofmagnitude of the short- and medium termed effects in particular.
2.5.3 Socio-economics and cost-benefit analysis
The analyses show that families in rural areas tend to buy more expensive cars
than families in urban areas. Their average income is lower, and consequently,
they use a significantly higher proportion of their income for car purchase.
Consequently, the tax scenarios will have larger negative implications for the
rural population than for the urban population. The below table illustrates the
impact on the tax burden for the urban and the rural population respectively.
39
Table 2.9 Tax burden implications of the registration tax scenario and the circulation
tax scenario
Tax scenario
Family type
Single without children
Registration tax
Circulation tax
Average registration tax in
percent of average income
Percentage change in average
circulation tax
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
10%
12%
-11%
-1%
Single with children
8%
9%
-5%
-2%
Couple without children
5%
7%
-10%
3%
Couple with children
4%
7%
-8%
5%
Another important aspect of the implications for rural and urban population is
the welfare loss that is suffered as a result of behavioural changes that are invoked by the price changes. Some people will no longer have a car as a result
of the price increases invoked by the registration tax, and some will choose to
buy one that is different from the one that they would have otherwise as a result
of the CO2 differentiated tax.
The below table summarises the calculated welfare loss that will be suffered by
the different family types and urban and rural areas respectively. As can be seen
the welfare loss is higher for the rural population than for the urban population
in all cases. Furthermore, the registration tax causes a much higher welfare loss
than the circulation tax. This is due to the substantial welfare loss that is suffered as a result of the decline in the number of cars.
Table 2.10 Welfare loss to rural and urban population as a result of the tax scenarios
(SEK/car - total life time)
Tax scenario
Family type
Registration tax 1)
Urban
Rural
Circulation tax
Urban
Rural
-21,557
-26,447
-3275
-4212
-25,986
-28,826
-4876
-4773
Couples without children
-24,913
-32,114
-4037
-4404
-28,900
-39,159
-5539
-5599
1) This is the welfare loss from the introduction of the tax per se as well as from the CO2
differentiated element. The latter accounts for the dominating share.
Car manufacturing
industry and derived
industries
Both scenarios will affect the sales of Swedish cars in Sweden. This in turn will
affect the Swedish car manufacturing industry. The total change in the sales of
Swedish cars that will result in the two scenarios is shown below. The registration tax results in the largest change. This is due mainly to the fact that this scenario involves the introduction of a new tax that is additional to the tax that is
already in place, whereas the circulation tax is merely a reconstruction of the
existing tax. Thus, the circulation tax scenario leads to a decline in the sales of
Swedish cars and a corresponding increase in the sales of other cars, whereas
40
the registration tax scenario leads to an overall decline in the number of cars
that are sold.
Table 2.11 Change in the number of Swedish cars sold in Sweden in the two scenarios.
Number of cars.
Time horizon/scenario
Registration tax scenario
Circulation tax scenario
1 year
5 years
10 years
20 years
-14,184
-10,409
-5,664
-10,056
-1,932
-2,133
-1,843
-2,261
The reduced demand for Swedish cars in the Swedish market thus leads to a
decline in the level of activity in Swedish car manufacturing. To provide an indicator of the effect from this, this effect is translated into employment effect. It
is estimated that the resulting loss of employment in the car manufacturing industry will correspond to the values shown below. These are based on a number
of assumptions, which were made in order to derive an estimate of employment/car, and to correct for the distribution of production between the Netherlands and Sweden. In addition to the effect on the car manufacturing industry,
other related industries can be affected as well. Among the most important related industries, one finds the car sales, car repair and maintenance and gas stations. The employment effect on this industry has therefore also been sought
quantified. This quantification again rests on a number of simplifying assumptions regarding employment/car/year, and this effect is related to the effect that
the tax scenario has on the overall size of the car fleet as shown in tables Tabell
1.7 and Table 7.7.
Table 2.12 Loss of employment as a result of the decline in the sales of new Swedish
cars. Number of employees (including owner/self-employed)
Time horizon/scenario
1 year
5 years
10 years
20 years
-1,348
-3,367
-3,514
-5,447
- of which car manufacturing
-971
-1,633
-733
-1,608
- of which car sales and repair
-377
-1,734
-2,781
-3,839
-1
-2
-2
-4
Circulation tax scenario
-183
-203
-175
-214
- of which car manufacturing
-183
-203
-175
-214
0
0
0
0
>-1
>-1
>-1
>-1
Registration tax scenario
Effect relative to base, %
- of which car sales and repair
Effect relative to base, %
The table illustrates that the introduction of a registration tax that includes a
CO2 differentiated element has the largest effect on employment. This is a result mainly of the decline in the size of the car fleet that result from this scenario.
41
A cost benefit analyses has been conducted to provide an indication of the signs
and the orders-of-magnitude of the effects on society from the two tax scenarios. The results from these calculations are shown below. Such calculations are
always subject to a range of assumptions and uncertainties, and the analysis
done in this study is quite rudimentary. While it should also be underlined that
the results for the two scenarios are not fully compatible, as the registration tax
includes the introduction of a new tax, the results nevertheless serve to underpin the previous comparative conclusions.
The analysis below assumes that a certain, and increasing, fraction of those
who become unemployed will find other employment elsewhere, and that the
economic activity in question will compensate for the corresponding loss of
profits. The analysis applies a unit price of CO2 reductions of 1,50 SEK. The
costs of fewer and smaller cars have been calculated as a welfare loss, and consequently effects on energy use are included in this. The effects on the emissions of other pollutants is determined partly by the types of vehicles chosen,
and partly by the speed by which new Euro norms can be phased in. Reduced
scrapping per se thus leads to a delayed penetration of the new norms compared
to what would otherwise have happened.
Table 2.13 Results of cost benefit analysis of the two tax scenarios (million SEK)
Cost and benefit items
Registration tax
scenario
Circulation tax
scenario
Year
Year
1
20
1
20
Costs
- smaller cars
- fewer cars
57
113
75
1,152
39
0
46
0
- employment
- profit
25
43
9
26
3
4
0
1
239
1,262
45
47
80
-57
46
3
73
-166
-166
768
54
472
31
1,326
64
26
-1,096
20
0
0
0
20
-26
-26
301
-3
0
0
298
251
115
1,767
Total costs
Benefits
- CO2 reductions
- other pollutants
- accidents
- noise
Total benefit
Total net benefit/year
- discounted
Total cumulated net benefit
42
3
Introduction
3.1
Background and purpose
43
This report presents the results of a study undertaken for the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (Naturvårdsverket) and the Swedish Energy Agency
(Energimyndigheten). COWI A/S has carried out the study in association with
VTI (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute).
The study was launched in August 2001. COWI submitted its proposal in early
September 2001, and was awarded the contract later that month. The study was
completed on 21 December 2001.
The technical specifications
The technical specifications for the tender called for a study to analyse demand
effects, with regard to households' purchase of new cars as a result of the introduction of various CO2 differentiated registration taxes. Based thereupon, the
study would consequently include an assessment of how such demand changes
would affect CO2 emissions from passenger cars.
In doing this, the study was to consider:
•
•
•
How the demand for new passenger cars would change as a result of a possible CO2 differentiated registration tax
How the possible CO2 differentiated tax will impact upon the total sales of
new cars and the composition of the vehicle fleet with regard to age, size
distribution, petrol/diesel shares, average CO2 emissions of new cars and
scrapping
The impact on annual mileage from the choice of more fuel efficient cars
(the rebound effect)
The study was to include both company cars and private cars, and it should allow for an assessment of the implications for the proportion of petrol and diesel
cars respectively of the total sales of new cars.
The Technical Specifications requested that the following effects should be
looked at in quantitative terms:
• Effects on average CO2 emissions from new cars
• Effects on annual vehicle sales and vehicle scrapping
44
• Effects on CO2 emissions from the vehicle fleet in 1,5, 10 and 20 years
respectively.
The results of the study are to be used as background information for possible
future designs of CO2 differentiated taxes including registration taxes and encompassing an assessment of their environmental and socio-economic implications.
Basis for the study
COWI AS has developed a detailed car choice model, which has been used for
similar purposes on several other occasions. The model contains a detailed
modelling of car purchasers' demand patterns. It allows for quite detailed analyses of how households' will react to possible changes in the tax levels and the
tax structures. This model, combined with the knowledge, expertise and relevant previous work with VTI, thus provides a strong basis for the conduct of
the present study within the relative short period of calendar time.
Additions to the
Technical Specifications
As stipulated in the Technical Specifications, the further contents and scope of
the study has been established during the conduct of the study and in close collaboration with the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and the Swedish
Energy Agency. It was thus decided not only to consider registration taxes but
also to include calculations that looked more into CO2 differentiated annual
taxes (circulation taxes).
3.2
Model approach
Approach and study organisation
A model-based approach was applied to address the purpose of the study and
the related requirements as stipulated in the Technical Specifications. It basically consists of three modules:
• A car demand module which assesses the changes in the demand for new
passenger cars as a result of the assumed price changes (that result from the
taxes)
• A car fleet module, which, at the starting point, consists of the car fleet in
Sweden in year 2001.
• A scrapping module constructed on the basis of historic data.
Each year, the car fleet module is updated with the calculated results from the
car demand module and the impacts on scrapping are calculated. Thereby, it is
then possible to calculate an estimate of the resulting size of the car fleet. Thus,
the assumed change of the tax system is entered into the car demand module
(through its impact on car prices and/or car running costs), and the consequent
impacts on car demand and scrapping are assessed. An overall price elasticity is
used to allow for estimations of the impacts on the total sales volume and on
the size of the car fleet.
Socio-economic
assessment
In assessing the socio-economic implications, emphasis was put on two aspects:
45
• The possible impact on the welfare of the rural population
• The possible impact on employment focusing on car manufacturing and the
most important related industry (i.e. car sales, repair and maintenance plus
service stations).
Setting up scenarios
The core features of the assumed changes to the tax system - the scenarios were established in close collaboration with the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Agency. Similarly, the definition of the types of results to be produced and the alternative calculations to be carried out was done
also in close collaboration with the client.
Study organisation
In this regard, the three project meetings that have been held with the client at
the premises of the Swedish EPA have been of utmost value7. The meetings
served to ensure a common basis of understanding of the project scope and project progress. Among the issues that have been discussed at these meetings are
the following: the operational scope of the study, how to prioritise the efforts of
the consultant, the definition of the base scenario and alternative scenarios and
the scope of the socio-economic analyses. In addition, project meetings have
been held internally on a regular basis, and a one-day working session was held
with the participation also of VTI.
To ensure a smooth and effective implementation of the project and in the light
of the limited calendar time allocated for the study, a small core team was established. The team consisted of: Malene Sand Jespersen (project manager),
Jørgen Jordal-Jørgensen (daily team leader), Nicolai Kristensen (economist)
and Anders Pontus Matstroms (numerical analysis and transport research in
Sweden).
3.3
Outline of this report
This report presents the results of the study. The report is organised as follows:
Chapter 2 describes the overall model approach as well as the separate modules
in more detail. This includes also an explanation of the method used to derive
the CO2 emissions from the vehicle fleet, of how company cars and private cars
are treated in the model and how the split between diesel and petrol cars is calculated. Furthermore, chapter 2 describes in more detail the method used to
provide an assessment of the socio-economic implications of the scenarios that
have been analysed.
Chapter 3 provides an overview of the types of data that are used to provide the
requested quantitative estimates for the sales of new cars, the vehicle fleet and
scrapping. This includes a description of both the data that relates to the vehicles in physical and monetary terms, and the data that relates to the socioeconomics of car buyers. The latter is an essential feature of the car choice
model. The chapter explains the overall price elasticity that has been used to
7
4 October, 15 November and 18 December
46
estimate the impact on the sales volume and the size of the car fleet. Lastly, the
chapter also provides an overview of the data used to assess the socio-economic
implications of the scenarios.
Chapter 4 explains and motivates the scenarios that have been selected for detailed analyses. Two base scenarios are identified. The first scenario assumes
that a registration tax is introduced, which contains a CO2 differentiated element. The other scenario assumes that the existing circulation tax is restructured to include a CO2 differentiated element. In both cases, an upper limit is
defined for the tolerable total tax level. The definition and operational scope of
the scenarios were supported by a number of initial calculations. The chapter
provides an overview of results from these initial calculations that were used as
background for establishing the level of tax, the level of differentiation and the
type of the tax to use. Further, the chapter provides an overview of the types of
results that the model calculations provide. The chapter explains the core features of the base scenario and it outlines the types of alternative calculations
(sensitivity analyses) that assist to assess the sensitivity of results in regard to
certain specified parameters.
Chapter 5 provides an overview of the results that are provided from the model
based calculations. The chapter summarises and discusses the resulting output
tables which provides information, among other things, on:
The resulting CO2 emissions in total and per car,
The size of the car fleet,
The sales volume (number of new cars sold),
The average age, length and weight of cars,
Tax revenue and average tax payment per car,
The split between petrol and diesel cars,
The composition of the car sales and vehicle fleet with regard to car makes
(separating also the domestic brands from foreign brands),
• The level of downsizing,
• The average and total dealer's price,
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
In addition, the chapter summarises the results of alternative calculations that
are used to assess the sensitivity of results with regard to certain parameters and
assumptions. The parameters that are analysed are:
•
•
•
•
The overall price elasticity
The price elasticity of scrapping
The tax level
The level of differentiation
Chapter 6 assesses the socio-economic implications of the base scenario focusing on impacts on rural/urban population and on employment effects related to
the effects on the Swedish car manufacturing industry and the sector encompasses car sales, repair and maintenance plus service stations.
Chapter 7 assesses the overall gains and losses to society from introducing the
tax changes that are contained in the two scenarios. This is done by means of a
47
cost-benefit analysis that seeks to take into account all the major effects and to
quantify those in monetary terms.
Chapter 8 summarises the generic conclusions that can be drawn from this
study. The chapter thus discusses the amount of CO2 reductions that can be
achieved from rethinking the vehicle taxation system within the revenue limits
that can be tolerated. In this, the chapter also discusses the appropriateness of
the registration tax versus the circulation tax, and the extent to which the level
of the tax matters compared to the level of differentiation. The chapter discusses the medium and long termed effects with regard to CO2 emissions from
the vehicle fleet.
48
4
49
Model and methodology
This chapter explains first the construction of the three-tiered model based approach and its underlying thinking. First, the overall approach and the interlinkages between the various modules are explained. Second, each module is
described in more detail followed by a description of the role played by the
overall price elasticity and other elasticities. Lastly, the chapter summarises the
approach taken to provide the socio-economic analysis of the results. The latter
includes also the cost-benefit analysis.
4.1
The overall model framework and methodology
This section explains the above three modules in overall terms, and provides a
thorough description of how they work together and how the relevant policy
instruments (the circulation tax and in particular the registration tax) influence
the entire model-framework. The more detailed description of the three modules is contained in sections 4.2, 4.3 and 0.
Model framework
The general idea is to make an explicit modelling of entry (new car
registrations) and exit (scrappage) into the car fleet. This idea is illustrated in
the following figure.
Figure 4.1
Current car fleet
Illustration of Entry and Exit
At the point of departure, the current stock of cars is the total car fleet in
Sweden. The CO2 emissions of the cars in the existing fleet differ according to
car age, engine size, diesel/petrol and whether the car is of a Swedish fabricate
or not. The set-up however does not take into account that the CO2 emissions
may also vary for different variants of cars. This implies for example that the
exact emissions from a Ford Focus 1.6 collection 3D is not used as input to the
model. The current car fleet is updated sequentially year by year by adding the
inflow of new cars and by subtracting the outflow of scrapped cars. For new
cars the exact CO2 emissions are known.
50
Inflow
The inflow of new cars to the car fleet is estimated using the car choice model
for Sweden, which was previously developed by COWI for the European
Commission. This model uses data on car price and operation costs, vehicle
characteristics and socio-economic features of car buyers, cf. section 4.2 to derive its outputs.
Outflow
The outflow of cars from the car fleet is determined in the scrapping module,
cf. section 4.3. The car characteristics of the scrapped cars are car age, engine
size and whether the car is diesel or petrol driven.
Socio-economics and
cost-benefit
A number of socio-economic characteristics are included in the analysis. The
data allow for an analysis of the socio-economic effects from introducing a registration tax in terms of the effects across different family structures, income
and the level of urbanisation. Furthermore, the results from the model calculations are analysed with a view to assessing the impact on industry's employment. Lastly, the results of the study are combined in a cost-benefit analysis
that aims to assess the costs and benefits from the two tax scenarios that are
analysed and to compare these.
Elasticities
To properly reflect the developments over time, elasticities that affect the
inflow and outflow of cars to and from the car fleet are added on cf. section 5.7.
These elasticities cover:
•
•
•
The rebound effect; i.e. the change in the annual driven distance as a result
of people driving more fuel-effective cars (when cars are more fuel efficient, the running cost per kilometre is reduced)
The change in the size of the car fleet as a result of a change in the price of
cars, e.g. as a result of introducing a registration tax (the more expensive
cars become relative to other consumer goods, the less will the demand for
cars be)
The change in the number of scrapped cars as a result of a change in the
price of cars, e.g. as a result of introducing a registration tax (the more expensive cars become to acquire, the longer will it take until the cars are
scrapped)
The effects described above are illustrated in Figure 4.2.
51
Figure 4.2 Module description
4.2
Model background
and overall approach
The EU model compared to this study
The car choice model
4.2.1 Model scope and approach
The COWI Cross Country Car Choice Model is used in this study to do the
model-based calculations. This model is a further development of the Car
Choice Model that was originally developed in a Danish context, and which
was further developed in connection with the study on "Fiscal Measures to reduce CO2 Emissions from Passenger Cars" undertaken by COWI AS in 2001
for EU DG-ENV. The latter included among other things the development of a
specific model for Sweden, and this model constitutes the starting point for the
present study.
However, in the context of this study, modifications are made to among other
things the socio-economic database of the model and the result tables to be provided by the model. These modifications serve to ensure that the model can
properly address the specific questions that are raised in this study, cf. section
3.1. For example, the results provided by the EU model were subject to certain
conditions, viz.: the proportion of diesel vehicles should not increase, the scenarios should be budget neutral and there should be no downsizing as a result
of the scenarios. It is important to be aware of these differences as they do in-
52
fluence the scope of action set by the scenario calculations as well as the results
per se.
Generic features of
the model
The model can be termed a "what if" model in the sense that it does not perform
projections nor forecasts. It is thus not a prognostic model. Rather, the model
merely calculates what would happen to today's car demand if certain
characteristics of today's tax systems were changed (i.e. the scenario
assumptions), all other things being equal. In undertaking the assessments and
the scenario analyses, the model simply compares the results of the present
situation with the hypothetical situation where the tax structure and/or the tax
levels is assumed to be different. The model only includes new cars.
Consequently, second hand cars are excluded from the analyses undertaken in
this module.
Furthermore, the model-based calculations only consider passenger cars with
petrol and diesel engines. Other technologies could in principle be included as
well, as long as they are in supply today. The major motivation underlying this
delineation is the scarce current supply of cars equipped for alternative fuels,
which renders estimations on these cars less robust.
Car purchase decisions are based on a number of parameters. Apart from those
that relate to the car (technical and financial parameters including taxes) the
model also considers the income, household structure and age of the purchaser
of the car. These socio-economic features of car buyers are accounted for at the
model calibration stage. Compared to the EU model, the socio-economic features of car buyers are extended here to include singles with children explicitly
and to distinguish between rural and non-rural population. Being a what-if
model, the model does not take into account that demand patterns may change
in the future as a result of for example changes in fashion, changes in production costs and pricing policies of manufacturers and innovation.
The model includes both private cars and company cars. The demand for private cars and for company cars are calculated separately and then combined
taking the proportion of company cars into account. Company cars are less sensitive to price changes relative to private cars, while they are more sensitive to
annual cost (circulation tax and fuel costs) than private cars. These features are
taken account of in the model calculations and they are very important, because
company cars constitute about 50% of the sales of new cars in Sweden.
The most important parameters of the model are the parameters related to the
car price on the one hand and the annual cost on the other hand. The annual
costs consist of the annual tax and the annual fuel cost. Consequently, it is assumed that the car purchasers consider fuel cost and circulation tax in the same
way when making his purchase decision. In other words, an increase of 1000
SEK in the annual tax is assumed to have the same effect as an increase in the
annual fuel cost of 1000 SEK. Furthermore it should be noted that the effect
from changes to the annual tax for the company cars rests on the assumption
that such tax changes are reflected in the personal taxation of company cars.
Model output
Important outputs from the model are the structure of demand for new
passenger cars in Sweden and the associated average energy consumption and
53
CO2-emissions. New fiscal measures (e.g. a registration tax) can be introduced
into the model and the consequential effects on the structure of demand for new
cars can be calculated acknowledging the above limitations.
4.2.2 Car choice model framework
The overall model set-up is illustrated in Figure 4.3.
Figure 4.3 Car choice model
Four parts of the
model
As shown, the model structure consists of four parts: The input data, the database, the model and the results/outputs:
•
The input data are the variables to be analysed in terms of their effect on
car purchase (e.g. a registration tax).
•
The database contains observed data from the market, such as prices and
technical characteristics of sold cars, plus assumptions made outside the
model (relating to for example annual mileage). The database also includes
54
socio-economic information enabling a characterisation of car buyers according to income level, household structure, urbanisation, children or no
children and age).
•
The model combines the estimated relations between the objective conditions (database and input data) and subjective consumer behaviour (the
elasticities derived from the parameter estimates, cf. Annex A).
•
The results/outputs are the calculated car purchases given the above input
data, database and model. The output includes information on the resulting
tax revenues, energy use, average car prices, composition of the resulting
sales of new vehicles, the consequent CO2 emissions from new cars, etc.
Input
The input data for the model are the relevant taxes. This includes the existing
circulation tax and the fuel tax, as well as the possible taxes or tax changes that
are assumed in the scenarios.
Private cars and
company cars
The model includes both private cars and company cars. The demand for cars is
estimated separately for private cars and company cars and then combined taking the company car share into account. It should be noted that, compared to
private cars, company cars are less sensitive to price changes. This observation
is included in the model calculations.
Outputs
The model outputs provide information on for example the distribution of the
total purchase of new passenger cars and the associated average CO2-emissions
given the established assumptions about the fiscal measures (expressed by the
input data). The outputs may be decomposed in various dimensions as illustrated in Figure 4.3. The exact scheme for presentation of the outputs in this
report is described in chapter 7.
4.2.3 Database for the car choice model
The database includes three types of information on the purchases of new cars:
•
•
•
Socio-economic features of buyers of new cars
Information on car price and the running cost
Other, physical, vehicle characteristics including CO2 emissions
Car sales
Comprehensive and consistent sets of data on cars and car sales are available
for the last half of 1999 and the first half of 2000. Marketing Systems GmbH
provided these data on car sales and the associated prices and car features. The
data were originally acquired in the context of the EU study, and they are assessed to be adequately up-to-date to justify their use also in this study.
Socio-economic data
Socio-economic data were constructed in the above EU study as well. These
data constitute the starting point for establishing the socio-economic database
for this study, but it is further modified in order to take into account also singles
with children and to allow for a differentiation between rural and non-rural car
purchasers.
55
Company cars
Company cars constitute approximately 50% of the total number of purchases
of new cars in Sweden (although it depends on the business cycle).8 The factors
that affect decisions on the purchase of company cars differ from those that affect the decisions on private cars. To improve the accuracy of the model information on the purchases of company cars and the taxation systems that govern
this part of the market was collected by means of a questionnaire in the context
of the mentioned EU study. The applicability and accuracy of this information
was assessed, and based thereupon it was decided to use these data also in this
study.
Car prices and costs
Among other things, the data on vehicles include the car prices. This
information, combined with information on relevant taxation including VAT, is
used to calculate the dealer's price (i.e. the price exclusive of VAT) and the associated car taxes. The exact derivation of the purchase price is done in a separate module. Another separate module derives the running costs per 100 km.
The car costs and the vehicle characteristics together with the socio-economic
data form the "consumer car characteristics", which are used as a basis for the
car choice model calculations.
4.2.4 The logit model
The logit model combines the information about the consumer car characteristics with the observed market data for car sales in order to establish reliable relations (and thereby elasticities) for consumer behaviour on the car market.
Hence, the first step of the model calibration is to establish a model set-up that
provides calculated results/outputs for today's situation which are reasonably
similar to the situation as it is actually observed.
Three sub-models
The car choice model consists of three sub-models. The first model determines
whether the consumer buys a private car or a company car. Two models are
used to determine the choice of car for the private car buyers and the choice of
car for the company car buyers, respectively. Thus, there are separate modules
covering private cars and company cars. In the private car model, consumers
are assumed first to choose the type of car and then, subsequently to choose the
specific car. This sequential discrete choice structure is estimated using a
nested logit model, cf. Annex A. In the company car model, the choice of the
car buyers’ (companies) is modelled in one step (a more simple non-nested
logit model). This step determines both the car type and the specific car at the
same time. The logit models build on the assumption that the consumer maximises his or her utility.
Outputs
The output of the model calculations is a large number of individual car
choices, summarised as the relative (probability-based) change in the purchase
of each car, e.g. as a result of introducing a registration tax. The relative change
8
Source: Statistiska meddelanden SSM 01:1, Fordon enligt bilregistret, fjärde kvartalet och
hela året 2000. The definition of a company car is: All cars owned by private or public
companies.
56
will be applied to the present pattern of car purchases in order to arrive at the
estimated number of specific cars purchased after the change of input data.
Among the most interesting results in the context of this study are the CO2
emissions that result from the alternative tax scenarios and the consequent effect on car purchases. This overall result may be decomposed and illustrated in
various ways and dimensions, as shown in Figure 4.3.
The model set-up and model considerations are described in more detail in the
Technical Annex.
4.3
The scrapping module
The scrapping module serves to keep track on the effects that changes to tax
system have on scrapping behaviour, and to ensure that scrapping is taken account of in general. Car owners tend to keep their cars longer when the price of
new cars increases. For the registration tax this means that the scrap rate has to
be elastic towards changes in the car price. The scrapping module thus needs to
have information on survival curves for the cars and on the effects that price
changes have on these curves.
Two sources
The scrapping module is therefore based on two sources:
•
•
Circulation tax does
not affect scrapping
Survival curves for the Swedish car fleet 1979-1995
Price change simulations in a model prepared for DETR, UK
The way that the circulation tax scenario is framed (described in chapter 6) imply that it will have no impact on the average car price, and hence it will not
affect neither scrapping (as expressed by the survival curves) nor the amount of
sold new cars. Consequently, there is no need for price change simulations in
the circulation tax scenario.
4.3.1 Survival curves
VTI supplied historical data on the survival rates of the Swedish car fleet across
different age groups. The Swedish survival curves provide aggregated survival
rates for the entire car fleet, i.e. across different types and sizes of cars as well
as for both petrol and diesel. The average life length (age) of cars increases
over time. However, trends in survival rates are not taken into account, because
the technology is assumed constant. A deviation from the constant technology
assumption is that the CO2 effectiveness is assumed to follow the historical
trend over time, cf. section 5.4, but this is assumed not to affect the average age
of cars, but merely their (energy) performance.
The applied survival rates are from 1995. This is the most recent year for which
we have observations for each age group, cf. Figure 4.4.
57
Figure 4.4 Conditional survival rates, Sweden (1995)
Conditional survival rate
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
Age
Along the vertical axis is the so-called conditional survival rate. This indicates
the probability that a given car will survive T+1 years given it has already survived T years.
4.3.2 Price change simulations
A registration tax will imply that the consumer prices of new cars will increase,
and the scrap rate of old cars will be expected to decrease, because car owners
will hold on to their old cars for longer than before. This effect is captured in
the scrapping module by applying an English simulation model from Department for the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR).
The model allows simulations of price increases and the resulting scrapping.
Hence, elasticities can be obtained by comparing the scrapping before and after
a simulated price change. The model is estimated on English data. It could
therefore be potentially relevant to adjust other factors of the model in order to
mirror Sweden as much as possible. The model allows for changes in such factors as for example, the speed limit, a possible scrapping subsidy and vehicle
running costs (including circulation tax). However, the model uses a constant
elasticity. Therefore, it is not relevant to introduce such changes in the other
variables. The constant elasticity implies that the changes would apply both
prior to and after a price change, and that the effect would therefore net out.
The model allows for a split between diesel and petrol cars. For the latter
group, the model also applies different elasticities across engine sizes. The increase in survival rates per percent price increase is shown in Table 4.1.
58
Table 4.1 Change in Survival per percent change in price, petrol and diesel cars
Engine Size, Petrol cars
Age of Vehicle < 1500
1500-2000 >2000
1
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
6
0
0
0
7
0.0000
-0.0001 -0.0002
8
0.0001
0.0000 -0.0002
9
0.0004
0.0002 -0.0004
10
0.0008
0.0008 0.0002
11
0.0015
0.0014 0.0004
12
0.0019
0.0019 0.0006
13
0.0025
0.0028 0.0014
14
0.0035
0.0034 0.0017
15+
0.0041
0.0048 0.0038
Diesel cars
All
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0000
0.0001
0.0004
0.0008
0.0014
0.0020
0.0021
0.0024
0.0023
One incorporates the price effect by multiplying the elasticity per percent with
the percentage increase in prices. In order to calculate the size and composition
of the car fleet after the price change, one adds the resulting increase in the survival rate to the survival rates obtained from the historical survival curves.
4.4
The car fleet module
Method of calculation
The car fleet module keeps track of the number of cars in the fleet at any point
in time. The starting point is the entire Swedish car fleet as of September 2001.
During a year, some of these cars are scrapped and the remaining cars become
one year older. To this new “temporary fleet” we add the new cars that have
been sold during the year. This information is entered from the Car Choice
Model. These cars have the age of 0. In this manner the car fleet for 2002 is
modelled. Cars are then scrapped again during the following year, the remaining become another year older, etc.
Categories of cars
The fleet (as well as the cars that enters it or the cars that are scrapped) is
characterised by the following variables:
•
•
•
•
Age (0 to 25+)
Engine size (3 groups)
Diesel or petrol
Swedish fabricate or not Swedish
59
These 4 categories give 312 different groups of cars.9 For each of these groups
the fleet module also contain information on:
•
•
•
•
4.5
Average CO2 emissions with the group
Average length
Average weight
Number of cars in each group
Socio-economics
4.5.1 Effects on urban and rural car purchasers
Changes to the car tax structure have different implications for different families. This is because the different types of families prefer different types of cars.
Focus on distribution
effects
The assessment here focuses on the distribution effects. For example, it aims to
assess how the tax burden is distributed between different types of families, and
to analyse how the invoked shifts in the demand for new cars are distributed
between different types of families.
To this end the Danish model has been re-estimated to allow for different demand preferences in the relevant family types. Furthermore, a new set of data
for Swedish car purchasers has been set up to support this dimension of the
model calculations.
4.5.2 Car manufacturing
Changes in the level of economic activity of the car manufacturing industry
have repercussions both on the car manufacturing industry itself as well as on
other related sectors, upstream and downstream.
Focus on most important sectors
The assessment here centres on the task of identifying the most important sectors that can be affected and the extent to which they will be affected by
changes in level of economic activity of the car manufacturing industry. For the
most important sectors, the employment effects that will result from the scenarios are assessed in quantitative terms.
9
26 x 3 x 2 x 2 = 312. (26 is the life span of the cars, 3 covers the three engines groups, 2
covers the options of either petrol or diesel driven, and 2 expresses that the car may be of a
Swedish fabricate or not.
60
61
5
Data and model inputs
5.1
Taxes and charges
Table 5.1 below provides an overview of the relevant taxes and charges that are
currently in effect in Sweden. The information is derived from the EU study.
Table 5.1 Existing taxes and charges in Sweden relevant for this study
Type of tax
Level and features
VAT on car purchase
25%
Fuel tax, petrol
4.6 SEK/litre
Fuel tax, diesel
3.0 SEK/litre
Circulation tax
Differentiated according to the kerb weight of the car using a
stepwise linear relation. The tax increases by approximately 150
SEK for each 100 kg for petrol cars and approximately 572 SEK
per 100 kg for diesel cars.
Annual tax on company cars
Value based tax: 10,980 SEK plus 9% of the value of the car.
5.2
Vehicle sales
Marketing Systems GmbH has supplied the Consultant with monthly records of
all new registrations (from January 1999 to the latest available data for 2000).
The set of data refers to all passenger cars. Thus, it includes both those that are
purchased and used privately, and those that are purchased under a company
scheme, but used also or solely for private purposes.
Technical variables
and vehicle characteristics
All new registration entries (for example, Audi TT 1,8 Roadster) are linked to
the various technical variables and vehicle characteristics, as shown in Table
5.2 overleaf.
62
Table 5.2
Descriptive vehicle variables
Variable
Definition
Number of doors
2, 3, 4 or 5
Transmission
manual / automatic
Air-conditioning
Body type
Price (incl. All taxes)
Driven wheel
front / rear / all
Space index
Length
millimetres
Width
millimetres
Wheel base
millimetres
Turning diameter
metres
Luggage capacity
Fuel type
super unleaded 95 RON / diesel
Acceleration (0 to 100 km/h)
seconds
Fuel consumption
ECE litres per 100 km
CO2 emission per km
Driver airbag
standard / optional
Passenger airbag
standard / optional
Side airbags
standard / optional
Engine size
cubic centimetres
HP
Top speed
miles per hour
Weight
kerb weight and GVW (gross vehicle weight)
Engine type
in-line / V-type
Number of cylinders
Number of valves per cylinder
2, 3, 4 or 5
Price inclusive of tax and VAT
NOTE:
Features of new cars
in Sweden
the above variables are inventoried for each vehicle type (for example, Audi TT
1,8 T Roadster), which is given a unique identification code (in this example,
aud-tt0010).
The following table provides a summary of how selected vehicle characteristics
apply to new registered cars in Sweden.
63
Table 5.3 New car characteristics
Car type
Registrations
Average
engine size
2%
1,109
147
81,550
Small
13%
1,414
162
108,020
Lower medium
26%
1,661
181
148,685
Medium
29%
1,938
200
200,279
Upper medium
25%
2,399
223
270,626
Luxury
0%
3,905
293
660,352
Sport
1%
2,177
218
302,315
Off-road
2%
2,651
275
263,560
MPV
2%
2,591
254
250,818
Mini
Average CO2
emissions g/km
Average price
It is assumed that the CO2 emissions from new cars that will enter the fleet
from year 2001 and onwards are reduced by 2% annually. Based on historical
data, this order-of-magnitude is assessed to properly reflect the technological
progress in regard to energy efficiency. As can be seen from Table 5.4, this order-of-magnitude is a reasonable reflection of past developments. The table is
reproduced from VTI report 386, table 8.
Table 5.4 Annual rates of increase in fuel effectiveness
Year
1.3%
2.0%
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
1980
1984
1988
1990
1992
5.3
Yearly increase in effectiveness
Scrapping
The data sources for the scrapping module are described in section 4.3.
64
5.4
Available data
Vehicle fleet
Vägverket has supplied data on the total fleet of cars in Sweden. The data
disregards cars that are not driving on the roads on a regular basis. The data set,
which comprises 4,057,244 cars, is from September 2001. It includes a host of
different variables of which the most important are:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Age of the car (vintage)
Fabricate
Model
Fuel type (petrol or diesel)
Effect (motor size)
Weight
Length
However, the set of data does not contain information on emissions and on the
engine size. Consequently, estimations are necessary to provide such data.
Approach
5.4.1 Estimation of CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions were estimated by applying a model from VTI.10 This model
provides estimates on the CO2 emissions by using the following car characteristics to explain CO2 emissions:
•
•
•
•
•
Weight
Motor effect/weight
Dummy for automatic gear
Vintage
Model
The model, however, needs various extensions. It is based on data from the
1980s and up to 1992, and with a linear extrapolation from 1992 and onwards.
The necessary extensions differ for petrol and diesel cars.
Amendments of
relevance to petrol
cars
The CO2 emissions for petrol cars that are calculated in the VTI model are
amended for two reasons:
•
•
The model is based on a US driving cycle
The model does not capture the introduction of catalysts in petrol cars from
the late 1980s
The first shortcoming, the change from a US driving cycle to a European driving cycle, necessitates that the calculated amount of CO2 per km is multiplied
by a factor of between 5% and 10%. The exact factor would depend on the car
type. However, no detailed knowledge is available on the specific factor that
would apply to the various car types.
10
VTI report 386: “Rimliga mål för genomsnittlig bränsleförbrukning för nya personbilar.
Written by Henrik Jönsson (1993).
65
The second shortcoming is that catalytic converters were introduced from
around 1987. Catalytic converters reduce the energy efficiency and consequently, they lead to higher emissions of CO2. This effect is not captured by the
extrapolation. Consequently, the emissions become underestimated. In the extended model the effect from catalysts has been introduced to new cars gradually, with 20% in 1987, 80% in 1988 and 100% from 1989.
Motivated in these two shortcomings, the estimated CO2 emissions have been
calibrated to fit the actual CO2 emissions for petrol cars by adding 20% to the
CO2 emissions from the VTI model (before 1987 only by 10% since catalysts
were not introduced before 1987). The resulting CO2 emissions over time are
shown in Figure 5.1.
Figure 5.1 Calculated CO2 emissions from petrol cars, 1970 to 2001
320
g CO2 per km
300
280
260
240
220
01
99
20
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75
19
73
19
19
19
71
200
The introduction of catalysts causes a small upwards shift in the level of CO2
emissions around 1987-1990. From Vägverket, Environmental Report 2000, it
is however known that the CO2 emissions were actually stable from 1987 to
1990. This shortcoming from comparing the extended model with the actual
state of affairs gives rise to a small inaccuracy. It is however not important for
the overall results of the model.
The reason why the emissions proved to be stable in the period 1987-1990 is
that cars became significantly heavier in this period. Heavier cars are less energy effective than lighter ones and consequently, this effect outbalanced the
effect from the trend of 2% annual improvements in energy efficiency. Since
1997 the trend has again been increased efficiency along the historical trend.
66
Amendments of
relevance to diesel
cars
The CO2 emissions for diesel cars calculated in the VTI model are amended for
the following reasons
•
•
•
The model is based on a US driving cycle (like for petrol cars)
The model does not provide for a split between diesel and petrol cars
Technological development for diesel cars has recently flourished
The change in the driving cycle has the same impact on diesel cars as on petrol
cars, cf. above.
The VTI model is estimated across both petrol and diesel cars. However, there
were very few diesel cars in Sweden in the 1980s. Consequently, the determination of the parameters becomes highly dominated by petrol cars. Generally,
diesel cars have 10% lower CO2 emissions than petrol cars.
In recent years, there has been a surge in the technology for diesel cars with the
introduction of the TDI technology (for some models called HDI). Cars with
this new technology have much lower CO2 emissions than older diesel cars
without TDI. The new technology entered the market around 1997 and is
gradually becoming more outspread. The TDI technology has been phased in
from 1997 with the following shares.
Table 5.5 TDI share in Diesel cars
Year
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
TDI share
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Given the changes described above, the calculated CO2 emissions evolve over
time as shown in Figure 5.2.
67
Figure 5.2 Calculated CO2 emissions from diesel cars, 1970 to 2001
380
360
g CO2 per km
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
Validity of calculated CO2 emissions
Approach
01
99
20
97
19
95
19
93
19
91
19
89
19
87
19
85
19
83
19
81
19
79
19
77
19
75
19
73
19
19
19
71
180
The above estimations of CO2 emissions are assessed to be valid and sufficiently accurate for the purposes of this study. The VTI model probably estimates CO2 emissions from cars that entered the fleet before 1992 quite accurately. CO2 emissions from new cars are estimated in the Car Choice Module,
which provides the specific emission level for the specific car. For the intermediate period 1992-2000 the applied corrections result in a perfect match for the
year 2000 (on average) and probably a very good fit for the remaining years.
5.4.2 Estimation of engine size
The engine size is not included in the data set from Vägverket either. It has
therefore been estimated in an OLS regression model. The model weights each
group of explanatory variables by the number of cars in each group. The explanatory variables are the following:
•
•
•
•
•
weight (“tjänstevikt”)
motor effect
length
g CO2 per km
a dummy to indicate whether the car is Swedish
In the model set-up, the engine size is grouped into one of three groups, cf.
Table 5.6.
Table 5.6 Number of cars in each engine size group, diesel and petrol
Engine Size
<1500 ccm
1500-2000 ccm
>2000 ccm
Total
Petrol
576,042
1,156,305
2,139,169
3,871,516
Diesel
502
17,727
167,499
185,728
68
The table shows that the cars in Sweden are generally quite large and that the
diesel cars are relatively larger than petrol cars.
5.5
Socio-economics of car buyers
This section describes the socio-economic set of data that has been applied for
the car choice model calculations.
Approach
The car choice model requires socio-economic data for car purchasers. Such
data are not directly available for Sweden. To set up an approximate data set for
car purchasers the study combines the socio-economic data for Sweden with car
purchase ratios from Denmark, and takes into account the larger number of cars
per inhabitants in Sweden and the higher company car share in Sweden. The
method is explained stepwise below.
Source
The main source for the socio-economic data is a database, which contains
information for all individuals aged 17 years or more11. The database is constructed based on data material from SCB.
The information provided in this database covers:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
11
Municipality
Family ID number
Year of birth
Sex
Car ownership
Personal income
Family income
Family status
Number of children
See "Modeller och prognoser för regionalt bilinnehav i Sverige" Pontus Matstoms, VTI
for a more detailed description of the database.
69
For the purpose of this study, the families in the above database have been aggregated into the following dimensions:
Table 5.7 Overview of the socio-economic dimensions of the car choice model
Feature
Dimensions
Family type
Single
Couple
Children
No children
One or more children
Urbanisation
Rural municipalities
All other municipalities
Net family yearly income
Low income (below 151,800 SEK)
Medium income (between 151,800 and 453,200 SEK)
High income (above 453,200 SEK)
Based on the above data set one can set up the following socio-economics table
for the total population of families in Sweden.
Table 5.8 Socio-economics for Sweden. Total population (Families)
Family type/income group
Single No children Urban
Low
Medium
High
Total
1,096,937
469,330
5,885
1,572,152
74,916
139,390
947
215,253
123,511
45,172
357
169,040
10,553
18,374
71
28,998
Couple No children Urban
404,017
210,080
14,020
628,117
Couple Children Urban
225,671
354,581
17,416
597,668
Couple No children Rural
58,256
24,325
960
83,541
Couple Children Rural
39,192
47,665
1,180
88,037
2,033,053
1,308,917
40,836
3,382,806
Single Children Urban
Single No children Rural
Single Children Rural
Families total
The proportion of the total population that purchase a car in a given year is calculated based on similar data for Denmark. Furthermore, the proportion is adjusted for differences between Denmark and Sweden as regards the proportion
of company car purchases and the total number of cars per family. This is illustrated below.
Distribution of sales
using Danish purchase ratios
Firstly, we calculate the expected distribution using the Danish car purchase
ratios. This calculation would result in the following table.
70
Table 5.9 Socio-economics for Sweden, car buyers, uncorrected
Medium
High
13,895.70
22,856.35
1,049.84
37,802
949.02
6,788.29
168.94
7,906
1,564.60
2,199.87
63.69
3,828
133.68
894.81
12.67
1,041
27,975.08
36,346.94
3,805.59
68,128
15,625.99
61,347.74
4,727.40
81,701
4,331.86
3,686.22
260.82
8,279
2,914.28
7,223.18
320.59
10,458
67,390
141,343
10,410
219,143
Total car purchase
Relatively more cars
in Sweden than in
Denmark
Low
Total
Next, there are more cars per person in Sweden relative to Denmark (355 per
1000 inhabitants in Denmark and 428 per 1000 inhabitants in Sweden). This
means that more cars are purchased in Sweden compared to Denmark. Taking
into account that there were 8,859,429 inhabitants in Sweden in 1999 and that
the average lifetime for the cars is approximately 15.8 years, this implies an
additional 40,933 car purchases per year compared to the above table.12 It is
assumed that it is solely the medium and high-income groups that purchase
these additional 40,933 cars. Thus, the correction only affects the number of car
purchases of these two groups. The adjustment is done in proportion to the
number of households in these two groups. Thus, if the high-income group constitutes 10% of medium and high-income groups, then the group is allocated
10% of the additional car purchases.
The resulting car purchases corrected for the difference in the number of cars
per family between Sweden and Denmark are shown in Table 5.10.
12
Calculated as 8,859,429/1,000*(428-355)/15.8 = 40,933
71
Table 5.10 Socio-economics for Swedish car buyers, corrected for number of cars per
family
Low
High
Total
13,896
29,021
1,333
44,250
949
8,619
215
9,783
1,565
2,793
81
4,439
134
1,136
16
1,286
27,975
46,151
4,832
78,958
15,626
77,895
6,003
99,524
4,332
4,681
331
9,344
2,914
9,172
407
12,493
67,390
179,468
13,217
260,076
Total car purchase
Company cars are
more frequent in
Sweden
Medium
Company cars share constitute 50% of the car purchases in Sweden compared
to only 27% in Denmark. This means that private families purchase relatively
fewer cars in Sweden compared to Denmark. Simply applying the Danish car
purchase share to Sweden would therefore result in an overestimation of private
cars in Sweden.
The total number of car purchases in Sweden was 354,64913 in 2000. Consequently, the overestimation amounts to 354,649 * (50% - 27%) = -82,751 cars
per year. It is expected that company cars are only relevant to the medium and
high-income groups. Similarly to the above adjustment for the number of cars,
the adjustments here is also done proportionate to the number of households in
these two income groups. Table 5.11 shows the socio-economic data applied in
the model calculations.
Table 5.11 Socio-economics for Swedish car buyers corrected for company cars and
number of cars per family
Low
Medium
High
Total
13,896
16,558
761
31,214
949
4,918
122
5,989
1,565
1,594
46
3,204
134
648
9
791
27,975
26,331
2,757
57,063
15,626
44,442
3,425
63,493
4,332
2,670
189
7,191
2,914
5,233
232
8,379
67,390
102,393
7,541
177,325
Total car purchase
13
Source: SIKA, Statistiska Meddelenden SSM 01:1
72
5.6
Socio-economics assessment
5.6.1 Data on urban and rural population
Data on urbanisation are the same as described in section 5.5, i.e. the source is
Statistics of Sweden (SCB).
5.6.2 Employment
The necessary data to estimate the employment effects from the scenarios were
obtained from a range of sources. Data on car manufacturing and derived industries have been obtained from SCB (input-output tables for 1998). This information was used to identify the most important related industries. Information
supplied by an abstract from "Bilismen i Sverige 2000" (Swedish National
Road and Transport Research Institute) was used. This information assisted to
assess the relative distribution of sales between the various types of vehicles
(passenger cars and heavy vehicles), to assess the export share, and to estimate
the proportion of the production that is effectuated in the Netherlands. Online
data from SCB provided employment data. Information from the Statistical
Yearbook of Sweden 2001 was used to assess the amount and distribution of
vehicles serviced by the Swedish car sales and car repair and maintenance sectors, and to get employment data and overall economic data for the Swedish
economy.
5.7
Three additional effects from taxation
that are external to
the model
Some effects are not included directly in the model since that would be by far
too cumbersome and very time consuming. Instead, the calculations make use
of existing studies that offer information on aspects needed to supplement the
modules in the model framework. In particular, we include three additional effects:
•
•
•
Rebound effect
Elasticities
Rebound effect
Changes in the size of the car fleet (number of cars) as a result of a price
increase
Changes in scrapping (number of cars) as a result of a price increase
People choose to drive longer distances when the price per km decreases. This
effect is taken account of by the introduction of a measure of this price elasticity. The elasticity reveals how much the driven distance changes when the price
per kilometre changes, e.g. as a consequence of more energy effective cars. Johansson and Schipper state an elasticity of –0.2.14 This estimate, which we apply in the tax scenarios, is based on panel regressions, and the authors’ knowledge about limitations in the data material and statistical methods as well as
experience. The estimate of –0.2 is a long run elasticity estimate.
14
See Oluf Johansson and Lee Schipper (1997) “Measuring the long-run fuel demand of
cars”, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, September, pp. 237-252.
73
Another possible implication of a reduced number of cars in the fleet is that the
annual distance driven per car is likely to increase. Thus, if the price increase
that results from a registration tax gives rise to a reduced number of cars, it is
likely that the annual distance driven per car will increase. The reason is that
the marginal car owner (who chooses not to remain a car owner) has lower utility out of the car compared to car owners who are not marginal.15 The model
does not capture this possible effect on mileage, and hence on total emissions.
Price elasticities
The two price elasticities, which supplement the modules of the model
approach are directly related to the price increase that result from the introduction of a registration tax. Car owners will keep their old cars for longer, because
the opportunity costs of buying a new car increase. The price increase will
cause the number of cars in the car fleet to decline. Consequently, the sales of
new cars will decrease more than scrapping to more than outweigh the decline
in the latter, and hence to provide for the resulting overall decline of the car
fleet.
The price elasticity in the scrapping model is obtained by simulating the DETR
model, cf. section 4.3.2. The elasticity varies across age and engine size and
fuel type.
The long run price elasticity for car ownership determines, as described above,
the volume of car sales. This price elasticity is set to 0.6. Thus, a price increase
by 10% will imply a reduction of the car fleet by 6% in the long run. The value
of 0.6 is obtained from consulting several international studies for various
countries as well as for Sweden.16
Long run effects
As described, price increases will lead to decreases of the car fleet. In turn, this
will have implications for among other things the emissions of the car fleet.
Consequently, it is important to consider the concept of the "long run", as the
price elasticities apply to the long termed perspective. In other words: “How
long is the long run”?
In this case there are two dimensions that determine the long run:
•
•
Humans life cycle
The life cycle of human beings
The life cycle of cars
Some car owners may recently have bought a house in a rural area with the
intention of living there for many years, say 30-40 years. The introduction of a
registration tax could in principle mean that they would have chosen to live in
another area where they could do without a car had they known about the registration tax. However, they will not change their decision as regards settlement.
15
E.g. families with two cars may choose to sell car number two – and this will increase the
mileage of car number one for that family.
16
For Sweden, see VTI Report 301 (1986): “Personbilsinnehavet i Sverige 1950-2010” by
J.O Jansson, P. Cardebring and O. Junghard.
74
For this reason, it can be argued that the entire long run effect is fully phased in
after 30-40 years.17
Cars life cycle
However, a large proportion of the effect will depend on car owners that will
choose not to be car owners when their current car is scrapped and they are
faced with the new and higher tariffs. Hence, much of the long run effect is
phased in the first years following a price increase (registration tax), cf. Figure
5.3.
Figure 5.3 Phase in of the effect from an increase in car price as a result of a registration tax
4200000
4100000
4000000
3900000
Initial
3800000
RegTax
3700000
3600000
3500000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
In the analyses, we thus assume that half of the effect is phased in after 7 years,
while the whole effect is phased in after 30 years.
Sensitivity analysis
All elasticities are subject to some uncertainty. Thorough sensitivity analyses
serve to investigate the robustness of the calculations against these uncertainties.
Method
Basically, each sensitivity analysis consists of comparing the results of an
alternative model run, which includes the revised elasticity, with the original
results of the registration tax scenario.
17
The very last part is phased in after around 40 years but the vast majority is phased in
after 30 years.
75
The following sensitivity analyses constitute part of the study.
•
•
•
The price elasticity for the size of the car fleet lowered from –0.6 to –0.35
The phase in of the price elasticity of the size of the car fleet is speeded up
so that half of the effect is introduced after 4 years instead of 7 years. The
period of 30-40 years for total phase remains unaltered.
The price elasticity of scrapping is reduced to 50% of the original values.
As regards the former of the three, the selected alternative value of the price
elasticity (-0.35 instead of 0.6) is motivated in a comparative analysis of a
number of European countries. This analysis looked at the average car price
relative to average income levels and compared this to the number of cars per
inhabitant in the same countries. The analysis indicated the trend value is in the
range of -0.35. This is illustrated in Figure 5.4.
Figure 5.4 The relation between cars per 1000 inhabitants and car prices relative to
income for 12 European countries
6.6
ln(cars per 1000 inhabitants)
Issues covered
6.4
6.2
6
5.8
5.6
5.4
5.2
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
ln(car price/incom e)
Note: The countries included in the analysis are Denmark, Finland, France, Netherlands,
Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, germany, UK, Austria. The estimation is set up in a
log-log framework.
The results of all of the sensitivity analysis are discussed in section 7.3.
76
6
77
The tax scenarios
The analysis centres around two main tax scenarios. The first scenario involves
the introduction of a registration tax. The registration tax is partly value based
and partly differentiated according to the level of the CO2 emissions. The second scenario assumes that the existing circulation tax is redesigned so that it is
supplemented with a CO2 differentiated component in addition to its original
features.
Initial calculations
Prior to finally deciding on the types of scenarios to analyse and their specific
design, initial calculations were undertaken. These initial calculations served to
provide quantitative inputs into the task of designing scenarios that fulfil two
important pre-conditions, namely that there should be a reasonable expectation
that the chosen design of scenario should provide some CO2 reductions while at
the same time also being considered politically feasible. The initial calculations
were done by means of a preliminary version of the model, which was ready at
that time.
Reference level
A key feature of the applied method of design is the establishment of a
reference level. The reference level is defined so that any cars with emissions
above the reference is imposed with a CO2 tax payment whereas cars with
emissions below obtain a CO2 rebate. It is a condition however, that the total
value of the tax in question can never be negative. Thus, for the registration tax,
the sum of the value based part and the CO2 rebate (if relevant) should be positive or zero. The following section explains the reference level and its derivation.
6.1
Two possible tax
functions or combinations of the two
Reference level
Intrinsically, one can apply one of two tax functions or a combination of the
two.
The first function relates to the size of the car. The taxation level is consequently determined by the fuel efficiency for any given car size. This implies
that such a function would not allow for downsizing. In other words, there is a
strong focus on the fuel efficiency for a given car size. The reference will in
this case be different for different car sizes, and it will increase with car size.
The second function levies the CO2 tax independently of the size of the car.
This function will have a fixed reference level, which is set at 199 grams of
78
CO2 per km. Contrary to the above, this function will allows for 100%
downsizing, and will not take into account the fuel efficiency for a given car
size.
The first of the above functions was estimated by OLS regression. The regression took account of the fact that there are a different number of cars for each
size. Consequently, different weights were attached as a reflection of this.
The second tax function is simply given as a straight line, cf. Figure 6.1. The
figure shows both of the functions as well as the actual emissions for various
car sizes sold in Sweden. The scattered points in Figure 6.1 illustrate the latter.
Figure 6.1 Two functional forms with different weight on fuel efficiency.
600
CO2 per km
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Area (m2)
Initial calculations
In order to establish the reference level to be applied, a series of initial
calculations were undertaken. These initial calculations were undertaken separately for the registration tax scenario and for the circulation tax scenario. A
description of the most important results of these initial calculations is included
below.
6.1.1 Registration tax scenario - initial calculations
As mentioned above, the possible registration tax to be analysed should consist
of two parts, viz.:
•
•
A percentage of the value of the car (this part is independent of the car CO2
emissions)
A CO2 differentiation element
79
The CO2 differentiation element will be negative for cars with CO2 emissions
below the reference emission (rebate) and positive for cars with emissions
above the reference emission.
Scope of the initial
calculations
The initial calculations allowed for 50% downsizing. Furthermore, the initial
calculations looked at a large number of different tax scenarios. These different
scenarios had different combinations of the following:
•
•
•
The CO2 differentiation level (The calculations looked at a range of 440
SEK – 2,640 SEK per g CO2/km above reference)
The value based part of the registration tax (The calculations looked at a
range of 10% - 50% of car price)
The level of the fixed reference (The range of between 179 to 239 g
CO2/km, (the average of the two is 199 g CO2/km))
The results from these calculations are shown in the figure below.
Figure 6.2 Initial calculations, possible CO2 reductions across different scenarios
CO2 reductions
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Average registration tax per car (SEK)
These calculations clearly illustrate that the level of the registration tax sets an
upper limit for what can be achieved in terms of CO2 reductions. This is because the level of the registration tax limits the level of CO2 differentiation.
For example, the figure shows that a registration tax level of 40,000 SEK per
car sets an upper limit of the CO2 reductions of approx. of 3.5%.18
18
Comparing to countries with high registration tax it could be noted that Finland has a
registration tax of approx. 70,000 SEK, The Netherlands has a tax of 35,000 SEK and
Denmark has a registration tax of 141,000 SEK.
80
Tax levels of 11,000
SEK and 35,000
SEK respectively
Based on the above scan of the CO2 effect of different possible tax scenarios,
two scenarios were chosen for further analysis
•
•
Tax level of 11,000 SEK
Tax level of 35,000 SEK
The 11,000 SEK tax scenario consists of a value based part, which is 5% of the
car price, and a CO2 differentiation element, which is of 440 SEK per gram of
CO2/km. The reference level is defined to allow for 50% downsizing. The CO2
reductions from this scenario were calculated to be 1%, and the average registration tax was calculated to be 10,250 SEK per car.
The other tax scenario assumes a CO2 differentiation of 1,760 SEK per grams
CO2/km. Other features were similar to the first calculation. This scenario
would result in the new taxes shown in the following figure.
Figure 6.3 CO2 reductions from a tax level of 35,000 SEK
Registration tax
(SEK)
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
g CO2 per km
20% registration tax
20% registration tax plus CO2 differentiation
The CO2 reduction from this scenario would amount to 3.1%, and the average
registration tax would be approximately 35,000 SEK per car.
More progressive
CO2 differentiation
The above calculations are based on a fixed tax (440 SEK and 1,760 SEK per
gram of CO2 above the reference level respectively) per gram of CO2/km i.e. a
linear CO2 differentiation. A more progressive taxation scheme where the price
per gram of CO2 increases with the distance from the reference showed that it is
not possible to gain more CO2 reductions for a given level of registration tax by
applying a more progressive CO2 differentiation. Figure 6.4 shows the exponential function type that was applied to analyse this.
81
Figure 6.4 Progressive CO2 tax
Tax (SEK)
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-100,000
-150 -100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
g CO2 above (below) reference
The calculations varied the shape of the curve (the progressiveness) in order to
assess the additional gains to be achieved from enhancing the progressiveness.
The calculations showed that a progressive CO2 differentiation would not increase the CO2 reductions to be achieved given the acceptable level of registration tax, cf. Figure 6.5.
Figure 6.5 CO2 reductions when progressive CO2 differentiation is applied
CO2
reductions
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Average registration tax per car (SEK)
The reason why a progressive tax would not provide significant further reductions is likely to lie in a comparison of the way that the two resulting tax functions are positioned with regard to the CO2 emissions. The linear relation is
above the progressive relation for cars that are not extreme in their CO2 emissions, whereas the progressive one exceeds the linear one mainly in the extreme
82
cases. While the extreme cases causes substantial CO2 emissions at the individual level, i.e. for the individual car, the extreme cases cover a limited number of
cars. The extreme cases would be cars with emissions that emit more than 150
grams above the reference level, cf. Figure 6.4). This argument is further supported by the fact that the price elasticity for very expensive cars, which are
also often the cars high above the CO2 reference, is relatively low. This means
that the increased tax burden for these cars has relatively less impact on purchase behaviours.
Scope of the initial
calculations
6.1.2 Circulation tax - initial calculations
The initial calculations for the circulation tax scenario assume that the circulation tax is to consist of the existing tax plus a CO2 differentiation element. Furthermore, the circulation tax is restricted by the requirement that it should result
in non-negative values. In other words, while a CO2 rebate is allowed, the total
circulation tax should never become negative. This condition is similar to the
one applied for the registration tax scenario.
Figure 6.6 shows the CO2 reductions that would result from applying different
levels of CO2 differentiation (ranging from 9 to 90 SEK per g CO2/km above
the reference level). Similarly to the registration tax scenario, allowance is
made for 50% downsizing.
Figure 6.6 CO2 reductions from applying different levels of CO2 differentiation
CO2 reductions
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
SEK per g CO2 above reference
Figure 6.7 illustrates the tax change that would result from applying a CO2
differentiation of 44 SEK per g CO2/km above the reference.
83
Figure 6.7 Circulation tax with and without CO2 differentiation
Circulation tax
(SEK)
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
g CO2 per km
Existing circulation tax
Existing plus CO2 differentiation
Applying a CO2 differentiation of 44 SEK/gram above the reference level
would reduce the CO2 emissions by 3%.
6.1.3 Downsizing and lower tax limit
Inspired by some of the key features that underlie the approach taken in the
Netherlands in their investigations of how to introduce CO2 differentiation into
their tax scheme, the applied tax function attaches a weight of 25% to the horizontal tax function. This implies that 25% downsizing is permitted, and it
leaves 75% weight to the tax function, which relates the CO2 emissions to the
area of the car.19
19
The estimated OLS regression for petrol cars resulted in the following 2. order polynomial: CO2 per km = 199.42 – Area*31.27 + (Area)2 *4.04. For diesel cars the regression
analysis resulted in the following 2. order polynomial: CO2 per km = 968.46 –
Area*245.12 + (Area)2 *18.13.
84
Figure 6.8 Weighted functional form applied, Petrol Cars
600
CO2 per km
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Area (m2)
A separate but similar form is applied for diesel cars, were 25% downsizing
also is allowed.
As mentioned the taxes are not allowed to become negative (in which case they
would be subsidies). This condition applies to all cars, also those with extremely low emissions. However, the CO2 differentiation part of the tax may
become negative (assume the form of a rebate) and in that way reduce the nonCO2 differentiated part of the tax, cf. Figure 6.9.
Figure 6.9 Truncated tax structure (the “no-subsidy”-characteristic)
Tax
Area
85
6.2
The two main scenarios
The section describes the tax functions that were ultimately decided upon for
the two tax scenarios to be analysed.
6.2.1 Reference level calculation
The reference CO2 level is calculated according to the following formula:
CO2Reference = ADS * C0 + (1-ADS) * (C1 + C2 * A + C3 * A2)
Where ADS is a parameter to control the level of downsizing. The value of
ADS is set to 0.25.
A is the area of the car (length * width in meter)
The parameters for petrol cars and diesel cars are shown below.
Table 6.1 Parameters in CO2 reference calculations
Parameter
C0
C1
C2
C3
Value for petrol cars
199.7
199.4185
-31.2686
4.04179
Value for diesel cars
174.7
968.4628
-245.127
18.1254
Based on the CO2 reference and the actual CO2 emissions of the car the CO2
differentiation element is calculated as follows:
CO2 differentiation tax =
(Actual CO2 per km - CO2Reference) * SEK per g CO2
6.2.2 Registration tax scenario
The initial calculations showed that in order to avoid upsizing of the car fleet it
was necessary to allow for a certain degree of downsizing. Hence, it was decided to allow for 25% downsizing as mentioned in the preceding paragraph.
Upsizing occurred in the initial calculations because of the fact that all cars
were to pay a tax, including the small and energy effective ones. The latter
could be imposed a tax of zero, but not less than that. Consequently, the small
and fuel efficient cars actually experienced the highest price increase in relative
terms.
The design of the registration tax in this scenario consists of two elements as
shown below:
86
Table 6.2 Design of the registration tax in the registration tax scenario
Value based element
10% of the value of the car (corresponds to
an average taxation level of 20,000 SEK/car
CO2 differentiated element
880 SEK per gram of CO2 above the reference level and negative below the level.
The negative value of the CO2 tax can never more than outweigh the value-based part. In
other words, the registration tax can never be negative.
The registration tax is levied separately for petrol and diesel cars (different reference levels
are applied).
6.2.3 Circulation tax
The circulation tax to be applied in the circulation tax scenario is defined as the
current tax plus a CO2 differentiated element. The features of the existing circulation tax are shown in Table 5.1. In addition to this, the scenario assumes a
CO2 differentiated element of 44 SEK per g CO2 above the reference level, and
counted as a negative value (rebate) below the reference level. Similarly to the
registration tax, the CO2 tax may thus reduce the non-CO2-differentiated part of
the circulation tax; i.e. it may work as a subsidy and the average total tax burden and average total tax revenue remains constant.
Also in this case, a separate circulation tax is levied for diesel and petrol cars.
87
7
Results of the scenarios
7.1
Base scenario and the registration tax scenario
The main features of the registration tax in this scenario are shown in Table 6.2.
7.1.1 New car sales
The results of the model calculations for sales of new cars are provided in
Table 7.1.
Table 7.1 Results for new car registrations, Base and Registration tax scenario
Outputs
Base calculation
New registration
tax
198.1
195.3
96,237
115,227
3.70
3.66
6.5%
6.5%
30.5%
29.2%
-
20,161
1,566
1,558
145,825
143,854
-
20,161
24,780
24,543
71,456
70,523
Average size
Average Circulation tax (SEK per car per year)
Registration tax
Base and scenario
calculations
The table shows the results both from the base scenario and from the registration tax scenario. The base scenario models the results under the current tax
structure, i.e. with no registration tax and with the existing circulation tax.
88
The introduction of a registration tax is seen to reduce the average CO2
emissions from new cars by 1.4%, which is equivalent to 2.8 g CO2/km/car.
Part of this reduction comes about through a smaller size of the new cars. The
average size decreases from 3.70 to 3.66. Related to this downsizing effect, the
share of Swedish cars in the sales of new cars decreases from 30.5% to 29.2%.
Swedish cars tend to be larger than the average car. A decline in the total number of new cars sold (not shown in Table 7.1, but in Table 7.4) further accentuates this drop.
The average registration tax, which is set to 20,000 SEK, results in an increase
in the average life time tax revenue per car of around 20%.
7.1.2 Scrapping
The age distribution of the Swedish car fleet is shown in Figure 7.1. The figure
illustrates how business cycles among other factors have effected the age distribution. Consequently, the car fleet has a bulk of 1-3 year old cars and of 12-14
year old cars.
Figure 7.1 Age distribution of the Swedish car fleet, September 2001
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0.1
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0
Frequency
Results
Age
all
se
not se
Note: “se” signifies “Swedish cars”
This pattern that characterises the Swedish car fleet’s age distribution is also
reflected in the level of scrapping over time, cf. Figure 7.2. This figure also
shows that the level of scrapping is higher in the base scenario than in the registration tax scenario. The reason is that the registration tax causes the number of
cars to decline. This is further discussed in the next section.
89
Figure 7.2 Scrapping over time, Implementation year 2001
Number of scrapped cars
300000
250000
200000
Reg tax
150000
Base
100000
50000
97
89
81
73
65
57
49
41
33
25
17
9
1
0
Years from implementation
Results from base
calculation and from
scenario calculation
7.1.3 Total car fleet
The results for the total car fleet are given in Table 7.2, Table 7.3, and Table
7.4. The tables show the results from the base scenario, the registration tax scenario, and the difference between the two scenarios. The tables present the results over the different time spans, viz. 1, 5, 10 and 20 years after the introduction of a registration tax, which is first introduced into the calculations in 2001.
In Table 7.2 the average age can be seen to fluctuate over time. These fluctuations are caused by the age distribution of the Swedish car fleet, cf. Figure 7.1.
Average emissions
The most striking result when comparing the base scenario and the registration
tax scenario (i.e. Table 7.4) is that the average CO2 emissions/car are constant
over time. Although the average CO2 emissions for new cars decrease by 2.8
gram of CO2 per km (cf. Table 7.1), this effect is counteracted by an increase in
the average age of the car fleet of about half a year. The latter involves an increase in the average CO2 emissions and consequently, the net effect on average CO2 emissions is virtually zero. Therefore, there is no rebound effect either.
Total emissions
However, the total number of cars in the car fleet declines as a result of the
price increase caused by the introduction of the registration tax. Therefore, the
total CO2 emissions from the car fleet also declines.
Other effects
From the tables, it can also be seen that the proportion of Swedish cars (i.e.
Volvo and Saab) in the car fleet is reduced from 30.2% to 29.3% (year 20). The
drop in the total car fleet amplifies the implications of this decline. The cars
also tend to be smaller than in the base scenario. This can be seen to apply both
to the sales of new cars per se, and also to the total car fleet. With regard to the
latter, both the average length and the average weight of the cars decrease. The
longer the time span the larger this decrease.
90
The registration tax will lead to a decline in the number of new cars sold. The
size of this effect varies from a drop in the order of 7% and up to 20%. The
variation is caused by the age distribution of the Swedish car fleet, which is
shaped by business cycles.
Table 7.2 Base scenario, total car fleet (1, 5, 10 and 20 years)
BASE
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
1
4,153,155
205,154
235
11,994,305
8.9
451
1,340
1,365,726
32.9%
198,069
4.8%
5
10
4,153,155
4,153,156
226,536
195,659
221
203
11,364,228
10,458,465
9.0
9.4
449
447
1,375
1,402
1,289,483
1,248,816
31.0%
30.1%
236,867
276,989
5.7%
6.7%
20
4,153,152
240,064
162
8,325,037
9.2
442
1,408
1,255,375
30.2%
270,625
6.5%
Table 7.3 Registration tax scenario results, total car fleet (1, 5, 10 and 20 years)
Reg. tax scenario
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
1
4,128,309
163,167
235
11,939,719
9.1
451
1,338
1,357,806
32.9%
195,844
4.7%
5
10
4,038,866
3,969,853
198,023
182,333
223
204
11,109,933
10,046,108
9.5
10.0
449
447
1,368
1,393
1,248,440
1,177,506
30.9%
29.7%
226,495
261,925
5.6%
6.6%
20
3,900,058
213,160
161
7,811,640
9.7
441
1,397
1,142,127
29.3%
252,685
6.5%
Table 7.4 Change from registration tax, total car fleet (1, 5, 10 and 20 years)
Change
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
7.2
1
-24,846
-20.47%
0.37
-43,669
0.15
0.01
-1.82
-7,920
0.01%
-2,225
-0.03%
5
10
-114,289
-183,303
-12.59%
-6.81%
1.27
1.07
-203,436
-329,885
0.53
0.60
-0.07
-0.28
-6.80
-8.73
-41,043
-71,310
-0.14%
-0.41%
-10,372
-15,064
-0.10%
-0.07%
20
-253,094
-11.21%
-0.10
-410,717
0.53
-0.92
-10.79
-113,248
-0.94%
-17,940
-0.04%
Base scenario and circulation tax scenario
The design of the circulation tax in the circulation tax scenario is described in
section 6.2.3.
91
Results
7.2.1 New car sales
The average CO2 emissions per car for new cars decrease by almost 3% as a
result of the redesign of the circulation tax. There are two causes for this effect.
First, the proportion of diesel cars increases as a result of the tax change. However, the increase is quite small. Second, the average size of the new cars is reduced, and this is the major reason. As a consequence of these changes the proportion of Swedish cars in the total sales of new cars drop from 30.5% to
29.5%.
The average circulation tax decreases. This is a result of the redesign of the tax
and the behavioural changes this redesign brings about.
Hence, the reduction in the average CO2 emissions comes solely from the introduction of a CO2 differentiated element into the circulation tax, and not from
an increase in the tax level.
Table 7.5 Results for new car registrations, Base and Circulation tax scenario
Outputs
Base calculation
New circulation
tax
198.1
192.8
96,237
92,497
3.70
3.65
6.5%
6.6%
30.5%
29.5%
-
-
1,566
1,443
145,825
142,120
-
-
24,780
22,766
71,456
69,731
Average size
Average Circulation tax (SEK per car per year)
Registration tax
Results
7.2.2 Total car fleet
The effect on the total car fleet from the introduction of a CO2 differentiated
element into the existing circulation tax is a drop in the total CO2 emissions
from the car fleet. The drop is in the order of 0.5% in the first year, and it increases to around 2% in year 20, cf. Table 7.2, Table 7.6 and Table 7.7.20 This
reduction stems from a decrease in the average CO2 emissions – an effect,
20
60,000 out of 12 mio in year 1 and 160,000 out of 8,3 mio in year 20.
92
which is stronger the longer the time span. This is because this effect is provided solely through the effect from the tax on the sales of new cars.
No effect on scrapping and car fleet
The absolute level of the annual circulation tax remains unaltered in this scenario. Therefore, there is no change in the number of cars, as there is no general
price increase. The same goes for the average age of cars. The proportion of
diesel cars in the car fleet remains virtually unaffected while the proportion of
Swedish cars is reduced from 30.5% to 29.4% (in year 20).
Table 7.6 Circulation tax scenario results, total car fleet (1, 5, 10 and 20 years)
Circ. tax scenario
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
1
4,153,156
205,154
234
11,981,403
8.9
451
1,339
1,363,794
32.8%
198,220
4.8%
5
10
4,153,155
4,153,156
226,536
195,659
220
200
11,297,796
10,335,992
9.0
9.4
449
446
1,372
1,396
1,279,171
1,228,992
30.8%
29.6%
237,672
278,535
5.7%
6.7%
20
4,153,154
240,064
158
8,126,837
9.2
441
1,396
1,219,019
29.4%
273,461
6.6%
Table 7.7 Change from circulation tax, total car fleet (1, 5, 10 and 20 years)
Change
1
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
7.3
Types of results
1
0.00%
-0.26
-10,322
0.00
-0.06
-0.60
-1,932
-0.05%
151
0.00%
5
10
0
0
0.00%
0.00%
-1.31
-2.41
-53,146
-97,978
0.00
0.00
-0.34
-0.65
-3.21
-6.17
-10,312
-19,824
-0.25%
-0.48%
805
1,547
0.02%
0.04%
20
2
0.00%
-3.90
-158,560
0.00
-1.20
-11.31
-36,356
-0.88%
2,836
0.07%
Registration tax scenario - Sensitivity Analysis
This section investigates the implications for the above results of changing a
number of underlying key assumptions. Each of the analyses presented in this
section reports the registration tax scenario results that would apply under the
changed assumptions in terms of comparing these results to the base scenario
results. Annex B provides he specific results from the registration tax scenario
under the changed assumptions. Sensitivity analyses are only carried out for the
registration tax scenario. The registration tax scenario has an effect on scrapping, on the size of the car fleet and the number of new cars sold, whereas the
circulation tax only has implications for the composition of the sales and the
fleet, and not for the absolute values. Sensitivity analyses are therefore mainly
of relevance to the registration tax scenario.
93
Set-up
7.3.1 CO2 differentiation of 1,760 SEK per g CO2
Here, the tax per gram of CO2 is assumed to be 1,760 SEK instead of the
original 880 SEK. Thus, the sensitivity analyses here involve a doubling of the
CO2 tax, i.e. the CO2 differentiation. The value-based part of the tax is maintained at the original 10%. The latter implies that the average tax level remains
(virtually) unaffected, and consequently, the number of cars that result from
this alternative formulation of the registration tax scenario remains quite similar
to the number of cars that resulted from the original registration tax scenario.
Table 7.8 Change from base scenario when CO2 differentiation is 1,760 SEK / g CO2
Change
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
Results
1
-25,206
-20.78%
0.35
-45,135
0.15
0.01
-1.86
-8,171
0.00%
-2,248
-0.03%
5
10
-116,057
-186,263
-12.80%
-6.94%
1.17
0.86
-211,090
-343,864
0.54
0.61
-0.08
-0.30
-7.01
-9.09
-42,449
-74,015
-0.16%
-0.45%
-10,483
-15,205
-0.10%
-0.07%
20
-257,270
-11.39%
-0.48
-432,078
0.54
-0.96
-11.39
-118,151
-1.04%
-18,040
-0.03%
The doubling of the CO2 differentiation has only very little impact on the
average CO2 emissions compared to the results of the original registration tax
scenario. The reason for this insensitivity is the requirement that the total registration tax to be paid by an individual car purchaser can never be negative.
Consequently, the doubling of the CO2 differentiation implies that the lower
level becomes binding more often than before (i.e. the cases become more frequent, where the actual calculation of the tax would result in a negative one, but
this requirement means that it is set at zero instead).21
Consequently, this sensitivity analysis shows that either an increase in the tax
burden (i.e. a value-based tax of more than 10%) or a loosening of the constraint that the registration tax may never become negative would be required to
provide more CO2 reductions from the registration tax.
Motivation
7.3.2 Level of registration tax
The preceding paragraph illustrated the relatively little effect that the price of
CO2 emissions per gram (the unit tax) has on the total emissions. This (lack of)
effect is further illustrated in Figure 7.3.
21
Increasing the price per g CO2 to 2,640 (200% increase from main scenario) does not
have more impact on average CO2 emissions than increasing by 100%.
94
Reduction in total CO2 emissions
Figure 7.3 Reduction in total CO2 emissions: 880 SEK (main scenario) per g CO2 and
“extra” effect from 1,760 SEK per g CO2
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1
5
10
20
Time horizon
880 SEK
Extra reduction for 1,760 SEK
Note: For a time horizon of 1 year the effect from 1,760 SEK is lower (because the immediate age effect is higher when the price is higher). This is not shown in the figure.
The reason for the limited effect of increasing the price of emissions (the unit
tax) is similar to the reason for the limited effect of the original registration tax
scenario. There is namely, in the case of the registration tax a trade off between
the effects on average CO2 emissions from the CO2 differentiation (via its impact on new car sales) on the one hand, and the effect on the average age of the
car fleet on the other hand. The latter results from the price increase that is
caused by the introduction of a registration tax.
Set-up
To explore this idea of this trade off further, the level of the value-based part of
the registration tax is varied in this sensitivity analysis. The original scenario
set the level at 10% of the value of the car. In addition to this level, these alternative scenario calculations set the level at three alternative levels, viz.: 5%,
15% and 20% of the value of the car. For each of these levels, including the
original level of 10%, the total effect on CO2 emissions is decomposed into
three effects. These three effects, which stem from
•
•
•
Results
The CO2 differentiation effect on the sales of new cars
The increase in the average age of the car fleet as a result of the more expensive cars
The decrease in the size of the car fleet as a result of the more expensive
cars
The results are shown for the 20-year time span in Table 7.9.
As can be seen, increasing the tax level leads to the expected further reductions
in CO2 emissions from new cars. This is due to the enhanced incentive to buy
more fuel efficient cars relative to a given size. However, the increasing the tax
level also involves increasing the price level. Consequently, the incentive to
95
keep the old cars for longer increases resulting in an increase in the average age
of the cars in the fleet. This effect actually crowds out the effect from the higher
tax level.
Furthermore, the increase of the car prices leads to a smaller car fleet, as cars
become more expensive than other consumer goods. The effect on the car fleet
is however independent from the fact that the above effects work in opposite
directions.
Table 7.9 Decomposition of the total effect on CO2 emissions, 20 years horizon
20 years horizon
CO2 diff. from new cars
Age
Number of cars
Total effect
Motivation
5%
-0.94%
0.67%
-2.89%
-3.15%
10%
-1.14%
1.12%
-4.40%
-4.41%
15%
-1.25%
1.74%
-6.09%
-5.60%
20%
-1.25%
2.57%
-7.88%
-6.56%
7.3.3 Different levels of downsizing
The original registration tax scenario set the allowed level of downsizing at
25%. Alternating this level will have no implications for the number of cars.
This number is determined solely by the price elasticity for the size of the car
fleet. Still, the level of downsizing has important implications for the types of
the new cars that will be sold. If allowance is made for a high level of downsizing, car buyers will be given a stronger incentive to buy smaller cars. Hence,
the level of the CO2 emissions will be reduced more than in the original scenario.
Figure 7.4 serves to illustrate this. (The details are presented in Annex B, Table
11.7).
The figure illustrates that the original level of 25% downsizing captures a
significant share of the potential effect. Figure 7.4 shows a steep curve in the
range of downsizing from 0% to 25%, and a less steep curve for higher levels
of downsizing.
The effect from the level of downsizing on the proportion of Swedish cars is
fairly limited, cf. Figure 7.5. This figure shows the effect from the registration
tax on the proportion of Swedish cars both for the circulation tax and the registration tax.
96
Figure 7.4 The relationship between average CO2 emission reductions from new car
registrations and the level of downsizing allowed, Registration tax
2.0%
1.8%
CO2 reductions
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Allow downsizing
Figure 7.5 Effects of downsizing on the share of Swedish manufactured cars - both
from a registration tax and a circulation tax
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Level of downsizing
Reg. tax
Results
Circ. tax
As can be seen, for the registration tax scenario, the level of downsizing has
very little implications for the proportion of Swedish cars, whereas the effect is
a little more pronounced in the case of a circulation tax. The reason for this is
that the effect from circulation tax comes solely from new cars, and this is also
where the effect from downsizing adheres. The effect from the registration tax
on the other hand is to a large extent attributable to the impact it has on the
number of cars in the fleet.
97
Motivation and setup
Results
7.3.4 Petrol and diesel merged in tax function estimation
The original scenario estimated the second order polynomial tax functions
separately for petrol and diesel cars respectively resulting in two different functions. In order to investigate the importance of this approach of separating the
two, an alternative estimation has been carried out where only one polynomial
is estimated for the entire car fleet. In other words, here petrol and diesel cars
are merged in the estimation.
Compared to the original scenario results, (Table 7.4), this alternative
calculation provides virtually identical results. This is in line with what could
be expected. The two original tax functions proved to be quite similar for the
relevant intervals (in terms of area of car). However, merging diesel and petrol
cars into one tax function results in a minor increase in the proportion of diesel
cars; an increase of 0.5% in the long run (20 years and more).
Table 7.10 Change from base scenario when petrol and diesel cars are merged in the
estimation of the tax function
Change
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
Set-up and results
1
-25,381
-20.93%
0.37
-43,692
0.15
0.01
-1.84
-8,141
0.00%
-1,299
0.00%
5
10
-116,914
-187,696
-12.91%
-7.01%
1.28
1.06
-203,246
-328,888
0.55
0.61
-0.07
-0.28
-6.88
-8.80
-42,279
-73,615
-0.15%
-0.43%
-5,133
-4,412
0.04%
0.20%
20
-259,287
-11.48%
-0.16
-407,557
0.55
-0.93
-10.76
-117,196
-1.00%
2,715
0.50%
7.3.5 The effect from the price increase on scrapping is halved
The smaller the price elasticity on scrapping, the smaller is the effect from the
assumed tax change on the average age of the cars in the fleet. This is illustrated in Table 7.11, which shows the results from the registration tax scenario
assuming that the elasticity of scrapping is halved compared to the original calculation. As can be seen, the average age is only reduced by 0.23 years compared to around 0.5 years in the original registration tax scenario. As a direct
consequence of this, the average CO2 emissions also decline in this calculation,
although the order-of-magnitude of the decline is limited. The reason why the
scenario however results in a decline in this calculation is that the decrease in
the emissions from the new cars now dominates the effect from cars becoming
older. The sales of new car decline less than originally because the scrap rate is
reduced less than in the original calculation. The rest of the effects are almost
unchanged, and the overall importance of the scrap price elasticity is generally
limited, albeit not entirely negligible.
98
Table 7.11 Change from base scenario when scrap price elasticity is halved
Change
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
Set-up
1
-25,977
-16.84%
0.26
-50,415
0.10
0.01
-1.32
-8,863
-0.01%
-2,002
-0.02%
5
10
-117,241
-185,680
-10.64%
-6.01%
0.81
0.41
-226,700
-359,206
0.36
0.38
-0.05
-0.28
-4.87
-6.43
-43,153
-72,852
-0.17%
-0.43%
-9,095
-13,597
-0.06%
-0.03%
20
-254,464
-9.32%
-1.14
-452,535
0.23
-0.95
-9.14
-111,468
-0.89%
-17,233
-0.02%
7.3.6 Phase in of price effect speeded up
Originally, it was assumed that half of the price elasticity of the size of the car
fleet was phased in during the first 7 years. Alternatively, it could be assumed
to take only 4 years before half of the effect was phased in. Such a shorter period of time for the first half of the elasticity can be expected to lead to larger
short-termed effects than in the original scenario. Indeed, this is also what happens. In fact, in the first year the effects almost doubled. The longer the time
span we look at, the less pronounced is the effect from changing this assumption of the original scenario. This is because the total effect is still introduced
over a 30-40 year time span.
Table 7.12 Change from base scenario when phase-in of price elasticity is speeded up
Change
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
Results
1
-46,408
-30.98%
0.59
-84,706
0.19
0.06
-2.14
-14,266
0.02%
-3,626
-0.03%
5
10
-184,516
-251,460
-15.40%
-5.50%
1.92
1.36
-333,112
-456,261
0.66
0.63
0.08
-0.17
-7.35
-8.84
-61,711
-91,369
-0.11%
-0.40%
-14,936
-19,493
-0.11%
-0.07%
20
-281,493
-12.86%
-0.31
-464,491
0.46
-0.91
-10.78
-121,442
-0.94%
-19,818
-0.04%
This result shows that the “phase-in-speed” of the elasticity can have
implications for the socio-economic consequences, since these may be more
important in the short term.
The key result of the registration tax scenario, namely that there is no effect on
the average CO2 emissions is not affected by changing the main scenario in this
manner, cf. Table 7.12.
Set-up
7.3.7 Price elasticity of –0.35
The registration tax scenario assumes a price elasticity of –0.6. This means that
an increase of the price of cars by 10% will lead to a decline in the size of the
99
car fleet will by 6%. When this elasticity is changed to –0.35, the decline in the
number of cars will be reduced compared to the original results. In fact, the
drop in the number of cars is almost halved.
Results
Over a 20-year time span the number of cars will decline by around 147,000
using the elasticity of -0.35, which compares to 253,000 when the elasticity was
–0.6.
This directly affects the total CO2 emissions. They drop proportionately less. In
this respect the size of this elasticity has very high importance for the models
result on the total car fleet.
The effects on the other variables are much smaller. The alternative price elasticity leads to a small decrease in the average age compared to the original scenario as a result of more new cars being bought under the alternative price elasticity.
Table 7.13 Change from base scenario when price elasticity is –0.35
Change
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
1
-14,708
-15.52%
0.26
-24,377
0.12
-0.02
-1.66
-4,937
0.00%
-1,566
-0.02%
5
10
-67,058
-106,948
-8.89%
-4.40%
0.82
0.57
-117,006
-195,412
0.45
0.51
-0.17
-0.39
-6.43
-8.61
-27,142
-48,838
-0.15%
-0.41%
-7,303
-10,102
-0.09%
-0.07%
20
-147,427
-8.27%
-0.17
-244,428
0.52
-0.94
-10.75
-82,276
-0.94%
-11,042
-0.04%
100
101
8
8.1
Private households
In order to assess the implication of the tax changes for private households the
households has been segmented according to family type, if they have children
or not and according to urbanisation.
The following table shows the families segmented in eight groups.
Table 8.1 Number of families
Family type
Urban
Rural
1,572,152
169,040
215,253
28,998
628,117
83,541
597,668
88,037
Rural has been defined as families living in the 25% municipalities with lowest population
density.
The average income varies considerable between different income groups.
Generally couples have higher income relative to single adult families. The
main reason for this naturally that the income for couples most often consists of
two incomes. Furthermore, it is worth noting that families living in rural areas
in general have lower income relative to people living in urban areas. Finally,
families with children have higher income relative to families without children.
Table 8.2 Average income (disposal income, 2000)
Family type
Urban
Rural
149,773
141,608
201,884
197,731
333,152
309,406
397,009
369,054
102
Table 8.3 Average car price initially
Family type
Urban
Rural
148,000
152,400
158,800
152,900
154,700
179,000
158,200
190,700
Families in rural areas on average buy more expensive cars relative to families
living in urban areas. Since the average income is lower in rural areas this
means that families living in rural areas are using significantly higher share of
the income for car purchase.
Finally, people in rural areas buy cars with higher CO2 emissions per km relative to people living in urban areas.
Table 8.4 Average CO2 emissions per km for new cars purchased by the families
Family type
Urban
Rural
186.1
192.6
189.1
193.1
193.5
203.4
194.4
205.5
8.1.1 Implications from the registration tax scenario
The following table shows how the tax burden of the new registration tax is
distributed among the families. Families in urban areas will experience a higher
tax burden relative to people living in urban areas.
Table 8.5 Average registration tax in tax scenario
Family type
Urban
Rural
14,467
17,380
16,183
18,207
16,210
21,666
17,107
24,473
103
Table 8.6 Tax share of average income
Family type
Urban
Rural
10%
12%
8%
9%
5%
7%
4%
7%
The tax burden shows how the households are affected by the tax changes in
financial terms. This measure of the impact however disregards the effects that
occur, because households adjust to the new taxes.
Tax increase effect
As already mentioned the registration tax consists of two elements. One
element is the value-based tax, which adds 10% to the car price. The effect
from this increase is close to proportional with the car price and will affect
households who buy expensive cars relatively more than to people who buy
cheaper cars.
The welfare effect from the increase in the tax level is equal to the general welfare loss (the triangle in standard welfare economics) plus the taxes that people
pay after they have adjusted to the new tax level. This loss is calculated for the
households in the table below.
Table 8.7 Welfare loss due to registration tax level increase.
Urban
17,939
20,067
20,100
21,213
Rural
21,551
22,577
26,865
30,346
The welfare losses shown in the above table clearly shows that an increase
(from zero) in the registration tax level will result in substantial re-distributions
of welfare in society, as car purchasers would suffer a substantial loss in welfare. This welfare loss will be in the order of 10-15% of the income. One
should note though that the welfare loss only occurs in the year of the purchase
of a new car.
CO2 differentiation
effect
The other element of the registration tax is the CO2 dependent element. Due to
this tax element, households who buy cars with small CO2 emissions will benefit from the CO2 differentiation element. On the other hand, households who
buy cars with high CO2 emissions will experience a loss in welfare. The following figure illustrates the situation for households who buy cars with high CO2
emissions.
104
Figure 8.1 Changes in consumer surplus due to tax increase
Car Price
C
Demand curve
B
P1
P0
Supply curve
D
A
Q1
Q0
Number of cars
Initially these people face the price P0 and demand the amount of Q0 cars. Their
consumer surplus amounts to the area of the triangle P0 A C. The introduction
of a CO2 differentiation into the registration tax will imply that these people
will experience a price increase. Having adjusting their demand to the new
price they will demand the quantity of Q1 cars to the price P1. Their new consumer surplus has now been reduced to the area of the triangle P1 B C. Consequently, these people will suffer a loss in welfare corresponding to the area P0 A
B P1.
One should note that for society as a whole, there will only be a welfare loss
corresponding to the area A B D, since the area P0 D B P1 is collected as taxes
and could be used (redistributed) to increase welfare elsewhere in the economy.
So for the society as a whole there will only be a welfare loss corresponding to
the area A B D. This area is the welfare loss that has been used in the cost benefit analysis to reflect the loss of welfare due to CO2 differentiation.
For the households buying cars with low CO2 emissions the situation is the opposite. These households face a decrease in the price and will therefore demand
more (small) cars. This situation is illustrated in the figure below.
105
Figure 8.2 Changes in consumer surplus due to tax increase
Car Price
C
Demand curve
B
P0
P1
E
D
A
Q0
Q1
Supply curve
Number of cars
Initially these people face the price P0 and demand the amount of Q0 cars. Their
consumer surplus amounts to the area of the triangle P0 B C. The introduction
of the CO2 differentiation element into the registration tax will imply that these
people experience a price decrease. Having adjusting their demand to the new
price they will demand the quantity of Q1 cars to the price P1 (= P0 - CO2 tax).
Their new consumer surplus will thus have increased to the area of the triangle
P1 A C. Consequently, these people experience a gain in welfare corresponding
to the area P1 A B P0.
One should note though that for society as a whole there will be a welfare loss,
which corresponds to the area A B D. The area P0 A E P1 is paid in tax rebates
and needs therefore to be collected elsewhere in the economy where it will consequently reduce welfare. So for the society as a whole there will be a welfare
loss corresponding to the area A E B. which is equal to the area A B D. This area
is the welfare loss that has been used in the cost benefit analysis to reflect the
loss of welfare due to CO2 differentiation.
The following table shows the welfare impact for the consumers. The net welfare effect is calculated as the welfare gain for the car purchasers who buy cars
with low CO2 emissions minus the loss of welfare for the car purchasers who
buy cars with high CO2 emissions. Note that this table only refers to the CO2
differentiation changes. The changes to the tax level are not considered here.
106
Table 8.8 Welfare effects from CO2 differentiation of the registration tax (SEK per car,
total lifetime)
Family type
Urban
Rural
-3618
-4896
-5919
-6249
-4813
-5249
-7687
-8813
The average effect for private households amounts to a loss in welfare of 5,100
SEK. By comparison, the net welfare effect related to company cars is calculated to be a loss of 6,100 SEK per car.
Thus, the new car purchasers will suffer a loss from the CO2 differentiation.
The loss is approximately 15% higher for families in rural areas compared to
families in urban areas and about 50% higher for households with children
compared to households without children.
8.1.2 Implications for the annual circulation tax scenario
The following tables show the tax burden from the annual circulation tax before
and after the introduction of a CO2 differentiated element into it. Families in
rural areas are seen to carry a higher tax burden relative to families in urban
areas.
Table 8.9 Average circulation tax initially
Family type
Urban
Rural
1,271
1,374
1,578
1,666
1,345
1,588
1,522
2,116
Table 8.10 Annual circulation tax after introduction of a CO2 differentiation element
Family type
Urban
Rural
1,129
1,354
1,504
1,628
1,209
1,637
1,405
2,230
107
Table 8.11 Average difference before and after, anually
Family type
Urban
Rural
-142
-20
-74
-37
-136
49
-117
114
The tax burden is only one aspect of the effect on car purchasers from introducing tax changes. The other aspect relates to the welfare change that families will
experience due to the CO2 differentiation. The following table shows this
change in total welfare. It is measured in a way similar to the one applied for
the registration tax.
Table 8.12 Welfare effects from CO2 differentiation of the circulation tax (SEK per car,
total lifetime)
Family type
Urban
Rural
-3275
-4212
-4876
-4773
-4037
-4404
-5539
-5599
8.1.3 Effects on private households from the tax scenarios
The overall conclusion from the above calculations is that both tax scenarios
will lead to a substantial redistribution of welfare from the car purchasers and
to the rest of society. This effect is most predominant for the registration tax
scenario, because it includes a general tax increase. This increase leads to a decline in the total car fleet.
Furthermore, it should be noted that the heaviest tax burden increase fall on the
families in rural areas. This is because families in rural areas purchase cars with
higher emissions compared to families in urban areas. Consequently, families
in rural areas also suffer a higher welfare loss relative to families in urban areas. This observation also applies to both tax scenarios. The reason is that families in rural areas tend, on average, to buy bigger cars (and also more CO2 emitting cars). Furthermore, they are more dependent on a car, which is reflected in
less sensitivity to prices compared to the urban population. Families with children will suffer a higher loss relative to families without children. Again, the
reason is that these families purchase cars with higher CO2 emissions relative to
families without children.
108
8.2
Employment effects
Car manufacturing
in the Swedish
economy
The car manufacturing industry is an important contributor to Swedish production and exports. The sector contributes 4%22 of the total production value in
Sweden, and accounts for about 2.3%23 of wages. The latter can indicate that
the industry is relatively more capital intensive than the average Swedish production and/or that the average level of salaries is below the overall average
Swedish level. The industry accounts for about 11.5% of total Swedish export24
and it is estimated that more than 80% of the passenger cars produced in Sweden are exported. The industry employs about 70,00025 people, which corresponds to about 2% of the total employment and about 10% of employment in
industry26.
Relevant outputs
from the model
calculations
The table below illustrates the key outputs of the model calculations that are of
relevance in assessing the socio-economic impacts from the tax scenarios related to the car manufacturing industry.
The table clearly shows that the registration tax scenario will have the largest
impact on car sales and on the car fleet, while the impact from the circulation
tax is lower.
Assessment of
employment effect
In order to assess the employment effect from the above changes in sales of
Swedish cars, it is necessary to have an indicator of the number of employees
per car. Ideally, one would aim to estimate this at the margin, but the available
data allows merely for an estimate of the average. Based on the data and assumptions outlined in Table 8.14, it can be calculated that the production of a
car in Sweden requires almost 0.1 employee. Assuming that all employees are
full time employed, it corresponds to saying that 1 employee produces 10 cars
per year27. It should be noted that the figures contained in the table relate to
1999, as this is the most recent year for which most of the information could be
obtained in a consistent manner.
Correcting for
production in the
Netherlands
The Netherlands share of production is used to in the assessment of the extent
to which a decline in the sales of Swedish brands (shown in the above table)
affects the Swedish employment. The model's calculations of the effect on sales
of Swedish cars do not distinguish between those manufactured in the Netherlands and those produced in Sweden. Consequently, it is necessary to have an
estimate of the share made up by Netherlands manufacture in order not to overestimate the employment effect in Sweden.
22
Input-output table 1998
24
25
SCB online
26
Statistisk Årsbok för Sverige 2001
27
((385044/(385044+108776*3)*70966/385044)
23
109
Table 8.13: Number of cars sold and number of cars in the car fleet. Base situation and
the tax scenarios.
Cars
New cars
Year
1
Car fleet
5
10
20
1
5
10
20
Base
205,154
226,536
195,659
62,206
68,689
59,326
163,167
198,023
182,333
48,022
58,280
53,662
205,154
226,536
195,659
60,274
66,555
57,484
70,530
All cars
-41,987
-28,513
-13,325
-26,904
-24,846
-114,289
-183,303
-253,094
Swedish cars
-14,184
-10,409
-5,664
-10,056
-7,920
-41,043
-71,310
-113,248
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1,932
-2,133
-1,843
-2,261
-1,932
-10,312
-19,824
-36,356
All cars
-20%
-13%
-7%
-11%
-1%
-3%
-4%
-6%
Swedish cars
-23%
-15%
-10%
-14%
-1%
-3%
-6%
-9%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-3%
-3%
-3%
-3%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
All cars
Swedish cars
240,064 4,153,155 4,153,155 4,153,156 4,153,152
72,791
1,365,726 1,289,483 1,248,816 1,255,375
Registration tax
All cars
Swedish cars
213,160 4,128,309 4,038,866 3,969,853 3,900,058
62,735
1,357,806 1,248,440 1,177,506 1,142,127
Circulation tax
All cars
Swedish cars
240,064 4,153,156 4,153,155 4,153,156 4,153,154
1,363,794 1,279,171 1,228,992 1,219,019
Change from
base, number of
cars
Registration tax
Circulation tax
All cars
Swedish cars
Relative change
from base, %
Registration tax
Circulation tax
All cars
Swedish cars
Assumptions
In addition to the key assumptions listed in the table, the calculations of the
socio-economic effects are subject to a number of additional simplifying as-
110
sumptions, the most important of which is the what-if nature that is inherent in
the analysis.
Table 8.14 Overview of key data and assumptions.
Data
Value (1999)
Number of employees in car manufacturing (34)
70,966
Number of passenger cars produced in Sweden
385,044
Number of passenger cars produced and sold in Sweden
66,613
Number of busses and trucks produced in Sweden
108,776
Share of employment that is related to production of passenger cars (see
assumption 1 and 2 below)
0,54
Share of production of Swedish brands that is carried out in Netherlands (see
assumption 3 below)
0,28
Number of employees in vehicle sales, repair and maintenance plus service
stations
77,639
Composition of vehicle fleet
passenger cars
3,890,159
trucks and busses
369,162
motorcycles
119,872
Share employment that is related to sales and servicing of passenger cars
(see assumption 4 below)
0,56
Assumptions
1. It is assumed that it takes three times more manpower to produce a bus/truck than it does
to produce a passenger car. The analysis disregards any other vehicle type. This assumption is used to derive the 0.54 above. If it takes more than that, the employment effect will be
over-estimated and vice versa.
2. It is assumed that the average and the marginal effect is the same. In reality, a share of
the employment would be involved in administration, marketing, research and sales. Consequently, the employment effect is somewhat overestimated.
3. When calculating the employment effect is it assumed that the Netherlands and the Swedish production of Swedish cars are affected similarly. In reality, one could envisage that the
Swedish industry would be more affected, since the Netherlands production is dominated by
small cars whereas the production in Sweden is dominated by the larger cars.
4. It is assumed that it takes three times more manpower to sell and service a bus/truck than
for the passenger cars, lorries and motorcycles. This assumption is used to derive the 0.56
above
Source: Bilismen i Sverige 2000, Input-Output tables for Sweden, Statistisk Årsbok för Sverige, 2001
This approach disregards for example any adjustment efforts done by the
Swedish industry. Thus, the sales of Swedish cars will not only decline, but it
will decline more than the total sales of cars. In other words, the Swedish car
manufacturing industry will loose market shares to other brands. However, it is
unlikely that the Swedish industry will not react to this, for example through
more intensive marketing efforts in Sweden and/or abroad and through an intensified effort towards the development and production of smaller and energy
effective cars.
111
Further, it is assumed that one can apply the labour input of 0.1 for any car.
Given the fact that the taxes are likely to affect the sales of larger cars the most,
this could imply that the employment effect becomes underestimated. Larger
cars would tend to require more labour than smaller cars.
From the table it can be seen that the most important contributor (among the
other industries) to the production in car manufacturing is:
•
renting of machinery and equipment without operator and of personal and
household goods, computer and related services and other business activities
•
wholesale and retail sale, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, retail
sale of automotive fuels
•
manufacture of fabricated metal products, expect machinery and equipment
The remaining industries contribute less than 2% each. The above three sectors
are thus likely to be most affected by a decline in the level of activity in the car
manufacturing industry.
Table 8.17 provides an overview of the most important related industries. In
providing quantitative assessments, the analyses look only at the sector that
covers vehicle sales, repair and maintenance of vehicles and service stations.
The motivation for this delineation being manifold: it is a sector where the outputs of the model based analyses (number of cars and sales of cars) has a direct
and significant impact. It is a sector that employs a fairly high number of people, almost 80,000, and it is a sector where substitution activities (e.g. increased
exports, increased focus on other lines of activity) are likely to be few - at least
in the short run.
Based on the data and assumptions outlined above, the employment per car
amounts to 0.01528 for car sales and car servicing (sector 50).
Resulting employment effects
Table 8.15 provides an overview of the calculated quantified employment effect. The effects shown in the table only includes those that relate to car manufacturing and to the sales and servicing of cars. Other sectors are likely to be
affected as well such as those who supply the industry with raw materials and
intermediate goods and services.
The table shows that car manufacturing will see a decline in the order of between 1% and 2% in employment as a result of the registration tax, whereas the
circulation tax will result in a decline that is significantly less than 1%. Car
sales and servicing will only be affected by the registration tax, as it is the only
scenario that affects the size of the car fleet. In total the registration tax may
result in an employment decline in these two sectors of between 1% and 4%.
28
(3,890,159/(3,890,159+119,972+369,162*3))*77,639/3,890,159
112
The order of magnitude of the effect increases over time reaching 4% in 20
years.
In regard to the quantitative estimates of the employment effects, the following
should be borne in mind:
•
The average age of the cars increases in the registration tax scenario. This
may call for higher demand for repair and maintenance services and this
may in turn also increase the demand for spare parts also from the Swedish
•
While the sales of new cars decline, and the size of the car fleet decreases
in the registration tax scenario, this need not necessarily result in proportional declines in the level of activity in the car sales sector.
•
The calculations rest on the assumptions regarding the relative employment inputs/vehicle for passenger cars relative to heavy vehicles, on the
assumed share of Netherlands production in the sales of Swedish cars, and
on the assumed linear relation between cars produced and number of employees.
•
The calculations ignore possible reactions from the car manufacturing industry as well as other ongoing or planned developments that will change
the current position of Swedish car manufacturing in the market.
113
Table 8.15 Employment effects from the two tax scenarios
Years after implementation
1
5
10
20
Employment in car manufacturing
-971
-1,633
-733
-1,608
Employment in sales and servicing of
cars
-377
-1,734
-2,781
-3,839
-1,348
-3,367
-3,514
-5,447
- car manufacturing
-1
-2
-1
-2
- car sales and servicing
-1
-2
-4
-5
- total
-1
-2
-2
-4
-183
-203
-175
-214
0
0
0
0
-183
-203
-175
-214
>-1
>-1
>-1
>-1
>-1
>-1
>-1
>-1
Registration tax
Total
Relative to base year employment, %
Circulation tax
Employment in car manufacturing
Employment in sales and servicing of
cars
Total
Relative to base year employment, %
- car manufacturing
- car sales and servicing
- total
The table below provides a more detailed overview of the most important related industries.
Table 8.16 Overview of the employment effects in car manufacturing and in car
sales and servicing as a result of the two tax scenarios.
From the table it can be seen that the most important contributor (among the
other industries) to the production in car manufacturing is:
•
renting of machinery and equipment without operator and of personal and
household goods, computer and related services and other business activities
•
wholesale and retail sale, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, retail
sale of automotive fuels
•
manufacture of fabricated metal products, expect machinery and equipment
The remaining industries contribute less than 2% each. The above three sectors
are thus likely to be most affected by a decline in the level of activity in the car
114
Table 8.17 Contribution from car manufacturing to other industries and other
industries' contribution to car manufacturing. Share of wages in production
value and share of imports. 1998
Industry
Composition of
production
value of car
manufacturing
industry, %
Contribution by
car manufacturing to production value of the
industry, %
Share of wages
in production
value, %
Share of imports in production value, %
Manufacture of rubber and plastics products
(25)
1,18
5,78
18,51
28,45
Manufacture of basic metals (27)
1,58
3,42
11,5
28
Manufacture of fabricated metal products
expect machinery and equipment (28)
3,22
6,28
21,69
15,98
Manufacture of machinery and equipment
(29)
1,3
1,55
18,69
25,67
31-32: Manufacture of electrical machinery
and apparatus n.e.c. and Manufacture of
radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus (31-32)
0,92
0,92
11,32
31,86
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and
semi-trailers (34)
13,99
13,99
12,17
31,58
Manufacturing n.e.c.(36-37)
0,97
4,50
27,79
21,82
Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles
(50.2)
0,05
0,59
23,49
22,99
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor
vehicles and motorcycles; retail sale of
automotive fuel (50-52 rest)
4,31
2,54
35,58
5,57
Other land transport and Transport via pipelines (60.2-3)
1,4
2,28
20,41
5,37
Financial intermediation, except insurance
and pension funding and Activities auxiliary
to financial intermediation (65+67)
0,76
1,53
24,23
3,39
Renting of machinery and equipment without operator and of personal and household
goods, Computer and related activities and
Other business activities (71-74)
6,92
3,64
25,06
8,6
Other (including e.g. salaries, taxes and
subsidies
63,4
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Total
100
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Note: Industrial NACE code in parenthesis.
9
115
Cost Benefit Analysis
External benefits
When cars pollute the pollution enters the ecological system. This means that
the environmental costs associated with car pollution accrues to the society as a
whole and not only to the motorist. This adverse effect on others is in the economic literature referred to as an externality because the motorist by driving a
car imposes external costs on all others. Introducing a CO2 differentiated tax
can “internalise” and hence diminish such costs by altering the behaviour of
individuals in the society.
Private costs
However, the induced change in behaviour is associated with a cost, which is
upheld exclusively by the single individual while the society at large remains
unaffected.29
The content of this chapter is as follows. The first section includes the main
cost benefit analysis and the main results of the total long run costs and benefits. In the second section the total effect is decomposed and focus is exclusively on effects arising from CO2 differentiation and its implications for the
composition of the car fleet whereas the change in the size of the car fleet is left
out. The second section is included to allow for closer comparison between the
circulation tax differentiation and the registration tax differentiation.
9.1
Total cost benefit analysis
This section describes the cost benefit analysis of the long run effects from the
changes to the tax system. In practice we compare year by year the new tax system with the base situation and assess the costs and benefits from the difference
between the base and the tax scenario.
The following benefits are included:
•
•
Saved CO2 from change in CO2 efficiency
Saved CO2 from reduction in car fleet
•
Reduction in other air emissions (NOx, Paticulate matters, SO2, HC) due to
reduction in car fleet
Reduction in car accidents due to reduction in car fleet
•
29
Such costs are often referred to as “private” costs as opposed to the external costs, which
are “public”.
116
•
Reduction in noise due to reduction in car fleet
The following costs are included in the analysis:
•
•
•
•
•
Welfare loss due to demand shift (CO2 differentiation)
Welfare loss due to reduced car fleet
Reduced profit for Swedish car producers
Reduced employment
Increase in other emissions (NOx, Particulate matters, SO2, HC) due to
older cars (both age and mileage effect)
9.1.1 Key assumptions
The key assumptions are listed in the tables below
Table 9.1 Basic general assumptions in the cost benefit analysis
Parameter
Value
1
Yearly wage car manufacturing
223,200
Yearly wage car sales and maintennance2
216,000
3
Discount rate
4%
4
New car sales 2002
205,154
1
Source: SCB: Lønstatistisk Årsbok 2000, average for "Finmekanikere", "Maskinoperatører".
2
Source: SCB: Lønstatistisk Årsbok 2000, average for "Finmekanikere", "Maskinoperatører" og "Sælgere m.fl.".
3
Source: SIKA Report 2000:3 (abridged version of "Review of principles for social economic estimates and estimates in the transport sector", SIKA Report 1999:6,
4
This figure refers to the number that should be brought into the car fleet in order to keep
the total car fleet constant as assumed in the model calculations. The actual figure for 2000
was 354,649 (Source: SIKA: Statistiska Meddelanden 2001).
Table 9.2 Basic car assumptions in cost benefit analysis
Parameter
Distribution of new cars
Average car life time
Average mileage
Average fuel consumption (l/100 km)
1
Fuel price (SEK/l 10/12_01)
Petrol
Diesel
Average
93.5%
6.5%
15.8
15.8
15.8
12,036
17,765
12,408
8.4
6.5
8.3
8.2
6.5
8.1
1
Source: EU Oil Bulletin Petrolier 10/12-01 (http://www.np.no/ "Fakta i Tal" ->
"International statistics" -> "Drivstoffpriser i EU, ukentlig oppdatert" )
Shadow price on
CO2 emission costs
The reduced CO2 emissions are an external benefit that accrues to society at
large. No official price exists for CO2 reduction so a shadow price is applied.
117
Determination of shadow prices is always associated with some degree of uncertainty and arbitrariness. Hence two different shadow prices are used in order
to obtain a span in which the “actual” price is. The two CO2-prices applied are
1.5 SEK per kg CO2 and 0.53 SEK per kg CO2 respectively.30
Employment effects
The tax scenarios result in a reduced employment in the Swedish car
manufacturing industry and in the related service and repair businesses. From a
welfare economic perspective, this has two types of effects.
First, it will result in a welfare loss for the people that loose their jobs. Whereas
some of the people will find employment elsewhere and the rest will stay unemployed. The latter group will suffer a welfare loss, since they must be expected to gain a welfare surplus from being in employment.
Second, society as a whole can obtain a welfare gain because the free labour
capacity (that used to work in car manufacturing and the related industries) can
be employed somewhere else, whereby they will produce goods or services,
and these goods and services will have a value to society. This effect reduces
the welfare loss related to the loss of profit in the car industry, because the
profit in the car industry will be substituted by profit in other industries.
The size of these two welfare effects depends on the ability of the free labour to
become employed somewhere else. If a relatively large fraction moves to other
places of employment, the welfare loss for the workers will be relatively small
and the welfare loss due to reduced profit in the car industry will be small. If,
on the opposite, a relatively large fraction of the free labour come to stay unemployed the welfare loss for these people will be relatively large and the welfare loss due to reduced profit in the car industry will be large.
The cost benefit analysis assumes that 25% of those that become unemployed
in a given year will have stayed unemployed for the whole of this year. In the
period after, it is assumed that, each year, 10% of those will find a new job.
Furthermore, the analysis is supplemented with sensitivity analysis. One of
these assumes that all those, who become unemployed, find a new job already
during their first year of unemployment, and another one assumes that only
50% find a new job during the first year.
The adjustment process is illustrated in the figure below.
Welfare loss for unemployed workers
The welfare loss for the unemployed workers is estimated as follows: The unemployed worker originally supplied his labour according to his supply curve
illustrated in Figure 9.2.
In the initial situation, the individuals work L0 hours gaining the wage W0. The
labour supply is an increasing function of the wage. Once the wage is equal to
the reservation wage (Wres) their supply of labour will be zero.
30
Source: SIKA report 2000:3
118
Figure 9.1 Reallocation of unemployment
Still unem ployed
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Years
Low unemployment
Central assumption
Figure 9.2 Labour supply
W0
Wres
L0
High unemployment
119
In the initial situation, the workers obtain a welfare gain from working, corresponding to the triangle marked by the thick line in the figure. Correspondingly, they will loose this area once they are unemployed.
Thus the welfare loss for the group of people, which loose their jobs and stays
unemployed is: ½*L0*(W0-Wres).
Fuel savings
Saved fuel due to the reduced car fleet is not included as benefit in the analysis.
The reason is that this reduction in fuel is counterbalanced by a corresponding
reduction of the transport benefit from cars. In practical terms, when individuals decide to skip their car, they will have a reduction in their fuel expenses.
However, in order to maintain mobility they will have to use the saved money
for other means of transportation, e.g. train or bus. Even if they decide to move
less around this would mean that their benefit from transport would be reduced
and crowd out the major part of the fuel savings this way.
Fuel savings due to the increases in energy efficiency are not included either.
This gain is included (taken into account) in the car purchaser’s choice when
he/she adapts to the new car prices. It is therefore included in the loss of welfare due to the car price change.
Other emissions
The changes to the demand for new vehicles will not only affect the CO2
emissions, but it will also affect the level of other emissions. This analysis includes the effects on the emissions of major pollutants, i.e. NOx, Particulate
matters, HC and SO2.
NOx, Particulate matters and HC are regulated with a set of maximum emissions standards. Since the standards are reduced (tightened) over time the average emissions will decline over time. However, if the renewal of the car fleet is
delayed, the emissions will decrease slower than they would have done otherwise. Therefore, increases in the average age of the car fleet will lead to higher
average emissions. Furthermore, reductions in the size of the car fleet will lead
to a decline in the emissions of CO2 as well as the other pollutants.
The applied emission factors were calculated in the Danish TEMA2000 model,
and are summarised in the following tables for petrol and for diesel cars.
Table 9.3 Average emissions per km for petrol cars > 1.4l (g/km)
EURO norm
Vintage
EURO0
EURO1
EURO2
EURO3
EURO3
- 86
87-96
97-00
01-05
06-
0.02107
0.01042
0.01042
0.01042
0.01042
NOx (g)
2.4014
0.2789
0.12551
0.0753
0.03603
SO2 (g)
0.00724
0.00714
0.00714
0.00714
0.00607
HC (g)
1.85067
0.1958
0.11962
0.07328
0.04005
PM10 (g)
Note: Calculation settings: default travel pattern, 40 km trip including cold start emissions,
average mileage = 60000
120
Table 9.4 Average emissions per km for diesel cars > 2.0l (g/km)
EURO norm
EURO0
Vintage
EURO1
EURO2
EURO3
EURO3
- 86
87-96
97-00
01-05
06-
PM10 (g)
0.1402
0.0477
0.0373
0.0342
0.0324
NOx (g)
0.7207
0.6596
0.4698
0.3431
0.1904
SO2 (g)
0.0082
0.0062
0.0062
0.0062
0.0052
HC (g)
0.1608
0.0804
0.0563
0.0394
0.0193
Note: Calculation settings: default travel pattern, 40 km trip including cold start emissions,
average mileage = 60000
The valuation of cost of these emissions is based on SIKA Report 2000:3 referred in the following table.
Table 9.5 Valuation of other emissions
Pollutant
SEK per Kg
NOx
109
SO2
122
HC
50
Particulate matters
3,329
Source: SIKA Report 2000:3
Accidents
Fewer cars lead to fewer accidents. On the other hand, older cars are likely to
be involved in more accidents, due to a higher risk of mechanical failure. The
calculations only include the effect from the reduced car fleet. No data are
available to assess the effect from car age on car accidents. However, regular
car inspections and the fact that only a fraction of the accidents are caused by
mechanical failure makes it reasonable to assume that the effect from car age
on accidents is relatively small.
Based on the number of accidents with passenger cars involved31, and a valuation of the resulting fatalities and injuries32, the external cost of accidents can
be calculated to be 1,866 SEK per car.
Noise
The reduction of the car fleet is assumed to result in reduced external cost from
noise. It is assumed that the relative noise reduction corresponds to the relative
reduction of the car fleet. The external cost of 1 km is calculated based on a
study on the marginal change in the number of households affected by noise in
31
32
SIKA Statistiska Meddelanda 2000
SIKA Report 2000:3
121
Denmark33 and an adjustment to the Swedish valuation of noise34. The result is
a cost of 0.01 SEK per km.
9.1.2 Cost benefit analysis of the registration tax scenario
The registration tax scenario results in a reduction of the car fleet, an increase
in the average age and an increase in the average CO 2 emissions per car. In the
cost benefit analysis, the effect from the increased average age almost exactly
offsets the CO2 savings that can be harvested due to the CO2 differentiation.
Consequently, the total benefit from the registration tax scenario is reduced
substantially.
Table 9.6 shows the results from the cost benefit analysis. Note that the figures
in the main body of the table show the values per year. For instance, the welfare loss due to the reduced car fleet is 1,152 MSEK in year 20. This loss
comes from a 6.1% reduction of the car fleet corresponding to a reduction in
the number of cars of 253,094.
The bottom line of Table 9.6 summarises the cumulated net benefit from the
analysis. In a 10 years time horizon there is a loss of approximately 1.3 billion
SEK. In a 20 years time horizon there is a loss of 1.1 billion SEK.
Taking a more optimistic view on the employment effect, assuming that 95%
find other employment already in the first year, this would still result in a net
loss of welfare from the registration tax scenario. In this case however, the cumulated loss is reduced down to 0.7 billion SEK in a 10 years horizon and 0.3
billion in a 20 years time horizon.
The cost benefit analysis thus shows that it is costly to reduce the CO2 emissions by the introduction of a registration tax. The resulting reduction in the
number of cars imposes substantial welfare losses onto the car owners. This
welfare loss is of the same order of magnitude as the benefit from the CO2 reductions. On top of this welfare loss for the car owners, there will be a substantial negative impact on the car industry and in the service and repair sector.
Even though there is a benefit from fewer accidents and reduced local emissions and noise, these benefits are not sufficient to outweigh the negative impacts from the registration tax.
Factors not included
The impact on service and repair sector is assumed to be proportional to the
number of cars. In reality this effect will to some extent be outweighed by the
ageing effect of the car fleet since older cars require more maintenance. This
effect is not included in the analysis. Likewise, the impact on car producers excludes efforts to adapt to the new situation. Both of these would reduce the cost
of registration tax. The other assumptions underlying the calculations of the
employment effects are shown in
33
Samfundsøkonomisk omkostningseffektivitet i transportsektoren, Arbejdspapir 1, Marts
1997
34
8330 SEK per SBT, SIKA Report 2000:3
122
Assumptions
In addition to the key assumptions listed in the table, the calculations of the
socio-economic effects are subject to a number of additional simplifying assumptions, the most important of which is the what-if nature that is inherent in
the analysis.
Table 8.14. On the other hand, the welfare loss that motorists will suffer due to
the driving in older cars is not included either. This would increase the cost of
the registration tax.
Table 9.6 Cost benefit analysis of introducing a CO2 differentiated registration tax
(1,000,000 SEK per year)
Year
1
5
10
20
Costs
Smaller cars
57
70
64
75
113
520
834
1,152
Employment (Cost)
20
10
3
2
Profit
26
12
4
2
5
15
14
7
17
53
50
24
239
679
969
1,262
53,615
250,300
408,722
512,020
CO2 reductions SEK (0.53)
28
133
217
271
80
375
613
768
-57
-115
-54
54
46
213
342
472
3
14
23
31
73
488
924
1,326
Total net benefit per year
-166
-192
-46
64
Discounted
-166
-164
-14
26
Cumulated net benefit
-166
-908
-1326
-1096
Fewer cars
Car manufacturing
Car repair
Employment (Cost)
Profit
Total cost per year
Benefits
CO2 reductions (ton)
Other emissions (NOx, PM10,
SO2, HC)
Accidents
Noise
Total benefit per year
123
9.1.3 Cost benefit analysis of the circulation tax scenario
The above calculations show that it is costly to save CO2 emissions by means of
reducing the car fleet. The circulation tax scenario however solely relies on
CO2 differentiation. Thus, the size of the car fleet remains unaffected by this
scenario. The outcome of this cost benefit analysis is therefore more favourable
in this case compared to the registration tax scenario.
Table 9.7 Cost benefit analysis of introducing a CO2 differentiation in the annual circulation tax (MSEK per year)
Year
1
5
10
20
Costs
Smaller cars
39
43
37
46
0
0
0
0
Employment (Cost)
3
2
1
0
Profit
4
3
1
1
Employment (Cost)
0
0
0
0
Profit
0
0
0
0
45
48
40
47
13
68
124
201
7
36
66
106
20
102
186
301
Other emissions (NOx, PM10,
SO2, HC)
0
-1
-2
-3
Accidents
0
0
0
0
Noise
0
0
0
0
20
100
184
298
Total net benefit per year (1.5
SEK/kg)
-26
53
145
251
Discounted
-26
45
108
115
Cumulated net benefit
-26
52
574
1,767
Fewer cars
Car manufacturing
Car repair
Total cost per year
Benefits
CO2 reductions (ton)
Total benefit per year
(1.5 SEK/kg)
124
While the car industry will suffer some costs induced by a reduced market
share of Swedish car makes, the net benefit from introducing a CO2 differentiated element into the annual circulation tax is 1,767 mill SEK (20 years).
Taking a less optimistic view on the employment effect in terms of assuming
that only 50% will find other employment already in the first year of their unemployment would still result in a net welfare gain from the circulation tax
scenario. In this case, the gain is reduced a little, namely down to 1.720 billion
in a 20 years time horizon.
9.2
Decomposed effect from CO2 differentiation
The results of the cost benefit analyses of the registration tax scenario and the
circulation tax scenario are not directly comparable. The registration tax scenario involves a general tax increase, while the circulation tax scenario is
merely a restructuring of an existing tax, which renders the total revenue effect
neutral. Therefore, this section decomposes the total effect and compares the
effect from the CO2 differentiation part of the two tax scenarios. Thus, the effect on the size of the car fleet from the registration tax is disregarded in this
analysis. The focus of this analysis is therefore the cost and benefit that occur
when car buyers buy smaller and more energy efficient cars.
To focus on the CO2 differentiation, it was chosen to look at one generation of
new cars.
Costs
Following this idea the cost from the introduction a CO2 differentiation is the
welfare loss that occurs when car purchasers are forced to buy other cars that
what they would prefer in the absence of the CO2 tax. This loss is valued in
monetary terms by the comparing the car price net of registration tax before and
after the CO2 tax.
Benefits
The benefit is the reduction of CO2 emissions from this generation of cars,
which occurs exactly because of the tendency to buy smaller and more energy
efficient car. These savings are valued by the two alternative CO2 values (0.53
and 1.5 SEK per kg) respectively.
Impacts on industry
The CO2 tax will affect the Swedish car manufacturing industry. As has been
shown previously, the market share of Swedish car makes will decline. This
will lead to reduced profits and reduced employment of the industry. To the
extent that the lost production is not compensated for by increased economic
activity elsewhere in the economy, this will result in a net cost to society.
For the sake of simplicity, other emissions and effects are left out of this analysis. These other effects are to a large extent related to changes in the car fleet
size and to the age of cars, and consequently, their omission is likely to have
only minor implications as these factors are left out of this analysis as well.
125
9.2.1 The CO2 differentiated element of the registration tax
The introduction of a CO2 differentiated registration tax implies that car purchasers who buy energy efficient (and to some extent small) cars will see a reduction in the car price. By comparison, car purchasers who buy inefficient cars
will experience see an increase in the car price. This observation is however
only valid for this analysis, which focuses exclusively on the CO2 differentiation part of the tax.
Costs
A CO2 differentiation of the registration tax leaves the car buyers better of who
buy cars with low emissions, while those who buy cars with high CO2 emissions will see a loss. However, in both cases, society as a whole will experience
a welfare loss, which is caused by the distortion of the market equilibrium,
which apply in the absence of the tax. The total welfare loss, which results from
the CO2 differentiation part of the registration tax, is 72 MSEK. This corresponds to 352 SEK per new car sold.
Benefits
At the same time, the CO2 differentiation will lead to a decline in CO2
emissions of 7,135 tonnes. Thus, this decline arises solely as a result of more
fuel-efficient cars. The monetary value of this reduction is in the order of 60 169 MSEK depending on applied unit value of CO2 (0.53 and 1.5 SEK respectively). If future CO2 savings are discounted with discount factor of 4%, the
value of the CO2 savings will be reduced to between 44 and 125 MSEK.
The impacts from the reduced market share of Swedish cars include both profit
and employment.
The reduced profit is calculated as the average price net of tax multiplied by the
number of cars sold, and assuming a profit rate of 5%. These figures imply that
the registration tax differentiation would reduce the profit in the Swedish car
industry by 15 MSEK.
The CO2 differentiation reduces the market share of Swedish cars by approximately 1 percentage-point. This corresponds to a reduction of about 2000 cars
in 2002. However, 28% of the car production is assumed to take place in the
Netherlands, and therefore only 72% of the reduction affects the employment in
Sweden. Furthermore, it is assumed that half of the redundant employees find
alternative employment. Valuing half of the labour power to the welfare loss
from unemployment described above would cost 7 MSEK.
The tables below summarise the key figures from this cost benefit analysis.
Table 9.8 Costs associated with the CO2 differentiation element of a registration tax
(MSEK)
Cost item
Cost
Welfare loss due to car demand shift
72
Reduced profit in car industry
15
Reduction in employment
7
126
Table 9.9 Benefits associated with the CO2 differentiation element of a registration tax
(MSEK)
Cost item
Benefit
CO2 savings (ton per year)
Net benefits
12,333
CO2 savings (SEK, 0.53 SEK per kg) per year
11
CO2 savings (SEK, 1.5 SEK per kg) per year
7
Table 9.10 summarises the net benefits for one generation of new cars for the
total lifetime of the cars under alternative assumptions.
Table 9.10 Net benefits associated with a the CO2 differentiation element of a registration tax (MSEK)
Assumption
CO2 value
CO2 value
0.53 SEK/kg
1.5 SEK/kg
Excluding employment effect
-43
38
Half of employees find other employment
- 50
30
The net benefit from the CO2 differentiation can thus be seen to vary from a
small loss of approximately 50 MSEK (-244 SEK per car) to a gain of 38
MSEK (185 SEK per car). The former applies the low unit value of CO2 and
assumes that half of those, who become unemployed, stay unemployed. The
latter figure applies the high value of CO2 excludes any employment effect, i.e.
assumes that all find other employment.
The benefits accrue to society and are not associated with the individual car
owner per se. Therefore, it is not entirely correct to calculate the net benefit per
car. However, this calculation serves to illustrate the relative achievements.
9.2.2 The CO2 differentiated element of the circulation tax
scenario
The same calculations were carried out for the scenario that introduces a CO2
differentiation into the annual circulation tax.
Costs
The welfare loss related to the CO2 differentiation of the circulation tax is
calculated to be 39 MSEK. This corresponds to about 190 SEK per new car.
Benefits
At the same time there will be a reduction in CO2 emissions of 213,000 tonnes.
This reduction arises solely as a result of the more fuel-efficient cars. The value
of this reduction is between 113 and 320 MSEK, using 0.53 and 1.5 SEK as the
unit price of CO2 respectively. If the future CO2 savings are discounted by a
127
discount factor of 4%, the value of the CO2 savings is reduced to83 –
235MSEK.
Also in this case will there be a decline in the market share of Swedish cars,
and this results in a reduction of the turnover of the Swedish car manufacturers.
Again, this effect will spill over into reduced profit to the Swedish car producers and reduced employment in the Swedish car industry.
The calculations show that introduction of the CO2 differentiated element into
the circulation tax will reduce the profit in the Swedish car industry by around
15 mill SEK.
The CO2 differentiation will reduce the market share of Swedish cars by about
1 percentage-point. This corresponds to a reduction by 2000 cars in 2002. Under the same assumptions as in the previous section, this translates into a welfare loss from unemployment of a value of about 8 MSEK.
Overview
Table 9.11 and Table 9.12 summarise the key figures of the cost benefit
analysis.
Table 9.11 Costs associated with the CO2 differentiation element of a circulation tax (
MSEK)
Cost item
Cost
Welfare loss due to car demand shift
39
Reduced profit in car industry
15
Reduction in employment
8
Table 9.12 Benefits associated with the CO2 differentiation element of a circulation tax
(MSEK)
Cost item
Benefit
CO2 savings (ton per year)
Net benefits
13,485
CO2 savings (SEK, 0.53 SEK per kg)
7
CO2 savings (SEK, 1.5 SEK per kg)
20
Table 9.13 summarises the net benefit for one generation of new cars for the
total lifetime of the cars under alternative assumptions.
Table 9.13 Net benefits associated with the CO2 differentiation element of a circulation
tax (MSEK)
Assumption
CO2 value
CO2 value
0.53 SEK/kg
1.5 SEK/kg
128
Excluding employment effect
30
182
Half of employees find other employment
22
174
The net benefit from the CO2 differentiation varies from a net gain of approximately 22 mio (107 SEK per car) to a net gain of 182 mio (146 SEK per car).
The latter is based on the high value of CO2 and assumes that all who become
unemployed find alternative employment. The former applies the lower price of
CO2 and assumes that only half of the unemployed finds alternative employment.
9.3
Concluding comments
The costs of introducing a registration tax clearly outweigh the benefits.
The redesign of the circulation tax to include a CO2 differentiated element provides a positive net benefit in the medium and long run (5 - 20 years), while
there is a net cost in the short term (1-2 years).
The reason for this major difference in the costs and benefits of the two tax
scenarios is to be found in the fact that the registration tax gives rise to an increase in the consumer price of cars. This increase is very distorting, mainly
because of the welfare loss it inflicts on the (former) car owners. The circulation tax scenario was framed so that the average tax level remains unchanged
compared to the level of today. Thereby, the size of the fleet remains unaffected, and consequently, the distortions caused by this scenario are much less.
Total CO2 emissions are less reduced in the circulation tax scenario compared
to the registration tax scenario. However, this has no implications for the overall result. This is determined mainly by the difference in costs. Thus, the overall
conclusion, namely that it is costly to reduce CO2 emissions by means of a registration tax, appears to be quite robust despite the fact that the above cost benefit analysis is somewhat rudimentary.
A comparison of the costs and benefits of the CO2 differentiation alone, i.e.
omitting any inclusion of the effect on the car fleet, shows that the circulation
tax differentiation has more effect than the registration tax differentiation. The
net benefit from the circulation tax CO2 differentiation is higher relative to the
net benefit from the registration tax differentiation. Measured in terms of benefits per kg of CO2, the circulation tax differentiation also provides larger net
benefits than the registration tax scenario. It is 0.8 SEK per kg CO2 in the circulation tax scenario, and 0.3 SEK per kg CO2 in the registration tax scenario.
10
Conclusions
10.1
CO2 reducing potentials
129
It is important to distinguish clearly between issues related to the tax level versus those that relate to tax differentiation. In the context of this study, the level
and the differentiation can be said to play two different roles. One of the major
merits of the tax level is that it can be used to control the number of cars. The
tax differentiation on the other hand, has its strength in its ability to influence
people's choice of which car to buy, once they have made the decision to buy a
car.
The registration tax scenario as it is framed here includes both aspects, whereas
the circulation tax scenario has been defined to contain only the differentiation
element. The average level of the circulation tax is maintained at the current
level.
This section first summarises the key results from each of the scenarios separately. Thereafter, the section compares the results from the two scenarios.
Key results
New car sales
10.1.1 The registration tax scenario
The registration tax scenario provides a reduction in total CO2 emissions from
the car fleet in the order of 5% in 20 years. Taking a shorter time horizon, the
reductions are smaller, e.g. just above 1% in 5 years. The reductions come
mainly through a decline in the number of cars in the fleet. The average emission level per car (gram of CO2/km/car) is almost constant in this scenario, and
the average age of the cars increase by about half a year as a result of reduced
scrapping. It should be noted that the resulting decline in the car fleet is a result
mainly of the assumed price elasticity of -0.6. Care should thus be taken not to
interpret this decline too directly, as the result is highly sensitive to this elasticity. For example, an elasticity of only –0.35 would provide a reduction in total
CO2 emissions of 3% in 20 years. While this figure is lower than the original
one, it also involves a smaller reduction in the number of cars, namely 2.5%
compared to the original decline of 4.2%.
The sales of new car is affected in two ways. First, there is a decline in the sales
of new cars, which adheres from the decline in the total car fleet. Second, this
130
decline is accentuated by reduced scrapping, which also leads to a reduction in
the sales of new cars.
Tax level
When the value based component of the registration tax is set to 20% instead of
the 10%, the total tax burden increases. However, it has only a limited effect on
the total CO2 reductions. The reason for this limited effect lies in the trade off
between two effects. On the one hand fuel efficiency of the new cars improves
as a result of the tax increase, and on the other hand car owners tend to keep
their cars for longer as a result of the price increase. The latter has a significant
effect on the CO2 emissions since older cars have higher CO2 emissions.
The net effect from a higher tax level comes therefore exclusively from a further decrease in the size of the car fleet and the higher the tax level the lower is
the extra potential reduction to be achieved this way.
CO2 differentiation
Doubling the price per g CO2 emitted and maintaining the same average tax
level has very little impact on CO2 emissions. The reason is that the tax can
never turn into a net subsidy. A doubling of the CO2 tax would therefore imply
that more car owners would hit the lower ceiling of zero registration tax.
Swedish car makes
The sales of cars manufactured in Sweden will drop for two reasons. First of all
because Swedish car makes typically are larger, less CO2 efficient cars than the
average car, and secondly as a result of the overall drop in the car fleet, which
is accentuated by the drop in the share of Swedish cars among new cars sold.
10.1.2 The circulation tax scenario
The average tax burden is kept constant in this scenario. Consequently, this
scenario has no impact on the size of the car fleet. Hence, the entire effect on
CO2 emissions is provided through the differentiation alone.
The assumed circulation tax leads to a reduction in the total emissions of CO2
from the car fleet. The reduction is the order of 2% in 20 years. Taking a
shorter time horizon, the reductions are smaller, e.g. just above 0.5% in 5 years.
The reductions are provided through a decline in the average emissions per car
(gram of CO2/km/car). The average emissions decrease by 2.5% over 20 years.
As there are no effects on the size of the car fleet and scrapping, the average
age of the cars also remain constant. The reason why the relative reduction in
total CO2 emissions is lower than the average CO2 reduction per car is that the
average mileage increases. This is because cars become more fuel-efficient (the
rebound effect), whereby running costs are reduced.
Swedish car makes
The sales of new cars produced in Sweden is estimated to decline from 30.5%
to 29.5%. Over a 20-year time horizon, Swedish cars will constitute 0.88 percentage points less of the car fleet as a result of the redesign of the circulation
tax. The reason is that Swedish car makes are typically larger and less CO2 efficient than the average car.
131
10.1.3 Comparison of the two scenarios
Care should be taken to compare the performance of the two scenarios. They
fulfil different roles (cf. below) and they impact differently on the tax burden of
car purchasers and car owners. Nevertheless, there are important generic conclusions to be made.
Thus, the analyses clearly point to the importance of distinguishing between tax
levels and tax differentiation. Roughly speaking, the level of the tax affects the
overall price structure per se, i.e. it makes cars relatively more expensive than
other consumer goods. Hence, it has an impact on whether people decide to
have a car. By comparison, differentiation affects the choice that people make
on which car to buy, but has less impact on the overall price structure (when
comparing cars to other consumer goods).
As mentioned above, the introduction of a value based registration tax plus a
CO2 differentiation element would reduce total emissions from passenger cars
by 5% in the long run. By comparison, redesigning the circulation tax to include a CO2 differentiated element would reduce CO2 emissions by 2% in the
long run. This difference in total CO2 reductions over time is illustrated in
Figure 10.1.
Figure 10.1 CO2 reduction over time (in percent) - registration and circulation tax
CO2 reduction
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Year
% CO2 reduction, circulation tax
% CO2 reduction, registration tax
It is seen that the effect from the circulation tax is almost fully implemented
after 20 years while the effect from the registration tax takes more than 30 years
to be fully realised. This is because the effect on the size of the car fleet is
phased in gradually over a long time horizon.
132
The registration tax scenario provides higher CO2 reductions than the circulation tax scenario. This is, however, only a result of the resulting decline of the
car fleet. Looking solely at the effects from the CO2 differentiated element of
the tax, the differentiating power is highest for the circulation tax. This is seen
from the effect on new car sales. By differentiation power is means the reductions provided by the differentiation alone.
The fact that the sales of new cars are more affected by the circulation tax than
by the registration tax points to the conclusion that people buy annual energy
savings at too high a price.35
The sales of Swedish car makes (i.e. Swedish brands) on the Swedish market
will in both scenarios be more affected than the sales of cars as a whole. This
reflects the fact that Swedish car makes are typically larger, less CO2 efficient
cars than the average car. As a result of the decline in the car fleet (a drop of
about 4% in the 20 years perspective), this effect will be most outspoken for the
registration tax.
Comparisons between the differentiating power of registration tax and the circulation tax shows that the effect of the circulation tax seems higher relative to
the registration tax. A CO2 differentiation of 880 SEK per g CO2 in the registration tax provides approximately a reduction of 1.4% of the average CO2 emissions from new cars. A CO2 differentiation of 44 SEK in the annual circulation
tax provides a reduction of 2.5% in the average CO2 emissions from new cars.
With the average lifetime of 15.8 years, the annual amount of 44 SEK would
correspond to 700 SEK.
The major reason for the different differentiation powers is that company cars
are less sensitive to price changes relative to private cars, but on the other hand
company cars are more sensitive to the annual cost relative to private cars. The
following table shows the differentiating power of the two taxes for private cars
and company cars respectively.
Table 10.1 Differentiating power of registration and circulation tax
Tax
Circulation tax
Registration tax
Private cars
Company cars
2.2%
3.1%
2.1%
0.8%
As can be seen from the table the CO2 differentiating powers of the circulation
tax and the registration tax are almost identical in the case of private cars.
Company cars, on the other hand, are much more sensitive to annual cost and
therefore more sensitive to the circulation tax relative to the registration tax. It
should be noted that the effect from changes to the circulation tax for the com-
35
This phenomenon also occurs in the choice between petrol and diesel vehicles where
diesel vehicles often are “too” expensive compared to their relative fuel efficiency.
133
pany cars rests on the assumption that such tax changes are reflected in the personal taxation of company cars.
In regard to the latter, it is important to note that the annual costs consist of
both circulation tax and fuel costs. It is assumed that an increase in the circulation tax of e.g. 1000 SEK would have the same effect as an increase in the annual fuel costs of the same amount. Furthermore, it is assumed that changes to
the circulation tax are fully reflected in the car purchase decision of company
cars.
Company cars may be split into two types. Company cars used for company
purposes and company cars used by employee for private use (like private
cars). Exactly which car is purchased of the latter type may be decided either by
the company or by the employee. If the company decides which cars to offer to
the employee then the annual tax is taken into consideration when deciding
which cars to offer. On the other hand, if the choice is left completely to the
employee which car to have as company car, then the annual tax is not taken
into consideration by the employee unless the annual tax is included in the personal taxation.
Presently, the annual tax paid by the company for a company car is not reflected in the personal taxation of company cars. If this policy is maintained in
the new tax system then the model calculations referred to in this report overestimate the effect from the circulation tax scenarios. Assuming that 33% of the
company cars fall into the group where the employee himself decide exactly
which car to have as a company car this overestimation amounts to 20% of the
total CO2 reductions.
However, imposing a CO2 element to the circulation tax would make some of
the most ineffective cars very expensive in terms of annual taxation for the
company. Therefore, some companies would decide no longer to offer these
cars to their employee. Therefore, the real overestimation would probably be
substantially lower than 20%.
In the light of the higher sensitivity of company cars to the annual costs, and
because company cars constitute about 50% of the sales of new cars, these assumptions are important.
10.2
The cost benefit analyses showed that it is costly to reduce CO2 emissions by
means of a registration tax with a CO2 differentiated element. This scenario results in net costs to society. By comparison, the redesign of the circulation tax
can provide CO2 reductions which are not of a similar size, but nevertheless
significant, and without the similar adverse effects as those that result in the
registration tax scenario. Employment effects are less crucial in this case, and
thus there is less call for adjustments in the economy as a whole, as well as
from the perspective of the industry. In regard to the latter though, the redesign
of the circulation tax will imply that the Swedish car makes loose market shares
134
to other brands. Consequently, the industry might gain from adjustment to the
new tax conditions by means of e.g. development and marketing of new or
modified car models, and an enhanced effort in regard to marketing and sales.
While there is a net benefit to society from redesigning the circulation tax to
include a CO2 differentiated element, it is important to note that there will still
be distribution effects from such an initiative. Thus, rural population will suffer
the highest loss in welfare, and be affected relatively more by changes in the
tax burden compared to the rural population, and so will also families with
children compared to those without children. It should be noted that the similar
distribution effects will occur also in the case of the registration tax scenario,
but in that case the order of magnitude of the welfare loss and the tax burden
effect will be larger. The main reason is that people in rural areas tend to buy
larger, and less CO2 efficient cars and they tend to have a stronger preference
for the car, i.e. the price elasticity is smaller.
10.3
Policy implications
The analysis points to the following policy implications:
•
It would not be efficient to reduce CO2 emissions from the car fleet by
means of reducing the number of cars. The cost benefit analysis shows a
significant net cost in this case. This calls for the use of other means if the
aim is to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger car transport. The total
CO2 emissions from the car transport equals:
Total CO2 = number of cars * Km driven per car * average g CO2 per km
Thus, other means can seek to influence the annual mileage and/or the average emissions per car. The latter is the idea in the CO2 differentiation of
the circulation tax, which does not at all aim to influence the number of
cars. Another means, which has not been considered in this study, would
be to seek to control the annual mileage. This could be done by making it
relatively more expensive to drive the car. Taxes on vehicle fuels or road
pricing would be possible options in this case.
•
There is no special need for a registration tax if the wish is to shift demand
towards more energy efficient cars. In fact, adding a CO2 differentiated
element to the existing annual circulation tax seems more efficient both
with respect to CO2 reductions and with respect to the distortions caused
by the tax (the latter is illustrated in the cost benefit analysis).
•
Substantial reductions in total CO2 emissions in the order of 2-5% can be
achieved even if the level of downsizing is limited to 25%. However, it is
important to be aware that there is a limit to what can be achieved through
differentiation alone, even if the allowed level of downsizing is increased.
The level of 25% actually appears to capture quite a substantial fraction of
the potential reductions that can be harvested through differentiation.
135
•
If significantly higher reductions in the average CO2 emissions from new
cars are desired, there are two options to pursue this aim. Either, one must
allow the tax to become a net subsidy or one must accept a higher tax level
(also of the circulation tax). The latter implies that the result would also be
a drop in the size of the car fleet.
•
Increases of the tax level for new cars also leads to increases in the average
age of the car fleet, because car owners wait longer before they scrap their
old car. This leads to higher emissions. To avoid this effect it could be
considered to apply some other measure to speed up the scrapping of older
cars – a higher circulation tax for old cars or a scrap premium.
•
There are distributional effects from both the registration tax and the circulation tax scenario. They are however most outspoken for the registration
tax as a consequence of the decline in the fleet. Consequently, there may
be a need for compensating measures, in particular in the case of the registration tax. Thus, the registration tax scenario affects the population in rural areas and families with children more than the other car purchasers.
10.4
Applicability of study results
The "what if" approach that is inherent in the model implies that the model provides a fairly transparent means of analysing the effects of changes in the level
and structure of relevant fiscal measures.
In other words, the "what if" model based calculations provide a means of undertaking quite isolated analyses of the CO2 effectiveness of existing taxation
systems and fiscal measures scenarios. Results achieved from the calculations
can be (quite) directly related to the applied input data and to the assumptions
made. They are not affected by the inclusion of for example macro-economic
projections, modelling of future car production costs, fuel prices forecasts and
car pricing policies and modelling of future consumer car preferences.
This merit arises exactly because of the "what-if" nature of the model. However, the complementary feature of this approach is that the results of the model
can in no way be interpreted as projections of what would actually happen in
2020. In reality, actual developments will namely be affected by a number of
factors that are not taken into account in the model calculations. These factors
include, but are not limited to, the above mentioned issues.
11
137
References
DETR (2001): Final Report on the Factors that Influence Car Owners Decisions
when they Scrap Cars and HGV's
Directorate-General for Environmental Protection, the Netherlands (2001):
Study on the potential effects of possible fiscal measures to reduce CO2emissions from passenger cars in the Netherlands, Final Report, December
2001
Energy Research Programme (EFP), Denmark (1998): Personbilers energieffektivitet, muligheder for forbedring gennem afgiftstrukturen, November 1998.
EU Oil Bulletin Petrolier (2001): 10/12-01 (http://www.np.no/ "Fakta i Tal" ->
"International statistics"
European Commission's Directorate-General for Environment (2002): Fiscal
Measures to Reduce CO2 Emissions from New Passenger Cars, Main Report,
Forthcoming 2002
European Commission's Directorate-General for Environment (2002): Fiscal
Measures to Reduce CO2 Emissions from New Passenger Cars, Annex report:
Sweden, Forthcoming 2002
Johansson, Oluf and Lee Schipper (1997): “Measuring the long-run fuel demand of cars”, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, September, pp.
237-252
Jong, Gerard de et al (2001): Vehicle Scrappage, Literature Survey and new
Stated Preference Survey. Paper presented at the Association of European
Transport conference, Cambridge, 2001.
Ministry of Transport, Denmark (1997): Samfundsøkonomisk omkostningseffektivitet i transportsektoren, Arbejdspapir 1, Marts 1997
Ministry of Transport, Denmark (2000): TEAM2000, Et værktøj til at beregne
energiforbrug og emissioner i Danmark, Teknisk Rapport
138
Sandström, Mikael (1998): Ekonomiska styrmedel på vägtrafikområdet,
Rapport för trafikbeskattningsutredningen
SCB (1998): I/O table
SCB(2000): Lønstatistisk Årsbok 2000
SCB (2001): Statistical Yearbook, 2001
SIKA (2000): ASEK kalkylvärden i sammanfattning, Report 2000:3 (abridged
version of "Review of principles for social economic estimates and estimates in
the transport sector", SIKA Report 1999:6, Report 2000:3)
SIKA (2001): Fordon enligt bilregisteret fjärde kvartalet och hele året 2000,
Statistiska Meddelanda, 01:1
SIKA (2001): Polisrapporterade vägtrafikolyckor med personskada (Road
traffic accidents with personal injury reported by the police), Statistiska
Meddelanda, 01:7
VTI (1986): Personbilsinnehavet i Sverige 1950 - 2050, VTI rapport 301.
VTI (1993): Mål för nya personbilars genomsnittliga bränsleförbrukning. VTI
Rapport 386.
VTI (1995): Modeller och prognoser för regionalt bilinnehav i Sverige
VTI (2000): Bilismen i Sverige, 2000.
Annexes
Annex A 1
A. The Car Choice Model
The car choice model estimates the effect of a registration tax on CO2 emissions from new passenger cars. This is done by calculating the demand for new
passenger cars in Sweden and by comparing a base scenario with alternative
scenarios. The registration tax is used to alter the incentives that face each individual when he/she has to choose between different vehicles.
The car choice model consists of three sub models. The first sub model allocates the cars into private and company cars. Subsequently, the other two sub
models allocate the demand for each specific type of private and company car
respectively. In each sub model consumers’ choices are modelled under the assumption that they are economically rational and maximise their individual utility.
B.1
The choice between a private or a company car
The choice between buying a private or a company car is modelled by calculating the benefit of having a specific car as a company car relative to having it as
a private car. This is equivalent to modelling the cost of having the car as a private car minus the cost of having it as a company car. These costs (and hence
the choice) is closely linked to the taxation rules for acquisition and use of
company cars.
The first decision-problem facing each individual car buyer is illustrated in
Figure 11.1.
Figure 11.1
Decision tree for the choice between choosing a private or company car
With each alternative there is associated a utility function
Vi = β1*C1i + β2*C2i + ...+ εi
(Equation 1)
where Vi is the utility of alternative i (i = private or company car), the β’s are
parameters, C is a vector that contains characteristics of the car and ε is a stochastic error term.
The deterministic part contains the explanatory variables pertaining to the consumer and to the choice. The stochastic part of the utility function can be interpreted as representing the unobserved factors that influences the consumer's
utility of each alternative.
Annex A
2
The first choice facing each car buyer in the model is a discrete (binary) choice:
either he/she buys a company car or a private car. Therefore the choice is estimated by applying the logit model. The consumer is assumed to make the
choice associated with the highest utility. Since the utility function for each
choice contains an unknown stochastic component, the logit model states the
probability that a given choice is made. The probability for choosing a company car is based on the observed explanatory variables
P(companycar ) =
eV
eV + 1
(Equation 2)
The parameters for this model have been estimated based on data from Denmark 1997 and Germany 1999 – 2000 and the appropriate taxation rules in
these two countries.
After the estimation of the choice between a private and a company car the two
other sub models are invoked to determine the exact type of car bought by the
consumer.
B. 3
Private car choice model
The private car model allocates the total demand for private cars on specific
cars. The observable characteristics, which are the driving force in the private
car choice model are the following
•
•
•
•
•
Price of the car (inclusive tax and VAT)
Running cost (fuel and circulation tax)
Size of the car (length)
Luggage capacity
Acceleration
Furthermore the model include a “home-market” parameter to account for the
fact that consumers tends to choose cars produced in their own country, i.e.
Volvo or Saab.
The parameters (elasticities)36 in the private car choice model have been estimated based on a full-scale data set from all new registrations in Denmark in
1997. In order to mirror Swedish conditions and the Swedish socio economic
distribution Swedish parameters have been calibrated based on the estimated
Danish parameters.
The private car model has 45 “agents”. These agents differ with respect to family type, household income and age. Separate sub models have been estimated
for 24 types of car buyers, where the car buyers are not divided into different
age groups, cf. Table 11.1.
36
Parameter estimates and elasticities are not the same, but the size of the parameter estimates determines the size of the elasticities.
Annex A 3
Table 11.1 Car buyer family type and income in basic data
Single female
Single male
Female living with parents
Male living with parents
Couple without children (female buyer)
Couple without children (male buyer)
Couple with children (female buyer)
Couple with children (male buyer)
Total
Low
Income
2173
3044
747
3705
3618
11233
3618
3149
31287
Medium
income
6055
7148
632
2204
7901
22277
7901
22071
76189
High
income
109
180
21
69
707
1513
707
1419
4725
Total
8337
10372
1400
5978
12226
35023
12226
26639
112201
Furthermore, car buyers aged 18 to 29 have special preferences for acceleration. Therefore these individuals have their own parameter for acceleration.
The private consumer behaviour is modelled in a two-step procedure. It is assumed that individuals first determine what type (Estate, Hatchback, Saloon,
etc) of car he/she would like to buy. Then, secondly, individuals determine
what exact car (Volvo S70 2.5, Saab 9-5 2.0T, VW Polo 1.6i, etc) he/she wants,
given the choice of type, cf. Figure 11.2.37
Figure 11.2
Choice structure in a multinomial nested logit model
The illustrated choice structure is modelled by applying a nested logit model.
The nested logit model is also a discrete choice model, which in this case combines the probability of choosing a specific type of car with the probability of
choosing a specific car. The probability of choosing a given combination of
type and car is in the nested logit framework given as
P ( i, j ) = P ( j ) ∗ P ( i | j )
37
(Equation 3)
Each car has been allocated to one of nine different types of car: Cabriolet, Coupé, Estate, High Volume Estate, Mono High volume, Hatchback, MPV, Off-Road Vehicle, Roadster, Saloon or Targa.
Annex A
4
θ log
=
e
å
åe
i∈ J
θ log
e
j∈J
Vi
åe
i∈ J
Vi
*
eVi
å
i∈J
eVi
The parameters of the utility functions (the β’s) are estimated using maximum
likelihood. The summation is running over the index j, where j = Estate, Hatchback, Saloon, etc. and index i, where i = Volvo S70 2.5, Saab 9-5 2.0T, VW
Polo 1.6i, etc.
To estimate the parameters in the model each agent has been given a random
set of alternative cars to choose from (63 cars for each choice). The estimation
procedure then estimates the set of parameters to the utility functions that gives
the highest utility to the car that was actually chosen. The 63 car options differ
across consumers from a pool of more than 2000 specific cars
After the parameters are estimated it is straightforward to calculate the total
demand for each car by first calculating the probabilities of choosing a certain
car for each agent and then sum up across all individual probabilities for each
specific car.
B. 3
Company car model
The company car model allocates the total demand for company cars on specific cars. The observable characteristics, which are the driving force in the
company car choice model are the following
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cost of acquisition (Personal taxation rules)
Running cost (Personal taxation rules)
Size of the car (length)
Luggage capacity
Acceleration
Horse power
Furthermore, this sub model also includes a home market parameter to account
for the fact that consumers tends to choose cars produced in their own country.
As was the case for the private car choice model the parameter estimates from
the Danish company car model have also been compared with similar parameter estimates from a model based on data for 11 EU Member States for the period 1999 – 2000. Again, the comparison showed that the parameter estimates
(elasticities) from the Danish model are very close to the same parameter estimates from the EU model.
The company car model has 6 “agents” (companies). The model distinguish
between three aggregate sectors:
•
•
•
Annex A 5
Primary sector: Agriculture, fishery and manufacturing industries (NACE38
1 – 2)
Secondary sector: Energy and construction (NACE 3 – 4)
Tertiary sector: Service (NACE 5 – 9)
Each of these sectors is further divided into two, to take into account that a
company car choice generally is determined in two different ways depending
on the type of company:
•
•
Company where the company managers decide which car to offer to the
employee based on considerations regarding price and running cost.
Company where the employee decides which car to have based on considerations regarding his/her cost (benefit tax payments).
The company car model uses the same model approach as the private car choice
model, i.e. the probability of choosing a given car is estimated in a multinomial
logit model.39 However, for the company car sub model the choice is not modelled as a sequential choice as in the private car model. Instead both the type
and specific car is chosen in one single step, cf. Figure 11.3.
Figure 11.3
38
Choice structure in a multinomial logit model
Nomenclature generale des Activitiés économique dans les Communautes Européennes,
Industrial Classification Code prepared by EU in 1970 and adopted by all member states.
39
“Multinomial” because the consumer has many different choice options of which he/she
shall choose one. In a binary logit model (such as the model that determines whether the
consumer will buy a private or a company car) the consumer only has two options available.
Annex A
6
Annex B 1
B. Model validation
A series of tests has been carried out in order to validate the model and its use
in Sweden. The tests compare results from model based calculations with observed data in order to validate the ability of the model to calculate the actual
demand within a tolerable level of uncertainty.
The validation has considered the following three parameters:
•
•
•
Estimates of parameters (elasticities).
Levels of CO2 emissions
Registrations of new cars
Parameter estimates
The validity of the parameter estimates was tested at detailed level combining
demand data with car characteristics for Sweden. These tests showed that
Swedish car purchasers prefer larger cars than the average car purchaser in EU
(and Denmark).
To adjust for this difference the parameters (elasticities) in the model have been
adjusted as follows:
•
•
•
Car Price parameter reduced by 39%
Yearly cost parameter reduced by 9%
Car length parameter reduced by 29%
Furthermore, the model has been calibrated to fit the average company car
share (50%), diesel share (6.5%) and overall average CO2 emissions (198 g
CO2 per km)
CO2 emission levels
Figure 11.4 below show the results of the validation tests for average CO2
emissions. The calculations have been done separately for company cars and
private cars because of the difference in emission levels among these two
groups.
Annex B
2
Figure 11.4
Modelled CO2 emissions compared to observed CO2 emissions
g CO2 per km
250
200
150
100
50
0
Petrol
Model forecast, Private
Diesel
Observed
Model forecast, Company
As shown in Figure 11.4 the model calculates larger CO2 emissions from company cars relative to private cars. This correlates very well with the fact that
company vehicles generally tend to be larger than private cars. The observed
CO2 emission levels lie between the calculated level for company cars and the
calculated level for private cars. This applies both petrol and diesel, and is in
line with what could be expected.
In Sweden, company cars constituted 50% of the total number of registrations
of new cars in 2000.
The figure below shows the results of the validation tests for average engine
size.
Annex B 3
Figure 11.5 Validation tests for average engine size
Engine
capacity, ccm
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Petrol
Model forecast, Private
Diesel
Observed
Model forecast, Company
Both tests show good resemblance between the model forecast and what was
actually observed in the market in 1999/2000.
New car registrations
Figure 11.6, Figure 11.7 and Figure 11.8 show the results of the more detailed
validation tests. The figures compare model results with actual data for CO2
emission levels, engine size volumes and engine size classes respectively.
At the overall level, the number of registrations calculated by the model corresponds well with the observed data. However, there are also minor deviations
from the observed data that cannot be explained by the model. For example,
Figure 11.6 shows that the model calculates too few registrations in the region
of 210g CO2 per km. Such unexplained deviations are largely caused by country-specific preferences that the model cannot capture. However, the effects
from such country specific preferences are assessed to be minor in this study.
Annex B
4
Figure 11.6
Number of registrations as a function of CO2 emissions for petrol cars
(g per km)
Num ber of
registrations
25%
Forecast
20%
Demand
15%
10%
5%
0%
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
CO2
Figure 11.7
Number of registrations as a function of engine size volume (ccm) for
petrol cars
Num ber of
registrations
20%
Forecast
15%
Demand
10%
5%
0%
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
cm3
3000
3500
4000
Annex B 5
Figure 11.8
Number of registrations as a function of engine size class for petrol cars
Number of
registrations
40%
Forecast
30%
Demand
20%
10%
0%
1
2
3
4
5
Category
6
7
F
M
Annex B
6
C. Sensitivity Analysis Tables
Table 11.2 Scenario where the CO2 differentiation is 1,760 SEK per g CO2
CO2 diff 200
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
1
4,127,949
162,522
235
11,937,886
9.1
451
1,338
1,357,555
32.9%
195,821
4.7%
5
10
4,037,098
3,966,893
197,530
182,077
223
204
11,100,366
10,028,634
9.5
10.0
449
447
1,368
1,393
1,247,034
1,174,801
30.9%
29.6%
226,384
261,784
5.6%
6.6%
20
3,895,882
212,710
161
7,784,939
9.7
441
1,396
1,137,224
29.2%
252,585
6.5%
Table 11.3 Scenario where the petrol and diesel cars are merged in the estimation of
the tax function
Diesel and petrol merged
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
1
4,127,774
162,210
235
11,939,690
9.1
451
1,338
1,357,585
32.9%
196,770
4.8%
5
10
20
4,036,241
3,965,460 3,893,865
197,292
181,952
212,500
223
204
161
11,110,170
10,047,355 7,815,590
9.5
10.0
9.7
449
447
441
1,368
1,393
1,397
1,247,204
1,175,201 1,138,179
30.9%
29.6%
29.2%
231,734
272,577
273,340
5.7%
6.9%
7.0%
Table 11.4 Scenario where the scrap price elasticity is halved
Scrap 50%
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
1
4,127,178
170,606
235
11,931,287
9.0
451
1,338
1,356,863
32.9%
196,067
4.8%
5
10
4,035,914
3,967,476
202,434
183,906
222
203
11,080,853
10,009,457
9.3
9.7
449
447
1,370
1,395
1,246,330
1,175,964
30.9%
29.6%
227,773
263,392
5.6%
6.6%
20
3,898,688
217,701
160
7,759,368
9.4
441
1,398
1,143,907
29.3%
253,392
6.5%
Annex C
2
Table 11.5 Scenario where the phase-in of the price elasticity is speeded up
Speed up
1
4,106,747
141,605
235
11,888,423
9.1
451
1,337
1,351,460
32.9%
194,443
4.7%
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
5
10
3,968,639
3,901,696
191,639
184,894
223
204
10,947,838
9,888,138
9.6
10.0
449
447
1,368
1,393
1,227,772
1,157,447
30.9%
29.7%
221,931
257,496
5.6%
6.6%
20
3,871,659
209,192
161
7,744,423
9.7
441
1,397
1,133,933
29.3%
250,807
6.5%
Table 11.6 Scenario where the price elasticity is –0.35
Elasticity -0.35
1
4,138,447
173,306
235
11,963,834
9.1
451
1,338
1,360,789
32.9%
196,503
4.7%
Number of cars
New car sales
Average age
Average length (cm)
Average weight (kg)
5
10
4,086,097
4,046,208
206,407
187,053
222
203
11,217,971
10,214,199
9.4
9.9
449
446
1,368
1,393
1,262,341
1,199,978
30.9%
29.7%
229,565
266,887
5.6%
6.6%
20
4,005,725
220,217
161
8,019,502
9.7
441
1,397
1,173,099
29.3%
259,583
6.5%
Table 11.7 New car sales, details for various levels of downsizing
Base
Avearge CO2 emissions (g per km)
198
0
196
New registration tax
Downsizing
0.25
0.5
0.75
195
195
195
1
195
Average lifetime tax revenue (EURO per car)
Average size
Average Dieselshare
Average swedish car makes
10,936
3.70
0.07
0.30
13,134
3.69
0.06
0.30
13,094
3.66
0.06
0.29
13,117
3.64
0.07
0.29
13,203
3.63
0.07
0.29
13,309
3.62
0.07
0.29
Average registration tax (EURO per car)
Average Circulation tax (EURO per car per year)
Average dealers price, EURO excl. VAT
Average (lifetime) tax consists of
Registration tax
178
16,571
2,290
178
16,474
2,291
177
16,347
2,339
176
16,260
2,439
176
16,205
2,557
175
16,159
2,816
8,120
2,290
2,805
8,039
2,291
2,789
8,014
2,339
2,779
8,000
2,439
2,773
7,991
2,557
2,769
7,984
RAPPORT 5187
Koldioxidrelaterad
skatt på bilar
naturvårdsverket har till uppgift att utveckla styrmedel så
att miljömålen om en hållbar utveckling kan nås och Energimyndigheten att driva på utvecklingen för effektivare energianvändning och minskad klimatpåverkan. För att klimatmålet ska
kunna uppnås är det viktigt att minska utsläppen av koldioxid
från trafiken. Under 2001 har ett projekt om styrmedel för miljöanpassning av transporter genomförts.
Som ett delprojekt har COWI på Naturvårdsverkets och
Energimyndighetens uppdrag genomfört en studie om koldioxiddifferentierade fordons- och försäljningsskatter. Utgångspunkten
har varit att undersöka effekterna av att använda fordonsskatter
som medel för att reducera personbilars koldioxidutsläpp.
I studien analyseras konsekvenserna av två alternativ – att
omforma den befintliga fordonsskatten genom att inkludera en
koldioxidrelaterad del och att införa en försäljningsskatt.
Rapporten är skriven på engelska med en svensk sammanfattning.
De övriga rapporterna i projektet är System för bättre framkomlighet i stockholmsregionen, Ekonomiska styrmedel och
Vägavgifter – en kartläggning av svenska och internationella
erfarenheter.
isbn 91-620-5187-3
issn 0282-7298

Koldioxidrelaterad skatt på bilar Impacts from CO2 differentiated

Transcription

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