Fall 2008 Diary Market Sample Performance and Improvement Steps February 2009

Transcription

Arbitron Diary Service
Fall 2008 Diary Market
Sample Performance and
Improvement Steps
February 2009
Tom O’Sullivan, Vice President, Diary Market Development
Dr. Ed Cohen, Vice President, Research Policy and Communication
1
© 2009 Arbitron Inc.
Customer Feedback
• Consistent feedback from the Radio Advisory
Council, the Diary Market Owner Operator Caucus,
Group customers and individual owners
» Sample Quality is “Job One”
» Provide regular sample performance updates to enhance
transparency
» Set performance benchmarks to gauge progress
» Urgent need to include Cell Phone Only Homes in the diary
market sample
2
Agenda
• Diary market sample benchmarks
• Fall 2008 18-54 sample performance versus
benchmarks
• Diary quality improvement initiatives
• Implementation milestones
• Communication timeline
3
Five Action Steps for Diary Market
Sample Quality Improvement
1. Extra sample in selected markets to boost 18-54
2. Cell phone only sampling for all diary markets in
Continental U.S., Hawaii and Alaska scheduled
for 2009
3. Redirecting cash incentives to boost 18-34
sample size
4. Young Male Promised Incentive
5. Second Chance Diary
4
Diary Market
Sample Benchmarks
5
What “Benchmark” Means
• The level below which we plan to take corrective
measures
• A Benchmark is NOT the target… our goal is
always to achieve 100% of sample target
• Used to gauge sample size performance
6
Persons 18-54 Diary Market
Sample Benchmark
• Benchmark for Persons 18-54 will be an 80 DDI
(Designated Delivery Index) effective with the fall
2008 survey
» Same metric used to gauge PPM sample size performance
» DDI = (In-tab for persons 18-54 / sample target for 18-54) X
100
• Should the actual sample performance fall below
the 80 DDI level in a given market/survey, we
intend to focus our efforts to bring the sample
performance above that threshold in subsequent
surveys
7
Diary Sample Improvement Steps
Step 1) Extra sample for selected markets
to boost 18-54
8
Extra Sample For Selected Markets
To Boost 18-54 Sample
• If a market’s in-tab consistently falls below the DDI
benchmark for persons 18-54…
» We plan to increase the total metro sample (Persons 12+) in
subsequent quarterly surveys
» The sample increase will be designed to produce an 80 DDI or
higher among persons 18-54 in that market
• If sample quality initiatives work as we hope and
18-54 DDI performance rises accordingly we may
not need to continue using extra sample to
maintain the 18-54 in-tab above the threshold
9
Extra Sample Plans for
Winter and Spring 2009
• Winter 2009
» Persons 12+ sample increased in 27 markets based on
historical 18-54 DDI sample performance
• Spring 2009
» Plan to increase persons 12+ sample where historical persons
18-54 DDI was below 80
10
•
For markets where Cell Phone Only Sampling has not been
scheduled in Spring 2009
•
Continuous Measurement markets: Based on Su 08/Fa 08
performance
•
Standard and Condensed markets: Based on Sp 08/Fa 08
performance
Fall 2008 18-54 sample
performance versus
benchmark
11
Persons 18-54 DDI Trends
All Diary Markets
Persons 18-54 DDI
100
92
90
89
90
WI07
SP07
SU07
86
89
FA07
WI08
84
86
84
SP08
SU08
FA08
75
50
25
0
FA06
12
Fall 2008 Average 18-54 DDI
Consistent By Market Type
FA08
13
Avg. P18-54 DDI across all 288 markets
84
Avg. P18-54 DDI in 4 book markets (83)
85
Avg. P18-54 DDI in 2 book standard markets (86)
85
Avg. P18-54 DDI in condensed markets (119)
84
71 Markets in Fall 2008 Survey
Below 80 DDI for Persons 18-54
Fall 2008: Markets below 80 DDI
Persons 18-54
Total
Four book m arkets
Standard tw o book m arkets
Condensed m arkets (2 bk average)
14
71 out of 288 m arkets
25%
11%
27%
33%
Diary Market DDI Benchmark Report
Available from Your Arbitron Rep
15
Step 2) Cell Phone Only Sampling
16
The Number of People with Cell
Phone Only is Growing Rapidly
National Health Interview Survey data
%of U.S. Persons 18+ Without Landline Telephones
20
16.1% of persons 18+
are Cell Phone Only
15
10
5
0
1963 1970 1975 1980 19851986
17
1997 2001 Early Early
2003 2008
Cell Phone Only Trends Since 2003
% of Persons 18+ with Cell Phone Only
20
Percentage
15
16.1
14.5
11.8
10
12.6
9.6
6.7
5
3.5
2.8
4.4
7.7
5.4
0
1H
2003
2H
2003
1H
2004
2H
2004
1H
2005
2H
2005
1H
2006
2H
2006
CPO P18+
18
Source: National Health Interview Survey
National Center for Health Statistics
1H
2007
2H
2007
1H
2008
W
I
SP9 6
SU96
FA96
W 96
I
SP9 7
SU97
FA97
W 97
I
SP9 8
SU98
FA98
W 98
I
SP9 9
SU99
FA99
W 99
I
SP0 0
SU00
FA00
W 00
I
SP0 1
SU01
FA01
W 01
I
SP0 2
SU02
FA02
W 02
I
SP0 3
SU03
FA03
W 03
I
SP0 4
SU04
FA04
W 04
I
SP0 5
SU05
FA05
W 05
I
SP0 6
SU06
FA06
W 06
I
SP0 7
SU07
FA07
W 07
I
SP0 8
SU08
FA08
08
Arbitron sample Proportionality %
Rise in CPO Associated With Decline
of Young Adult Proportionality
18-24 and 25-34 Proportionality Trends
120
100
19
80
60
40
Persons 25-29 Cell Phone Only = 35%
NHIS Estimate
20
P18-24 Cell Phone Only 31%
NHIS Estimate
0
M1824
M2534
W1824
W2534
Plans to Include Cell Phone Only
Sampling in Diary Markets
• 151 diary markets scheduled to begin with Spring
2009 survey
• Remainder of markets scheduled for Fall 2009
• To see when your market is scheduled to receive
Cell Phone Only Sampling go to:
» www.arbitron.com/home/cell_phone_markets.htm
• Special presentation on Cell Phone Only Sampling
planned for mid-March (details coming soon)
20
Step 3) Young Male Promised Incentive
21
Young Male Promised Incentive
• The Young Male Promised Incentive is additional
money for people in homes with a male 18-34
» Cash is still sent with the diary package
» $10 extra to everyone in a Male 18-34 household who returns
a diary
• Spring 2008
» Implemented in 117 two book markets (Standard and
condensed)
• Fall 2008 and Spring 2009
» 23 markets added
» 140 total
22
Young Male Promised Incentive
Helped to Improve Proportionality
Proportionality in YMPI Markets
Fall 2007
Before YMPI
23
Fall 2008 Pts. Gained
With YMPI
M 18-24
46.0
52.5
+ 6.5
M 25-34
57.1
59.2
+ 2.1
Step 4) Redirecting cash incentives to
boost 18-34 sample size
24
Redirecting Cash Incentives
To Boost 18-34 Sample Size
• Scheduled for Spring 2009
» Reduce cash incentives for people in homes with persons 55+
only
» Redirect funds to maintain Young Male Promised Incentive in
Spring 2009 Cell Phone Only Markets
» Enabled by household enumeration implemented in Winter
2008
•
25
Identify demographic characteristics of household members
Step 5) Second Chance Diary
26
Second Chance Diary
• Gives those who agreed to participate but did not
return diaries another chance to participate
» Asked to participate (second chance) six weeks later
• Second Chance Diary added in all continuous
metros in Spring 2008
• In markets where Second Chance Diary was
implemented we saw some gains in response rates
and proportionality among young adult, black and
Hispanic sample
27
Implementation Milestones
Diary Market Sample
Improvement
28
Diary Market Sample Improvement
Spring 2008 Milestones
• Sample Increase in 47 markets
• Second Chance Diary
» 94 four book markets
• Expanded Young Male Promised Incentive
» 117 two book markets
29
Fall 2008 Milestones
• Second Chance Diary
» 94 CM Markets
• Expanded Young Male Promised Incentive to 23
more markets - 140 total markets
• Test of “Premium Redistribution”
• Diary Benchmark implemented
» 80 DDI for Persons 18-54 in diary markets
30
Planned: 2009 Milestones
• Winter 2009
» Extra sample ordered in 27 markets
» Designed to produce 80+ DDI among persons 18-54 in these markets
• Spring 2009
» 151 Diary markets scheduled to receive Cell Phone sampling
» For markets not scheduled for Cell Phone Only Sampling, we plan to
order extra sample where historical persons 18-54 DDI fell below the
benchmark
• Based on an average of the two most recent surveys in 2008
» Premium Redistribution expected to start
» Young Male Promised Incentive maintained in 140 markets
• Fall 2009
» All diary markets in continental U.S., Hawaii and Alaska are
scheduled to receive Cell Phone sampling
31
Diary Market
Communication Timeline
• Mid-March
» Presentation on Cell Phone Only Sampling Implementation in
diary markets
• May
» Winter survey diary market update
• Late August/Early September
» Spring 2009 survey update
• Late October/Early November
» Summer 2009 survey update
• February
» Fall 2009 update
32
Five Action Steps for Diary Market
Sample Quality Improvement
1. Extra sample in selected markets to boost 18-54
2. Cell phone only sampling for all diary markets in
Continental U.S., Hawaii and Alaska scheduled
for 2009
3. Redirecting cash incentives to boost 18-34
sample size
4. Young Male Promised Incentive
5. Second Chance Diary
33
In Conclusion…
• These steps represent some of the most
significant investments that Arbitron has
undertaken in its radio diary service
• We trust that these steps demonstrate our
commitment to enhancing confidence in the diary
market service via ongoing improvements in
sample quality
34
Where To Go For Answers
• About this presentation
» Tom O’Sullivan – tom.o’[email protected] / 212-887-1368
» Ed Cohen – [email protected] / 410-312-8592
• Contacts for service/training
» www.arbitron.com/who2call/map_radio.htm
• About the diary service in general
» [email protected]
35

Fall 2008 Diary Market Sample Performance and Improvement Steps February 2009

Transcription

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