ELECTRIC WIRE & CABLE, ENERGY
Transcription
ELECTRIC WIRE & CABLE, ENERGY
ELECTRIC WIRE & CABLE, ENERGY Toward Practical Application of High-Temperature Superconducting Technology - How to Proceed with Fundamental and Innovative Research and Development that Extends Over Ultra Long Period of Time Ryosuke HATA It is needless to say that high-temperature superconducting (HTS) technology is one of the most important and innovative technologies for the 21st century, which is said to be the “century of energy, resources and environment”. There are some opinions, however, that HTS technology is still premature although it is 20 years since it was discovered in 1986. Focusing principally on HTS technology (mainly Sumitomo Electric’s first-generation HTS wire “DI-BSCCO”) and its products, this paper studies on what kind of features the fundamentally new and innovative technologies and products have in their research and development (R&D) stage, and how to proceed with their R&D, especially how the public funds to maintain and promote such R&D should be, during the long time needed to put them into practical use. 1. Introduction High-temperature superconductivity (HTS) is one of the most important new technologies in the 21st century, a century where mankind focuses its efforts on energy, resources, and the environment. Although it has been 20 years since the HTS phenomenon was discovered in 1986, the innovative technology has not become used as widely as it should be. There is even an opinion that it is too early to practically apply HTS technology. Focusing on HTS (mainly first-generation DIBSCCO superconductor), this report discusses and reviews the characteristics of the research and development of new basic technologies and products, which take an extremely long period of time to put to practical application, how they should be deployed, the nature and significance of public funds, and how these funds should be invested. 2. Uniqueness of HTS Although humankind (and all other living things) cannot live without energy, resources, and the environment, in addition to food, human beings overlooked the importance of energy, resources, and the environment until the end of the 20th century, as if thinking these crucial aspects of daily lives would be indefinitely accessible. On February 16, 2005, the Kyoto Protocol became effective. It was a symbolic event indicating that humankind had finally been enlightened, upon entering the 21st century, to the fact that energy, resources, and the environment are finite, and that their sustain- ability would not be ensured if they are to be consumed without some kind of restrictions. The greatest reason that all existing living creatures including humans continued to exist until today is because the total energy required for all living forms to continue their activities can be covered by incoming solar energy. Today, the energy consumed by human activities has ballooned to the extent that the principle is not necessarily true anymore. Therefore, if the increase in the total number of humans cannot intentionally be restricted and also if the increase in human energy consumption cannot be controlled under the current framework of policies and social activities, the only solution left would be to develop novel systems required for human activity using advanced, innovative technologies. HTS, as a new innovative technology to ensure human survival, was expected to lead a new trend. Twenty years have passed since it was first discovered in 1986, but it is not yet used to its maximum potential. Instead, the number of research organizations, businesses, and scientists who are involved in developing and putting HTS into practical application is decreasing yearly. Presently, only a handful of organizations and businesses in Japan and the U.S. strive toward its practical application and commercialization. Moreover, only two types of HTS conductor have survived today: firstgeneration (1G) superconductor (BSCCO or Bi2223) discovered in Japan in 1988 and second-generation (2G) rare-earth superconductor (YBCO, HoBCO or RE123) discovered in the U.S. in 1987. Apparently, competition over the development with public investment in the U.S. and Japan is narrowing down to 2G. HTS is a new technology supporting the infrastructure of energy, resources, and the environment. To clar- 48 · Toward Practical Application of High-Temperature Superconducting Technology - How to Proceed with Fundamental and Innovative Research and Development that Extends Over Ultra Long Period of Time - ify the features of HTS technology, a comparison is made between power facilities (HTS cables) and pharmaceutical products (Table 1). Because pharmaceutical products are essential to life itself, development and commercialization are typically carried out aiming to accomplish the impossible, and thus the role or function of new inventions is easy to see. On the contrary, motivations for applying HTS cables in power facilities and making changes in power infrastructure are not as strong, since power infrastructure has been already built and functioning without HTS cables. Consequently, in order to win recognition of benefits of HTS and increase its application, it takes a notable amount of time as well as extra efforts to provide incentives and motivations. Table 2 shows another comparison (HTS cable versus new electronics technology). In the electronics industry, the gap in technological performance surfaces in a very short time, and competition between products also ends quickly. Consequently, performance comparison and performance competition are constantly ongoing amongst numerous competitors. Inevitably, assessment by users and customers is also done in an early stage. To survive in competition, suppliers are forced to conduct all technological development from minor improvements to innovation on a short-term day-to-day basis with their own funds. On the other hand, HTS cables are unique in that the development or improvement of them starts from modifying their materials and in that their users and manufacturers are limited during the initial stage. This means that there is limited development competition within a particular industry and that the determinant for user acceptance of HTS cables is neither competitiveness nor urgent necessity. In reality, a proven track record is the important factor for electric utilities to employ a new product. Avoiding the risk of being the first adopter of new technology, utilities often wait and see the result of new technology introduced by competitors before employing new products. Because the adoption of HTS cables clearly has an impact on utilities’ corporate competence (or even national power in some cases) in the long run, as well as on the future of the people or humankind whose life depends on electric power infrastructures, utilities need to determine the adoption of HTS cables from a broad perspective. This evidently means that the period during which their motivation towards adoption of new technology increases is when infrastructures and facilities are constructed or renewed on a major scale. When the timing is not necessarily right for this motivation, therefore, financial or institutional support from governments or public organizations from a broad and long term perspective is essential. Table 2. Comparison of R&D & Penetration of New Product into Market between Products Small parts for general-purpose A product for large-scale infrastructure Example FPC, terminal, IC (Electronics parts) Underground HTS power cable Size & amount of use Small size & large amount Large size & small amount for specific use Purpose General-purpose (private use) Infrastructure (Largely public use) Customers Unspecified Specified (Power utilities, etc.) Suppliers A large number &less area-dependent A limited number & greatly area-dependent Product life Several years Several decades Product traceability & quality assurance Outright sales & limited assurance Registered one by one & long-term full assurance Product unit price Generally cheap High through Ultra High Influence of accident Small & limited Large Replacement to new product Easy Not easy Fierce (Constant change) Mild (But sudden change) Table 1. Why New Technology or New Products Are Necessary? Needs from market & customers Market development factor Utility Greatly needed against cancer, AIDS, etc. (Personal necessity) Regardless of Price Making the impossible possible (Curing the incurable) Electric power systems (HTS cable) No immediate need due to current technology being available Social necessity Depends on population and the degree of civilization in the long term Comparison with current technology (Economy-oriented) Immediate market development Slow market development through comparison & investigation Immediate After long-time efforts Artificial-induced drive is necessary R&D motivation Drug approval (Natural penetration among individuals) Needs-oriented *Performance demonstration test *Legal enforcement (CO2 reduction / emission-right) *Green evaluation Fund & period Small (through big) & short term Risk Fund Public support Product permeation policy Competition Development Pharmaceutical products Largely seeds-oriented Retention of technology & engineers Big cost & long term Step-up & not so big Big Fund on hand *Pool between special companies * (Nation’s) Public fund *Necessary to maintain Not difficult to intentionally for transfer & maintenance & renewal maintained by plural *Important to succeed makers for new R&D SEI TECHNICAL REVIEW · NUMBER 64 · APRIL 2007 · 49 Energy, resources, and the environment have all been taken for granted until the end of 20th century. Even into this century, decisions to invest funds in these areas are difficult to make in R&D of topics that only focuse on economical advantages. Particularly, in the electric energy industry, which tends to be conservative in terms of business operation due to the scale of business and the requirement of reliability, it has been difficult to provide a priori approval and long-term support to the research, development, and practical application of HTS materials and other new and unfamiliar materials that require many years of R&D. HTS is a novel technology, and its development started from the experimental modification and creation of substances. Accordingly, companies who have been continuing R&D of HTS materials have their own reasons or requirements one way or another, one of which is corporate culture. Sumitomo Electric Industries, Ltd., which had derived from the Sumitomo Family that has a history of copper production for more than 400 years, has a unique commitment to and emphasis on copper wires. Sumitomo Electric has a very strong determination to develop the ultimate new technology in the area of HTS materials, which they think have the potential to surpass the performance of copper wires. To this end, Sumitomo Electric has devoted all of their experience and expertise in copper technologies. Sumitomo Electric researchers also have a deep-seated belief in historical inevitability of technology (Fig. 1). Private businesses have a mission to secure profits, however, no matter how high the historical significance of a research theme is, and there are limitations to R&D. In the field of science (from principle elaboration to feasibility demonstration), it is difficult to undertake challenges with one’s resources only. Private companies therefore usually wait for the results of university or public institute research. Their challenging activities are pursued in the field of engineering (research on practical application where scientific proof is already estab- 20th Century 21st Century Generalized in Japan, US, Europe and Asia Industrial Era 3 Major Technological Discoveries/Inventions Information Technology Era Electronics (& Optoelectronics) Nuclear Energy Development Race Between Japan & US (& Europe) Superconductivity Three Key-words (Great Expectations) Environment Energy Resources Fig. 1. Historical Significance of High Temperature Superconductivity (HTS) lished). However, themes related to fundamental development are not always included in the portfolio of business departments engaged in day-to-day business activities. Without R&D policies which are clear-cut and based on shared awareness, it is difficult for departments to pursue these themes over a long time. One example of such a clear-cut policy is the “4:4:2” principle as shown in Fig. 2 (3), where the first 40% of the company’s resources is invested to optimize the current business, and the next 40% in developments from the current business. The last 20% is then allotted to new themes that are uncertain but can be innovative. The R&D of HTS technology has been categorized as a “last 20%” theme in the past 20 years. (Even if the themes are uncertain and may not produce profits immediately, private businesses should be able to continue investing in research as only 20% of funds is required.) Products Current Modified Innovated Products Products Products Businesses 3. Characteristics of DI-BSCCO Development (1), (2) Current Businesses [A] 40% New Businesses – New products in line B 4 with current businesses [B] 40% (20%) – “High-efficiency” & A 4 “high-profit” in current businesses [C] 20% Future new innovative C 2 products Marketing *Customerorientated *Customer satisfaction *Market-in [A], [B] (by Boat) A B Personnel *Visible target *Observing ability *Improvement & upgrading *Development efficiency & speed [C] *Product-out *Challenging spirit (Parachuting) *New idea (New C *Inventor principle) *Person of ideas Fig. 2. Principle of “4:4:2” However, to what extent can private entities continue uncertain investment? Analysis of case studies of optical fibers and flexible print circuits (FPCs) using the logistic curve (S curve), an indicator used in modern economics, shows that it takes about 20 to 25 years for a truly influential R&D theme to culminate (Fig. 3). The figure shows that Sumitomo Electric’s 1G DI-BSCCO superconductor has successfully crossed the “Devil’s River”, or the obstacles in the R&D phase, by the development of the “CT-OP (controlled-over-pressure) sintering technique (2), and at present is in the midst of overcoming the “Valley of Death”, or the obstacles in the commercialization phase. In other words, the technology is now at a crossroad that would determine if it will be put into practical application in several years’ time, or end as a premature technique. Figure 4 illustrates that 2G YBCO (HoBCO) superconductor is in a stage where the optimum material configuration and optimum manufacturing process to realize 2G tape have yet to be established. Manufacturers are accordingly facing difficulties in focusing on large-scale intensive development and practical application that requires enormous capital investments and mass production because optimum combination of material configuration and manufactur- 50 · Toward Practical Application of High-Temperature Superconducting Technology - How to Proceed with Fundamental and Innovative Research and Development that Extends Over Ultra Long Period of Time - ing process is still unknown. If a more practical combination is discovered after having built the required facilities through a series of intensive investments, a huge amount of money may be wasted. Strictly speaking, 2G is currently in a state of immediately before finishing crossing the “Devil’s River” (Fig. 3). Consequently, if 2G is undertaken as a theme by itself, it may take more than 20 to 25 years for it to overcome the “Valley of Death” on the logistic curve. In order to achieve success instead of dismissing the technology as premature (in other words, to achieve breakthrough, further efforts by researchers and engineers are required), a different logic is required. There seems to be a need to switch to the policy of overcoming the “Valley of Death” through the integration of 1G and 2G tape architectures (1G + 2G = HTS) by maximizing the benefits of the practical application of existing 1G DI-BSCCO (Fig. 5). Traditionally, 2G HTS research has been maintained by hoping that the performance expected of 2G would exceed 1G to a considerable extent. As a matter of fact, 1G has been con- Devil’s River CT-OP t men cts elop Dev S Produ T of H 100-m-long HTS Cable as Devil’s River Research ility tab rke 20 to 25 years Discovery Discovery of HTS of YBCO 1986 1988 2000 Valley of Death Development Expansion of HTS Market Ma Discovery of BSCCO Darwinian Sea Expected Appearance of HTS Ventures HTS Materials Ventures R& D Supply of HTS Tape Samples we ll a s Valley of Death Patents 2003 2010-15 (Year) Darwinian Sea Commercialization Industrialization (Business) Products (Industry) Goods Fig. 3. Logistic Curve (or S Curve) for High Temperature Superconductivity (HTS) sidered the competitor by 2G developers. The policy shift is very important because HTS R&D should be conducted on a broader perspective by integrating 1G and 2G to cross the “Valley of Death”. Fortunately, 1G BSCCO has crossed the “Devil’s River” at an early stage (Fig. 3), and the optimum combination of material configuration and manufacturing process is already known (Fig. 4). In this stage, however, most researchers in the industry concluded that early progress cannot be expected for 1G, and focused their R&D efforts on 2G, because it was thought that in the case of 2G the control of material formation (including the atomic arrangement) is feasible as is the case with semiconductors. Meanwhile, Sumitomo Electric has continued R&D of 1G uncompromisingly. The greatest drawback of 1G BSCCO from industrial productivity viewpoints (massproduction of long-length tape, enhanced yield, quality assurance, etc.) was identified as the low-density of the ceramic filaments which are easy to swell. As a result of R&D of 1G, Sumitomo Electric successfully discovered an innovative CT-OP sintering technique and developed the 1G dynamically- (or drastically-) innovative BSCCO (DI-BSCCO) tape (1), (2). The Company made a unique approach, totally different from its competitors. Highperformance HTS materials need to be manufactured into long-length tapes without any defects, and Sumitomo Electric recognized that the best conditions for “small lot trial production of short-length tapes” do not necessarily lead to the best conditions for “mass-production of long-length tapes”. In conclusion, in the development of HTS tapes, the best conditions should be newly researched and developed based on the massproduction process for long-length tapes. Sumitomo Electric is firmly convinced that test results gained from small-lot, short-length tape production are basically not consistent with the establishment of the process for high-volume, long-length tape production and subsequent performance enhancement of tapes using this process. Sumitomo Electric had built a large-scale CTOP sintering tank and pursued the best conditions for mass-production of long-length tapes not as small-scale R&D but as new and independent R&D. Indispensable Conditions for Commercialization of HTS <Crossing of “Valley of Death”> ➁ Sufficient Equipment Investment for HTS Commercial Production Equipment Funds, Operational Funds, Capital Depreciation & Recovery, Establishment & Improvement of Production Technologies, Technical Personnel Training & Retention 1st-G (BSCCO) 2nd-G (RE123) Raw Material Bi, Sr, Ca, Cu, O YBCO, HoBCO (plus Additives) Production Powder-in-tube IBAD, ISD, PLD, MOD, Polishing Process method Premature (Best combination is Maturity Nearly mature not yet known.) ) Production Process Materials & Composition ( (What is the Best?) (Private) Investment to Equipment meet determined Investment specifications Difficult to invest because best specifications are not yet determined. Fig. 4. Important Matters in Crossing “Valley of Death” First Generation (BSCCO) Second Generation (RE123) Important Points ➀ Technical Maturity of HTS Tape (Ic, Length, Quality Assurance, Mass-production, Lead Time, Cost, etc.) Massproduction of HTS Tape (Supply) Trial Manufacture & Practical Application of HTS Products & System (Development) Feedback to HTS Tape (Performance /Cost) (Mass-production) <Crossing of “Devil’s River”> Expansion of Applications Replacement & Expansion of Applications (1) Material Development Takes Long Time. Development of Applied HTS Products Also Requires Long Periods. (2) Merits & Demerits of HTS Tapes & Products Should be Determined and Improved from at Early Stage. (3) No Success of 2G without Success of 1G Fig. 5. Success Story of HTS R&D SEI TECHNICAL REVIEW · NUMBER 64 · APRIL 2007 · 51 Intellectual property rights (IPRs) should not be forgotten in this age of pro-patent. Over the past few years, Sumitomo Electric has analyzed the contents of numerous IPRs related to 1G BSCCO inside and outside of the Company. Relationships between the patents owned by Sumitomo Electric and the IPRs of others were clarified, and any necessary measures concerning patents were taken. As a result, it has established conditions for actual commercialization of 1G BSCCO in terms of IPRs. Meanwhile, the basic patents of 2G RE123 (YBCO and HoBCO) are patented in the U.S. The progress of R&D carried out in various countries has led to the establishment of various patents on the products, materials, manufacturing methods, etc. of 2G RE123, which are all intricately intertwined on domestic and international levels. Therefore if commercialization is the aim, it is essential to carry out the investigation of these IPRs very carefully from a very early stage of development to avoid IPR infringement. HTS tape was born from the science of producing new unprecedented materials. It is a truly advanced, innovative technology. Naturally, it was preceded by material research. It is customary for the development of “seeds” to precede the development as to new materials. However, since new materials without applications are meaningless, the timing for starting R&D of practical application (seed-out or product-out) is always a serious issue, serving as a crucial point in determining commercialization. Because this is so crucial, Sumitomo Electric is always exposed to the risks of becoming overly cautious and postponing decision-making or watching and waiting for others to succeed instead of being a front runner. The concept that HTS tapes are materials that had never existed previously, and will have no value whatsoever if no good use is made of them, is very important to the researchers and engineers of manufacturers aiming at commercialization. Initially, there was a tendency to think that if good quality HTS tapes (materials) can be produced, their applications will spread by themselves naturally. However, HTS has the fundamental drawback that it only becomes superconductive when cooled down to approximately -200˚C. It is therefore crucial to be aware that assessments based on their applications have important significance in determining whether HTS is truly useful. Therefore, from an early stage of its 1G BSCCO HTS R&D, Sumitomo Electric launched application research of readily available 1G BSCCO tapes in HTS AC cables (Fig. 6). Fortunately, the mainstream products of Sumitomo Electric included from conductive wires to the finished power cables. As of today (2006), Sumitomo Electric is the only private company in the world succeeding in the integrated manufacturing from HTS tapes (DI-BSCCO tapes) to HTS cables for commercial use (Albany Project (4)-(7) and KEPRI Project (4), (8)) due to the following reasons: (1) Sumitomo Electric has been a vertically integrated manufacturer consistently supplying cable products ranging from wires to power cables. (2) The researchers and engineers of the HTS R&D team were gathered from amongst those developing wires and those developing cables. A member in charge of wire application (cable development) was appointed the leader of the team, which was a challenging decision. Figure 7 shows an example of the feasibility study on the application of HTS cables by the mixed development team. Regarding the omission of the substation described in this figure, detailed case studies were presented by U.S. and South Korean users (electric utilities) (9). Figure 8 shows the merits of liquid nitrogen (LN2)-cooled HTS cables, which are not found in other cables. The competitive edge of the HTS cable, if developed, is gradually becoming clear. Table 3 compares economic viability. With the quantitative merits becoming more apparent, all members of the team were convinced about the marketability of the HTS cable. From a power cable manufacturer perspective, Sumitomo Electric understands that HTS BSCCO tapes are an important component generating HTS phenomenon in HTS power cable, but it is merely one of the 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 Super-GM (I) Tapes BSCCO (Old) Long Tape Production Technology BSCCO (New) Super-GM (II) ( Energy-saving Subsidies & Performance Enhancement DI-BSCCO (Performance Enhancement) Next Generation (RE123) Cable Target ISTEC Basic R&D Cooperative R&D (TEPCO, Sumitomo Electric, etc.) Application Basis (I) Problems Large Power Transmission Cables with Low Loss for Use in Urban Areas ➀ Cable Route No More Space for (Right of Way) Need for Larger Power Supply due to Progress of IT ➂ Difficult to Achieve Large Power Transmission while Saving Energy Application Basis (II) 66 kV/100 m/3-core Cable (TEPCO & Sumitomo Electric) 77 kV/500 m/1-core (NEDO & Furukawa) [I] Replacement of Existing Cables Power Generator (I) SMES (II) Single-crystal Pulling Industrial Apparatus 275/154/66kV First Substation Power Generator, Transformer & Current Reducer (II) SMES (I) ( Private Funds [II] Omission of Substations 500kV Duct Power Apparatus ➁ Substation Pole Transformer 6.6kV 100 or 200V Second & Third Substations SMES (III) In-vehicle Transformer Performance Enhancement 3 Circuits in Existing Cable Route HTS Cable 2 Circuits + Information Cable Ducts Vast Space & Lots of Apparatuses Pole Transformer 6.6kV 66kV HTS Cable 100 or 200V Substation Ship-propulsion Motor Fig. 6. History of HTS R&D in Japan Fig. 7. Exemplars of Effective Applications of HTS Cables 52 · Toward Practical Application of High-Temperature Superconducting Technology - How to Proceed with Fundamental and Innovative Research and Development that Extends Over Ultra Long Period of Time - tion” carried out on a state level, as described later). Table 4 summarizes the importance of “concurrent development”. “Product-out” and “market-in” were simultaneously established by the mutual exchange of requirements and views between the upstream materials engineers and downstream applied technology engineers on equal footing, while mutually understanding required properties of both sides in development efforts. This enables the development to go with combining the strengths, while complementing the weaknesses, of new materials, technologies, and products. It is possible to prevent serious drawbacks that would normally occur when upstream material development and downstream applied development are carried out separately; namely, excess risk hedges imposed on the Non-Explosive Non-Flammable HTS Cable Large Current Carrying Superconductiv Liquid Nitrogen Coolant small elements making up the entire power cable line system (Fig. 9) (10). This means that the HTS cable cannot be realized without focusing more efforts on the development and verification of HTS cables than on the development of HTS tapes. If HTS cables are not realized, it is without doubt that HTS tapes will not proliferate. In this context, Sumitomo Electric decided to take up HTS wire R&D and HTS cable R&D as two equally important themes indispensable to realizing HTS practical application, and to launch a “Concurrent” R&D project conducted jointly by the HTS wire and HTS cable R&D teams. The “concurrent development endeavor” eventually served as an important key to the Company’s success (this can be called the corporate version of “vertically integrated development and practical applica- AC DC Ultra Low Loss Conductor EMI-Free No Electromagnetic Pollution Insulation PPLP LN2 Cryostat Metal Sheath Heat Insulation Tape Reinforcement Tape Anti-corrosion Jacket Vacuum Apparatus Extinguishable No Industrial Waste Advanced Green Green 21st Century-Style *Disaster Prevention *Green *Ultra Long Life *Large Capacity Transmission *Energy Saving *EMI-free Pump Valve Pipe Tank Cooler Power Cable No Thermal Expansion or Contraction (No Degradation Cable) Termination HTS tape is a component of HTS product or system Winding Pitch & Layer Joint Protection Tape Bending Stress-cone Epoxy-stopper Lead Others Fig. 8. Merits of HTS Cable BSCCO Tape Ic Mechanical Strength AC Loss Long-length Tape Tape Joint Splitter Box Monitoring Impedance Matching Joint Maintenance Fault Current Limiter Cable Installation Life Examination ····· Operation High-pressure Gas ····· To Cope with Accident Waste Treatment Loss Reduction (Economical Evaluation) Needs to Develop & Verify Various Related Technologies Concurrently Fig. 9. HTS Cable and BSCCO Tape Table 3. Environmental and Economic Comparisons Between HTS and Conventional Cable Systems AC Transmission Capacity DC Conventional Cable HTS Cable HTS Cable 1,500MVA (500MVA x 3cct) ditto (375MVA x 2cct x 2Route) ditto (1,500MVA x 1cct) Transmission Voltage 275kVrms 66kVrms 130kV Transmission Current 1kArms/phase 3.3kArms/phase 12kA/phase Cable Type Single-phase XLPE Cable 3-in-One HTS Cable 3-in-One HTS Cable Cable Size Approx. 140mm Approx. 135mm Approx. 135mm Number of Cables 9 Transmission Loss 740kW/km CO2 Emission*1 (CO2 Reduction) 778ton-C/km/year (–) Transmission Loss Cost*2 (Cost Reduction) 648,000/km/year (–) 175,000$/km/year (473,000$/km/year) 18,000$/km/year (630,000$/km/year) NPV of Loss (30 years, Int. rate 5%) (–) +7.28M$/km (473x15.4) +9.7M$/km (630x15.4) 50$/t-C (–) +0.852M$/km (50 × 568 × 30) +1.136M$/km (50 × 757 × 30) 100$/t-C (–) +1.7M$/km (100 × 568 × 30) +2.27M$/km (100 × 757 × 30) Emissions Trading (30 years) 1/2 4 1/4 200kW/km 1/4 210ton-C/km/year (568ton-C/km/year) 1 20kW/km 1/10 21ton-C/km/year (757ton-C/km/year) *1 Calculated at carbon conversion rate of 0.12kg-C/kWh *2 Calculated at per kWh generation cost of 10cents SEI TECHNICAL REVIEW · NUMBER 64 · APRIL 2007 · 53 Table 4. Importance of Concurrent Development Conventional R&D in “series” (Steady) ➀ Existence of researchers who only do material development ➁ Seeds-out or product-out ➂ Material researchers never engage in market development activities ➃ Material research is categorized as either scientific or basic research, and therefore is principally supported by public funds ➄ Patents come mainly from materials Concept: Good R&D results can create market demands Researchers only announce forecasts of good R&D results Engineers in application fields are left waiting Negligence of application development ➀ Application development in ➀ Material becomes parallel with material useful only when its research application is developed ➁ Material researchers and application engineers work ➁ Development of as a group innovative material requires ➂ Material characteristics development of its Application requirements usage (application) Product-out and market-in ➂ Development of at the same time “usable material” ➃ No negligence of ➃ Application should Concurrent engineering be so developed R&D that developed (Speed-oriented) ➄ Full knowledge in material characteristics material can exploit its ➅ Research on customer’s uniqueness needs and reflecting customer’s needs on ➄ Early acquisition of material and application customers R&D Fostering of market for mass-produced ➆ Emphasis on application new product patents ➅ Execution of ➇ Constant concern about necessary mass-production, even at equipment the stage of material investment development Delay in practical application ever; the focus is placed on how rapidly research topics can be transferred from national or public institutes to businesses (manufacturers) that deal with practical application. It will also become increasingly important to make maximum efforts to share the same views on “concurrent R&D” through personnel interchanges between the two sides, and build an environment for researchers and development engineers to talk about their ideas based on joint experience and common values. Table 5. Comparison of R&D Between Private Manufacturer’s and National or Public Research Institutes Private Maker’s Laboratory Market development for new product using innovative material is difficult without acceptance and application by customers Simultaneous developments of material and its application are indispensable Especially for massproduction Early practical application upstream side by the downstream side, and the subsequent marked delay in materials development. As a result, this promotes a common understanding on the direction and effects of R&D and increases the awareness of sharing a common destiny among R&D engineers. This also enhances engineers’ sense of mission and accelerates development speed. It requires a major decision to determine the best timing for starting “the concurrent development of materials and applications” (not application development carried out just for trial purpose, but an all-or-nothing application development). Key factors for making such decision include “indepth understanding of R&D significance,” “ambition,” “corporate culture,” “enterprising spirit of the business,” and more significantly, "willpower to challenge cuttingedge technologies in the world at any cost and win.” Table 5 compares R&D characteristics between national or public research institutes and private companies (manufacturers), other than concurrent R&D. Evidently, there exist drawbacks and advantages on both sides, which should lead to the categorization to which each R&D theme should belong. Today, fast development and practical application is emphasized more, how- R on R National or Public Research Institute Emphasis on actual achievements, from company’s experience and priority Focus on originality and phenomenalistic theory *Easy cooperation with other inhouse and outside laboratories *Closed and detached from material development *Not easy cooperation Integration to application into systems with other organizations *Cooperation with production and sales ( ) *Unstable (always severe concern) Sponsorship First priority to pursuance of *Limited and fixed *Little freedom in using commercialization or profit & R&D *Large degree of freedom in R&D funds Fund using R&D funds Influence of Economic Recession Serious Not so serious *Researchers have responsibility *Efforts are focused on until new product is commercialized attaining predetermined and becomes profitable Intention of target →Business-oriented Practical Application *Various R&D can be promoted *Material R&D is easy, but R&D for product concurrently, from material to or system is not easy product or system Shift in Policy /Alliance ( Fairly free Long-term, basic R&D is difficult to conduct ) *Slogan: A hundred yen for success, zero yen for failure Obligation *Clear judgment of success or failure ( Difficult Long-term, basic R&D on the same theme is easy to conduct ) ? 4. Reasons for Participating in the U.S. Albany Project After the Second World War, Japan has continued to grow in a direction headed by the U.S. Thus, by looking at the U.S. from the perspective of HTS technology development competition, a very clear-cut image of Japan’s ideal future can be mapped out. During several years after the Second World War, the U.S. which won the war, established its infrastructure rapidly (Fig. 10). In the electric energy industry, such efforts peaked in the first half of the 70’s. Afterward, having rapidly switched from “power technol- 54 · Toward Practical Application of High-Temperature Superconducting Technology - How to Proceed with Fundamental and Innovative Research and Development that Extends Over Ultra Long Period of Time - ogy (PT)” to “information technology (IT)” in the 80’s, the power industry, which had been supported by heavy industries, started to rapidly crumble. Chasing the U.S. with a delay of 10 to 15 years, Japan had completed building its infrastructure by about 1995, and had also, likewise, switched from PT to IT. However, no matter how sturdy the facilities and system built were, they all have their own technical life, requiring maintenance, renewal, and reinforcement. Figure 11 shows the estimated timing for building and renewing/reinforcing power infrastructures in Japan, the U.S., South Korea, and China in the 100 years of the 21st century. It can be seen that this timing comes in some 30-year cycle. The U.S. has just entered this period of renewal and reinforcement, and on August 8, 2005, the Energy Policy Act of 2005 dealing with these issues was signed into law. As illustrated in Fig. 11, 30 years after rapidly switching from PT to IT, there is now a need to transition from PT through IT to Neo-PT. In the U.S., however, almost no heavy industries to support its power industry have survived. The U.S. has clarified its will to maintain “America as No. 1” by the help of advanced energy-related technologies in the next several decades under the Energy Policy Act. To this end, they are promoting the development and practical application of innovative HTS technology ferociously. As part of these endeavors, there are three ongoing HTS cable projects supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) in the U.S. Due to the absence of heavy industries, however, they have no choice but to depend on offshore manufacturers for substantial aspects ranging from the manufacturing to installation of HTS cables (Fig. 12). IGC/SP (U.S.) Albany Project (U.S.) (U.S.) KEPRI Project (ROK) SEI (ROK) (JPN) (PRC) Investment in Transmission Apparatus ($ in 1992) 3 30 2 20 1 10 0 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates Investment in Power Transmission ≒100B Yen/year Large-scale Reinforcement PT Liberalization Japan USA Electricity Infrastructure Fig. 10. Investment in Generators and Transmission Cables in USA (2000) (until 2010) Halt of Equipment Investment Neo-PT (USA) (USA) IT Renewal Renewal New Technologies “Energy Act” Technology (Enacted on August 8, 2005) PT IT Nano Bio * DC Transmission * HTS Cable * Submarine Cable (Large Capacity/Low Loss /High Reliability) Energy, Resources & Environment 3R+4S (Safety & Security) Life of Power Cable: 30 to 50 years Generation Capacity Increase Ratio of Electrical Demand (% per year) Japan USA Republic of Korea 260GW 860GW 0.7% 2.0% 50GW 4.0% China 320GW Super-long-life Products due to Renewal & Extension Life & Renewal Demand 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 (Puji Sub-station) (Completed) Changtong Cable Project (Chinese Academy of Science) 5 4 Newly Constructed Generation Capacity Up to 6T Yen? Yunnan Power Project 6.0% * Investigated in 2003 Fig. 11. Trend of Electricity Market & Technology NEXANS (France) (Italy) (Withdrawal) Withdrawal from HTSCable Business 100% Subsidiary NKT (Denmark) NST Furukawa CEPCO NEDO Project Pirelli (from 2005) (Completed) (U.S.) (JPN) HTS 6 Investment in Power Transmission (B$) Power Generation Capacity of Newly Constructed Generators (GW) Power Generation Capacity of Newly Constructed Generators ≒60 GW 80 40 LIPA Project (Completed) · In USA, investment in transmission grid stayed at a low level. · Generation capacity stayed at a high level. 50 (Mexico) Acquisition(2002/10) TEPCO Project Inno ST 60 Condumex ULTERA Cable JV Dec. 2002 AMSC Stop Production of 1G in 2005 (2003/7) (U.S.) (JPN) LS Cable Southwire (U.S.) (Spin-off of Cable Business) Ohio Project (DAPAS 100B Won) 70 (Specialized in 2G Wires) Cable Maker Wire Maker Project Fig. 12. Relationship Diagram of HTS Wire & Cable Productions As Japan had followed in the footsteps of the U.S. from PT to IT, Japan is also experiencing the same decline in electric utility industries as the U.S. Fortunately, Japan still retains the best human resources, facilities, and technologies in the world in this area. Energy, resource, and the environment are indispensable to the human community regardless of the era as mentioned earlier. The current century particularly recognizes this. With the whole world entering a period of maintenance, renewal, and the reinforcement of power infrastructures in around 2010, Japan should avoid the same mistakes as made by the U.S. Specifically, Japan should clearly understand the meaning of the basic “PT and IT” policy and the relationship between the two as expressed by the word “and”, and firmly maintain the heavy industries requiring the power infrastructure (Fig. 13) (3), (11). For Japan to survive as an advanced nation given its limited natural resources, it needs to understand the true current situation and relationships between Japan and the U.S. Instead of following in the footsteps of the U.S., it also needs to build a new interdependent relationship between the two countries where Japan supplements the U.S. (11)(13). Figure 14 summarizes why the U.S. will start needing HTS cable, which is expected to eventually arise in the same way in Japan and advanced OECD European countries. The same situation should also eventually arise in BRICs countries, mainly in cities with a population of one million or more. It has never been as important as now for Japan to take the lead and clarify the SEI TECHNICAL REVIEW · NUMBER 64 · APRIL 2007 · 55 concepts of HTS cable grid, accumulate the necessary experience through demonstration tests of HTS cables on actual grids, as well as to steadily retain technical personnel and firmly preserve and pass down technologies and facilities of this industry, under clear-cut objectives and policies. Infrastructure industries for energy (especially electric power) are eternally necessary. They become indispensable among developing countries (like ASEAN) during the 21st century. Present Technological Level Technological levels of Japanese heavy industry and power cable Industry are highest in the world. Japan From PT to IT Power Technology Information Technology IT only? Toward “PT&IT” Must focus on technical R&D from a long-term view. (Emphasis on “sustainability” rather than “growth rate or profit rate”) USA Japan EMI-free Cable (No Magnetic Field Leakage) HTS Cable is Only One Solution ※Replacement of Life-exhausted Power Cables ※Expansion of Capacity (for Increase of Power Demand) Lower Loss Using High Voltage is Difficult From 345 kV/230 kV/132 kV to 66 kV New Lines with Lower Voltage & Higher Capacity Green Pollution EMC (I) Public Opinion Construction of New Power Lines is Difficult (Less Right of Way) Existing Lines Fig. 13. Another Forecast of Future at Which Japan’s R&D Should Aim (1) Power companies are reluctant to do R&D on HTS cables (2) Drastic decrease in equipment investment by power companies (3) No governmental support for vertically integrated R& D on practical use of HTS cables (4) Sumitomo Electric’s strategy to let its HTS cable technology survive (5) Sumitomo Electric’s strategy to accelerate commercialization of HTS tapes (6) Sense of mission to develop innovative infrastructurebased material No HTS R&D by power companies USA From IT to PT Maintaining its position as a technologyoriented worldleader in engineering No governmental supports Future Present Future Prospect of Japan Education & human resources development (International exchange) Private company makes self-supporting efforts Capability Market Future Prospect This was the first time a joint Japan-U.S. consortium carried out development and demonstration tests in the U.S. under the budget support of the U.S. DOE. While participating in a U.S. national project, Sumitomo Electric found apparent differences between the national projects of the two countries. Table 6 summarizes these differences. Strongly characteristic of U.S. projects is that projects are conducted in a vertically integrated way (each of the material production, cable manufacturing, cable system installation, cable cooling and system operation phases is allotted to a single company), and that the development projects are managed according to the “in a good will” rule (tolerance to failure). Under this rule, even if the development ends in failure, paths to acquire financial support from the government to implement countermeasures will remain open, as long as due efforts are made to fulfill specified commitments. If participants decided to withdraw from the project, the decision is accepted and no penalties are imposed as the development theme is taken to have been challenging. National projects in Japan should learn from the U.S. ones in many ways to accomplish true success. (1) Large demand for HTS cable Electricity demand growth/Obsolete apparatus/Blackouts (2) No HTS cable manufacturer exists in USA Participation in HTS cable demonstration test (3) Use of SPI funds according to DOE policy [1] Mass-production of DI-BSCCO HTS tapes using “CT-OP” sintering method and [2] Participation in Albany Project Almost Final Chance to Commercialize HTS Technology Fig. 15. Reason Why Sumitomo Electric Participates in HTS Cable Project in USA Table 6. Comparison of National R&D Project between Japan and USA Fig. 14. Reason Why HTS Cables Need to be Used in US Japan USA Supported by defense funds* (M$) Figure 15 compares the situation in Japan and the U.S. to explain why Sumitomo Electric decided to participate in the U.S. HTS cable project. Installing the whole HTS AC cable system, starting from production of HTS wires, in a real commercial grid in North America for the first time required considerable hard work and firm determination. Sumitomo Electric joined the project with the belief that performing a demonstration test where the potential market actually exists is the closest path to obtain actual demand. In July 2006, two years later, the HTS AC cable started operating in the commercial line for the first time in the world (4)-(7). Fund Public funds 2004 2005 Project Horizontally integrated participants (So called: form of convoy) DOE ≒30 ≒35 DOD 40 or Over Increased Vertically integrated In-grid demonstration test ** Demonstration Special demonstration test & verification (Definitely the best way to test practical application) Evaluation Should be successful on R&D completion of project almost all projects Development-orientated Failure is allowed according to the “in-a-good-will” rule DOE: Department of Energy DOD: Department of Defense * Usually applied only to US domestic makers ** Pre-qualification test 56 · Toward Practical Application of High-Temperature Superconducting Technology - How to Proceed with Fundamental and Innovative Research and Development that Extends Over Ultra Long Period of Time - 5. Requirements for Developing and Diffusing HTS Technology With the enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol, an epoch-making breakthrough in the history of humankind, on February 16, 2005, the visions of the 21st century as the century of energy, resources, and the environment are becoming clearer and clearer (11). Along with this, various related laws and regulations are being enacted, and the development and commercialization of relevant technologies promoted. Also being built are new eco-oriented business models focusing on the CO2 emission-quota-trading (11)-(13). The authors discussed Japan’s CO2 reduction target (-6%) achievement plans and the voluntary CO2 reduction plans (20% reduction in specific CO2 emissions (g-C/kWh)) of the electric utility industry, which are responsible for 1/3 of all CO2 emissions, in compliance with the binding Kyoto Protocol (11)-(13). Moreover, most electric utility plans depend on nuclear power generation and put too much stress on more efficient power generation including thermal plants. Figure 16 shows the improvement of efficiency in power generation and transmission (or transmission loss reduction). The efficiency of power generation already exceeds 50%. In fact, the development and practical application of high efficiency power generation technologies, top class in the world, have been accomplished in Japan. On the other hand, power transmission loss is about 5% of the produced electric energy, which seems to reach the critical limit. In fact, no CO2 reduction guideline based on the application of new power transmission technologies is included in the industry’s voluntary CO2 reduction plans described above. The HTS AC/DC cable will, among its merits, reduce CO2 emissions (this will also inevitably save fuel consumption by electric plants), and resultantly the beneficiary effects will be enormous as shown in both Fig. 16 and Table 3. It is understandable to a certain extent that power companies have the business policies of putting priority on the reliability of the power infrastructure and thus tend to favor technologies that are already used in the industry, as well as their (%) Power Generation Efficiency & Transmission Loss in Japan 51% In Case of Combined- * cycle Power Generation 45 ● 40 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 41.1 35 ● 30 25 ● ● ● Power Generation Efficiency Rate ● Transmission Loss Rate 20 ● ● 15 ● 10 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 5 ● 0 4.9 4.9 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Technical Innovation! HTS Cable Japan’s Total Electricity Supply: 1 Trillion kWh/Year Transmission Loss Reduction of 0.1% Reduction in Carbon Emissions by 120 Thousand Tons Per Year (Saving of 10 Billion Yen) HTS Cable Is Indispensable! Fig. 16. Influence of Electric Utility Industry on Greenhouse Gas Emissions efforts to improve financial performance by suppressing investments in new facilities. However, Japanese utilities who actually have a regional monopoly should reflect on the significance of the Kyoto Protocol and introduce various advanced new technologies in accordance with Japan’s energy conservation scheme called ” Top Runner Program”, for the sake of advancing the national and humanistic causes. These efforts are so seen as justifiable for the future of humankind that sophisticated business decisions need to be made to make frontier efforts of making an initial investment in the application of new technologies. The world-leading advanced environment and energy technologies devised in Japan will eventually serve as a solid foundation that strongly supports this country to establish an initiative in environment and energy fields in North-East Asia. Therefore, the HTS development policy of Japan should not be limited merely to financial support for national projects on HTS material development, but energy- and environment-related laws and regulations should be revised or enacted to provide utilities with incentives to adopt new HTS technologies and products, including HTS cables, based on their voluntary decisions. The early execution of such initiatives is highly expected. One such effort is implementation of the “cap and trade” market system, which is based on the CO2 emission-quota-trading introduced by the Kyoto Mechanism (13) . Early initiatives to enhance the emission trading markets at home and abroad should be taken. Furthermore, measures and policies should be taken to proactively allow the discounted present values (DPV) of long-term probable benefits to be used in the cases where initial investments are massive but the long-term reduction of CO2 emissions can be expected, as is the case for power infrastructure, so as to make the best use of the benefits of the Kyoto Mechanism. (Method to calculate DPV and examples of its use in the “Kyoto Mechanism” are described precisely in the reference (13).) Japan is the only Annex 1 country in Asia to assume the responsibility for CO2 reduction as prescribed in the Kyoto Protocol. If an average reduction of 6%, compared to 1990, over five years from 2008 to 2012 is not attained, it will be necessary to purchase emission credits worth massive amounts (50 billion to 1 trillion yen) from Russia, the only Annex 1 economy that has met its target and has extra emission-right for sale, via emissionquota trading (ET), as shown in Fig. 17. This approach, however, is not a solution that contributes to CO2 reduction or Japan’s technological and economical growth. It is merely something like a transnational environment tax. It is therefore important to have a good understanding on the system of ET and avoid introduction of it. Therefore, it is essential for the Japanese Government to implement effective and promising CO2 reduction measures and policies that incorporate promotion of advanced HTS technologies. Significantly, an array of such actions should clarify the philosophy of both public and private sectors to support these environment and energy related new technologies from a national perspective (11). Numerous new energy-saving technologies and SEI TECHNICAL REVIEW · NUMBER 64 · APRIL 2007 · 57 Kyoto Protocol in consideration of the impact it would have on the current economy. Perhaps, high energy price policies (including environment tax) should inevitably be adopted in one way or another. In order to make energy saving profitable, it is important to build a situation where businesses fairly conduct long-term energy-saving technology development and people comfortably support this development Short-term Activities Table 7. Sustainable Environment Preservation : Introduction of “Bonus & Penalty” Method ① Based on Psychological & Ethical Motivations of Individuals ② Irrelevant to Economic Efficiency ③ Local (Limited to Special Areas) ④ Lack in Understanding of Significance of Sustainable Environmental Activities (Focus is on the Present) Sustainable Long-Term Activities products are being marketed one after the other. They are actually the fruit of development and research on energy-saving technology that the private sector began voluntarily during the oil shocks of the 1970s when energy prices were high. Massive funds and human resources were invested, based on speculations that new energy-saving and alternative energy technologies will pay for themselves. As shown in Fig. 18, there is a need to carefully review whether such energy-saving technology development would be more efficient if conducted in the form of R&D based on deliberate support through public funds based on the nation’s tax under the condition of low energy prices (which means people are not prompted to save energy), or if by leaving it to voluntary technological development based on the economic decisions of businesses and research institutes under the condition of high energy prices (consequently, people are motivated to save energy). This question should be answered from a standpoint that importance is intentionally placed on the future instead of now, and that all energy-saving and environment engineers and technologies in various industries are maintained. This is evidently different from the U.S. decision to withdraw from the ① Clear Definition of “Bonus” & “Penalty” Method ② Relevant to Economic Efficiency (Necessity to Implement High Energy Price Policy) → Voluntary Use of Alternative Energy & Voluntary Start of Independent R&D ③ Globally Common ④ Understanding of Significance of sustainable Environmental Activities (Focus is on the Future) Decrease in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (COP3 : Kyoto Protocol Agreed in 1997) Kyoto Protocol: Enacted on February 16, 2005 (COP3) ➀ Japan should reduce 6% of CO2 during 2008-2012 Europe & (USA) ➁ ET CO2 Emission-Quota-Trade JI Japan Japan <Buyer> Russia (500M$-10B$/Yr) Russia <Seller> ➂ Joint Implementation NIES CDM Table 8. Policy of High Energy Price as Environmental Measure CO2 Emission Rights Trading ➃ Clean Development Mechanism Environmental Investment ➄ Japanese Government actively supports Developing Countries & subsidizes “Environmentally Friendly” Investment! Favorable Wind to HTS Technologies Fig. 17. Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Mechanism Low Price (15 yen/kWh) High Price (50 yen/kWh) Effect on Decreasing Electricity Consumption Not Effective Effective Effect on Energy Saving Small Effect Large Effect Attractiveness of Energy-Saving-Products Low High Enthusiasm for Introducing Energy-efficient Technology into Utility Infrastructures Low High Motivation to Conduct R&D on Energy-SavingTechnology Low High Public Funds Own Funds /A Limited Number /A Large Number of Researchers of Researchers R&D ➂ Basic Policies COP → ※ Energy Conservation ※ New Energy (Renewable Energy) ※ Self-support ※ Sustainability ※ Life-Style Improvement ➀ High Energy Price Policy Judgmental Standard With Regard to Energyrelated Issues Energy Price Oil Coal Natural Gas ※ Introduction of Green Tax ※ Price-Rise Proportional to Energy Consumption ※ Increase in Gasoline Tax, Automobile Tax, etc. ※ Introduction of IT (Information Technology) Tax ※ Exhaustion of Fossil Fuels → Rise of Energy Cost Electricity Prices Gas National Tax Decline in R&D Motivation NEDO Less Profitability in New Energy Support (Fund) Decline in Energy-saving Motivation ➁ Low Energy Price Policy ※ Low Price at Night ※ Discount for Large-scale Consumers ➀➁➂ Opposes to Capitalism, Self-support, & Sustainability Liberalization (Electricity & Gas) Globalization & Intensified Competition High Price Policy < > Low Price + Tax (Which is Preferable?) Fig. 18. How to Do R&D on Energy-oriented Theme to Solve Environmental Issues Basic (Material) R&D Public Funds /University R&D Independent & Competitive R&D Electricity price is set low until monthly per capita electricity consumption reaches 500 kWh. Cap Surplus electricity consumption quota can be Some Amount of bought and sold (at a high price). Electricity Allowed to be Consumed * Protection of the economically vulnerable group (Social welfare) & Trade * Profit for saving consumption (Bonus) Buying and Selling Penalty for overconsumption (Penalty) of Surplus Electricity Increase of willingness to save electricity As “Consumption Long-term environmental preservation Quota” Promotion of motivation to develop energy saving technology Sustainability 58 · Toward Practical Application of High-Temperature Superconducting Technology - How to Proceed with Fundamental and Innovative Research and Development that Extends Over Ultra Long Period of Time - and actively utilize the gained results. To this aim, there is a need to implement a “bonus and penalty” system that takes into consideration economic viability to ensure long-term effectiveness, instead of (short-term) policies that prompt interested parties to save energy just out of the ethical and psychological sense of obligation (Table 7). Furthermore, the government should come up with initiatives that allow the individuals and companies who proactively implemented energy-saving equipment and activities to receive appropriate profits according to the degree of their efforts. For instance, if a certain amount of inexpensive electric power is allotted to each party, but use exceeds the amount assigned, the party should be imposed with penalties in the form of having to purchase emission rights or pay high energy bills, which is equivalent to the emission right (Table 8). On the other hand, those who have been able to save electric power should be allowed to sell such an amount as the emission right (Bonus) (14). The “cap and trade” system will ensure that individuals, businesses, and institutes continue their energy saving efforts, leading to permanent enthusiasm to the consistent development and use of low-loss, energy-saving technologies like HTS. Also expected is that this would naturally initiate effects to expand and deepen the horizons of the group of energy and environment engineers who support these endeavors, including the increase in the next generation engineers. Also cannot be overlooked is this system’s compassion for economically vulnerable groups. As mentioned earlier, should the applications of HTS technology become rivals of existing technology, there may develop various restrictions and resistances. Figure 19 summarizes the general types of resistance towards new technologies generated in existing markets. From a long-term perspective, in order to eliminate these restrictions and resistances and promote the use of new technologies like HTS, support from public funds is ideal. Table 9 compares the situations at the time of introduction of the PPLP cable, which outrivaled existing technologies and became popular, and HTS cable, which is gradually becoming popular. The greatest factor that decides whether a new technology becomes popular or not would be the result of comparison between initial capital investment for adopting a new product (HTS cable) that does not provide benefit from volume efficiency yet and capital investment for adopting (or replacing with) an existing mass-produced product. The greatest obstacle in the way is that most engineers in charge of existing technologies and products at companies with considerable shares in industry become strong advocates of existing technologies. Rather than attempting to improve drawbacks of the new technologies or nurture new technologies, they only criticize the drawbacks from a specialist standpoint. In this sense, the greatest rivals in the competition between new technologies and existing technologies are engineers. Although this may sound unfair to the developers of new technologies, it is a fact and must be resolved in a cautious manner. (For HTS, engineers of copper conductors as well as those of low-temperature superconducting technology (LTS) can pose obstacle.) When replacing massive infrastructure facilities with new technologies and products, there is a need to carry out verifications of performance and long-term reliability using actual equipment as well as to implement the necessary enhancements until new technologies and products are capable for general use (Fig. 20). After overcoming the short-term problems, there will then be Table 9. Bottleneck and Breakthroughs in Adoption of New Product into Existing Market Merit [A] New products for accomplishing the impossible To launch without facing constraints (in the fields including medical, military and MRI/NMR) [B] Replacement of existing products or systems with new ones (High performance but high initial investment) Assertions made by members in existing market (1) Many businesses are involved in existing market They want to defend both vested interests and acquired market shares Merits of widespread use of innovative technology cannot be understood easily General idea is agreed on, but details are compromised Mentality of victim (2) Engineers and related personnel adhere to current technologies (3) In most cases, users want low initial cost (4) Reliability assurance based on long-term past product performance is strongly required (5) Even if modification is partial, total revalidation-test must be conducted ➀ Manufacturers must show enterprising spirit and practically apply new technology without being discouraged by demand for initial cost reduction <Support from public funds> ➁ At first, should limit applications to sure and concrete cases, so that full and complete success is achieved Fig. 19. Constraints Placed on Launch of New Products from Existing Market (1) PPLP Insulated OF Cable HTS Cable Low-Loss & High Breakdown Strength Ultra Low-Loss & Large Power Carrying Capacity Competing Kraft Paper Insulated OF Rival Cable Product Bottleneck Higher Insulation Cost (Increase in Initial Investment) Copper Conductor Cable Higher Cable Cost (Increase in Initial Investment) ➀ Demonstration Test → (Performance Verification) ➀ Trial Adoption → Practical Results ➁ Comparison of Merits (Reliability) Study on Application of “Kyoto Mechanism” ➁ Detailed Comparison of Merits between New → To Promote Adoption in USA and Existing Cables Breakthrough → Adoption outside ➂ Improvements of Japan Critical Current (Ic) and Other Figures of ➂ Cost-Reduction by Merit Mass-production ➃ Cost-Reduction by ➃ Support from Utility Mass-production Company’s R&D Funds ➄ Introduction of Public Funds Status Quo Dominant in OF Cable at Home and Abroad First Trial Adoption by Enterprising Utility Power Company is Under Study SEI TECHNICAL REVIEW · NUMBER 64 · APRIL 2007 · 59 Necessary R&D Cost / Capital Investment / Improvement Cost Study, Publicizing and Enhancement of Merits of HTS-applied Systems ※ Reexamination of Technology ※ Economical Situation ※ Power Company’s PolicyPower Comolicy ※ Nation’s Policy Investment in HTS Wire Production Facilities Private Sector Business Activities ➂ For Completion of HTS-applied System & Its Verification Who Should Bear Cost? Toward Introduction of “US-style Vertically Integrated Support by Public Funds” (Emphasis on Application of Technology) a need to make managing or commercial decisions to realize the use of the new technologies and products. Unless this goes smoothly, it will be difficult for HTS wire manufacturers to implement the massive capital investments in mass production and cost reductions. Again, the ideal solution for this would be the U.S.-style vertically integrated support by public funds which focuses on application of technology. Taking 1G BSCCO (Bi2223) as an example, Fig. 21 explains that the government tends to provide support until the stage to verify that the components are scientifically valid (this support consisted of not only funds but also support through legal and commercial systems), but no support beyond that point, leaving private companies to handle the tasks of commercialization, application and wide adoption thereafter. Therefore, it is essential to have multiple HTS players join the user side to shift the cen- Decision Commercialize or Not? Technology Needs Investment Profitability ➃ (For Wide Adoption) Merits for LongReliability Actual Achievement in Practical Use and & time Use Verification are Necessary to Convince Users <What Merits Does 2G HTS Hold Over 1G HTS?> ➄ It is Important Not to Focus Solely on Development and Publicizing of 2G HTS Wire and Not to Misguide “HTS Technological R&D & HTS Commercializing Efforts” ter of gravity away from the favor of engineers trying to protect existing technologies and products, so that new products like HTS can be put to other applications and diffused for the first time in the world (Fig. 21). In this sense, public support in terms of policies and funds is strongly required. On the other hand, if HTS development succeeds in making the impossible possible and spreads in use, its applications should bring about advantages that work like sovereign remedies (Table 1). The following sections list examples of HTS applications. (1) All electric power generators in the electricity industry produce massive current (above 10,000 amperes) at low voltage (below several ten thousand volts). Consequently, the primary side of the voltage step-up transformer, namely, power cable connecting the generator and transformer (metal bus) incurs loss that is proportionate to the square of current, and requires a forced cooling system to hold down heat generation. This is one area which can be completely substituted by HTS cables for low-voltage, high-current electric energy, and should probably be one of the quickest applications of HTS due to the cable’s genuine ability to contribute greatly to the reduction of CO2 emissions in addition to the cable’s compactness. (2) Its compact and lightweight, loss-free, low-voltage, high-capacity features allow HTS cables to be ideal for power supply in vertical structures or shafts going up several hundred meters (e.g. skyscrapers and pumped-storage power plant drawer). (3) Another application area where HTS becomes exclusive may be the super eco-ship’s propulsion motor used in contra-rotating propeller systems (Fig. 22), due to its compact size and lightweight, ability to provide large output power stably over a Fig. 20. Constraints Placed on Launch of New Products from Existing Market (2) R&D 1986 Supported by Nation <Present> Application Phenomenon Performance Product System Universities Public Research Organizations ○ ○ HTS Super Eco-Ship (Illustration) ・Low Loss (15% to 30% Reduction) ・Liquid Nitrogen Cooling (Low Cost & Easy to Handle) ・Compact & Lightweight (Volume: Reduced to 1/10; Weight: Reduced to 1/5) ・Silent & Almost No Magnetic Flux Leakage <Upstream Raw Material Suppliers> Bi, Sr Bi-2223 Cable Liquid Nitrogen Cooled HTS Motor 600ø x 0.6 m Nominal Power: 12.5 kW (Overload: 62.5 kW) x 100 RPM (Temp. of LiN2: 66 K) Ca, Cu Bi-2212 Bi-2223 Cable < HTS Tape Manufacturers < > Heavy Products Medical Electric Machinery Apparatus Manufactures > ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ < System Installation Engineering Maintenance Constructors Users Support by Nation is Requested <From Now on> Builders/ Automobile Semiconductor Power Ship Shipping Utilities Industries Industries Agents > Train Mining Industries Hospitals Public Companies (Separation) Organizations Fig. 21. Many Players are Required in Promoting Wider Use of HTS Pod Propulsion System Containing HTS Motor 800ø x 2 m Dia. of Propeller: 1 m Fig. 22. Development of Liquid Nitrogen Cooled HTS Motor (for Actual Use, Mainly in Vessels) (Development Consortium Members: Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries, Sumitomo Electric, Taiyo Nippon Sanso, Nakashima Propeller, Niigata Power Systems, Hitachi, University of Fukui and Fuji Electric Systems) 60 · Toward Practical Application of High-Temperature Superconducting Technology - How to Proceed with Fundamental and Innovative Research and Development that Extends Over Ultra Long Period of Time - wide speed range from low to high speeds hence requiring no transmission, and eco-friendly features such as energy saving and low CO2 emissions. The HTS propulsion motor is expected to provide fuel reduction of 20% to 30%, and the HTS propulsion system for ships and vessels has already been proposed for use in all ocean vessels by the environment protocol which will follow the COP3 Kyoto Protocol, effective after 2012. Most vessels in the 21st century may adopt this system. On December 10 of 1997, the year in which the Kyoto Protocol was agreed, Toyota Motor Corporation released Prius, an epoch-making hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), for the first time in Japan, igniting the trend towards motor-driven engines (Fig. 23). On February 16 of 2005, the year when the Kyoto Protocol was enforced, the DI-BSCCO HTS ship propulsion motor successfully completed test drives. It can be called the Prius of the sea, again made in Japan. The use of the ultimate HTS motors instead of currently available copper wire motors suggests an ideal future propulsion system for all movable bodies. Japan must therefore be the first to perfect this innovative advanced technology in the world, however high its barrier might be. one standard nuclear power generator) requires massive currents of several ten thousand amperes or more (probably direct current (DC)) to be collected, transmitted, and distributed. This can be realized absolutely solely by HTS DC cables with tremendously high DC carrying capacity and absolutely no power transmission loss, but never with copper conductor power cables that exhibit very large power transmission loss (Fig. 24). Conventional Nuclear Plant of 20th Century Electricity of 1 GW is generated at a plant at sea side and transmitted over a long distance through highvoltage, low-current OHL. Wind Farm & Solar Farm of 21st Century Overhead Line (OHL) 500 to 1,000 kV 1,000 to 2,000 A S/S Underground Transmission Cable (1GW Nuclear Plant) Output Voltage Several 100 V to Several kV Electricity of 1 GW is generated by 10 to100 units of generators located at offshore, desert or other remote areas. 500 to 1,000kV OHL Submarine cable (1 kV x 1 Million A) Substation (Voltage Increase) DC Cable (1kV x 1 Million A) Solar Farm Wind Farm Conventional Cu or Al cables have large transmission loss and extremely large number of cables need to be installed Transmission over a long distance can be achieved through low-voltage highcurrent HTS DC cable. HTS Cable (small loss and compact) One-fourth of CO2 Emissions Come from Transportation Fuel Efficiency of Automobiles, Ships, Airplanes, etc. Need to be Improved Protocol Monumental Achievement Agreement of Kyoto Protocol (December 10) (COP3) Toyota Announced Release of HEV“Prius” Date 1997 Enforcement of Kyoto (February 16) Protocol 2005 Sumitomo Electric & IshikawajimaHarima Heavy Industries Announced Success of Test Drives of HTS Propulsion Motor Future Trend Shift To All-Electric Vehicle (EV), Including Fuel Cell Car All Conveyance Shift From Current Diesel-Engine Ship Propulsion to Future Electric Motor Driven Propulsion Automobiles Vessels Trains Toward “HTS Motor” Drive HTS Motor (LiN2 Cooled) Super-Eco-Ship Clean Fuel Efficiency Improvement (CO2 Reduction) by 30%-40%: Green No Waste/Non-toxic: Safety Non-combustion Motor << Japan-Born Advanced Innovative Technology of 21st Century >> Fig. 23. Historical Significance of HTS Motor (4) Wind power generation and solar batteries are examples of potential new clean energies in the 21st century. To generate recyclable new energies in quantity sufficient to satisfy social needs, there is a need to build massive wind farms and solar farms of 1,000,000 kW (= 1,000 MW = 1 GW) scale. In Europe, there are actual plans to build several hundred offshore wind power generators in the North Sea. However, new energies are generally low in voltage (several hundred volts (V) to several kilovolts (kV)), and one 1-GW scale farm (equivalent to Fig. 24. 1-GW Low-voltage, High-current Transmission System Using HTS DC Cable at & from Wind & Solar Farms (5) As a further application, in the magnificent project Global Energy Network Equipped with Solar Cells and International Superconductor Grids (abbreviated “GENESIS” from the Book of Genesis in the Old Testament), the solar power networks are being proposed based on the use of HTS DC cables. The project ambitiously aims to link massive solar and wind farms in deserts and all available fields in remote areas where times (day or night) and seasons (summer or winter) differ to provide all necessary energy required by (future) humankind all over the world. In case of solar electric energy only, merely 4% of the existing desert land area needs to be used (Fig. 25) (19), (20). G lobal E nergy N etwork E quipped with S olar-cells and I nternational S uperconductor-grids HTS Cable Grid International Superconductor Grids will make the global electricity, flowing from Day to Night and Sunshine to Rainy with very little loss, possible. Only 4 % of the world’s desert area can satisfy the world’s demand of electricity generated with Solar Cell of 10% efficiency. Toward Materialization of “GENESIS” Project Electricity England & The European Continent The Asian Continent The American Continent Japan Private Houses Solar-battery Array Transmission Country-size Power Network Station Global-size Power Network “HTS DC Cable” + “Solar Battery Farm” “GENESIS” Project Local-size Power Network ※ Global Energy Network Equipped with Solar-cells and International Superconductor-grids Fig. 25. GENESIS Project SEI TECHNICAL REVIEW · NUMBER 64 · APRIL 2007 · 61 Copper, said to be “one of the leading metal of metals” and boasting of a history of more than several thousand years, is in the very midst of being replaced by non metallic substances. In the past 30 years of involvement in cable R&D, the author witnessed twisted-pair copper cables being replaced by optical glass fibers in the telecommunication area, and traditional copper conductor electric power cables being replaced by HTS ceramic wires in the power industry. In addition, metal vacuum tubes had been drastically replaced with non-metallic silicone-based semiconductors (Fig. 26). Human civilization has never once witnessed such a great innovation in technology as this switch from metal to non-metal. Thus no one ever imagined at the beginning that the birth of optical fibers, one of the precedential non-metal materials developed, would bring about today’s epoch-making information-technology (IT) revolution. Such is being the case, in the field of power industry, HTS has a big chance of bringing about the frontieropening power-technology (PT) revolution in the very near future. HTS is slightly difficult to apply because it needs cooling. And because HTS materials are much more complicated than glass, they are taking much more time to be applied diversely compared to optical fibers (Fig. 1). However, its notable characteristic of having zero resistance, which means that the denominator is made zero whereas the numerator is finite, is such a S Semi (Silico icon n) duc tor Automotive Wiring Harness Sumi-Altough Ene rgy Elec tron ics ) bon Car Energy T (CN Overhead Line Electronic Wire Communications Ce r (HTamic S) s CNT 0.2 Normal Al Cu 0.6 1 0.3 1 200 2.5 ~ 50 2 1 Tensile Strength 1 200 1 1 HTS AC/DC Cable Motor Transformer Communications Environmental Issues (10 Million Barrel/day) Maintenance → Life Extension or Renewal 12 11 10 9 8 7∼ 0∼ 2002 2010 2020 2030 (Year) Increase in Energy Demand Sustainability R&D of New Technology (1) Preservation of Engineers and Industries (2) Countermeasures for Increasing Population and Energy Consumption (3) Environmentally Friendly 120 (Billion) 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1970 1995 2025 2050 2100 2150 (Year) Increase in Population Fig. 27. Necessity of Passing On of Present Technology and Development of New Technology to Future Generation Optical Device Optical Fiber Energy Laser 7. Conclusions (*Biotechnology) MRI / NMR Normal Normal Merit Figure *Energy Saving *Resources Conservation (Lightweight & Compact) *Environment 3R · Reduction · Reuse · Recycle ADSL Energy Communications Long Term Prospect Increasing CO2 Emissions → Global Warming Life Nuclear Plant Electric Power Expectancy (30 to 40 System years) Conductor, Wiring Harness PLC Cu Non-metal ss 0.9 Near Future Automotive Wiring Harness la Weight Present Overhead Line Al G Materials for Infrastructures (400-year history) Wide-band-gap Semiconductor (SiC, GaN) Conductivity ∞ (200) 0.5 ~ 10 Temperature -196˚C Decision Made From the Standpoint of Future Generations * Policy * Government Support Sumitomo Electric HTS Life of Infrastructure Oil 6. Historical Significance of HTS Technology profound mystery that makes the HTS phenomenon and its applications still not fully understood. This symbolizes the strong historical significance of HTS technology. Modern-day engineers should therefore expand upon HTS technology and relevant development topics and pass them down to future researchers and engineers in the 21st century as themes of many dreams and aspirations. The 21st century faces an even harsher environmental impact with increasing population and energy consumption (Fig. 27). It is also a century where humans must deal with the durable life problems of the civilization infrastructure built in the 20th century (including nuclear power generation plants). In this aspect, it cannot be denied that this century may become a period of 100 years with little room for optimism. So to establish and ensure “sustainability” from the future-oriented point of view, there is no other choice but to rely on the development of new advanced technologies. And for this, the focus must be kept on really innovative themes like HTS, and challenges must be made continuously. Researchers and engineers to maintain and pass down such technology must continue to exist, as must such related industries also be retained to foster them (Fig. 27). The preservation of human resource and industry is the crucial point that the people and government must work on together, by devising and steadily implementing fundamental policies and strategies (roadmaps) with all the necessary support from the government. Population (6) There are many other technologies which can only be realized by HTS technology, such as technology for power transmission and storage in space where the atmospheric temperature is cold enough to generate HTS state, high performance NMR or MRI, HTS-levitated linear motor car, and HTS separation of various substances and materials. It is therefore important to note that HTS can never stop offering “the challenging and dreamful themes” consecutively to next generation or future engineers. Separation *Ubiquitous *Safety (*Comfortable) 4S · Safety · Security · Stability · Sustainability Fig. 26. Change & Progression From Copper (Metal) to Non-metals The 21st century, the century of energy, resources, and the environment, is also the century of technological innovation. With the continuing trends of growing population and increasing energy and resource consumption, as well as growing environmental impact, the prerequisite for overcoming this situation is accomplishing innovative technological advancement in a timely fashion 62 · Toward Practical Application of High-Temperature Superconducting Technology - How to Proceed with Fundamental and Innovative Research and Development that Extends Over Ultra Long Period of Time - through the sincere efforts of engineers (Fig. 28). HTS technology is undeniably one such innovative technology, and more time, funds, and human resources must be assigned for its development and practical application. After the potential of new technologies and their necessity to mankind are fully realized, then the government and private sectors will need to establish secure partnerships and share wisdom to overcome the many tribulations faced in the development and practical application of new technologies (Fig. 29). Here’s to believing in the future brought to us by HTS! (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) <Chubu-University> 6 kV x 20 m 1G-HTS DC Cable Basic R&D MEXT DC Cable *Back-to-Back *Demonstration Test of DC Cable for Large Current, Low Voltage Applications Oil Tax (Power Utilities) Implementation of HTS Cable Demonstration Test Using Actual Commercial Line Guidance Feasibility Study & Demonstration Test Toward Reducing Transmission Loss Environment: Kyoto Protocol METI NEDO Toward Practical Use of HTS Cable in Actual Commercial Line Electricity Tax Study & Design of Commercial HTS Cable Line (6) (7) (8) (9) Promotional Measures from Government are Needed Power Utilities Toward Early Practical Use of HTS Cables AC Cable HTS Motor, etc. “Vertically-Integrated R&D” & “Concurrent R&D” 3-Core HTS AC 66kV Cable Project (TEPCO/Sumitomo Electric) Albany HTS Cable Project (Sumitomo Electric/SuperPower) Tax Deduction (10) (11) Subsidy Fig. 28. Measures to Promote Application of HTS Technology (Primarily in Japanese Power Industry) (12) (13) (14) (15) Significance of HTS Technology Abundant Resources Harmless Past 50 years of R&D Material that Supports Industrial Infrastructure Clean Green Safe Emergence of Completely New Physical Phenomenon Contribution to Society for 100 to 400 Years to Come New Business Model Industry Rightness (Dream) (16) HTS Tape <DI-BSCCO> Unique and Original Production Method <<Upstream Technology>> (17) (18) Abundant Supply of Excellent Material (19) <<Downstream Applications>> (20) Transportation Science Medical Science References Yamazaki, Kobayashi, Kato, et al., “Development of Bi-based Superconducting Wires”, SEI Technical Review Vol. 164, March 2004 Ayai, Hayashi, Kobayashi, Hata, et al., “Achievement of HTS Wire Critical Current Exceeding 200A”, SEI Technical Review Vol. 169, July 2006 Hata, “My Expectations for Engineers of the 21st Century: View of An Engineer Involved in R&D by Manufacturer during the Postwar Period of Revival and Rapid Growth”, Journal of the Japanese Society for Engineering Education, No. 54-3, 2006 Hata, “High Temperature Superconducting Power Transmission Cables Started to Operate in 2006, in Korea and the United States”, IERE Eastern Asia (Taipei) Forum, S4-2, 2006 Masuda, Yumura, et. al., “Fabrication and Installation Results for ALBANY HTS Cable”, ASC 2006, ILB02, 2006 Masuda, Yumura, Watanabe, et. al., “Development of HTS Cable System for ALBANY Project”, Annual Conference of Power and Technology Society, The Institute of Electrical Engineering of Japan (IEEJ) No.479, 2006 Isojima, Hirose, Ohkura, Yamada, et al., “Technology and Development Trend of High-Temperature Superconducting Cable”, SEI Technical Review Vol. 165, September 2004 Watanabe, Takigawa, Ashibe, Ito, Suzawa, Yatsuka, et al., ” Construction of 22.9-kV HTS Cable System for KEPCO Project”, SEI Technical Review Vol. 165, July 2006 Jae-young Yoon, Jong-yul Kim and Seung-Ryul Lee, “The Future of Cable in Korea”, Transmission & Distribution World, July 2005 Hirose, Hata, Masuda, et al., “Study on Commercialization of High-temperature Superconductor”, SEI Technical Review Vol. 62, June 2006 Hata, “The Kyoto Protocol and the Northeast Asia Energy, Resource, Environmental and Economic Cooperation Region: A Study on the DC Power Transmission System for International Interconnection”, SEI Technical Review Vol. 61, January 2006 Hata, “Solid DC Submarine Cable Insulated with Polypropylene Laminated Paper (PPLP)”, SEI Technical Review Vol. 62, June 2006 Hata, “CO2 Emission Reduction Using PPLP Solid DC Cable and Kyoto Mechanism”, SEI Technical Review Vol. 63, December 2006 Shingu, “Saving is the Best Resource (1)”, Denki-Hyoron, May 2006 Okazaki, “Consideration of HTS Drive System for Movable Bodies”, SEI Technical Review Vol. 168, March 2006 Okazaki, “Study on Application of HTS Drive System for Movable Bodies”, SEI Technical Review Vol. 62, June 2006 “Development of World's First “Liquid Nitrogen Cooled HTS Motor” on The Level of Actual Use”, OHM, March 2005 E. A. Brez, “Super Conductors on the High Seas”, IEEE Spectrum, January 2004 Kuwano, “Use of Solar Battery (New Version)”, Kodansha’s BLUE BACKS, 1999 Kitazawa, “Japan through Eyes of Scientist & Dream of Economy”, Maruzen, 2002 CO2 Fixation Cable Separation Train Automobile Ship NMR MRI HTS AC/DC From Tarsand MAGLEV Electric HTS Propulsion Cable to Oil Vehicle Super Eco-Ship Fig. 29. Significance of HTS Technology Contributor R. HATA • Dr. Eng., Managing Executive Officer and Deputy General Manager, R&D Unit SEI TECHNICAL REVIEW · NUMBER 64 · APRIL 2007 · 63