Feb 16, 2015 - Moneycontrol

ADMISI Commodity Research
February 16, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Indian Soybean Complex Recap
NCDEX
Soybean
FEB5
APR5
JUN5
AUG5
PCP
Close
Open
High
Low
3396
3374
3394
3405
3414
3394
3411
3420
3413
3392
3416
3416
3418
3418
3430
3437
3403
3385
3404
3413
Net
Chg
18
20
17
15
%
Chg
0.53
0.59
0.50
0.44
Volume
1550
28360
10550
650
% Vol
Chg
-34.87
-16.71
-23.94
-68.29
OI
13850
80310
27870
2680
OI
Chg
-1090
-1050
-1290
-190
Net OI Change = -3620
Spread
Feb-2015
Apr-2015
Jun-2015
NCDEX
Soy oil
FEB5
APR5
JUN5
AUG5
Apr-2015
20
Jun-2015
3
-17
PCP
Close
Open
High
Low
615.95
594.80
581.60
582.60
619.10
604.80
586.85
584.40
616.65
596.80
582.80
583.80
619.60
605.90
587.30
586.00
612.50
596.60
580.20
577.10
Net
Chg
3.15
10.00
5.25
1.80
Aug-2015
-6
-26
-9
%
Chg
0.51
1.68
0.90
0.31
Volume
7880
55155
19485
4855
% Vol
Chg
9.37
28.31
0.26
145.20
OI
7645
104665
77550
29820
OI
Chg
-4145
1520
2500
-1380
Net OI Change = -1505
Spread
Feb-2015
Apr-2015
Jun-2015
Apr-2015
14.30
Jun-2015
32.25
17.95
Aug-2015
34.70
20.40
2.45
Indian RM Seed Recap
NCDEX
RM Seed
APR5
MAY5
JUN5
JUL5
PCP
Close Open High
Low
3311
3348
3384
3435
3342
3375
3412
3451
3318
3354
3396
3444
3320
3355
3400
3444
3354
3389
3427
3465
Net.
Chg.
31
27
28
16
%
Chg
0.94
0.81
0.83
0.47
Volume
41350
8340
1450
150
% Vol.
Chg.
72.51
49.19
52.63
1400.00
OI
47910
13730
5290
650
OI
Chg.
2290
1300
500
-40
Net OI Change = 4050
Spread
Apr-2015
May-2015
Jun-2015
May-2015
-33
Jun-2015
-70
-37
Jul-2015
-109
-76
-39
1
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 16, 2015
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Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Indian soybean futures tracked overseas prices and moved higher on Friday.
Soy oil futures were also higher tracking firm cues from Malaysian palm oil and CBOT soy oil
futures.
RM Seed prices ends with solid gains on Friday, tracking firm overseas prices.
India's palm oil imports in January dropped more than a fifth from a month earlier to 658,670
MT as refiner’s increased overseas purchases of sunflower and soy oil, data from the Solvent
Extractors' Association of India (SEA) showed on Friday.
Soy oil imports could rise even in February from Brazil and Argentina due to a fall in crushing of
local soybean crop, giving support to global prices.
The country's soy oil imports in January surged 131% from a month earlier to 224,430 MT, while
sunflower oil imports rose 3 percent to 155,811 MT, data from SEA showed.
The country's oil meal exports in January fell 63% from a year ago to 159,892 MT as soy meal
shipments plunged 71% to 104,426 MT, the SEA said in a statement.
Indian RM Seed output in 2014-15 may be 7.0 million MT vs. 7.4 million MT in the previous year.
Traders estimate this year’s Soybean crop between 9 – 10 million MT.
USDA estimates Indian Soybean crop at 11.0 million MT. COOIT expects Indian Soy crop at 9.17
million MT.
According to 1st Advance estimates for 2014-15 released by GoI, India’s output for Soybean is
estimated at 11.82 million MT.
NCDEX Warehouse Inventory
12-Feb-15
Soybean - Akola
232
Soybean - Indore
272
TOTAL SOYBEAN
504
Date
13-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
India Physical Market Rates
Commodity
Soybean - Indore - NCDEX
Soybean - Kota - NCDEX
Soybean - Nagpur - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Indore - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Mumbai - NCDEX
Refined Soy oil - Nagpur - NCDEX
Soybean meal Export - Kandla - NCDEX
Soybean meal - Indore - NCDEX
Soy meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA
Mustard meal Export Kandla FAS - SEA
Mustard Seed - Jaipur - NCDEX
Mustard oil - Sri Ganganagar - NCDEX
13-Feb-15
232
272
504
Rate
3385.00
3217.50
3417.00
620.25
611.00
630.50
29275.00
28600.00
465.00
260.00
3503.40
700.00
Units
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
Rs. / MT
Rs. / MT
USD / MT
USD / MT
Rs. / 100 Kg
Rs. / 10 Kg
2
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 16, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Market Arrivals of Soybean (Source - Dept. of Agriculture GoI)
Soybean Arrivals for 13 February 2015 in MT
Dongargaon
217.50
Munguli
9.80
Rajnandgaon
5.50
Dahod
37.50
Gondal
2.80
Junagadh
2.30
Modasa
6.50
Bhalki
5.00
Bidar
10.00
Dharwar
8.00
Gulbarga
5.00
Kalagategi
29.00
A lot
19.82
Agar
105.00
Akodia
550.00
Ashta
313.90
Badnawar
500.00
Badod
5.30
Badwaha
3.60
Bamora
7.40
Banapura
82.10
Begamganj
14.80
Betul
233.80
Bhikangaon
52.50
Burhanpur
3.90
Dewas
654.10
Dhar
419.80
Ganjbasoda
123.70
Haatpipliya
18.69
Harsood
18.20
Ichhawar
2.00
Indore
608.80
Jeerapur
5.70
Kalapipal
53.03
Kannod
65.00
Khachrod
50.00
Khategaon
315.31
Khatora
2.00
Khirakiya
123.50
Kurwai
4.60
Lateri
1.50
Mandsaur
400.00
Momanbadodiya
1.80
Mungawali
3.00
Nagda
31.50
Nalkehda
28.80
Narsinghgarh
1.00
Neemuch
209.10
Niwadi
3.00
Pachaur
126.80
Patharia
27.00
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ADMISI Commodity Research
February 16, 2015
Piplya
Ratlam
Sagar
Sailana
Sanawad
Sarangpur
Sendhwa
Seoni
Shamshabad
Shujalpur
Sitmau
Sonkatch
Taal
Udaipura
Ujjain
Akola
Akole
Anajngaon
Ausa
Bhokar
Chalisgaon
Chandrapur
Chikali
Deoulgaon Raja
Gondpimpri
Hingoli
Jalana
Kalamb
Kalmeshwar
Katol
Kille Dharur
Kopargaon
Latur
Mehekar
Nagpur
Nanggaon
Pandhakawada
Parali Vaijyanath
Parbhani
Sangamner
Savner
Shahada
Sindi
Udgir
Umarga
Anta
Baran
Bhawani Mandi
Chhabra
Khanpur
Adilabad
Lalitpur
Haldwani
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
4.90
185.00
128.70
400.00
3.60
7.10
2.00
9.00
5.90
1444.45
2.50
67.20
47.86
1.20
322.30
190.00
10.00
45.00
22.00
4.00
2.00
12.00
105.00
3.00
50.00
53.00
38.00
24.00
5.00
38.00
15.00
1.00
309.00
76.00
1.00
47.00
2.00
21.00
5.00
1.00
6.00
3.00
4.00
9.00
8.00
1.80
21.20
278.00
88.50
25.00
8.20
155.00
18.40
4
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 16, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
International Markets Recap
CBOT
Soybean
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
Net Chg
% Chg.
983.75
986.75
991.50
990.75
975.25
990.50
994.75
1000.00
999.25
983.00
982.75
986.00
991.00
992.00
974.75
997.75
1001.00
1006.00
1005.00
988.25
982.75
985.75
990.75
992.00
974.75
6.75
8.00
8.50
8.50
7.75
0.68
0.80
0.85
0.85
0.79
CBOT Soy
meal
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5
CBOT Soy
oil
MAR5
MAY5
JUL5
AUG5
SEP5





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Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
Net Chg
% Chg.
330.5
323.7
321.4
320.6
319.0
332.3
326.0
323.6
322.7
321.0
330.3
323.7
321.4
323.0
321.5
335.6
328.7
326.0
325.0
323.3
330.3
323.7
321.4
322.0
320.5
1.8
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
0.54
0.71
0.68
0.65
0.62
Previous
Close
Open
High
Low
Net Chg
% Chg.
32.01
32.20
32.38
32.43
32.38
32.40
32.59
32.76
32.81
32.76
31.94
32.19
32.35
32.50
32.54
32.58
32.75
32.92
32.91
32.84
31.87
32.06
32.24
32.29
32.24
0.39
0.39
0.38
0.38
0.38
1.20
1.20
1.16
1.16
1.16
U.S. soybean futures rose on Friday as demand for U.S. stocks of the oilseed remained strong
while overseas buyers waited for supplies from the South American harvest to hit the market.
U.S. soybean processors likely maintained a healthy crushing pace during January as they
scrambled to keep up with surging domestic demand.
Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Presidents Day holiday.
Brazil's 2014-15 soybean crop is now 38% sold, up from 32% a month ago, but well behind the
58% sold at this time last year, local analysts Safras e Mercado said on Friday.
Safras expects a record 95-million MT crop, one of the highest estimates among private analysts.
The average pace for sales this time of year is 54%, Safras added.
Additionally, Brazil's government crop supply agency Conab cut its forecast for the 2014/15
soybean crop now being harvested to 94.6 million MT on Thursday from 95.9 million MT seen in
January, citing damage caused by dry weather. The agency said Brazil would likely export 47.8
million MT of the soybean crop, down from 49.6 million MT seen last month.
ICE Canada canola futures rose on Friday, following the firmer trend in U.S. soybeans and soy
oil.
5
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 16, 2015
Date
16-Feb-15
14-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
14-Feb-15
Date
16-Feb-15
14-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
Date
16-Feb-15
14-Feb-15
13-Feb-15
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Physical Market Rates - Soybean
Commodity
Brazil Soybean February - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soybean May - FOB Up River
China Imported Soybean Dalian
USA Soybean February - FOB Gulf
Rate
384.65
375.00
3200.00
402.50
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
$ / MT
Physical Market Rates - Soy meal
Commodity
Brazil Soy meal February - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soy meal March - FOB Up River
China HQ Soy meal Dalian
Rate
378.40
408.73
3180.00
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
Physical Market Rates - Soy Oil
Commodity
Brazil Soy Oil February - FOB Paranagua
Argentina Soy Oil March - FOB Up River
China Standard Soy Oil Dalian
Rate
749.60
741.86
5570.00
Units
$ / MT
$ / MT
CNY / MT
Weather
Source: IMD
6
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 16, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Charts & Outlook
NCDEX
Source: Reuters
NCDEX Soybean April (3394)
Trade Recommendation: - None.
Key support is at 3378. Key resistance is 3436.
Source: Reuters
NCDEX Soy Oil April (604.8)
Trade Recommendation: - Buy above 595, S/L 591.50, TGT 602. The call is active.
Key support is at 594.75. Key resistance is at 608.55.
7
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 16, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
Source: Reuters
NCDEX RM Seed April (3342)
Trade Recommendation: - Buy above 3300, S/L 3268, TGT 3348 - 3375. The call is active.
Key support for RM Seed is at 3299. Key resistances are at 3378.
Indian Outlook: Soybean could trade firm supported by firm overseas prices. Rupee has appreciated
today and could support soy oil prices. RM Seed prices could trade firm tracking firm overseas prices.
Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Presidents Day holiday.
8
ADMISI Commodity Research
February 16, 2015
Sriram V. Iyer: [email protected]
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