The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market

The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market

The Regional Breakdown of the
Online Poker Market
Ingo Fiedler & Ann-Christin Wilcke
Funded by the city of Hamburg
8th European Conference on
Gambling Studies and Policy Issues
16th September 2010
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
Introduction
•
•
•
•
•
•
Online poker market operates in a gray area
Turnover 2009: 2.4 billion $
Where does the money come from?
How many active players come from which country?
Do inter- and intra-country differences exist?
What are the parameters influencing the player fraction in
a population?
• What are the playing habits of poker players?
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
2
Data Set
• Online poker is a goldmine for data mining
• Data collection in corporation with PokerScout
(independent market investigator)
6 months
5 poker sites (65% market share)
4.6 million player identities
Origion (country or city)
Limits played
Session lenghts
Number of tables
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
3
Limitations of the Data Set
•
•
•
•
•
Only cash games (no tournaments)
Not all sites accept US-players
Non-identified origin of some player identities
Potential false information
92% successful assignement of cities to regions and
countries
• One player identity ≠ one player (multiple accounts)
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
4
The Online Poker Market
2009a
2010b
Data
collection?
Players
(Ø 7 days)
Market
share
Players
(Ø 7 days)
Market
share
Pokerstars
22,000
35.07%
29,200
40.20%
Yes
Full Tilt Poker
12,000
19.13%
14,600
20.10%
Yes
iPoker Network
5,900
9.41%
5,900
5.99%
No
Party Poker
5,300
8.45%
4,400
6.06%
No
Cereus Network
2,300
3.67%
1,960
3.67%
No
Everest Poker
2,050
3.27%
2,100
2.89%
Yes
Microgaming
1,980
3.16%
2,000
2.75%
No
IPN (Boss Media)
1,920
3.06%
2,250
3.10%
Yes
Cake Poker Network
1,580
2.52%
1,300
1.79%
Yes
Ongame (bwin)
1,260
2.01%
2,650
3.65%
No
Others
6,450
10.25%
7,250
9.80%
No
Total
62,720
100%
73,610
100%
Poker site
a:
b:
18th June 2009, www.pokerscout.com.
11th May 2010, www.pokerscout.com.
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
5
Players per Country
Rank
Country
1
USA
2
Observed player Extrapolated identities Extrapolated active
identities
whole market
poker players
Market
share
1,315,953
1,489,659
1,266,210
21.09%
Germany
347,903
535,235
454,950
7.58%
3
France
266,820
410,492
348,918
5.81%
4
Russia
240,394
369,837
314,361
5.24%
5
Canada
207,043
318,528
270,749
4.51%
6
UK
161,128
247,889
210,706
3.51%
7
Spain
151,431
232,971
198,025
3.30%
8
Netherlands
143,446
220,686
187,583
3.12%
9
Brazil
92,093
141,682
120,429
2.01%
10
Australia
77,626
119,425
101,511
1.69%
11
Hungary
73,298
112,766
95,851
1.60%
Others
991,676
1,525,655
1,296,807
21.60%
Non identified
522,531
803,894
683,310
11.38%
4,591,342
6,528,719
5,549,411
100%
Total
On average every player loses 432 USD per year.
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
6
Player Fraction in a Population
Rank
1
Country
Active poker players
Population
Players/population
Denmark
70,848
5,515,575
1.285%
2
Iceland
3,910
308,910
1.266%
3
Estonia
15,035
1,291,170
1.164%
4
Netherlands
187,583
16,783,092
1.118%
5
Norway
50,503
4,676,305
1.080%
6
Finland
55,988
5,255,695
1.065%
7
Sweden
80,083
9,074,055
0.883%
8
Canada
270,749
33,759,742
0.802%
9
Luxembourg
3,720
497,538
0.748%
10
Slovenia
14,790
2,003,136
0.738%
14
Germany
454,950
82,282,988
0.553%
15
Austria
45.234
8.214.160
0,551%
19
Australia
101,511
21,262,641
0.477%
25
USA
1,266,210
310,232,863
0.408%
27
UK
210,706
62,348,447
0.338%
5,549,411
6,842,454,978
0.081%
Total
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
7
Players per Internet User
Rank
Country
Active poker players
Internet user
Players/internet users
1
Hungary
95,851
6,176,400
1.552%
2
Estonia
15,035
969,700
1.550%
3
Portugal
78,316
5,168,800
1.515%
4
Denmark
70,848
4,750,500
1.491%
5
Iceland
3,910
301,600
1.296%
6
Cyprus
5,044
433,800
1.163%
7
Netherlands
187,583
14,872,200
1.261%
8
Finland
55,988
4,480,900
1.249%
9
Norway
50,503
4,431,100
1.140%
10
Slovenia
14,790
1,298,500
1.139%
12
Canada
270,749
26,224,900
1.032%
21
Austria
45,234
6,143,600
0.736%
22
Germany
454,950
64,123,800
0.709%
28
Australia
101,511
17,033,826
0.596%
1,266,210
239,893,600
0.528%
5,549,411
1,965,162,316
0.282%
29
Total
USA
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
8
Player Fraction in the Federal States of
the USA
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
9
Situation in Germany
Federal State
Population
Observed
player
identities
Germany total
82,002,356
216,520
454,950
100%
0.55%
1.00%
1,772,100
8,737
18,358
4.04%
1.04%
1.87
661,866
2,862
6,014
1.32%
0.91%
1.64
3,431,675
13,768
28,929
6.36%
0.84%
1.52
17,933,064
58,212
122,315
26.89%
0.68%
1.23
Schleswig-Holstein
2,834,260
8,627
18,127
3.98%
0.64%
1.15
Saarland
1,030,324
2,933
6,163
1.35%
0.60%
1.08
Niedersachsen
7,947,244
21,155
44,451
9.77%
0.56%
1.01
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
1,664,356
4,140
8,699
1.91%
0.52%
0.94
Hessen
6,064,953
14,786
31,068
6.83%
0.51%
0.92
Rheinland-Pfalz
4,028,351
9,364
19,676
4.32%
0.49%
0.88
Bayern
12,519,728
28,107
59,058
12.98%
0.47%
0.85
Baden-Württemberg
10,749,506
23,186
48,718
10.71%
0.45%
0.82
Sachsen
4,192,801
7,982
16,772
3.69%
0.40%
0.72
Brandenburg
2,522,493
4,795
10,075
2.21%
0.40%
0.72
Thüringen
2,267,763
3,947
8,293
1.82%
0.37%
0.66
Sachsen-Anhalt
2,381,872
3,919
8,235
1.81%
0.35%
0.62
Hamburg
Bremen
Berlin
Nordrhein-Westfalen
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
Extrapolated
players
Player
Players/popu
fraction
lation
federal state
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
Proportion
region to
country
10
Factors Influencing the Player Fraction in
a Population: GDP per capita
• Only countries with more than 100,000 internet users
Sample (n=158)
Variable
Constant
GDP per capita in th. USD
Regressionscoefficient
t-value
Significance
0,150
0,009
4,116
5,815
0,000
0,000
R²=0,178; adjusted R²=0,173; F-value=33,812 (p=0,000)
• Player fraction per internet users +0.009 percentage
points if GDP per capita +1,000 USD.
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
11
Factors Influencing the Player Fraction in
a Population: Culture
•
•
•
•
•
Only countries with more than 100,000 internet users
GDP per capita to control effect of culture
R²= 50.06%
F-Value Culture 14.229 (p<0.001), F-Value GPD per capita 12.987
Sample (n=161)
(p<0.001)
Culture
N
Mean
Standard
deviation
Western
Orthodox
Islamic
African
Latin American
Sinic
Hindu
Buddhist
47
13
41
23
20
6
5
6
0.638
0.450
0.076
0.079
0.185
0.019
0.112
0.128
0.452
0.326
0.108
0.059
0.100
0.018
0.196
0.157
Total
161
0.289
0.369
Direction of effect confirmed by Turkey-Test (compares mean
values)
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
12
Factors Influencing the Player Fraction in
a Population: Law & Order
• Regression Analysis 1:
15 Countries
GDP per capita to control effect of legislation
Prohibition of online poker = 0
Online poker unprohibited = 1
No significant effect of legislation
• Regression Analysis 2:
15 Countries
GDP per capita to control effect of legislation
Prohibition of online poker + regulation of cash flows= 0
Online Poker unprohibited or not enforced prohibition = 1
No significant effect of legislation
• Interpretation: Presently, prohibition of online poker is not
enforced
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
13
Factors Influencing the Player Fraction in
a Population: Age structure?
• Most players are between 18 and 35 years old
From a non-representative survey among pokerstrategy.deusers
Used as an indicator?
• Player fraction in relation to 18-35 year olds?
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
14
Market Share of Poker Sites in Countries
(of the whole market not the sample)
Rank
Country
Market share IPN
(Boss Media)
Market share
Everest Poker
Market share
Full Tilt Poker
Market share Market share
Cake Poker
Pokerstars
0%
0%
42.01%
8.14%
38.25%
1
USA
2
Germany
2.28%
3.47%
18.80%
1.06%
39.39%
3
France
12.54%
11.90%
13.94%
0.42%
26.20%
4
Russia
0.80%
0.03%
18.36%
5.74%
40.06%
5
Canada
0.60%
0.40%
29.17%
2.23%
32.60%
6
UK
4.22%
0.22%
23.22%
2.62%
34.73%
7
Spain
9.72%
0.94%
7.61%
0.45%
46.28%
8
Netherlands
0.71%
3.88%
12.51%
1.29%
46.61%
9
Brazil
1.76%
2.12%
16.49%
1.19%
43.44%
10
Australia
0.36%
0.18%
27.49%
1.73%
35.24%
3.74%
3.90%
19.66%
3.31%
34.39%
Total
• Market share in active player identities has to be adjusted
by playing habits (frequency, intensity, session length)
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
15
Add on: Playing habits
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
Playing habits: Overall
IPN Boss
Media
Everest
Poker
Full Tilt Poker
Cake Poker
Pokerstars
Player Identities
264,394
275,494
1,388,483
233,580
2,429,347
Player Identities in %
5.76%
6%
30.24%
5.09%
52.91%
Total time played in h
5,161,670
6,535,372
?
4,034,444
?
Average time played in
hours per player
19,53
23,72
?
17,27
?
Number of Sessions
5,030,129
6,110,816
?
4,063,332
?
Average number of
sessions per player
19.03
22.18
?
17.40
?
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
17
Playing habits: Session Length
IPN Boss Media
Everest Poker
Cake Poker
Average session length in
minutes
61.57
64.17
59.57
Median session length in
minutes
40
42
40
Standard deviation session
length in min.*
67.88
69.18
66.66
Top 5% session lengths in min.
189
191
181
Maximum session length in
hours
31,98
41,98
36,31
Interquartil range session length
in min.
60
63
59
*: Session time is not normally distributed (Kurtosis > 300,000).
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
18
Playing habits: Multitabling
•
Multitabling:= Playing more than one table at the same time
Average number of
tables played
Median number of
tables played
Standard deviation of
tables played*
Maximum number of
tables played
Top 5% number of
tables played
IPN Boss
Media
Everest
Poker
Full Tilt Poker
Cake Poker
Pokerstars
2,08
2,43
2,66
2,14
3,12
?
?
?
?
?
2,08
2,331
2,764
2,479
4,243
44
25
27
98
74
?
?
?
?
?
*: Number of tables is not normally distributed (Kurtosis > 100,000).
•
•
Most people do not play much, but some play excessively
Estimation: 5%-10% account for more than half of the playing
volume (to be tested)
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
19
Summary
• Huge data set gathered
• First time the poker market can be broken down to
countries and regions
• Many possibilities for data analysis
• GDP and culture have a huge impact on the fraction of
active online poker players in a population
• Enforcement of poker prohibition is not strong enough to
yield a significant effect
• Some people play excessively
• More results on playing habits will be availible soon
Limits played
Inter- and intra-country differences
Factors influencing inter- and intra-country differences
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research
The Regional Breakdown of the Online Poker Market
Vienna 2010
20
Thank you for your kind attention!
Do you want to know how many active
players are from your country or region?
Contact us:
[email protected]
[email protected]
University of Hamburg
Institute of Law & Economics
Gambling Research