Contents

ADMISI Commodity Research
October 13, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Contents (Click on the topic)
1.
Chana (Gram) recap
2.
Market Rates and Arrivals in the Domestic Market
3.
Weather
4.
Spread and Forward curves
5.
Chart and outlook
6.
Disclaimer
1
ADMISI Commodity Research
October 13, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Chana/Gram Recap
NCDEX
Chana
Previous Close Open High
10 MT
Oct-14
2828
2802 2833 2843
Nov-14
2922
2901 2924 2935
Dec-14
2979
2959 2982 2988
Jan-15
3003
2986 3024 3024
Feb-15
3015
3029 3034 3034
Low
Net
Chg.
%
Chg.
Volume
% Vol.
Chg.
2796
2896
2955
2983
3020
-26
-21
-20
-17
14
-0.92
-0.72
-0.67
-0.57
0.46
53020
81370
12740
2280
80
-30.42
-13.85
-26.95
-44.39
60.00
OI
OI
Chg.
36130 -16690
107150 -7000
27630
4750
4000
1310
210
80
Volume Net change = -42750, OI Net change = -17550
Spread
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Nov-14 Dec-14
-99
-157
-58
NCDEX
Chana
Previous Close Open High
1 MT
Oct-14
2818
2812 2820 2830
Nov-14
2922
2902 2922 2934
Dec-14
2980
2960 2996 2996








Jan-15
-184
-85
-27
Feb-15
-227
-128
-70
-43
Low
Net
Chg.
%
Chg.
Volume
% Vol.
Chg.
OI
OI
Chg.
2780
2896
2968
-6
-20
-20
-0.21
-0.68
-0.67
79
870
4
-71.48
-21.05
-42.86
114
305
13
-79
-18
Unch
Chana futures witnessed profit booking on Friday. Total volumes and OI declined on Friday
compared to previous trading day.
Arrivals increased in the spot markets and capped upside.
Stock position of Chana at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 10 October 2014 was 55,186 MT.
NCDEX Chana Indore – NCDEX Mumbai Yellow Peas Spot spread is trading at Rs. 392.4/100
Kg.
As per the 1st Advance Estimates from Ministry of Agriculture production of Kharif Pulses is
forecasted to be 5.20 million MT in 2014-15 compared to 6.02 million MT (4th Advance estimates)
and 5.91 million MT in 2012-13.
They added that production of Tur is forecasted to be 2.74 million MT compared to 3.29 million
MT (4th Advance estimates) and 3.02 million MT in 2012-13. Production of Urad is forecasted to
be 1.15 million MT compared to 1.07 million MT (4th Advance estimates) and 1.43 million MT in
2012-13.
According to Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), Indian
imports of Pulses were 1,067,445 MT during April-July 2014. This is slightly lower compared
1,069,458 MT during April-July 2013. Imports were 311,121 MT in July 2014 compared to
319,650 MT in July 2013.
According to Statpub, international lentil markets eased slightly as the North American harvest
started to wrap up. Saskatchewan's harvest was 96% complete as of October 5, compared to
100% at this time last year and the recent average of 94.2% complete by the first week of October.
2
ADMISI Commodity Research
October 13, 2014





Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Field pea markets were generally unchanged on the week against steady export movement from
both Canada and the United States. This year's harvest is wrapping up in both countries.
Canada's now 92% complete, compared to almost 99% by this time during the past five years and
fully complete at this time last year.
Dry edible bean prices finished the week on an easier note in both international and North
American markets. Excellent harvest progress in the United States has increased the supply of
product available to processors.
Bigger dry edible bean crops in the United States and Canada have pushed available supplies of
dry edible beans for the coming season above the recent average for the continent.
In its latest crop report the USDA pegged bean output in the United States at 1.317 million MT,
while Statistics Canada had pegged Canadian output at 300,500 MT last month. By contrast, dry
bean production in Mexico is expected to be down for the coming season, dropping 10% to 1.2
million MT.
Combined production across the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region is up
6% over last year at a forecast 2.817 million MT. Carry-in stocks from the previous marketing
year are down from last year, with the result the increase in the available supply of beans is only
1% at 2.93 million MT.
Physical Market Rates of Pulses in Domestic Market
Date
11-Oct-14
11-Oct-14
11-Oct-14
11-Oct-14
11-Oct-14
11-Oct-14
11-Oct-14
11-Oct-14
11-Oct-14
11-Oct-14
10-Oct-14
10-Oct-14
10-Oct-14
10-Oct-14
10-Oct-14
10-Oct-14
Commodity
Chana Indore
Chana Ganjbasoda
Chana Dewas
Chana Jhansi
Chana Kanpur
Chana Bikaner
Chana Dollar Indore
Chana Dollar Dewas
Tur Kanpur
Urad Kanpur
Gram Desi Delhi NCDEX Spot
Gram Kantawala Indore NCDEX Spot
Gram Desi Bikaner NCDEX Spot
Masoor Indore NCDEX Spot
Yellow Peas Kanpur NCDEX Spot
Yellow Peas Mumbai NCDEX Spot
Rate
2620
2475
2452
2400
2675
2605
5170
4520
4120
4100
2924
2825
2780
5594
2775
2433
Units
INR/100 Kg
Source: Reuters
3
ADMISI Commodity Research
October 13, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Market Arrivals of Chickpea (Chana) in Domestic Markets (Source: Agmarknet)
Arrivals in MT as
on 10 Oct 2014
Bengal Grams (Chana)
Koilkunta
150.00
Dahod
56.80
Jam Khambalia
2.00
Rajkot
96.00
Bokaro
16.00
Chaibasa
13.50
Jamshedpur
3.00
Ranchi
41.00
Bangalore
61.00
Bamora
3.70
Bina
38.40
Dewas
8.00
Gotegaon
6.50
Jeerapur
3.90
Kareli
161.80
Pachaur
7.00
Ratlam
1.00
Bhilwara
1.00
Bikaner
45.20
Chomu
1.70
Gangapur City
7.70
Jodhpur
5.00
Kishan Renwal
27.60
Kishangarh Renwal
1.10
Pilli Banga
6.00
Achalda
1.80
Agra
62.00
Aligarh
40.00
Auraiya
50.00
Baberu
3.00
Ballia
9.00
Baraut
3.00
Bharwari
6.00
Bindki
40.00
Buland Shahr
6.50
Chandoli
1.50
Dadri
15.00
Dibiapur
6.00
Etah
1.60
Etawah
3.50
Gazipur
3.00
Gorakhpur
72.00
Haathras
5.00
Market Center
4
ADMISI Commodity Research
October 13, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Arrivals in MT Contd….
Hapur
16.00
Jahanabad
5.00
Jasvantnagar
2.50
Javer
2.00
Khair
8.00
Khurja
2.70
Mirzapur
2.00
Muradabad
6.00
Muzzafarnagar
7.00
Naugarh
4.00
Partaval
5.00
Pilibhit
2.00
Saharanpur
9.00
Sambhal
2.00
Shahjahanpur
2.30
Kabuli Chana (Chickpeas-White)
Indore
250.00
Khategaon
9.87
Ratlam
64.30
Ujjain
36.00
Weather
Source: IMD
5
ADMISI Commodity Research
October 13, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Spreads and Forward Curves
NCDEX Chana Spreads
Source: Reuters
Historical c2-c3 Spread Seasonality
Source: Reuters
Comments: - The October – November (c1 – c2) spread settled at -99. The November – December (c2 –
c3) spread settled at -58. The December – January (c3 – c4) spread settled at -27. The January –
February (c4 – c5) spread settled at -43.
6
ADMISI Commodity Research
October 13, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
NCDEX Chana Forward Curves
Source: Reuters
Historical c1 Seasonality Chart
Source: Reuters
7
ADMISI Commodity Research
October 13, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Charts & Outlook
Chana (10 MT)
Source: Reuters
Source: Reuters
NCDEX Chana November 10 MT (2901)
Trade Recommendation: - Buy in the range 2920-2925 with targets 2980-3000 with a stop loss at 2846.
The call is active.
Comments: - Key support is at 2868. Key resistance is at 2960. A break above could push prices up to
3000.
8
ADMISI Commodity Research
October 13, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Chana (1 MT)
Source: Reuters
NCDEX Chana November 1 MT (2902)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Comments: - Key support is at 2874. Key resistance is at 2950. A break above could push prices to 2980.
Outlook: Delay in planting and declining stocks at the exchange warehouse could support prices.
Uncertainty amongst traders regarding import duty situation could continue to keep prices volatile in the
next few days. Ample supply in the domestic markets could continue to limit upside.
9
ADMISI Commodity Research
October 13, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
DISCLAIMER:
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be
reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to
observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not
soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to
buy any commodity or commodity derivative in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is
for the general information of clients of ADMISI Commodities Private Limited. It does not constitute a personal
recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual
clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be
reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM),
ADM Investor Services International Limited (U.K) nor ADMISI Commodities Private Limited, nor any
person/entity connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material
should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred
to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions
including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities involve
substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a
stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a commodity’s fundamentals and as such, may not
match with a report on a commodity's fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing
on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there
may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are
cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our
investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without ADMISI Commodities Private
Limited prior written consent.
10