Oil & Oilseed Report Domestic Market Update 09

Oil & Oilseed Report
09th October 2014
Domestic Market Update
In the domestic markets, soybean futures ended the session a tad higher. Arrivals remained limited as many mandis
in the spot market remained closed which added support to the sentiments. The overall bias still remains bearish for
soybean while soya oil will trade in a tight range. Expectation of government announcement on hike of import duty
is keeping the downside restricted. Heavy imports over the last few months have raised concerns over the
profitability of the Indian refining industry. Few important data to be released tomorrow shall also play a pivotal role
in governing the price trend. Malaysian stock and production monthly data in the morning followed by the monthly
USDA data, both of which are expected to be bearish for the prices.
International Market Update
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures fell on Wednesday on huge production expectations for the United States.
Some long corn/short soybean spreading also weighed on soy prices. Forecasts for more rain that will likely cause
delays to harvest in southeastern growing areas limited the declines. Crop forecaster Lanworth raised its forecasts
for U.S. soybean production to 3.947 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 47.9 bushels per acre. Soy meal
futures and soyoil futures also closed mostly lower, although the October soy meal contract edged higher on shortcovering ahead of its expiration next week. Both soy meal and soy oil futures were pressured by light demand. Most
end users were waiting to see if prices would fall farther when harvest picks up before committing to new deals.
1 | www.nirmalbang.com
Oil & Oilseed Report
09th October 2014
Domestic Market Watch
Soybean NCDEX
Name
Open
High
Low
Close
Volume
3025
%
Change
0.73
SYBEANIDR OCT
3005
3030
2985
SYBEANIDR NOV
2974
2990
2950
SYBEANIDR DEC
2999
3018
2983
38160
% Change
Volume
-45.64
Open
Interest
39970
% Change
OI
-14.58
2984
0.74
70820
8.44
117730
4.77
3010
0.60
11130
-40.39
51660
-0.63
Volume
26780
% Change
Volume
-26.24
Open
Interest
47165
% Change
OI
-13.20
Soy Oil NCDEX
Name
Open
High
Low
Close
SYOREFIDR OCT
608
609.2
606
606.95
%
Change
-0.09
SYOREFIDR NOV
595
595.9
591
592.95
-0.30
52775
48.43
104535
-1.68
SYOREFIDR DEC
590.5
592.5
587.2
589.8
-0.03
10895
2.49
65970
4.68
Volume
968
% Change
Volume
-47.33
Open
Interest
3599
% Change
OI
-8.56
CPO MCX
Name
Open
High
Low
Close
CPO OCT
455.5
461
455.5
456.6
%
Change
-0.74
CPO NOV
457.1
457.7
452.8
454.6
-0.46
868
3.95
2834
1.76
CPO DEC
457
458.3
452
454.7
-0.42
339
-34.56
1173
19.69
Spread Matrix
Soy oil NCDEX
Soybean NCDEX
October
November
Spot
20
61
35
October
0
41
15
-41
0
-26
-15
26
0
November
December
October
November
December
Spot
10.8
24.8
27.95
October
0
14
17.15
November
-14
0
3.15
December
-17.15
-3.15
0
December
Stocks & Arrivals
State
Qty in Tons
MP
556.02
Maharashtra
231.8
Rajasthan
383.7
Gujarat
12
Source: APMC
2 | www.nirmalbang.com
Location
Dematted
Stock(MT)
Qty in Process
(MT)
Akola
0
0
Nagpur
0
0
Sagar
0
0
Indore
0
0
Source: NCDEX
Oil & Oilseed Report
09th October 2014
Market Analysis
Soy Oil Parity
Soybean Crush Margins
Particulars
Spot
Soybean per ton
30450
Crushing expense
1050
Cost
31500
Solvent Price
571
DOC Ex Indore
26800
Oil Share
10278
Meal Share
22110
Realization
32388
Gross Crush Margins ($/ton)
31.73
USD/INR
61.085
Particulars
Argentina FOB
783.09
Insurance @1%
7.8309
CIF
845.92
61.085
Currency USD/INR
Convert ($ to Rs)
51,673
Landing charges
800
Landed Cost at Indian Port (Rs/10kg)
525
Refining Charges
22
Freight to Indore
20
Indore Soy oil inc VAT@5%
595
International Market Watch
Soybean CBOT
Name
Open
High
Low
Close
% Change
SOYBEANS NOV
939
949.75
926.5
935
-0.61
84
SOYBEANS JAN
947.25
958
935
943.5
-0.61
37
SOYBEANS MAR
954.75
966
943.5
952
-0.60
92
Soy Oil CBOT
Name
Open
High
Low
Close
% Change
SOYBEAN OIL OCT
32.9
32.96
32.73
32.88
-0.24
2
SOYBEAN OIL DEC
33.19
33.27
32.82
33.02
-0.24
60
SOYBEAN OIL JAN
33.45
33.52
33.09
33.3
-0.21
28
Crude Palm Oil BMD
Name
CRUDE PALM OIL OCT
CRUDE PALM OIL NOV
CRUDE PALM OIL DEC
Open
High
Low
Close
% Change
2225
2193
2225
2223
2220
2193
2220
2213
0.82
0.82
11
2180
2209
2178
2195
0.69
44
3 | www.nirmalbang.com
Oil & Oilseed Report
09th October 2014
RESEARCH TEAM
Name
Kunal Shah
Devidas Rajadhikary
Harshal Mehta
Mohammed Azeem
Ankita Parekh
Somya Dixit
Ravi D’souza
Sakina Mandsaurwala
Ishwar Kelwadkar
Designation
Head of Research
Sr. Technical Analyst
Sr. Technical Analyst
Technical Analyst
Research Analyst
Research Analyst
Research Associate
Research Associate
Research Associate
E-mail
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Disclaimer: This Document has been prepared by N.B. Commodity Research (A Division of Nirmal Bang Commodities
Pvt. Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on N.B. Commodities Research assessment
and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient
only. This document, at best, represents N.B. Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only.
N.B. Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way be responsible for the contents stated
herein. N.B. Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or
omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any
securities. N.B. Commodities Research, its affiliates and their employees may from time to time hold positions in
securities referred to herein. N.B. Commodities Research or its affiliates may from time to time solicit from or perform
investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document.
Address: Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt. Ltd., B2, 301 / 302, 3rd Floor, Marathon Innova, Opp. Peninsula Corporate Park,
Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai - 400 013, India
4 | www.nirmalbang.com