The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and Audience Attitude
Transcription
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and Audience Attitude
Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 DOI 10.1007/s11109-008-9064-y ORIGINAL PAPER The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and Audience Attitude Change During the 2004 Party Conventions Jonathan S. Morris Published online: 6 May 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2008 Abstract The intention of this analysis is to examine The Daily Show with Jon Stewart’s coverage of politics and assess the persuasive power of the program’s unique brand of humor. Evidence from a content analysis of The Daily Show’s ‘‘Indecision 2004’’ coverage of the Democratic and Republican Party Conventions shows the program’s humor was much harsher during the Republican Convention than it was during the Democratic Convention. While the humor in both conventions was heavily based on self-deprecation and the exploitation of conventional political stereotypes, the ridicule of Republicans focused much more on policy and character flaws. Humor pointed toward Democrats, on the other hand, tended to focus more on innocuous physical attributes. Analysis of panel data collected by the National Annenberg Election Survey during the 2004 national party conventions shows that exposure to The Daily Show’s convention coverage was associated with increased negativity toward President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney. These relationships remain significant even when controlling for partisan identification and ideology. Attitudes toward the Democratic ticket, John Kerry and John Edwards remained consistent. Keywords Humor American politics Jon Stewart The Daily Show 2004 party conventions In recent years, there has been an explosion of research examining the effects of late-night comedy on public attitudes toward politics (see Baum 2002, 2003, 2005; Brewer and Cao 2006; Hollander 2005; Moy et al. 2005; Young 2006; Young 2004a; Young and Tisinger 2006). This research has grown as scholars have noted that the line between entertainment and politics is becoming increasingly blurred J. S. Morris (&) Department of Political Science, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA e-mail: [email protected] 123 80 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 (Davis and Owen 1998; Fox and Van Sickel 2001). It has been found that politicians use late-night comedy programs as a strategic tool to sway potential voters (Baum 2005), and evidence indicates that these programs have the potential to educate viewers about politics and stimulate political interest among those who may otherwise be disengaged from the political process (Baum 2002, 2003a, 2003b; Brewer and Cao 2006; Jones 2005; Young and Tisinger 2006). More than any other late-night source of political comedy, The Daily Show with Jon Stewart is gaining increased attention from political communication scholars (see Baumgarter and Morris 2006; Baym 2005; Holbert et al. 2007; Jones 2005; Morris and Baumgartner 2008; Young 2008; Young and Tisinger 2006). Overall, the consensus of this research is that The Daily Show does have the potential to influence political discourse as well as overall attitudes. Some researchers have suggested that the show’s poignant criticisms of the modern news media have pioneered new avenues of political journalism in America (Baym 2005; Jones 2005; Young 2008). Others have found that The Daily Show contributes positively to the democratic process by sparking political interest among portions of the American public that would otherwise be estranged from politics and government (Baum 2003; Young and Tisinger 2006). Findings have also shown that regular Daily Show watchers have high levels of political knowledge and sophistication—even higher than frequent viewers of hard news (National Annenberg Election Survey 2004). Still others have uncovered evidence to suggest that The Daily Show’s sharp satire against all things political may foster higher levels of cynicism among an alreadycynical population of young adults (Baumgartner and Morris 2006). Jon Stewart’s notoriety has transcended the simple label of ‘‘comedian,’’ to that of newsmaker, news reporter, and popular culture icon. On The Daily Show, Stewart has interviewed foreign heads of state, Nobel Prize winners, presidential candidates, and former Presidents of the United States. In 2005, a Harris Poll found that Jon Stewart was the second-most popular personality on television—second only to Oprah Winfrey (Hoffman 2006). Also in 2005, Stewart was named among Time magazine’s 100 most powerful entertainers on the planet (Hoffman 2005). His ‘‘mock’’ American government textbook, America (the book): A Citizen’s Guide to Democracy Inaction (2004), was a bestseller. Similar to other late night comics such as David Letterman and Jay Leno, Stewart has tended to be more critical of politicians in power. Unlike his late-night counterparts, however, Stewart’s show is strongly political in nature. Also, Stewart’s own partisan leanings have not been kept in the dark, and he does not make claims of political neutrality. During the 2004 presidential campaign, Stewart publicly announced his intention to vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry (Garofoli 2004), and media writer Howard Kurtz of the Washington Post noted during the campaign that, ‘‘…Stewart relentlessly mock[s] Bush while just poking gentle fun at Kerry’s ponderous speaking style’’ (Kurtz 2004). Outside of the electoral context, Stewart’s satire has clearly articulated support for more liberal policy positions such as universal health care, support for homosexual rights, a reversal of tax-breaks for the wealthy, and a military withdraw from Iraq. It is this clarity of Stewart’s political views that make him unique from his late night talkshow contemporaries. 123 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 81 What if The Daily Show and Jon Stewart are friendlier toward Democrats and more critical of Republicans? Why should such a tendency be considered significant? The program is a half-hour, entertainment-based, talk show that openly mocks its own credibility as ‘‘fake news.’’ Perhaps, then, the trend should not matter. Stewart himself has made the case that he should not be taken seriously as a news provider or commentator (see Young and Tisinger 2006, p. 115). He has frequently argued that his program’s only purpose is to amuse its writers and its audience. When asked about the influence of The Daily Show, Stewart once commented: ‘‘There’s no threat—we have no power—so of course it’s fun to watch… It scratches an itch, but it also makes no dent’’ (Folkenflik 2003). In an infamous altercation on CNN’s Crossfire, conservative host Tucker Carlson chided Stewart for being too soft on the left. Stewart replied by pointing out to Carlson, ‘‘The show that leads into me [on Comedy Central] is puppets making crank phone calls’’ (Cable News Network 2004). The reality, however, is that Jon Stewart and The Daily Show are taken seriously by journalists, public officials, political candidates, and viewers. Web satirist Ana Marie Cox noted, ‘‘To say his [show] is just a comedy show is a cop-out in a way. He’s gotten so much power’’ (Kurtz 2004). In 2004, Stewart was on the cover on Newsweek and was cited as one of the more influential figures in the presidential election. As of 2006, almost one in five Americans (21%) reported watching The Daily Show at least sometimes, which is a significant increase from 12% in 2002 (Pew Research Center 2006). When looking at adults under 30—who are less likely to follow traditional sources of news—this number increases to 34%. There is also evidence that a significant portion of the public does learn about politics from The Daily Show and other late-night comedy programs. For example, 26% of Americans reported learning something about the 2004 presidential campaign from comedy shows like The Daily Show and Saturday Night Live (Pew Research Center 2004a). Among young adults age 18–24, this percentage more than doubles to 56%. Furthermore, research has found that even small levels of exposure to The Daily Show’s coverage of politics and government in an experimental environment can influence political attitudes toward candidates and institutions, especially during elections (Baumgartner and Morris 2006). With these points in mind I pursue an empirical examination of The Daily Show’s tendency to point its satire more sharply at Republicans than Democrats. I begin by developing a theory of how Jon Stewart’s brand of humor has strong persuasive power. I then analyze The Daily Show’s coverage of the 2004 party conventions and illustrate that its satire during the Republican Convention was much sharper than during the Democratic Convention. Finally, I rely on panel data collected during the conventions to illustrate that exposure to The Daily Show during the time of the Republican Convention was associated with increased disapproval for President Bush and Vice President Cheney. The Daily Show and Political Persuasion The number of programming options available on television has grown dramatically in the last decade and a half. The consequence is that television news providers 123 82 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 confront increased competition to create products that provide news which is both entertaining and informative (Bennett 2007; West 2001). The Daily Show, however, has thrived in this infotainment environment because it provides compelling entertainment combined with tidbits of news on politics. When attention is divided among competing sources of information, The Daily Show offers an entertaining and humorous alternative that draws more viewers (see Jones 2005b). Beyond entertainment and some political information, Jon Stewart and The Daily Show offer another element through its satire: political perspective. The Daily Show is saturated with stinging editorials and ironic humor that identifies hypocrisies which persist in politics (Baym 2005; Jones 2005a). In this sense, Stewart and the writers of The Daily Show are providing editorial commentary packaged as satire. The direct persuasive power of editorials on the public is well documented (Dalton et al. 1998; Kahn and Kenny 2002; Druckman and Parkin 2005), and Brinkman (1968) found that the interaction of editorials and political humor had a significant affect on readers’ political attitudes as well. Indeed, research has found that humor in general has persuasive power. Schmidt (1994), for example, discovered that humorous messages are better at grabbing an individual’s attention than non-humorous messages, and Sternthall and Samuel (1973) contend that the delivery of humor can increase the likeability of the humor source, thus increasing the chance that a viewer will agree with the source. Humor has also been found to generate a positive mood among viewers (Kuiper et al. 1995; Sinclair et al. 1994), and individuals are less likely to disagree with a persuasive message when they are in a good mood (Freedman et al. 1978). Thus, it is logical to expect that editorial commentary can also influence an audience when it is presented by a funny and likeable source (in this case Jon Stewart). Political discourse at its best is characterized by the presentation of counterarguments and multiple perspectives on a given issue or event. There is evidence to suggest that political humor can reduce the impact of counterarguments, thus increasing the persuasive power of a humorous message (Osterhouse and Brock 1970; Young 2004b). This effect is amplified when persuasive humor is combined with ‘‘ironic wisecracks’’ and a ‘‘self-effacing’’ demeanor from the source (Baumgartner 2007; Lyttle 2001). Self-effacing humor is commonplace on The Daily Show (Baym 2005; Jones 2005), and it has been shown that when an information source frequently defames its own credibility in a humorous style, it ironically gains credibility among viewers, thus increasing its persuasive power (Baumgartner 2007; Lyttle 2001; Walster et al. 1966). In other words, when Jon Stewart defames his own legitimacy (which he frequently does on and off The Daily Show), he actually gains credibility as a trustworthy political observer with no stake in the process. Stewart’s personal political leanings are fairly clear, but there is no reason to assume that The Daily Show is purposefully attempting to persuade viewers by propagating an ideological agenda. In fact, his self-effacing demeanor gives viewers the impression that he has no such intention. In this sense, Stewart is unique from many other political observers who do not claim objectivity—most notably political talk radio, in which the goal of persuasion is much more evident (Barker 2002). The preceding discussion about the effects of humor identifies reasons why we can expect Stewart’s criticism of politicians and political institutions to be 123 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 83 persuasive. Even if The Daily Show is not purposefully attempting to influence viewers, it is the nature of the message (self-effacing humor) that gives it persuasive power. If Stewart’s satire is directed at one person or party more than its opposition, it then is reasonable to expect an effect on the audience. The analysis presented below tests (a) whether or not The Daily Show’s brand of humor during the 2004 party conventions was more sharply pointed at Republicans than at Democrats, and (b) whether or not The Daily Show’s audience during this time became more critical of the Republican nominee for President. If they were indeed influenced, more negative attitudes toward the Republican nominees should be evident. Because the nature of political humor is inherently critical of its targets, it is not expected that attitudes toward the Democratic nominees among The Daily Show’s audience will become more positive. Indeed, previous experimental research has found that exposure to Stewart’s ridicule of Democratic presidential candidates can lower evaluations of those candidates was well (Baumgartner and Morris 2006). I expect, however, that any decrease in support for the Democratic nominees will be less pronounced than any decrease in support for the Republicans. The Daily Show’s Coverage of the 2004 Party Conventions The first step in this analysis is to test whether or not The Daily Show is more critical of one side of the political spectrum than it is of the other. The approach The Daily Show took to covering the party conventions in 2004 provides an excellent opportunity to make such a comparison. Because the structure of party conventions is so similar, The Daily Show used the same broadcasting approach to cover both conventions, providing four full days of coverage for each and reporting from the convention site. For both party conventions the programming focused almost exclusively on the personalities and events surrounding the proceedings, and coverage was provided by the same anchor (Stewart) and set of correspondents (Steven Colbert, Rob Cordry, Samatha Bee, and Ed Helms). In short, the structure of the coverage from one convention to the next was virtually identical, thus providing a baseline for comparing whether or not the topic and tone of the jokes varied. This facilitates an objective comparison (see Niven 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003). As David Niven notes, ‘‘By focusing on situations in which political leaders from the two parties have produced comparable results or engaged in comparable behavior, we can test the media’s reaction in a situation in which we can logically expect it should be similar’’ (2002, p. 74). Footage of The Daily Show’s coverage of the 2004 conventions was obtained from a DVD collection of ‘‘Indecision 2004,’’ which contained all of the footage from both party conventions. In terms of organizing the analysis, the selection of the unit of analysis had to be carefully considered. Typically, television news coverage is unitized by the story, which can be identified as broadcast around a common issue or event that is delivered with a recognizable introduction and ending (Neuendorf 2002). The Daily Show, on the other hand, typically does not have defined stories; instead it offers humorous comments outside the confines of a story, or even a 123 84 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 defined topic. While a particular story containing highlights from the previous night of convention speeches may last multiple minutes on The Daily Show, there can be a wide range of jokes that may take very different tones across a number of topics. Determining only one primary topic in a story containing possibly dozens of jokes and satirical comments oversimplifies the situation. It is the humorous comments that define the coverage. Thus, a much more thorough approach is to organize the units by each joke or satirical comment that was arranged around a cohesive target, which was typically a person or party in this case. If no target could be defined, then the joke (or attempted joke) was dropped from the analysis. Only jokes that drew laughter from the audience were analyzed. This approach to unitizing the coverage has some potential limitations. First, like all humor, political satire can be transmitted by words left unsaid that may require the receiver to connect the dots. It is possible that not all receivers would connect the dots the same way. This could influence reliability. Second, if the audience is biased in one direction or another, it is possible that their response to the humor may be biased as well—thus influencing the accompanying laughter. Nevertheless, The Daily Show does wish to appeal to a broad audience, so complexity and inference in the humor is kept to a minimum, and there were almost no instances in which it was apparent that Stewart was attempting to be funny, but the audience failed to respond. Thus, it was determined that targeted punch lines drawing laugher was the best unit of analysis. Unitizing the coverage by targeted humor yielded 251 jokes during the course of the convention coverage. Interviews with guests and introductions were excluded from the analysis. During the Democratic convention 131 targeted jokes were delivered, and 120 were delivered during the Republican convention. As mentioned before, the vast majority of these jokes targeted the individuals and processes surrounding the convention. There were, primarily, eight categories of targets. The content analysis of topics was conducted by a research assistant blind to the study. A second coder was used to confirm the reliability of the initial analysis. Agreement on joke topic was acceptable (Cronbach’s alpha = .71). Table 1 outlines these targets and illustrates the percentage of the time each target was humorously discussed. Not surprisingly, Democrats and Democratic figures dominated the coverage during their convention, and vice-versa for the Republicans. The target of the joke, however, tells us very little about how the humor may have been perceived by the audience. In order to gain a better grasp of the nature of the humor delivered in each convention, I constructed a content analysis that coded for the tone of humor that was delivered by Stewart and his colleagues. Table 2 outlines the mutually exclusive categories of humor created for the content analysis. These categories include: complimentary, self-deprecating, physical, stereotypical, dismissive, policy-based, and character-based. Within Table 2, the second column provides the definition for each category, and the third column provides examples taken from the coverage to illustrate each. Again, a second coder was used to measure reliability of the analysis, and agreement was high (Cronbach’s alpha = .73). When each humorous statement is analyzed by the categories of tone, we get a much more nuanced understanding of how The Daily Show’s humor differed across conventions. The number of jokes was relatively similar, but that does not translate 123 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 Table 1 Humor targets by convention 85 Target Democrat convention (%) Republican Total (%) convention (%) Democratic Party 12 2 7 Republican Party 0 28 13 George W. Bush 4 9 6 John Kerry 4 0 4 Dick Cheney 0 3 2 John Edward 3 0 1 Other Democrats 39 3 21 Other Republican 0 18 8 The Media 4 2 3 31 23 27 The Daily Show Other N 0 13 6 131 120 251 into similar types of humor. Table 3 demonstrates this distribution of each tone of humor over the coverage of the two conventions, and there are several interesting findings. As expected, The Daily Show engaged in a great deal of self-deprecating humor during each convention. In total, one in five jokes involved The Daily Show making fun of itself. These jokes were primarily aimed at the fact that the program is ‘‘fake news’’ and the notion that the host and correspondents should not be taken seriously. The distribution of this self-deprecation was consistent across the conventions, constituting 21% of the humor in the Democrat Convention, and 19% in the Republican convention. Jokes with a complimentary tone, on the other hand, were rare in both conventions. This is not surprising given the tendency for political humor to draw from the weaknesses and flaws for politics and politicians, rather than their more positive attributes. This type of humor was consistent across the two conventions as well. It should also not be surprising that humor that exploited stereotypes of politics and politicians was frequent in The Daily Show’s coverage. Almost one-third of the humor focused on the parties and the people associated them conforming to widely held stereotypes. Typically, this humor was based on crude assumptions, such as ‘‘Republicans are rich and white,’’ or ‘‘Democrats are soft on crime and prone to drug use,’’ which makes the humor accessible to a wider range of viewers. Ridicule for pandering, which was common, also fell under this category. The frequency of this humor did not vary across conventions significantly. Another category was dismissive humor, which generates laughs by highlighting irrelevance of individuals or groups that are attempting to be otherwise. In this regard, the futilities of the actors are exploited for humor. This approach was most frequently applied to poke fun at presidential ‘‘also-rans,’’ as well as protestors outside of the conventions. Compared to other categories of humor, dismissive humor was rare across both conventions. There were, however, multiple categories of humor that were disproportionately employed, and it is this set of differences that is most compelling. Humor of a 123 86 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 Table 2 Content analysis of joke tone Category Definition Example Complimentary An individual/group is given a complement on positive behavior or ideas. This is often used to set up another individual/group for more critical observations or critique the target’s contemporaries, often without naming them –John Edwards introduced by Stewart as ‘‘a country lawyer with comparatively good looks’’ Self-deprecating The host explicitly ridicules the importance of the show and/or the people involved in its production. Can also be a correspondent acting grossly uninformed and/or lacking basic intelligence –Jimmy Carter is referred to as a ‘‘sweet guy’’ and Nobel Peace Prize winner –Rob Corrdry’s visit to Boston (his hometown) where he laments on his childhood mistakes, drinks with old friends who make fun of him, and drunkenly searches for his girlfriend –Stewart calls his coverage of the convention ‘‘award shunning’’ Physical Statement that mentions a non–Stewart calls Democratic candidate consequential weakness of the target Dennis Kucinich a ‘‘mystic gnome,’’ such as physical appearance, and Richard Gephardt a ‘‘moonface’’ momentarily odd behavior, or an –Picture of John Kerry in a NASA ‘‘clean incidental mistake or political suit’’ miscalculation. Not a criticism of policy –Sound of crickets playing in the or character background after George Pataki botches a joke from a podium speech Stereotypical Statement that an individual or party is conforming to negative stereotypes of associated with politicians and/or politics. Includes pandering –Stewart observes at the RNC that, ‘‘Madison Square Garden hasn’t seen this many white people, since, ever’’ –The tendency for Democrats to lose winnable elections is likened to the (then) perennial losers, the Boston Red Sox Dismissive Statement which highlights the notion that –Stewart fails to recognize a former a given person, party, or special interest candidate for the party nomination by group is irrelevant to the campaign and/ saying, ‘‘I don’t know who that guy is’’ or the political process Policy Statement that highlights flawed policy (past or present) or failed policy –Stewart shows footage of protestors at RNC getting arrested and jokes that they are headed to Guantanamo Bay Character Statement that highlights flaws in an individual’s character, but does not criticize a policy –Zell Miller is ridiculed as angry and/or crazy following RNC keynote address –Dick Cheney is criticized for dodging military service in Vietnam physical nature, which tends to highlight humorous appearance, momentarily odd behavior, incidental errors, or political miscalculation was employed at the Democratic Convention with much greater frequency than the Republican Convention (28% vs. 7%, p \ .01). That is, political awkwardness was a much more common theme during the Democratic Convention. During the Republican Convention, on the other hand, political awkwardness was much less themed in favor of humor that focused on policy and character. Both policy and character 123 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 Table 3 Tone of humor by convention 87 Tone of humor Republican convention (%) Self-deprecating 21 Complimentary 8 6 29 31 Stereotypical * p \ .01 (two-tailed difference of means test) Democratic convention (%) 19 Dismissive 6 3 Physical* 28 7 Policy* 6 21 Character* 1 13 Other 2 0 131 120 N shortcomings were exploited for laughs with significantly more frequency during the Republican Convention. The difference in frequency across the conventions was statistically significant for both these types of humor (p \ .01). The picture that emerges from the analysis presented in Table 3 is one of a comedy show that ridiculed the convention participants in different ways. Based on the findings, it could be interpreted that the participants in the Democratic Convention were covered in a more light-hearted fashion, frequently portrayed as pandering (a frequent stereotype) and politically bumbling. While the Republicans were also portrayed in a stereotypical light (also often pandering), the humor took a sharper edge, and over one-third of the jokes preyed on policy failures or character flaws surrounding the participants. Certainly, these findings cannot uncover intent, nor can they determine whether or not the variation in humor was warranted. The findings do, however, illustrate that a discrepancy in coverage did appear to exist. I now turn to a discussion of whether or not attitude change among convention viewers was associated with exposure to The Daily Show’s coverage of the convention. Survey Data Analysis To test for the presence of attitude change during the conventions, I rely on two panel studies conducted during the party conventions in the summer of 2004. The National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES) conducted two panel surveys that were administered before and after each party convention. For each convention, a random sample of adults from the continental United States was contacted before the convention and asked a series of questions regarding media usage, political attitudes, and feelings toward the candidates. The respondents were then re-contacted in the 10 days following the convention and the questions were re-administered. The sample for the Democratic Convention (N = 1,016) was initially contacted between July 16 and July 25, 2004, and re-contacted between July 30 and August 8 (the convention was held from July 26–29). The sample for the Republican Convention (N = 1,049) was initially contacted between August 20 123 88 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 and August 29, 2004, and re-interviewed between September 3 and September 13 (the convention was held August 30–September 2). Only those respondents who were successfully re-contacted for the second wave of the panel were included in the data set. The key dependent variables in this analysis are perceptions of the candidates in the week following each convention while controlling for pre-convention perceptions. Several measures of candidate favorability are employed, including overall favorability (zero to 10-scale) and the degree to which the respondent concurred with statements that the nominees were (a) easy to like as a person, (b) trustworthy, and (c) likely to say one thing but do another. Agreement was listed on a zero to 10-scale, and respondents who did not recognize a candidate’s name were treated as missing data. To measure the key predictors (media exposure during the time of the conventions), the NAES asked respondents in the second wave of the panel to list their media habits in the previous week. The items included as indicators in this analysis were newspaper readership, network news exposure, cable news exposure, political talk radio exposure, exposure to The Daily Show, and exposure to The Late Show with David Letterman, The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, or Late Night with Conan O’Brien (the measures from the second wave were used). The newspaper, network TV, and cable news items are all measured on a zero- to seven-scale (number of days used in the last week). The measure of exposure to political talk radio was also based on the number of days used in the previous week. Exposure to National Public Radio (NPR), however, was not included in this measure in order to create a more accurate assessment of persuasive talk radio sources, the majority of which are conservative in nature (Barker 2002). The late night comedy exposure items were collected by asking respondents to list the number of days in the previous week that they watched late-night comedy. All respondents that said they watched at least one day were asked the follow-up question, ‘‘Which of the following late-night comedy programs do you watch most often—the ‘Late Show’ with David Letterman, ‘The Tonight Show’ with Jay Leno, or ‘The Daily Show’ with Jon Stewart, or ‘Late Night’ with Conan O’Brien?’’ From this item, four late-night variables were constructed: exposure to Jon Stewart (1 = Stewart most often; 0 = all other respondents), exposure to Leno (1 = Leno most often; 0 = all other respondents), Letterman (1 = Letterman most often; 0 = all other respondents), or Conan O’Brien (1 = O’Brien most often; 0 = all other respondents). Those respondents who reported watching ‘‘other’’ late night programmings were coded the same as those who reported not watching late-night comedy at all in the previous week. Other control variables were included as predictors as well, including the respondents’ gender, age, race education, and income (these variables were collected in wave one). I also controlled for partisan identification (7 point scale) and ideology (5 point scale). In a two-wave panel, measuring attitudes in the second wave, while controlling for that same measurement in wave one, represents the best approach to modeling attitude change (Kenski and Romer 2006). The inclusion of a lagged value of Yt-1 is a common method under such circumstances to control for the inertial nature of political attitudes toward presidential candidates in a general election but still 123 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 89 observe changes as a function of an external shock. This is particularly applicable in this case of using the pre-convention rating to predict post-convention ratings because the coefficient on the lagged dependent variable indicates the extent to which respondents maintain their attitude within the overall distribution over time. As Bartels (2006) notes, ‘‘Change scores may be calculated from observed responses at two points in time and subjected directly to statistical analysis, or (more generally) new opinions can be analyzed as a function of old opinions and intervening characteristics or events’’ (p. 142). Before moving onto a discussion of the multivariate models, it is useful to outline the attributes of the Stewart audience during the convention. It is important to note first that The Daily Show’s audience did not constitute a tiny portion of the latenight viewing audience. Although The Daily Show airs on cable television, as opposed broadcast television, almost one-in-five viewers of late-night comedy were Daily Show watchers during the Democratic Convention (18%), and a similar percentage of late-night comedy viewers watched The Daily Show during the Republican Convention (20%). Not surprisingly, the majority of the late-night audience consists of Leno and Letterman faithful, but the size of The Daily Show’s audience should not be discounted, particularly when compared to Conan O’Brien’s share, which was less than five percent. As far as the overall portion of the sample, Stewart viewers constitute approximately 6%, which is about half the size of the Leno or Letterman audience. These percentages fit well with the percentage of ‘‘regular’’ viewers of each program as listed by other samples in 2004 (see Pew Research Center 2004b). As Table 4 shows, there are some distinct attributes of The Daily Show audience that warrant discussion. In accordance with findings from earlier studies, The Daily Show’s audience is younger, more educated, slightly wealthier, and more Democratic in orientation compared to the other late-night television audiences. These attributes, however, should not be overstated. The mean age of The Daily Show’s viewers (low-forties) shows that the audience is not solely young adults. Also, while the Stewart audience is more Democratic that Leno or Letterman’s viewers, The Daily Show viewers are not overwhelmingly Democratic. In fact, barely half of the Stewart viewers (51% in both samples) classified themselves as Democrats, and the percent of The Daily Show viewers that are self-described Independents is comparable to the other audiences. The results from Table 4 illustrate that, overall, The Daily Show’s audience would be more likely to favor the Democratic ticket over the Republican ticket. By itself, of course, this is an underwhelming finding that fits with conventional wisdom regarding Stewart’s audience. The more interesting question, however, is if exposure to The Daily Show’s coverage of a significant political event (in this case the party conventions) correlates with attitude change. In Table 5, overall favorability toward Kerry and Bush after each convention is regressed on the predictors discussed above, including pre-convention favorability (zero to 10 scale). The strong coefficients associated with the lagged value of the dependent variable illustrate significant favorability stability, which is not surprising. However, there was not an overwhelming polarizing effect—attitude change was present, and it was variable across both samples. 123 90 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 Table 4 Attributes of Stewart audience compared to other late-night talk show audiences Audience Stewart Dem Conv. Leno Rep Conv. Dem Conv. Rep Conv. Letterman O’Brien Dem Conv. Dem Conv. Rep Conv. Rep Conv. % Male 56 61 47 55 41 53 55 50 Mean age 43 41 51 52 49 51 30 38 % White 92 95 84 92 88 80 100 65 % Democrat 51 51 31 33 32 31 56 42 % Republican 13 12 33 31 34 31 27 8 % Independent 23 41 28 28 28 36 9 42 % 4 year college degree or more 57 56 44 42 39 46 18 33 % Household income above $100,000 17 28 15 11 15 14 9 25 Total % of late-night TV audience 18 20 40 36 34 35 4 4 Total % of sample N 5 6 12 10 10 10 1 1 55 59 124 106 105 102 11 12 Indeed, there is evidence to suggest that exposure to The Daily Show was associated with significant changes in candidate evaluations, but only under certain circumstances. As the first two columns of ordinary least squares estimates in Table 5 show, exposure to The Daily Show during the Democratic Convention was not significantly associated with increased negativity toward Kerry or Bush. By contrast, exposure to The Daily Show’s coverage of the Republican Convention did have a negative influence on overall favorability toward President Bush. Even when controlling for other variables, including the partisanship and ideology of the respondents, the average viewer of The Daily Show exhibited a significant drop in favorability toward Bush. To be sure, exposure to other media sources was significantly associated with attitude change. Following the Democratic Convention, exposure to network coverage was associated with increased favorability toward Kerry, and newspaper usage was significantly associated with decreased favorability toward Bush. The substantive impact of these predictors, however, is rather small. That is, the coefficient for newspaper readership (-.05) and network news viewership (.05) means that a movement from one extreme of the scale (zero) to the other (seven) would entail a change of barely 1/3rd of a point in support (on a zero to 10 scale). On the other hand, The Daily Show watchers’ rating for Bush dropped by over 2/3rds of a point. Also, it is somewhat surprising that the political talk-radio predictor was insignificantly associated with attitude change toward either candidate during such a politically charged time period, as existing studies have documented the persuasive nature of the medium (Barker 2002; Jones 2002). 123 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 91 Table 5 Post-convention favorability toward presidential candidates Favorability after the Democratic National Convention (0–10 scale)a Favorability after the Republican National Convention (0–10 scale)a Kerry favorability Bush favorability Kerry favorability Bush favorability Pre-convention rating .61 (.02)** .70 (.02)** .72 (.02)** .75 (.02)** Genderb .01 (.11) -.15 (.10) .11 (.09) -.06 (.10) Age .00 (.00) .00 (.00) .00 (.00) -.00 (.00) Racec -.51 (.17)** .45 (.16)** -.07 (.15) .10 (.15) Education .01 (.03) -.03 (.03) .01 (.02) -.04 (.02)* Income -.02 (.03) .02 (.03) -.05 (.03)* -.03 (.03) Party identificationd .30 (.03)** -.27 (.03)** .24 (.03)** -.24 (.03)** Ideologye .22 (.06)** -.19 (.06)** .09 (.06) -.13 (.06)* Newspaperf .02 (.02) -.05 (.02)** -.00 (.02) -.01 (.02) Networkg .05 (.02)* .01 (.02) -.01 (.02) -.00 (.02) Cableh -.00 (.02) .03 (.02) -.02 (.02) .01 (.02) Talk radioi -.04 (.03) .01 (.03) -.02 (.02) .01 (.02) Stewartj -.30 (.24) -.11 (.23) .02 (.21) -.68 (.22)** Lenok -.07 (.16) -.08 (.16) -.01 (.15) .25 (.16) Lettermanl -.19 (.17) -.29 (.17)* -.09 (.16) .26 (.16) O’Brienm -.27 (.49) .05 (.46) .45 (.43) .91 (.44) Constant .90 (.35)* 3.05 (.41)** .50 (.28)* 3.29 (.36)** Adjusted R2 .75 83 .82 .85 N 890 911 933 939 Variable * p \ .05; ** p \ .01 (one-tailed) Note: Cell entries are unstandardized OLS coefficients with standard errors in parentheses a The dependent variable was measured by asking respondents, ‘‘On a scale of zero to 10, how would your rate George W. Bush? Zero means very unfavorable, and 10 means very favorable. Five means you do not feel favorable or unfavorable. Of course, you can use any number between zero and 10’’ b 1 = male; 0 = female c 1 = white; 0 = non-white d 1 = strong Republican; 2 = Republican; 3 = Independent leaning Republican; 4 = Independent/ other/no answer/don’t know; 5 = Independent leaning Democrat; 6 = Democrat; 7 = strong Democrat e 1 = very conservative; 2 = conservative; 3 = moderate; 4 = liberal; 5 = very liberal f The number of days in the past week the respondent read a newspaper (0–7) g The number of days in the past week the respondent watched the national network news (0–7) h The number of days in the past week the respondent watched cable news (0–7) i The number of days in the past week the respondent listened to talk radio other than NPR (0–7) j 1 = subject watched late night comedy at least one day in the past week, and watched The Daily Show more than any other late night comedy show; 0 = all other respondents k 1 = subject watched late night comedy at least one day in the past week, and watched The Tonight Show with Jay Leno more than any other late night comedy show; 0 = all other respondents l 1 = subject watched late night comedy at least one day in the past week, and watched The Late Show with David Letterman more than any other late night comedy show; 0 = all other respondents m 1 = subject watched late night comedy at least one day in the past week, and watched Late Night with Conan O’Brien more than any other late night comedy show; 0 = all other respondents 123 92 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 Regarding the other late-night comedy sources, exposure to Late Night with David Letterman was negatively associated with a decreased favorability toward Bush following the Democratic convention. The impact of the Letterman variable on that model, however, is less than half of that of The Daily Show in the postRepublican Convention model of Bush favorability. Aside from the negative effect of the Letterman variable on Bush’s favorability following the Democratic Convention, there were no additional significant effects from exposure to other late night comics. The findings from Table 5 could possibly be viewed with skepticism. Although exposure to The Daily Show’s coverage of the Republican Convention is associated with less support for President Bush, the relationship may be inconsequential considering the audience is more Democratic than other late-night sources. If partisan viewers of The Daily Show who are already resentful toward President Bush become slightly more so during the Republican Convention, is such a relationship substantively significant? To address this concern, Table 6 estimates the models in Table 5, but only for non-partisans, or individuals who did not consider themselves to be a Democrat or Republican (i.e., individuals who are pure Independents or Independents who only lean toward the Democratic or Republican Parties). That is, I excluded all respondents who classified themselves as a Democrat or Republican (strong partisans were also excluded). As it can be seen, non-partisan viewers of The Daily Show still displayed a significant drop in support for President Bush, and no such relationship exists among any of the other late-night comedy audiences. Looking beyond the nonpartisans, there may be other mitigating conditions of partisanship that influenced reactions to The Daily Show’s coverage of the conventions. In order to formally test whether or not the impact of The Daily Show was significantly different on self-identified Independents, Democrats, or Republicans, I estimated the models in Table 5 separately for Democrats and Republicans (not shown) in addition to Independents. I then conducted a Wald test in the postestimation in order to test the following null hypothesis for each of the four models: bðDemocratic Stewart viewersÞ ¼ bðRepublican Stewart viewersÞ ¼ bðIndependent Stewart viewersÞ In each of the four post estimations, the Wald test of the null hypothesis failed to generate an F-statistic that was statistically significant (p B .10). The conditional effect of partisanship, in other words, was insignificant. Tables 7 and 8 goes beyond the general measure of favorability toward the candidates, and demonstrates the relationship between the predictors and specific attributes of the candidates following the Democratic Convention. To measure attitudes along these dimensions, respondents were asked to agree with a series of statements on a scale of zero to 10. Specifically, respondents were asked, ‘‘On as scale of zero to 10, how does [insert phrase] apply to [John Kerry or George W. Bush]? Zero means it doesn’t apply at all, and 10 means it applies extremely well.’’ In conjunction with the more general favorability ratings following the Democratic Convention listed in Tables 5–6, the effect of The Daily Show is largely insignificant on evaluations of attributes of both candidates. Of the six models listed, the Daily Show variable is significant in only one: Bush’s likeability as a 123 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 93 Table 6 Post-convention favorability toward presidential candidates among non-partisans Favorability after the Democratic National Convention (0–10 scale)a Favorability after the Republican National Convention (0–10 scale)a Kerry favorability Bush favorability Kerry favorability Bush favorability Pre-convention rating .61 (.06)** .66 (.05)** .66 (.04)** .71 (.04)** Genderb .06 (.23) -.36 (.24) .17 (.19) -.15 (.21) Age -.02 (.01)* .01 (.01) .00 (.01) -.00 (.01) Variable Race -.28 (.37) -.03 (.37) -.43 (.27) -.17 (.31) Education -.02 (.06) -.12 (.06) .03 (.05) -.08 (.05)* -.05 (.06) .13 (.06)* -.07 (.05) -.03 (.06) Income c Partisan leaning .63 (.17)* -.60 (.17)** .75 (.13)** -.52 (.16)** Ideology .25 (.16) -.29 (.16)* .11 (.11) -.15 (.13) Newspaper .02 (.04) -.10 (.04)* .03 (.03) -.00 (.04) Network .07 (.05) .03 (.05) -.02 (.04) -.04 (.04) Cable -.02 (.04) .09 (.04)* .01 (.03) .03 (.04) Talk radio .00 (.06) -.04 (.06) .01 (.04) .05 (.04) Stewart -.07 (.70) .47 (.72) .39 (.38) -1.13 (.43)** Leno .41 (.31) -.03 (.32) .03 (.31) .19 (.35) Letterman -.22 (.34) .17 (.35) .08 (.28) .19 (.32) O’Brien -1.59 (1.63) -.98 (1.65) 1.02 (.80) .54 (.90) Constant .41 (.85) 4.82 (1.15)** -1.48 (.66)* 5.36 (.97)** Adjusted R2 .66 .72 .74 .77 N 207 212 286 292 * p \ .05; ** p \ .01 (one-tailed) Note: Cell entries are unstandardized OLS coefficients with standard errors in parentheses a The dependent variable was measured by asking respondents, ‘‘On a scale of zero to 10, how would your rate George W. Bush? Zero means very unfavorable, and 10 means very favorable. Five means you do not feel favorable or unfavorable. Of course, you can use any number between zero and 10’’ b See Table 5 for description of independent variables c 1 = Independent leaning Republican; 2 = Independent/other/no answer/don’t know; 3 = Independent leaning Democrat person. None of the Kerry variables are significantly influenced by exposure to The Daily Show. Kerry’s trustworthiness did significantly increase among newspaper readers, which is not entirely surprising given that today’s traditional media are most likely to cover the parties’ tightly-scripted ‘‘informercial’’ of the candidate’s best qualities during conventions (see Panagopoulos 2007). Exposure to talk radio during the same time, on the other hand, was negatively related to evaluations of Kerry’s trustworthiness, which is also not surprising given the rightward leanings of the talk radio hosts and their audiences (Barker 2002; Jones 2002). His likeability as a person, and the tendency to agree that he says one thing but does another (i.e., ‘‘flip-flop’’), was not associated with exposure to talk radio, as one might expect. The Republican Convention, again, is a different story. As Table 8 demonstrates, viewers of The Daily Show’s coverage of the Republican Convention were more 123 123 .02 (.03) .02 (.03) 1.56 (.53)** .63 559 Constant Adjusted R2 N 558 .76 .93 (.45)** -.73 (.58) .29 (.24) -.16 (.21) -.22 (.30) -.11 (.03)** .05 (.03)* .35 (.04)** 539 .34 5.23 (.81)** -.42 (1.03) -.33 (.39) .49 (.36) .58 (.52) .04 (.06) -.04 (.42) -.02 (.05) -.04 (.05) -.30 (.13)* -.33 (.06)** -.03 (.06) -.02 (.06) .69 (.36)* .01 (.01) .08 (.24) .60 (.03)** 599 .66 5.18 (.62)** -.46 (.68) -.25 (.28) .02 (.26) -.72 (.38)* -.03 (.04) .03 (.03) -.03 (.04) .01 (.03) -.29 (.09)** .29 (.05)** -.02 (.05) -.07 (.04)* -.24 (.25) .00 (.01) -.12 (.17) 606 .72 3.83 (.61)** -.78 (.67) -.36 (.28) -.22 (.28) -.60 (.26) -.04 (.04) .02 (.03) -.04 (.04) -.04 (.03) -.24 (.09)** -.34 (.05)** -.01 (.05) -.02 (.04) .37 (.25) .01 (.01)* -.22 (.17) .61 (.03)** Bush is Trustworthya 597 .43 1.47 (.70)* -.16 (.90) .13 (.37) -.14 (.34) -.17 (.50) -.04 (.06) .03 (.04) .06 (.05) .01 (.04) .39 (.12)** .33 (.06)** -.13 (.06)* .09 (.05) -.67 (.33)* -.01 (.01) .07 (.22) .40 (.04)** Bush says one thing and does anothera b See Table 5 for description of independent variables The dependent variable was measured by asking respondents, ‘‘On a scale of zero to ten, how does [insert phrase] apply to John Kerry/George W. Bush? Zero means it doesn’t apply at all, and 10 means it applies extremely well’’ a Note: Cell entries are unstandardized OLS coefficients with standard errors in parentheses * p \ .05; ** p \ .01 (one-tailed) .23 (.27) -.33 (.69) Letterman O’Brien -.56 (.36) .05 (.25) Stewart Leno -.02 (.03) .04 (.04) Cable Talk radio .01 (.03) .01 (.02) .05 (.04) Newspaper Network .32 (.04)** .15 (.08)* .33 (.05)** .15 (.09)* Party identification -.03 (.04) Ideology -.01 (.04) -.00 (.04) Education Income -.36 (.21)* -.00 (.00) -.01 (.01) -.49 (.25)* Age Race Genderb .62 (.03)** -.16 (.14) .57 (.03)** -.00 (.17) Pre-convention rating Bush is easy to like as a persona Kerry says one thing and does anothera Kerry is easy to like as a persona Kerry is Trustworthya George W. Bush John Kerry Table 7 Post-democratic convention ratings of presidential nominees 94 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 .13 (.09) .11 (.26) .51 (.63) -.41 (.48) .67 586 Letterman O’Brien Constant Adjusted R2 N 599 .72 .27 (.46) .62 (.61) .21 (.24) .51 (.24) 1.02 (.34) -.11 (.03)** -.00 (.03) -.00 (.03) .03 (.03) 583 .44 6.95 (.75)** -.54 (.86) .15 (.35) .25 (.36) .28 (.50) .11 (.05)* .02 (.04) .05 (.04) .04 (.04) -.28 (.13)* -.49 (.06)** .04 (.06) -.06 (.05) -.23 (.34) -.01 (.01) -.30 (.22) .37 (.04)** Kerry says one thing and does anothera 608 .68 3.57 (.62)** .92 (.69) -.29 (.27) -.02 (.28) -.73 (.39)* .05 (.04) .02 (.03) -.02 (.04) .04 (.03) -.15 (.10) -.24 (.05)** .03 (.05) -.07 (.04)* .14 (.28) -.00 (.01) -.09 (.17) .66 (.03)** Bush is easy to like as a persona George W. Bush 621 .80 3.94 (.50)** -.17 (.57) -.54 (.23)** -.08 (.23) -.56 (.32)* .04 (.03) .02 (.03) .03 (.03) .03 (.02) -.14 (.08)* -.32 (.04)** .03 (.04) -.04 (.03) -.33 (.23) -.00 (.00) -.21 (.14) .70 (.03)** Bush is Trustworthya 612 .41 -.22 (.69) -.26 (.92) -.32 (.37) .23 (.37) .93 (.52)* -.06 (.05) -.02 (.04) .02 (.05) .01 (.04) .32 (.14)** .48 (.06)** -.00 (.06) .07 (.05) -.57 (.37) .01 (.01) .41 (.23)* .30 (.04)** Bush says one thing and does anothera 123 b See Table 5 for description of independent variables a The dependent variable was measured by asking respondents, ‘‘On a scale of zero to ten, how does [insert phrase] apply to John Kerry/George W. Bush? Zero means it doesn’t apply at all, and 10 means it applies extremely well’’ Note: Cell entries are unstandardized OLS coefficients with standard errors in parentheses * p \ .05; ** p \ .01 (one-tailed) -.00 (.36) .25 (.26) Stewart -.04 (.03) Talk radio Leno -.01 (.03) -.04 (.03) Network Cable .20 (.09)* -.01 (.03) Ideology Newspaper .28 (.05)** .28 (.05)** Party identification -.01 (.03) -.04 (.01) -.03 (.04) .05 (.04) Education Income -.02 (.24) .00 (.01) .01 (.01) .30 (.25) Age Race .64 (.03)** .08 (.15) .64 (.03)** .06 (.16) Genderb Kerry is Trustworthya Pre-convention rating Kerry is easy to like as a persona John Kerry Table 8 Post-republican convention ratings of presidential nominees Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 95 96 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 critical of Bush following the convention. They were significantly less likely to agree that Bush is easy to like as a person and less likely to agree that Bush is trustworthy. And, they were significantly more likely to agree that Bush says one thing but does another. As was the case with the previous findings, The Daily Show variable had very little impact on evaluations of John Kerry following the Republican Convention. Ratings of Kerry’s trustworthiness actually increased, which was not expected. Most likely, the unexpected direction of the coefficient is more an artifact of decreased trust in Bush rather than anything Stewart said about Kerry. In other words, the portrayals of Bush and the Republicans was so negative that Kerry’s trustworthiness may have improved by comparison. Regarding other media sources in the model, Post-Republican Convention ratings of John Kerry’s trustworthiness and his tendency to say one thing but do another was significantly influenced by talk radio in the direction one might expect. During this convention (and the rest of the campaign), talk radio hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity were not shy in criticizing Kerry’s credibility and tendency to ‘‘flip-flop,’’ so it is not surprising that their similar-minded audience responded. Also, it should be pointed out that George W. Bush’s trustworthiness among David Letterman’s audience did significantly drop during the Republican Convention. In terms of the size of the coefficient, this effect was very similar to that of The Daily Show’s audience (approximately one-half of a point). Bush’s likeability among the Letterman’s audience did not significantly change, nor did the tendency to believe that Bush says one thing but does another. Nevertheless, this finding, combined with the significant decline in Bush’s overall favorability among the Letterman audience following the Democratic Convention (see Table 5), starts to illustrate a trend. While the ‘‘Letterman effect’’ on Bush’s favorability is not as consistently significant as the ‘‘Stewart effect,’’ the findings here do indicate that Letterman and his audience may have been more hostile toward President Bush in 2004 than Leno or Obrien and their audiences. Table 9 illustrates the results of analyses in which favorability toward both vicepresidential candidates were regressed on the media exposure predictors and the control variables. Multiple media sources were significantly associated with changes in favorability. Following the Democratic Convention, network news watchers displayed a significant increase in Edwards’ favorability, and Cheney’s favorability decreased among those who read the newspaper more often. Following the Republican Convention, Edwards’ favorability dropped among the talk radio audience. Regarding the effect of exposure to The Daily Show during the Republican Convention, attitudes toward Bush appear to have spilled over into attitudes toward Vice-President Dick Cheney. As Table 9 shows, the relationship between The Daily Show exposure and favorability toward the vice-presidential candidates follows the same pattern as it does with the presidential candidates. Exposure to the Democratic Convention on The Daily Show was not significantly associated with changes in favorability toward either candidate. During the Republican Convention, on the other hand, Vice-President Cheney’s favorability did significantly drop by a half of a point among The Daily Show’s audience. Cheney is widely regarded as one of the 123 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 97 Table 9 Post-convention favorability toward vice presidential candidates Variable Pre-Convention Rating Favorability after the Democratic National Convention (0–10 scale)a Favorability after the Republican National Convention (0–10 scale)a Edwards favorability Cheney favorability Edwards favorability Cheney favorability .56 (.03)** .70 (.02)** .69 (.02)** .71 (.02)** Genderb -.18 (.12) -.19 (.11) .18 (.10) -.18 (.11) Age -.00 (.00) -.00 (.00) -.00 (.00) .00 (.00) Race -.50 (.18)** -.02 (.17) .16 (.16) -.01 (.17) Education .00 (.03) -.05 (.03)* .03 (.02) -.05 (.03)* Income -.03 (.03) -.03 (.03) -.07 (.03)** .04 (.03) Party identification .32 (.04)** -.23 (.03)** .27 (.03)** -.25 (.03)** Ideology .20 (.07)** -.19 (.06)** .09 (.06) -.20 (.06)** Newspaper .01 (.03) -.04 (.02)* -.00 (.02) -.01 (.02) Network .08 (.03)** .01 (.02) -.03 (.02) .00 (.02) Cable -.01 (.02) .03 (.02) -.01 (.02) -.02 (.02) Talk radio -.01 (.03) .02 (.03) -.05 (.02)** -.02 (.02) Stewart .14 (.27) -.23 (.24) .15 (.23) -.49 (.24)* Leno .08 (.18) .03 (.16) .03 (.17) .29 (.18) -.03 (.18) Letterman .13 (.19) -.18 (.17) .12 (.17) O’Brien .05 (.52) .24 (.48) .48 (.47) .50 (.48) Constant 1.39 (.39)** 3.65 (.42)** .31 (.32) 3.33 (.39)** Adjusted R2 .68 .78 .74 .79 N 852 896 892 925 * p \ .05; ** p \ .01 (one-tailed) Note: Cell entries are unstandardized OLS coefficients with standard errors in parentheses a The dependent variable was measured by asking respondents, ‘‘On a scale of zero to 10, how would your rate George W. Bush? Zero means very unfavorable, and 10 means very favorable. Five means you do not feel favorable or unfavorable. Of course, you can use any number between zero and 10’’ b See Table 5 for description of independent variables most influential vice-presidents in history, and he is seen as a significant figure in the Bush Administration (see Baumgartner 2006). Thus, it is understandable how approval for Cheney would possibly decrease significantly as a result of exposure to frequent ridicule of the policies and figures in the Bush Administration and Republican Party as a whole. Taken as a whole, the findings presented in Tables 5–9 demonstrate a clear trend regarding the effects of exposure to The Daily Show during the party conventions. While exposure to The Daily Show during the Democratic Convention had little impact on feelings about the candidates, exposure to Stewart’s program during the Republican Convention was clearly negatively associated with favorability toward President Bush as well as Vice-President Cheney. Certainly, other media exposure variables were significant as well. Table 5 shows that network news exposure was positively associated with favorability toward John Kerry, while newspaper 123 98 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 exposure and exposure to The Late Show with David Letterman significantly decreased evaluations of President Bush following the Democratic Convention. In the analysis of non-partisans presented in Table 6, newspaper readership was negatively related to evaluations of President Bush, while cable news exposure had a positive effect after the Democratic Convention. In Tables 7, it can be seen that perceptions of Kerry’s trustworthiness became more positive among newspaper readers, but became more negative among the talk radio audience following the Democratic Convention. Following the Republican Convention, talk radio exposure was also negatively associated with views of Kerry’s trustworthiness and positively associated with the tendency to agree that he says one thing, but does another. And, exposure to David Letterman’s program was negatively related to Bush’s trustworthiness evaluation (see Table 8). The effects of media sources other than The Daily Show illustrate some interesting trends. For example, the talk radio audience displayed lower favorability toward Kerry and Edwards on more than one measure, and the newspaper audience appeared to show decreased favorability toward Bush and Cheney as well on multiple items. However, none of the media sources were as consistent as The Daily Show in their significant impact on favorability. I now turn to a closing discussion of the implications of these findings regarding Jon Stewart, The Daily Show, and the audience. Discussion Based on existing theories regarding the persuasiveness of humor, I hypothesized that Stewart’s clever brand of political satire and self-effacing humor carry weight with viewers. This study does not portend to argue that Jon Stewart and the writers of The Daily Show are purposefully trying to influence their viewers, which is why I do not conclude that The Daily Show is necessarily biased in its coverage. While it is clear that The Daily Show was harder on Republican policies and personalities than Democrats during the 2004 party conventions, the uneven criticism may have been warranted. After all, the Republicans were the party that controlled Congress, and their nominee for president was the incumbent. Thus, it is not entirely surprising that there was sharper criticism during the national convention of the party in power, and future analyses of The Daily Show’s political humor should pay attention to how Stewart’s humor may or may not change as the power pendulum in Washington swings—particularly in the White House. Nevertheless, my analysis has shown that the coverage was particularly uneven during the 2004 party conventions—a situation in which both parties and their nominees were engaging in very similar behavior, and the structure of The Daily Show’s coverage was identical from one convention to the next. The analyses of the panel data must also be interpreted with restraint. Although the two samples analyzed in this study appear to be representative of the overall population, they are just two samples. Within these two samples, the percentage of individuals who watched The Daily Show more than any other late-night comedy program during the conventions is relatively small (6%). However, this number is 123 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 99 similar to the percentage of ‘‘regular’’ Stewart viewers found by other surveys (Pew Research Center 2004b), so the representativeness of the sample should not necessarily be called into question. Also, the popularity of Jon Stewart and The Daily Show has continued to rise. As of October, 2007, Nielsen Media ratings showed The Daily Show averaged approximately 1.6 million viewers per night, a three-fold increase from when he took over the show in 1999. While recognizing the limitations in this study, the trends uncovered here have importance to the field of public opinion and political communication. The attitude shift of Stewart’s audience during the Republican National Convention was significant, and watchers of The Daily Show became increasingly hostile toward President Bush and Vice-President Cheney, while attitudes toward John Kerry and John Edwards remained fairly consistent. This relationship held even when several demographic and attitudinal factors were controlled, and the effect was not limited to partisan Democrats. Time and time again, Stewart and his colleagues have asserted that they are just having fun pointing out the absurdities that emanate from the people and processes involved in today’s political world. There is little reason to think that they are disingenuous in this claim. Regardless, even though Stewart may not intend to persuade anyone, the evidence suggests this may have happened within the context of the 2004 National Party Conventions. This distinguished The Daily Show from other late-night comedy sources as well as the other news media sources included in this analysis, none of which exercised a comparable effect on their viewers. Even exposure to talk radio, which has been found to be quite persuasive (Barker 2002), failed to significantly associate with attitude change on a consistent basis during the conventions. According to Thomas Patterson (1994), a great power has been placed at the feet of the modern American news media. Historically the media were content to operate as watchdogs and entertainers, but their responsibility has dramatically increased in the last half-century. The heavy erosion of state and local party organizations has crippled the ability of the political parties to fulfill their traditional role of educating the electorate on political issues and events. Much to the media’s chagrin, they have been pulled in to fill the information vacuum created by the political parties’ grassroots disappearance. From Patterson’s perspective, the media have failed to wield this power responsibly. Instead of acting in the public’s interest, they eschew this new responsibility in favor of the pursuit of profit. Although Jon Stewart enjoys poking fun at the modern news media for this shortcoming (see Young 2008), he ironically finds himself in a similar conundrum. As the lines between news and entertainment become increasingly blurred, political comics such as Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert have unwittingly become recognized by many observers as legitimate news providers and commentators. In this regard, Jon Stewart has inherited a power he did not seek and probably does not want. He is now a popular culture icon, and a significant portion of the American electorate take Jon Stewart’s satirical political commentary very seriously. It will be interesting to see how he and his colleagues address this new responsibility over the next several years—if they chose to recognize it at all. 123 100 Polit Behav (2009) 31:79–102 Acknowledgments This manuscript has benefited greatly from the comments of Jody C Baumgartner, James McCann, Todd Shields, and three anonymous reviewers. The author would like to thank Kara Craig for her valuable research assistance. References Barker, D. C. (2002). 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