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 OCT. 22, 2014 1
OCT. 21, 2014
OCT. 22, 2014 • It’s CHEAPER than Christmas
• It’s just as FUN
• We get to wear COSTUMES
• Everyone loves a PET IN COSTUME
Halloween is not just for candy-­‐seeking toddlers and pre-­‐teens dressed as their favorite Frozen characters or perhaps Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (this year’s hottest kids costumes.) It is in its own right a full-­‐blown adult holiday—complete with haunted houses, zombie hayrides, and elaborate costumes. It has legitimately become an all-­‐
inclusive family holiday, with the retail sales numbers to support it. According to the NRF, Halloween is gaining momentum as one of the fastest growing consumer holidays in the US, with Halloween sales this year beginning as early as the first week of October. This year Halloween is expected to contribute $7.4 billion to retail sales, up more than 7% from last year. Let the hayrides and pumpkin carving begin! Halloween At-A-Glance
Halloween 2014 falls on a Friday, which could lead to stronger sales since both kids and adults will stay out later celebrating and could also buy more than one costume for multiple Halloween parties. According to NRF surveys conducted through Prosper Insights and Analytics: •
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67.4% of Americans surveyed are expected to buy Halloween costumes this year, the most in the survey’s 11 year history 39.1% started their Halloween shopping in September; 42.1% in the first two weeks of October $77.52, over $75.03 last year Halloween sales this year are expected to reach $7.4 billion, up slightly more than The average expected spend per person is 7% from $6.9 billion last year but down from the record $8 billion in 2012 Halloween sales have risen over 55% since 2005 1
OCT. 22, 2014 Figure 1. Halloween Spending Summary Planned Halloween Spending ($B) Source: NRF Retail Insights
Figure 2. Adults 18+: Combined Average $79.82
$80.00
$77.52
$75.03
$72.31
$70.00
$66.54
$64.82
$60.00
$50.00
Sep-07
Sep-08
$66.28
$56.31
Sep-09
Sep-10
Source: NRF Retail Insights
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Halloween on a Friday
A Friday Halloween "is the best possible time for Halloween to fall," says Richard Parrott, president of retailer Ricky's NYC, a popular accessories, costume, makeup and hair product store which sells a large range of Halloween costumes and accessories each year. Halloween sales are generally stronger when the holiday falls on a Friday because more people will make plans to go out and will also potentially need a second costume for multiple holiday parties. “Retailers can expect increased web and in-­‐store traffic in the weekdays leading up to the big night,” according to the NRF’s CEO, Matthew Shay in a September 30 press release. 2
OCT. 22, 2014 Pop-up stores are booming
Spirit Halloween, which operates 1,100 temporary stores in North America, has stated that some of their stores opened as early as mid-­‐August this year and more opened over Labor Day weekend, with approximately 95% of its stores open by the end of September. Other pop-­‐up stores such as Halloween City, a division of Party City, are becoming yearly events, with some Halloween stores staying open all year round to cater to birthdays and other specialty parties. In 2013 the number of Halloween pop-­‐up stores reached 1,706, a 30% increase over four years, according to IBIS World. They’re also staying open after the holiday to unload discounted items. What are people buying this year?
• Decorations The NRF has projected the average per person Halloween spend to be $77.52 this year, up 60% from 2005. According to a recent statement from Kathy Grannis at the NRF, technological advances in animated decoration items have helped fuel Halloween sales. Decorations that steam, laugh, light up, jump, make sudden movements, and have other motion-­‐sensor triggered activities will be the go-­‐to decorations. The NRF projects that sales for decorations alone will hit $2 billion this year. • Costumes Nearly 75 million adults will dress up this Halloween. Americans are expected to spend $2.8 billion this year on Halloween costumes – $1 billion on kids costumes, $1.4 billion on adult costumes and $350 million on pet costumes. 3
OCT. 22, 2014 • Pet costumes In 2010, consumers said they would spend a total of $220 million on pet costumes. This year the NRF expects that number to reach $350 million. Walmart has stated that pet costumes are their fastest growing costume category. About 23 million people plan to dress up their pets, with the top three most popular pet costume choices being pumpkin, hot dog and devil. It is interesting (and a bit disturbing!) to note that the traditional “sexy” Halloween costumes—generally reserved for women and always extremely risque—are starting to infiltrate the world of pet costumes. Yes, you can even have a “sexy Chihuahua”, complete with a fake busty chest. • Candy and greeting cards You can never have too much candy for Halloween, because you never know how many neighbor kids might knock on your door. Consumers will spend $2.2 billion on candy this year, and 35.9% of people will send Halloween greeting cards. Topping the list of planned Halloween activities is handing out candy (71.1%), decorating homes and yards (46.7%), and dressing in costume (45.8%). One-­‐third of Americans will throw or attend a party (33.4%), which is up from last year (30.9%). Costume Inspiration
For kids, it’s easy—the latest Disney character, superhero or princess is a no-­‐brainer. Most Americans decide what costume they want to wear by looking online (34.2%) or in a retail store or costume shop (33.0%). Pinterest is becoming another regular source of costume inspiration. The NRF’s Halloween survey found that 11.4% of Americans will check out Pinterest for costume ideas, up from 9.3% last year. Most Pinterest costume seekers will be young—21.2% of 18-­‐24 year olds and 21% of 25-­‐34 year olds. In mid-­‐October, Target launched a do-­‐it-­‐yourself Instagram effort to promote holiday-­‐
themed ideas for decorations, recipes and other activities. Spirit Halloween has do-­‐it-­‐
yourself costumes as one of the top 10 costume trends, with themes focused around harlequin, burlesque, punk and leopard. 4
OCT. 22, 2014 Favorite Costumes
Disney’s Frozen and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles are anticipated to be some of the most popular kids costumes this year, with 2.6 million kids sporting their favorite Frozen character, and 1.8 million dressing up as a Ninja Turtle character. About 75 million adults will dress up, with the most popular adult costumes including witch, animal, Batman and pirate. Spirit Halloween’s list of top 10 costume trends this season • Disney’s Frozen characters Elsa, Anna and Olaf • Disney princesses such as Ariel, Rapunzel, Merida and Snow White • Nostalgic characters such as Dr. Seuss’ Cat in the Hat and Where’s Waldo • Official Game of Thrones (only at Spirit) • Official The Walking Dead (only at Spirit) • Superheroes including Batman, Captain America, Spiderman and Transformers • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles • Day of the Dead • Outrageous Halloween men’s suits • Do-­‐it-­‐yourself costumes with themes around harlequin, burlesque, punk and leopard Will Halloween sales affect Christmas sales?
The majority of retail intelligence companies such as the NRF, ICSC and FBIC anticipate a better retail holiday this year than last year. Higher sales means good news for retailers—but could stronger Halloween sales start to compete with traditional holiday dollars, potentially hurting Christmas sales? This year holiday sales (sales in November/December, which excludes Halloween) have had competition not only from a stronger Halloween “season”, but also from high-­‐ticket trending items such as the iPhone 6. While Halloween spending is forecasted to top $7.4 billion, it is still only a fraction of the $619 billion that shoppers are expected to spend this winter holiday. However, factors such as an influx of new Hollywood superhero films and a broader acceptance of and participation in comic book world and cosplay events (such as ComicCon) have the potential to disrupt traditional sales, and the smart retailer would be remiss not to notice. 5
OCT. 22, 2014 The Economy
For some Americans the US economy is still one of the top deciding factors in how they spend during the holidays. We looked at Shop.org’s Halloween Consumer Online Shopping Outlook (which compares online shoppers and Adults 18+; we are using stats from Adults 18+ for this report). Of respondents, 18.8% say the state of the US economy will impact their Halloween spending plans, notably down from 25% last year. Of those whose spending has been negatively affected by economic concerns, 19.7% will make their own costume or perhaps re-­‐use old costumes, rather than buying a new one this Halloween. In line with economic concerns, half of Halloween celebrants will shop at discounters such as Walmart, K-­‐Mart and Target, where consumers will get more bang for their buck and can buy their favorite Disney, DC and Marvel character costume for a fraction of the cost of a regular costume store. (In fact, stores such as Walmart are offering Halloween sales on across-­‐the-­‐board items, much like Christmas promotions.) Costume shops such as Party City will attract about one third of shoppers. As with other holiday retail this year, the key for attracting the consumer this Halloween will prove to be discounts and savings.
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