Indian Soybean Complex Recap

ADMISI Commodity Research
November 03, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Indian Soybean Complex Recap
NCDEX
Soybean
NOV4
DEC4
JAN5
FEB5
PCP
Close
Open
High
Low
3273
3328
3374
3433
3289
3346
3398
3452
3278
3305
3355
3414
3319
3376
3424
3475
3236
3301
3355
3408
Net
Chg
16
18
24
19
%
Chg
0.49
0.54
0.71
0.55
% Vol
Chg
-34.01
-24.09
-35.05
-59.17
Volume
91270
75100
12970
2360
OI
76270
90450
32230
7670
OI
Chg
740
6300
680
690
Net OI Change = 8410
Spread
Nov-2014
Dec-2014
Jan-2015
NCDEX
Soy oil
NOV4
DEC4
JAN5
FEB5
PCP
Close
Open
Dec-2014
-57
High
Jan-2015
-109
-52
Low
599.1 599.85
598
602.5
596
603.7 607.05 602.5 608.5 602.5
602.25 607.75 601.35 609.8 601.25
603.3 608.6
603
611.45
603
Net
Chg
0.75
3.35
5.5
5.3
Feb-2015
-163
-106
-54
%
Chg
0.13
0.55
0.91
0.88
Volume
53330
49495
12940
1865
% Vol
Chg
-32.29
-33.17
-45.30
48.02
OI
53340
78465
38715
14170
OI
Chg
-14615
6445
3030
-305
Net OI Change = -5140
Spread
Nov-2014
Dec-2014
Jan-2015
Dec-2014
-7.20
Jan-2015
-7.90
-0.70
Feb-2015
-8.75
-1.55
-0.85
Indian RM Seed Recap
NCDEX
RM Seed
NOV4
DEC4
JAN5
PCP
Close Open High
Low
3742
3768
3762
3737
3763
3764
3722
3754
3755
3727
3755
3756
3745
3773
3775
Net.
%
Volume
Chg. Chg
-5
-0.13 14240
-5
-0.13
6330
2
0.05
1320
% Vol.
Chg.
-35.59
-47.82
-60.95
OI
27870
22420
5990
OI
Chg.
-630
730
-50
Net OI Change = 50
Spread
Nov-2014
Dec-2014
Dec-2014
-26
Jan-2015
-27
-1
1
ADMISI Commodity Research
November 03, 2014
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Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Indian Soybean and Soy oil moved higher on Friday, tracking gains in the international markets.
The Rupee appreciated on Friday and limited upside in soy oil.
RM Seed ended flat on Friday.
Traders estimate this year’s crop between 9 – 10 million MT.
According to 1st Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is
estimated at - 11.82 million MT.
Soy meal exports from India fell to 868 MT in September from 2,778 MT in August. India's oil
meal exports in September 2014 were 82K MT vs. 136K MT in previous month.
According to SEA, India's vegetable oil imports in September were 1.01 million MT from 1.32
million MT in August.
Soybean - Akola
Soybean - Nagpur
Soybean - Indore
Soybean - Kota
TOTAL Soybean
NCDEX Warehouse Inventory
29-Oct-14
0
0
91
NA
91
RM Seed - Alwar
RM Seed - Jaipur
RM Seed - Kota
RM Seed - Sri Ganganagar
RM Seed - Bikaner
RM Seed - Hapur
RM Seed - Bharatpur
TOTAL RM Seed
Date
28-Oct-14
28-Oct-14
28-Oct-14
28-Oct-14
28-Oct-14
28-Oct-14
28-Oct-14
28-Oct-14
28-Oct-14
28-Oct-14
28-Oct-14
28-Oct-14
India Physical Market Rates
Commodity
Soybean - Indore - NCDEX
Soybean - Kota - NCDEX
Soybean - Nagpur - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Indore - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Mumbai - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Nagpur - NCDEX
Soybean meal Export - Kandla - NCDEX
Soybean meal - Indore - NCDEX
Soy meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA
Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA
Mustard Seed - Jaipur - NCDEX
Mustard oil - Sri Ganganagar - NCDEX
301
872
583
111
414
30
20
2331
Rate
3237.00
3150.00
3400.00
607.60
610.00
618.00
29850.00
28725.00
485.00
240.00
3716.45
701.25
31-Oct-14
0
0
427
0
427
301
171
603
81
414
30
20
1620
Units
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / MT
Rs. / MT
USD / MT
USD / MT
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
2
ADMISI Commodity Research
November 03, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Market Arrivals of Soybean (Source - Dept. of Agriculture GoI)
Soybean Arrivals for 31 October 2014 in MT
Gandai
10.00
Kheragarh
108.40
Kodinar
1.80
Bidar
20.00
Dharwar
5.00
Gulbarga
10.00
Kalagategi
5.00
Nippani
3.00
Sankeshwar
91.00
Agar
1800.00
Akodia
2937.00
Ashoknagar
1350.00
Ashta
2226.40
Badnagar
13981.00
Badod
176.50
Bamora
142.00
Banapura
160.50
Banda
4.00
Bankhedi
1.10
Berachha
116.80
Betul
286.00
Biaora
669.09
Bina
367.50
Binaganj
124.47
Burhanpur
110.00
Chhapiheda
123.00
Chhatarpur
15.00
Deori
54.00
Dewas
2831.70
Dhar
1212.80
Gairatganj
11.80
Gautampura
21.50
Gorakhpur
50.00
Gotegaon
30.40
Ichhawar
151.50
Indore
1990.70
Itarsi
470.80
Jabalpur
14.10
Jaora
669.80
Javad
1.60
Jeerapur
43.40
Jhabua
6.20
Kalapipal
3113.00
Kareli
73.70
Khargone
156.80
Khategaon
1892.53
Khirakiya
513.70
Khujner
189.20
Khurai
212.40
3
ADMISI Commodity Research
November 03, 2014
Kumbhraj
Lashkar
Lateri
Machalpur
Mahidpur
Manawar
Nagda
Nalkehda
Narsinghgarh
Neemuch
Obedullaganj
Pandhana
Patharia
Rahatgarh
Rajgarh
Ratlam
Rehati
Rewa
Sagar
Sailana
Sanawad
Sanwer
Sendhwa
Seoni
Shahpura
Shamshabad
Sheopurkalan
Shujalpur
Sonkatch
Taal
Tarana
Timarni
Udaipura
Vijaypur
Ahmedpur
Akole
Ausa
Deoulgaon Raja
Nagpur
Shrirampur
Umarga
Wardha
Bhilwara
Chhabra
Khanpur
Kota
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
99.20
4.00
142.00
40.00
1372.07
20.00
557.10
3563.00
383.50
300.00
11.20
253.20
281.00
41.50
263.70
1128.60
50.00
42.00
866.30
10.50
101.70
540.70
9.10
7.50
1.40
180.50
44.60
10511.80
216.60
441.84
1668.00
136.50
79.00
20.00
37.50
5.80
71.40
54.30
40.70
4.20
4.00
60.60
2.60
120.00
75.00
1252.00
4
ADMISI Commodity Research
November 03, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
International Markets Recap
CBOT
Soybean
NOV4
JAN5
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
Previous
Close
Open
1024.25
1029.75
1036
1042.5
1048.25
1046.5
1049.25
1053.25
1058
1062.75
1023
1028.25
1034.25
1040.75
1047.25
CBOT Soy
meal
DEC4
JAN5
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
CBOT Soy
oil
DEC4
JAN5
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5





High
Low
1052.25 1012.25
1054
1016.5
1058.25
1023
1062.75 1029.75
1067.25
1035
Net Chg
% Chg.
22.25
19.50
17.25
15.50
14.50
2.13
1.86
1.64
1.47
1.36
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
Net Chg
% Chg.
380
361.1
342.5
338
338.7
389
366.7
346.2
340.9
341.7
380.6
360.5
343
338
339.1
394.7
371
349.5
344.3
344.9
375.4
354.7
337.3
333.5
334.5
9
5.6
3.7
2.9
3
2.31
1.53
1.07
0.85
0.88
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
Net Chg
% Chg.
34.31
34.54
34.78
34.98
35.2
34.8
35.02
35.24
35.44
35.66
34.3
34.55
34.84
34.94
35.18
34.95
35.16
35.39
36.1
35.77
34.01
34.25
34.49
34.65
34.86
0.49
0.48
0.46
0.46
0.46
1.41
1.37
1.31
1.30
1.29
CBOT U.S. Soy complex ended higher on Friday buoyed by a slow start to a record harvest and
traffic congestion problems on the country's railroads.
Record U.S. soybean harvests have boosted demand for hopper cars already in short supply, while
rail traffic has slowed on tracks clogged with tankers hauling oil produced from fields in the
northern U.S. Plains and Canada.
Prices were also influenced after surges in U.S. export sales. Soybeans are mostly used to
manufacture vegetable oil and to feed hogs and chickens.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that some 1.3 million MT of soybeans from the
current crop year were sold overseas in the week ended Oct. 23, with China the largest buyer.
According to CFTC CoT report, funds bought an estimated 16,000 CBOT soybean contracts,
8,000 soy meal contracts.
5
ADMISI Commodity Research
November 03, 2014
Date
3-Nov-14
1-Nov-14
31-Oct-14
1-Nov-14
Date
3-Nov-14
1-Nov-14
31-Oct-14
Date
3-Nov-14
1-Nov-14
31-Oct-14
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Physical Market Rates - Soybean
Commodity
Brazil Soybean October - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soybean April/May - FOB Up River
China Imported Soybean Dalian
USA Soybean November - FOB Gulf
Rate
464.11
410.64
3700.00
445.10
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
$ / MT
Physical Market Rates - Soy meal
Commodity
Brazil Soy meal October - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soy meal November - FOB Up River
China HQ Soy meal Dalian
Rate
466.30
469.03
3780.00
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
Physical Market Rates - Soy Oil
Commodity
Brazil Soy Oil October - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soy Oil November - FOB Up River
China Standard Soy Oil Dalian
Rate
795.90
800.28
6050.00
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
Weather
Source: IMD
6
ADMISI Commodity Research
November 03, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Charts & Outlook
NCDEX
Source: Reuters
NCDEX Soybean December (3346)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support is at 3241. Key resistance is at 3411.
Source: Reuters
NCDEX Soy Oil December (607.05)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support is at 597.80. Key resistance is at 613.50.
7
ADMISI Commodity Research
November 03, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Source: Reuters
NCDEX RM Seed December (3763)
Trade Recommendation: - Buy above 3715, S/L 3695, TGT 3760 - 3795. Book profits.
Key support for RM Seed is at 3750. Key resistance is at 3800.
Indian Outlook: Soybean and Soy oil could trade range bound. Soybean chart is overbought and could
witness some profit booking. Weak rupee could cap downside of soy oil prices. RM Seed prices could
trade weak.
CBOT
Source: Reuters
CBOT Soybean January (1043.00)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support is at 1019.75. Key resistances are 1060.75.
8
ADMISI Commodity Research
November 03, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Source: Reuters
CBOT Soy meal December (379.4)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support is at 374.7. Key resistance is at 399.0.
Source: Reuters
CBOT Soy oil December (34.52)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support is at 34.45. Key resistance is at 34.93.
Outlook: Soybean and Soy oil could trade range bound to firm as slower than expected harvest could
support prices. However favorable weather in Brazil to help the planting of the soybean crop and dry
weather in the U.S. allows its harvest to progress, could cap upside.
9
ADMISI Commodity Research
November 03, 2014
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
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