presentation

Let's understand how the world functions
Leonie Wenz, Sven Willner,
Robert Bierkandt, Anders Levermann
re:publica 2014, Berlin
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Picture: myownworldnews.wordpress.com
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“ I found a flaw in my opinion of how the world functions.”
- Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan on the 2008 credit crisis
Picture: myownworldnews.wordpress.com
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you asked me how all that could happen, I have to
“ When
say that we are not smart enough - as people - to foresee
”
such a long time period to know what can happen...
- Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan on the 2008 credit crisis
Picture: myownworldnews.wordpress.com
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The world is warming …
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The world is warming …
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… and extremes
will increase
…
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Snowfalls, Germany, 2010/11
Typhoon Haiyan, Philippines, 2013
Drought, India, 2013
Bushfires, Australia, 2009
Monsoon, Pakistan, 2010/11
Floods, Middle-Europe, 2013
Pictures: Getty Images (MailOnline), Thomas Schoch, Khalid Tanveer/AP, asian.news.it, Harald Weber, Eoghan Rice-Trócaire / Caritas
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Typhoon Haiyan, Philippines, 2013
Pictures: Getty Images (MailOnline), Thomas Schoch, Khalid Tanveer/AP, asian.news.it, Harald Weber, Eoghan Rice-Trócaire / Caritas
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Floods, Middle-Europe, 2013
Pictures: Getty Images (MailOnline), Thomas Schoch, Khalid Tanveer/AP, asian.news.it, Harald Weber, Eoghan Rice-Trócaire / Caritas
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Drought, India, 2013
Pictures: Getty Images (MailOnline), Thomas Schoch, Khalid Tanveer/AP, asian.news.it, Harald Weber, Eoghan Rice-Trócaire / Caritas
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Monsoon, Pakistan, 2010/11
Pictures: Getty Images (MailOnline), Thomas Schoch, Khalid Tanveer/AP, asian.news.it, Harald Weber, Eoghan Rice-Trócaire / Caritas
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Snowfalls, Germany, 2010/11
Pictures: Getty Images (MailOnline), Thomas Schoch, Khalid Tanveer/AP, asian.news.it, Harald Weber, Eoghan Rice-Trócaire / Caritas
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Bushfires, Australia, 2009
Pictures: Getty Images (MailOnline), Thomas Schoch, Khalid Tanveer/AP, asian.news.it, Harald Weber, Eoghan Rice-Trócaire / Caritas
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“
The abnormal is the new
normal. This year we have
seen
Manhattan
and
Beijing
under
water,
hundreds of thousands of
people washed from their
homes in Colombia, Peru,
the Philippines, Australia.
”
Ban Ki-moon
Dec., 3rd, 2012
Picture: Getty
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… and no one knows the consequences!
Pictures: brightsideofnews.com, Pedro Costa/AFP/Getty, bloomsberg, www.ketknbc.com/news/corn-up-price-of-food-soon-to-follow, maximumpc.com
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… and no one knows the consequences!
Flooding, Thailand, 2011
Pictures: brightsideofnews.com, Pedro Costa/AFP/Getty, bloomsberg, www.ketknbc.com/news/corn-up-price-of-food-soon-to-follow, maximumpc.com
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… and no one knows the consequences!
Hard Disk Shortage
Flooding, Thailand, 2011
Pictures: brightsideofnews.com, Pedro Costa/AFP/Getty, bloomsberg, www.ketknbc.com/news/corn-up-price-of-food-soon-to-follow, maximumpc.com
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… and no one knows the consequences!
Drought, Russia, China, Ukraine, 2010
Hard Disk Shortage
Flooding, Thailand, 2011
Pictures: brightsideofnews.com, Pedro Costa/AFP/Getty, bloomsberg, www.ketknbc.com/news/corn-up-price-of-food-soon-to-follow, maximumpc.com
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… and no one knows the consequences!
Drought, Russia, China, Ukraine, 2010
Hard Disk Shortage
Crop Price Rise
Flooding, Thailand, 2011
Pictures: brightsideofnews.com, Pedro Costa/AFP/Getty, bloomsberg, www.ketknbc.com/news/corn-up-price-of-food-soon-to-follow, maximumpc.com
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… and no one knows the consequences!
Drought, Russia, China, Ukraine, 2010
Hard Disk Shortage
Crop Price Rise
Flooding, Thailand, 2011
Arab Spring, 2011
Pictures: brightsideofnews.com, Pedro Costa/AFP/Getty, bloomsberg, www.ketknbc.com/news/corn-up-price-of-food-soon-to-follow, maximumpc.com
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… and no one knows the consequences!
Drought, Russia, China, Ukraine, 2010
Hard Disk Shortage
Crop Price Rise
Flooding, Thailand, 2011
globalization of
local events
Arab Spring, 2011
Pictures: brightsideofnews.com, Pedro Costa/AFP/Getty, bloomsberg, www.ketknbc.com/news/corn-up-price-of-food-soon-to-follow, maximumpc.com
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Global supply network
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Global supply network
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Global supply network
Example: Bed sheet supply chain
Picture: libguides.rutgers.edu
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Agent-based modelling approach
… towards a dynamical understanding of the global supply
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Agent-based modelling approach
acclimate
… towards a dynamical understanding of the global supply
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Agent-based modelling approach
acclimate
Production sites
… towards a dynamical understanding of the global supply
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Agent-based modelling approach
acclimate
Production sites
Economic flows
… towards a dynamical understanding of the global supply
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Agent-based modelling approach
acclimate
Production sites
Economic flows
X
… towards a dynamical understanding of the global supply
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Agent-based modelling approach
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Mi
o.
U
S
acclimate
$
X
… towards a dynamical understanding of the global supply
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Agent-based modelling approach
50
Mi
o.
U
S
acclimate
$
X
7 Mio. US
$
… towards a dynamical understanding of the global supply
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Agent-based modelling approach
acclimate
50
Mi
o.
U
S
Data required …
… lots of data!
$
X
7 Mio. US
$
… towards a dynamical understanding of the global supply
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zeean [ziːn]
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zeean [ziːn]
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zeean [ziːn]
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zeean.net
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Open community
*
Citizens
Scientists
(Raw) Data
Analysis tools
Stories & Scenarios
* Lenzen M, Kanemoto K, Moran D, Geschke A (2012) Mapping the
structure
zeean
(
)
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Inputs
zeean
Single entries
Table entries
{
GDP
Imports / Exports
Economic flows
UN Comtrade
Statistical agencies
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Features
Data approximation
User levels
Gamification
User forum
Analysis tools
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Features
Data approximation
User levels
Gamification
User forum
Analysis tools
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Features
Data approximation
User levels
Gamification
User forum
Analysis tools
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Features
Data approximation
User levels
Gamification
User forum
Analysis tools
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Features
Data approximation
User levels
Gamification
User forum
Analysis tools
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Global Adaptive Pressure
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Global Adaptive Pressure
Damage: 1
Damage: 1
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Global Adaptive Pressure
Damage: 1
1
1
3
4
Damage: 1
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Global Adaptive Pressure
Damage: 1
1
1
3
4
Damage: 1
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Global Adaptive Pressure
Damage: 1
1
1
3
4
1st order
2nd order
Damage: 1
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e.g. Typhoon Haiyan 2013
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Vision
Equity
Adaptation
Sustainability
Exploring the future
zeean
Pictures: DahmsTierleben.de, Marisol Grandon/Department for International Development, Lali Masriera
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Questions?
Suggestions?
Feedback?
[email protected]
Spread the word!
@zeeanit
Thank you!
zeean.net
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